Partly prompted by @Pulpstar I have today backed Joe Biden at 7.2 and Bernie Sanders at 12.5 for the Democrat nomination. Sure, they underperformed in the debate but they still seem to be the two front runners in the polls and they both seem to have been oversold.
This is one of those situations where you need to predict the market and not the facts.
I agree Biden is currently too long at 7.2, hilariously so. But I can easily see him staying there all the way to Iowa where he comes in third and then his price totally balloons.
Just because the polls are giving him a massive lead doesn't mean the market is going to correct itself.
Yes, perception is all. It’s an interesting contest specifically because it’s not a two way fight. We could easily see four or five candidates staying in deep into the contest.
Mr. Sandpit, probably couldn't arrange escape by helicopter any sooner.
If F1 has a questionable decision alter the winner in Canada, a very boring race in France, and a classic in Austria with the winner again changed by stewards after the race has finished a lot of people are going to be hacked off.
Partly prompted by @Pulpstar I have today backed Joe Biden at 7.2 and Bernie Sanders at 12.5 for the Democrat nomination. Sure, they underperformed in the debate but they still seem to be the two front runners in the polls and they both seem to have been oversold.
Is this another market I'm going to have to reverse ferret in?
You can relive your 2016 Republican nominee glory days.
They still need >8 per over from here. We could do with a wicket though.
7 an over at the moment which makes it finely poised
England ruing the drop and India ruing their poor start in run terms.
Much more of this hitting, and it’s going to be goodnight England.
Rather premature. A wicket can change a lot. Based on the rule of thumb of double the score of 30 overs India still seem a bit below par.
I got laughed at on here earlier (quite correctly, as it turned out!) for suggesting that England, being 200/1 after 30 overs, might have come close to 400. In fact, their run rate barely changed for the last 20 overs.
They still need >8 per over from here. We could do with a wicket though.
7 an over at the moment which makes it finely poised
England ruing the drop and India ruing their poor start in run terms.
Much more of this hitting, and it’s going to be goodnight England.
Rather premature. A wicket can change a lot. Based on the rule of thumb of double the score of 30 overs India still seem a bit below par.
I got laughed at on here earlier (quite correctly, as it turned out!) for suggesting that England, being 200/1 after 30 overs, might have come close to 400. In fact, their run rate barely changed for the last 20 overs.
If we hadn't lost so many wickets so swiftly after each other we could have done. Let's hope India can't accelerate either.
They still need >8 per over from here. We could do with a wicket though.
7 an over at the moment which makes it finely poised
England ruing the drop and India ruing their poor start in run terms.
Much more of this hitting, and it’s going to be goodnight England.
Rather premature. A wicket can change a lot. Based on the rule of thumb of double the score of 30 overs India still seem a bit below par.
I got laughed at on here earlier (quite correctly, as it turned out!) for suggesting that England, being 200/1 after 30 overs, might have come close to 400. In fact, their run rate barely changed for the last 20 overs.
If we hadn't lost so many wickets so swiftly after each other we could have done. Let's hope India can't accelerate either.
We were about 220 off 36, that's the mark I think. If we can get them under 200, that would be best
Looking at the calendar, it looks to me that if Parliament wants to block No Deal Brexit, they have a couple of working days to do it after the election of Boris (as expected). No more.
Assume Boris is intransigent and refuses; Parliament has to recourse to a VoNC. Assume that passes. When is the last safe date?
Work back from 31st October (a Thursday). An election on that date is too late, unless the PM has already requested an extension.
So the last safe date for an election is 24th October. With 25 working days required, that makes the calling of the election either the 18th or 19th of September (depending on whether the 25 working days includes the day that the election is called or not. At least there are no Bank Holidays to confuse matters)
If the election is called by the expiry of the two week clock after a VoNC, that means the VoNC has to be no later than the 4th or 5th of September. Possibly the 3rd, depending on whether the day of the VoNC is included in those two weeks. (Unless, of course, Parliament selects and votes confidence in an alternative PM. Which gives the question: will everyone, including the expected rebel Tories, LDs, Independents, SNP, etc, unite behind Corbyn? I have considerable doubts there. And if not, will Corbyn and the Corbynites (great name for a band; are they at Glastonbury this year?) willingly accept another candidate? After all, he is the Leader of the Opposition. If so, who would unite the House?)
So - unless Boris voluntarily blinks, and unless the House unites behind someone (which I find hard to see, but it could just be me), whatever ultimatum or manouevres Parliament attempt must be completed in time for a VoNC by 3rd September (to be safe) or 5th September (getting everyone scouring the lines of the legislation).
The House rises for summer recess on July 25th and returns on 3rd September, right? The accepted accession of The Boris is July 23rd. That's two to four working days.
Boris doesn't need to prorogue Parliament. Just string them along for a couple of working days; job done. Or am I missing something really obvious?
Interestingly, Betfair have paid out their F1 markets. Their Ts and Cs state that the published result at the time of the podium ceremony will settle their markets.
Not affecting me, but will no doubt annoy a few people (who will be reminded to look more closely next time at the terms of the market).
They still need >8 per over from here. We could do with a wicket though.
7 an over at the moment which makes it finely poised
England ruing the drop and India ruing their poor start in run terms.
Much more of this hitting, and it’s going to be goodnight England.
Rather premature. A wicket can change a lot. Based on the rule of thumb of double the score of 30 overs India still seem a bit below par.
I got laughed at on here earlier (quite correctly, as it turned out!) for suggesting that England, being 200/1 after 30 overs, might have come close to 400. In fact, their run rate barely changed for the last 20 overs.
If we hadn't lost so many wickets so swiftly after each other we could have done. Let's hope India can't accelerate either.
We were about 220 off 36, that's the mark I think. If we can get them under 200, that would be best
Key is going to be what happens with our more expensive bowlers, and how Morgan can shuffle them.
They still need >8 per over from here. We could do with a wicket though.
7 an over at the moment which makes it finely poised
England ruing the drop and India ruing their poor start in run terms.
Much more of this hitting, and it’s going to be goodnight England.
Rather premature. A wicket can change a lot. Based on the rule of thumb of double the score of 30 overs India still seem a bit below par.
I got laughed at on here earlier (quite correctly, as it turned out!) for suggesting that England, being 200/1 after 30 overs, might have come close to 400. In fact, their run rate barely changed for the last 20 overs.
If we hadn't lost so many wickets so swiftly after each other we could have done. Let's hope India can't accelerate either.
We were about 220 off 36, that's the mark I think. If we can get them under 200, that would be best
Key is going to be what happens with our more expensive bowlers, and how Morgan can shuffle them.
....Wood back for two instantaneous boundaries.
We only need one more over from Rashid or Stokes, though. So Wood is the "expensive" one (and he hasn't been too bad)
For me it hinges on the principle of consent for NI.
It is difficult to argue against allowing the NI a referendum on whether to have a backstop or a hard border.
The DUP might try, but I doubt it would win them many friends in the region, which might give them pause for reflection.
Force the extremists to face the consequences of their intransigence.
If we have a hard border with the consent of the people of NI, then that's their choice. If they chose to maintain the current fudged situation then that's their choice as well
Surely Johnson's plan will be not to declare he's going to take us out without a deal, but to keep up the pretence of renegotiation until it's too late for a vote of no confidence?
Partly prompted by @Pulpstar I have today backed Joe Biden at 7.2 and Bernie Sanders at 12.5 for the Democrat nomination. Sure, they underperformed in the debate but they still seem to be the two front runners in the polls and they both seem to have been oversold.
Is this another market I'm going to have to reverse ferret in?
Harris has had a good few days, but I still think Dems will end up going safety first with Biden.
But he needs to shake himself up a bit. He lacked energy in that debate. Age will become an issue if there is not more spark. The line “My time is up. I’m sorry” was an obvious gaffe.
For me it hinges on the principle of consent for NI.
It is difficult to argue against allowing the NI a referendum on whether to have a backstop or a hard border.
The DUP might try, but I doubt it would win them many friends in the region, which might give them pause for reflection.
Force the extremists to face the consequences of their intransigence.
If we have a hard border with the consent of the people of NI, then that's their choice. If they chose to maintain the current fudged situation then that's their choice as well
+1
+1 on condition that the people of NI can change the situation unilaterally in the future.
Given they will in the backstop be following laws they have no say in they must have a unilateral right to exit that or there is no ongoing principle of consent.
As to No Deal, am increasingly worried the EU may lose patience and kick us out in October. That might alter the blame game somewhat but suspect is bad news for all concerned.
No Deal will hurt Ireland both economically and with a hard border.
I think it is much more likely that the EU will give us a four year extension.
"You've got your MEPS, you have access to the Single Market, you are paying your contributions. We have much more important issues to sort out than Brexit. Come back to us when you have decided what you want with a majority in parliament and don't waste our time. You know our red lines."
Looking at the calendar, it looks to me that if Parliament wants to block No Deal Brexit, they have a couple of working days to do it after the election of Boris (as expected). No more.
Assume Boris is intransigent and refuses; Parliament has to recourse to a VoNC. Assume that passes. When is the last safe date?
Work back from 31st October (a Thursday). An election on that date is too late, unless the PM has already requested an extension.
So the last safe date for an election is 24th October. With 25 working days required, that makes the calling of the election either the 18th or 19th of September (depending on whether the 25 working days includes the day that the election is called or not. At least there are no Bank Holidays to confuse matters)
If the election is called by the expiry of the two week clock after a VoNC, that means the VoNC has to be no later than the 4th or 5th of September. Possibly the 3rd, depending on whether the day of the VoNC is included in those two weeks. (Unless, of course, Parliament selects and votes confidence in an alternative PM. Which gives the question: will everyone, including the expected rebel Tories, LDs, Independents, SNP, etc, unite behind Corbyn? I have considerable doubts there. And if not, will Corbyn and the Corbynites (great name for a band; are they at Glastonbury this year?) willingly accept another candidate? After all, he is the Leader of the Opposition. If so, who would unite the House?)
So - unless Boris voluntarily blinks, and unless the House unites behind someone (which I find hard to see, but it could just be me), whatever ultimatum or manouevres Parliament attempt must be completed in time for a VoNC by 3rd September (to be safe) or 5th September (getting everyone scouring the lines of the legislation).
The House rises for summer recess on July 25th and returns on 3rd September, right? The accepted accession of The Boris is July 23rd. That's two to four working days.
Boris doesn't need to prorogue Parliament. Just string them along for a couple of working days; job done. Or am I missing something really obvious?
Most legislatures have a procedure for recalling themselves from recess in an emergency?
+1 on condition that the people of NI can change the situation unilaterally in the future.
Given they will in the backstop be following laws they have no say in they must have a unilateral right to exit that or there is no ongoing principle of consent.
Then it's not a backstop. For it to be a backstop you can have a time limit but you can't have a unilateral right of exit.
As to No Deal, am increasingly worried the EU may lose patience and kick us out in October. That might alter the blame game somewhat but suspect is bad news for all concerned.
No Deal will hurt Ireland both economically and with a hard border.
I think it is much more likely that the EU will give us a four year extension.
"You've got your MEPS, you have access to the Single Market, you are paying your contributions. We have much more important issues to sort out than Brexit. Come back to us when you have decided what you want with a majority in parliament and don't waste our time. You know our red lines."
That’s possible. And, cynically, it plays into the hands of those who want a continuing grievance. But they wouldn’t really be “kicking us out” come October. The extension will just expire by automatic operation of law and, really, that’s all the EU is - a collection of laws. It would require a positive action on their part, just a passive decision not to act
'Vote Tory, get Corbyn': Nigel Farage demands the Tories STAND ASIDE and give the Brexit Party a free run in Labour seats as he unveils more than ONE HUNDRED candidates to stand in a general election
Looking at the calendar, it looks to me that if Parliament wants to block No Deal Brexit, they have a couple of working days to do it after the election of Boris (as expected). No more.
Assume Boris is intransigent and refuses; Parliament has to recourse to a VoNC. Assume that passes. When is the last safe date?
Work back from 31st October (a Thursday). An election on that date is too late, unless the PM has already requested an extension.
So the last safe date for an election is 24th October. With 25 working days required, that makes the calling of the election either the 18th or 19th of September (depending on whether the 25 working days includes the day that the election is called or not. At least there are no Bank Holidays to confuse matters)
If the election is called by the expiry of the two week clock after a VoNC, that means the VoNC has to be no later than the 4th or 5th of September. Possibly the 3rd, depending on whether the day of the VoNC is included in those two weeks. (Unless, of course, Parliament selects and votes confidence in an alternative PM. Which gives the question: will everyone, including the expected rebel Tories, LDs, Independents, SNP, etc, unite behind Corbyn? I have considerable doubts there. And if not, will Corbyn and the Corbynites (great name for a band; are they at Glastonbury this year?) willingly accept another candidate? After all, he is the Leader of the Opposition. If so, who would unite the House?)
So - unless Boris voluntarily blinks, and unless the House unites behind someone (which I find hard to see, but it could just be me), whatever ultimatum or manouevres Parliament attempt must be completed in time for a VoNC by 3rd September (to be safe) or 5th September (getting everyone scouring the lines of the legislation).
The House rises for summer recess on July 25th and returns on 3rd September, right? The accepted accession of The Boris is July 23rd. That's two to four working days.
Boris doesn't need to prorogue Parliament. Just string them along for a couple of working days; job done. Or am I missing something really obvious?
Most legislatures have a procedure for recalling themselves from recess in an emergency?
Commons could legislate for a shorter GE campaign than five weeks. Relatively recent thing.
Looking at the calendar, it looks to me that if Parliament wants to block No Deal Brexit, they have a couple of working days to do it after the election of Boris (as expected). No more.
Assume Boris is intransigent and refuses; Parliament has to recourse to a VoNC. Assume that passes. When is the last safe date?
Work back from 31st October (a Thursday). An election on that date is too late, unless the PM has already requested an extension.
So the last safe date for an election is 24th October. With 25 working days required, that makes the calling of the election either the 18th or 19th of September (depending on whether the 25 working days includes the day that the election is called or not. At least there are no Bank Holidays to confuse matters)
If the election is called by the expiry of the two week clock after a VoNC, that means the VoNC has to be no later than the 4th or 5th of September. Possibly the 3rd, depending on whether the day of the VoNC is included in those two weeks. (Unless, of course, Parliament selects and votes confidence in an alternative PM. Which gives the question: will everyone, including the expected rebel Tories, LDs, Independents, SNP, etc, unite behind Corbyn? I have considerable doubts there. And if not, will Corbyn and the Corbynites (great name for a band; are they at Glastonbury this year?) willingly accept another candidate? After all, he is the Leader of the Opposition. If so, who would unite the House?)
So - unless Boris voluntarily blinks, and unless the House unites behind someone (which I find hard to see, but it could just be me), whatever ultimatum or manouevres Parliament attempt must be completed in time for a VoNC by 3rd September (to be safe) or 5th September (getting everyone scouring the lines of the legislation).
The House rises for summer recess on July 25th and returns on 3rd September, right? The accepted accession of The Boris is July 23rd. That's two to four working days.
Boris doesn't need to prorogue Parliament. Just string them along for a couple of working days; job done. Or am I missing something really obvious?
Most legislatures have a procedure for recalling themselves from recess in an emergency?
Commons could legislate for a shorter GE campaign than five weeks. Relatively recent thing.
That would need Opposition support and Lords approval. Difficult to see that being rushed through.
Will Northern Labour MPs break their own Whip and push a Boris deal over the line?
They might if it becomes clear Boris will stand aside in their seats to let Farage have a clear run if we need an early GE.
Is this the way out of the mess?
No - only if they wish to lose their seats at the next election - even in those areas Labour's vote has a lot of remain votes which they can't afford to lose.
That's why Labour can't go full on remain their best option is a second referendum
'Vote Tory, get Corbyn': Nigel Farage demands the Tories STAND ASIDE and give the Brexit Party a free run in Labour seats as he unveils more than ONE HUNDRED candidates to stand in a general election
Will Northern Labour MPs break their own Whip and push a Boris deal over the line?
They might if it becomes clear Boris will stand aside in their seats to let Farage have a clear run if we need an early GE.
Is this the way out of the mess?
No.
Unlikely that Johnson will step aside for Farage so Farage will split the Brexit vote making it easier for Northern Labour MPs.
Even if Johnson did step aside for Farage, many non ideological Tories wouldn't vote for Farage and the anti Farage voters would vote tactically to keep him out.
I don't think any Labour MPs would break the Labour whip on a VONC on this basis. They'd be thrown out of the party if they did.
'Vote Tory, get Corbyn': Nigel Farage demands the Tories STAND ASIDE and give the Brexit Party a free run in Labour seats as he unveils more than ONE HUNDRED candidates to stand in a general election
lol - I don't know why the DM are giving Farage the publicity as a mainstream party is not going to stand aside for a start-up media reliant entity. The Brexit supporting media own this Brexit mess and all the related problems that will be derived from it....
Will Northern Labour MPs break their own Whip and push a Boris deal over the line?
They might if it becomes clear Boris will stand aside in their seats to let Farage have a clear run if we need an early GE.
Is this the way out of the mess?
No - only if they wish to lose their seats at the next election - even in those areas Labour's vote has a lot of remain votes which they can't afford to lose.
That's why Labour can't go full on remain their best option is a second referendum
For me it hinges on the principle of consent for NI.
It is difficult to argue against allowing the NI a referendum on whether to have a backstop or a hard border.
The DUP might try, but I doubt it would win them many friends in the region, which might give them pause for reflection.
Force the extremists to face the consequences of their intransigence.
If we have a hard border with the consent of the people of NI, then that's their choice. If they chose to maintain the current fudged situation then that's their choice as well
+1
+1 on condition that the people of NI can change the situation unilaterally in the future.
Given they will in the backstop be following laws they have no say in they must have a unilateral right to exit that or there is no ongoing principle of consent.
I think it will be one way: they start in the backstop but can leave at anytime following a referendum.
(I would also suggest that we have the backstop for GB as well, but that we can leave unilaterally). It's quite a good segue to an FTA.
F1: for anyone betting (unlikely as it is) on the stewards' decision, be aware that there's apparently a fake document floating about the internet (#35, but the document number should be fortysomething).
Will Northern Labour MPs break their own Whip and push a Boris deal over the line?
They might if it becomes clear Boris will stand aside in their seats to let Farage have a clear run if we need an early GE.
Is this the way out of the mess?
No - only if they wish to lose their seats at the next election - even in those areas Labour's vote has a lot of remain votes which they can't afford to lose.
That's why Labour can't go full on remain their best option is a second referendum
Not many of them see it that way. Fewer than might say they see it that way, since their actions don't indicate they see it that way. Flint, wrong or not, clearly does believe it at least and she acts accordingly.
Will Northern Labour MPs break their own Whip and push a Boris deal over the line?
They might if it becomes clear Boris will stand aside in their seats to let Farage have a clear run if we need an early GE.
Is this the way out of the mess?
No - only if they wish to lose their seats at the next election - even in those areas Labour's vote has a lot of remain votes which they can't afford to lose.
That's why Labour can't go full on remain their best option is a second referendum
Not many of them see it that way. Fewer than might say they see it that way, since their actions don't indicate they see it that way. Flint, wrong or not, clearly does believe it at least and she acts accordingly.
Will Northern Labour MPs break their own Whip and push a Boris deal over the line?
They might if it becomes clear Boris will stand aside in their seats to let Farage have a clear run if we need an early GE.
Is this the way out of the mess?
No - only if they wish to lose their seats at the next election - even in those areas Labour's vote has a lot of remain votes which they can't afford to lose.
That's why Labour can't go full on remain their best option is a second referendum
Not many of them see it that way. Fewer than might say they see it that way, since their actions don't indicate they see it that way. Flint, wrong or not, clearly does believe it at least and she acts accordingly.
Will Northern Labour MPs break their own Whip and push a Boris deal over the line?
They might if it becomes clear Boris will stand aside in their seats to let Farage have a clear run if we need an early GE.
Is this the way out of the mess?
No - only if they wish to lose their seats at the next election - even in those areas Labour's vote has a lot of remain votes which they can't afford to lose.
That's why Labour can't go full on remain their best option is a second referendum
Not many of them see it that way. Fewer than might say they see it that way, since their actions don't indicate they see it that way. Flint, wrong or not, clearly does believe it at least and she acts accordingly.
I imagine the Conservatives will only be too happy to give TBP a run at East Ham where Stephen Timms clings on by his fingertips (or just under 40,000 if you prefer). Will Farage want to contest every seat - I can't see him putting up a candidate against the ERG members for example - or is he serious about some form of pact with the Conservatives?
As far as a VoNC is concerned, I think this is being overstated. Boris Johnson (assuming it is he) knows the only way to move things forward (and I note the growing concensus on here we cannot go on as we are. Whether we leave on 31/10 or not, what we cannot have is another 12-18 months of inertia) that he can sell to his side is a GE on a commitment to leave on 31/10 either with a WA or not.
That of course leaves him open to attack from Farage on one flank who will argue the WA is a mistake along with the £39 billion and we should just walk out the door but that's something Boris is going to have to prepare for while he holds his own party together with a commitment to leave with the WA if it can be voted through with a new Conservative majority.
On the assumption Corbyn's Labour wants a GE (and that might cause a split in itself within Labour) it will happen - my guess the vote in early September leads to a GE on October 10th or 17th.
Partly prompted by @Pulpstar I have today backed Joe Biden at 7.2 and Bernie Sanders at 12.5 for the Democrat nomination. Sure, they underperformed in the debate but they still seem to be the two front runners in the polls and they both seem to have been oversold.
Is this another market I'm going to have to reverse ferret in?
Harris has had a good few days, but I still think Dems will end up going safety first with Biden.
But he needs to shake himself up a bit. He lacked energy in that debate. Age will become an issue if there is not more spark. The line “My time is up. I’m sorry” was an obvious gaffe.
Gaffe-prone Jo is the risky option. He too effing old and it shows
Will Northern Labour MPs break their own Whip and push a Boris deal over the line?
They might if it becomes clear Boris will stand aside in their seats to let Farage have a clear run if we need an early GE.
Is this the way out of the mess?
No - only if they wish to lose their seats at the next election - even in those areas Labour's vote has a lot of remain votes which they can't afford to lose.
That's why Labour can't go full on remain their best option is a second referendum
Not many of them see it that way. Fewer than might say they see it that way, since their actions don't indicate they see it that way. Flint, wrong or not, clearly does believe it at least and she acts accordingly.
Indian bookmarkers been on the phone? Indians play seems like it. Loads of money on the over / under 300 line?
A couple more wides might really screw that strategy!
I am sure dhoni can manage to miss a couple if required.
This game screams bent. The ridiculous slow start and end.
Thankfully I piled on England to win this one, and tend to stay well away from the more esoteric markets around cricket matches as they’ve been proved to be susceptible to people seeking to influence the match. Oh, and won’t bet on any match involving Pakistan.
'Vote Tory, get Corbyn': Nigel Farage demands the Tories STAND ASIDE and give the Brexit Party a free run in Labour seats as he unveils more than ONE HUNDRED candidates to stand in a general election
I imagine the Conservatives will only be too happy to give TBP a run at East Ham where Stephen Timms clings on by his fingertips (or just under 40,000 if you prefer). Will Farage want to contest every seat - I can't see him putting up a candidate against the ERG members for example - or is he serious about some form of pact with the Conservatives?
As far as a VoNC is concerned, I think this is being overstated. Boris Johnson (assuming it is he) knows the only way to move things forward (and I note the growing concensus on here we cannot go on as we are. Whether we leave on 31/10 or not, what we cannot have is another 12-18 months of inertia) that he can sell to his side is a GE on a commitment to leave on 31/10 either with a WA or not.
That of course leaves him open to attack from Farage on one flank who will argue the WA is a mistake along with the £39 billion and we should just walk out the door but that's something Boris is going to have to prepare for while he holds his own party together with a commitment to leave with the WA if it can be voted through with a new Conservative majority.
On the assumption Corbyn's Labour wants a GE (and that might cause a split in itself within Labour) it will happen - my guess the vote in early September leads to a GE on October 10th or 17th.
That doesn’t give time for Parliament to reopen before the 31/10 - which means we would need an extension and that provides Farage with all the ammo he needs to attack Boris.
The one thing this leadership campaign has done is create statements which make both candidates hostage of fortune..
F1 stewards really are waiting for the Dutch fans to go home. The race finished three hours ago, they spoke to the drivers and teams nearly two hours ago, yet they still haven’t made their decision.
IMO it’s a slam dunk penalty, but everyone’s aware of the PR nightmare of actually making the decision.
Comments
England ruing the drop and India ruing their poor start in run terms.
It’s an interesting contest specifically because it’s not a two way fight. We could easily see four or five candidates staying in deep into the contest.
If F1 has a questionable decision alter the winner in Canada, a very boring race in France, and a classic in Austria with the winner again changed by stewards after the race has finished a lot of people are going to be hacked off.
So it’s still looking ominous.
In June 2010 Rafa Benitez was forced out of Liverpool by awful owners.
Within four months they had been ousted and lost £144 million.
It can get better very quickly.
Hopefully without the Roy Hodgson interlude.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/06/austria-post-race-analysis-2019.html
Assume Boris is intransigent and refuses; Parliament has to recourse to a VoNC. Assume that passes. When is the last safe date?
Work back from 31st October (a Thursday). An election on that date is too late, unless the PM has already requested an extension.
So the last safe date for an election is 24th October. With 25 working days required, that makes the calling of the election either the 18th or 19th of September (depending on whether the 25 working days includes the day that the election is called or not. At least there are no Bank Holidays to confuse matters)
If the election is called by the expiry of the two week clock after a VoNC, that means the VoNC has to be no later than the 4th or 5th of September. Possibly the 3rd, depending on whether the day of the VoNC is included in those two weeks. (Unless, of course, Parliament selects and votes confidence in an alternative PM. Which gives the question: will everyone, including the expected rebel Tories, LDs, Independents, SNP, etc, unite behind Corbyn? I have considerable doubts there. And if not, will Corbyn and the Corbynites (great name for a band; are they at Glastonbury this year?) willingly accept another candidate? After all, he is the Leader of the Opposition. If so, who would unite the House?)
So - unless Boris voluntarily blinks, and unless the House unites behind someone (which I find hard to see, but it could just be me), whatever ultimatum or manouevres Parliament attempt must be completed in time for a VoNC by 3rd September (to be safe) or 5th September (getting everyone scouring the lines of the legislation).
The House rises for summer recess on July 25th and returns on 3rd September, right? The accepted accession of The Boris is July 23rd. That's two to four working days.
Boris doesn't need to prorogue Parliament. Just string them along for a couple of working days; job done. Or am I missing something really obvious?
Not affecting me, but will no doubt annoy a few people (who will be reminded to look more closely next time at the terms of the market).
....Wood back for two instantaneous boundaries.
But he needs to shake himself up a bit. He lacked energy in that debate. Age will become an issue if there is not more spark. The line “My time is up. I’m sorry” was an obvious gaffe.
Given they will in the backstop be following laws they have no say in they must have a unilateral right to exit that or there is no ongoing principle of consent.
I think it is much more likely that the EU will give us a four year extension.
"You've got your MEPS, you have access to the Single Market, you are paying your contributions. We have much more important issues to sort out than Brexit. Come back to us when you have decided what you want with a majority in parliament and don't waste our time. You know our red lines."
Groundhog Day.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7197957/Brexit-Party-unveils-ONE-candidates-stand-general-election.html
They might if it becomes clear Boris will stand aside in their seats to let Farage have a clear run if we need an early GE.
Is this the way out of the mess?
That's why Labour can't go full on remain their best option is a second referendum
https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1145368393245216769
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/cricket/market/1.159360293
It is halve you halfwits.
https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1145352111372283906
Unlikely that Johnson will step aside for Farage so Farage will split the Brexit vote making it easier for Northern Labour MPs.
Even if Johnson did step aside for Farage, many non ideological Tories wouldn't vote for Farage and the anti Farage voters would vote tactically to keep him out.
I don't think any Labour MPs would break the Labour whip on a VONC on this basis. They'd be thrown out of the party if they did.
https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1142752376195076098
https://twitter.com/isabeloakeshott/status/1145360655333187590?s=21
(I would also suggest that we have the backstop for GB as well, but that we can leave unilaterally). It's quite a good segue to an FTA.
I imagine the Conservatives will only be too happy to give TBP a run at East Ham where Stephen Timms clings on by his fingertips (or just under 40,000 if you prefer). Will Farage want to contest every seat - I can't see him putting up a candidate against the ERG members for example - or is he serious about some form of pact with the Conservatives?
As far as a VoNC is concerned, I think this is being overstated. Boris Johnson (assuming it is he) knows the only way to move things forward (and I note the growing concensus on here we cannot go on as we are. Whether we leave on 31/10 or not, what we cannot have is another 12-18 months of inertia) that he can sell to his side is a GE on a commitment to leave on 31/10 either with a WA or not.
That of course leaves him open to attack from Farage on one flank who will argue the WA is a mistake along with the £39 billion and we should just walk out the door but that's something Boris is going to have to prepare for while he holds his own party together with a commitment to leave with the WA if it can be voted through with a new Conservative majority.
On the assumption Corbyn's Labour wants a GE (and that might cause a split in itself within Labour) it will happen - my guess the vote in early September leads to a GE on October 10th or 17th.
This game screams bent. The ridiculous slow start and end.
hardly requires a steward's inquiry
(Cue ten wides and six boundaries...)
Edit: but then they go and get a dozen from the last over, for 306. Double bluff?
https://thebrexitparty.org/invitation-to-apply-to-be-a-candidate-for-parliament/
Once these people have paid up and beenselected, they aren’t going away in a hurry.
I suspect the conversation is something like this:
"To be consistent we have to give a penalty."
"Everyone will hate that decision."
"Yes."
"...."
Edited extra bit: I know some do think it's a penalty, but the weight of opinion appears to be in Verstappen's favour.
The one thing this leadership campaign has done is create statements which make both candidates hostage of fortune..
IMO it’s a slam dunk penalty, but everyone’s aware of the PR nightmare of actually making the decision.
Edit: Great minds, Mr Dancer...