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SystemSystem Posts: 12,598
edited July 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Follow the formbook when betting on Boris’s successor and choose an old Etonian

 

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1152559153015074816?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    Raab or Priti Patel or Javid more likely I suspect.

    Rory Stewart now has more chance of being next LD leader than next Tory leader, could defect as Chuka has left Labour for the yellows
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,784
    Possible, Mike, but the odds wouldn't be that great if there were only a dozen or so MPs to choose between.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    edited July 2019
    I would also point out the last LD Deputy PM, Nick Clegg, went to Westminster and of the 2 greatest Liberal PMs of the 19th century, Palmerston and Gladstone, the former went to Harrow and the latter went to Eton.

    Since Thatcher the LDs have had more public school educated leaders than the Tories, Ashdown, Bedford and Clegg, Westminster, 2 to 1 for the Tories, Cameron.

    Boris, Eton, or Hunt, Charterhouse, will only level the score.

    Ed Davey would put the LDs ahead again as he went to the independent Nottingham High School.

    Even Labour have had Blair, Fettes and of course Corbyn went to a private prep school before grammar school.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    There are, of course, a number of old Etonian Tory MPs. I expect Rory Stewart's odds to be ridiculously short. Better value may be found in a relative long shot like Kwasi Kwarteng MP.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,076
    Rory? If only!!

    His election can only happen now if the Tory party rediscovers its OneNation values and has flushed out the wild, english nationalist, bluemomentum members and MPs who will never elect Rory.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,194
    edited July 2019
    Will Rory still be a Tory by the time of the next leadership election?

    What are his odds for next-but-one LibDem leader?

    Edit: Now I've seen that HYUFD (of all people!) has already said the above. Read before typing!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,076
    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    He’s got a passing acquaintance with sanity. As such he has to be a long shot in any future Conservative leadership race.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,076
    SandyRentool said:

    Will Rory still be a Tory by the time of the next leadership election?

    What are his odds for next-but-one LibDem leader?

    Edit: Now I've seen that HYUFD (of all people!) has already said the above. Read before typing!

    The next leadership could be by the end of the autumn!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,076
    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1152551648331304960
  • eekeek Posts: 30,802
    FPT
    anothernick said:

    eek said:

    anothernick said:

    Mexicanpete said:





    I do not believe one nation Tories will defect to the LDs in their masses but I do think disillusioned Labourites will. However Labour deserters will go in one of several ways. LD, Green nationalist parties etc., leaving Johnson a comprehensive victory under FPTP through the back door.

    Boris will lose women voters, nothing to do with Brexit, it's his revolting personality. There are not many women on here I guess, Ms. Cyclefree and Anne are the only ones that come immediately to mind. The rest of us are men AFAIK.

    My wife, who is not very interested in politics, thought Theresa May was doing her best but was brought down by scheming men. As for Boris, "how on earth couldn't anyone think a man who treats women in that way could be suitable as PM? He disgusts me, even Corbyn would be better."

    I very much doubt my wife is alone in holding that view.
    For me it's not his alley cat antics that do for Boris, it's his willingness to obviously promise everything to everyone rather than saying No to people..
    Certainly but I think the electoral downside of Boris' repellent personality is being underestimated by his supporters on here, partly because they are all men.
    The thing to remember is that we've already seen it because we pay attention to politics. While Boris will get a short term bounce I suspect most people will notice inconsistencies very quickly. The question then is do people ignore it ala Trump or does it become an issue...
  • eekeek Posts: 30,802
    On topic - Rory should be the next but 1 leader. The tory party however has lost all sanity so he won't be.

    I do however expect his odds to be so low that laying him may make sense..
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,076
    Armstrong was a Cabinet minister under Blair.

    Obviously she has to be thrown out of the modern Labour party.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    edited July 2019
    SandyRentool said:

    Will Rory still be a Tory by the time of the next leadership election?

    What are his odds for next-but-one LibDem leader?

    Edit: Now I've seen that HYUFD (of all people!) has already said the above. Read before typing!

    I would have thought Chuka v Rory for next-but-one LD leader was more likely than Rory Stewart managing to be more appealing than say Priti Patel, Sajid Javid, Esther McVey or Dominic Raab or James Cleverly to Tory members if and when Boris goes.

    When John Major went the next 3 Tory leaders were Hague, IDS and Howard ie pretty much successively more rightwing each time until Cameron 8 years later. No reason the same could not happen once Theresa May departs next week.



  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1152551648331304960

    Moderate Labour RIP
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,228
    eek said:

    FPT

    anothernick said:

    eek said:

    anothernick said:

    Mexicanpete said:





    I do not believe one nation Tories will defect to the LDs in their masses but I do think disillusioned Labourites will. However Labour deserters will go in one of several ways. LD, Green nationalist parties etc., leaving Johnson a comprehensive victory under FPTP through the back door.

    Boris will lose women voters, nothing to do with Brexit, it's his revolting personality. There are not many women on here I guess, Ms. Cyclefree and Anne are the only ones that come immediately to mind. The rest of us are men AFAIK.

    My wife, who is not very interested in politics, thought Theresa May was doing her best but was brought down by scheming men. As for Boris, "how on earth couldn't anyone think a man who treats women in that way could be suitable as PM? He disgusts me, even Corbyn would be better."

    I very much doubt my wife is alone in holding that view.
    For me it's not his alley cat antics that do for Boris, it's his willingness to obviously promise everything to everyone rather than saying No to people..
    Certainly but I think the electoral downside of Boris' repellent personality is being underestimated by his supporters on here, partly because they are all men.
    The thing to remember is that we've already seen it because we pay attention to politics. While Boris will get a short term bounce I suspect most people will notice inconsistencies very quickly. The question then is do people ignore it ala Trump or does it become an issue...
    Boris Johnson has even less authority going into his premiership than May enjoyed towards the end of hers, as last week's vote demonstrated. That will tell against him, regardless of voters personal opinions.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,782
    edited July 2019
    Just listened to Any Questions late. Give the job of Labour leader to Jess Phillips. She'll walk it. She's head and shoulders better than the rest. As for Rory the Tory...Good photo. Looks like an early Cezanne
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    edited July 2019
    Roger said:

    Just listened to Any Questions late. Give the job of Labour leader to Jess Phillips. She'll walk it. She's head and shoulders better than the rest. As for Rory the Tory...Good photo. Looks like an early Cezanne

    Jess Phillips is too Blairite for the Corbynista Labour membership at the moment
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    rottenborough said:

    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864

    Walking away from vacuous statements praising statist centralised planning ? Good.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,194
    Roger said:

    Just listened to Any Questions late. Give the job of Labour leader to Jess Phillips. She'll walk it. She's head and shoulders better than the rest. As for Rory the Tory...Good photo. Looks like an early Cezanne

    I don't think Jess is perfect, but she would be a very strong leader and give the Tories a really hard time.

    Expect her to be expelled from the party before Christmas.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,379
    HYUFD said:

    ... if and when Boris goes.

    I think even the most ardent Johnson fan would accept that the "if" is redundant there. Everyone goes eventually.

    What I would say is that there are too many unknowns about the situation when Johnson goes.

    Will it be in ten years time or before Xmas? Will he have taken Britain out of the EU (I refuse to use the ugly phrase "delivered Brexit")? Will he go out on a high or on a landslide defeat? Too many imponderables.

    The one possibility I may stick a few quid on if the odds are generous is a technocrat like Lidington. In the event of a VONC, the Conservatives will have 14 days to regain the confidence of the House. The only answer to avoid a General Election may be to turn to that sort of figure. It isn't a likely outcome, but sufficiently credible for a long odds flutter.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    rottenborough said:

    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864

    That sounds a lot like More Europe. And I swear the second is a Tory party slogan.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,379
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Just listened to Any Questions late. Give the job of Labour leader to Jess Phillips. She'll walk it. She's head and shoulders better than the rest. As for Rory the Tory...Good photo. Looks like an early Cezanne

    Jess Phillips is too Blairite for the Corbynista Labour membership at the moment
    Although the last thread but one has 45% of Labour members dissatisfied with Corbyn's leadership compared with just 19% just over a year ago.

    And Philips may be towards the right of the current Labour membership, but "Blairite" is an odd description for someone who wasn't an MP until eight years after Blair left Number 10.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,984
    rottenborough said:

    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864

    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe

    Meanwhile the rest of the world continues to prosper.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,782
    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864

    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe

    Meanwhile the rest of the world continues to prosper.
    A really smart woman. I wish we had similar here. We've got Pritti Patel and Esther McVey
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,348
    Looks like Alaphillipe's tour. At last a French winner?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    edited July 2019
    Rory Stewart is the only Tory MP who might make me vote Tory. The attached article - https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/07/what-wrong-us - is an interesting insight into his thinking.

    But, alas, he seems to have no place in today's Tory party. It prefers someone who thinks waving kippers around is a substitute for thought.

    Edited: just as Jess Phillips is one of the few who might make me reconsider Labour.

    But it's all hypothetical. Their parties are in the hands of ignorant and malicious loons.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    rottenborough said:

    Armstrong was a Cabinet minister under Blair.

    Obviously she has to be thrown out of the modern Labour party.


    And she has spoken up for Jews. Unacceptable in today's Labour Party.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,782
    SandyRentool said:

    Roger said:

    Just listened to Any Questions late. Give the job of Labour leader to Jess Phillips. She'll walk it. She's head and shoulders better than the rest. As for Rory the Tory...Good photo. Looks like an early Cezanne

    I don't think Jess is perfect, but she would be a very strong leader and give the Tories a really hard time.

    Expect her to be expelled from the party before Christmas.
    She's a bit strident but she seems human honest and likeable. Such a contrast to Johnson and Corbyn
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited July 2019
    dixiedean said:

    Looks like Alaphillipe's tour. At last a French winner?

    Egan Bernal looked super strong. Big G isnt going to win though, going to be a very long week in the mountains for him and not sure he will hang on to top 3.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Mr. Roger, honest and likeable doesn't seem to be the view of the Germans.

    https://twitter.com/Trikkynikky1/status/1151816043305873409
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    Roger said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Roger said:

    Just listened to Any Questions late. Give the job of Labour leader to Jess Phillips. She'll walk it. She's head and shoulders better than the rest. As for Rory the Tory...Good photo. Looks like an early Cezanne

    I don't think Jess is perfect, but she would be a very strong leader and give the Tories a really hard time.

    Expect her to be expelled from the party before Christmas.
    She's a bit strident but she seems human honest and likeable. Such a contrast to Johnson and Corbyn
    I've met her. I've no problem with feisty women. Rather in favour of them, actually ( :) ), especially when men call them strident. I will vouch for her being human and likeable.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Roger, honest and likeable doesn't seem to be the view of the Germans.

    https://twitter.com/Trikkynikky1/status/1151816043305873409

    No wonder she was confirmed with a thumping majority.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,530
    Floater said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1152551648331304960

    Moderate Labour RIP
    Next they’ll be expelling members posthumously. As will HY’s diehard Tories.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    dixiedean said:

    Looks like Alaphillipe's tour. At last a French winner?

    Egan Bernal looked super strong. Big G isnt going to win though, going to be a very long week in the mountains for him and not sure he will hang on to top 3.
    My £7 E/W at 15-1 on G for SPOTY isn't looking great, £8 @ 5-1 on Alaphilipe for the tour a bit better though !
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,984
    AlastairMeeks said:

    He’s got a passing acquaintance with sanity. As such he has to be a long shot in any future Conservative leadership race.

    He has knowledge which is good and ideas so should be encouraged.

    But he's also weird and a liar.

    Okay, that's pretty standard among politicians.

    As to his competence I don't know but IIRC Dura has some typically caustic views.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited July 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    dixiedean said:

    Looks like Alaphillipe's tour. At last a French winner?

    Egan Bernal looked super strong. Big G isnt going to win though, going to be a very long week in the mountains for him and not sure he will hang on to top 3.
    My £7 E/W at 15-1 on G for SPOTY isn't looking great, £8 @ 5-1 on Alaphilipe for the tour a bit better though !
    6 more summits over 2000m still to come, team got to make bernal leader now. Thomas was struggling all the way up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    edited July 2019
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Just listened to Any Questions late. Give the job of Labour leader to Jess Phillips. She'll walk it. She's head and shoulders better than the rest. As for Rory the Tory...Good photo. Looks like an early Cezanne

    Jess Phillips is too Blairite for the Corbynista Labour membership at the moment
    Although the last thread but one has 45% of Labour members dissatisfied with Corbyn's leadership compared with just 19% just over a year ago.

    And Philips may be towards the right of the current Labour membership, but "Blairite" is an odd description for someone who wasn't an MP until eight years after Blair left Number 10.
    54% of Labour members still back Corbyn in that thread even when he now has the lowest rating of any opposition leader since WW2 with the public.


    Jess Phillips backed Yvette Cooper for Labour leader in 2015 and Owen Smith in 2016, that is Blairite now for most Labour members
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,348
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    dixiedean said:

    Looks like Alaphillipe's tour. At last a French winner?

    Egan Bernal looked super strong. Big G isnt going to win though, going to be a very long week in the mountains for him and not sure he will hang on to top 3.
    My £7 E/W at 15-1 on G for SPOTY isn't looking great, £8 @ 5-1 on Alaphilipe for the tour a bit better though !
    6 more summits over 2000m still to come, team got to make bernal leader now.
    Will retract my previous statement. Today was chaos made so by Movistar. Setting a tempo, but dropping your leader is ludicrous. Then sending back your top domestique to unsuccessfully rescue your leader, leaving Landa, a possible stage winner isolated...madness.
    Still. Much better and more fun when it isn't just Team Sky strangling the life out of it all.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,782
    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    He’s got a passing acquaintance with sanity. As such he has to be a long shot in any future Conservative leadership race.

    He has knowledge which is good and ideas so should be encouraged.

    But he's also weird and a liar.

    Okay, that's pretty standard among politicians.

    As to his competence I don't know but IIRC Dura has some typically caustic views.
    A liar? When we're just about to be landed with THE liar......and some of us like weird.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,984
    Roger said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864

    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe

    Meanwhile the rest of the world continues to prosper.
    A really smart woman. I wish we had similar here. We've got Pritti Patel and Esther McVey
    You would get the pom poms out for any non Conservative woman.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,984
    Roger said:

    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    He’s got a passing acquaintance with sanity. As such he has to be a long shot in any future Conservative leadership race.

    He has knowledge which is good and ideas so should be encouraged.

    But he's also weird and a liar.

    Okay, that's pretty standard among politicians.

    As to his competence I don't know but IIRC Dura has some typically caustic views.
    A liar? When we're just about to be landed with THE liar......and some of us like weird.
    We can't judge how far Boris comes up the Liar League until he's been PM.

    He'll have to up his game to beat Blair and Cameron.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    another_richard said:

    Roger said:

    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    He’s got a passing acquaintance with sanity. As such he has to be a long shot in any future Conservative leadership race.

    He has knowledge which is good and ideas so should be encouraged.

    But he's also weird and a liar.

    Okay, that's pretty standard among politicians.

    As to his competence I don't know but IIRC Dura has some typically caustic views.
    A liar? When we're just about to be landed with THE liar......and some of us like weird.
    We can't judge how far Boris comes up the Liar League until he's been PM.

    He'll have to up his game to beat Blair and Cameron.
    When you’ve been sacked from 3 jobs for lying I think we can be fairly sure that the course is set.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Roger said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864

    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe

    Meanwhile the rest of the world continues to prosper.
    A really smart woman. I wish we had similar here. We've got Pritti Patel and Esther McVey
    Unusually in today's world, a mother of 7 - all born between 1986 and 1998.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,984
    alex. said:

    another_richard said:

    Roger said:

    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    He’s got a passing acquaintance with sanity. As such he has to be a long shot in any future Conservative leadership race.

    He has knowledge which is good and ideas so should be encouraged.

    But he's also weird and a liar.

    Okay, that's pretty standard among politicians.

    As to his competence I don't know but IIRC Dura has some typically caustic views.
    A liar? When we're just about to be landed with THE liar......and some of us like weird.
    We can't judge how far Boris comes up the Liar League until he's been PM.

    He'll have to up his game to beat Blair and Cameron.
    When you’ve been sacked from 3 jobs for lying I think we can be fairly sure that the course is set.
    That's because Boris is full of shit and everyone knows it.

    To be a good liar you need to be smoother and be convincing.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    RobD said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Roger, honest and likeable doesn't seem to be the view of the Germans.

    https://twitter.com/Trikkynikky1/status/1151816043305873409

    No wonder she was confirmed with a thumping majority.
    It was a majority of 9. Hardly thumping.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,782
    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Roger said:

    Just listened to Any Questions late. Give the job of Labour leader to Jess Phillips. She'll walk it. She's head and shoulders better than the rest. As for Rory the Tory...Good photo. Looks like an early Cezanne

    I don't think Jess is perfect, but she would be a very strong leader and give the Tories a really hard time.

    Expect her to be expelled from the party before Christmas.
    She's a bit strident but she seems human honest and likeable. Such a contrast to Johnson and Corbyn
    I've met her. I've no problem with feisty women. Rather in favour of them, actually ( :) ), especially when men call them strident. I will vouch for her being human and likeable.
    I have no problems with feisty women either and I'm glad you can confirm that her public persona is for real. But I wouldn't say 'strident' and 'feisty' were the same. Feisty suggests courageous and determined. Strident suggests harsh and shrill. Though it's only a small point. and rarely shows itself. She's still better than the rest of them by a distance
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,228
    I like Rory Stewart, but he too suffers from unicornitis. Kinder, gentler Brexit means being in the EU structures, doing what we are told. Fine if you think Brexit must be done, and so a sane Brexit is an improvement on an insane one. But it seems to me that Stewart is somewhat unrealistic.
  • GazGaz Posts: 45
    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Roger said:

    Just listened to Any Questions late. Give the job of Labour leader to Jess Phillips. She'll walk it. She's head and shoulders better than the rest. As for Rory the Tory...Good photo. Looks like an early Cezanne

    I don't think Jess is perfect, but she would be a very strong leader and give the Tories a really hard time.

    Expect her to be expelled from the party before Christmas.
    She's a bit strident but she seems human honest and likeable. Such a contrast to Johnson and Corbyn
    I've met her. I've no problem with feisty women. Rather in favour of them, actually ( :) ), especially when men call them strident. I will vouch for her being human and likeable.
    I have no problems with feisty women either and I'm glad you can confirm that her public persona is for real. But I wouldn't say 'strident' and 'feisty' were the same. Feisty suggests courageous and determined. Strident suggests harsh and shrill. Though it's only a small point. and rarely shows itself. She's still better than the rest of them by a distance
    She’s not feisty she’s gobbby. Her faux working class rubbish, and then the fake tears. She plays an act. Just like Boris does. Maybe been playing it so much she can’t separate herself from it, just like him.

    The idea that the school her child goes to, three out of thirty two thousand schools across the uk that have closed early in Fridays didn’t do so without some kind of connivance is unbelievable.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Just listened to Any Questions late. Give the job of Labour leader to Jess Phillips. She'll walk it. She's head and shoulders better than the rest. As for Rory the Tory...Good photo. Looks like an early Cezanne

    Jess Phillips is too Blairite for the Corbynista Labour membership at the moment
    Although the last thread but one has 45% of Labour members dissatisfied with Corbyn's leadership compared with just 19% just over a year ago.

    And Philips may be towards the right of the current Labour membership, but "Blairite" is an odd description for someone who wasn't an MP until eight years after Blair left Number 10.
    54% of Labour members still back Corbyn in that thread even when he now has the lowest rating of any opposition leader since WW2 with the public.


    Jess Phillips backed Yvette Cooper for Labour leader in 2015 and Owen Smith in 2016, that is Blairite now for most Labour members
    I backed Yvette in 2015. I am certainly not Blairite.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,782
    another_richard said:

    Roger said:

    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    He’s got a passing acquaintance with sanity. As such he has to be a long shot in any future Conservative leadership race.

    He has knowledge which is good and ideas so should be encouraged.

    But he's also weird and a liar.

    Okay, that's pretty standard among politicians.

    As to his competence I don't know but IIRC Dura has some typically caustic views.
    A liar? When we're just about to be landed with THE liar......and some of us like weird.
    We can't judge how far Boris comes up the Liar League until he's been PM.

    He'll have to up his game to beat Blair and Cameron.
    How has Rory shown himself to be a liar?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,984
    Roger said:

    another_richard said:

    Roger said:

    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    He’s got a passing acquaintance with sanity. As such he has to be a long shot in any future Conservative leadership race.

    He has knowledge which is good and ideas so should be encouraged.

    But he's also weird and a liar.

    Okay, that's pretty standard among politicians.

    As to his competence I don't know but IIRC Dura has some typically caustic views.
    A liar? When we're just about to be landed with THE liar......and some of us like weird.
    We can't judge how far Boris comes up the Liar League until he's been PM.

    He'll have to up his game to beat Blair and Cameron.
    How has Rory shown himself to be a liar?
    He bigged up the talks between the government and Labour over Brexit too much.

    IIRC he's also made up some dodgy stats as well.

    Pretty small stuff perhaps but also pretty stupid stuff.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,838
    HYUFD said:

    I would also point out the last LD Deputy PM, Nick Clegg, went to Westminster and of the 2 greatest Liberal PMs of the 19th century, Palmerston and Gladstone, the former went to Harrow and the latter went to Eton.

    Since Thatcher the LDs have had more public school educated leaders than the Tories, Ashdown, Bedford and Clegg, Westminster, 2 to 1 for the Tories, Cameron.

    Boris, Eton, or Hunt, Charterhouse, will only level the score.

    Ed Davey would put the LDs ahead again as he went to the independent Nottingham High School.

    Even Labour have had Blair, Fettes and of course Corbyn went to a private prep school before grammar school.

    Is Bedford really a public school? I mean Fettes is a public school; ditto Eton and Westminster. But Bedford?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    surbiton19 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Just listened to Any Questions late. Give the job of Labour leader to Jess Phillips. She'll walk it. She's head and shoulders better than the rest. As for Rory the Tory...Good photo. Looks like an early Cezanne

    Jess Phillips is too Blairite for the Corbynista Labour membership at the moment
    Although the last thread but one has 45% of Labour members dissatisfied with Corbyn's leadership compared with just 19% just over a year ago.

    And Philips may be towards the right of the current Labour membership, but "Blairite" is an odd description for someone who wasn't an MP until eight years after Blair left Number 10.
    54% of Labour members still back Corbyn in that thread even when he now has the lowest rating of any opposition leader since WW2 with the public.


    Jess Phillips backed Yvette Cooper for Labour leader in 2015 and Owen Smith in 2016, that is Blairite now for most Labour members
    I backed Yvette in 2015. I am certainly not Blairite.
    So did I.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,838
    This is a terrible bet, because:

    1. If Brexit (and in particular No Deal Brexit) goes well, then the Conservative Party will not be looking at a foremer Remainer.

    2. If it goes badly, then MPs from marginal seats likely won't get a chance to become Prime Minister.

    I would instead look at a Brexit-y Old Etonian, and former Odey Asset Management alum, Kwasi Kwarteng*.

    * I may be biased as he's a friend of mine.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,348
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would also point out the last LD Deputy PM, Nick Clegg, went to Westminster and of the 2 greatest Liberal PMs of the 19th century, Palmerston and Gladstone, the former went to Harrow and the latter went to Eton.

    Since Thatcher the LDs have had more public school educated leaders than the Tories, Ashdown, Bedford and Clegg, Westminster, 2 to 1 for the Tories, Cameron.

    Boris, Eton, or Hunt, Charterhouse, will only level the score.

    Ed Davey would put the LDs ahead again as he went to the independent Nottingham High School.

    Even Labour have had Blair, Fettes and of course Corbyn went to a private prep school before grammar school.

    Is Bedford really a public school? I mean Fettes is a public school; ditto Eton and Westminster. But Bedford?
    If it is part of the Headmaster's Conference. If not, no.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,348
    edited July 2019
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would also point out the last LD Deputy PM, Nick Clegg, went to Westminster and of the 2 greatest Liberal PMs of the 19th century, Palmerston and Gladstone, the former went to Harrow and the latter went to Eton.

    Since Thatcher the LDs have had more public school educated leaders than the Tories, Ashdown, Bedford and Clegg, Westminster, 2 to 1 for the Tories, Cameron.

    Boris, Eton, or Hunt, Charterhouse, will only level the score.

    Ed Davey would put the LDs ahead again as he went to the independent Nottingham High School.

    Even Labour have had Blair, Fettes and of course Corbyn went to a private prep school before grammar school.

    Is Bedford really a public school? I mean Fettes is a public school; ditto Eton and Westminster. But Bedford?
    If it is part of the Headmaster's Conference. If not, no.
    And yes it is. As is Nottingham High School.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,838
    HYUFD said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Will Rory still be a Tory by the time of the next leadership election?

    What are his odds for next-but-one LibDem leader?

    Edit: Now I've seen that HYUFD (of all people!) has already said the above. Read before typing!

    I would have thought Chuka v Rory for next-but-one LD leader was more likely than Rory Stewart managing to be more appealing than say Priti Patel, Sajid Javid, Esther McVey or Dominic Raab or James Cleverly to Tory members if and when Boris goes.

    When John Major went the next 3 Tory leaders were Hague, IDS and Howard ie pretty much successively more rightwing each time until Cameron 8 years later. No reason the same could not happen once Theresa May departs next week.

    Increasingly unelectable leaders chosen by a rump group of MPs: interesting.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,838
    another_richard said:

    alex. said:

    another_richard said:

    Roger said:

    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    He’s got a passing acquaintance with sanity. As such he has to be a long shot in any future Conservative leadership race.

    He has knowledge which is good and ideas so should be encouraged.

    But he's also weird and a liar.

    Okay, that's pretty standard among politicians.

    As to his competence I don't know but IIRC Dura has some typically caustic views.
    A liar? When we're just about to be landed with THE liar......and some of us like weird.
    We can't judge how far Boris comes up the Liar League until he's been PM.

    He'll have to up his game to beat Blair and Cameron.
    When you’ve been sacked from 3 jobs for lying I think we can be fairly sure that the course is set.
    That's because Boris is full of shit and everyone knows it.

    To be a good liar you need to be smoother and be convincing.
    Or Donald Trump.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,838
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    ... if and when Boris goes.

    I think even the most ardent Johnson fan would accept that the "if" is redundant there. Everyone goes eventually.

    What I would say is that there are too many unknowns about the situation when Johnson goes.

    Will it be in ten years time or before Xmas? Will he have taken Britain out of the EU (I refuse to use the ugly phrase "delivered Brexit")? Will he go out on a high or on a landslide defeat? Too many imponderables.

    The one possibility I may stick a few quid on if the odds are generous is a technocrat like Lidington. In the event of a VONC, the Conservatives will have 14 days to regain the confidence of the House. The only answer to avoid a General Election may be to turn to that sort of figure. It isn't a likely outcome, but sufficiently credible for a long odds flutter.
    There has to be at least a 50% that he has a son who's also called Boris, so there's no reason why there cannot be an uninterrupted series of Boris Johnsons running the country.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,076
    rcs1000 said:

    This is a terrible bet, because:

    1. If Brexit (and in particular No Deal Brexit) goes well, then the Conservative Party will not be looking at a foremer Remainer.

    2. If it goes badly, then MPs from marginal seats likely won't get a chance to become Prime Minister.

    I would instead look at a Brexit-y Old Etonian, and former Odey Asset Management alum, Kwasi Kwarteng*.

    * I may be biased as he's a friend of mine.

    Where is the marginal seat in this discussion?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,076
    justin124 said:

    surbiton19 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Just listened to Any Questions late. Give the job of Labour leader to Jess Phillips. She'll walk it. She's head and shoulders better than the rest. As for Rory the Tory...Good photo. Looks like an early Cezanne

    Jess Phillips is too Blairite for the Corbynista Labour membership at the moment
    Although the last thread but one has 45% of Labour members dissatisfied with Corbyn's leadership compared with just 19% just over a year ago.

    And Philips may be towards the right of the current Labour membership, but "Blairite" is an odd description for someone who wasn't an MP until eight years after Blair left Number 10.
    54% of Labour members still back Corbyn in that thread even when he now has the lowest rating of any opposition leader since WW2 with the public.


    Jess Phillips backed Yvette Cooper for Labour leader in 2015 and Owen Smith in 2016, that is Blairite now for most Labour members
    I backed Yvette in 2015. I am certainly not Blairite.
    So did I.
    Blairite as a term has been reframed to mean anyone who doesn't regret the collapse of the Soviet Union.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,442
    I think Penny Mordaunt has a great chance of being the Tory leader after Johnson.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,357
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    dixiedean said:

    Looks like Alaphillipe's tour. At last a French winner?

    Egan Bernal looked super strong. Big G isnt going to win though, going to be a very long week in the mountains for him and not sure he will hang on to top 3.
    My £7 E/W at 15-1 on G for SPOTY isn't looking great, £8 @ 5-1 on Alaphilipe for the tour a bit better though !
    6 more summits over 2000m still to come, team got to make bernal leader now. Thomas was struggling all the way up.
    Someone on Betfair backed Alaphilippe at 999/1 (and of course, someone laid him at that too!)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,076
    IanB2 said:

    Floater said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1152551648331304960

    Moderate Labour RIP
    Next they’ll be expelling members posthumously. As will HY’s diehard Tories.
    Yeh. That Clem Attlee, bloody war mongering Blairite. Get him out.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    SandyRentool said:

    Will Rory still be a Tory by the time of the next leadership election?
    What are his odds for next-but-one LibDem leader?
    Edit: Now I've seen that HYUFD (of all people!) has already said the above. Read before typing!

    From what I have seen of him, Rory does seem to think about things, before coming to conclusions and spouting off. From that point of view, he would make a good Lib Dem.

    Some of his views and conclusions are not quite there yet though - which is unsurprising, since he is a member of a Tory cabinet - but if he carries on thinking, he may get there yet.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,838
    surbiton19 said:

    Roger said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864

    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe
    More Europe

    Meanwhile the rest of the world continues to prosper.
    A really smart woman. I wish we had similar here. We've got Pritti Patel and Esther McVey
    Unusually in today's world, a mother of 7 - all born between 1986 and 1998.
    Jess Phillips had her first child when still a child?

    Wow. Who knew?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    PClipp said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Will Rory still be a Tory by the time of the next leadership election?
    What are his odds for next-but-one LibDem leader?
    Edit: Now I've seen that HYUFD (of all people!) has already said the above. Read before typing!

    From what I have seen of him, Rory does seem to think about things, before coming to conclusions and spouting off. From that point of view, he would make a good Lib Dem.

    Some of his views and conclusions are not quite there yet though - which is unsurprising, since he is a member of a Tory cabinet - but if he carries on thinking, he may get there yet.
    Rory backs a much smaller state than the current top Lib Dems think necessary. This is why the likes of Grieve etc are truly politically homeless.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    He needs to smarten up. His pic is sub optimal.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    https://twitter.com/channel4news/status/1152619745906176000?s=21
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:

    Raab or Priti Patel or Javid more likely I suspect.

    Rory Stewart now has more chance of being next LD leader than next Tory leader, could defect as Chuka has left Labour for the yellows

    Rory’s not going to defect
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rottenborough said:

    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864

    You forgot;

    7) Motherhood and apple pie
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/channel4news/status/1152619745906176000?s=21

    What's going to be on the ballot paper?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Raab or Priti Patel or Javid more likely I suspect.

    Rory Stewart now has more chance of being next LD leader than next Tory leader, could defect as Chuka has left Labour for the yellows

    Rory’s not going to defect
    Anyway, why would a leading light in the Labour movement defecting to the LibDems prompt an old school Conservative to do the same?

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Roger said:

    Just listened to Any Questions late. Give the job of Labour leader to Jess Phillips. She'll walk it. She's head and shoulders better than the rest. As for Rory the Tory...Good photo. Looks like an early Cezanne

    I don't think Jess is perfect, but she would be a very strong leader and give the Tories a really hard time.

    Expect her to be expelled from the party before Christmas.
    She's a bit strident but she seems human honest and likeable. Such a contrast to Johnson and Corbyn
    I've met her. I've no problem with feisty women. Rather in favour of them, actually ( :) ), especially when men call them strident. I will vouch for her being human and likeable.
    I’ve not met her, but she seems to slip into crude and vulgar too easily
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    AlastairMeeks said:

    RobD said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Roger, honest and likeable doesn't seem to be the view of the Germans.

    twitter.com/Trikkynikky1/status/1151816043305873409

    No wonder she was confirmed with a thumping majority.
    It was a majority of 9. Hardly thumping.
    I know, I was being sarcastic. ;)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,984
    Pulpstar said:

    PClipp said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Will Rory still be a Tory by the time of the next leadership election?
    What are his odds for next-but-one LibDem leader?
    Edit: Now I've seen that HYUFD (of all people!) has already said the above. Read before typing!

    From what I have seen of him, Rory does seem to think about things, before coming to conclusions and spouting off. From that point of view, he would make a good Lib Dem.

    Some of his views and conclusions are not quite there yet though - which is unsurprising, since he is a member of a Tory cabinet - but if he carries on thinking, he may get there yet.
    Rory backs a much smaller state than the current top Lib Dems think necessary. This is why the likes of Grieve etc are truly politically homeless.
    Few people believe in free markets and the small state since the banks were bailed out.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    With all the talk from the likes of HYUFD of driving Conservatives opposed to No deal Brexit out of the party, how many Conservative associations would have to be disbanded at the same time? If say, London Conservative associations banded together, would they be able to form some sort of independent grouping within the Conservative party, or are they all dominated by Hard Leavers as well?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    alex. said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Raab or Priti Patel or Javid more likely I suspect.

    Rory Stewart now has more chance of being next LD leader than next Tory leader, could defect as Chuka has left Labour for the yellows

    Rory’s not going to defect
    Anyway, why would a leading light in the Labour movement defecting to the LibDems prompt an old school Conservative to do the same?

    Genuine question: was Chuka ever a leading light in Labour except in his media profiles?

    I don’t think he was in Cabinet (if he was I don’t remember him!), he never ran for leader as he pulled out after a few days, he didn’t bring many people along with him when he defected and now he is marooned in the Lib Dems
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1152559153015074816?s=20

    I thought JRM might be chairman...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,984
    Charles said:

    rottenborough said:

    This is what we are walking away from. We will find the world outside a very cold place indeed.

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1151414826218020864

    You forgot;

    7) Motherhood and apple pie
    8) A hand carwash on every road
    9) A chain gang on every farm
    10) A sweat shop in every city
    11) A shanty town in every suburb
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,984
    Charles said:

    alex. said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Raab or Priti Patel or Javid more likely I suspect.

    Rory Stewart now has more chance of being next LD leader than next Tory leader, could defect as Chuka has left Labour for the yellows

    Rory’s not going to defect
    Anyway, why would a leading light in the Labour movement defecting to the LibDems prompt an old school Conservative to do the same?

    Genuine question: was Chuka ever a leading light in Labour except in his media profiles?

    I don’t think he was in Cabinet (if he was I don’t remember him!), he never ran for leader as he pulled out after a few days, he didn’t bring many people along with him when he defected and now he is marooned in the Lib Dems
    He was going to be the British Obama - Hyufd assured us he would become Labour leader :wink:
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,984
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1152559153015074816?s=20

    I thought JRM might be chairman...
    Only if Mogg is prepared to put his millions where his mouth is.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,838
    Charles said:

    alex. said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Raab or Priti Patel or Javid more likely I suspect.

    Rory Stewart now has more chance of being next LD leader than next Tory leader, could defect as Chuka has left Labour for the yellows

    Rory’s not going to defect
    Anyway, why would a leading light in the Labour movement defecting to the LibDems prompt an old school Conservative to do the same?

    Genuine question: was Chuka ever a leading light in Labour except in his media profiles?

    I don’t think he was in Cabinet (if he was I don’t remember him!), he never ran for leader as he pulled out after a few days, he didn’t bring many people along with him when he defected and now he is marooned in the Lib Dems
    He was shadow Business Secretary under Ed M
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,984
    Evening all :)

    One or two individuals wittering on about the "Boris Bounce" and how only Boris can lead the Conservatives to a GE majority should perhaps look at how the picture has changed with ComRes during the leadership campaign.

    One of the big factors establishing Johnson's advantage was the poll published on 11th June showing with Boris as leader the Conservatives romping to a 140-seat landslide majority.

    Next time the question was asked that figure had fallen to a 40 majority.

    When ComRes asked the question this week "Boris Johnson is Prime Minister and Brexit was delivered on 31st October", the Conservative lead is just three points and the Commons is again deadlocked with Conservatives needing DUP support once again.

    So that's a 140 seat majority gone in a month - I also suspect one of the reasons Boris attracted so much support among MPs was the ComRes poll showing only he could save the backbenchers from unemployment and the party from a damaging defeat. Now, that "evidence" is different. There's no Boris Bounce - even delivering Brexit doesn't deliver a majority.

    One area where the pro-Johnson people have it right - if he goes to the country without having delivered Brexit on 31/10 the Conservative survivors will be the fifth largest group in the new Commons.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    edited July 2019
    Boris considering David Davis as Foreign Secretary the Telegraph Reports alongside Michael Fallon, with Hancock a late contender for Chancellor with Rees-Mogg as Chief Secretary to the Treasury.


    Hunt and IDS both contenders for Deputy PM. Penny Mordaunt expected to stay as Defence Secretary with Gove as Health Secretary and Zac Goldsmith Environment Secretary if Hancock becomes Chancellor ahead of Javid.


    Jake Berry tipped for Business to replace Greg Clark along with
    Liz Truss and Dominic Raab likely to replace Gauke at Justice. Priti Patel and Cleverly both tipped for party chairman (though Patel also rumoured to be Fox's replacement at International Trade). Gavin Williamson as Leader of the Commons or Transport Secretary also looks possible.


    Jo Johnson a possible Education Secretary and John Whittingdale possibly returning as Culture Secretary.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/19/david-davis-tipped-shock-cabinet-comeback-boris-johnson/


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/20/boris-johnson-will-do-first-24-hours-prime-minister/
  • The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 506
    Gaz said:

    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Roger said:

    Just listened to Any Questions late. Give the job of Labour leader to Jess Phillips. She'll walk it. She's head and shoulders better than the rest. As for Rory the Tory...Good photo. Looks like an early Cezanne

    I don't think Jess is perfect, but she would be a very strong leader and give the Tories a really hard time.

    Expect her to be expelled from the party before Christmas.
    She's a bit strident but she seems human honest and likeable. Such a contrast to Johnson and Corbyn
    I've met her. I've no problem with feisty women. Rather in favour of them, actually ( :) ), especially when men call them strident. I will vouch for her being human and likeable.
    I have no problems with feisty women either and I'm glad you can confirm that her public persona is for real. But I wouldn't say 'strident' and 'feisty' were the same. Feisty suggests courageous and determined. Strident suggests harsh and shrill. Though it's only a small point. and rarely shows itself. She's still better than the rest of them by a distance
    She’s not feisty she’s gobbby. Her faux working class rubbish, and then the fake tears. She plays an act. Just like Boris does. Maybe been playing it so much she can’t separate herself from it, just like him.

    The idea that the school her child goes to, three out of thirty two thousand schools across the uk that have closed early in Fridays didn’t do so without some kind of connivance is unbelievable.
    Where do you get the idea that only three schools in the UK have been closing early on Fridays due to budget constraints? According to the papers it was 14 schools in Birmingham alone. My kids' school has been shutting early for the past two years so if it can happen to me why not to Jess?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,751
    HYUFD said:

    Boris considering David Davis as Foreign Secretary the Telegraph Reports alongside Michael Fallon, with Hancock a late contender for Chancellor with Rees-Mogg as Chief Secretary to the Treasury.


    Hunt and IDS both contenders for Deputy PM. Penny Mordaunt expected to stay as Defence Secretary with Gove as Health Secretary and Goldsmith Environment Secretary if Hancock becomes Chancellor ahead of Javid.


    Jake Berry tipped for Business to replace Greg Clark along with
    Liz Truss and Dominic Raab likely to replace Gauke at Justice. Priti Patel and Cleverly both tipped for party chairman (though Patel also rumoured to be Fox's replacement at International Trade). Gavin Williamson as Leader of the Commons or Transport Secretary also looks possible.


    Jo Johnson a possible Education Secretary and John Whittingdale possibly returning as Culture Secretary.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/19/david-davis-tipped-shock-cabinet-comeback-boris-johnson/

    God help us.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    edited July 2019
    another_richard said:

    Charles said:

    alex. said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Raab or Priti Patel or Javid more likely I suspect.

    Rory Stewart now has more chance of being next LD leader than next Tory leader, could defect as Chuka has left Labour for the yellows

    Rory’s not going to defect
    Anyway, why would a leading light in the Labour movement defecting to the LibDems prompt an old school Conservative to do the same?

    Genuine question: was Chuka ever a leading light in Labour except in his media profiles?

    I don’t think he was in Cabinet (if he was I don’t remember him!), he never ran for leader as he pulled out after a few days, he didn’t bring many people along with him when he defected and now he is marooned in the Lib Dems
    He was going to be the British Obama - Hyufd assured us he would become Labour leader :wink:
    He could become LD leader now instead, which might be a better longterm bet if Corbynism retains hold of Labour
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,275
    HYUFD said:

    Boris considering David Davis as Foreign Secretary the Telegraph Reports alongside Michael Fallon, with Hancock a late contender for Chancellor with Rees-Mogg as Chief Secretary to the Treasury.


    Hunt and IDS both contenders for Deputy PM. Penny Mordaunt expected to stay as Defence Secretary with Gove as Health Secretary and Zac Goldsmith Environment Secretary if Hancock becomes Chancellor ahead of Javid.


    Jake Berry tipped for Business to replace Greg Clark along with
    Liz Truss and Dominic Raab likely to replace Gauke at Justice. Priti Patel and Cleverly both tipped for party chairman (though Patel also rumoured to be Fox's replacement at International Trade). Gavin Williamson as Leader of the Commons or Transport Secretary also looks possible.


    Jo Johnson a possible Education Secretary and John Whittingdale possibly returning as Culture Secretary.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/19/david-davis-tipped-shock-cabinet-comeback-boris-johnson/


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/20/boris-johnson-will-do-first-24-hours-prime-minister/

    Utterly crackers and virtually all male
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,275
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris considering David Davis as Foreign Secretary the Telegraph Reports alongside Michael Fallon, with Hancock a late contender for Chancellor with Rees-Mogg as Chief Secretary to the Treasury.


    Hunt and IDS both contenders for Deputy PM. Penny Mordaunt expected to stay as Defence Secretary with Gove as Health Secretary and Goldsmith Environment Secretary if Hancock becomes Chancellor ahead of Javid.


    Jake Berry tipped for Business to replace Greg Clark along with
    Liz Truss and Dominic Raab likely to replace Gauke at Justice. Priti Patel and Cleverly both tipped for party chairman (though Patel also rumoured to be Fox's replacement at International Trade). Gavin Williamson as Leader of the Commons or Transport Secretary also looks possible.


    Jo Johnson a possible Education Secretary and John Whittingdale possibly returning as Culture Secretary.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/19/david-davis-tipped-shock-cabinet-comeback-boris-johnson/

    God help us.
    That is a HYUFD wish list and not one to unify the party

    It is barmy and will cause deep divisions within the party and lose Boris what goodwill he may just have
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,838
    HYUFD said:

    Boris considering David Davis as Foreign Secretary the Telegraph Reports alongside Michael Fallon, with Hancock a late contender for Chancellor with Rees-Mogg as Chief Secretary to the Treasury.


    Hunt and IDS both contenders for Deputy PM. Penny Mordaunt expected to stay as Defence Secretary with Gove as Health Secretary and Zac Goldsmith Environment Secretary if Hancock becomes Chancellor ahead of Javid.


    Jake Berry tipped for Business to replace Greg Clark along with
    Liz Truss and Dominic Raab likely to replace Gauke at Justice. Priti Patel and Cleverly both tipped for party chairman (though Patel also rumoured to be Fox's replacement at International Trade). Gavin Williamson as Leader of the Commons or Transport Secretary also looks possible.


    Jo Johnson a possible Education Secretary and John Whittingdale possibly returning as Culture Secretary.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/19/david-davis-tipped-shock-cabinet-comeback-boris-johnson/


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/20/boris-johnson-will-do-first-24-hours-prime-minister/

    Team of Has Beens.

    Zac Goldsmith? JHC.
    Priti Patel? JHC.
    Gavin Williamson? JHC.
    IDS? JHC.

    Mind you, International Trade would be an excellent opportunity for Ms Patel to run a parallel foreign policy that she could then lie about.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,736
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    alex. said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Raab or Priti Patel or Javid more likely I suspect.

    Rory Stewart now has more chance of being next LD leader than next Tory leader, could defect as Chuka has left Labour for the yellows

    Rory’s not going to defect
    Anyway, why would a leading light in the Labour movement defecting to the LibDems prompt an old school Conservative to do the same?

    Genuine question: was Chuka ever a leading light in Labour except in his media profiles?

    I don’t think he was in Cabinet (if he was I don’t remember him!), he never ran for leader as he pulled out after a few days, he didn’t bring many people along with him when he defected and now he is marooned in the Lib Dems
    He was shadow Business Secretary under Ed M
    I don't knock people when they change parties - they're entitled to, just as voters are. But I also don't think Chuka had a big following in Labour - he says of himself that he never felt entirely at home in the party, and that's actually the impression he gave. Nice guy, but he'd be a more natural fit as a LibDem business spokesman.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,984
    Time for a quick look at some European polling.

    Ukraine vote in their parliamentary election tomorrow and it looks certain Servant of the People, the party of President Zelenskiy, will win close to if not an actual majority, You need 213 seats in the Rada for a majority and with the party polling in the high 40s, Dmytro Razumkov will only need a few extra seats to govern and may well govern alone.

    In Germany, the latest Forsa poll has put the CDU/CSU on 27% with the Greens on 24%. Few changes in the latest Swedish and Austrian polls - in the former, the Social Democrats have an 8 point lead over the Swedish Democrats and the Moderates while in Austria the OVP continues to enjoy a huge lead over the SPD and the FPO.

    Finally, a rare poll from Ireland while has Fianna Fail enjoying a 4 point lead over Fine Gael (30-26). SinnFein are third on 14% but the Greens have slumped to 7%. Labour has 5%. The next Irish GE is due next year.


  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,838
    edited July 2019
    Practically all Boris's proposed cabinet ministers previously resigned in disgrace. How can you bring Williamson back if he really was responsible for the Huaewei leak? How can you bring back Patel, who was fired for lying to the Prime Minister? And neither IDS nor Zac Goldsmith has ever done anything notably successful.

    (Except in the latter case resigning and then losing a by-election. Cock.)
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Just sat and listened to two pensioners over 75 bemoaning the loss of their tv license. They have a £200k plus house in the U.K. a house in Spain gain from double tax relief because they have government based pensions, haven’t got a clue how to spen their money but when I challenged them ‘we’re entitled to it because we’re old’ the man said there was no reason to worry because ‘boris’ would sort it all out next week. They really could not understand why I thought they were talking bollocks
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,838
    nichomar said:

    Just sat and listened to two pensioners over 75 bemoaning the loss of their tv license. They have a £200k plus house in the U.K. a house in Spain gain from double tax relief because they have government based pensions, haven’t got a clue how to spen their money but when I challenged them ‘we’re entitled to it because we’re old’ the man said there was no reason to worry because ‘boris’ would sort it all out next week. They really could not understand why I thought they were talking bollocks

    Taking away entitlements is inredibly unpopular. It's why President Trump was incredibly fortunate that his attempts to repeal Obamacare failed.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    Boris considering David Davis as Foreign Secretary the Telegraph Reports alongside Michael Fallon, with Hancock a late contender for Chancellor with Rees-Mogg as Chief Secretary to the Treasury.


    Hunt and IDS both contenders for Deputy PM. Penny Mordaunt expected to stay as Defence Secretary with Gove as Health Secretary and Zac Goldsmith Environment Secretary if Hancock becomes Chancellor ahead of Javid.


    Jake Berry tipped for Business to replace Greg Clark along with
    Liz Truss and Dominic Raab likely to replace Gauke at Justice. Priti Patel and Cleverly both tipped for party chairman (though Patel also rumoured to be Fox's replacement at International Trade). Gavin Williamson as Leader of the Commons or Transport Secretary also looks possible.


    Jo Johnson a possible Education Secretary and John Whittingdale possibly returning as Culture Secretary.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/19/david-davis-tipped-shock-cabinet-comeback-boris-johnson/


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/20/boris-johnson-will-do-first-24-hours-prime-minister/

    All the talents then 😢
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    One or two individuals wittering on about the "Boris Bounce" and how only Boris can lead the Conservatives to a GE majority should perhaps look at how the picture has changed with ComRes during the leadership campaign.

    One of the big factors establishing Johnson's advantage was the poll published on 11th June showing with Boris as leader the Conservatives romping to a 140-seat landslide majority.

    Next time the question was asked that figure had fallen to a 40 majority.

    When ComRes asked the question this week "Boris Johnson is Prime Minister and Brexit was delivered on 31st October", the Conservative lead is just three points and the Commons is again deadlocked with Conservatives needing DUP support once again.

    So that's a 140 seat majority gone in a month - I also suspect one of the reasons Boris attracted so much support among MPs was the ComRes poll showing only he could save the backbenchers from unemployment and the party from a damaging defeat. Now, that "evidence" is different. There's no Boris Bounce - even delivering Brexit doesn't deliver a majority.

    One area where the pro-Johnson people have it right - if he goes to the country without having delivered Brexit on 31/10 the Conservative survivors will be the fifth largest group in the new Commons.

    The poll actually had asked about Boris being PM and taking us out of the EU with No Deal, in which case it had Tories 22%, Labour 21%, LD 12%, Brexit Party 7%. No Deal was not mentioned in previous questions.

    If the question is just about Brexit being delivered it is Tories 23%, Labour 21%, LD 13%, Brexit Party 8%.

    If however the question is about Boris extending then it is Tories 13%, Labour 21%, LD 14%, Brexit Party 18%. If Hunt extends it is Tories 14%, Labour 21%,
    LDs 13%, Brexit Party 19%.

    However in each case an absurdly high 17 to 20% of voters are undecided reducing what can be read into them


    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Britain-Elects-Final-Tables-180719.pdf
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