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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mandate, what mandate?
Boris’s election as Tory party leader and Prime Minister is the 8th occasion since WW2 when a new PM has been chosen in between general elections. On 5 of the previous 7 occasions, it was the Tories changing leader (Churchill to Eden, Eden to Macmillan, Macmillan to Douglas-Home, Thatcher to Major and Cameron to May). Only Macmillan and Major went on to win majorities at the subsequent election. On the 2 occasions when Labour made a similar change (Wilson to Callaghan and Blair to Brown) the successors lost.
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If he calls a referendum he may well win, and if he doesn't he may well survive; The SNP have proved that being on the losing side can be an electoral asset.
The tricky part is that he'll first want to pivot to something that won't kill him if he wins and actually has to implement the result, which means rebranding the WA.
Adler is showing herself to have a much deeper understanding of what's required and the people involved on both sides. Kuinsberg is just giddy.Talking about how enthusiasm might carry us through and quoting Johnson press releases
Since parliament wont implement the current elecoral mandate on Brexit there is no moral pressure on BJ to obtain one simply a grubby realpolitik of do what suits you, This parliament has no claim to a higher calling in serving the electorate they simply serve themselves and their mates.
Is Jeremy Corbyn still crowdsourcing questions?
We will get a completely different deal done with the EU and leave by Oct 31. It will be based on maintaining current arrangements during negotiations for an FTA. So during the next stage/transition/negotiations there are no changes to our trade or freedom of movement, we pay into the EU budget but lose representation. We maintain a right to exit the deal at a time our choosing if we dont agree a FTA. We will formally have left the EU, but in practice businesses and voters won't notice any difference during the transition.
Labour will oppose as a blind Tory brexit, but less than 15 tory MPs vote against and enough Labour leavers abstain to wave it through.
Not my preferred choice, but nonetheless wish him well and hope he can assemble a good team around him.
Will someone tell him?
And the reason the Conservative Party dragged out the leadership contest is to give Boris eight weeks over the recess to shore up support.
Be glad when we reach the weekend and this damned heatwave is over.
In view of that where is Penny heading
" .. the last day for tabling of a vote of no confidence to guarantee a change of Government through an election is today, not September 3rd, and the Leader of the Opposition’s dithering has virtually guaranteed that this cannot be used"
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/07/chris-white-what-will-the-new-prime-ministers-parliamentary-options-be-on-brexit.html
Staying for a few days with in-laws.... wife's brother who met at Young Conservatives over 50 years ago and ben generally speaking loyal to their party ever since.
Both were remainers, but while he is still of th same mind she holds that 'we mde the decision to leave and should'. Neither is particularly enamoured of Boris J, but both have a high opinion of Nigel Farage.
It's going to be a difficult few days; got to avoid politics.
It’s now a game of chicken with the EU up to October 31st - either they change the WA or it’s no deal.
At least I loathe Boris and wouldn't trust him with a bargepole.
She would be crucified in a GE campaign. The tories could put up Lord Snooty against her and beat them. It would be sheer electoral suicide.
Mandleson?
The first television election. One called by a Tory PM expecting to cash in Big from a civil war in the opposition party, who instead to everyone’s surprise only cashed in small.
That is not to say he won’t try it, mind.
I'll happily trade you the atmosphere of your aircon for the lower temp, and no aircon conditions here.
The way to bring Boris down is properly, with a batch of rebels from his own side.
Even people in despair that so many think he is the right appointment are now curious to see what does next...
"Why the fuss about mandates ?"
Indeed. We have an opposition party who call themselves Liberal "Democrats" who immediately refused to accept a referendum result, and would refuse to accept the result of another one unless it resulted in the answer they wanted.
This is a guy who has been skipping his homework since a child, handed in his student and journalistic work at the last minute (or usually late), and tried to wing every job he has ever done.
Hunt polled a third of the membership which was better than expected. Offering Hunt a demotion could hardly be seen as bringing the party together and the optic of moving the Foreign Secretary during the present crisis in the Middle East isn't a clever one.
Does Hunt have the bottle to turn down a demotion even if it comes with the sinecure of Deputy PM or First Secretary of State. It has the making of another Geoffrey Howe/dead sheep scenario in the making.
HS2 is shovel ready, builders on standby and it will add an immediate economic boost to the West Midlands when construction gets underway. Sure, see if the contract and cost structures can be improved but there's no way he'll cancel it. At most he'll kick the Euston terminal into the future.
Even if he enjoys a decent term in office, he'll have done well to get parliamentary approval for the Northern Powerhouse rail stuff or any local rail/tram networks (or Crossrail 2) before he stands down as PM. He's got to actually deliver visible infrastructure spending and he knows it.
If you want a bit of good news though; the Olympics starts a year today and the Ashes starts a week tomorrow and the RWC in about six weeks.
Nevertheless, as discussed yesterday, Labour needs to pick a woman, and she is the most senior and experienced (Cooper is experienced but not a likely pick).
Also worth remembering that in this political climate, being next PM doesn’t necessarily mean getting a majority. It may not even mean getting the most votes (although the party that did would have a strong moral case). Indeed Labour could conceivably come third in terms of votes and be in the running to put forward a potential PM.
Therefore the question might be which opposition leader would be acceptable to/able to do a deal with the SNP and/or LibDems. Thornberry isn’t an inconceivable answer.
Off topic an expert on R4 says its is better in hot weather to sleep with some thin night clothes than with none.
If there's an earlier election and it's focused on Brexit, I think we'll see tactical voting on an epic scale on both sides. Anecdotally, a friend in an ultra-marginal (LibDems lost their deposit) who is a lifelong LibDem, dislikes Corbyn, thinks Labour borderline anti-semitic and has said many times that she'll never vote for them, said she probably will, because "the alternative is so dreadful". I'm sure the reverse is true among hardline Brexiteers. The problem will be that in many seats the "correcT" tactical vote will be hideously difficult to work out.
The success of the YouGov constituency model last time will be a big help for informed tactical voting; the issue will be now effectively the information is disseminated. But with the Remain vote being younger and motivated, the internet will be effective as never before.
I certainly don’t believe she would win them an election. In the scenario you describe I would be more inclined to back Swinson as next PM.
Will they be stupid enough to oblige him ? I think they will.
It is, as Danny Finkelstein points out in the Times, his best chance of success. Problem is, it also carries the risk of failing soonest, so he might well not take it, in the (almost certainly vain) hope that something turns up.
The decision is his first and biggest test.
Are you a Lib Dem now??
https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/status/1153802292908322817?s=21
Hmm.....
Decisions, decision.
And he’ll be enjoying handing out cabinet sweeties to much to give it serious consideration. It won’t take many days before the opportunity is lost.
There is a slim chance he might surprise us.
What would HYUFD do ... ?
You’re far too principled not to reject 95% of the names put up.
If Labour force him into agreeing an extension to get said GE, I don't see that as a major problem. He can accept their terms, but then say a Tory government will take us out on Oct 31st regardless of the extension.
What's the DUP move? No we'll wait for a GE? Surely a risk too far.
That delivers on the mandate 52% of voters voted for to Leave the EU and the commitment in the Conservative manifesto of 2017 that 'we will get on with the job and take Britain out of the European Union' on page 7 and to deliver Brexit and take Britain out of the EU, which got a majority in GB and in the UK with the Leave backing DUP
https://www.conservatives.com/manifesto
If he calls for an early election (no doubt some parallel to Churchill can be drawn), he can paint it as a feat of derring do... And if he can get an electoral pact with Farage, he surely has a very good chance of winning.
Is your argument that we would campaign AGAINST our own deal for remain?
Labour are remain in opposition - we oppose "Tory Brexit" (aka the Withdrawal Agreement between the EU and UK), and we oppose no deal Brexit. But elect us into government and we will deliver Brexit. Remain in Opposition. Leave in Office. Its rampant bullshit mate, and thats why we're going to get a spanking if Boris discovers a brain cell and calls an election
According to commentators this morning BJ's plan is to make India his prime target of trade and to that end he thinks Patel is the answer. So perhaps Foreign Secretary.
We shallow people have a right to be heard. Whatever Priti's politics, she is at least good-looking.
Has the media turned totally into Chat magazine now? Oh, and Laura Kuenssberg does ask sharp questions sometimes. Most of the rest are either lickspittles or after a headline.
If Boris is serious about uniting the country he won’t be taking a leaf out of the book of Trump, Bibi and Salvini. I appreciate they are popular but they are not uniting figures are they?
Boris will need to do some things differently and he will need to reach out to your so called “die hard remainers” if he is going to be a true uniting figure.
Can Johnson succeed in getting the Withdrawal Agreement including backstop through, when Theresa May failed to do so? (And which he previously led the opposition to). Will it change the electoral dynamics to his advantage with the Brexit and Remain parties?
What happens if he fails to do so?
The Tories are in a bind.
Then next week Brecon. The papers are scared the Lib Dems might win big there and throw a great big spanner in the works, hence shouts for an election now?.
Will be an interesting 8 dayus, I do not know how it will turn out.