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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Foxy said:

    TGOHF said:

    dr_spyn said:

    dr_spyn said:

    It appears that Guido has had a look at a twitter feed of one of the questioners last night. He appears to have some very robust views, the uncharitable would wonder why he was chosen to speak on air.

    https://order-order.com/2019/06/19/abdullah-bristol-wants-know-panel-agree-words-consequences/

    That Boris-booster Guido was even looking makes one suspect that he was not impressed by his man's handling of the question, especially when he let the Saj bounce him into conceding an inquiry (even if it can be kicked into the long grass).
    For some reason, the quoted twitter feed has gone. May be some surprised Guardian journalists and readers this morning.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/19/disappointing-and-deluded-imam-lambasts-tory-hopefuls-on-islamophobia
    All the woketard boxes were ticked with the questions last night - phobias, dead polar bears, evil cuts.

    All added to the farce.
    I think the clue was in the title "Our Next PM" so the questions came from across the political spectrum. They did not treat it as what it is, a leadership contest in a party currently running at 20% in the polls.
    Combine the Tories and the Brexit Party though and you get to over 40% in the polls, the Tories only stay around 20% and neck and neck with the Brexit Party if they fail to pick Boris
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    TGOHF said:
    The prime minister for everyone not just Tories. How you handle opponents is important. I can’t remember people complaining when Tories questioned Milliband.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    eek said:

    Streeter said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The site should be renamed. The negativity blog. Noone has anything positive to say about anything.

    I like the new Yamaha TT700.
    It does look rather fun, but don't you think you might keep your licence longer on a Vespa?
    I have my licence back but my next speeding offence will almost certainly mean jail time. So, while life in the Royal Navy was first class preparation for eating dreadful food and sleeping in close proximity to highly enthusiastic masturbators, I am sticking to a mixed mode bicycle/Uber transportation system for now and only driving cars on track.
    Why don’t you, oh I don’t know this may sound crazy, slow down?
    I recently had a Toyota Aygo as a hire car. They are cheap and will ensure you never break the speed limit (I don't think it's possible to)...

    And if you want thrills trying to get on to a motorway is something you will enjoy everytime you attempt to (acceleration is not a strong point)...
    We briefly owned the Peugeot equivalent of the Aygo (were they using the Dictionary of the Scots Language when thinking up that wonderful name?)

    I loved that little car. Fantastic acceleration from the lights; you can totally ignore speed signs and cameras (it never gets up there) and cheaper than public transport.

    Only problem is that where we live the roads are jam-packed full of HGVs and other heavy vehicles; roadworks everywhere; and huge Volvos, Beamers and Mercs. Every journey scared the shit it of me.
    In the day I had it I saw both the highlights and lowlights.

    Driving through town to the motorway it was brilliant you could see absolutely everything.

    Once you hit the motorway though - aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh.....
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    TGOHF said:

    dr_spyn said:

    dr_spyn said:

    It appears that Guido has had a look at a twitter feed of one of the questioners last night. He appears to have some very robust views, the uncharitable would wonder why he was chosen to speak on air.

    https://order-order.com/2019/06/19/abdullah-bristol-wants-know-panel-agree-words-consequences/

    That Boris-booster Guido was even looking makes one suspect that he was not impressed by his man's handling of the question, especially when he let the Saj bounce him into conceding an inquiry (even if it can be kicked into the long grass).
    For some reason, the quoted twitter feed has gone. May be some surprised Guardian journalists and readers this morning.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/19/disappointing-and-deluded-imam-lambasts-tory-hopefuls-on-islamophobia
    All the woketard boxes were ticked with the questions last night - phobias, dead polar bears, evil cuts.

    All added to the farce.
    I think the clue was in the title "Our Next PM" so the questions came from across the political spectrum. They did not treat it as what it is, a leadership contest in a party currently running at 20% in the polls.
    Would have been far, far more insight if they had run it from a ConClub in Lancashire. "And any bugger swearing on telly will be barred from snooker room for a month."

    Emily Maitliss doesn't have the professional ability to differentiate her demeanour between being presented with a live living Tory and a steaming turd. Her one and only setting is "How could any sentient being EVER vote Tory?".
    Good question, though, based on current performance. I guess Boris was the winner of last night's debate by showing that he can actually turn up. The Tory Party was surely the loser by making all too clear that this lot should never be anywhere near power.
    So, Conservatives unfit to govern.
    Labour unfit to govern.
    The Lib Dems led by... stop tittering at the back... Jo Swinson.

    ... and some folk wonder why the SNP just keep on winning after twelve years in government.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    Cyclefree said:

    My husband saw the debate later after me and felt that Rory had not done at all badly. Son thought he was nervous or stressed because of the odd body language.

    But he was up again at the crack of dawn on the Today programme. Plugging his message.

    I’m not sure how much further he can go and, in many ways, it might be better not to be PM for the inevitable Brexit car crash. But he has done himself a load of good by his campaign and if MPs and voters don’t want to hear honesty, well, more fools them.

    It’s mot a high bar, admittedly, but I think he’s the best thing that’s come out of the Tory party for a long time.

    I agree 100%. He's genuine and actually willing to engage. I think he has respect right across the political spectrum.
    Unfortunately the membership of the Conservative Party of today is on a different spectrum in more ways than one.

    Does anyone know whether it is possible to get data on political party memberships? I would be interested to know how many new members have joined the Tory Party in, say, the last 10 years. When I was an activist there were always quite a few nutters, but those polls that were published on here yesterday really shocked me. If they were representative, the Conservative Party no longer exists.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited June 2019
    TGOHF said:
    Its amazing how he slipped through the net of BBC checks....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    eek said:

    nichomar said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Where was the commanding performance from Johnson that justifies his being seen as a shoo-in for the top job? He was defensive and evasive, even when competing with his friends.

    He buckled under the most gentle pressure. The tax cuts for higher earners are now merely an “ambition” about which we need to “have a debate”. On Heathrow he restated his “grave concerns” about expansion while effectively conceding he work.

    And he can only have been under scrutiny for ten minutes out of the hour!

    The members thinking Johnson will provide the strength and resolve that Mrs May apparently lacked surely cannot believe that we saw any of that last night? Mrs May would at least have sat there repeating the same inane phrase until the show got to the end. Boris wobbled and ducked and weaved and began to crumble. And has yet to face the opposition parties and an unfriendly parliament.

    You forgot to mention that Boris thinks that No Deal has a transition period, and that GATT 24 means we can trade tariff free with the EU after hard Brexit.

    The man is a blithering nincompoop.
    If that reflects what the Tory membership believes than he is still a shoo in...

    Which means November (or any general election) will be fun...
    The problem is these lies and half truths enter the vocabulary of the leaver who feels safe claiming that we can leave to wto rules and GATT 24 means there are no issues with tariffs. You must have come across such “experts” down the pub telling their mates there in nothing to worry about. Then if challenged they fall back on “they need us more than we need them” claiming they will bend over backwards to give us everything we want after a few days of mild disruption.
    And? It's too late now given the electorate of this vote so Boris will win and then the fun begins:If Boris goes for an election 1 of 2 things will occur: -

    1) The Tories and Nigel sign a deal and a full on campaign of tactical voting is organised - the Tories won't win a majority
    or 2) Nigel stands candidates against the Tories and the party is toast as their split is vote and their members don't know who and how to canvass...

    But if he doesn't call an election he needs to some how leave the EU and it's highly unlikely he will have a majority government as soon as he reveals his real plan...
    Nope, Boris gets a 7% lead over Labour and the LDs with the Brexit Party falling to just 13% even with a full slate of BP candidates with Yougov
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    TGOHF said:

    dr_spyn said:

    dr_spyn said:

    It appears that Guido has had a look at a twitter feed of one of the questioners last night. He appears to have some very robust views, the uncharitable would wonder why he was chosen to speak on air.

    https://order-order.com/2019/06/19/abdullah-bristol-wants-know-panel-agree-words-consequences/

    That Boris-booster Guido was even looking makes one suspect that he was not impressed by his man's handling of the question, especially when he let the Saj bounce him into conceding an inquiry (even if it can be kicked into the long grass).
    For some reason, the quoted twitter feed has gone. May be some surprised Guardian journalists and readers this morning.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/19/disappointing-and-deluded-imam-lambasts-tory-hopefuls-on-islamophobia
    All the woketard boxes were ticked with the questions last night - phobias, dead polar bears, evil cuts.

    All added to the farce.
    I think the clue was in the title "Our Next PM" so the questions came from across the political spectrum. They did not treat it as what it is, a leadership contest in a party currently running at 20% in the polls.
    Would have been far, far more insight if they had run it from a ConClub in Lancashire. "And any bugger swearing on telly will be barred from snooker room for a month."

    Emily Maitliss doesn't have the professional ability to differentiate her demeanour between being presented with a live living Tory and a steaming turd. Her one and only setting is "How could any sentient being EVER vote Tory?".
    Good question, though, based on current performance. I guess Boris was the winner of last night's debate by showing that he can actually turn up. The Tory Party was surely the loser by making all too clear that this lot should never be anywhere near power.
    It is a default though isn't it? The alternative is to let someone who admires the rulers of Venezuela near power.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    The site should be renamed. The negativity blog. Noone has anything positive to say about anything.

    If we get a liberal PM who reverses Brexit and is a diehard Remainer we might as that is where a plurality of PBers are
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    TGOHF said:

    dr_spyn said:

    dr_spyn said:

    It appears that Guido has had a look at a twitter feed of one of the questioners last night. He appears to have some very robust views, the uncharitable would wonder why he was chosen to speak on air.

    https://order-order.com/2019/06/19/abdullah-bristol-wants-know-panel-agree-words-consequences/

    That Boris-booster Guido was even looking makes one suspect that he was not impressed by his man's handling of the question, especially when he let the Saj bounce him into conceding an inquiry (even if it can be kicked into the long grass).
    For some reason, the quoted twitter feed has gone. May be some surprised Guardian journalists and readers this morning.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/19/disappointing-and-deluded-imam-lambasts-tory-hopefuls-on-islamophobia
    All the woketard boxes were ticked with the questions last night - phobias, dead polar bears, evil cuts.

    All added to the farce.
    I think the clue was in the title "Our Next PM" so the questions came from across the political spectrum. They did not treat it as what it is, a leadership contest in a party currently running at 20% in the polls.
    Combine the Tories and the Brexit Party though and you get to over 40% in the polls, the Tories only stay around 20% and neck and neck with the Brexit Party if they fail to pick Boris
    Combine the unicorns and the dragons and you get a phoenix.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    TGOHF said:
    Regardless of who this Abdullah is (and he was talking nonsense on his own twitter thread yesterday about anti-semitism being criminalised and therefore also wanting islamophobia criminalised - er, no and no), there are good reasons for the Tories to look at the beams in their own eyes in relation to anti-Muslim prejudice, and to do it properly, as I have previously argued here - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/08/what-might-the-tories-learn-from-labour/.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    nichomar said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Where was the commanding performance from Johnson that justifies his being seen as a shoo-in for the top job? He was defensive and evasive, even when competing with his friends.

    He buckled under the most gentle pressure. The tax cuts for higher earners are now merely an “ambition” about which we need to “have a debate”. On Heathrow he restated his “grave concerns” about expansion while effectively conceding he work.

    And he can only have been under scrutiny for ten minutes out of the hour!

    The members thinking Johnson will provide the strength and resolve that Mrs May apparently lacked surely cannot believe that we saw any of that last night? Mrs May would at least have sat there repeating the same inane phrase until the show got to the end. Boris wobbled and ducked and weaved and began to crumble. And has yet to face the opposition parties and an unfriendly parliament.

    You forgot to mention that Boris thinks that No Deal has a transition period, and that GATT 24 means we can trade tariff free with the EU after hard Brexit.

    The man is a blithering nincompoop.
    If that reflects what the Tory membership believes than he is still a shoo in...

    Which means November (or any general election) will be fun...
    The problem is these lies and half truths enter the vocabulary of the leaver who feels safe claiming that we can leave to wto rules and GATT 24 means there are no issues with tariffs. You must have come across such “experts” down the pub telling their mates there in nothing to worry about. Then if challenged they fall back on “they need us more than we need them” claiming they will bend over backwards to give us everything we want after a few days of mild disruption.
    And? It's too late now given the electorate of this vote so Boris will win and then the fun begins:If Boris goes for an election 1 of 2 things will occur: -

    1) The Tories and Nigel sign a deal and a full on campaign of tactical voting is organised - the Tories won't win a majority
    or 2) Nigel stands candidates against the Tories and the party is toast as their split is vote and their members don't know who and how to canvass...

    But if he doesn't call an election he needs to some how leave the EU and it's highly unlikely he will have a majority government as soon as he reveals his real plan...
    Nope, Boris gets a 7% lead over Labour and the LDs with the Brexit Party falling to just 13% even with a full slate of BP candidates with Yougov
    Before the election begins and before anyone really thought about what Boris really is.

    Those figures are going to disappear before Boris has won the election let alone afterwards...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Thoughts on Round 3.

    Boris - Underwhelming last night. Will pick up a good slice of Raab votes but will he get trimmed back by concerns over his contradictory messages. Will his big tent hold.

    Hunt - Limping along like a tired old dog that springs to life when he feels the urge. The establishment candidate just can't establish his dominance of second place. Inability to gain transfers from Hancock and Harper a concern.

    Gove - The "I've got a plan" candidate hasn't planned for his lack of traction. If he tries any harder his eyes will pop out. After Boris will pick up some Raab votes but his lacklustre transfer performance is telling.

    Rory - Excellent transfer performance but under performed last night. Will look to nibble away at the support of all the other four candidates. If his momentum continues he could leapfrog Gove and Hunt. Much better on "Today" programme this morning.

    Javid - Edged the debate last night but on the precipice of elimination. If Rory continues his momentum will have to overtake Hunt or Gove to stay in, which is a massive ask. The last position candidate usually faces the prospect of their support drifting away.

    ............................................

    With not a whole lot of faith on these numbers on account of the highly dubious nature of the electorate :

    Boris 140
    Rory - 50
    Gove - 46
    Hunt - 44
    Javid - 33
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    nichomar said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Where was the commanding performance from Johnson that justifies his being seen as a shoo-in for the top job? He was defensive and evasive, even when competing with his friends.

    He buckled under the most gentle pressure. The tax cuts for higher earners are now merely an “ambition” about which we need to “have y of that last ament.

    You forgot to mention that Boris thinks that No Deal has a transition period, and that GATT 24 means we can trade tariff free with the EU after hard Brexit.

    The man is a blithering nincompoop.
    If that reflects what the Tory membership believes than he is still a shoo in...

    Which means November (or any general election) will be fun...
    The problem is these lies and half truths enter the vocabulary of the leaver who feels safe claiming that we can leave to wto rules and GATT 24 means there are no issues with tariffs. You must have come across such “experts” down the pub telling their mates there in nothing to worry about. Then if challenged they fall back on “they need us more than we need them” claiming they will bend over backwards to give us everything we want after a few days of mild disruption.
    And? It's too late now given the electorate of this vote so Boris will win and then the fun begins:If Boris goes for an election 1 of 2 things will occur: -

    1) The Tories and Nigel sign a deal and a full on campaign of tactical voting is organised - the Tories won't win a majority
    or 2) Nigel stands candidates against the Tories and the party is toast as their split is vote and their members don't know who and how to canvass...

    But if he doesn't call an election he needs to some how leave the EU and it's highly unlikely he will have a majority government as soon as he reveals his real plan...
    Nope, Boris gets a 7% lead over Labour and the LDs with the Brexit Party falling to just 13% even with a full slate of BP candidates with Yougov
    Before the election begins and before anyone really thought about what Boris really is.

    Those figures are going to disappear before Boris has won the election let alone afterwards...
    No, as Boris will campaign on a deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal platform.

    Labour of course also has the problem to win back voters from the the LDs it needs a clear EUref2 commitment and if it gives that it loses Leave voting marginals like Peterborough and Barrow
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    TGOHF said:

    dr_spyn said:

    dr_spyn said:

    It appears that Guido has had a look at a twitter feed of one of the questioners last night. He appears to have some very robust views, the uncharitable would wonder why he was chosen to speak on air.

    https://order-order.com/2019/06/19/abdullah-bristol-wants-know-panel-agree-words-consequences/

    That Boris-booster Guido was even looking makes one suspect that he was not impressed by his man's handling of the question, especially when he let the Saj bounce him into conceding an inquiry (even if it can be kicked into the long grass).
    For some reason, the quoted twitter feed has gone. May be some surprised Guardian journalists and readers this morning.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/19/disappointing-and-deluded-imam-lambasts-tory-hopefuls-on-islamophobia
    All the woketard boxes were ticked with the questions last night - phobias, dead polar bears, evil cuts.

    All added to the farce.
    I think the clue was in the title "Our Next PM" so the questions came from across the political spectrum. They did not treat it as what it is, a leadership contest in a party currently running at 20% in the polls.
    Would have been far, far more insight if they had run it from a ConClub in Lancashire. "And any bugger swearing on telly will be barred from snooker room for a month."

    Emily Maitliss doesn't have the professional ability to differentiate her demeanour between being presented with a live living Tory and a steaming turd. Her one and only setting is "How could any sentient being EVER vote Tory?".
    Good question, though, based on current performance. I guess Boris was the winner of last night's debate by showing that he can actually turn up. The Tory Party was surely the loser by making all too clear that this lot should never be anywhere near power.
    So, Conservatives unfit to govern.
    Labour unfit to govern.
    The Lib Dems led by... stop tittering at the back... Jo Swinson.

    ... and some folk wonder why the SNP just keep on winning after twelve years in government.
    SNP 12% below its 2015 total still
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798

    The site should be renamed. The negativity blog. Noone has anything positive to say about anything.

    My kids and my wife are lovely. South East London is brilliant. All this rain has been great for the garden. I'm enjoying the Women's World Cup. I have loads of positive things to say as long as the topic isn't politics or Brexit.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The site should be renamed. The negativity blog. Noone has anything positive to say about anything.

    I like the new Yamaha TT700.
    It does look rather fun, but don't you think you might keep your licence longer on a Vespa?
    I have my licence back but my next speeding offence will almost certainly mean jail time. So, while life in the Royal Navy was first class preparation for eating dreadful food and sleeping in close proximity to highly enthusiastic masturbators, I am sticking to a mixed mode bicycle/Uber transportation system for now and only driving cars on track.
    I didn't realise that the Green Party organised track days.

    With Teslas?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    The site should be renamed. The negativity blog. Noone has anything positive to say about anything.

    I'm listening to Kanye's My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy this morning. It's still fantastic.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Regardless of who this Abdullah is (and he was talking nonsense on his own twitter thread yesterday about anti-semitism being criminalised and therefore also wanting islamophobia criminalised - er, no and no), there are good reasons for the Tories to look at the beams in their own eyes in relation to anti-Muslim prejudice, and to do it properly, as I have previously argued here - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/08/what-might-the-tories-learn-from-labour/.
    True, but the first thing to decide is how much of a beam there is in their own eye. The party may be a seething hotbed of anti Muslim prejudice or there may be isolated instances which are adequately dealt with on a case by case basis, plus a crude attempt by Labour to promote this into party wide, systemic prejudice as a tit for tat for anti Semitic. That decision needs making by the party in private, not on tv as an exercise in career furthering by javid.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    In disappointing news for conspiracy theorists...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48680715?ns_linkname=news_central&ns_campaign=bbc_politics&ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter

    _______________________________________
    "Of the five allegations reported, two incidents are currently being investigated to establish if any offences have been committed.

    "No arrests have been made."

    Peterborough Council said it received one report of alleged bribery prior to polling day, which was referred to police and resulted in no further action.

    It said another concern was received on polling day which was also referred to the police but could not be substantiated.

    The council said it had seen no evidence that postal voting fraud had taken place
    ______________________________________

    Or maybe this just proves the conspiracy theorists right, the police and the council are clearly in on it with the Muslims.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Cyclefree said:

    My husband saw the debate later after me and felt that Rory had not done at all badly. Son thought he was nervous or stressed because of the odd body language.

    But he was up again at the crack of dawn on the Today programme. Plugging his message.

    I’m not sure how much further he can go and, in many ways, it might be better not to be PM for the inevitable Brexit car crash. But he has done himself a load of good by his campaign and if MPs and voters don’t want to hear honesty, well, more fools them.

    It’s mot a high bar, admittedly, but I think he’s the best thing that’s come out of the Tory party for a long time.

    I agree 100%. He's genuine and actually willing to engage. I think he has respect right across the political spectrum.
    Unfortunately the membership of the Conservative Party of today is on a different spectrum in more ways than one.

    Does anyone know whether it is possible to get data on political party memberships? I would be interested to know how many new members have joined the Tory Party in, say, the last 10 years. When I was an activist there were always quite a few nutters, but those polls that were published on here yesterday really shocked me. If they were representative, the Conservative Party no longer exists.
    I would expect that there are a higher percentage of the 'Nutters' who have certain obsessions who have a greater motivation to be registered to vote on panels for various polls.

    It is possible that there is a silent majority of relatively sane members lurking in the background.

    I joined a couple of years ago to be able to vote for sanity. Not all new members will be of the same opinion as the poll respondents (I hope).
  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    nichomar said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Where was the commanding performance from Johnson that justifies his being seen as a shoo-in for the top job? He was defensive and evasive, even when competing with his friends.

    He buckled under the most gentle pressure. The tax cuts for higher earners are now merely an “ambition” about which we need to “have a debate”. On Heathrow he restated his “grave concerns” about expansion while effectively conceding he work.

    And he can only have been under scrutiny for ten minutes out of the hour!

    The members thinking Johnson will provide the strength and resolve that Mrs May apparently lacked surely cannot believe that we saw any of that last night? Mrs May would at least have sat there repeating the same inane phrase until the show got to the end. Boris wobbled and ducked and weaved and began to crumble. And has yet to face the opposition parties and an unfriendly parliament.

    You forgot to mention that Boris thinks that No Deal has a transition period, and that GATT 24 means we can trade tariff free with the EU after hard Brexit.

    The man is a blithering nincompoop.
    If that reflects what the Tory membership believes than he is still a shoo in...

    Which means November (or any general election) will be fun...
    The problem is these lies and half truths enter the vocabulary of the leaver who feels safe claiming that we can leave to wto rules and GATT 24 means there are no issues with tariffs. You must have come across such “experts” down the pub telling their mates there in nothing to worry about. Then if challenged they fall back on “they need us more than we need them” claiming they will bend over backwards to give us everything we want after a few days of mild disruption.
    And? It's too late now given the electorate of this vote so Boris will win and then the fun begins:If Boris goes for an election 1 of 2 things will occur: -

    1) The Tories and Nigel sign a deal and a full on campaign of tactical voting is organised - the Tories won't win a majority
    or 2) Nigel stands candidates against the Tories and the party is toast as their split is vote and their members don't know who and how to canvass...

    But if he doesn't call an election he needs to some how leave the EU and it's highly unlikely he will have a majority government as soon as he reveals his real plan...
    Nope, Boris gets a 7% lead over Labour and the LDs with the Brexit Party falling to just 13% even with a full slate of BP candidates with Yougov
    You also said a Corbyn lead-Labour party would top out at 25% in a general election.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The site should be renamed. The negativity blog. Noone has anything positive to say about anything.

    I like the new Yamaha TT700.
    It does look rather fun, but don't you think you might keep your licence longer on a Vespa?
    I have my licence back but my next speeding offence will almost certainly mean jail time. So, while life in the Royal Navy was first class preparation for eating dreadful food and sleeping in close proximity to highly enthusiastic masturbators, I am sticking to a mixed mode bicycle/Uber transportation system for now and only driving cars on track.
    Perhaps one of these might be in order, perfect transport for a woke matelot flyboy :)

    https://en.simplemobility.org/
    I'd like one of these but they are very expensive.

    https://www.energicamotor.com/energica-ego-electric-motorcycle/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Trump launches his 2020 re election campaign with a big rally in Florida last night calling the state 'his second home'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48681573
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    philiph said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My husband saw the debate later after me and felt that Rory had not done at all badly. Son thought he was nervous or stressed because of the odd body language.

    But he was up again at the crack of dawn on the Today programme. Plugging his message.

    I’m not sure how much further he can go and, in many ways, it might be better not to be PM for the inevitable Brexit car crash. But he has done himself a load of good by his campaign and if MPs and voters don’t want to hear honesty, well, more fools them.

    It’s mot a high bar, admittedly, but I think he’s the best thing that’s come out of the Tory party for a long time.

    I agree 100%. He's genuine and actually willing to engage. I think he has respect right across the political spectrum.
    Unfortunately the membership of the Conservative Party of today is on a different spectrum in more ways than one.

    Does anyone know whether it is possible to get data on political party memberships? I would be interested to know how many new members have joined the Tory Party in, say, the last 10 years. When I was an activist there were always quite a few nutters, but those polls that were published on here yesterday really shocked me. If they were representative, the Conservative Party no longer exists.
    I would expect that there are a higher percentage of the 'Nutters' who have certain obsessions who have a greater motivation to be registered to vote on panels for various polls.

    It is possible that there is a silent majority of relatively sane members lurking in the background.

    I joined a couple of years ago to be able to vote for sanity. Not all new members will be of the same opinion as the poll respondents (I hope).
    Boris won more votes than all other candidates combined in a straw poll at a meeting of my Association last week
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Scott_P said:
    Zahawi backed Raab, now firmly in the Boris camp
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Scott_P said:
    There is a distinct possibility that a majority of them are.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    philiph said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My husband saw the debate later after me and felt that Rory had not done at all badly. Son thought he was nervous or stressed because of the odd body language.

    But he was up again at the crack of dawn on the Today programme. Plugging his message.

    I’m not sure how much further he can go and, in many ways, it might be better not to be PM for the inevitable Brexit car crash. But he has done himself a load of good by his campaign and if MPs and voters don’t want to hear honesty, well, more fools them.

    It’s mot a high bar, admittedly, but I think he’s the best thing that’s come out of the Tory party for a long time.

    I agree 100%. He's genuine and actually willing to engage. I think he has respect right across the political spectrum.
    Unfortunately the membership of the Conservative Party of today is on a different spectrum in more ways than one.

    Does anyone know whether it is possible to get data on political party memberships? I would be interested to know how many new members have joined the Tory Party in, say, the last 10 years. When I was an activist there were always quite a few nutters, but those polls that were published on here yesterday really shocked me. If they were representative, the Conservative Party no longer exists.
    I would expect that there are a higher percentage of the 'Nutters' who have certain obsessions who have a greater motivation to be registered to vote on panels for various polls.

    It is possible that there is a silent majority of relatively sane members lurking in the background.

    I joined a couple of years ago to be able to vote for sanity. Not all new members will be of the same opinion as the poll respondents (I hope).
    That poll of Conservative members yesterday caused serious and genuine distress in the Scottish Conservative ranks. More please!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sounds like my policy of never watching debates was correctly applied again last night.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The site should be renamed. The negativity blog. Noone has anything positive to say about anything.

    I like the new Yamaha TT700.
    It does look rather fun, but don't you think you might keep your licence longer on a Vespa?
    I have my licence back but my next speeding offence will almost certainly mean jail time. So, while life in the Royal Navy was first class preparation for eating dreadful food and sleeping in close proximity to highly enthusiastic masturbators, I am sticking to a mixed mode bicycle/Uber transportation system for now and only driving cars on track.
    Perhaps one of these might be in order, perfect transport for a woke matelot flyboy :)

    https://en.simplemobility.org/
    I'd like one of these but they are very expensive.

    https://www.energicamotor.com/energica-ego-electric-motorcycle/
    Yes, does sound exciting!

    After pointy nosed jets, I guess everything seems a bit tame.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    Phukov said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    nichomar said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Where was the commanding performance from Johnson that justifies his being seen as a shoo-in for the top job? He was defensive and evasive, even when competing with his friends.

    He buckled under the most gentle pressure. The tax cuts for higher earners are now merely an “ambition” about which we need to “have a debate”. On Heathrow he restated his “grave concerns” about expansion while effectively conceding he work.

    And he can only have been under scrutiny for ten minutes out of the hour!

    The members thinking Johnson will provide the strength and resolve that Mrs May apparently lacked surely cannot believe that we saw any of that last night? ent.

    You forgot to mention that Boris thinks that No Deal has a transition period, and that GATT 24 means we can trade tariff free with the EU after hard Brexit.

    The man is a blithering nincompoop.
    If that reflects what the Tory membership believes than he is still a shoo in...

    Which means November (or any general election) will be fun...
    The problem is these lies and half truths enter the vocabulary of the leaver who feels safe claiming that we can leave to wto rules and GATT 24 means there are no issues with tariffs. You must have come across such “experts” down the pub telling their mates there in nothing to worry about. Then if challenged they fall back on “they need us more than we need them” claiming they will bend over backwards to give us everything we want after a few days of mild disruption.
    And? It's too late now given the electorate of this vote so Boris will win and then the fun begins:If Boris goes for an election 1 of 2 things will occur: -

    1) The Tories and Nigel sign a deal and a full on campaign of tactical voting is organised - the Tories won't win a majority
    or 2) Nigel stands candidates against the Tories and the party is toast as their split is vote and their members don't know who and how to canvass...

    But if he doesn't call an election he needs to some how leave the EU and it's highly unlikely he will have a majority government as soon as he reveals his real plan...
    Nope, Boris gets a 7% lead over Labour and the LDs with the Brexit Party falling to just 13% even with a full slate of BP candidates with Yougov
    You also said a Corbyn lead-Labour party would top out at 25% in a general election.
    Corbyn Labour is currently polling just 21% in the latest poll, it only got to 40% at the last general election with Corbyn pretending to both Remainers and Labour Leavers he was on their side, many of them are now voting LD or Brexit Party respectively
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    philiph said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My husband saw the debate later after me and felt that Rory had not done at all badly. Son thought he was nervous or stressed because of the odd body language.

    But he was up again at the crack of dawn on the Today programme. Plugging his message.

    I’m not sure how much further he can go and, in many ways, it might be better not to be PM for the inevitable Brexit car crash. But he has done himself a load of good by his campaign and if MPs and voters don’t want to hear honesty, well, more fools them.

    It’s mot a high bar, admittedly, but I think he’s the best thing that’s come out of the Tory party for a long time.

    I agree 100%. He's genuine and actually willing to engage. I think he has respect right across the political spectrum.
    Unfortunately the membership of the Conservative Party of today is on a different spectrum in more ways than one.

    Does anyone know whether it is possible to get data on political party memberships? I would be interested to know how many new members have joined the Tory Party in, say, the last 10 years. When I was an activist there were always quite a few nutters, but those polls that were published on here yesterday really shocked me. If they were representative, the Conservative Party no longer exists.
    I would expect that there are a higher percentage of the 'Nutters' who have certain obsessions who have a greater motivation to be registered to vote on panels for various polls.

    It is possible that there is a silent majority of relatively sane members lurking in the background.

    I joined a couple of years ago to be able to vote for sanity. Not all new members will be of the same opinion as the poll respondents (I hope).
    Boris won more votes than all other candidates combined in a straw poll at a meeting of my Association last week
    Which just proves Nigel_Foremain’s point.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    edited June 2019
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Regardless of who this Abdullah is (and he was talking nonsense on his own twitter thread yesterday about anti-semitism being criminalised and therefore also wanting islamophobia criminalised - er, no and no), there are good reasons for the Tories to look at the beams in their own eyes in relation to anti-Muslim prejudice, and to do it properly, as I have previously argued here - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/08/what-might-the-tories-learn-from-labour/.
    True, but the first thing to decide is how much of a beam there is in their own eye. The party may be a seething hotbed of anti Muslim prejudice or there may be isolated instances which are adequately dealt with on a case by case basis, plus a crude attempt by Labour to promote this into party wide, systemic prejudice as a tit for tat for anti Semitic. That decision needs making by the party in private, not on tv as an exercise in career furthering by javid.
    I agree that Labour has an agenda here. But to refuse to do something just because you don’t want to give ground to your opponents is the wrong approach.

    Nonetheless, the Tories should go on the front foot on this for a number of reasons:-

    1. It’s the right thing to do.
    2. To stop isolated cases turning into something more systemic.
    3. To be able to answer attacks from their opponents.
    4. To have clean hands when attacking the anti-semitism in Labour.
    5. To show the rest of us that they recognise the dangers of allowing themselves to be consumed by hatred of a minority.
    6. To put themselves in a strong position to define anti-Muslim prejudice in a way which deals with the real mischief without shutting down the right to criticise a religion or its practices, which the weasel word Islamophobia (especially as defined by some) most emphatically does not do.

    And if it’s left to them in private I suspect they would either do nothing at all or do a half-assed job.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Seems that @cyclefree and @anazina misunderstood my views last night

    1. Sign the WA. This includes a U.K. wide backstop
    2. Try to negotiate a U.K. wide FTA
    3. If this proves not to be possible on acceptable terms then, AIUI, the U.K. government has the unilateral right to terminate the backstop *for the GB only*
    4. Hence termination of the backstop results in a situation where NI and GB have customs checks between the (NB @cyclefree I am referring to an Irish Sea border not a hard border between NI and Eire)
    5. This is clearly very difficult for Unionists and represents a significant change in the status of NI
    6. Under the GFA this requires the consent of the people of NI, hence a referendum
    7. If they vote to leave the backstop then, yes, there is a hard border between North and South. If they vote to stay in the backstop there are checks in the Irish Sea. Either way this is done with the explicit consent of the people of NI

    Hope that’s clearer?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    philiph said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My husband saw the debate later after me and felt that Rory had not done at all badly. Son thought he was nervous or stressed because of the odd body language.

    But he was up again at the crack of dawn on the Today programme. Plugging his message.

    I’m not sure how much further he can go and, in many ways, it might be better not to be PM for the inevitable Brexit car crash. But he has done himself a load of good by his campaign and if MPs and voters don’t want to hear honesty, well, more fools them.

    It’s mot a high bar, admittedly, but I think he’s the best thing that’s come out of the Tory party for a long time.

    I agree 100%. He's genuine and actually willing to engage. I think he has respect right across the political spectrum.
    Unfortunately the membership of the Conservative Party of today is on a different spectrum in more ways than one.

    Does anyone know whether it is possible to get data on political party memberships? I would be interested to know how many new members have joined the Tory Party in, say, the last 10 years. When I was an activist there were always quite a few nutters, but those polls that were published on here yesterday really shocked me. If they were representative, the Conservative Party no longer exists.
    I would expect that there are a higher percentage of the 'Nutters' who have certain obsessions who have a greater motivation to be registered to vote on panels for various polls.

    It is possible that there is a silent majority of relatively sane members lurking in the background.

    I joined a couple of years ago to be able to vote for sanity. Not all new members will be of the same opinion as the poll respondents (I hope).
    That poll of Conservative members yesterday caused serious and genuine distress in the Scottish Conservative ranks. More please!
    Scottish Conservatives currently tied with the Brexit Party in Scotland?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Charles said:

    Seems that @cyclefree and @anazina misunderstood my views last night

    1. Sign the WA. This includes a U.K. wide backstop
    2. Try to negotiate a U.K. wide FTA
    3. If this proves not to be possible on acceptable terms then, AIUI, the U.K. government has the unilateral right to terminate the backstop *for the GB only*
    4. Hence termination of the backstop results in a situation where NI and GB have customs checks between the (NB @cyclefree I am referring to an Irish Sea border not a hard border between NI and Eire)
    5. This is clearly very difficult for Unionists and represents a significant change in the status of NI
    6. Under the GFA this requires the consent of the people of NI, hence a referendum
    7. If they vote to leave the backstop then, yes, there is a hard border between North and South. If they vote to stay in the backstop there are checks in the Irish Sea. Either way this is done with the explicit consent of the people of NI

    Hope that’s clearer?

    Yes, thanks.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884

    The site should be renamed. The negativity blog. Noone has anything positive to say about anything.

    PoliticalFretting.com?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    HYUFD said:

    The site should be renamed. The negativity blog. Noone has anything positive to say about anything.

    If we get a liberal PM who reverses Brexit and is a diehard Remainer we might as that is where a plurality of PBers are
    Right wing and very pro-EU is a niche market
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    TGOHF said:
    I think the best worse case scenario would be Gove backed by Rory. If we have got to have a brexiter as PM (which is a bit like putting a vandal in charge of local law and order), then this would be better than Boris.
    You betray your own bias. However many members I think distrust Gove due to his backing the WA to the bitter end and refusal to speak up for alternatives. If he is backed by Rory that would I believe confirm the suspicions.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The site should be renamed. The negativity blog. Noone has anything positive to say about anything.

    I like the new Yamaha TT700.
    It does look rather fun, but don't you think you might keep your licence longer on a Vespa?
    I have my licence back but my next speeding offence will almost certainly mean jail time. So, while life in the Royal Navy was first class preparation for eating dreadful food and sleeping in close proximity to highly enthusiastic masturbators, I am sticking to a mixed mode bicycle/Uber transportation system for now and only driving cars on track.
    I didn't realise that the Green Party organised track days.

    With Teslas?
    Why not?
    I'm not a Green Party member, but why shouldn't they have fun while not adding to our Climate Change problems?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Zahawi backed Raab, now firmly in the Boris camp

    Zahawi is really quite dim. He talks nicely. But listen to what he says and you realise that there really is not much there. That’s the case for a surprisingly large number of MPs.

  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Where was the commanding performance from Johnson that justifies his being seen as a shoo-in for the top job? He was defensive and evasive, even when competing with his friends.

    He buckled under the most gentle pressure. The tax cuts for higher earners are now merely an “ambition” about which we need to “have a debate”. On Heathrow he restated his “grave concerns” about expansion while effectively conceding he would let it go ahead anyway. He got bounced into conceding an inquiry into Conservative islamophobia that he clearly doesn’t want, which will give new legs to the stories about his various previous remarks. Having tried to make 31 October a red line, he was pushed into conceding himself at least a little wriggle room (now Raab is gone, Brexit is back on the slippery slope). And he had no answer to Hunt’s putative sheep farmer whom a no deal exit would put out of work.

    And he can only have been under scrutiny for ten minutes out of the hour!

    The members thinking Johnson will provide the strength and resolve that Mrs May apparently lacked surely cannot believe that we saw any of that last night? Mrs May would at least have sat there repeating the same inane phrase until the show got to the end. Boris wobbled and ducked and weaved and began to crumble. And has yet to face the opposition parties and an unfriendly parliament.

    You forgot to mention that Boris thinks that No Deal has a transition period, and that GATT 24 means we can trade tariff free with the EU after hard Brexit.

    The man is a blithering nincompoop.
    Doesn’t a blithering nincompoop make an ideal leader of the blithering nincompoop party?
    That's the nub of the problem. Given the Tory membership the next leader has to come from the very limited pool of MPs that believes (or pretends to believe) that a No Deal Brexit will be fine. Is it any wonder we are seeing what we are seeing?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    The site should be renamed. The negativity blog. Noone has anything positive to say about anything.

    The worst thing, in my opinion, is the amount of times people call others who disagree with them ‘thick’ or imply they are suffering with some kind of mental illness. The worst culprits have made the kind of bloopers themselves that they would characterise as ‘thick’, but seem oblivious to it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758


    Does it matter? It ought to matter. It certainly should but why is the standing of British universities not reflected in economic or industrial benefits, as in the United States or, as you say, increasingly China?

    It cannot be that the league tables are wrong. We do win more than our share of Nobel Prizes, for instance, so we must be doing something right.

    There may be soft power or influence to be taken into account. Many foreign leaders have studied here, and presumably we take some lasting benefit from that.

    On the rise of China, SeanT saw this years ago, and warned against George Osborne cutting British research.

    If you look at the top 50 universities in that list, you see that the major players are the US, the UK and the Far East (China/Singapore/Japan)

    We are told that we have to be in the EU, because the big power blocks in the future will be the EU, the US and China.

    So, at face value, what that list tells you is what a shitty job the EU is doing in promoting European research and training in the EU universities.

    The list isn't telling you that it is the fault of George Osborne or Brexit.

    Once the UK leaves, the EU will have TWO universities in the top 50. There is no
    way that is anything other than a very poor result for the EU in research and training.
    True. Except our dominance of the European university scene is not reflected in relative economic performance. That is what I was getting at. I don't know why, but we do not seem to enjoy the spin-offs other countries do.
    I chaired the commercialisation committee for a university for a few years. Academics were generally completely unwilling to engage with anything that distracted them from their academic pursuits
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Charles said:

    Seems that @cyclefree and @anazina misunderstood my views last night

    1. Sign the WA.

    I think I've found the flaw in the 7 point plan.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    IanB2 said:

    I’ve topped up on the Saj this morning, who is now my best result.

    Given there’s barely 13 votes between all of those in the number two position virtually anything could happen. So 100/1 is value, particularly since he came across pleasantly human last night.

    Laying Boris is surely now the best strategy, on the assumption that there is bound to be at least a small wobble in his campaign, once he is forced out onto the stump against one of his colleagues?
    Perhaps - but any such wobble might come when he is 1.05 and only push him out to 1.08.

    The more general issue with "lay Boris because something might happen" is that people would be offering the same advice and we'd be having the same debate if he was 1.10 or 1.50.

    My biggest greens remain Gove & Javid. If Hunt has been propped up by Boris (it's widely rumoured that he has, and his own team ought to know, given their whipping) then his own genuine supporters may start to flake. He could come under some pressure to withdraw to avoid making a mockery of the contest.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    HYUFD said:

    philiph said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My husband saw the debate later after me and felt that Rory had not done at all badly. Son thought he was nervous or stressed because of the odd body language.

    But he was up again at the crack of dawn on the Today programme. Plugging his message.

    I’m not sure how much further he can go and, in many ways, it might be better not to be PM for the inevitable Brexit car crash. But he has done himself a load of good by his campaign and if MPs and voters don’t want to hear honesty, well, more fools them.

    It’s mot a high bar, admittedly, but I think he’s the best thing that’s come out of the Tory party for a long time.

    I agree 100%. He's genuine and actually willing to engage. I think he has respect right across the political spectrum.
    Unfortunately the membership of the Conservative Party of today is on a different spectrum in more ways than one.

    Does anyone know whether it is possible to get data on political party memberships? I would be interested to know how many new members have joined the Tory Party in, say, the last 10 years. When I was an activist there were always quite a few nutters, but those polls that were published on here yesterday really shocked me. If they were representative, the Conservative Party no longer exists.
    I would expect that there are a higher percentage of the 'Nutters' who have certain obsessions who have a greater motivation to be registered to vote on panels for various polls.

    It is possible that there is a silent majority of relatively sane members lurking in the background.

    I joined a couple of years ago to be able to vote for sanity. Not all new members will be of the same opinion as the poll respondents (I hope).
    Boris won more votes than all other candidates combined in a straw poll at a meeting of my Association last week
    Which just proves Nigel_Foremain’s point.
    All parties have moved to the extremes as I suspect most people have other things to think about...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    IanB2 said:

    I’ve topped up on the Saj this morning, who is now my best result.

    Given there’s barely 13 votes between all of those in the number two position virtually anything could happen. So 100/1 is value, particularly since he came across pleasantly human last night.

    Laying Boris is surely now the best strategy, on the assumption that there is bound to be at least a small wobble in his campaign, once he is forced out onto the stump against one of his colleagues?
    Perhaps - but any such wobble might come when he is 1.05 and only push him out to 1.08.

    The more general issue with "lay Boris because something might happen" is that people would be offering the same advice and we'd be having the same debate if he was 1.10 or 1.50.

    My biggest greens remain Gove & Javid. If Hunt has been propped up by Boris (it's widely rumoured that he has, and his own team ought to know, given their whipping) then his own genuine supporters may start to flake. He could come under some pressure to withdraw to avoid making a mockery of the contest.
    I laid Hunt at 1.63 to make final 2 on the back of that advice 👍🏻
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    JackW said:

    Thoughts on Round 3.

    Boris - Underwhelming last night. Will pick up a good slice of Raab votes but will he get trimmed back by concerns over his contradictory messages. Will his big tent hold.

    Hunt - Limping along like a tired old dog that springs to life when he feels the urge. The establishment candidate just can't establish his dominance of second place. Inability to gain transfers from Hancock and Harper a concern.

    Gove - The "I've got a plan" candidate hasn't planned for his lack of traction. If he tries any harder his eyes will pop out. After Boris will pick up some Raab votes but his lacklustre transfer performance is telling.

    Rory - Excellent transfer performance but under performed last night. Will look to nibble away at the support of all the other four candidates. If his momentum continues he could leapfrog Gove and Hunt. Much better on "Today" programme this morning.

    Javid - Edged the debate last night but on the precipice of elimination. If Rory continues his momentum will have to overtake Hunt or Gove to stay in, which is a massive ask. The last position candidate usually faces the prospect of their support drifting away.

    ............................................

    With not a whole lot of faith on these numbers on account of the highly dubious nature of the electorate :

    Boris 140
    Rory - 50
    Gove - 46
    Hunt - 44
    Javid - 33

    I'd be happy with that outcome. Would you support Rory or Boris if they are the final two (apologies if you've already told us).
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Dura_Ace said:

    Charles said:

    Seems that @cyclefree and @anazina misunderstood my views last night

    1. Sign the WA.

    I think I've found the flaw in the 7 point plan.
    Unless you sign the WA it's popcorn time...
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited June 2019
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Regardless of who this Abdullah is (and he was talking nonsense on his own twitter thread yesterday about anti-semitism being criminalised and therefore also wanting islamophobia criminalised - er, no and no), there are good reasons for the Tories to look at the beams in their own eyes in relation to anti-Muslim prejudice, and to do it properly, as I have previously argued here - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/08/what-might-the-tories-learn-from-labour/.
    True, but the first thing to decide is how much of a beam there is in their own eye. The party may be a seething hotbed of anti Muslim prejudice or there may be isolated instances which are adequately dealt with on a case by case basis, plus a crude attempt by Labour to promote this into party wide, systemic prejudice as a tit for tat for anti Semitic. That decision needs making by the party in private, not on tv as an exercise in career furthering by javid.
    Didn't the Tories and their various media allies help push the anti semitism line within Labour to cover for exactly this and the xenophobia of the Brexit campaign they engaged in? No surprise to anyone they stepped it up after the Brexit campaign.

    Don't worry that we just won a campaign lying about Millions of Turks coming and whipping up xenophobia and now we are making 'go home' vans Theresa May PM...

    Look over there!

    The majority of the beam is planted firmly in the Tories eyes.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The site should be renamed. The negativity blog. Noone has anything positive to say about anything.

    I like the new Yamaha TT700.
    It does look rather fun, but don't you think you might keep your licence longer on a Vespa?
    I have my licence back but my next speeding offence will almost certainly mean jail time. So, while life in the Royal Navy was first class preparation for eating dreadful food and sleeping in close proximity to highly enthusiastic masturbators, I am sticking to a mixed mode bicycle/Uber transportation system for now and only driving cars on track.
    I didn't realise that the Green Party organised track days.

    With Teslas?
    Why not?
    I'm not a Green Party member, but why shouldn't they have fun while not adding to our Climate Change problems?
    How do you imagine the national grid is powered?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Dura_Ace said:

    Charles said:

    Seems that @cyclefree and @anazina misunderstood my views last night

    1. Sign the WA.

    I think I've found the flaw in the 7 point plan.
    There are three options.

    1. Leave with a deal, which means the WA
    2. No deal
    3. No leave.

    Rory is the only one which has been honest with this.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    The site should be renamed. The negativity blog. Noone has anything positive to say about anything.

    A ray of sunshine speaks.

    Doubt remainers see much to be positive about right now so it's down to the leavers to lift the nation's spirits by sharing their visions of the sunlit uplands and marvellous times ahead. (I won't be holding my breath)
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    I wonder if you track the changing profile of conservative members (as has been suggested on here) against the kind of candidate they select? Are the more recent recruits more anti EU and to the right rather than the one nation people who used to be selected.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited June 2019
    After last night's disaster Rory is clearly a non-candidate and is just in this to troll everyone and get a vanity kick.

    The Conservative Party have indulged him for far too long.

    If he goes any further in this contest today it will be clear that the Tories have gone mad (as though we didn't know that already)
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    I’ve topped up on the Saj this morning, who is now my best result.

    Given there’s barely 13 votes between all of those in the number two position virtually anything could happen. So 100/1 is value, particularly since he came across pleasantly human last night.

    Laying Boris is surely now the best strategy, on the assumption that there is bound to be at least a small wobble in his campaign, once he is forced out onto the stump against one of his colleagues?
    Perhaps - but any such wobble might come when he is 1.05 and only push him out to 1.08.

    The more general issue with "lay Boris because something might happen" is that people would be offering the same advice and we'd be having the same debate if he was 1.10 or 1.50.

    My biggest greens remain Gove & Javid. If Hunt has been propped up by Boris (it's widely rumoured that he has, and his own team ought to know, given their whipping) then his own genuine supporters may start to flake. He could come under some pressure to withdraw to avoid making a mockery of the contest.
    I laid Hunt at 1.63 to make final 2 on the back of that advice 👍🏻
    I'm heavily pro-Gove to make the final. Tbf, I am also anti-Boris to make the final two (it seemed cheaper and more sensible than opposing him on the main market, where he's a decent winner - thanks Andrea).

    It looks like Boris has the numbers to pick his opponent if he really wants to. But it is a dangerous game: any MPs involved in vote-lending leave themselves very exposed for the rest of their careers.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    The site should be renamed. The negativity blog. Noone has anything positive to say about anything.

    If we get a liberal PM who reverses Brexit and is a diehard Remainer we might as that is where a plurality of PBers are
    Right wing and very pro-EU is a niche market
    But, an influential one.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    edited June 2019
    JackW said:

    Thoughts on Round 3.

    Boris - Underwhelming last night. Will pick up a good slice of Raab votes but will he get trimmed back by concerns over his contradictory messages. Will his big tent hold.

    Hunt - Limping along like a tired old dog that springs to life when he feels the urge. The establishment candidate just can't establish his dominance of second place. Inability to gain transfers from Hancock and Harper a concern.

    Gove - The "I've got a plan" candidate hasn't planned for his lack of traction. If he tries any harder his eyes will pop out. After Boris will pick up some Raab votes but his lacklustre transfer performance is telling.

    Rory - Excellent transfer performance but under performed last night. Will look to nibble away at the support of all the other four candidates. If his momentum continues he could leapfrog Gove and Hunt. Much better on "Today" programme this morning.

    Javid - Edged the debate last night but on the precipice of elimination. If Rory continues his momentum will have to overtake Hunt or Gove to stay in, which is a massive ask. The last position candidate usually faces the prospect of their support drifting away.

    ............................................

    With not a whole lot of faith on these numbers on account of the highly dubious nature of the electorate :

    Boris 140
    Rory - 50
    Gove - 46
    Hunt - 44
    Javid - 33

    That would be a bit of a shocker... surely leading inevitiably to a Boris vs Rory members vote?

    Boris would clearly win that members vote but it would at least show that there is still room for some sanity in the Tory party.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I was heavily red on Rory Stewart but the reaction to the debate last night seems to have been overdone so I've returned him to neutral for now, with a view to laying him again later on if the opportunity presents itself.

    If as he hinted he teamed up with Michael Gove, in either order, the prospects of the lead candidate of that pairing would improve markedly.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Cyclefree said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Regardless of who this Abdullah is (and he was talking nonsense on his own twitter thread yesterday about anti-semitism being criminalised and therefore also wanting islamophobia criminalised - er, no and no), there are good reasons for the Tories to look at the beams in their own eyes in relation to anti-Muslim prejudice, and to do it properly, as I have previously argued here - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/08/what-might-the-tories-learn-from-labour/.
    True, but the first thing to decide is how much of a beam there is in their own eye. The party may be a seething hotbed of anti Muslim prejudice or there may be isolated instances which are adequately dealt with on a case by case basis, plus a crude attempt by Labour to promote this into party wide, systemic prejudice as a tit for tat for anti Semitic. That decision needs making by the party in private, not on tv as an exercise in career furthering by javid.
    I agree that Labour has an agenda here. But to refuse to do something just because you don’t want to give ground to your opponents is the wrong approach.

    Nonetheless, the Tories should go on the front foot on this for a number of reasons:-

    1. It’s the right thing to do.
    2. To stop isolated cases turning into something more systemic.
    3. To be able to answer attacks from their opponents.
    4. To have clean hands when attacking the anti-semitism in Labour.
    5. To show the rest of us that they recognise the dangers of allowing themselves to be consumed by hatred of a minority.
    6. To put themselves in a strong position to define anti-Muslim prejudice in a way which deals with the real mischief without shutting down the right to criticise a religion or its practices, which the weasel word Islamophobia (especially as defined by some) most emphatically does not do.

    And if it’s left to them in private I suspect they would either do nothing at all or do a half-assed job.
    All that is right, but Javid's taking it opportunistically up as a way to embarrass members of his own party and without thought as to consequences looked seriously lightweight and nasty.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572



    Which just proves Nigel_Foremain’s point.

    I dont think it does. As I understand it from his previous postings Nigel believes that the Tory party is suffering from entryism and a concerted effort to shift the party to a more hardline anti-EU position. I think this is wishful thinking on his part as farcas the cause is concerned. Over the last decade the Tory party had lost very large numbers of members who have moved to more explicitly anti-EU parties. Indeed the left of the party as represented by members posting on here have celebrated this as a means of getting rid of those they disagree with.

    Now they are finding that those who are left behind are still strongly anti-EU as a group and that the pro EU faction as represented by Heseltine and Nigel are in fact a very small minority.

    It would be good to see Stewart in the final two to get some calibration for these opposing views.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    GIN1138 said:

    After last night's disaster Rory is clearly a non-candidate and is just in this to to troll everyone and get a vanity kick.

    The Conservative Party have indulged him for far too long.

    If he goes any further in this contest today it will be clear that the Tories have gone mad (as though we didn't know that already)

    This seasons Change UK for the slither of Centrists to get over excited about. Behind Gove in the betting now.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491

    IanB2 said:

    I’ve topped up on the Saj this morning, who is now my best result.

    Given there’s barely 13 votes between all of those in the number two position virtually anything could happen. So 100/1 is value, particularly since he came across pleasantly human last night.

    Laying Boris is surely now the best strategy, on the assumption that there is bound to be at least a small wobble in his campaign, once he is forced out onto the stump against one of his colleagues?
    Perhaps - but any such wobble might come when he is 1.05 and only push him out to 1.08.

    The more general issue with "lay Boris because something might happen" is that people would be offering the same advice and we'd be having the same debate if he was 1.10 or 1.50.

    My biggest greens remain Gove & Javid. If Hunt has been propped up by Boris (it's widely rumoured that he has, and his own team ought to know, given their whipping) then his own genuine supporters may start to flake. He could come under some pressure to withdraw to avoid making a mockery of the contest.
    I’m now in a similar position too.

    Javid’s odds of 100/1 are ridiculous.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005

    In disappointing news for conspiracy theorists...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48680715?ns_linkname=news_central&ns_campaign=bbc_politics&ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter

    _______________________________________
    "Of the five allegations reported, two incidents are currently being investigated to establish if any offences have been committed.

    "No arrests have been made."

    Peterborough Council said it received one report of alleged bribery prior to polling day, which was referred to police and resulted in no further action.

    It said another concern was received on polling day which was also referred to the police but could not be substantiated.

    The council said it had seen no evidence that postal voting fraud had taken place
    ______________________________________

    Or maybe this just proves the conspiracy theorists right, the police and the council are clearly in on it with the Muslims.

    Don't think that's going to satisfy Rod the racist. The Peterborough constabulary are probably up to their oxters in Bombay aloo.

    https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1140375910480322560
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    What was Abdullah saying on twitter before his account mysteriously vanished this morning?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    The site should be renamed. The negativity blog. Noone has anything positive to say about anything.

    If we get a liberal PM who reverses Brexit and is a diehard Remainer we might as that is where a plurality of PBers are
    Right wing and very pro-EU is a niche market
    Could be worth occupying then. Being left wing and pro-EU was unheard of back in the eighties.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Charles said:


    Does it matter? It ought to matter. It certainly should but why is the standing of British universities not reflected in economic or industrial benefits, as in the United States or, as you say, increasingly China?

    It cannot be that the league tables are wrong. We do win more than our share of Nobel Prizes, for instance, so we must be doing something right.

    There may be soft power or influence to be taken into account. Many foreign leaders have studied here, and presumably we take some lasting benefit from that.

    On the rise of China, SeanT saw this years ago, and warned against George Osborne cutting British research.

    If you look at the top 50 universities in that list, you see that the major players are the US, the UK and the Far East (China/Singapore/Japan)

    We are told that we have to be in the EU, because the big power blocks in the future will be the EU, the US and China.

    So, at face value, what that list tells you is what a shitty job the EU is doing in promoting European research and training in the EU universities.

    The list isn't telling you that it is the fault of George Osborne or Brexit.

    Once the UK leaves, the EU will have TWO universities in the top 50. There is no
    way that is anything other than a very poor result for the EU in research and training.
    True. Except our dominance of the European university scene is not reflected in relative economic performance. That is what I was getting at. I don't know why, but we do not seem to enjoy the spin-offs other countries do.
    I chaired the commercialisation committee for a university for a few years. Academics were generally completely unwilling to engage with anything that distracted them from their academic pursuits
    Which is unsurprising since, in the most part, that’s why they became academics.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited June 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    After last night's disaster Rory is clearly a non-candidate and is just in this to troll everyone and get a vanity kick.

    The Conservative Party have indulged him for far too long.

    If he goes any further in this contest today it will be clear that the Tories have gone mad (as though we didn't know that already)

    He's come a shockingly long way in a very short space of time, because of both social and intellectual skills. This is why he'll clearly be in the frame next time around.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    nichomar said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Where was the commanding performance from Johnson that justifies his being seen as a shoo-in for the top job? He was defensive and evasive, even when competing with his friends.

    He buckled under the most gentle pressure. The tax cuts for higher earners are now merely an “ambition” about which we need to “have a debate”. On Heathrow he restated his “grave concerns” about expansion while effectively conceding he work.

    And he can only have been under scrutiny for ten minutes out of the hour!

    The members thinking Johnson will provide the strength and resolve that Mrs May apparently lacked surely cannot believe that we saw any of that last night? Mrs May would at least have sat there repeating the same inane phrase until the show got to the end. Boris wobbled and ducked and weaved and began to crumble. And has yet to face the opposition parties and an unfriendly parliament.

    You forgot to mention that Boris thinks that No Deal has a transition period, and that GATT 24 means we can trade tariff free with the EU after hard Brexit.

    The man is a blithering nincompoop.
    If that reflects what the Tory membership believes than he is still a shoo in...

    Which means November (or any general election) will be fun...
    The problem is these lies and half truths enter the vocabulary of the leaver who feels safe claiming that we can leave to wto rules and GATT 24 means there are no issues with tariffs. You must have come across such “experts” down the pub telling their mates there in nothing to worry about. Then if challenged they fall back on “they need us more than we need them” claiming they will bend over backwards to give us everything we want after a few days of mild disruption.
    And? It's too late now given the electorate of this vote so Boris will win and then the fun begins:If Boris goes for an election 1 of 2 things will occur: -

    1) The Tories and Nigel sign a deal and a full on campaign of tactical voting is organised - the Tories won't win a majority
    or 2) Nigel stands candidates against the Tories and the party is toast as their split is vote and their members don't know who and how to canvass...

    But if he doesn't call an election he needs to some how leave the EU and it's highly unlikely he will have a majority government as soon as he reveals his real plan...
    Nope, Boris gets a 7% lead over Labour and the LDs with the Brexit Party falling to just 13% even with a full slate of BP candidates with Yougov
    Relying on any polling for Johnson before we know what he actually does on October 31st is pretty naiive
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited June 2019



    If as [Rory] hinted he teamed up with Michael Gove, in either order, the prospects of the lead candidate of that pairing would improve markedly.

    It would be quite a potent team and, in many ways, a reasonably natural one. Gove may be quite ghastly but he's a very sharp operator. He's also not the most rabid Brexiteer. He has common sense which most of them lack and is pragmatic.

    I don't personally think Rory is a tory. It just isn't on message to tell the tories to forget tax cuts and put the money into public services. It's bloody marvellous but it's not tory.

    Gove is dubbed 'Red Mike' because he has some quite left of centre progressive ideas.

    I could see them making a powerful team. Does Gove have the humility to back Rory? I'm not sure. Either would put the execrable, evasive and unctuous Boris under the spotlight.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    GIN1138 said:

    After last night's disaster Rory is clearly a non-candidate and is just in this to troll everyone and get a vanity kick.

    The Conservative Party have indulged him for far too long.

    If he goes any further in this contest today it will be clear that the Tories have gone mad (as though we didn't know that already)

    I don't particularly rate him, but what a ludicrous thing to say.


  • If as [Rory] hinted he teamed up with Michael Gove, in either order, the prospects of the lead candidate of that pairing would improve markedly.

    It would be quite a potent team and, in many ways, a reasonably natural one. Gove may be quite ghastly but he's a very sharp operator. He's also not the most rabid Brexiteer. He has common sense which most of them lack and is pragmatic.

    I don't personally think Rory is a tory. It just isn't on message to tell the tories to forget tax cuts and put the money into public services. It's bloody marvellous but it's not tory.

    Gove is dubbed 'Red Mike' because he has some quite left of centre progressive ideas.

    I could see them making a powerful team. Does Gove have the humility to back Rory? I'm not sure. Either would put the execrable, evasive and unctuous Boris under the spotlight.
    It's not Tory only in the way Macmillan wasn't Tory in the early 1980s for telling off Margaret Thatcher for selling off the family silver. It's earlier Tory.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Charles said:


    Does it matter? It ought to matter. It certainly should but why is the standing of British universities not reflected in economic or industrial benefits, as in the United States or, as you say, increasingly China?

    It cannot be that the league tables are wrong. We do win more than our share of Nobel Prizes, for instance, so we must be doing something right.

    There may be soft power or influence to be taken into account. Many foreign leaders have studied here, and presumably we take some lasting benefit from that.

    On the rise of China, SeanT saw this years ago, and warned against George Osborne cutting British research.

    If you look at the top 50 universities in that list, you see that the major players are the US, the UK and the Far East (China/Singapore/Japan)

    We are told that we have to be in the EU, because the big power blocks in the future will be the EU, the US and China.

    So, at face value, what that list tells you is what a shitty job the EU is doing in promoting European research and training in the EU universities.

    The list isn't telling you that it is the fault of George Osborne or Brexit.

    Once the UK leaves, the EU will have TWO universities in the top 50. There is no
    way that is anything other than a very poor result for the EU in research and training.
    True. Except our dominance of the European university scene is not reflected in relative economic performance. That is what I was getting at. I don't know why, but we do not seem to enjoy the spin-offs other countries do.
    I chaired the commercialisation committee for a university for a few years. Academics were generally completely unwilling to engage with anything that distracted them from their academic pursuits
    Which is unsurprising since, in the most part, that’s why they became academics.
    Compare the pro brexit farmer on radio 4 a couple of months ago who responded to a hectoring question about didn't he realise he would end up with less money with "if I cared that much about money I wouldn't be a farmer in the first place, would I?"
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    HYUFD said:

    philiph said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My husband saw the debate later after me and felt that Rory had not done at all badly. Son thought he was nervous or stressed because of the odd body language.

    But he was up again at the crack of dawn on the Today programme. Plugging his message.

    I’m not sure how much further he can go and, in many ways, it might be better not to be PM for the inevitable Brexit car crash. But he has done himself a load of good by his campaign and if MPs and voters don’t want to hear honesty, well, more fools them.

    It’s mot a high bar, admittedly, but I think he’s the best thing that’s come out of the Tory party for a long time.

    I agree 100%. He's genuine and actually willing to engage. I think he has respect right across the political spectrum.
    Unfortunately the membership of the Conservative Party of today is on a different spectrum in more ways than one.

    Does anyone know whether it is possible to get data on political party memberships? I would be interested to know how many new members have joined the Tory Party in, say, the last 10 years. When I was an activist there were always quite a few nutters, but those polls that were published on here yesterday really shocked me. If they were representative, the Conservative Party no longer exists.
    I would expect that there are a higher percentage of the 'Nutters' who have certain obsessions who have a greater motivation to be registered to vote on panels for various polls.

    It is possible that there is a silent majority of relatively sane members lurking in the background.

    I joined a couple of years ago to be able to vote for sanity. Not all new members will be of the same opinion as the poll respondents (I hope).
    That poll of Conservative members yesterday caused serious and genuine distress in the Scottish Conservative ranks. More please!
    Scottish Conservatives currently tied with the Brexit Party in Scotland?
    Which on the Euros gives a grand total of 26.4%, not even close to coalition levels without another party..

    And who would go into coalition with that pair of hideous sisters?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    My prediction for today:

    Johnson 138
    Hunt 49
    Gove 47
    Stewart 43
    Javid 36
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    nichomar said:

    I wonder if you track the changing profile of conservative members (as has been suggested on here) against the kind of candidate they select? Are the more recent recruits more anti EU and to the right rather than the one nation people who used to be selected.

    I don't think it ever worked like that. The more long standing members were right wing to begin with but mellowed with age and contact with reality.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    GIN1138 said:

    After last night's disaster Rory is clearly a non-candidate and is just in this to troll everyone and get a vanity kick.

    The Conservative Party have indulged him for far too long.

    If he goes any further in this contest today it will be clear that the Tories have gone mad (as though we didn't know that already)

    He's come a shockingly long way in a very short space of time, because of both social and intellectual skills. This is why he'll clearly be in the frame next time around.
    He's come a way because clearly there is a small minority of die hard remainers prepared to indulge him. That our Brexit means Brexit PM was one of him speaks volumes to her own unsuitability for the job.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Thoughts on Round 3.

    Boris - Underwhelming last night. Will pick up a good slice of Raab votes but will he get trimmed back by concerns over his contradictory messages. Will his big tent hold.

    Hunt - Limping along like a tired old dog that springs to life when he feels the urge. The establishment candidate just can't establish his dominance of second place. Inability to gain transfers from Hancock and Harper a concern.

    Gove - The "I've got a plan" candidate hasn't planned for his lack of traction. If he tries any harder his eyes will pop out. After Boris will pick up some Raab votes but his lacklustre transfer performance is telling.

    Rory - Excellent transfer performance but under performed last night. Will look to nibble away at the support of all the other four candidates. If his momentum continues he could leapfrog Gove and Hunt. Much better on "Today" programme this morning.

    Javid - Edged the debate last night but on the precipice of elimination. If Rory continues his momentum will have to overtake Hunt or Gove to stay in, which is a massive ask. The last position candidate usually faces the prospect of their support drifting away.

    ............................................

    With not a whole lot of faith on these numbers on account of the highly dubious nature of the electorate :

    Boris 140
    Rory - 50
    Gove - 46
    Hunt - 44
    Javid - 33

    I'd be happy with that outcome. Would you support Rory or Boris if they are the final two (apologies if you've already told us).
    With the caveat that my numbers might be way off beam, if I were a Conservative party member I would vote for Rory. It's the rational choice. He's a fiscal conservative, social liberal and a pragmatist with a wide range of experience. He's also not Boris.

    However the membership is determined for Boris and they don't care about all his significant character and policy flaws. Boris is their short term comfort blanket until reality intervenes.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Will MPs engage in tactical voting?

    If I was a Raab backer yesterday who now prefers Boris I would vote Javid in a secret ballot today to eliminate Stewart and then back Boris tomorrow.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Benpointer . Please see my reply to @logical_song at 9:23am.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    So as soon as the hardest Brexiter gets knocked out Johnson starts modifying his language .

    Who would have thought! I’m shocked , such a man of principles !
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    After last night's disaster Rory is clearly a non-candidate and is just in this to to troll everyone and get a vanity kick.

    The Conservative Party have indulged him for far too long.

    If he goes any further in this contest today it will be clear that the Tories have gone mad (as though we didn't know that already)

    This seasons Change UK for the slither of Centrists to get over excited about. Behind Gove in the betting now.
    If you mean the 'slither' of centrists in the country then actually they represent the majority of voters. The extremists may shout loudest but they're not, actually, very British. At the end of the day the majority are fairly decent folk who don't like to be bastards. Power is always won in the centre ground.

    If you mean the 'slither' of centrists in the Conservative party, then Conservative remainers represent at least 1/3rd of their voters. Or did.

    The LibDems are back at historic highs.

    So whilst you keep posting crowing messages about the demise of Change UK I don't think anyone is particularly interested. In them, I mean. Not you.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Cyclefree said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:
    Regardless of who this Abdullah is (and he was talking nonsense on his own twitter thread yesterday about anti-semitism being criminalised and therefore also wanting islamophobia criminalised - er, no and no), there are good reasons for the Tories to look at the beams in their own eyes in relation to anti-Muslim prejudice, and to do it properly, as I have previously argued here - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/08/what-might-the-tories-learn-from-labour/.
    True, but the first thing to decide is how much of a beam there is in their own eye. The party may be a seething hotbed of anti Muslim prejudice or there may be isolated instances which are adequately dealt with on a case by case basis, plus a crude attempt by Labour to promote this into party wide, systemic prejudice as a tit for tat for anti Semitic. That decision needs making by the party in private, not on tv as an exercise in career furthering by javid.
    I agree that Labour has an agenda here. But to refuse to do something just because you don’t want to give ground to your opponents is the wrong approach.

    Nonetheless, the Tories should go on the front foot on this for a number of reasons:-

    1. It’s the right thing to do.
    2. To stop isolated cases turning into something more systemic.
    3. To be able to answer attacks from their opponents.
    4. To have clean hands when attacking the anti-semitism in Labour.
    5. To show the rest of us that they recognise the dangers of allowing themselves to be consumed by hatred of a minority.
    6. To put themselves in a strong position to define anti-Muslim prejudice in a way which deals with the real mischief without shutting down the right to criticise a religion or its practices, which the weasel word Islamophobia (especially as defined by some) most emphatically does not do.

    And if it’s left to them in private I suspect they would either do nothing at all or do a half-assed job.
    What you suggest is sensible - the last point in particular, as 'islamaphobia' manages to conflate considerations of religion, culture and ethnic origin, and discourse which is entirely legitimate, and entirely illegitimate, while doing little to deal with the contested area between the two.

    The chances of any useful or rigorous analysis originating from the current Tory party is rather small, though.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624
    Ishmael_Z said:

    GIN1138 said:

    After last night's disaster Rory is clearly a non-candidate and is just in this to troll everyone and get a vanity kick.

    The Conservative Party have indulged him for far too long.

    If he goes any further in this contest today it will be clear that the Tories have gone mad (as though we didn't know that already)

    I don't particularly rate him, but what a ludicrous thing to say.
    Imagery matters.

    Rory looked like a nerd with weird mannerisms and such people fail as party leaders.

    As Willy Hague and EdM discovered.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Ishmael_Z said:

    GIN1138 said:

    After last night's disaster Rory is clearly a non-candidate and is just in this to troll everyone and get a vanity kick.

    The Conservative Party have indulged him for far too long.

    If he goes any further in this contest today it will be clear that the Tories have gone mad (as though we didn't know that already)

    I don't particularly rate him, but what a ludicrous thing to say.
    Imagery matters.

    Rory looked like a nerd with weird mannerisms and such people fail as party leaders.

    As Willy Hague and EdM discovered.
    And Brown, and May
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Will MPs engage in tactical voting?

    If I was a Raab backer yesterday who now prefers Boris I would vote Javid in a secret ballot today to eliminate Stewart and then back Boris tomorrow.

    Yep but, then, you said you'd happily see the return of the troubles in Northern Ireland if it meant losing the backstop.

    So your views on this aren't to be trusted.
  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132


    Who are the A-listers north of the border? Salmond? oh, whoops, hang on a sec...
    To be fair though, can't blame you for mocking, none came over very well, even Stewart, who other than last night, by most standards is a class act.

    Salmond, Sturgeon, Cherry, Black.
    Swinson, the late Kennedy.
    Davidson.
    Brown.

    These are the standout performers in Scottish politics in the last few years. Honourable mention to Greer.
    It's very obvious that the Conservatives have a problem with the depth of their talent puddle, that the Lib Dems have a buffoon in charge, and that Labour's recent string of leaders have been very variable.

    The thing that might change the SNP hold on power is if the other parties start sending their talent to Holyrood instead of (failing to get them elected to) Westminster. If any other party had someone of the calibre of Sturgeon — and she is a very impressive politician indeed — they would be on the Westminster circuit. The Conservatives seem to have realised this, with Davidson heading up the party in Holyrood even though a ministerial car could be hers down south. But she is backed up by some world-class numpties like Murdo Fraser. Still, having an operator like Davidson in Holyrood has helped the Tories to their best result in a while in the 2017 election. If you look at the likes of Hair and Thomson, it's obvious they weren't elected on their own abilities.

    If Labour start sending their talent to Edinburgh, they could really improve their image in Scotland. Same for the Lib Dems. Surely they have someone better than Rennie?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    GIN1138 said:

    After last night's disaster Rory is clearly a non-candidate and is just in this to troll everyone and get a vanity kick.

    The Conservative Party have indulged him for far too long.

    If he goes any further in this contest today it will be clear that the Tories have gone mad (as though we didn't know that already)

    He's come a shockingly long way in a very short space of time, because of both social and intellectual skills. This is why he'll clearly be in the frame next time around.
    He's come a way because clearly there is a small minority of die hard remainers prepared to indulge him. That our Brexit means Brexit PM was one of him speaks volumes to her own unsuitability for the job.
    Die hard Remainers are bitterly opposed to his plan to deliver Brexit.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    GIN1138 said:

    After last night's disaster Rory is clearly a non-candidate and is just in this to troll everyone and get a vanity kick.

    The Conservative Party have indulged him for far too long.

    If he goes any further in this contest today it will be clear that the Tories have gone mad (as though we didn't know that already)

    I don't particularly rate him, but what a ludicrous thing to say.
    Imagery matters.

    Rory looked like a nerd with weird mannerisms and such people fail as party leaders.

    As Willy Hague and EdM discovered.
    Stewart is a smoother media performer than either, probably because of his background. Last night was more lapses than typical.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Charles said:

    Seems that @cyclefree and @anazina misunderstood my views last night

    1. Sign the WA. This includes a U.K. wide backstop
    2. Try to negotiate a U.K. wide FTA
    3. If this proves not to be possible on acceptable terms then, AIUI, the U.K. government has the unilateral right to terminate the backstop *for the GB only*
    4. Hence termination of the backstop results in a situation where NI and GB have customs checks between the (NB @cyclefree I am referring to an Irish Sea border not a hard border between NI and Eire)
    5. This is clearly very difficult for Unionists and represents a significant change in the status of NI
    6. Under the GFA this requires the consent of the people of NI, hence a referendum
    7. If they vote to leave the backstop then, yes, there is a hard border between North and South. If they vote to stay in the backstop there are checks in the Irish Sea. Either way this is done with the explicit consent of the people of NI

    Hope that’s clearer?

    points 6 and 7 Can you imagine the howls from whichever element saying that this is unrepresentative of the UK as a whole and why should a minority decide what we do?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    GIN1138 said:

    After last night's disaster Rory is clearly a non-candidate and is just in this to troll everyone and get a vanity kick.

    The Conservative Party have indulged him for far too long.

    If he goes any further in this contest today it will be clear that the Tories have gone mad (as though we didn't know that already)

    He's come a shockingly long way in a very short space of time, because of both social and intellectual skills. This is why he'll clearly be in the frame next time around.
    He's come a way because clearly there is a small minority of die hard remainers prepared to indulge him. That our Brexit means Brexit PM was one of him speaks volumes to her own unsuitability for the job.
    Die hard remainer Conservative MPs have just as much right to vote they want to as any other Conservative MP
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Does anyone else think that the leadership election has some elements of the Labour one with Rory being the outsider who is lent votes to 'widen the conversation'? Let's hope he doesn't do a Corbyn.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688



    If as [Rory] hinted he teamed up with Michael Gove, in either order, the prospects of the lead candidate of that pairing would improve markedly.

    It would be quite a potent team and, in many ways, a reasonably natural one. Gove may be quite ghastly but he's a very sharp operator. He's also not the most rabid Brexiteer. He has common sense which most of them lack and is pragmatic.

    I don't personally think Rory is a tory. It just isn't on message to tell the tories to forget tax cuts and put the money into public services. It's bloody marvellous but it's not tory.

    Gove is dubbed 'Red Mike' because he has some quite left of centre progressive ideas.

    I could see them making a powerful team. Does Gove have the humility to back Rory? I'm not sure. Either would put the execrable, evasive and unctuous Boris under the spotlight.
    It's not Tory only in the way Macmillan wasn't Tory in the early 1980s for telling off Margaret Thatcher for selling off the family silver. It's earlier Tory.
    I know that call-me-Dave Cameron tried the benevolent one Nation idea, especially with his Big Society but Rory seems to be cut from a different cloth entirely. He's got some genuinely radical ideas that seem so out of kilter with the tory party. When he was talking about AI and robotics in the future of education, I can't imagine the grey-haired ladies in Tunbridge Wells having the faintest idea what he's on about. That's a little trite and, slightly, unfair on the membership (my old man was a Chairman so bear with). But on issues like environmentalism he is so much more of a LibDem or Green.
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