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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs overturn the Tory 19.5% majority to win the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election
Brecon & Radnorshire, result:
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Good morning ....
211 women MPs, the highest ever.
Tories need to get BXP down to 5% or so to regain the seat. Is that doable?
More seriously, a decent result for both the parties in contention, though obviously the Lib Dems will be happier. Congratulations to them.
Will it be done is another question but it is doable.
Leaver parties just pipped Remain parties.
Lib Dems only 4.5% ahead of the Tories.
Still, a win’s a win.
Terrible if you're a Labour Leaver or Ambiguist, and you know you'll have a weaker position to defend next time you have an argument with a Labour Rescind or Ref backer.
Awful if you're a UKIP headbanger - even the fact Brexity parties got over 50% would be scant consolation if you're that much into the Tommy Robinson flavour of Brexit and that looks increasingly electorally out of reach.
https://leftfootforward.org/2019/07/polling-shows-lib-dem-lead-in-brecon-by-election/
But really 5 if you assume Elphicke and Hermon would vote with government in a VONC.
I’d say if anything it is worse for Labour as they have demonstrated they are very vulnerable to a squeeze
Maybe Frank Field would.
The pro Brexit indies are likely govt backers in a VONC certainly
If I were a Tory spinner, I'd be happy with this result, and would point to the BXP squeeze (and whisper about the candidate's shady past). But as a Tory strategist, I'd be worried the gilt is already coming off Boris's gingerbread.
Would obviously be a mistake to assume that TBP voters are all going to vote Tory in a post Brexit election, but also a mistake based on this evidence to think they'd tactically vote Tory in a pre-Brexit election - even if a Tory government was mathematically the only plausible way to achieve Brexit and TBP votes were self-defeating. Would you risk going for an election before October 31? How much better would the odds be if Farage, and quite possibly his party, were to exit the calculus?
The former minister says he is "increasingly feeling politically homeless" due to his opposition to a no-deal Brexit."
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-mp-phillip-lee-to-spend-summer-considering-lib-dem-defection-11774237
So we can have a few 'Conservative and Brexit' party candidates, much like the 'Lab Co-Op' ones. Brilliant. Strategically brilliant.
If TBP held out for some almost guaranteed seats then there are more direct sacrifices available. If some of the Essex Tory Awkward Hardnut Squad would be willing to give up their seat for a greater cause, for example... (The joint ticket idea might also appeal to them! Indeed over Brexit they hardly count as votes a Tory leader can rely on anyway. But ego is a thing and somewhere a seat surely would need to be found for Farage.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_Brecon_and_Radnor_by-election#Result
https://twitter.com/DenisMacShane/status/1157104582545301504?s=20
Maybe if the Tories had a new candidate, they might have retained the seat?
It's also a validation of the ' Remain Alliance ' approach without writing the Lib Dems a blank Cheque. The 4.5% winning margin gives Plaid, Greens, Change some leverage to oull the plug. While it's fair to say Labour just experienced classic third party squeeze and we shouldn't read too much into the vote share it helps keep the pressure up on the collapsing Corbyn project.
Given the very rural nature of the seat and it's parsecs from Remania this is a real boost to sane centrist forces. Well done to everyone on the ground.
PS The Betfair vote share market was late ooening abd illiquid but I stuck a few quid on LD 40.00% to 44.99% which came in. Winning on results you like is an added bonus.
Just sayin'
Anyone know whether there was a bounce (by which I mean an increase, which goes back down in a few weeks) when Corbyn/Cable/Farron/EdM/Cameron/Clegg/Blair/Kennedy/IDS/Hague/Smith took over?
Farage fails again, but does demonstrate that there is an anti Tory Brexit vote. If the Tories cannot win over Brexit votes in this sort of 2 horse race, they are never going to get them.
They were cohesive and dedicated. The 12% Cons-LibDem swing is strong.
LibDem activists will be pleased and relieved; as I said in the last thread, the party came together to campaign for this by-election in a way that hasn’t really been seen since Eastleigh (which was a most unusual contest) and it felt like one of the by-elections of old. It would have shattered morale not to have won; the challenges of distance and geography (and for those unluckier with timing than me, the weather) will make the victory truly feel earned. There will be great enthusiasm to press on toward Hallam, where campaigning has already started.
I haven’t yet read the comments downthread but am sure the less than emphatic nature of the win and the Tory recovery of a significant part of the earlier polled BXP vote are mentioned. There will be non-Tories and never-Tories within the BXP total; nevertheless without the BXP the most likely result looks like a knifeedge Tory hold (unless the Labour squeeze had been more brutal; the widely predicted nature of this LibDem win allowed Labour to just retain its deposit).
The media narrative going into the summer will be helpful for the LibDems and not for the government. But it will be forgotten by the end of the summer break.
Hallam looks easy by comparison. Without the Brexit dimension B&R would have been an easy gain for the LibDems - but there a large number of more remain seats across the south where the Tories will soon be saying the same about their own prospects.
And huge vindication for the Remain alliance. More pressure on Labour.
It will be interesting to see what reassurances the Tories have given the farming community there. There is no doubt farmers, particularly of the smaller type common in those parts, are now very worried about a no deal Brexit. Nevertheless the perception of activists is that the farmers mostly stuck with Davies (who is well known in local farming circles, and is also not a no dealer).
Labour has always been vulnerable to a squeeze when a LibDem win becomes a serious prospect, and the other news from B&R is that the coalition drag on the LibDems has mostly disappeared.
The real test would come in a seat like Dover where Labour ought to win and the LibDems ought to be out of the running.
Any news? We’ve won the seat; where are our five defections?
Let's look at this result clearly:
1) There is no evidence of a so called 'Boris Bounce.' This was a much more emphatic win for the Liberal Democrats than seemed likely to those of us who knew the constituency. So this is a pretty bad result for the Tories, as it is a seat they could have held.
2) There is no evidence that the 'Remain Alliance' had a meaningful effect. Yes, the Liberal Democrat vote was slightly up, but that seems to have come from several sources. Otherwise, abstentions account for most of the changes.
3) We again have a huge number of people lazily adding 'Brexit' to 'Tory.' Nope. In this constituency many of them will have come from Labour.
4) Not all Tories will have been Leavers, and (this will surprise some) not all Liberal Democrats remainers. The dynamics of this seat and by-election are complex. So it is pointless trying to work out from this result whether Remain or Leave is more popular.
5) Which brings us to the real lesson of tonight. Labour have a problem. A big, big problem. They said their vote was draining to the Liberal Democrats. That should not be happening, as I explained before. But they are clearly also losing votes to apathy and to the Faragistas.
All that is holding them together is being the second party. And yet, ironically, the media's ignorance of this seat means that this message will cut through that they are not sure of that any longer. A big defeat in Hallam could push their polling to ScotLab levels. A clear policy on - well, anything, but particularly Brexit, might help, but they may have left it too late to be credible.
Parachuting in someone from whatever passes as the Tory A-list nowadays might not have ended better.
Also other factors will have been important. A very large number will have voted for him to try and ensure an outsider didn't become their MP.
I agree with your 1; Boris lost votes as well as gained them. I disagree with your 2., support from PC and Green was invaluable and several activists from both parties joined the LD campaign. I broadly agree with your 4 & 5.
I suspect one reason Davies was readopted was simply the difficulty of finding another plausible candidate at short notice. After all, the Liberal Democrats found it pretty tough as well.
Tories wondering if "Stand by your Man" was the best jukebox selection.
Brexit Party now visibly getting in the way of electing Brexit-delivering MPs.
UKIP now the Official Joke Candidate party. OMRLP to fold in the morning.
New LibDem MP left wondering if its worth getting to know the Houses of Parliament lay-out before losing in an autumn election where the Brexit Party doesn't stand.
As for activists, they may have helped but I see little evidence their voters did (not that there were any Green voters in the seat last time).
LibDems reported anecdotes of PC voters coming over.
On the face of it, a glorious win for the Lib Dems, and a rather important narrowing (closure?) of the Conservative's majority.
However: the Conservatives had a poor candidate (who I actually feel a little sorry for - sorry, Ms Free), had the Brexit Party and UKIP splitting the leave vote, and PC and the Greens not standing benefited the Lib Dems.
As far as I can tell, if the Greens/PC had stood, or the Brexit Party had not stood, or the Conservatives had had a different candidate, then the Conservatives would have won.
TL:DR; the Lib Dems should have won by much more. Sadly.
Nice to see the Tories lose though. Thanks to the Brexit Party.
As for 'once the Liberal Democrats won the seat,' they held it from 1985 to 1992.
Not just a tactical vote. Labour voters in large numbers prefer the LibDems’ stance on Brexit to that of their own party. And probably its leadership too.
Very happy I backed it.