Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs overturn the Tory 19.5% majority to win the Brecon and

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited August 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs overturn the Tory 19.5% majority to win the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

Brecon & Radnorshire, result:

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Swinson bounce 1, Boris bounce nil.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Not a disaster for Boris, clear message to Brexit Party voters that they handed the seat to an ultra remain party set on ignoring the referendum result
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Official Loony defeats Loony UKIP .... :smiley:

    Good morning ....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2019
    Congratulations to the LDs. Tory majority in HoC down to one.

    211 women MPs, the highest ever.
  • Wonder if it was postal votes while May was PM what lost it?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Any sort of BXP Tory deal will lead to a huge mandate. LDs just over the line with green and plaid standing aside in a seat they held before 2015 with a nice 10% cushion.......
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    edited August 2019
    Very important win for the LDs. Maintains locals and Euro momentum.

    Tories need to get BXP down to 5% or so to regain the seat. Is that doable?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    The 1.4% Lab --> Con swing bodes well for an overall majority. I know my swingback theory.

    More seriously, a decent result for both the parties in contention, though obviously the Lib Dems will be happier. Congratulations to them.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2019
    Remain/Leave was about 50/50, so a slight movement to Remain compared to the referendum; was 52% Leave in 2017.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Very important win for the LDs. Maintains locals and Euro momentum.

    Tories need to get BXP down to 5% or so to regain the seat. Is that doable?

    Farage will cut a deal with Boris to secure Brexit. So yes I think
  • Very important win for the LDs. Maintains locals and Euro momentum.

    Tories need to get BXP down to 5% or so to regain the seat. Is that doable?

    Yes.

    Will it be done is another question but it is doable.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited August 2019
    Slightly disappointing for Remain.

    Leaver parties just pipped Remain parties.
    Lib Dems only 4.5% ahead of the Tories.

    Still, a win’s a win.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Wonder if it was postal votes while May was PM what lost it?

    Or Boris repelling female voters (for which there is some polling evidence).
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Dont forget if the remain alliance doesn't hold, the greens and Plaid will eat into the LD vote here...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    A brilliant personal triumph for Boris Johnson and a ringing endorsement of No Deal Brexit.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Lots of people will find something to like in that result.

    Terrible if you're a Labour Leaver or Ambiguist, and you know you'll have a weaker position to defend next time you have an argument with a Labour Rescind or Ref backer.

    Awful if you're a UKIP headbanger - even the fact Brexity parties got over 50% would be scant consolation if you're that much into the Tommy Robinson flavour of Brexit and that looks increasingly electorally out of reach.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    The 1.4% Lab --> Con swing bodes well for an overall majority. I know my swingback theory.

    More seriously, a decent result for both the parties in contention, though obviously the Lib Dems will be happier. Congratulations to them.

    Major threat to LibDems here is that far fewer Labour voters will vote tactically at a General Election - as proved to be the case at Richmond in 2017 when Zac Goldsmith narrowly regained the seat.
  • Very important win for the LDs. Maintains locals and Euro momentum.

    Tories need to get BXP down to 5% or so to regain the seat. Is that doable?

    Farage will cut a deal with Boris to secure Brexit. So yes I think

    On that result, the Tories don’t need a deal.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2019

    Swinson bounce 1, Boris bounce nil.

    A poll 10 days ago gave the LDs a 15% lead in Brecon and Radnor, they beat the Tories by just 4.5% tonight so Boris bounce is real. Plus even on Mori and Yougov polls giving a Tory majority the LDs would have won Brecon

    https://leftfootforward.org/2019/07/polling-shows-lib-dem-lead-in-brecon-by-election/
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Very important win for the LDs. Maintains locals and Euro momentum.

    Tories need to get BXP down to 5% or so to regain the seat. Is that doable?

    Farage will cut a deal with Boris to secure Brexit. So yes I think

    On that result, the Tories don’t need a deal.

    They will cut one anyway I think. Boris sees a chance to destroy labour and set up LD as opposition, a party, brexit aside, hes not a million miles from
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Tory majority now down to 1.

    But really 5 if you assume Elphicke and Hermon would vote with government in a VONC.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Tory majority now down to 1.

    But really 5 if you assume Elphicke and Hermon would vote with government in a VONC.

    Some of the indies would also either abstain or back the govt I think.
  • HYUFD said:

    Swinson bounce 1, Boris bounce nil.

    A poll 10 days ago gave the LDs a 15% lead in Brecon and Radnor, they beat the Tories by just 4.5% tonight so Boris bounce is real. Plus even on Mori and Yougov polls giving a Tory majority the LDs would have won Brecon

    https://leftfootforward.org/2019/07/polling-shows-lib-dem-lead-in-brecon-by-election/

    To be fair that poll was pre-Johnson and it got the LD result spot on. So clearly there was a big post-Johnson election move to the Tories.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    It’s obviously not great for the Tories although it wasn’t a humiliation.

    I’d say if anything it is worse for Labour as they have demonstrated they are very vulnerable to a squeeze
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Tory majority now down to 1.

    But really 5 if you assume Elphicke and Hermon would vote with government in a VONC.

    Some of the indies would also either abstain or back the govt I think.
    Not sure. Don’t think the Tiggers would.
    Maybe Frank Field would.
  • The other lesson that the result teaches is that people are very prepared to vote tactically.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Tory majority now down to 1.

    But really 5 if you assume Elphicke and Hermon would vote with government in a VONC.

    Some of the indies would also either abstain or back the govt I think.
    It's over to Grieve, Clarke, Sandbach, etc.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited August 2019
    Charles said:

    It’s obviously not great for the Tories although it wasn’t a humiliation.

    I’d say if anything it is worse for Labour as they have demonstrated they are very vulnerable to a squeeze

    But only in seats where Labour is a distant third. Overall this is rather an underwhelming result for the LibDems given earlier expectations.
  • Very important win for the LDs. Maintains locals and Euro momentum.

    Tories need to get BXP down to 5% or so to regain the seat. Is that doable?

    Farage will cut a deal with Boris to secure Brexit. So yes I think

    On that result, the Tories don’t need a deal.

    They will cut one anyway I think. Boris sees a chance to destroy labour and set up LD as opposition, a party, brexit aside, hes not a million miles from

    Where will the Tories stand aside?

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Tory majority now down to 1.

    But really 5 if you assume Elphicke and Hermon would vote with government in a VONC.

    Some of the indies would also either abstain or back the govt I think.
    Not sure. Don’t think the Tiggers would.
    Maybe Frank Field would.
    Abstaining must be a possibility for some, they are out of a job if it goes to GE.
    The pro Brexit indies are likely govt backers in a VONC certainly
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Tory majority now down to 1.

    But really 5 if you assume Elphicke and Hermon would vote with government in a VONC.

    Some of the indies would also either abstain or back the govt I think.
    Not sure. Don’t think the Tiggers would.
    Maybe Frank Field would.
    Not persuaded that Hermon would back Johnson.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Very important win for the LDs. Maintains locals and Euro momentum.

    Tories need to get BXP down to 5% or so to regain the seat. Is that doable?

    Farage will cut a deal with Boris to secure Brexit. So yes I think

    On that result, the Tories don’t need a deal.

    They will cut one anyway I think. Boris sees a chance to destroy labour and set up LD as opposition, a party, brexit aside, hes not a million miles from

    Where will the Tories stand aside?

    They wont. A handful of joint ticket runners is possible though
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    HYUFD said:

    Swinson bounce 1, Boris bounce nil.

    A poll 10 days ago gave the LDs a 15% lead in Brecon and Radnor, they beat the Tories by just 4.5% tonight so Boris bounce is real. Plus even on Mori and Yougov polls giving a Tory majority the LDs would have won Brecon

    https://leftfootforward.org/2019/07/polling-shows-lib-dem-lead-in-brecon-by-election/

    To be fair that poll was pre-Johnson and it got the LD result spot on. So clearly there was a big post-Johnson election move to the Tories.

    Yes, but as OGH's tweet in the header reminds us, Nigel Farage's parties invariably disappoint at Westminster elections, even when Conservatives were led by May (or indeed Cameron).

    If I were a Tory spinner, I'd be happy with this result, and would point to the BXP squeeze (and whisper about the candidate's shady past). But as a Tory strategist, I'd be worried the gilt is already coming off Boris's gingerbread.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    If I were Tory leader right now, I'd be very interested to know if Farage would give up this stressful politics business. Would he like to be Earl of Boston and Canvey Island and just restrict himself to the odd viral speech as a Lords cross-bencher, once every three months or so perhaps? Would he prefer to spend lots of time in the sun as some vacuous Trade Ambassador Extraordinaire? Or might he only be bought off by a seat at the cabinet table?

    Would obviously be a mistake to assume that TBP voters are all going to vote Tory in a post Brexit election, but also a mistake based on this evidence to think they'd tactically vote Tory in a pre-Brexit election - even if a Tory government was mathematically the only plausible way to achieve Brexit and TBP votes were self-defeating. Would you risk going for an election before October 31? How much better would the odds be if Farage, and quite possibly his party, were to exit the calculus?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Tory MP Phillip Lee to 'spend summer' considering Lib Dem defection

    The former minister says he is "increasingly feeling politically homeless" due to his opposition to a no-deal Brexit."

    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-mp-phillip-lee-to-spend-summer-considering-lib-dem-defection-11774237
  • justin124 said:

    Charles said:

    It’s obviously not great for the Tories although it wasn’t a humiliation.

    I’d say if anything it is worse for Labour as they have demonstrated they are very vulnerable to a squeeze

    But only in seats where Labour is a distant third. Overall this is rather an underwhelming result for the LibDems given earlier expectations.

    It’s a great result for the LDs. It’s just a much better result for the Tories than was expected a fortnight ago. Tories should regain at the GE. If they don’t they’ll be in deep trouble.

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Charles said:

    It’s obviously not great for the Tories although it wasn’t a humiliation.

    I’d say if anything it is worse for Labour as they have demonstrated they are very vulnerable to a squeeze

    But only in seats where Labour is a distant third. Overall this is rather an underwhelming result for the LibDems given earlier expectations.

    It’s a great result for the LDs. It’s just a much better result for the Tories than was expected a fortnight ago. Tories should regain at the GE. If they don’t they’ll be in deep trouble.

    That overstates the LibDem success given that they held this seat for 25 of the last 34 years - particularly as other parties stood aside to help them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Strong as hell result for the Tories. Good for the LDs poor result for Farage and Corbyn

  • They wont. A handful of joint ticket runners is possible though

    Now, that is genius. And something that should've been thought up a long while ago.

    So we can have a few 'Conservative and Brexit' party candidates, much like the 'Lab Co-Op' ones. Brilliant. Strategically brilliant.

  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited August 2019

    Very important win for the LDs. Maintains locals and Euro momentum.

    Tories need to get BXP down to 5% or so to regain the seat. Is that doable?

    Farage will cut a deal with Boris to secure Brexit. So yes I think

    On that result, the Tories don’t need a deal.

    They will cut one anyway I think. Boris sees a chance to destroy labour and set up LD as opposition, a party, brexit aside, hes not a million miles from

    Where will the Tories stand aside?

    Are there many seats where Cons are, or would likely finish, a no-hope third or worse place but big enough to form the wedge between whatever we think TBP might be capable of (based on the referendum result, past UKIP performance at GEs, the Euro elections) and Labour (or the Lib Dems or Nationalists or whoever)? That would be the relatively painless sacrifice but not sure how many seats it really puts into contention. Particularly bearing in mind Farage isn't the ideal figurehead for campaigning in the fabled Northern Labour Leave seats - Lab activists would be quite capable of doing a number on a privately-educated soutberner who wants to sell off the NHS or whatever. Generally what was impervious to UKIP is still likely impervious to TBP even without Tories around.

    If TBP held out for some almost guaranteed seats then there are more direct sacrifices available. If some of the Essex Tory Awkward Hardnut Squad would be willing to give up their seat for a greater cause, for example... (The joint ticket idea might also appeal to them! Indeed over Brexit they hardly count as votes a Tory leader can rely on anyway. But ego is a thing and somewhere a seat surely would need to be found for Farage.)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Good result for the LDs - a wins a win if not quite as emphatic as some had expected given the Remain tactical lack of opposition. Not too bad a result for the Tories given it’s a by-election 9 years into government with a candidate with an unfortunate record. Bad result for BXP and some other party the electorate barely saved the deposit of.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2019
    At the 1985 by-election the Tory share dropped by 20.5% and they were knocked into third place by Labour. The reds were probably boosted on that occasion by the fact that Neil Kinnock had just taken over as Labour leader, and his constituency in Islwyn was very close to Brecon & Radnor.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_Brecon_and_Radnor_by-election#Result
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited August 2019
    Disappointing (especially with the wasted BXP votes), but not the 60% for the LDs predicted much earlier. :D
  • Congrats to the LibDems!

    Maybe if the Tories had a new candidate, they might have retained the seat?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Brexit party won Ystradglanais perhaps :p
  • HYUFD said:

    Swinson bounce 1, Boris bounce nil.

    A poll 10 days ago gave the LDs a 15% lead in Brecon and Radnor, they beat the Tories by just 4.5% tonight so Boris bounce is real. Plus even on Mori and Yougov polls giving a Tory majority the LDs would have won Brecon

    https://leftfootforward.org/2019/07/polling-shows-lib-dem-lead-in-brecon-by-election/
    Tories lost 10% vote-share compared with 2017.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    HYUFD said:

    Swinson bounce 1, Boris bounce nil.

    A poll 10 days ago gave the LDs a 15% lead in Brecon and Radnor, they beat the Tories by just 4.5% tonight so Boris bounce is real. Plus even on Mori and Yougov polls giving a Tory majority the LDs would have won Brecon

    https://leftfootforward.org/2019/07/polling-shows-lib-dem-lead-in-brecon-by-election/
    Tories lost 10% vote-share compared with 2017.
    Tis but a flesh wound!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    RobD said:
    The people replying to that tweet have not considered by election dynamics or the Lab-Con swing that took place imo. This result augurs well for the Tories in a GE
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:
    The people replying to that tweet have not considered by election dynamics or the Lab-Con swing that took place imo. This result augurs well for the Tories in a GE
    Yeah. Bad, but not too bad for the Tories.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_P said:
    Tried our best to wipe them out in 2015, but they are persistent.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    edited August 2019
    Fantastic news. For a Government 9 years into its term running a convicted expenses fraudster as its candidate it was a very strong vote share and that is well worth noting. However in terms of the very tight Commons arithmatic .and narrative - that underneath the initial Boris Bounce - the government is still disintergrating it's a fantastic result.

    It's also a validation of the ' Remain Alliance ' approach without writing the Lib Dems a blank Cheque. The 4.5% winning margin gives Plaid, Greens, Change some leverage to oull the plug. While it's fair to say Labour just experienced classic third party squeeze and we shouldn't read too much into the vote share it helps keep the pressure up on the collapsing Corbyn project.

    Given the very rural nature of the seat and it's parsecs from Remania this is a real boost to sane centrist forces. Well done to everyone on the ground.

    PS The Betfair vote share market was late ooening abd illiquid but I stuck a few quid on LD 40.00% to 44.99% which came in. Winning on results you like is an added bonus.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Fantastic news. For a Government 9 years into its term running a convicted expenses fraudster as its candidate it was a very strong vote share and that is well worth noting. However in terms of the very tight Commons arithmatic .and narrative - that underneath the initial Boris Bounce - the government is still disintergrating it's a fantastic result.

    It's also a validation of the ' Remain Alliance ' approach without writing the Lib Dems a blank Cheque. The 4.5% winning margin gives Pkaid, Greens, Change some leverage to oull the plug. While it's fair to say Labour just experienced classic third party squeeze and we shouldn't read too much into the vote share it helps keep the pressure up on the collapsing Corbyn project.

    Given the very rural nature of the seat and it's parsecs from Remania this is a real boost to sane centrist forces. Well done to everyone on the ground.

    PS The Betfair vote share market was late ooening abd illiquid but I stuck a few quid on LD 40.00% to 44.99% which came in. Winning on results you like is an added bonus.

    Barely winning against a convicted fraudster is a strong result? OK.
  • RobD said:

    Fantastic news. For a Government 9 years into its term running a convicted expenses fraudster as its candidate it was a very strong vote share and that is well worth noting. However in terms of the very tight Commons arithmatic .and narrative - that underneath the initial Boris Bounce - the government is still disintergrating it's a fantastic result.

    It's also a validation of the ' Remain Alliance ' approach without writing the Lib Dems a blank Cheque. The 4.5% winning margin gives Pkaid, Greens, Change some leverage to oull the plug. While it's fair to say Labour just experienced classic third party squeeze and we shouldn't read too much into the vote share it helps keep the pressure up on the collapsing Corbyn project.

    Given the very rural nature of the seat and it's parsecs from Remania this is a real boost to sane centrist forces. Well done to everyone on the ground.

    PS The Betfair vote share market was late ooening abd illiquid but I stuck a few quid on LD 40.00% to 44.99% which came in. Winning on results you like is an added bonus.

    Barely winning against a convicted fraudster is a strong result? OK.
    Maybe if you chose a new candidate you would have retained the seat?

    Just sayin' :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Fantastic news. For a Government 9 years into its term running a convicted expenses fraudster as its candidate it was a very strong vote share and that is well worth noting. However in terms of the very tight Commons arithmatic .and narrative - that underneath the initial Boris Bounce - the government is still disintergrating it's a fantastic result.

    It's also a validation of the ' Remain Alliance ' approach without writing the Lib Dems a blank Cheque. The 4.5% winning margin gives Pkaid, Greens, Change some leverage to oull the plug. While it's fair to say Labour just experienced classic third party squeeze and we shouldn't read too much into the vote share it helps keep the pressure up on the collapsing Corbyn project.

    Given the very rural nature of the seat and it's parsecs from Remania this is a real boost to sane centrist forces. Well done to everyone on the ground.

    PS The Betfair vote share market was late ooening abd illiquid but I stuck a few quid on LD 40.00% to 44.99% which came in. Winning on results you like is an added bonus.

    Barely winning against a convicted fraudster is a strong result? OK.
    Maybe if you chose a new candidate you would have retained the seat?

    Just sayin' :)
    Gotta give the other parties a chance... :p
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    RobD said:

    Barely winning against a convicted fraudster is a strong result? OK.

    A *locally popular* convicted fraudster, who started out with nearly double their vote, at the peak of a new Prime Minister's honeymoon. So yes, strong result.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Barely winning against a convicted fraudster is a strong result? OK.

    A *locally popular* convicted fraudster, who started out with nearly double their vote, at the peak of a new Prime Minister's honeymoon. So yes, strong result.
    What about the LD leader's honeymoon? :smiley:
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    RobD said:



    What about the LD leader's honeymoon? :smiley:

    Do opposition leaders even get a honeymoon? I'm not sure.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    RobD said:



    What about the LD leader's honeymoon? :smiley:

    Do opposition leaders even get a honeymoon? I'm not sure.
    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1153988439940968454?s=20
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    RobD said:



    What about the LD leader's honeymoon? :smiley:

    Do opposition leaders even get a honeymoon? I'm not sure.
    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1153988439940968454?s=20
    It's kind of hard to tell apart from the reaction to Boris going Full English Brexit.

    Anyone know whether there was a bounce (by which I mean an increase, which goes back down in a few weeks) when Corbyn/Cable/Farron/EdM/Cameron/Clegg/Blair/Kennedy/IDS/Hague/Smith took over?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Very important win for the LDs. Maintains locals and Euro momentum.

    Tories need to get BXP down to 5% or so to regain the seat. Is that doable?

    Yes, well done to the LDs!

    Farage fails again, but does demonstrate that there is an anti Tory Brexit vote. If the Tories cannot win over Brexit votes in this sort of 2 horse race, they are never going to get them.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Since Johnson was at peak honeymoon, Chris Davies was a popular local MP, it was a Leave constituency & Labour attacked the LibDems instead of the tories, yes this was strong result for the LibDems.

    They were cohesive and dedicated. The 12% Cons-LibDem swing is strong.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    edited August 2019
    Yes, I am happy with that, and it matches what I felt after my campaigning visit there.

    LibDem activists will be pleased and relieved; as I said in the last thread, the party came together to campaign for this by-election in a way that hasn’t really been seen since Eastleigh (which was a most unusual contest) and it felt like one of the by-elections of old. It would have shattered morale not to have won; the challenges of distance and geography (and for those unluckier with timing than me, the weather) will make the victory truly feel earned. There will be great enthusiasm to press on toward Hallam, where campaigning has already started.

    I haven’t yet read the comments downthread but am sure the less than emphatic nature of the win and the Tory recovery of a significant part of the earlier polled BXP vote are mentioned. There will be non-Tories and never-Tories within the BXP total; nevertheless without the BXP the most likely result looks like a knifeedge Tory hold (unless the Labour squeeze had been more brutal; the widely predicted nature of this LibDem win allowed Labour to just retain its deposit).

    The media narrative going into the summer will be helpful for the LibDems and not for the government. But it will be forgotten by the end of the summer break.

    Hallam looks easy by comparison. Without the Brexit dimension B&R would have been an easy gain for the LibDems - but there a large number of more remain seats across the south where the Tories will soon be saying the same about their own prospects.

    And huge vindication for the Remain alliance. More pressure on Labour.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Chris said:

    A brilliant personal triumph for Boris Johnson and a ringing endorsement of No Deal Brexit.

    A ridiculous comment , given the circumstances of the by election
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    Being beaten by the loonies marked the (effective) end of the SDP. Will the same be true for UKIP?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    AndyJS said:

    Remain/Leave was about 50/50, so a slight movement to Remain compared to the referendum; was 52% Leave in 2017.

    Powys was 53.7% leave in 2016 and I don’t think we have anything more reliable focused on B&R itself?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Good result for the Lib Dems. Which side is going to be more coherent on a seat by seat basis: Remain or Leave?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    Slightly disappointing for Remain.

    Leaver parties just pipped Remain parties.
    Lib Dems only 4.5% ahead of the Tories.

    Still, a win’s a win.


    It will be interesting to see what reassurances the Tories have given the farming community there. There is no doubt farmers, particularly of the smaller type common in those parts, are now very worried about a no deal Brexit. Nevertheless the perception of activists is that the farmers mostly stuck with Davies (who is well known in local farming circles, and is also not a no dealer).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Noteworthy how many voters decided Brexit was important enough to vote for a convict to try to ensure that a Remainer didn’t win.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Scott_P said:
    Which is a strange argument as if 10% of voters still vote for Nigel in a 2 horse race, is Boris chasing votes that will never vote Tory?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    Charles said:

    It’s obviously not great for the Tories although it wasn’t a humiliation.

    I’d say if anything it is worse for Labour as they have demonstrated they are very vulnerable to a squeeze


    Labour has always been vulnerable to a squeeze when a LibDem win becomes a serious prospect, and the other news from B&R is that the coalition drag on the LibDems has mostly disappeared.

    The real test would come in a seat like Dover where Labour ought to win and the LibDems ought to be out of the running.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    AndyJS said:

    Tory majority now down to 1.

    But really 5 if you assume Elphicke and Hermon would vote with government in a VONC.

    Some of the indies would also either abstain or back the govt I think.
    It's over to Grieve, Clarke, Sandbach, etc.

    Any news? We’ve won the seat; where are our five defections? ;)
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    IanB2 said:

    Any news? We’ve won the seat; where are our five defections? ;)

    Boris probably still has a bit of honeymoon left to go, if I were them I'd give it a few weeks for the media cycle to work itself out and practical things to go wrong so I could spin the defection as "Conservatives are no longer the party of economic competence" rather than just "I disagree with them on Brexit".
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    The two local by-elections last night were convincing LibDem holds with very little vote shift from last year (and no sign at all of a Bozo bounce).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    IanB2 said:

    Any news? We’ve won the seat; where are our five defections? ;)

    Boris probably still has a bit of honeymoon left to go, if I were them I'd give it a few weeks for the media cycle to work itself out and practical things to go wrong so I could spin the defection as "Conservatives are no longer the party of economic competence" rather than just "I disagree with them on Brexit".
    Yes, as I said yesterday, September would be better.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756
    So as expected, everyone is drawing the wrong lessons.

    Let's look at this result clearly:

    1) There is no evidence of a so called 'Boris Bounce.' This was a much more emphatic win for the Liberal Democrats than seemed likely to those of us who knew the constituency. So this is a pretty bad result for the Tories, as it is a seat they could have held.

    2) There is no evidence that the 'Remain Alliance' had a meaningful effect. Yes, the Liberal Democrat vote was slightly up, but that seems to have come from several sources. Otherwise, abstentions account for most of the changes.

    3) We again have a huge number of people lazily adding 'Brexit' to 'Tory.' Nope. In this constituency many of them will have come from Labour.

    4) Not all Tories will have been Leavers, and (this will surprise some) not all Liberal Democrats remainers. The dynamics of this seat and by-election are complex. So it is pointless trying to work out from this result whether Remain or Leave is more popular.

    5) Which brings us to the real lesson of tonight. Labour have a problem. A big, big problem. They said their vote was draining to the Liberal Democrats. That should not be happening, as I explained before. But they are clearly also losing votes to apathy and to the Faragistas.

    All that is holding them together is being the second party. And yet, ironically, the media's ignorance of this seat means that this message will cut through that they are not sure of that any longer. A big defeat in Hallam could push their polling to ScotLab levels. A clear policy on - well, anything, but particularly Brexit, might help, but they may have left it too late to be credible.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    Noteworthy how many voters decided Brexit was important enough to vote for a convict to try to ensure that a Remainer didn’t win.

    Tbf the MP’s mistake wasn’t front of the campaign or of voters’ minds. Of course it helped secure the recall petition, but the feeling seemed to be that he’d been punished already, and on the other side of the coin he was a candidate with roots and local connections, in a seat where that matters more than most. “The local choice” was the strapline on all the Tory posters and leaflets (and a clear dig at the LibDem, who was repeatedly described as an ex-London councillor by the Tories and gave the LD campaign some challenges as others have observed).

    Parachuting in someone from whatever passes as the Tory A-list nowadays might not have ended better.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Not a disaster for Boris, clear message to Brexit Party voters that they handed the seat to an ultra remain party set on ignoring the referendum result

    Brexiteers are not too bright
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756

    Noteworthy how many voters decided Brexit was important enough to vote for a convict to try to ensure that a Remainer didn’t win.

    We can't draw that conclusion. He's personally popular and as is well known people will forgive things in their friends that they get het up over with anyone else.

    Also other factors will have been important. A very large number will have voted for him to try and ensure an outsider didn't become their MP.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    Noteworthy how many voters decided Brexit was important enough to vote for a convict to try to ensure that a Remainer didn’t win.

    Roles reversed, do you think remainers would shun their guy?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    ydoethur said:

    So as expected, everyone is drawing the wrong lessons.

    Let's look at this result clearly:

    1) There is no evidence of a so called 'Boris Bounce.' This was a much more emphatic win for the Liberal Democrats than seemed likely to those of us who knew the constituency. So this is a pretty bad result for the Tories, as it is a seat they could have held.

    2) There is no evidence that the 'Remain Alliance' had a meaningful effect. Yes, the Liberal Democrat vote was slightly up, but that seems to have come from several sources. Otherwise, abstentions account for most of the changes.

    3) We again have a huge number of people lazily adding 'Brexit' to 'Tory.' Nope. In this constituency many of them will have come from Labour.

    4) Not all Tories will have been Leavers, and (this will surprise some) not all Liberal Democrats remainers. The dynamics of this seat and by-election are complex. So it is pointless trying to work out from this result whether Remain or Leave is more popular.

    5) Which brings us to the real lesson of tonight. Labour have a problem. A big, big problem. They said their vote was draining to the Liberal Democrats. That should not be happening, as I explained before. But they are clearly also losing votes to apathy and to the Faragistas.

    All that is holding them together is being the second party. And yet, ironically, the media's ignorance of this seat means that this message will cut through that they are not sure of that any longer. A big defeat in Hallam could push their polling to ScotLab levels. A clear policy on - well, anything, but particularly Brexit, might help, but they may have left it too late to be credible.

    Whilst I agree that Labour has big problems, both strategic and tactical, I don’t think you can infer them from this result. In seats where the LibDems start as principal challengers, the Labour vote always got squeezed, even when Blair was sweeping all before him. If there’s a lesson from the Labour squeeze, it’s that LDs have finally escaped from the post-coalition drag.

    I agree with your 1; Boris lost votes as well as gained them. I disagree with your 2., support from PC and Green was invaluable and several activists from both parties joined the LD campaign. I broadly agree with your 4 & 5.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756
    IanB2 said:

    Parachuting in someone from whatever passes as the Tory A-list nowadays might not have ended better.

    Surely to goodness it would have ended far worse?!

    I suspect one reason Davies was readopted was simply the difficulty of finding another plausible candidate at short notice. After all, the Liberal Democrats found it pretty tough as well.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Labour celebrating a saved deposit. Just.

    Tories wondering if "Stand by your Man" was the best jukebox selection.

    Brexit Party now visibly getting in the way of electing Brexit-delivering MPs.

    UKIP now the Official Joke Candidate party. OMRLP to fold in the morning.

    New LibDem MP left wondering if its worth getting to know the Houses of Parliament lay-out before losing in an autumn election where the Brexit Party doesn't stand.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756
    IanB2 said:

    Whilst I agree that Labour has big problems, both strategic and tactical, I don’t think you can infer them from this result. In seats where the LibDems start as principal challengers, the Labour vote always got squeezed, even when Blair was sweeping all before him. If there’s a lesson from the Labour squeeze, it’s that LDs have finally escaped from the post-coalition drag.

    I agree with your 1; Boris lost votes as well as gained them. I disagree with your 2., support from PC and Green was invaluable and several activists from both parties joined the LD campaign. I broadly agree with your 4 & 5.

    Even in 1997 there was no tactical voting in this seat. None. This is a big and for Labour disturbing change.

    As for activists, they may have helped but I see little evidence their voters did (not that there were any Green voters in the seat last time).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    Noteworthy how many voters decided Brexit was important enough to vote for a convict to try to ensure that a Remainer didn’t win.

    They’ve already overlooked Bozo’s shameful character and history.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Any news? We’ve won the seat; where are our five defections? ;)

    Boris probably still has a bit of honeymoon left to go, if I were them I'd give it a few weeks for the media cycle to work itself out and practical things to go wrong so I could spin the defection as "Conservatives are no longer the party of economic competence" rather than just "I disagree with them on Brexit".
    Yes, as I said yesterday, September would be better.
    AS of now it's holiday season. No point doing anything until September 2nd / 3rd at which point 2+ defections will tip Parliament the other way and force Corbyn into asking for a VoNC..

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756
    edited August 2019

    New LibDem MP left wondering if its worth getting to know the Houses of Parliament lay-out before losing in an autumn election where the Brexit Party doesn't stand.

    If she intends to fight that election she'd be better off getting to know the layout of her constituency so she doesn't campaign outside its boundaries.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    edited August 2019
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Whilst I agree that Labour has big problems, both strategic and tactical, I don’t think you can infer them from this result. In seats where the LibDems start as principal challengers, the Labour vote always got squeezed, even when Blair was sweeping all before him. If there’s a lesson from the Labour squeeze, it’s that LDs have finally escaped from the post-coalition drag.

    I agree with your 1; Boris lost votes as well as gained them. I disagree with your 2., support from PC and Green was invaluable and several activists from both parties joined the LD campaign. I broadly agree with your 4 & 5.

    Even in 1997 there was no tactical voting in this seat. None. This is a big and for Labour disturbing change.

    As for activists, they may have helped but I see little evidence their voters did (not that there were any Green voters in the seat last time).
    Once the LibDems won the seat, Labour got pushed down from 27% in 1997 to just 10% in 2010.

    LibDems reported anecdotes of PC voters coming over.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    ydoethur said:

    New LibDem MP left wondering if its worth getting to know the Houses of Parliament lay-out before losing in an autumn election where the Brexit Party doesn't stand.

    If she intends to fight that election she'd be better off getting to know the layout of her constituency so she doesn't campaign outside its boundaries.
    You got the subtle dig this early in the morning - bravo!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    My verdict:
    On the face of it, a glorious win for the Lib Dems, and a rather important narrowing (closure?) of the Conservative's majority.

    However: the Conservatives had a poor candidate (who I actually feel a little sorry for - sorry, Ms Free), had the Brexit Party and UKIP splitting the leave vote, and PC and the Greens not standing benefited the Lib Dems.

    As far as I can tell, if the Greens/PC had stood, or the Brexit Party had not stood, or the Conservatives had had a different candidate, then the Conservatives would have won.

    TL:DR; the Lib Dems should have won by much more. Sadly.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,400
    Whoever suggested that the LibDems would get a 60% vote share needs to review their medication.

    Nice to see the Tories lose though. Thanks to the Brexit Party.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    Astonishing to think the Tories were at 26s this time last week given the result. Definitely a value loser.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Whilst I agree that Labour has big problems, both strategic and tactical, I don’t think you can infer them from this result. In seats where the LibDems start as principal challengers, the Labour vote always got squeezed, even when Blair was sweeping all before him. If there’s a lesson from the Labour squeeze, it’s that LDs have finally escaped from the post-coalition drag.

    I agree with your 1; Boris lost votes as well as gained them. I disagree with your 2., support from PC and Green was invaluable and several activists from both parties joined the LD campaign. I broadly agree with your 4 & 5.

    Even in 1997 there was no tactical voting in this seat. None. This is a big and for Labour disturbing change.

    As for activists, they may have helped but I see little evidence their voters did (not that there were any Green voters in the seat last time).
    Once the LibDems won the seat, Labour got pushed down from 27% in 1997 to just 10% in 2010.

    LibDems reported anecdotes of PC voters coming over.
    That wasn't tactical voting. That was the decline of Labour turnout.

    As for 'once the Liberal Democrats won the seat,' they held it from 1985 to 1992.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    edited August 2019
    LibDem tallies at the count indicate a clear LD win in Ystradgynlais, which as the largest town in the seat and usually Labour will have been key.

    Not just a tactical vote. Labour voters in large numbers prefer the LibDems’ stance on Brexit to that of their own party. And probably its leadership too.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    Astonishing to think the Tories were at 26s this time last week given the result. Definitely a value loser.

    Very much so, and a great tip by TSE.

    Very happy I backed it.
This discussion has been closed.