The main problem we face this time is that the trade balance is significantly worse than 1985 so we are more dependent on foreign investment than before. Foreign investors are sitting on their hands and exporters will not take advantage of the exchange rate until they understand the future trade deals. Thus our only route is to cut imports. This will happen through the exchange rate.
PRIME Minister Boris Johnson left via the back door after a meeting with First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at Bute House.
It came after Johnson was fiercely booed by crowds when he arrived earlier in the day.
He at least went there and met her at the front door, no need for Boris to have to face a mob of ranting Nats on the way out which would delay his journey
Poor diddums, he does not even have the cojones to come back out the front door, laughing stock of Europe. Back Door Boris.
Boris met Sturgeon at the front door, it is far too big a security risk for a sitting PM to waste time confronting a mob of ranting Nats when he can just head out the back and off
Ha Ha Ha Ha, one of those Boos may have incapacitated him right enough. He is a big jessie boy, scared to face public opinion and has to have only hand picked ar*e lickers before he can try to act the big man. Cowardy Custard ran away.
Crap Boris went to Ednburgh and faced ranting nats head on, what do you want Boris to have a punch up with them on the way out?
What a lickspittle you are. Pathetic reply. Your choice of words "ranting" - what a loser , they were exercising their public right to show their opinion of him , peacefully. He is such a shallow ego that it was too much for him that he CHOSE to slink out the back door rather than hear people booing him. I am sure he would have done the same if they had been cheering and chanting his name . Then you suggest he punches people, are you totally stark raving mad enough to suggest the |PM should get involved in a punch up just because he is criticised. You have become unhinged.
This has now become like the Falklands War. Days before the Armada arrives, a reasonable solution might be found. But Bonkers Boris is on a war footing. Their eyes are alight. They will try to crash us out. They will try to sink any Belgranos in the water. Dominic Cummings will adore bringing the whole edifice crashing down. It's what he lives for: the smoke in the rubble is the air he breathes.
If Britain wins, then the tories will land the biggest majority since Thatcher.
But this isn't 1982. The EU is not an 'enemy,' despite what Bonkers Boris believes and they're not a bunch of amateurish Argentinians who would rather be back home.
I thought tired war-time cliches were meant to be the preserve of Leavers?
I'm pretty sure there's a lot of correlation between those who most opposed the Iraq war and those who oppose Brexit.
When the Iraq invasion started being a thing, I got interested, explored the topic, thought about it and quickly came to the conclusion it would be a huge mess because it was predicated on a set of almost certainly false assumptions. It turned out as I expected, including interestingly that there wasn't much in the way of WMD and that fact would be a big scandal.
Similarly with Brexit. I could see from the off that it was built on a set of false assumptions and this would lead to a big mess as those assumptions unravel. It hasn't fully played out yet, so we will have to see if Brexit is successfully delivered and we all move on. I am still confident of my original expectation of an intractable mess.
I should say, I am an imposter on this site. I am not good at predictions , but always confident of the Iraq and Brexit ones.
You are right about both. Like a fool, I supported the Iraq War initially. I never dreamed a British PM would lie to the country over such a thing.
One thing has surprised me about Brexit, which I guess means I was wrong in that respect. The extent to which people are prepared to deny reality. Three years in it was obvious to most people that the Iraq invasion hadn't gone to plan. The cognitive dissonance on the Brexit shambles is off the scale. I think this means supporters of Brexit are much more invested in their project than Iraq War supporters were.
The comparison is not equal.
That is because we did actually invade Iraq. "Three years in ...."
We have not yet Brexited. We are still talking about it.
Good point. Equally, supporters of the Iraq invasion didn't attempt to thwart their own project because they didn't like the implications.
He seems not to have factored in the critical risk to democracy in sending such a letter.
If I had a risk management consultant who advised me to send the letter without balancing the competing risks, I'd fire him - and advise that none should employ this fool.
October 31st is an arbitrary deadline not of our choosing, why on earth is it so important?
As the current Commons clearly will never vote for or implement Brexit so Boris has to confront it head on
Are you listening to the car crash on Radio 4 currently? What do you say to these sheep farmers? Clearly the minister has no answer whatsoever.
Many of those sheep farmers voted Leave and there is a whole market outside the EU as well as a domestic one, while EU trade will still continue even with tariffs but the will of the people must be respected
So you weren't listening then re your comments about extra internal/external markets on 1 Nov.
Yes lots voted leave. I have done many stupid things in my time as well.
So when you make a decision you must go through with it regardless. No option to re-evaluate. I refer you to my admission that I have made many stupid decisions in my time. If I followed through with every one I wouldn't be here to type now.
Opinium has 45% of voters now backing No Deal, more than the 28% for revoke and the 13% for extend again combined in its latest poll and political report last weekend
It also has 40% of respondents (not voters, as you inaccurately post) "Supportive of remaining in the EU", 14% of "a Brexit where the UK is closely aligned with the EU', and only 38% in favour of "a clear break from the EU' - which is a remarkably sanitised way to refer to No Deal, though at least better than "clean break".
So it seems quite clear, to me at least, that a significant majority of voters will be rather unhappy with the consequences of No Deal.
This has now become like the Falklands War. Days before the Armada arrives, a reasonable solution might be found. But Bonkers Boris is on a war footing. Their eyes are alight. They will try to crash us out. They will try to sink any Belgranos in the water. Dominic Cummings will adore bringing the whole edifice crashing down. It's what he lives for: the smoke in the rubble is the air he breathes.
If Britain wins, then the tories will land the biggest majority since Thatcher.
But this isn't 1982. The EU is not an 'enemy,' despite what Bonkers Boris believes and they're not a bunch of amateurish Argentinians who would rather be back home.
I thought tired war-time cliches were meant to be the preserve of Leavers?
Think that was a reference to WWII? As far as I'm aware I'm the first person to compare the situation to the build up to the Falklands War.
There are some interesting political parallels. It's not a perfect one, of course, but for those of us who can remember the before, during and after of that saga there are some worthwhile comparisons.
If Johnson pulls this off he will win a landslide.
This has now become like the Falklands War. Days before the Armada arrives, a reasonable solution might be found. But Bonkers Boris is on a war footing. Their eyes are alight. They will try to crash us out. They will try to sink any Belgranos in the water. Dominic Cummings will adore bringing the whole edifice crashing down. It's what he lives for: the smoke in the rubble is the air he breathes.
If Britain wins, then the tories will land the biggest majority since Thatcher.
But this isn't 1982. The EU is not an 'enemy,' despite what Bonkers Boris believes and they're not a bunch of amateurish Argentinians who would rather be back home.
I thought tired war-time cliches were meant to be the preserve of Leavers?
Brexit is not the Falklands. It is Iraq, Suez, the fall of Singapore and the Charge of the Light Brigade. It is the Jonestown Massacre, the Tanganikya Groundnut Scheme, and Gallipoli.
The main problem we face this time is that the trade balance is significantly worse than 1985 so we are more dependent on foreign investment than before. Foreign investors are sitting on their hands and exporters will not take advantage of the exchange rate until they understand the future trade deals. Thus our only route is to cut imports. This will happen through the exchange rate.
I don't understand your point about foreign investment
'My sense is that all the happy optimistic talk about Ms Davidson becoming first minister in 2021 has had an unfortunate altercation with political reality. There is a glumness in Tory circles these days which accepts that preventing the SNP and Greens from winning a pro-independence majority at Holyrood is about as good as it can get for the Tories. By then Ms Davidson would have been in post for a decade; time perhaps to conclude she’d run her race as far as it could be taken.'
Unfortunately where we're all at, more or less.
'Some of the despair apparent in Scottish Tory circles is masked by what you might deem the frenzied hope of the riverboat gambler down to his last dollar who thinks there’s still a chance that the roulette wheel might save him. They have, in the words of one Tory MSP, spent much of the past three years wading through “a tunnel of shit” and, this being so, almost anything must be preferable to that. “I feel quite elated” says another Tory parliamentarian, consoling himself with the thought that Mr Johnson “is going to piss off a lot of people I don’t like”.
This is where British politics is these days: satisfaction comes from other people’s unhappiness and their defeat is more important than your victory.'
I'm pretty sure there's a lot of correlation between those who most opposed the Iraq war and those who oppose Brexit.
When the Iraq invasion started being a thing, I got interested, explored the topic, thought about it and quickly came to the conclusion it would be a huge mess because it was predicated on a set of almost certainly false assumptions. It turned out as I expected, including interestingly that there wasn't much in the way of WMD and that fact would be a big scandal.
Similarly with Brexit. I could see from the off that it was built on a set of false assumptions and this would lead to a big mess as those assumptions unravel. It hasn't fully played out yet, so we will have to see if Brexit is successfully delivered and we all move on. I am still confident of my original expectation of an intractable mess.
I should say, I am an imposter on this site. I am not good at predictions , but always confident of the Iraq and Brexit ones.
You are right about both. Like a fool, I supported the Iraq War initially. I never dreamed a British PM would lie to the country over such a thing.
One thing has surprised me about Brexit, which I guess means I was wrong in that respect. The extent to which people are prepared to deny reality. Three years in it was obvious to most people that the Iraq invasion hadn't gone to plan. The cognitive dissonance on the Brexit shambles is off the scale. I think this means supporters of Brexit are much more invested in their project than Iraq War supporters were.
If we do no deal it will be interesting to see in 10 years time what proportion of leavers will remember accurately which way they voted when polled.
Yougov have recalling support for Iraq war at 37% in 2015 vs 54% support in 2003. In the US it dropped from 63% at the time to 38% recalling their support.
Similar will happen with leave in a no deal scenario.
Iraq is now a largely peaceful democracy
Unlike the UK who appoint new PMs via allowing a few unhinged old people to choose
He seems not to have factored in the critical risk to democracy in sending such a letter.
If I had a risk management consultant who advised me to send the letter without balancing the competing risks, I'd fire him - and advise that none should employ this fool.
October 31st is an arbitrary deadline not of our choosing, why on earth is it so important?
As the current Commons clearly will never vote for or implement Brexit so Boris has to confront it head on
Are you listening to the car crash on Radio 4 currently? What do you say to these sheep farmers? Clearly the minister has no answer whatsoever.
Many of those sheep farmers voted Leave and there is a whole market outside the EU as well as a domestic one, while EU trade will still continue even with tariffs but the will of the people must be respected
So you weren't listening then re your comments about extra internal/external markets on 1 Nov.
Yes lots voted leave. I have done many stupid things in my time as well.
So when you make a decision you must go through with it regardless. No option to re-evaluate. I refer you to my admission that I have made many stupid decisions in my time. If I followed through with every one I wouldn't be here to type now.
Opinium has 45% of voters now backing No Deal, more than the 28% for revoke and the 13% for extend again combined in its latest poll and political report last weekend
It also has 40% of respondents (not voters, as you inaccurately post) "Supportive of remaining in the EU", 14% of "a Brexit where the UK is closely aligned with the EU', and only 38% in favour of "a clear break from the EU' - which is a remarkably sanitised way to refer to No Deal, though at least better than "clean break".
So it seems quite clear, to me at least, that a significant majority of voters will be rather unhappy with the consequences of No Deal.
The real problem with all the polls and recent election results is they all show a nation as divided and paralysed as the Parliament which represents them.
Just an aside, but complacency or playing poker or wailing and gnashing of teeth is fine for an internet forum. Politicians, however, might want to actually do something if they want things to change.
Having voted to leave and then thrice against a deal, MPs aghast at no deal might consider changing their tactics.
And not this pathetic dithering stuff. The same three options remain (ahem). Pick one, or throw the choice back to the electorate.
He seems not to have factored in the critical risk to democracy in sending such a letter.
If I had a risk management consultant who advised me to send the letter without balancing the competing risks, I'd fire him - and advise that none should employ this fool.
October 31st is an arbitrary deadline not of our choosing, why on earth is it so important?
As the current Commons clearly will never vote for or implement Brexit so Boris has to confront it head on
Are you listening to the car crash on Radio 4 currently? What do you say to these sheep farmers? Clearly the minister has no answer whatsoever.
Many of those sheep farmers voted Leave and there is a whole market outside the EU as well as a domestic one, while EU trade will still continue even with tariffs but the will of the people must be respected
So you weren't listening then re your comments about extra internal/external markets on 1 Nov.
Yes lots voted leave. I have done many stupid things in my time as well.
So when you make a decision you must go through with it regardless. No option to re-evaluate. I refer you to my admission that I have made many stupid decisions in my time. If I followed through with every one I wouldn't be here to type now.
Opinium has 45% of voters now backing No Deal, more than the 28% for revoke and the 13% for extend again combined in its latest poll and political report last weekend
It also has 40% of respondents (not voters, as you inaccurately post) "Supportive of remaining in the EU", 14% of "a Brexit where the UK is closely aligned with the EU', and only 38% in favour of "a clear break from the EU' - which is a remarkably sanitised way to refer to No Deal, though at least better than "clean break".
So it seems quite clear, to me at least, that a significant majority of voters will be rather unhappy with the consequences of No Deal.
The real problem with all the polls and recent election results is they all show a nation as divided and paralysed as the Parliament which represents them.
This has now become like the Falklands War. Days before the Armada arrives, a reasonable solution might be found. But Bonkers Boris is on a war footing. Their eyes are alight. They will try to crash us out. They will try to sink any Belgranos in the water. Dominic Cummings will adore bringing the whole edifice crashing down. It's what he lives for: the smoke in the rubble is the air he breathes.
If Britain wins, then the tories will land the biggest majority since Thatcher.
But this isn't 1982. The EU is not an 'enemy,' despite what Bonkers Boris believes and they're not a bunch of amateurish Argentinians who would rather be back home.
I thought tired war-time cliches were meant to be the preserve of Leavers?
Brexit is not the Falklands. It is Iraq, Suez, the fall of Singapore and the Charge of the Light Brigade. It is the Jonestown Massacre, the Tanganikya Groundnut Scheme, and Gallipoli.
Yes, well that's absolutely true, of course.
I won't for now labour the point though perhaps I could offer up a thread piece to Mike on it. But there are some intriguing parallels nonetheless. A governing party deeply unpopular and apparently out of touch, defence cuts, a useless and wildly left-wing leader of the Labour Party, and then a spark 8000 miles away. What came next? Brokering a deal, a wary Parliament, the increasing jingoism of the Red Tops, the armada sailing south, the fight for Port Stanley, the massive outpouring of nationalism, the triumphant election of Mrs Thatcher the following year in a landslide. The crushing of Corbyn. I mean Foot. Blah blah.
But you're right, and it also falls down on a number of levels. I do not believe that Boris will succeed with this. The battle is about more than a lump of wind-ravaged rock that only sheep want to live on. It's about the entire infrastructure of the United Kingdom both politically and economically. It's also about the same for all member states of the EU. The ramifications of this going south (and I'm not referring to the Armada) are colossal.
If Boris, Cummings, Raab and co persist on this path, and I have no doubt they will until they are forcibly halted, I genuinely think it will collapse this country.
An interesting market for B&R would be turnout this Thursday.....I reckon 30% tops given the its the holidays.... despite hard work by LDs I cant see Plaid or the Greens bussing helpers to get the vote out and as for the BXP bus, that came to a sticky end.
I'm watching the currency with deep concern, but not for the usual reasons. When we first went to Thailand, to visit family there, the baht was about 70 to the £. It fell quite a bit over the years but has now fallen to 37.5. Some of this is due to the baht strengthening but the past few weeks have shown a fall from the mid 40'as to the present level.Might have top rethink a Christmas visit to our grandchildren. It's worse for my son, some of whose commission is paid in £, but he has to pay school fees etc in baht!
'My sense is that all the happy optimistic talk about Ms Davidson becoming first minister in 2021 has had an unfortunate altercation with political reality. There is a glumness in Tory circles these days which accepts that preventing the SNP and Greens from winning a pro-independence majority at Holyrood is about as good as it can get for the Tories. By then Ms Davidson would have been in post for a decade; time perhaps to conclude she’d run her race as far as it could be taken.'
Unfortunately where we're all at, more or less.
'Some of the despair apparent in Scottish Tory circles is masked by what you might deem the frenzied hope of the riverboat gambler down to his last dollar who thinks there’s still a chance that the roulette wheel might save him. They have, in the words of one Tory MSP, spent much of the past three years wading through “a tunnel of shit” and, this being so, almost anything must be preferable to that. “I feel quite elated” says another Tory parliamentarian, consoling himself with the thought that Mr Johnson “is going to piss off a lot of people I don’t like”.
This is where British politics is these days: satisfaction comes from other people’s unhappiness and their defeat is more important than your victory.'
They are in same boat as Labour , just reiterating every day that there should not be an "Indyref2" has really pissed people off big time. Both circling the drain now, both have crap leaders , both have no other policy than "SNPBAD" "No Surrender". Meanwhile their puppet masters are ruining the country.
I'm watching the currency with deep concern, but not for the usual reasons. When we first went to Thailand, to visit family there, the baht was about 70 to the £. It fell quite a bit over the years but has now fallen to 37.5. Some of this is due to the baht strengthening but the past few weeks have shown a fall from the mid 40'as to the present level.Might have top rethink a Christmas visit to our grandchildren. It's worse for my son, some of whose commission is paid in £, but he has to pay school fees etc in baht!
Snap. And the other 80 million British trips abroad per year.
Think that was a reference to WWII? As far as I'm aware I'm the first person to compare the situation to the build up to the Falklands War.
There are some interesting political parallels. It's not a perfect one, of course, but for those of us who can remember the before, during and after of that saga there are some worthwhile comparisons.
If Johnson pulls this off he will win a landslide.
It's a good comparison in that the drive is on to brew up a nationalistic fervour about 'getting out' on 31 Oct - the prospect presented as the opportunity to score a great 'victory' for Britain over the doubters, the quislings, the commies and the foreigners.
And, yes, framing it like this will deliver a big win if the nation buys into it.
My sense, however, is that there is a narrow but decisive cognescenti over ignorami majority in the country, and therefore the chances of the Johnson strategy paying off are not high.
But that could be hope over reason. It certainly might work. We could with stuck with this shallow, sordid character as PM for quite some time.
Cons at 8-1 to win Brecon, seems a reasonable chance bet to me given current reactions. No point going for Lib Dems at 1/18.
I love good odds but I don't like chucking away money.
I'm not sure what you mean by 'current reactions' but I see some really negative material appearing overnight. The Boris Johnson honeymoon lasted around 2 days. It's rapidly going south. I expect the tories to lose the seat badly.
This is a bit like backing Vettel in 2019. It might occasionally look tempting but you'll lose your money. The Lib Dems are Hamilton with a 15 second lead and half a lap to go right now.
Maybe Boris fronting up a 'walk away no deal ' commitment has served to confirm the absolute polarisation between leave and remain
I supported TM deal all along as it was a compromise and we would have left now with a good relationship with the EU for our ongoing trade talks.
I strongly criticize all those mps from each opposing view from not coming together in the interest of the Country
From this point on I think public opinion is going to be very important to both Boris, but also his opponents. If we see Boris and the conservatives receiving public support we can all cry 'they do not know what they are doing' but a no deal disaster will become inevitable
I listened to a report on the early business news from Ireland and in particular their agriculture industry and they are facing utter devastation if we no deal. Indeed across the EU people and communities will be economically wrecked as their markets are lost through tariffs etc
And all this due to idiotic politicians sacrificing jobs and communities both here and in Europe over opposing ideology
It makes you want to weep. And yes if we end with a no deal I resign from the conservative party
Cons at 8-1 to win Brecon, seems a reasonable chance bet to me given current reactions. No point going for Lib Dems at 1/18.
I love good odds but I don't like chucking away money.
I'm not sure what you mean by 'current reactions' but I see some really negative material appearing overnight. The Boris Johnson honeymoon lasted around 2 days. It's rapidly going south. I expect the tories to lose the seat badly.
You must be looking elsewhere. Apart from some boos in Scotland he hasn't put a foot wrong.
Maybe Boris fronting up a 'walk away no deal ' commitment has served to confirm the absolute polarisation between leave and remain
I supported TM deal all along as it was a compromise and we would have left now with a good relationship with the EU for our ongoing trade talks.
I strongly criticize all those mps from each opposing view from not coming together in the interest of the Country
From this point on I think public opinion is going to be very important to both Boris, but also his opponents. If we see Boris and the conservatives receiving public support we can all cry 'they do not know what they are doing' but a no deal disaster will become inevitable
I listened to a report on the early business news from Ireland and in particular their agriculture industry and they are facing utter devastation if we no deal. Indeed across the EU people and communities will be economically wrecked as their markets are lost through tariffs etc
And all this due to idiotic politicians sacrificing jobs and communities both here and in Europe over opposing ideology
It makes you want to weep. And yes if we end with a no deal I resign from the conservative party
This is all the UK's doing - the EU did not tell us to have a referendum. It's an entirely self-inflicted wound, utterly predictable in its outcome to anyone with a basic grasp of politics, economics and human nature.
Cons at 8-1 to win Brecon, seems a reasonable chance bet to me given current reactions. No point going for Lib Dems at 1/18.
I love good odds but I don't like chucking away money.
I'm not sure what you mean by 'current reactions' but I see some really negative material appearing overnight. The Boris Johnson honeymoon lasted around 2 days. It's rapidly going south. I expect the tories to lose the seat badly.
I'm afraid for all of us Boris' honeymoon is going fine, the Tories will lose Brecon though - it's what Gov'ts do (well unless the opposition party is amazingly shit a la Copeland but that's rare)
This is a bit like backing Vettel in 2019. It might occasionally look tempting but you'll lose your money. The Lib Dems are Hamilton with a 15 second lead and half a lap to go right now.
Cons at 8-1 to win Brecon, seems a reasonable chance bet to me given current reactions. No point going for Lib Dems at 1/18.
I love good odds but I don't like chucking away money.
I'm not sure what you mean by 'current reactions' but I see some really negative material appearing overnight. The Boris Johnson honeymoon lasted around 2 days. It's rapidly going south. I expect the tories to lose the seat badly.
You must be looking elsewhere. Apart from some boos in Scotland he hasn't put a foot wrong.
Erm, well the start of his problems are all over the news this morning (apart from the hideous cock-up by the Met police over Carl Beech.)
Cons at 8-1 to win Brecon, seems a reasonable chance bet to me given current reactions. No point going for Lib Dems at 1/18.
I love good odds but I don't like chucking away money.
I'm not sure what you mean by 'current reactions' but I see some really negative material appearing overnight. The Boris Johnson honeymoon lasted around 2 days. It's rapidly going south. I expect the tories to lose the seat badly.
You must be looking elsewhere. Apart from some boos in Scotland he hasn't put a foot wrong.
Did you not listen to his rambling nonsensical interview with Sarah Smith in Scotland yesterday?
Cons at 8-1 to win Brecon, seems a reasonable chance bet to me given current reactions. No point going for Lib Dems at 1/18.
I love good odds but I don't like chucking away money.
I'm not sure what you mean by 'current reactions' but I see some really negative material appearing overnight. The Boris Johnson honeymoon lasted around 2 days. It's rapidly going south. I expect the tories to lose the seat badly.
You must be looking elsewhere. Apart from some boos in Scotland he hasn't put a foot wrong.
Erm, well the start of his problems are all over the news this morning (apart from the hideous cock-up by the Med police over Carl Beech.)
Cons at 8-1 to win Brecon, seems a reasonable chance bet to me given current reactions. No point going for Lib Dems at 1/18.
I love good odds but I don't like chucking away money.
I'm not sure what you mean by 'current reactions' but I see some really negative material appearing overnight. The Boris Johnson honeymoon lasted around 2 days. It's rapidly going south. I expect the tories to lose the seat badly.
You must be looking elsewhere. Apart from some boos in Scotland he hasn't put a foot wrong.
Did you not listen to his rambling nonsensical interview with Sarah Smith in Scotland yesterday?
Nope and nor did 99% of the population hear anymore than a snippit.
Cons at 8-1 to win Brecon, seems a reasonable chance bet to me given current reactions. No point going for Lib Dems at 1/18.
I love good odds but I don't like chucking away money.
I'm not sure what you mean by 'current reactions' but I see some really negative material appearing overnight. The Boris Johnson honeymoon lasted around 2 days. It's rapidly going south. I expect the tories to lose the seat badly.
You must be looking elsewhere. Apart from some boos in Scotland he hasn't put a foot wrong.
Erm, well the start of his problems are all over the news this morning (apart from the hideous cock-up by the Met police over Carl Beech.)
I've got the news on and I haven't seen these issues. Surely Carl Beech is a much bigger problem for Tom Watson and may even be terminal for his political career.
Maybe Boris fronting up a 'walk away no deal ' commitment has served to confirm the absolute polarisation between leave and remain
I supported TM deal all along as it was a compromise and we would have left now with a good relationship with the EU for our ongoing trade talks.
I strongly criticize all those mps from each opposing view from not coming together in the interest of the Country
From this point on I think public opinion is going to be very important to both Boris, but also his opponents. If we see Boris and the conservatives receiving public support we can all cry 'they do not know what they are doing' but a no deal disaster will become inevitable
I listened to a report on the early business news from Ireland and in particular their agriculture industry and they are facing utter devastation if we no deal. Indeed across the EU people and communities will be economically wrecked as their markets are lost through tariffs etc
And all this due to idiotic politicians sacrificing jobs and communities both here and in Europe over opposing ideology
It makes you want to weep. And yes if we end with a no deal I resign from the conservative party
This is all the UK's doing - the EU did not tell us to have a referendum. It's an entirely self-inflicted wound, utterly predictable in its outcome to anyone with a basic grasp of politics, economics and human nature.
Absolutely right. If we leave with No Deal, I wonder who will be gold-plated in five or ten years time. It sure as hell won't be 'yer ordinary Leave voters'.
Cons at 8-1 to win Brecon, seems a reasonable chance bet to me given current reactions. No point going for Lib Dems at 1/18.
I love good odds but I don't like chucking away money.
I'm not sure what you mean by 'current reactions' but I see some really negative material appearing overnight. The Boris Johnson honeymoon lasted around 2 days. It's rapidly going south. I expect the tories to lose the seat badly.
You must be looking elsewhere. Apart from some boos in Scotland he hasn't put a foot wrong.
Erm, well the start of his problems are all over the news this morning (apart from the hideous cock-up by the Med police over Carl Beech.)
Cons at 8-1 to win Brecon, seems a reasonable chance bet to me given current reactions. No point going for Lib Dems at 1/18.
I love good odds but I don't like chucking away money.
I'm not sure what you mean by 'current reactions' but I see some really negative material appearing overnight. The Boris Johnson honeymoon lasted around 2 days. It's rapidly going south. I expect the tories to lose the seat badly.
You must be looking elsewhere. Apart from some boos in Scotland he hasn't put a foot wrong.
Did you not listen to his rambling nonsensical interview with Sarah Smith in Scotland yesterday?
Nope and nor did 99% of the population hear anymore than a snippit.
Every single major front page today reports on Sterling slumping, apart from the Daily Mail which has a brilliant scoop. And, no, that's not just a problem for Tom Watson. Tsk. Sir Richard Henriques is calling for the a criminal investigation, one that would involve senior officers. Expect Ms Patel to make a statement before long and probably the PM too.
But back to sterling, headlines about it slumping because of the Govt's no deal rhetoric are really bad for them. Those are newspaper headlines and the lead on Sky News. So there!
This is where British politics is these days: satisfaction comes from other people’s unhappiness and their defeat is more important than your victory.'
Certainly get the impression that much of the enthusiasm for Trump amongst certain people over here is the knowledge that he pisses off 'woke libs' like nobody since peak Jim Davidson.
This is a bit like backing Vettel in 2019. It might occasionally look tempting but you'll lose your money. The Lib Dems are Hamilton with a 15 second lead and half a lap to go right now.
And then rain descends ....
Indeed. But Hamilton has lost one wet race in the last five years, so other than that being a reminder that nothing in life is certain, the point stands.
Cons at 8-1 to win Brecon, seems a reasonable chance bet to me given current reactions. No point going for Lib Dems at 1/18.
I love good odds but I don't like chucking away money.
I'm not sure what you mean by 'current reactions' but I see some really negative material appearing overnight. The Boris Johnson honeymoon lasted around 2 days. It's rapidly going south. I expect the tories to lose the seat badly.
You must be looking elsewhere. Apart from some boos in Scotland he hasn't put a foot wrong.
Erm, well the start of his problems are all over the news this morning (apart from the hideous cock-up by the Med police over Carl Beech.)
Maybe Boris fronting up a 'walk away no deal ' commitment has served to confirm the absolute polarisation between leave and remain
I supported TM deal all along as it was a compromise and we would have left now with a good relationship with the EU for our ongoing trade talks.
I strongly criticize all those mps from each opposing view from not coming together in the interest of the Country
From this point on I think public opinion is going to be very important to both Boris, but also his opponents. If we see Boris and the conservatives receiving public support we can all cry 'they do not know what they are doing' but a no deal disaster will become inevitable
I listened to a report on the early business news from Ireland and in particular their agriculture industry and they are facing utter devastation if we no deal. Indeed across the EU people and communities will be economically wrecked as their markets are lost through tariffs etc
And all this due to idiotic politicians sacrificing jobs and communities both here and in Europe over opposing ideology
It makes you want to weep. And yes if we end with a no deal I resign from the conservative party
This is all the UK's doing - the EU did not tell us to have a referendum. It's an entirely self-inflicted wound, utterly predictable in its outcome to anyone with a basic grasp of politics, economics and human nature.
It is absolutely not all the UK's doing. Unless you're saying the EU is some sort of prison that we shouldn't leave, the UK was perfectly entitled to have a referendum and is perfectly entitled to leave and we are free to do what we want without it being held against us.
Cameron gave the EU a chance at reform prior to the referendum and they chose not to reform. Why should we remain tethered to Europe just because they want to have their cake and eat it too - they want to ignore us, not reform but maintain an open border with at least one part of our country? Doesn't work that way.
Cons at 8-1 to win Brecon, seems a reasonable chance bet to me given current reactions. No point going for Lib Dems at 1/18.
I love good odds but I don't like chucking away money.
I'm not sure what you mean by 'current reactions' but I see some really negative material appearing overnight. The Boris Johnson honeymoon lasted around 2 days. It's rapidly going south. I expect the tories to lose the seat badly.
You must be looking elsewhere. Apart from some boos in Scotland he hasn't put a foot wrong.
Did you not listen to his rambling nonsensical interview with Sarah Smith in Scotland yesterday?
Nope and nor did 99% of the population hear anymore than a snippit.
When the spotlight falls on him, as it inevitably will, perhaps a few more people will conclude that he is winging it and not very convincingly.
Any Brexiteers on here claiming this is irrelevant / doesn't matter / won't affect people are just illustrating how far up their own colons they have their heads.
This really, really, matters to a LOT of British people, especially at this time of year.
The EU love last minute cobbled solutions, so I struggle to believe that it could not do it. Politically they do not want to. Which people may say is fair enough, but theres a lot of people on our side and theirs insisting no flexibility is possible in an effort to pretend theres no choice involved.
We were told, literally, hundreds of times, on here by leavers that a "fudged" solution would appear just before the 29th March deadline because that's how the EU operates.
Kle4 is right, though. They could do it - but they do not want to. And very probably won't.
What is impressive about the EU at the moment is the support they are giving to one of the smaller members, Ireland, which is, in other activities, in dispute with the 'management'. This whole 'Britain Leaving' idea is our idea alone, and the disruption to EU activity is solely of our making.
The Greek dispute was apparently largely the Greeks making (although the auditors had a lot to do with it) and as a consequence they had to pull their own chestnuts out of the fire.
As UK will have to. And look what happened to the 'responsible' Greek governing party!
The greek tragedy was because the EU ignored its own rules and let them join the Euro fully in the knowledge they were unfit to do so.
When it turned out bad, the EU simply forgot its own role in the chaos and rushed to bail out Mrs Merkels banks,
Like almost all tragedies and crises, there is no single villain.
The EU should not have relaxed the rules on Euro membership. The Greeks should not have issued around one third more debt between 2000 and 2008 than they said they did.
If the first of these did not happen, there would have been no Greek crisis. If the second did not, then the same is likely true. The Greek boom - which saw household incomes soar to the same level of Germans in just six or seven years - was a direct consequence of the government spending dramatically ahead of revenues.
So Sky News has a headline about the pound being a bit lower than it was yesterday. The same Sky News that has a lower reach according to Barb than Sky Witness, Spike and Pick TV. I'm sure Boris is trembling at the thought of Adam Boulton angrily proclaiming Boris' honeymoon over to his 20,000 viewers!
The honeymoon will of course end, probably at the by-election as has been stated but he's had a brilliant week so far.
Cons at 8-1 to win Brecon, seems a reasonable chance bet to me given current reactions. No point going for Lib Dems at 1/18.
I love good odds but I don't like chucking away money.
I'm not sure what you mean by 'current reactions' but I see some really negative material appearing overnight. The Boris Johnson honeymoon lasted around 2 days. It's rapidly going south. I expect the tories to lose the seat badly.
You must be looking elsewhere. Apart from some boos in Scotland he hasn't put a foot wrong.
Did you not listen to his rambling nonsensical interview with Sarah Smith in Scotland yesterday?
Nope and nor did 99% of the population hear anymore than a snippit.
When the spotlight falls on him, as it inevitably will, perhaps a few more people will conclude that he is winging it and not very convincingly.
NEWSFLASH: People who don't like Johnson and would never vote for him still don't like him.
Maybe Boris fronting up a 'walk away no deal ' commitment has served to confirm the absolute polarisation between leave and remain
I supported TM deal all along as it was a compromise and we would have left now with a good relationship with the EU for our ongoing trade talks.
I strongly criticize all those mps from each opposing view from not coming together in the interest of the Country
From this point on I think public opinion is going to be very important to both Boris, but also his opponents. If we see Boris and the conservatives receiving public support we can all cry 'they do not know what they are doing' but a no deal disaster will become inevitable
I listened to a report on the early business news from Ireland and in particular their agriculture industry and they are facing utter devastation if we no deal. Indeed across the EU people and communities will be economically wrecked as their markets are lost through tariffs etc
And all this due to idiotic politicians sacrificing jobs and communities both here and in Europe over opposing ideology
It makes you want to weep. And yes if we end with a no deal I resign from the conservative party
This is all the UK's doing - the EU did not tell us to have a referendum. It's an entirely self-inflicted wound, utterly predictable in its outcome to anyone with a basic grasp of politics, economics and human nature.
It is absolutely not all the UK's doing. Unless you're saying the EU is some sort of prison that we shouldn't leave, the UK was perfectly entitled to have a referendum and is perfectly entitled to leave and we are free to do what we want without it being held against us.
Cameron gave the EU a chance at reform prior to the referendum and they chose not to reform. Why should we remain tethered to Europe just because they want to have their cake and eat it too - they want to ignore us, not reform but maintain an open border with at least one part of our country? Doesn't work that way.
It takes two to tango.
They have given us a series of choices, each with some good bits and some bad bits. That the leave vote is split with incompatible demands, plus all the political parties seeking to maximise their interest ahead of the national interest is hardly their fault. The backstop that you despise is a UK creation not an EU one. The problems are our parliament has been unable to choose and there is no consensus on why we are leaving, not the EU being inflexible.
He must want to remain in the EU, splitting the Brexit vote is great news for the Lib Dems in the south of England in particular.
I admit, I thought Nigel would be happy to pass on the baton to Boris, wind up TPB and quietly retire. Clearly not. I wonder if the appointment of Cummings was wise after all. He and Nigel loathe each other, and Nigel looks to be re-energized into destroying the Tories. This is just like the arcane splits within the British far left during the 1960s and 70s and, as with those, probably none of the factions will prevail.
What with SNP racing ahead in Scotland, Plaid topping the Assembly Polls, and new momentum behind Irish unification —- has anyone checked how Mebyon Kernow is polling?
He must want to remain in the EU, splitting the Brexit vote is great news for the Lib Dems in the south of England in particular.
Splitting is a matter of perspective. They're the *Brexit* party, if the Tories really support Brexit why are they running against them and splitting the vote?
Cons at 8-1 to win Brecon, seems a reasonable chance bet to me given current reactions. No point going for Lib Dems at 1/18.
I love good odds but I don't like chucking away money.
I'm not sure what you mean by 'current reactions' but I see some really negative material appearing overnight. The Boris Johnson honeymoon lasted around 2 days. It's rapidly going south. I expect the tories to lose the seat badly.
You must be looking elsewhere. Apart from some boos in Scotland he hasn't put a foot wrong.
Did you not listen to his rambling nonsensical interview with Sarah Smith in Scotland yesterday?
Nope and nor did 99% of the population hear anymore than a snippit.
When the spotlight falls on him, as it inevitably will, perhaps a few more people will conclude that he is winging it and not very convincingly.
NEWSFLASH: People who don't like Johnson and would never vote for him still don't like him.
NEWSFLASH People who think we should give him a chance are watching closely between their fingers.
Cons at 8-1 to win Brecon, seems a reasonable chance bet to me given current reactions. No point going for Lib Dems at 1/18.
I love good odds but I don't like chucking away money.
I'm not sure what you mean by 'current reactions' but I see some really negative material appearing overnight. The Boris Johnson honeymoon lasted around 2 days. It's rapidly going south. I expect the tories to lose the seat badly.
You must be looking elsewhere. Apart from some boos in Scotland he hasn't put a foot wrong.
Erm, well the start of his problems are all over the news this morning (apart from the hideous cock-up by the Met police over Carl Beech.)
He said he was “unable to conclude that every officer acted with due diligence and in good faith” and claimed officers leading the inquiry were “fully aware” of six matters that undermined Beech’s credibility but that they were not disclosed to the district judge who granted the warrants.
“I concluded in 2016 – and I remain of the view – that the officers responsible for the three applications did not in fact fully believe that there were reasonable grounds to believe Beech’s allegations,” he added.
The retired high court judge also expressed surprise that his review’s findings had not led to more serious consequences. “Knowingly misleading a district judge is far more serious than mere misconduct. The IOPC should in my judgment have investigated whether a criminal act had been committed, and if so by whom,” he wrote.
He also said there was “no explanation” from the IOPC “as to why the two most senior officers were exonerated without interview”.
A Scotland Yard spokesman said: “None of the five officers involved in the original referral or the three officers subject to investigation [by the IOPC] were found to have cases to answer in relation to any of the allegations...
Any Brexiteers on here claiming this is irrelevant / doesn't matter / won't affect people are just illustrating how far up their own colons they have their heads.
This really, really, matters to a LOT of British people, especially at this time of year.
Treat this lightly at your peril.
Absolutely the pound being more competitive is very relevant and matters hugely to all exporters making us more competitive on the global stage.
It might hurt those who are exporting to us, like the Irish, be a shame if that is compounded by their exports being less competitive and facing no deal now wouldn't it?
Cons at 8-1 to win Brecon, seems a reasonable chance bet to me given current reactions. No point going for Lib Dems at 1/18.
I love good odds but I don't like chucking away money.
I'm not sure what you mean by 'current reactions' but I see some really negative material appearing overnight. The Boris Johnson honeymoon lasted around 2 days. It's rapidly going south. I expect the tories to lose the seat badly.
You must be looking elsewhere. Apart from some boos in Scotland he hasn't put a foot wrong.
Did you not listen to his rambling nonsensical interview with Sarah Smith in Scotland yesterday?
Nope and nor did 99% of the population hear anymore than a snippit.
When the spotlight falls on him, as it inevitably will, perhaps a few more people will conclude that he is winging it and not very convincingly.
NEWSFLASH: People who don't like Johnson and would never vote for him still don't like him.
The number will increase exponentially with every shambolic unprepared interview that is broadcast.
It is absolutely not all the UK's doing. Unless you're saying the EU is some sort of prison that we shouldn't leave, the UK was perfectly entitled to have a referendum and is perfectly entitled to leave and we are free to do what we want without it being held against us.
Cameron gave the EU a chance at reform prior to the referendum and they chose not to reform. Why should we remain tethered to Europe just because they want to have their cake and eat it too - they want to ignore us, not reform but maintain an open border with at least one part of our country? Doesn't work that way.
It takes two to tango.
They have given us a series of choices, each with some good bits and some bad bits. That the leave vote is split with incompatible demands, plus all the political parties seeking to maximise their interest ahead of the national interest is hardly their fault. The backstop that you despise is a UK creation not an EU one. The problems are our parliament has been unable to choose and there is no consensus on why we are leaving, not the EU being inflexible.
The leave vote is not that split, what was split was having Remainers try to implement it while ignoring large parts of why we voted to leave.
If the leave vote is so split, perhaps you can name some prominent Vote Leave campaigners who are objecting to Boris Johnson's method of trying to leave. It seems all the objections are coming from Remainers, and even some Remainers are respecting it.
If the backstop is our creation they'll have no objection to junking it will they?
Any Brexiteers on here claiming this is irrelevant / doesn't matter / won't affect people are just illustrating how far up their own colons they have their heads.
This really, really, matters to a LOT of British people, especially at this time of year.
Treat this lightly at your peril.
Absolutely the pound being more competitive is very relevant and matters hugely to all exporters making us more competitive on the global stage.
It might hurt those who are exporting to us, like the Irish, be a shame if that is compounded by their exports being less competitive and facing no deal now wouldn't it?
High value exports - the kind that drive higher productivity and GDP per person increases - are not very price sensitive. The pound drops, ceteris paribus, we just get poorer.
Any Brexiteers on here claiming this is irrelevant / doesn't matter / won't affect people are just illustrating how far up their own colons they have their heads.
This really, really, matters to a LOT of British people, especially at this time of year.
Treat this lightly at your peril.
Absolutely the pound being more competitive is very relevant and matters hugely to all exporters making us more competitive on the global stage.
It might hurt those who are exporting to us, like the Irish, be a shame if that is compounded by their exports being less competitive and facing no deal now wouldn't it?
Meanwhile imports become more expensive as does petrol.
This has now become like the Falklands War. Days before the Armada arrives, a reasonable solution might be found. But Bonkers Boris is on a war footing. Their eyes are alight. They will try to crash us out. They will try to sink any Belgranos in the water. Dominic Cummings will adore bringing the whole edifice crashing down. It's what he lives for: the smoke in the rubble is the air he breathes.
If Britain wins, then the tories will land the biggest majority since Thatcher.
But this isn't 1982. The EU is not an 'enemy,' despite what Bonkers Boris believes and they're not a bunch of amateurish Argentinians who would rather be back home.
I thought tired war-time cliches were meant to be the preserve of Leavers?
Brexit is not the Falklands. It is Iraq, Suez, the fall of Singapore and the Charge of the Light Brigade. It is the Jonestown Massacre, the Tanganikya Groundnut Scheme, and Gallipoli.
It's the Rape of Nanking, the Burning of Warsaw, and the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings.
What with SNP racing ahead in Scotland, Plaid topping the Assembly Polls, and new momentum behind Irish unification —- has anyone checked how Mebyon Kernow is polling?
I believe Byronic has Mebyon Kernow connections. Or maybe I'm mixing him up with someone else.
Cons at 8-1 to win Brecon, seems a reasonable chance bet to me given current reactions. No point going for Lib Dems at 1/18.
I love good odds but I don't like chucking away money.
I'm not sure what you mean by 'current reactions' but I see some really negative material appearing overnight. The Boris Johnson honeymoon lasted around 2 days. It's rapidly going south. I expect the tories to lose the seat badly.
You must be looking elsewhere. Apart from some boos in Scotland he hasn't put a foot wrong.
Did you not listen to his rambling nonsensical interview with Sarah Smith in Scotland yesterday?
Nope and nor did 99% of the population hear anymore than a snippit.
When the spotlight falls on him, as it inevitably will, perhaps a few more people will conclude that he is winging it and not very convincingly.
NEWSFLASH: People who don't like Johnson and would never vote for him still don't like him.
The number will increase exponentially with every shambolic unprepared interview that is broadcast.
You're obviously new to politics and new to Boris. Welcome.
This has now become like the Falklands War. Days before the Armada arrives, a reasonable solution might be found. But Bonkers Boris is on a war footing. Their eyes are alight. They will try to crash us out. They will try to sink any Belgranos in the water. Dominic Cummings will adore bringing the whole edifice crashing down. It's what he lives for: the smoke in the rubble is the air he breathes.
If Britain wins, then the tories will land the biggest majority since Thatcher.
But this isn't 1982. The EU is not an 'enemy,' despite what Bonkers Boris believes and they're not a bunch of amateurish Argentinians who would rather be back home.
I thought tired war-time cliches were meant to be the preserve of Leavers?
Brexit is not the Falklands. It is Iraq, Suez, the fall of Singapore and the Charge of the Light Brigade. It is the Jonestown Massacre, the Tanganikya Groundnut Scheme, and Gallipoli.
It's the Rape of Nanking, the Burning of Warsaw, and the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings.
OTT.
On the other hand, it certainly ain’t Agincourt, Blenheim, or the defeat of the Spanish Armada.
We are only arguing over the magnitude of failure.
Sterling is at a higher level now than, for example, it was at the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017. And the high for 2019 is about... ooohhh... 1.31, so it's not like it's completely collapsed.
The big question that the UK economy has to answer, however, is this:
Does a c. 10% devaluation of Sterling boost exports meaningfully or not?
If it does, that's great, and part of resetting the British economy on a more sustainable path. If it does not, and sees British consumers borrow more to keep up consumption levels despite falling real incomes, then we should all be concerned.
Right now, the evidence from the PMIs is that export demand is not being stimulated. (Or rather, the global economic backdrop, with slowdowns in the US and Europe is such that any improved competitiveness is being offset by lower overall demand.) Consumer borrowing and the current account are also heading in the wrong direction.
Forget Brexit for a second: those numbers are simply horrible for the UK economy. The more unbalanced the UK economy is, the more painful bringing the current account and savings rates into balance becomes.
Maybe Boris fronting up a 'walk away no deal ' commitment has served to confirm the absolute polarisation between leave and remain
I supported TM deal all along as it was a compromise and we would have left now with a good relationship with the EU for our ongoing trade talks.
I strongly criticize all those mps from each opposing view from not coming together in the interest of the Country
From this point on I think public opinion is going to be very important to both Boris, but also his opponents. If we see Boris and the conservatives receiving public support we can all cry 'they do not know what they are doing' but a no deal disaster will become inevitable
I listened to a report on the early business news from Ireland and in particular their agriculture industry and they are facing utter devastation if we no deal. Indeed across the EU people and communities will be economically wrecked as their markets are lost through tariffs etc
And all this due to idiotic politicians sacrificing jobs and communities both here and in Europe over opposing ideology
It makes you want to weep. And yes if we end with a no deal I resign from the conservative party
This is all the UK's doing - the EU did not tell us to have a referendum. It's an entirely self-inflicted wound, utterly predictable in its outcome to anyone with a basic grasp of politics, economics and human nature.
And to many Europeans whose lives and communities are going to be laid to waste by the stupidity of politicians here and in the EU
Cons at 8-1 to win Brecon, seems a reasonable chance bet to me given current reactions. No point going for Lib Dems at 1/18.
I love good odds but I don't like chucking away money.
I'm not sure what you mean by 'current reactions' but I see some really negative material appearing overnight. The Boris Johnson honeymoon lasted around 2 days. It's rapidly going south. I expect the tories to lose the seat badly.
You must be looking elsewhere. Apart from some boos in Scotland he hasn't put a foot wrong.
Did you not listen to his rambling nonsensical interview with Sarah Smith in Scotland yesterday?
Nope and nor did 99% of the population hear anymore than a snippit.
When the spotlight falls on him, as it inevitably will, perhaps a few more people will conclude that he is winging it and not very convincingly.
NEWSFLASH: People who don't like Johnson and would never vote for him still don't like him.
The number will increase exponentially with every shambolic unprepared interview that is broadcast.
You're obviously new to politics and new to Boris. Welcome.
People who loathe Boris Johnson will be convinced that he's evil. The rest won't.
PRIME Minister Boris Johnson left via the back door after a meeting with First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at Bute House.
It came after Johnson was fiercely booed by crowds when he arrived earlier in the day.
Thank you Malcolm 'Press Association' G!
Just to make sure you southerners know what happened, the big jessie was booed in the front door and bundled out the back door by his breeks arse. What a loser.
By a bunch of ranting Nats (albeit a few Boris fans).
As PM Boris has neither the time nor the security risk to waste time confronting ranting Nats
Sadly, slinking our the back door is standard Boris.
As PM - especially now - you must expect brick bats.
Second day running that Johnson is being criticised on here for something that probably wasn't his call to make.
He is, you know, the actual Prime Minister. Who’s telling him what door to use - the Bilderberg Group? The Illuminati?
You don't understand. It's Always Somebody Else's Fault.
In fact, let's reify it. IASEF. Yes, that'll do. When somebody indulges in "failing and blaming", I'll type IASEF to ram the point home. Oh, such larks.
Maybe Boris fronting up a 'walk away no deal ' commitment has served to confirm the absolute polarisation between leave and remain
I supported TM deal all along as it was a compromise and we would have left now with a good relationship with the EU for our ongoing trade talks.
I strongly criticize all those mps from each opposing view from not coming together in the interest of the Country
From this point on I think public opinion is going to be very important to both Boris, but also his opponents. If we see Boris and the conservatives receiving public support we can all cry 'they do not know what they are doing' but a no deal disaster will become inevitable
I listened to a report on the early business news from Ireland and in particular their agriculture industry and they are facing utter devastation if we no deal. Indeed across the EU people and communities will be economically wrecked as their markets are lost through tariffs etc
And all this due to idiotic politicians sacrificing jobs and communities both here and in Europe over opposing ideology
It makes you want to weep. And yes if we end with a no deal I resign from the conservative party
This is all the UK's doing - the EU did not tell us to have a referendum. It's an entirely self-inflicted wound, utterly predictable in its outcome to anyone with a basic grasp of politics, economics and human nature.
And to many Europeans whose lives and communities are going to be laid to waste by the stupidity of politicians here and in the EU
No one comes out of this well
By country the impact is minor compared to that in the UK though. Some might say they hold all the cards.
He must want to remain in the EU, splitting the Brexit vote is great news for the Lib Dems in the south of England in particular.
I admit, I thought Nigel would be happy to pass on the baton to Boris, wind up TPB and quietly retire. Clearly not. I wonder if the appointment of Cummings was wise after all. He and Nigel loathe each other, and Nigel looks to be re-energized into destroying the Tories. This is just like the arcane splits within the British far left during the 1960s and 70s and, as with those, probably none of the factions will prevail.
Where would the influence be then? Nige needs the Tories to lose B+R to keep them fearful, and with their feet to the fire.
Comments
The main problem we face this time is that the trade balance is significantly worse than 1985 so we are more dependent on foreign investment than before. Foreign investors are sitting on their hands and exporters will not take advantage of the exchange rate until they understand the future trade deals. Thus our only route is to cut imports. This will happen through the exchange rate.
https://twitter.com/Garrymi/status/1155915243182350336
So it seems quite clear, to me at least, that a significant majority of voters will be rather unhappy with the consequences of No Deal.
There are some interesting political parallels. It's not a perfect one, of course, but for those of us who can remember the before, during and after of that saga there are some worthwhile comparisons.
If Johnson pulls this off he will win a landslide.
It is Iraq, Suez, the fall of Singapore and the Charge of the Light Brigade.
It is the Jonestown Massacre, the Tanganikya Groundnut Scheme, and Gallipoli.
https://tinyurl.com/y5wd446p
#RuthnotforFM it would appear.
'My sense is that all the happy optimistic talk about Ms Davidson becoming first minister in 2021 has had an unfortunate altercation with political reality. There is a glumness in Tory circles these days which accepts that preventing the SNP and Greens from winning a pro-independence majority at Holyrood is about as good as it can get for the Tories. By then Ms Davidson would have been in post for a decade; time perhaps to conclude she’d run her race as far as it could be taken.'
Unfortunately where we're all at, more or less.
'Some of the despair apparent in Scottish Tory circles is masked by what you might deem the frenzied hope of the riverboat gambler down to his last dollar who thinks there’s still a chance that the roulette wheel might save him. They have, in the words of one Tory MSP, spent much of the past three years wading through “a tunnel of shit” and, this being so, almost anything must be preferable to that. “I feel quite elated” says another Tory parliamentarian, consoling himself with the thought that Mr Johnson “is going to piss off a lot of people I don’t like”.
This is where British politics is these days: satisfaction comes from other people’s unhappiness and their defeat is more important than your victory.'
Having voted to leave and then thrice against a deal, MPs aghast at no deal might consider changing their tactics.
And not this pathetic dithering stuff. The same three options remain (ahem). Pick one, or throw the choice back to the electorate.
Yes, well that's absolutely true, of course.
I won't for now labour the point though perhaps I could offer up a thread piece to Mike on it. But there are some intriguing parallels nonetheless. A governing party deeply unpopular and apparently out of touch, defence cuts, a useless and wildly left-wing leader of the Labour Party, and then a spark 8000 miles away. What came next? Brokering a deal, a wary Parliament, the increasing jingoism of the Red Tops, the armada sailing south, the fight for Port Stanley, the massive outpouring of nationalism, the triumphant election of Mrs Thatcher the following year in a landslide. The crushing of Corbyn. I mean Foot. Blah blah.
But you're right, and it also falls down on a number of levels. I do not believe that Boris will succeed with this. The battle is about more than a lump of wind-ravaged rock that only sheep want to live on. It's about the entire infrastructure of the United Kingdom both politically and economically. It's also about the same for all member states of the EU. The ramifications of this going south (and I'm not referring to the Armada) are colossal.
If Boris, Cummings, Raab and co persist on this path, and I have no doubt they will until they are forcibly halted, I genuinely think it will collapse this country.
It's worse for my son, some of whose commission is paid in £, but he has to pay school fees etc in baht!
*72.9million in 2017
https://www.finder.com/uk/outbound-tourism-statistics
It's a big part of our life as a nation and I, too, have spent the last 24 hours wondering if I need to pull the plug on my plans.
And, yes, framing it like this will deliver a big win if the nation buys into it.
My sense, however, is that there is a narrow but decisive cognescenti over ignorami majority in the country, and therefore the chances of the Johnson strategy paying off are not high.
But that could be hope over reason. It certainly might work. We could with stuck with this shallow, sordid character as PM for quite some time.
I'm not sure what you mean by 'current reactions' but I see some really negative material appearing overnight. The Boris Johnson honeymoon lasted around 2 days. It's rapidly going south. I expect the tories to lose the seat badly.
The Lib Dems are Hamilton with a 15 second lead and half a lap to go right now.
I supported TM deal all along as it was a compromise and we would have left now with a good relationship with the EU for our ongoing trade talks.
I strongly criticize all those mps from each opposing view from not coming together in the interest of the Country
From this point on I think public opinion is going to be very important to both Boris, but also his opponents. If we see Boris and the conservatives receiving public support we can all cry 'they do not know what they are doing' but a no deal disaster will become inevitable
I listened to a report on the early business news from Ireland and in particular their agriculture industry and they are facing utter devastation if we no deal. Indeed across the EU people and communities will be economically wrecked as their markets are lost through tariffs etc
And all this due to idiotic politicians sacrificing jobs and communities both here and in Europe over opposing ideology
It makes you want to weep. And yes if we end with a no deal I resign from the conservative party
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-49159450
And all linked to the rhetoric about No Deal.
Watch and note how the Boris bouncing balloon is already burst.
But back to sterling, headlines about it slumping because of the Govt's no deal rhetoric are really bad for them. Those are newspaper headlines and the lead on Sky News. So there!
https://twitter.com/PeterMannionMP/status/1156137549104128000
But Hamilton has lost one wet race in the last five years, so other than that being a reminder that nothing in life is certain, the point stands.
Cameron gave the EU a chance at reform prior to the referendum and they chose not to reform. Why should we remain tethered to Europe just because they want to have their cake and eat it too - they want to ignore us, not reform but maintain an open border with at least one part of our country? Doesn't work that way.
It takes two to tango.
"Boris Johnson heads to Wales as pound hits fresh lows."
https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-heads-for-wales-and-bitter-clash-with-first-minister-11773065
Mind you, didn’t she say there was a fortune to be made in literally bottling air?
Or was that Andrea Leadsom?
I know @kle4 disagrees, but it’s embarassing to see these no-marks out and about.
This really, really, matters to a LOT of British people, especially at this time of year.
Treat this lightly at your peril.
The EU should not have relaxed the rules on Euro membership.
The Greeks should not have issued around one third more debt between 2000 and 2008 than they said they did.
If the first of these did not happen, there would have been no Greek crisis. If the second did not, then the same is likely true. The Greek boom - which saw household incomes soar to the same level of Germans in just six or seven years - was a direct consequence of the government spending dramatically ahead of revenues.
Thanks for highlighting the good news!
The honeymoon will of course end, probably at the by-election as has been stated but he's had a brilliant week so far.
Could be nonsense of course - most of these little sayings are - but this one does have the ring of truth.
100 lawyers in room A, 100 chartered surveyors in room B. Which room has more truly noble spirits in it? Which has more venal crooks?
Room A, I would wager.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jul/30/police-may-have-broken-law-during-carl-beech-investigation-ex-judge
The applications, he said, stated that Beech had remained consistent in his allegations. “Beech had not been consistent,” he wrote.
He said he was “unable to conclude that every officer acted with due diligence and in good faith” and claimed officers leading the inquiry were “fully aware” of six matters that undermined Beech’s credibility but that they were not disclosed to the district judge who granted the warrants.
“I concluded in 2016 – and I remain of the view – that the officers responsible for the three applications did not in fact fully believe that there were reasonable grounds to believe Beech’s allegations,” he added.
The retired high court judge also expressed surprise that his review’s findings had not led to more serious consequences. “Knowingly misleading a district judge is far more serious than mere misconduct. The IOPC should in my judgment have investigated whether a criminal act had been committed, and if so by whom,” he wrote.
He also said there was “no explanation” from the IOPC “as to why the two most senior officers were exonerated without interview”.
A Scotland Yard spokesman said: “None of the five officers involved in the original referral or the three officers subject to investigation [by the IOPC] were found to have cases to answer in relation to any of the allegations...
It might hurt those who are exporting to us, like the Irish, be a shame if that is compounded by their exports being less competitive and facing no deal now wouldn't it?
If the leave vote is so split, perhaps you can name some prominent Vote Leave campaigners who are objecting to Boris Johnson's method of trying to leave. It seems all the objections are coming from Remainers, and even some Remainers are respecting it.
If the backstop is our creation they'll have no objection to junking it will they?
See the Swiss economy for more details.
F☆☆k Exporters
I really, really, really hope you get paid to post this shite
Or maybe I'm mixing him up with someone else.
On the other hand, it certainly ain’t Agincourt, Blenheim, or the defeat of the Spanish Armada.
We are only arguing over the magnitude of failure.
Sterling is at a higher level now than, for example, it was at the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017. And the high for 2019 is about... ooohhh... 1.31, so it's not like it's completely collapsed.
The big question that the UK economy has to answer, however, is this:
Does a c. 10% devaluation of Sterling boost exports meaningfully or not?
If it does, that's great, and part of resetting the British economy on a more sustainable path. If it does not, and sees British consumers borrow more to keep up consumption levels despite falling real incomes, then we should all be concerned.
Right now, the evidence from the PMIs is that export demand is not being stimulated. (Or rather, the global economic backdrop, with slowdowns in the US and Europe is such that any improved competitiveness is being offset by lower overall demand.) Consumer borrowing and the current account are also heading in the wrong direction.
Forget Brexit for a second: those numbers are simply horrible for the UK economy. The more unbalanced the UK economy is, the more painful bringing the current account and savings rates into balance becomes.
No one comes out of this well
Now Boris is a no dealer I can no longer countenance that even if the alternative is Remain.
In fact, let's reify it. IASEF. Yes, that'll do. When somebody indulges in "failing and blaming", I'll type IASEF to ram the point home. Oh, such larks.