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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Follow the formbook when betting on Boris’s successor and choo

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Pulpstar said:

    alex. said:

    AndyJS said:
    Maybe Johnson really is going to appoint the most incompetent and deluded Cabinet in U.K. political history?
    He'd best not put Davis in as Chancellor
    What about Raab as Chancellor, Davis as Foreign Secretary and Patel as Home Secretary and IDS as Deputy PM?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would also point out the last LD Deputy PM, Nick Clegg, went to Westminster and of the 2 greatest Liberal PMs of the 19th century, Palmerston and Gladstone, the former went to Harrow and the latter went to Eton.

    Since Thatcher the LDs have had more public school educated leaders than the Tories, Ashdown, Bedford and Clegg, Westminster, 2 to 1 for the Tories, Cameron.

    Boris, Eton, or Hunt, Charterhouse, will only level the score.

    Ed Davey would put the LDs ahead again as he went to the independent Nottingham High School.

    Even Labour have had Blair, Fettes and of course Corbyn went to a private prep school before grammar school.

    Time was when Wesrminster School had as many Whig, Liberal and Radical politicians and PM's as Eton had Tories, but that ended with Russell after Charles Dilke, the great Liberal- Radical hope for PM of the late nineteenth century, turned out to have a bit of a racy private life for the time.

    Dilke ultimately helped set up the Labour party, and ironically Tony Benn, as a Westminster-educated radical aristocrat, vaguely like Nick Clegg, was actually in the same lineage.
    Interesting, Westminster has had 6 PMs, Henry Pelham, Thomas Pelham-Holles, Duke of Newcastle, Charles Watson-Wentworth, Marquess of Rockingham, Augustus Fitzroy, Duke of Grafton, William Cavendish-Bentick, Duke of Portland and Earl Russell. As you say all Whigs and Liberals bar the Duke of Portland who served once as a Whig and once as a Tory (plus former Deputy PM Clegg a Liberal too).

    Of the 45 out of 54 UK PMs educated at Private school, 19 went to Eton (Rosebery being the last Liberal Etonian PM from 1894-95) and 7 went to Harrow (Palmerston being the last Liberal Harrovian PM from 1855-1858 and 1859-1865) and 6 went to Westminster, all of whom were Whigs or Liberals as above.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_education
    All correct, but on a point of maximum arcana, Harrow and Westminster had the same number ; that list is missing James Waldegrave.

    I knew all that spectacularly obscure eighteenth century history in would come in useful someday...
    No way the best people can have come from such a narrow coterie of independent schools, the British public must love lapping up entitlement that emanates from bullshit self confidence.
    We're about to hit the zenith of that particular avenue I expect.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited July 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    alex. said:

    AndyJS said:
    Maybe Johnson really is going to appoint the most incompetent and deluded Cabinet in U.K. political history?
    He'd best not put Davis in as Chancellor
    What about Raab as Chancellor, Davis as Foreign Secretary and Patel as Home Secretary and IDS as Deputy PM?
    Think you’ve nailed it there. Dream team. Do you not think there is a teensy weeny chance that there may be a suggestion that he is cutting himself off from large sections and strands of opinion in the Tory Party?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Practically all Boris's proposed cabinet ministers previously resigned in disgrace. How can you bring Williamson back if he really was responsible for the Huaewei leak? How can you bring back Patel, who was fired for lying to the Prime Minister? And neither IDS nor Zac Goldsmith has ever done anything notably successful.

    (Except in the latter case resigning and then losing a by-election. Cock.)

    Nonsense. It was an open and shut case (or, given it's Williamson, an open and sh*t case).

    A very short list of suspects (as so few were in the meeting). Williamson is the one who didn't cooperate, and when they did get his 'phone records, who'd he been on the blower with at the crucial time... the journo who broke the story.

    Everything else is ludicrous conspiracy theory based on petulant denials by a kid who got caught with his hand in the cookie jar and chocolate smeared all over his face.
    In which case why did they refuse to get the police involved in spite of it being a criminal act. And in spite of Williamson himself requesting it.

    Seems you will believe any old bullshit if it suits you.
    Because you don’t get the police involved in politics. Yes this was a bad leak but sacking Williamson was a proportionate response.

    Sometimes things are as they seem to be
    This wasn't politics. It was a criminal act. Seems May was frightened they might actually uncover the truth.
    I’m not comfortable with politicians calling in the police to investigate other politicians
    If a crime is committed then I think it is essential. Otherwise we are in a situation where people can claim it is one law for them and one law for everyone else. This was not a normal leak and should not have been treated as such.
    The issue is virtually every leak is a breach of the Official Secrets Act so you need a bright line test on what you prosecute.

    To prosecute everything, as you suggest, is silly in my view. You can take the position this is from the NSC therefore is more serious. I’d rather look at the content than the body - I’m not an expert but got the impression that it embarrassed May rather than put lives at risk.

    More practically, you only have circumstantial evidence. (X had the information, X spoke to Y, Y published). I don’t think you can link that “beyond reasonable doubt” with Y turning in their source.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864

    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    Or not.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-rows-back-on-united-states-of-europe/
    Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen said she no longer advocates for the European Union to become a federal state after previously calling for the bloc to turn into "the United States of Europe."

    In an interview with a group of European newspapers published Thursday, she said her dream of a federalized EU had become "more mature and more realistic."

    "In the European Union, there is unity in diversity," she added. "That's different from federalism. I think that's the right way."

    Just possibly the EU understands federations less well than the UK. After all, we gave rise to four of them

    USA
    Canada
    Australia
    India

    and we co-wrote the constitution of the Federal German Republic after WW2.

    Off the top of my head, the only other federation I can think of in Europe is Switzerland.

    Federations can be more de-centralised and devolved than the EU is on some things. For instance I don't think the US federal government tells the states what time zone they must adopt. So, if Minnesota wanted to move an hour ahead in the winter months and have permanent summer time, it could do so.

    Vermont and New Hampshire are pretty different/diverse, despite being next door. Read some of Bill Bryson's books.
    The cultural change from BC to Alberta is wondrous to behold. You would think they were different countries entirely.
    Alberta is more like Wyoming or Montana than the rest of Canada and by far the most conservative Canadian province
    In truth, much of it resembles Texas. Oil, cattle, hundreds and hundreds of miles of flat, straight roads, pickup trucks, an aversion to paying tax, guns and right wing politics.
    BC is the opposite. Apart from the pickup trucks.
    Yes, Alberta still voted 59.5% Conservative at the last election even as Canada as a whole voted for Trudeau's Liberals by a landslide (including narrowly in BC).

    Alberta was the birthplace of the populist rightwing Reform Party which would overtake the more centrist and liberal Progressive Conservatives in the 1990s and ultimately take it over in 2003 to form today's Conservative Party of Canada
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    alex. said:

    AndyJS said:
    Maybe Johnson really is going to appoint the most incompetent and deluded Cabinet in U.K. political history?
    He'd best not put Davis in as Chancellor
    What about Raab as Chancellor, Davis as Foreign Secretary and Patel as Home Secretary and IDS as Deputy PM?
    😳
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    alex. said:

    AndyJS said:
    Maybe Johnson really is going to appoint the most incompetent and deluded Cabinet in U.K. political history?
    He'd best not put Davis in as Chancellor
    What about Raab as Chancellor, Davis as Foreign Secretary and Patel as Home Secretary and IDS as Deputy PM?
    Oh, pretty please. If you want a minority government (as well as a shambling, unpopular one too), be my guest.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478

    justin124 said:



    Sorry to hear that. I can empathise , having suffered from Meniere's Disease for several years. The loss of balance is particularly disorientating.

    Thanks to everyone for their good wishes, and sympathies to you and Mrs BigG and Alastair - just having it once was bad enough, must be awful to have recurrence lurking. Crossing fingers...
    Hi Nick.

    It is something my good lady has adjusted too and takes her medication immediately she feels dizzy and lies down for a while until it passes. It is an inconvenience sometimes but knowing what it is and how to deal with does instil confidence

    I hope your GP comes up with a quick diagnosis for you

    All the best
    Labyrinthitis is a a pain. (Only, of course, metaphorically!0
    I had it several years ago and it's messed up my balance ever since. You learn to live with the results, but. But! BUT!.
    Every good wish.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    edited July 2019
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    alex. said:

    AndyJS said:
    Maybe Johnson really is going to appoint the most incompetent and deluded Cabinet in U.K. political history?
    He'd best not put Davis in as Chancellor
    What about Raab as Chancellor, Davis as Foreign Secretary and Patel as Home Secretary and IDS as Deputy PM?
    Oh, pretty please. If you want a minority government (as well as a shambling, unpopular one too), be my guest.
    Don't you mean Priti please?

    To which the answer is, or ought to be, no thanks.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited July 2019
    <<No way the best people can have come from such a narrow coterie of independent schools, the British public must love lapping up entitlement that emanates from bullshit self confidence.
    We're about to hit the zenith of that particular avenue I expect.>>

    Ironically, I think we've had just had a procession of leaders exemplifying the phenomenon you're talking about , from Duncan-Smith to Johnson ; but the Tories' only salvation in the future, and possibly the only salvation for the entire mage of the older establishment in the eyes of many, might be yet another Etonian, as mentioned above.

    Rory Stewart is a much more typical fit of the late nineteenth to late twentieth century adaptable and more aware British Establishment - it didn't survive so long for nothing.

  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    alex. said:

    AndyJS said:
    Maybe Johnson really is going to appoint the most incompetent and deluded Cabinet in U.K. political history?
    He'd best not put Davis in as Chancellor
    What about Raab as Chancellor, Davis as Foreign Secretary and Patel as Home Secretary and IDS as Deputy PM?
    Oh, pretty please. If you want a minority government (as well as a shambling, unpopular one too), be my guest.
    But HYUFD was virtually told this would happen at dinner with Johnson, Raab and IDS last week? Maybe he is the Telegraph/May’s insider source?

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    alex. said:

    AndyJS said:
    Maybe Johnson really is going to appoint the most incompetent and deluded Cabinet in U.K. political history?
    He'd best not put Davis in as Chancellor
    What about Raab as Chancellor, Davis as Foreign Secretary and Patel as Home Secretary and IDS as Deputy PM?
    Javid COE, Hunt FS, Leadsom Home, and Mordaunt Defence, Truss Bus, McVey Chair, Morgan DPM
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited July 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would also point out the last LD Deputy PM, Nick Clegg, went to Westminster and of the 2 greatest Liberal PMs of the 19th century, Palmerston and Gladstone, the former went to Harrow and the latter

    Ed Davey would put the LDs ahead again as he went to the independent Nottingham High School.

    Even Labour have had Blair, Fettes and of course Corbyn went to a private prep school before grammar school.

    Time was when Wesrminster School had as many Whig, Liberal and Radical politicians and PM's as Eton had Tories, but that ended with Russell after Charles Dilke, the great Liberal- Radical hope for PM of the late nineteenth century, turned out to have a bit of a racy private life for the time.

    Dilke ultimately helped set up the Labour party, and ironically Tony Benn, as a Westminster-educated radical aristocrat, vaguely like Nick Clegg, was actually in the same lineage.
    Interesting, Westminster has had 6 PMs, Henry Pelham, Thomas Pelham-Holles, Duke of Newcastle, Charles Watson-Wentworth, Marquess of Rockingham, Augustus Fitzroy, Duke of Grafton, William Cavendish-Bentick, Duke of Portland and Earl Russell. As you say all Whigs and Liberals bar the Duke of Portland who served once as a Whig and once as a Tory (plus former Deputy PM Clegg a Liberal too).

    Of the 45 out of 54 UK PMs educated at Private school, 19 went to Eton (Rosebery being the last Liberal Etonian PM from 1894-95) and 7 went to Harrow (Palmerston being the last Liberal Harrovian PM from 1855-1858 and 1859-1865) and 6 went to Westminster, all of whom were Whigs or Liberals as above.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_education
    All correct, but on a point of maximum arcana, Harrow and Westminster had the same number ; that list is missing James Waldegrave.

    I knew all that spectacularly obscure eighteenth century history in would come in useful someday...
    No way the best people can have come from such a narrow coterie of independent schools, the British public must love lapping up entitlement that emanates from bullshit self confidence.
    We're about to hit the zenith of that particular avenue I expect.
    TBF before about 1900 the role was fairly dull and administrative so not really comparable in anyway

    Frankly I think it’s only a relevant statistic since the end of the Magic Circle.

    Since things have been more open (say 1970) you’ve had Cameron and now Johnson. That’s 6 years out of 49 for OEs and 16/49 for public school educated kids.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would also point out the last LD Deputy PM, Nick Clegg, went to Westminster and of the 2 greatest Liberal PMs of the 19th century, Palmerston and Gladstone, the former went to Harrow and the latter went to Eton.

    Since Thatcher the LDs have had more public school educated leaders than the Tories, Ashdown, Bedford and Clegg, Westminster, 2 to 1 for the Tories, Cameron.

    Boris, Eton, or Hunt, Charterhouse, will only level the score.

    Ed Davey would put the LDs ahead again as he went to the independent Nottingham High School.

    Even Labour have had Blair, Fettes and of course Corbyn went to a private prep school before grammar school.

    Time was when Wesrminster School had as many Whig, Liberal and Radical politicians and PM's as Eton had Tories, but that ended with Russell after Charles Dilke, the great Liberal- Radical hope for PM of the late nineteenth century, turned out to have a bit of a racy private life for the time.

    Dilke ultimately helped set up the Labour party, and ironically Tony Benn, as a Westminster-educated radical aristocrat, vaguely like Nick Clegg, was actually in the same lineage.
    Interesting, Westminster has had 6 PMs, Henry Pelham, Thomas Pelham-Holles, Duke of Newcastle, Charles Watson-Wentworth, Marquess of Rockingham, Augustus Fitzroy, Duke of Grafton, William Cavendish-Bentick, Duke of Portland and Earl Russell. As you say all Whigs and Liberals bar the Duke of Portland who served once as a Whig and once as a Tory (plus former Deputy PM Clegg a Liberal too).

    Of the 45 out of 54 UK PMs educated at Private school, 19 went to Eton (Rosebery being the last Liberal Etonian PM from 1894-95) and 7 went to Harrow (Palmerston being the last Liberal Harrovian PM from 1855-1858 and 1859-1865) and 6 went to Westminster, all of whom were Whigs or Liberals as above.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_education
    All correct, but on a point of maximum arcana, Harrow and Westminster had the same number ; that list is missing James Waldegrave, yet another Whig or Liberal.

    https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/The_Memoirs_and_Speeches_of_James_2nd_Ea.html?id=X8GrL_g9enMC&redir_esc=y

    I knew all that spectacularly obscure eighteenth century history in would come in useful someday...
    The days when PMs did not have to worry too much about what most people thought of them as barely any of them were allowed to vote
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    Peter Bone went to my old school, albeit some while after me. Clearly the standard of Civics teaching in the VIth form went down considerably after I left.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1141780599604224000

    The Boris Cabinet stories are surely dead cats (to distract from what? Anything embarrassing in the Sundays?) or at best kite-flying by someone angling for a job. JRM for Chief Secretary while he's running a hedge fund? It is literally incredible.

    Cabinets have to be balanced. Boris must ensure his enemies as well as his friends are represented; a mixture of genders and races; even different parts of the country. A wish-list of prominent Brexiteers does not cut the mustard.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Is it possible that Johnson might lose a VoNC within the Tory Party within days of becoming leader?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    alex. said:

    AndyJS said:
    Maybe Johnson really is going to appoint the most incompetent and deluded Cabinet in U.K. political history?
    He'd best not put Davis in as Chancellor
    What about Raab as Chancellor, Davis as Foreign Secretary and Patel as Home Secretary and IDS as Deputy PM?
    Oh, pretty please. If you want a minority government (as well as a shambling, unpopular one too), be my guest.
    Don't you mean Priti please?

    To which the answer is, or ought to be, no thanks.
    Dreadful choice if true
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited July 2019
    Will there be a betting market on Priti having a rerenedum to bring back hanging by Xmas 2021? :D
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    alex. said:

    AndyJS said:
    Maybe Johnson really is going to appoint the most incompetent and deluded Cabinet in U.K. political history?
    He'd best not put Davis in as Chancellor
    What about Raab as Chancellor, Davis as Foreign Secretary and Patel as Home Secretary and IDS as Deputy PM?
    Javid COE, Hunt FS, Leadsom Home, and Mordaunt Defence, Truss Bus, McVey Chair, Morgan DPM
    All aboard the Truss bus! There's a seat there. On the McVey Chair. :)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    alex. said:

    Is it possible that Johnson might lose a VoNC within the Tory Party within days of becoming leader?

    No because they're all off on hols on Thursday.

    But expect Boris to premt the VONC when Parliament returns by calling a general election on 5th September. ;)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    alex. said:

    Is it possible that Johnson might lose a VoNC within the Tory Party within days of becoming leader?

    I think that is highly unlikely.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    edited July 2019
    alex. said:

    Is it possible that Johnson might lose a VoNC within the Tory Party within days of becoming leader?

    If he appoints HYUFD's wish list I will be first in the queue
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Has anyone submitted any conditional letters to the 1922 committee yet though?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    alex. said:

    AndyJS said:
    Maybe Johnson really is going to appoint the most incompetent and deluded Cabinet in U.K. political history?
    He'd best not put Davis in as Chancellor
    What about Raab as Chancellor, Davis as Foreign Secretary and Patel as Home Secretary and IDS as Deputy PM?
    Javid COE, Hunt FS, Leadsom Home, and Mordaunt Defence, Truss Bus, McVey Chair, Morgan DPM
    I would not have too many problems with that and it looks plausible.

    Hancock is bidding for COE though and Davis and Fallon for FS and IDS for DPM where Hunt is also possible. Leadsom a longshot for Home, Cleverly likely Chair, Patel International Trade.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    alex. said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    alex. said:

    AndyJS said:
    Maybe Johnson really is going to appoint the most incompetent and deluded Cabinet in U.K. political history?
    He'd best not put Davis in as Chancellor
    What about Raab as Chancellor, Davis as Foreign Secretary and Patel as Home Secretary and IDS as Deputy PM?
    Oh, pretty please. If you want a minority government (as well as a shambling, unpopular one too), be my guest.
    But HYUFD was virtually told this would happen at dinner with Johnson, Raab and IDS last week? Maybe he is the Telegraph/May’s insider source?

    Raab is likely Justice.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    alex. said:

    AndyJS said:
    Maybe Johnson really is going to appoint the most incompetent and deluded Cabinet in U.K. political history?
    He'd best not put Davis in as Chancellor
    What about Raab as Chancellor, Davis as Foreign Secretary and Patel as Home Secretary and IDS as Deputy PM?
    Javid COE, Hunt FS, Leadsom Home, and Mordaunt Defence, Truss Bus, McVey Chair, Morgan DPM
    All aboard the Truss bus! There's a seat there. On the McVey Chair. :)
    I am not enthused by my own selection but HYUFD's choice is just appalling and will create a wall of anger with the moderates
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    GIN1138 said:

    alex. said:

    Is it possible that Johnson might lose a VoNC within the Tory Party within days of becoming leader?

    No because they're all off on hols on Thursday.

    But expect Boris to premt the VONC when Parliament returns by calling a general election on 5th September. ;)
    He cannot call an election just like that under FPTP
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    GIN1138 said:

    alex. said:

    Is it possible that Johnson might lose a VoNC within the Tory Party within days of becoming leader?

    No because they're all off on hols on Thursday.

    But expect Boris to premt the VONC when Parliament returns by calling a general election on 5th September. ;)
    He cannot call an election just like that under FPTP
    You know what I meant. ;)
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    GIN1138 said:

    Will there be a betting market on Priti having a rerenedum to bring back hanging by Xmas 2021? :D
    "Let's take the £x xxx xxx per year it costs to keep sicko perv murderer lifers in prison and spend it on the NHS." Landslide.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would also point out the last LD Deputy PM, Nick Clegg, went to Westminster and of the 2 greatest Liberal PMs of the 19th century, Palmerston and Gladstone, the former went to Harrow and the latter

    Ed Davey would put the LDs ahead again as he went to the independent Nottingham High School.

    Even Labour have had Blair, Fettes and of course Corbyn went to a private prep school before grammar school.

    Time was when Wesrminster School had as many Whig, Liberal and Radical politicians and PM's as Eton had Tories, but that ended with Russell after Charles Dilke, the great Liberal- Radical hope for PM of the late nineteenth century, turned out to have a bit of a racy private life for the time.

    Dilke ultimately helped set up the Labour party, and ironically Tony Benn, as a Westminster-educated radical aristocrat, vaguely like Nick Clegg, was actually in the same lineage.
    Interesting, Westminster has had 6 PMs, Henry Pelham, Thomas Pelham-Holles, Duke of Newcastle, Charles Watson-Wentworth, Marquess of Rockingham, Augustus Fitzroy, Duke of Grafton, William Cavendish-Bentick, Duke of Portland and Earl Russell. As you say all Whiall of whom were Whigs or Liberals as above.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_education
    All correct, but on a point of maximum arcana, Harrow and Westminster had the same number ; that list is missing James Waldegrave.

    I knew all that spectacularly obscure eighteenth century history in would come in useful someday...
    No way the best people can have come from such a narrow coterie of independent schools, the British public must love lapping up entitlement that emanates from bullshit self confidence.
    We're about to hit the zenith of that particular avenue I expect.
    TBF before about 1900 the role was fairly dull and administrative so not really comparable in anyway

    Frankly I think it’s only a relevant statistic since the end of the Magic Circle.

    Since things have been more open (say 1970) you’ve had Cameron and now Johnson. That’s 6 years out of 49 for OEs and 16/49 for public school educated kids.
    Indeed, since 1970 7 PMs went to state school (with May the first to have attended a comprehensive rather than just a grammar) and only 2, Blair and Cameron, have been to public school.


    Though Boris, Eton, or Hunt, Charterhouse, will add a third
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Boris could appoint the most ethnically diverse front bench ever if Javid is CoE and Patel is at Home !
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    GIN1138 said:

    alex. said:

    Is it possible that Johnson might lose a VoNC within the Tory Party within days of becoming leader?

    No because they're all off on hols on Thursday.

    But expect Boris to premt the VONC when Parliament returns by calling a general election on 5th September. ;)
    He cannot call an election just like that under FPTP
    May did. ;)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Pulpstar said:

    Boris could appoint the most ethnically diverse front bench ever if Javid is CoE and Patel is at Home !

    Hmmm, unfortunately that doesn't fit the racist Tory scum narrative.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    alex. said:

    Is it possible that Johnson might lose a VoNC within the Tory Party within days of becoming leader?

    No because they're all off on hols on Thursday.

    But expect Boris to premt the VONC when Parliament returns by calling a general election on 5th September. ;)
    He cannot call an election just like that under FPTP
    May did. ;)
    And look what happened !!!!!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    While we are all busily enacting the "V for Vendetta" prequel IRL, I thought I'd share a nice trailer with you:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhBBXHwEsIo
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    alex. said:

    AndyJS said:
    Maybe Johnson really is going to appoint the most incompetent and deluded Cabinet in U.K. political history?
    He'd best not put Davis in as Chancellor
    What about Raab as Chancellor, Davis as Foreign Secretary and Patel as Home Secretary and IDS as Deputy PM?
    Javid COE, Hunt FS, Leadsom Home, and Mordaunt Defence, Truss Bus, McVey Chair, Morgan DPM
    I would not have too many problems with that and it looks plausible.

    Hancock is bidding for COE though and Davis and Fallon for FS and IDS for DPM where Hunt is also possible. Leadsom a longshot for Home, Cleverly likely Chair, Patel International Trade.
    Make your mind up. Where is your usual sure footedness?

    Fallon was forced to resign in disgrace less than 2 years ago! And now he might be back as Foreign Secretary? Convention says you’ve at least got to get through re-election first!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    @HYUFD:
    Yes, Alberta still voted 59.5% Conservative at the last election even as Canada as a whole voted for Trudeau's Liberals by a landslide (including narrowly in BC).

    Alberta was the birthplace of the populist rightwing Reform Party which would overtake the more centrist and liberal Progressive Conservatives in the 1990s and ultimately take it over in 2003 to form today's Conservative Party of Canada

    @dixiedean:
    The Alberta PM, Jason Kenney was in my year at my school. He was expelled (technically "asked not to return") the year before I went. I could tell some stories, but they are second hand, and potentially very, very libellous.
    A school on Vancouver Island was probably far, far too pinko commie fag loving for him anyways.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Boris could appoint the most ethnically diverse front bench ever if Javid is CoE and Patel is at Home !

    Hmmm, unfortunately that doesn't fit the racist Tory scum narrative.
    If you’re going to appoint people to tick boxes, it’s usually advisable to choose people with a basic level of competence.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    TGOHF said:

    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864

    Walking away from vacuous statements praising statist centralised planning ? Good.
    I'm not entirely sure the incoming UK administration will arrogate less power to itself... :)
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Judging by the Sunday Times , no need to worry , the EU are desperate to avoid no deal and seem to be willing to compromise until you realize this is all being relayed by sources in Bozos camp !

    What seems a bit more reliable from other papers is Cox wanting to keep the WA and get something on the backstop versus IDS wanting to dump the whole thing .
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Boris could appoint the most ethnically diverse front bench ever if Javid is CoE and Patel is at Home !

    Hmmm, unfortunately that doesn't fit the racist Tory scum narrative.
    That would be the point. Boris needs to prove, or rather show, that he is not racist.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Advantage LDs on that poll certainly but Tories plus Brexit Party =48%, LDs 43% so if Boris gets a big bounce and wins back most Brexit Party voters the Tories still have an outside chance of scraping home.


    Indeed on that poll the LDs are still doing worse in Brecon than the 46% they got in 2010 or the 45% they got in 2005
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Scott_P said:
    Here were my and @rcs1000 guesses from a few days back

    @rcs1000

    LD 40%
    Con 35%
    BXP 15%

    Pulpstar

    LD 45
    Con 25
    BXP 20
    Lab 7.5
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Scott_P said:
    HYUFD will say this poll proves that Boris Johnson will sweep the nation because 48% support him.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Scott_P said:
    Hopefully on the day Brexit will pass Con.

    Con should be humiliated for putting up a convicted criminal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    dixiedean said:


    @HYUFD:
    Yes, Alberta still voted 59.5% Conservative at the last election even as Canada as a whole voted for Trudeau's Liberals by a landslide (including narrowly in BC).

    Alberta was the birthplace of the populist rightwing Reform Party which would overtake the more centrist and liberal Progressive Conservatives in the 1990s and ultimately take it over in 2003 to form today's Conservative Party of Canada

    @dixiedean:
    The Alberta PM, Jason Kenney was in my year at my school. He was expelled (technically "asked not to return") the year before I went. I could tell some stories, but they are second hand, and potentially very, very libellous.
    A school on Vancouver Island was probably far, far too pinko commie fag loving for him anyways.

    Sounds an interesting character
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Would we expect to see a much higher than normal postal vote in Brecon and Radnor given the August date when more people than normal will be away .
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    alex. said:



    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    alex. said:

    AndyJS said:
    Maybe Johnson really is going to appoint the most incompetent and deluded Cabinet in U.K. political history?
    He'd best not put Davis in as Chancellor
    What about Raab as Chancellor, Davis as Foreign Secretary and Patel as Home Secretary and IDS as Deputy PM?
    Javid COE, Hunt FS, Leadsom Home, and Mordaunt Defence, Truss Bus, McVey Chair, Morgan DPM
    I would not have too many problems with that and it looks plausible.

    Hancock is bidding for COE though and Davis and Fallon for FS and IDS for DPM where Hunt is also possible. Leadsom a longshot for Home, Cleverly likely Chair, Patel International Trade.
    Make your mind up. Where is your usual sure footedness?

    Fallon was forced to resign in disgrace less than 2 years ago! And now he might be back as Foreign Secretary? Convention says you’ve at least got to get through re-election first!
    Although (IIRC) the specifics of Fallon’s fall from grace were much less serious than, say, Fox’s
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    alex. said:
    Is that the first time MRLP have been > * on an opinion poll? 😂
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    Here were my and @rcs1000 guesses from a few days back

    @rcs1000

    LD 40%
    Con 35%
    BXP 15%

    Pulpstar

    LD 45
    Con 25
    BXP 20
    Lab 7.5
    Looks like you underestimated the Tories and overestimated the LDs there, unlike RCS
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    nico67 said:

    Judging by the Sunday Times , no need to worry , the EU are desperate to avoid no deal and seem to be willing to compromise until you realize this is all being relayed by sources in Bozos camp !

    What seems a bit more reliable from other papers is Cox wanting to keep the WA and get something on the backstop versus IDS wanting to dump the whole thing .

    IDS voted for the Brady amendment
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    Honestly not terrible for the Tories in the circumstances
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    Had an interesting encounter with the NHS today - a bout of vertigo (new to me) left me on the kitchen floor in a pool of blood from a head wound. Called 111, got advice, then a friend took me to Guildford A&E.

    + Impressive 111 service - answered in a minute, thorough discussion, recommended A&E within an hour
    + Really careful, thorough examination to check it wasn't a signal for anything urgent, cleaning of the wound and gluing up.
    + Friendly, tactful, cheerful clinical staff
    - Loooong waits - always take a book to hospital. 5 hours in total, of which maybe 25 minutes actually seeing anyone.
    - Cynical, indifferent receptionist

    Overall, still pretty good! Need to get my GP to explore other causes, ears being the obvious.

    Good luck Nick. If it helps, I have an acoustic neuroma (non-cancerous tumour) in one ear which about 5 years ago first manifested itself in a prolonged spell of vertigo combined with sudden and permanent hearing loss in the ear. The tumour was pressing on the same group of nerves that affect both balance and hearing, The vertigo went gradually over a month but I couldn't stand up for a couple of days and the tumour has been treated to make it shrink. Anyway the point is that the hospital consultants couldn't tell definitively whether it was down to labyrithitis or a tumour until an MRI was done, so I suggest you make sure that the GP is able to eliminate the possibility that something is affecting the nerves in your ear and if not press to get referred back to a consultant and on the waiting list for an MRI.

    My initial treatment was in Paris where it all kicked off on a long weekend break - so no waits but no expense spared either (with French health spending as a % of GDP way up on that of the UK). On discharge I discovered that the hospital building was absolutely stunning.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lariboisière_Hospital

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    A bit OT, but whatever happened to the electoral commission's urgent investigation into the finances of the Brexit Party? Seems to have become a little less urgent since the election.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Judging by the Sunday Times , no need to worry , the EU are desperate to avoid no deal and seem to be willing to compromise until you realize this is all being relayed by sources in Bozos camp !

    What seems a bit more reliable from other papers is Cox wanting to keep the WA and get something on the backstop versus IDS wanting to dump the whole thing .

    IDS voted for the Brady amendment
    So he doesn’t want to ditch the whole thing? Fake news?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Hopefully on the day Brexit will pass Con.

    Con should be humiliated for putting up a convicted criminal.
    As Brecon goes, so goes the nation.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Honestly not terrible for the Tories in the circumstances
    Still on 30% with a convicted fraudster? Nice. :p
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Hopefully on the day Brexit will pass Con.

    Con should be humiliated for putting up a convicted criminal.
    As Brecon goes, so goes the nation.
    Harlow or Dartford or Nuneaton or Putney maybe, not Brecon.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Honestly not terrible for the Tories in the circumstances
    I would suspect that at least some voters are not to happy at the Libdem-Green pact thing and effectively being told that they must vote on the back of a single issue. Also may have partly undermined the vote against Davies for his conviction.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Honestly not terrible for the Tories in the circumstances
    If you say a 17.5% swing is not terrible, it's not terrible!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    edited July 2019

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Honestly not terrible for the Tories in the circumstances
    If you say a 17.5% swing is not terrible, it's not terrible!
    Same swing against labour police and crime commissioner in the north east this week

    Both main parties in trouble
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Charles said:

    alex. said:



    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    alex. said:

    AndyJS said:
    Maybe Johnson really is going to appoint the most incompetent and deluded Cabinet in U.K. political history?
    He'd best not put Davis in as Chancellor
    What about Raab as Chancellor, Davis as Foreign Secretary and Patel as Home Secretary and IDS as Deputy PM?
    Javid COE, Hunt FS, Leadsom Home, and Mordaunt Defence, Truss Bus, McVey Chair, Morgan DPM
    I would not have too many problems with that and it looks plausible.

    Hancock is bidding for COE though and Davis and Fallon for FS and IDS for DPM where Hunt is also possible. Leadsom a longshot for Home, Cleverly likely Chair, Patel International Trade.
    Make your mind up. Where is your usual sure footedness?

    Fallon was forced to resign in disgrace less than 2 years ago! And now he might be back as Foreign Secretary? Convention says you’ve at least got to get through re-election first!
    Although (IIRC) the specifics of Fallon’s fall from grace were much less serious than, say, Fox’s
    Yes. Fallon touched the knee, we're told of a Brexiteer republican.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Honestly not terrible for the Tories in the circumstances
    If you say a 17.5% swing is not terrible, it's not terrible!
    An even bigger 20.5% swing from the Tories to the Brexit Party than the 17.5% swing from the Tories to the LDs.


    Given the LDs are up 14% and Labour down 10% most of the LD gains are from Labour, not the Tories
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Hopefully on the day Brexit will pass Con.

    Con should be humiliated for putting up a convicted criminal.
    As Brecon goes, so goes the nation.
    Harlow or Dartford or Nuneaton or Putney maybe, not Brecon.
    I was joking :smile: Although I dream of LibDems and Greens wiping the floor across vast swaths of Britain.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Advantage LDs on that poll certainly but Tories plus Brexit Party =48%, LDs 43% so if Boris gets a big bounce and wins back most Brexit Party voters the Tories still have an outside chance of scraping home.


    Indeed on that poll the LDs are still doing worse in Brecon than the 46% they got in 2010 or the 45% they got in 2005
    Yes, the same chance Le Pen had to beat Macron in the first round.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    HYUFD said:
    As long as they are not advocating sending all British Muslims to concentration camps, it is less embarrassing than what he has fantasised about on here.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Honestly not terrible for the Tories in the circumstances
    If you say a 17.5% swing is not terrible, it's not terrible!
    An even bigger 20.5% swing from the Tories to the Brexit Party than the 17.5% swing from the Tories to the LDs.


    Given the LDs are up 14% and Labour down 10% most of the LD gains are from Labour, not the Tories
    OMG we finally agree on something ! Yes this looks like Labour Remainers ditching the party . The types of Tory Lib Dem crossover I would have thought would be less likely in this seat compared with more Metropolitan areas.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The government without David Gauke - how will the nation survive ?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    justin124 said:



    Sorry to hear that. I can empathise , having suffered from Meniere's Disease for several years. The loss of balance is particularly disorientating.

    Thanks to everyone for their good wishes, and sympathies to you and Mrs BigG and Alastair - just having it once was bad enough, must be awful to have recurrence lurking. Crossing fingers...
    Sorry to hear this Nick. Don't let them talk you into using benzodiazepines if it is Meniere's.

    There is a documentary by an Irish journalist about what a disaster that can be.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Advantage LDs on that poll certainly but Tories plus Brexit Party =48%, LDs 43% so if Boris gets a big bounce and wins back most Brexit Party voters the Tories still have an outside chance of scraping home.


    Indeed on that poll the LDs are still doing worse in Brecon than the 46% they got in 2010 or the 45% they got in 2005
    Yes, the same chance Le Pen had to beat Macron in the first round.
    Wait, was it HYUFD who gave us such amusement on French election night telling us that Le Pen was going to win because she was winning more French departements in a vote decided on the basis of total votes cast?

  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    GIN1138 said:

    Will there be a betting market on Priti having a rerenedum to bring back hanging by Xmas 2021? :D
    Hanging on pay-per-view before the 9 pm watershed !
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    TGOHF said:

    The government without David Gauke - how will the nation survive ?

    :D
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    GIN1138 said:

    Will there be a betting market on Priti having a rerenedum to bring back hanging by Xmas 2021? :D
    Hanging on pay-per-view before the 9 pm watershed !
    Well it would Reality TV to its natural conclussion...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Hopefully on the day Brexit will pass Con.

    Con should be humiliated for putting up a convicted criminal.
    As Brecon goes, so goes the nation.
    Harlow or Dartford or Nuneaton or Putney maybe, not Brecon.
    Do the Loonies support Brexit? If so, it would be 50/50 in Brecon&Radnor.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Hmm. Why am I suspicious of all this briefing about Patel and Home Sec?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Hopefully on the day Brexit will pass Con.

    Con should be humiliated for putting up a convicted criminal.
    As Brecon goes, so goes the nation.
    Harlow or Dartford or Nuneaton or Putney maybe, not Brecon.
    Do the Loonies support Brexit? If so, it would be 50/50 in Brecon&Radnor.
    Not all Loonies support Brexit, although all Brexiters are loonies.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited July 2019
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Hopefully on the day Brexit will pass Con.

    Con should be humiliated for putting up a convicted criminal.
    As Brecon goes, so goes the nation.
    Harlow or Dartford or Nuneaton or Putney maybe, not Brecon.
    Do the Loonies support Brexit? If so, it would be 50/50 in Brecon&Radnor.
    2% swing

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    There is so much briefing on cost of HS2 that methinks something is afoot.

    Madness. Over a lifespan of probably 150 years what the hell does £20b or £30b matter?

    Did the Victorians/Edwardians worry about building the Underground?

    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1152497462252363777
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    At the rate Amber Rudd is going she’ll soon be in the Brexit Party .

    One of the most shameless u turns in modern political history . Now she’s swearing undying allegiance to Bozo .

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    nico67 said:

    At the rate Amber Rudd is going she’ll soon be in the Brexit Party .

    One of the most shameless u turns in modern political history . Now she’s swearing undying allegiance to Bozo .

    Yep. Sad. Desperate. Pathetic. Disappointing.



  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    These malcontents like Gauke - why didn’t they put a candidate up in the leadership election ? Their popular offering of revoke would surely have won by a landslide ?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    nico67 said:

    At the rate Amber Rudd is going she’ll soon be in the Brexit Party .

    One of the most shameless u turns in modern political history . Now she’s swearing undying allegiance to Bozo .

    Yep. Sad. Desperate. Pathetic. Disappointing.



    I think at one of the Hustings even Johnson and Hunt were making fun of her.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    At the rate Amber Rudd is going she’ll soon be in the Brexit Party .

    One of the most shameless u turns in modern political history . Now she’s swearing undying allegiance to Bozo .

    Yep. Sad. Desperate. Pathetic. Disappointing.



    I hope Bozo fires her and she can sit friendless on the backbenches . Indeed he needs to fire her and Hancock .

    I can’t stand the vomit inducing desperation of both her and Hancock .

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    At the rate Amber Rudd is going she’ll soon be in the Brexit Party .

    One of the most shameless u turns in modern political history . Now she’s swearing undying allegiance to Bozo .

    Yep. Sad. Desperate. Pathetic. Disappointing.



    I hope Bozo fires her and she can sit friendless on the backbenches . Indeed he needs to fire her and Hancock .

    I can’t stand the vomit inducing desperation of both her and Hancock .

    Yep. Utterly pathetic.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Loads of people in big finance think there is going to be a world wide recession/depression.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Loads of people in big finance think there is going to be a world wide recession/depression.
    Yet it has been falling for the past thirty years, so not a hugely reliable indicator!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Amber Rudd seemed to have her head screwed on right, but let’s be honest, her ministerial career so far has been nothing to write home about.

    In fact she’s chiefly associated in my mind with the Windrush debacle and the ill-fated proposal to get bosses to snitch on European’s right of abode.

    She appears to have blagged her way to the top various posho connections. If she disappeared from public life it would be no great loss.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    edited July 2019

    Amber Rudd seemed to have her head screwed on right, but let’s be honest, her ministerial career so far has been nothing to write home about.

    In fact she’s chiefly associated in my mind with the Windrush debacle and the ill-fated proposal to get bosses to snitch on European’s right of abode.

    She appears to have blagged her way to the top various posho connections. If she disappeared from public life it would be no great loss.

    She has ended up with not a scintilla of self respect left. Hope she can sleep at nights...
This discussion has been closed.