Hadn't realized that you'd left Labour and joined a party supporting remain.
Are you a Lib Dem now??
Do keep up! In Con-Lab marginals where there is no other choice with a chance, Labour is the realistic Remain party because of the guaranteed referendum. As I said, the problem for Remainers will be to work out where this is in fact the choice.
Nick, that simply isn't true. Jezbollah and his wazzock acolytes Burgon and Gardiner keep insisting that a Labour government will negotiate a new "jobs first Brexit" deal with the EU who apparently will drop their red lines like the four freedoms for Him. At which point we will put it to a confirmatory referendum.
Is your argument that we would campaign AGAINST our own deal for remain?
Labour are remain in opposition - we oppose "Tory Brexit" (aka the Withdrawal Agreement between the EU and UK), and we oppose no deal Brexit. But elect us into government and we will deliver Brexit. Remain in Opposition. Leave in Office. Its rampant bullshit mate, and thats why we're going to get a spanking if Boris discovers a brain cell and calls an election
If you want a referendum, you'll vote for the party who will give you one, regardless of which side the leadership will take on that referendum. This is exactly the calculation leavers had to make when choosing between conservatives and ukip in 2015. It worked out pretty well for them
Agreed. In any case, I suspect at the least the Labour leadership would stay neutral in such a referendum, but probably they would campaign for remain.
If Boris is serious about uniting the country he won’t be taking a leaf out of the book of Trump, Bibi and Salvini. I appreciate they are popular but they are not uniting figures are they?
Boris will need to do some things differently and he will need to reach out to your so called “die hard remainers” if he is going to be a true uniting figure.
For Tories the country is equivalent to the Conservative Party. They have no interest whatsoever in anything beyond that.
We shallow people have a right to be heard. Whatever Priti's politics, she is at least good-looking.
Has the media turned totally into Chat magazine now? Oh, and Laura Kuenssberg does ask sharp questions sometimes. Most of the rest are either lickspittles or after a headline.
Seek help , Specsavers for the former and some hearing aids for the latter.
Are you on the happy pills this morning Malcy?
Cause, I actually laughed at this particular curmudgeonly, misanthropic comment... :-)
Good morning, PB-rrs. And a fine bright moring it is, sitting here in Anglesey with a view over the bau towards the mountains of Gwynedd. Staying for a few days with in-laws.... wife's brother who met at Young Conservatives over 50 years ago and ben generally speaking loyal to their party ever since. Both were remainers, but while he is still of th same mind she holds that 'we mde the decision to leave and should'. Neither is particularly enamoured of Boris J, but both have a high opinion of Nigel Farage. It's going to be a difficult few days; got to avoid politics.
Relax and enjoy the wonders and beauty of North Wales, which I have been doing for over 54 years .
I notice, Mr G, that you don't avoid politics! However, Criccieth today, to a place of great family significance.
That's true and one of my uncle's had a holiday home in Criccieth
Interesting comparison between a Yougov poll when May became PM and one when Johnson was announced PM. May's figures were miles better. Something like 48% approval for May 32% approval for Johnson. Prof Curtice doesn't think it looks too good for Johnson! Hallelujah!
If you want a referendum, you'll vote for the party who will give you one, regardless of which side the leadership will take on that referendum. This is exactly the calculation leavers had to make when choosing between conservatives and ukip in 2015. It worked out pretty well for them
Oh sure, I get that. We are going to see spectacular levels of tactical voting if there is an autumn election, and "we will give you a referendum" will be our pitch locally, with MP having been on the referendum train from early on. Nationally though I just see trouble - that we're promising both a referendum and a new Brexit deal will be seen (rightly) as massively suspicious by remain voters. And a straight deception by leave voters.
I think that Johnson is Marmite enough to give Labour a good chance of holding on to most of the seats it holds outside Scotland. But I do not see how the new strategy helps them gain a single extra seat. Labour's only hope is that Johnson does find a way to light to BXP Betrayal fuse while also losing a few dozen seats to the LDs. Agreeing a deal with the EU would probably do that.
In the spirit of optimism I will make a prediction that will probably look foolish by Oct 31 (pessismist/realist in me says much sooner!).
We will get a completely different deal done with the EU and leave by Oct 31. It will be based on maintaining current arrangements during negotiations for an FTA. So during the next stage/transition/negotiations there are no changes to our trade or freedom of movement, we pay into the EU budget but lose representation. We maintain a right to exit the deal at a time our choosing if we dont agree a FTA. We will formally have left the EU, but in practice businesses and voters won't notice any difference during the transition.
Labour will oppose as a blind Tory brexit, but less than 15 tory MPs vote against and enough Labour leavers abstain to wave it through.
A right to exit at any time means no backstop. The EU will not agree to that. So maybe the solution is to return it to being NI only. The DUP will hate it, but if the Tories get a majority, who cares? The one spanner in the works is the B word - Betrayal. BINO is a gift to the BXP.
The Tories are in a bind.
There is no change in the backstop arrangements from the current situation - not a reason for the EU to block it. The DUP will be fine if it applies to whole of UK, indeed they seem to want Brexit but not the consequences - which is probably aligned to our new PM - and this offers it on an ongoing basis.
Brexit party is an issue, but politically think of the positives for leavers and the Tories. All the economic projections about disaster wont happen straight after leaving (as we wont have left in reality, just legally). Imagine the fun they can have with project fear, ridiculing experts and remoaners with no optimism, during a GE campaign where we have left safely. (Obviously the criticism of project fear isnt valid but it would be seen as valid by leavers).
Compared to the alternatives of:
somehow forcing through no deal with no mandate - Brexit party wouldnt be much of a threat but the economy tanking and obvious problems in delivering no deal would make a big tory loss very probable if the govt doesnt collapse before we have even left.
not achieving anything getting blocked by parliament - tolerable but Brexit party can easily exploit the Tories and promises to leave on time. Unlikely to be any unlocking of the parliamentary arithmetic following a GE in this scenario with another hung parliament.
changing existing WA - not going to happen sufficiently to get ERG on board
The problem with the WA is that it was always dependent on the good will of the EU. That they'll say 'Fine, you can go now, and someone else will volunteer to pay the 10 billion a year to make up the deficit', Do we feel lucky?
It was always going to be the case that the EU would offer a straight BINO or No-Deal choice. It’s also the case that the minute we leave the political institutions, the remaining EU will look to shaft the U.K. with every single piece of legislation they pass and every deal they sign.
Interesting comparison between a Yougov poll when May became PM and one when Johnson was announced PM. May's figures were miles better. Something like 48% approval for May 32% approval for Johnson. Prof Curtice doesn't think it looks too good for Johnson! Hallelujah!
I'd reserve judgement until next week, when he's appointed his team and got any immediate goodies onto the table. Then the by-election; hopefully a loss. The polls after that will tell us how big a honeymoon he gets.
As Cyclefree says, Boris Johnson has a thumping party mandate, he does not have one from the country. If he wants to get serious stuff done, sooner or later he is going to need to take the icy bath of a national election campaign. Best done soonest, I’d say. Otherwise, he’s just going to be drifting.
He has to win that election convincingly. The situation is volatile and so he might do so later. The prospects don't look good right now.
To be clear, I don’t think he has the nerve to call one and if he did I think he would find himself out of a job. So ineffectual drift it is.
So you think that in order to get serious stuff done he has to call an election soon which he will lose. Seems an ineffective way of getting things done to me.
As Cyclefree says, Boris Johnson has a thumping party mandate, he does not have one from the country. If he wants to get serious stuff done, sooner or later he is going to need to take the icy bath of a national election campaign. Best done soonest, I’d say. Otherwise, he’s just going to be drifting.
He has to win that election convincingly. The situation is volatile and so he might do so later. The prospects don't look good right now.
To be clear, I don’t think he has the nerve to call one and if he did I think he would find himself out of a job. So ineffectual drift it is.
So you think that in order to get serious stuff done he has to call an election soon which he will lose. Seems an ineffective way of getting things done to me.
To get serious stuff done, he's going to have to do something. All his options are odds against. This is the best of a bad bunch.
interesting conversation between katy Adler and Laura Kuinsberg about the future of Brexit on radio 5. Adler seems to be very wary about Johnson and his chances of success. Kuinsberg is like an excited school girl where everything might be brilliant.
Adler is showing herself to have a much deeper understanding of what's required and the people involved on both sides. Kuinsberg is just giddy.Talking about how enthusiasm might carry us through and quoting Johnson press releases
Kuinsberg is crap
She’s a dreadful journalist. But a pretty good propagandist.
interesting conversation between katy Adler and Laura Kuinsberg about the future of Brexit on radio 5. Adler seems to be very wary about Johnson and his chances of success. Kuinsberg is like an excited school girl where everything might be brilliant.
Adler is showing herself to have a much deeper understanding of what's required and the people involved on both sides. Kuinsberg is just giddy.Talking about how enthusiasm might carry us through and quoting Johnson press releases
Kuinsberg is crap
I hadn't thought so but I do now. So short on insight. All morning Tories have been chanting Boris handouts .....very disappointing that Kuinsberg unlike Adler is just doing the same
In the spirit of optimism I will make a prediction that will probably look foolish by Oct 31 (pessismist/realist in me says much sooner!).
We will get a completely different deal done with the EU and leave by Oct 31. It will be based on maintaining current arrangements during negotiations for an FTA. So during the next stage/transition/negotiations there are no changes to our trade or freedom of movement, we pay into the EU budget but lose representation. We maintain a right to exit the deal at a time our choosing if we dont agree a FTA. We will formally have left the EU, but in practice businesses and voters won't notice any difference during the transition.
Labour will oppose as a blind Tory brexit, but less than 15 tory MPs vote against and enough Labour leavers abstain to wave it through.
We could have achieved all that by simply announcing we were no longer going to send MEPs and commissioners. Individuals could have done their own version by not bothering to vote in EU elections.
Exiting the EU is different to deciding our ongoing relations with the EU. This exits the EU with a view to a FTA agreement in the future. Your suggestion does not do the same. I am not supporting the idea, I am saying it is the most likely approach by a Boris govt and has a plausible chance of happening, perhaps even on time.
Those who say the EU will not renegotiate the WA are wrong, if you take out our red lines, many more simple agreements would be in reach.
May had boxed herself into a position where the EU couldnt go any further to help her, once our PM steps out of the box, more options are available, some of which he may be able to sell to both ERG and remain tories.
Johnson’s Eric Morecambe pose on the steps of Downing Street is just embarrassing.
To any objective observer, he looks like a muppet.
The entire international community is laughing behind their hands. Some openly.
So. What.
I think Johnson is a muppet too, a crappy one at that, but is our self worth defined by other countries? Are you to tell me that factors beyond who the head of government is are irrelevant ? BoJo or no BoJo other nations must treat us as they find as that's geopolitics. And if a random person would think less of a country because of who the leader is what a bunch of cocks .
I'm awfully pessimistic on Johnson, I think hes bullshitting and could lead us to disaster, but my gods the immediate jump to cringing embarrassment at what the world thinks is just lame. Who is PM is a factor in relations, but cringing in shame is just silly.
If Johnson needs to move Hunt from the FO, then move him to No.11. It would be a revelation to see someone who’s actually run a business put in change of the finances.
If not Hunt then Liz Truss, someone committed to simplifying and lowering taxes.
interesting conversation between katy Adler and Laura Kuinsberg about the future of Brexit on radio 5. Adler seems to be very wary about Johnson and his chances of success. Kuinsberg is like an excited school girl where everything might be brilliant.
Adler is showing herself to have a much deeper understanding of what's required and the people involved on both sides. Kuinsberg is just giddy.Talking about how enthusiasm might carry us through and quoting Johnson press releases
Kuinsberg is crap
She’s a dreadful journalist. But a pretty good propagandist.
For sure Stuart, and BBC in Scotland is even worse. Where is Ruthie, are they keeping her locked up in the tower till Boris decides her fate. She must be miffed that Ross is going to be her overlord soon.
Amusingly, on the Betfair next Conservative leader market, no one is under 10/1 at present. Obviously it's early days and the market is not really trading yet.
If Boris leaves Hunt, Hammond, Gauke, Stewart on the back benches, which is the case, then thats a very core basis of a dangerous group.
Wont Hunt be loyal? His best bet is an v early leadership election where seen as safe pair of hands, now known to the membership, who can sort out Boris's mess?
The others are either beyond all that and probably wont even stand again or like Rory eying the medium term future of Cons when all this madness is over.
1. Appoint the ERG to the ministry. 2. Sell them on May’s deal or perpetual BINO 3. Get out by October 31.
It’s that simple.
Most of the “Remainers” are all talk and no trousers so it’s easier to screw then over than the moonbats.
If he fails at (2) he will blame the haters and wreckers in Parliament and go for an election.
Judging by Telegraph his plan is to have absolutely no legislation so that Commons has nothing to cause trouble with and we just leave.
Doesn't sound it will work to me.
Could be a cunning plan to set up expectations very low spinning nonsense like not sitting parliament or introducing legislation, deliver averagely (by behaving more consensually and pragmatically) and look like a success with average.
interesting conversation between katy Adler and Laura Kuinsberg about the future of Brexit on radio 5. Adler seems to be very wary about Johnson and his chances of success. Kuinsberg is like an excited school girl where everything might be brilliant.
Adler is showing herself to have a much deeper understanding of what's required and the people involved on both sides. Kuinsberg is just giddy.Talking about how enthusiasm might carry us through and quoting Johnson press releases
Kuinsberg is crap
I hadn't thought so but I do now. So short on insight. All morning Tories have been chanting Boris handouts .....very disappointing that Kuinsberg unlike Adler is just doing the same
Yeah. Plus Kuensberg...Kuensberg...something about that name, eh Rog?
Well there is an election, Barnwood Ward of Gloucester Council, Lib Dems 200/300 behind the Cons, Chance for Boris effect, if there is one, to make a difference and allow seat to be held. Another on the same Council just Labour and Cons last time, if Boris is the man the Cons couyld win. Then next week Brecon. The papers are scared the Lib Dems might win big there and throw a great big spanner in the works, hence shouts for an election now?. Will be an interesting 8 dayus, I do not know how it will turn out.
Barnwood also has a Brexit Party candidate this Thursday, and Brexit came a clear top in the Gloucester City Euro elections with 38% . But of course since then, the LibDems have surged and the Brexit Party vote has slumped
So will the Brexiteers carry on demonstrating their electoral incompetence - or have they finally discovered that there's more to contesting real elections than rabble-rousing and bullying? Will Jo Swinson get a bounce or a reverse bounce? Will Johnson prove as toxic in Gloucester as he is nationally, or will his publicity galvanise Tory positivism? Or will the hottest day of the year create record-breaking electoral apathy?
Johnson’s Eric Morecambe pose on the steps of Downing Street is just embarrassing.
To any objective observer, he looks like a muppet.
The entire international community is laughing behind their hands. Some openly.
Although I yield to no one in my estimation of Johnson as a complete and utter tosser, nevertheless there are plenty of world leaders who look or act so as to make them seem absurd.
1. If Boris goes for an autumn GE and wins a majority, then the dynamic with the EU completely changes.
2. If Boris goes for an autumn GE and wins a majority big enough to render the crazier members of the ERG obsolete, then he'd turn his back on them.
For the sake of the country, we almost need Boris to win a decent-sized majority so that the DUP, ERG and Brexit Party are no longer involved in the deal process.
Trouble is, I'm not sure he can win a big enough majority.
If Johnson needs to move Hunt from the FO, then move him to No.11. It would be a revelation to see someone who’s actually run a business put in change of the finances.
If not Hunt then Liz Truss, someone committed to simplifying and lowering taxes.
Does running a business really make you particularly suited to being Chancellor? I have run a small business, not sure I would be much use or know where to start!
Cabinet reshuffles are weird in how they expect our MPs to seamlessly switch to different areas of expertise, almost instantly. Not sure how that could be solved, possibly a requirement for cabinet ministers to have served at least 2 years on the relevant select committee might improve the efficiency of govt?
In the spirit of optimism I will make a prediction that will probably look foolish by Oct 31 (pessismist/realist in me says much sooner!).
We will get a completely different deal done with the EU and leave by Oct 31. It will be based on maintaining current arrangements during negotiations for an FTA. So during the next stage/transition/negotiations there are no changes to our trade or freedom of movement, we pay into the EU budget but lose representation. We maintain a right to exit the deal at a time our choosing if we dont agree a FTA. We will formally have left the EU, but in practice businesses and voters won't notice any difference during the transition.
Labour will oppose as a blind Tory brexit, but less than 15 tory MPs vote against and enough Labour leavers abstain to wave it through.
We could have achieved all that by simply announcing we were no longer going to send MEPs and commissioners. Individuals could have done their own version by not bothering to vote in EU elections.
Exiting the EU is different to deciding our ongoing relations with the EU. This exits the EU with a view to a FTA agreement in the future. Your suggestion does not do the same. I am not supporting the idea, I am saying it is the most likely approach by a Boris govt and has a plausible chance of happening, perhaps even on time.
Those who say the EU will not renegotiate the WA are wrong, if you take out our red lines, many more simple agreements would be in reach.
May had boxed herself into a position where the EU couldnt go any further to help her, once our PM steps out of the box, more options are available, some of which he may be able to sell to both ERG and remain tories.
By ruling out free movement of labour and any kind of ECJ jurisdiction May broke her own bat before going into negotiations. In hindsight she was lucky to get the WA.
1. If Boris goes for an autumn GE and wins a majority, then the dynamic with the EU completely changes.
2. If Boris goes for an autumn GE and wins a majority big enough to render the crazier members of the ERG obsolete, then he'd turn his back on them.
For the sake of the country, we almost need Boris to win a decent-sized majority so that the DUP, ERG and Brexit Party are no longer involved in the deal process.
Trouble is, I'm not sure he can win a big enough majority.
Surely the big questions are, what would be in the Tory manifesto and who would stand on it?
Interesting comparison between a Yougov poll when May became PM and one when Johnson was announced PM. May's figures were miles better. Something like 48% approval for May 32% approval for Johnson. Prof Curtice doesn't think it looks too good for Johnson! Hallelujah!
I'd reserve judgement until next week, when he's appointed his team and got any immediate goodies onto the table. Then the by-election; hopefully a loss. The polls after that will tell us how big a honeymoon he gets.
Good article, I doubt he'll go to the country though unless all other means are exhausted.
More than anything else he might lose if he does and he'll be the shortest reigning pm ever. He doesnt want to risk that.
Arguably, he only needs to cling on until the weekend to beat Lord Bath. But I think he's rarely considered a "real" PM as he was asked to form an administration, but couldn't get people to serve. He did get the seals of office, though.
More realistically, he needs to get to the end of November to beat Canning. Peel had a one month term, but it was always as caretaker, and he did later come back as main man. Lord Rockingham lasted barely three months before dying of flu, but it was his second term.
Interesting. The offer of Deputy PM should be made to keep Hunt within the tent. As Clegg found out it amounts to very little on its own but would allow Hunt to save face. i.e. with superficial status but little practical influence or role, especially over the key decisions on Brexit. Similar to the role Prescott occupied under Blair in helping keeping a wing of the party on board but without really deflecting from the New Labour agenda and without the huge additional departmental portfolio of Environment, Transport and the Regions that Prescott was also given.
Hunt deserves very little other than an offer out of political convenience. Once it went to the final ballot it was entirely obvious that Johnson was going to win, and at that point there was some opportunity for the Conservative Party to pull together. Instead Hunt seemed content to take up the mantle of Rory Stewart in launching not so coded attacks designed to compromise Johnson and in doing so has I think diminished the initial boost in popularity that any incoming PM can expect.
In the spirit of optimism I will make a prediction that will probably look foolish by Oct 31 (pessismist/realist in me says much sooner!).
We will get a completely different deal done with the EU and leave by Oct 31. It will be based on maintaining current arrangements during negotiations for an FTA. So during the next stage/transition/negotiations there are no changes to our trade or freedom of movement, we pay into the EU budget but lose representation. We maintain a right to exit the deal at a time our choosing if we dont agree a FTA. We will formally have left the EU, but in practice businesses and voters won't notice any difference during the transition.
Labour will oppose as a blind Tory brexit, but less than 15 tory MPs vote against and enough Labour leavers abstain to wave it through.
We could have achieved all that by simply announcing we were no longer going to send MEPs and commissioners. Individuals could have done their own version by not bothering to vote in EU elections.
Exiting the EU is different to deciding our ongoing relations with the EU. This exits the EU with a view to a FTA agreement in the future. Your suggestion does not do the same. I am not supporting the idea, I am saying it is the most likely approach by a Boris govt and has a plausible chance of happening, perhaps even on time.
Those who say the EU will not renegotiate the WA are wrong, if you take out our red lines, many more simple agreements would be in reach.
May had boxed herself into a position where the EU couldnt go any further to help her, once our PM steps out of the box, more options are available, some of which he may be able to sell to both ERG and remain tories.
By ruling out free movement of labour and any kind of ECJ jurisdiction May broke her own bat before going into negotiations. In hindsight she was lucky to get the WA.
The negotiation of the WA was actually a good achievement by May. It became completely worthless because of not just her failure to sell it, but actively turning people away with her divisive speeches and rhetoric.
In the spirit of optimism I will make a prediction that will probably look foolish by Oct 31 (pessismist/realist in me says much sooner!).
We will get a completely different deal done with the EU and leave by Oct 31. It will be based on maintaining current arrangements during negotiations for an FTA. So during the next stage/transition/negotiations there are no changes to our trade or freedom of movement, we pay into the EU budget but lose representation. We maintain a right to exit the deal at a time our choosing if we dont agree a FTA. We will formally have left the EU, but in practice businesses and voters won't notice any difference during the transition.
Labour will oppose as a blind Tory brexit, but less than 15 tory MPs vote against and enough Labour leavers abstain to wave it through.
We could have achieved all that by simply announcing we were no longer going to send MEPs and commissioners. Individuals could have done their own version by not bothering to vote in EU elections.
Exiting the EU is different to deciding our ongoing relations with the EU. This exits the EU with a view to a FTA agreement in the future. Your suggestion does not do the same. I am not supporting the idea, I am saying it is the most likely approach by a Boris govt and has a plausible chance of happening, perhaps even on time.
Those who say the EU will not renegotiate the WA are wrong, if you take out our red lines, many more simple agreements would be in reach.
May had boxed herself into a position where the EU couldnt go any further to help her, once our PM steps out of the box, more options are available, some of which he may be able to sell to both ERG and remain tories.
By ruling out free movement of labour and any kind of ECJ jurisdiction May broke her own bat before going into negotiations. In hindsight she was lucky to get the WA.
Given the campaign that Leave had fought, Theresa May's red lines were simply a matter of honouring the (vile) spirit of the vote. Any Leavers complaining about them are idiots, hypocrites or both.
Priti Patel if she is to become Home Secretary will surely be Johnson's achilles heel. She will have the capacity to galvanise a progressive opposition to Johnson's Tories like no other.
According to commentators this morning BJ's plan is to make India his prime target of trade and to that end he thinks Patel is the answer. So perhaps Foreign Secretary.
I say this in all seriousness, but this trend to say BJ instead of BoJo or Bozzy is wrong. BJ immediately pops something completely different into my head, so stop it.
Interesting comparison between a Yougov poll when May became PM and one when Johnson was announced PM. May's figures were miles better. Something like 48% approval for May 32% approval for Johnson. Prof Curtice doesn't think it looks too good for Johnson! Hallelujah!
I'd reserve judgement until next week, when he's appointed his team and got any immediate goodies onto the table. Then the by-election; hopefully a loss. The polls after that will tell us how big a honeymoon he gets.
31% approve as of yesterday 58% disapprove. It doesn't look good
Especially as - in the absence of a political track record with clearly held principles and beliefs on display - everyone is projecting their own impression of what he will or wont do onto Bozo. Yet another similarity with Mrs May.
Even HY cannot decide so is projecting two contradictory strategies into him at the same time.
Johnson’s Eric Morecambe pose on the steps of Downing Street is just embarrassing.
To any objective observer, he looks like a muppet.
The entire international community is laughing behind their hands. Some openly.
Although I yield to no one in my estimation of Johnson as a complete and utter tosser, nevertheless there are plenty of world leaders who look or act so as to make them seem absurd.
Indeed. But typically we’ve eschewed such banana republic displays.
Dignity is one of the attributes of leadership, and is an element of soft power. Johnson is a jester, not a prince.
In the spirit of optimism I will make a prediction that will probably look foolish by Oct 31 (pessismist/realist in me says much sooner!).
We will get a completely different deal done with the EU and leave by Oct 31. It will be based on maintaining current arrangements during negotiations for an FTA. So during the next stage/transition/negotiations there are no changes to our trade or freedom of movement, we pay into the EU budget but lose representation. We maintain a right to exit the deal at a time our choosing if we dont agree a FTA. We will formally have left the EU, but in practice businesses and voters won't notice any difference during the transition.
Labour will oppose as a blind Tory brexit, but less than 15 tory MPs vote against and enough Labour leavers abstain to wave it through.
We could have achieved all that by simply announcing we were no longer going to send MEPs and commissioners. Individuals could have done their own version by not bothering to vote in EU elections.
Exiting the EU is different to deciding our ongoing relations with the EU. This exits the EU with a view to a FTA agreement in the future. Your suggestion does not do the same. I am not supporting the idea, I am saying it is the most likely approach by a Boris govt and has a plausible chance of happening, perhaps even on time.
Those who say the EU will not renegotiate the WA are wrong, if you take out our red lines, many more simple agreements would be in reach.
May had boxed herself into a position where the EU couldnt go any further to help her, once our PM steps out of the box, more options are available, some of which he may be able to sell to both ERG and remain tories.
By ruling out free movement of labour and any kind of ECJ jurisdiction May broke her own bat before going into negotiations. In hindsight she was lucky to get the WA.
Vote Leave broke those bats. Those were the Vote Leave campaign pledges that had to be honoured, some of us did warn at the time that Vote Leave’s campaign promises were undeliverable but that’s what you voted for, to crap all over one of Mrs Thatcher’s finest achievements.
That assumes that the current one will ever be replaced. One can easily imagine the Corbynites putting him in a glass case to rule over them for eternity.
Priti Patel if she is to become Home Secretary will surely be Johnson's achilles heel. She will have the capacity to galvanise a progressive opposition to Johnson's Tories like no other.
According to commentators this morning BJ's plan is to make India his prime target of trade and to that end he thinks Patel is the answer. So perhaps Foreign Secretary.
I say this in all seriousness, but this trend to say BJ instead of BoJo or Bozzy is wrong. BJ immediately pops something completely different into my head, so stop it.
....but "pops something completely different into my head" ... makes it worse!
Johnson’s Eric Morecambe pose on the steps of Downing Street is just embarrassing.
To any objective observer, he looks like a muppet.
The entire international community is laughing behind their hands. Some openly.
Although I yield to no one in my estimation of Johnson as a complete and utter tosser, nevertheless there are plenty of world leaders who look or act so as to make them seem absurd.
Indeed. But typically we’ve eschewed such banana republic displays.
Dignity is one of the attributes of leadership, and is an element of soft power. Johnson is a jester, not a prince.
If Boris is serious about uniting the country he won’t be taking a leaf out of the book of Trump, Bibi and Salvini. I appreciate they are popular but they are not uniting figures are they?
Boris will need to do some things differently and he will need to reach out to your so called “die hard remainers” if he is going to be a true uniting figure.
Impossible, diehard Remainers refused to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement and oppose No Deal and want to stop Brexit, they are the enemy if Boris wishes to deliver Brexit and win the next general election
1. If Boris goes for an autumn GE and wins a majority, then the dynamic with the EU completely changes.
2. If Boris goes for an autumn GE and wins a majority big enough to render the crazier members of the ERG obsolete, then he'd turn his back on them.
For the sake of the country, we almost need Boris to win a decent-sized majority so that the DUP, ERG and Brexit Party are no longer involved in the deal process.
Trouble is, I'm not sure he can win a big enough majority.
One for the historians. If rumours are to be believed Johnson is going to bring back into the cabinet 2 maybe 3 people who have been sacked or resigned in disgrace in the current Parliament. When was the last time this happened?
It’s an interesting point, when leaving in disgrace doesn’t seem to mean anything anymore. Williamson for example, if he did what he was sacked for just a few months ago...
Eden fought an election on 26 May 1955, at which he increased the Conservative majority from seventeen to sixty.
The first television election. One called by a Tory PM expecting to cash in Big from a civil war in the opposition party, who instead to everyone’s surprise only cashed in small.
I was just over a year too young to vote in that election; the age requirement has changed since of course. My personal recollection is that many voters thought that calling it was rather pointless. Our ideas about the mandate politicians ought have from voters have changed considerably since. After all it was very a long time ago. I'd have thought that a majority of 60 was a reasonable return for the risk and the effort. Pity it all went wrong so soon after!
That assumes that the current one will ever be replaced. One can easily imagine the Corbynites putting him in a glass case to rule over them for eternity.
I believe Kim Il-sung is still the eternal leader of North Korea despite having died in 1994.
If Johnson needs to move Hunt from the FO, then move him to No.11. It would be a revelation to see someone who’s actually run a business put in change of the finances.
If not Hunt then Liz Truss, someone committed to simplifying and lowering taxes.
Does running a business really make you particularly suited to being Chancellor? I have run a small business, not sure I would be much use or know where to start!
Cabinet reshuffles are weird in how they expect our MPs to seamlessly switch to different areas of expertise, almost instantly. Not sure how that could be solved, possibly a requirement for cabinet ministers to have served at least 2 years on the relevant select committee might improve the efficiency of govt?
Hunt built up a small business into a reasonably large one, he will be more aware than most of how complicated the tax and compliance regime has become over the years, and how many seemingly innocuous changes have resulted in major administrative burdens on SMEs.
(I’ve run a very small business in the U.K., and now do so abroad).
I agree about the areas of expertise, it makes little sense to move a minister from education to defence to environment - those who move around and can’t get up to speed very quickly are much more likely to be captured by the civil service.
Interesting comparison between a Yougov poll when May became PM and one when Johnson was announced PM. May's figures were miles better. Something like 48% approval for May 32% approval for Johnson. Prof Curtice doesn't think it looks too good for Johnson! Hallelujah!
Yet Boris has higher favourables than Corbyn, Farage and Swinson in the same poll.
Though Swinson has lower negatives too as less well known
If Boris is serious about uniting the country he won’t be taking a leaf out of the book of Trump, Bibi and Salvini. I appreciate they are popular but they are not uniting figures are they?
Boris will need to do some things differently and he will need to reach out to your so called “die hard remainers” if he is going to be a true uniting figure.
Impossible, diehard Remainers refused to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement and oppose No Deal and want to stop Brexit, they are the enemy if Boris wishes to deliver Brexit and win
Does that mean BJ is lying when he says he's going to unite the country? I can barely credit such a thing!
One for the historians. If rumours are to be believed Johnson is going to bring back into the cabinet 2 maybe 3 people who have been sacked or resigned in disgrace in the current Parliament. When was the last time this happened?
It’s an interesting point, when leaving in disgrace doesn’t seem to mean anything anymore. Williamson for example, if he did what he was sacked for just a few months ago...
If Boris is serious about uniting the country he won’t be taking a leaf out of the book of Trump, Bibi and Salvini. I appreciate they are popular but they are not uniting figures are they?
Boris will need to do some things differently and he will need to reach out to your so called “die hard remainers” if he is going to be a true uniting figure.
Impossible, diehard Remainers refused to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement and oppose No Deal and want to stop Brexit, they are the enemy if Boris wishes to deliver Brexit and win
Does that mean BJ is lying when he says he's going to unite the country? I can barely credit such a thing!
That man cannot unite his own household, let alone a political party or a country.
The problem with the WA is that it was always dependent on the good will of the EU. That they'll say 'Fine, you can go now, and someone else will volunteer to pay the 10 billion a year to make up the deficit', Do we feel lucky?
It was always going to be the case that the EU would offer a straight BINO or No-Deal choice. It’s also the case that the minute we leave the political institutions, the remaining EU will look to shaft the U.K. with every single piece of legislation they pass and every deal they sign.
It won't be a deliberate shafting. We're not that important to them. It is true that not showing up to the meetings where the decisions are made and not having a vote -aka Out of the Political Institutions - DOES mean our interests will be ignored.
Priti Patel if she is to become Home Secretary will surely be Johnson's achilles heel. She will have the capacity to galvanise a progressive opposition to Johnson's Tories like no other.
According to commentators this morning BJ's plan is to make India his prime target of trade and to that end he thinks Patel is the answer. So perhaps Foreign Secretary.
I say this in all seriousness, but this trend to say BJ instead of BoJo or Bozzy is wrong. BJ immediately pops something completely different into my head, so stop it.
If Boris is serious about uniting the country he won’t be taking a leaf out of the book of Trump, Bibi and Salvini. I appreciate they are popular but they are not uniting figures are they?
Boris will need to do some things differently and he will need to reach out to your so called “die hard remainers” if he is going to be a true uniting figure.
Impossible, diehard Remainers refused to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement and oppose No Deal and want to stop Brexit, they are the enemy if Boris wishes to deliver Brexit and win the next general election
Frankly, the sooner you accept that you too are a diehard Remainer the better for everyone. You voted Remain, you want to Remain and hence you are the enemy. Harsh on yourself maybe, but them's the facts.
If Boris is serious about uniting the country he won’t be taking a leaf out of the book of Trump, Bibi and Salvini. I appreciate they are popular but they are not uniting figures are they?
Boris will need to do some things differently and he will need to reach out to your so called “die hard remainers” if he is going to be a true uniting figure.
Impossible, diehard Remainers refused to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement and oppose No Deal and want to stop Brexit, they are the enemy if Boris wishes to deliver Brexit and win the next general election
So, Remainers are “the enemy”? You do realise that you are talking about one third of your party’s supporters? Or have you already jumped ship to Farage’s company?
1. If Boris goes for an autumn GE and wins a majority, then the dynamic with the EU completely changes.
2. If Boris goes for an autumn GE and wins a majority big enough to render the crazier members of the ERG obsolete, then he'd turn his back on them.
For the sake of the country, we almost need Boris to win a decent-sized majority so that the DUP, ERG and Brexit Party are no longer involved in the deal process.
Trouble is, I'm not sure he can win a big enough majority.
With the extra twist that a quickie election would be against the background of Serious No Deal Prep. Good luck keeping the Bring Me Sunshine act going, PM.
If Boris is serious about uniting the country he won’t be taking a leaf out of the book of Trump, Bibi and Salvini. I appreciate they are popular but they are not uniting figures are they?
Boris will need to do some things differently and he will need to reach out to your so called “die hard remainers” if he is going to be a true uniting figure.
Impossible, diehard Remainers refused to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement and oppose No Deal and want to stop Brexit, they are the enemy if Boris wishes to deliver Brexit and win the next general election
So, Remainers are “the enemy”? You do realise that you are talking about one third of your party’s supporters? Or have you already jumped ship to Farage’s company?
@HYUFD is a remainer but in the company of Leavers so has to be the one that tries extra hard by pretending he really really hates remainers. Thing is, he is not very good at the pretence. We all know he is a remainer and the rest is just bluster.
If Boris is serious about uniting the country he won’t be taking a leaf out of the book of Trump, Bibi and Salvini. I appreciate they are popular but they are not uniting figures are they?
Boris will need to do some things differently and he will need to reach out to your so called “die hard remainers” if he is going to be a true uniting figure.
Impossible, diehard Remainers refused to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement and oppose No Deal and want to stop Brexit, they are the enemy if Boris wishes to deliver Brexit and win the next general election
Frankly, the sooner you accept that you too are a diehard Remainer the better for everyone. You voted Remain, you want to Remain and hence you are the enemy. Harsh on yourself maybe, but them's the facts.
Worse than that he’s a Lib Dem.
I mean in the 2001 Tory leadership contest he voted for Ken Clarke the Pro EU/Euro guy and in 2005 he voted for David Davis the civil liberties guy.
If Boris is serious about uniting the country he won’t be taking a leaf out of the book of Trump, Bibi and Salvini. I appreciate they are popular but they are not uniting figures are they?
Boris will need to do some things differently and he will need to reach out to your so called “die hard remainers” if he is going to be a true uniting figure.
Impossible, diehard Remainers refused to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement and oppose No Deal and want to stop Brexit, they are the enemy if Boris wishes to deliver Brexit and win the next general election
So, Remainers are “the enemy”? You do realise that you are talking about one third of your party’s supporters? Or have you already jumped ship to Farage’s company?
Voting to remain does not make you a ‘remainer’, thinking that the deal is poor doesn’t make you a ‘remainer’. Wanting to undo the referendum result and being unwilling to accept any kind of agreement that involves us leaving the EU makes you a ‘remainer’.
That assumes that the current one will ever be replaced. One can easily imagine the Corbynites putting him in a glass case to rule over them for eternity.
Corbyn will be Labour leader until the far-left is confident it has someone else who can win an election to replace him. That means he is likely to be Labour leader for many years to come.
1. If Boris goes for an autumn GE and wins a majority, then the dynamic with the EU completely changes.
2. If Boris goes for an autumn GE and wins a majority big enough to render the crazier members of the ERG obsolete, then he'd turn his back on them.
For the sake of the country, we almost need Boris to win a decent-sized majority so that the DUP, ERG and Brexit Party are no longer involved in the deal process.
Trouble is, I'm not sure he can win a big enough majority.
There is still at this point relatively little incentive for the EU to do anything to change their position, even though the UK leaving without our hands tied in the knot they constructed is the outcome they fear.
For three years, they were dealing with a PM who effectively asked for nothing and who from the outset they knew would settle for whatever gruel they deigned to offer up rather than walk away.
Now they are dealing with a PM who is prepared to walk away (until in practice we have left, when I am sure negotiations would resume) but who in all likelihood is not going to be allowed to do so. Their only fear in continuing to call the UK's bluff is that it would precipitate a GE after which the parties supporting Brexit would emerge strengthened.
If Boris is serious about uniting the country he won’t be taking a leaf out of the book of Trump, Bibi and Salvini. I appreciate they are popular but they are not uniting figures are they?
Boris will need to do some things differently and he will need to reach out to your so called “die hard remainers” if he is going to be a true uniting figure.
Impossible, diehard Remainers refused to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement and oppose No Deal and want to stop Brexit, they are the enemy if Boris wishes to deliver Brexit and win the next general election
Frankly, the sooner you accept that you too are a diehard Remainer the better for everyone. You voted Remain, you want to Remain and hence you are the enemy. Harsh on yourself maybe, but them's the facts.
Worse than that he’s a Lib Dem.
I mean in the 2001 Tory leadership contest he voted for Ken Clarke the Pro EU/Euro guy and in 2005 he voted for David Davis the civil liberties guy.
Good article, very strong on what most would expect from previous experience. But from my perspective there is one elephant in the room that many are ignoring. The Tories, LibDems and SNP are skint.
Mick Davis, is paying day to day expenses for CCHQ while there are consistent rumours about difficulties even paying the rent for the building. Will the traditional support be willing to donate to the Tories under Johnson or will the money flow into the BP coffers.
The LibDems, with only 12 MP's and a new leader with a negative recognition problem. Would they have big money flooding in from their traditional sources as they did under Ashdown, Kennedy and Clegg?
The SNP have a very large operation, which when the money flowed in from the farmers and fisher communities in the North East of Scotland was budgeted for. Unfortunately, upsetting the electorate in those areas (non and very delayed payment of EU subsidies, having an anti Brexit policy) and turning them back to the blues.
The Labour Party on the other hand has a pretty big war chest waiting, estimated at over £70 million and a membership bigger than the other parties combined but would that be large enough to counter the negative publicity and media attacks.
These are not normal times, as if they ever were in the past.
Comments
To any objective observer, he looks like a muppet.
The entire international community is laughing behind their hands. Some openly.
Hopi Sen on Ministerial appointments.
1. Appoint the ERG to the ministry.
2. Sell them on May’s deal or perpetual BINO
3. Get out by October 31.
It’s that simple.
Most of the “Remainers” are all talk and no trousers so it’s easier to screw then over than the moonbats.
If he fails at (2) he will blame the haters and wreckers in Parliament and go for an election.
Doesn't sound it will work to me.
Cause, I actually laughed at this particular curmudgeonly, misanthropic comment... :-)
Funnily enough in my neck of the woods the new council leader did make one of the other candidates deputy.
But hunt is forcing Boris's hand - hes going to backbenches. I was watching it around 1240 - I've never seen such frequent flashes but it was eerily quiet
Brexit party is an issue, but politically think of the positives for leavers and the Tories. All the economic projections about disaster wont happen straight after leaving (as we wont have left in reality, just legally). Imagine the fun they can have with project fear, ridiculing experts and remoaners with no optimism, during a GE campaign where we have left safely. (Obviously the criticism of project fear isnt valid but it would be seen as valid by leavers).
Compared to the alternatives of:
somehow forcing through no deal with no mandate - Brexit party wouldnt be much of a threat but the economy tanking and obvious problems in delivering no deal would make a big tory loss very probable if the govt doesnt collapse before we have even left.
not achieving anything getting blocked by parliament - tolerable but Brexit party can easily exploit the Tories and promises to leave on time. Unlikely to be any unlocking of the parliamentary arithmetic following a GE in this scenario with another hung parliament.
changing existing WA - not going to happen sufficiently to get ERG on board
Hunt already lining up for the next leadership contest
Those who say the EU will not renegotiate the WA are wrong, if you take out our red lines, many more simple agreements would be in reach.
May had boxed herself into a position where the EU couldnt go any further to help her, once our PM steps out of the box, more options are available, some of which he may be able to sell to both ERG and remain tories.
I think Johnson is a muppet too, a crappy one at that, but is our self worth defined by other countries? Are you to tell me that factors beyond who the head of government is are irrelevant ? BoJo or no BoJo other nations must treat us as they find as that's geopolitics. And if a random person would think less of a country because of who the leader is what a bunch of cocks .
I'm awfully pessimistic on Johnson, I think hes bullshitting and could lead us to disaster, but my gods the immediate jump to cringing embarrassment at what the world thinks is just lame. Who is PM is a factor in relations, but cringing in shame is just silly.
If not Hunt then Liz Truss, someone committed to simplifying and lowering taxes.
She must be miffed that Ross is going to be her overlord soon.
The others are either beyond all that and probably wont even stand again or like Rory eying the medium term future of Cons when all this madness is over.
So will the Brexiteers carry on demonstrating their electoral incompetence - or have they finally discovered that there's more to contesting real elections than rabble-rousing and bullying? Will Jo Swinson get a bounce or a reverse bounce? Will Johnson prove as toxic in Gloucester as he is nationally, or will his publicity galvanise Tory positivism? Or will the hottest day of the year create record-breaking electoral apathy?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DrsVhzbLzU
2. If Boris goes for an autumn GE and wins a majority big enough to render the crazier members of the ERG obsolete, then he'd turn his back on them.
For the sake of the country, we almost need Boris to win a decent-sized majority so that the DUP, ERG and Brexit Party are no longer involved in the deal process.
Trouble is, I'm not sure he can win a big enough majority.
If there was a chance of something awful coming up today, or something awful comes up this morning, the handover would probably be postponed.
Cabinet reshuffles are weird in how they expect our MPs to seamlessly switch to different areas of expertise, almost instantly. Not sure how that could be solved, possibly a requirement for cabinet ministers to have served at least 2 years on the relevant select committee might improve the efficiency of govt?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_(cat)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_fourfm
31% approve as of yesterday 58% disapprove. It doesn't look good
More realistically, he needs to get to the end of November to beat Canning. Peel had a one month term, but it was always as caretaker, and he did later come back as main man. Lord Rockingham lasted barely three months before dying of flu, but it was his second term.
Hunt deserves very little other than an offer out of political convenience. Once it went to the final ballot it was entirely obvious that Johnson was going to win, and at that point there was some opportunity for the Conservative Party to pull together. Instead Hunt seemed content to take up the mantle of Rory Stewart in launching not so coded attacks designed to compromise Johnson and in doing so has I think diminished the initial boost in popularity that any incoming PM can expect.
Even HY cannot decide so is projecting two contradictory strategies into him at the same time.
Dignity is one of the attributes of leadership, and is an element of soft power. Johnson is a jester, not a prince.
https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/722391453599723520?s=21
Woman 10/11
Man 10/11
Lib Dem media management is appalling.
Tragically appalling.
The correct thing to do would have been to delay the Swinson announcement until the Monday before the by-election.
... makes it worse!
I wonder what title Corbyn will have?
(I’ve run a very small business in the U.K., and now do so abroad).
I agree about the areas of expertise, it makes little sense to move a minister from education to defence to environment - those who move around and can’t get up to speed very quickly are much more likely to be captured by the civil service.
Though Swinson has lower negatives too as less well known
Con 11/10
Lab 7/4
Bxp 17/2
LD 16/1
Any other party 500/1
But, hey, that's what Leavers voted for
Happy Boris Day.
Wonder if HMQ is looking forward to kissing Boris's hand today? :^O
I mean in the 2001 Tory leadership contest he voted for Ken Clarke the Pro EU/Euro guy and in 2005 he voted for David Davis the civil liberties guy.
And yes. They are the ‘enemy’.
https://twitter.com/PGMcNamara/status/1153929273859858433
For three years, they were dealing with a PM who effectively asked for nothing and who from the outset they knew would settle for whatever gruel they deigned to offer up rather than walk away.
Now they are dealing with a PM who is prepared to walk away (until in practice we have left, when I am sure negotiations would resume) but who in all likelihood is not going to be allowed to do so. Their only fear in continuing to call the UK's bluff is that it would precipitate a GE after which the parties supporting Brexit would emerge strengthened.
Mick Davis, is paying day to day expenses for CCHQ while there are consistent rumours about difficulties even paying the rent for the building. Will the traditional support be willing to donate to the Tories under Johnson or will the money flow into the BP coffers.
The LibDems, with only 12 MP's and a new leader with a negative recognition problem. Would they have big money flooding in from their traditional sources as they did under Ashdown, Kennedy and Clegg?
The SNP have a very large operation, which when the money flowed in from the farmers and fisher communities in the North East of Scotland was budgeted for. Unfortunately, upsetting the electorate in those areas (non and very delayed payment of EU subsidies, having an anti Brexit policy) and turning them back to the blues.
The Labour Party on the other hand has a pretty big war chest waiting, estimated at over £70 million and a membership bigger than the other parties combined but would that be large enough to counter the negative publicity and media attacks.
These are not normal times, as if they ever were in the past.