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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden drops to second place in California while his lead’s dow
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden drops to second place in California while his lead’s down to just 4 in New Hampshire
Another American White House race is starting to dominate political betting which is a reminder of just how how long PB has been going. WH2020 contest be the fifth such race that PB has covered and, indeed, it was the battle for the Democratic nomination in 2004 that first prompted me to create the site.
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Gove is usually wrong on Brexit or has he started using again?
To stop a no deal Brexit she votes she has no confidence in a Boris Johnson government.
So instead of being called a pound shop Gordon Brown she’ll be the Ramsay MacDonald de nos jours.
That said, such is that enormity that I believe even a Francois, or Baker, and certainly a Johnson and Hunt would be equally transformed.
Please, please, pretty please with almonds on pick Chad Sayers for the Ashes.
Not only will it mean England win handsomely, but it means Glos can sign a halfway competent bowler.
They won’t do it on July 24, because he’ll be new.
They won’t do it on September 3, because he’ll claim to be trying to orchestrate a New Deal.
Ditto the beginning of October.
By October 31 it’ll be too late.
Edit: it seems more likely to me that enough Tories will defect that the government loses its majority.
But as he is not very bright he bombed baaadly.
Now, it's worth noting that the first poll is by Change Research, which is a reasonably well known polling organisation. The second is from "Focus on Rural America" which seems to have exactly no historical polls, or crosstabs, or information on how they conduct their research.
Where there happens to be a by-election.
This isn't just name-recognition now: we're well into the formal campaigning and have already had the first debate.
Sure, there's a reasonable possibility that he doesn't win the nomination but that's even more true of every other candidate.
But they will be pariahs for a large % of the population.
This time next week Boris De Pfeffel Johnson will be on hos way to Buckingham Palace to kiss hands with Her Majesty The Queen as her 14th Prime Minister.
Just think about that for a second!
Don't have nightmares.
If there is such a thing as Remainer “strategy” they need to VONC July 25 and/or they need a to have enough Tory defectors to remove Boris’s majority and some kind of GONU in the wings waiting.
I cannot understand how amendments to various NI bills makes a difference one way or another. Parliament surely cannot “ban” No Deal as it is the default course of action.
Cast your mind back to 2008. Rudy Guiliani was running for US President. He was America's most popular Mayor. He led the Republican polls for a fair amount of time. And he had a strategy to skip Iowa and New Hampshire and build a "Florida Firewall". (I think I remember someone else with a Florida Firewall.)
Primaries end up self reinforcing much of the time. If you win Iowa, you get a boost. If you win New Hampshire, ditto. And the corrollory is that if you lose both these states, then you drop back. The big mo goes against you. (Also see: Howard Dean.)
That's why a laser like focus on Iowa and New Hampshire is still necessary. Those primaries define who matter in the subsequent few states.
Now, I happen to think that either Biden or Harris will walk South Carolina. But for Biden to be the winner, he has to be the contender after Iowa and NH. If he trails in both to Harris, then she will likely benefit in South Carolina. (Guiliani, despite millions spent in Florida, never recovered from poor results in Iowa and NH.)
Right now, Biden has been hemorrhaging votes in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. The more voters in these states see of him, the less they like him. Indeed, there's a 538 study which shows that support for Biden is inversely correlated with how much of the campaign people have seen. Given that the cohort of people - in either Iowa or New Hampshire - who have paid little attention to the race is shrinking, this is terrible news for Biden.
My final point is that, of all the candidates, it's Biden who seems be enjoying himself the least. He doesn't seem to like stumping around Iowa and New Hampshire. He seems happier in ballrooms with big donors. An unhappy candidate is one who is more likely to leave the race.
For all these reasons, centrist MPs will be trying to find some other route. As we know, the mechanics of that are opaque to say to least, so it's very far from certain that they would succeed.
TBH, I think the only sure way of stopping No Deal now might be an early VONC followed immediately by ex-Tory MPs agreeing to facilitate Corbyn to become PM (possibly by abstaining in a VONC within the 14-day period). That would be on condition that Corbyn does nothing other than agree an extension with the EU, to be used for a GE.
All very speculative, of course. But we are in a curious position where all possible avenues are impossible, so who knows?
It's the Senate, stupid. And the Democrats are giving up on it.
Justin Webb"
https://unherd.com/2019/07/whats-more-powerful-than-trump/
Edit to add: I reckon Corbyn might go for that for the shit and giggles
With those ex-Tory's out of a job either way.
As for a Boris/BXP majority, I doubt it very much. The LibDems would take too many seats for that to be a likely outcome. But, if the no-deal loons do get a majority, well, that's democracy for you.
Because the Lords have added not just this but other new amendments to the original HOC Bill this means they can have further amendments added to them when they return to the Commons tomorrow .
For a start, if there's no Brexit/Con pact, then the Leave vote could end up being split in a bunch of places. That means that in Leave-y places like Cornwall and Devon, you end up letting the LibDems in.
On the other hand, if there is a Brexit/Con pact, then (a) you have to give BXP something, like a free run at a bunch of winnable seats, and (b) you end up potentially poisoning the Conservative brand in places like Richmond Park. Now, will that matter if BXP wins Labour Leave seats? Nope. But if they don't, the Conservatives will have thrown away one bunch of seats without getting another.
It's entirely possible that you end up with a hideously hung parliament, with five parties (adding in the SNP) getting more than fifty seats, and no two parties managing to get to 325. That would be utter chaos.
*checks who is hot favourite for next Cons leader*
oh...
https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1151521774124843011?s=21
Let's face it, couldn't be more ridiculous than Johnson or Corbyn.
To be clear, I'm not saying this is the most likely scenario, just the most feasible way of ensuring we don't crash out on October 31st. I think more likely scenarios are either that we do, or that we don't because Boris realises belatedly just how disastrous a crash-out would be.
The Tory party is of course kiboshed in any of these scenarios, or any others one can imagine.
The risk for Corbyn is that he's seen as an accessory to Tory No Deal Brexit, and loses his metropolitan Remain supporters to the LibDems.
On the other hand. If he is seen to have enabled an extension, what does that mean for Labour Leavers? Or, as @justin124 suggests, are they not so bothered by Brexit as the Conservatives?
https://twitter.com/BorderIrish/status/1151517541560401920
Fantastic news! It takes two to tango. A backstopless deal would be ideal but if they don't want there will be consequences and I can live with that.
I believe it is tactic inherited from Lenin.
The only way around this, I can see, is to extend the period for the Withdrawal Agreement to (say) five years. Which the EU will like because it means more money. But which many Leavers will hate as it effectively leaves us in the EEA throught the next General Election.
So, let's assume No Deal. He then has to remain in power through a likely recession. (And by the way, I'm assuming that most of the recession is simply a consequence of the current global economic slowdown, plus a bit of a hit from firms deferring UK investments.)
It doesn't look that good for Mr Johnson. But, I could always be completely wrong.
Bottom line, it feels like it would take MPs with balls as big as Halloween pumpkins to go for this. I haven't noticed many of them.
You want to impose consequences on other people.
The second they're willing to compromise and treat us as equals rather than supplicants then I'd be happy to have an equitable deal.