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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Boris Johnson tries to deliver on his promise of a No Deal Brexit on Halloween then a Vote of No Confidence seems inevitable

‘Never trust anybody who spells gonorrhoea correctly on the first attempt’ is a maxim that has served me well in life, I might revise that maxim to ‘Never trust anybody who says a no deal Brexit will be fine.’ I suspect many MPs are also guided by the latter maxim.

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SandyRentool

First, like the minute in which the Lionesses scored.

Nigelb

A reasonable bet, but not compelling.

Nigelb

Will Bottas let Hamilton through ?

Nigelb

If Ferrari hadn’t screwed the pit stop, that period behind Bottas would have screwed Hamilton.
All change now.

Tactically inept, and operationally incompetent.

HYUFD

Fine, it is clear the current Zombie Commons cannot deliver anything having voted against the Withdrawal Agreement, voted against No Deal and voted against staying in the Single Market and Customs Union and voted against Revoke and voted against EUref2.

If the Commons backs a VONC fine in PM Boris fine, let us then have a general election and let the voters decide, give Boris a Tory majority and he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal but aim for a FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by confirmatory referendum if need be, not the DUP.

If not then we get a Labour, LD and SNP Government most likely and either EUref2 or revoke or Single Market and Customs Union BINO but at least we would actually get somewhere rather than the current limbo

AndyJS

FPT:

India need their 5th highest run chase in ODIs to win the match, and second highest against England.

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/content/records/93518.html

DecrepitJohnL

Nigelb said:

A reasonable bet, but not compelling.

It is compelling in the sense you'd probably collect but not so if you have to wait till after the conference season. There are plenty of 1/3 shots before then. And the party got rattled so is trying to string out the leadership election almost till the recess in order to minimise the chance of Labour VONC-ing Boris. The recess will give him eight or so weeks to shore up support during the holidays.

Nigelb

DecrepitJohnL said:

Nigelb said:

A reasonable bet, but not compelling.

It is compelling in the sense you'd probably collect but not so if you have to wait till after the conference season. There are plenty of 1/3 shots before then. And the party got rattled so is trying to string out the leadership election almost till the recess in order to minimise the chance of Labour VONC-ing Boris. The recess will give him eight or so weeks to shore up support during the holidays.

And it’s quite possible it wouldn’t pay out.
The odds are probably about right, which is why it’s not compelling.

NickPalmer

HYUFD said:

Fine, it is clear the current Zombie Commons cannot deliver anything having voted against the Withdrawal Agreement, voted against No Deal and voted against staying in the Single Market and Customs Union and voted against Revoke and voted against EUref2.

If the Commons backs a VONC fine in PM Boris fine, let us then have a general election and let the voters decide, give Boris a Tory majority and he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal but aim for a FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by confirmatory referendum if need be, not the DUP.

If not then we get a Labour, LD and SNP Government most likely and either EUref2 or revoke or Single Market and Customs Union BINO but at least we would actually get somewhere rather than the current limbo

Agreed!

OldKingCole

Probably been commented on in the earlier threads ...... been watching g the cricket and sorting out other bits.... but I've just seen Jeremy Hunts statement that if a No Deal departure from the EU means he would have to tell businesses that it would be disastrous for them, he would do so.

Reminds me of a caricature of a WWI General

Nigelb

11 sec stop for Hamilton, with the new wing being fitted.

Might have won the GP had he stayed off the kerbs. Long afternoon for him now.

DecrepitJohnL

Nigelb said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Nigelb said:

A reasonable bet, but not compelling.

It is compelling in the sense you'd probably collect but not so if you have to wait till after the conference season. There are plenty of 1/3 shots before then. And the party got rattled so is trying to string out the leadership election almost till the recess in order to minimise the chance of Labour VONC-ing Boris. The recess will give him eight or so weeks to shore up support during the holidays.

And it’s quite possible it wouldn’t pay out.
The odds are probably about right, which is why it’s not compelling.

Well, it is hard to see why Labour would not call a VONC, and the bet does not depend on whether it is won or lost.

The danger, on reflection, is that Boris takes HYUFD's advice and calls a snap election. Canning occupied Number 10 for 100-odd days. Boris could break that record if he is not careful.

Sandpit

DecrepitJohnL said:

Nigelb said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Nigelb said:

A reasonable bet, but not compelling.

It is compelling in the sense you'd probably collect but not so if you have to wait till after the conference season. There are plenty of 1/3 shots before then. And the party got rattled so is trying to string out the leadership election almost till the recess in order to minimise the chance of Labour VONC-ing Boris. The recess will give him eight or so weeks to shore up support during the holidays.

And it’s quite possible it wouldn’t pay out.
The odds are probably about right, which is why it’s not compelling.

Well, it is hard to see why Labour would not call a VONC, and the bet does not depend on whether it is won or lost.

The danger, on reflection, is that Boris takes HYUFD's advice and calls a snap election. Canning occupied Number 10 for 100-odd days. Boris could break that record if he is not careful.

The snap election (September) is priced at 12 on Betfair, as a good hedge.

AlastairMeeks

Surely this is about a 1/10 shot? Isn’t this going to be Labour’s first move on the installation of a new Prime Minister?

Nigelb

OldKingCole said:

Probably been commented on in the earlier threads ...... been watching g the cricket and sorting out other bits.... but I've just seen Jeremy Hunts statement that if a No Deal departure from the EU means he would have to tell businesses that it would be disastrous for them, he would do so.

Reminds me of a caricature of a WWI General

Or Vietnam - ‘we had to destroy the village to save it’, writ large.

AlastairMeeks

All those hypothetical trade deals the UK might eventually strike are highly hypothetical. Meanwhile, hard on the heels of Mercosur:

https://twitter.com/eu_commission/status/1145248175151878145?s=21

Mysticrose

‘Never trust anybody who spells gonorrhoea correctly on the first attempt’ is a maxim that has served me well in life, I might revise that maxim to ‘Never trust anybody who says a no deal Brexit will be fine.’



I like the 3/10 odds on a VONC

However, rather than proroguing parliament is there anything to stop Johnson simply delaying the summer recess until 01st Nov? Is it in statute that MPs will return?

Mysticrose

AndyJS said:

FPT:

India need their 5th highest run chase in ODIs to win the match, and second highest against England.

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/content/records/93518.html

And the highest ever World Cup run chase

Nigelb

DecrepitJohnL said:

Nigelb said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Nigelb said:

A reasonable bet, but not compelling.

It is compelling in the sense you'd probably collect but not so if you have to wait till after the conference season. There are plenty of 1/3 shots before then. And the party got rattled so is trying to string out the leadership election almost till the recess in order to minimise the chance of Labour VONC-ing Boris. The recess will give him eight or so weeks to shore up support during the holidays.

And it’s quite possible it wouldn’t pay out.
The odds are probably about right, which is why it’s not compelling.

Well, it is hard to see why Labour would not call a VONC, and the bet does not depend on whether it is won or lost.

The danger, on reflection, is that Boris takes HYUFD's advice and calls a snap election. Canning occupied Number 10 for 100-odd days. Boris could break that record if he is not careful.

I’ve been wrong often enough before, so I’m not going to argue.

AndyJS

Mysticrose said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

India need their 5th highest run chase in ODIs to win the match, and second highest against England.

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/content/records/93518.html

And the highest ever World Cup run chase

Yep, and the highest at Edgbaston by quite some margin.

Charles

FPT

IanB2 said:

You’re right to identify that one of the obstacles to financial independence has always been the need for redistribution between richer and poorer areas; even within a ‘rich’ area like London, funds are redistributed from Westminster to other Boroughs, given the former’s massive business rate base.

One option is that the government would continue to manage this, as it does now through the local government grant process. A better option is that this be put in the hands of the LGA, which has a good track record of advocating in the interests of all authorities and less likely than government to bias the formula one way or the other depending on which party is dominant.

On this basis it would be possible to devolve the tax base to local government without any winners or losers - they take over the current council tax and business rate tax bases as is.

One of the challenges to my suggestion is of course that it would be better to replace both with some sort of land value tax.

The trick is to allocate responsibilities and resources appropriately.

It seems to me that local councils should be largely about local service delivery - bins etc - plus mandated service delivery (e.g. social care).

Where it is local service delivery they should set council tax (or whatever) to fund this. If they want to have any pet projects they should justify them and fund them through tax. Mandated service delivery should be funded in full by central government.

If you are going down a federal route, you need to have an interim government level as well, which is much more challenging. But that could be funded by things like business rates and a local sales tax (replacing VAT). You can have a mechanism for redistribution as well from business rates.

And then regions could choose the balance of tax and spending that suits their needs and desires best.

IanB2 said:

A constitution protects local government in other democracies from the whim of central government; in the UK the government is able to merge or abolish councils, change their funding, remove or curtail their powers, direct their internal organisation, all at whim of whichever party has a majority based on 35%+ of the popular vote at the time.

I would go for a much more narrow technical document with supermajority or dual consent provisions to change it. A broader document is going to end up reflecting the concerns of the day and will cause no end of trouble in future.

An example would be the right to bear arms in the US constitution. It was a very important issue when it was passed, but today it is less appropriate but very difficult to change

Barnesian

HYUFD said:

Fine, it is clear the current Zombie Commons cannot deliver anything having voted against the Withdrawal Agreement, voted against No Deal and voted against staying in the Single Market and Customs Union and voted against Revoke and voted against EUref2.

If the Commons backs a VONC fine in PM Boris fine, let us then have a general election and let the voters decide, give Boris a Tory majority and he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal but aim for a FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by confirmatory referendum if need be, not the DUP.

If not then we get a Labour, LD and SNP Government most likely and either EUref2 or revoke or Single Market and Customs Union BINO but at least we would actually get somewhere rather than the current limbo

Yep l think you've covered all the options there.

AlastairMeeks

OldKingCole said:

Probably been commented on in the earlier threads ...... been watching g the cricket and sorting out other bits.... but I've just seen Jeremy Hunts statement that if a No Deal departure from the EU means he would have to tell businesses that it would be disastrous for them, he would do so.

Reminds me of a caricature of a WWI General

We’ve seen a lot of Brexit the Destroyer, but not much of the Creator or the Preserver, despite the many sacrifices that the faithful are ready to make to propitiate the God.

Charles

For me it hinges on the principle of consent for NI.

It is difficult to argue against allowing the NI a referendum on whether to have a backstop or a hard border.

The DUP might try, but I doubt it would win them many friends in the region, which might give them pause for reflection.

Force the extremists to face the consequences of their intransigence.

If we have a hard border with the consent of the people of NI, then that's their choice. If they chose to maintain the current fudged situation then that's their choice as well

Nigelb

Woakes !

Barnesian

If Johnson asks the Queen to prorogue parliament l think the Queen will consult the Privy Councli who are her advisors. There about 650 off them. That will take some time. In the meanwhile ....

Nigelb

Archer seems to have found his length.

kinabalu

The only obvious way this bet fails is if Johnson preempts it by calling an election. I do not think he will - I really don't - but it must be a strong possibility.

Barnesian

Charles said:

For me it hinges on the principle of consent for NI.

It is difficult to argue against allowing the NI a referendum on whether to have a backstop or a hard border.

The DUP might try, but I doubt it would win them many friends in the region, which might give them pause for reflection.

Force the extremists to face the consequences of their intransigence.

If we have a hard border with the consent of the people of NI, then that's their choice. If they chose to maintain the current fudged situation then that's their choice as well

The DUP will vote against it no matter how reasonable it seems.

Nigelb

Barnesian said:

Charles said:

For me it hinges on the principle of consent for NI.

It is difficult to argue against allowing the NI a referendum on whether to have a backstop or a hard border.

The DUP might try, but I doubt it would win them many friends in the region, which might give them pause for reflection.

Force the extremists to face the consequences of their intransigence.

If we have a hard border with the consent of the people of NI, then that's their choice. If they chose to maintain the current fudged situation then that's their choice as well

The DUP will vote against it no matter how reasonable it seems.

The only way such a referendum might happen anyway is post an election, so it doesn’t much matter what the DUP think.

Charles

Barnesian said:

Charles said:

For me it hinges on the principle of consent for NI.

It is difficult to argue against allowing the NI a referendum on whether to have a backstop or a hard border.

The DUP might try, but I doubt it would win them many friends in the region, which might give them pause for reflection.

Force the extremists to face the consequences of their intransigence.

If we have a hard border with the consent of the people of NI, then that's their choice. If they chose to maintain the current fudged situation then that's their choice as well

The DUP will vote against it no matter how reasonable it seems.

And then pay the political cost in Northern Ireland.

But I would hope that the principle of consent would allow more of the ERG to come on board.

OldKingCole

Barnesian said:

Charles said:

For me it hinges on the principle of consent for NI.

It is difficult to argue against allowing the NI a referendum on whether to have a backstop or a hard border.

The DUP might try, but I doubt it would win them many friends in the region, which might give them pause for reflection.

Force the extremists to face the consequences of their intransigence.

If we have a hard border with the consent of the people of NI, then that's their choice. If they chose to maintain the current fudged situation then that's their choice as well

The DUP will vote against it no matter how reasonable it seems.

They are, of course, divinely inspired.

Nigelb

Vettel gambles on a fresh set of softs; Bottas in Verstappen’s sights.

This is a fun GP.

AndyJS

If Corbyn is given a choice between trying to form a government with the present composition of the House of Commons or having a general election, which would he choose?

Nigelb

Snapping at Leclerc’s heels next.

bigjohnowls

AndyJS said:

If Corbyn is given a choice between trying to form a government with the present composition of the House of Commons or having a general election, which would he choose?

GE

AndyJS

bigjohnowls said:

AndyJS said:

If Corbyn is given a choice between trying to form a government with the present composition of the House of Commons or having a general election, which would he choose?

GE

That's what I thought, but even if the polls remain as they are now with 4 parties on about 20-25%?

OldKingCole

bigjohnowls said:

AndyJS said:

If Corbyn is given a choice between trying to form a government with the present composition of the House of Commons or having a general election, which would he choose?

GE

Seconded. He'd try and get a few local Labour parties to get rid of recalcitrant MP's before, though.

bigjohnowls

AndyJS said:

bigjohnowls said:

AndyJS said:

If Corbyn is given a choice between trying to form a government with the present composition of the House of Commons or having a general election, which would he choose?

GE

That's what I thought, but even if the polls remain as they are now with 4 parties on about 20-25%?

Yep Corbyn starts all GE on 20-25%

Pulpstar

Brown trouser time for @Jbriskinindyref2

Barnesian

Charles said:

Barnesian said:

Charles said:

For me it hinges on the principle of consent for NI.

It is difficult to argue against allowing the NI a referendum on whether to have a backstop or a hard border.

The DUP might try, but I doubt it would win them many friends in the region, which might give them pause for reflection.

Force the extremists to face the consequences of their intransigence.

If we have a hard border with the consent of the people of NI, then that's their choice. If they chose to maintain the current fudged situation then that's their choice as well

The DUP will vote against it no matter how reasonable it seems.

And then pay the political cost in Northern Ireland.

But I would hope that the principle of consent would allow more of the ERG to come on board.

Hope is the last thing to die

DecrepitJohnL

Pulpstar said:

Brown trouser time for @Jbriskinindyref2

The Verstappen layer from two threads back?

Nigelb

The extreme heat in Austria has turned this GP into a classic.

Gallowgate

bigjohnowls said:

AndyJS said:

bigjohnowls said:

AndyJS said:

If Corbyn is given a choice between trying to form a government with the present composition of the House of Commons or having a general election, which would he choose?

GE

That's what I thought, but even if the polls remain as they are now with 4 parties on about 20-25%?

Yep Corbyn starts all GE on 20-25%

Based on a dataset of 1.

Sandpit

Nigelb said:

The extreme heat in Austria has turned this GP into a classic.

It’s a great race, in sharp contrast to last Sunday’s effort.

Nigelb

Sandpit said:

Nigelb said:

The extreme heat in Austria has turned this GP into a classic.

It’s a great race, in sharp contrast to last Sunday’s effort.

The heat has seriously handicapped Mercedes, and apparently Ferrari too a bit, which made it a three way fight.

OldKingCole

India now need almost 8 an over.

Nigelb

Leclerc is a fine driver.
(We already knew about Verstappen.)

StuartDickson

another_richard said:

SouthamObserver said:

StuartDickson said:

As far as I am aware, these are the first two constituency markets to be listed (both Shadsy). Unusually late, considering that the next GE can’t be far off.

Islington North LAB MAJ (Jeremy Corbyn) 33,215

Lab 1/10
LD 6/1
Bxp 50/1
Con 50/1

(Baxter: Lab 46%, LD 26%, Bxp 10%, Grn 9%, Con 8%)

Uxbridge and South Ruislip CON MAJ (Boris Johnson) 5,034

Con 1/5
Lab 5/1
Bxp 10/1
LD 50/1

(Baxter: Con 27%, Lab 26%, Bxp 21%, LD 15%, Grn 8%)

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/area_lond.html

Looks about right.

It must have been a very niche group of Poles you encountered in Poland. Either that or they were trying to impress you because Polish GDP per capita is less than half what it is in the UK:

https://tradingeconomics.com/poland/gdp-per-capita

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita

Now there's more to economics than GDP, even more to living standards and yet more to quality of life but the likelihood of Poland matching the UK economy is pretty slim in the foreseeable future.

That’s a keeper.

Sandpit

Nigelb said:

Leclerc is a fine driver.
(We already knew about Verstappen.)

We’ve got ten years of these two fighting each other!

Nigelb

Sandpit said:

Nigelb said:

Leclerc is a fine driver.
(We already knew about Verstappen.)

We’ve got ten years of these two fighting each other!

Hope so !

paulyork64

Nigelb said:

Leclerc is a fine driver.
(We already knew about Verstappen.)

got 9/1 verstappen just after he got past Vettel. happy days.

edit - unless stewards intervene.

Nigelb

And now the stewards....

Sandpit

Ooh, another stewards’ enquiry!

Nigelb

Wood, this is not the pitch to bowl short on !


Particularly to a well set batsman.

Pulpstar

Nigelb said:

And now the stewards....

Hard racing imo

Nigelb

Pulpstar said:

Nigelb said:

And now the stewards....

Hard racing imo

Agreed - but under a strict interpretation of the rules (which need some thinking about), very marginal indeed.

StuartDickson

HYUFD said:

Fine, it is clear the current Zombie Commons cannot deliver anything having voted against the Withdrawal Agreement, voted against No Deal and voted against staying in the Single Market and Customs Union and voted against Revoke and voted against EUref2.

If the Commons backs a VONC fine in PM Boris fine, let us then have a general election and let the voters decide, give Boris a Tory majority and he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal but aim for a FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by confirmatory referendum if need be, not the DUP.

If not then we get a Labour, LD and SNP Government most likely and either EUref2 or revoke or Single Market and Customs Union BINO but at least we would actually get somewhere rather than the current limbo

First sensible post from you in a while. Glad to see the fever lifting.

Sandpit

Nigelb said:

Pulpstar said:

Nigelb said:

And now the stewards....

Hard racing imo

Agreed - but under a strict interpretation of the rules (which need some thinking about), very marginal indeed.

It’s awfully close under the rules as they stand. You’re supposed to leave a car’s width, which Max didn’t do.

Andy_Cooke

Having seen the Leaver anger at the stance that theclaim that Turkey was about to join the EU was not exactly honest, how about a compromise that makes both sides happy that they are the truthful ones: we complete our withdrawal on the day Turkey completes its accession?

Nigelb

Sandpit said:

Nigelb said:

Pulpstar said:

Nigelb said:

And now the stewards....

Hard racing imo

Agreed - but under a strict interpretation of the rules (which need some thinking about), very marginal indeed.

It’s awfully close under the rules as they stand. You’re supposed to leave a car’s width, which Max didn’t do.

The silly thing is that he really didn’t need to squeeze him quite so much.
He’s a great driver, but he need to learn to use his brain a bit more.

HYUFD

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

Fine, it is clear the current Zombie Commons cannot deliver anything having voted against the Withdrawal Agreement, voted against No Deal and voted against staying in the Single Market and Customs Union and voted against Revoke and voted against EUref2.

If the Commons backs a VONC fine in PM Boris fine, let us then have a general election and let the voters decide, give Boris a Tory majority and he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal but aim for a FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by confirmatory referendum if need be, not the DUP.

If not then we get a Labour, LD and SNP Government most likely and either EUref2 or revoke or Single Market and Customs Union BINO but at least we would actually get somewhere rather than the current limbo

First sensible post from you in a while. Glad to see the fever lifting.

Good to see you, myself and Nick Palmer in rare agreement

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

F1: the Verstappen win should stand.

Not least because I tipped him (hedged) at 7.8.

Edited extra bit: that was an astoundingly good race, incidentally. I think the secret to improving F1 is clear: sabotage Mercedes before every race weekend.

nichomar

Andy_Cooke said:

Having seen the Leaver anger at the stance that theclaim that Turkey was about to join the EU was not exactly honest, how about a compromise that makes both sides happy that they are the truthful ones: we complete our withdrawal on the day Turkey completes its accession?

Yes I’ll sign up to that.

paulyork64

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

F1: the Verstappen win should stand.

Not least because I tipped him (hedged) at 7.8.

Edited extra bit: that was an astoundingly good race, incidentally. I think the secret to improving F1 is clear: sabotage Mercedes before every race weekend.

365 pay out on the results at the time of podium presentation. I think that's the standard rule.

williamglenn

Andy_Cooke said:

Having seen the Leaver anger at the stance that theclaim that Turkey was about to join the EU was not exactly honest, how about a compromise that makes both sides happy that they are the truthful ones: we complete our withdrawal on the day Turkey completes its accession?

That's effectively a referendum on whether we would let Turkey join. France had a referendum on the original expansion that saw the UK join, so it's not without precedent.

Nigelb

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

F1: the Verstappen win should stand.

Not least because I tipped him (hedged) at 7.8.

Edited extra bit: that was an astoundingly good race, incidentally. I think the secret to improving F1 is clear: sabotage Mercedes before every race weekend.

Mercedes’s cooling problem in low drag configuration suggests Monza isn’t going to be great for them, either.

AndyJS

20,000 India fans at Edgbaston must be getting a bit restless with this batting performance.

Nigelb

AndyJS said:

20,000 India fans at Edgbaston must be getting a bit restless with this batting performance.

I’m getting a bit restless with Wood’s bowling.
He’s giving Bairstow a lot of exercise.

Sandpit

AndyJS said:

20,000 India fans at Edgbaston must be getting a bit restless with this batting performance.

So long as they behave themselves better than the Pakistan and Afghanistan fans did yesterday.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. 64, long time since this has been a potential issue for me with a bet.

We'll see what happens.

Mr. B, that may prove to be a very astute observation. What surprised me was the competitiveness of Verstappen.

AndyJS

Sandpit said:

AndyJS said:

20,000 India fans at Edgbaston must be getting a bit restless with this batting performance.

So long as they behave themselves better than the Pakistan and Afghanistan fans did yesterday.

Did anything serious happen there? I know there were a few minor scuffles.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1145327522592280576

Sandpit

AndyJS said:

Sandpit said:

AndyJS said:

20,000 India fans at Edgbaston must be getting a bit restless with this batting performance.

So long as they behave themselves better than the Pakistan and Afghanistan fans did yesterday.

Did anything serious happen there? I know there were a few minor scuffles.

I think it was more than minor scuffles, but somewhat short of a riot.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7195455/Raging-Pakistan-Afghanistan-fans-fight-violence-erupts-World-Cup-clash.html

TheScreamingEagles

Gonna back India.

Because if Pant's on fire he'll easily win it for India.

Foxy

AlastairMeeks said:

All those hypothetical trade deals the UK might eventually strike are highly hypothetical. Meanwhile, hard on the heels of Mercosur:

https://twitter.com/eu_commission/status/1145248175151878145?s=21

As a matter of interest, is there a nation or customs Union with more FTAs in place than the "protectionist" EU?

rkrkrk

Betting on a VONC looks value at those odds.

As to No Deal, am increasingly worried the EU may lose patience and kick us out in October. That might alter the blame game somewhat but suspect is bad news for all concerned.

IanB2

I think a “do deal” Brexit is a Freudian typo?

Sunil_Prasannan

OldKingCole said:

India now need almost 8 an over.

Come on Indi...er, I mean England! (Oopps!!)

Morris_Dancer

Vettel's view:
https://twitter.com/robwattsf1/status/1145346691740196864

Sunil_Prasannan

Sandpit said:

AndyJS said:

Sandpit said:

AndyJS said:

20,000 India fans at Edgbaston must be getting a bit restless with this batting performance.

So long as they behave themselves better than the Pakistan and Afghanistan fans did yesterday.

Did anything serious happen there? I know there were a few minor scuffles.

I think it was more than minor scuffles, but somewhat short of a riot.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7195455/Raging-Pakistan-Afghanistan-fans-fight-violence-erupts-World-Cup-clash.html

Durand Line?

Nigelb

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 64, long time since this has been a potential issue for me with a bet.

We'll see what happens.

Mr. B, that may prove to be a very astute observation. What surprised me was the competitiveness of Verstappen.

Ferrari have been a bit rubbish on the hard tyres - was that a contributing factor ?

Looking at the incident again, it seems Leclerc was slightly ahead going in to the corner.
Under the rules, Verstappen should have left him some room. And his entitled attitude does not endear him to me.

Charles

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

All those hypothetical trade deals the UK might eventually strike are highly hypothetical. Meanwhile, hard on the heels of Mercosur:

https://twitter.com/eu_commission/status/1145248175151878145?s=21

As a matter of interest, is there a nation or customs Union with more FTAs in place than the "protectionist" EU?

Out of interest, what percentage of the EU's deals have been agreed in the last 3 years. It's almost as if they needed an incentive to perform.

IanB2

A poll for HY:

”In total 93% of constituencies have seen a move to Remain with just 7% in the opposite direction, the analysis shows.”

https://t.co/rHZ4wmPRXz

Gallowgate

Charles said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

All those hypothetical trade deals the UK might eventually strike are highly hypothetical. Meanwhile, hard on the heels of Mercosur:

https://twitter.com/eu_commission/status/1145248175151878145?s=21

As a matter of interest, is there a nation or customs Union with more FTAs in place than the "protectionist" EU?

Out of interest, what percentage of the EU's deals have been agreed in the last 3 years. It's almost as if they needed an incentive to perform.

Now they've performed we can revoke Article 50 to enjoy the benefits.

Sneaky plan.

Nigelb

Morris_Dancer said:

Vettel's view:
https://twitter.com/robwattsf1/status/1145346691740196864

I wholeheartedly agree the rules should be looked at, but that is not a matter for the race stewards, and they ought to applied consistently. Doing the latter would be to penalise Verstappen.

Norris showed how to race hard and cleanly under the current rules.

AndyJS

O/T

53% of UK energy is currently being produced by wind or solar power.

https://gridwatch.templar.co.uk

AlastairMeeks

Partly prompted by @Pulpstar I have today backed Joe Biden at 7.2 and Bernie Sanders at 12.5 for the Democrat nomination. Sure, they underperformed in the debate but they still seem to be the two front runners in the polls and they both seem to have been oversold.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. B, Verstappen's attitude can be unlikeable.

He didn't leave a car's width. On the other hand, he did take the racing line, he didn't alter his approach to harm Leclerc.

logical_song

AndyJS said:

O/T

53% of UK energy is currently being produced by wind or solar power.

https://gridwatch.templar.co.uk

Good, sunny and breezy at the same time.

Sandpit

Charles said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

All those hypothetical trade deals the UK might eventually strike are highly hypothetical. Meanwhile, hard on the heels of Mercosur:

https://twitter.com/eu_commission/status/1145248175151878145?s=21

As a matter of interest, is there a nation or customs Union with more FTAs in place than the "protectionist" EU?

Out of interest, what percentage of the EU's deals have been agreed in the last 3 years. It's almost as if they needed an incentive to perform.

It would also be useful to see some analysis of the costs and benefits of such deals from a U.K. perspective. I suspect that the quantity of these deals is somewhat higher than the quality.

As an example, the treatment of car tariffs in the EU/Japan deal, which predictably resulted in Japanese companies binning European factories (which are disproportionally British).

Nigelb

Starting to look ominous for England.

TheScreamingEagles

AlastairMeeks said:

Partly prompted by @Pulpstar I have today backed Joe Biden at 7.2 and Bernie Sanders at 12.5 for the Democrat nomination. Sure, they underperformed in the debate but they still seem to be the two front runners in the polls and they both seem to have been oversold.

Is this another market I'm going to have to reverse ferret in?

Nigelb

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, Verstappen's attitude can be unlikeable.

He didn't leave a car's width. On the other hand, he did take the racing line, he didn't alter his approach to harm Leclerc.

There is no one racing line. This looks pretty clear that leclerc was ahead when he turned in:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D-UWxVBXkAI8efl.jpg:large

Alistair

AlastairMeeks said:

Partly prompted by @Pulpstar I have today backed Joe Biden at 7.2 and Bernie Sanders at 12.5 for the Democrat nomination. Sure, they underperformed in the debate but they still seem to be the two front runners in the polls and they both seem to have been oversold.

This is one of those situations where you need to predict the market and not the facts.

I agree Biden is currently too long at 7.2, hilariously so. But I can easily see him staying there all the way to Iowa where he comes in third and then his price totally balloons.

Just because the polls are giving him a massive lead doesn't mean the market is going to correct itself.

kinabalu

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

F1: the Verstappen win should stand.

Not least because I tipped him (hedged) at 7.8.

Edited extra bit: that was an astoundingly good race, incidentally. I think the secret to improving F1 is clear: sabotage Mercedes before every race weekend.

Pay on podium. You win.

Philip_Thompson

Nigelb said:

Starting to look ominous for England.

They still need >8 per over from here. We could do with a wicket though.

Alistair

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Partly prompted by @Pulpstar I have today backed Joe Biden at 7.2 and Bernie Sanders at 12.5 for the Democrat nomination. Sure, they underperformed in the debate but they still seem to be the two front runners in the polls and they both seem to have been oversold.

Is this another market I'm going to have to reverse ferret in?

You can relive your 2016 Republican nominee glory days.

Sandpit

Nigelb said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, Verstappen's attitude can be unlikeable.

He didn't leave a car's width. On the other hand, he did take the racing line, he didn't alter his approach to harm Leclerc.

There is no one racing line. This looks pretty clear that leclerc was ahead when he turned in:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D-UWxVBXkAI8efl.jpg:large

The comments from the Sky commentators are much less clear-cut than they were against Vettel’s penalty in Canada.

Except for the first lap, todays incident is a slam-dunk penalty in any other circumstances (...than having already given out the trophies and making the sport look silly after an otherwise great race).

Morris_Dancer

F1: stewards meeting at 5pm.

Faffing.