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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mandate, what mandate?

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mandate, what mandate?

Boris’s election as Tory party leader and Prime Minister is the 8th occasion since WW2 when a new PM has been chosen in between general elections. On 5 of the previous 7 occasions, it was the Tories changing leader (Churchill to Eden, Eden to Macmillan, Macmillan to Douglas-Home, Thatcher to Major and Cameron to May). Only Macmillan and Major went on to win majorities at the subsequent election. On the 2 occasions when Labour made a similar change (Wilson to Callaghan and Blair to Brown) the successors lost.

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Comments

  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Good article, I doubt he'll go to the country though unless all other means are exhausted.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Again, unlikely. An extension would still be needed. What would the other option on the ballot paper be? And if the referendum was lost, there would be pressure for yet another resignation. Boris’s vanity would be hurt if his legacy was to be the second (not even the first!) Tory PM to lose a European referendum. And the Tory party’s nerves could not stand it, let alone the country.
    Disappointingly can't do attitude there, unsuited to the new era of Great British optimism.

    If he calls a referendum he may well win, and if he doesn't he may well survive; The SNP have proved that being on the losing side can be an electoral asset.

    The tricky part is that he'll first want to pivot to something that won't kill him if he wins and actually has to implement the result, which means rebranding the WA.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited July 2019
    interesting conversation between katy Adler and Laura Kuinsberg about the future of Brexit on radio 5. Adler seems to be very wary about Johnson and his chances of success. Kuinsberg is like an excited school girl where everything might be brilliant.

    Adler is showing herself to have a much deeper understanding of what's required and the people involved on both sides. Kuinsberg is just giddy.Talking about how enthusiasm might carry us through and quoting Johnson press releases
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Brave and honourable? That'll be a no then
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Why the fuss about mandates ?

    Since parliament wont implement the current elecoral mandate on Brexit there is no moral pressure on BJ to obtain one simply a grubby realpolitik of do what suits you, This parliament has no claim to a higher calling in serving the electorate they simply serve themselves and their mates.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    It is Theresa May's last PMQs today. The last chance for an MP who has read Cyclefree's headline piece, to ask where in the 2017 manifesto, which four times speaks of a smooth and orderly Brexit, is there a mandate for crashing out with no deal?

    Is Jeremy Corbyn still crowdsourcing questions?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Why the fuss about mandates ?

    Since parliament wont implement the current elecoral mandate on Brexit there is no moral pressure on BJ to obtain one simply a grubby realpolitik of do what suits you, This parliament has no claim to a higher calling in serving the electorate they simply serve themselves and their mates.

    Parliament does not have an electoral mandate on Brexit or anything else: the government does.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    edited July 2019
    In the spirit of optimism I will make a prediction that will probably look foolish by Oct 31 (pessismist/realist in me says much sooner!).

    We will get a completely different deal done with the EU and leave by Oct 31. It will be based on maintaining current arrangements during negotiations for an FTA. So during the next stage/transition/negotiations there are no changes to our trade or freedom of movement, we pay into the EU budget but lose representation. We maintain a right to exit the deal at a time our choosing if we dont agree a FTA. We will formally have left the EU, but in practice businesses and voters won't notice any difference during the transition.

    Labour will oppose as a blind Tory brexit, but less than 15 tory MPs vote against and enough Labour leavers abstain to wave it through.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    No Tory MP resignations overnight, so it looks like we’ll have a new PM this afternoon - 8th PM of my lifetime, although I have little memory of Mr Callaghan.

    Not my preferred choice, but nonetheless wish him well and hope he can assemble a good team around him.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sandpit said:

    No Tory MP resignations overnight, so it looks like we’ll have a new PM this afternoon - 8th PM of my lifetime, although I have little memory of Mr Callaghan.

    Not my preferred choice, but nonetheless wish him well and hope he can assemble a good team around him.

    However many Tory MPs resigned overnight, Boris would still become prime minister. There is no such thing as an advisory confidence vote in a backbencher. Boris would, as leader of the Conservative Party, still be the MP most likely to be able to form a government. However many MPs oppose Boris, more oppose Hunt.

    And the reason the Conservative Party dragged out the leadership contest is to give Boris eight weeks over the recess to shore up support.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Sandpit said:

    No Tory MP resignations overnight, so it looks like we’ll have a new PM this afternoon - 8th PM of my lifetime, although I have little memory of Mr Callaghan.

    Not my preferred choice, but nonetheless wish him well and hope he can assemble a good team around him.

    However many Tory MPs resigned overnight, Boris would still become prime minister. There is no such thing as an advisory confidence vote in a backbencher. Boris would, as leader of the Conservative Party, still be the MP most likely to be able to form a government. However many MPs oppose Boris, more oppose Hunt.

    And the reason the Conservative Party dragged out the leadership contest is to give Boris eight weeks over the recess to shore up support.
    Would be very surprised if the reverse doesn’t happen.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Sandpit said:

    No Tory MP resignations overnight, so it looks like we’ll have a new PM this afternoon - 8th PM of my lifetime, although I have little memory of Mr Callaghan.

    Not my preferred choice, but nonetheless wish him well and hope he can assemble a good team around him.

    My memory goes back as far as McMillan resigning and Alec Douglas Home becoming PM.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Be glad when we reach the weekend and this damned heatwave is over.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Good morning, everyone.

    Be glad when we reach the weekend and this damned heatwave is over.

    In some parts of the world it’s already 38°C, and not yet 10am ;)
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    I read that Johnson has already ruled out scrapping HS2. He conducted that “review” quickly!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    alex. said:

    I read that Johnson has already ruled out scrapping HS2. He conducted that “review” quickly!

    Not as quick as Corbyn's on anti Semitism..
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Boris offered Hunt defence and Hunt turned it down

    In view of that where is Penny heading
  • Eden fought an election on 26 May 1955, at which he increased the Conservative majority from seventeen to sixty.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Eden fought an election on 26 May 1955, at which he increased the Conservative majority from seventeen to sixty.

    Welcome to PB
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    If Boris is VoNC'ed and no alternative government put together within a fortnight,
    " .. the last day for tabling of a vote of no confidence to guarantee a change of Government through an election is today, not September 3rd, and the Leader of the Opposition’s dithering has virtually guaranteed that this cannot be used"

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/07/chris-white-what-will-the-new-prime-ministers-parliamentary-options-be-on-brexit.html
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,716
    Good morning, PB-rrs. And a fine bright moring it is, sitting here in Anglesey with a view over the bau towards the mountains of Gwynedd.
    Staying for a few days with in-laws.... wife's brother who met at Young Conservatives over 50 years ago and ben generally speaking loyal to their party ever since.
    Both were remainers, but while he is still of th same mind she holds that 'we mde the decision to leave and should'. Neither is particularly enamoured of Boris J, but both have a high opinion of Nigel Farage.
    It's going to be a difficult few days; got to avoid politics.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Good morning, PB-rrs. And a fine bright moring it is, sitting here in Anglesey with a view over the bau towards the mountains of Gwynedd.
    Staying for a few days with in-laws.... wife's brother who met at Young Conservatives over 50 years ago and ben generally speaking loyal to their party ever since.
    Both were remainers, but while he is still of th same mind she holds that 'we mde the decision to leave and should'. Neither is particularly enamoured of Boris J, but both have a high opinion of Nigel Farage.
    It's going to be a difficult few days; got to avoid politics.

    Relax and enjoy the wonders and beauty of North Wales, which I have been doing for over 54 years .

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Sandpit, do you have aircon?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    alex. said:

    I read that Johnson has already ruled out scrapping HS2. He conducted that “review” quickly!

    Not as quick as Corbyn's on anti Semitism..
    Boris pledged an inquiry into Conservative Party Islamophobia. Let's see how fast that reports, or even starts.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    geoffw said:

    If Boris is VoNC'ed and no alternative government put together within a fortnight,
    " .. the last day for tabling of a vote of no confidence to guarantee a change of Government through an election is today, not September 3rd, and the Leader of the Opposition’s dithering has virtually guaranteed that this cannot be used"

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/07/chris-white-what-will-the-new-prime-ministers-parliamentary-options-be-on-brexit.html

    If he had any political sense he would have called for one yesterday.

  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited July 2019
    One for the historians. If rumours are to be believed Johnson is going to bring back into the cabinet 2 maybe 3 people who have been sacked or resigned in disgrace in the current Parliament. When was the last time this happened?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    geoffw said:

    If Boris is VoNC'ed and no alternative government put together within a fortnight,
    " .. the last day for tabling of a vote of no confidence to guarantee a change of Government through an election is today, not September 3rd, and the Leader of the Opposition’s dithering has virtually guaranteed that this cannot be used"

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/07/chris-white-what-will-the-new-prime-ministers-parliamentary-options-be-on-brexit.html

    Yep, any attempt by rebel Tories or Labour to force a GE or VoNC has to happen immediately. Any attempt to prove that Boris didn’t have a majority at all is probably too late already, that should have been done yesterday.

    It’s now a game of chicken with the EU up to October 31st - either they change the WA or it’s no deal.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Mr. Sandpit, do you have aircon?

    Maybe...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081

    Good morning, everyone.

    Be glad when we reach the weekend and this damned heatwave is over.

    The worst lies ahead!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited July 2019

    alex. said:

    I read that Johnson has already ruled out scrapping HS2. He conducted that “review” quickly!

    Not as quick as Corbyn's on anti Semitism..
    Boris pledged an inquiry into Conservative Party Islamophobia. Let's see how fast that reports, or even starts.
    Is that your justification for Cornyn doing nothing? Its irrelevant anyway... Alex was trying to give Boris a kicking, but he so one eyed he cannot see the realities.

    At least I loathe Boris and wouldn't trust him with a bargepole.
  • O/T if people are seriously going to bet on Emily Thornberry as next PM I will be filling my boots opposing them.
    She would be crucified in a GE campaign. The tories could put up Lord Snooty against her and beat them. It would be sheer electoral suicide.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Sandpit said:

    geoffw said:

    If Boris is VoNC'ed and no alternative government put together within a fortnight,
    " .. the last day for tabling of a vote of no confidence to guarantee a change of Government through an election is today, not September 3rd, and the Leader of the Opposition’s dithering has virtually guaranteed that this cannot be used"

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/07/chris-white-what-will-the-new-prime-ministers-parliamentary-options-be-on-brexit.html

    Yep, any attempt by rebel Tories or Labour to force a GE or VoNC has to happen immediately. Any attempt to prove that Boris didn’t have a majority at all is probably too late already, that should have been done yesterday.

    It’s now a game of chicken with the EU up to October 31st - either they change the WA or it’s no deal.
    The main thing is that we can be assured that Johnson will be working every hour of every day to get a satisfactory outcome. Or at least will put some good people in place to do it for him.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    Sandpit said:

    geoffw said:

    If Boris is VoNC'ed and no alternative government put together within a fortnight,
    " .. the last day for tabling of a vote of no confidence to guarantee a change of Government through an election is today, not September 3rd, and the Leader of the Opposition’s dithering has virtually guaranteed that this cannot be used"

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/07/chris-white-what-will-the-new-prime-ministers-parliamentary-options-be-on-brexit.html

    Yep, any attempt by rebel Tories or Labour to force a GE or VoNC has to happen immediately. Any attempt to prove that Boris didn’t have a majority at all is probably too late already, that should have been done yesterday.

    It’s now a game of chicken with the EU up to October 31st - either they change the WA or it’s no deal.
    Yes and no. Labour has ruled it out for now, so we have to wait until the autumn. The threat of a VONC could still be very useful. Or a later VONC could be used to replace the PM and extend/revoke.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    alex. said:

    One for the historians. If rumours are to be believed Johnson is going to bring back into the cabinet 2 maybe 3 people who have been sacked or resigned in disgrace in the current Parliament. When was the last time this happened?


    Mandleson?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    alex. said:

    I read that Johnson has already ruled out scrapping HS2. He conducted that “review” quickly!

    Not as quick as Corbyn's on anti Semitism..
    Boris pledged an inquiry into Conservative Party Islamophobia. Let's see how fast that reports, or even starts.
    Is that your justification for Cornyn doing nothing? Its irrelevant anyway... Alex was trying to give Boris a kicking, but he so one eyed he cannot see the realities.

    At least I loathe Boris and wouldn't trust him with a bargepole.
    You seem to be under the misapprehension that we are on different minds on that one.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,716

    Good morning, PB-rrs. And a fine bright moring it is, sitting here in Anglesey with a view over the bau towards the mountains of Gwynedd.
    Staying for a few days with in-laws.... wife's brother who met at Young Conservatives over 50 years ago and ben generally speaking loyal to their party ever since.
    Both were remainers, but while he is still of th same mind she holds that 'we mde the decision to leave and should'. Neither is particularly enamoured of Boris J, but both have a high opinion of Nigel Farage.
    It's going to be a difficult few days; got to avoid politics.

    Relax and enjoy the wonders and beauty of North Wales, which I have been doing for over 54 years .

    I notice, Mr G, that you don't avoid politics! However, Criccieth today, to a place of great family significance.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited July 2019
    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:

    One for the historians. If rumours are to be believed Johnson is going to bring back into the cabinet 2 maybe 3 people who have been sacked or resigned in disgrace in the current Parliament. When was the last time this happened?


    Mandleson?
    You’re right, for some reason I thought he had elections in between his various resignations. So all normal!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081

    Eden fought an election on 26 May 1955, at which he increased the Conservative majority from seventeen to sixty.


    The first television election. One called by a Tory PM expecting to cash in Big from a civil war in the opposition party, who instead to everyone’s surprise only cashed in small.
  • In the spirit of optimism I will make a prediction that will probably look foolish by Oct 31 (pessismist/realist in me says much sooner!).

    We will get a completely different deal done with the EU and leave by Oct 31. It will be based on maintaining current arrangements during negotiations for an FTA. So during the next stage/transition/negotiations there are no changes to our trade or freedom of movement, we pay into the EU budget but lose representation. We maintain a right to exit the deal at a time our choosing if we dont agree a FTA. We will formally have left the EU, but in practice businesses and voters won't notice any difference during the transition.

    Labour will oppose as a blind Tory brexit, but less than 15 tory MPs vote against and enough Labour leavers abstain to wave it through.

    I can’t see the ERG falling for that one. Johnson may as well pay for the BXP election leaflets out of his party coffers as Tory donors will be queuing up to back him.

    That is not to say he won’t try it, mind.

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    So will Jeremy Hunt be spending more time with this foxhounds?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Sandpit, well, then.

    I'll happily trade you the atmosphere of your aircon for the lower temp, and no aircon conditions here.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    Sandpit said:



    It’s now a game of chicken with the EU up to October 31st - either they change the WA or it’s no deal.

    The EU know that the Grievous Angel and his gnomish henchman Bercow will prevent no deal.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    alex. said:

    geoffw said:

    If Boris is VoNC'ed and no alternative government put together within a fortnight,
    " .. the last day for tabling of a vote of no confidence to guarantee a change of Government through an election is today, not September 3rd, and the Leader of the Opposition’s dithering has virtually guaranteed that this cannot be used"

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/07/chris-white-what-will-the-new-prime-ministers-parliamentary-options-be-on-brexit.html

    If he had any political sense he would have called for one yesterday.

    What would be the point in a vote of no confidence in Theresa May's government? At best it might delay handover to Boris by a couple of hours.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081

    Why the fuss about mandates ?

    Since parliament wont implement the current elecoral mandate on Brexit there is no moral pressure on BJ to obtain one simply a grubby realpolitik of do what suits you, This parliament has no claim to a higher calling in serving the electorate they simply serve themselves and their mates.

    Parliament does not have an electoral mandate on Brexit or anything else: the government does.
    Yet so many try to task opposition MPs with keeping the government’s promise
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    alex. said:

    geoffw said:

    If Boris is VoNC'ed and no alternative government put together within a fortnight,
    " .. the last day for tabling of a vote of no confidence to guarantee a change of Government through an election is today, not September 3rd, and the Leader of the Opposition’s dithering has virtually guaranteed that this cannot be used"

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/07/chris-white-what-will-the-new-prime-ministers-parliamentary-options-be-on-brexit.html

    If he had any political sense he would have called for one yesterday.

    They didn’t think they would win. And they are probably right - the ‘give him a chance/let’s see what he will do’ tendency is uppermost right now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081

    alex. said:

    geoffw said:

    If Boris is VoNC'ed and no alternative government put together within a fortnight,
    " .. the last day for tabling of a vote of no confidence to guarantee a change of Government through an election is today, not September 3rd, and the Leader of the Opposition’s dithering has virtually guaranteed that this cannot be used"

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/07/chris-white-what-will-the-new-prime-ministers-parliamentary-options-be-on-brexit.html

    If he had any political sense he would have called for one yesterday.

    What would be the point in a vote of no confidence in Theresa May's government? At best it might delay handover to Boris by a couple of hours.
    It would have been tabling a VONC with the Speaker in anticipation of the change today. Would surely have been called by the Speaker if it came from LOTO, but likely lost.

    The way to bring Boris down is properly, with a batch of rebels from his own side.

    Even people in despair that so many think he is the right appointment are now curious to see what does next...
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Mr Brooke,

    "Why the fuss about mandates ?"

    Indeed. We have an opposition party who call themselves Liberal "Democrats" who immediately refused to accept a referendum result, and would refuse to accept the result of another one unless it resulted in the answer they wanted.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    alex. said:

    Sandpit said:

    geoffw said:

    If Boris is VoNC'ed and no alternative government put together within a fortnight,
    " .. the last day for tabling of a vote of no confidence to guarantee a change of Government through an election is today, not September 3rd, and the Leader of the Opposition’s dithering has virtually guaranteed that this cannot be used"

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/07/chris-white-what-will-the-new-prime-ministers-parliamentary-options-be-on-brexit.html

    Yep, any attempt by rebel Tories or Labour to force a GE or VoNC has to happen immediately. Any attempt to prove that Boris didn’t have a majority at all is probably too late already, that should have been done yesterday.

    It’s now a game of chicken with the EU up to October 31st - either they change the WA or it’s no deal.
    The main thing is that we can be assured that Johnson will be working every hour of every day to get a satisfactory outcome. Or at least will put some good people in place to do it for him.

    This is a guy who has been skipping his homework since a child, handed in his student and journalistic work at the last minute (or usually late), and tried to wing every job he has ever done.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    So will Jeremy Hunt be spending more time with this foxhounds?

    Interesting situation.

    Hunt polled a third of the membership which was better than expected. Offering Hunt a demotion could hardly be seen as bringing the party together and the optic of moving the Foreign Secretary during the present crisis in the Middle East isn't a clever one.

    Does Hunt have the bottle to turn down a demotion even if it comes with the sinecure of Deputy PM or First Secretary of State. It has the making of another Geoffrey Howe/dead sheep scenario in the making.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited July 2019
    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:

    geoffw said:

    If Boris is VoNC'ed and no alternative government put together within a fortnight,
    " .. the last day for tabling of a vote of no confidence to guarantee a change of Government through an election is today, not September 3rd, and the Leader of the Opposition’s dithering has virtually guaranteed that this cannot be used"

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/07/chris-white-what-will-the-new-prime-ministers-parliamentary-options-be-on-brexit.html

    If he had any political sense he would have called for one yesterday.

    What would be the point in a vote of no confidence in Theresa May's government? At best it might delay handover to Boris by a couple of hours.
    It would have been tabling a VONC with the Speaker in anticipation of the change today. Would surely have been called by the Speaker if it came from LOTO, but likely lost.

    The way to bring Boris down is properly, with a batch of rebels from his own side.

    Even people in despair that so many think he is the right appointment are now curious to see what does next...
    The point is the government would know the VONC had been tabled so could simply delay handover until after the vote.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    alex. said:

    I read that Johnson has already ruled out scrapping HS2. He conducted that “review” quickly!

    BJ must be acutely aware of the need to protect himself from the charge that he's all fur coat and no knickers on public infrastructure. So far we've had cancellation of much needed Thames road crossings in favour of the Cable Car and the now defunct Garden Bridge, futile opposition to Runway 3 and his primarily NIMBY based moaning about HS2.

    HS2 is shovel ready, builders on standby and it will add an immediate economic boost to the West Midlands when construction gets underway. Sure, see if the contract and cost structures can be improved but there's no way he'll cancel it. At most he'll kick the Euston terminal into the future.

    Even if he enjoys a decent term in office, he'll have done well to get parliamentary approval for the Northern Powerhouse rail stuff or any local rail/tram networks (or Crossrail 2) before he stands down as PM. He's got to actually deliver visible infrastructure spending and he knows it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    As Cyclefree says, Boris Johnson has a thumping party mandate, he does not have one from the country. If he wants to get serious stuff done, sooner or later he is going to need to take the icy bath of a national election campaign. Best done soonest, I’d say. Otherwise, he’s just going to be drifting.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    If Boris is bringing Priti Patel back he wants his head examining. Hers is easily the most deserved and disgraceful sacking in the past few years. Running a parallel foreign policy? She should at least have had the good sense to defect.

    If you want a bit of good news though; the Olympics starts a year today and the Ashes starts a week tomorrow and the RWC in about six weeks.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081

    O/T if people are seriously going to bet on Emily Thornberry as next PM I will be filling my boots opposing them.
    She would be crucified in a GE campaign. The tories could put up Lord Snooty against her and beat them. It would be sheer electoral suicide.


    Nevertheless, as discussed yesterday, Labour needs to pick a woman, and she is the most senior and experienced (Cooper is experienced but not a likely pick).

    Also worth remembering that in this political climate, being next PM doesn’t necessarily mean getting a majority. It may not even mean getting the most votes (although the party that did would have a strong moral case). Indeed Labour could conceivably come third in terms of votes and be in the running to put forward a potential PM.

    Therefore the question might be which opposition leader would be acceptable to/able to do a deal with the SNP and/or LibDems. Thornberry isn’t an inconceivable answer.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545

    As Cyclefree says, Boris Johnson has a thumping party mandate, he does not have one from the country. If he wants to get serious stuff done, sooner or later he is going to need to take the icy bath of a national election campaign. Best done soonest, I’d say. Otherwise, he’s just going to be drifting.

    He has to win that election convincingly. The situation is volatile and so he might do so later. The prospects don't look good right now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    moonshine said:

    alex. said:

    I read that Johnson has already ruled out scrapping HS2. He conducted that “review” quickly!

    BJ must be acutely aware of the need to protect himself from the charge that he's all fur coat and no knickers on public infrastructure. So far we've had cancellation of much needed Thames road crossings in favour of the Cable Car and the now defunct Garden Bridge, futile opposition to Runway 3 and his primarily NIMBY based moaning about HS2.

    HS2 is shovel ready, builders on standby and it will add an immediate economic boost to the West Midlands when construction gets underway. Sure, see if the contract and cost structures can be improved but there's no way he'll cancel it. At most he'll kick the Euston terminal into the future.

    Even if he enjoys a decent term in office, he'll have done well to get parliamentary approval for the Northern Powerhouse rail stuff or any local rail/tram networks (or Crossrail 2) before he stands down as PM. He's got to actually deliver visible infrastructure spending and he knows it.
    Isn’t he more likely to go for HS2+ by advancing high speed rail up north?

    Off topic an expert on R4 says its is better in hot weather to sleep with some thin night clothes than with none.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    In the spirit of optimism I will make a prediction that will probably look foolish by Oct 31 (pessismist/realist in me says much sooner!).

    We will get a completely different deal done with the EU and leave by Oct 31. It will be based on maintaining current arrangements during negotiations for an FTA. So during the next stage/transition/negotiations there are no changes to our trade or freedom of movement, we pay into the EU budget but lose representation. We maintain a right to exit the deal at a time our choosing if we dont agree a FTA. We will formally have left the EU, but in practice businesses and voters won't notice any difference during the transition.

    Labour will oppose as a blind Tory brexit, but less than 15 tory MPs vote against and enough Labour leavers abstain to wave it through.

    That's the plan, I think, insofar as a plan exists. BINO will be sold to Brexiteers as "we're out, we can do detail later" and to the rest of the country as "at last it's out of the way". Delivered with panache (which Boris's greatest critics don't deny) during his honeymoon, and I think it may work. He'll then call an election, and the Remain parties, including mine, will have the problem that we've actually left, so they're advocating reapplying, to which many voters will roll their eyes.

    If there's an earlier election and it's focused on Brexit, I think we'll see tactical voting on an epic scale on both sides. Anecdotally, a friend in an ultra-marginal (LibDems lost their deposit) who is a lifelong LibDem, dislikes Corbyn, thinks Labour borderline anti-semitic and has said many times that she'll never vote for them, said she probably will, because "the alternative is so dreadful". I'm sure the reverse is true among hardline Brexiteers. The problem will be that in many seats the "correcT" tactical vote will be hideously difficult to work out.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    I think an early election is inevitable. The election of Boris does not undo the damage that May did since 2017 or overcome the divides in the Commons (and both the main parties). My guess is that Boris will give the Commons a challenge about either accepting a deal or no deal. If they are still not minded to do either an election is the only way forward. I think that this will come quickly. This House of Commons is not fit for purpose.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081

    In the spirit of optimism I will make a prediction that will probably look foolish by Oct 31 (pessismist/realist in me says much sooner!).

    We will get a completely different deal done with the EU and leave by Oct 31. It will be based on maintaining current arrangements during negotiations for an FTA. So during the next stage/transition/negotiations there are no changes to our trade or freedom of movement, we pay into the EU budget but lose representation. We maintain a right to exit the deal at a time our choosing if we dont agree a FTA. We will formally have left the EU, but in practice businesses and voters won't notice any difference during the transition.

    Labour will oppose as a blind Tory brexit, but less than 15 tory MPs vote against and enough Labour leavers abstain to wave it through.

    That's the plan, I think, insofar as a plan exists. BINO will be sold to Brexiteers as "we're out, we can do detail later" and to the rest of the country as "at last it's out of the way". Delivered with panache (which Boris's greatest critics don't deny) during his honeymoon, and I think it may work. He'll then call an election, and the Remain parties, including mine, will have the problem that we've actually left, so they're advocating reapplying, to which many voters will roll their eyes.

    If there's an earlier election and it's focused on Brexit, I think we'll see tactical voting on an epic scale on both sides. Anecdotally, a friend in an ultra-marginal (LibDems lost their deposit) who is a lifelong LibDem, dislikes Corbyn, thinks Labour borderline anti-semitic and has said many times that she'll never vote for them, said she probably will, because "the alternative is so dreadful". I'm sure the reverse is true among hardline Brexiteers. The problem will be that in many seats the "correcT" tactical vote will be hideously difficult to work out.
    I broadly agree with this (and have been backing the “neverending BINO” scenario as most likely for some time.

    The success of the YouGov constituency model last time will be a big help for informed tactical voting; the issue will be now effectively the information is disseminated. But with the Remain vote being younger and motivated, the internet will be effective as never before.
  • IanB2 said:

    O/T if people are seriously going to bet on Emily Thornberry as next PM I will be filling my boots opposing them.
    She would be crucified in a GE campaign. The tories could put up Lord Snooty against her and beat them. It would be sheer electoral suicide.


    Nevertheless, as discussed yesterday, Labour needs to pick a woman, and she is the most senior and experienced (Cooper is experienced but not a likely pick).

    Also worth remembering that in this political climate, being next PM doesn’t necessarily mean getting a majority. It may not even mean getting the most votes (although the party that did would have a strong moral case). Indeed Labour could conceivably come third in terms of votes and be in the running to put forward a potential PM.

    Therefore the question might be which opposition leader would be acceptable to/able to do a deal with the SNP and/or LibDems. Thornberry isn’t an inconceivable answer.
    I can certainly see your point of view on this I just think it would be electoral madness to go down that route.
    I certainly don’t believe she would win them an election. In the scenario you describe I would be more inclined to back Swinson as next PM.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,701

    Sandpit said:

    No Tory MP resignations overnight, so it looks like we’ll have a new PM this afternoon - 8th PM of my lifetime, although I have little memory of Mr Callaghan.

    Not my preferred choice, but nonetheless wish him well and hope he can assemble a good team around him.

    My memory goes back as far as McMillan resigning and Alec Douglas Home becoming PM.
    Those events happened in my lifetime but Wilson pre-1970 is the first PM I can recall.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    To win a GE , Boris needs the HoC to get in the way again.

    Will they be stupid enough to oblige him ? I think they will.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571

    As Cyclefree says, Boris Johnson has a thumping party mandate, he does not have one from the country. If he wants to get serious stuff done, sooner or later he is going to need to take the icy bath of a national election campaign. Best done soonest, I’d say. Otherwise, he’s just going to be drifting.

    I agree.
    It is, as Danny Finkelstein points out in the Times, his best chance of success. Problem is, it also carries the risk of failing soonest, so he might well not take it, in the (almost certainly vain) hope that something turns up.

    The decision is his first and biggest test.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    edited July 2019

    In the spirit of optimism I will make a prediction that will probably look foolish by Oct 31 (pessismist/realist in me says much sooner!).

    We will get a completely different deal done with the EU and leave by Oct 31. It will be based on maintaining current arrangements during negotiations for an FTA. So during the next stage/transition/negotiations there are no changes to our trade or freedom of movement, we pay into the EU budget but lose representation. We maintain a right to exit the deal at a time our choosing if we dont agree a FTA. We will formally have left the EU, but in practice businesses and voters won't notice any difference during the transition.

    Labour will oppose as a blind Tory brexit, but less than 15 tory MPs vote against and enough Labour leavers abstain to wave it through.

    , and I think it may work. He'll then call an election, and the Remain parties, including mine, will have the problem that we've actually left

    Hadn't realized that you'd left Labour and joined a party supporting remain.

    Are you a Lib Dem now??
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    At least Johnson has a warm reception abroad.

    https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/status/1153802292908322817?s=21
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    edited July 2019



    Hadn't realized that you'd left Labour and joined a party supporting remain.

    Are you a Lib Dem now??

    Do keep up! In Con-Lab marginals where there is no other choice with a chance, Labour is the realistic Remain party because of the guaranteed referendum. As I said, the problem for Remainers will be to work out where this is in fact the choice.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    FF43 said:

    As Cyclefree says, Boris Johnson has a thumping party mandate, he does not have one from the country. If he wants to get serious stuff done, sooner or later he is going to need to take the icy bath of a national election campaign. Best done soonest, I’d say. Otherwise, he’s just going to be drifting.

    He has to win that election convincingly. The situation is volatile and so he might do so later. The prospects don't look good right now.
    To be clear, I don’t think he has the nerve to call one and if he did I think he would find himself out of a job. So ineffectual drift it is.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571



    Hadn't realized that you'd left Labour and joined a party supporting remain.

    Are you a Lib Dem now??

    Do keep up! Labour is the realistic Remain party with a guaranteed referendum.
    As the start of a rebranding exercise, that leaves a bit to be desired, Nick.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Well, HMG are looking for a chair of the Honours Committee.

    Hmm.....

    Decisions, decision.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571

    FF43 said:

    As Cyclefree says, Boris Johnson has a thumping party mandate, he does not have one from the country. If he wants to get serious stuff done, sooner or later he is going to need to take the icy bath of a national election campaign. Best done soonest, I’d say. Otherwise, he’s just going to be drifting.

    He has to win that election convincingly. The situation is volatile and so he might do so later. The prospects don't look good right now.
    To be clear, I don’t think he has the nerve to call one and if he did I think he would find himself out of a job. So ineffectual drift it is.
    Probably right.
    And he’ll be enjoying handing out cabinet sweeties to much to give it serious consideration. It won’t take many days before the opportunity is lost.

    There is a slim chance he might surprise us.

    What would HYUFD do ... ? :smile:
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    FF43 said:

    As Cyclefree says, Boris Johnson has a thumping party mandate, he does not have one from the country. If he wants to get serious stuff done, sooner or later he is going to need to take the icy bath of a national election campaign. Best done soonest, I’d say. Otherwise, he’s just going to be drifting.

    He has to win that election convincingly. The situation is volatile and so he might do so later. The prospects don't look good right now.
    To be clear, I don’t think he has the nerve to call one and if he did I think he would find himself out of a job. So ineffectual drift it is.
    So do I. I was rather trying to goad him - or his supporters on here - since we're always been told how much of a vote-winner he is.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, HMG are looking for a chair of the Honours Committee.

    Hmm.....

    Decisions, decision.

    Wouldn’t work.
    You’re far too principled not to reject 95% of the names put up.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Roger said:

    interesting conversation between katy Adler and Laura Kuinsberg about the future of Brexit on radio 5. Adler seems to be very wary about Johnson and his chances of success. Kuinsberg is like an excited school girl where everything might be brilliant.

    Adler is showing herself to have a much deeper understanding of what's required and the people involved on both sides. Kuinsberg is just giddy.Talking about how enthusiasm might carry us through and quoting Johnson press releases

    Kuinsberg is crap
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Yep - I reckon Boris' way out is another general election. There'll probably be some faffing beforehand - perhaps to make it look like he exhausted other options.

    If Labour force him into agreeing an extension to get said GE, I don't see that as a major problem. He can accept their terms, but then say a Tory government will take us out on Oct 31st regardless of the extension.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Nigelb said:

    As Cyclefree says, Boris Johnson has a thumping party mandate, he does not have one from the country. If he wants to get serious stuff done, sooner or later he is going to need to take the icy bath of a national election campaign. Best done soonest, I’d say. Otherwise, he’s just going to be drifting.

    I agree.
    It is, as Danny Finkelstein points out in the Times, his best chance of success. Problem is, it also carries the risk of failing soonest, so he might well not take it, in the (almost certainly vain) hope that something turns up.

    The decision is his first and biggest test.
    Or, simply, he gets the deal through with some blather in the PD. Cabinet full of Brexiters and present the deal again.

    What's the DUP move? No we'll wait for a GE? Surely a risk too far.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    alex. said:

    Sandpit said:

    geoffw said:

    If Boris is VoNC'ed and no alternative government put together within a fortnight,
    " .. the last day for tabling of a vote of no confidence to guarantee a change of Government through an election is today, not September 3rd, and the Leader of the Opposition’s dithering has virtually guaranteed that this cannot be used"

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/07/chris-white-what-will-the-new-prime-ministers-parliamentary-options-be-on-brexit.html

    Yep, any attempt by rebel Tories or Labour to force a GE or VoNC has to happen immediately. Any attempt to prove that Boris didn’t have a majority at all is probably too late already, that should have been done yesterday.

    It’s now a game of chicken with the EU up to October 31st - either they change the WA or it’s no deal.
    The main thing is that we can be assured that Johnson will be working every hour of every day to get a satisfactory outcome. Or at least will put some good people in place to do it for him.
    I doubt Boris knows the meaning of hard work. And as for your last sentence - if the rumours about Priti are true, well.....
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, HMG are looking for a chair of the Honours Committee.

    Hmm.....

    Decisions, decision.

    I vote for @JohnO - utterly impartial and after JohnO's elevation to the peerage he would be no mans Maundy Gregory .... :naughty:
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    IanB2 said:

    O/T if people are seriously going to bet on Emily Thornberry as next PM I will be filling my boots opposing them.
    She would be crucified in a GE campaign. The tories could put up Lord Snooty against her and beat them. It would be sheer electoral suicide.


    Nevertheless, as discussed yesterday, Labour needs to pick a woman, and she is the most senior and experienced (Cooper is experienced but not a likely pick).

    Also worth remembering that in this political climate, being next PM doesn’t necessarily mean getting a majority. It may not even mean getting the most votes (although the party that did would have a strong moral case). Indeed Labour could conceivably come third in terms of votes and be in the running to put forward a potential PM.

    Therefore the question might be which opposition leader would be acceptable to/able to do a deal with the SNP and/or LibDems. Thornberry isn’t an inconceivable answer.
    I can certainly see your point of view on this I just think it would be electoral madness to go down that route.
    I certainly don’t believe she would win them an election. In the scenario you describe I would be more inclined to back Swinson as next PM.
    A chilling thought
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    In the spirit of optimism I will make a prediction that will probably look foolish by Oct 31 (pessismist/realist in me says much sooner!).

    We will get a completely different deal done with the EU and leave by Oct 31. It will be based on maintaining current arrangements during negotiations for an FTA. So during the next stage/transition/negotiations there are no changes to our trade or freedom of movement, we pay into the EU budget but lose representation. We maintain a right to exit the deal at a time our choosing if we dont agree a FTA. We will formally have left the EU, but in practice businesses and voters won't notice any difference during the transition.

    Labour will oppose as a blind Tory brexit, but less than 15 tory MPs vote against and enough Labour leavers abstain to wave it through.

    We could have achieved all that by simply announcing we were no longer going to send MEPs and commissioners. Individuals could have done their own version by not bothering to vote in EU elections.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited July 2019
    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    As Cyclefree says, Boris Johnson has a thumping party mandate, he does not have one from the country. If he wants to get serious stuff done, sooner or later he is going to need to take the icy bath of a national election campaign. Best done soonest, I’d say. Otherwise, he’s just going to be drifting.

    He has to win that election convincingly. The situation is volatile and so he might do so later. The prospects don't look good right now.
    To be clear, I don’t think he has the nerve to call one and if he did I think he would find himself out of a job. So ineffectual drift it is.
    Probably right.
    And he’ll be enjoying handing out cabinet sweeties to much to give it serious consideration. It won’t take many days before the opportunity is lost.

    There is a slim chance he might surprise us.

    What would HYUFD do ... ? :smile:
    Call a general election in the Spring or late autumn having delivered Brexit on October 31st either with a Withdrawal Agreement passed minus the backstop after agreeing the outlines of a technical solution in the future Political Declaration to avoid a hard border and getting a majority for that as the Brady amendment showed there is in the Commons or else refusing an extension in October and Leaving with No Deal on 31st, proroguing Parliament if necessary with a suspension at the end of October and a Queen's Speech in early November.

    That delivers on the mandate 52% of voters voted for to Leave the EU and the commitment in the Conservative manifesto of 2017 that 'we will get on with the job and take Britain out of the European Union' on page 7 and to deliver Brexit and take Britain out of the EU, which got a majority in GB and in the UK with the Leave backing DUP

    https://www.conservatives.com/manifesto
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, HMG are looking for a chair of the Honours Committee.

    Hmm.....

    Decisions, decision.

    Wouldn’t work.
    You’re far too principled not to reject 95% of the names put up.

    I shall use that comment as my reference. :)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763

    FF43 said:

    As Cyclefree says, Boris Johnson has a thumping party mandate, he does not have one from the country. If he wants to get serious stuff done, sooner or later he is going to need to take the icy bath of a national election campaign. Best done soonest, I’d say. Otherwise, he’s just going to be drifting.

    He has to win that election convincingly. The situation is volatile and so he might do so later. The prospects don't look good right now.
    To be clear, I don’t think he has the nerve to call one and if he did I think he would find himself out of a job. So ineffectual drift it is.
    I don't think that he will have the final say in the decision. This is a government well short of a de facto majority, whatever it looks like on paper. The smart thing to do in that scenario is to seize the opportunity to select the ground on which he fights rather than letting others do it for him. But either way an election is pretty inevitable.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    FF43 said:

    As Cyclefree says, Boris Johnson has a thumping party mandate, he does not have one from the country. If he wants to get serious stuff done, sooner or later he is going to need to take the icy bath of a national election campaign. Best done soonest, I’d say. Otherwise, he’s just going to be drifting.

    He has to win that election convincingly. The situation is volatile and so he might do so later. The prospects don't look good right now.
    To be clear, I don’t think he has the nerve to call one and if he did I think he would find himself out of a job. So ineffectual drift it is.
    We'll see. It can only be ineffectual drift until October. At that point, if we are still in the EU and renegotiating or whatever, I'd expect his supporters to be furious and Farage to have turned on him.

    If he calls for an early election (no doubt some parallel to Churchill can be drawn), he can paint it as a feat of derring do... And if he can get an electoral pact with Farage, he surely has a very good chance of winning.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013



    Hadn't realized that you'd left Labour and joined a party supporting remain.

    Are you a Lib Dem now??

    Do keep up! In Con-Lab marginals where there is no other choice with a chance, Labour is the realistic Remain party because of the guaranteed referendum. As I said, the problem for Remainers will be to work out where this is in fact the choice.
    Nick, that simply isn't true. Jezbollah and his wazzock acolytes Burgon and Gardiner keep insisting that a Labour government will negotiate a new "jobs first Brexit" deal with the EU who apparently will drop their red lines like the four freedoms for Him. At which point we will put it to a confirmatory referendum.

    Is your argument that we would campaign AGAINST our own deal for remain?

    Labour are remain in opposition - we oppose "Tory Brexit" (aka the Withdrawal Agreement between the EU and UK), and we oppose no deal Brexit. But elect us into government and we will deliver Brexit. Remain in Opposition. Leave in Office. Its rampant bullshit mate, and thats why we're going to get a spanking if Boris discovers a brain cell and calls an election
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Priti Patel if she is to become Home Secretary will surely be Johnson's achilles heel. She will have the capacity to galvanise a progressive opposition to Johnson's Tories like no other.

    According to commentators this morning BJ's plan is to make India his prime target of trade and to that end he thinks Patel is the answer. So perhaps Foreign Secretary.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Ms Cyclefree,

    We shallow people have a right to be heard. Whatever Priti's politics, she is at least good-looking.

    Has the media turned totally into Chat magazine now? Oh, and Laura Kuenssberg does ask sharp questions sometimes. Most of the rest are either lickspittles or after a headline.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    @HYUFD. Good morning.

    If Boris is serious about uniting the country he won’t be taking a leaf out of the book of Trump, Bibi and Salvini. I appreciate they are popular but they are not uniting figures are they?

    Boris will need to do some things differently and he will need to reach out to your so called “die hard remainers” if he is going to be a true uniting figure.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    edited July 2019

    In the spirit of optimism I will make a prediction that will probably look foolish by Oct 31 (pessismist/realist in me says much sooner!).

    We will get a completely different deal done with the EU and leave by Oct 31. It will be based on maintaining current arrangements during negotiations for an FTA. So during the next stage/transition/negotiations there are no changes to our trade or freedom of movement, we pay into the EU budget but lose representation. We maintain a right to exit the deal at a time our choosing if we dont agree a FTA. We will formally have left the EU, but in practice businesses and voters won't notice any difference during the transition.

    Labour will oppose as a blind Tory brexit, but less than 15 tory MPs vote against and enough Labour leavers abstain to wave it through.

    That's the plan, I think, insofar as a plan exists. BINO will be sold to Brexiteers as "we're out, we can do detail later" and to the rest of the country as "at last it's out of the way". Delivered with panache (which Boris's greatest critics don't deny) during his honeymoon, and I think it may work. He'll then call an election, and the Remain parties, including mine, will have the problem that we've actually left, so they're advocating reapplying, to which many voters will roll their eyes.

    If there's an earlier election and it's focused on Brexit, I think we'll see tactical voting on an epic scale on both sides. Anecdotally, a friend in an ultra-marginal (LibDems lost their deposit) who is a lifelong LibDem, dislikes Corbyn, thinks Labour borderline anti-semitic and has said many times that she'll never vote for them, said she probably will, because "the alternative is so dreadful". I'm sure the reverse is true among hardline Brexiteers. The problem will be that in many seats the "correcT" tactical vote will be hideously difficult to work out.
    I go along with this. It means, despite his rhetoric, that Johnson absolutely needs a deal and this deal will be on the EU'S terms. Nothing has changed since 2016 and nothing will change.

    Can Johnson succeed in getting the Withdrawal Agreement including backstop through, when Theresa May failed to do so? (And which he previously led the opposition to). Will it change the electoral dynamics to his advantage with the Brexit and Remain parties?

    What happens if he fails to do so?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092



    Hadn't realized that you'd left Labour and joined a party supporting remain.

    Are you a Lib Dem now??

    Do keep up! In Con-Lab marginals where there is no other choice with a chance, Labour is the realistic Remain party because of the guaranteed referendum. As I said, the problem for Remainers will be to work out where this is in fact the choice.
    Nick, that simply isn't true. Jezbollah and his wazzock acolytes Burgon and Gardiner keep insisting that a Labour government will negotiate a new "jobs first Brexit" deal with the EU who apparently will drop their red lines like the four freedoms for Him. At which point we will put it to a confirmatory referendum.

    Is your argument that we would campaign AGAINST our own deal for remain?

    Labour are remain in opposition - we oppose "Tory Brexit" (aka the Withdrawal Agreement between the EU and UK), and we oppose no deal Brexit. But elect us into government and we will deliver Brexit. Remain in Opposition. Leave in Office. Its rampant bullshit mate, and thats why we're going to get a spanking if Boris discovers a brain cell and calls an election
    If you want a referendum, you'll vote for the party who will give you one, regardless of which side the leadership will take on that referendum. This is exactly the calculation leavers had to make when choosing between conservatives and ukip in 2015. It worked out pretty well for them
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    A lady on 5Live, a Boris fan, wants him to be like Trudeau!!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    CD13 said:

    Ms Cyclefree,

    We shallow people have a right to be heard. Whatever Priti's politics, she is at least good-looking.

    Has the media turned totally into Chat magazine now? Oh, and Laura Kuenssberg does ask sharp questions sometimes. Most of the rest are either lickspittles or after a headline.

    Seek help , Specsavers for the former and some hearing aids for the latter.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    edited July 2019

    In the spirit of optimism I will make a prediction that will probably look foolish by Oct 31 (pessismist/realist in me says much sooner!).

    We will get a completely different deal done with the EU and leave by Oct 31. It will be based on maintaining current arrangements during negotiations for an FTA. So during the next stage/transition/negotiations there are no changes to our trade or freedom of movement, we pay into the EU budget but lose representation. We maintain a right to exit the deal at a time our choosing if we dont agree a FTA. We will formally have left the EU, but in practice businesses and voters won't notice any difference during the transition.

    Labour will oppose as a blind Tory brexit, but less than 15 tory MPs vote against and enough Labour leavers abstain to wave it through.

    A right to exit at any time means no backstop. The EU will not agree to that. So maybe the solution is to return it to being NI only. The DUP will hate it, but if the Tories get a majority, who cares? The one spanner in the works is the B word - Betrayal. BINO is a gift to the BXP.

    The Tories are in a bind.

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    The problem with the WA is that it was always dependent on the good will of the EU. That they'll say 'Fine, you can go now, and someone else will volunteer to pay the 10 billion a year to make up the deficit', Do we feel lucky?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    In the spirit of optimism I will make a prediction that will probably look foolish by Oct 31 (pessismist/realist in me says much sooner!).

    We will get a completely different deal done with the EU and leave by Oct 31. It will be based on maintaining current arrangements during negotiations for an FTA. So during the next stage/transition/negotiations there are no changes to our trade or freedom of movement, we pay into the EU budget but lose representation. We maintain a right to exit the deal at a time our choosing if we dont agree a FTA. We will formally have left the EU, but in practice businesses and voters won't notice any difference during the transition.

    Labour will oppose as a blind Tory brexit, but less than 15 tory MPs vote against and enough Labour leavers abstain to wave it through.

    That's the plan, I think, insofar as a plan exists. BINO will be sold to Brexiteers as "we're out, we can do detail later" and to the rest of the country as "at last it's out of the way". Delivered with panache (which Boris's greatest critics don't deny) during his honeymoon, and I think it may work. He'll then call an election, and the Remain parties, including mine, will have the problem that we've actually left, so they're advocating reapplying, to which many voters will roll their eyes.

    If there's an earlier election and it's focused on Brexit, I think we'll see tactical voting on an epic scale on both sides. Anecdotally, a friend in an ultra-marginal (LibDems lost their deposit) who is a lifelong LibDem, dislikes Corbyn, thinks Labour borderline anti-semitic and has said many times that she'll never vote for them, said she probably will, because "the alternative is so dreadful". I'm sure the reverse is true among hardline Brexiteers. The problem will be that in many seats the "correcT" tactical vote will be hideously difficult to work out.

    I'd say this is potentially correct. Johnson is definitely Labour's best hope of keeping the largest part of its 2017 coalition together. However, Labour needs to find a way of reaching beyond its relatively low base of committed supporters. The way the party has reacted to Jo Swinson's election suggests that it may struggle to do this.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited July 2019
    malcolmg said:

    Roger said:

    interesting conversation between katy Adler and Laura Kuinsberg about the future of Brexit on radio 5. Adler seems to be very wary about Johnson and his chances of success. Kuinsberg is like an excited school girl where everything might be brilliant.

    Adler is showing herself to have a much deeper understanding of what's required and the people involved on both sides. Kuinsberg is just giddy.Talking about how enthusiasm might carry us through and quoting Johnson press releases

    Kuinsberg is crap
    I hadn't thought so but I do now. So short on insight. All morning Tories have been chanting Boris handouts .....very disappointing that Kuinsberg unlike Adler is just doing the same
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013

    If you want a referendum, you'll vote for the party who will give you one, regardless of which side the leadership will take on that referendum. This is exactly the calculation leavers had to make when choosing between conservatives and ukip in 2015. It worked out pretty well for them

    Oh sure, I get that. We are going to see spectacular levels of tactical voting if there is an autumn election, and "we will give you a referendum" will be our pitch locally, with MP having been on the referendum train from early on. Nationally though I just see trouble - that we're promising both a referendum and a new Brexit deal will be seen (rightly) as massively suspicious by remain voters. And a straight deception by leave voters.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 839
    Well there is an election, Barnwood Ward of Gloucester Council, Lib Dems 200/300 behind the Cons, Chance for Boris effect, if there is one, to make a difference and allow seat to be held. Another on the same Council just Labour and Cons last time, if Boris is the man the Cons couyld win.
    Then next week Brecon. The papers are scared the Lib Dems might win big there and throw a great big spanner in the works, hence shouts for an election now?.
    Will be an interesting 8 dayus, I do not know how it will turn out.
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