The UK has had a continuous trade deficit since 1998.
That's 22 years of consecutive trade deficit.
Do you think that the UK's trade policy is successful ?
Or do you wonder if the UK's trade policy has been inappropriate for the UK economy ?
I think that the trade deficit is a result of wider economic policy - eg the support given to house prices that make voters feel wealthy and more likely to vote for the incumbent government.
I have no idea whether the narrow question of the UK's trade policy has had a positive or negative effect.
That's a good point.
But if we assume that governments are going to give support to house prices, encourage people to live beyond their means and generally spend more than they tax ** then perhaps trade policy (and other aspects of economic strategy) should be formulated to reflect that.
Whereas the trade strategy of ever freer trade which the UK has pursued over the last few decades has resulted in 22 consecutive years of trade deficit.
** There doesn't seem much likelihood that the next GE will not be filled with tax cut and spending increase promises.
There is a lot of truth to your assumption, but I don't think that second-order aspects of economic policy can adequately compensate for first-order errors. There is no alternative to being honest about the biggest problem.
So I don't accept your premise that it is the UK policy of free trade that has resulted in the trade deficits. It is possible that leaving the EU would narrow our trade deficit, but this would most likely be if it resulted in a major economic crash so that we simply could not afford the imports we are currently purchasing.
It's entirely possible that the trade deficit could worsen, if the countries we sell things to (like cars or pharmaceuticals) are more able to find other sources for those items than we are able to find domestic sources for some of the things that we buy (like food and oil/gas).
...Chinese President Xi Jinping has compared the tech conflict with the U.S. to the Red Army's "Long March" under Mao in the 1930s -- which many observers say indicates that the country is girding for a prolonged battle.
"Even if the Chinese tech industry is not ready, we will have no choice but to take the 'new Long March,"' said Wang Huiyao, president of the Center for China and Globalization, an independent think tank in Beijing. "The Chinese tech industry is at a critical moment and we can't just sit and watch it die. We used to rely on global suppliers, letting other countries do what they can do the best. Now, we will have to build our own supply chain."
That's one way of looking at it.
Another is that this is the direction China has been heading in for decades, and you might even say it is their plan. And I doubt "two systems" is referring just to technology.
But China are not yet ready, as is pointed out. In another ten or twenty yeas they will be, but not yet. Hence now might be the ideal time for the US to take them on in this manner - especially as China hasn't exactly been playing fair in the past.
But without change in China, the situation is inevitable.
Perhaps. But Trump is forcing trade partners to take sides - at the same time as imposing tariffs on many of them. The divide might be inevitable, but it is not necessarily being managed to the benefit of the US.
In the short term, perhaps. But in the medium- and long-term this may be exactly what the US - and the West - needs.
The Raabites seem to be going very much for Boris, which isn't much of a surprise (see Guardian live blog). Perhaps the vote totals of the other contenders won't change much this time round.
Those who appear to share his low standards of personal morality appear to be rallying to him - Michael Fallon and Damian Green who were both casualties of the Sex Pests affair. Then there is Andrea Jenkyns who had a bastard before marrying a fellow Tory MP.
"... who had a bastard before marrying a fellow Tory MP."
The only bastard is you.
I assure you I was not born out of wedlock.
'Bastard' has many meanings. You are choosing to use a rather archaic one - and one which many of your co-religionists would disagree with. I chose to brand you with the everyday meaning.
The child is innocent. It is not his or her fault that the parents were not married when he was conceived. He should not be called derogatory names because of it. Ezekiel 18:19-20 comes to mind.
Now there will be a multitude of factors affecting this but it does make me wonder whether the single market has been good for the UK economy.
Do I have all the answers to this ? Certainly not, I don't even have all the questions. But I'm certain there is a major problem here and its a problem many other PBers are in denial about.
I think re BoJo keeping the base once he's in office: look to Trump. Did he build a wall? Did he repeal Obamacare? Did he heck. But his base loves him because he embodies, literally, what they want: a racist old white guy shouting at the kids on his lawn.
BoJo fulfils the same impulse for the little Englander, in their post colonial malaise. He sounds jolly good, and can certainly tell Johnny Foreigner and the Scotch where to get to, and he will stand astride the globe as leader of an international trading powerhouse! And if he only does the first part, well... that's all they really care about.
Huh. You reckon that Johnson can remain popular even if we stay in Brexit limbo?
I think the difference with Trump is that Boris would see serious criticism from the ERG/Farage on his side of the political divide, whereas the GOP and Conservative media have mostly stayed loyal to Trump because he has delivered on things like Supreme Court justices. What is Johnson going to do to keep Baker/Francois/Farage happy?
Now there will be a multitude of factors affecting this but it does make me wonder whether the single market has been good for the UK economy.
Do I have all the answers to this ? Certainly not, I don't even have all the questions. But I'm certain there is a major problem here and its a problem many other PBers are in denial about.
Jesus fucking Christ. There is a problem you believe which is a trade deficit with the EU. You have no idea if it is a problem you just think it is and you think that if we leave the EU you can solve it. And you keep on banging on about it as if leaving the EU is the silver bullet and yet by your own admission you have no fucking clue whether or why or how it is a problem and what would solve it?
How do you think a trade deficit occurs? Because people here buy more stuff from abroad than people abroad buy stuff from us. There's a quick primer for you.
So how are you going to solve it by leaving the EU? Or FFS STFU with your trite "trade deficit" one liners.
I think re BoJo keeping the base once he's in office: look to Trump. Did he build a wall? Did he repeal Obamacare? Did he heck. But his base loves him because he embodies, literally, what they want: a racist old white guy shouting at the kids on his lawn.
BoJo fulfils the same impulse for the little Englander, in their post colonial malaise. He sounds jolly good, and can certainly tell Johnny Foreigner and the Scotch where to get to, and he will stand astride the globe as leader of an international trading powerhouse! And if he only does the first part, well... that's all they really care about.
Now there will be a multitude of factors affecting this but it does make me wonder whether the single market has been good for the UK economy.
Do I have all the answers to this ? Certainly not, I don't even have all the questions. But I'm certain there is a major problem here and its a problem many other PBers are in denial about.
Do all other countries in the EU have trade deficits, or do some have trade surpluses? If the latter (hint, yes), then it shows that the single market isn't the problem, and that we have other internal issues to address.
There is nothing stopping us copying Germany's success wrt trade. And the EU isn't stopping us from getting there.
Good afternoon. Does anyone think Rory could get knocked out today, rather than Javid?
I will be surprised if he survives. Why would the Hard Brexit crew not take the opportunity to knock him out?
So we should expect Boris's numbers to go down to help Stewart's rivals?
I'm a bit confused.
Is Rory (1) so useless/weird/crypto-socialist that Johnson would thrash him in the members' ballot or (2) such a big threat that the Bexiteers' first priority is to stop him getting there?
Bit late to this thread here , but I find it truly fascinating how the this poll of public reaction puts Rory and Javid in precisely reverse places to much of the media and professional online response.
I think re BoJo keeping the base once he's in office: look to Trump. Did he build a wall? Did he repeal Obamacare? Did he heck. But his base loves him because he embodies, literally, what they want: a racist old white guy shouting at the kids on his lawn.
BoJo fulfils the same impulse for the little Englander, in their post colonial malaise. He sounds jolly good, and can certainly tell Johnny Foreigner and the Scotch where to get to, and he will stand astride the globe as leader of an international trading powerhouse! And if he only does the first part, well... that's all they really care about.
Huh. You reckon that Johnson can remain popular even if we stay in Brexit limbo?
I think the difference with Trump is that Boris would see serious criticism from the ERG/Farage on his side of the political divide, whereas the GOP and Conservative media have mostly stayed loyal to Trump because he has delivered on things like Supreme Court justices. What is Johnson going to do to keep Baker/Francois/Farage happy?
Beating Corbyn in the next election I think is the big one
The UK has had a continuous trade deficit since 1998.
That's 22 years of consecutive trade deficit.
Do you think that the UK's trade policy is successful ?
Or do you wonder if the UK's trade policy has been inappropriate for the UK economy ?
I think that the trade deficit is a result of wider economic policy - eg the support given to house prices that make voters feel wealthy and more likely to vote for the incumbent government.
I have no idea whether the narrow question of the UK's trade policy has had a positive or negative effect.
That's a good point.
But if we assume that governments are going to give support to house prices, encourage people to live beyond their means and generally spend more than they tax ** then perhaps trade policy (and other aspects of economic strategy) should be formulated to reflect that.
Whereas the trade strategy of ever freer trade which the UK has pursued over the last few decades has resulted in 22 consecutive years of trade deficit.
** There doesn't seem much likelihood that the next GE will not be filled with tax cut and spending increase promises.
There is a lot of truth to your assumption, but I don't think that second-order aspects of economic policy can adequately compensate for first-order errors. There is no alternative to being honest about the biggest problem.
So I don't accept your premise that it is the UK policy of free trade that has resulted in the trade deficits. It is possible that leaving the EU would narrow our trade deficit, but this would most likely be if it resulted in a major economic crash so that we simply could not afford the imports we are currently purchasing.
It's entirely possible that the trade deficit could worsen, if the countries we sell things to (like cars or pharmaceuticals) are more able to find other sources for those items than we are able to find domestic sources for some of the things that we buy (like food and oil/gas).
That may very well be true.
But I've given up hope that the British people in general or British politicians in particular are ever voluntarily going to live within their means.
It is for that reason that I'm a supporter of a lower value for Sterling and for the radical change which Brexit could bring.
Likewise I would be more supportive of the reduction of carbon emissions if that meant less over-consumption and tariffs on imports from higher polluting countries.
Now there will be a multitude of factors affecting this but it does make me wonder whether the single market has been good for the UK economy.
Do I have all the answers to this ? Certainly not, I don't even have all the questions. But I'm certain there is a major problem here and its a problem many other PBers are in denial about.
Jesus fucking Christ. There is a problem you believe which is a trade deficit with the EU. You have no idea if it is a problem you just think it is and you think that if we leave the EU you can solve it. And you keep on banging on about it as if leaving the EU is the silver bullet and yet by your own admission you have no fucking clue whether or why or how it is a problem and what would solve it?
How do you think a trade deficit occurs? Because people here buy more stuff from abroad than people abroad buy stuff from us. There's a quick primer for you.
So how are you going to solve it by leaving the EU? Or FFS STFU with your trite "trade deficit" one liners.
The collapse in the £ after the Brexit vote has surely made it worse, at least in the short to medium term.
Now there will be a multitude of factors affecting this but it does make me wonder whether the single market has been good for the UK economy.
Do I have all the answers to this ? Certainly not, I don't even have all the questions. But I'm certain there is a major problem here and its a problem many other PBers are in denial about.
Jesus fucking Christ. There is a problem you believe which is a trade deficit with the EU. You have no idea if it is a problem you just think it is and you think that if we leave the EU you can solve it. And you keep on banging on about it as if leaving the EU is the silver bullet and yet by your own admission you have no fucking clue whether or why or how it is a problem and what would solve it?
How do you think a trade deficit occurs? Because people here buy more stuff from abroad than people abroad buy stuff from us. There's a quick primer for you.
So how are you going to solve it by leaving the EU? Or FFS STFU with your trite "trade deficit" one liners.
There's one thing for certain: he won't have read a report on it.
Bit late to this thread here , but I find it truly fascinating how the this poll of public reaction puts Rory and Javid in precisely reverse places to much of the media and supposedly expert online response.
That's because the poll has little to do with how they actually performed in the debate.
Bit late to this thread here , but I find it truly fascinating how the this poll of public reaction puts Rory and Javid in precisely reverse places to much of the media and supposedly expert online response.
Some people are focussing on the race for Tory leader, others are looking at what other party’s voters think.
Bit late to this thread here , but I find it truly fascinating how the this poll of public reaction puts Rory and Javid in precisely reverse places to much of the media and supposedly expert online response.
That's because the poll has little to do with how they actually performed in the debate.
And yet it clearly seems to be telling us what is the only significance of the debate for those people.
Maybe performance was less important than impression.
Good afternoon. Does anyone think Rory could get knocked out today, rather than Javid?
I will be surprised if he survives. Why would the Hard Brexit crew not take the opportunity to knock him out?
So we should expect Boris's numbers to go down to help Stewart's rivals?
I'm a bit confused.
Is Rory (1) so useless/weird/crypto-socialist that Johnson would thrash him in the members' ballot or (2) such a big threat that the Bexiteers' first priority is to stop him getting there?
He's kinda both. He starts from a naturally worse position, but with a bit more X-factor
Now there will be a multitude of factors affecting this but it does make me wonder whether the single market has been good for the UK economy.
Do I have all the answers to this ? Certainly not, I don't even have all the questions. But I'm certain there is a major problem here and its a problem many other PBers are in denial about.
Jesus fucking Christ. There is a problem you believe which is a trade deficit with the EU. You have no idea if it is a problem you just think it is and you think that if we leave the EU you can solve it. And you keep on banging on about it as if leaving the EU is the silver bullet and yet by your own admission you have no fucking clue whether or why or how it is a problem and what would solve it?
How do you think a trade deficit occurs? Because people here buy more stuff from abroad than people abroad buy stuff from us. There's a quick primer for you.
So how are you going to solve it by leaving the EU? Or FFS STFU with your trite "trade deficit" one liners.
The collapse in the £ after the Brexit vote has surely made it worse, at least in the short to medium term.
A collapse in the pound, ceteris paribus, would make it better as our goods would become cheaper to the furriners, while there would be some degree of import substitution.
Now there will be a multitude of factors affecting this but it does make me wonder whether the single market has been good for the UK economy.
Do I have all the answers to this ? Certainly not, I don't even have all the questions. But I'm certain there is a major problem here and its a problem many other PBers are in denial about.
Jesus fucking Christ. There is a problem you believe which is a trade deficit with the EU. You have no idea if it is a problem you just think it is and you think that if we leave the EU you can solve it. And you keep on banging on about it as if leaving the EU is the silver bullet and yet by your own admission you have no fucking clue whether or why or how it is a problem and what would solve it?
How do you think a trade deficit occurs? Because people here buy more stuff from abroad than people abroad buy stuff from us. There's a quick primer for you.
So how are you going to solve it by leaving the EU? Or FFS STFU with your trite "trade deficit" one liners.
The collapse in the £ after the Brexit vote has surely made it worse, at least in the short to medium term.
A collapse in the pound, ceteris paribus, would make it better as our goods would become cheaper to the furriners, while there would be some degree of import substitution.
In the medium to long term, as and when production and consumption adjusts to the new rates. In the short term everything we are buying and importing from them becomes more expensive. Anyone who has been abroad recently will be well aware. Or indeed any wine drinker at home.
I think Gove is a decent bet at 7/2 (Ladbrokes) to get most votes in the 3rd ballot (excluding Johnson). He was 5 behind Hunt on the second ballot but I think he's a more likely beneficiary than Hunt to pick up Raab's backers. Boris seemed to be going wobbly on must leave on October 31st in the debate last night so might not get as many transfers from Raab.
Bit late to this thread here , but I find it truly fascinating how the this poll of public reaction puts Rory and Javid in precisely reverse places to much of the media and supposedly expert online response.
Some people are focussing on the race for Tory leader, others are looking at what other party’s voters think.
The Tory leader race is the primary immediate focus.
However: the race is about who comes PM, both immediately and in any future GE. If Conservative MPs had any sense, then the latter would be a very important factor in their thinking. Their aim has to be to get as large a majority as possible, and definitely improve on the minority government they have.
Therefore looking at what other party's voters think is very important - as the Conservative Party needs as many of them as possible.
I think Gove is a decent bet at 7/2 (Ladbrokes) to get most votes in the 3rd ballot (excluding Johnson). He was 5 behind Hunt on the second ballot but I think he's a more likely beneficiary than Hunt to pick up Raab's backers. Boris seemed to be going wobbly on must leave on October 31st in the debate last night so might not get as many transfers from Raab.
I think people are projecting a lot onto each candidate (surely he must be better than X or not do Y or eventually accept Z). The only candidate who appears to be telling it like it is is getting hammered for his pains.
Bit late to this thread here , but I find it truly fascinating how the this poll of public reaction puts Rory and Javid in precisely reverse places to much of the media and supposedly expert online response.
Some people are focussing on the race for Tory leader, others are looking at what other party’s voters think.
The Tory leader race is the primary immediate focus.
However: the race is about who comes PM, both immediately and in any future GE. If Conservative MPs had any sense, then the latter would be a very important factor in their thinking. Their aim has to be to get as large a majority as possible, and definitely improve on the minority government they have.
Therefore looking at what other party's voters think is very important - as the Conservative Party needs as many of them as possible.
Didn’t say it wasnt, but that’s why some reactions in the media are different to those in the public
1. is probably right (although more Indys would have hit the LDs also). Certainly the Tories would have been crucified if up against BXP council candidates as well.
2. is an overstatement. Of course the LibDems bounced back hardest in areas of past strength - which have the organisation and voter memory - but the reason they were able to do so well was significantly down to Brexit. Ask anyone in Chelmsford, or indeed most of Surrey
6. is somewhat complacent - the Euro election pattern doesn't need to be replicated in full for the two old parties to take a significant hit
7. may be right, but it's a question of the damage already being done rather than the opportunity not having been there in the first place, as the 2017 GE demonstrated
8. ditto. That your positioning is wrong doesn't necessarily mean a change is beneficial, since the people unhappy with the change are generally more willing to vote elsewhere than those pleased are to switch to you.
Now there will be a multitude of factors affecting this but it does make me wonder whether the single market has been good for the UK economy.
Do I have all the answers to this ? Certainly not, I don't even have all the questions. But I'm certain there is a major problem here and its a problem many other PBers are in denial about.
Jesus fucking Christ. There is a problem you believe which is a trade deficit with the EU. You have no idea if it is a problem you just think it is and you think that if we leave the EU you can solve it. And you keep on banging on about it as if leaving the EU is the silver bullet and yet by your own admission you have no fucking clue whether or why or how it is a problem and what would solve it?
How do you think a trade deficit occurs? Because people here buy more stuff from abroad than people abroad buy stuff from us. There's a quick primer for you.
So how are you going to solve it by leaving the EU? Or FFS STFU with your trite "trade deficit" one liners.
The collapse in the £ after the Brexit vote has surely made it worse, at least in the short to medium term.
A collapse in the pound, ceteris paribus, would make it better as our goods would become cheaper to the furriners, while there would be some degree of import substitution.
In the medium to long term, as and when production and consumption adjusts to the new rates. In the short term everything we are buying and importing from them becomes more expensive. Anyone who has been abroad recently will be well aware. Or indeed any wine drinker at home.
Which latter point is of course arguably the most pertinent. On PB at least.
Now there will be a multitude of factors affecting this but it does make me wonder whether the single market has been good for the UK economy.
Do I have all the answers to this ? Certainly not, I don't even have all the questions. But I'm certain there is a major problem here and its a problem many other PBers are in denial about.
Do all other countries in the EU have trade deficits, or do some have trade surpluses? If the latter (hint, yes), then it shows that the single market isn't the problem, and that we have other internal issues to address.
There is nothing stopping us copying Germany's success wrt trade. And the EU isn't stopping us from getting there.
We are.
And that's a point I'm trying to get at.
The single market has led to different trade balances in different countries - it is having different effects per country.
So if it is having different effects then some of the effects must be positive and others negative.
Now that's not the fault of the single market nor of the countries which are experiencing more of the positive effects.
But it may be that countries that are experiencing negative effects are doing so because their economy, and wider society, are fundamentally unsuited to being in the single market with some other countries.
Now we could say "why don't we be more like Germany" but that's a lot easier said than done and I see no intention for this county (and especially its politicians) to live within its means or to focus more on wealth creation, increasing exports, improving productivity etc. And while I would love for all that to happen I'm not sure that even if we did that we would be more than a paler, weaker imitation of Germany.
So what I would like to see is some more fundamental research on whether the single market has been good for the UK rather than everyone assuming that ever freer trade is always the right strategy.
Now there will be a multitude of factors affecting this but it does make me wonder whether the single market has been good for the UK economy.
Do I have all the answers to this ? Certainly not, I don't even have all the questions. But I'm certain there is a major problem here and its a problem many other PBers are in denial about.
Jesus fucking Christ. There is a problem you believe which is a trade deficit with the EU. You have no idea if it is a problem you just think it is and you think that if we leave the EU you can solve it. And you keep on banging on about it as if leaving the EU is the silver bullet and yet by your own admission you have no fucking clue whether or why or how it is a problem and what would solve it?
How do you think a trade deficit occurs? Because people here buy more stuff from abroad than people abroad buy stuff from us. There's a quick primer for you.
So how are you going to solve it by leaving the EU? Or FFS STFU with your trite "trade deficit" one liners.
The collapse in the £ after the Brexit vote has surely made it worse, at least in the short to medium term.
A collapse in the pound, ceteris paribus, would make it better as our goods would become cheaper to the furriners, while there would be some degree of import substitution.
In the medium to long term, as and when production and consumption adjusts to the new rates. In the short term everything we are buying and importing from them becomes more expensive. Anyone who has been abroad recently will be well aware. Or indeed any wine drinker at home.
Which latter point is of course arguably the most pertinent. On PB at least.
And have people switched to beer, or English wine? I doubt it; the higher price might have marginally reduced consumption but it's a good example of inelastic demand and hence our BoP is worse.
Foreign holidays is an interesting example since (last year at least, aided by hot sunshine) there is evidence more people are staying at home.
25 labour mps from vote leaving constituencies write to Corbyn demanding an agreement to leave by the 31st October is supported
It does not take much to see Boris obtaining some technical change to the PD and passing a deal with the assistance of these mps. If it does happen TM will have been the architect
I think re BoJo keeping the base once he's in office: look to Trump. Did he build a wall? Did he repeal Obamacare? Did he heck. But his base loves him because he embodies, literally, what they want: a racist old white guy shouting at the kids on his lawn.
BoJo fulfils the same impulse for the little Englander, in their post colonial malaise. He sounds jolly good, and can certainly tell Johnny Foreigner and the Scotch where to get to, and he will stand astride the globe as leader of an international trading powerhouse! And if he only does the first part, well... that's all they really care about.
I think Gove is a decent bet at 7/2 (Ladbrokes) to get most votes in the 3rd ballot (excluding Johnson). He was 5 behind Hunt on the second ballot but I think he's a more likely beneficiary than Hunt to pick up Raab's backers. Boris seemed to be going wobbly on must leave on October 31st in the debate last night so might not get as many transfers from Raab.
You are trying to apply a rational decision making process to a race which we anticipate Boris Johnson's team will manipulate via the lending of votes. Throw in the fact that the betting markets themselves are thin and may well be manipulated and it seems a mug's game, at least until we get to the runoff part.
25 labour mps from vote leaving constituencies write to Corbyn demanding an agreement to leave by the 31st October is supported
It does not take much to see Boris obtaining some technical change to the PD and passing a deal with the assistance of these mps. If it does happen TM will have been the architect
So we should expect Boris's numbers to go down to help Stewart's rivals?
No, I think they will creep up - but by less than they would have done if a chunk had not voted tactically for Javid (to knock Stewart out) and for Hunt (to keep him ahead of Gove).
25 labour mps from vote leaving constituencies write to Corbyn demanding an agreement to leave by the 31st October is supported
It does not take much to see Boris obtaining some technical change to the PD and passing a deal with the assistance of these mps. If it does happen TM will have been the architect
The backlash against Labour in London and the south is going to be something to behold.
Now there will be a multitude of factors affecting this but it does make me wonder whether the single market has been good for the UK economy.
Do I have all the answers to this ? Certainly not, I don't even have all the questions. But I'm certain there is a major problem here and its a problem many other PBers are in denial about.
Do all other countries in the EU have trade deficits, or do some have trade surpluses? If the latter (hint, yes), then it shows that the single market isn't the problem, and that we have other internal issues to address.
There is nothing stopping us copying Germany's success wrt trade. And the EU isn't stopping us from getting there.
We are.
And that's a point I'm trying to get at.
The single market has led to different trade balances in different countries - it is having different effects per country.
So if it is having different effects then some of the effects must be positive and others negative.
Now that's not the fault of the single market nor of the countries which are experiencing more of the positive effects.
But it may be that countries that are experiencing negative effects are doing so because their economy, and wider society, are fundamentally unsuited to being in the single market with some other countries.
Now we could say "why don't we be more like Germany" but that's a lot easier said than done and I see no intention for this county (and especially its politicians) to live within its means or to focus more on wealth creation, increasing exports, improving productivity etc. And while I would love for all that to happen I'm not sure that even if we did that we would be more than a paler, weaker imitation of Germany.
So what I would like to see is some more fundamental research on whether the single market has been good for the UK rather than everyone assuming that ever freer trade is always the right strategy.
If we want to export more it ought to be pretty self evident (particularly to the party of business) that removing regulatory, administrative and tariff barriers is going to be a big help, and the opposite, not so much.
25 labour mps from vote leaving constituencies write to Corbyn demanding an agreement to leave by the 31st October is supported
It does not take much to see Boris obtaining some technical change to the PD and passing a deal with the assistance of these mps. If it does happen TM will have been the architect
She will even more have been the obstruction too.
I really do not care too much as long as Boris gets the WDA to pass by the 31st October
25 labour mps from vote leaving constituencies write to Corbyn demanding an agreement to leave by the 31st October is supported
It does not take much to see Boris obtaining some technical change to the PD and passing a deal with the assistance of these mps. If it does happen TM will have been the architect
The backlash against Labour in London and the south is going to be something to behold.
25 labour mps from vote leaving constituencies write to Corbyn demanding an agreement to leave by the 31st October is supported
It does not take much to see Boris obtaining some technical change to the PD and passing a deal with the assistance of these mps. If it does happen TM will have been the architect
She will even more have been the obstruction too.
I really do not care too much as long as Boris gets the WDA to pass by the 31st October
So long as it is a decent WDA that is renegotiated then I agree.
I think a WDA would have passed already by now in some form had May been ousted or resigned last year.
I think Gove is a decent bet at 7/2 (Ladbrokes) to get most votes in the 3rd ballot (excluding Johnson). He was 5 behind Hunt on the second ballot but I think he's a more likely beneficiary than Hunt to pick up Raab's backers. Boris seemed to be going wobbly on must leave on October 31st in the debate last night so might not get as many transfers from Raab.
I think people are projecting a lot onto each candidate (surely he must be better than X or not do Y or eventually accept Z). The only candidate who appears to be telling it like it is is getting hammered for his pains.
Really? I don’t think Rory really wants to win this election and unlike Leadsom I don’t think it’s his only chance
25 labour mps from vote leaving constituencies write to Corbyn demanding an agreement to leave by the 31st October is supported
It does not take much to see Boris obtaining some technical change to the PD and passing a deal with the assistance of these mps. If it does happen TM will have been the architect
She will even more have been the obstruction too.
I really do not care too much as long as Boris gets the WDA to pass by the 31st October
So long as it is a decent WDA that is renegotiated then I agree.
I think a WDA would have passed already by now in some form had May been ousted or resigned last year.
Her deal would have been on the statute now if she had not been so incapable of selling it
25 labour mps from vote leaving constituencies write to Corbyn demanding an agreement to leave by the 31st October is supported
It does not take much to see Boris obtaining some technical change to the PD and passing a deal with the assistance of these mps. If it does happen TM will have been the architect
She will even more have been the obstruction too.
I really do not care too much as long as Boris gets the WDA to pass by the 31st October
So long as it is a decent WDA that is renegotiated then I agree.
I think a WDA would have passed already by now in some form had May been ousted or resigned last year.
Her deal would have been on the statute now if she had not been so incapable of selling it
Indeed and it was patently obvious she was incapable 12 months ago. She should have lost the confidence motion.
25 labour mps from vote leaving constituencies write to Corbyn demanding an agreement to leave by the 31st October is supported
It does not take much to see Boris obtaining some technical change to the PD and passing a deal with the assistance of these mps. If it does happen TM will have been the architect
The backlash against Labour in London and the south is going to be something to behold.
I think that is unavoidable now for labour
Better it were done quickly. Those expecting the great Corbyn pivot moment will wait a long time, IMO. There are two things to note about Corbyn 1/ he is a longstanding eurosceptic; 2/ he never changes.
25 labour mps from vote leaving constituencies write to Corbyn demanding an agreement to leave by the 31st October is supported
It does not take much to see Boris obtaining some technical change to the PD and passing a deal with the assistance of these mps. If it does happen TM will have been the architect
She will even more have been the obstruction too.
I really do not care too much as long as Boris gets the WDA to pass by the 31st October
Expect him to seek to swap our short term political needs in exchange for giving the EU the upper hand in long term trade and financial advantages. His audience wont care less if there are fewer good jobs in the UK for decades as long as they can wave their Union Jack around victoriously.
25 labour mps from vote leaving constituencies write to Corbyn demanding an agreement to leave by the 31st October is supported
It does not take much to see Boris obtaining some technical change to the PD and passing a deal with the assistance of these mps. If it does happen TM will have been the architect
She will even more have been the obstruction too.
I really do not care too much as long as Boris gets the WDA to pass by the 31st October
So long as it is a decent WDA that is renegotiated then I agree.
I think a WDA would have passed already by now in some form had May been ousted or resigned last year.
Her deal would have been on the statute now if she had not been so incapable of selling it
Indeed and it was patently obvious she was incapable 12 months ago. She should have lost the confidence motion.
Of course she should. But then, we would have been robbed of the chance to point and laugh at those on here who told us she was therefore safe until this December!
I think Gove is a decent bet at 7/2 (Ladbrokes) to get most votes in the 3rd ballot (excluding Johnson). He was 5 behind Hunt on the second ballot but I think he's a more likely beneficiary than Hunt to pick up Raab's backers. Boris seemed to be going wobbly on must leave on October 31st in the debate last night so might not get as many transfers from Raab.
I think people are projecting a lot onto each candidate (surely he must be better than X or not do Y or eventually accept Z). The only candidate who appears to be telling it like it is is getting hammered for his pains.
Really? I don’t think Rory really wants to win this election and unlike Leadsom I don’t think it’s his only chance
Now there will be a multitude of factors affecting this but it does make me wonder whether the single market has been good for the UK economy.
Do I have all the answers to this ? Certainly not, I don't even have all the questions. But I'm certain there is a major problem here and its a problem many other PBers are in denial about.
Do all other countries in the EU have trade deficits, or do some have trade surpluses? If the latter (hint, yes), then it shows that the single market isn't the problem, and that we have other internal issues to address.
There is nothing stopping us copying Germany's success wrt trade. And the EU isn't stopping us from getting there.
We are.
And that's a point I'm trying to get at.
The single market has led to different trade balances in different countries - it is having different effects per country.
So if it is having different effects then some of the effects must be positive and others negative.
Now that's not the fault of the single market nor of the countries which are experiencing more of the positive effects.
But it may be that countries that are experiencing negative effects are doing so because their economy, and wider society, are fundamentally unsuited to being in the single market with some other countries.
Now we could say "why don't we be more like Germany" but that's a lot easier said than done and I see no intention for this county (and especially its politicians) to live within its means or to focus more on wealth creation, increasing exports, improving productivity etc. And while I would love for all that to happen I'm not sure that even if we did that we would be more than a paler, weaker imitation of Germany.
So what I would like to see is some more fundamental research on whether the single market has been good for the UK rather than everyone assuming that ever freer trade is always the right strategy.
If we want to export more it ought to be pretty self evident (particularly to the party of business) that removing regulatory, administrative and tariff barriers is going to be a big help, and the opposite, not so much.
So what happens if removing regulatory, administrative and tariff barriers leads to a larger increase in imports than it does in exports ?
Not because he's competent or trustworthy, but because he's perceived as popular.
The trouble is, I think the popularity of the amiable but untrustworthy buffoon is liable to evaporate more quickly than most other kinds of political popularity when the going gets rough.
Better it were done quickly. Those expecting the great Corbyn pivot moment will wait a long time, IMO. There are two things to note about Corbyn 1/ he is a longstanding eurosceptic; 2/ he never changes.
1. Block any Tory Brexit. 2. Thus force general election. 3. Offer Ref/Remain in the manifesto for that election. 4. Win it.
The trouble is, I think the popularity of the amiable but untrustworthy buffoon is liable to evaporate more quickly than most other kinds of political popularity when the going gets rough.
You might be right. Polling sub 20% doesn't much help with calm, considered political judgement though.
If they'd still been in a dull mid/upper 30%s situation, we might have seen more organised resistance to Boris.
The Raabites seem to be going very much for Boris, which isn't much of a surprise (see Guardian live blog). Perhaps the vote totals of the other contenders won't change much this time round.
Those who appear to share his low standards of personal morality appear to be rallying to him - Michael Fallon and Damian Green who were both casualties of the Sex Pests affair. Then there is Andrea Jenkyns who had a bastard before marrying a fellow Tory MP.
"... who had a bastard before marrying a fellow Tory MP."
The only bastard is you.
I assure you I was not born out of wedlock.
'Bastard' has many meanings. You are choosing to use a rather archaic one - and one which many of your co-religionists would disagree with. I chose to brand you with the everyday meaning.
The child is innocent. It is not his or her fault that the parents were not married when he was conceived. He should not be called derogatory names because of it. Ezekiel 18:19-20 comes to mind.
I agree totally that the child is innocent - and have said so on many occasions both on here and elsewhere. My condemnation is very much related to the parents - and the selfishness inherent in their conduct.
Better it were done quickly. Those expecting the great Corbyn pivot moment will wait a long time, IMO. There are two things to note about Corbyn 1/ he is a longstanding eurosceptic; 2/ he never changes.
1. Block any Tory Brexit. 2. Thus force general election. 3. Offer Ref/Remain in the manifesto for that election. 4. Win it.
This (IMO) is the Labour gameplan.
And I like it. Can't fault it actually.
26 labour mps do not like it. Sky now reporting on their letter and their demand to leave by the 31st October
Liz Truss on PM following Raab on WATO in outlining Boris' policy for him. We are leaving on October 31 no ifs no buts. The EU, faced with such.resolution will hastily fold, most likely. His refusal to be interviewed is allowing everyone to project their own views onto him. It is a Corbynite Brexit strategy.
Better it were done quickly. Those expecting the great Corbyn pivot moment will wait a long time, IMO. There are two things to note about Corbyn 1/ he is a longstanding eurosceptic; 2/ he never changes.
1. Block any Tory Brexit. 2. Thus force general election. 3. Offer Ref/Remain in the manifesto for that election. 4. Win it.
This (IMO) is the Labour gameplan.
And I like it. Can't fault it actually.
Agreed. And this is why I think Labour should be Favs for most seats in the next election. Their issues are easier to solve than the Tory's are. Or at least are largely within their control.
Now there will be a multitude of factors affecting this but it does make me wonder whether the single market has been good for the UK economy.
Do I have all the answers to this ? Certainly not, I don't even have all the questions. But I'm certain there is a major problem here and its a problem many other PBers are in denial about.
Jesus fucking Christ. There is a problem you believe which is a trade deficit with the EU. You have no idea if it is a problem you just think it is and you think that if we leave the EU you can solve it. And you keep on banging on about it as if leaving the EU is the silver bullet and yet by your own admission you have no fucking clue whether or why or how it is a problem and what would solve it?
How do you think a trade deficit occurs? Because people here buy more stuff from abroad than people abroad buy stuff from us. There's a quick primer for you.
So how are you going to solve it by leaving the EU? Or FFS STFU with your trite "trade deficit" one liners.
The collapse in the £ after the Brexit vote has surely made it worse, at least in the short to medium term.
Comments
So I don't accept your premise that it is the UK policy of free trade that has resulted in the trade deficits. It is possible that leaving the EU would narrow our trade deficit, but this would most likely be if it resulted in a major economic crash so that we simply could not afford the imports we are currently purchasing.
It's entirely possible that the trade deficit could worsen, if the countries we sell things to (like cars or pharmaceuticals) are more able to find other sources for those items than we are able to find domestic sources for some of the things that we buy (like food and oil/gas).
The child is innocent. It is not his or her fault that the parents were not married when he was conceived. He should not be called derogatory names because of it. Ezekiel 18:19-20 comes to mind.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/l87q/mret
whereas the trade deficit in goods with the non-EU has increased from £16bn in 1998 to £51bn in 2008 and then falling to £45bn in 2018.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/l87k/mret
Now there will be a multitude of factors affecting this but it does make me wonder whether the single market has been good for the UK economy.
Do I have all the answers to this ? Certainly not, I don't even have all the questions. But I'm certain there is a major problem here and its a problem many other PBers are in denial about.
I think the difference with Trump is that Boris would see serious criticism from the ERG/Farage on his side of the political divide, whereas the GOP and Conservative media have mostly stayed loyal to Trump because he has delivered on things like Supreme Court justices. What is Johnson going to do to keep Baker/Francois/Farage happy?
https://twitter.com/MalcolmNance/status/1140778575869685760
If Stewart is knocked out this round, who would Ken Clarke vote for in the next round?
I assume Javid. And once Javid is out? Hunt?
How do you think a trade deficit occurs? Because people here buy more stuff from abroad than people abroad buy stuff from us. There's a quick primer for you.
So how are you going to solve it by leaving the EU? Or FFS STFU with your trite "trade deficit" one liners.
You don't get that from the Donald.
There is nothing stopping us copying Germany's success wrt trade. And the EU isn't stopping us from getting there.
We are.
Is Rory
(1) so useless/weird/crypto-socialist that Johnson would thrash him in the members' ballot or
(2) such a big threat that the Bexiteers' first priority is to stop him getting there?
But I've given up hope that the British people in general or British politicians in particular are ever voluntarily going to live within their means.
It is for that reason that I'm a supporter of a lower value for Sterling and for the radical change which Brexit could bring.
Likewise I would be more supportive of the reduction of carbon emissions if that meant less over-consumption and tariffs on imports from higher polluting countries.
He doesn't read reports. He already knows best.
Maybe performance was less important than impression.
However: the race is about who comes PM, both immediately and in any future GE. If Conservative MPs had any sense, then the latter would be a very important factor in their thinking. Their aim has to be to get as large a majority as possible, and definitely improve on the minority government they have.
Therefore looking at what other party's voters think is very important - as the Conservative Party needs as many of them as possible.
2. is an overstatement. Of course the LibDems bounced back hardest in areas of past strength - which have the organisation and voter memory - but the reason they were able to do so well was significantly down to Brexit. Ask anyone in Chelmsford, or indeed most of Surrey
6. is somewhat complacent - the Euro election pattern doesn't need to be replicated in full for the two old parties to take a significant hit
7. may be right, but it's a question of the damage already being done rather than the opportunity not having been there in the first place, as the 2017 GE demonstrated
8. ditto. That your positioning is wrong doesn't necessarily mean a change is beneficial, since the people unhappy with the change are generally more willing to vote elsewhere than those pleased are to switch to you.
The single market has led to different trade balances in different countries - it is having different effects per country.
So if it is having different effects then some of the effects must be positive and others negative.
Now that's not the fault of the single market nor of the countries which are experiencing more of the positive effects.
But it may be that countries that are experiencing negative effects are doing so because their economy, and wider society, are fundamentally unsuited to being in the single market with some other countries.
Now we could say "why don't we be more like Germany" but that's a lot easier said than done and I see no intention for this county (and especially its politicians) to live within its means or to focus more on wealth creation, increasing exports, improving productivity etc. And while I would love for all that to happen I'm not sure that even if we did that we would be more than a paler, weaker imitation of Germany.
So what I would like to see is some more fundamental research on whether the single market has been good for the UK rather than everyone assuming that ever freer trade is always the right strategy.
Foreign holidays is an interesting example since (last year at least, aided by hot sunshine) there is evidence more people are staying at home.
Annoying individual but weirdly effective.
It does not take much to see Boris obtaining some technical change to the PD and passing a deal with the assistance of these mps. If it does happen TM will have been the architect
Send Liam Fox to Neptune. What is not to like?
Or maybe it was just with one of its moons, I forget.
What the fuck am I supposed to do with that information.
I think a WDA would have passed already by now in some form had May been ousted or resigned last year.
This is guesswork obviously - I do not have inside info.
Will do a prediction for the 5 totals shortly - see if I'm on or off beam.
The problem is that it’s not a single bottle that needs to be drunk in 18 minutes it’s a case (or 3)
Clearly I'm underestimating "Fergie Time" as it always appeared to be much longer !!
Come on Ken Clarke ... off to vote ....
If he achieves that I will retract a great deal of what I have said about him.
The trouble is, I think the popularity of the amiable but untrustworthy buffoon is liable to evaporate more quickly than most other kinds of political popularity when the going gets rough.
Rory could yet survive this round....
2. Thus force general election.
3. Offer Ref/Remain in the manifesto for that election.
4. Win it.
This (IMO) is the Labour gameplan.
And I like it. Can't fault it actually.
If they'd still been in a dull mid/upper 30%s situation, we might have seen more organised resistance to Boris.
It is a Corbynite Brexit strategy.
The UK balance of payments deficit:
2013 £90bn
2014 £91bn
2015 £93bn
2016 £103bn
2017 £68bn
2018 £82bn
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp