I wonder if you track the changing profile of conservative members (as has been suggested on here) against the kind of candidate they select? Are the more recent recruits more anti EU and to the right rather than the one nation people who used to be selected.
I don't think it ever worked like that. The more long standing members were right wing to begin with but mellowed with age and contact with reality.
Many went the other way, Thatcher and Lawson being two good examples.
1. Sign the WA. This includes a U.K. wide backstop 2. Try to negotiate a U.K. wide FTA 3. If this proves not to be possible on acceptable terms then, AIUI, the U.K. government has the unilateral right to terminate the backstop *for the GB only* 4. Hence termination of the backstop results in a situation where NI and GB have customs checks between the (NB @cyclefree I am referring to an Irish Sea border not a hard border between NI and Eire) 5. This is clearly very difficult for Unionists and represents a significant change in the status of NI 6. Under the GFA this requires the consent of the people of NI, hence a referendum 7. If they vote to leave the backstop then, yes, there is a hard border between North and South. If they vote to stay in the backstop there are checks in the Irish Sea. Either way this is done with the explicit consent of the people of NI
Hope that’s clearer?
While not an entirely daft idea, how would that get through parliament this side of a general election ?
If Rory/Gove (or anyone else) plan on teaming up then they should do it sooner rather than later. Voluntarily withdrawing has a greater moral impact than the necessity of supporting someone because you've been knocked out.
Where was the commanding performance from Johnson that justifies his being seen as a shoo-in for the top job? He was defensive and evasive, even when competing with his friends.
He buckled under the most gentle pressure. The tax cuts for higher earners are now merely an “ambition” about which we need to “have a debate”. On Heathrow he restated his “grave concerns” about expansion while effectively conceding he work.
And he can only have been under scrutiny for ten minutes out of the hour!
The members thinking Johnson will provide the strength t.
You forgot to mention that Boris thinks that No Deal has a transition period, and that GATT 24 means we can trade tariff free with the EU after hard Brexit.
The man is a blithering nincompoop.
If that reflects what the Tory membership believes than he is still a shoo in...
Which means November (or any general election) will be fun...
The problem is these lies and half truths enter the vocabulary of the leaver who feels safe claiming that we can leave to wto rules and GATT 24 means there are no issues with tariffs. You must have come across such “experts” down the pub telling their mates there in nothing to worry about. Then if challenged they fall back on “they need us more than we need them” claiming they will bend over backwards to give us everything we want after a few days of mild disruption.
And? It's too late now given the electorate of this vote so Boris will win and then the fun begins:If Boris goes for an election 1 of 2 things will occur: -
1) The Tories and Nigel sign a deal and a full on campaign of tactical voting is organised - the Tories won't win a majority or 2) Nigel stands candidates against the Tories and the party is toast as their split is vote and their members don't know who and how to canvass...
But if he doesn't call an election he needs to some how leave the EU and it's highly unlikely he will have a majority government as soon as he reveals his real plan...
Nope, Boris gets a 7% lead over Labour and the LDs with the Brexit Party falling to just 13% even with a full slate of BP candidates with Yougov
Relying on any polling for Johnson before we know what he actually does on October 31st is pretty naiive
If the EU will not renegotiate Boris likely holds a general election pre October on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal platform which he would probably win (though as has been suggested he would likely then push for a GB FTA and hold a referendum in NI on the backstop)
Does anyone else think that the leadership election has some elements of the Labour one with Rory being the outsider who is lent votes to 'widen the conversation'? Let's hope he doesn't do a Corbyn.
I don't believe anyone is lending votes.
I think this is expectation management by his team because Boris isn't generating the groundswell amongst his MPs that they hoped.
For the simple reason that he's a complete arse. And they know it.
After last night's disaster Rory is clearly a non-candidate and is just in this to troll everyone and get a vanity kick.
The Conservative Party have indulged him for far too long.
If he goes any further in this contest today it will be clear that the Tories have gone mad (as though we didn't know that already)
He's come a shockingly long way in a very short space of time, because of both social and intellectual skills. This is why he'll clearly be in the frame next time around.
He's come a way because clearly there is a small minority of die hard remainers prepared to indulge him. That our Brexit means Brexit PM was one of him speaks volumes to her own unsuitability for the job.
Die hard remainer Conservative MPs have just as much right to vote they want to as any other Conservative MP
If Rory/Gove (or anyone else) plan on teaming up then they should do it sooner rather than later. Voluntarily withdrawing has a greater moral impact than the necessity of supporting someone because you've been knocked out.
Rory/Gove is a Brompton cocktail ticket if you think about it.
Does anyone else think that the leadership election has some elements of the Labour one with Rory being the outsider who is lent votes to 'widen the conversation'? Let's hope he doesn't do a Corbyn.
1. Sign the WA. This includes a U.K. wide backstop 2. Try to negotiate a U.K. wide FTA 3. If this proves not to be possible on acceptable terms then, AIUI, the U.K. government has the unilateral right to terminate the backstop *for the GB only* 4. Hence termination of the backstop results in a situation where NI and GB have customs checks between the (NB @cyclefree I am referring to an Irish Sea border not a hard border between NI and Eire) 5. This is clearly very difficult for Unionists and represents a significant change in the status of NI 6. Under the GFA this requires the consent of the people of NI, hence a referendum 7. If they vote to leave the backstop then, yes, there is a hard border between North and South. If they vote to stay in the backstop there are checks in the Irish Sea. Either way this is done with the explicit consent of the people of NI
Hope that’s clearer?
Many of us said at the time of the 2017 joint report that paragraph 50 effectively gave Belfast a veto on Great Britain diverging. Your proposal would add an additional referendum lock.
After last night's disaster Rory is clearly a non-candidate and is just in this to troll everyone and get a vanity kick.
The Conservative Party have indulged him for far too long.
If he goes any further in this contest today it will be clear that the Tories have gone mad (as though we didn't know that already)
I don't particularly rate him, but what a ludicrous thing to say.
Imagery matters.
Rory looked like a nerd with weird mannerisms and such people fail as party leaders.
As Willy Hague and EdM discovered.
An altogether different point. Anyway, he looks like Abe Lincoln. And Churchill looked like a slightly cruel pig.
Abe Lincoln is a good comparison.
Ishmael does have a point. Or, perhaps, did. People are so fed up with politicians that maybe they're no longer interested in smarm?
I mean, Corbyn's not exactly Brad Pitt either?
While Stewart's looks are ... distinctive, his voice is quite pleasant. Contrast with the late Robin Cook, who not only looked, but also sounded a bit odd, despite his obvious intellect.
Does anyone else think that the leadership election has some elements of the Labour one with Rory being the outsider who is lent votes to 'widen the conversation'? Let's hope he doesn't do a Corbyn.
With the exception that Boris will win easily against Rory. Boris supporters in the constituencies are the Corbynites in Labour.
Boris will be a better PM (low bar I know) if he's tested severely by Rory in the final two.
Does it matter? It ought to matter. It certainly should but why is the standing of British universities not reflected in economic or industrial benefits, as in the United States or, as you say, increasingly China?
It cannot be that the league tables are wrong. We do win more than our share of Nobel Prizes, for instance, so we must be doing something right.
There may be soft power or influence to be taken into account. Many foreign leaders have studied here, and presumably we take some lasting benefit from that.
On the rise of China, SeanT saw this years ago, and warned against George Osborne cutting British research.
If you look at the top 50 universities in that list, you see that the major players are the US, the UK and the Far East (China/Singapore/Japan)
We are told that we have to be in the EU, because the big power blocks in the future will be the EU, the US and China.
So, at face value, what that list tells you is what a shitty job the EU is doing in promoting European research and training in the EU universities.
The list isn't telling you that it is the fault of George Osborne or Brexit.
Once the UK leaves, the EU will have TWO universities in the top 50. There is no way that is anything other than a very poor result for the EU in research and training.
True. Except our dominance of the European university scene is not reflected in relative economic performance. That is what I was getting at. I don't know why, but we do not seem to enjoy the spin-offs other countries do.
I chaired the commercialisation committee for a university for a few years. Academics were generally completely unwilling to engage with anything that distracted them from their academic pursuits
Which is unsurprising since, in the most part, that’s why they became academics.
Compare the pro brexit farmer on radio 4 a couple of months ago who responded to a hectoring question about didn't he realise he would end up with less money with "if I cared that much about money I wouldn't be a farmer in the first place, would I?"
I doubt that is really true. I bet he cares enough to want not to loose his livelihood and life's work. But whatever, it does mean he had lost the argument.
What was Abdullah saying on twitter before his account mysteriously vanished this morning?
He had previously posted some antisemitic tropes, including that one about moving Israel to the USA. Real pity, because he was spot on in his criticism of Tory islamophobia. But nobody wants to listen to good points from a hypocrite.
To work for me but a final thought. I cannot understand why the Conservative candidates are so obsessed about 'we must deliver Brexit' when it clearly isn't the position of the country at large.
Let me qualify that. People are sick of the bloody thing. Half would happily boot it into touch as a bad idea. And half want it delivered, with some adding that this should be no matter what the cost.
So, when I say that I cannot understand, what I mean is that the massive fault line with this leadership contest is that the candidates are pitching to the right-wing. Which might be okay were they not making promises that they simply cannot keep. They absolutely cannot deliver what they're saying. And so they will be hung, drawn and quartered by the public. And probably by the party.
So, when I say that I cannot understand, what I mean is that the massive fault line with this leadership contest is that the candidates are pitching to the right-wing. Which might be okay were they not making promises that they simply cannot keep. They absolutely cannot deliver what they're saying. And so they will be hung, drawn and quartered by the public. And probably by the party.
I was heavily red on Rory Stewart but the reaction to the debate last night seems to have been overdone so I've returned him to neutral for now, with a view to laying him again later on if the opportunity presents itself.
If as he hinted he teamed up with Michael Gove, in either order, the prospects of the lead candidate of that pairing would improve markedly.
But the order matters in terms of the market. If Stewart backs Gove, you've just diminished your profit.
If I was a Raab backer yesterday who now prefers Boris I would vote Javid in a secret ballot today to eliminate Stewart and then back Boris tomorrow.
Yep but, then, you said you'd happily see the return of the troubles in Northern Ireland if it meant losing the backstop.
So your views on this aren't to be trusted.
I didn't say happily.
With complete insouciance, then.
That's fairer.
The backstop is an abomination I would support anything over it.
There is a very simple way to deal with concerns over the backstop. Give NI full voting rights within the EU for as long as they are in the backstop. So NI elects MEPs and the NI executive replace the UK government in the European Council. So Arlene Foster has veto powers etc . . Do that and it will be democratic.
Where was the commanding performance from Johnson that justifies his being seen as a shoo-in for the top job? He was defensive and evasive, even when competing with his friends.
He buckled under the most gentle pressure. The tax cuts for higher earners are now merely an “ambition” about which we need to “have a debate”. On Heathrow he restated his “grave concerns” about expansion while effectively conceding he work.
And he can only have been under scrutiny for ten minutes out of the hour!
The members thinking Johnson will provide the strength t.
You forgot to mention that Boris thinks that No Deal has a transition period, and that GATT 24 means we can trade tariff free with the EU after hard Brexit.
If that reflects what the Tory membership believes than he is still a shoo in...
Which means November (or any general election) will be fun...
The problem is these lies and half truths enter the vocabulary of the leaver who feels safe claiming that we can leave to wto rules and GATT 24 means there are no issues with tariffs. You must have come across such “experts” down the pub telling their mates there in nothing to worry about. Then if challenged they fall back on “they need us more than we need them” claiming they will bend over backwards to give us everything we want after a few days of mild disruption.
And? It's too late now given the electorate of this vote so Boris will win and then the fun begins:If Boris goes for an election 1 of 2 things will occur: -
1) The Tories and Nigel sign a deal and a full on campaign of tactical voting is organised - the Tories won't win a majority or 2) Nigel stands candidates against the Tories and the party is toast as their split is vote and their members don't know who and how to canvass...
But if he doesn't call an election he needs to some how leave the EU and it's highly unlikely he will have a majority government as soon as he reveals his real plan...
Nope, Boris gets a 7% lead over Labour and the LDs with the Brexit Party falling to just 13% even with a full slate of BP candidates with Yougov
Relying on any polling for Johnson before we know what he actually does on October 31st is pretty naiive
If the EU will not renegotiate Boris likely holds a general election pre October on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal platform which he would probably win (though as has been suggested he would likely then push for a GB FTA and hold a referendum in NI on the backstop)
How can he stand on a deal/no deal platform surely its one or the other?
I'm heavily pro-Gove to make the final. Tbf, I am also anti-Boris to make the final two (it seemed cheaper and more sensible than opposing him on the main market, where he's a decent winner - thanks Andrea).
It looks like Boris has the numbers to pick his opponent if he really wants to. But it is a dangerous game: any MPs involved in vote-lending leave themselves very exposed for the rest of their careers.
My view is that Johnson WILL (if necessary) gerrymander Hunt into the run-off. It might not be necessary, Hunt is a strong contender in his own right to be second, but if Johnson needs to do it he will. It is what I would do if I was a shallow duplicitous charlatan. Wouldn't think twice about it. Couple of weeks getting savaged by a dead sheep then I win 65/35 and become Prime Minister. Lovely. I'll take it.
So, Johnson/Hunt. I think a bet on that at anything materially above 1.5 is solid value. If 1.75 can be achieved it enters 'fill your boots' territory.
Does anyone else think that the leadership election has some elements of the Labour one with Rory being the outsider who is lent votes to 'widen the conversation'? Let's hope he doesn't do a Corbyn.
With the exception that Boris will win easily against Rory. Boris supporters in the constituencies are the Corbynites in Labour.
Boris will be a better PM (low bar I know) if he's tested severely by Rory in the final two.
Boris would be a better leader if Rory were in his Cabinet, forcefully making a different case to that of the PM, week after week, then being bound by the collective responsibility of Cabinet. But (unwisely in my view) Rory has ruled himself out of being in a position to deliver that role.
Compare the pro brexit farmer on radio 4 a couple of months ago who responded to a hectoring question about didn't he realise he would end up with less money with "if I cared that much about money I wouldn't be a farmer in the first place, would I?"
I doubt that is really true. I bet he cares enough to want not to loose his livelihood and life's work. But whatever, it does mean he had lost the argument.
I don't think he thought it would come to that (and he seemed to have a more than adequate grasp of the issues involed), and it came across as a knock-out win for him. Perhaps try a slightly less caveman-like approach to political discourse? Ugg see Leaver, Ugg hate Leaver, Ugg hit Leaver with large club, doesn't really get us anywhere.
If I was a Raab backer yesterday who now prefers Boris I would vote Javid in a secret ballot today to eliminate Stewart and then back Boris tomorrow.
Yep but, then, you said you'd happily see the return of the troubles in Northern Ireland if it meant losing the backstop.
So your views on this aren't to be trusted.
I didn't say happily.
With complete insouciance, then.
That's fairer.
The backstop is an abomination I would support anything over it.
There is a very simple way to deal with concerns over the backstop. Give NI full voting rights within the EU for as long as they are in the backstop. So NI elects MEPs and the NI executive replace the UK government in the European Council. So Arlene Foster has veto powers etc . . Do that and it will be democratic.
replace the UK government in the European Council? [I'm laughing so hard I can barely breathe]
What was Abdullah saying on twitter before his account mysteriously vanished this morning?
The jews, the jews, the jews...i am a massive fan of corbyn...the jews...evil tories.
So just your regular member of the public.
It doesn't invalidate his question though about words having consequences.
Could the bbc not have found anybody perhaps less of an antisemite? Surely in this day and age when selecting people for stuff like this you would get your researchers to do some background checks. Also, i think it would be be fair if somebody is clearly a member / supporter of another party, it is stated.
Does it matter? It ought to matter. It certainly should but why is the standing of British universities not reflected in economic or industrial benefits, as in the United States or, as you say, increasingly China?
It cannot be that the league tables are wrong. We do win more than our share of Nobel Prizes, for instance, so we must be doing something right.
There may be soft power or influence to be taken into account. Many foreign leaders have studied here, and presumably we take some lasting benefit from that.
On the rise of China, SeanT saw this years ago, and warned against George Osborne cutting British research.
If you look at the top 50 universities in that list, you see that the major players are the US, the UK and the Far East (China/Singapore/Japan)
We are told that we have to be in the EU, because the big power blocks in the future will be the EU, the US and China.
So, at face value, what that list tells you is what a shitty job the EU is doing in promoting European research and training in the EU universities.
The list isn't telling you that it is the fault of George Osborne or Brexit.
Once the UK leaves, the EU will have TWO universities in the top 50. There is no way that is anything other than a very poor result for the EU in research and training.
True. Except our dominance of the European university scene is not reflected in relative economic performance. That is what I was getting at. I don't know why, but we do not seem to enjoy the spin-offs other countries do.
I chaired the commercialisation committee for a university for a few years. Academics were generally completely unwilling to engage with anything that distracted them from their academic pursuits
Which is unsurprising since, in the most part, that’s why they became academics.
Also their careers, promotion and research grants depend on their research being sucessful not on the comercialisation of their research. The Vice Chancellors and Government want very much to want to encorage spin off commercialisation, but frankly the chances of failure are to high for most academics to consider it worth risking their careers for it.
Does anyone else think that the leadership election has some elements of the Labour one with Rory being the outsider who is lent votes to 'widen the conversation'? Let's hope he doesn't do a Corbyn.
With the exception that Boris will win easily against Rory. Boris supporters in the constituencies are the Corbynites in Labour.
Boris will be a better PM (low bar I know) if he's tested severely by Rory in the final two.
Boris would be a better leader if Rory were in his Cabinet, forcefully making a different case to that of the PM, week after week, then being bound by the collective responsibility of Cabinet. But (unwisely in my view) Rory has ruled himself out of being in a position to deliver that role.
I don't think that's an unreasonably view but neither is Rory's reason for not. Taking a stand on principle should be a lauded virtue especially in a politician.
If I was a Raab backer yesterday who now prefers Boris I would vote Javid in a secret ballot today to eliminate Stewart and then back Boris tomorrow.
I don't think Raab backers to go overwhelmingly to Boris. Brexit is not the only issue, and if they were that inclined to ERG tendencies they would have already followed JRM into the Boris column.
Does anyone else think that the leadership election has some elements of the Labour one with Rory being the outsider who is lent votes to 'widen the conversation'? Let's hope he doesn't do a Corbyn.
With the exception that Boris will win easily against Rory. Boris supporters in the constituencies are the Corbynites in Labour.
Boris will be a better PM (low bar I know) if he's tested severely by Rory in the final two.
Boris would be a better leader if Rory were in his Cabinet, forcefully making a different case to that of the PM, week after week, then being bound by the collective responsibility of Cabinet. But (unwisely in my view) Rory has ruled himself out of being in a position to deliver that role.
Why is that unwise. Collective responsibility during a s**tstorm that will be Brexit could destroy him as it will everyone in the cabinet.
Rory sitting remote waiting for the hour (I won't say day as I suspect it will be very rapid) when things go pearshaped is the sensible plan.
What was Abdullah saying on twitter before his account mysteriously vanished this morning?
The jews, the jews, the jews...i am a massive fan of corbyn...the jews...evil tories.
So just your regular member of the public.
It doesn't invalidate his question though about words having consequences.
Could the bbc not have found anybody perhaps less of an antisemite? Surely in this day and age when selecting people for stuff like this you would get your researchers to do some background checks. Also, i think it would be be fair if somebody is clearly a member / supporter of another party, it is stated.
Question Time is always stuffed with party plants, so it is good preparation for real campaigning.
After last night's disaster Rory is clearly a non-candidate and is just in this to to troll everyone and get a vanity kick.
The Conservative Party have indulged him for far too long.
If he goes any further in this contest today it will be clear that the Tories have gone mad (as though we didn't know that already)
This seasons Change UK for the slither of Centrists to get over excited about. Behind Gove in the betting now.
If you mean the 'slither' of centrists in the country then actually they represent the majority of voters. The extremists may shout loudest but they're not, actually, very British. At the end of the day the majority are fairly decent folk who don't like to be bastards. Power is always won in the centre ground.
This is why I encourage everyone I know to vote. Political extremists always vote.
Does anyone else think that the leadership election has some elements of the Labour one with Rory being the outsider who is lent votes to 'widen the conversation'? Let's hope he doesn't do a Corbyn.
With the exception that Boris will win easily against Rory. Boris supporters in the constituencies are the Corbynites in Labour.
Boris will be a better PM (low bar I know) if he's tested severely by Rory in the final two.
Boris would be a better leader if Rory were in his Cabinet, forcefully making a different case to that of the PM, week after week, then being bound by the collective responsibility of Cabinet. But (unwisely in my view) Rory has ruled himself out of being in a position to deliver that role.
Why is that unwise. Collective responsibility during a s**tstorm that will be Brexit could destroy him as it will everyone in the cabinet.
Rory sitting remote waiting for the hour (I won't say day as I suspect it will be very rapid) when things go pearshaped is the sensible plan.
If I was a Raab backer yesterday who now prefers Boris I would vote Javid in a secret ballot today to eliminate Stewart and then back Boris tomorrow.
Yep but, then, you said you'd happily see the return of the troubles in Northern Ireland if it meant losing the backstop.
So your views on this aren't to be trusted.
I didn't say happily.
With complete insouciance, then.
That's fairer.
The backstop is an abomination I would support anything over it.
There is a very simple way to deal with concerns over the backstop. Give NI full voting rights within the EU for as long as they are in the backstop. So NI elects MEPs and the NI executive replace the UK government in the European Council. So Arlene Foster has veto powers etc . . Do that and it will be democratic.
replace the UK government in the European Council? [I'm laughing so hard I can barely breathe]
What's so funny?
Currently the UK Prime Minister Theresa May sits on the European Council. Soon that will most likely be Boris. If the EU is so keen on keeping NI subject to EU laws and regulations then it is only fair that Arlene Foster takes the PM's seat on the Council for the duration of the backstop.
Does anyone else think that the leadership election has some elements of the Labour one with Rory being the outsider who is lent votes to 'widen the conversation'? Let's hope he doesn't do a Corbyn.
With the exception that Boris will win easily against Rory. Boris supporters in the constituencies are the Corbynites in Labour.
Boris will be a better PM (low bar I know) if he's tested severely by Rory in the final two.
Boris would be a better leader if Rory were in his Cabinet, forcefully making a different case to that of the PM, week after week, then being bound by the collective responsibility of Cabinet. But (unwisely in my view) Rory has ruled himself out of being in a position to deliver that role.
Why is that unwise. Collective responsibility during a s**tstorm that will be Brexit could destroy him as it will everyone in the cabinet.
Rory sitting remote waiting for the hour (I won't say day as I suspect it will be very rapid) when things go pearshaped is the sensible plan.
No - it will just be put about that he absented himself from having been able to prevent/lessen that shitstorm.
PM Boris should still offer him a post - and make Rory decide to decline it.
Does anyone else think that the leadership election has some elements of the Labour one with Rory being the outsider who is lent votes to 'widen the conversation'? Let's hope he doesn't do a Corbyn.
With the exception that Boris will win easily against Rory. Boris supporters in the constituencies are the Corbynites in Labour.
Boris will be a better PM (low bar I know) if he's tested severely by Rory in the final two.
Boris would be a better leader if Rory were in his Cabinet, forcefully making a different case to that of the PM, week after week, then being bound by the collective responsibility of Cabinet. But (unwisely in my view) Rory has ruled himself out of being in a position to deliver that role.
Why is that unwise. Collective responsibility during a s**tstorm that will be Brexit could destroy him as it will everyone in the cabinet.
Rory sitting remote waiting for the hour (I won't say day as I suspect it will be very rapid) when things go pearshaped is the sensible plan.
No - it will just be put about that he absented himself from having been able to prevent/lessen that shitstorm.
PM Boris should still offer him a post - and make Rory decide to decline it.
No he shouldn't. He'll just leverage any post with threats to resign from it, so why not fast forward to the end point already?
Does anyone else think that the leadership election has some elements of the Labour one with Rory being the outsider who is lent votes to 'widen the conversation'? Let's hope he doesn't do a Corbyn.
With the exception that Boris will win easily against Rory. Boris supporters in the constituencies are the Corbynites in Labour.
Boris will be a better PM (low bar I know) if he's tested severely by Rory in the final two.
Boris would be a better leader if Rory were in his Cabinet, forcefully making a different case to that of the PM, week after week, then being bound by the collective responsibility of Cabinet. But (unwisely in my view) Rory has ruled himself out of being in a position to deliver that role.
Why is that unwise. Collective responsibility during a s**tstorm that will be Brexit could destroy him as it will everyone in the cabinet.
Rory sitting remote waiting for the hour (I won't say day as I suspect it will be very rapid) when things go pearshaped is the sensible plan.
No - it will just be put about that he absented himself from having been able to prevent/lessen that shitstorm.
PM Boris should still offer him a post - and make Rory decide to decline it.
I've found over the years that if it's 19 against 1 and you are the 1 make sure you're nowhere near a decision you know won't work - the meeting minutes will never show you objection...
If I was a Raab backer yesterday who now prefers Boris I would vote Javid in a secret ballot today to eliminate Stewart and then back Boris tomorrow.
Yep but, then, you said you'd happily see the return of the troubles in Northern Ireland if it meant losing the backstop.
So your views on this aren't to be trusted.
I didn't say happily.
With complete insouciance, then.
That's fairer.
The backstop is an abomination I would support anything over it.
There is a very simple way to deal with concerns over the backstop. Give NI full voting rights within the EU for as long as they are in the backstop. So NI elects MEPs and the NI executive replace the UK government in the European Council. So Arlene Foster has veto powers etc . . Do that and it will be democratic.
replace the UK government in the European Council? [I'm laughing so hard I can barely breathe]
What's so funny?
Currently the UK Prime Minister Theresa May sits on the European Council. Soon that will most likely be Boris. If the EU is so keen on keeping NI subject to EU laws and regulations then it is only fair that Arlene Foster takes the PM's seat on the Council for the duration of the backstop.
Unless NI renites with the Republic then it should just have observer status, like the EEA, not EU voting rights. Indeed that should also apply to vassal state GB.
In other important news I see Boris's car is yet to have the makeover!
He's essentially Tommy Robinson with a vocabulary. Amazing that he used to be a Labour member until quite recently.
It's one of the great achievements of Corbyn's Labour that they have shed people like this. You have to win without them. You don't want that strain of 'thinking' to be any part of your mandate.
What was Abdullah saying on twitter before his account mysteriously vanished this morning?
The jews, the jews, the jews...i am a massive fan of corbyn...the jews...evil tories.
So just your regular member of the public.
It doesn't invalidate his question though about words having consequences.
Good to see the left rowing back on their no platforming of people with controversial views
I don't think I have ever advocated no platforming. I support people airing their views, and being shot down as a result, ala Nick Griffin on Question Time. Sunshine is a great disinfectant.
Does anyone else think that the leadership election has some elements of the Labour one with Rory being the outsider who is lent votes to 'widen the conversation'? Let's hope he doesn't do a Corbyn.
With the exception that Boris will win easily against Rory. Boris supporters in the constituencies are the Corbynites in Labour.
Boris will be a better PM (low bar I know) if he's tested severely by Rory in the final two.
Boris would be a better leader if Rory were in his Cabinet, forcefully making a different case to that of the PM, week after week, then being bound by the collective responsibility of Cabinet. But (unwisely in my view) Rory has ruled himself out of being in a position to deliver that role.
Why is that unwise. Collective responsibility during a s**tstorm that will be Brexit could destroy him as it will everyone in the cabinet.
Rory sitting remote waiting for the hour (I won't say day as I suspect it will be very rapid) when things go pearshaped is the sensible plan.
No - it will just be put about that he absented himself from having been able to prevent/lessen that shitstorm.
PM Boris should still offer him a post - and make Rory decide to decline it.
Rory could just decide to go for another walk in Afghanistan when anything awks in cabinet crops up. I'm sure there's a similar precedent.
It appears that Guido has had a look at a twitter feed of one of the questioners last night. He appears to have some very robust views, the uncharitable would wonder why he was chosen to speak on air.
That Boris-booster Guido was even looking makes one suspect that he was not impressed by his man's handling of the question, especially when he let the Saj bounce him into conceding an inquiry (even if it can be kicked into the long grass).
For some reason, the quoted twitter feed has gone. May be some surprised Guardian journalists and readers this morning.
All the woketard boxes were ticked with the questions last night - phobias, dead polar bears, evil cuts.
All added to the farce.
I think the clue was in the title "Our Next PM" so the questions came from across the political spectrum. They did not treat it as what it is, a leadership contest in a party currently running at 20% in the polls.
Would have been far, far more insight if they had run it from a ConClub in Lancashire. "And any bugger swearing on telly will be barred from snooker room for a month."
Emily Maitliss doesn't have the professional ability to differentiate her demeanour between being presented with a live living Tory and a steaming turd. Her one and only setting is "How could any sentient being EVER vote Tory?".
Good question, though, based on current performance. I guess Boris was the winner of last night's debate by showing that he can actually turn up. The Tory Party was surely the loser by making all too clear that this lot should never be anywhere near power.
So, Conservatives unfit to govern. Labour unfit to govern. The Lib Dems led by... stop tittering at the back... Jo Swinson.
... and some folk wonder why the SNP just keep on winning after twelve years in government.
SNP 12% below its 2015 total still
Indeed.
SNP 2015 GE: 50% SNP latest full-sample polls: 38%, 43%, 38%, 41%
If the Tories were at or around 40%, twelve years into government, you’d be cockahoop. We compare ourselves with the SCon, SLab, SLD numbers (latest: 18%, 19%, 10%), not with ourselves four years ago.
What was Abdullah saying on twitter before his account mysteriously vanished this morning?
The jews, the jews, the jews...i am a massive fan of corbyn...the jews...evil tories.
So just your regular member of the public.
It doesn't invalidate his question though about words having consequences.
Good to see the left rowing back on their no platforming of people with controversial views
But it doesn’t invalidate his question though.
Nick Griffin called out the child abuse in northern towns. Doesn't mean the BBC would consider it appropriate for him to question Labour politicians on their inaction over the years.
If I was a Raab backer yesterday who now prefers Boris I would vote Javid in a secret ballot today to eliminate Stewart and then back Boris tomorrow.
Yep but, then, you said you'd happily see the return of the troubles in Northern Ireland if it meant losing the backstop.
So your views on this aren't to be trusted.
I didn't say happily.
With complete insouciance, then.
That's fairer.
The backstop is an abomination I would support anything over it.
There is a very simple way to deal with concerns over the backstop. Give NI full voting rights within the EU for as long as they are in the backstop. So NI elects MEPs and the NI executive replace the UK government in the European Council. So Arlene Foster has veto powers etc . . Do that and it will be democratic.
replace the UK government in the European Council? [I'm laughing so hard I can barely breathe]
What's so funny?
Currently the UK Prime Minister Theresa May sits on the European Council. Soon that will most likely be Boris. If the EU is so keen on keeping NI subject to EU laws and regulations then it is only fair that Arlene Foster takes the PM's seat on the Council for the duration of the backstop.
Unless NI renites with the Republic then it should just have observer status, like the EEA, not EU voting rights. Indeed that should also apply to vassal state GB.
In other important news I see Boris's car is yet to have the makeover!
What was Abdullah saying on twitter before his account mysteriously vanished this morning?
The jews, the jews, the jews...i am a massive fan of corbyn...the jews...evil tories.
So just your regular member of the public.
It doesn't invalidate his question though about words having consequences.
Good to see the left rowing back on their no platforming of people with controversial views
But it doesn’t invalidate his question though.
Nick Griffin called out the child abuse in northern towns. Doesn't mean the BBC would consider it appropriate for him to question Labour politicians on their inaction over the years.
Two observations - first, I've said before I think Rishi Sunak will lead the Conservatives one day and I'll be looking to see if he is promoted in a Johnson administration.
Second, it's clear that the issue of adult social care costs isn't going to go away but it's not hopeful when we see prospective Prime Ministers playing a dutch auction on who can offer the biggest tax bribes (sorry, cuts). I'd argue an adequate provision of social care for vulnerable adults and children is more of a priority and ensuring that both using existing funds and via a well-thought through future system of individual and State funding should be where the thinking is not how much to cut off income tax.
Conservatives have long prided themselves on being the Party of the family - part of it is recognising the needs of the elderly and ensuring those who no longer work and need help (and those who care for them) get as much support as possible not just financially but in terms of carer breaks and providing tax support for companies employing carers.
LOL! All those "members of the public" dipping in and out of the debate from regional BBC studios was extremely odd. Not surprised this has come back to bite the beeb.
LOL! All those "members of the public" dipping in and out of the debate from regional BBC studios was extremely odd. Not surprised this has come back to bite the beeb.
The whole hour was very, very strange...
It was a bloody shambles, a total mess from start to finish. Stools were just plain weird. Non-Brexit questions started way too early, letting Boris off the hook on the only issue that he will be spending any time if he does become PM. Emily let him ramble on filling up screen time with vacuous piffle whilst interrupting everyone else.
Does anyone else think that the leadership election has some elements of the Labour one with Rory being the outsider who is lent votes to 'widen the conversation'? Let's hope he doesn't do a Corbyn.
With the exception that Boris will win easily against Rory. Boris supporters in the constituencies are the Corbynites in Labour.
Boris will be a better PM (low bar I know) if he's tested severely by Rory in the final two.
Boris would be a better leader if Rory were in his Cabinet, forcefully making a different case to that of the PM, week after week, then being bound by the collective responsibility of Cabinet. But (unwisely in my view) Rory has ruled himself out of being in a position to deliver that role.
Why is that unwise. Collective responsibility during a s**tstorm that will be Brexit could destroy him as it will everyone in the cabinet.
Rory sitting remote waiting for the hour (I won't say day as I suspect it will be very rapid) when things go pearshaped is the sensible plan.
No - it will just be put about that he absented himself from having been able to prevent/lessen that shitstorm.
PM Boris should still offer him a post - and make Rory decide to decline it.
No he shouldn't. He'll just leverage any post with threats to resign from it, so why not fast forward to the end point already?
Resigning from Cabinet seems to have certain merit with a sizeable chunk of the Conservative Parliamentary Party..... Fast-track to being PM.
In other news, a wee insight into the impact on SCons of the poll revealing 63% of Con members see losing Scotland as as price worth paying for Brexit (the figs were pretty much reversed in the sub sample of SCon respondees).
If I was a Raab backer yesterday who now prefers Boris I would vote Javid in a secret ballot today to eliminate Stewart and then back Boris tomorrow.
Yep but, then, you said you'd happily see the return of the troubles in Northern Ireland if it meant losing the backstop.
So your views on this aren't to be trusted.
I didn't say happily.
With complete insouciance, then.
That's fairer.
The backstop is an abomination I would support anything over it.
There is a very simple way to deal with concerns over the backstop. Give NI full voting rights within the EU for as long as they are in the backstop. So NI elects MEPs and the NI executive replace the UK government in the European Council. So Arlene Foster has veto powers etc . . Do that and it will be democratic.
replace the UK government in the European Council? [I'm laughing so hard I can barely breathe]
What's so funny?
Currently the UK Prime Minister Theresa May sits on the European Council. Soon that will most likely be Boris. If the EU is so keen on keeping NI subject to EU laws and regulations then it is only fair that Arlene Foster takes the PM's seat on the Council for the duration of the backstop.
Unless NI renites with the Republic then it should just have observer status, like the EEA, not EU voting rights. Indeed that should also apply to vassal state GB.
In other important news I see Boris's car is yet to have the makeover!
Except EEA can choose to unilaterally exit the agreement. They have temporarily for as long as they wish to do so prorogued their decision making to the EU.
NI under the backstop can't. They have no exit. Therefore they must have voting rights or a unilateral exit mechanism. Otherwise there is no continuing consent.
This can be easily remedied by keeping MEPs and adding Arlene Foster to the Council, or by eliminating the backstop, or by allowing NI to opt in or out of the backstop at their choice.
Does anyone else think that the leadership election has some elements of the Labour one with Rory being the outsider who is lent votes to 'widen the conversation'? Let's hope he doesn't do a Corbyn.
With the exception that Boris will win easily against Rory. Boris supporters in the constituencies are the Corbynites in Labour.
Boris will be a better PM (low bar I know) if he's tested severely by Rory in the final two.
Boris would be a better leader if Rory were in his Cabinet, forcefully making a different case to that of the PM, week after week, then being bound by the collective responsibility of Cabinet. But (unwisely in my view) Rory has ruled himself out of being in a position to deliver that role.
Why is that unwise. Collective responsibility during a s**tstorm that will be Brexit could destroy him as it will everyone in the cabinet.
Rory sitting remote waiting for the hour (I won't say day as I suspect it will be very rapid) when things go pearshaped is the sensible plan.
No - it will just be put about that he absented himself from having been able to prevent/lessen that shitstorm.
PM Boris should still offer him a post - and make Rory decide to decline it.
No he shouldn't. He'll just leverage any post with threats to resign from it, so why not fast forward to the end point already?
Resigning from Cabinet seems to have certain merit with a sizeable chunk of the Conservative Parliamentary Party..... Fast-track to being PM.
But not if you'd rather go walkaout.
The new PM should vet all potential Cabinet ministers to ensure they are onboard fully with his plan, including all eventualities. If they're not then they shouldn't be appointed.
Does anyone else think that the leadership election has some elements of the Labour one with Rory being the outsider who is lent votes to 'widen the conversation'? Let's hope he doesn't do a Corbyn.
With the exception that Boris will win easily against Rory. Boris supporters in the constituencies are the Corbynites in Labour.
Boris will be a better PM (low bar I know) if he's tested severely by Rory in the final two.
Boris would be a better leader if Rory were in his Cabinet, forcefully making a different case to that of the PM, week after week, then being bound by the collective responsibility of Cabinet. But (unwisely in my view) Rory has ruled himself out of being in a position to deliver that role.
Why is that unwise. Collective responsibility during a s**tstorm that will be Brexit could destroy him as it will everyone in the cabinet.
Rory sitting remote waiting for the hour (I won't say day as I suspect it will be very rapid) when things go pearshaped is the sensible plan.
No - it will just be put about that he absented himself from having been able to prevent/lessen that shitstorm.
PM Boris should still offer him a post - and make Rory decide to decline it.
No he shouldn't. He'll just leverage any post with threats to resign from it, so why not fast forward to the end point already?
Resigning from Cabinet seems to have certain merit with a sizeable chunk of the Conservative Parliamentary Party..... Fast-track to being PM.
But not if you'd rather go walkaout.
The new PM should vet all potential Cabinet ministers to ensure they are onboard fully with his plan, including all eventualities. If they're not then they shouldn't be appointed.
LOL! That will be the weirdest pairing since Clarke and Redwood teamed up!
They're the two candidates who have said from the start that they're willing to go beyond 31st Oct (though it seems everyone has evolved their positions on that a bit). So not that odd.
Does anyone else think that the leadership election has some elements of the Labour one with Rory being the outsider who is lent votes to 'widen the conversation'? Let's hope he doesn't do a Corbyn.
With the exception that Boris will win easily against Rory. Boris supporters in the constituencies are the Corbynites in Labour.
Boris will be a better PM (low bar I know) if he's tested severely by Rory in the final two.
Boris would be a better leader if Rory were in his Cabinet, forcefully making a different case to that of the PM, week after week, then being bound by the collective responsibility of Cabinet. But (unwisely in my view) Rory has ruled himself out of being in a position to deliver that role.
Why is that unwise. Collective responsibility during a s**tstorm that will be Brexit could destroy him as it will everyone in the cabinet.
Rory sitting remote waiting for the hour (I won't say day as I suspect it will be very rapid) when things go pearshaped is the sensible plan.
No - it will just be put about that he absented himself from having been able to prevent/lessen that shitstorm.
PM Boris should still offer him a post - and make Rory decide to decline it.
No he shouldn't. He'll just leverage any post with threats to resign from it, so why not fast forward to the end point already?
Resigning from Cabinet seems to have certain merit with a sizeable chunk of the Conservative Parliamentary Party..... Fast-track to being PM.
But not if you'd rather go walkaout.
The new PM should vet all potential Cabinet ministers to ensure they are onboard fully with his plan, including all eventualities. If they're not then they shouldn't be appointed.
What plan?
Brexit by Oct 31, deal if possible, no deal if it can't be agreed.
Why is that unwise. Collective responsibility during a s**tstorm that will be Brexit could destroy him as it will everyone in the cabinet. No - it will just be put about that he absented himself from having been able to prevent/lessen that shitstorm.
PM Boris should still offer him a post - and make Rory decide to decline it.
You think that despite his reservations about where the cabinet is heading, his best course of action would be to remain a member of the institution and try to reform it from within?
What was Abdullah saying on twitter before his account mysteriously vanished this morning?
The jews, the jews, the jews...i am a massive fan of corbyn...the jews...evil tories.
So just your regular member of the public.
It doesn't invalidate his question though about words having consequences.
Good to see the left rowing back on their no platforming of people with controversial views
So if Foxy (who is, I believe, a Lib Dem) represents "the left", are you spokesperson for "the far right" ?
The way the Overton window's moving, our new Tory overlord (whomsoever that might be) will be shortly demanding that discredited Marxist Jo Swinson should get back in the dustbin of history where she belongs.
Does anyone else think that the leadership election has some elements of the Labour one with Rory being the outsider who is lent votes to 'widen the conversation'? Let's hope he doesn't do a Corbyn.
With the exception that Boris will win easily against Rory. Boris supporters in the constituencies are the Corbynites in Labour.
Boris will be a better PM (low bar I know) if he's tested severely by Rory in the final two.
Boris would be a better leader if Rory were in his Cabinet, forcefully making a different case to that of the PM, week after week, then being bound by the collective responsibility of Cabinet. But (unwisely in my view) Rory has ruled himself out of being in a position to deliver that role.
Why is that unwise. Collective responsibility during a s**tstorm that will be Brexit could destroy him as it will everyone in the cabinet.
Rory sitting remote waiting for the hour (I won't say day as I suspect it will be very rapid) when things go pearshaped is the sensible plan.
No - it will just be put about that he absented himself from having been able to prevent/lessen that shitstorm.
PM Boris should still offer him a post - and make Rory decide to decline it.
No he shouldn't. He'll just leverage any post with threats to resign from it, so why not fast forward to the end point already?
Resigning from Cabinet seems to have certain merit with a sizeable chunk of the Conservative Parliamentary Party..... Fast-track to being PM.
But not if you'd rather go walkaout.
The new PM should vet all potential Cabinet ministers to ensure they are onboard fully with his plan, including all eventualities. If they're not then they shouldn't be appointed.
What plan?
Brexit by Oct 31, deal if possible, no deal if it can't be agreed.
But that's not really what Boris said last night...
Comments
Ishmael does have a point. Or, perhaps, did. People are so fed up with politicians that maybe they're no longer interested in smarm?
I mean, Corbyn's not exactly Brad Pitt either?
I don't believe anyone is lending votes.
I think this is expectation management by his team because Boris isn't generating the groundswell amongst his MPs that they hoped.
For the simple reason that he's a complete arse. And they know it.
Let's hope he does!
Contrast with the late Robin Cook, who not only looked, but also sounded a bit odd, despite his obvious intellect.
Boris will be a better PM (low bar I know) if he's tested severely by Rory in the final two.
So just your regular member of the public.
Real pity, because he was spot on in his criticism of Tory islamophobia. But nobody wants to listen to good points from a hypocrite.
To work for me but a final thought. I cannot understand why the Conservative candidates are so obsessed about 'we must deliver Brexit' when it clearly isn't the position of the country at large.
Let me qualify that. People are sick of the bloody thing. Half would happily boot it into touch as a bad idea. And half want it delivered, with some adding that this should be no matter what the cost.
So, when I say that I cannot understand, what I mean is that the massive fault line with this leadership contest is that the candidates are pitching to the right-wing. Which might be okay were they not making promises that they simply cannot keep. They absolutely cannot deliver what they're saying. And so they will be hung, drawn and quartered by the public. And probably by the party.
In this regard Rory Stewart stands alone.
The backstop is an abomination I would support anything over it.
There is a very simple way to deal with concerns over the backstop. Give NI full voting rights within the EU for as long as they are in the backstop. So NI elects MEPs and the NI executive replace the UK government in the European Council. So Arlene Foster has veto powers etc . .
Do that and it will be democratic.
So, Johnson/Hunt. I think a bet on that at anything materially above 1.5 is solid value. If 1.75 can be achieved it enters 'fill your boots' territory.
And lose, not loose.
[I'm laughing so hard I can barely breathe]
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1141265370998804481
Rory sitting remote waiting for the hour (I won't say day as I suspect it will be very rapid) when things go pearshaped is the sensible plan.
As care worker Liam Doherty knows all too well, if you're in a low-paid job, the slightest setback can capsize your finances.
The Irishman moved to the UK in September 2013, bringing his wife Debbie and four children from County Limerick to take up a job in Dawlish in Devon.
"We were struggling to get by," he says. With his wife unable to work because of ill-health, he was the sole provider in the family.
...
Now aged 64, Liam says he can't see himself retiring any time soon.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48677693
Currently the UK Prime Minister Theresa May sits on the European Council. Soon that will most likely be Boris. If the EU is so keen on keeping NI subject to EU laws and regulations then it is only fair that Arlene Foster takes the PM's seat on the Council for the duration of the backstop.
PM Boris should still offer him a post - and make Rory decide to decline it.
In other important news I see Boris's car is yet to have the makeover!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7152985/Inside-Boris-Johnsons-litter-strewn-Toyota-Previa.html
It's one of the great achievements of Corbyn's Labour that they have shed people like this. You have to win without them. You don't want that strain of 'thinking' to be any part of your mandate.
SNP 2015 GE: 50%
SNP latest full-sample polls: 38%, 43%, 38%, 41%
If the Tories were at or around 40%, twelve years into government, you’d be cockahoop. We compare ourselves with the SCon, SLab, SLD numbers (latest: 18%, 19%, 10%), not with ourselves four years ago.
Glad I laid Rory a bit at 11 last afternoon.
https://twitter.com/anthonylooskan/status/1141096101694660608?s=21
Beyond the confines of the Conservative Party leadership, some thoughts on local Government finance:
https://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2019/06/fair-funding-review-recognises-demands-upper-tier-authorities?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_term=
Two observations - first, I've said before I think Rishi Sunak will lead the Conservatives one day and I'll be looking to see if he is promoted in a Johnson administration.
Second, it's clear that the issue of adult social care costs isn't going to go away but it's not hopeful when we see prospective Prime Ministers playing a dutch auction on who can offer the biggest tax bribes (sorry, cuts). I'd argue an adequate provision of social care for vulnerable adults and children is more of a priority and ensuring that both using existing funds and via a well-thought through future system of individual and State funding should be where the thinking is not how much to cut off income tax.
Conservatives have long prided themselves on being the Party of the family - part of it is recognising the needs of the elderly and ensuring those who no longer work and need help (and those who care for them) get as much support as possible not just financially but in terms of carer breaks and providing tax support for companies employing carers.
The whole hour was very, very strange...
I suggest Sky do the next one.
But not if you'd rather go walkaout.
https://twitter.com/sparkyhamill/status/1141264383403855872
'Uhm beggin' yae!'
'Where's your self respect?!'
NI under the backstop can't. They have no exit. Therefore they must have voting rights or a unilateral exit mechanism. Otherwise there is no continuing consent.
This can be easily remedied by keeping MEPs and adding Arlene Foster to the Council, or by eliminating the backstop, or by allowing NI to opt in or out of the backstop at their choice.
https://twitter.com/CrimeLineLaw/status/1141225398929371136
Gove is a moderniser at heart - arguably to a fault, since not everything is broken.
Brexit is the odd one out.
Who gets PM???
Sneaky...