Having watched mcclusky on Marr I couldn’t work out under what conditions he would have remain on any confirmatory vote.
I heard him say that if it was no deal, his union would support remain on any confirmatory vote.He said he personally voted remain. Regarding Corbyn he backed the civil service and did not believe the journalist regarding his health. Charles on this site put out some differing rumours a few weeks back.
A free trade agreement (FTA) offers scope for liberalisation in services.
So what format will Boris's FTA take? What sectors will be included and what wont? Who will lose out?
It will be at least a Canada style FTA, maybe more
Just to move the debate on, would you be able to summarise what you mean by a "Canada style FTA" for us, in a couple of paragraphs? And what does the "more" of "maybemore" consist of? ta.
Out of the EU, out of the Single Market and Customs Union, able to control our own borders and make our own trade deals but with largely tariff free trade in goods with the EU and ideally enhanced access for services too
We have a goods trade deficit of 135 billion. We have a services trade surplus of 92 billion.
Your/Boris's policy is "ideally enhanced access for services" ??
A Canada style FTA is good for GB manufacturing and will actually help our economy become less London centric and boost the Midlands and North exactly as most Leave voters wanted but London will still remain the financial capital of Europe
Why do you think the Midlands and the North should be one gigantic factory? The service economy is also booming in the North.
In the long term manufacturing in the UK is dead, get a grip.
I say this as someone who currently works for a British manufacturer on Tyneside.
You are completely wrong
Manufacturing where labour cost is important or where low costs requires compromise on environmental standards is probably not viable
But there is absolutely space for high value added specialist manufacturing
Would you agree that high tech manufacturing, as opposed to low tech metal bashing, is particularly dependent on international supply chains, particularly those within the single market?
Current supply chains are optimised for the current environment. That doesn’t mean they have to be structured like that
On the basis of that Ridge interview Johnson has no meaningful strategy beyond unicorns and when it all goes pear-shaped he will take no responsibility whatsoever. A complete charlatan who will soon be deservedly exposed for the fraud he is.
It hasn't worked that way with Trump and it won't for Johnson.
Trump is working within a completely different system that shields him despite the large majority of Americans opposing him. The dynamics are different in the UK.
I don't think that they are. Johnson's back-story supports me too, from Darius Guppy, the zip wire, through the garden bridge to Carrie-gate. The chaotic personal life, the profligate Mayor, the dangerously incompetent Foreign Secretary.
Any one of these issues should sink a career, but Johnson gets a free pass. 'Boris will be Boris'!
This is the first time he has come under sustained and critical scrutiny. Trump can win despite being hugely unpopular. I doubt Johnson can because the UK system is very different. And Johnson is entirely dependent on Farage, so cannot pivot.
No, the UK system is exactly the same as the US system ie FPTP.
Boris could win even while losing the popular vote given 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave
Nope, there is no scope for tactical voting in the US system. Johnson is totally dependent on Farage.
What an absolutely ridiculous point. Hillary got 48% of the vote in 2016, far more than Labour or the LDs have ever got but Trump still won
I'm sorry you don't understand the point I'm making. Though I'm not surprised.
You clearly do not understand 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave even if only 52% of voters did
Free trade agreements can achieve significant liberalisation in services trade…
Similarly, concluding a set of ‘Swiss-style’ bilateral agreements with the EU offers the potential for greater access to the EU services market, but this option sectors.
So what format will Boris's FTA take? What sectors will be included and what wont? Who will lose out?
It will be at least a Canada style FTA, maybe more
Just to move the debate on, would you be able to summarise what you mean by a "Canada style FTA" for us, in a couple of paragraphs? And what does the "more" of "maybemore" consist of? ta.
Out of the EU, out of the Single Market and Customs Union, able to control our own borders and make our own trade deals and no more annual financial contributions to the EU but with largely tariff free trade in goods with the EU and ideally enhanced access for services too
IE what was debated during the Brexit referendum.
Exactly, diehard Remainers are terrified of Boris and a Canada style FTA for GB with the EU as it would actually deliver what Leave voters voted for and would negate their whinging about Brexit armageddon
No. What we are scared of is people who know nothing about free trade more of a threat than Canada to the EU so they will undoubtedly cross a lot of those “red lines”.
Furthermore our negotiations will be led by a man whose track record in such matters involves buying crowd-control vehicles from the Germans without checking whether they could be used on London’s streets and reselling them at a loss of £300,000. That’s not to mention the useless bridge.
Even Barnier has offered a Canada style FTA for GB, you are wholly negative about a Canada style Deal as ideologically you are biased and do not want a proper Brexit to be delivered
A Canada style deal is better for GB than a No Deal. It is much worse for the UK than our current deal. It is also only something you can believe is achievable if you believe Boris Johnson is a liar.
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, Farage opposes the Withdrawal Agreement outright, Boris is not a liar, he said No Deal was 'a million to one shot' last week as he has already demonstrated he backs a Deal
On the basis of that Ridge interview Johnson has no meaningful strategy beyond unicorns and when it all goes pear-shaped he will take no responsibility whatsoever. A complete charlatan who will soon be deservedly exposed for the fraud he is.
It hasn't worked that way with Trump and it won't for Johnson.
Trump is working within a completely different system that shields him despite the large majority of Americans opposing him. The dynamics are different in the UK.
I don't think that they are. Johnson's back-story supports me too, from Darius Guppy, the zip wire, through the garden bridge to Carrie-gate. The chaotic personal life, the profligate Mayor, the dangerously incompetent Foreign Secretary.
Any one of these issues should sink a career, but Johnson gets a free pass. 'Boris will be Boris'!
This is the first time he has come under sustained and critical scrutiny. Trump can win despite being hugely unpopular. I doubt Johnson can because the UK system is very different. And Johnson is entirely dependent on Farage, so cannot pivot.
No, the UK system is exactly the same as the US system ie FPTP.
Boris could win even while losing the popular vote given 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave
Nope, there is no scope for tactical voting in the US system. Johnson is totally dependent on Farage.
What an absolutely ridiculous point. Hillary got 48% of the vote in 2016, far more than Labour or the LDs have ever got but Trump still won
I'm sorry you don't understand the point I'm making. Though I'm not surprised.
You clearly do not understand 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave even if only 52% of voters did
Take away those no longer with us, those who don't bother voting in normal elections and those who have gone off the idea after three years of chaos, and that statistic is meaningless
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
If you cannot see that Brexit is an ideological big idea, you are blind. It has exposed the weaknesses of our politics, driven your party mad and it had damaged the country for years to come. And above all it will do nothing to lessen the impact of globalisation.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
This all strikes me as so much irrelevant navel-gazing and self-flagellation. It's time to face up to the reality of our place in the world in the 21st century or you'll end up dragging the whole country down in a misguided attempt to atone for the sins of your class. It should be clear by now that Brexit will not help the people in whose name you claim to support it.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
As far as I'm concerned the European Commission is "our politicians". I'd rather be represented in trade negotiations by Cecilia Malmström than Liam Fox.
I never voted for her or the alternative candidate for the position
You believe there is a European demos. I disagree.
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
If you cannot see that Brexit is an ideological big idea, you are blind. It has exposed the weaknesses of our politics, driven your party mad and it had damaged the country for years to come. And above all it will do nothing to lessen the impact of globalisation.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
This all strikes me as so much irrelevant navel-gazing and self-flagellation. It's time to face up to the reality of our place in the world in the 21st century or you'll end up dragging the whole country down in a misguided attempt to atone for the sins of your class. It should be clear by now that Brexit will not help the people in whose name you claim to support it.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
That’s total crap. With that kind of right wing politics there’s always someone new to blame. London and liberalism are the latest on this very thread.
Won’t work - Westminster can tell London what to do. (I suppose you could argue “the bond markets” but I doubt that will shift votes)
A free trade agreement (FTA) offers scope for liberalisation in services.
So what format will Boris's FTA take? What sectors will be included and what wont? Who will lose out?
It will be at least a Canada style FTA, maybe more
Just to move the debate on, would you be able to summarise what you mean by a "Canada style FTA" for us, in a couple of paragraphs? And what does the "more" of "maybemore" consist of? ta.
Out of the EU, out of the Single Market and Customs Union, able to control our own borders and make our own trade deals but with largely tariff free trade in goods with the EU and ideally enhanced access for services too
We have a goods trade deficit of 135 billion. We have a services trade surplus of 92 billion.
Your/Boris's policy is "ideally enhanced access for services" ??
A Canada style FTA is good for GB manufacturing and will actually help our economy become less London centric and boost the Midlands and North exactly as most Leave voters wanted but London will still remain the financial capital of Europe
Why do you think the Midlands and the North should be one gigantic factory? The service economy is also booming in the North.
In the long term manufacturing in the UK is dead, get a grip.
I say this as someone who currently works for a British manufacturer on Tyneside.
You are completely wrong
Manufacturing where labour cost is important or where low costs requires compromise on environmental standards is probably not viable
But there is absolutely space for high value added specialist manufacturing
Would you agree that high tech manufacturing, as opposed to low tech metal bashing, is particularly dependent on international supply chains, particularly those within the single market?
Current supply chains are optimised for the current environment. That doesn’t mean they have to be structured like that
They do not *have* to be. But they are because it is the cheapest and most efficient way for them to operate with the UK being part of the single market and inside the customs union. When we are outside of both, what incentive do large-scale, high-end manufacturers have to rework supply chains to serve a much smaller market rather than just close them down? And how much will it cost smaller-scale manufacturers, who have no choice, to reconfigure?
On the basis of that Ridge interview Johnson has no meaningful strategy beyond unicorns and when it all goes pear-shaped he will take no responsibility whatsoever. A complete charlatan who will soon be deservedly exposed for the fraud he is.
It hasn't worked that way with Trump and it won't for Johnson.
Trump is working within a completely different system that shields him despite the large majority of Americans opposing him. The dynamics are different in the UK.
I don't think that they are. Johnson's back-story supports me too, from Darius Guppy, the zip wire, through the garden bridge to Carrie-gate. The chaotic personal life, the profligate Mayor, the dangerously incompetent Foreign Secretary.
Any one of these issues should sink a career, but Johnson gets a free pass. 'Boris will be Boris'!
This is the first time he has come under sustained and critical scrutiny. Trump can win despite being hugely unpopular. I doubt Johnson can because the UK system is very different. And Johnson is entirely dependent on Farage, so cannot pivot.
No, the UK system is exactly the same as the US system ie FPTP.
Boris could win even while losing the popular vote given 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave
Nope, there is no scope for tactical voting in the US system. Johnson is totally dependent on Farage.
What an absolutely ridiculous point. Hillary got 48% of the vote in 2016, far more than Labour or the LDs have ever got but Trump still won
I'm sorry you don't understand the point I'm making. Though I'm not surprised.
You clearly do not understand 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave even if only 52% of voters did
I think the point re tactical voting was in relation to the US has little opportunity for it as it is rare to have a significant third party.
Maybe its me, but I don't find Trump meeting Kim much these days.
It seems to me that neither side really do anything different. Trump meets Kim and then gets to say, "Look how great I'm doing on the foreign policy side of things." Kim gets to meet a US President as his equal and boost his internal and external standing.
But does anything actually get achieved? It seems to me not.
Free trade agreements can achieve significant liberalisation in services trade…
Similarly, concluding a set of ‘Swiss-style’ bilateral agreements with the EU offers the potential for greater access to the EU services market, but this option sectors.
So what format will Boris's FTA take? What sectors will be included and what wont? Who will lose out?
It will be at least a Canada style FTA, maybe more
Just to move the debate on, would you be able to summarise what you mean by a "Canada style FTA" for us, in a couple of paragraphs? And what does the "more" of "maybemore" consist of? ta.
Out of the EU, out of the Single Market and Customs Union, able to control our own borders and make our own trade deals and no more annual financial contributions to the EU but with largely tariff free trade in goods with the EU and ideally enhanced access for services too
IE what was debated during the Brexit referendum.
Exactly, diehard Remainers are terrified of Boris and a Canada style FTA for GB with the EU as it would actually deliver what Leave voters voted for and would negate their whinging about Brexit armageddon
No. What we are scared of is people who know nothing about free trade more of a threat than Canada to the EU so they will undoubtedly cross a lot of those “red lines”.
Furthermore our negotiations will be led by a man whose track record in such matters involves buying crowd-control vehicles from the Germans without checking whether they could be used on London’s streets and reselling them at a loss of £300,000. That’s not to mention the useless bridge.
Even Barnier has offered a Canada style FTA for GB, you are wholly negative about a Canada style Deal as ideologically you are biased and do not want a proper Brexit to be delivered
A Canada style deal is better for GB than a No Deal. It is much worse for the UK than our current deal. It is also only something you can believe is achievable if you believe Boris Johnson is a liar.
Boris voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, Farage opposes the Withdrawal Agreement outright, Boris is not a liar, he said No Deal was 'a million to one shot' last week as he has already demonstrated he backs a Deal
I love the idea that Johnson saying No Deal is a million to one shot demonstrates he is not a liar
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
If you cannot see that Brexit is an ideological big idea, you are blind. It has exposed the weaknesses of our politics, driven your party mad and it had damaged the country for years to come. And above all it will do nothing to lessen the impact of globalisation.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
This all strikes me as so much irrelevant navel-gazing and self-flagellation. It's time to face up to the reality of our place in the world in the 21st century or you'll end up dragging the whole country down in a misguided attempt to atone for the sins of your class. It should be clear by now that Brexit will not help the people in whose name you claim to support it.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
That’s total crap. With that kind of right wing politics there’s always someone new to blame. London and liberalism are the latest on this very thread.
Won’t work - Westminster can tell London what to do. (I suppose you could argue “the bond markets” but I doubt that will shift votes)
You think blaming immigrants for problems created by politicians will not work? Seriously?
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
If you cannot see that Brexit is an ideological big idea, you are blind. It has exposed the weaknesses of our politics, driven your party mad and it had damaged the country for years to come. And above all it will do nothing to lessen the impact of globalisation.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
This all strikes me as so much irrelevant navel-gazing and self-flagellation. It's time to face up to the reality of our place in the world in the 21st century or you'll end up dragging the whole country down in a misguided attempt to atone for the sins of your class. It should be clear by now that Brexit will not help the people in whose name you claim to support it.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
As far as I'm concerned the European Commission is "our politicians". I'd rather be represented in trade negotiations by Cecilia Malmström than Liam Fox.
I never voted for her or the alternative candidate for the position
You believe there is a European demos. I disagree.
I embrace the reality of a European polity. You deny that reality.
A free trade agreement (FTA) offers scope for liberalisation in services.
So what format will Boris's FTA take? What sectors will be included and what wont? Who will lose out?
It will be at least a Canada style FTA, maybe more
Just to move the debate on, would you be able to summarise what you mean by a "Canada style FTA" for us, in a couple of paragraphs? And what does the "more" of "maybemore" consist of? ta.
Out of the EU, out of the Single Market and Customs Union, able to control our own borders and make our own trade deals but with largely tariff free trade in goods with the EU and ideally enhanced access for services too
We have a goods trade deficit of 135 billion. We have a services trade surplus of 92 billion.
Your/Boris's policy is "ideally enhanced access for services" ??
A Canada style FTA is good for GB manufacturing and will actually help our economy become less London centric and boost the Midlands and North exactly as most Leave voters wanted but London will still remain the financial capital of Europe
Why do you think the Midlands and the North should be one gigantic factory? The service economy is also booming in the North.
In the long term manufacturing in the UK is dead, get a grip.
I say this as someone who currently works for a British manufacturer on Tyneside.
You are completely wrong
Manufacturing where labour cost is important or where low costs requires compromise on environmental standards is probably not viable
But there is absolutely space for high value added specialist manufacturing
Would you agree that high tech manufacturing, as opposed to low tech metal bashing, is particularly dependent on international supply chains, particularly those within the single market?
Current supply chains are optimised for the current environment. That doesn’t mean they have to be structured like that
Of course. They've taken a while to set up though, and re-jigging is going to take a while.
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
If you cannot see that Brexit is an ideological big idea, you are blind. It has exposed the weaknesses of our politics, driven your party mad and it had damaged the country for years to come. And above all it will do nothing to lessen the impact of globalisation.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
This all strikes me as so much irrelevant navel-gazing and self-flagellation. It's time to face up to the reality of our place in the world in the 21st century or you'll end up dragging the whole country down in a misguided attempt to atone for the sins of your class. It should be clear by now that Brexit will not help the people in whose name you claim to support it.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
That’s total crap. With that kind of right wing politics there’s always someone new to blame. London and liberalism are the latest on this very thread.
Won’t work - Westminster can tell London what to do. (I suppose you could argue “the bond markets” but I doubt that will shift votes)
Off course it won’t work. None of this Brexit stuff will work. But there will always be someone to blame. The whole characteristic of Brexit is a departure from reality.
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
If you cannot see that Brexit is an ideological big idea, you are blind. It has exposed the weaknesses of our politics, driven your party mad and it had damaged the country for years to come. And above all it will do nothing to lessen the impact of globalisation.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
This all strikes me as so much irrelevant navel-gazing and self-flagellation. It's time to face up to the reality of our place in the world in the 21st century or you'll end up dragging the whole country down in a misguided attempt to atone for the sins of your class. It should be clear by now that Brexit will not help the people in whose name you claim to support it.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
How are out politicians restricted in fixing the problems?
For example unlimited immigration from the EU. To focus on 3 impacts:
(1) increased utilisation of capacity limited public services. Difficult to address, especially in the cities where physical space is limited and drains resources from other uses
(2) limitation of opportunities for less skilled British citizens - we’ve seen highly qualified Eastern or Southern Europeans taking jobs below their capability levels because of lack of opportunities at home. This limits opportunities for the Brits who would have historically filled those roles. You can fix this for the future through education reform but it doesn’t help the current generation
(3) interplay with welfare system. I believe that our welfare system is something we can be proud of. But the requirement to extend it to all EU citizens who move to the U.K. makes it unaffordable. In any event it is politically very difficult to reform
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
OK.
So leaving is (at best) a great big bucket of pointless unless we implement some very significant changes that would have been verboten as EU members.
This is a point I have made repeatedly.
And when I press Leavers on what those changes might be (other than on immigration) answer comes there none.
Corbyn style socialism would count, of course, but there seems to be little appetite for this in Leaver circles.
Also @HYUFD I am not a diehard Remainer. I would happily leave the EU with an EFTA/EEA arrangement including free movement of people.
Current definitions
Diehard remainer = Rules out remaining and revoke, votes to leave the EU Soft remainer = Keen to leave and would leave with no deal but not if close to deal Soft leaver = Wants a no deal but would talk to EU afterwards Proper leaver = Votes against leaving the EU
One interesting thing on the Labour side is the effect the Lib Dems' revival has. If they continue to poll around and possibly above Labour, and cast themselves as a welcoming home for progressive left-wingers horrified at Corbyn, then they could well provide the life raft some MPs didn't see in TIG. Especially if they've got a constituency that's now under threat.
We're not at that point yet, but if the Lib Dems get a poll boost from Swinson, say, and Corbyn continues to refuse to change course on Brexit and internal matters, including antisemitism, dragging them down further, some may judge it's not just their consciences that will be saved by leaving.
More likely to get a slump from Swinson, look forward to her being tossed out at next election.
Ideologically I’M biased? Well, insofar as I have a political opinion based on my observation of the world in my personal and professional life, yes. As, clearly, are you given your hyper partisanship about Boris in the face of much contradictory evidence you choose to ignore or disregard as “biased”. Everyone on this board is biased to a viewpoint. I’m not sure where stating the obvious gets you.
Barnier made positive noises about such a deal I admit. But he doesn’t make the decisions. Indeed he won’t even necessarily be even eading the next set of negotiations as the EU has disbanded his team. The Canada deal was nearly derailed by Wallonia FFS. Given the passions exited by Brexit, inflamed by Boris’ lack of diplomacy (“turds”, “picaninies”) why do you assume that this one will sail through 27 member states and their subdivisions? I’ve given you reasons why IMHO it won’t and, whatever my personal views, you have not chosen to rebut them. For the record I said the same thing about DD and VW riding to the rescue. I was right - although everyone with an ounce of sense said the same thing so I’m hardly Nostradamus.
BTW what is a “proper” Brexit. Who is the arbiter of the same?
One point Alastair might have added to his excellent header is that never have conditions have been more propitious for those taking the plunge and jumping ship.
It is true that the two party system makes the prospect daunting for any MP wishing to preserve his career, but it is also true that there is a quite strong prospect of a third party holding the balance of power. Which would be reinforced by further defections.
The LibDem dream of a fairer electoral system might just be within their reach.
Alastair’s if not now, then when question is a good one both morally and tactically.
Hunt says Fuck Business. Johnson believes in the Magic Money Tree. They do not seem to have worked out just what a gift this is to the Labour party. And the Labour party has yet to work out that to exploit such a gift it needs a new leader.
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
If you cannot see that Brexit is an ideological big idea, you are blind. It has exposed the weaknesses of our politics, driven your party mad and it had damaged the country for years to come. And above all it will do nothing to lessen the impact of globalisation.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
This all strikes me as so much irrelevant navel-gazing and self-flagellation. It's time to face up to the reality of our place in the world in the 21st century or you'll end up dragging the whole country down in a misguided attempt to atone for the sins of your class. It should be clear by now that Brexit will not help the people in whose name you claim to support it.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
As far as I'm concerned the European Commission is "our politicians". I'd rather be represented in trade negotiations by Cecilia Malmström than Liam Fox.
I never voted for her or the alternative candidate for the position
You believe there is a European demos. I disagree.
If part of the £39bn relates to contributions in lieu of the budget for the transition, and on paper the transition is now shorter (because we haven't started yet) - does that reduce our technical withdrawal payment (only to increase our current contributions)?
Clearly it is all a wash but might there be some optics in it?
Ideologically I’M biased? Well, insofar as I have a political opinion based on my observation of the world in my personal and professional life, yes. As, clearly, are you given your hyper partisanship about Boris in the face of much contradictory evidence you choose to ignore or disregard as “biased”. Everyone on this board is biased to a viewpoint. I’m not sure where stating the obvious gets you.
Barnier made positive noises about such a deal I admit. But he doesn’t make the decisions. Indeed he won’t even necessarily be even eading the next set of negotiations as the EU has disbanded his team. The Canada deal was nearly derailed by Wallonia FFS. Given the passions exited by Brexit, inflamed by Boris’ lack of diplomacy (“turds”, “picaninies”) why do you assume that this one will sail through 27 member states and their subdivisions? I’ve given you reasons why IMHO it won’t and, whatever my personal views, you have not chosen to rebut them. For the record I said the same thing about DD and VW riding to the rescue. I was right - although everyone with an ounce of sense said the same thing so I’m hardly Nostradamus.
BTW what is a “proper” Brexit. Who is the arbiter of the same?
The Tories have been manoeuvred into a place where Nigel Farage is the arbiter of what constitutes a proper Brexit.
Maybe its me, but I don't find Trump meeting Kim much these days.
It seems to me that neither side really do anything different. Trump meets Kim and then gets to say, "Look how great I'm doing on the foreign policy side of things." Kim gets to meet a US President as his equal and boost his internal and external standing.
But does anything actually get achieved? It seems to me not.
Certainly not just you. The only people who take it at all seriously are the brainwashed millions of the two respective camps - the population of North Korea and the Trump 'base' in America.
Out of the EU, out of the Single Market and Customs Union, able to control our own borders and make our own trade deals but with largely tariff free trade in goods with the EU and ideally enhanced access for services too
We have a goods trade deficit of 135 billion. We have a services trade surplus of 92 billion.
Your/Boris's policy is "ideally enhanced access for services" ??
A Canada style FTA is good for GB manufacturing and will actually help our economy become less London centric and boost the Midlands and North exactly as most Leave voters wanted but London will still remain the financial capital of Europe
Why do you think the Midlands and the North should be one gigantic factory? The service economy is also booming in the North.
In the long term manufacturing in the UK is dead, get a grip.
I say this as someone who currently works for a British manufacturer on Tyneside.
You are completely wrong
Manufacturing where labour cost is important or where low costs requires compromise on environmental standards is probably not viable
But there is absolutely space for high value added specialist manufacturing
Would you agree that high tech manufacturing, as opposed to low tech metal bashing, is particularly dependent on international supply chains, particularly those within the single market?
Current supply chains are optimised for the current environment. That doesn’t mean they have to be structured like that
They do not *have* to be. But they are because it is the cheapest and most efficient way for them to operate with the UK being part of the single market and inside the customs union. When we are outside of both, what incentive do large-scale, high-end manufacturers have to rework supply chains to serve a much smaller market rather than just close them down? And how much will it cost smaller-scale manufacturers, who have no choice, to reconfigure?
Depends where the IP and skills base are. For high end manufacturing you are not talking high volumes so supply chains can be managed (more working capital) or reengineered.
In most cases that will be better than relocating (especially as most specialist engineering is SME based)
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
If you cannot see that Brexit is an ideological big idea, you are blind. It has exposed the weaknesses of our politics, driven your party mad and it had damaged the country for years to come. And above all it will do nothing to lessen the impact of globalisation.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
How are out politicians restricted in fixing the problems?
For example unlimited immigration from the EU. To focus on 3 impacts:
(1) increased utilisation of capacity limited public services. Difficult to address, especially in the cities where physical space is limited and drains resources from other uses
(2) limitation of opportunities for less skilled British citizens - we’ve seen highly qualified Eastern or Southern Europeans taking jobs below their capability levels because of lack of opportunities at home. This limits opportunities for the Brits who would have historically filled those roles. You can fix this for the future through education reform but it doesn’t help the current generation
(3) interplay with welfare system. I believe that our welfare system is something we can be proud of. But the requirement to extend it to all EU citizens who move to the U.K. makes it unaffordable. In any event it is politically very difficult to reform
Our inability to control some of the free movement issues is our own politicians fault, no adequate boarder recording, no implementation of the numerous rules around length of stay without means of support and failure to use the increased tax revenues delivered by the enlarging work force in schools and other services are just a few of the things that could be done.
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
If you cannot see that Brexit is an ideological big idea, you are blind. It has exposed the weaknesses of our politics, driven your party mad and it had damaged the country for years to come. And above all it will do nothing to lessen the impact of globalisation.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
This all strikes me as so much irrelevant navel-gazing and self-flagellation. It's time to face up to the reality of our place in the world in the 21st century or you'll end up dragging the whole country down in a misguided attempt to atone for the sins of your class. It should be clear by now that Brexit will not help the people in whose name you claim to support it.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
That’s total crap. With that kind of right wing politics there’s always someone new to blame. London and liberalism are the latest on this very thread.
Won’t work - Westminster can tell London what to do. (I suppose you could argue “the bond markets” but I doubt that will shift votes)
You think blaming immigrants for problems created by politicians will not work? Seriously?
And then they will be asked why they haven’t restricted it
Hunt says Fuck Business. Johnson believes in the Magic Money Tree. They do not seem to have worked out just what a gift this is to the Labour party. And the Labour party has yet to work out that to exploit such a gift it needs a new leader.
If Johnson was planning to borrow to invest in infrastructure that would be one thing. Bond rates are excellent for long term borrowing at moment. UK 50 year gilts at about 1.3%. Surely decent infrastructure projects would beat that as a return with increased productivity and knock on effects?
Borrowing for tax cuts and trying to out Ireland on corporation taxes is a different kettle of fish.
On the basis of that Ridge interview Johnson has no meaningful strategy beyond unicorns and when it all goes pear-shaped he will take no responsibility whatsoever. A complete charlatan who will soon be deservedly exposed for the fraud he is.
It hasn't worked that way with Trump and it won't for Johnson.
Trump is working within a completely different system that shields him despite the large majority of Americans opposing him. The dynamics are different in the UK.
I don't think that they are. Johnson's back-story supports me too, from Darius Guppy, the zip wire, through the garden bridge to Carrie-gate. The chaotic personal life, the profligate Mayor, the dangerously incompetent Foreign Secretary.
Any one of these issues should sink a career, but Johnson gets a free pass. 'Boris will be Boris'!
This is the first time he has come under sustained and critical scrutiny. Trump can win despite being hugely unpopular. I doubt Johnson can because the UK system is very different. And Johnson is entirely dependent on Farage, so cannot pivot.
Still not convinced, and isn't Johnson even more protected by the machinery of the Conservative Party in a similar way to how the GOP have shielded Trump.
Johnson is entirely in control of the Conservative party. He has the membership eating out of his hands. The problem is that he has no meaningful control over Conservative party Brexit policy. Nigel Farage controls that.
You may be right with your last sentence. I am with HYUFD in as much as a Brexit/Conservative alliance works for Johnson in FPTP and moderate Con MPs and supporters simply fall into line as HYUFD has. That then brings us full circle to your original point namely; will Johnson be held to account? No he won't.
I should add that all the stars have aligned for Johnson, factional opposition and the leader of the main opposition party being totally underwhelming.
Ideologically I’M biased? Well, insofar as I have a political opinion based on my observation of the world in my personal and professional life, yes. As, clearly, are you given your hyper partisanship about Boris in the face of much contradictory evidence you choose to ignore or disregard as “biased”. Everyone on this board is biased to a viewpoint. I’m not sure where stating the obvious gets you.
Barnier made positive noises about such a deal I admit. But he doesn’t make the decisions. Indeed he won’t even necessarily be even eading the next set of negotiations as the EU has disbanded his team. The Canada deal was nearly derailed by Wallonia FFS. Given the passions exited by Brexit, inflamed by Boris’ lack of diplomacy (“turds”, “picaninies”) why do you assume that this one will sail through 27 member states and their subdivisions? I’ve given you reasons why IMHO it won’t and, whatever my personal views, you have not chosen to rebut them. For the record I said the same thing about DD and VW riding to the rescue. I was right - although everyone with an ounce of sense said the same thing so I’m hardly Nostradamus.
BTW what is a “proper” Brexit. Who is the arbiter of the same?
The Tories have been manoeuvred into a place where Nigel Farage is the arbiter of what constitutes a proper Brexit.
Until Farage proposes Brexit details and someone can "out-Brexit" him. In doomed cultist revolutions even the original deities will eventually be seen as traitors. Gove has already suffered, Boris' time wont be far to come, eventually it will happen to Farage.
A free trade agreement (FTA) offers scope for liberalisation in services.
So what format will Boris's FTA take? What sectors will be included and what wont? Who will lose out?
It will be at least a Canada style FTA, maybe more
Just to move the debate on, would you be able to summarise what you mean by a "Canada style FTA" for us, in a couple of paragraphs? And what does the "more" of "maybemore" consist of? ta.
Out of the EU, out of the Single Market and Customs Union, able to control our own borders and make our own trade deals but with largely tariff free trade in goods with the EU and ideally enhanced access for services too
We have a goods trade deficit of 135 billion. We have a services trade surplus of 92 billion.
Your/Boris's policy is "ideally enhanced access for services" ??
A Canada style FTA is good for GB manufacturing and will actually help our economy become less London centric and boost the Midlands and North exactly as most Leave voters wanted but London will still remain the financial capital of Europe
Why do you think the Midlands and the North should be one gigantic factory? The service economy is also booming in the North.
In the long term manufacturing in the UK is dead, get a grip.
I say this as someone who currently works for a British manufacturer on Tyneside.
You are completely wrong
Manufacturing where labour cost is important or where low costs requires compromise on environmental standards is probably not viable
But there is absolutely space for high value added specialist manufacturing
Would you agree that high tech manufacturing, as opposed to low tech metal bashing, is particularly dependent on international supply chains, particularly those within the single market?
Current supply chains are optimised for the current environment. That doesn’t mean they have to be structured like that
Of course. They've taken a while to set up though, and re-jigging is going to take a while.
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
If globalisation.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
This support it.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
How are out politicians restricted in fixing the problems?
For example unlimited immigration from the EU. To focus on 3 impacts:
(1) increased utilisation of capacity limited public services. Difficult to address, especially in the cities where physical space is limited and drains resources from other uses
(2) limitation of opportunities for less skilled British citizens - we’ve seen highly qualified Eastern or Southern Europeans taking jobs below their capability levels because of lack of opportunities at home. This limits opportunities for the Brits who would have historically filled those roles. You can fix this for the future through education reform but it doesn’t help the current generation
(3) interplay with welfare system. I believe that our welfare system is something we can be proud of. But the requirement to extend it to all EU citizens who move to the U.K. makes it unaffordable. In any event it is politically very difficult to reform
1 - blaming immigrants for government cuts
2 - blaming immigrants for government failures in education
3 - blaming immigrants for government failures to reform the welfare system
We will still have high-levels of immigration post-Brexit and immigrants will still be blamed for all the problems our own choices and our politicians create.
Hunt says Fuck Business. Johnson believes in the Magic Money Tree. They do not seem to have worked out just what a gift this is to the Labour party. And the Labour party has yet to work out that to exploit such a gift it needs a new leader.
If Johnson was planning to borrow to invest in infrastructure that would be one thing. Bond rates are excellent for long term borrowing at moment. UK 50 year gilts at about 1.3%. Surely decent infrastructure projects would beat that as a return with increased productivity and knock on effects?
Borrowing for tax cuts and trying to out Ireland on corporation taxes is a different kettle of fish.
Absolutely - and that argument is the same one we had under Brown. Inflating borrowing for tax cuts is the same bad policy.
The other perceptive insight is the sense of euphoria the tory members must be feeling as they lurch right and tool up for the culture war. For decades the members, who are mainly old, white, fucked-in-the-head men, have seen their opinions on multi-multiculturalism, LGBTQ+ issues, feminism and whether the Rover 800 is a good car swept away by waves of progressive liberalism. Now they are free to dismiss such notions as the deliria of the woke.
So after brexit what is next? Obviously a war on red tape which limits rich people from getting richer by imposing standards. An excuse for dramatically lower personal and corporation tax in the name of stimulating the bank accounts of rich people probably ...and then what?
Your own prejudices are showing through
I’d expect a cut in DfID’s budget (although this can be funded through eliminating the c £1.5bn contribution to the E.U. international development aid, but who cares about double counting)
Probably increased defence spending, reform of business rates (to help small businesses), support for farmers, transport infrastructure investment that sort of thing.
Small town England is instinctively suspicious of “big ideas”
Having watched mcclusky on Marr I couldn’t work out under what conditions he would have remain on any confirmatory vote.
I heard him say that if it was no deal, his union would support remain on any confirmatory vote.He said he personally voted remain. Regarding Corbyn he backed the civil service and did not believe the journalist regarding his health. Charles on this site put out some differing rumours a few weeks back.
The toffs are wetting themselves that Labour will get in
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
If you cannot see that Brexit is an ideological big idea, you are blind. It has exposed the weaknesses of our politics, driven your party mad and it had damaged the country for years to come. And above all it will do nothing to lessen the impact of globalisation.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
This all strikes me as so much irrelevant navel-gazing and self-flagellation. It's time to face up to the reality of our place in the world in the 21st century or you'll end up dragging the whole country down in a misguided attempt to atone for the sins of your class. It should be clear by now that Brexit will not help the people in whose name you claim to support it.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
As far as I'm concerned the European Commission is "our politicians". I'd rather be represented in trade negotiations by Cecilia Malmström than Liam Fox.
I never voted for her or the alternative candidate for the position
You believe there is a European demos. I disagree.
Did you vote for Liam Fox?
I voted for an MP
If a majority of MPs support an individual they become PM
The PM selects his/her government
If I don’t like what Liam Fox does then I vote against the MP who supported him.
It’s indirect but that’s the way the system works here.
If I don’t like what Cecilia Malstrom does how do I change my vote to indicate that?
Out of the EU, out of the Single Market and Customs Union, able to control our own borders and make our own trade deals but with largely tariff free trade in goods with the EU and ideally enhanced access for services too
We have a goods trade deficit of 135 billion. We have a services trade surplus of 92 billion.
Your/Boris's policy is "ideally enhanced access for services" ??
A capital of Europe
Why do you think the Midlands and the North should be one gigantic factory? The service economy is also booming in the North.
In the long term manufacturing in the UK is dead, get a grip.
I say this as someone who currently works for a British manufacturer on Tyneside.
You are completely wrong
Manufacturing where labour cost is important or where low costs requires compromise on environmental standards is probably not viable
But there is absolutely space for high value added specialist manufacturing
Would you agree that high tech manufacturing, as opposed to low tech metal bashing, is particularly dependent on international supply chains, particularly those within the single market?
Current supply chains are optimised for the current environment. That doesn’t mean they have to be structured like that
They reconfigure?
Depends where the IP and skills base are. For high end manufacturing you are not talking high volumes so supply chains can be managed (more working capital) or reengineered.
In most cases that will be better than relocating (especially as most specialist engineering is SME based)
IP is very easily transferable, as are high-end skills. Most specialist engineering in the SME sector is within supply chains and not at the end of them. It is, therefore, very dependent on decisions made elsewhere. The fact is that the UK is about to become a market of 65 million, not an integral part of one of 450 million. That makes it a much less attractive investment.
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
If you cannot see that Brexit is an ideological big idea, you are blind. It has exposed the weaknesses of our politics, driven your party mad and it had damaged the country for years to come. And above all it will do nothing to lessen the impact of globalisation.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
How are out politicians restricted in fixing the problems?
For example unlimited immigration from the EU. To focus on 3 impacts:
(1) increased utilisation of capacity limited public services. Difficult to address, especially in the cities where physical space is limited and drains resources from other uses
(2) limitation of opportunities for less skilled British citizens - we’ve seen highly qualified Eastern or Southern Europeans taking jobs below their capability levels because of lack of opportunities at home. This limits opportunities for the Brits who would have historically filled those roles. You can fix this for the future through education reform but it doesn’t help the current generation
(3) interplay with welfare system. I believe that our welfare system is something we can be proud of. But the requirement to extend it to all EU citizens who move to the U.K. makes it unaffordable. In any event it is politically very difficult to reform
Our inability to control some of the free movement issues is our own politicians fault, no adequate boarder recording, no implementation of the numerous rules around length of stay without means of support and failure to use the increased tax revenues delivered by the enlarging work force in schools and other services are just a few of the things that could be done.
Some but not all.
And it’s too easy for politicians to pass the buck
On the basis of that Ridge interview Johnson has no meaningful strategy beyond unicorns and when it all goes pear-shaped he will take no responsibility whatsoever. A complete charlatan who will soon be deservedly exposed for the fraud he is.
It hasn't worked that way with Trump and it won't for Johnson.
Trump is working within a completely different system that shields him despite the large majority of Americans opposing him. The dynamics are different in the UK.
I don't think that they are. Johnson's back-story supports me too, from Darius Guppy, the zip wire, through the garden bridge to Carrie-gate. The chaotic personal life, the profligate Mayor, the dangerously incompetent Foreign Secretary.
Any one of these issues should sink a career, but Johnson gets a free pass. 'Boris will be Boris'!
This is the first time he has come under sustained and critical scrutiny. Trump can win despite being hugely unpopular. I doubt Johnson can because the UK system is very different. And Johnson is entirely dependent on Farage, so cannot pivot.
Still not convinced, and isn't Johnson even more protected by the machinery of the Conservative Party in a similar way to how the GOP have shielded Trump.
Johnson is entirely in control of the Conservative party. He has the membership eating out of his hands. The problem is that he has no meaningful control over Conservative party Brexit policy. Nigel Farage controls that.
You may be right with your last sentence. I am with HYUFD in as much as a Brexit/Conservative alliance works for Johnson in FPTP and moderate Con MPs and supporters simply fall into line as HYUFD has. That then brings us full circle to your original point namely; will Johnson be held to account? No he won't.
I should add that all the stars have aligned for Johnson, factional opposition and the leader of the main opposition party being totally underwhelming.
Wouldn’t a pact with Farage finish the tories off as a serious political party, a single issue Ltd company with fruit cake candidates?
Maybe its me, but I don't find Trump meeting Kim much these days.
It seems to me that neither side really do anything different. Trump meets Kim and then gets to say, "Look how great I'm doing on the foreign policy side of things." Kim gets to meet a US President as his equal and boost his internal and external standing.
But does anything actually get achieved? It seems to me not.
Certainly not just you. The only people who take it at all seriously are the brainwashed millions of the two respective camps - the population of North Korea and the Trump 'base' in America.
You missed out the brainwashed Brexit sides in England who are much worse
If you cannot see that Brexit is an ideological big idea, you are blind. It has exposed the weaknesses of our politics, driven your party mad and it had damaged the country for years to come. And above all it will do nothing to lessen the impact of globalisation.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
This all strikes me as so much irrelevant navel-gazing and self-flagellation. It's time to face up to the reality of our place in the world in the 21st century or you'll end up dragging the whole country down in a misguided attempt to atone for the sins of your class. It should be clear by now that Brexit will not help the people in whose name you claim to support it.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
As far as I'm concerned the European Commission is "our politicians". I'd rather be represented in trade negotiations by Cecilia Malmström than Liam Fox.
I never voted for her or the alternative candidate for the position
You believe there is a European demos. I disagree.
Did you vote for Liam Fox?
I voted for an MP
If a majority of MPs support an individual they become PM
The PM selects his/her government
If I don’t like what Liam Fox does then I vote against the MP who supported him.
It’s indirect but that’s the way the system works here.
If I don’t like what Cecilia Malstrom does how do I change my vote to indicate that?
You voted for an MEP. In the same way as voting for an MP, voting for an MEP helps select the ultimate make-up of the European Parliament, which in turn has control over the next Commission president, who in turn chooses the Commissioners.
It’s a strikingly similar system. You just have an irrational visceral hostility to the EU which leads you to make such idiotic remarks.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
OK.
So leaving is (at best) a great big bucket of pointless unless we implement some very significant changes that would have been verboten as EU members.
This is a point I have made repeatedly.
And when I press Leavers on what those changes might be (other than on immigration) answer comes there none.
Corbyn style socialism would count, of course, but there seems to be little appetite for this in Leaver circles.
Residency requirement for welfare would be one
Yes , you toffs really hate the poor people getting a few quid that you think should rightfully be in your pockets.
On the basis of that Ridge interview Johnson has no meaningful strategy beyond unicorns and when it all goes pear-shaped he will take no responsibility whatsoever. A complete charlatan who will soon be deservedly exposed for the fraud he is.
It hasn't worked that way with Trump and it won't for Johnson.
Trump is working within a completely different system that shields him despite the large majority of Americans opposing him. The dynamics are different in the UK.
I don't think that they are. Johnson's back-story supports me too, from Darius Guppy, the zip wire, through the garden bridge to Carrie-gate. The chaotic personal life, the profligate Mayor, the dangerously incompetent Foreign Secretary.
Any one of these issues should sink a career, but Johnson gets a free pass. 'Boris will be Boris'!
This is the first time he has come under sustained and critical scrutiny. Trump can win despite being hugely unpopular. I doubt Johnson can because the UK system is very different. And Johnson is entirely dependent on Farage, so cannot pivot.
Still not convinced, and isn't Johnson even more protected by the machinery of the Conservative Party in a similar way to how the GOP have shielded Trump.
Johnson is entirely in control of the Conservative party. He has the membership eating out of his hands. The problem is that he has no meaningful control over Conservative party Brexit policy. Nigel Farage controls that.
You may be right with your last sentence. I am with HYUFD in as much as a Brexit/Conservative alliance works for Johnson in FPTP and moderate Con MPs and supporters simply fall into line as HYUFD has. That then brings us full circle to your original point namely; will Johnson be held to account? No he won't.
I should add that all the stars have aligned for Johnson, factional opposition and the leader of the main opposition party being totally underwhelming.
Wouldn’t a pact with Farage finish the tories off as a serious political party, a single issue Ltd company with fruit cake candidates?
Not really. Once unicorn Brexit has paased, the low tax, small state agendas dovetail nicely and Brexit supporters return home to the Tories.
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
This all strikes me as so much irrelevant navel-gazing and self-flagellation. It's time to face up to the reality of our place in the world in the 21st century or you'll end up dragging the whole country down in a misguided attempt to atone for the sins of your class. It should be clear by now that Brexit will not help the people in whose name you claim to support it.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
As far as I'm concerned the European Commission is "our politicians". I'd rather be represented in trade negotiations by Cecilia Malmström than Liam Fox.
I never voted for her or the alternative candidate for the position
You believe there is a European demos. I disagree.
Did you vote for Liam Fox?
I voted for an MP
If a majority of MPs support an individual they become PM
The PM selects his/her government
If I don’t like what Liam Fox does then I vote against the MP who supported him.
It’s indirect but that’s the way the system works here.
If I don’t like what Cecilia Malstrom does how do I change my vote to indicate that?
If we move to WTO trade how would you change your vote to indicate your preferred arrangements/staffing for WTO trade rules? Should we leave the World Bank as we do not get to directly vote and other countries have a say? If we want to be part of an interconnected world some things need to be delegated, and yes, we do not get to choose everything we like.
Having watched mcclusky on Marr I couldn’t work out under what conditions he would have remain on any confirmatory vote.
I heard him say that if it was no deal, his union would support remain on any confirmatory vote.He said he personally voted remain. Regarding Corbyn he backed the civil service and did not believe the journalist regarding his health. Charles on this site put out some differing rumours a few weeks back.
The toffs are wetting themselves that Labour will get in
What I didn’t hear was that remain should be on the ballot paper for any referendum only one on no deal. Or am I missing something?
Mr. Gate, sorry for the very slow reply, was busy elsewhere.
Freedom of movement would've been necessary for single market access, but not for passporting (I did elsewhere say I might've been ok with single market access, so it's possible this was just a quoting mix up).
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
If globalisation.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
This support it.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
How are out politicians restricted in fixing the problems?
For example unlimited immigration from the EU. To focus on 3 impacts:
(1) increased utilisation of capacity limited public services. Difficult to address, especially in the cities where physical space is limited and drains resources from other uses
(2) limitation of opportunities for less skilled British citizens - we’ve seen highly qualified Eastern or Southern Europeans taking jobs below their capability levels because of lack of opportunities at home. This limits opportunities for the Brits who would have historically filled those roles. You can fix this for the future through education reform but it doesn’t help the current generation
(3) interplay with welfare system. I believe that our welfare system is something we can be proud of. But the requirement to extend it to all EU citizens who move to the U.K. makes it unaffordable. In any event it is politically very difficult to reform
1 - blaming immigrants for government cuts
2 - blaming immigrants for government failures in education
3 - blaming immigrants for government failures to reform the welfare system
We will still have high-levels of immigration post-Brexit and immigrants will still be blamed for all the problems our own choices and our politicians create.
So what you're advocating is control of immigration and forcing UK governments to take responsibility for the failure of UK education and welfare systems.
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
If globalisation.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
This support it.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
How are out politicians restricted in fixing the problems?
For example unlimited immigration from the EU. To focus on 3 impacts:
(1) increased
1 - blaming immigrants for government cuts
2 - blaming immigrants for government failures in education
3 - blaming immigrants for government failures to reform the welfare system
We will still have high-levels of immigration post-Brexit and immigrants will still be blamed for all the problems our own choices and our politicians create.
With the exception of the Fens, the areas that voted Leave are areas of low inward EU migration. They are either places like the Welsh valleys with net population decline or Northern towns where the migrants are nearly all non EU.
The idea that stopping EU migration would improve economic prospects in Ebbw Vale or Wigan is poppycock. The only way it would help would be if those Britons fancied pulling cabbages in the Fens or working in Social Care in the South East, by internally migrating.
The answers lie elsewhere, not least in the form of redistributive regional policies like those of the EU. There seems little enthusiasm for that amongst PB Brexiteers, and in any case it does not require Brexit.
MPs: don't book an expensive holiday for the week after 24th July. You may have to cancel!
It is absolutely ridiculous that they havent been told to cancel holidays already. Any senior private sector workers with a business in crisis and a 3 month deadline, would have all nearly holidays cancelled. Our MPs expect to fill the 3 months with 6 weeks holiday, then to come back for a week, and then get another month for their hobby (party conferences). I simply do not understand how anyone can consider this acceptable.
OK. But that is another 'immigration' issue. And contribution based welfare is possible in the EU. Its biggest member, for example - Germany.
Yes. But (a) I think our non contributory system has great value. A society has an obligation to look after its weakest; and (b) it would be politically very difficult/impossible to reform*
* unless you are in the West Wing and then it can be fixed in a single 45 minute episode
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
Thishe people in whose name you claim to support it.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right.
As far asm Fox.
I never voted for her or the alternative candidate for the position
You believe there is a European demos. I disagree.
Did you vote for Liam Fox?
I voted for an MP
If a majority of MPs support an individual they become PM
The PM selects his/her government
If I don’t like what Liam Fox does then I vote against the MP who supported him.
It’s indirect but that’s the way the system works here.
If I don’t like what Cecilia Malstrom does how do I change my vote to indicate that?
If we move to WTO trade how would you change your vote to indicate your preferred arrangements/staffing for WTO trade rules? Should we leave the World Bank as we do not get to directly vote and other countries have a say? If we want to be part of an interconnected world some things need to be delegated, and yes, we do not get to choose everything we like.
The E.U. is actually quite democratic. We vote for the MEPs and they are supposed to hold the Commission to account. The Commission is also essentially appointed with agreement from Council where we are represented by our own Prime Minister.
It’s a compromise, but quite an elegant one, considering the tension between Union and Nation.
The EU *could* be more democratic, but in making it so we would, ironically, be surrendering more power, because we would enable greater legitimacy, to the Commission.
People who bang out about the so called undemocratic E.U. haven’t really thought much about it.
Out of the EU, out of the Single Market and Customs Union, able to control our own borders and make our own trade deals but with largely tariff free trade in goods with the EU and ideally enhanced access for services too
We have a goods trade deficit of 135 billion. We have a services trade surplus of 92 billion.
Your/Boris's policy is "ideally enhanced access for services" ??
A capital of Europe
Why do you think the Midlands and the North should be one gigantic factory? The service economy is also booming in the North.
In the long term manufacturing in the UK is dead, get a grip.
I say this as someone who currently works for a British manufacturer on Tyneside.
You are completely wrong
Manufacturing where labour cost is important or where low costs requires compromise on environmental standards is probably not viable
But there is absolutely space for high value added specialist manufacturing
Would you agree that high tech manufacturing, as opposed to low tech metal bashing, is particularly dependent on international supply chains, particularly those within the single market?
Current supply chains are optimised for the current environment. That doesn’t mean they have to be structured like that
They reconfigure?
Depends where the IP and skills base are. For high end manufacturing you are not talking high volumes so supply chains can be managed (more working capital) or reengineered.
In most cases that will be better than relocating (especially as most specialist engineering is SME based)
IP is very easily transferable, as are high-end skills. Most specialist engineering in the SME sector is within supply chains and not at the end of them. It is, therefore, very dependent on decisions made elsewhere. The fact is that the UK is about to become a market of 65 million, not an integral part of one of 450 million. That makes it a much less attractive investment.
It also remains the 5th largest economy in the world and an attractive and highly skilled market
Totally agree re the Conservatives' choices-to-come. Aren't your comments re the situation with Labour a case of not comparing like with like, however? Re Labour, you state as a premise that for Labour MPs not to act downgrades the need to oppose racism. That's a dubious premise indeed, seeing as those who support the Labour position would argue that they are opposing racism as regards the actions (and founding) of the state of Israel - whilst harbouring no racist feelings towards Jewish people. At least, I think, you should acknowledge that your moral premise is not 'necesarily so'.
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
If globalisation.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
This support it.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
How are out politicians restricted in fixing the problems?
For example unlimited immigration from the EU. To focus on 3 impacts:
(1) increased
1 - blaming immigrants for government cuts
2 - blaming immigrants for government failures in education
3 - blaming immigrants for government failures to reform the welfare system
We will still have high-levels of immigration post-Brexit and immigrants will still be blamed for all the problems our own choices and our politicians create.
With the exception of the Fens, the areas that voted Leave are areas of low inward EU migration. They are either places like the Welsh valleys with net population decline or Northern towns where the migrants are nearly all non EU.
The idea that stopping EU migration would improve economic prospects in Ebbw Vale or Wigan is poppycock. The only way it would help would be if those Britons fancied pulling cabbages in the Fens or working in Social Care in the South East, by internally migrating.
The answers lie elsewhere, not least in the form of redistributive regional policies like those of the EU. There seems little enthusiasm for that amongst PB Brexiteers, and in any case it does not require Brexit.
So the thousands of Eastern European Roma who have migrated to Rotherham and other parts of South Yorkshire don't exist ?
Now you might be right that restricting immigration might not improve things in Ebbw Vale or Wigan but it might very well stop things from getting worse.
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
If globalisation.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
This support it.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
How are out politicians restricted in fixing the problems?
For example unlimited immigration from the EU. To focus on 3 impacts:
(1) increased from other uses
(2) limitation generation
(3) interplay to reform
1 - blaming immigrants for government cuts
2 - blaming immigrants for government failures in education
3 - blaming immigrants for government failures to reform the welfare system
We will still have high-levels of immigration post-Brexit and immigrants will still be blamed for all the problems our own choices and our politicians create.
So what you're advocating is control of immigration and forcing UK governments to take responsibility for the failure of UK education and welfare systems.
You can add failures of housing policy as well.
Nope - I'm saying that we will always find others to blame for the consequences of decisions we have made ourselves. I think we still need high levels of immigration into the UK and I believe that EU immigration in particular is beneficial as it puts less strain on public services than other kinds, it is often short-term and we get reciprocal rights.
If you cannot see that Brexit is an ideological big idea, you are blind. It has exposed the weaknesses of our politics, driven your party mad and it had damaged the country for years to come. And above all it will do nothing to lessen the impact of globalisation.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
As far as I'm concerned the European Commission is "our politicians". I'd rather be represented in trade negotiations by Cecilia Malmström than Liam Fox.
I never voted for her or the alternative candidate for the position
You believe there is a European demos. I disagree.
Did you vote for Liam Fox?
I voted for an MP
If a majority of MPs support an individual they become PM
The PM selects his/her government
If I don’t like what Liam Fox does then I vote against the MP who supported him.
It’s indirect but that’s the way the system works here.
If I don’t like what Cecilia Malstrom does how do I change my vote to indicate that?
You voted for an MEP. In the same way as voting for an MP, voting for an MEP helps select the ultimate make-up of the European Parliament, which in turn has control over the next Commission president, who in turn chooses the Commissioners.
It’s a strikingly similar system. You just have an irrational visceral hostility to the EU which leads you to make such idiotic remarks.
Except that we do not have pan-European parties with single programmes. I dislike coalitions because people don’t get to make an informed choice.
Incidentally, you claim I have a “visceral hatred of the EU”. I don’t - as it happens I don’t hate anything or anyone as it is an entirely negative emotion - I just don’t think it was the right political structure for the U.K. going forward
So lay off the personal invective. It’s unpleasant and diminishes you.
September election is still 12 on Betfair. I think that’s huge value. October election is in to 4.7, which is probably too short now.
Yes, I think so. I dont think many MPs are looking forward to Conference. In any case even @HYUFD must realise that post a Boris landslide (joke!) some preparation time is needed before the Day of the Dead.
Out of the EU, out of the Single Market and Customs Union, able to control our own borders and make our own trade deals but with largely tariff free trade in goods with the EU and ideally enhanced access for services too
We have a goods trade deficit of 135 billion. We have a services trade surplus of 92 billion.
Your/Boris's policy is "ideally enhanced access for services" ??
A capital of Europe
Why do you think the Midlands and the North should be one gigantic factory? The service economy is also booming in the North.
In the long term manufacturing in the UK is dead, get a grip.
I say this as someone who currently works for a British manufacturer on Tyneside.
You are completely wrong
Manufacturing where labour cost is important or where low costs requires compromise on environmental standards is probably not viable
But there is absolutely space for high value added specialist manufacturing
Would you agree that high tech manufacturing, as opposed to low tech metal bashing, is particularly dependent on international supply chains, particularly those within the single market?
Current supply chains are optimised for the current environment. That doesn’t mean they have to be structured like that
They reconfigure?
Depends where the IP and skills base are. For high end manufacturing you are not talking high volumes so supply chains can be managed (more working capital) or reengineered.
In most cases that will be better than relocating (especially as most specialist engineering is SME based)
IP is very easily transferable, as are high-end skills. Most specialist engineering in the SME sector is within supply chains and not at the end of them. It is, therefore, very dependent on decisions made elsewhere. The fact is that the UK is about to become a market of 65 million, not an integral part of one of 450 million. That makes it a much less attractive investment.
It also remains the 5th largest economy in the world and an attractive and highly skilled market
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
OK.
So leaving is (at best) a great big bucket of pointless unless we implement some very significant changes that would have been verboten as EU members.
This is a point I have made repeatedly.
And when I press Leavers on what those changes might be (other than on immigration) answer comes there none.
Corbyn style socialism would count, of course, but there seems to be little appetite for this in Leaver circles.
Residency requirement for welfare would be one
Yes , you toffs really hate the poor people getting a few quid that you think should rightfully be in your pockets.
Nope. To make the system sustainable it needs to command widespread support. The typically Daily Mail “scrounging immigrant” story (and I know they are 95% bullshit) undermines that support
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
If globalisation.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
This support it.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
How are out politicians restricted in fixing the problems?
For example unlimited immigration from the EU. To focus on 3 impacts:
(1) increased
1 - blaming immigrants for government cuts
2 - blaming immigrants for government failures in education
3 - blaming immigrants for government failures to reform the welfare system
We will still have high-levels of immigration post-Brexit and immigrants will still be blamed for all the problems our own choices and our politicians create.
With the exception of the Fens, the areas that voted Leave are areas of low inward EU migration. They are either places
The answers lie elsewhere, not least in the form of redistributive regional policies like those of the EU. There seems little enthusiasm for that amongst PB Brexiteers, and in any case it does not require Brexit.
So the thousands of Eastern European Roma who have migrated to Rotherham and other parts of South Yorkshire don't exist ?
Now you might be right that restricting immigration might not improve things in Ebbw Vale or Wigan but it might very well stop things from getting worse.
Can you show your working? How is E.U. migration making Wigan “worse”?
You are reaching for pseudo-economic myths to support what was essentially a vote inspired by a fear of “cultural change” and jealousy of a supposed elite of Londoners, European bureaucrats, and foreigners.
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
This all strikes me as so much irrelevant navel-gazing and self-flagellation. It's time to face up to the reality of our place in the world in the 21st century or you'll end up dragging the whole country down in a misguided attempt to atone for the sins of your class. It should be clear by now that Brexit will not help the people in whose name you claim to support it.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
As far as I'm concerned the European Commission is "our politicians". I'd rather be represented in trade negotiations by Cecilia Malmström than Liam Fox.
I never voted for her or the alternative candidate for the position
You believe there is a European demos. I disagree.
Did you vote for Liam Fox?
I voted for an MP
If a majority of MPs support an individual they become PM
The PM selects his/her government
If I don’t like what Liam Fox does then I vote against the MP who supported him.
It’s indirect but that’s the way the system works here.
If I don’t like what Cecilia Malstrom does how do I change my vote to indicate that?
If we move to WTO trade how would you change your vote to indicate your preferred arrangements/staffing for WTO trade rules? Should we leave the World Bank as we do not get to directly vote and other countries have a say? If we want to be part of an interconnected world some things need to be delegated, and yes, we do not get to choose everything we like.
Nope. Neither of those bodies can create law for the U.K. in the way the E.U. can and they both have a fixed mandate.
If you cannot see that Brexit is an ideological big idea, you are blind. It has exposed the weaknesses of our politics, driven your party mad and it had damaged the country for years to come. And above all it will do nothing to lessen the impact of globalisation.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
As far as I'm concerned the European Commission is "our politicians". I'd rather be represented in trade negotiations by Cecilia Malmström than Liam Fox.
I never voted for her or the alternative candidate for the position
You believe there is a European demos. I disagree.
Did you vote for Liam Fox?
I voted for an MP
If a majority of MPs support an individual they become PM
The PM selects his/her government
If I don’t like what Liam Fox does then I vote against the MP who supported him.
It’s indirect but that’s the way the system works here.
If I don’t like what Cecilia Malstrom does how do I change my vote to indicate that?
You voted for an MEP. In the same way as voting for an MP, voting for an MEP helps select the ultimate make-up of the European Parliament, which in turn has control over the next Commission president, who in turn chooses the Commissioners.
It’s a strikingly similar system. You just have an irrational visceral hostility to the EU which leads you to make such idiotic remarks.
Except that we do not have pan-European parties with single programmes. I dislike coalitions because people don’t get to make an informed choice.
Incidentally, you claim I have a “visceral hatred of the EU”. I don’t - as it happens I don’t hate anything or anyone as it is an entirely negative emotion - I just don’t think it was the right political structure for the U.K. going forward
So lay off the personal invective. It’s unpleasant and diminishes you.
It’s not clear whether you would prefer “pan European parties with single programmes”, but there’s nothing in the E.U. setup to prevent that.
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
If globalisation.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
This support it.
People who say “.
How are out politicians restricted in fixing the problems?
For example unlimited immigration from the EU. To focus on 3 impacts:
(1) increased
1 - blaming immigrants for government cuts
2 - blaming immigrants for government failures in education
3 - blaming immigrants for government failures to reform the welfare system
We will still have high-levels of immigration post-Brexit and immigrants will still be blamed for all the problems our own choices and our politicians create.
With the exception of the Fens, the areas that voted Leave are areas of low inward EU migration. They are either places like the Welsh valleys with net population decline or Northern towns where the migrants are nearly all non EU.
The idea that stopping EU migration would improve economic prospects in Ebbw Vale or Wigan is poppycock. The only way it would help would be if those Britons fancied pulling cabbages in the Fens or working in Social Care in the South East, by internally migrating.
The answers lie elsewhere, not least in the form of redistributive regional policies like those of the EU. There seems little enthusiasm for that amongst PB Brexiteers, and in any case it does not require Brexit.
So the thousands of Eastern European Roma who have migrated to Rotherham and other parts of South Yorkshire don't exist ?
Now you might be right that restricting immigration might not improve things in Ebbw Vale or Wigan but it might very well stop things from getting worse.
No but the Roma are numerically small compared with the Non EU migrants.
How will stopping EU migration slow the decline of Ebbw Vale? I do not follow.
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
If globalisation.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
This support it.
People who say “.
How are out politicians restricted in fixing the problems?
For example unlimited immigration from the EU. To focus on 3 impacts:
(1) increased
1 - blaming immigrants for government cuts
2 - blaming immigrants for government failures in education
3 - blaming immigrants for government failures to reform the welfare system
We will still have high-levels of immigration post-Brexit and immigrants will still be blamed for all the problems our own choices and our politicians create.
With the exception of the Fens, the areas that voted Leave are areas of low inward EU migration. They are either places like the Welsh valleys with net population decline or Northern towns where the migrants are nearly all non EU.
The idea that stopping EU migration would improve economic prospects in Ebbw Vale or Wigan is poppycock. The only way it would help would be if those Britons fancied pulling cabbages in the Fens or working in Social Care in the South East, by internally migrating.
The answers lie elsewhere, not least in the form of redistributive regional policies like those of the EU. There seems little enthusiasm for that amongst PB Brexiteers, and in any case it does not require Brexit.
So the thousands of Eastern European Roma who have migrated to Rotherham and other parts of South Yorkshire don't exist ?
Now you might be right that restricting immigration might not improve things in Ebbw Vale or Wigan but it might very well stop things from getting worse.
No but the Roma are numerically small compared with the Non EU migrants.
How will stopping EU migration slow the decline of Ebbw Vale? I do not follow.
The other perceptive insight is the sense of euphoria the tory members must be feeling as they lurch right and tool up for the culture war. For decades the members, who are mainly old, white, fucked-in-the-head men, have seen their opinions on multi-multiculturalism, LGBTQ+ issues, feminism and whether the Rover 800 is a good car swept away by waves of progressive liberalism. Now they are free to dismiss such notions as the deliria of the woke.
So after brexit what is next? Obviously a war on red tape which limits rich people from getting richer by imposing standards. An excuse for dramatically lower personal and corporation tax in the name of stimulating the bank accounts of rich people probably ...and then what?
Your own prejudices are showing through
I’d expect a cut in DfID’s budget (although this can be funded through eliminating the c £1.5bn contribution to the E.U. international development aid, but who cares about double counting)
Probably increased defence spending, reform of business rates (to help small businesses), support for farmers, transport infrastructure investment that sort of thing.
Small town England is instinctively suspicious of “big ideas”
If you cannot see that Brexit is an ideological big idea, you are blind. It has exposed the weaknesses of our politics, driven your party mad and it had damaged the country for years to come. And above all it will do nothing to lessen the impact
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
As far as I'm concerned the European Commission is "our politicians". I'd rather be represented in trade negotiations by Cecilia Malmström than Liam Fox.
I never voted for her or the alternative candidate for the position
You believe there is a European demos. I disagree.
Did you vote for Liam Fox?
I voted for an MP
If a majority of MPs support an individual they become PM
The PM selects his/her government
If I don’t like what Liam Fox does then I vote against the MP who supported him.
It’s indirect but that’s the way the system works here.
If I don’t like what Cecilia Malstrom does how do I change my vote to indicate that?
You voted for an MEP. In the same way as voting for an MP, voting for an MEP helps select the ultimate make-up of the European Parliament, which in turn has control over the next Commission president, who in turn chooses the Commissioners.
It’s a strikingly similar system. You just have an irrational visceral hostility to the EU which leads you to make such idiotic remarks.
Except that we do not have pan-European parties with single programmes. I dislike coalitions because people don’t get to make an informed choice.
Incidentally, you claim I have a “visceral hatred of the EU”. I don’t - as it happens I don’t hate anything or anyone as it is an entirely negative emotion - I just don’t think it was the right political structure for the U.K. going forward
So lay off the personal invective. It’s unpleasant and diminishes you.
It’s not clear whether you would prefer “pan European parties with single programmes”, but there’s nothing in the E.U. setup to prevent that.
I believe they don’t exist because we don’t have a single European demos.
Nope, the big idea was Farage’s nationalism and associated nostalgic drivel. Brexit is the ultimate ideological crusade.
So much easier to dismiss those you disagree with than to engage with their concerns.
Some politicians see it as a big idea.
I believe the voters saw it as a shout of “Enough!”
You're projecting.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
As far as I'm concerned the European Commission is "our politicians". I'd rather be represented in trade negotiations by Cecilia Malmström than Liam Fox.
I never voted for her or the alternative candidate for the position
You believe there is a European demos. I disagree.
Did you vote for Liam Fox?
I voted for an MP
If a majority of MPs support an individual they become PM
The PM selects his/her government
If I don’t like what Liam Fox does then I vote against the MP who supported him.
It’s indirect but that’s the way the system works here.
If I don’t like what Cecilia Malstrom does how do I change my vote to indicate that?
If we move to WTO trade how would you change your vote to indicate your preferred arrangements/staffing for WTO trade rules? Should we leave the World Bank as we do not get to directly vote and other countries have a say? If we want to be part of an interconnected world some things need to be delegated, and yes, we do not get to choose everything we like.
Nope. Neither of those bodies can create law for the U.K. in the way the E.U. can and they both have a fixed mandate.
What is the practical difference between WTO rules and laws? Why do they have judges if they are not laws? I don't know the answers but to me it seems very similar.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
How are out politicians restricted in fixing the problems?
For example unlimited immigration from the EU. To focus on 3 impacts:
(1) increased from other uses
(2) limitation generation
(3) interplay to reform
1 - blaming immigrants for government cuts
2 - blaming immigrants for government failures in education
3 - blaming immigrants for government failures to reform the welfare system
We will still have high-levels of immigration post-Brexit and immigrants will still be blamed for all the problems our own choices and our politicians create.
So what you're advocating is control of immigration and forcing UK governments to take responsibility for the failure of UK education and welfare systems.
You can add failures of housing policy as well.
Nope - I'm saying that we will always find others to blame for the consequences of decisions we have made ourselves. I think we still need high levels of immigration into the UK and I believe that EU immigration in particular is beneficial as it puts less strain on public services than other kinds, it is often short-term and we get reciprocal rights.
So how do thousands of East European Roma migrating to Rotherham put less strain on public services ?
And I'm not sure how many people take up the reciprocal right to migrate to Slovakia.
EU immigration is a class issue - the further up the socioeconomic scale the more advantages you receive from it while suffering the fewer disadvantages.
Support for it is a willingness for economic power to be transferred to the wealthy at the expenses of the deprived.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
As far as I'm concerned the European Commission is "our politicians". I'd rather be represented in trade negotiations by Cecilia Malmström than Liam Fox.
I never voted for her or the alternative candidate for the position
You believe there is a European demos. I disagree.
Did you vote for Liam Fox?
I voted for an MP
If a majority of MPs support an individual they become PM
The PM selects his/her government
If I don’t like what Liam Fox does then I vote against the MP who supported him.
It’s indirect but that’s the way the system works here.
If I don’t like what Cecilia Malstrom does how do I change my vote to indicate that?
You voted for an MEP. In the same way as voting for an MP, voting for an MEP helps select the ultimate make-up of the European Parliament, which in turn has control over the next Commission president, who in turn chooses the Commissioners.
It’s a strikingly similar system. You just have an irrational visceral hostility to the EU which leads you to make such idiotic remarks.
Except that we do not have pan-European parties with single programmes. I dislike coalitions because people don’t get to make an informed choice.
Incidentally, you claim I have a “visceral hatred of the EU”. I don’t - as it happens I don’t hate anything or anyone as it is an entirely negative emotion - I just don’t think it was the right political structure for the U.K. going forward
So lay off the personal invective. It’s unpleasant and diminishes you.
You don’t think it’s the right structure but just about everything you say about the EU is based on gross inaccuracies or lazy simplifications. eg your latest error is to ignore the fact that the European Parliament has pan-European groupings with common prospectuses. See, eg:
For a man who affects to be a desiccated calculating machine about the decision to Leave, you sure give the impression of someone working on irrational visceral feelings.
If you cannot see that Brexit is an ideological big idea, you are blind. It has exposed the weaknesses of our politics, driven your party mad and it had damaged the country for years to come. And above all it will do nothing to lessen the impact
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
As far as I'm concerned the European Commission is "our politicians". I'd rather be represented in trade negotiations by Cecilia Malmström than Liam Fox.
I never voted for her or the alternative candidate for the position
You believe there is a European demos. I disagree.
Did you vote for Liam Fox?
I voted for an MP
If a majority of MPs support an individual they become PM
The PM selects his/her government
If I don’t like what Liam Fox does then I vote against the MP who supported him.
It’s indirect but that’s the way the system works here.
If I don’t like what Cecilia Malstrom does how do I change my vote to indicate that?
You voted for an MEP. In the same way as voting for an MP, voting for an MEP helps select the ultimate make-up of the European Parliament, which in turn has control over the next Commission president, who in turn chooses the Commissioners.
It’s a strikingly similar system. You just have an irrational visceral hostility to the EU which leads you to make such idiotic remarks.
Except that we do not have pan-European
So lay off the personal invective. It’s unpleasant and diminishes you.
It’s not clear whether you would prefer “pan European parties with single programmes”, but there’s nothing in the E.U. setup to prevent that.
I believe they don’t exist because we don’t have a single European demos.
We don’t. Which I think you’d suggest is a good thing?
So basically, you’re kvetching about something which follows from a condition of which you approve.
September election is still 12 on Betfair. I think that’s huge value. October election is in to 4.7, which is probably too short now.
Yes, I think so. I dont think many MPs are looking forward to Conference. In any case even @HYUFD must realise that post a Boris landslide (joke!) some preparation time is needed before the Day of the Dead.
If @HYFUD is right and Boris intends to throw NI under the bus, then we’re going to get a VoNC called by Corbyn within hours of the Con leadership announcement if Boris wins, as the DUP withdraw their confidence.
Bercow will of course be happy to extend Parliament, or do anything else required to facilitate Parliament frustrating Boris.
There’s also the chance of Dominic Grieve, Ken Clarke and a couple of other older Tory remainers being happy to resign the whip, vote against a Boris government and retire at the election.
I think we get a massive constitutional mess in the last week of July, and have an election in September with Mrs May still PM.
For this reason, Jeremy Corbyn at 75 for next PM is also massive value on BF Ex.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
As far as I'm concerned the European Commission is "our politicians". I'd rather be represented in trade negotiations by Cecilia Malmström than Liam Fox.
I never voted for her or the alternative candidate for the position
You believe there is a European demos. I disagree.
Did you vote for Liam Fox?
I voted for an MP
If a majority of MPs support an individual they become PM
The PM selects his/her government
If I don’t like what Liam Fox does then I vote against the MP who supported him.
It’s indirect but that’s the way the system works here.
If I don’t like what Cecilia Malstrom does how do I change my vote to indicate that?
You voted for an MEP. In the same way as voting for an MP, voting for an MEP helps select the ultimate make-up of the European Parliament, which in turn has control over the next Commission president, who in turn chooses the Commissioners.
It’s a strikingly similar system. You just have an irrational visceral hostility to the EU which leads you to make such idiotic remarks.
Except that we do not have pan-European
So lay off the personal invective. It’s unpleasant and diminishes you.
It’s not clear whether you would prefer “pan European parties with single programmes”, but there’s nothing in the E.U. setup to prevent that.
I believe they don’t exist because we don’t have a single European demos.
We don’t. Which I think you’d suggest is a good thing?
So basically, you’re kvetching about something which follows from a condition of which you approve.
No - I’m saying that we don’t have effective democratic oversight of the Commission. I think that’s a problem, but the conditions don’t exist for an appropriate resolution
Incidentally, you claim I have a “visceral hatred of the EU”. I don’t - as it happens I don’t hate anything or anyone as it is an entirely negative emotion - I just don’t think it was the right political structure for the U.K. going forward
You can have Brexit or the union but not both, so it’s a real catch 22. As soon as Brexit is delivered, whether the EU was the right political structure for the former UK will become irrelevant.
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
As far as I'm concerned the European Commission is "our politicians". I'd rather be represented in trade negotiations by Cecilia Malmström than Liam Fox.
I never voted for her or the alternative candidate for the position
You believe there is a European demos. I disagree.
Did you vote for Liam Fox?
I voted for an MP
If a majority of MPs support an individual they become PM
The PM selects his/her government
If I don’t like what Liam Fox does then I vote against the MP who supported him.
It’s indirect but that’s the way the system works here.
If I don’t like what Cecilia Malstrom does how do I change my vote to indicate that?
You voted for an MEP. In the same way as voting for an MP, voting for an MEP helps select the ultimate make-up of the European Parliament, which in turn has control over the next Commission president, who in turn chooses the Commissioners.
It’s a strikingly similar system. You just have an irrational visceral hostility to the EU which leads you to make such idiotic remarks.
Except that we do not have pan-European parties with single programmes. I dislike coalitions because people don’t get to make an informed choice.
Incidentally, you claim I have a “visceral hatred of the EU”. I don’t - as it happens I don’t hate anything or anyone as it is an entirely negative emotion - I just don’t think it was the right political structure for the U.K. going forward
So lay off the personal invective. It’s unpleasant and diminishes you.
You don’t think it’s the right structure but just about everything you say about the EU is based on gross inaccuracies or lazy simplifications. eg your latest error is to ignore the fact that the European Parliament has pan-European groupings with common prospectuses. See, eg:
For a man who affects to be a desiccated calculating machine about the decision to Leave, you sure give the impression of someone working on irrational visceral feelings.
How many votes in the last E.U. election were cast on the basis of those manifestos in your view?
Incidentally, you claim I have a “visceral hatred of the EU”. I don’t - as it happens I don’t hate anything or anyone as it is an entirely negative emotion - I just don’t think it was the right political structure for the U.K. going forward
You can have Brexit or the union but not both, so it’s a real catch 22. As soon as Brexit is delivered, whether the EU was the right political structure for the former UK will become irrelevant.
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
As faröm than Liam Fox.
I never voted for her or the alternative candidate for the position
You believe there is a European demos. I disagree.
Did you vote for Liam Fox?
I voted for an MP
If a majority of MPs support an individual they become PM
The PM selects his/her government
If I don’t like what Liam Fox does then I vote against the MP who supported him.
It’s indirect but that’s the way the system works here.
If I don’t like what Cecilia Malstrom does how do I change my vote to indicate that?
You voted for an MEP. In the same way as voting for an MP, voting for an MEP helps select the ultimate make-up of the European Parliament, which in turn has control over the next Commission president, who in turn chooses the Commissioners.
It’s a strikingly similar system. You just have an irrational visceral hostility to the EU which leads you to make such idiotic remarks.
Except that we do not have pan-European
So lay off the personal invective. It’s unpleasant and diminishes you.
It’s not clear whether you would prefer “pan European parties with single programmes”, but there’s nothing in the E.U. setup to prevent that.
I believe they don’t exist because we don’t have a single European demos.
We don’t. Which I think you’d suggest is a good thing?
So basically, you’re kvetching about something which follows from a condition of which you approve.
No - I’m saying that we don’t have effective democratic oversight of the Commission. I think that’s a problem, but the conditions don’t exist for an appropriate resolution
As pointed out above, we elect MEPs to do that.
Unfortunately, our media is totally uninterested in the goings on in Europe (unless myth-making about banana curvature) and we elect MEPs with the worst attendance records in Europe.
Lift the lid on any Brexit myth and it turns out the problem is actually in our own control.
(With the noted and significant exception of immigration, but even that is not a one-way story).
Loving Charles’ argument that we needed to leave the EU because it wasn’t integrated enough.
The smell of straws clutched. The truth is simpler, he (and many others) are nostalgic for a utopian view of the past. They want their country back. They want to take back control. They want to make Britain great again.
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
As far as I'm concerned the European Commission is "our politicians". I'd rather be represented in trade negotiations by Cecilia Malmström than Liam Fox.
I never voted for her or the alternative candidate for the position
You believe there is a European demos. I disagree.
Did you vote for Liam Fox?
I voted for an MP
If a majority of MPs support an individual they become PM
The PM selects his/her government
If I don’t like what Liam Fox does then I vote against the MP who supported him.
It’s indirect but that’s the way the system works here.
If I don’t like what Cecilia Malstrom does how do I change my vote to indicate that?
You voted for an MEP. In the same way as voting for an MP, voting for an MEP helps select the ultimate make-up of the European Parliament, which in turn has control over the next Commission president, who in turn chooses the Commissioners.
It’s a strikingly similar system. You just have an irrational visceral hostility to the EU which leads you to make such idiotic remarks.
Except that we do not have pan-European parties with single programmes. I dislike coalitions because people don’t get to make an informed choice.
Incidentally, you claim I have a “visceral hatred of the EU”. I don’t - as it happens I don’t hate anything or anyone as it is an entirely negative emotion - I just don’t think it was the right political structure for the U.K. going forward
So lay off the personal invective. It’s unpleasant and diminishes you.
You don’t think it’s the right structure but just about everything you say about the EU is based on gross inaccuracies or lazy simplifications. eg your latest error is to ignore the fact that the European Parliament has pan-European groupings with common prospectuses. See, eg:
For a man who affects to be a desiccated calculating machine about the decision to Leave, you sure give the impression of someone working on irrational visceral feelings.
How many votes in the last E.U. election were cast on the basis of those manifestos in your view?
It would be more graceful to admit that you were wrong.
This line stood out: The Commons could choose to hold a last-minute vote to change the summer recess, but it would be more sensible to face this reality now.
There aren't many certainties in politics at the moment, but I'm confident that the MPs will bury their heads in the sand for the next three weeks.
People who say “Brexit won’t solve this” are both right and missing the point.
As things stand, our politicians are restricted in their ability to fix the problems and are insulated from the consequences of their failure (it’s very easy for them to blame “Europe”)
Post Brexit they will have nowhere to hide. I hope the voters will hold them accountable for their failures.
How are out politicians restricted in fixing the problems?
For example unlimited immigration from the EU. To focus on 3 impacts:
(1) increased from other uses
(2) limitation generation
(3) interplay to reform
1 - blaming immigrants for government cuts
2 - blaming immigrants for government failures in education
3 - blaming immigrants for government failures to reform the welfare system
We will still have high-levels of immigration post-Brexit and immigrants will still be blamed for all the problems our own choices and our politicians create.
So what you're advocating is control of immigration and forcing UK governments to take responsibility for the failure of UK education and welfare systems.
You can add failures of housing policy as well.
Nope - rights.
So how do thousands of East European Roma migrating to Rotherham put less strain on public services ?
And I'm not sure how many people take up the reciprocal right to migrate to Slovakia.
EU immigration is a class issue - the further up the socioeconomic scale the more advantages you receive from it while suffering the fewer disadvantages.
Support for it is a willingness for economic power to be transferred to the wealthy at the expenses of the deprived.
Very few migrate to Slovakia. Many migrate to other parts of Europe. That's the great thing, you see, the reciprocal right covers 30+ countries.
As for the class thing - a working class pensioner being looked after by a young migrant from Poland is benefiting hugely from EU immigration, as is the working class factory worker being treated by a Dutch doctor.
EU immigration is not all about gypsies and nannies. In fact, they are a vanishingly small part of the picture.
This line stood out: The Commons could choose to hold a last-minute vote to change the summer recess, but it would be more sensible to face this reality now.
There aren't many certainties in politics at the moment, but I'm confident that the MPs will bury their heads in the sand for the next three weeks.
One of the complications is that the required later recess could be a day or two, if the new PM achieves confidence at least for the time being, or up to two weeks if he doesn’t.
Loving Charles’ argument that we needed to leave the EU because it wasn’t integrated enough.
The smell of straws clutched. The truth is simpler, he (and many others) are nostalgic for a utopian view of the past. They want their country back. They want to take back control. They want to make Britain great again.
In today’s deeply interdependent world, the whole idea embodied in such ringing metaphors as “taking control,” “making our own laws” and “getting our country back” is fundamentally, intellectually and factually flawed.
If a majority of MPs support an individual they become PM
The PM selects his/her government
If I don’t like what Liam Fox does then I vote against the MP who supported him.
It’s indirect but that’s the way the system works here.
If I don’t like what Cecilia Malstrom does how do I change my vote to indicate that?
You voted for an MEP. In the same way as voting for an MP, voting for an MEP helps select the ultimate make-up of the European Parliament, which in turn has control over the next Commission president, who in turn chooses the Commissioners.
It’s a strikingly similar system. You just have an irrational visceral hostility to the EU which leads you to make such idiotic remarks.
Except that we do not have pan-European
So lay off the personal invective. It’s unpleasant and diminishes you.
It’s not clear whether you would prefer “pan European parties with single programmes”, but there’s nothing in the E.U. setup to prevent that.
I believe they don’t exist because we don’t have a single European demos.
We don’t. Which I think you’d suggest is a good thing?
So basically, you’re kvetching about something which follows from a condition of which you approve.
No - I’m saying that we don’t have effective democratic oversight of the Commission. I think that’s a problem, but the conditions don’t exist for an appropriate resolution
As pointed out above, we elect MEPs to do that.
Unfortunately, our media is totally uninterested in the goings on in Europe (unless myth-making about banana curvature) and we elect MEPs with the worst attendance records in Europe.
Lift the lid on any Brexit myth and it turns out the problem is actually in our own control.
(With the noted and significant exception of immigration, but even that is not a one-way story).
“Effective” is the key word.
If 100% of British voters voted for a Marxist government we could still end up with an EPP-led Commission.
That’s a problem in my view.
If we had a single demos then that wouldn’t arise. But we don’t, and without one I don’t see how that issue is resolved.
This line stood out: The Commons could choose to hold a last-minute vote to change the summer recess, but it would be more sensible to face this reality now.
There aren't many certainties in politics at the moment, but I'm confident that the MPs will bury their heads in the sand for the next three weeks.
One of the complications is that the required later recess could be a day or two, if the new PM achieves confidence at least for the time being, or up to two weeks if he doesn’t.
The article goes on to suggest that confidence may be more likely to be granted in July because the MPs want their holidays. That's probably a fair assessment.
You can lay a 2022 next GE at 4.1 on BFE, which looks like an outstanding bet that covers quite a few angles. AFAICS the only scenario where we run to 2022 is if the Tories (and DUP) cling to Boris and Boris clings to office until the end, both for fear of the electorate.
Comments
Regarding Corbyn he backed the civil service and did not believe the journalist regarding his health.
Charles on this site put out some differing rumours a few weeks back.
You believe there is a European demos. I disagree.
It seems to me that neither side really do anything different. Trump meets Kim and then gets to say, "Look how great I'm doing on the foreign policy side of things." Kim gets to meet a US President as his equal and boost his internal and external standing.
But does anything actually get achieved? It seems to me not.
(1) increased utilisation of capacity limited public services. Difficult to address, especially in the cities where physical space is limited and drains resources from other uses
(2) limitation of opportunities for less skilled British citizens - we’ve seen highly qualified Eastern or Southern Europeans taking jobs below their capability levels because of lack of opportunities at home. This limits opportunities for the Brits who would have historically filled those roles. You can fix this for the future through education reform but it doesn’t help the current generation
(3) interplay with welfare system. I believe that our welfare system is something we can be proud of. But the requirement to extend it to all EU citizens who move to the U.K. makes it unaffordable. In any event it is politically very difficult to reform
Diehard remainer = Rules out remaining and revoke, votes to leave the EU
Soft remainer = Keen to leave and would leave with no deal but not if close to deal
Soft leaver = Wants a no deal but would talk to EU afterwards
Proper leaver = Votes against leaving the EU
Ideologically I’M biased? Well, insofar as I have a political opinion based on my observation of the world in my personal and professional life, yes. As, clearly, are you given your hyper partisanship about Boris in the face of much contradictory evidence you choose to ignore or disregard as “biased”. Everyone on this board is biased to a viewpoint. I’m not sure where stating the obvious gets you.
Barnier made positive noises about such a deal I admit. But he doesn’t make the decisions. Indeed he won’t even necessarily be even eading the next set of negotiations as the EU has disbanded his team. The Canada deal was nearly derailed by Wallonia FFS. Given the passions exited by Brexit, inflamed by Boris’ lack of diplomacy (“turds”, “picaninies”) why do you assume that this one will sail through 27 member states and their subdivisions? I’ve given you reasons why IMHO it won’t and, whatever my personal views, you have not chosen to rebut them. For the record I said the same thing about DD and VW riding to the rescue. I was right - although everyone with an ounce of sense said the same thing so I’m hardly Nostradamus.
BTW what is a “proper” Brexit. Who is the arbiter of the same?
It is true that the two party system makes the prospect daunting for any MP wishing to preserve his career, but it is also true that there is a quite strong prospect of a third party holding the balance of power. Which would be reinforced by further defections.
The LibDem dream of a fairer electoral system might just be within their reach.
Alastair’s if not now, then when question is a good one both morally and tactically.
And think of the threads on PR.
Clearly it is all a wash but might there be some optics in it?
In most cases that will be better than relocating (especially as most specialist engineering is SME based)
Borrowing for tax cuts and trying to out Ireland on corporation taxes is a different kettle of fish.
I should add that all the stars have aligned for Johnson, factional opposition and the leader of the main opposition party being totally underwhelming.
2 - blaming immigrants for government failures in education
3 - blaming immigrants for government failures to reform the welfare system
We will still have high-levels of immigration post-Brexit and immigrants will still be blamed for all the problems our own choices and our politicians create.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1145272739919519744
Inflating borrowing for tax cuts is the same bad policy.
If a majority of MPs support an individual they become PM
The PM selects his/her government
If I don’t like what Liam Fox does then I vote against the MP who supported him.
It’s indirect but that’s the way the system works here.
If I don’t like what Cecilia Malstrom does how do I change my vote to indicate that?
It’s a strikingly similar system. You just have an irrational visceral hostility to the EU which leads you to make such idiotic remarks.
Freedom of movement would've been necessary for single market access, but not for passporting (I did elsewhere say I might've been ok with single market access, so it's possible this was just a quoting mix up).
You can add failures of housing policy as well.
October election is in to 4.7, which is probably too short now.
Pity they didn't realise that batting first is the way to go before they played Australia.
The idea that stopping EU migration would improve economic prospects in Ebbw Vale or Wigan is poppycock. The only way it would help would be if those Britons fancied pulling cabbages in the Fens or working in Social Care in the South East, by internally migrating.
The answers lie elsewhere, not least in the form of redistributive regional policies like those of the EU. There seems little enthusiasm for that amongst PB Brexiteers, and in any case it does not require Brexit.
* unless you are in the West Wing and then it can be fixed in a single 45 minute episode
It’s a compromise, but quite an elegant one, considering the tension between Union and Nation.
The EU *could* be more democratic, but in making it so we would, ironically, be surrendering more power, because we would enable greater legitimacy, to the Commission.
People who bang out about the so called undemocratic E.U. haven’t really thought much about it.
Now you might be right that restricting immigration might not improve things in Ebbw Vale or Wigan but it might very well stop things from getting worse.
Incidentally, you claim I have a “visceral hatred of the EU”. I don’t - as it happens I don’t hate anything or anyone as it is an entirely negative emotion - I just don’t think it was the right political structure for the U.K. going forward
So lay off the personal invective. It’s unpleasant and diminishes you.
How is E.U. migration making Wigan “worse”?
You are reaching for pseudo-economic myths to support what was essentially a vote inspired by a fear of “cultural change” and jealousy of a supposed elite of Londoners, European bureaucrats, and foreigners.
How will stopping EU migration slow the decline of Ebbw Vale? I do not follow.
You could.
But you didn't...
And I'm not sure how many people take up the reciprocal right to migrate to Slovakia.
EU immigration is a class issue - the further up the socioeconomic scale the more advantages you receive from it while suffering the fewer disadvantages.
Support for it is a willingness for economic power to be transferred to the wealthy at the expenses of the deprived.
https://www.epp.eu/files/uploads/2019/05/EPP-MANIFESTO-2019.pdf
https://www.aldeparty.eu/sites/alde/files/40-Resolutions/2019_freedom_opportunity_prosperity_the_liberal_vision_for_the_future_of_europe_0.pdf
https://www.pes.eu/en/manifesto2019/
For a man who affects to be a desiccated calculating machine about the decision to Leave, you sure give the impression of someone working on irrational visceral feelings.
Which I think you’d suggest is a good thing?
So basically, you’re kvetching about something which follows from a condition of which you approve.
The practical difference is it sets the terms of trade (it’s like a contract). The EU’s remit can be far wider and is constantly enlarging.
Edit ref @noneoftheabove on the WTO 12:11
Bercow will of course be happy to extend Parliament, or do anything else required to facilitate Parliament frustrating Boris.
There’s also the chance of Dominic Grieve, Ken Clarke and a couple of other older Tory remainers being happy to resign the whip, vote against a Boris government and retire at the election.
I think we get a massive constitutional mess in the last week of July, and have an election in September with Mrs May still PM.
For this reason, Jeremy Corbyn at 75 for next PM is also massive value on BF Ex.
Time will tell.
Unfortunately, our media is totally uninterested in the goings on in Europe (unless myth-making about banana curvature) and we elect MEPs with the worst attendance records in Europe.
Lift the lid on any Brexit myth and it turns out the problem is actually in our own control.
(With the noted and significant exception of immigration, but even that is not a one-way story).
The smell of straws clutched. The truth is simpler, he (and many others) are nostalgic for a utopian view of the past. They want their country back. They want to take back control. They want to make Britain great again.
There aren't many certainties in politics at the moment, but I'm confident that the MPs will bury their heads in the sand for the next three weeks.
As for the class thing - a working class pensioner being looked after by a young migrant from Poland is benefiting hugely from EU immigration, as is the working class factory worker being treated by a Dutch doctor.
EU immigration is not all about gypsies and nannies. In fact, they are a vanishingly small part of the picture.
https://t.co/Iygkc2T8p4
If 100% of British voters voted for a Marxist government we could still end up with an EPP-led Commission.
That’s a problem in my view.
If we had a single demos then that wouldn’t arise. But we don’t, and without one I don’t see how that issue is resolved.