Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.
Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader
Boris is on a 3 month contract to 31st October.
Deliver or be toast.
He hasn't given a scrap of evidence as to how he is going to achieve that. Not a scrap. Just the usual bluster and vacuous rubbish.
While that's true, MPs are only human and the "usual bluster and vacuous rubbish" might be enough for them.
You mean to pass Theresa May's deal or her deal with a couple of words altered?
He won't get No Deal through Parliament, at least I don't think so.
He won't have time properly to alter the Withdrawal Agreement.
He hasn't said anything except 'it has to happen by 31st October.'
As TGOF states, it's baffling how he is defying gravity. If he comes up against Stewart in the final two he's going to get pulled apart.
Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.
Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader
Your loyalty to Johnson is touching. The problem is for him is that there is a reasonable number of natural Conservative voters who in a GE would vote for Satan himself to spite the Great Charlatan. I will never vote Conservative again if he leads the Party. To do so would betray almost every principle I have.
I think that's why Boris is popular - unlike May he is on a 3 month contract to 31st October.
Deliver or be toast.
The 1922 postman will be struggling on November 1st if we are still in.
And that would achieve what precisely? Another election where another fantasist lies to the ERG and they believe him/her instead of the latest PM? On and on we go until the ERG grow up and face reality.
Broken record=on. This is why we still need a commission on the shape of Brexit, if only to get the ERG to a consensus rather than one member, one unicorn system operating now.
Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.
Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader
And Boris's support from leavers does not mean any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader - especially when he fails to deliver the Brexit so many of them want.
It does as the polling shows, Boris is the only Tory to win a majority on his Brexit Deal or No Deal ticket.
Under Rory the Brexit Party overtake the Tories and the Tories trail the LDs and Labour too.
Rory would have more chance becoming PM as LD leader than Tory leader
This all comes down to the central lie of the leave campaigns in the referendum, which means that 'Brexit' now means different things to different people. These have slowly converged into two main camps:
1) The Philip Thompson / Farage 'let the country burn' hard Brexit. 2) A deal. May's deal in effect if not in name.
No attempts have been made to bring these two camps together. If we are to have Brexit, then the waveforms have to collapse and one chosen. And that will p*ss off the other sizeable segment.
Boris, like Labour, is currently believing in Schrodinger's Brexit. That is not a sustainable position in the medium term (i.e. beyond September).
What is more absurd is that the let the country burn group will not be happy even if their path is chosen. It will have been delivered by the wrong people who didnt believe hard enough, were too soft, and we still have foreigners here. They will be impossible to keep on side, even for a PM who does exactly what they ask for.
The only non- bonkers candidate is Stewart (Hunt finally gave in/came out last night for no deal). And we know Stewart will likely exit this afternoon.
Everyone else has avowed they will take us out without a deal so that means either they are being disingenuous and they know they are being disingenuous or we leave without a deal.
If the former, a deception on an extraordinary scale is taking place; if the latter then severe economic dislocation looms.
Is this really where the UK is right now? Unbefuckinglievable.
Raab on WATO backing Boris and helpfully outlining Boris' plan for him. Which is Leave on WTO rules on Oct 31. And an electoral pact with Farage... Fortunately Boris isn't doing interviews, so we won't find out whether he demurs.
. Some body language expert said Rory should have put one leg on the ground and the other on the cross spar rather than trying to stand on the floor and sit on the seat at the same time.
I don't think that will be in his behest to grant.
Tomorrow we'll know the Brecon & Radnor recall petition result. If we have a by-election then I think the LibDems will take the seat.
The tory majority even with the DUP on board is heading into negative territory. Boris is highly divisive even on his own benches. A successful Vote of No Confidence is only a matter of time.
Which is why Boris will go to the country on a Brexit or Bust General Election.
You may be right. I see the logic. Yes, I can easily picture that snap autumn Brexit election. It is what I hope does happen - and that it GTTO, obviously.
However, IMO, what is more likely is that Johnson bottles it. He opts for fudge and delay and he gets away with it because there will be no stomach in the party either to replace him or to fight an election.
Key to my thinking is that the Labour pivot to unambiguous Ref/Remain is coming - and that when it does the polls will show that Johnson going to the country will probably lead to defeat.
So he will muddle on hoping for something to turn up. Or perhaps he will surprise on the upside and be more purposeful. Perhaps he will even manage to get the WA through eventually. I would not rule that out.
The only non- bonkers candidate is Stewart (Hunt finally gave in/came out last night for no deal). And we know Stewart will likely exit this afternoon.
Everyone else has avowed they will take us out without a deal so that means either they are being disingenuous and they know they are being disingenuous or we leave without a deal.
If the former, a deception on an extraordinary scale is taking place; if the latter then severe economic dislocation looms.
Is this really where the UK is right now? Unbefuckinglievable.
Yes it is. The majority of Conservative and Unionist Party members are prepared to trash the union, the economy and the party to win the Brexit prize. Nobody can tell me what the prize would be having trashed the union the economy and the party - but it's definitely better than now apparently.
Somebody needs to call these people out for being fucking atupid
Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.
Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader
And Boris's support from leavers does not mean any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader - especially when he fails to deliver the Brexit so many of them want.
It does as the polling shows, Boris is the only Tory to win a majority on his Brexit Deal or No Deal ticket.
Under Rory the Brexit Party overtake the Tories and the Tories trail the LDs and Labour too.
Rory would have more chance becoming PM as LD leader than Tory leader
This all comes down to the central lie of the leave campaigns in the referendum, which means that 'Brexit' now means different things to different people. These have slowly converged into two main camps:
1) The Philip Thompson / Farage 'let the country burn' hard Brexit. 2) A deal. May's deal in effect if not in name.
No attempts have been made to bring these two camps together. If we are to have Brexit, then the waveforms have to collapse and one chosen. And that will p*ss off the other sizeable segment.
Boris, like Labour, is currently believing in Schrodinger's Brexit. That is not a sustainable position in the medium term (i.e. beyond September).
What is more absurd is that the let the country burn group will not be happy even if their path is chosen. It will have been delivered by the wrong people who didnt believe hard enough, were too soft, and we still have foreigners here. They will be impossible to keep on side, even for a PM who does exactly what they ask for.
Shall I say it?
Shall I?
Oh, okay then.
The leavers' mantra: "It's all someone else's fault!
So, Raab backing Bozza, cos he'll leave by October 31. Do they ever learn?
Raab stood as he would even prorugue Parliament to enforce No Deal, Boris has committed to leave by the end of October unlike Hint, Gove and Rory so it had to be Boris. Javid has also said no further extension but was a Remainer but I suspect some Raab votes will go to Javid this evening
It rather more obviously displays the dangers of giving the choice to the members. Who now still thinks choosing IDS over Clarke was even remotely sensible ?
Isn't IDS still the Tory members' 3rd favourite leader after Winston and Hilda?!
True. It's hard to hold in your head just how weird is the Conservative selectorate.
Kinabalu, you may be right. But if Johnson does that I really do think it will be curtains for the tories for a generation. Without a working majority he will continually lose votes in the HoC, which doesn't look good at the best of times and this isn't one of those. It will make the long slow slide of Major's '92-'97 Gov't look positively stable.
He's such a divisive figure anyway that I can see a VONC succeeding even with a few Labour mavericks and independents voting with Boris.
We really are heading into a blind alley. And the Conservative party membership are at the wheel.
I think his one and only hope is to strike instantly in his honeymoon, go for the jugular on Corbyn (use Michael Gove for this), make it a Brexit or Bust election and he 'might' just win a majority. Otherwise it's curtains.
The only non- bonkers candidate is Stewart (Hunt finally gave in/came out last night for no deal). And we know Stewart will likely exit this afternoon.
Everyone else has avowed they will take us out without a deal so that means either they are being disingenuous and they know they are being disingenuous or we leave without a deal.
If the former, a deception on an extraordinary scale is taking place; if the latter then severe economic dislocation looms.
Is this really where the UK is right now? Unbefuckinglievable.
That plan only works if Boris has a majority in Parliament otherwise he will never be PM.
The only non- bonkers candidate is Stewart (Hunt finally gave in/came out last night for no deal). And we know Stewart will likely exit this afternoon.
Everyone else has avowed they will take us out without a deal so that means either they are being disingenuous and they know they are being disingenuous or we leave without a deal.
If the former, a deception on an extraordinary scale is taking place; if the latter then severe economic dislocation looms.
Is this really where the UK is right now? Unbefuckinglievable.
Yes it is. The majority of Conservative and Unionist Party members are prepared to trash the union, the economy and the party to win the Brexit prize. Nobody can tell me what the prize would be having trashed the union the economy and the party - but it's definitely better than now apparently.
Somebody needs to call these people out for being fucking atupid
I agree. Fortunately for them, Labour are just as fucking stupid.
It rather more obviously displays the dangers of giving the choice to the members. Who now still thinks choosing IDS over Clarke was even remotely sensible ?
Isn't IDS still the Tory members' 3rd favourite leader after Winston and Hilda?!
True. It's hard to hold in your head just how weird is the Conservative selectorate.
I hate to admit it, but Dominic Raab's appalling solution was probably the only alternative to a referendum or General Election. At least he came up with a workable idea.
The only non- bonkers candidate is Stewart (Hunt finally gave in/came out last night for no deal). And we know Stewart will likely exit this afternoon.
Everyone else has avowed they will take us out without a deal so that means either they are being disingenuous and they know they are being disingenuous or we leave without a deal.
If the former, a deception on an extraordinary scale is taking place; if the latter then severe economic dislocation looms.
Is this really where the UK is right now? Unbefuckinglievable.
That plan only works if Boris has a majority in Parliament otherwise he will never be PM.
Well that comes down to @Mysticrose's point about a GE being ineluctable. But what then? Who wins that and how does it change things unless of course we have 50 new TBP MPs.
As @RochdalePioneers keeps asking - and all for what? Although as a Leave voter he/she was instrumental in getting us here, to this exact position.
I hate to admit it, but Dominic Raab's appalling solution was probably the only alternative to a referendum or General Election. At least he came up with a workable idea.
That was my point - ridiculous it may have been but for me his and Stewart's positions were the only authentic ones.
So, Raab backing Bozza, cos he'll leave by October 31. Do they ever learn?
Raab stood as he would even prorugue Parliament to enforce No Deal, Boris has committed to leave by the end of October unlike Hint, Gove and Rory so it had to be Boris. Javid has also said no further extension but was a Remainer but I suspect some Raab votes will go to Javid this evening
The only non- bonkers candidate is Stewart (Hunt finally gave in/came out last night for no deal). And we know Stewart will likely exit this afternoon.
Everyone else has avowed they will take us out without a deal so that means either they are being disingenuous and they know they are being disingenuous or we leave without a deal.
If the former, a deception on an extraordinary scale is taking place; if the latter then severe economic dislocation looms.
Is this really where the UK is right now? Unbefuckinglievable.
That plan only works if Boris has a majority in Parliament otherwise he will never be PM.
Well that comes down to @Mysticrose's point about a GE being ineluctable. But what then? Who wins that and how does it change things unless of course we have 50 new TBP MPs.
As @RochdalePioneers keeps asking - and all for what? Although as a Leave voter he/she was instrumental in getting us here, to this exact position.
Any election means Boris will be found out - remember May lost a 20%+ lead. Boris only has a max 7% lead (and I don't believe that) before it begins - and against Boris tactical voting will reach a whole new level...
Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.
Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader
Your loyalty to Johnson is touching. The problem is for him is that there is a reasonable number of natural Conservative voters who in a GE would vote for Satan himself to spite the Great Charlatan. I will never vote Conservative again if he leads the Party. To do so would betray almost every principle I have.
I think that's why Boris is popular - unlike May he is on a 3 month contract to 31st October.
Deliver or be toast.
The 1922 postman will be struggling on November 1st if we are still in.
Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.
Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader
Your loyalty to Johnson is touching. The problem is for him is that there is a reasonable number of natural Conservative voters who in a GE would vote for Satan himself to spite the Great Charlatan. I will never vote Conservative again if he leads the Party. To do so would betray almost every principle I have.
I think that's why Boris is popular - unlike May he is on a 3 month contract to 31st October.
Deliver or be toast.
The 1922 postman will be struggling on November 1st if we are still in.
Thank the Lord that Sir Graham Brady Old Lady has quit. It would be too much for him!
The only non- bonkers candidate is Stewart (Hunt finally gave in/came out last night for no deal). And we know Stewart will likely exit this afternoon.
Everyone else has avowed they will take us out without a deal so that means either they are being disingenuous and they know they are being disingenuous or we leave without a deal.
If the former, a deception on an extraordinary scale is taking place; if the latter then severe economic dislocation looms.
Is this really where the UK is right now? Unbefuckinglievable.
That plan only works if Boris has a majority in Parliament otherwise he will never be PM.
Well that comes down to @Mysticrose's point about a GE being ineluctable. But what then? Who wins that and how does it change things unless of course we have 50 new TBP MPs.
As @RochdalePioneers keeps asking - and all for what? Although as a Leave voter he/she was instrumental in getting us here, to this exact position.
Any election means Boris will be found out - remember May lost a 20%+ lead. Boris only has a max 7% lead before it begins - and against Boris tactical voting will reach a whole new level...
Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.
Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader
Your loyalty to Johnson is touching. The problem is for him is that there is a reasonable number of natural Conservative voters who in a GE would vote for Satan himself to spite the Great Charlatan. I will never vote Conservative again if he leads the Party. To do so would betray almost every principle I have.
I think that's why Boris is popular - unlike May he is on a 3 month contract to 31st October.
Deliver or be toast.
The 1922 postman will be struggling on November 1st if we are still in.
Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.
Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader
Your loyalty to Johnson is touching. The problem is for him is that there is a reasonable number of natural Conservative voters who in a GE would vote for Satan himself to spite the Great Charlatan. I will never vote Conservative again if he leads the Party. To do so would betray almost every principle I have.
I think that's why Boris is popular - unlike May he is on a 3 month contract to 31st October.
Deliver or be toast.
The 1922 postman will be struggling on November 1st if we are still in.
Thank the Lord that Sir Graham Brady Old Lady has quit. It would be too much for him!
In ordinary times, the ability to appeal to those who do not currently vote Conservative would be considered an asset. Such is not the case now. The Conservatives have different priorities.
In the final round of voting, what happens if there is a tie (for second place)? Do they just revote again or would they send 3 candidates to the membership?
We aren't sure. In past contests a tie has had a second ballot of just those two candidates and if there is another tie they both are eliminated (so in your example 1st place would just win). But the 1922 Committee write new rules each time (hence the 5%/10% thresholds introduced this time at ballots 1/2) and they haven't published them in full.
I expect they would make it up on the spot and decide to have a further ballot after 24 hours with just the tied candidates to try and get a clear 2nd place. Avoiding a members ballot on such a technicality would be very unfortunate.
(It clearly wouldn't be fair - in the context of the overall mechanism - to have a ballot of just the tied candidates.)
Cheers, didn't realise this had been clarified.
Wait: What if there is a tie, and then on the re-run there is a tie between two different candidates? How *precisely* is Rule 26 worded?
Thanks both. So if I have understood correctly, technically you could get Boris winning on the first vote, with say Gove and Hunt tying, but then Boris being eliminated as in the revote he ends up with less than the other two (not saying its likely of course, but crazy how its even possible)
The only non- bonkers candidate is Stewart (Hunt finally gave in/came out last night for no deal). And we know Stewart will likely exit this afternoon.
Everyone else has avowed they will take us out without a deal so that means either they are being disingenuous and they know they are being disingenuous or we leave without a deal.
If the former, a deception on an extraordinary scale is taking place; if the latter then severe economic dislocation looms.
Is this really where the UK is right now? Unbefuckinglievable.
That plan only works if Boris has a majority in Parliament otherwise he will never be PM.
Well that comes down to @Mysticrose's point about a GE being ineluctable. But what then? Who wins that and how does it change things unless of course we have 50 new TBP MPs.
As @RochdalePioneers keeps asking - and all for what? Although as a Leave voter he/she was instrumental in getting us here, to this exact position.
Any election means Boris will be found out - remember May lost a 20%+ lead. Boris only has a max 7% lead before it begins - and against Boris tactical voting will reach a whole new level...
yeah but as might it also against Jezza.
I suspect this election will be about 1 thing - it's a second referendum with added risk and stupidity. Yes people may be holding their nose and voting for Jezza but it's highly unlikely Labour will win a majority which would reign him in a bit.
Without mishap? Saj bounced Boris into conceding an inquiry into Islamophobia (which is probably why his supporters threw up the smokescreen about the questioners -- and the bloody fools at the BBC gave them more than enough ammunition and it has taken on a life of its own).
Boris also rowed back from his previous pledges of income tax cuts for rich people and backbench MPs, and even 31/10 is looking dicey.
Whether it matters is another question entirely. Things that probably ought to matter often turn out not to.
Boris lost the debate. Boris is still the best known and most charismatic candidate. You choose.
He was dreadful of course. But what I meant was that he did not do himself serious damage in respect of the only thing he is concerned about at this point - becoming PM.
In a general election he would be 'trying harder' in the sense of making a positive effort to attract the millions of voters who are not members of the Tory Party.
In ordinary times, the ability to appeal to those who do not currently vote Conservative would be considered an asset. Such is not the case now. The Conservatives have different priorities.
Erm, isn't that Boris's primary (perceived) appeal at present?
Kinabalu, you may be right. But if Johnson does that I really do think it will be curtains for the tories for a generation. Without a working majority he will continually lose votes in the HoC, which doesn't look good at the best of times and this isn't one of those. It will make the long slow slide of Major's '92-'97 Gov't look positively stable.
He's such a divisive figure anyway that I can see a VONC succeeding even with a few Labour mavericks and independents voting with Boris.
We really are heading into a blind alley. And the Conservative party membership are at the wheel.
I think his one and only hope is to strike instantly in his honeymoon, go for the jugular on Corbyn (use Michael Gove for this), make it a Brexit or Bust election and he 'might' just win a majority. Otherwise it's curtains.
You have very nearly convinced me. I am about as close to being convinced as it is possible to be without being totally convinced.
Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.
Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader
Your loyalty to Johnson is touching. The problem is for him is that there is a reasonable number of natural Conservative voters who in a GE would vote for Satan himself to spite the Great Charlatan. I will never vote Conservative again if he leads the Party. To do so would betray almost every principle I have.
I think that's why Boris is popular - unlike May he is on a 3 month contract to 31st October.
Deliver or be toast.
The 1922 postman will be struggling on November 1st if we are still in.
Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.
Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader
Your loyalty to Johnson is touching. The problem is for him is that there is a reasonable number of natural Conservative voters who in a GE would vote for Satan himself to spite the Great Charlatan. I will never vote Conservative again if he leads the Party. To do so would betray almost every principle I have.
I think that's why Boris is popular - unlike May he is on a 3 month contract to 31st October.
Deliver or be toast.
The 1922 postman will be struggling on November 1st if we are still in.
Thank the Lord that Sir Graham Brady Old Lady has quit. It would be too much for him!
I don't think he has quit.
Brady Old Lady has been replaced by Cheryl Gillan – maybe just temporarily then?
In ordinary times, the ability to appeal to those who do not currently vote Conservative would be considered an asset. Such is not the case now. The Conservatives have different priorities.
Erm, isn't that Boris's primary (perceived) appeal at present?
No, his primary perceived appeal is that the Tory rank and file love him.
In ordinary times, the ability to appeal to those who do not currently vote Conservative would be considered an asset. Such is not the case now. The Conservatives have different priorities.
Erm, isn't that Boris's primary (perceived) appeal at present?
No, his primary perceived appeal is that the Tory rank and file love him.
The only non- bonkers candidate is Stewart (Hunt finally gave in/came out last night for no deal). And we know Stewart will likely exit this afternoon.
Everyone else has avowed they will take us out without a deal so that means either they are being disingenuous and they know they are being disingenuous or we leave without a deal.
If the former, a deception on an extraordinary scale is taking place; if the latter then severe economic dislocation looms.
Is this really where the UK is right now? Unbefuckinglievable.
Yes
But look on the bright side. At least the Tory party will be destroyed.
Kinabalu, you may be right. But if Johnson does that I really do think it will be curtains for the tories for a generation. Without a working majority he will continually lose votes in the HoC, which doesn't look good at the best of times and this isn't one of those. It will make the long slow slide of Major's '92-'97 Gov't look positively stable.
He's such a divisive figure anyway that I can see a VONC succeeding even with a few Labour mavericks and independents voting with Boris.
We really are heading into a blind alley. And the Conservative party membership are at the wheel.
I think his one and only hope is to strike instantly in his honeymoon, go for the jugular on Corbyn (use Michael Gove for this), make it a Brexit or Bust election and he 'might' just win a majority. Otherwise it's curtains.
According to Wikipedia George Canning currently holds the record for the shortest tenure as prime minister - 119 days.
Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.
Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader
Of course, conversely, if a candidate only appeals to Tory voters of 2017 and no Labour, LD, Remain, Other voters would consider them... then unless they get bloody close to 100% of those former voters, they certainly lose a General Election. If Boris gets 50% of Tory voters from 2017, he gets 6.8 million votes, minus however many have died or emigrated since the previous election. Call it a 6 million vote strategy.
Fishing in a restricted pool will always restrict your result.
In ordinary times, the ability to appeal to those who do not currently vote Conservative would be considered an asset. Such is not the case now. The Conservatives have different priorities.
Erm, isn't that Boris's primary (perceived) appeal at present?
No, his primary perceived appeal is that the Tory rank and file love him.
I see that angle too. But I think "winning back votes from Farage" is the bigger reason for the quantity of MP support.
The only non- bonkers candidate is Stewart (Hunt finally gave in/came out last night for no deal). And we know Stewart will likely exit this afternoon.
Everyone else has avowed they will take us out without a deal so that means either they are being disingenuous and they know they are being disingenuous or we leave without a deal.
If the former, a deception on an extraordinary scale is taking place; if the latter then severe economic dislocation looms.
Is this really where the UK is right now? Unbefuckinglievable.
That plan only works if Boris has a majority in Parliament otherwise he will never be PM.
Well that comes down to @Mysticrose's point about a GE being ineluctable. But what then? Who wins that and how does it change things unless of course we have 50 new TBP MPs.
As @RochdalePioneers keeps asking - and all for what? Although as a Leave voter he/she was instrumental in getting us here, to this exact position.
Mea Culpa Mea Maxima Culpa. Though in my defence the debates at the time were over exit to FTA or Norway or various other options were we leave TO something. I favoured the exit to Norway/EEA solution and still believe it could have been good.
But now? We don't even have project fear being parroted. Tory members know Brexit will be a disaster. And they don't care because it will all be worth it. Worth what?
Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.
Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader
Your loyalty to Johnson is touching. The problem is for him is that there is a reasonable number of natural Conservative voters who in a GE would vote for Satan himself to spite the Great Charlatan. I will never vote Conservative again if he leads the Party. To do so would betray almost every principle I have.
Well go to the LDs then, we will win without you
Just like the Euro elections? Both big parties seem to be locked in a purity spiral. FPTP catches up with everyone in the end.
Over 50% of 2017 Tories who voted voted Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections, only 12% voted LD
Nevertheless more recent research identified that very many of those people also voted UKIP in the 2014 Euros. Actual Tory vote losses Euro-election to Euro-election were heaviest to the LibDems.
So, Raab backing Bozza, cos he'll leave by October 31. Do they ever learn?
I know. It's clear as day that Johnson will extend with the EU and continue to faff around well into 2020 and very possibly beyond.
I don't think that will be in his behest to grant.
Tomorrow we'll know the Brecon & Radnor recall petition result. If we have a by-election then I think the LibDems will take the seat.
The tory majority even with the DUP on board is heading into negative territory. Boris is highly divisive even on his own benches. A successful Vote of No Confidence is only a matter of time.
Which is why Boris will go to the country on a Brexit or Bust General Election.
Another thing he promised not to do during the debate.
Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.
Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader
Your loyalty to Johnson is touching. The problem is for him is that there is a reasonable number of natural Conservative voters who in a GE would vote for Satan himself to spite the Great Charlatan. I will never vote Conservative again if he leads the Party. To do so would betray almost every principle I have.
Well go to the LDs then, we will win without you
If you keep pushing people away without replacing them from another source (other voters - and your stance has been that candidates that appeal to other voters are a bad idea, anyway), then no. You won't. It's a fairly inescapable logical conclusion.
In the final round of voting, what happens if there is a tie (for second place)? Do they just revote again or would they send 3 candidates to the membership?
We aren't sure. In past contests a tie has had a second ballot of just those two candidates and if there is another tie they both are eliminated (so in your example 1st place would just win). But the 1922 Committee write new rules each time (hence the 5%/10% thresholds introduced this time at ballots 1/2) and they haven't published them in full.
I expect they would make it up on the spot and decide to have a further ballot after 24 hours with just the tied candidates to try and get a clear 2nd place. Avoiding a members ballot on such a technicality would be very unfortunate.
(It clearly wouldn't be fair - in the context of the overall mechanism - to have a ballot of just the tied candidates.)
Cheers, didn't realise this had been clarified.
Wait: What if there is a tie, and then on the re-run there is a tie between two different candidates? How *precisely* is Rule 26 worded?
Thanks both. So if I have understood correctly, technically you could get Boris winning on the first vote, with say Gove and Hunt tying, but then Boris being eliminated as in the revote he ends up with less than the other two (not saying its likely of course, but crazy how its even possible)
Possibly, we aren't sure how the rule is worded. It might say "If the same two candidates tie then both are eliminated" but it might just say "If there is a tie in the re-run ballot then both tied candidates are eliminated". Or worse, "If the tie situation persists through a second ballot then both candidates are are eliminated", which is genuinely ambiguous.
A related thought: Is the Betfair market on how many ballots there will be clear in the rules about whether a re-run ballot in the event of a tie counts?
In ordinary times, the ability to appeal to those who do not currently vote Conservative would be considered an asset. Such is not the case now. The Conservatives have different priorities.
Erm, isn't that Boris's primary (perceived) appeal at present?
It is. But it is based on the fact there are 2 of him. The hard Leaver Boris who will give the EU, and Johnny Foreigner generally, what for, and slash taxes for wealthy pensioners. He will win back those tempted by Farage. And the affable panel show host Boris. Who was pro-business, immigration and inclusive as London mayor. He will win back those drifting off to the Lib Dems. I surely don't need to point out the flaw in this arrangement.
Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.
Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader
Your loyalty to Johnson is touching. The problem is for him is that there is a reasonable number of natural Conservative voters who in a GE would vote for Satan himself to spite the Great Charlatan. I will never vote Conservative again if he leads the Party. To do so would betray almost every principle I have.
I think that's why Boris is popular - unlike May he is on a 3 month contract to 31st October.
Deliver or be toast.
The 1922 postman will be struggling on November 1st if we are still in.
Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.
Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader
Your loyalty to Johnson is touching. The problem is for him is that there is a reasonable number of natural Conservative voters who in a GE would vote for Satan himself to spite the Great Charlatan. I will never vote Conservative again if he leads the Party. To do so would betray almost every principle I have.
I think that's why Boris is popular - unlike May he is on a 3 month contract to 31st October.
Deliver or be toast.
The 1922 postman will be struggling on November 1st if we are still in.
Thank the Lord that Sir Graham Brady Old Lady has quit. It would be too much for him!
I don't think he has quit.
He did, as Chair of the '22, readying to launch the leadership bid that never came. Its why he isn't reading out the leader ballot results.
In ordinary times, the ability to appeal to those who do not currently vote Conservative would be considered an asset. Such is not the case now. The Conservatives have different priorities.
Erm, isn't that Boris's primary (perceived) appeal at present?
No, his primary perceived appeal is that the Tory rank and file love him.
I see that angle too. But I think "winning back votes from Farage" is the bigger reason for the quantity of MP support.
I think were an election to occur that winning back votes will be a mirage - unless he can stop Farage from standing (although the Electoral Commission may have done that today anyway asking for an details of where the money came from).
And even if Farage fails to stand I suspect Boris would fail to win a majority
Raab on WATO backing Boris and helpfully outlining Boris' plan for him. Which is Leave on WTO rules on Oct 31. And an electoral pact with Farage... Fortunately Boris isn't doing interviews, so we won't find out whether he demurs.
Well, that rather goes against collective PB's wisdom.
I didn't actually watch the debate, as both my son and I have caught the lurgy. So he's binge watching Tom and Jerry and Operation Ouch (they should really do a crossover), whilst I make carrot soup.
Was the 'debate' really as bad as people make out?
Worse. Even the bar stools they sat on were ridiculous.
There was a running joke in "Knowing me, knowing you", the Alan Partridge vehicle, where the staircase was deliberately made with the flat bits too long so you couldn't walk down them with one easy stride. In "The Day Today" Sinn Fein spokesmen had to inhale helium to remove gravitas. Yesterday the BBC held a debate with stools that made it impossible to sit in a dignified manner. There is a possibility it was some postmodern clapback to those shows.
Or they are just crap at these things, one of the two...
" ... flat bits ..."
They're called treads. The vertical bits are risers. Or maybe I'm talking a load of balusters - I'm newel to this post and might be in for a hard landing. I should perhaps curtail this now. I'll put a brave fascia to it ...
I know there are proper words for them, but I was on the tablet and I still haven't worked out how to cut-and-paste...
The only non- bonkers candidate is Stewart (Hunt finally gave in/came out last night for no deal). And we know Stewart will likely exit this afternoon.
Everyone else has avowed they will take us out without a deal so that means either they are being disingenuous and they know they are being disingenuous or we leave without a deal.
If the former, a deception on an extraordinary scale is taking place; if the latter then severe economic dislocation looms.
Is this really where the UK is right now? Unbefuckinglievable.
That plan only works if Boris has a majority in Parliament otherwise he will never be PM.
Well that comes down to @Mysticrose's point about a GE being ineluctable. But what then? Who wins that and how does it change things unless of course we have 50 new TBP MPs.
As @RochdalePioneers keeps asking - and all for what? Although as a Leave voter he/she was instrumental in getting us here, to this exact position.
Mea Culpa Mea Maxima Culpa. Though in my defence the debates at the time were over exit to FTA or Norway or various other options were we leave TO something. I favoured the exit to Norway/EEA solution and still believe it could have been good.
But now? We don't even have project fear being parroted. Tory members know Brexit will be a disaster. And they don't care because it will all be worth it. Worth what?
IN YOUR DEFENCE???!!!
Yes well who on earth would have foreseen this although as I keep on saying it should have been modelled as part of any Leaver's scenario analysis.
And as for Lab, even with Jezza's virulent anti-EUism it is those Lab voting Leave voters that prevent a full pivot to remain/ref.
Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.
Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader
Your loyalty to Johnson is touching. The problem is for him is that there is a reasonable number of natural Conservative voters who in a GE would vote for Satan himself to spite the Great Charlatan. I will never vote Conservative again if he leads the Party. To do so would betray almost every principle I have.
Evidently, some of the public like him. He's the only candidate who attracts more support than he repels, according to the Sunday Times poll.
The only non- bonkers candidate is Stewart (Hunt finally gave in/came out last night for no deal). And we know Stewart will likely exit this afternoon.
Everyone else has avowed they will take us out without a deal so that means either they are being disingenuous and they know they are being disingenuous or we leave without a deal.
If the former, a deception on an extraordinary scale is taking place; if the latter then severe economic dislocation looms.
Is this really where the UK is right now? Unbefuckinglievable.
That plan only works if Boris has a majority in Parliament otherwise he will never be PM.
Well that comes down to @Mysticrose's point about a GE being ineluctable. But what then? Who wins that and how does it change things unless of course we have 50 new TBP MPs.
As @RochdalePioneers keeps asking - and all for what? Although as a Leave voter he/she was instrumental in getting us here, to this exact position.
Any election means Boris will be found out - remember May lost a 20%+ lead. Boris only has a max 7% lead before it begins - and against Boris tactical voting will reach a whole new level...
yeah but as might it also against Jezza.
I suspect this election will be about 1 thing - it's a second referendum with added risk and stupidity. Yes people may be holding their nose and voting for Jezza but it's highly unlikely Labour will win a majority which would reign him in a bit.
Great British Bake off rules would be both go through but 2 eliminated next time.
Is that right though? I thought that if one of them had been 'star baker' previously then he or she got the nod. Favouring Rory in this case - since he 'won' the CH4 debate.
It's worth noting that the columns in the YouGov poll are 2017 vote.
Con got 43.5% (GB) in 2017. So Con 2017 voters are the key people who matter for Con next time. They are a very big pool.
Hardly anyone who voted Lab in 2017 is going to vote Con next time. So the views of these people are of almost no relevance to who is best placed to win Con the next GE.
In ordinary times, the ability to appeal to those who do not currently vote Conservative would be considered an asset. Such is not the case now. The Conservatives have different priorities.
Erm, isn't that Boris's primary (perceived) appeal at present?
Yes. The much maligned Tory membership will back Boris (who self consciously is taking care not quite to make guarantees about Brexit date purity at the moment) more because he is perceived as election winner than Brexit purist. There is a fairly high chance that Brexit could only happen, given that no-deal is both a necessary negotiation position and also a fantasy which won't happen, following an election giving sane deal Brexiteers a majority. For members who want Brexit and survival Boris may be their only chance. It's a slim one. Ultimately Remain is more likely, as Brexit is still like landing a helicopter on Rockall in a storm and Remain is like landing at Gatwick on a clear day - on condition that you don't mind destroying the Tory party in the process.
It's worth noting that the columns in the YouGov poll are 2017 vote.
Con got 43.5% (GB) in 2017. So Con 2017 voters are the key people who matter for Con next time. They are a very big pool.
Hardly anyone who voted Lab in 2017 is going to vote Con next time. So the views of these people are of almost no relevance to who is best placed to win Con the next GE.
Your loyalty to Johnson is touching. The problem is for him is that there is a reasonable number of natural Conservative voters who in a GE would vote for Satan himself to spite the Great Charlatan. I will never vote Conservative again if he leads the Party. To do so would betray almost every principle I have.
Raab on WATO backing Boris and helpfully outlining Boris' plan for him. Which is Leave on WTO rules on Oct 31. And an electoral pact with Farage... Fortunately Boris isn't doing interviews, so we won't find out whether he demurs.
"an electoral pact with Farage" should help...
... the LibDems.
Yep, that's the flaw in HY's rosy scenario. If Farage contests, the Tories lose. If Farage does a deal with the Tories, they risk a big counter-reaction by supping with the far right. The Tories only have a chance if Farage slips quietly away into the night (or meets with the bus).
Boris a clear second though and leads with both Tories and Leavers the basis of the coalition the Tories need to win the election.
Stewart leads with Labour, LD and Remain voters only as he is the most pro Remain candidate left, that does not mean many if any of them would actually vote Tory if he was Tory leader
Your loyalty to Johnson is touching. The problem is for him is that there is a reasonable number of natural Conservative voters who in a GE would vote for Satan himself to spite the Great Charlatan. I will never vote Conservative again if he leads the Party. To do so would betray almost every principle I have.
Well go to the LDs then, we will win without you
Just like the Euro elections? Both big parties seem to be locked in a purity spiral. FPTP catches up with everyone in the end.
Over 50% of 2017 Tories who voted voted Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections, only 12% voted LD
Nevertheless more recent research identified that very many of those people also voted UKIP in the 2014 Euros. Actual Tory vote losses Euro-election to Euro-election were heaviest to the LibDems.
Yes, and it's valuable research (and not very surprising when you think about it; it's just a bit counterintuitive considering the narrative - a lot of people have forgotten the state of politics in 2014).
But one of the reasons we got a majority in 2015 was winning back the UKIP vote from the Euros, assisted by the referendum pledge (which, it should be noted, was made prior to the 2014 Euros!)
Kinabalu, you may be right. But if Johnson does that I really do think it will be curtains for the tories for a generation. Without a working majority he will continually lose votes in the HoC, which doesn't look good at the best of times and this isn't one of those. It will make the long slow slide of Major's '92-'97 Gov't look positively stable.
He's such a divisive figure anyway that I can see a VONC succeeding even with a few Labour mavericks and independents voting with Boris.
We really are heading into a blind alley. And the Conservative party membership are at the wheel.
I think his one and only hope is to strike instantly in his honeymoon, go for the jugular on Corbyn (use Michael Gove for this), make it a Brexit or Bust election and he 'might' just win a majority. Otherwise it's curtains.
According to Wikipedia George Canning currently holds the record for the shortest tenure as prime minister - 119 days.
How can the Tory party even consider giving a man like Johnson a position once held by a man like George Canning?
Also: if any other industry's flagship product had deteriorated in quality over the last 200 years to the extent that Eton's has, it would be out of business.
I haven't watched any debates but Rory will never win. He looks wrong. Nobody's looked like him since Alec Douglas-Home, and he never faced an election.
OK, I'm one of the 'pick the prettiest woman' brigade, but he needs a face transplant and an injection of charisma.
If you're just looking for a blond airhead with big tits you're in luck.
I haven't watched any debates but Rory will never win. He looks wrong. Nobody's looked like him since Alec Douglas-Home, and he never faced an election.
OK, I'm one of the 'pick the prettiest woman' brigade, but he needs a face transplant and an injection of charisma.
If your just looking for a blond airhead with big tits you're in luck.
It's worth noting that the columns in the YouGov poll are 2017 vote.
Con got 43.5% (GB) in 2017. So Con 2017 voters are the key people who matter for Con next time. They are a very big pool.
Hardly anyone who voted Lab in 2017 is going to vote Con next time. So the views of these people are of almost no relevance to who is best placed to win Con the next GE.
And, as things stand, 45% or so of the voters support right wing parties. It's probably going to be easier for a Conservative leader to appeal to right wing voters than to appeal to left wing voters.
Kinabalu, you may be right. But if Johnson does that I really do think it will be curtains for the tories for a generation. Without a working majority he will continually lose votes in the HoC, which doesn't look good at the best of times and this isn't one of those. It will make the long slow slide of Major's '92-'97 Gov't look positively stable.
He's such a divisive figure anyway that I can see a VONC succeeding even with a few Labour mavericks and independents voting with Boris.
We really are heading into a blind alley. And the Conservative party membership are at the wheel.
I think his one and only hope is to strike instantly in his honeymoon, go for the jugular on Corbyn (use Michael Gove for this), make it a Brexit or Bust election and he 'might' just win a majority. Otherwise it's curtains.
No way that any Labour MPs would fail to vote for a VNOC - were they to fail to do so expulsion would follow. Difficult to see any Independents doing so either. Lady Hermon voted with the Government in the January VNOC but I don't get the impression she would be keen to prop up Boris.
I haven't watched any debates but Rory will never win. He looks wrong. Nobody's looked like him since Alec Douglas-Home, and he never faced an election.
OK, I'm one of the 'pick the prettiest woman' brigade, but he needs a face transplant and an injection of charisma.
If your just looking for a blond airhead with big tits you're in luck.
Penny isn't standing
Don't be sexist - the reference is clearly to Boris.
Kinabalu, you may be right. But if Johnson does that I really do think it will be curtains for the tories for a generation. Without a working majority he will continually lose votes in the HoC, which doesn't look good at the best of times and this isn't one of those. It will make the long slow slide of Major's '92-'97 Gov't look positively stable.
He's such a divisive figure anyway that I can see a VONC succeeding even with a few Labour mavericks and independents voting with Boris.
We really are heading into a blind alley. And the Conservative party membership are at the wheel.
I think his one and only hope is to strike instantly in his honeymoon, go for the jugular on Corbyn (use Michael Gove for this), make it a Brexit or Bust election and he 'might' just win a majority. Otherwise it's curtains.
According to Wikipedia George Canning currently holds the record for the shortest tenure as prime minister - 119 days.
How can the Tory party even consider giving a man like Johnson a position once held by a man like George Canning?
Raab on WATO backing Boris and helpfully outlining Boris' plan for him. Which is Leave on WTO rules on Oct 31. And an electoral pact with Farage... Fortunately Boris isn't doing interviews, so we won't find out whether he demurs.
"an electoral pact with Farage" should help...
... the LibDems.
Yep, that's the flaw in HY's rosy scenario. If Farage contests, the Tories lose. If Farage does a deal with the Tories, they risk a big counter-reaction by supping with the far right. The Tories only have a chance if Farage slips quietly away into the night (or meets with the bus).
Maybe a Boris routemaster could be the bus in question?
The only non- bonkers candidate is Stewart (Hunt finally gave in/came out last night for no deal). And we know Stewart will likely exit this afternoon.
Everyone else has avowed they will take us out without a deal so that means either they are being disingenuous and they know they are being disingenuous or we leave without a deal.
If the former, a deception on an extraordinary scale is taking place; if the latter then severe economic dislocation looms.
Is this really where the UK is right now? Unbefuckinglievable.
That plan only works if Boris has a majority in Parliament otherwise he will never be PM.
Well that comes down to @Mysticrose's point about a GE being ineluctable. But what then? Who wins that and how does it change things unless of course we have 50 new TBP MPs.
As @RochdalePioneers keeps asking - and all for what? Although as a Leave voter he/she was instrumental in getting us here, to this exact position.
Any election means Boris will be found out - remember May lost a 20%+ lead. Boris only has a max 7% lead before it begins - and against Boris tactical voting will reach a whole new level...
yeah but as might it also against Jezza.
I suspect this election will be about 1 thing - it's a second referendum with added risk and stupidity. Yes people may be holding their nose and voting for Jezza but it's highly unlikely Labour will win a majority which would reign him in a bit.
Ha ha - quite a risk to take though!
Compared to living through a No Deal brexit - personally I would take the risk...
If the very worst occurred I would at least have more time to escape to europe...
Surely the candidates have already attended Hustings with Tory MPs? If so, their performances there will likely carry more weight than anything that happened in that stupid TV debate!
It's all starting to remind me of the very ugliest days of Thatcher with her 'enemies within'. It's the right wing's way to power and always has been. At the moment it seems to centre round Guido and his tweet finder generals. Now he's got the noxious Gilligan on board no-one knows where it'll end.
Surely the candidates have already attended Hustings with Tory MPs? If so, their performances there will likely carry more weight than anything that happened in that stupid TV debate!
Tory MPs are keeping a close eye on the press and public reaction. They want to know they are aligning themselves with a winner and a popular one at that. Of course Boris had some of the popular appeal but that is being shed and MPs are clocking all the reaction to the public debates.
Kinabalu, you may be right. But if Johnson does that I really do think it will be curtains for the tories for a generation. Without a working majority he will continually lose votes in the HoC, which doesn't look good at the best of times and this isn't one of those. It will make the long slow slide of Major's '92-'97 Gov't look positively stable.
He's such a divisive figure anyway that I can see a VONC succeeding even with a few Labour mavericks and independents voting with Boris.
We really are heading into a blind alley. And the Conservative party membership are at the wheel.
I think his one and only hope is to strike instantly in his honeymoon, go for the jugular on Corbyn (use Michael Gove for this), make it a Brexit or Bust election and he 'might' just win a majority. Otherwise it's curtains.
According to Wikipedia George Canning currently holds the record for the shortest tenure as prime minister - 119 days.
How can the Tory party even consider giving a man like Johnson a position once held by a man like George Canning?
Isn't he the one who had a duel with Castlereagh?
Among other things. He was the most brilliant statesman of his era, most notably as foreign Secretary. Imagining him and Johnson occupying the same great offices of state is like considering that Trump occupies the same role as Washington or Lincoln. It is a reminder of how weak our current crop of politicians is.
Kinabalu, you may be right. But if Johnson does that I really do think it will be curtains for the tories for a generation. Without a working majority he will continually lose votes in the HoC, which doesn't look good at the best of times and this isn't one of those. It will make the long slow slide of Major's '92-'97 Gov't look positively stable.
He's such a divisive figure anyway that I can see a VONC succeeding even with a few Labour mavericks and independents voting with Boris.
We really are heading into a blind alley. And the Conservative party membership are at the wheel.
I think his one and only hope is to strike instantly in his honeymoon, go for the jugular on Corbyn (use Michael Gove for this), make it a Brexit or Bust election and he 'might' just win a majority. Otherwise it's curtains.
According to Wikipedia George Canning currently holds the record for the shortest tenure as prime minister - 119 days.
How can the Tory party even consider giving a man like Johnson a position once held by a man like George Canning?
Also: if any other industry's flagship product had deteriorated in quality over the last 200 years to the extent that Eton's has, it would be out of business.
The product has been diverted into other more profitable areas than public flagellation
Johnson can perhaps take inspiration from Vince Cable in that the latter became his party's leader after his public popularity had peaked but was nonetheless quite successful.
It raises doubts about the utility of such polls. I am a Rory fan and very much welcome his insertions of reality into the debate but he was poor last night as he himself has acknowledged. The format and infantile form of questioning encouraged banalities and that is not really his thing. This survey reflects the views that people had going in to the debate not coming out.
Comments
He won't get No Deal through Parliament, at least I don't think so.
He won't have time properly to alter the Withdrawal Agreement.
He hasn't said anything except 'it has to happen by 31st October.'
As TGOF states, it's baffling how he is defying gravity. If he comes up against Stewart in the final two he's going to get pulled apart.
The only non- bonkers candidate is Stewart (Hunt finally gave in/came out last night for no deal). And we know Stewart will likely exit this afternoon.
Everyone else has avowed they will take us out without a deal so that means either they are being disingenuous and they know they are being disingenuous or we leave without a deal.
If the former, a deception on an extraordinary scale is taking place; if the latter then severe economic dislocation looms.
Is this really where the UK is right now? Unbefuckinglievable.
Fortunately Boris isn't doing interviews, so we won't find out whether he demurs.
However, IMO, what is more likely is that Johnson bottles it. He opts for fudge and delay and he gets away with it because there will be no stomach in the party either to replace him or to fight an election.
Key to my thinking is that the Labour pivot to unambiguous Ref/Remain is coming - and that when it does the polls will show that Johnson going to the country will probably lead to defeat.
So he will muddle on hoping for something to turn up. Or perhaps he will surprise on the upside and be more purposeful. Perhaps he will even manage to get the WA through eventually. I would not rule that out.
Somebody needs to call these people out for being fucking atupid
Shall I?
Oh, okay then.
The leavers' mantra: "It's all someone else's fault!
He's such a divisive figure anyway that I can see a VONC succeeding even with a few Labour mavericks and independents voting with Boris.
We really are heading into a blind alley. And the Conservative party membership are at the wheel.
I think his one and only hope is to strike instantly in his honeymoon, go for the jugular on Corbyn (use Michael Gove for this), make it a Brexit or Bust election and he 'might' just win a majority. Otherwise it's curtains.
Stranger things have happened....
As @RochdalePioneers keeps asking - and all for what? Although as a Leave voter he/she was instrumental in getting us here, to this exact position.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1141324434298560512
In a general election he would be 'trying harder' in the sense of making a positive effort to attract the millions of voters who are not members of the Tory Party.
But look on the bright side. At least the Tory party will be destroyed.
And under Corbyn we'll be best mates with Cuba.
Fishing in a restricted pool will always restrict your result.
Important, though, how you sit on a stool - especially if you are offering yourself up to be Prime Minister.
Still, he didn't fall off it. That would have been terminal.
But now? We don't even have project fear being parroted. Tory members know Brexit will be a disaster. And they don't care because it will all be worth it. Worth what?
It's a fairly inescapable logical conclusion.
A related thought: Is the Betfair market on how many ballots there will be clear in the rules about whether a re-run ballot in the event of a tie counts?
There's a yawning "Sir Graham Brady" shaped hole in this contest.
And the affable panel show host Boris. Who was pro-business, immigration and inclusive as London mayor. He will win back those drifting off to the Lib Dems.
I surely don't need to point out the flaw in this arrangement.
And even if Farage fails to stand I suspect Boris would fail to win a majority
... the LibDems.
Yes well who on earth would have foreseen this although as I keep on saying it should have been modelled as part of any Leaver's scenario analysis.
And as for Lab, even with Jezza's virulent anti-EUism it is those Lab voting Leave voters that prevent a full pivot to remain/ref.
Con got 43.5% (GB) in 2017. So Con 2017 voters are the key people who matter for Con next time. They are a very big pool.
Hardly anyone who voted Lab in 2017 is going to vote Con next time. So the views of these people are of almost no relevance to who is best placed to win Con the next GE.
But one of the reasons we got a majority in 2015 was winning back the UKIP vote from the Euros, assisted by the referendum pledge (which, it should be noted, was made prior to the 2014 Euros!)
Also: if any other industry's flagship product had deteriorated in quality over the last 200 years to the extent that Eton's has, it would be out of business.
If the very worst occurred I would at least have more time to escape to europe...
"MH17: Four charged with shooting down plane over Ukraine"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48691488
And Bellingcat's take:
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2019/06/19/identifying-the-separatists-linked-to-the-downing-of-mh17/
https://twitter.com/IanLaveryMP/status/1141333699461599232
Hard to see where he could pick up further votes . Can’t see any Raab supporters moving there and can’t see Hunt and Gove supporters bailing out .
I think Javid will pick up enough ex Raab ones to overtake Stewart .
Puncturing fantasies is not the same as threat.
his party's leader after his public popularity had peaked but was nonetheless quite successful.