Interesting that support for a No Deal in the IPSOS-Mori is 38%, which is less than the combined Tory/BXP score. 50% are opposed and 54% believe it will adversely affect them.
Despite that 10 point Tory lead I think it is way to soon to be calling any pre-Brexit election for Johnson. His lead looks very vulnerable to me.
Looking at the scope of the evacuation I am guessing this is either a smallish reservoir or they are not anticipating a major collapse, otherwise they would be evacuating further downstream rather than just Whalley Bridge. The Sheffield Wikipedia page suggests that a large breach into a substantial downstream river had a destructive range of about 5 miles or so and I think that was similar for the other Victorian dam collapse above Holmfirth.
Declaration was at 2:37am in 2017 and 2:53am in 2015. It's a night count again this time. The last time they started counting the next day was in 1997.
Smith continues to make a game of it with almost no support. He really is a class act although you have to take the rough with the smooth, I suppose.
He's ranked second highest on the all time batting ratings.
1. The Don 961 2. Smith 947 3. Hutton 945 4. Ponting 942 5. Jack Hobbs 942
Ponting was the best I ever saw, between Ashes 2005 and summer of 2008. His batting, in all formats, was just unreal. He made back to back centuries in his 100th test (against SA) with his eyes closed. It was the way he did it too, batting under big pressure after the Proteas made a big first innings score. Won the game too, one of his 108 Test wins. Another unreal stat.
Are we thinking of the same Ponting?
(Why Gary Pratt will always be a great pub quiz question answer).
YEP! I remember he looked superb with the bat that day. Really in good nick, then Marto ran him out. The famous sub fielded GARY PRATT!
It all could've been so different
Fun fact. That test match at Trent Bridge was the only one in which an Australian team featuring Shane Warne was forced to follow-on (and Vaughan enforced it without knowing the extent of the injury to Jones).
I had tickets for Day 5, and a house 400m from the ground. I was willing England to win but wanted it to stretch into the final day :-(
Burnham (Greater Manchester) and Rotheram (Greater Liverpool) have won the trigger ballot to be reselected as Labour candidates for next mayoral elections
Interesting that support for a No Deal in the IPSOS-Mori is 38%, which is less than the combined Tory/BXP score. 50% are opposed and 54% believe it will adversely affect them.
Despite that 10 point Tory lead I think it is way to soon to be calling any pre-Brexit election for Johnson. His lead looks very vulnerable to me.
Burnham (Greater Manchester) and Rotheram (Greater Liverpool) have won the trigger ballot to be reselected as Labour candidates for next mayoral elections
Good news. Presumably the loonies on the Left are crying their eyes out?
Looking at the scope of the evacuation I am guessing this is either a smallish reservoir or they are not anticipating a major collapse, otherwise they would be evacuating further downstream rather than just Whalley Bridge. The Sheffield Wikipedia page suggests that a large breach into a substantial downstream river had a destructive range of about 5 miles or so and I think that was similar for the other Victorian dam collapse above Holmfirth.
The current Toddbrook reservoir apparently holds 300,000,000 gallons, but the old Dale Dyke Reservoir that failed held 114,000,000 cubic feet of water, or 691,000,000 gallons (but afaicr wasn't full when it collapsed). So it's about half the size.
Wiki indicates that work was done a while back to aid problems caused by old mineshats adjacent to the dam at Todbrook. Any betting that the old shafts are a contributory factor to this mess?
Apple are an evil company. It's a shame that everyone else has to jump into the cesspit with them.
(And as I doubt the dongles will be compatible, it's an utterly anti-consumer move as people will need to carry about different dongles. 3.5mm jacks work perfectly well.)
Apple are an evil company. It's a shame that everyone else has to jump into the cesspit with them.
(And as I doubt the dongles will be compatible, it's an utterly anti-consumer move as people will need to carry about different dongles. 3.5mm jacks work perfectly well.)
How on earth can you claim that Apple are an evil company? They are far more ethical than the likes of Facebook, Microsoft and Google and invest a hell of a lot of money into accessibility features.
Apple are an evil company. It's a shame that everyone else has to jump into the cesspit with them.
(And as I doubt the dongles will be compatible, it's an utterly anti-consumer move as people will need to carry about different dongles. 3.5mm jacks work perfectly well.)
How on earth can you claim that Apple are an evil company? They are far more ethical than the likes of Facebook, Microsoft and Google and invest a hell of a lot of money into accessibility features.
At least Apple are clear that they sell hardware and software. You are their customer.
With Google and Facebook, they primarily sell data to advertisers and marketers. You are their product.
Apple are an evil company. It's a shame that everyone else has to jump into the cesspit with them.
(And as I doubt the dongles will be compatible, it's an utterly anti-consumer move as people will need to carry about different dongles. 3.5mm jacks work perfectly well.)
How on earth can you claim that Apple are an evil company? They are far more ethical than the likes of Facebook, Microsoft and Google and invest a hell of a lot of money into accessibility features.
By knowing how they work in the industry. I'm not defending the likes of MS, Facebook and Google (although MS does a lot of good stuff), but the Apple fanbois really should dig a little deeper.
Apple are an evil company. It's a shame that everyone else has to jump into the cesspit with them.
(And as I doubt the dongles will be compatible, it's an utterly anti-consumer move as people will need to carry about different dongles. 3.5mm jacks work perfectly well.)
How on earth can you claim that Apple are an evil company? They are far more ethical than the likes of Facebook, Microsoft and Google and invest a hell of a lot of money into accessibility features.
By knowing how they work in the industry. I'm not defending the likes of MS, Facebook and Google (although MS does a lot of good stuff), but the Apple fanbois really should dig a little deeper.
Burnham (Greater Manchester) and Rotheram (Greater Liverpool) have won the trigger ballot to be reselected as Labour candidates for next mayoral elections
Good news. Presumably the loonies on the Left are crying their eyes out?
Rotheram is a sort of Corbynite. But some left dominated CLPs like Liverpool Riverside voted to trigger him out of a "let's have an open selection everywhere" idea. It would have been funny if the first to be trigger had been a Corbynite.
Edit: ok, I always forget about them. 2 Police and Crime Commissioners have already been triggered.
Apple are an evil company. It's a shame that everyone else has to jump into the cesspit with them.
(And as I doubt the dongles will be compatible, it's an utterly anti-consumer move as people will need to carry about different dongles. 3.5mm jacks work perfectly well.)
How on earth can you claim that Apple are an evil company? They are far more ethical than the likes of Facebook, Microsoft and Google and invest a hell of a lot of money into accessibility features.
By knowing how they work in the industry. I'm not defending the likes of MS, Facebook and Google (although MS does a lot of good stuff), but the Apple fanbois really should dig a little deeper.
They are not 'ethical' at a business level.
And neither is any company really?
No, Apple takes it a stage or two beyond what is acceptable IMO.
Going away from business practices, their attitude towards standards is sh*t. And I love standards.
If you want bad timing, a hiking acquaintance of mine has been sidelined by ill-health for a year. He got the all-clear last month, and chose this week for his first back-to-health backpack. In the Peak District ...
Apple are an evil company. It's a shame that everyone else has to jump into the cesspit with them.
(And as I doubt the dongles will be compatible, it's an utterly anti-consumer move as people will need to carry about different dongles. 3.5mm jacks work perfectly well.)
How on earth can you claim that Apple are an evil company? They are far more ethical than the likes of Facebook, Microsoft and Google and invest a hell of a lot of money into accessibility features.
By knowing how they work in the industry. I'm not defending the likes of MS, Facebook and Google (although MS does a lot of good stuff), but the Apple fanbois really should dig a little deeper.
They are not 'ethical' at a business level.
And neither is any company really?
No, Apple takes it a stage or two beyond what is acceptable IMO.
Going away from business practices, their attitude towards standards is sh*t. And I love standards.
I love standards too. What standards are you referring to?
Mr. Borough, missed most of the footage but I did hear a month's worth of rain (day before yesterday) fell in 4 hours.
So where is Boris? During Brown's honeymoon (between his accession to the throne, and the bottled election) he was forever being photographed up to the top of his wellies in a torrent of water, and getting praise from all quarters for giving good flood. Is Johnson more keen to follow in May's footsteps and react too little and too late as she did with Grenfell?
Is he mad enough to do it? Suspect they'll be wondering the same thing in Brussels.
If he convinces Brussels that he is mad enough to do it, then it will be job done.
I wrote earlier this year that we needed to appear mad to Brussels. That what we needed was not just to act hard, but to act full on Vinnie Jones levels of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" stark raving bonkers to the Europeans.
Is he mad enough to do it? Suspect they'll be wondering the same thing in Brussels.
If he convinces Brussels that he is mad enough to do it, then it will be job done.
I wrote earlier this year that we needed to appear mad to Brussels. That what we needed was not just to act hard, but to act full on Vinnie Jones levels of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" stark raving bonkers to the Europeans.
Being "diplomatic" won't work.
They'll just wait for us to come to our senses, at which time our bargaining position will be even weaker than it currently is.
Is he mad enough to do it? Suspect they'll be wondering the same thing in Brussels.
If he convinces Brussels that he is mad enough to do it, then it will be job done.
I wrote earlier this year that we needed to appear mad to Brussels. That what we needed was not just to act hard, but to act full on Vinnie Jones levels of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" stark raving bonkers to the Europeans.
Is he mad enough to do it? Suspect they'll be wondering the same thing in Brussels.
If he convinces Brussels that he is mad enough to do it, then it will be job done.
I wrote earlier this year that we needed to appear mad to Brussels. That what we needed was not just to act hard, but to act full on Vinnie Jones levels of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" stark raving bonkers to the Europeans.
Being "diplomatic" won't work.
They'll just wait for us to come to our senses, at which time our bargaining position will be even weaker than it currently is.
Except we have no need to come to our senses. We can cope either way, even HM Treasuries pessimistic forecasts show we'll be better off in a future no deal scenario than we are now, what will be foregone is some growth. The longer we get past the event horizon of a no deal Brexit the less disruptive it will be to us too.
Their position of maximum strength is now when people are worried. Once we've gotten over any disruption they'll be weaker than now.
Is he mad enough to do it? Suspect they'll be wondering the same thing in Brussels.
If he convinces Brussels that he is mad enough to do it, then it will be job done.
I wrote earlier this year that we needed to appear mad to Brussels. That what we needed was not just to act hard, but to act full on Vinnie Jones levels of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" stark raving bonkers to the Europeans.
If the UK is determined to go for No Deal, it is not in the EU’s interests to try to stop it. You can’t appease madmen drunk on nationalism.
It will come down to politics. Will there be a blowback for Merkel and Macron in their own countries if they don't blink and stop No Deal? I think not, and so they will not cave.
Interesting that support for a No Deal in the IPSOS-Mori is 38%, which is less than the combined Tory/BXP score. 50% are opposed and 54% believe it will adversely affect them.
Despite that 10 point Tory lead I think it is way to soon to be calling any pre-Brexit election for Johnson. His lead looks very vulnerable to me.
That is what Kieren Pedley thinks in this good news/bad news thread.
Is he mad enough to do it? Suspect they'll be wondering the same thing in Brussels.
If he convinces Brussels that he is mad enough to do it, then it will be job done.
I wrote earlier this year that we needed to appear mad to Brussels. That what we needed was not just to act hard, but to act full on Vinnie Jones levels of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" stark raving bonkers to the Europeans.
Is he mad enough to do it? Suspect they'll be wondering the same thing in Brussels.
If he convinces Brussels that he is mad enough to do it, then it will be job done.
I wrote earlier this year that we needed to appear mad to Brussels. That what we needed was not just to act hard, but to act full on Vinnie Jones levels of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" stark raving bonkers to the Europeans.
If the UK is determined to go for No Deal, it is not in the EU’s interests to try to stop it. You can’t appease madmen drunk on nationalism.
The EU's best bet is to let us get blind drunk on the beer and cider of full nationalism, then wait until, after the inevitable hangover of almost national bankruptcy, we come back inside again.
Is he mad enough to do it? Suspect they'll be wondering the same thing in Brussels.
If he convinces Brussels that he is mad enough to do it, then it will be job done.
I wrote earlier this year that we needed to appear mad to Brussels. That what we needed was not just to act hard, but to act full on Vinnie Jones levels of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" stark raving bonkers to the Europeans.
If the UK is determined to go for No Deal, it is not in the EU’s interests to try to stop it. You can’t appease madmen drunk on nationalism.
The EU's best bet is to let us get blind drunk on the beer and cider of full nationalism, then wait until, after the inevitable hangover of almost national bankruptcy, we come back inside again.
The only thing that might make them blink is that a massive recession in UK just as the EU hits a recession is going to possibly break the euro.
Except we have no need to come to our senses. We can cope either way, even HM Treasuries pessimistic forecasts show we'll be better off in a future no deal scenario than we are now, what will be foregone is some growth. The longer we get past the event horizon of a no deal Brexit the less disruptive it will be to us too.
Their position of maximum strength is now when people are worried. Once we've gotten over any disruption they'll be weaker than now.
Yeah yeah.
Even if your fantasy was correct, there is the little problemette that they know perfectly well that Boris hasn't got a majority, so what on earth would be the point of doing a deal with him, at the cost of losing political face, destroying their unity, and appearing to abandon an EU member state, even if they wanted to?
Not to mention the fact that Boris has put himself in a straitjacket and thrown away the key, with a deadline which would be impossible to meet even if there were no other issues.
Apple are an evil company. It's a shame that everyone else has to jump into the cesspit with them.
(And as I doubt the dongles will be compatible, it's an utterly anti-consumer move as people will need to carry about different dongles. 3.5mm jacks work perfectly well.)
How on earth can you claim that Apple are an evil company? They are far more ethical than the likes of Facebook, Microsoft and Google and invest a hell of a lot of money into accessibility features.
By knowing how they work in the industry. I'm not defending the likes of MS, Facebook and Google (although MS does a lot of good stuff), but the Apple fanbois really should dig a little deeper.
They are not 'ethical' at a business level.
And neither is any company really?
No, Apple takes it a stage or two beyond what is acceptable IMO.
Going away from business practices, their attitude towards standards is sh*t. And I love standards.
I love standards too. What standards are you referring to?
Common EPS for a start (and loads of others). This is why, when we go away, we need to take chargers (ahem, dongle) just for any Apple devices.
You may also want to look at the licensing conditions for any of *their* standards. Open and free they are not.
Except we have no need to come to our senses. We can cope either way, even HM Treasuries pessimistic forecasts show we'll be better off in a future no deal scenario than we are now, what will be foregone is some growth. The longer we get past the event horizon of a no deal Brexit the less disruptive it will be to us too.
Their position of maximum strength is now when people are worried. Once we've gotten over any disruption they'll be weaker than now.
Yeah yeah.
Even if your fantasy was correct, there is the little problemette that they know perfectly well that Boris hasn't got a majority, so what on earth would be the point of doing a deal with him, at the cost of losing political face, destroying their unity, and appearing to abandon an EU member state, even if they wanted to?
Not to mention the fact that Boris has put himself in a straitjacket and thrown away the key, with a deadline which would be impossible to meet even if there were no other issues.
What could be a potential EU wedge between Johnson and the DUP?
Not to mention the fact that Boris has put himself in a straitjacket and thrown away the key, with a deadline which would be impossible to meet even if there were no other issues.
I notice the Tories have put a "how many days do we have left in office" clock up in No10
Is he mad enough to do it? Suspect they'll be wondering the same thing in Brussels.
If he convinces Brussels that he is mad enough to do it, then it will be job done.
I wrote earlier this year that we needed to appear mad to Brussels. That what we needed was not just to act hard, but to act full on Vinnie Jones levels of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" stark raving bonkers to the Europeans.
You cannot negotiate with nutters, you just contain them. That is why the EU will stick by Ireland. Those German car makers are not interested in bailing out Boris.
If a deal between the UK and EU cannot be reached:
38% support leaving the European Union without a deal, whereas 50% oppose. 67% of Conservative voters support this outcome but 74% of Labour voters oppose.
50% support delaying the UK leaving until an agreement can be reached, 37% oppose. 62% of Conservatives oppose this outcome and 75% of Labour voters support it.
56% support a General Election to elect a new parliament, 29% oppose. 87% of Labour voters and 71% of Lib Dems support this outcome but a majority of Conservatives (55%) oppose.
38% is even more than the 34% the Tories are polling on the headline poll
Is he mad enough to do it? Suspect they'll be wondering the same thing in Brussels.
If he convinces Brussels that he is mad enough to do it, then it will be job done.
I wrote earlier this year that we needed to appear mad to Brussels. That what we needed was not just to act hard, but to act full on Vinnie Jones levels of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" stark raving bonkers to the Europeans.
Interesting that support for a No Deal in the IPSOS-Mori is 38%, which is less than the combined Tory/BXP score. 50% are opposed and 54% believe it will adversely affect them.
Despite that 10 point Tory lead I think it is way to soon to be calling any pre-Brexit election for Johnson. His lead looks very vulnerable to me.
That is what Kieren Pedley thinks in this good news/bad news thread.
Is he mad enough to do it? Suspect they'll be wondering the same thing in Brussels.
If he convinces Brussels that he is mad enough to do it, then it will be job done.
I wrote earlier this year that we needed to appear mad to Brussels. That what we needed was not just to act hard, but to act full on Vinnie Jones levels of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" stark raving bonkers to the Europeans.
Being "diplomatic" won't work.
They'll just wait for us to come to our senses, at which time our bargaining position will be even weaker than it currently is.
Except we have no need to come to our senses. We can cope either way, even HM Treasuries pessimistic forecasts show we'll be better off in a future no deal scenario than we are now, what will be foregone is some growth. The longer we get past the event horizon of a no deal Brexit the less disruptive it will be to us too.
You're an economist by training. Tell us about the time value of money. How much is a dollar today Vs a dollar tomorrow worth?
Is he mad enough to do it? Suspect they'll be wondering the same thing in Brussels.
If he convinces Brussels that he is mad enough to do it, then it will be job done.
I wrote earlier this year that we needed to appear mad to Brussels. That what we needed was not just to act hard, but to act full on Vinnie Jones levels of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" stark raving bonkers to the Europeans.
Being "diplomatic" won't work.
They'll just wait for us to come to our senses, at which time our bargaining position will be even weaker than it currently is.
Except we have no need to come to our senses. We can cope either way, even HM Treasuries pessimistic forecasts show we'll be better off in a future no deal scenario than we are now, what will be foregone is some growth. The longer we get past the event horizon of a no deal Brexit the less disruptive it will be to us too.
You're an economist by training. Tell us about the time value of money. How much is a dollar today Vs a dollar tomorrow worth?
I am not sure day to day movements in currency worthwhile.
RCS said: That shouldn't be an enormous surprise. The PMIs point to high risks of recessions in both the Eurozone and the UK.
In the US, the PMIs are the merest smidgen above 50. More worryingly, the yield curve has properly inverted. Out of the six recessions in the post WW2 era, this has only happened on seven occasions. On all but one of those, it was followed within six months by a recession.
What should scare policymakers in both Europe and the US is that monetary policy cannot easily be used to boost demand. Interest rates in the US are a mere 2%. In the UK they're are... ummm... 0.75%. The Eurozone is - what - 0.25%.
I said: Too conventional in your thinking. Monetary policy has a larger tool kit these days. The ECB are already talking about going back to QE along with negative interest rates.
It would be nice to know whether Carney there is a chance of recession with no Brexit.
Is he mad enough to do it? Suspect they'll be wondering the same thing in Brussels.
If he convinces Brussels that he is mad enough to do it, then it will be job done.
I wrote earlier this year that we needed to appear mad to Brussels. That what we needed was not just to act hard, but to act full on Vinnie Jones levels of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" stark raving bonkers to the Europeans.
Being "diplomatic" won't work.
They'll just wait for us to come to our senses, at which time our bargaining position will be even weaker than it currently is.
Except we have no need to come to our senses. We can cope either way, even HM Treasuries pessimistic forecasts show we'll be better off in a future no deal scenario than we are now, what will be foregone is some growth. The longer we get past the event horizon of a no deal Brexit the less disruptive it will be to us too.
You're an economist by training. Tell us about the time value of money. How much is a dollar today Vs a dollar tomorrow worth?
I am not sure day to day movements in currency worthwhile.
Lets see where the pound is in the autumn
I think TOPPING is talking about the worth of spending a dollar today, rather than saving it to spend tomorrow.
That, or I'm an idiot. Probably the latter, actually.
Those figures are wrong Labour is unchanged - Tories are up 8 % - Lib Dems have dropped 2% - Bxt Pty has dropped 3%. - Greens down 2%.
Ipsos MORI have made some methodological changes, so they aren't comparing to last month per se.
That would make nonsense of their last poll which had the Tories 2% ahead. They now seem to imply that actually Labour was 2% ahead! Are they now claiming that last month the LibDems were not - after all - on 22% but just 15%? Similarly the Brexit Party had not fallen to 12% but was still on 16%? If so, Ipsos Mori has credibility issues. Apparently they do not prompt for the Brexit Party - hence, its lower rating.
What they should have done is shown the figures for
New Methodology - July vs June Old Methodology - July vs June
They should then have indicated they would only be showing new methodology in future.
The methodology changes can only have had a tiny effect at most (it was just whether to prompt for the Brexit Party or not, a decision YouGov have already implemented without calling it a "methodology change").
The reason BritainElects' figures look so different is that they have missed out the June poll altogether!
Indeed - that does appear to be the explanation. Thanks for that!
Interesting that support for a No Deal in the IPSOS-Mori is 38%, which is less than the combined Tory/BXP score. 50% are opposed and 54% believe it will adversely affect them.
Despite that 10 point Tory lead I think it is way to soon to be calling any pre-Brexit election for Johnson. His lead looks very vulnerable to me.
That is what Kieren Pedley thinks in this good news/bad news thread.
Is he mad enough to do it? Suspect they'll be wondering the same thing in Brussels.
If he convinces Brussels that he is mad enough to do it, then it will be job done.
I wrote earlier this year that we needed to appear mad to Brussels. That what we needed was not just to act hard, but to act full on Vinnie Jones levels of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" stark raving bonkers to the Europeans.
Being "diplomatic" won't work.
They'll just wait for us to come to our senses, at which time our bargaining position will be even weaker than it currently is.
Except we have no need to come to our senses. We can cope either way, even HM Treasuries pessimistic forecasts show we'll be better off in a future no deal scenario than we are now, what will be foregone is some growth. The longer we get past the event horizon of a no deal Brexit the less disruptive it will be to us too.
You're an economist by training. Tell us about the time value of money. How much is a dollar today Vs a dollar tomorrow worth?
I am not sure day to day movements in currency worthwhile.
Lets see where the pound is in the autumn
Big G it's nothing to do with the exchange rate. If you have a dollar today it is worth more than being given a dollar in a year's time. Even at today's low interest rates.
So if we forego growth today and it arrives some time in the future it makes less of an impact on our wealth.
Is he mad enough to do it? Suspect they'll be wondering the same thing in Brussels.
If he convinces Brussels that he is mad enough to do it, then it will be job done.
I wrote earlier this year that we needed to appear mad to Brussels. That what we needed was not just to act hard, but to act full on Vinnie Jones levels of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" stark raving bonkers to the Europeans.
Being "diplomatic" won't work.
They'll just wait for us to come to our senses, at which time our bargaining position will be even weaker than it currently is.
Except we have no need to come to our senses. We can cope either way, even HM Treasuries pessimistic forecasts show we'll be better off in a future no deal scenario than we are now, what will be foregone is some growth. The longer we get past the event horizon of a no deal Brexit the less disruptive it will be to us too.
You're an economist by training. Tell us about the time value of money. How much is a dollar today Vs a dollar tomorrow worth?
I am not sure day to day movements in currency worthwhile.
Lets see where the pound is in the autumn
I think TOPPING is talking about the worth of spending a dollar today, rather than saving it to spend tomorrow.
That, or I'm an idiot. Probably the latter, actually.
Interesting that support for a No Deal in the IPSOS-Mori is 38%, which is less than the combined Tory/BXP score. 50% are opposed and 54% believe it will adversely affect them.
Despite that 10 point Tory lead I think it is way to soon to be calling any pre-Brexit election for Johnson. His lead looks very vulnerable to me.
That is what Kieren Pedley thinks in this good news/bad news thread.
Is he mad enough to do it? Suspect they'll be wondering the same thing in Brussels.
If he convinces Brussels that he is mad enough to do it, then it will be job done.
I wrote earlier this year that we needed to appear mad to Brussels. That what we needed was not just to act hard, but to act full on Vinnie Jones levels of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" stark raving bonkers to the Europeans.
Being "diplomatic" won't work.
They'll just wait for us to come to our senses, at which time our bargaining position will be even weaker than it currently is.
Except we have no need to come to our senses. We can cope either way, even HM Treasuries pessimistic forecasts show we'll be better off in a future no deal scenario than we are now, what will be foregone is some growth. The longer we get past the event horizon of a no deal Brexit the less disruptive it will be to us too.
You're an economist by training. Tell us about the time value of money. How much is a dollar today Vs a dollar tomorrow worth?
I am not sure day to day movements in currency worthwhile.
Lets see where the pound is in the autumn
Big G it's nothing to do with the exchange rate. If you have a dollar today it is worth more than being given a dollar in a year's time. Even at today's low interest rates.
So if we forego growth today and it arrives some time in the future it makes less of an impact on our wealth.
Interesting that support for a No Deal in the IPSOS-Mori is 38%, which is less than the combined Tory/BXP score. 50% are opposed and 54% believe it will adversely affect them.
Despite that 10 point Tory lead I think it is way to soon to be calling any pre-Brexit election for Johnson. His lead looks very vulnerable to me.
That is what Kieren Pedley thinks in this good news/bad news thread.
No leader who has led on best PM ratings has failed to win the general election even if their party lacked a clear lead on headline voting intention
I would be grateful if you could provide me with a source for that. Genuinely interested
Even in 1992 and 2015 when the Tories lacked a clear lead in most polls and Labour even led in most 1992 polls Major and Cameron led Kinnock and Ed Miliband as preferred PM.
Same in Australia a few months ago when Labor narrowly led most polls but Morrison led Shorten as preferred PM and the Coalition got a shock 1992 style win.
Only exception may be 1970, I think even in 1979 Thatcher led Callaghan in final polls
Is he mad enough to do it? Suspect they'll be wondering the same thing in Brussels.
If he convinces Brussels that he is mad enough to do it, then it will be job done.
I wrote earlier this year that we needed to appear mad to Brussels. That what we needed was not just to act hard, but to act full on Vinnie Jones levels of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" stark raving bonkers to the Europeans.
Being "diplomatic" won't work.
They'll just wait for us to come to our senses, at which time our bargaining position will be even weaker than it currently is.
Except we have no need to come to our senses. We can cope either way, even HM Treasuries pessimistic forecasts show we'll be better off in a future no deal scenario than we are now, what will be foregone is some growth. The longer we get past the event horizon of a no deal Brexit the less disruptive it will be to us too.
You're an economist by training. Tell us about the time value of money. How much is a dollar today Vs a dollar tomorrow worth?
I am not sure day to day movements in currency worthwhile.
Lets see where the pound is in the autumn
I think TOPPING is talking about the worth of spending a dollar today, rather than saving it to spend tomorrow.
That, or I'm an idiot. Probably the latter, actually.
Interesting that support for a No Deal in the IPSOS-Mori is 38%, which is less than the combined Tory/BXP score. 50% are opposed and 54% believe it will adversely affect them.
Despite that 10 point Tory lead I think it is way to soon to be calling any pre-Brexit election for Johnson. His lead looks very vulnerable to me.
That is what Kieren Pedley thinks in this good news/bad news thread.
Interesting that support for a No Deal in the IPSOS-Mori is 38%, which is less than the combined Tory/BXP score. 50% are opposed and 54% believe it will adversely affect them.
Despite that 10 point Tory lead I think it is way to soon to be calling any pre-Brexit election for Johnson. His lead looks very vulnerable to me.
That is what Kieren Pedley thinks in this good news/bad news thread.
Not to mention the fact that Boris has put himself in a straitjacket and thrown away the key, with a deadline which would be impossible to meet even if there were no other issues.
I notice the Tories have put a "how many days do we have left in office" clock up in No10
Is he mad enough to do it? Suspect they'll be wondering the same thing in Brussels.
If he convinces Brussels that he is mad enough to do it, then it will be job done.
I wrote earlier this year that we needed to appear mad to Brussels. That what we needed was not just to act hard, but to act full on Vinnie Jones levels of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" stark raving bonkers to the Europeans.
Being "diplomatic" won't work.
They'll just wait for us to come to our senses, at which time our bargaining position will be even weaker than it currently is.
Except we have no need to come to our senses. We can cope either way, even HM Treasuries pessimistic forecasts show we'll be better off in a future no deal scenario than we are now, what will be foregone is some growth. The longer we get past the event horizon of a no deal Brexit the less disruptive it will be to us too.
You're an economist by training. Tell us about the time value of money. How much is a dollar today Vs a dollar tomorrow worth?
I am not sure day to day movements in currency worthwhile.
Lets see where the pound is in the autumn
Big G it's nothing to do with the exchange rate. If you have a dollar today it is worth more than being given a dollar in a year's time. Even at today's low interest rates.
So if we forego growth today and it arrives some time in the future it makes less of an impact on our wealth.
If interest rates are 5% and inflation is 2%, £1 today will be worth £1.05 in a year's time, or £1.03 in real terms. So £1 today is better than £1 in a year's time. 3p better in this example.
Is he mad enough to do it? Suspect they'll be wondering the same thing in Brussels.
If he convinces Brussels that he is mad enough to do it, then it will be job done. Ing I wrote earlier this year that we needed to appear mad to Brussels. That what we needed was not just to act hard, but to act full on Vinnie Jones levels of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" stark raving bonkers to the Europeans.
Being "diplomatic" won't work.
They'll just wait for us to come to our senses, at which time our bargaining position will be even weaker than it currently is.
Except we have no need to come to our senses. We can cope either way, even HM Treasuries pessimistic forecasts show we'll be better off in a future no deal scenario than we are now, what will be foregone is some growth. The longer we get past the event horizon of a no deal Brexit the less disruptive it will be to us too.
You're an economist by training. Tell us about the time value of money. How much is a dollar today Vs a dollar tomorrow worth?
I am not sure day to day movements in currency worthwhile.
Lets see where the pound is in the autumn
That's not what @TOPPING meant, @Big_G_NorthWales . The theory is that a dollar now is worth more than a dollar in ten years time, because a) you could have put that dollar in a bank account and got interest, b) the purchasing power of that future dollar is less due to inflation, and c) there is a non-trivial chance of you dying in the meantime.
I used to work in an actuarial firm (many years ago!) and you have to take things like that into account.
Is he mad enough to do it? Suspect they'll be wondering the same thing in Brussels.
If he convinces Brussels that he is mad enough to do it, then it will be job done. Ing I wrote earlier this year that we needed to appear mad to Brussels. That what we needed was not just to act hard, but to act full on Vinnie Jones levels of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" stark raving bonkers to the Europeans.
Being "diplomatic" won't work.
They'll just wait for us to come to our senses, at which time our bargaining position will be even weaker than it currently is.
Except we have no need to come to our senses. We can cope either way, even HM Treasuries pessimistic forecasts show we'll be better off in a future no deal scenario than we are now, what will be foregone is some growth. The longer we get past the event horizon of a no deal Brexit the less disruptive it will be to us too.
You're an economist by training. Tell us about the time value of money. How much is a dollar today Vs a dollar tomorrow worth?
I am not sure day to day movements in currency worthwhile.
Lets see where the pound is in the autumn
That's not what @TOPPING meant, @Big_G_NorthWales . The theory is that a dollar now is worth more than a dollar in ten years time, because a) you could have put that dollar in a bank account and got interest, b) the purchasing power of that future dollar is less due to inflation, and c) there is a non-trivial chance of you dying in the meantime.
I used to work in an actuarial firm (many years ago!) and you have to take things like that into account.
Interesting that support for a No Deal in the IPSOS-Mori is 38%, which is less than the combined Tory/BXP score. 50% are opposed and 54% believe it will adversely affect them.
Despite that 10 point Tory lead I think it is way to soon to be calling any pre-Brexit election for Johnson. His lead looks very vulnerable to me.
That is what Kieren Pedley thinks in this good news/bad news thread.
Comments
Despite that 10 point Tory lead I think it is way to soon to be calling any pre-Brexit election for Johnson. His lead looks very vulnerable to me.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/birth-rate-in-england-and-wales-at-lowest-since-records-began-fw06v59pb
Samsung Expected to Remove Headphone Jack from Galaxy Note 10 as Seen in New Dongle Leak
https://www.macrumors.com/2019/08/01/samsung-headphone-jack-dongle/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19pjmPA5bAYievt7plp9SOKce4EbXBeamLmww2Ba2GCA/edit#gid=0
Wiki indicates that work was done a while back to aid problems caused by old mineshats adjacent to the dam at Todbrook. Any betting that the old shafts are a contributory factor to this mess?
(And as I doubt the dongles will be compatible, it's an utterly anti-consumer move as people will need to carry about different dongles. 3.5mm jacks work perfectly well.)
Likewise videogame companies, mostly in a race to see who can have the scummiest microtransactions.
(CDPR do seem to be bucking the trend, though, and I like the look of Obsidian's The Outer Worlds).
With Google and Facebook, they primarily sell data to advertisers and marketers. You are their product.
They are not 'ethical' at a business level.
It would have been funny if the first to be trigger had been a Corbynite.
Edit: ok, I always forget about them. 2 Police and Crime Commissioners have already been triggered.
Going away from business practices, their attitude towards standards is sh*t. And I love standards.
If you want bad timing, a hiking acquaintance of mine has been sidelined by ill-health for a year. He got the all-clear last month, and chose this week for his first back-to-health backpack. In the Peak District ...
Arguably, it's a poor use of he Cayman Islands Government's money if their £17k didn't mean they gained vocal support from these two.
Everyone else: As You Were
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/14/just-a-matter-of-when-the-20bn-plan-to-power-singapore-with-australian-solar
I wrote earlier this year that we needed to appear mad to Brussels. That what we needed was not just to act hard, but to act full on Vinnie Jones levels of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" stark raving bonkers to the Europeans.
Being "diplomatic" won't work.
From the movie Eurotrip:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyFwViOiAqY
Their position of maximum strength is now when people are worried. Once we've gotten over any disruption they'll be weaker than now.
What better advert for Union could there be?
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1156890526999863296?s=19
Even if your fantasy was correct, there is the little problemette that they know perfectly well that Boris hasn't got a majority, so what on earth would be the point of doing a deal with him, at the cost of losing political face, destroying their unity, and appearing to abandon an EU member state, even if they wanted to?
Not to mention the fact that Boris has put himself in a straitjacket and thrown away the key, with a deadline which would be impossible to meet even if there were no other issues.
You may also want to look at the licensing conditions for any of *their* standards. Open and free they are not.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49165836
Even discussing labour in this range is surreal and illustrates Corbyn's corrosive effect on the labour party
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/public-see-johnson-most-capable-pm-vs-corbyn-ipsos-mori-political-monitor-july-2019
No leader who has led on best PM ratings has failed to win the general election even if their party lacked a clear lead on headline voting intention
Lets see where the pound is in the autumn
That, or I'm an idiot. Probably the latter, actually.
So if we forego growth today and it arrives some time in the future it makes less of an impact on our wealth.
@Philip_Thompson will explain.
People can't concentrate.
In 2016, there was much certainty Remain had won. For an hour.
I'd be wary of predicting how things will go and the consequences that follow.
Same in Australia a few months ago when Labor narrowly led most polls but Morrison led Shorten as preferred PM and the Coalition got a shock 1992 style win.
Only exception may be 1970, I think even in 1979 Thatcher led Callaghan in final polls
Put another way, he has used up one-twelfth of his time before a NoDeal exit.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/british-public-opinion-march-1979
This is known as Net Present Value.
I used to work in an actuarial firm (many years ago!) and you have to take things like that into account.
How much did May lead Corbyn before the June 2017 where she lost seats and Labour gained?