And Flavible is even worse, as it assumes BXP seat wins are limited, and that Lib Dems do better.
Why would the LibDems and SNP support such a disastrously performing Labour party UNLESS it junked Corbyn?
Whether the "only if you get yourselves a leader we can trust" debate happens before or after the election: there's not the remotest possibility Sturgeon and Swinson would provide any comfort to Corbyn.
And the more anti-Swinson bile Corbyn's minions pour out now, the likelier she's going to be to stick to her position
Two policies.
1. A referendum on Brexit 2. A referendum on (proper) PR
3. A Green policy.
That isnt based on doomsday cult hysteria. I think we already have one.
I predicted upthread no “Swinson bounce” but perhaps I was wrong.
Although, this seems less pro Swinson and more anti Johnson.
How do you work that out? No drop in Tory support under Boris (no increase either) and a 3% increase for LibDems under Swinson.
It is rare for the LDs to get publicity. Leading the news with a fresh, energetic leader gives you a bounce. Wall-to-wall coverage of Boris, much of it slavishly positive in the Press, seems to have had no impact. Maybe the problem wasn't TM after all.
So are we expecting that Hunt and Boris haven't reached an agreement? Hunt, Hammond, Gauke, Stewart - a list of big names on the back benches quite happy to hex Boris. Especially if we see some of the ERG leading loons getting plush jobs.
I think that is why Laura K was so bouncy on the BBC - she knows its going to make her job a lot of fun
The only way to unite the Tory and Brexit Party vote is in opposition. Perhaps the best long term strategy if that’s the coalition you want to create is to call an election and lose it.
The only way to largely unite it is for the Tories to deliver Brexit in Government or commit to deliver it and go into opposition if diehard Remainer MPs refuse to agree
You won’t get a thank you note from Brexit supporters for delivering Brexit.
Not it seems as much as they would have. I think six months ago any kind of brexit would have passed muster. Now not so. Farage is a player and he's offering purity.
If Boris is VoNC'ed and no alternative government put together within a fortnight, " .. the last day for tabling of a vote of no confidence to guarantee a change of Government through an election is today, not September 3rd, and the Leader of the Opposition’s dithering has virtually guaranteed that this cannot be used"
Yep, any attempt by rebel Tories or Labour to force a GE or VoNC has to happen immediately. Any attempt to prove that Boris didn’t have a majority at all is probably too late already, that should have been done yesterday.
It’s now a game of chicken with the EU up to October 31st - either they change the WA or it’s no deal.
The article does not consider the possibility that having passed a VNOC in September that the Commons might instal an alternative PM - probably Corbyn - in the 14 day period which followed.
Seems Jezza may have done it again. Found a way of dithering sufficiently to allow Seamus's desperately wanted Tory No Deal.
Although to be fair if he called for VoNC today or tomorrow he would almost certainly lose because the rebel tories are not ready to kill their new government until September.
The article also does not note that the 5 weeks campaign for GE could be shortened.
The FTPA stipulates 25 working days between Dissolution and Polling Day.
The only way to largely unite it is for the Tories to deliver Brexit in Government or commit to deliver it and go into opposition if diehard Remainer MPs refuse to agree
You now think the Cons would LOSE a crisis Brexit election?
I thought Johnson was bringing a sunny sense of optimism and 'can do' ??
With Raab hinted at as foreign sec, it could be that the European source in the tweet below is right that the point of Cummings is probably purely election campaigning and discipline, not any form of negotiation.
I'd not put it the same way and would back remain now, but it is pretty shameless to pretend it is about democracy and final says and then essentially admit that is marketing only. If the issue is they wont ever stop trying to prevent brexit fine, but if that means ignoring public votes that go the wrong way just say so from the start, dont pretend a final say is final if it gives the wrong answer
Con 220 Lab 240 LD 61 BXP 55 Grn 1 PC 3 SNP 52 NI 18
LDs gain 7 from Lab and 42 from Con BXP gain 18 from Lab and 37 from Con
Con are being eaten from both ends by LD and BXP, and have fewer seats than Lab in spite of having a slightly higher share.
Out of date.
Even Yougov today has the Tories winning back Brexit Party voters.
It us Labour now being eaten alive by the LDs and Brexit Party with Yougov today and heading for their worst number of seats since 1935 and lowest voteshare since 1910
And Flavible is even worse, as it assumes BXP seat wins are limited, and that Lib Dems do better.
Why would the LibDems and SNP support such a disastrously performing Labour party UNLESS it junked Corbyn?
Whether the "only if you get yourselves a leader we can trust" debate happens before or after the election: there's not the remotest possibility Sturgeon and Swinson would provide any comfort to Corbyn.
And the more anti-Swinson bile Corbyn's minions pour out now, the likelier she's going to be to stick to her position
Two policies.
1. A referendum on Brexit 2. A referendum on (proper) PR
3. A Green policy.
Combine 1 & 2 on the ballot paper and put a line between the two topics, i.e.
EU - Stay in or Leave on terms to be specified _________
STV AM another or continue with FPTP.
I doubt that people like unnecessary visits to the polling station.
I suppose as a refinement the vote for or against PR could itself use STV or AV...
The only way to unite the Tory and Brexit Party vote is in opposition. Perhaps the best long term strategy if that’s the coalition you want to create is to call an election and lose it.
The only way to largely unite it is for the Tories to deliver Brexit in Government or commit to deliver it and go into opposition if diehard Remainer MPs refuse to agree
You won’t get a thank you note from Brexit supporters for delivering Brexit.
Not the diehards but the Tories can win a majority with the Brexit Party down to 10 to 12% ie UKIP 2015 levels.
The Tories cannot win a majority with the Brexit Party on 15 to 20%+ as now
The only way to largely unite it is for the Tories to deliver Brexit in Government or commit to deliver it and go into opposition if diehard Remainer MPs refuse to agree
You now think the Cons would LOSE a crisis Brexit election?
I thought Johnson was bringing a sunny sense of optimism and 'can do' ??
Not if they have delivered Brexit but of course they could lose power without an election if diehard Remainers unite to stop Brexit with a caretaker diehard Remainer PM
The only way to largely unite it is for the Tories to deliver Brexit in Government or commit to deliver it and go into opposition if diehard Remainer MPs refuse to agree
You now think the Cons would LOSE a crisis Brexit election?
I thought Johnson was bringing a sunny sense of optimism and 'can do' ??
Not if they have delivered Brexit but of course they could lose power without an election if diehard Remainers unite to stop Brexit with a caretaker diehard Remainer PM
Surely it depends on if they have delivered the ‘wrong kind’ of Brexit?
Disastrous poll for Labour, would be the worst Labour election result since 1935 in terms of seats and since 1910 in terms of voteshare.
Good poll for the LDs as they overtake Labour for second on votes. Tories still ahead as largest party but Boris still needs to squeeze the Brexit Party vote by delivering Brexit
I always enjoy your posts HYUFD, but you wouldn't have enjoyed the chat I had with a local florist this morning. She's switched from the Brexit Party to the Lib Dems. Her reason was Boris.
The only way to unite the Tory and Brexit Party vote is in opposition. Perhaps the best long term strategy if that’s the coalition you want to create is to call an election and lose it.
The only way to largely unite it is for the Tories to deliver Brexit in Government or commit to deliver it and go into opposition if diehard Remainer MPs refuse to agree
You won’t get a thank you note from Brexit supporters for delivering Brexit.
Not the diehards but the Tories can win a majority with the Brexit Party down to 10 to 12% ie UKIP 2015 levels.
The Tories cannot win a majority with the Brexit Party on 15 to 20%+ as now
Why, given that you are a diehard Remainer do you insist on such language?
Disastrous poll for Labour, would be the worst Labour election result since 1935 in terms of seats and since 1910 in terms of voteshare.
Good poll for the LDs as they overtake Labour for second on votes. Tories still ahead as largest party but Boris still needs to squeeze the Brexit Party vote by delivering Brexit
I always enjoy your posts HYUFD, but you wouldn't have enjoyed the chat I had with a local florist this morning. She's switched from the Brexit Party to the Lib Dems. Her reason was Boris.
Well good for her but I would suggest she will be about the only Brexit Party to LD switcher in the country, certainly at national level
The only way to largely unite it is for the Tories to deliver Brexit in Government or commit to deliver it and go into opposition if diehard Remainer MPs refuse to agree
You now think the Cons would LOSE a crisis Brexit election?
I thought Johnson was bringing a sunny sense of optimism and 'can do' ??
Not if they have delivered Brexit but of course they could lose power without an election if diehard Remainers unite to stop Brexit with a caretaker diehard Remainer PM
Surely it depends on if they have delivered the ‘wrong kind’ of Brexit?
The Brexit Party will still get 5 to 10% regardless ie around UKIP 2015 levels but the Tories can still win a majority despite that
Con 220 Lab 240 LD 61 BXP 55 Grn 1 PC 3 SNP 52 NI 18
LDs gain 7 from Lab and 42 from Con BXP gain 18 from Lab and 37 from Con
Con are being eaten from both ends by LD and BXP, and have fewer seats than Lab in spite of having a slightly higher share.
Out of date.
Even Yougov today has the Tories winning back Brexit Party voters.
It is Labour now being eaten alive by the LDs and Brexit Party with Yougov today and heading for their worst number of seats since 1935 and lowest voteshare since 1910
It is just one poll. There will be others. The polls bounce around but there is an underlying trend that the EMA picks out. I agree that the trend is that the Tories are winning back some BXP voters but not enough.
May was a failure. Much of this was her own fault.
However a large part of her failure was Boris’s ongoing attempts to undermine her and replace her, with the connivance of the ERG, Lynton Crosby, and various elements in the press notably the Telegraph.
Trying to think of the last PM who came to power in such circumstances. Gordon possibily, but even Gordon waited until the fag end of Blair rule.
Clapping is out of order in the House of Commons. As usual Bercow doesn't enforce the traditions of the place.
It is generally accepted that the convention of not clapping is not universal eg for major occasions. I find those who regularly flout the convention because they think it makes a rebellious statement lame on the extreme but it has never been followed all the time.
I dont have my Erskine May in front of me but I dont know that you are right that it is explicitly out of order to clap. I think there is a general rule on not making noise and causing disturbance and that generally clapping would indeed be unacceptable on that basid but that it is up to the chairs judgement on whether to intervene.
Clapping is out of order in the House of Commons. As usual Bercow doesn't enforce the traditions of the place.
You do not seem to have any sense of proportion
I disagree with you. Don't you care about traditions in places like the House of Commons?
A standing ovation for a PM's final PMQs is now a tradition in the House of Commons though. A relatively new tradition but it is a tradition now nonetheless.
Clapping is out of order in the House of Commons. As usual Bercow doesn't enforce the traditions of the place.
You do not seem to have any sense of proportion
I disagree with you. Don't you care about traditions in places like the House of Commons?
A standing ovation for a PM's final PMQs is now a tradition in the House of Commons though. A relatively new tradition but it is a tradition now nonetheless.
Disastrous poll for Labour, would be the worst Labour election result since 1935 in terms of seats and since 1910 in terms of voteshare.
Good poll for the LDs as they overtake Labour for second on votes. Tories still ahead as largest party but Boris still needs to squeeze the Brexit Party vote by delivering Brexit
I always enjoy your posts HYUFD, but you wouldn't have enjoyed the chat I had with a local florist this morning. She's switched from the Brexit Party to the Lib Dems. Her reason was Boris.
Well good for her but I would suggest she will be about the only Brexit Party to LD switcher in the country, certainly at national level
One of the people I spoke to this morning said she likes Boris but is really impressed with the LibDems and Jo Swinson.
Con 220 Lab 240 LD 61 BXP 55 Grn 1 PC 3 SNP 52 NI 18
LDs gain 7 from Lab and 42 from Con BXP gain 18 from Lab and 37 from Con
Con are being eaten from both ends by LD and BXP, and have fewer seats than Lab in spite of having a slightly higher share.
Out of date.
Even Yougov today has the Tories winning back Brexit Party voters.
It is Labour now being eaten alive by the LDs and Brexit Party with Yougov today and heading for their worst number of seats since 1935 and lowest voteshare since 1910
It is just one poll. There will be others. The polls bounce around but there is an underlying trend that the EMA picks out. I agree that the trend is that the Tories are winning back some BXP voters but not enough.
And how many transfers to the Lib Dems are being lost at the same time...
Now I know that HYUFD won't care about those voters but chances are they are a permanent lose while Brexiters are probably only temporary returners...
No it wasn't. It probably lost them tens of thousands of votes. It was so inept the conspiracy theorist in me wondered if it was deliberately so. As did much of what the terrible Vote Leave campaign did.
No it wasn't. It probably lost them tens of thousands of votes. It was so inept the conspiracy theorist in me wondered if it was deliberately so. As did much of what the terrible Vote Leave campaign did.
Sorry but as a Remainer I not only think you're wrong on that, the evidence suggests you are. Take Back Control was brilliant on so many levels and helped them to win.
TAKE BACK CONTROL was brilliant. Appeals directly to the middle-aged, red faced, and paunchy who no longer have the pulling power of their youth and are enraged by it.
No it wasn't. It probably lost them tens of thousands of votes. It was so inept the conspiracy theorist in me wondered if it was deliberately so. As did much of what the terrible Vote Leave campaign did.
But I bet you're one of those who didn't appreciate the power of "Pick Up A Penguin!" either.
No it wasn't. It probably lost them tens of thousands of votes. It was so inept the conspiracy theorist in me wondered if it was deliberately so. As did much of what the terrible Vote Leave campaign did.
Sorry but as a Remainer I not only think you're wrong on that, the evidence suggests you are. Take Back Control was brilliant on so many levels and helped them to win.
Clapping is out of order in the House of Commons. As usual Bercow doesn't enforce the traditions of the place.
It is generally accepted that the convention of not clapping is not universal eg for major occasions. I find those who regularly flout the convention because they think it makes a rebellious statement lame on the extreme but it has never been followed all the time.
I dont have my Erskine May in front of me but I dont know that you are right that it is explicitly out of order to clap. I think there is a general rule on not making noise and causing disturbance and that generally clapping would indeed be unacceptable on that basid but that it is up to the chairs judgement on whether to intervene.
So I'd lighten up.
If they were as good at their jobs as following archaic rituals we would not be in such a mess, performing seals should be in the circus
Disastrous poll for Labour, would be the worst Labour election result since 1935 in terms of seats and since 1910 in terms of voteshare.
Good poll for the LDs as they overtake Labour for second on votes. Tories still ahead as largest party but Boris still needs to squeeze the Brexit Party vote by delivering Brexit
I always enjoy your posts HYUFD, but you wouldn't have enjoyed the chat I had with a local florist this morning. She's switched from the Brexit Party to the Lib Dems. Her reason was Boris.
Well good for her but I would suggest she will be about the only Brexit Party to LD switcher in the country, certainly at national level
One of the people I spoke to this morning said she likes Boris but is really impressed with the LibDems and Jo Swinson.
TAKE BACK CONTROL was brilliant. Appeals directly to the middle-aged, red faced, and paunchy who no longer have the pulling power of their youth and are enraged by it.
Disastrous poll for Labour, would be the worst Labour election result since 1935 in terms of seats and since 1910 in terms of voteshare.
Good poll for the LDs as they overtake Labour for second on votes. Tories still ahead as largest party but Boris still needs to squeeze the Brexit Party vote by delivering Brexit
I always enjoy your posts HYUFD, but you wouldn't have enjoyed the chat I had with a local florist this morning. She's switched from the Brexit Party to the Lib Dems. Her reason was Boris.
Well good for her but I would suggest she will be about the only Brexit Party to LD switcher in the country, certainly at national level
One of the people I spoke to this morning said she likes Boris but is really impressed with the LibDems and Jo Swinson.
fools are easily pleased
Fools’ votes count just the same as everyone else’s.
No it wasn't. It probably lost them tens of thousands of votes. It was so inept the conspiracy theorist in me wondered if it was deliberately so. As did much of what the terrible Vote Leave campaign did.
But I bet you're one of those who didn't appreciate the power of "Pick Up A Penguin!" either.
Disastrous poll for Labour, would be the worst Labour election result since 1935 in terms of seats and since 1910 in terms of voteshare.
Good poll for the LDs as they overtake Labour for second on votes. Tories still ahead as largest party but Boris still needs to squeeze the Brexit Party vote by delivering Brexit
I always enjoy your posts HYUFD, but you wouldn't have enjoyed the chat I had with a local florist this morning. She's switched from the Brexit Party to the Lib Dems. Her reason was Boris.
Well good for her but I would suggest she will be about the only Brexit Party to LD switcher in the country, certainly at national level
There are plenty of people whose vote choice is totally illogical. And even more who go with how it all feels rather than what strictly makes sense. I wouldn't be surprised if there are several million people who are both annoyed that the promised Brexit hasn't been delivered and also will punish whoever delivers it for the downsides it brings. I know your bring on Boris, blugeon through Brexit, bathe in glory strategy is a perfectly logical one and the polls seem to give it credence. I just don't think people will go along with it.
A very brave a typically thoughtful post from Richard Nabavi. The thing that most appals me is the sound of members of the Tory party announcing that we have to brexit at all costs or it will be the end of the Conservative party...no mention of what happens to the 99% of us who aren't members of the Conservative party . And just to clarify, I am an ex member and sometime candidate
Comments
Wall-to-wall coverage of Boris, much of it slavishly positive in the Press, seems to have had no impact.
Maybe the problem wasn't TM after all.
This is margin of error really, and we need to see more polls, but I believe
1. Boris is attracting some voters from BXP
2. Boris is repelling some voters toward LDs
I am hypothesising a “Boris effect” rather than a “Swinson bounce”, although perhaps the distinction is academic.
I think that is why Laura K was so bouncy on the BBC - she knows its going to make her job a lot of fun
Con 24.2%
Lab 23.8%
LD 18.8%
BXP 19.6%
Grn 7.0%
Con 220
Lab 240
LD 61
BXP 55
Grn 1
PC 3
SNP 52
NI 18
LDs gain 7 from Lab and 42 from Con
BXP gain 18 from Lab and 37 from Con
Con are being eaten from both ends by LD and BXP, and have fewer seats than Lab in spite of having a slightly higher share.
I thought Johnson was bringing a sunny sense of optimism and 'can do' ??
Even Yougov today has the Tories winning back Brexit Party voters.
It us Labour now being eaten alive by the LDs and Brexit Party with Yougov today and heading for their worst number of seats since 1935 and lowest voteshare since 1910
EU -
Stay in or
Leave on terms to be specified
_________
STV
AM
another
or
continue with FPTP.
I doubt that people like unnecessary visits to the polling station.
I suppose as a refinement the vote for or against PR could itself use STV or AV...
The Tories cannot win a majority with the Brexit Party on 15 to 20%+ as now
When will she bring back the ducking stool and trial by fire?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jul/24/man-jailed-farhad-salah-driverless-car-bomb-plot-uk
https://twitter.com/Aggerscricket/status/1154000404004446208
Much of this was her own fault.
However a large part of her failure was Boris’s ongoing attempts to undermine her and replace her, with the connivance of the ERG, Lynton Crosby, and various elements in the press notably the Telegraph.
Trying to think of the last PM who came to power in such circumstances. Gordon possibily, but even Gordon waited until the fag end of Blair rule.
Are you a LibDem member?
Jo Swinson is great. I've spoken to some people in the last 24 hrs who are not LibDems who say they really like her.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7kIpRKqfCE
I dont have my Erskine May in front of me but I dont know that you are right that it is explicitly out of order to clap. I think there is a general rule on not making noise and causing disturbance and that generally clapping would indeed be unacceptable on that basid but that it is up to the chairs judgement on whether to intervene.
So I'd lighten up.
Now I know that HYUFD won't care about those voters but chances are they are a permanent lose while Brexiters are probably only temporary returners...
She's anti gay marriage amongst a host of other thoroughly nasty, obnoxious, traits.
This is beyond yuck.
Appeals directly to the middle-aged, red faced, and paunchy who no longer have the pulling power of their youth and are enraged by it.
https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1154003729634476032
Me, I judge on results -
Leave won. Penguins flew off the shelf. QED.
Why the fuck doesn’t he just table a VoNC?
If Boris did go for a GE, I don’t even think he would demand an extension of Art. 50 as the price for it.
And just to clarify, I am an ex member and sometime candidate