She said a mass slaughter was the last thing the union wanted but to avoid that the government would need to look at forcing hospitals, schools and other public bodies to buy lamb meat.
Alun Cairns, the Welsh secretary, agreed that farming was a winner from having access to EU markets but said there was potential for exports to new markets.
Asked for his response to threats of civil unrest, he claimed UK farmers could export their meat to Japan rather than Europe.
Wow. A state-enforced consumption of sheep meat would certainly be drastic. As for 'sell it to Japan instead' - how easy is that? Surely New Zealand would have something to say about it through some APEC mechanism.
The author is "a professor of political science at the University of New Haven". And the analysis is shockingly weak.
Now, I'm not saying he's not right (he could be), only the evidence he touts is so weak. He claims, for example, "Progressive voters will not support a moderate Democratic candidate, and moderate voters will not support a progressive Democratic candidate."
Is there polling evidence for this? Perhaps some kind of analysis of how a moderate candidate like Biden suppresses turnout of more left wing Democrats? Nope. Nothing. It's an assertion without a shred of data.
If this all the analysis required to get a Professorship at the University of New Haven, then pretty much every PBer should be in line.
Indeed. Read this the other day and was left underwhelmed. Trump seems to be motivating his supporters and opponents in equal measure.....
Not quite equal measure: https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3635 Only 32 percent of all American voters say they "definitely" will vote for Trump if he is the Republican candidate in the 2020 presidential election, while 12 percent say they will consider voting for Trump.
But 54 percent of all American voters say they "definitely" will not vote for Trump, matching the "never Trump" total from a May 21 Quinnipiac University National Poll. This "never Trump" tally includes 57 percent of independent voters...
Didn’t they? More fool them. It was Cameron/Osbornism at its worst.
According to the National Audit Office, Help to Buy resulted in 14% more houses being built than would otherwise have been the case. It also helped tilt the market towards first-time buyers. It was a success, in other words; when it was introduced, the mortgage market was in a dire state.
Construction of new housing has boomed since 2013.
Didn’t they? More fool them. It was Cameron/Osbornism at its worst.
According to the National Audit Office, Help to Buy resulted in 14% more houses being built than would otherwise have been the case. It also helped tilt the market towards first-time buyers. It was a success, in other words; when it was introduced, the mortgage market was in a dire state.
Construction of new housing has boomed since 2013.
Every bit of green space within the Newcastle City boundaries is being filled in, my house included (ex green belt). Most of them are freehold now but with private management companies.
It’s a ticking time bomb as there is almost no regulation around this legal construct and any legal fees if challenged can be back-charged to the estate.
Didn’t they? More fool them. It was Cameron/Osbornism at its worst.
According to the National Audit Office, Help to Buy resulted in 14% more houses being built than would otherwise have been the case. It also helped tilt the market towards first-time buyers. It was a success, in other words; when it was introduced, the mortgage market was in a dire state.
Very happy to hear that. How much would the policy have cost had they simply directed the money at local authorities to build more housing rather than lining the pockets of the developers?
Can any of the Brexiters who haunt this board explain why the pound keeps falling as the Brexit saga continues?
I thought Brexit was supposed to be a boon to the economy? That’s what we were promised before the referendum, and Rees-Mogg suggested as such again only last month.
Or are the currency markets just “wrong”?
Was it really the consensus among leavers that there would be an economic golden age? Sure you can find quotes where Reece-mug et al say it'll be good for the economy.
Didn’t they? More fool them. It was Cameron/Osbornism at its worst.
According to the National Audit Office, Help to Buy resulted in 14% more houses being built than would otherwise have been the case. It also helped tilt the market towards first-time buyers. It was a success, in other words; when it was introduced, the mortgage market was in a dire state.
Construction of new housing has boomed since 2013.
Every bit of green space within the Newcastle City boundaries is being filled in, my house included (ex green belt). Most of them are freehold now but with private management companies.
It’s a ticking time bomb as there is almost no regulation around this legal construct and any legal fees if challenged can be back-charged to the estate.
One thing to be avoided like the plague is "free conveyancing" offered by developers.
The author is "a professor of political science at the University of New Haven". And the analysis is shockingly weak.
Now, I'm not saying he's not right (he could be), only the evidence he touts is so weak. He claims, for example, "Progressive voters will not support a moderate Democratic candidate, and moderate voters will not support a progressive Democratic candidate."
Is there polling evidence for this? Perhaps some kind of analysis of how a moderate candidate like Biden suppresses turnout of more left wing Democrats? Nope. Nothing. It's an assertion without a shred of data.
If this all the analysis required to get a Professorship at the University of New Haven, then pretty much every PBer should be in line.
Indeed. Read this the other day and was left underwhelmed. Trump seems to be motivating his supporters and opponents in equal measure.....
Not quite equal measure: https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3635 Only 32 percent of all American voters say they "definitely" will vote for Trump if he is the Republican candidate in the 2020 presidential election, while 12 percent say they will consider voting for Trump.
But 54 percent of all American voters say they "definitely" will not vote for Trump, matching the "never Trump" total from a May 21 Quinnipiac University National Poll. This "never Trump" tally includes 57 percent of independent voters...
Yet while 51% say Biden has the best chance of beating Trump only 8% say the same of Warren or Harris in that poll
Didn’t they? More fool them. It was Cameron/Osbornism at its worst.
According to the National Audit Office, Help to Buy resulted in 14% more houses being built than would otherwise have been the case. It also helped tilt the market towards first-time buyers. It was a success, in other words; when it was introduced, the mortgage market was in a dire state.
Construction of new housing has boomed since 2013.
Every bit of green space within the Newcastle City boundaries is being filled in, my house included (ex green belt). Most of them are freehold now but with private management companies.
It’s a ticking time bomb as there is almost no regulation around this legal construct and any legal fees if challenged can be back-charged to the estate.
One thing to be avoided like the plague is "free conveyancing" offered by developers.
I agree but that’s only part of the problem. You can have an independent conveyancer but if you have to use help-to-buy you don’t have a choice whether to enter into these so called ‘fleecehold’ agreements.
Can any of the Brexiters who haunt this board explain why the pound keeps falling as the Brexit saga continues?
I thought Brexit was supposed to be a boon to the economy? That’s what we were promised before the referendum, and Rees-Mogg suggested as such again only last month.
Or are the currency markets just “wrong”?
To boost UK manufacturing exports and tourism to the UK, in that sense Brexit is a boon to the economy
Can any of the Brexiters who haunt this board explain why the pound keeps falling as the Brexit saga continues?
I thought Brexit was supposed to be a boon to the economy? That’s what we were promised before the referendum, and Rees-Mogg suggested as such again only last month.
Or are the currency markets just “wrong”?
Was it really the consensus among leavers that there would be an economic golden age? Sure you can find quotes where Reece-mug et al say it'll be good for the economy.
Perhaps the question is, what did Brexiteers feel brexit would give them that is worth paying a significant economic price for?
Now that's a tricky one...
There was the free global trade Britain wing which thought the economy would take off, but also a protectionist anti immigration wing which thought the cost to the economy a price worth paying.
Conflicting aims which are a big part of why politicians have struggled to deliver, and why inevitably a large proportion of the leave voters will feel let down even if somehow the current govt executes Brexit well.
Can any of the Brexiters who haunt this board explain why the pound keeps falling as the Brexit saga continues?
I thought Brexit was supposed to be a boon to the economy? That’s what we were promised before the referendum, and Rees-Mogg suggested as such again only last month.
Or are the currency markets just “wrong”?
To boost UK manufacturing exports
Currency traders are not selling the pound out of a desire to boost our exports.
You have truly taken on the Trump disease - the belief that everything is about you.
The author is "a professor of political science at the University of New Haven". And the analysis is shockingly weak.
Now, I'm not saying he's not right (he could be), only the evidence he touts is so weak. He claims, for example, "Progressive voters will not support a moderate Democratic candidate, and moderate voters will not support a progressive Democratic candidate."
Is there polling evidence for this? Perhaps some kind of analysis of how a moderate candidate like Biden suppresses turnout of more left wing Democrats? Nope. Nothing. It's an assertion without a shred of data.
If this all the analysis required to get a Professorship at the University of New Haven, then pretty much every PBer should be in line.
Indeed. Read this the other day and was left underwhelmed. Trump seems to be motivating his supporters and opponents in equal measure.....
Not quite equal measure: https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3635 Only 32 percent of all American voters say they "definitely" will vote for Trump if he is the Republican candidate in the 2020 presidential election, while 12 percent say they will consider voting for Trump.
But 54 percent of all American voters say they "definitely" will not vote for Trump, matching the "never Trump" total from a May 21 Quinnipiac University National Poll. This "never Trump" tally includes 57 percent of independent voters...
Yet while 51% say Biden has the best chance of beating Trump only 8% say the same of Warren or Harris in that poll
Our trade deficit is equivalent to roughly 3% of GDP. Correcting that will cause a recession. And the longer we put it off the more those rentiers are in other countries getting a return on their UK assets.
That's the fundamental issue.
Back in the good old days (say 1997), the UK had a significant positive net assets position (c. 30% of GDP). It's now negative to around 20%. (That is, we've spent the equivalent of about 50% of GDP more than we've earned in the last two decades. That's quite scary.)
Back in 1997, we could run a 0.5% of GDP deficit in the Balance of Trade, and remittances from abroad would make up the gap. Now, it's the other way around. We now need to run a 0.5% BoT surplus if we just want to see our Current Account balance.
What's really scary is how much the time horizons of politicians have come in. Any kind of correction must be avoided by printing money or increasing spending or reducing taxes. The lessons of the 70s - that we need to spend within our means - have been completely forgotten, as politicians fear even the most modest of slowdowns.
The problem is exacerbated by the constant hysteria in the media. So today's "crash" is currently standing at 0.3 of one cent against the Euro and 0.5c against the dollar. We live breathlessly from quarter to quarter on growth, in fact our addiction now gives us monthly growth figures. Getting hysterical about tenths of a percent on growth being "lost" because of Brexit is another symptom.
Meanwhile deep underlying problems such as our predilection for debt, our consequentially poor investment, our consequentially poor productivity and a dysfunctional property market which makes the employment market far less mobile than required are ignored. It really is time our media grew up and required our politicians to do likewise.
On a recent job we needed a server. We asked for a server. The server was said to be ready next week. My colleague said that he would ask, every week, when the server would be ready. He asked every week. It, somehow, took more than three months but eventually we had our server.
No-one is asking the government about the trade deficit, or the balance of payments, and unless someone starts to do so it will surely lead to a painful reckoning.
Didn’t they? More fool them. It was Cameron/Osbornism at its worst.
According to the National Audit Office, Help to Buy resulted in 14% more houses being built than would otherwise have been the case. It also helped tilt the market towards first-time buyers. It was a success, in other words; when it was introduced, the mortgage market was in a dire state.
Help to Buy has helped Persimmon get plenty of bonuses in, the prices of new homes compared to second hand are completely out of whack on any rational (Sq Metre) basis. The British obsession with valuing according to the 'number of bedrooms' has lead to appalling value on newbuilds.
Didn’t they? More fool them. It was Cameron/Osbornism at its worst.
According to the National Audit Office, Help to Buy resulted in 14% more houses being built than would otherwise have been the case. It also helped tilt the market towards first-time buyers. It was a success, in other words; when it was introduced, the mortgage market was in a dire state.
How has Help to Buy helped first time buyers?
Nearly all the govt housing "help" has been designed to push up prices for the asset holding pensioners and baby boomers. It has given the young the choice of renting or paying earnings multiples far higher than any previous generation if they want own.
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
No, its not. Its treading water against the $ fractionally down on the session so far.
The strength of sterling is traditionally viewed against the reserve currency (or a weighted global basket), and £/€ has the additional disadvantage that bad Brexit outcomes hit both currencies. The Euro has been weak this week against some poor EU economic data. With the £ flat against the $ your original "clearly" statement about the markets is nonsense.
Surely the benchmark currency for measuring Brexit is the euro?. There really is nothing to argue about here. Sterling is up on the week..
Best to stay quiet and be thought a fool than to post and remove all doubt....
Except that you are wrong. A transparent attempt to try and cite the currency markets in support of a conclusion you had reached before even looking.
The Euro is down, but the £ isn't up. Against the weighted basket the £ peaked (modestly) on Friday, and dropped marginally through yesterday. The basket isn't calculated for today, but £ being fractionally down against the $ nothing dramatic is happening this morning as yet. The markets are essentially flat, as they (like us) wonder what this all means.
This is hilarious. Sterling is up against the euro over the last week versus the benchmark EU currency! I look at these things for a living. There is no debate and your argument is sophistry.
I am informed by XE.com that as of this post £1 = 1.092 EUR and £1 = 1.218 USD. It was not that low last week at any point. Perhaps you could name the numbers that support your contention and supply a link to it so we may check.
This is a stupid tic of financial reporting where if X drops by 5%, they'll have somebody on who thinks it's going to drop by another 5%. This makes it look like a bigger story than it actually is to the viewer as they think that person represents an expert consensus, when in fact for everyone who thinks it'll drop by 5% there's an equal and opposite person who thinks it's going back up 5%, otherwise it would already have dropped the full 10%.
This is a stupid tic of financial reporting where if X drops by 5%, they'll have somebody on who thinks it's going to drop by another 5%. This makes it look like a bigger story than it actually is to the viewer as they think that person represents an expert consensus, when in fact for everyone who thinks it'll drop by 5% there's an equal and opposite person who thinks it's going back up 5%, otherwise it would already have dropped the full 10%.
Drops by x on event y that may or may not happen, as in the headline in the article is fine.
Can any of the Brexiters who haunt this board explain why the pound keeps falling as the Brexit saga continues?
I thought Brexit was supposed to be a boon to the economy? That’s what we were promised before the referendum, and Rees-Mogg suggested as such again only last month.
Or are the currency markets just “wrong”?
To boost UK manufacturing exports
Currency traders are not selling the pound out of a desire to boost our exports.
You have truly taken on the Trump disease - the belief that everything is about you.
Just pointing out that despite diehard Remainers whinging, a falling pound makes British exports cheaper to buy abroad this increasing demand and also makes visits to London and the UK cheaper as well boosting tourists coming to the UK and staycations
The author is "a professor of political science at the University of New Haven". And the analysis is shockingly weak.
Now, I'm not saying he's not right (he could be), only the evidence he touts is so weak. He claims, for example, "Progressive voters will not support a moderate Democratic candidate, and moderate voters will not support a progressive Democratic candidate."
Is there polling evidence for this? Perhaps some kind of analysis of how a moderate candidate like Biden suppresses turnout of more left wing Democrats? Nope. Nothing. It's an assertion without a shred of data.
If this all the analysis required to get a Professorship at the University of New Haven, then pretty much every PBer should be in line.
Indeed. Read this the other day and was left underwhelmed. Trump seems to be motivating his supporters and opponents in equal measure.....
Not quite equal measure: https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3635 Only 32 percent of all American voters say they "definitely" will vote for Trump if he is the Republican candidate in the 2020 presidential election, while 12 percent say they will consider voting for Trump.
But 54 percent of all American voters say they "definitely" will not vote for Trump, matching the "never Trump" total from a May 21 Quinnipiac University National Poll. This "never Trump" tally includes 57 percent of independent voters...
Yet while 51% say Biden has the best chance of beating Trump only 8% say the same of Warren or Harris in that poll
And ?
Biden beats Trump by 10% in the latest Fox poll but Trump beats Harris and Warren by 1% each
Sterling is at a higher level now than, for example, it was at the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017. And the high for 2019 is about... ooohhh... 1.31, so it's not like it's completely collapsed.
The big question that the UK economy has to answer, however, is this:
Does a c. 10% devaluation of Sterling boost exports meaningfully or not?
If it does, that's great, and part of resetting the British economy on a more sustainable path. If it does not, and sees British consumers borrow more to keep up consumption levels despite falling real incomes, then we should all be concerned.
Right now, the evidence from the PMIs is that export demand is not being stimulated. (Or rather, the global economic backdrop, with slowdowns in the US and Europe is such that any improved competitiveness is being offset by lower overall demand.) Consumer borrowing and the current account are also heading in the wrong direction.
Forget Brexit for a second: those numbers are simply horrible for the UK economy. The more unbalanced the UK economy is, the more painful bringing the current account and savings rates into balance becomes.
In the 243 years since American Independence in 1776(ish), the pound has been lower than this for only six months(ish). How low does it have to go before you think it's a problem?
When it starts to produce significant cost push inflation. Of which there is currently no sign.
Previous Leavers have cited an export boom as a reason to pursue a Weak Sterling policy. Now you are telling me it is not a problem because it does not produce cost price inflation. Taking you at your word for the moment, what is the level of cost price inflation you would consider significant, and how would you compensate for the lack of choice implied by foreign good becoming prohibitive?
One thing is becoming clear to me now wrt currency movements etc
Precisely noone (Who had any sort of money or power influence) believed May would actually go ahead with Brexit without a deal !
That's probably right. It also explains why the economic damage hasn't been too bad so far. However, it's an extrapolation too far to assume that such a relatively benign effect would survive the reality of a no-deal crash-out.
This is a stupid tic of financial reporting where if X drops by 5%, they'll have somebody on who thinks it's going to drop by another 5%. This makes it look like a bigger story than it actually is to the viewer as they think that person represents an expert consensus, when in fact for everyone who thinks it'll drop by 5% there's an equal and opposite person who thinks it's going back up 5%, otherwise it would already have dropped the full 10%.
Drops by x on event y that may or may not happen, as in the headline in the article is fine.
The author is "a professor of political science at the University of New Haven". And the analysis is shockingly weak.
Now, I'm not saying he's not right (he could be), only the evidence he touts is so weak. He claims, for example, "Progressive voters will not support a moderate Democratic candidate, and moderate voters will not support a progressive Democratic candidate."
Is there polling evidence for this? Perhaps some kind of analysis of how a moderate candidate like Biden suppresses turnout of more left wing Democrats? Nope. Nothing. It's an assertion without a shred of data.
If this all the analysis required to get a Professorship at the University of New Haven, then pretty much every PBer should be in line.
Indeed. Read this the other day and was left underwhelmed. Trump seems to be motivating his supporters and opponents in equal measure.....
Not quite equal measure: https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3635 Only 32 percent of all American voters say they "definitely" will vote for Trump if he is the Republican candidate in the 2020 presidential election, while 12 percent say they will consider voting for Trump.
But 54 percent of all American voters say they "definitely" will not vote for Trump, matching the "never Trump" total from a May 21 Quinnipiac University National Poll. This "never Trump" tally includes 57 percent of independent voters...
Yet while 51% say Biden has the best chance of beating Trump only 8% say the same of Warren or Harris in that poll
And ?
Biden beats Trump by 10% in the latest Fox poll but Trump beats Harris and Warren by 1% each
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
No, its not. Its treading water against the $ fractionally down on the session so far.
The strength of sterling is traditionally viewed against the reserve currency (or a weighted global basket), and £/€ has the additional disadvantage that bad Brexit outcomes hit both currencies. The Euro has been weak this week against some poor EU economic data. With the £ flat against the $ your original "clearly" statement about the markets is nonsense.
Surely the benchmark currency for measuring Brexit is the euro?. There really is nothing to argue about here. Sterling is up on the week..
Best to stay quiet and be thought a fool than to post and remove all doubt....
Except that you are wrong. A transparent attempt to try and cite the currency markets in support of a conclusion you had reached before even looking.
The Euro is down, but the £ isn't up. Against the weighted basket the £ peaked (modestly) on Friday, and dropped marginally through yesterday. The basket isn't calculated for today, but £ being fractionally down against the $ nothing dramatic is happening this morning as yet. The markets are essentially flat, as they (like us) wonder what this all means.
This is hilarious. Sterling is up against the euro over the last week versus the benchmark EU currency! I look at these things for a living. There is no debate and your argument is sophistry.
I am informed by XE.com that as of this post £1 = 1.092 EUR and £1 = 1.218 USD. It was not that low last week at any point. Perhaps you could name the numbers that support your contention and supply a link to it so we may check.
Sorry, this is my fault, I forgot that quotes on this site aren't timestamped. Basicbridge's message is from a few days ago, I just reposted it to make fun of how spectacularly his analysis has fallen apart.
Sterling is at a higher level now than, for example, it was at the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017. And the high for 2019 is about... ooohhh... 1.31, so it's not like it's completely collapsed.
The big question that the UK economy has to answer, however, is this:
Does a c. 10% devaluation of Sterling boost exports meaningfully or not?
If it does, that's great, and part of resetting the British economy on a more sustainable path. If it does not, and sees British consumers borrow more to keep up consumption levels despite falling real incomes, then we should all be concerned.
Right now, the evidence from the PMIs is that export demand is not being stimulated. (Or rather, the global economic backdrop, with slowdowns in the US and Europe is such that any improved competitiveness is being offset by lower overall demand.) Consumer borrowing and the current account are also heading in the wrong direction.
Forget Brexit for a second: those numbers are simply horrible for the UK economy. The more unbalanced the UK economy is, the more painful bringing the current account and savings rates into balance becomes.
In the 243 years since American Independence in 1776(ish), the pound has been lower than this for only six months(ish). How low does it have to go before you think it's a problem?
At pretty much any time in history, you've been able to say "the British Pound is at its lowest level ever relative to the Swiss Franc".
So, at what point do we just dissolve the entire United Kingdom and apply to become cantons of the Helvetic Republic?
That is a good point. It would have been a better point if it had answered the question I asked, which was "how low does the pound have to go before you think it's a problem?"
And will they keep doing that every year? Those ewes will be tupped this autumn ready to produce lambs next spring. Or do they imagine that by then there will be some magical deal?
Are they going to do this for all the other exporters losing sales as a result of a No Deal exit?
Can any of the Brexiters who haunt this board explain why the pound keeps falling as the Brexit saga continues?
I thought Brexit was supposed to be a boon to the economy? That’s what we were promised before the referendum, and Rees-Mogg suggested as such again only last month.
One thing is becoming clear to me now wrt currency movements etc
Precisely noone (Who had any sort of money or power influence) believed May would actually go ahead with Brexit without a deal !
I think the currency markets have slightly underestimated the chance of no deal and the betting markets significantly overestimated the chance of no deal, both in March and heading to October.
The technical competence and commitment to long term financial prudence of the new cabinet vs old cabinet will also be factor in the drop on top of the chance of no deal.
And will they keep doing that every year? Those ewes will be tupped this autumn ready to produce lambs next spring. Or do they imagine that by then there will be some magical deal?
Are they going to do this for all the other exporters losing sales as a result of a No Deal exit?
Depends if the exporters are rich enough (the richer the bigger the state benefits) and tend to vote both Tory and leave.
Didn’t they? More fool them. It was Cameron/Osbornism at its worst.
According to the National Audit Office, Help to Buy resulted in 14% more houses being built than would otherwise have been the case. It also helped tilt the market towards first-time buyers. It was a success, in other words; when it was introduced, the mortgage market was in a dire state.
Unfortunately, the units they built were flats. Which have risen in price by more than 14% since the policy was introduced...
And will they keep doing that every year? Those ewes will be tupped this autumn ready to produce lambs next spring. Or do they imagine that by then there will be some magical deal?
Are they going to do this for all the other exporters losing sales as a result of a No Deal exit?
Lamb burgers and Sunday roast for all.
Buy British Lamb campaign. Excellent.
Exporters will benefit from the low £, especially in the US and Asia where tariffs will be unchanged following even a No Deal Brexit
And will they keep doing that every year? Those ewes will be tupped this autumn ready to produce lambs next spring. Or do they imagine that by then there will be some magical deal?
Are they going to do this for all the other exporters losing sales as a result of a No Deal exit?
I think the government can buy off farmers. Not everyone is adversely affected by No Deal and the the additional amounts of money are small in the scheme of things.
No amount of bribery will keep car or other Just in Time manufacturing in business. IMO.
The Donald is grateful to "Morning Joe" for his election
Donald J. Trump 11 mins · Wow! Morning Joe & Psycho ratings have really crashed. Very small audience. People are tired of hearing Fake News delivered with an anger that is not to be believed. Sad, when the show was sane, they helped get me elected. Thanks! Was on all the time. Lost all of its juice!
Can any of the Brexiters who haunt this board explain why the pound keeps falling as the Brexit saga continues?
I thought Brexit was supposed to be a boon to the economy? That’s what we were promised before the referendum, and Rees-Mogg suggested as such again only last month.
Or are the currency markets just “wrong”?
Markets dislike uncertainty.
Markets only exist because of uncertainty.
Nonsense. Futures markets only exist because of uncertainty. Even if we were still in the ERM, I'd still need to exchange GBP for EUR when going on holiday.
Can any of the Brexiters who haunt this board explain why the pound keeps falling as the Brexit saga continues?
I thought Brexit was supposed to be a boon to the economy? That’s what we were promised before the referendum, and Rees-Mogg suggested as such again only last month.
Or are the currency markets just “wrong”?
To boost UK manufacturing exports
Currency traders are not selling the pound out of a desire to boost our exports.
You have truly taken on the Trump disease - the belief that everything is about you.
Just pointing out that despite diehard Remainers whinging, a falling pound makes British exports cheaper to buy abroad this increasing demand and also makes visits to London and the UK cheaper as well boosting tourists coming to the UK and staycations
The pound has been falling on and off since Cameron announced the referendum date. To what level will it drop and what threshold does it have to cross for you to say it has fallen too far?
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
No, its not. Its treading water against the $ fractionally down on the session so far.
The strength of sterling is traditionally viewed against the reserve currency (or a weighted global basket), and £/€ has the additional disadvantage that bad Brexit outcomes hit both currencies. The Euro has been weak this week against some poor EU economic data. With the £ flat against the $ your original "clearly" statement about the markets is nonsense.
Surely the benchmark currency for measuring Brexit is the euro?. There really is nothing to argue about here. Sterling is up on the week..
Best to stay quiet and be thought a fool than to post and remove all doubt....
Except that you are wrong. A transparent attempt to try and cite the currency markets in support of a conclusion you had reached before even looking.
The Euro is down, but the £ isn't up. Against the weighted basket the £ peaked (modestly) on Friday, and dropped marginally through yesterday. The basket isn't calculated for today, but £ being fractionally down against the $ nothing dramatic is happening this morning as yet. The markets are essentially flat, as they (like us) wonder what this all means.
This is hilarious. Sterling is up against the euro over the last week versus the benchmark EU currency! I look at these things for a living. There is no debate and your argument is sophistry.
I am informed by XE.com that as of this post £1 = 1.092 EUR and £1 = 1.218 USD. It was not that low last week at any point. Perhaps you could name the numbers that support your contention and supply a link to it so we may check.
Sorry, this is my fault, I forgot that quotes on this site aren't timestamped. Basicbridge's message is from a few days ago, I just reposted it to make fun of how spectacularly his analysis has fallen apart.
Can any of the Brexiters who haunt this board explain why the pound keeps falling as the Brexit saga continues?
I thought Brexit was supposed to be a boon to the economy? That’s what we were promised before the referendum, and Rees-Mogg suggested as such again only last month.
Or are the currency markets just “wrong”?
To boost UK manufacturing exports
Currency traders are not selling the pound out of a desire to boost our exports.
You have truly taken on the Trump disease - the belief that everything is about you.
Just pointing out that despite diehard Remainers whinging, a falling pound makes British exports cheaper to buy abroad this increasing demand and also makes visits to London and the UK cheaper as well boosting tourists coming to the UK and staycations
The pound had been falling on and off since Cameron announces the referendum date. To what level will it drop and what threshold does it have to cross for you to say it has fallen too far?
Can any of the Brexiters who haunt this board explain why the pound keeps falling as the Brexit saga continues?
I thought Brexit was supposed to be a boon to the economy? That’s what we were promised before the referendum, and Rees-Mogg suggested as such again only last month.
Or are the currency markets just “wrong”?
To boost UK manufacturing exports
Currency traders are not selling the pound out of a desire to boost our exports.
You have truly taken on the Trump disease - the belief that everything is about you.
Just pointing out that despite diehard Remainers whinging, a falling pound makes British exports cheaper to buy abroad this increasing demand and also makes visits to London and the UK cheaper as well boosting tourists coming to the UK and staycations
The pound had been falling on and off since Cameron announces the referendum date. To what level will it drop and what threshold does it have to cross for you to say it has fallen too far?
For the domestic British tourist industry the £ can never fall too far
And will they keep doing that every year? Those ewes will be tupped this autumn ready to produce lambs next spring. Or do they imagine that by then there will be some magical deal?
Are they going to do this for all the other exporters losing sales as a result of a No Deal exit?
I think the government can buy off farmers. Not everyone is adversely affected by No Deal and the the additional amounts of money are small in the scheme of things.
No amount of bribery will keep car or other Just in Time manufacturing in business. IMO.
So in addition to the sums to be paid to farmers, there will be the loss of tax revenues from the loss of those manufacturers and other associated businesses. Plus the benefits to be paid to the unemployed workers.
Pretty soon this is all going to add up to some serious money. Is this is what is meant by the Brexit bonus?
Can any of the Brexiters who haunt this board explain why the pound keeps falling as the Brexit saga continues?
I thought Brexit was supposed to be a boon to the economy? That’s what we were promised before the referendum, and Rees-Mogg suggested as such again only last month.
Or are the currency markets just “wrong”?
To boost UK manufacturing exports
Currency traders are not selling the pound out of a desire to boost our exports.
You have truly taken on the Trump disease - the belief that everything is about you.
Just pointing out that despite diehard Remainers whinging, a falling pound makes British exports cheaper to buy abroad this increasing demand and also makes visits to London and the UK cheaper as well boosting tourists coming to the UK and staycations
The pound had been falling on and off since Cameron announces the referendum date. To what level will it drop and what threshold does it have to cross for you to say it has fallen too far?
For the domestic British tourist industry the £ can never fall too far
Can any of the Brexiters who haunt this board explain why the pound keeps falling as the Brexit saga continues?
I thought Brexit was supposed to be a boon to the economy? That’s what we were promised before the referendum, and Rees-Mogg suggested as such again only last month.
Or are the currency markets just “wrong”?
To boost UK manufacturing exports
Currency traders are not selling the pound out of a desire to boost our exports.
You have truly taken on the Trump disease - the belief that everything is about you.
Just pointing out that despite diehard Remainers whinging, a falling pound makes British exports cheaper to buy abroad this increasing demand and also makes visits to London and the UK cheaper as well boosting tourists coming to the UK and staycations
The pound had been falling on and off since Cameron announces the referendum date. To what level will it drop and what threshold does it have to cross for you to say it has fallen too far?
For the domestic British tourist industry the £ can never fall too far
Who can forget the tourism booms of the Weimar republic or soviet occupied Hungary, or more recently the Mugabe specials offered at the Travel Agents.
And will they keep doing that every year? Those ewes will be tupped this autumn ready to produce lambs next spring. Or do they imagine that by then there will be some magical deal?
Are they going to do this for all the other exporters losing sales as a result of a No Deal exit?
I think the government can buy off farmers. Not everyone is adversely affected by No Deal and the the additional amounts of money are small in the scheme of things.
No amount of bribery will keep car or other Just in Time manufacturing in business. IMO.
No - pretty much all UK car manufacturing would be gone within a year or two of no deal IMO. Rolls Royce, Aston and maybe a bit of Jaguar might be exceptions but I cant see the Japanese or French groups staying here.
Why shouldn`t he call Johnson a liar, when he is one? Parliamentary conventions apply only to Parliamentarians. Most of us are not, and are free to name Johnson for what he is.
That is a good point. It would have been a better point if it had answered the question I asked, which was "how low does the pound have to go before you think it's a problem?"
It's a question without an answer. Years ago you could get $5 for £1. If suddenly the currency market said that tomorrow would that be fantastic news? I don't think so.
Years from now £1 could be worth $1.20, $1.50, $2, $5, or 50c or 20c. What matters is not where we get currency wise but how and why and what effect it has on the economy.
It seems to me, the LDs need to move business and the economy right up its priority list. The messages on Brexit and the environment are working, but there are lots of voters who have historically voted tory, probably switched to Blair and back, because they value economic competence and stability. These are homeless voters at the moment.
Can any of the Brexiters who haunt this board explain why the pound keeps falling as the Brexit saga continues?
I thought Brexit was supposed to be a boon to the economy? That’s what we were promised before the referendum, and Rees-Mogg suggested as such again only last month.
Or are the currency markets just “wrong”?
To boost UK manufacturing exports
Currency traders are not selling the pound out of a desire to boost our exports.
You have truly taken on the Trump disease - the belief that everything is about you.
Just pointing out that despite diehard Remainers whinging, a falling pound makes British exports cheaper to buy abroad this increasing demand and also makes visits to London and the UK cheaper as well boosting tourists coming to the UK and staycations
The pound had been falling on and off since Cameron announces the referendum date. To what level will it drop and what threshold does it have to cross for you to say it has fallen too far?
For the domestic British tourist industry the £ can never fall too far
That statement is only true if the British tourist industry is staffed by people who are Ok with never buying imported goods nor going on holidays abroad. Basing an economy on selling accommodation and entertainment to people considerably richer than yourself because they are paid in hard currency does work, as many Vietnamese and Soviet prostitutes discovered. But it would not be the future I would choose for the next generation.
No - pretty much all UK car manufacturing would be gone within a year or two of no deal IMO. Rolls Royce, Aston and maybe a bit of Jaguar might be exceptions but I cant see the Japanese or French groups staying here.
It will take longer than that. Moving car manufacturing plants is not something you do in a hurry. Probably what will happen is that they'll continue manufacturing the current models here, but shift elsewhere for the next product cycle.
Can any of the Brexiters who haunt this board explain why the pound keeps falling as the Brexit saga continues?
I thought Brexit was supposed to be a boon to the economy? That’s what we were promised before the referendum, and Rees-Mogg suggested as such again only last month.
Or are the currency markets just “wrong”?
To boost UK manufacturing exports
Currency traders are not selling the pound out of a desire to boost our exports.
You have truly taken on the Trump disease - the belief that everything is about you.
Just pointing out that despite diehard Remainers whinging, a falling pound makes British exports cheaper to buy abroad this increasing demand and also makes visits to London and the UK cheaper as well boosting tourists coming to the UK and staycations
The pound had been falling on and off since Cameron announces the referendum date. To what level will it drop and what threshold does it have to cross for you to say it has fallen too far?
For the domestic British tourist industry the £ can never fall too far
That statement is only true if the British tourist industry is staffed by people who are Ok with never buying imported goods nor going on holidays abroad. Basing an economy on selling accommodation and entertainment to people considerably richer than yourself because they are paid in hard currency does work, as many Vietnamese and Soviet prostitutes discovered. But it would not be the future I would choose for the next generation.
By coup he means some angry tweets are coming...and then off on summer holidays and back for more of the same in a month or so.
Labour coups have been forecast and not happened for the last 50 years. Walkouts happen, as with the SDP, and without PR they end in disaster.
In despair at having been a semi-Thatcherite party from 1994-2015 they then elected today's equivalent of Benn, T, i.e. further left than Foot or Attlee. That's their problem. It doesn't work under FPTP.
Can any of the Brexiters who haunt this board explain why the pound keeps falling as the Brexit saga continues?
I thought Brexit was supposed to be a boon to the economy? That’s what we were promised before the referendum, and Rees-Mogg suggested as such again only last month.
Or are the currency markets just “wrong”?
To boost UK manufacturing exports
Currency traders are not selling the pound out of a desire to boost our exports.
You have truly taken on the Trump disease - the belief that everything is about you.
Just pointing out that despite diehard Remainers whinging, a falling pound makes British exports cheaper to buy abroad this increasing demand and also makes visits to London and the UK cheaper as well boosting tourists coming to the UK and staycations
The pound had been falling on and off since Cameron announces the referendum date. To what level will it drop and what threshold does it have to cross for you to say it has fallen too far?
For the domestic British tourist industry the £ can never fall too far
No - pretty much all UK car manufacturing would be gone within a year or two of no deal IMO. Rolls Royce, Aston and maybe a bit of Jaguar might be exceptions but I cant see the Japanese or French groups staying here.
It will take longer than that. Moving car manufacturing plants is not something you do in a hurry. Probably what will happen is that they'll continue manufacturing the current models here, but shift elsewhere for the next product cycle.
Maybe, but there is worldwide overcapacity in the industry, the market is in the doldrums at the moment and manufacturers are gearing up for a major shift to electric vehicles which involves a lot of retooling - all of which will encourage them to close existing facilities in the UK as soon as they can.
No - pretty much all UK car manufacturing would be gone within a year or two of no deal IMO. Rolls Royce, Aston and maybe a bit of Jaguar might be exceptions but I cant see the Japanese or French groups staying here.
It will take longer than that. Moving car manufacturing plants is not something you do in a hurry. Probably what will happen is that they'll continue manufacturing the current models here, but shift elsewhere for the next product cycle.
That means it takes longer for the industries to return when the Gov't returns to sanity, and those industries may well not return at all given the Japan-EU trade deal... Not just fucked, but permanently fucked.
That is a good point. It would have been a better point if it had answered the question I asked, which was "how low does the pound have to go before you think it's a problem?"
It's a question without an answer. Years ago you could get $5 for £1. If suddenly the currency market said that tomorrow would that be fantastic news? I don't think so.
Years from now £1 could be worth $1.20, $1.50, $2, $5, or 50c or 20c. What matters is not where we get currency wise but how and why and what effect it has on the economy.
It really isn't a question without an answer. Let me explain
You may recall that I keep insisting on (absolute) numbers, (relative) percentages (or variance) and thresholds as necessary for understanding. Without thresholds one cannot judge whether a course of action is successful or a characteristic acquired. Many people (not just you, btw) don't do this.
Can any of the Brexiters who haunt this board explain why the pound keeps falling as the Brexit saga continues?
I thought Brexit was supposed to be a boon to the economy? That’s what we were promised before the referendum, and Rees-Mogg suggested as such again only last month.
Or are the currency markets just “wrong”?
To boost UK manufacturing exports
Currency traders are not selling the pound out of a desire to boost our exports.
You have truly taken on the Trump disease - the belief that everything is about you.
Just pointing out that despite diehard Remainers whinging, a falling pound makes British exports cheaper to buy abroad this increasing demand and also makes visits to London and the UK cheaper as well boosting tourists coming to the UK and staycations
The pound had been falling on and off since Cameron announces the referendum date. To what level will it drop and what threshold does it have to cross for you to say it has fallen too far?
For the domestic British tourist industry the £ can never fall too far
That statement is only true if the British tourist industry is staffed by people who are Ok with never buying imported goods nor going on holidays abroad. Basing an economy on selling accommodation and entertainment to people considerably richer than yourself because they are paid in hard currency does work, as many Vietnamese and Soviet prostitutes discovered. But it would not be the future I would choose for the next generation.
The UK tourist industry relies on European workers, who will not come here if their wages are paid in £ are worth less in their home currency - they can earn more at home. It's very hard to recruit workers in hospitality already.
By coup he means some angry tweets are coming...and then off on summer holidays and back for more of the same in a month or so.
Yes, there's some journalistic spin there. If AC was involved in a coup, he wouldn't start by expelling himself (which is what openly endorsing another party is, as he will have known). I think his letter is an honest statement of his opinion, but not a bellwether for anyone except perhaps Tony.
Why shouldn`t he call Johnson a liar, when he is one? Parliamentary conventions apply only to Parliamentarians. Most of us are not, and are free to name Johnson for what he is.
True, but I think it's fair to say most people will think it ironic that the King of Spin writing to Mr Present But Not Involved called Blowjob BoJo, a man who was sacked from his first job for fraud, a liar.
It's a bit like Mao Zedong calling Khrushchev an unstable megalomaniac. You can see his point, but at the same time...
Sterling is at a higher level now than, for example, it was at the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017. And the high for 2019 is about... ooohhh... 1.31, so it's not like it's completely collapsed.
The big question that the UK economy has to answer, however, is this:
Does a c. 10% devaluation of Sterling boost exports meaningfully or not?
If it does, that's great, and part of resetting the British economy on a more sustainable path. If it does not, and sees British consumers borrow more to keep up consumption levels despite falling real incomes, then we should all be concerned.
Right now, the evidence from the PMIs is that export demand is not being stimulated. (Or rather, the global economic backdrop, with slowdowns in the US and Europe is such that any improved competitiveness is being offset by lower overall demand.) Consumer borrowing and the current account are also heading in the wrong direction.
Forget Brexit for a second: those numbers are simply horrible for the UK economy. The more unbalanced the UK economy is, the more painful bringing the current account and savings rates into balance becomes.
In the 243 years since American Independence in 1776(ish), the pound has been lower than this for only six months(ish). How low does it have to go before you think it's a problem?
When it starts to produce significant cost push inflation. Of which there is currently no sign.
Previous Leavers have cited an export boom as a reason to pursue a Weak Sterling policy. Now you are telling me it is not a problem because it does not produce cost price inflation. Taking you at your word for the moment, what is the level of cost price inflation you would consider significant, and how would you compensate for the lack of choice implied by foreign good becoming prohibitive?
We have an inflation target of 2% and CPIH is currently 1.9%. Imports form a part of the basket but only a part. If the cost of imports starts to drive us beyond, say, 2.5% then it would behove the BoE to take action which might well include a modest rise in interest rates.
As I said downthread the most obvious potential cause of this is oil which is increasing in cost due to Iran and is also priced in dollars. It's certainly something for the BoE to keep an eye on but to date there is very little sign that inflation is developing into a problem.
In the meantime we really should be holding our government to account about more important matters than a couple of cents off the price of sterling.
Didn’t they? More fool them. It was Cameron/Osbornism at its worst.
According to the National Audit Office, Help to Buy resulted in 14% more houses being built than would otherwise have been the case. It also helped tilt the market towards first-time buyers. It was a success, in other words; when it was introduced, the mortgage market was in a dire state.
Construction of new housing has boomed since 2013.
Every bit of green space within the Newcastle City boundaries is being filled in, my house included (ex green belt). Most of them are freehold now but with private management companies.
It’s a ticking time bomb as there is almost no regulation around this legal construct and any legal fees if challenged can be back-charged to the estate.
One thing to be avoided like the plague is "free conveyancing" offered by developers.
I agree but that’s only part of the problem. You can have an independent conveyancer but if you have to use help-to-buy you don’t have a choice whether to enter into these so called ‘fleecehold’ agreements.
Spec. developers won't let you hire a chartered surveyor to do a full survey before you buy a new house. I wonder what they have to hide ...
You arguably now need a survey more if you buy a glorified shed from the likes of Persimmon than if you buy a pile of solid stone and brick dating from 1750. The ancient pile has withstood 250 years of rain, wind, drought, etc.
Any Brexiteers on here claiming this is irrelevant / doesn't matter / won't affect people are just illustrating how far up their own colons they have their heads.
This really, really, matters to a LOT of British people, especially at this time of year.
Treat this lightly at your peril.
Absolutely the pound being more competitive is very relevant and matters hugely to all exporters making us more competitive on the global stage.
It might hurt those who are exporting to us, like the Irish, be a shame if that is compounded by their exports being less competitive and facing no deal now wouldn't it?
From memory
Tories win 2015 general election: GBP rises to 1.6 USD Cameron announces referendum date: GBP sinks gradually to 1.45 Referendum day: Farage concedes: GBP rises to hit 1.5 USD momentarily 4am after the result: GBP falls to 1.35 USD After the 2017 conference speech, GBP fall to 1.2 After the Deal is agreed, GBP rise to over 1.3 USD Parliament fails to ratify, May resigns, GBP falls to around 1.24 Boris becomes PM, stabilises briefly at 1.25 USD As No Deal becomes the governing assumption GBP sinks towards 1.2 USD again and may fall lower
Your predicted export boom triggered by a lower pound has not manifested between 2015 and the present, and although I understand the theoretical basis for your prediction, it has not so far actually happened.
The majority of exports come from a very small subset of the UK population of workers. A large number of them work for foreign owned companies who are cautious to invest to take advantage of the opportunity given the political uncertainty. In fact some are divesting such as Honda. At the moment there are not even supportive words to exporters let alone real action. As such we could be in for a large crash in the pound. £1 = $1 is possible.
German exports to the UK were down 22% last month so the adjustment is already underway. Forget buying a Mercedes or Audi you wont be able to afford the service costs.
Too late just forked out lots for one, well some months ago
This is a stupid tic of financial reporting where if X drops by 5%, they'll have somebody on who thinks it's going to drop by another 5%. This makes it look like a bigger story than it actually is to the viewer as they think that person represents an expert consensus, when in fact for everyone who thinks it'll drop by 5% there's an equal and opposite person who thinks it's going back up 5%, otherwise it would already have dropped the full 10%.
I’ll bear that in mind when my pension comes in 90 euros less than last month and 240 three months ago or so
And will they keep doing that every year? Those ewes will be tupped this autumn ready to produce lambs next spring. Or do they imagine that by then there will be some magical deal?
Are they going to do this for all the other exporters losing sales as a result of a No Deal exit?
Lamb burgers and Sunday roast for all.
Buy British Lamb campaign. Excellent.
Exporters will benefit from the low £, especially in the US and Asia where tariffs will be unchanged following even a No Deal Brexit
AIUI, the UK prefers only the premium cuts of lamb and sheep, and the low-value remainder of the carcasses are currently exported to the EU, so it will be mutton pies and 'mechanically recovered meat' that will be on our menu or have to be disposed of.
Comments
Alun Cairns, the Welsh secretary, agreed that farming was a winner from having access to EU markets but said there was potential for exports to new markets.
Asked for his response to threats of civil unrest, he claimed UK farmers could export their meat to Japan rather than Europe.
Wow. A state-enforced consumption of sheep meat would certainly be drastic. As for 'sell it to Japan instead' - how easy is that? Surely New Zealand would have something to say about it through some APEC mechanism.
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3635
Only 32 percent of all American voters say they "definitely" will vote for Trump if he is the Republican candidate in the 2020 presidential election, while 12 percent say they will consider voting for Trump.
But 54 percent of all American voters say they "definitely" will not vote for Trump, matching the "never Trump" total from a May 21 Quinnipiac University National Poll. This "never Trump" tally includes 57 percent of independent voters...
It’s a ticking time bomb as there is almost no regulation around this legal construct and any legal fees if challenged can be back-charged to the estate.
How much would the policy have cost had they simply directed the money at local authorities to build more housing rather than lining the pockets of the developers?
But then there has been consistent polling to suggest that your Brexit voter on the street is aware of the economic impact but are still prepared to vote for it: https://www.ft.com/content/1b636ba8-76b3-11e7-a3e8-60495fe6ca71
Perhaps the question is, what did Brexiteers feel brexit would give them that is worth paying a significant economic price for?
Now that's a tricky one...
You can have an independent conveyancer but if you have to use help-to-buy you don’t have a choice whether to enter into these so called ‘fleecehold’ agreements.
Conflicting aims which are a big part of why politicians have struggled to deliver, and why inevitably a large proportion of the leave voters will feel let down even if somehow the current govt executes Brexit well.
You have truly taken on the Trump disease - the belief that everything is about you.
No-one is asking the government about the trade deficit, or the balance of payments, and unless someone starts to do so it will surely lead to a painful reckoning.
The British obsession with valuing according to the 'number of bedrooms' has lead to appalling value on newbuilds.
Precisely noone (Who had any sort of money or power influence) believed May would actually go ahead with Brexit without a deal !
Government will buy livestock if tariffs drive up prices
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/no-deal-brexit-500m-plan-to-help-farmers-bx5pnx9qq
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/26/trump-fox-news-biden-poll-1437265
There will be some campaigning in the meantime, after the Democrats have chosen their candidate...
Are they going to do this for all the other exporters losing sales as a result of a No Deal exit?
The technical competence and commitment to long term financial prudence of the new cabinet vs old cabinet will also be factor in the drop on top of the chance of no deal.
Buy British Lamb campaign. Excellent.
Exporters will benefit from the low £, especially in the US and Asia where tariffs will be unchanged following even a No Deal Brexit
No amount of bribery will keep car or other Just in Time manufacturing in business. IMO.
Donald J. Trump
11 mins ·
Wow! Morning Joe & Psycho ratings have really crashed. Very small audience. People are tired of hearing Fake News delivered with an anger that is not to be believed. Sad, when the show was sane, they helped get me elected. Thanks! Was on all the time. Lost all of its juice!
Pretty soon this is all going to add up to some serious money. Is this is what is meant by the Brexit bonus?
Years from now £1 could be worth $1.20, $1.50, $2, $5, or 50c or 20c. What matters is not where we get currency wise but how and why and what effect it has on the economy.
In despair at having been a semi-Thatcherite party from 1994-2015 they then elected today's equivalent of Benn, T, i.e. further left than Foot or Attlee. That's their problem. It doesn't work under FPTP.
Not just fucked, but permanently fucked.
You may recall that I keep insisting on (absolute) numbers, (relative) percentages (or variance) and thresholds as necessary for understanding. Without thresholds one cannot judge whether a course of action is successful or a characteristic acquired. Many people (not just you, btw) don't do this.
It's a bit like Mao Zedong calling Khrushchev an unstable megalomaniac. You can see his point, but at the same time...
As I said downthread the most obvious potential cause of this is oil which is increasing in cost due to Iran and is also priced in dollars. It's certainly something for the BoE to keep an eye on but to date there is very little sign that inflation is developing into a problem.
In the meantime we really should be holding our government to account about more important matters than a couple of cents off the price of sterling.
You arguably now need a survey more if you buy a glorified shed from the likes of Persimmon than if you buy a pile of solid stone and brick dating from 1750. The ancient pile has withstood 250 years of rain, wind, drought, etc.