How about May as head of a government of national unity?
Edit to add: I reckon Corbyn might go for that for the shit and giggles
That would be entertaining, but I can't see any circumstances in which Labour agrees to support anyone other than Corbyn. Given that the other opposition parties would almost certainly also do so, at least on the temporary basis I mentioned, it might be possible if a handful of soon-to-be-ex-Tory MPs decide that a no-deal crash-out is so completely unacceptable that they have no choice.
Anyone who thinks Corbyn in Downing Street is better than any variety of Brexit is insane.
I think the most likely outcome of No Deal is a Corbyn government.
I doubt it. Brexit will have been delivered, the schism with the right will be closed, while Corbyn unless he commits to Rejoin will be outflanked by the Lib Dems with the Europhiles.
If the Lib Dems capture the Europhile zeitgeist and with the Tories capturing the Brexiteers, I can foresee Labour coming third at the next election.
Oh for goodness sake we have to be able to distinguish between a pun based upon a sterotype and actual discrimination. I doubt Hammond actually believe 'girls are less able to fly a plane. Puns about homosexuals organising the cushions, white men not being able to dance, mother-in-laws, women parking, Irish/Polish people doing illogical things, etc, etc are ok. It is alright to tell jokes about these things. My wife and I will often quip about each others inadequacies along these lines. Neither of us believes it in real life.
Isn't it more likely, though, that after the initial VoNC, Corbyn/someone else stitches the conspirators up, and they wind up failing to assemble a working majority within the 14 days, leading to another GE? You'd have to make that a pretty likely outcome, which has got to stay a few hands, surely.
Certainly a possible outcome, but have they lost much in that scenario? In addition, why would Corbyn stitch them up? He'd relish the possibility of going into a GE with the aura of already being PM in a scenario where he'd prevented a disastrous no-deal Tory crash out.
Yes, but he might also relish leading a GE campaign against a Tory party in disarray just after a disastrous no-deal crash out. He still wants out of the EU, and this way he gets to blame the Tories.
The Tories will be in disarray anyway - especially if Boris has failed to deliver on his brain-dead October 31st commitment, which would be the case in the scenario I outlined.
To be clear, I'm not saying this is the most likely scenario, just the most feasible way of ensuring we don't crash out on October 31st. I think more likely scenarios are either that we do, or that we don't because Boris realises belatedly just how disastrous a crash-out would be.
The Tory party is of course kiboshed in any of these scenarios, or any others one can imagine.
Boris Johnson seems to be pretty committed now to No Deal Brexit. Simply, I can't see how he negotiates any meaningful changes to the WA before October 31st. And he is opposed to even time limiting the backstop.
The only way around this, I can see, is to extend the period for the Withdrawal Agreement to (say) five years. Which the EU will like because it means more money. But which many Leavers will hate as it effectively leaves us in the EEA throught the next General Election.
So, let's assume No Deal. He then has to remain in power through a likely recession. (And by the way, I'm assuming that most of the recession is simply a consequence of the current global economic slowdown, plus a bit of a hit from firms deferring UK investments.)
It doesn't look that good for Mr Johnson. But, I could always be completely wrong.
If Boris can survive until the end of the year having taken us out even No Deal, I think he can survive until 2022. At which point teething problems will be largely behind us and even if there has been a slowdown there's no guarantee an unelectable opposition will win.
Kinnock failed in his second election even though the Tories had been in power during quite a bad recession/slowdown. With Corbyn's Labour a Tory 1992 style victory is very possible in 2022.
How about May as head of a government of national unity?
Edit to add: I reckon Corbyn might go for that for the shit and giggles
That would be entertaining, but I can't see any circumstances in which Labour agrees to support anyone other than Corbyn. Given that the other opposition parties would almost certainly also do so, at least on the temporary basis I mentioned, it might be possible if a handful of soon-to-be-ex-Tory MPs decide that a no-deal crash-out is so completely unacceptable that they have no choice.
Anyone who thinks Corbyn in Downing Street is better than any variety of Brexit is insane.
I think the most likely outcome of No Deal is a Corbyn government.
I doubt it. Brexit will have been delivered, the schism with the right will be closed, while Corbyn unless he commits to Rejoin will be outflanked by the Lib Dems with the Europhiles.
If the Lib Dems capture the Europhile zeitgeist and with the Tories capturing the Brexiteers, I can foresee Labour coming third at the next election.
There seems to be an ideal with a lot of people favouring Brexit and especially a No Deal Brexit that once we leave everything will be fine.
However I really don't see that - a lot of very small things we haven't thought about are likely to go slight wrong and some of those will cascade to become bigger issues.
And once things go wrong who exactly is going to be blamed (hint it won't be the opposition) and suddenly Labour may become many peoples least worst option...
Isn't it more likely, though, that after the initial VoNC, Corbyn/someone else stitches the conspirators up, and they wind up failing to assemble a working majority within the 14 days, leading to another GE? You'd have to make that a pretty likely outcome, which has got to stay a few hands, surely.
Certainly a possible outcome, but have they lost much in that scenario? In addition, why would Corbyn stitch them up? He'd relish the possibility of going into a GE with the aura of already being PM in a scenario where he'd prevented a disastrous no-deal Tory crash out.
Yes, but he might also relish leading a GE campaign against a Tory party in disarray just after a disastrous no-deal crash out. He still wants out of the EU, and this way he gets to blame the Tories.
The Tories will be in disarray anyway - especially if Boris has failed to deliver on his brain-dead October 31st commitment, which would be the case in the scenario I outlined.
To be clear, I'm not saying this is the most likely scenario, just the most feasible way of ensuring we don't crash out on October 31st. I think more likely scenarios are either that we do, or that we don't because Boris realises belatedly just how disastrous a crash-out would be.
The Tory party is of course kiboshed in any of these scenarios, or any others one can imagine.
If you're scenario is the Remainers in Parliament pull down Boris's government in a VONC then no I don't think he will be in disarray due to failing to deliver on his commitment. He will have attempted to have delivered it and been thwarted by the dastardly Remainers in Parliament and will seek an election to complete the job.
Farage has said in that scenario he'd support a "coupon" style election agreement with Boris's Tories.
Corbyn won't seek or get a "coupon" with Labour so a 1918 style landslide for Boris is possible.
That's no problem. A flotilla of private boats will ferry British goods to Dunkirk, and if the French play silly buggers, we'll dump them in the sea in protest.
Isn't it more likely, though, that after the initial VoNC, Corbyn/someone else stitches the conspirators up, and they wind up failing to assemble a working majority within the 14 days, leading to another GE? You'd have to make that a pretty likely outcome, which has got to stay a few hands, surely.
Certainly a possible outcome, but have they lost much in that scenario? In addition, why would Corbyn stitch them up? He'd relish the possibility of going into a GE with the aura of already being PM in a scenario where he'd prevented a disastrous no-deal Tory crash out.
Yes, but he might also relish leading a GE campaign against a Tory party in disarray just after a disastrous no-deal crash out. He still wants out of the EU, and this way he gets to blame the Tories.
The Tories will be in disarray anyway - especially if Boris has failed to deliver on his brain-dead October 31st commitment, which would be the case in the scenario I outlined.
To be clear, I'm not saying this is the most likely scenario, just the most feasible way of ensuring we don't crash out on October 31st. I think more likely scenarios are either that we do, or that we don't because Boris realises belatedly just how disastrous a crash-out would be.
The Tory party is of course kiboshed in any of these scenarios, or any others one can imagine.
If you're scenario is the Remainers in Parliament pull down Boris's government in a VONC then no I don't think he will be in disarray due to failing to deliver on his commitment. He will have attempted to have delivered it and been thwarted by the dastardly Remainers in Parliament and will seek an election to complete the job.
Farage has said in that scenario he'd support a "coupon" style election agreement with Boris's Tories.
Corbyn won't seek or get a "coupon" with Labour so a 1918 style landslide for Boris is possible.
lol - It sounds great on paper but the voters might well think otherwise....
How about May as head of a government of national unity?
Edit to add: I reckon Corbyn might go for that for the shit and giggles
That would be entertaining, but I can't see any circumstances in which Labour agrees to support anyone other than Corbyn. Given that the other opposition parties would almost certainly also do so, at least on the temporary basis I mentioned, it might be possible if a handful of soon-to-be-ex-Tory MPs decide that a no-deal crash-out is so completely unacceptable that they have no choice.
Anyone who thinks Corbyn in Downing Street is better than any variety of Brexit is insane.
I think the most likely outcome of No Deal is a Corbyn government.
I doubt it. Brexit will have been delivered, the schism with the right will be closed, while Corbyn unless he commits to Rejoin will be outflanked by the Lib Dems with the Europhiles.
If the Lib Dems capture the Europhile zeitgeist and with the Tories capturing the Brexiteers, I can foresee Labour coming third at the next election.
Labour is left in No Man's Land once we have any form of Brexit. Do they live with it? Do they try and re-open it? Do they fight the LibDems as the party of Rejoin? And Corbyn as their leader is the Man Who Couldn't Stop Brexit.
How about May as head of a government of national unity?
Edit to add: I reckon Corbyn might go for that for the shit and giggles
That would be entertaining, but I can't see any circumstances in which Labour agrees to support anyone other than Corbyn. Given that the other opposition parties would almost certainly also do so, at least on the temporary basis I mentioned, it might be possible if a handful of soon-to-be-ex-Tory MPs decide that a no-deal crash-out is so completely unacceptable that they have no choice.
Anyone who thinks Corbyn in Downing Street is better than any variety of Brexit is insane.
I think the most likely outcome of No Deal is a Corbyn government.
I doubt it. Brexit will have been delivered, the schism with the right will be closed, while Corbyn unless he commits to Rejoin will be outflanked by the Lib Dems with the Europhiles.
If the Lib Dems capture the Europhile zeitgeist and with the Tories capturing the Brexiteers, I can foresee Labour coming third at the next election.
Labour is left in No Man's Land once we have any form of Brexit. Do they live with it? Do they try and re-open it? Do they fight the LibDems as the party of Rejoin? And Corbyn as their leader is the Man Who Couldn't Stop Brexit.
You're assuming that Brexit will be seen as neutral or a success. Any kind of Brexit seen as a failure will only cause political positioning problems for those who were complicit in it (which admittedly does include the Labour party).
Oh for goodness sake we have to be able to distinguish between a pun based upon a sterotype and actual discrimination. I doubt Hammond actually believe 'girls are less able to fly a plane. Puns about homosexuals organising the cushions, white men not being able to dance, mother-in-laws, women parking, Irish/Polish people doing illogical things, etc, etc are ok. It is alright to tell jokes about these things. My wife and I will often quip about each others inadequacies along these lines. Neither of us believes it in real life.
Where's the pun?
A release of tension after a bumpy landing. OK not a pun as such, but a bit of fun. Nobody would assume from just that, that he really thinks 'girls' we less adequate.
I will make sterotypes joke at the expense of my wife re diet or sport (as she is Scottish) about being afraid of spiders or messing up the parking (because she is a girl). She will be rude about the English and about my DIY skills (or lack of), etc etc. We don't actually mean any of it.
Would it be cynical and/or unkind of me to wonder whether Gavin Williamson had anything to do with the leak of Sir Kim Darroch’s diplomatic billets doux?
How about May as head of a government of national unity?
Edit to add: I reckon Corbyn might go for that for the shit and giggles
That would be entertaining, but I can't see any circumstances in which Labour agrees to support anyone other than Corbyn. Given that the other opposition parties would almost certainly also do so, at least on the temporary basis I mentioned, it might be possible if a handful of soon-to-be-ex-Tory MPs decide that a no-deal crash-out is so completely unacceptable that they have no choice.
Anyone who thinks Corbyn in Downing Street is better than any variety of Brexit is insane.
I think the most likely outcome of No Deal is a Corbyn government.
I doubt it. Brexit will have been delivered, the schism with the right will be closed, while Corbyn unless he commits to Rejoin will be outflanked by the Lib Dems with the Europhiles.
If the Lib Dems capture the Europhile zeitgeist and with the Tories capturing the Brexiteers, I can foresee Labour coming third at the next election.
There seems to be an ideal with a lot of people favouring Brexit and especially a No Deal Brexit that once we leave everything will be fine.
However I really don't see that - a lot of very small things we haven't thought about are likely to go slight wrong and some of those will cascade to become bigger issues.
And once things go wrong who exactly is going to be blamed (hint it won't be the opposition) and suddenly Labour may become many peoples least worst option...
Yes, in a post Brexit election with No Deal I wouldn't think it will be done and dusted. Remainers will be out for revenge, democrats resentful how it was achieved, and Leavers ungrateful because voters are ungrateful buggers!
If Boris thinks he will walk it, he will get a rude awakening!
Oh for goodness sake we have to be able to distinguish between a pun based upon a sterotype and actual discrimination. I doubt Hammond actually believe 'girls are less able to fly a plane. Puns about homosexuals organising the cushions, white men not being able to dance, mother-in-laws, women parking, Irish/Polish people doing illogical things, etc, etc are ok. It is alright to tell jokes about these things. My wife and I will often quip about each others inadequacies along these lines. Neither of us believes it in real life.
Harry is one of the multitude of snowflakes around who like to be offended with just about anything
How about May as head of a government of national unity?
Edit to add: I reckon Corbyn might go for that for the shit and giggles
That would be entertaining, but I can't see any circumstances in which Labour agrees to support anyone other than Corbyn. Given that the other opposition parties would almost certainly also do so, at least on the temporary basis I mentioned, it might be possible if a handful of soon-to-be-ex-Tory MPs decide that a no-deal crash-out is so completely unacceptable that they have no choice.
Anyone who thinks Corbyn in Downing Street is better than any variety of Brexit is insane.
I think the most likely outcome of No Deal is a Corbyn government.
I doubt it. Brexit will have been delivered, the schism with the right will be closed, while Corbyn unless he commits to Rejoin will be outflanked by the Lib Dems with the Europhiles.
If the Lib Dems capture the Europhile zeitgeist and with the Tories capturing the Brexiteers, I can foresee Labour coming third at the next election.
Labour is left in No Man's Land once we have any form of Brexit. Do they live with it? Do they try and re-open it? Do they fight the LibDems as the party of Rejoin? And Corbyn as their leader is the Man Who Couldn't Stop Brexit.
You're assuming that Brexit will be seen as neutral or a success. Any kind of Brexit seen as a failure will only cause political positioning problems for those who were complicit in it (which admittedly does include the Labour party).
Claiming Labour is complicit is more complex and requires more steps in thinking than most posters here follow (let alone the general public)..
For most people, all Brexit issues big and small will be down to the Tory party...
That's no problem. A flotilla of private boats will ferry British goods to Dunkirk, and if the French play silly buggers, we'll dump them in the sea in protest.
Dumping the French in the sea might have some traction as an idea
If Boris can survive until the end of the year having taken us out even No Deal, I think he can survive until 2022. At which point teething problems will be largely behind us and even if there has been a slowdown there's no guarantee an unelectable opposition will win.
Kinnock failed in his second election even though the Tories had been in power during quite a bad recession/slowdown. With Corbyn's Labour a Tory 1992 style victory is very possible in 2022.
The government majority, assuming the Tories lose B&R, is essentially zero. Illness or death on the government benches could see a VoNC at any time.
And the other risk is that people like Grieve get deselected. And once they're deselected, what's keeping them in the Conservative Party except fear of a Corbyn government?
Isn't it more likely, though, that after the initial VoNC, Corbyn/someone else stitches the conspirators up, and they wind up failing to assemble a working majority within the 14 days, leading to another GE? You'd have to make that a pretty likely outcome, which has got to stay a few hands, surely.
Certainly a possible outcome, but have they lost much in that scenario? In addition, why would Corbyn stitch them up? He'd relish the possibility of going into a GE with the aura of already being PM in a scenario where he'd prevented a disastrous no-deal Tory crash out.
Yes, but he might also relish leading a GE campaign against a Tory party in disarray just after a disastrous no-deal crash out. He still wants out of the EU, and this way he gets to blame the Tories.
The Tories will be in disarray anyway - especially if Boris has failed to deliver on his brain-dead October 31st commitment, which would be the case in the scenario I outlined.
To be clear, I'm not saying this is the most likely scenario, just the most feasible way of ensuring we don't crash out on October 31st. I think more likely scenarios are either that we do, or that we don't because Boris realises belatedly just how disastrous a crash-out would be.
The Tory party is of course kiboshed in any of these scenarios, or any others one can imagine.
If you're scenario is the Remainers in Parliament pull down Boris's government in a VONC then no I don't think he will be in disarray due to failing to deliver on his commitment. He will have attempted to have delivered it and been thwarted by the dastardly Remainers in Parliament and will seek an election to complete the job.
Farage has said in that scenario he'd support a "coupon" style election agreement with Boris's Tories.
Corbyn won't seek or get a "coupon" with Labour so a 1918 style landslide for Boris is possible.
lol - It sounds great on paper but the voters might well think otherwise....
A Brexit / Tory coupon election. I think this photo or similar ones (done by people who know photoshop) would get a lot of use
I see we are still in fantasy land with the Brexiteers.
I think Brexit is voodoo economics on steroids.
Boris is going to endure a baptism of fire that is for sure.
I actually think Boris is going to suffer more than usual politicians when he becomes unpopular as he will be unable to adjust to the intensity of being hated in the way he will. No joking or bumbling is going to get him out of the hole he is heading down...
For exporting outside the EU's customs area, you need a fair amount of paperwork.
The real hassle is going to be on exports to the US. They are utterly fanatical about getting proper Rules of Origin documentation, and if British goods contain EU components, we need to make sure that we have all the right paperwork. (And that means getting customs stamps from the UK on import of a component and from the French on the export. It's a right palava.)
Isn't it more likely, though, that after the initial VoNC, Corbyn/someone else stitches the conspirators up, and they wind up failing to assemble a working majority within the 14 days, leading to another GE? You'd have to make that a pretty likely outcome, which has got to stay a few hands, surely.
Certainly a possible outcome, but have they lost much in that scenario? In addition, why would Corbyn stitch them up? He'd relish the possibility of going into a GE with the aura of already being PM in a scenario where he'd prevented a disastrous no-deal Tory crash out.
Yes, but he might also relish leading a GE campaign against a Tory party in disarray just after a disastrous no-deal crash out. He still wants out of the EU, and this way he gets to blame the Tories.
The Tories will be in disarray anyway - especially if Boris has failed to deliver on his brain-dead October 31st commitment, which would be the case in the scenario I outlined.
To be clear, I'm not saying this is the most likely scenario, just the most feasible way of ensuring we don't crash out on October 31st. I think more likely scenarios are either that we do, or that we don't because Boris realises belatedly just how disastrous a crash-out would be.
The Tory party is of course kiboshed in any of these scenarios, or any others one can imagine.
If you're scenario is the Remainers in Parliament pull down Boris's government in a VONC then no I don't think he will be in disarray due to failing to deliver on his commitment. He will have attempted to have delivered it and been thwarted by the dastardly Remainers in Parliament and will seek an election to complete the job.
Farage has said in that scenario he'd support a "coupon" style election agreement with Boris's Tories.
Corbyn won't seek or get a "coupon" with Labour so a 1918 style landslide for Boris is possible.
lol - It sounds great on paper but the voters might well think otherwise....
A Brexit / Tory coupon election. I think this photo or similar ones would get a lot of use
Yeah, that is a good one. I cannot stand either Boris or Farage. I think George Galloway used the phrase of two cheeks of the same arse! Not a nice picture...
If Boris can survive until the end of the year having taken us out even No Deal, I think he can survive until 2022. At which point teething problems will be largely behind us and even if there has been a slowdown there's no guarantee an unelectable opposition will win.
Kinnock failed in his second election even though the Tories had been in power during quite a bad recession/slowdown. With Corbyn's Labour a Tory 1992 style victory is very possible in 2022.
The government majority, assuming the Tories lose B&R, is essentially zero. Illness or death on the government benches could see a VoNC at any time.
And the other risk is that people like Grieve get deselected. And once they're deselected, what's keeping them in the Conservative Party except fear of a Corbyn government?
I agree. I can't see this administration going all the way until 2022. A working majority of 1 is far too small.
Would it be cynical and/or unkind of me to wonder whether Gavin Williamson had anything to do with the leak of Sir Kim Darroch’s diplomatic billets doux?
Given he wasn't a minister at the time of one of the emails, it would be pretty remarkable if it was him.
How about May as head of a government of national unity?
Edit to add: I reckon Corbyn might go for that for the shit and giggles
That would be entertaining, but I can't see any circumstances in which Labour agrees to support anyone other than Corbyn. Given that the other opposition parties would almost certainly also do so, at least on the temporary basis I mentioned, it might be possible if a handful of soon-to-be-ex-Tory MPs decide that a no-deal crash-out is so completely unacceptable that they have no choice.
Anyone who thinks Corbyn in Downing Street is better than any variety of Brexit is insane.
I think the most likely outcome of No Deal is a Corbyn government.
I doubt it. Brexit will have been delivered, the schism with the right will be closed, while Corbyn unless he commits to Rejoin will be outflanked by the Lib Dems with the Europhiles.
If the Lib Dems capture the Europhile zeitgeist and with the Tories capturing the Brexiteers, I can foresee Labour coming third at the next election.
Labour is left in No Man's Land once we have any form of Brexit. Do they live with it? Do they try and re-open it? Do they fight the LibDems as the party of Rejoin? And Corbyn as their leader is the Man Who Couldn't Stop Brexit.
You're assuming that Brexit will be seen as neutral or a success. Any kind of Brexit seen as a failure will only cause political positioning problems for those who were complicit in it (which admittedly does include the Labour party).
Would it be cynical and/or unkind of me to wonder whether Gavin Williamson had anything to do with the leak of Sir Kim Darroch’s diplomatic billets doux?
Isn't it more likely, though, that after the initial VoNC, Corbyn/someone else stitches the conspirators up, and they wind up failing to assemble a working majority within the 14 days, leading to another GE? You'd have to make that a pretty likely outcome, which has got to stay a few hands, surely.
no-deal Tory crash out.
Yes, but he might also relish leading a GE campaign against a Tory party in disarray just after a disastrous no-deal crash out. He still wants out of the EU, and this way he gets to blame the Tories.
The Tories will be in disarray anyway - especially if Boris has failed to deliver on his brain-dead October 31st commitment, which would be the case in the scenario I outlined.
The Tory party is of course kiboshed in any of these scenarios, or any others one can imagine.
Boris Johnson seems to be pretty committed now to No Deal Brexit. Simply, I can't see how he negotiates any meaningful changes to the WA before October 31st. And he is opposed to even time limiting the backstop.
It doesn't look that good for Mr Johnson. But, I could always be completely wrong.
If Boris can survive until the end of the year having taken us out even No Deal, I think he can survive until 2022. At which point teething problems will be largely behind us and even if there has been a slowdown there's no guarantee an unelectable opposition will win.
Kinnock failed in his second election even though the Tories had been in power during quite a bad recession/slowdown. With Corbyn's Labour a Tory 1992 style victory is very possible in 2022.
When Kinnock lost the 1987 election, Michael Heseltine was on the results programme and said Labour had lost the next election as well. The reason he knew this was the constraints on a political party targeting seats in the next election from the result that Labour in this case achieved in the last. In usual circumstances the Tories and Labour only target 70 or so seats. Some of this activity in the Governing party for instance might be used for defence.
For Labour in 1992, Labour won 230 seats in 1987 plus 70 targets is 300: That is short of a majority and likely behind the Tories. I laughed when I was told of the campaigning constraints on targeting as it made the stuff serious politicians have been saying over the years meaningless about forming the next Government etc...
How about May as head of a government of national unity?
Edit to add: I reckon Corbyn might go for that for the shit and giggles
That would be entertaining, but I can't see any circumstances in which Labour agrees to support anyone other than Corbyn. Given that the other opposition parties would almost certainly also do so, at least on the temporary basis I mentioned, it might be possible if a handful of soon-to-be-ex-Tory MPs decide that a no-deal crash-out is so completely unacceptable that they have no choice.
Anyone who thinks Corbyn in Downing Street is better than any variety of Brexit is insane.
I think the most likely outcome of No Deal is a Corbyn government.
I doubt it. Brexit will have been delivered, the schism with the right will be closed, while Corbyn unless he commits to Rejoin will be outflanked by the Lib Dems with the Europhiles.
If the Lib Dems capture the Europhile zeitgeist and with the Tories capturing the Brexiteers, I can foresee Labour coming third at the next election.
Labour is left in No Man's Land once we have any form of Brexit. Do they live with it? Do they try and re-open it? Do they fight the LibDems as the party of Rejoin? And Corbyn as their leader is the Man Who Couldn't Stop Brexit.
Worse than that, many on his own side know in their heart of hearts that Corbyn is the Man Who Didn't Want To Stop Brexit.
Lib Dems will at the least play the role of what was pre-referendum UKIP in years to come, the obsessives banging on about Europe. They will play the rejoin card, but Labour will be torn.
The threshold, right now, and its immediate aftermath is the dangerous part for the Tories. Once we've Brexited though we can move on.
Fantastic news! It takes two to tango. A backstopless deal would be ideal but if they don't want there will be consequences and I can live with that.
So you’re applauding a likely return of problems at the border when the infrastructure goes up!
No I'm applauding playing hardball, which is no different whatsoever to what Varadkar has been doing.
The second they're willing to compromise and treat us as equals rather than supplicants then I'd be happy to have an equitable deal.
On matters of trade, we are not equals. Just as we will not be if and when we try to negotiate new trade arrangements with the US. We have certain tactical advantages, and other disadvantages, but Europe is quite simply a much larger economic body.
Would it be cynical and/or unkind of me to wonder whether Gavin Williamson had anything to do with the leak of Sir Kim Darroch’s diplomatic billets doux?
Given he wasn't a minister at the time of one of the emails, it would be pretty remarkable if it was him.
Not really. Someone trawls the archive to get the mails. An ex- minister with good journalistic contacts and with a reputation for leaking is a good conduit or source of advice as to how one might go around getting such stuff into the hands of a journalist.
He has reason to get his revenge on the civil service and Mrs May. He has reason to help Boris. He is now, apparently, in line for a plum position in government. If Boris is PM the chances of any action being taken against him are low. Boris gets deniability but gets the benefit of such a leak. The Brexiteers are delighted. Gavin gets his revenge.
If Boris can survive until the end of the year having taken us out even No Deal, I think he can survive until 2022. At which point teething problems will be largely behind us and even if there has been a slowdown there's no guarantee an unelectable opposition will win.
Kinnock failed in his second election even though the Tories had been in power during quite a bad recession/slowdown. With Corbyn's Labour a Tory 1992 style victory is very possible in 2022.
The government majority, assuming the Tories lose B&R, is essentially zero. Illness or death on the government benches could see a VoNC at any time.
And the other risk is that people like Grieve get deselected. And once they're deselected, what's keeping them in the Conservative Party except fear of a Corbyn government?
Nothing. Minority governments have survived before. There are dozens of MPs now who know that their Parliamentary salary is over at the next election.
Grieve and co are most likely to pull the trigger now or in the next few weeks and months. If we can get through the event horizon of Brexit and beyond why would they pull it next year or the year after? If they VONC now they might stop Brexit but once Brexit has happened it will be closing the stable door after the horse has bolted.
I think there should be a U-shape on probability of next election year. This year has a decent chance, next year less, 2021 quite slim, then 2022 quite likely again.
Having told us that No Deal is not going to be a problem, it will be interesting to see how long Johnson gets away with blaming the EU for all the difficulties that emerge once it actually happens.
Sadly not very interesting. It will be as simple as saying 'It would have been no problem, but they chose to make it a problem out of spite'.
It might work, if the negatives are not too terrible.
If there is any kind of base template for a US president in recent decades, it surely includes some, admittedly very varied, variation on a theme of homespun, whimsical, laid back, easy charm, even a little Forest Gumpy. Even if they were sharp as a pin lawyerly few had the uptight precision that often follows.
I don't remember Bush senior's manner in office too well, but I think you may have to go back to Nixon to buck that.
We can see Biden is a flawed candidate, but I just wonder if the whole Mid West thing still holds, that the idea of the president as someone you'd get on well with in a bar is so deeply ingrained as to be a rule. The corollary is that all the female candidates, who still.have to be pin sharp to get where they are, could be at more of a disadvantage in the US system than elsewhere.
Would it be cynical and/or unkind of me to wonder whether Gavin Williamson had anything to do with the leak of Sir Kim Darroch’s diplomatic billets doux?
Given he wasn't a minister at the time of one of the emails, it would be pretty remarkable if it was him.
Not really. Someone trawls the archive to get the mails. An ex- minister with good journalistic contacts and with a reputation for leaking is a good conduit or source of advice as to how one might go around getting such stuff into the hands of a journalist.
He has reason to get his revenge on the civil service and Mrs May. He has reason to help Boris. He is now, apparently, in line for a plum position in government. If Boris is PM the chances of any action being taken against him are low. Boris gets deniability but gets the benefit of such a leak. The Brexiteers are delighted. Gavin gets his revenge.
Not that implausible.
Do you think the leak benefited Boris? I don't see how. It embarrassed him, brought the video of him saying similar back to the fore, put him under the spot and cross-examination regarding backing Darroch.
Considering Boris's strategy to date was to play it smart and not rock the horses, that was more like lighting a stick of dynamite and chucking it at the horses to see how they run. Made no sense whatsoever with his strategy.
I think it is likely now that the Democrats will prefer the small chance of beating Trump with Harris and Warren to the strong chance of beating Trump with Biden
Fantastic news! It takes two to tango. A backstopless deal would be ideal but if they don't want there will be consequences and I can live with that.
So you’re applauding a likely return of problems at the border when the infrastructure goes up!
No I'm applauding playing hardball, which is no different whatsoever to what Varadkar has been doing.
The second they're willing to compromise and treat us as equals rather than supplicants then I'd be happy to have an equitable deal.
On matters of trade, we are not equals. Just as we will not be if and when we try to negotiate new trade arrangements with the US. We have certain tactical advantages, and other disadvantages, but Europe is quite simply a much larger economic body.
In every US trade agreement, ISDS panels are three member, of which two have to be American.
If Boris can survive until the end of the year having taken us out even No Deal, I think he can survive until 2022. At which point teething problems will be largely behind us and even if there has been a slowdown there's no guarantee an unelectable opposition will win.
Kinnock failed in his second election even though the Tories had been in power during quite a bad recession/slowdown. With Corbyn's Labour a Tory 1992 style victory is very possible in 2022.
The government majority, assuming the Tories lose B&R, is essentially zero. Illness or death on the government benches could see a VoNC at any time.
And the other risk is that people like Grieve get deselected. And once they're deselected, what's keeping them in the Conservative Party except fear of a Corbyn government?
Nothing. Minority governments have survived before. There are dozens of MPs now who know that their Parliamentary salary is over at the next election.
Grieve and co are most likely to pull the trigger now or in the next few weeks and months. If we can get through the event horizon of Brexit and beyond why would they pull it next year or the year after? If they VONC now they might stop Brexit but once Brexit has happened it will be closing the stable door after the horse has bolted.
I think there should be a U-shape on probability of next election year. This year has a decent chance, next year less, 2021 quite slim, then 2022 quite likely again.
Punters can avoid all the 2019 v 2020 fretting by simply laying 2022 at around 4 on BFE
How about May as head of a government of national unity?
Edit to add: I reckon Corbyn might go for that for the shit and giggles
That would be entertaining, but I can't see any circumstances in which Labour agrees to support anyone other than Corbyn. Given that the other opposition parties would almost certainly also do so, at least on the temporary basis I mentioned, it might be possible if a handful of soon-to-be-ex-Tory MPs decide that a no-deal crash-out is so completely unacceptable that they have no choice.
Anyone who thinks Corbyn in Downing Street is better than any variety of Brexit is insane.
I think the most likely outcome of No Deal is a Corbyn government.
I doubt it. Brexit will have been delivered, the schism with the right will be closed, while Corbyn unless he commits to Rejoin will be outflanked by the Lib Dems with the Europhiles.
If the Lib Dems capture the Europhile zeitgeist and with the Tories capturing the Brexiteers, I can foresee Labour coming third at the next election.
Labour is left in No Man's Land once we have any form of Brexit. Do they live with it? Do they try and re-open it? Do they fight the LibDems as the party of Rejoin? And Corbyn as their leader is the Man Who Couldn't Stop Brexit.
Worse than that, many on his own side know in their heart of hearts that Corbyn is the Man Who Didn't Want To Stop Brexit.
Lib Dems will at the least play the role of what was pre-referendum UKIP in years to come, the obsessives banging on about Europe. They will play the rejoin card, but Labour will be torn.
The threshold, right now, and its immediate aftermath is the dangerous part for the Tories. Once we've Brexited though we can move on.
Only if the nutters in the ERG and BXP are content with boundless BINO and are prepared to pack up and go home whilst the UK remains in endless transition.
If Boris can survive until the end of the year having taken us out even No Deal, I think he can survive until 2022. At which point teething problems will be largely behind us and even if there has been a slowdown there's no guarantee an unelectable opposition will win.
Kinnock failed in his second election even though the Tories had been in power during quite a bad recession/slowdown. With Corbyn's Labour a Tory 1992 style victory is very possible in 2022.
The government majority, assuming the Tories lose B&R, is essentially zero. Illness or death on the government benches could see a VoNC at any time.
And the other risk is that people like Grieve get deselected. And once they're deselected, what's keeping them in the Conservative Party except fear of a Corbyn government?
Nothing. Minority governments have survived before. There are dozens of MPs now who know that their Parliamentary salary is over at the next election.
Grieve and co are most likely to pull the trigger now or in the next few weeks and months. If we can get through the event horizon of Brexit and beyond why would they pull it next year or the year after? If they VONC now they might stop Brexit but once Brexit has happened it will be closing the stable door after the horse has bolted.
I think there should be a U-shape on probability of next election year. This year has a decent chance, next year less, 2021 quite slim, then 2022 quite likely again.
But we already have a minority government, just propped by S&C from the DUP. A two party minority government losing (say) an MP a year through by-elections, will drop to a negative six majority by the time of the next election.
The only thing, then, that holding it together is the purported unwillingness of Heidi Allen to put Corbyn into power.
I'm not saying that it won't happen - only that every MP they lose, is a majority of two knocked off. It's also worth noting that if frustrated Remainers flee to the LibDems (which they may or may not do), then "fear of Corbyn" ceases to be much of a motivator.
Anyone who thinks Corbyn in Downing Street is better than any variety of Brexit is insane.
I'm insane.
Note however that I don't think Corbyn in Downing Street actually GOOD. And you don't avoid the first because of the second. Corbyn in Downing Street is a likely consequence of Brexit
I think it is likely now that the Democrats will prefer the small chance of beating Trump with Harris and Warren to the strong chance of beating Trump with Biden
Did you see my proposal on the last but one thread? I suggested how we can test your hypothesis with science, and even offered to pay for it.
"Today in the European Parliament the moderators of the session decided to pick the pettiest of fights with British MEPs. First they took issue with disillusioned Green MEP Magid Magid for wearing a hat, then they had a go at Scottish Brexit Party MEP Louis Stedman-Bryce for using the word “rubbish”"
How about May as head of a government of national unity?
Edit to add: I reckon Corbyn might go for that for the shit and giggles
That would be entertaining, but I can't see any circumstances in which Labour agrees to support anyone other than Corbyn. Given that the other opposition parties would almost certainly also do so, at least on the temporary basis I mentioned, it might be possible if a handful of soon-to-be-ex-Tory MPs decide that a no-deal crash-out is so completely unacceptable that they have no choice.
Anyone who thinks Corbyn in Downing Street is better than any variety of Brexit is insane.
I think the most likely outcome of No Deal is a Corbyn government.
I doubt it. Brexit will have been delivered, the schism with the right will be closed, while Corbyn unless he commits to Rejoin will be outflanked by the Lib Dems with the Europhiles.
If the Lib Dems capture the Europhile zeitgeist and with the Tories capturing the Brexiteers, I can foresee Labour coming third at the next election.
Labour is left in No Man's Land once we have any form of Brexit. Do they live with it? Do they try and re-open it? Do they fight the LibDems as the party of Rejoin? And Corbyn as their leader is the Man Who Couldn't Stop Brexit.
Worse than that, many on his own side know in their heart of hearts that Corbyn is the Man Who Didn't Want To Stop Brexit.
Lib Dems will at the least play the role of what was pre-referendum UKIP in years to come, the obsessives banging on about Europe. They will play the rejoin card, but Labour will be torn.
The threshold, right now, and its immediate aftermath is the dangerous part for the Tories. Once we've Brexited though we can move on.
Not really, we've got 5 years of tedious trade talks still to come and constant arguments from people like Baker, Francois, Bone etc that we're too close to the EU.
I think it is likely now that the Democrats will prefer the small chance of beating Trump with Harris and Warren to the strong chance of beating Trump with Biden
Did you see my proposal on the last but one thread? I suggested how we can test your hypothesis with science, and even offered to pay for it.
If you somehow believe a poll you pay for will disprove every other poll (including those taken after the first Democratic debates where Harris and Warren got plenty of coverage) and show Harris and Warren trouncing Trump but Trump trouncing Biden, be my guest and do one!
For exporting outside the EU's customs area, you need a fair amount of paperwork.
The real hassle is going to be on exports to the US. They are utterly fanatical about getting proper Rules of Origin documentation, and if British goods contain EU components, we need to make sure that we have all the right paperwork. (And that means getting customs stamps from the UK on import of a component and from the French on the export. It's a right palava.)
Thinking about it, it could be a real pain irrespective. You see, right now, we simply declare that a component was sourced inside the EU customs zone. But once we've left, they will demand to see the import documentation for the widget. In the immediate aftermath, we'll lack customs documents for components imported from the EU. I hope the US is flexible on this.
Would it be cynical and/or unkind of me to wonder whether Gavin Williamson had anything to do with the leak of Sir Kim Darroch’s diplomatic billets doux?
Given he wasn't a minister at the time of one of the emails, it would be pretty remarkable if it was him.
Not really. Someone trawls the archive to get the mails. An ex- minister with good journalistic contacts and with a reputation for leaking is a good conduit or source of advice as to how one might go around getting such stuff into the hands of a journalist.
He has reason to get his revenge on the civil service and Mrs May. He has reason to help Boris. He is now, apparently, in line for a plum position in government. If Boris is PM the chances of any action being taken against him are low. Boris gets deniability but gets the benefit of such a leak. The Brexiteers are delighted. Gavin gets his revenge.
Not that implausible.
Do you think the leak benefited Boris? I don't see how. It embarrassed him, brought the video of him saying similar back to the fore, put him under the spot and cross-examination regarding backing Darroch.
Considering Boris's strategy to date was to play it smart and not rock the horses, that was more like lighting a stick of dynamite and chucking it at the horses to see how they run. Made no sense whatsoever with his strategy.
Yes, I do think it benefited Boris. He knew he was highly likely to win. And it opens up a plum position for someone more to the liking of the Brexiteers/pro-US gang. The fuss about the emails and his answer is a three-day wonder. The long-term benefits of having his man in Washington are more long-lasting.
That doesn't mean he was behind it or knew about it. But it may have been the calculation of whoever did do it or encouraged it.
Gove also said after we voted to Leave we’d hold all the aces.
Gove is usually wrong on Brexit or has he started using again?
Note - he doesn't say where Jenny's statement is wrong. It might be that it's not 9m but 17.4m
Yes. The right thing for Michael to do is not go on a rude trump type attack, but explain the inaccuracy by explaining what the no deal plan is for sheep.
Brexit will have been delivered, the schism with the right will be closed
ROFL
The blame game between the various Brexit factions hasn't even started yet...
Yes it has. We blame Remainer May, Remainer Hammond . . .
On the Brexit side there is nothing to blame. Though Fox and Gove do seem to be going "native".
I’m sorry but you do talk shite with little or no thought around it, maybe if you took a few minutes before you dived in to think about it and take on board other people’s viewsit might help.
If Boris can survive until the end of the year having taken us out even No Deal, I think he can survive until 2022. At which point teething problems will be largely behind us and even if there has been a slowdown there's no guarantee an unelectable opposition will win.
Kinnock failed in his second election even though the Tories had been in power during quite a bad recession/slowdown. With Corbyn's Labour a Tory 1992 style victory is very possible in 2022.
The government majority, assuming the Tories lose B&R, is essentially zero. Illness or death on the government benches could see a VoNC at any time.
And the other risk is that people like Grieve get deselected. And once they're deselected, what's keeping them in the Conservative Party except fear of a Corbyn government?
I agree. I can't see this administration going all the way until 2022. A working majority of 1 is far too small.
I think that you mean to say that a majority of one isn’t a working one?
Would it be cynical and/or unkind of me to wonder whether Gavin Williamson had anything to do with the leak of Sir Kim Darroch’s diplomatic billets doux?
Given he wasn't a minister at the time of one of the emails, it would be pretty remarkable if it was him.
Not really. Someone trawls the archive to get the mails. An ex- minister with good journalistic contacts and with a reputation for leaking is a good conduit or source of advice as to how one might go around getting such stuff into the hands of a journalist.
He has reason to get his revenge on the civil service and Mrs May. He has reason to help Boris. He is now, apparently, in line for a plum position in government. If Boris is PM the chances of any action being taken against him are low. Boris gets deniability but gets the benefit of such a leak. The Brexiteers are delighted. Gavin gets his revenge.
Not that implausible.
Shows how shambolic the government was at the time. A real wild west with everyone out for themselves. Inevitable when the PM's patronage goes.
I think it is likely now that the Democrats will prefer the small chance of beating Trump with Harris and Warren to the strong chance of beating Trump with Biden
Did you see my proposal on the last but one thread? I suggested how we can test your hypothesis with science, and even offered to pay for it.
If you somehow believe a poll you pay for will disprove every other poll (including those taken after the first Democratic debates where Harris and Warren got plenty of coverage) and show Harris and Warren trouncing Trump but Trump trouncing Biden, be my guest and do one!
Firstly, the whole point is that you and I would both work together to create the poll. The goal isn't for one of us to be proven right, the goal is to find out the truth.
Secondly, the hypothesis that we're testing is about how people feel about Biden relative to other candidates once they are exposed to them via watching a 30 second video clip. Can you think of a better way to understand how people will react to the candidates once they know them better?
I see we are still in fantasy land with the Brexiteers.
I think Brexit is voodoo economics on steroids.
Boris is going to endure a baptism of fire that is for sure.
I actually think Boris is going to suffer more than usual politicians when he becomes unpopular as he will be unable to adjust to the intensity of being hated in the way he will. No joking or bumbling is going to get him out of the hole he is heading down...
Psychologically you are probably right. The Bozo has a need to be liked and has honed his schtick to that effect, and seems genuinely hurt when it doesn’t work and his opponents wish to engage on the politics. He hasn’t yet taken on board the change in his persona from the lovable buffoon of 2012 to the widely hated symbol of division that he became in 2016.
Would it be cynical and/or unkind of me to wonder whether Gavin Williamson had anything to do with the leak of Sir Kim Darroch’s diplomatic billets doux?
Given he wasn't a minister at the time of one of the emails, it would be pretty remarkable if it was him.
Not really. Someone trawls the archive to get the mails. An ex- minister with good journalistic contacts and with a reputation for leaking is a good conduit or source of advice as to how one might go around getting such stuff into the hands of a journalist.
He has reason to get his revenge on the civil service and Mrs May. He has reason to help Boris. He is now, apparently, in line for a plum position in government. If Boris is PM the chances of any action being taken against him are low. Boris gets deniability but gets the benefit of such a leak. The Brexiteers are delighted. Gavin gets his revenge.
Not that implausible.
Do you think the leak benefited Boris? I don't see how. It embarrassed him, brought the video of him saying similar back to the fore, put him under the spot and cross-examination regarding backing Darroch.
Considering Boris's strategy to date was to play it smart and not rock the horses, that was more like lighting a stick of dynamite and chucking it at the horses to see how they run. Made no sense whatsoever with his strategy.
Yes, I do think it benefited Boris. He knew he was highly likely to win. And it opens up a plum position for someone more to the liking of the Brexiteers/pro-US gang. The fuss about the emails and his answer is a three-day wonder. The long-term benefits of having his man in Washington are more long-lasting.
That doesn't mean he was behind it or knew about it. But it may have been the calculation of whoever did do it or encouraged it.
But the Ambassador was due to retire at the end of the year anyway, so Boris was always going to pick his successor.
Oh for goodness sake we have to be able to distinguish between a pun based upon a sterotype and actual discrimination. I doubt Hammond actually believe 'girls are less able to fly a plane. Puns about homosexuals organising the cushions, white men not being able to dance, mother-in-laws, women parking, Irish/Polish people doing illogical things, etc, etc are ok. It is alright to tell jokes about these things. My wife and I will often quip about each others inadequacies along these lines. Neither of us believes it in real life.
Harry is one of the multitude of snowflakes around who like to be offended with just about anything
I forgot of course you get ribbed re turnips, but I'm guessing you don't take offence and those ribbing you don't actually think your consumption or involvement with said vegetable is any greater than that of the rest of us.
OT. What's going on with ex pop starsand small venues at the moment?. Apparently a few members of Jamiroquai are playing in a bar which takes about 30 tonight in Villefranche and I've just heard that Spandau Ballet are on in Hale Barnes! Thicko's constituency.
For exporting outside the EU's customs area, you need a fair amount of paperwork.
The real hassle is going to be on exports to the US. They are utterly fanatical about getting proper Rules of Origin documentation, and if British goods contain EU components, we need to make sure that we have all the right paperwork. (And that means getting customs stamps from the UK on import of a component and from the French on the export. It's a right palava.)
Thinking about it, it could be a real pain irrespective. You see, right now, we simply declare that a component was sourced inside the EU customs zone. But once we've left, they will demand to see the import documentation for the widget. In the immediate aftermath, we'll lack customs documents for components imported from the EU. I hope the US is flexible on this.
My understanding of the USA rules on Rules of Origin is that it depends on whether you are claiming preferential tariffs or non preferential. i.e are you claiming lower traiffs because of an FTA. If you are claiming as part of an FTA you have to prove the rules of origin meet the criteria in the FTA in the customs doc and it is not straightforward.
If you are using non-preferential then with the USA you need to mark the product with where it comes from and on the customs from state non-preferential tariff and hence pay the tariff, but you do not need any doc to prove the ROI (because you are claiming no preferential treatment).
I saw a survey that 70% of goods that could use an FTA preferential tariff into the US did not use them because the process of proving origin was so complex.
Fantastic news! It takes two to tango. A backstopless deal would be ideal but if they don't want there will be consequences and I can live with that.
So you’re applauding a likely return of problems at the border when the infrastructure goes up!
No I'm applauding playing hardball, which is no different whatsoever to what Varadkar has been doing.
The second they're willing to compromise and treat us as equals rather than supplicants then I'd be happy to have an equitable deal.
On matters of trade, we are not equals. Just as we will not be if and when we try to negotiate new trade arrangements with the US. We have certain tactical advantages, and other disadvantages, but Europe is quite simply a much larger economic body.
In every US trade agreement, ISDS panels are three member, of which two have to be American.
I can't see them changing that for us.
Out of interest what's the voting record of those ISDS panels ?
Isn't it more likely, though, that after the initial VoNC, Corbyn/someone else stitches the conspirators up, and they wind up failing to assemble a working majority within the 14 days, leading to another GE? You'd have to make that a pretty likely outcome, which has got to stay a few hands, surely.
Certainly a possible outcome, but have they lost much in that scenario? In addition, why would Corbyn stitch them up? He'd relish the possibility of going into a GE with the aura of already being PM in a scenario where he'd prevented a disastrous no-deal Tory crash out.
Yes, but he might also relish leading a GE campaign against a Tory party in disarray just after a disastrous no-deal crash out. He still wants out of the EU, and this way he gets to blame the Tories.
It's like 4D chess
The risk for Corbyn is that he's seen as an accessory to Tory No Deal Brexit, and loses his metropolitan Remain supporters to the LibDems.
On the other hand. If he is seen to have enabled an extension, what does that mean for Labour Leavers? Or, as @justin124 suggests, are they not so bothered by Brexit as the Conservatives?
An extension is only a prelude to revocation. There is no point to an extension without further negotiations - and they aren't on the table. So enabling an extension is just enabling the eventual revocation of our A50 request.
I think it is likely now that the Democrats will prefer the small chance of beating Trump with Harris and Warren to the strong chance of beating Trump with Biden
Did you see my proposal on the last but one thread? I suggested how we can test your hypothesis with science, and even offered to pay for it.
If you somehow believe a poll you pay for will disprove every other poll (including those taken after the first Democratic debates where Harris and Warren got plenty of coverage) and show Harris and Warren trouncing Trump but Trump trouncing Biden, be my guest and do one!
Firstly, the whole point is that you and I would both work together to create the poll. The goal isn't for one of us to be proven right, the goal is to find out the truth.
Secondly, the hypothesis that we're testing is about how people feel about Biden relative to other candidates once they are exposed to them via watching a 30 second video clip. Can you think of a better way to understand how people will react to the candidates once they know them better?
At the end of the day either you are a centrist like Biden with a rustbelt background from Scranton able to take on Trump in the key rustbelt and Midwest swing states or you are not but a left liberal from a wealthy coastal state, no matter how brilliant your TV package
Would it be cynical and/or unkind of me to wonder whether Gavin Williamson had anything to do with the leak of Sir Kim Darroch’s diplomatic billets doux?
Given he wasn't a minister at the time of one of the emails, it would be pretty remarkable if it was him.
Not really. Someone trawls the archive to get the mails. An ex- minister with good journalistic contacts and with a reputation for leaking is a good conduit or source of advice as to how one might go around getting such stuff into the hands of a journalist.
He has reason to get his revenge on the civil service and Mrs May. He has reason to help Boris. He is now, apparently, in line for a plum position in government. If Boris is PM the chances of any action being taken against him are low. Boris gets deniability but gets the benefit of such a leak. The Brexiteers are delighted. Gavin gets his revenge.
Not that implausible.
Do you think the leak benefited Boris? I don't see how. It embarrassed him, brought the video of him saying similar back to the fore, put him under the spot and cross-examination regarding backing Darroch.
Considering Boris's strategy to date was to play it smart and not rock the horses, that was more like lighting a stick of dynamite and chucking it at the horses to see how they run. Made no sense whatsoever with his strategy.
Yes, I do think it benefited Boris. He knew he was highly likely to win. And it opens up a plum position for someone more to the liking of the Brexiteers/pro-US gang. The fuss about the emails and his answer is a three-day wonder. The long-term benefits of having his man in Washington are more long-lasting.
That doesn't mean he was behind it or knew about it. But it may have been the calculation of whoever did do it or encouraged it.
But the Ambassador was due to retire at the end of the year anyway, so Boris was always going to pick his successor.
Interestingly, I know Farage was mooted as Ambassador to the US by some excitable media. But from Boris's and the Tories perspective it might just be the way to kill off the Brexit party as it is nothing without Farage. Trump gets a sympathetic person in the Ambassador role, Farage gets a foot on the ladder to the "trough" in America and Boris gets to wipe the Brexit party out...
Lambs to the slaughter for the death cult Leavers.
If you are a meat eater by definition most lambs will be raised for your consumption, if you are a vegetarian they will not be and indeed most would probably never be raised at all if all followed your lead, whether a Lamb is slaughtered in the UK post No Deal Brexit or slaughtered in the UK and eaten in France or Germany or sent outside the EU to New Zealand or the US to be eaten the lamb is still facing the same fate regardless
For exporting outside the EU's customs area, you need a fair amount of paperwork.
The real hassle is going to be on exports to the US. They are utterly fanatical about getting proper Rules of Origin documentation, and if British goods contain EU components, we need to make sure that we have all the right paperwork. (And that means getting customs stamps from the UK on import of a component and from the French on the export. It's a right palava.)
Thinking about it, it could be a real pain irrespective. You see, right now, we simply declare that a component was sourced inside the EU customs zone. But once we've left, they will demand to see the import documentation for the widget. In the immediate aftermath, we'll lack customs documents for components imported from the EU. I hope the US is flexible on this.
My understanding of the USA rules on Rules of Origin is that it depends on whether you are claiming preferential tariffs or non preferential. i.e are you claiming lower traiffs because of an FTA. If you are claiming as part of an FTA you have to prove the rules of origin meet the criteria in the FTA in the customs doc and it is not straightforward.
If you are using non-preferential then with the USA you need to mark the product with where it comes from and on the customs from state non-preferential tariff and hence pay the tariff, but you do not need any doc to prove the ROI (because you are claiming no preferential treatment).
I saw a survey that 70% of goods that could use an FTA preferential tariff into the US did not use them because the process of proving origin was so complex.
I'm involved with a business selling battery backup systems - and the biggest market for them is the US. We manufacture in the UK and France, with components sourced from China, Singapore and (occasionally) Germany.
I completely buy what you say. We benefit from (and perhaps even depend on) preferential tariff access, but it is an incredibly complex process, particularly as the US government is incredibly keen to avoid allowing Chinese goods into the US at low rates of tariff by the back door. We've had shipments sent back to us (at enormous expense) because they didn't feel we'd done a proper job of documenting stuff.
Hopefully, the US will cut us a little slack in the aftermath of Brexit, but it's hard to tell. So much is in the hands of individual customs officers. Separately, the thing that most worries me is that the UK-Singapore FTA has not been rolled over yet. I know they're working on it, and Singapore should be easy, but it hasn't been completed yet,
I think it is likely now that the Democrats will prefer the small chance of beating Trump with Harris and Warren to the strong chance of beating Trump with Biden
Did you see my proposal on the last but one thread? I suggested how we can test your hypothesis with science, and even offered to pay for it.
If you somehow believe a poll you pay for will disprove every other poll (including those taken after the first Democratic debates where Harris and Warren got plenty of coverage) and show Harris and Warren trouncing Trump but Trump trouncing Biden, be my guest and do one!
Firstly, the whole point is that you and I would both work together to create the poll. The goal isn't for one of us to be proven right, the goal is to find out the truth.
Secondly, the hypothesis that we're testing is about how people feel about Biden relative to other candidates once they are exposed to them via watching a 30 second video clip. Can you think of a better way to understand how people will react to the candidates once they know them better?
At the end of the day either you are a centrist like Biden with a rustbelt background from Scranton able to take on Trump in the key rustbelt and Midwest swing states or you are not but a left liberal from a wealthy coastal state, no matter how brilliant your TV package
And let's find that out with real, actual data!
Aren't you excited to put your hypothesis to a test?
I think it is likely now that the Democrats will prefer the small chance of beating Trump with Harris and Warren to the strong chance of beating Trump with Biden
Did you see my proposal on the last but one thread? I suggested how we can test your hypothesis with science, and even offered to pay for it.
If you somehow believe a poll you pay for will disprove every other poll (including those taken after the first Democratic debates where Harris and Warren got plenty of coverage) and show Harris and Warren trouncing Trump but Trump trouncing Biden, be my guest and do one!
Firstly, the whole point is that you and I would both work together to create the poll. The goal isn't for one of us to be proven right, the goal is to find out the truth.
Secondly, the hypothesis that we're testing is about how people feel about Biden relative to other candidates once they are exposed to them via watching a 30 second video clip. Can you think of a better way to understand how people will react to the candidates once they know them better?
At the end of the day either you are a centrist like Biden with a rustbelt background from Scranton able to take on Trump in the key rustbelt and Midwest swing states or you are not but a left liberal from a wealthy coastal state, no matter how brilliant your TV package
Trump is an out-and-out member of the coastal elite who beat a centrist with a background in Illinois and Arkansas last time. The theory that being from a wealthy coastal state dooms you in the rustbelt is disproven by 2016.
Lambs to the slaughter for the death cult Leavers.
If you are a meat eater by definition most lambs will be raised for your consumption, if you are a vegetarian they will not be and indeed most would probably never be raised at all if all followed your lead, whether a Lamb is slaughtered in the UK post No Deal Brexit or slaughtered in the UK and eaten in France or Germany or sent outside the EU to New Zealand or the US to be eaten the lamb is still facing the same fate regardless
Ah, the Marie Antoinette approach: let them eat lamb.
I suspect the sheep pyres would be a more doleful sight on television.
Fantastic news! It takes two to tango. A backstopless deal would be ideal but if they don't want there will be consequences and I can live with that.
So you’re applauding a likely return of problems at the border when the infrastructure goes up!
No I'm applauding playing hardball, which is no different whatsoever to what Varadkar has been doing.
The second they're willing to compromise and treat us as equals rather than supplicants then I'd be happy to have an equitable deal.
On matters of trade, we are not equals. Just as we will not be if and when we try to negotiate new trade arrangements with the US. We have certain tactical advantages, and other disadvantages, but Europe is quite simply a much larger economic body.
In every US trade agreement, ISDS panels are three member, of which two have to be American.
I can't see them changing that for us.
Out of interest what's the voting record of those ISDS panels ?
The NAFTA ones have been pretty appalling, going well beyond what one might consider to be NTBs. I don't think anyone here would consider that a law requiring that foods that are made with GMOs are labeled as such would be an illegal NTB. NAFTA tribunals did.
I know less about the South Korea and Australia ISDSs.
Personally, I would prefer that international arbitration is used, because it removes any perception of bias.
Would it be cynical and/or unkind of me to wonder whether Gavin Williamson had anything to do with the leak of Sir Kim Darroch’s diplomatic billets doux?
Given he wasn't a minister at the time of one of the emails, it would be pretty remarkable if it was him.
Not really. Someone trawls the archive to get the mails. An ex- minister with good journalistic contacts and with a reputation for leaking is a good conduit or source of advice as to how one might go around getting such stuff into the hands of a journalist.
He has reason to get his revenge on the civil service and Mrs May. He has reason to help Boris. He is now, apparently, in line for a plum position in government. If Boris is PM the chances of any action being taken against him are low. Boris gets deniability but gets the benefit of such a leak. The Brexiteers are delighted. Gavin gets his revenge.
Not that implausible.
Do you think the leak benefited Boris? I don't see how. It embarrassed him, brought the video of him saying similar back to the fore, put him under the spot and cross-examination regarding backing Darroch.
Considering Boris's strategy to date was to play it smart and not rock the horses, that was more like lighting a stick of dynamite and chucking it at the horses to see how they run. Made no sense whatsoever with his strategy.
Yes, I do think it benefited Boris. He knew he was highly likely to win. And it opens up a plum position for someone more to the liking of the Brexiteers/pro-US gang. The fuss about the emails and his answer is a three-day wonder. The long-term benefits of having his man in Washington are more long-lasting.
That doesn't mean he was behind it or knew about it. But it may have been the calculation of whoever did do it or encouraged it.
But the Ambassador was due to retire at the end of the year anyway, so Boris was always going to pick his successor.
True. But if you're in a hurry - see the reports of Boris wanting a quick win with the US on trade - then not getting someone in place until January 2020 is a long time to wait.
Would it be cynical and/or unkind of me to wonder whether Gavin Williamson had anything to do with the leak of Sir Kim Darroch’s diplomatic billets doux?
Given he wasn't a minister at the time of one of the emails, it would be pretty remarkable if it was him.
Not really. Someone trawls the archive to get the mails. An ex- minister with good journalistic contacts and with a reputation for leaking is a good conduit or source of advice as to how one might go around getting such stuff into the hands of a journalist.
He has reason to get his revenge on the civil service and Mrs May. He has reason to help Boris. He is now, apparently, in line for a plum position in government. If Boris is PM the chances of any action being taken against him are low. Boris gets deniability but gets the benefit of such a leak. The Brexiteers are delighted. Gavin gets his revenge.
Not that implausible.
Do you think the leak benefited Boris? I don't see how. It embarrassed him, brought the video of him saying similar back to the fore, put him under the spot and cross-examination regarding backing Darroch.
Considering Boris's strategy to date was to play it smart and not rock the horses, that was more like lighting a stick of dynamite and chucking it at the horses to see how they run. Made no sense whatsoever with his strategy.
Yes, I do think it benefited Boris. He knew he was highly likely to win. And it opens up a plum position for someone more to the liking of the Brexiteers/pro-US gang. The fuss about the emails and his answer is a three-day wonder. The long-term benefits of having his man in Washington are more long-lasting.
That doesn't mean he was behind it or knew about it. But it may have been the calculation of whoever did do it or encouraged it.
But the Ambassador was due to retire at the end of the year anyway, so Boris was always going to pick his successor.
True. But if you're in a hurry - see the reports of Boris wanting a quick win with the US on trade - then not getting someone in place until January 2020 is a long time to wait.
I can't see how a US trade deal would get through Parliament.
No LibDem, SNP or Labour MP would back it because of "the NHS". And rural Coneservative MPs are going to hate it too.
Lambs to the slaughter for the death cult Leavers.
If you are a meat eater by definition most lambs will be raised for your consumption, if you are a vegetarian they will not be and indeed most would probably never be raised at all if all followed your lead, whether a Lamb is slaughtered in the UK post No Deal Brexit or slaughtered in the UK and eaten in France or Germany or sent outside the EU to New Zealand or the US to be eaten the lamb is still facing the same fate regardless
Presumably we'll all be watching the sheep bonfires whilst simultaneously complaining about the food shortages.
Comments
If the Lib Dems capture the Europhile zeitgeist and with the Tories capturing the Brexiteers, I can foresee Labour coming third at the next election.
Kinnock failed in his second election even though the Tories had been in power during quite a bad recession/slowdown. With Corbyn's Labour a Tory 1992 style victory is very possible in 2022.
The blame game between the various Brexit factions hasn't even started yet...
However I really don't see that - a lot of very small things we haven't thought about are likely to go slight wrong and some of those will cascade to become bigger issues.
And once things go wrong who exactly is going to be blamed (hint it won't be the opposition) and suddenly Labour may become many peoples least worst option...
Farage has said in that scenario he'd support a "coupon" style election agreement with Boris's Tories.
Corbyn won't seek or get a "coupon" with Labour so a 1918 style landslide for Boris is possible.
https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1151527757341429762
On the Brexit side there is nothing to blame. Though Fox and Gove do seem to be going "native".
Just areas of the country with farms, perhaps...
Interesting article:
"How Due Process Fell Victim to Good Intentions: A Veteran Court Reporter Looks Back
written by Christie Blatchford"
https://quillette.com/2019/07/14/how-due-process-fell-victim-to-good-intentions-a-veteran-court-reporter-looks-back/
Those UK drivers without the paperwork will be held back at sites in Kent.
I will make sterotypes joke at the expense of my wife re diet or sport (as she is Scottish) about being afraid of spiders or messing up the parking (because she is a girl). She will be rude about the English and about my DIY skills (or lack of), etc etc. We don't actually mean any of it.
If Boris thinks he will walk it, he will get a rude awakening!
For most people, all Brexit issues big and small will be down to the Tory party...
And the other risk is that people like Grieve get deselected. And once they're deselected, what's keeping them in the Conservative Party except fear of a Corbyn government?
I think Brexit is voodoo economics on steroids.
Boris is going to endure a baptism of fire that is for sure.
I actually think Boris is going to suffer more than usual politicians when he becomes unpopular as he will be unable to adjust to the intensity of being hated in the way he will. No joking or bumbling is going to get him out of the hole he is heading down...
The real hassle is going to be on exports to the US. They are utterly fanatical about getting proper Rules of Origin documentation, and if British goods contain EU components, we need to make sure that we have all the right paperwork. (And that means getting customs stamps from the UK on import of a component and from the French on the export. It's a right palava.)
For Labour in 1992, Labour won 230 seats in 1987 plus 70 targets is 300: That is short of a majority and likely behind the Tories. I laughed when I was told of the campaigning constraints on targeting as it made the stuff serious politicians have been saying over the years meaningless about forming the next Government etc...
Lib Dems will at the least play the role of what was pre-referendum UKIP in years to come, the obsessives banging on about Europe. They will play the rejoin card, but Labour will be torn.
The threshold, right now, and its immediate aftermath is the dangerous part for the Tories. Once we've Brexited though we can move on.
We have certain tactical advantages, and other disadvantages, but Europe is quite simply a much larger economic body.
He has reason to get his revenge on the civil service and Mrs May. He has reason to help Boris. He is now, apparently, in line for a plum position in government. If Boris is PM the chances of any action being taken against him are low. Boris gets deniability but gets the benefit of such a leak. The Brexiteers are delighted. Gavin gets his revenge.
Not that implausible.
Grieve and co are most likely to pull the trigger now or in the next few weeks and months. If we can get through the event horizon of Brexit and beyond why would they pull it next year or the year after? If they VONC now they might stop Brexit but once Brexit has happened it will be closing the stable door after the horse has bolted.
I think there should be a U-shape on probability of next election year. This year has a decent chance, next year less, 2021 quite slim, then 2022 quite likely again.
It might work, if the negatives are not too terrible.
I don't remember Bush senior's manner in office too well, but I think you may have to go back to Nixon to buck that.
We can see Biden is a flawed candidate, but I just wonder if the whole Mid West thing still holds, that the idea of the president as someone you'd get on well with in a bar is so deeply ingrained as to be a rule. The corollary is that all the female candidates, who still.have to be pin sharp to get where they are, could be at more of a disadvantage in the US system than elsewhere.
Just a casual idea, could be rubbish....
Its hardly Apollo 18.
Considering Boris's strategy to date was to play it smart and not rock the horses, that was more like lighting a stick of dynamite and chucking it at the horses to see how they run. Made no sense whatsoever with his strategy.
Politically then if Bozo goes for no deal he can carry the can for the problems .
I can't see them changing that for us.
The only thing, then, that holding it together is the purported unwillingness of Heidi Allen to put Corbyn into power.
I'm not saying that it won't happen - only that every MP they lose, is a majority of two knocked off. It's also worth noting that if frustrated Remainers flee to the LibDems (which they may or may not do), then "fear of Corbyn" ceases to be much of a motivator.
I'm insane.
Note however that I don't think Corbyn in Downing Street actually GOOD. And you don't avoid the first because of the second. Corbyn in Downing Street is a likely consequence of Brexit
https://order-order.com
That doesn't mean he was behind it or knew about it. But it may have been the calculation of whoever did do it or encouraged it.
Secondly, the hypothesis that we're testing is about how people feel about Biden relative to other candidates once they are exposed to them via watching a 30 second video clip. Can you think of a better way to understand how people will react to the candidates once they know them better?
Psychologically you are probably right. The Bozo has a need to be liked and has honed his schtick to that effect, and seems genuinely hurt when it doesn’t work and his opponents wish to engage on the politics. He hasn’t yet taken on board the change in his persona from the lovable buffoon of 2012 to the widely hated symbol of division that he became in 2016.
We can have lamb and eat it.
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/gallery/2019/jul/17/the-city-has-changed-beyond-all-recognition-derelict-london-in-pictures
Its surprising that London has so much 'brownfield' dereliction.
If you are using non-preferential then with the USA you need to mark the product with where it comes from and on the customs from state non-preferential tariff and hence pay the tariff, but you do not need any doc to prove the ROI (because you are claiming no preferential treatment).
I saw a survey that 70% of goods that could use an FTA preferential tariff into the US did not use them because the process of proving origin was so complex.
I completely buy what you say. We benefit from (and perhaps even depend on) preferential tariff access, but it is an incredibly complex process, particularly as the US government is incredibly keen to avoid allowing Chinese goods into the US at low rates of tariff by the back door. We've had shipments sent back to us (at enormous expense) because they didn't feel we'd done a proper job of documenting stuff.
Hopefully, the US will cut us a little slack in the aftermath of Brexit, but it's hard to tell. So much is in the hands of individual customs officers. Separately, the thing that most worries me is that the UK-Singapore FTA has not been rolled over yet. I know they're working on it, and Singapore should be easy, but it hasn't been completed yet,
Aren't you excited to put your hypothesis to a test?
I suspect the sheep pyres would be a more doleful sight on television.
I know less about the South Korea and Australia ISDSs.
Personally, I would prefer that international arbitration is used, because it removes any perception of bias.
No LibDem, SNP or Labour MP would back it because of "the NHS". And rural Coneservative MPs are going to hate it too.
Or am I missing something?