Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Follow the formbook when betting on Boris’s successor and choo

24

Comments

  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,133
    rcs1000 said:

    Practically all Boris's proposed cabinet ministers previously resigned in disgrace. How can you bring Williamson back if he really was responsible for the Huaewei leak? How can you bring back Patel, who was fired for lying to the Prime Minister? And neither IDS nor Zac Goldsmith has ever done anything notably successful.

    (Except in the latter case resigning and then losing a by-election. Cock.)

    Don't forget the principled Jo Johnson.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    Meanwhile over the pond, Susan Collins, Maine's Republican Senator, has seen her favourability collapse. She used to be the most popular Senator in the US, enjoying +40 approval ratings.

    She's now getting negative numbers, and (apparently) is second only to Mitch McConnell in terms of unpopularity. Given that Maine is a pretty Blue state, expect that state to flip next year.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    One or two individuals wittering on about the "Boris Bounce" and how only Boris can lead the Conservatives to a GE majority should perhaps look at how the picture has changed with ComRes during the leadership campaign.

    One of the big factors establishing Johnson's advantage was the poll published on 11th June showing with Boris as leader the Conservatives romping to a 140-seat landslide majority.

    Next time the question was asked that figure had fallen to a 40 majority.

    When ComRes asked the question this week "Boris Johnson is Prime Minister and Brexit was delivered on 31st October", the Conservative lead is just three points and the Commons is again deadlocked with Conservatives needing DUP support once again.

    So that's a 140 seat majority gone in a month - I also suspect one of the reasons Boris attracted so much support among MPs was the ComRes poll showing only he could save the backbenchers from unemployment and the party from a damaging defeat. Now, that "evidence" is different. There's no Boris Bounce - even delivering Brexit doesn't deliver a majority.

    One area where the pro-Johnson people have it right - if he goes to the country without having delivered Brexit on 31/10 the Conservative survivors will be the fifth largest group in the new Commons.

    Wait for incoming you can’t use polls to challenge the poll expert for gods sake
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    One or two individuals wittering on about the "Boris Bounce" and how only Boris can lead the Conservatives to a GE majority should perhaps look at how the picture has changed with ComRes during the leadership campaign.

    One of the big factors establishing Johnson's advantage was the poll published on 11th June showing with Boris as leader the Conservatives romping to a 140-seat landslide majority.

    Next time the question was asked that figure had fallen to a 40 majority.

    When ComRes asked the question this week "Boris Johnson is Prime Minister and Brexit was delivered on 31st October", the Conservative lead is just three points and the Commons is again deadlocked with Conservatives needing DUP support once again.

    So that's a 140 seat majority gone in a month - I also suspect one of the reasons Boris attracted so much support among MPs was the ComRes poll showing only he could save the backbenchers from unemployment and the party from a damaging defeat. Now, that "evidence" is different. There's no Boris Bounce - even delivering Brexit doesn't deliver a majority.

    One area where the pro-Johnson people have it right - if he goes to the country without having delivered Brexit on 31/10 the Conservative survivors will be the fifth largest group in the new Commons.

    The poll actually had asked about Boris being PM and taking us out of the EU with No Deal, in which case it had Tories 22%, Labour 21%, LD 12%, Brexit Party 7%. No Deal was not mentioned in previous questions.

    If the question is just about Brexit being delivered it is Tories 23%, Labour 21%, LD 13%, Brexit Party 8%.

    If however the question is about Boris extending then it is Tories 13%, Labour 21%, LD 14%, Brexit Party 18%. If Hunt extends it is Tories 14%, Labour 21%,
    LDs 13%, Brexit Party 19%.

    However in each case an absurdly high 17 to 20% of voters are undecided reducing what can be read into them


    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Britain-Elects-Final-Tables-180719.pdf
    Maybe I'm being an idiot, but in the case of No Deal Brexit, the combined total for Con/Lab/LD/BXP is just 65%. Who gets the other 35%?
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    HYUFD said:



    54% of Labour members still back Corbyn in that thread even when he now has the lowest rating of any opposition leader since WW2 with the public.


    Jess Phillips backed Yvette Cooper for Labour leader in 2015 and Owen Smith in 2016, that is Blairite now for most Labour members

    I know quite a few unhappy members - what bothers most of them is simply that we're doing so badly in the polls. They were similarly unhappy pre-2017, and cheered up no end when we nearly won. It's a mistake to think that they're longing for centrist policies - some are, but not many. That's why McDonnell is now the most popular Shadow Cabinet member (according to the Labour List poll, which is admittedly self-selecting but usually pretty good guides), but Starmer is 2nd and was up to recently 1st, so being centrist isn't seen as a cardinal sin either.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068

    rcs1000 said:

    Practically all Boris's proposed cabinet ministers previously resigned in disgrace. How can you bring Williamson back if he really was responsible for the Huaewei leak? How can you bring back Patel, who was fired for lying to the Prime Minister? And neither IDS nor Zac Goldsmith has ever done anything notably successful.

    (Except in the latter case resigning and then losing a by-election. Cock.)

    Don't forget the principled Jo Johnson.
    JJ is such a non-entity, that I had completely forgotten him. Does anyone really think he'd merit a job in any other post-War British cabinet?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    edited July 2019
    stodge said:

    Time for a quick look at some European polling.

    Ukraine vote in their parliamentary election tomorrow and it looks certain Servant of the People, the party of President Zelenskiy, will win close to if not an actual majority, You need 213 seats in the Rada for a majority and with the party polling in the high 40s, Dmytro Razumkov will only need a few extra seats to govern and may well govern alone.

    In Germany, the latest Forsa poll has put the CDU/CSU on 27% with the Greens on 24%. Few changes in the latest Swedish and Austrian polls - in the former, the Social Democrats have an 8 point lead over the Swedish Democrats and the Moderates while in Austria the OVP continues to enjoy a huge lead over the SPD and the FPO.

    Finally, a rare poll from Ireland while has Fianna Fail enjoying a 4 point lead over Fine Gael (30-26). SinnFein are third on 14% but the Greens have slumped to 7%. Labour has 5%. The next Irish GE is due next year.


    Germany does not vote again until 2021, Sweden until 2022.

    Italy though may have an autumn general election alongside Austria.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/18/italys-salvini-says-elections-still-possible-after-summer-break.html

    Latest Italian poll has it Lega Nord 35.9%, PD 21.6%, M5S 17.4%, FI 8.2%

    https://scenaripolitici.com/2019/07/sondaggio-ipsos-20-luglio-2019.html
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,063
    Good evening everyone, from a cold and windy holiday on Anglesey where I've spent much of the afternoon watching three of my grandchildren crabbing on Beaumaris pier.
    Why crabs don't have sense to drop off the bacon when it's clear they're being pulled clear of the water I don't know. Reminds me of Corbyn loyalists!
    Otherwise I note HUYFD's coments and the reaction to them. As one of her constituents, the idea of Priti Patel being given anything responsble to do in government appals me.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Time for a quick look at some European polling.

    Ukraine vote in their parliamentary election tomorrow and it looks certain Servant of the People, the party of President Zelenskiy, will win close to if not an actual majority, You need 213 seats in the Rada for a majority and with the party polling in the high 40s, Dmytro Razumkov will only need a few extra seats to govern and may well govern alone.

    In Germany, the latest Forsa poll has put the CDU/CSU on 27% with the Greens on 24%. Few changes in the latest Swedish and Austrian polls - in the former, the Social Democrats have an 8 point lead over the Swedish Democrats and the Moderates while in Austria the OVP continues to enjoy a huge lead over the SPD and the FPO.

    Finally, a rare poll from Ireland while has Fianna Fail enjoying a 4 point lead over Fine Gael (30-26). SinnFein are third on 14% but the Greens have slumped to 7%. Labour has 5%. The next Irish GE is due next year.


    Germany does not vote again until 2021.

    Italy though may have an autumn general election
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/18/italys-salvini-says-elections-still-possible-after-summer-break.html

    Latest Italian poll has it Lega Nord 35.9%, PD 21.6%, M5S 17.4%, FI 8.2%

    https://scenaripolitici.com/2019/07/sondaggio-ipsos-20-luglio-2019.html
    It is worth remembering that while Salvini can pull the plug on the M5S coalition, he cannot by himself cause a General Election in Italy.

    M5S + PD have more than 50% of the seats in the Italian parliament, and Beppe Grillo has been publicly increasing rude about Salvini - unhappy that his party (which substantially outpolled the LN last tiime) is not getting credit. It is possible that Salvini sends himself back into opposition rather than getting his GE.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    edited July 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    One or two individuals wittering on about the "Boris Bounce" and how only Boris can lead the Conservatives to a GE majority should perhaps look at how the picture has changed with ComRes during the leadership campaign.

    One of the big factors establishing Johnson's advantage was the poll published on 11th June showing with Boris as leader the Conservatives romping to a 140-seat landslide majority.

    Next time the question was asked that figure had fallen to a 40 majority.

    When ComRes asked the question this week "Boris Johnson is Prime Minister and Brexit was delivered on 31st October", the Conservative lead is just three points and the Commons is again deadlocked with Conservatives needing DUP support once again.

    So that's a 140 seat majority gone in a month - I also suspect one of the reasons Boris attracted so much support among MPs was the ComRes poll showing only he could save the backbenchers from unemployment and the party from a damaging defeat. Now, that "evidence" is different. There's no Boris Bounce - even delivering Brexit doesn't deliver a majority.

    One area where the pro-Johnson people have it right - if he goes to the country without having delivered Brexit on 31/10 the Conservative survivors will be the fifth largest group in the new Commons.

    The poll actually had asked about Boris being PM and taking us out of the EU with No Deal, in which case it had Tories 22%, Labour 21%, LD 12%, Brexit Party 7%. No Deal was not mentioned in previous questions.

    If the question is just about Brexit being delivered it is Tories 23%, Labour 21%, LD 13%, Brexit Party 8%.

    If however the question is about Boris extending then it is Tories 13%, Labour 21%, LD 14%, Brexit Party 18%. If Hunt extends it is Tories 14%, Labour 21%,
    LDs 13%, Brexit Party 19%.

    However in each case an absurdly high 17 to 20% of voters are undecided reducing what can be read into them


    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Britain-Elects-Final-Tables-180719.pdf
    Maybe I'm being an idiot, but in the case of No Deal Brexit, the combined total for Con/Lab/LD/BXP is just 65%. Who gets the other 35%?
    There is a huge number of undecideds and don't knows in that poll.


    The poll also shows if the Tories deliver Brexit by the next election it will be Tories v Labour with the LDs 3rd and Brexit Party 4th, if however the Tories extend again and do not deliver Brexit by the next election it will be Labour v Brexit Party with the LDs 3rd and the Tories 4th
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    edited July 2019
    Had an interesting encounter with the NHS today - a bout of vertigo (new to me) left me on the kitchen floor in a pool of blood from a head wound. Called 111, got advice, then a friend took me to Guildford A&E.

    + Impressive 111 service - answered in a minute, thorough discussion, recommended A&E within an hour
    + Really careful, thorough examination to check it wasn't a signal for anything urgent, cleaning of the wound and gluing up.
    + Friendly, tactful, cheerful clinical staff
    - Loooong waits - always take a book to hospital. 5 hours in total, of which maybe 25 minutes actually seeing anyone.
    - Cynical, indifferent receptionist

    Overall, still pretty good! Need to get my GP to explore other causes, ears being the obvious.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    rcs1000 said:

    Practically all Boris's proposed cabinet ministers previously resigned in disgrace. How can you bring Williamson back if he really was responsible for the Huaewei leak? How can you bring back Patel, who was fired for lying to the Prime Minister? And neither IDS nor Zac Goldsmith has ever done anything notably successful.

    (Except in the latter case resigning and then losing a by-election. Cock.)

    Goldsmith (and Gove) are the two Tories who are really rated well by environmmentalists across party. They actually do take an interest in it, and not just their careers.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,820

    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864

    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    Or not.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-rows-back-on-united-states-of-europe/
    Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen said she no longer advocates for the European Union to become a federal state after previously calling for the bloc to turn into "the United States of Europe."

    In an interview with a group of European newspapers published Thursday, she said her dream of a federalized EU had become "more mature and more realistic."


    "In the European Union, there is unity in diversity," she added. "That's different from federalism. I think that's the right way."

  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,133
    Nigelb said:

    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864

    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    Or not.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-rows-back-on-united-states-of-europe/
    Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen said she no longer advocates for the European Union to become a federal state after previously calling for the bloc to turn into "the United States of Europe."

    In an interview with a group of European newspapers published Thursday, she said her dream of a federalized EU had become "more mature and more realistic."


    "In the European Union, there is unity in diversity," she added. "That's different from federalism. I think that's the right way."

    Heard it all before.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,369

    Had an interesting encounter with the NHS today - a bout of vertigo (new to me) left me on the kitchen floor in a pool of blood from a head wound. Called 111, got advice, then a friend took me to Guildford A&E.

    + Impressive 111 service - answered in a minute, thorough discussion, recommended A&E within an hour
    + Really careful, thorough examination to check it wasn't a signal for anything urgent, cleaning of the wound and gluing up.
    + Friendly, tactful, cheerful clinical staff
    - Loooong waits - always take a book to hospital. 5 hours in total, of which maybe 25 minutes actually seeing anyone.
    - Cynical, indifferent receptionist

    Overall, still pretty good! Need to get my GP to explore other causes, ears being the obvious.

    It is very alarming Nick. My wife suffers from labyrinthitis, which has the same effect.

    However, she has medication for it and it has been very successful
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,369

    rcs1000 said:

    Practically all Boris's proposed cabinet ministers previously resigned in disgrace. How can you bring Williamson back if he really was responsible for the Huaewei leak? How can you bring back Patel, who was fired for lying to the Prime Minister? And neither IDS nor Zac Goldsmith has ever done anything notably successful.

    (Except in the latter case resigning and then losing a by-election. Cock.)

    Goldsmith (and Gove) are the two Tories who are really rated well by environmmentalists across party. They actually do take an interest in it, and not just their careers.
    Absolutely agree with you on both of them
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,133

    Had an interesting encounter with the NHS today - a bout of vertigo (new to me) left me on the kitchen floor in a pool of blood from a head wound. Called 111, got advice, then a friend took me to Guildford A&E.

    + Impressive 111 service - answered in a minute, thorough discussion, recommended A&E within an hour
    + Really careful, thorough examination to check it wasn't a signal for anything urgent, cleaning of the wound and gluing up.
    + Friendly, tactful, cheerful clinical staff
    - Loooong waits - always take a book to hospital. 5 hours in total, of which maybe 25 minutes actually seeing anyone.
    - Cynical, indifferent receptionist

    Overall, still pretty good! Need to get my GP to explore other causes, ears being the obvious.

    Sorry to hear that - take care and don't overdo things.
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    rcs1000 said:

    Meanwhile over the pond, Susan Collins, Maine's Republican Senator, has seen her favourability collapse. She used to be the most popular Senator in the US, enjoying +40 approval ratings.

    She's now getting negative numbers, and (apparently) is second only to Mitch McConnell in terms of unpopularity. Given that Maine is a pretty Blue state, expect that state to flip next year.

    Any particular reason why? Backing Kavanaugh?
  • Options
    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Nigelb said:

    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864

    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    Or not.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-rows-back-on-united-states-of-europe/
    Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen said she no longer advocates for the European Union to become a federal state after previously calling for the bloc to turn into "the United States of Europe."

    In an interview with a group of European newspapers published Thursday, she said her dream of a federalized EU had become "more mature and more realistic."

    "In the European Union, there is unity in diversity," she added. "That's different from federalism. I think that's the right way."

    Just possibly the EU understands federations less well than the UK. After all, we gave rise to four of them

    USA
    Canada
    Australia
    India

    and we co-wrote the constitution of the Federal German Republic after WW2.

    Off the top of my head, the only other federation I can think of in Europe is Switzerland.

    Federations can be more de-centralised and devolved than the EU is on some things. For instance I don't think the US federal government tells the states what time zone they must adopt. So, if Minnesota wanted to move an hour ahead in the winter months and have permanent summer time, it could do so.

    Vermont and New Hampshire are pretty different/diverse, despite being next door. Read some of Bill Bryson's books.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167

    Had an interesting encounter with the NHS today - a bout of vertigo (new to me) left me on the kitchen floor in a pool of blood from a head wound. Called 111, got advice, then a friend took me to Guildford A&E.

    + Impressive 111 service - answered in a minute, thorough discussion, recommended A&E within an hour
    + Really careful, thorough examination to check it wasn't a signal for anything urgent, cleaning of the wound and gluing up.
    + Friendly, tactful, cheerful clinical staff
    - Loooong waits - always take a book to hospital. 5 hours in total, of which maybe 25 minutes actually seeing anyone.
    - Cynical, indifferent receptionist

    Overall, still pretty good! Need to get my GP to explore other causes, ears being the obvious.

    Sorry to hear that Nick but glad to see it is now being treated
  • Options
    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    One or two individuals wittering on about the "Boris Bounce" and how only Boris can lead the Conservatives to a GE majority should perhaps look at how the picture has changed with ComRes during the leadership campaign.

    One of the big factors establishing Johnson's advantage was the poll published on 11th June showing with Boris as leader the Conservatives romping to a 140-seat landslide majority.

    Next time the question was asked that figure had fallen to a 40 majority.

    When ComRes asked the question this week "Boris Johnson is Prime Minister and Brexit was delivered on 31st October", the Conservative lead is just three points and the Commons is again deadlocked with Conservatives needing DUP support once again.

    So that's a 140 seat majority gone in a month - I also suspect one of the reasons Boris attracted so much support among MPs was the ComRes poll showing only he could save the backbenchers from unemployment and the party from a damaging defeat. Now, that "evidence" is different. There's no Boris Bounce - even delivering Brexit doesn't deliver a majority.

    One area where the pro-Johnson people have it right - if he goes to the country without having delivered Brexit on 31/10 the Conservative survivors will be the fifth largest group in the new Commons.

    The poll actually had asked about Boris being PM and taking us out of the EU with No Deal, in which case it had Tories 22%, Labour 21%, LD 12%, Brexit Party 7%. No Deal was not mentioned in previous questions.

    If the question is just about Brexit being delivered it is Tories 23%, Labour 21%, LD 13%, Brexit Party 8%.

    If however the question is about Boris extending then it is Tories 13%, Labour 21%, LD 14%, Brexit Party 18%. If Hunt extends it is Tories 14%, Labour 21%,
    LDs 13%, Brexit Party 19%.

    However in each case an absurdly high 17 to 20% of voters are undecided reducing what can be read into them


    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Britain-Elects-Final-Tables-180719.pdf
    Maybe I'm being an idiot, but in the case of No Deal Brexit, the combined total for Con/Lab/LD/BXP is just 65%. Who gets the other 35%?
    There is a huge number of undecideds and don't knows in that poll.

    The poll also shows if the Tories deliver Brexit by the next election it will be Tories v Labour with the LDs 3rd and Brexit Party 4th, if however the Tories extend again and do not deliver Brexit by the next election it will be Labour v Brexit Party with the LDs 3rd and the Tories 4th
    I no longer care which it is although I do care that we get fair voting aka PR out of this mess. That might need Lab and Con to sink below Lib and Brexit in the percentage vote so that Lab and Con >200-250 seats is widely seen as absurd.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    HYUFD said:

    There is a huge number of undecideds and don't knows in that poll.


    The poll also shows if the Tories deliver Brexit by the next election it will be Tories v Labour with the LDs 3rd and Brexit Party 4th, if however the Tories extend again and do not deliver Brexit by the next election it will be Labour v Brexit Party with the LDs 3rd and the Tories 4th

    We don't know what will happen post-Brexit, because we don't know what the economy will be like post-Brexit.

    It's entirely possible that No Deal Brexit will happen without a hitch, the world economy will continue to grow nicely, and we all breath a sigh of relief. Under these circumstances, I have little doubt that the Conservative Party under Johnson will lead handily in the polls.

    It's also possible that you get the double whammy of a world economic slowdown, and significant UK-specific disruption. Under those circumstances, whatever people might be saying now, the Conservative Party will be blamed, and will blamed hard.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    edited July 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Time for a quick look at some European polling.

    Ukraine vote in their parliamentary election tomorrow and it looks certain Servant of the People, the party of President Zelenskiy, will win close to if not an actual majority, You need 213 seats in the Rada for a majority and with the party polling in the high 40s, Dmytro Razumkov will only need a few extra seats to govern and may well govern alone.

    In Germany, the latest Forsa poll has put the CDU/CSU on 27% with the Greens on 24%. Few changes in the latest Swedish and Austrian polls - in the former, the Social Democrats have an 8 point lead over the Swedish Democrats and the Moderates while in Austria the OVP continues to enjoy a huge lead over the SPD and the FPO.

    Finally, a rare poll from Ireland while has Fianna Fail enjoying a 4 point lead over Fine Gael (30-26). SinnFein are third on 14% but the Greens have slumped to 7%. Labour has 5%. The next Irish GE is due next year.


    Germany does not vote again until 2021.

    Italy though may have an autumn general election
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/18/italys-salvini-says-elections-still-possible-after-summer-break.html

    Latest Italian poll has it Lega Nord 35.9%, PD 21.6%, M5S 17.4%, FI 8.2%

    https://scenaripolitici.com/2019/07/sondaggio-ipsos-20-luglio-2019.html
    It is worth remembering that while Salvini can pull the plug on the M5S coalition, he cannot by himself cause a General Election in Italy.

    M5S + PD have more than 50% of the seats in the Italian parliament, and Beppe Grillo has been publicly increasing rude about Salvini - unhappy that his party (which substantially outpolled the LN last tiime) is not getting credit. It is possible that Salvini sends himself back into opposition rather than getting his GE.
    At the last election Salvini's rightwing coalition with Berlusconi got 265 seats, more than Five Star on 227.

    So Grillo's party can only stay in power without Salvini and without another election with the 3rd placed PD who got 112 seats (122 for the centre left coalition)
    yes but Salvini would still be leader of the largest block in Parliament
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146

    Nigelb said:

    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864

    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    Or not.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-rows-back-on-united-states-of-europe/
    Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen said she no longer advocates for the European Union to become a federal state after previously calling for the bloc to turn into "the United States of Europe."

    In an interview with a group of European newspapers published Thursday, she said her dream of a federalized EU had become "more mature and more realistic."

    "In the European Union, there is unity in diversity," she added. "That's different from federalism. I think that's the right way."

    Just possibly the EU understands federations less well than the UK. After all, we gave rise to four of them

    USA
    Canada
    Australia
    India
    Which "we" is that?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    Couldn't they be "progressive" and do a job share? :D
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    edited July 2019
    Sounds a lot closer than Boris v Hunt certainly, sounds like a very narrow Swinson win similar to 2007 when Clegg beat Huhne 50.6% to 49.4%
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,015

    Nigelb said:

    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864

    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    Or not.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-rows-back-on-united-states-of-europe/
    Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen said she no longer advocates for the European Union to become a federal state after previously calling for the bloc to turn into "the United States of Europe."

    In an interview with a group of European newspapers published Thursday, she said her dream of a federalized EU had become "more mature and more realistic."

    "In the European Union, there is unity in diversity," she added. "That's different from federalism. I think that's the right way."

    Just possibly the EU understands federations less well than the UK. After all, we gave rise to four of them

    USA
    Canada
    Australia
    India

    and we co-wrote the constitution of the Federal German Republic after WW2.

    Off the top of my head, the only other federation I can think of in Europe is Switzerland.

    Federations can be more de-centralised and devolved than the EU is on some things. For instance I don't think the US federal government tells the states what time zone they must adopt. So, if Minnesota wanted to move an hour ahead in the winter months and have permanent summer time, it could do so.

    Vermont and New Hampshire are pretty different/diverse, despite being next door. Read some of Bill Bryson's books.
    The cultural change from BC to Alberta is wondrous to behold. You would think they were different countries entirely.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    alex. said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Raab or Priti Patel or Javid more likely I suspect.

    Rory Stewart now has more chance of being next LD leader than next Tory leader, could defect as Chuka has left Labour for the yellows

    Rory’s not going to defect
    Anyway, why would a leading light in the Labour movement defecting to the LibDems prompt an old school Conservative to do the same?

    Genuine question: was Chuka ever a leading light in Labour except in his media profiles?

    I don’t think he was in Cabinet (if he was I don’t remember him!), he never ran for leader as he pulled out after a few days, he didn’t bring many people along with him when he defected and now he is marooned in the Lib Dems
    He was shadow Business Secretary under Ed M
    What a pinnacle for his career
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068

    Federations can be more de-centralised and devolved than the EU is on some things. For instance I don't think the US federal government tells the states what time zone they must adopt. So, if Minnesota wanted to move an hour ahead in the winter months and have permanent summer time, it could do so.

    Actually, the US federal government does mandate that!

    Hence both Florida and California have passed referendums for abolishing summertime/wintertime, but are unable to do it until federal legislation is passed.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,019
    edited July 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    Practically all Boris's proposed cabinet ministers previously resigned in disgrace. How can you bring Williamson back if he really was responsible for the Huaewei leak? How can you bring back Patel, who was fired for lying to the Prime Minister? And neither IDS nor Zac Goldsmith has ever done anything notably successful.

    (Except in the latter case resigning and then losing a by-election. Cock.)

    I don't for a second believe Williamson was responsible for the Huaewei leak. May was incredibly keen to ensure there was no further investigation other than her private little witch hunt. That doesn't mean Williamson wasn't a crap defence secretary, just that what they eventually got him for was a load of BS.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    edited July 2019
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864

    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    Or not.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-rows-back-on-united-states-of-europe/
    Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen said she no longer advocates for the European Union to become a federal state after previously calling for the bloc to turn into "the United States of Europe."

    In an interview with a group of European newspapers published Thursday, she said her dream of a federalized EU had become "more mature and more realistic."

    "In the European Union, there is unity in diversity," she added. "That's different from federalism. I think that's the right way."

    Just possibly the EU understands federations less well than the UK. After all, we gave rise to four of them

    USA
    Canada
    Australia
    India

    and we co-wrote the constitution of the Federal German Republic after WW2.

    Off the top of my head, the only other federation I can think of in Europe is Switzerland.

    Federations can be more de-centralised and devolved than the EU is on some things. For instance I don't think the US federal government tells the states what time zone they must adopt. So, if Minnesota wanted to move an hour ahead in the winter months and have permanent summer time, it could do so.

    Vermont and New Hampshire are pretty different/diverse, despite being next door. Read some of Bill Bryson's books.
    The cultural change from BC to Alberta is wondrous to behold. You would think they were different countries entirely.
    Alberta is more like Wyoming or Montana than the rest of Canada and by far the most conservative Canadian province
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Time for a quick look at some European polling.

    Ukraine vote in their parliamentary election tomorrow and it looks certain Servant of the People, the party of President Zelenskiy, will win close to if not an actual majority, You need 213 seats in the Rada for a majority and with the party polling in the high 40s, Dmytro Razumkov will only need a few extra seats to govern and may well govern alone.

    In Germany, the latest Forsa poll has put the CDU/CSU on 27% with the Greens on 24%. Few changes in the latest Swedish and Austrian polls - in the former, the Social Democrats have an 8 point lead over the Swedish Democrats and the Moderates while in Austria the OVP continues to enjoy a huge lead over the SPD and the FPO.

    Finally, a rare poll from Ireland while has Fianna Fail enjoying a 4 point lead over Fine Gael (30-26). SinnFein are third on 14% but the Greens have slumped to 7%. Labour has 5%. The next Irish GE is due next year.


    Germany does not vote again until 2021.

    Italy though may have an autumn general election
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/18/italys-salvini-says-elections-still-possible-after-summer-break.html

    Latest Italian poll has it Lega Nord 35.9%, PD 21.6%, M5S 17.4%, FI 8.2%

    https://scenaripolitici.com/2019/07/sondaggio-ipsos-20-luglio-2019.html
    It is worth remembering that while Salvini can pull the plug on the M5S coalition, he cannot by himself cause a General Election in Italy.

    M5S + PD have more than 50% of the seats in the Italian parliament, and Beppe Grillo has been publicly increasing rude about Salvini - unhappy that his party (which substantially outpolled the LN last tiime) is not getting credit. It is possible that Salvini sends himself back into opposition rather than getting his GE.
    At the last election Salvini's rightwing coalition with Berlusconi got 265 seats, more than Five Star on 227.

    So Grillo's party can only stay in power without Salvini and without another election with the 3rd placed PD who got 112 seats (122 for the centre left coalition)
    yes but Salvini would still be leader of the largest block in Parliament
    Salvini would not be in power, and there would not be an Autumn election if M5S and PD decide to go into coalition.

    I think that is at least as likely as an election. Simply, M5S doesn't want an election where they lose half their deputies.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,015

    rcs1000 said:

    Practically all Boris's proposed cabinet ministers previously resigned in disgrace. How can you bring Williamson back if he really was responsible for the Huaewei leak? How can you bring back Patel, who was fired for lying to the Prime Minister? And neither IDS nor Zac Goldsmith has ever done anything notably successful.

    (Except in the latter case resigning and then losing a by-election. Cock.)

    I don't for a second believe Williamson was responsible for the Huaewei leak. May was incredibly keen to ensure there was no further investigation other than her private little witch hunt. That doesn't mean Williamson wasn't a crap defence secretary, just tat what they eventually git him for was a load of BS.
    I thought it was his refusal to cooperate or turn over evidence? A strange way for someone to behave.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Practically all Boris's proposed cabinet ministers previously resigned in disgrace. How can you bring Williamson back if he really was responsible for the Huaewei leak? How can you bring back Patel, who was fired for lying to the Prime Minister? And neither IDS nor Zac Goldsmith has ever done anything notably successful.

    (Except in the latter case resigning and then losing a by-election. Cock.)

    I don't for a second believe Williamson was responsible for the Huaewei leak. May was incredibly keen to ensure there was no further investigation other than her private little witch hunt. That doesn't mean Williamson wasn't a crap defence secretary, just tat what they eventually git him for was a load of BS.
    I thought it was his refusal to cooperate or turn over evidence? A strange way for someone to behave.
    Also, didn't he have a 20 minute phone call with the journalist who wrote the story?
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,019
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Practically all Boris's proposed cabinet ministers previously resigned in disgrace. How can you bring Williamson back if he really was responsible for the Huaewei leak? How can you bring back Patel, who was fired for lying to the Prime Minister? And neither IDS nor Zac Goldsmith has ever done anything notably successful.

    (Except in the latter case resigning and then losing a by-election. Cock.)

    I don't for a second believe Williamson was responsible for the Huaewei leak. May was incredibly keen to ensure there was no further investigation other than her private little witch hunt. That doesn't mean Williamson wasn't a crap defence secretary, just tat what they eventually git him for was a load of BS.
    I thought it was his refusal to cooperate or turn over evidence? A strange way for someone to behave.
    Not really given they wanted his phone which would probably have shown all the back stabbing he had been doing behind May's back. It strikes me that was the real reason for her deciding to use him as the scape goat.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris considering David Davis as Foreign Secretary the Telegraph Reports alongside Michael Fallon, with Hancock a late contender for Chancellor with Rees-Mogg as Chief Secretary to the Treasury.


    Hunt and IDS both contenders for Deputy PM. Penny Mordaunt expected to stay as Defence Secretary with Gove as Health Secretary and Zac Goldsmith Environment Secretary if Hancock becomes Chancellor ahead of Javid.


    Jake Berry tipped for Business to replace Greg Clark along with
    Liz Truss and Dominic Raab likely to replace Gauke at Justice. Priti Patel and Cleverly both tipped for party chairman (though Patel also rumoured to be Fox's replacement at International Trade). Gavin Williamson as Leader of the Commons or Transport Secretary also looks possible.


    Jo Johnson a possible Education Secretary and John Whittingdale possibly returning as Culture Secretary.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/19/david-davis-tipped-shock-cabinet-comeback-boris-johnson/


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/20/boris-johnson-will-do-first-24-hours-prime-minister/

    Team of Has Beens.

    Zac Goldsmith? JHC.
    Priti Patel? JHC.
    Gavin Williamson? JHC.
    IDS? JHC.

    Mind you, International Trade would be an excellent opportunity for Ms Patel to run a parallel foreign policy that she could then lie about.
    JHC?
  • Options
    franklynfranklyn Posts: 297
    And what role will Grayling have in the new cabinet; clearly being utterly useless does not disqualify
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Meanwhile over the pond, Susan Collins, Maine's Republican Senator, has seen her favourability collapse. She used to be the most popular Senator in the US, enjoying +40 approval ratings.

    She's now getting negative numbers, and (apparently) is second only to Mitch McConnell in terms of unpopularity. Given that Maine is a pretty Blue state, expect that state to flip next year.

    Wasn’t she the flip senator on Kavanagh or something controversial?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    alex. said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Raab or Priti Patel or Javid more likely I suspect.

    Rory Stewart now has more chance of being next LD leader than next Tory leader, could defect as Chuka has left Labour for the yellows

    Rory’s not going to defect
    Anyway, why would a leading light in the Labour movement defecting to the LibDems prompt an old school Conservative to do the same?

    Genuine question: was Chuka ever a leading light in Labour except in his media profiles?

    I don’t think he was in Cabinet (if he was I don’t remember him!), he never ran for leader as he pulled out after a few days, he didn’t bring many people along with him when he defected and now he is marooned in the Lib Dems
    He was shadow Business Secretary under Ed M
    What a pinnacle for his career
    Chuka shadowed Dr Cable in the coalition... And said lots of usefully embarassing things about both him and Lib-Dems. :D
  • Options

    rcs1000 said:

    Practically all Boris's proposed cabinet ministers previously resigned in disgrace. How can you bring Williamson back if he really was responsible for the Huaewei leak? How can you bring back Patel, who was fired for lying to the Prime Minister? And neither IDS nor Zac Goldsmith has ever done anything notably successful.

    (Except in the latter case resigning and then losing a by-election. Cock.)

    I don't for a second believe Williamson was responsible for the Huaewei leak. May was incredibly keen to ensure there was no further investigation other than her private little witch hunt. That doesn't mean Williamson wasn't a crap defence secretary, just that what they eventually got him for was a load of BS.
    Nonsense. It was an open and shut case (or, given it's Williamson, an open and sh*t case).

    A very short list of suspects (as so few were in the meeting). Williamson is the one who didn't cooperate, and when they did get his 'phone records, who'd he been on the blower with at the crucial time... the journo who broke the story.

    Everything else is ludicrous conspiracy theory based on petulant denials by a kid who got caught with his hand in the cookie jar and chocolate smeared all over his face.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    One or two individuals wittering on about the "Boris Bounce" and how only Boris can lead the Conservatives to a GE majority should perhaps look at how the picture has changed with ComRes during the leadership campaign.

    One of the big factors establishing Johnson's advantage was the poll published on 11th June showing with Boris as leader the Conservatives romping to a 140-seat landslide majority.

    Next time the question was asked that figure had fallen to a 40 majority.

    When ComRes asked the question this week "Boris Johnson is Prime Minister and Brexit was delivered on 31st October", the Conservative lead is just three points and the Commons is again deadlocked with Conservatives needing DUP support once again.

    So that's a 140 seat majority gone in a month - I also suspect one of the reasons Boris attracted so much support among MPs was the ComRes poll showing only he could save the backbenchers from unemployment and the party from a damaging defeat. Now, that "evidence" is different. There's no Boris Bounce - even delivering Brexit doesn't deliver a majority.

    One area where the pro-Johnson people have it right - if he goes to the country without having delivered Brexit on 31/10 the Conservative survivors will be the fifth largest group in the new Commons.

    The poll actually had asked about Boris being PM and taking us out of the EU with No Deal, in which case it had Tories 22%, Labour 21%, LD 12%, Brexit Party 7%. No Deal was not mentioned in previous questions.

    If the question is just about Brexit being delivered it is Tories 23%, Labour 21%, LD 13%, Brexit Party 8%.

    If however the question is about Boris extending then it is Tories 13%, Labour 21%, LD 14%, Brexit Party 18%. If Hunt extends it is Tories 14%, Labour 21%,
    LDs 13%, Brexit Party 19%.

    However in each case an absurdly high 17 to 20% of voters are undecided reducing what can be read into them


    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Britain-Elects-Final-Tables-180719.pdf
    Maybe I'm being an idiot, but in the case of No Deal Brexit, the combined total for Con/Lab/LD/BXP is just 65%. Who gets the other 35%?
    With reduced food supplies drastic steps must be taken
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @NickPalmer I’ve had labyrinthitis. Dizziness is very disorienting and initially distressing. If this is new for you, be prepared for it to affect you in unexpected ways. It’s amazing how balance connects with so much that you do.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Why Boris Johnson might gamble on an election
    Matthew Parris

    The Tory rebellion against no-deal is likely to bring him down anyway so the new PM should get on to the front foot" (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/there-can-be-no-boris-honeymoon-for-remainers-m0jrqxkp5
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Had an interesting encounter with the NHS today - a bout of vertigo (new to me) left me on the kitchen floor in a pool of blood from a head wound. Called 111, got advice, then a friend took me to Guildford A&E.

    + Impressive 111 service - answered in a minute, thorough discussion, recommended A&E within an hour
    + Really careful, thorough examination to check it wasn't a signal for anything urgent, cleaning of the wound and gluing up.
    + Friendly, tactful, cheerful clinical staff
    - Loooong waits - always take a book to hospital. 5 hours in total, of which maybe 25 minutes actually seeing anyone.
    - Cynical, indifferent receptionist

    Overall, still pretty good! Need to get my GP to explore other causes, ears being the obvious.

    Hope all well. Vertigo is unusual
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Nigelb said:

    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864

    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    Or not.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-rows-back-on-united-states-of-europe/
    Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen said she no longer advocates for the European Union to become a federal state after previously calling for the bloc to turn into "the United States of Europe."

    In an interview with a group of European newspapers published Thursday, she said her dream of a federalized EU had become "more mature and more realistic."

    "In the European Union, there is unity in diversity," she added. "That's different from federalism. I think that's the right way."

    Just possibly the EU understands federations less well than the UK. After all, we gave rise to four of them

    USA
    Canada
    Australia
    India

    and we co-wrote the constitution of the Federal German Republic after WW2.

    Off the top of my head, the only other federation I can think of in Europe is Switzerland.

    Federations can be more de-centralised and devolved than the EU is on some things. For instance I don't think the US federal government tells the states what time zone they must adopt. So, if Minnesota wanted to move an hour ahead in the winter months and have permanent summer time, it could do so.

    Vermont and New Hampshire are pretty different/diverse, despite being next door. Read some of Bill Bryson's books.
    Switzerland is a confederation not a federation I believe
  • Options
    franklyn said:

    And what role will Grayling have in the new cabinet; clearly being utterly useless does not disqualify

    I suspect Grayling will make way. May couldn't get rid as she couldn't afford to be seen to lose let more people. Johnson can reshape it, and I don't really see a case for Grayling based on standing in the party (and obviously not on ability to do a job).
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920

    Had an interesting encounter with the NHS today - a bout of vertigo (new to me) left me on the kitchen floor in a pool of blood from a head wound. Called 111, got advice, then a friend took me to Guildford A&E.

    + Impressive 111 service - answered in a minute, thorough discussion, recommended A&E within an hour
    + Really careful, thorough examination to check it wasn't a signal for anything urgent, cleaning of the wound and gluing up.
    + Friendly, tactful, cheerful clinical staff
    - Loooong waits - always take a book to hospital. 5 hours in total, of which maybe 25 minutes actually seeing anyone.
    - Cynical, indifferent receptionist

    Overall, still pretty good! Need to get my GP to explore other causes, ears being the obvious.

    Get well soon Nick. :)
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446
    Lembit Opik would have been an old Estonian :)
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446
    Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864

    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    Or not.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-rows-back-on-united-states-of-europe/
    Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen said she no longer advocates for the European Union to become a federal state after previously calling for the bloc to turn into "the United States of Europe."

    In an interview with a group of European newspapers published Thursday, she said her dream of a federalized EU had become "more mature and more realistic."

    "In the European Union, there is unity in diversity," she added. "That's different from federalism. I think that's the right way."

    Just possibly the EU understands federations less well than the UK. After all, we gave rise to four of them

    USA
    Canada
    Australia
    India

    and we co-wrote the constitution of the Federal German Republic after WW2.

    Off the top of my head, the only other federation I can think of in Europe is Switzerland.

    Federations can be more de-centralised and devolved than the EU is on some things. For instance I don't think the US federal government tells the states what time zone they must adopt. So, if Minnesota wanted to move an hour ahead in the winter months and have permanent summer time, it could do so.

    Vermont and New Hampshire are pretty different/diverse, despite being next door. Read some of Bill Bryson's books.
    Switzerland is a confederation not a federation I believe
    Yes, the Latin is Confoederatio Helvetica, which gave rise to the Swiss "number plate" abbreviation CH.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Lembit Opik would have been an old Estonian :)

    My great-grandmother was born in Estonia. I can't understand a word of the language though.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446

    Had an interesting encounter with the NHS today - a bout of vertigo (new to me) left me on the kitchen floor in a pool of blood from a head wound. Called 111, got advice, then a friend took me to Guildford A&E.

    + Impressive 111 service - answered in a minute, thorough discussion, recommended A&E within an hour
    + Really careful, thorough examination to check it wasn't a signal for anything urgent, cleaning of the wound and gluing up.
    + Friendly, tactful, cheerful clinical staff
    - Loooong waits - always take a book to hospital. 5 hours in total, of which maybe 25 minutes actually seeing anyone.
    - Cynical, indifferent receptionist

    Overall, still pretty good! Need to get my GP to explore other causes, ears being the obvious.

    Get well soon, Nick!
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446
    AndyJS said:

    Lembit Opik would have been an old Estonian :)

    My great-grandmother was born in Estonia. I can't understand a word of the language though.
    Closely related to Finnish, and more distantly to Hungarian.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Had an interesting encounter with the NHS today - a bout of vertigo (new to me) left me on the kitchen floor in a pool of blood from a head wound. Called 111, got advice, then a friend took me to Guildford A&E.

    + Impressive 111 service - answered in a minute, thorough discussion, recommended A&E within an hour
    + Really careful, thorough examination to check it wasn't a signal for anything urgent, cleaning of the wound and gluing up.
    + Friendly, tactful, cheerful clinical staff
    - Loooong waits - always take a book to hospital. 5 hours in total, of which maybe 25 minutes actually seeing anyone.
    - Cynical, indifferent receptionist

    Overall, still pretty good! Need to get my GP to explore other causes, ears being the obvious.

    Sorry to hear that. I can empathise , having suffered from Meniere's Disease for several years. The loss of balance is particularly disorientating.
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    Had an interesting encounter with the NHS today - a bout of vertigo (new to me) left me on the kitchen floor in a pool of blood from a head wound. Called 111, got advice, then a friend took me to Guildford A&E.

    + Impressive 111 service - answered in a minute, thorough discussion, recommended A&E within an hour
    + Really careful, thorough examination to check it wasn't a signal for anything urgent, cleaning of the wound and gluing up.
    + Friendly, tactful, cheerful clinical staff
    - Loooong waits - always take a book to hospital. 5 hours in total, of which maybe 25 minutes actually seeing anyone.
    - Cynical, indifferent receptionist

    Overall, still pretty good! Need to get my GP to explore other causes, ears being the obvious.

    Postural hypotension? Certainly a common problem at our age. Not very dangerous, as long as you find something or someone to grab on to! Best wishes.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,019

    rcs1000 said:

    Practically all Boris's proposed cabinet ministers previously resigned in disgrace. How can you bring Williamson back if he really was responsible for the Huaewei leak? How can you bring back Patel, who was fired for lying to the Prime Minister? And neither IDS nor Zac Goldsmith has ever done anything notably successful.

    (Except in the latter case resigning and then losing a by-election. Cock.)

    I don't for a second believe Williamson was responsible for the Huaewei leak. May was incredibly keen to ensure there was no further investigation other than her private little witch hunt. That doesn't mean Williamson wasn't a crap defence secretary, just that what they eventually got him for was a load of BS.
    Nonsense. It was an open and shut case (or, given it's Williamson, an open and sh*t case).

    A very short list of suspects (as so few were in the meeting). Williamson is the one who didn't cooperate, and when they did get his 'phone records, who'd he been on the blower with at the crucial time... the journo who broke the story.

    Everything else is ludicrous conspiracy theory based on petulant denials by a kid who got caught with his hand in the cookie jar and chocolate smeared all over his face.
    In which case why did they refuse to get the police involved in spite of it being a criminal act. And in spite of Williamson himself requesting it.

    Seems you will believe any old bullshit if it suits you.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris considering David Davis as Foreign Secretary the Telegraph Reports alongside Michael Fallon, with Hancock a late contender for Chancellor with Rees-Mogg as Chief Secretary to the Treasury.


    Hunt and IDS both contenders for Deputy PM. Penny Mordaunt expected to stay as Defence Secretary with Gove as Health Secretary and Zac Goldsmith Environment Secretary if Hancock becomes Chancellor ahead of Javid.


    Jake Berry tipped for Business to replace Greg Clark along with
    Liz Truss and Dominic Raab likely to replace Gauke at Justice. Priti Patel and Cleverly both tipped for party chairman (though Patel also rumoured to be Fox's replacement at International Trade). Gavin Williamson as Leader of the Commons or Transport Secretary also looks possible.


    Jo Johnson a possible Education Secretary and John Whittingdale possibly returning as Culture Secretary.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/19/david-davis-tipped-shock-cabinet-comeback-boris-johnson/


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/20/boris-johnson-will-do-first-24-hours-prime-minister/

    Team of Has Beens.

    Zac Goldsmith? JHC.
    Priti Patel? JHC.
    Gavin Williamson? JHC.
    IDS? JHC.

    Mind you, International Trade would be an excellent opportunity for Ms Patel to run a parallel foreign policy that she could then lie about.
    JHC?
    Jesus H Christ.
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    AndyJS said:

    "Why Boris Johnson might gamble on an election
    Matthew Parris

    The Tory rebellion against no-deal is likely to bring him down anyway so the new PM should get on to the front foot" (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/there-can-be-no-boris-honeymoon-for-remainers-m0jrqxkp5

    Unfortunately for him, which ever way he moves, he's going to be May mk 2 by the end of the summer.
  • Options
    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    GIN1138 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    alex. said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Raab or Priti Patel or Javid more likely I suspect.
    Rory Stewart now has more chance of being next LD leader than next Tory leader, could defect as Chuka has left Labour for the yellows

    Rory’s not going to defect
    Anyway, why would a leading light in the Labour movement defecting to the LibDems prompt an old school Conservative to do the same?
    Genuine question: was Chuka ever a leading light in Labour except in his media profiles?
    I don’t think he was in Cabinet (if he was I don’t remember him!), he never ran for leader as he pulled out after a few days, he didn’t bring many people along with him when he defected and now he is marooned in the Lib Dems
    He was shadow Business Secretary under Ed M
    What a pinnacle for his career
    Chuka shadowed Dr Cable in the coalition... And said lots of usefully embarassing things about both him and Lib-Dems. :D
    I expect he was told what he had to say by the Labour thought police and spin doctors. He seems to be much happier nowadays.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    rcs1000 said:

    Practically all Boris's proposed cabinet ministers previously resigned in disgrace. How can you bring Williamson back if he really was responsible for the Huaewei leak? How can you bring back Patel, who was fired for lying to the Prime Minister? And neither IDS nor Zac Goldsmith has ever done anything notably successful.

    (Except in the latter case resigning and then losing a by-election. Cock.)

    I don't for a second believe Williamson was responsible for the Huaewei leak. May was incredibly keen to ensure there was no further investigation other than her private little witch hunt. That doesn't mean Williamson wasn't a crap defence secretary, just that what they eventually got him for was a load of BS.
    Nonsense. It was an open and shut case (or, given it's Williamson, an open and sh*t case).

    A very short list of suspects (as so few were in the meeting). Williamson is the one who didn't cooperate, and when they did get his 'phone records, who'd he been on the blower with at the crucial time... the journo who broke the story.

    Everything else is ludicrous conspiracy theory based on petulant denials by a kid who got caught with his hand in the cookie jar and chocolate smeared all over his face.
    In which case why did they refuse to get the police involved in spite of it being a criminal act. And in spite of Williamson himself requesting it.

    Seems you will believe any old bullshit if it suits you.
    Because you don’t get the police involved in politics. Yes this was a bad leak but sacking Williamson was a proportionate response.

    Sometimes things are as they seem to be
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Dadge said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Why Boris Johnson might gamble on an election
    Matthew Parris

    The Tory rebellion against no-deal is likely to bring him down anyway so the new PM should get on to the front foot" (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/there-can-be-no-boris-honeymoon-for-remainers-m0jrqxkp5

    Unfortunately for him, which ever way he moves, he's going to be May mk 2 by the end of the summer.
    He asked for it, so don’t feel any sympathy
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,019
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Practically all Boris's proposed cabinet ministers previously resigned in disgrace. How can you bring Williamson back if he really was responsible for the Huaewei leak? How can you bring back Patel, who was fired for lying to the Prime Minister? And neither IDS nor Zac Goldsmith has ever done anything notably successful.

    (Except in the latter case resigning and then losing a by-election. Cock.)

    I don't for a second believe Williamson was responsible for the Huaewei leak. May was incredibly keen to ensure there was no further investigation other than her private little witch hunt. That doesn't mean Williamson wasn't a crap defence secretary, just that what they eventually got him for was a load of BS.
    Nonsense. It was an open and shut case (or, given it's Williamson, an open and sh*t case).

    A very short list of suspects (as so few were in the meeting). Williamson is the one who didn't cooperate, and when they did get his 'phone records, who'd he been on the blower with at the crucial time... the journo who broke the story.

    Everything else is ludicrous conspiracy theory based on petulant denials by a kid who got caught with his hand in the cookie jar and chocolate smeared all over his face.
    In which case why did they refuse to get the police involved in spite of it being a criminal act. And in spite of Williamson himself requesting it.

    Seems you will believe any old bullshit if it suits you.
    Because you don’t get the police involved in politics. Yes this was a bad leak but sacking Williamson was a proportionate response.

    Sometimes things are as they seem to be
    This wasn't politics. It was a criminal act. Seems May was frightened they might actually uncover the truth.
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Dadge said:

    Had an interesting encounter with the NHS today - a bout of vertigo (new to me) left me on the kitchen floor in a pool of blood from a head wound. Called 111, got advice, then a friend took me to Guildford A&E.

    + Impressive 111 service - answered in a minute, thorough discussion, recommended A&E within an hour
    + Really careful, thorough examination to check it wasn't a signal for anything urgent, cleaning of the wound and gluing up.
    + Friendly, tactful, cheerful clinical staff
    - Loooong waits - always take a book to hospital. 5 hours in total, of which maybe 25 minutes actually seeing anyone.
    - Cynical, indifferent receptionist

    Overall, still pretty good! Need to get my GP to explore other causes, ears being the obvious.

    Postural hypotension? Certainly a common problem at our age. Not very dangerous, as long as you find something or someone to grab on to! Best wishes.
    Get well soon!

    Recommended A&E after an hour, or recommended going to A&E within the hour? I generally take the view that if you need to go to A&E you want to be doing it asap!
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited July 2019
    Re: Cabinet speculation in the Telegraph. Somebody earlier today was trying to describe the paper as Quality Press. It is difficult to reconcile the one with the other.

    That ultimately is why the supposedly serious press is so sh*t these days. They are quite prepared any speculation from any source as serious news, without any sensible analysis.
  • Options

    rcs1000 said:

    Practically all Boris's proposed cabinet ministers previously resigned in disgrace. How can you bring Williamson back if he really was responsible for the Huaewei leak? How can you bring back Patel, who was fired for lying to the Prime Minister? And neither IDS nor Zac Goldsmith has ever done anything notably successful.

    (Except in the latter case resigning and then losing a by-election. Cock.)

    I don't for a second believe Williamson was responsible for the Huaewei leak. May was incredibly keen to ensure there was no further investigation other than her private little witch hunt. That doesn't mean Williamson wasn't a crap defence secretary, just that what they eventually got him for was a load of BS.
    Nonsense. It was an open and shut case (or, given it's Williamson, an open and sh*t case).

    A very short list of suspects (as so few were in the meeting). Williamson is the one who didn't cooperate, and when they did get his 'phone records, who'd he been on the blower with at the crucial time... the journo who broke the story.

    Everything else is ludicrous conspiracy theory based on petulant denials by a kid who got caught with his hand in the cookie jar and chocolate smeared all over his face.
    In which case why did they refuse to get the police involved in spite of it being a criminal act. And in spite of Williamson himself requesting it.

    Seems you will believe any old bullshit if it suits you.
    Makes no odds to me either way - don't like him, don't like her. But I'm not a conspiracy theorist, and the evidence is the evidence. And it's not in the least bit surprising that May had no interest in dragging it out (or that Williamson knew that when he asked her to do so).
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Practically all Boris's proposed cabinet ministers previously resigned in disgrace. How can you bring Williamson back if he really was responsible for the Huaewei leak? How can you bring back Patel, who was fired for lying to the Prime Minister? And neither IDS nor Zac Goldsmith has ever done anything notably successful.

    (Except in the latter case resigning and then losing a by-election. Cock.)

    I don't for a second believe Williamson was responsible for the Huaewei leak. May was incredibly keen to ensure there was no further investigation other than her private little witch hunt. That doesn't mean Williamson wasn't a crap defence secretary, just that what they eventually got him for was a load of BS.
    Nonsense. It was an open and shut case (or, given it's Williamson, an open and sh*t case).

    A very short list of suspects (as so few were in the meeting). Williamson is the one who didn't cooperate, and when they did get his 'phone records, who'd he been on the blower with at the crucial time... the journo who broke the story.

    Everything else is ludicrous conspiracy theory based on petulant denials by a kid who got caught with his hand in the cookie jar and chocolate smeared all over his face.
    In which case why did they refuse to get the police involved in spite of it being a criminal act. And in spite of Williamson himself requesting it.

    Seems you will believe any old bullshit if it suits you.
    Because you don’t get the police involved in politics. Yes this was a bad leak but sacking Williamson was a proportionate response.

    Sometimes things are as they seem to be
    This wasn't politics. It was a criminal act. Seems May was frightened they might actually uncover the truth.
    Don't forget that in the age of recall elections, getting an MP prosecuted is a dangerous act - especially when your majority is already close to zero.
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    If he's brought back, maybe the police might take it upon themselves to instigate an investigation. That would be fun ;) At the very least there must be grave doubts that he would pass the necessary security clearance checks for any major roles.
  • Options
    MarxMarx Posts: 28
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Just listened to Any Questions late. Give the job of Labour leader to Jess Phillips. She'll walk it. She's head and shoulders better than the rest. As for Rory the Tory...Good photo. Looks like an early Cezanne

    I don't think Jess is perfect, but she would be a very strong leader and give the Tories a really hard time.

    Expect her to be expelled from the party before Christmas.
    She's a bit strident but she seems human honest and likeable. Such a contrast to Johnson and Corbyn
    After Conference in September and the resolutions are passed, then Phillips and a lot of others are going to be sitting in a CLP reselection process. Bets on Johnson lasting 2 weeks? Or Swinson or Davis becoming PM?
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,094
    I was under the impression that Jess was very popular in Yardley? Why would she be deselected?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068

    I was under the impression that Jess was very popular in Yardley? Why would she be deselected?

    Sadly, she failed the anti-semtism test.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    alex. said:

    Dadge said:


    Postural hypotension? Certainly a common problem at our age. Not very dangerous, as long as you find something or someone to grab on to! Best wishes.

    Get well soon!

    Recommended A&E after an hour, or recommended going to A&E within the hour? I generally take the view that if you need to go to A&E you want to be doing it asap!
    Thanks for the friendly comments! No, they said get there right away, and not more than an hour from now.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    edited July 2019
    justin124 said:



    Sorry to hear that. I can empathise , having suffered from Meniere's Disease for several years. The loss of balance is particularly disorientating.

    Thanks to everyone for their good wishes, and sympathies to you and Mrs BigG and Alastair - just having it once was bad enough, must be awful to have recurrence lurking. Crossing fingers...
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    Charles said:

    alex. said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Raab or Priti Patel or Javid more likely I suspect.

    Rory Stewart now has more chance of being next LD leader than next Tory leader, could defect as Chuka has left Labour for the yellows

    Rory’s not going to defect
    Anyway, why would a leading light in the Labour movement defecting to the LibDems prompt an old school Conservative to do the same?

    Genuine question: was Chuka ever a leading light in Labour except in his media profiles?

    I don’t think he was in Cabinet (if he was I don’t remember him!), he never ran for leader as he pulled out after a few days, he didn’t bring many people along with him when he defected and now he is marooned in the Lib Dems
    He was going to be the British Obama - Hyufd assured us he would become Labour leader :wink:
    Chuka, the great white hope ;)
  • Options
    MarxMarx Posts: 28

    justin124 said:



    Sorry to hear that. I can empathise , having suffered from Meniere's Disease for several years. The loss of balance is particularly disorientating.

    Thanks and sympathies - just having it once was bad enough, must be awful to have recurrence lurking.
    If they mention Labyrinthitus, it is a viral infection and a complete PIA, it's like being totally drunk but being completely sober. Just check out the prescription on Google before taking the pills. Some of them are not nice.
    https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/labyrinthitis/
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    justin124 said:



    Sorry to hear that. I can empathise , having suffered from Meniere's Disease for several years. The loss of balance is particularly disorientating.

    Thanks to everyone for their good wishes, and sympathies to you and Mrs BigG and Alastair - just having it once was bad enough, must be awful to have recurrence lurking. Crossing fingers...
    Very sorry to hear you’ve had vertigo . It really is horrible . You mentioned getting your ears checked. Definitely do that. Get well soon Nick .
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited July 2019
    HYUFD said:

    I would also point out the last LD Deputy PM, Nick Clegg, went to Westminster and of the 2 greatest Liberal PMs of the 19th century, Palmerston and Gladstone, the former went to Harrow and the latter went to Eton.

    Since Thatcher the LDs have had more public school educated leaders than the Tories, Ashdown, Bedford and Clegg, Westminster, 2 to 1 for the Tories, Cameron.

    Boris, Eton, or Hunt, Charterhouse, will only level the score.

    Ed Davey would put the LDs ahead again as he went to the independent Nottingham High School.

    Even Labour have had Blair, Fettes and of course Corbyn went to a private prep school before grammar school.

    Time was when Wesrminster School had as many Whig, Liberal and Radical politicians and PM's as Eton had Tories, but that ended with Russell after Charles Dilke, the great Liberal- Radical hope for PM of the late nineteenth century, turned out to have a bit of a racy private life for the time.

    Dilke ultimately helped set up the Labour party, and ironically Tony Benn, as a Westminster-educated radical aristocrat, vaguely like Nick Clegg, was actually in the same lineage.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    In three minutes time, at 2017 UTC, it will be precisely 50 years since the touchdown of the Apollo 11 lunar lander.

  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Not related to the UK but an interesting poll result from the Ukraine .

    Join the EU 78%

    Stay out 22%

    Of course the Ukraine joining would cause huge ructions between the EU and Russia and not sure the EU would want to go there .
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    One small step for man
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,015
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864

    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    Or not.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-rows-back-on-united-states-of-europe/
    Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen said she no longer advocates for the European Union to become a federal state after previously calling for the bloc to turn into "the United States of Europe."

    In an interview with a group of European newspapers published Thursday, she said her dream of a federalized EU had become "more mature and more realistic."

    "In the European Union, there is unity in diversity," she added. "That's different from federalism. I think that's the right way."

    Just possibly the EU understands federations less well than the UK. After all, we gave rise to four of them

    USA
    Canada
    Australia
    India

    and we co-wrote the constitution of the Federal German Republic after WW2.

    Off the top of my head, the only other federation I can think of in Europe is Switzerland.

    Federations can be more de-centralised and devolved than the EU is on some things. For instance I don't think the US federal government tells the states what time zone they must adopt. So, if Minnesota wanted to move an hour ahead in the winter months and have permanent summer time, it could do so.

    Vermont and New Hampshire are pretty different/diverse, despite being next door. Read some of Bill Bryson's books.
    The cultural change from BC to Alberta is wondrous to behold. You would think they were different countries entirely.
    Alberta is more like Wyoming or Montana than the rest of Canada and by far the most conservative Canadian province
    In truth, much of it resembles Texas. Oil, cattle, hundreds and hundreds of miles of flat, straight roads, pickup trucks, an aversion to paying tax, guns and right wing politics.
    BC is the opposite. Apart from the pickup trucks.
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited July 2019
    AndyJS said:
    Maybe Johnson really is going to appoint the most incompetent and deluded Cabinet in U.K. political history?

    Wonder what George Osborne will make of it?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    alex. said:

    AndyJS said:
    Maybe Johnson really is going to appoint the most incompetent and deluded Cabinet in U.K. political history?
    He'd best not put Davis in as Chancellor
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    nico67 said:

    Not related to the UK but an interesting poll result from the Ukraine .

    Join the EU 78%

    Stay out 22%

    Of course the Ukraine joining would cause huge ructions between the EU and Russia and not sure the EU would want to go there .

    Let’s have a poll in Russia on joining the EU.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    nico67 said:



    Very sorry to hear you’ve had vertigo . It really is horrible . You mentioned getting your ears checked. Definitely do that. Get well soon Nick .

    Thanks Nico! Back to normal for now, translating and writing a brief for the Borough Exec. I've heard of people who say their garden is their comfort zone. The laptop is mine! To each his own...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    edited July 2019

    HYUFD said:

    I would also point out the last LD Deputy PM, Nick Clegg, went to Westminster and of the 2 greatest Liberal PMs of the 19th century, Palmerston and Gladstone, the former went to Harrow and the latter went to Eton.

    Since Thatcher the LDs have had more public school educated leaders than the Tories, Ashdown, Bedford and Clegg, Westminster, 2 to 1 for the Tories, Cameron.

    Boris, Eton, or Hunt, Charterhouse, will only level the score.

    Ed Davey would put the LDs ahead again as he went to the independent Nottingham High School.

    Even Labour have had Blair, Fettes and of course Corbyn went to a private prep school before grammar school.

    Time was when Wesrminster School had as many Whig, Liberal and Radical politicians and PM's as Eton had Tories, but that ended with Russell after Charles Dilke, the great Liberal- Radical hope for PM of the late nineteenth century, turned out to have a bit of a racy private life for the time.

    Dilke ultimately helped set up the Labour party, and ironically Tony Benn, as a Westminster-educated radical aristocrat, vaguely like Nick Clegg, was actually in the same lineage.
    Interesting, Westminster has had 6 PMs, Henry Pelham, Thomas Pelham-Holles, Duke of Newcastle, Charles Watson-Wentworth, Marquess of Rockingham, Augustus Fitzroy, Duke of Grafton, William Cavendish-Bentick, Duke of Portland and Earl Russell. As you say all Whigs and Liberals bar the Duke of Portland who served once as a Whig and once as a Tory (plus former Deputy PM Clegg a Liberal too).

    Of the 45 out of 54 UK PMs educated at Private school, 19 went to Eton (Rosebery being the last Liberal Etonian PM from 1894-95) and 7 went to Harrow (Palmerston being the last Liberal Harrovian PM from 1855-1858 and 1859-1865) and 6 went to Westminster, all of whom were Whigs or Liberals as above.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_education
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Practically all Boris's proposed cabinet ministers previously resigned in disgrace. How can you bring Williamson back if he really was responsible for the Huaewei leak? How can you bring back Patel, who was fired for lying to the Prime Minister? And neither IDS nor Zac Goldsmith has ever done anything notably successful.

    (Except in the latter case resigning and then losing a by-election. Cock.)

    I don't for a second believe Williamson was responsible for the Huaewei leak. May was incredibly keen to ensure there was no further investigation other than her private little witch hunt. That doesn't mean Williamson wasn't a crap defence secretary, just that what they eventually got him for was a load of BS.
    Nonsense. It was an open and shut case (or, given it's Williamson, an open and sh*t case).

    A very short list of suspects (as so few were in the meeting). Williamson is the one who didn't cooperate, and when they did get his 'phone records, who'd he been on the blower with at the crucial time... the journo who broke the story.

    Everything else is ludicrous conspiracy theory based on petulant denials by a kid who got caught with his hand in the cookie jar and chocolate smeared all over his face.
    In which case why did they refuse to get the police involved in spite of it being a criminal act. And in spite of Williamson himself requesting it.

    Seems you will believe any old bullshit if it suits you.
    Because you don’t get the police involved in politics. Yes this was a bad leak but sacking Williamson was a proportionate response.

    Sometimes things are as they seem to be
    This wasn't politics. It was a criminal act. Seems May was frightened they might actually uncover the truth.
    I’m not comfortable with politicians calling in the police to investigate other politicians
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    Just sat and listened to two pensioners over 75 bemoaning the loss of their tv license. They have a £200k plus house in the U.K. a house in Spain gain from double tax relief because they have government based pensions, haven’t got a clue how to spen their money but when I challenged them ‘we’re entitled to it because we’re old’ the man said there was no reason to worry because ‘boris’ would sort it all out next week. They really could not understand why I thought they were talking bollocks

    Taking away entitlements is inredibly unpopular. It's why President Trump was incredibly fortunate that his attempts to repeal Obamacare failed.
    Trump wanted to replace Obamacare with something unspecified but better (not unlike Brexiteers' proposals for the Irish border problem). It was the House GOP that wanted to scrap it completely. This is probably why it went nowhere after initial failure and Trump calling for better proposals. Trump dislikes Obamacare because he dislikes Obama, not because of any strong views on insurance.

    Trump is RINO but while he has delivered right wing judges and tax cuts for the rich, the GOP can live with him.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,019
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864

    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    Or not.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-rows-back-on-united-states-of-europe/
    Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen said she no longer advocates for the European Union to become a federal state after previously calling for the bloc to turn into "the United States of Europe."

    In an interview with a group of European newspapers published Thursday, she said her dream of a federalized EU had become "more mature and more realistic."

    "In the European Union, there is unity in diversity," she added. "That's different from federalism. I think that's the right way."

    Just possibly the EU understands federations less well than the UK. After all, we gave rise to four of them

    USA
    Canada
    Australia
    India

    and we co-wrote the constitution of the Federal German Republic after WW2.

    Off the top of my head, the only other federation I can think of in Europe is Switzerland.

    Federations can be more de-centralised and devolved than the EU is on some things. For instance I don't think the US federal government tells the states what time zone they must adopt. So, if Minnesota wanted to move an hour ahead in the winter months and have permanent summer time, it could do so.

    Vermont and New Hampshire are pretty different/diverse, despite being next door. Read some of Bill Bryson's books.
    The cultural change from BC to Alberta is wondrous to behold. You would think they were different countries entirely.
    Alberta is more like Wyoming or Montana than the rest of Canada and by far the most conservative Canadian province
    In truth, much of it resembles Texas. Oil, cattle, hundreds and hundreds of miles of flat, straight roads, pickup trucks, an aversion to paying tax, guns and right wing politics.
    BC is the opposite. Apart from the pickup trucks.
    It always seems to me that the border is in the wrong place. Banff and Jasper definitely feel like BC to me rather than Alberta. And not just because they are still in the Rockies. They seem far more West Coast in their attitudes than Central Plains.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,369

    justin124 said:



    Sorry to hear that. I can empathise , having suffered from Meniere's Disease for several years. The loss of balance is particularly disorientating.

    Thanks to everyone for their good wishes, and sympathies to you and Mrs BigG and Alastair - just having it once was bad enough, must be awful to have recurrence lurking. Crossing fingers...
    Hi Nick.

    It is something my good lady has adjusted too and takes her medication immediately she feels dizzy and lies down for a while until it passes. It is an inconvenience sometimes but knowing what it is and how to deal with does instil confidence

    I hope your GP comes up with a quick diagnosis for you

    All the best
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Pulpstar said:

    alex. said:

    AndyJS said:
    Maybe Johnson really is going to appoint the most incompetent and deluded Cabinet in U.K. political history?
    He'd best not put Davis in as Chancellor
    This story about Davis having told him “he’d only accept the post of Chancellor or Foreign Secretary”. Sane people would say there’s an obvious response to that. Still maybe 1 in 3 odds are too much for Johnson to beat?
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,019
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Practically all Boris's proposed cabinet ministers previously resigned in disgrace. How can you bring Williamson back if he really was responsible for the Huaewei leak? How can you bring back Patel, who was fired for lying to the Prime Minister? And neither IDS nor Zac Goldsmith has ever done anything notably successful.

    (Except in the latter case resigning and then losing a by-election. Cock.)

    I don't for a second believe Williamson was responsible for the Huaewei leak. May was incredibly keen to ensure there was no further investigation other than her private little witch hunt. That doesn't mean Williamson wasn't a crap defence secretary, just that what they eventually got him for was a load of BS.
    Nonsense. It was an open and shut case (or, given it's Williamson, an open and sh*t case).

    A very short list of suspects (as so few were in the meeting). Williamson is the one who didn't cooperate, and when they did get his 'phone records, who'd he been on the blower with at the crucial time... the journo who broke the story.

    Everything else is ludicrous conspiracy theory based on petulant denials by a kid who got caught with his hand in the cookie jar and chocolate smeared all over his face.
    In which case why did they refuse to get the police involved in spite of it being a criminal act. And in spite of Williamson himself requesting it.

    Seems you will believe any old bullshit if it suits you.
    Because you don’t get the police involved in politics. Yes this was a bad leak but sacking Williamson was a proportionate response.

    Sometimes things are as they seem to be
    This wasn't politics. It was a criminal act. Seems May was frightened they might actually uncover the truth.
    I’m not comfortable with politicians calling in the police to investigate other politicians
    If a crime is committed then I think it is essential. Otherwise we are in a situation where people can claim it is one law for them and one law for everyone else. This was not a normal leak and should not have been treated as such.
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited July 2019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would also point out the last LD Deputy PM, Nick Clegg, went to Westminster and of the 2 greatest Liberal PMs of the 19th century, Palmerston and Gladstone, the former went to Harrow and the latter went to Eton.

    Since Thatcher the LDs have had more public school educated leaders than the Tories, Ashdown, Bedford and Clegg, Westminster, 2 to 1 for the Tories, Cameron.

    Boris, Eton, or Hunt, Charterhouse, will only level the score.

    Ed Davey would put the LDs ahead again as he went to the independent Nottingham High School.

    Even Labour have had Blair, Fettes and of course Corbyn went to a private prep school before grammar school.

    Time was when Wesrminster School had as many Whig, Liberal and Radical politicians and PM's as Eton had Tories, but that ended with Russell after Charles Dilke, the great Liberal- Radical hope for PM of the late nineteenth century, turned out to have a bit of a racy private life for the time.

    Dilke ultimately helped set up the Labour party, and ironically Tony Benn, as a Westminster-educated radical aristocrat, vaguely like Nick Clegg, was actually in the same lineage.
    Interesting, Westminster has had 6 PMs, Henry Pelham, Thomas Pelham-Holles, Duke of Newcastle, Charles Watson-Wentworth, Marquess of Rockingham, Augustus Fitzroy, Duke of Grafton, William Cavendish-Bentick, Duke of Portland and Earl Russell. As you say all Whigs and Liberals bar the Duke of Portland who served once as a Whig and once as a Tory (plus former Deputy PM Clegg a Liberal too).

    Of the 45 out of 54 UK PMs educated at Private school, 19 went to Eton (Rosebery being the last Liberal Etonian PM from 1894-95) and 7 went to Harrow (Palmerston being the last Liberal Harrovian PM from 1855-1858 and 1859-1865) and 6 went to Westminster, all of whom were Whigs or Liberals as above.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_education
    All correct, but on a point of maximum arcana, Harrow and Westminster had the same number ; that list is missing James Waldegrave, yet another Whig or Liberal.

    https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/The_Memoirs_and_Speeches_of_James_2nd_Ea.html?id=X8GrL_g9enMC&redir_esc=y

    I knew all that spectacularly obscure eighteenth century history in would come in useful someday...
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,820
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Meanwhile over the pond, Susan Collins, Maine's Republican Senator, has seen her favourability collapse. She used to be the most popular Senator in the US, enjoying +40 approval ratings.

    She's now getting negative numbers, and (apparently) is second only to Mitch McConnell in terms of unpopularity. Given that Maine is a pretty Blue state, expect that state to flip next year.

    Wasn’t she the flip senator on Kavanagh or something controversial?
    Yes.
    Siding with the Republicans on such an issue was never going to end well for her.
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/susan-collins-brett-kavanaugh-abortion-supreme-court_n_5c6054a1e4b0910c63f186b4
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167

    nico67 said:

    Not related to the UK but an interesting poll result from the Ukraine .

    Join the EU 78%

    Stay out 22%

    Of course the Ukraine joining would cause huge ructions between the EU and Russia and not sure the EU would want to go there .

    Let’s have a poll in Russia on joining the EU.
    If Russia joined the EU it would overtake Germany as the most powerful nation in it soon enough and I doubt the Germans would let that happen.

    Plus half of Russia is in Asia not Europe anyway
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,015

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864

    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    Or not.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-rows-back-on-united-states-of-europe/
    Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen said she no longer advocates for the European Union to become a federal state after previously calling for the bloc to turn into "the United States of Europe."

    In an interview with a group of European newspapers published Thursday, she said her dream of a federalized EU had become "more mature and more realistic."

    "In the European Union, there is unity in diversity," she added. "That's different from federalism. I think that's the right way."

    Just possibly the EU understands federations less well than the UK. After all, we gave rise to four of them

    USA
    Canada
    Australia
    India

    and we co-wrote the constitution of the Federal German Republic after WW2.

    Off the top of my head, the only other federation I can think of in Europe is Switzerland.

    Federations can be more de-centralised and devolved than the EU is on some things. For instance I don't think the US federal government tells the states what time zone they must adopt. So, if Minnesota wanted to move an hour ahead in the winter months and have permanent summer time, it could do so.

    Vermont and New Hampshire are pretty different/diverse, despite being next door. Read some of Bill Bryson's books.
    The cultural change from BC to Alberta is wondrous to behold. You would think they were different countries entirely.
    Alberta is more like Wyoming or Montana than the rest of Canada and by far the most conservative Canadian province
    In truth, much of it resembles Texas. Oil, cattle, hundreds and hundreds of miles of flat, straight roads, pickup trucks, an aversion to paying tax, guns and right wing politics.
    BC is the opposite. Apart from the pickup trucks.
    It always seems to me that the border is in the wrong place. Banff and Jasper definitely feel like BC to me rather than Alberta. And not just because they are still in the Rockies. They seem far more West Coast in their attitudes than Central Plains.
    I wonder if there is something psychological about the landscape? Just thinking about Colorado too.
This discussion has been closed.