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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden drops to second place in California while his lead’s dow

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden drops to second place in California while his lead’s down to just 4 in New Hampshire

Another American White House race is starting to dominate political betting which is a  reminder of just how how long PB has been going.  WH2020 contest be the fifth such race that PB has covered and, indeed, it was the battle for the Democratic nomination in 2004 that first prompted me to create the site.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    First unlike Biden..
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    Not e pluribus unum.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    Feeling confident about laying Biden and The Colonel.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    eek said:
    Gove also said after we voted to Leave we’d hold all the aces.

    Gove is usually wrong on Brexit or has he started using again?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Not e pluribus unum.

    The judge-led inquiry has been suspended.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    That's a big difference in the Kamala Harris figures of the two latest NH polls.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    FPT
    TOPPING said:

    May accepts that she shouldn't have used some of the language she used earlier post-referendum.

    Some of us did warn her.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Mayor Pete holds up well. Yang shows a flicker of life in one poll.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited July 2019

    Some of us did warn her.

    joy shall be in heaven over one sinner that repents...
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    eek said:
    Gove also said after we voted to Leave we’d hold all the aces.

    Gove is usually wrong on Brexit or has he started using again?
    Note - he doesn't say where Jenny's statement is wrong. It might be that it's not 9m but 17.4m
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    TOPPING said:

    Some of us did warn her.

    joy shall be in heaven over one sinner that repents...
    I have an idea for a thread that says she goes full circle.

    To stop a no deal Brexit she votes she has no confidence in a Boris Johnson government.

    So instead of being called a pound shop Gordon Brown she’ll be the Ramsay MacDonald de nos jours.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    TOPPING said:

    Some of us did warn her.

    joy shall be in heaven over one sinner that repents...
    I have an idea for a thread that says she goes full circle.

    To stop a no deal Brexit she votes she has no confidence in a Boris Johnson government.

    So instead of being called a pound shop Gordon Brown she’ll be the Ramsay MacDonald de nos jours.
    Hated forever by what was supposed to have been her own side? Yeah, sounds about right?
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    eek said:

    eek said:
    Gove also said after we voted to Leave we’d hold all the aces.

    Gove is usually wrong on Brexit or has he started using again?
    Note - he doesn't say where Jenny's statement is wrong. It might be that it's not 9m but 17.4m
    Yes. The right thing for Michael to do is not go on a rude trump type attack, but explain the inaccuracy by explaining what the no deal plan is for sheep.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    TOPPING said:

    Some of us did warn her.

    joy shall be in heaven over one sinner that repents...
    I have an idea for a thread that says she goes full circle.

    To stop a no deal Brexit she votes she has no confidence in a Boris Johnson government.

    So instead of being called a pound shop Gordon Brown she’ll be the Ramsay MacDonald de nos jours.
    Well that does seem to be Hammond's plan - so it wouldn't surprise me if she went the same way..
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited July 2019

    TOPPING said:

    Some of us did warn her.

    joy shall be in heaven over one sinner that repents...
    I have an idea for a thread that says she goes full circle.

    To stop a no deal Brexit she votes she has no confidence in a Boris Johnson government.

    So instead of being called a pound shop Gordon Brown she’ll be the Ramsay MacDonald de nos jours.
    Her Brexit journey, like driven-sane Liam Fox, has been quite a dramatic one. She has been at the sharp end of the briefings, negotiations, papers, and all else. It would be amazing, because she seems relatively sane, if she didn't now realise the enormity of what we might be facing and act against it.

    That said, such is that enormity that I believe even a Francois, or Baker, and certainly a Johnson and Hunt would be equally transformed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    That's a big difference in the Kamala Harris figures of the two latest NH polls.

    The market seems to have decided Kamala's debate performance is going to make her more likely for the nomination than Biden and Sanders combined. Ludicrous if you ask me, they still enjoy substantial support. I think Warren's price is about right, she might ultimately be the one..
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Pulpstar said:

    That's a big difference in the Kamala Harris figures of the two latest NH polls.

    The market seems to have decided Kamala's debate performance is going to make her more likely for the nomination than Biden and Sanders combined. Ludicrous if you ask me, they still enjoy substantial support. I think Warren's price is about right, she might ultimately be the one..
    Yes, I think that's a reasonable take. Maybe Warren is still a bit long.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Dear Selectors for the Cheating Convicts

    Please, please, pretty please with almonds on pick Chad Sayers for the Ashes.

    Not only will it mean England win handsomely, but it means Glos can sign a halfway competent bowler.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211

    TOPPING said:

    Some of us did warn her.

    joy shall be in heaven over one sinner that repents...
    I have an idea for a thread that says she goes full circle.

    To stop a no deal Brexit she votes she has no confidence in a Boris Johnson government.

    So instead of being called a pound shop Gordon Brown she’ll be the Ramsay MacDonald de nos jours.
    To be a “proper” Ramsay MacDonald she would have to stay PM and along with Philip Hammond join a government dominated by Corbyn and McDonell.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited July 2019
    I personally doubt there are enough Tories will balls to VONC Boris.

    They won’t do it on July 24, because he’ll be new.

    They won’t do it on September 3, because he’ll claim to be trying to orchestrate a New Deal.

    Ditto the beginning of October.

    By October 31 it’ll be too late.

    Edit: it seems more likely to me that enough Tories will defect that the government loses its majority.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Zephyr said:

    eek said:

    eek said:
    Gove also said after we voted to Leave we’d hold all the aces.

    Gove is usually wrong on Brexit or has he started using again?
    Note - he doesn't say where Jenny's statement is wrong. It might be that it's not 9m but 17.4m
    Yes. The right thing for Michael to do is not go on a rude trump type attack, but explain the inaccuracy by explaining what the no deal plan is for sheep.
    I think he was attempting a pun.

    But as he is not very bright he bombed baaadly.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    That's a big difference in the Kamala Harris figures of the two latest NH polls.

    That's nothing compared to the Buttigieg numbers in the most recent two Iowa polls. One has him first, with 25%, and the other has him fifth on 10%.

    Now, it's worth noting that the first poll is by Change Research, which is a reasonably well known polling organisation. The second is from "Focus on Rural America" which seems to have exactly no historical polls, or crosstabs, or information on how they conduct their research.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    FPT

    If I was the EU at this stage (and it’s unclear to me who “owns” Brexit strategy in the EU during this interregnum) do I have much incentive to alter the WA?

    After all, if I hold fast, I might be able to trigger a VONC in the House of Commons and foil Boris at the outset, leading to either a GONU or a GE.

    +1 - a VoNC looks almost unavoidable it's now just a question of timing - next Thursday would be worth it for the LOLs, and that gives time for an election in September.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    edited July 2019
    Zephyr said:

    eek said:

    eek said:
    Gove also said after we voted to Leave we’d hold all the aces.

    Gove is usually wrong on Brexit or has he started using again?
    Note - he doesn't say where Jenny's statement is wrong. It might be that it's not 9m but 17.4m
    Yes. The right thing for Michael to do is not go on a rude trump type attack, but explain the inaccuracy by explaining what the no deal plan is for sheep.
    According to Wikipedia, there are about ten times as many sheep as people in Powys.

    Where there happens to be a by-election.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    Biden's odds are nuts for someone who is still well clear in the national polls, who hasn't fallen below the high-20s all year, who still leads (if not by as much) in some early contests, bar local factors, and where proportional allocation will benefit across-the-board support.

    This isn't just name-recognition now: we're well into the formal campaigning and have already had the first debate.

    Sure, there's a reasonable possibility that he doesn't win the nomination but that's even more true of every other candidate.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    eek said:

    eek said:
    Gove also said after we voted to Leave we’d hold all the aces.

    Gove is usually wrong on Brexit or has he started using again?
    Note - he doesn't say where Jenny's statement is wrong. It might be that it's not 9m but 17.4m
    Yes. The right thing for Michael to do is not go on a rude trump type attack, but explain the inaccuracy by explaining what the no deal plan is for sheep.
    I think he was attempting a pun.

    But as he is not very bright he bombed baaadly.
    No need to ram it down our throats.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    eek said:

    FPT

    If I was the EU at this stage (and it’s unclear to me who “owns” Brexit strategy in the EU during this interregnum) do I have much incentive to alter the WA?

    After all, if I hold fast, I might be able to trigger a VONC in the House of Commons and foil Boris at the outset, leading to either a GONU or a GE.

    +1 - a VoNC looks almost unavoidable it's now just a question of timing - next Thursday would be worth it for the LOLs, and that gives time for an election in September.

    If they are going to do it, surely they have to do it straightaway, otherwise they might inadvertently trigger a dissolution of parliament at a time which would make a no-deal crash out unavoidable.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    eek said:

    FPT

    If I was the EU at this stage (and it’s unclear to me who “owns” Brexit strategy in the EU during this interregnum) do I have much incentive to alter the WA?

    After all, if I hold fast, I might be able to trigger a VONC in the House of Commons and foil Boris at the outset, leading to either a GONU or a GE.

    +1 - a VoNC looks almost unavoidable it's now just a question of timing - next Thursday would be worth it for the LOLs, and that gives time for an election in September.

    If they are going to do it, surely they have to do it straightaway, otherwise they might inadvertently trigger a dissolution of parliament at a time which would make a no-deal crash out unavoidable.
    A bit like needing to be compos mentis before you can head off to Dignitas.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    I personally doubt there are enough Tories will balls to VONC Boris.

    They won’t do it on July 24, because he’ll be new.

    They won’t do it on September 3, because he’ll claim to be trying to orchestrate a New Deal.

    Ditto the beginning of October.

    By October 31 it’ll be too late.

    Edit: it seems more likely to me that enough Tories will defect that the government loses its majority.

    If you VONC Boris you are finished in the Con party - if Hammond and Grieve have enough cushy advisor roles lined up in the city then they will go for it.

    But they will be pariahs for a large % of the population.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Walker, aye, it's a boiled frog, as when Labour wibbled about axing Miliband, or now when Labour MPs stamp their feet and say 'enough is enough' but won't leave the party (alas that Change UK failed so utterly).
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    TGOHF said:

    I personally doubt there are enough Tories will balls to VONC Boris.

    They won’t do it on July 24, because he’ll be new.

    They won’t do it on September 3, because he’ll claim to be trying to orchestrate a New Deal.

    Ditto the beginning of October.

    By October 31 it’ll be too late.

    Edit: it seems more likely to me that enough Tories will defect that the government loses its majority.

    If you VONC Boris you are finished in the Con party - if Hammond and Grieve have enough cushy advisor roles lined up in the city then they will go for it.

    But they will be pariahs for a large % of the population.

    It's why it won't be next week - come October though just as Boris tries to shut it down for 3 weeks with no plan in sight....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    If I was the EU at this stage (and it’s unclear to me who “owns” Brexit strategy in the EU during this interregnum) do I have much incentive to alter the WA?

    After all, if I hold fast, I might be able to trigger a VONC in the House of Commons and foil Boris at the outset, leading to either a GONU or a GE.

    +1 - a VoNC looks almost unavoidable it's now just a question of timing - next Thursday would be worth it for the LOLs, and that gives time for an election in September.

    If they are going to do it, surely they have to do it straightaway, otherwise they might inadvertently trigger a dissolution of parliament at a time which would make a no-deal crash out unavoidable.
    A bit like needing to be compos mentis before you can head off to Dignitas.
    LOL!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited July 2019
    Afternoon PB,

    This time next week Boris De Pfeffel Johnson will be on hos way to Buckingham Palace to kiss hands with Her Majesty The Queen as her 14th Prime Minister.

    Just think about that for a second!

    Don't have nightmares. :D
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    eek said:

    FPT

    If I was the EU at this stage (and it’s unclear to me who “owns” Brexit strategy in the EU during this interregnum) do I have much incentive to alter the WA?

    After all, if I hold fast, I might be able to trigger a VONC in the House of Commons and foil Boris at the outset, leading to either a GONU or a GE.

    +1 - a VoNC looks almost unavoidable it's now just a question of timing - next Thursday would be worth it for the LOLs, and that gives time for an election in September.

    If they are going to do it, surely they have to do it straightaway, otherwise they might inadvertently trigger a dissolution of parliament at a time which would make a no-deal crash out unavoidable.
    Yes.

    If there is such a thing as Remainer “strategy” they need to VONC July 25 and/or they need a to have enough Tory defectors to remove Boris’s majority and some kind of GONU in the wings waiting.

    I cannot understand how amendments to various NI bills makes a difference one way or another. Parliament surely cannot “ban” No Deal as it is the default course of action.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    eek said:

    FPT

    If I was the EU at this stage (and it’s unclear to me who “owns” Brexit strategy in the EU during this interregnum) do I have much incentive to alter the WA?

    After all, if I hold fast, I might be able to trigger a VONC in the House of Commons and foil Boris at the outset, leading to either a GONU or a GE.

    +1 - a VoNC looks almost unavoidable it's now just a question of timing - next Thursday would be worth it for the LOLs, and that gives time for an election in September.

    If they are going to do it, surely they have to do it straightaway, otherwise they might inadvertently trigger a dissolution of parliament at a time which would make a no-deal crash out unavoidable.
    There's no way that Con MPs will back a VoNC against their own government until it becomes the only option. I suspect that even Labour MPs (never mind the various independents) won't want to prompt a general election campaign during August.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    eek said:

    FPT

    If I was the EU at this stage (and it’s unclear to me who “owns” Brexit strategy in the EU during this interregnum) do I have much incentive to alter the WA?

    After all, if I hold fast, I might be able to trigger a VONC in the House of Commons and foil Boris at the outset, leading to either a GONU or a GE.

    +1 - a VoNC looks almost unavoidable it's now just a question of timing - next Thursday would be worth it for the LOLs, and that gives time for an election in September.

    If they are going to do it, surely they have to do it straightaway, otherwise they might inadvertently trigger a dissolution of parliament at a time which would make a no-deal crash out unavoidable.
    Yes.

    If there is such a thing as Remainer “strategy” they need to VONC July 25 and/or they need a to have enough Tory defectors to remove Boris’s majority and some kind of GONU in the wings waiting.

    I cannot understand how amendments to various NI bills makes a difference one way or another. Parliament surely cannot “ban” No Deal as it is the default course of action.
    Because of the deadline on the bill it ensures Parliament cannot be prorogued until after October 11th and the bill becomes law.

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    I personally doubt there are enough Tories will balls to VONC Boris.

    They won’t do it on July 24, because he’ll be new.

    They won’t do it on September 3, because he’ll claim to be trying to orchestrate a New Deal.

    Ditto the beginning of October.

    By October 31 it’ll be too late.

    Edit: it seems more likely to me that enough Tories will defect that the government loses its majority.

    It will be interesting to see whether any Tory MPs resign the Whip next Tuesday when the Leadership election result is announced.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited July 2019
    Animal_pb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    eek said:

    eek said:
    Gove also said after we voted to Leave we’d hold all the aces.

    Gove is usually wrong on Brexit or has he started using again?
    Note - he doesn't say where Jenny's statement is wrong. It might be that it's not 9m but 17.4m
    Yes. The right thing for Michael to do is not go on a rude trump type attack, but explain the inaccuracy by explaining what the no deal plan is for sheep.
    I think he was attempting a pun.

    But as he is not very bright he bombed baaadly.
    No need to ram it down our throats.
    Ewe asked. I remain the tup punner.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    Biden's odds are nuts for someone who is still well clear in the national polls, who hasn't fallen below the high-20s all year, who still leads (if not by as much) in some early contests, bar local factors, and where proportional allocation will benefit across-the-board support.

    This isn't just name-recognition now: we're well into the formal campaigning and have already had the first debate.

    Sure, there's a reasonable possibility that he doesn't win the nomination but that's even more true of every other candidate.

    I know you think so, but let me explain why I think you're wrong.

    Cast your mind back to 2008. Rudy Guiliani was running for US President. He was America's most popular Mayor. He led the Republican polls for a fair amount of time. And he had a strategy to skip Iowa and New Hampshire and build a "Florida Firewall". (I think I remember someone else with a Florida Firewall.)

    Primaries end up self reinforcing much of the time. If you win Iowa, you get a boost. If you win New Hampshire, ditto. And the corrollory is that if you lose both these states, then you drop back. The big mo goes against you. (Also see: Howard Dean.)

    That's why a laser like focus on Iowa and New Hampshire is still necessary. Those primaries define who matter in the subsequent few states.

    Now, I happen to think that either Biden or Harris will walk South Carolina. But for Biden to be the winner, he has to be the contender after Iowa and NH. If he trails in both to Harris, then she will likely benefit in South Carolina. (Guiliani, despite millions spent in Florida, never recovered from poor results in Iowa and NH.)

    Right now, Biden has been hemorrhaging votes in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. The more voters in these states see of him, the less they like him. Indeed, there's a 538 study which shows that support for Biden is inversely correlated with how much of the campaign people have seen. Given that the cohort of people - in either Iowa or New Hampshire - who have paid little attention to the race is shrinking, this is terrible news for Biden.

    My final point is that, of all the candidates, it's Biden who seems be enjoying himself the least. He doesn't seem to like stumping around Iowa and New Hampshire. He seems happier in ballrooms with big donors. An unhappy candidate is one who is more likely to leave the race.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    TGOHF said:

    I personally doubt there are enough Tories will balls to VONC Boris.

    They won’t do it on July 24, because he’ll be new.

    They won’t do it on September 3, because he’ll claim to be trying to orchestrate a New Deal.

    Ditto the beginning of October.

    By October 31 it’ll be too late.

    Edit: it seems more likely to me that enough Tories will defect that the government loses its majority.

    If you VONC Boris you are finished in the Con party - if Hammond and Grieve have enough cushy advisor roles lined up in the city then they will go for it.

    But they will be pariahs for a large % of the population.

    heroes to a large % as well
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited July 2019

    There's no way that Con MPs will back a VoNC against their own government until it becomes the only option. I suspect that even Labour MPs (never mind the various independents) won't want to prompt a general election campaign during August.

    I agree with both points, but look at the timing if they don't do it straightaway. We could end up with an election either straddling the crash-out date, or happening just a few days before. If the latter case leads to another hung parliament, who knows what would happen?

    For all these reasons, centrist MPs will be trying to find some other route. As we know, the mechanics of that are opaque to say to least, so it's very far from certain that they would succeed.

    TBH, I think the only sure way of stopping No Deal now might be an early VONC followed immediately by ex-Tory MPs agreeing to facilitate Corbyn to become PM (possibly by abstaining in a VONC within the 14-day period). That would be on condition that Corbyn does nothing other than agree an extension with the EU, to be used for a GE.

    All very speculative, of course. But we are in a curious position where all possible avenues are impossible, so who knows?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Zephyr said:

    eek said:

    eek said:
    Gove also said after we voted to Leave we’d hold all the aces.

    Gove is usually wrong on Brexit or has he started using again?
    Note - he doesn't say where Jenny's statement is wrong. It might be that it's not 9m but 17.4m
    Yes. The right thing for Michael to do is not go on a rude trump type attack, but explain the inaccuracy by explaining what the no deal plan is for sheep.
    There will be multiple plans depending on various scenarios
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    That's a big difference in the Kamala Harris figures of the two latest NH polls.

    That's nothing compared to the Buttigieg numbers in the most recent two Iowa polls. One has him first, with 25%, and the other has him fifth on 10%.

    Now, it's worth noting that the first poll is by Change Research, which is a reasonably well known polling organisation. The second is from "Focus on Rural America" which seems to have exactly no historical polls, or crosstabs, or information on how they conduct their research.
    Maybe the second doesn’t poll in the cities?
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    ydoethur said:

    Animal_pb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    eek said:

    eek said:
    Gove also said after we voted to Leave we’d hold all the aces.

    Gove is usually wrong on Brexit or has he started using again?
    Note - he doesn't say where Jenny's statement is wrong. It might be that it's not 9m but 17.4m
    Yes. The right thing for Michael to do is not go on a rude trump type attack, but explain the inaccuracy by explaining what the no deal plan is for sheep.
    I think he was attempting a pun.

    But as he is not very bright he bombed baaadly.
    No need to ram it down our throats.
    Ewe asked. I remain the tup punner.
    I know you enjoy the punning limelight, but there's no need to hogget all.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Animal_pb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    eek said:

    eek said:
    Gove also said after we voted to Leave we’d hold all the aces.

    Gove is usually wrong on Brexit or has he started using again?
    Note - he doesn't say where Jenny's statement is wrong. It might be that it's not 9m but 17.4m
    Yes. The right thing for Michael to do is not go on a rude trump type attack, but explain the inaccuracy by explaining what the no deal plan is for sheep.
    I think he was attempting a pun.

    But as he is not very bright he bombed baaadly.
    No need to ram it down our throats.
    For flocks sake
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Charles said:

    Zephyr said:

    eek said:

    eek said:
    Gove also said after we voted to Leave we’d hold all the aces.

    Gove is usually wrong on Brexit or has he started using again?
    Note - he doesn't say where Jenny's statement is wrong. It might be that it's not 9m but 17.4m
    Yes. The right thing for Michael to do is not go on a rude trump type attack, but explain the inaccuracy by explaining what the no deal plan is for sheep.
    There will be multiple plans depending on various scenarios
    Free lamb chops and moussaka for all BXP voters?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "What’s more powerful than Trump?
    It's the Senate, stupid. And the Democrats are giving up on it.
    Justin Webb"

    https://unherd.com/2019/07/whats-more-powerful-than-trump/
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Zephyr said:

    eek said:

    eek said:
    Gove also said after we voted to Leave we’d hold all the aces.

    Gove is usually wrong on Brexit or has he started using again?
    Note - he doesn't say where Jenny's statement is wrong. It might be that it's not 9m but 17.4m
    Yes. The right thing for Michael to do is not go on a rude trump type attack, but explain the inaccuracy by explaining what the no deal plan is for sheep.
    There will be multiple plans depending on various scenarios
    Free lamb chops and moussaka for all BXP voters?
    Moussaka sounds a bit furreign
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608

    There's no way that Con MPs will back a VoNC against their own government until it becomes the only option. I suspect that even Labour MPs (never mind the various independents) won't want to prompt a general election campaign during August.



    TBH, I think the only sure way of stopping No Deal now might be an early VONC followed immediately by ex-Tory MPs agreeing to facilitate Corbyn to become PM (possibly by abstaining in a VONC within the 14-day period). That would be on condition that Corbyn does nothing other than agree an extension with the EU, to be used for a GE.

    Put like that, though - can you really see enough current Tory MPs being willing to even attempt that? Maybe with a different LOTO, but Corbyn?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    ydoethur said:

    Dear Selectors for the Cheating Convicts

    Please, please, pretty please with almonds on pick Chad Sayers for the Ashes.

    Not only will it mean England win handsomely, but it means Glos can sign a halfway competent bowler.

    And may I implore them with similar passion NOT to pick Peter Siddle, or the England batsmen will suffer and Essex will miss out on another County Championship title.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Animal_pb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Animal_pb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    eek said:

    eek said:
    Gove also said after we voted to Leave we’d hold all the aces.

    Gove is usually wrong on Brexit or has he started using again?
    Note - he doesn't say where Jenny's statement is wrong. It might be that it's not 9m but 17.4m
    Yes. The right thing for Michael to do is not go on a rude trump type attack, but explain the inaccuracy by explaining what the no deal plan is for sheep.
    I think he was attempting a pun.

    But as he is not very bright he bombed baaadly.
    No need to ram it down our throats.
    Ewe asked. I remain the tup punner.
    I know you enjoy the punning limelight, but there's no need to hogget all.
    That's a pig to respond to. Sow I shan't attempt to.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited July 2019
    Animal_pb said:

    Put like that, though - can you really see enough current Tory MPs being willing to even attempt that? Maybe with a different LOTO, but Corbyn?

    Dunno. It (probably) wouldn't take very many, though.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    I personally doubt there are enough Tories will balls to VONC Boris.

    They won’t do it on July 24, because he’ll be new.

    They won’t do it on September 3, because he’ll claim to be trying to orchestrate a New Deal.

    Ditto the beginning of October.

    By October 31 it’ll be too late.

    Edit: it seems more likely to me that enough Tories will defect that the government loses its majority.

    If you VONC Boris you are finished in the Con party - if Hammond and Grieve have enough cushy advisor roles lined up in the city then they will go for it.

    But they will be pariahs for a large % of the population.

    heroes to a large % as well
    Yes - who can forget Anna Soubry being cheered to the rafters across the nation and her party reaping the rewards in the Euro elections.

  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Animal_pb said:

    There's no way that Con MPs will back a VoNC against their own government until it becomes the only option. I suspect that even Labour MPs (never mind the various independents) won't want to prompt a general election campaign during August.



    TBH, I think the only sure way of stopping No Deal now might be an early VONC followed immediately by ex-Tory MPs agreeing to facilitate Corbyn to become PM (possibly by abstaining in a VONC within the 14-day period). That would be on condition that Corbyn does nothing other than agree an extension with the EU, to be used for a GE.

    Put like that, though - can you really see enough current Tory MPs being willing to even attempt that? Maybe with a different LOTO, but Corbyn?
    Under current Parliament numbers Corbyn could VONCed at any point. So he would have little choice but to get the extension and then call an election as he doesn't have the numbers..
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    edited July 2019

    There's no way that Con MPs will back a VoNC against their own government until it becomes the only option. I suspect that even Labour MPs (never mind the various independents) won't want to prompt a general election campaign during August.

    I agree with both points, but look at the timing if they don't do it straightaway. We could end up with an election either straddling the crash-out date, or happening just a few days before. If the latter case leads to another hung parliament, who knows what would happen?

    For all these reasons, centrist MPs will be trying to find some other route. As we know, the mechanics of that are opaque to say to least, so it's very far from certain that they would succeed.

    TBH, I think the only sure way of stopping No Deal now might be an early VONC followed immediately by ex-Tory MPs agreeing to facilitate Corbyn to become PM (possibly by abstaining in a VONC within the 14-day period). That would be on condition that Corbyn does nothing other than agree an extension with the EU, to be used for a GE.

    All very speculative, of course. But we are in a curious position where all possible avenues are impossible, so who knows?
    How about May as head of a government of national unity?

    Edit to add: I reckon Corbyn might go for that for the shit and giggles
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Animal_pb said:

    Put like that, though - can you really see enough current Tory MPs being willing to even attempt that? Maybe with a different LOTO, but Corbyn?

    Dunno. It (probably) wouldn't take very many, though.
    Corbyn wants out of the EU, contrary to the wishes of a majority of his members, and I'm sure we would get "for the democratic good" as he does so via the absence of a deal. Hence the calculations for anti-no deal Cons MPs would be get rid of one no dealer, only for him to be replaced by another.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    Animal_pb said:

    Put like that, though - can you really see enough current Tory MPs being willing to even attempt that? Maybe with a different LOTO, but Corbyn?

    Dunno. It (probably) wouldn't take very many, though.
    I think it would there ARE a huge number (maybe as many as 30) in the PLP that will not allow Corbyn as PM. that why September Trigger Ballots are important.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    ydoethur said:

    Animal_pb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Animal_pb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    eek said:

    eek said:
    Gove also said after we voted to Leave we’d hold all the aces.

    Gove is usually wrong on Brexit or has he started using again?
    Note - he doesn't say where Jenny's statement is wrong. It might be that it's not 9m but 17.4m
    Yes. The right thing for Michael to do is not go on a rude trump type attack, but explain the inaccuracy by explaining what the no deal plan is for sheep.
    I think he was attempting a pun.

    But as he is not very bright he bombed baaadly.
    No need to ram it down our throats.
    Ewe asked. I remain the tup punner.
    I know you enjoy the punning limelight, but there's no need to hogget all.
    That's a pig to respond to. Sow I shan't attempt to.
    If you're going to branch out into other farmyard animals, I shall have to cry technical fowl.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    There's no way that Con MPs will back a VoNC against their own government until it becomes the only option. I suspect that even Labour MPs (never mind the various independents) won't want to prompt a general election campaign during August.

    TBH, I think the only sure way of stopping No Deal now might be an early VONC followed immediately by ex-Tory MPs agreeing to facilitate Corbyn to become PM (possibly by abstaining in a VONC within the 14-day period). That would be on condition that Corbyn does nothing other than agree an extension with the EU, to be used for a GE.
    A GE under those circumstances could likely end up in a Boris/BXP majority.

    With those ex-Tory's out of a job either way.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited July 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    How about May as head of a government of national unity?

    Edit to add: I reckon Corbyn might go for that for the shit and giggles

    That would be entertaining, but I can't see any circumstances in which Labour agrees to support anyone other than Corbyn. Given that the other opposition parties would almost certainly also do so, at least on the temporary basis I mentioned, it might be possible if a handful of soon-to-be-ex-Tory MPs decide that a no-deal crash-out is so completely unacceptable that they have no choice.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    TOPPING said:

    Animal_pb said:

    Put like that, though - can you really see enough current Tory MPs being willing to even attempt that? Maybe with a different LOTO, but Corbyn?

    Dunno. It (probably) wouldn't take very many, though.
    Corbyn wants out of the EU, contrary to the wishes of a majority of his members, and I'm sure we would get "for the democratic good" as he does so via the absence of a deal. Hence the calculations for anti-no deal Cons MPs would be get rid of one no dealer, only for him to be replaced by another.
    Yes, that's certainly a risk. But they'd only be asking him to ask for a 3-month extension, not to declare eternal love for the EU.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    The Guardian and Steve Bell are heading for the rocks, it seems. Paradoxically it's over the Guardian banning his new cartoon strip. It shows Tom Watson as the 'antisemite-finder general'. Too close to the bone for the Guardian, which has been cheerleading the same witch-hunt
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited July 2019
    TGOHF said:

    There's no way that Con MPs will back a VoNC against their own government until it becomes the only option. I suspect that even Labour MPs (never mind the various independents) won't want to prompt a general election campaign during August.

    TBH, I think the only sure way of stopping No Deal now might be an early VONC followed immediately by ex-Tory MPs agreeing to facilitate Corbyn to become PM (possibly by abstaining in a VONC within the 14-day period). That would be on condition that Corbyn does nothing other than agree an extension with the EU, to be used for a GE.
    A GE under those circumstances could likely end up in a Boris/BXP majority.

    With those ex-Tory's out of a job either way.
    People like Phil Hammond are hardly likely to care whether they are out of a job.

    As for a Boris/BXP majority, I doubt it very much. The LibDems would take too many seats for that to be a likely outcome. But, if the no-deal loons do get a majority, well, that's democracy for you.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Lords pass Amendment to make suspending Parliament much more difficult for the new PM .

    Because the Lords have added not just this but other new amendments to the original HOC Bill this means they can have further amendments added to them when they return to the Commons tomorrow .
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    TGOHF said:

    There's no way that Con MPs will back a VoNC against their own government until it becomes the only option. I suspect that even Labour MPs (never mind the various independents) won't want to prompt a general election campaign during August.

    TBH, I think the only sure way of stopping No Deal now might be an early VONC followed immediately by ex-Tory MPs agreeing to facilitate Corbyn to become PM (possibly by abstaining in a VONC within the 14-day period). That would be on condition that Corbyn does nothing other than agree an extension with the EU, to be used for a GE.
    A GE under those circumstances could likely end up in a Boris/BXP majority.

    With those ex-Tory's out of a job either way.
    I think that's probably the most likely outcome, but it's hardly the only one.

    For a start, if there's no Brexit/Con pact, then the Leave vote could end up being split in a bunch of places. That means that in Leave-y places like Cornwall and Devon, you end up letting the LibDems in.

    On the other hand, if there is a Brexit/Con pact, then (a) you have to give BXP something, like a free run at a bunch of winnable seats, and (b) you end up potentially poisoning the Conservative brand in places like Richmond Park. Now, will that matter if BXP wins Labour Leave seats? Nope. But if they don't, the Conservatives will have thrown away one bunch of seats without getting another.

    It's entirely possible that you end up with a hideously hung parliament, with five parties (adding in the SNP) getting more than fifty seats, and no two parties managing to get to 325. That would be utter chaos.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    The Guardian and Steve Bell are heading for the rocks, it seems. Paradoxically it's over the Guardian banning his new cartoon strip. It shows Tom Watson as the 'antisemite-finder general'. Too close to the bone for the Guardian, which has been cheerleading the same witch-hunt

    A better reason for banning him would be his years of being completely unfunny.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF said:

    There's no way that Con MPs will back a VoNC against their own government until it becomes the only option. I suspect that even Labour MPs (never mind the various independents) won't want to prompt a general election campaign during August.

    TBH, I think the only sure way of stopping No Deal now might be an early VONC followed immediately by ex-Tory MPs agreeing to facilitate Corbyn to become PM (possibly by abstaining in a VONC within the 14-day period). That would be on condition that Corbyn does nothing other than agree an extension with the EU, to be used for a GE.
    A GE under those circumstances could likely end up in a Boris/BXP majority.

    With those ex-Tory's out of a job either way.
    I think that's probably the most likely outcome, but it's hardly the only one.

    For a start, if there's no Brexit/Con pact, then the Leave vote could end up being split in a bunch of places. That means that in Leave-y places like Cornwall and Devon, you end up letting the LibDems in.

    On the other hand, if there is a Brexit/Con pact, then (a) you have to give BXP something, like a free run at a bunch of winnable seats, and (b) you end up potentially poisoning the Conservative brand in places like Richmond Park. Now, will that matter if BXP wins Labour Leave seats? Nope. But if they don't, the Conservatives will have thrown away one bunch of seats without getting another.

    It's entirely possible that you end up with a hideously hung parliament, with five parties (adding in the SNP) getting more than fifty seats, and no two parties managing to get to 325. That would be utter chaos.
    There won't be a Con/BXP pact. No Cons leader would stoop so low.

    *checks who is hot favourite for next Cons leader*

    oh...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    rcs1000 said:

    Biden's odds are nuts for someone who is still well clear in the national polls, who hasn't fallen below the high-20s all year, who still leads (if not by as much) in some early contests, bar local factors, and where proportional allocation will benefit across-the-board support.

    This isn't just name-recognition now: we're well into the formal campaigning and have already had the first debate.

    Sure, there's a reasonable possibility that he doesn't win the nomination but that's even more true of every other candidate.

    I know you think so, but let me explain why I think you're wrong.

    Cast your mind back to 2008. Rudy Guiliani was running for US President. He was America's most popular Mayor. He led the Republican polls for a fair amount of time. And he had a strategy to skip Iowa and New Hampshire and build a "Florida Firewall". (I think I remember someone else with a Florida Firewall.)

    Primaries end up self reinforcing much of the time. If you win Iowa, you get a boost. If you win New Hampshire, ditto. And the corrollory is that if you lose both these states, then you drop back. The big mo goes against you. (Also see: Howard Dean.)

    That's why a laser like focus on Iowa and New Hampshire is still necessary. Those primaries define who matter in the subsequent few states.

    Now, I happen to think that either Biden or Harris will walk South Carolina. But for Biden to be the winner, he has to be the contender after Iowa and NH. If he trails in both to Harris, then she will likely benefit in South Carolina. (Guiliani, despite millions spent in Florida, never recovered from poor results in Iowa and NH.)

    Right now, Biden has been hemorrhaging votes in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. The more voters in these states see of him, the less they like him. Indeed, there's a 538 study which shows that support for Biden is inversely correlated with how much of the campaign people have seen. Given that the cohort of people - in either Iowa or New Hampshire - who have paid little attention to the race is shrinking, this is terrible news for Biden.

    My final point is that, of all the candidates, it's Biden who seems be enjoying himself the least. He doesn't seem to like stumping around Iowa and New Hampshire. He seems happier in ballrooms with big donors. An unhappy candidate is one who is more likely to leave the race.
    I've just checked Giuliano's NH and Iowa polling at this point, was much much worse than Bidens numbers.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608

    TOPPING said:

    Animal_pb said:

    Put like that, though - can you really see enough current Tory MPs being willing to even attempt that? Maybe with a different LOTO, but Corbyn?

    Dunno. It (probably) wouldn't take very many, though.
    Corbyn wants out of the EU, contrary to the wishes of a majority of his members, and I'm sure we would get "for the democratic good" as he does so via the absence of a deal. Hence the calculations for anti-no deal Cons MPs would be get rid of one no dealer, only for him to be replaced by another.
    Yes, that's certainly a risk. But they'd only be asking him to ask for a 3-month extension, not to declare eternal love for the EU.
    Isn't it more likely, though, that after the initial VoNC, Corbyn/someone else stitches the conspirators up, and they wind up failing to assemble a working majority within the 14 days, leading to another GE? You'd have to make that a pretty likely outcome, which has got to stay a few hands, surely.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    More fun than just resigning if you want out.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    The Guardian and Steve Bell are heading for the rocks, it seems. Paradoxically it's over the Guardian banning his new cartoon strip. It shows Tom Watson as the 'antisemite-finder general'. Too close to the bone for the Guardian, which has been cheerleading the same witch-hunt

    Watto is public enemy #1 for Corbynites right now I think
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited July 2019
    Animal_pb said:

    Isn't it more likely, though, that after the initial VoNC, Corbyn/someone else stitches the conspirators up, and they wind up failing to assemble a working majority within the 14 days, leading to another GE? You'd have to make that a pretty likely outcome, which has got to stay a few hands, surely.

    Certainly a possible outcome, but have they lost much in that scenario? In addition, why would Corbyn stitch them up? He'd relish the possibility of going into a GE with the aura of already being PM in a scenario where he'd prevented a disastrous no-deal Tory crash out.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    I'm surprised it wasn't Ken Livingstone who said it.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    TGOHF said:
    Of course that’s much worse than many of the Bozo gaffs ! The right wing press are desperate to trash Hammond seeing as he’s going to be a pain in the neck for the new PM.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    rcs1000 said:


    How about May as head of a government of national unity?

    It needs to be a partnership of equals between two titans, of both of the parties. I called for it a while back: the joint Williamson/Grayling premiership.

    Let's face it, couldn't be more ridiculous than Johnson or Corbyn.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Biden's odds are nuts for someone who is still well clear in the national polls, who hasn't fallen below the high-20s all year, who still leads (if not by as much) in some early contests, bar local factors, and where proportional allocation will benefit across-the-board support.

    This isn't just name-recognition now: we're well into the formal campaigning and have already had the first debate.

    Sure, there's a reasonable possibility that he doesn't win the nomination but that's even more true of every other candidate.

    I know you think so, but let me explain why I think you're wrong.

    Cast your mind back to 2008. Rudy Guiliani was running for US President. He was America's most popular Mayor. He led the Republican polls for a fair amount of time. And he had a strategy to skip Iowa and New Hampshire and build a "Florida Firewall". (I think I remember someone else with a Florida Firewall.)

    Primaries end up self reinforcing much of the time. If you win Iowa, you get a boost. If you win New Hampshire, ditto. And the corrollory is that if you lose both these states, then you drop back. The big mo goes against you. (Also see: Howard Dean.)

    That's why a laser like focus on Iowa and New Hampshire is still necessary. Those primaries define who matter in the subsequent few states.

    Now, I happen to think that either Biden or Harris will walk South Carolina. But for Biden to be the winner, he has to be the contender after Iowa and NH. If he trails in both to Harris, then she will likely benefit in South Carolina. (Guiliani, despite millions spent in Florida, never recovered from poor results in Iowa and NH.)

    Right now, Biden has been hemorrhaging votes in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. The more voters in these states see of him, the less they like him. Indeed, there's a 538 study which shows that support for Biden is inversely correlated with how much of the campaign people have seen. Given that the cohort of people - in either Iowa or New Hampshire - who have paid little attention to the race is shrinking, this is terrible news for Biden.

    My final point is that, of all the candidates, it's Biden who seems be enjoying himself the least. He doesn't seem to like stumping around Iowa and New Hampshire. He seems happier in ballrooms with big donors. An unhappy candidate is one who is more likely to leave the race.
    I've just checked Giuliano's NH and Iowa polling at this point, was much much worse than Bidens numbers.
    Well yes. Guiliana very deliberately didn't campaign there. My point is that if Biden doesn't win Iowa or New Hampshire, then his current national polling is unlikely to offer much support.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608

    Animal_pb said:

    Isn't it more likely, though, that after the initial VoNC, Corbyn/someone else stitches the conspirators up, and they wind up failing to assemble a working majority within the 14 days, leading to another GE? You'd have to make that a pretty likely outcome, which has got to stay a few hands, surely.

    Certainly a possible outcome, but have they lost much in that scenario? In addition, why would Corbyn stitch them up? He'd relish the possibility of going into a GE with the aura of already being PM in a scenario where he'd prevented a disastrous no-deal Tory crash out.
    Yes, but he might also relish leading a GE campaign against a Tory party in disarray just after a disastrous no-deal crash out. He still wants out of the EU, and this way he gets to blame the Tories.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    TGOHF said:
    LOL, As you well know Harry there are no good Tories, apart from Ken Clarke, they are all zeroes
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TGOHF said:
    Surely there are more important things in life than a silly comment like this?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Animal_pb said:

    Animal_pb said:

    Isn't it more likely, though, that after the initial VoNC, Corbyn/someone else stitches the conspirators up, and they wind up failing to assemble a working majority within the 14 days, leading to another GE? You'd have to make that a pretty likely outcome, which has got to stay a few hands, surely.

    Certainly a possible outcome, but have they lost much in that scenario? In addition, why would Corbyn stitch them up? He'd relish the possibility of going into a GE with the aura of already being PM in a scenario where he'd prevented a disastrous no-deal Tory crash out.
    Yes, but he might also relish leading a GE campaign against a Tory party in disarray just after a disastrous no-deal crash out. He still wants out of the EU, and this way he gets to blame the Tories.
    The Tories will be in disarray anyway - especially if Boris has failed to deliver on his brain-dead October 31st commitment, which would be the case in the scenario I outlined.

    To be clear, I'm not saying this is the most likely scenario, just the most feasible way of ensuring we don't crash out on October 31st. I think more likely scenarios are either that we do, or that we don't because Boris realises belatedly just how disastrous a crash-out would be.

    The Tory party is of course kiboshed in any of these scenarios, or any others one can imagine.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    Animal_pb said:

    Animal_pb said:

    Isn't it more likely, though, that after the initial VoNC, Corbyn/someone else stitches the conspirators up, and they wind up failing to assemble a working majority within the 14 days, leading to another GE? You'd have to make that a pretty likely outcome, which has got to stay a few hands, surely.

    Certainly a possible outcome, but have they lost much in that scenario? In addition, why would Corbyn stitch them up? He'd relish the possibility of going into a GE with the aura of already being PM in a scenario where he'd prevented a disastrous no-deal Tory crash out.
    Yes, but he might also relish leading a GE campaign against a Tory party in disarray just after a disastrous no-deal crash out. He still wants out of the EU, and this way he gets to blame the Tories.
    It's like 4D chess :smile:

    The risk for Corbyn is that he's seen as an accessory to Tory No Deal Brexit, and loses his metropolitan Remain supporters to the LibDems.

    On the other hand. If he is seen to have enabled an extension, what does that mean for Labour Leavers? Or, as @justin124 suggests, are they not so bothered by Brexit as the Conservatives?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Animal_pb said:


    Yes, but he might also relish leading a GE campaign against a Tory party in disarray just after a disastrous no-deal crash out. He still wants out of the EU, and this way he gets to blame the Tories.

    For me, that was always the plan. Block any and all progress, leading to no-deal, economy crashes, govt automatically gets the blame, GE soon follows.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1151479032711712768
    https://twitter.com/BorderIrish/status/1151517541560401920

    Fantastic news! It takes two to tango. A backstopless deal would be ideal but if they don't want there will be consequences and I can live with that.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    rcs1000 said:

    Animal_pb said:

    Animal_pb said:

    Isn't it more likely, though, that after the initial VoNC, Corbyn/someone else stitches the conspirators up, and they wind up failing to assemble a working majority within the 14 days, leading to another GE? You'd have to make that a pretty likely outcome, which has got to stay a few hands, surely.

    Certainly a possible outcome, but have they lost much in that scenario? In addition, why would Corbyn stitch them up? He'd relish the possibility of going into a GE with the aura of already being PM in a scenario where he'd prevented a disastrous no-deal Tory crash out.
    Yes, but he might also relish leading a GE campaign against a Tory party in disarray just after a disastrous no-deal crash out. He still wants out of the EU, and this way he gets to blame the Tories.
    It's like 4D chess :smile:

    The risk for Corbyn is that he's seen as an accessory to Tory No Deal Brexit, and loses his metropolitan Remain supporters to the LibDems.

    On the other hand. If he is seen to have enabled an extension, what does that mean for Labour Leavers? Or, as @justin124 suggests, are they not so bothered by Brexit as the Conservatives?
    An extension is only a prelude to revocation. There is no point to an extension without further negotiations - and they aren't on the table. So enabling an extension is just enabling the eventual revocation of our A50 request.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    GIN1138 said:

    Afternoon PB,

    This time next week Boris De Pfeffel Johnson will be on hos way to Buckingham Palace to kiss hands with Her Majesty The Queen as her 14th Prime Minister.

    Just think about that for a second!

    Don't have nightmares. :D

    Too late.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    TGOHF said:
    Oh for goodness sake we have to be able to distinguish between a pun based upon a sterotype and actual discrimination. I doubt Hammond actually believe 'girls are less able to fly a plane. Puns about homosexuals organising the cushions, white men not being able to dance, mother-in-laws, women parking, Irish/Polish people doing illogical things, etc, etc are ok. It is alright to tell jokes about these things. My wife and I will often quip about each others inadequacies along these lines. Neither of us believes it in real life.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1151479032711712768
    https://twitter.com/BorderIrish/status/1151517541560401920

    Fantastic news! It takes two to tango. A backstopless deal would be ideal but if they don't want there will be consequences and I can live with that.

    So you’re applauding a likely return of problems at the border when the infrastructure goes up!

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Andrew said:

    Animal_pb said:


    Yes, but he might also relish leading a GE campaign against a Tory party in disarray just after a disastrous no-deal crash out. He still wants out of the EU, and this way he gets to blame the Tories.

    For me, that was always the plan. Block any and all progress, leading to no-deal, economy crashes, govt automatically gets the blame, GE soon follows.
    In Seamus's eyes, if there is enough chaos, then the good folk of Britain will be begging for a socialist government.

    I believe it is tactic inherited from Lenin.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    Animal_pb said:

    Animal_pb said:

    Isn't it more likely, though, that after the initial VoNC, Corbyn/someone else stitches the conspirators up, and they wind up failing to assemble a working majority within the 14 days, leading to another GE? You'd have to make that a pretty likely outcome, which has got to stay a few hands, surely.

    Certainly a possible outcome, but have they lost much in that scenario? In addition, why would Corbyn stitch them up? He'd relish the possibility of going into a GE with the aura of already being PM in a scenario where he'd prevented a disastrous no-deal Tory crash out.
    Yes, but he might also relish leading a GE campaign against a Tory party in disarray just after a disastrous no-deal crash out. He still wants out of the EU, and this way he gets to blame the Tories.
    The Tories will be in disarray anyway - especially if Boris has failed to deliver on his brain-dead October 31st commitment, which would be the case in the scenario I outlined.

    To be clear, I'm not saying this is the most likely scenario, just the most feasible way of ensuring we don't crash out on October 31st. I think more likely scenarios are either that we do, or that we don't because Boris realises belatedly just how disastrous a crash-out would be.

    The Tory party is of course kiboshed in any of these scenarios, or any others one can imagine.
    Boris Johnson seems to be pretty committed now to No Deal Brexit. Simply, I can't see how he negotiates any meaningful changes to the WA before October 31st. And he is opposed to even time limiting the backstop.

    The only way around this, I can see, is to extend the period for the Withdrawal Agreement to (say) five years. Which the EU will like because it means more money. But which many Leavers will hate as it effectively leaves us in the EEA throught the next General Election.

    So, let's assume No Deal. He then has to remain in power through a likely recession. (And by the way, I'm assuming that most of the recession is simply a consequence of the current global economic slowdown, plus a bit of a hit from firms deferring UK investments.)

    It doesn't look that good for Mr Johnson. But, I could always be completely wrong.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    rcs1000 said:

    How about May as head of a government of national unity?

    Edit to add: I reckon Corbyn might go for that for the shit and giggles

    That would be entertaining, but I can't see any circumstances in which Labour agrees to support anyone other than Corbyn. Given that the other opposition parties would almost certainly also do so, at least on the temporary basis I mentioned, it might be possible if a handful of soon-to-be-ex-Tory MPs decide that a no-deal crash-out is so completely unacceptable that they have no choice.
    Anyone who thinks Corbyn in Downing Street is better than any variety of Brexit is insane.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    rcs1000 said:

    Animal_pb said:

    Animal_pb said:

    Isn't it more likely, though, that after the initial VoNC, Corbyn/someone else stitches the conspirators up, and they wind up failing to assemble a working majority within the 14 days, leading to another GE? You'd have to make that a pretty likely outcome, which has got to stay a few hands, surely.

    Certainly a possible outcome, but have they lost much in that scenario? In addition, why would Corbyn stitch them up? He'd relish the possibility of going into a GE with the aura of already being PM in a scenario where he'd prevented a disastrous no-deal Tory crash out.
    Yes, but he might also relish leading a GE campaign against a Tory party in disarray just after a disastrous no-deal crash out. He still wants out of the EU, and this way he gets to blame the Tories.
    It's like 4D chess :smile:

    The risk for Corbyn is that he's seen as an accessory to Tory No Deal Brexit, and loses his metropolitan Remain supporters to the LibDems.

    On the other hand. If he is seen to have enabled an extension, what does that mean for Labour Leavers? Or, as @justin124 suggests, are they not so bothered by Brexit as the Conservatives?
    Yep. The law of unintended consequences will be in over-drive. And everyone will be painfully aware of that.

    Bottom line, it feels like it would take MPs with balls as big as Halloween pumpkins to go for this. I haven't noticed many of them.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    rcs1000 said:

    How about May as head of a government of national unity?

    Edit to add: I reckon Corbyn might go for that for the shit and giggles

    That would be entertaining, but I can't see any circumstances in which Labour agrees to support anyone other than Corbyn. Given that the other opposition parties would almost certainly also do so, at least on the temporary basis I mentioned, it might be possible if a handful of soon-to-be-ex-Tory MPs decide that a no-deal crash-out is so completely unacceptable that they have no choice.
    Anyone who thinks Corbyn in Downing Street is better than any variety of Brexit is insane.
    I think the most likely outcome of No Deal is a Corbyn government.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789


    Fantastic news! It takes two to tango. A backstopless deal would be ideal but if they don't want there will be consequences and I can live with that.

    “*I* can live with that”?

    You want to impose consequences on other people.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    rcs1000 said:

    How about May as head of a government of national unity?

    Edit to add: I reckon Corbyn might go for that for the shit and giggles

    That would be entertaining, but I can't see any circumstances in which Labour agrees to support anyone other than Corbyn. Given that the other opposition parties would almost certainly also do so, at least on the temporary basis I mentioned, it might be possible if a handful of soon-to-be-ex-Tory MPs decide that a no-deal crash-out is so completely unacceptable that they have no choice.
    Anyone who thinks Corbyn in Downing Street is better than any variety of Brexit is insane.
    Any variety of Brexit other than crashing out in chaos, yes. And crashing out in chaos gives us Corbyn in No 10 anyway.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    The Guardian and Steve Bell are heading for the rocks, it seems. Paradoxically it's over the Guardian banning his new cartoon strip. It shows Tom Watson as the 'antisemite-finder general'. Too close to the bone for the Guardian, which has been cheerleading the same witch-hunt

    Not quite as bizarre as publishing a letter from Noam Chomsky, Norman Finkelstein, Jewish Voice for Labour and some others supporting Chris Williamson then removing it when the Board of Deputies complained about labelling those people as prominent members of the Jewish community.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nico67 said:

    https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1151479032711712768
    https://twitter.com/BorderIrish/status/1151517541560401920

    Fantastic news! It takes two to tango. A backstopless deal would be ideal but if they don't want there will be consequences and I can live with that.

    So you’re applauding a likely return of problems at the border when the infrastructure goes up!

    No I'm applauding playing hardball, which is no different whatsoever to what Varadkar has been doing.

    The second they're willing to compromise and treat us as equals rather than supplicants then I'd be happy to have an equitable deal.
This discussion has been closed.