Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The harsh facts that the leadership contenders need to face
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The harsh facts that the leadership contenders need to face
Lawyers are rarely regarded with affection. Lawyers-turned-politicians even less so. Nonetheless David Gauke’s speech at this week’s Lord Mayor’s banquet is worth a careful read, not least for its defence of the rule of law as a critical element underpinning democracy (a word never off the lips of some politicians wholly ignorant that something more than shouting “The people have voted” repeatedly is needed to sustain a democracy). Gauke’s quiet praise for the unfashionable virtues of public service, intellectual rigour, a serious determination to grapple with complex problems, the wish to reach “a decision based on what is right and not necessarily what is superficially popular”, for the value of experience and evidence was doubtless welcomed by his audience. But its applicability is wider, as he recognised. He cannot be the only person who wishes that politicians would deal “with the world as we find it, not as we imagine or represent it to be.”
Comments
It is Farage who is No Deal
Ken Clarke shows how lawyer-politicians are loved.
I see that £350m/week is accurate. Who'd have thought it going by the comments on here.
Actually about 55% of the UK's exports are goods:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/april2019#total-trade-deficit-widened-in-the-three-months-to-april-2019
Or to put it another way 10% of the UK economy produced over half its exports.
Those who claim to be swayed by Facts over Belief do so because they hold a Belief in Facts. So why is there a crisis of faith in Facts?
The decision appears to contradict previous warnings by JLR that investment in the UK would be threatened by Brexit, and in particular a no-deal scenario.
If diehard Remainers refused to accept the result and pass the Withdrawal Agreement then they must accept that Leavers will still deliver it even if No Deal with the ultimate aim remaining a Canada style FTA allowing control of borders and regained sovereignty exactly as most Leavers voted for.
Despite the pessimistic tone of the article remember too Liam Fox has already negotiated the basis for FTAs with Switzerland, South Korea and Australia ie significant economies and more besides.
Canada is currently led by Trudeau who opposed Brexit and while not ruling out a FTA with the UK is in no rush to implement it, however his Liberal Party is currently neck and neck with the Conservative Party of Canada led by the pro Brexit Andrew Scheer in Canadian polls and Scheer has already promised the UK a FTA with all the trimmings if he wins the Canadian general election in the autumn (as former Conservative PM Harper has promised to help the UK negotiate a trade agreement with the EU similar to that Canada has)
Why should Britain be desperate for FTAs ?
A country which has had 22 consecutive years of trade deficits might not be following the most appropriate trade policy.
Especially when those trade deficits are based upon trade deficits from its biggest FTA.
Perhaps before Britain thinks about how to get more FTAs it needs to think first whether FTAs are good for Britain.
A few more NTBs against other countries might be advantageous.
Numbers especially numbers preceded by a £.
And those £ are what trade is all about.
Now when was the last time you heard a politician or a media 'expert' discussing trade in terms of £ ?
There is an almost touching naivete to Brexiteers when it comes to the motives of English-speaking white foreigners.
Not a diehard Remainer who refuses to respect democracy and is determined to Stop Brexit
Given that we need to consider what trade strategy works best for a country which continually over-consumes.
Either that or accept we will steadily flog off our assets to foreign ownership and/or have a steadily depreciating currency.
On the subject of :
"“a decision based on what is right and not necessarily what is superficially popular”"
Let me put the counterpoint that sometimes doing what is superficially popular may well be right. In the USA, the Trump administration's willingness to throw the weight of the considerable US economy around is (bullying basically) paying dividends in terms of trade for them. It's also very popular with his base.
Of course it might not always be the best thing to do, and Trump occasionally overreaches (A trade war with China isn't good for the world economy), but it's been a net positive for the US I feel.
A massive ad campaign in support of the EU. An initial £100 million spend. Aim it primarily at the young. Make being out of the EU look as old fashioned as not supporting gay marriage or climate change or paralympic sports. 'Proudly British Proudly European' would not be a good start.
Just Do It!
Almost 1 million UK citizens live in other EU countries. A No-Deal Brexit means that the residency and travel* rights will be uncertain for a huge number of UK citizens as well as for millions of EU citizens in the UK.
*Before someone says that travel accross borders will not not be affected, this is probably true for tourists. But if you are not a tourist, you need to prove a right to live in the country where your home address is. This is a right for EU citizens, but will overnight cease to be a right for UK citizens in the case of No-Deal Brexit. If you try and claim you are visiting as a tourist, to get back in to the country where you live, and you are found out, then you will have problems later applying to renew residency or applying for citizenship.
Or are you siding with a high tarrif policy to punish British consumers, and reverse years of reducing trade barriers?
Most pertinent for me is the "special status" section. How very true - Little Englanders writ large.
That's not to say that I necessarily approve of a free for all, but some remainers have set the bar incredibly low for what constitutes success post-No Deal.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1147019818241015808
Wonder what that idiot thinks now.
On that we agree. But I object to this "a few more NTBs against other countries might be advantageous". That is self-harming mercantalism.
https://www.wk.com/work/nike-dream-further
I hope SI put a spread market up on BoJo vote share. I would buy it anywhere in the 60s.
My prediction - 72/28.
https://twitter.com/MargotLJParker/status/1147057010367696896
Hath not a Remainer eyes? Hath not a Remainer hands,
organs, dimensions, senses, affections, passions; fed with the same
food, hurt with the same weapons, subject to the same diseases,
heal'd by the same means, warm'd and cool'd by the same winter
and summer, as a Leaver is? If you prick us, do we not bleed? If
you tickle us, do we not laugh? If you poison us, do we not die?
And if you wrong us, do we not revenge?
We need to consider what is harming the UK the most.
And, as an example, would you support a FTA with the USA and accept its food standards ?
It seems to me that if you'd don't support FTA with everyone then the discussion is where we should start erecting the barriers and how high they should be.
Impossible to read this and not conclude (as I have long concluded) that we will (eventually) do one of two things -
Either ratify the Withdrawal Agreement or cancel Brexit.
Right now, I have it as a 75/25 chance respectively.
I don't think we can cancel.
Secondly every single appointment requires either U.K. PM or elected MEPs involvement by peddling these lies you continue to try and perpetuate the myth of the ‘undemocratic’ EU. You’d be better challenging Farage to get off his arse and do some work to earn his salary.
I think in Germany the cabinet ministers do have to be approved by the Bundestag.
We will only ratify the WA if the ERG and DUP accept it. And the ERG will have to eat a veritable banquet of their own words to do that. The DUP will never accept the backstop. And the BXP will continue to cry betrayal if anything short of no deal is pushed through. And will Labour MPs back a Boris deal when they did not back the same deal under May? Hard to see that happening - Labour's contempt for Boris is more visceral than their dislike of May. I just do not see how a HoC majority can be built for a deal.
Also Brexiters: We will spend significantly more than £26bn from our war chest if we no deal Brexit.
By the same logic the UK PM is involved in appointing new members to the House of Lords. So is the House of Lords democratic in your eyes? Are people who complain about the 'undemocratic' Lords "peddling lies" in your eyes?
Leave, on the other hand, lied. They made contradictory promises that have proved impossible to reconcile, and hence we've ended up in the current position.
Hardcore leavers - and especially the Brexiteers - need to start taking some responsibility for this mess.
The exchange rate has been too high.
"would you support a FTA with the USA and accept its food standards ?"
That is a matter of negotiation. I am not against chlorine-washing. Like many people I consume chlorine-washed pre-packed salads. The food standards thing is an NTB hidden behind the guise of phyto-sanitary standards. But I would be pleased if we and they improved those standards to an acceptable level.
"It seems to me that if you'd don't support FTA with everyone then the discussion is where we should start erecting the barriers and how high they should be."
There is a simple and obvious alternative, namely to remove all our own tariffs. That benefits UK consumers. Those producers who need to be behind tariff/NTB will obviously need to adapt.