150 was always unrealistic, a 40 to 60 Boris majority more realistic.
Tories 350, Labour 185, SNP 50, LDs 45 is a plausible next general election scenario
This would require a pact with Farage, Absent this unlikely event, a wafer thin majority is Johnson's most positive realistic outcome in a snap autumn election. Ergo he will not do it unless forced. And he will only be forced (via VONC) if he tries to ram through No Deal on 31 Oct. Which means he will not try and do that. An extension into 2020 is thus inevitable. Buy some time to try and pass the WA. If he succeeds, a 2020 GE follows tout de suite on the back of that 'triumph'. And forget my inverted commas there, because it would be a triumph. It would be a political achievement of the first order. And if he fails, a 2020 GE happens anyway as a last resort to break the impasse. So says the logic.
150 was always unrealistic, a 40 to 60 Boris majority more realistic.
Tories 350, Labour 185, SNP 50, LDs 45 is a plausible next general election scenario
This would require a pact with Farage, Absent this unlikely event, a wafer thin majority is Johnson's most positive realistic outcome in a snap autumn election. Ergo he will not do it unless forced. And he will only be forced (via VONC) if he tries to ram through No Deal on 31 Oct. Which means he will not try and do that. An extension into 2020 is thus inevitable. Buy some time to try and pass the WA. If he succeeds, a 2020 GE follows tout de suite on the back of that 'triumph'. And forget my inverted commas there, because it would be a triumph. It would be a political achievement of the first order. And if he fails, a 2020 GE happens anyway as a last resort to break the impasse. So says the logic.
But if he manages to pass the WA the DUP will immediately VONC the government
No, but we all know simply from comments here that some vote not for the candidate close to their views with the best chance of winning, but because candidate x must be stopped even if it means voting for some party and candidate they think are awful.
That's fair enough, people can vote for whatever reason they like, but there are those who criticise people who dont make a calculation to pick the candidate with a best chance of beating candidate x. I dont mean to pick on the guy, but I never forget the time (though the details I am sketchy on) that Dr Palmer used the word betrayal to describe the lds standing in a by election they had no hope in, in the context of betraying the anti tory vote...by giving people the opportunity to vote for who they wanted.
I don't think so - the LibDems stand pretty much everywhere, so I wouldn't think of it as betrayal, and it's not a term I usually use anyway. I do remember being a bit irritated about the 2010 Green candidate in Broxtowe, who stood against me and probably was a factor in the narrow Tory win, and who THEN joined the Labour Party. To this day I have no idea what he was thinking, as he didn't seem to have anything against me personally. Given that the Greens were championing tactical voting at the time, it seemed very odd.
Typical Labour - all take and no give, and taking things personally when someone wants to stand for their own party. Labour promised to change the voting system and then didn't - that was the betrayal.
At least the LibDems stood down in Brighton and Skipton last time, and will surely offer the Greens a better deal this time.
What did Labour ever offer?
I respected Corbyn for not standing aside in Brighton. It was a seat theyd like to win and it doesnt belong to Lucas.
Well, I agree with that. There might be Labour/Green deals to do but Brighton Pavilion was a Labour seat the Greens gained, and Labour remain the main alternative.
But there are plenty of areas where Labour has no chance but the Greens have a bit of a local authority base and plausible candidate. The blanket NEVER approach is tribal... and it appears did for Mr Palmer by his account.
One point to bear in mind - if a party does not put up a candidate as part of a formal or informal agreement, it will lose a free election mailshot in the constituency worth c.£25-30,000. For smaller parties that could be a major element in bringing them to the voting public's attention.
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Or maybe the seat was lost anyway and his misdemeanour provides a handy excuse.
But IMO they will make noise (as ever) but will not collapse him.