Why do people think a big turnout from the Asian part of Peterborough benefits Labour? A non-trivial amount voted Leave, so it's not a slam-dunk. Or are said areas of a different ethnicity?
Look at the 24 areas Labour won at the Euro elections. All of them had a high Asian population.
I managed to back Labour at 7-1 the other day. Hopefully the unthinkingly tribalist Labour voters have stuck their cross in the right place and not split off to the Lib Dems (who never stood a chance in the seat and will be lucky to get over 15%)
Apparently this is a local election vote postponed from 2 May as the UKIP candidate died after nominations closed. Still its Ross on Wye - so you might expect the LDs to do well there.
The Liveblog on LabourList shows that is them repeating the Election Maps UK prediction from a couple of days ago. It's not based on count information tonight.
Why do people think a big turnout from the Asian part of Peterborough benefits Labour? A non-trivial amount voted Leave, so it's not a slam-dunk. Or are said areas of a different ethnicity?
Look at the 24 areas Labour won at the Euro elections. All of them had a high Asian population.
This is a very US style of analysis but all these seats are now Labour I think :
Why do people think a big turnout from the Asian part of Peterborough benefits Labour? A non-trivial amount voted Leave, so it's not a slam-dunk. Or are said areas of a different ethnicity?
Look at the 24 areas Labour won at the Euro elections. All of them had a high Asian population.
Why do people think a big turnout from the Asian part of Peterborough benefits Labour? A non-trivial amount voted Leave, so it's not a slam-dunk. Or are said areas of a different ethnicity?
Some wards in the constituency have large Muslim populations - and that community tends to vote 70-80 per cent Labour. Labour are also more likely to have a well developed postal vote operation - as they have several elections experience unlike the Brexit party.
Why do people think a big turnout from the Asian part of Peterborough benefits Labour? A non-trivial amount voted Leave, so it's not a slam-dunk. Or are said areas of a different ethnicity?
Look at the 24 areas Labour won at the Euro elections. All of them had a high Asian population.
I think a low turnout would have been good for Labour, and a high one good for the Brexit Party, (which is the opposite of what the BBC's Newsnight correspondent was saying).
I think a low turnout would have been good for Labour, and a high one good for the Brexit Party, (which is the opposite of what the BBC's Newsnight correspondent was saying).
I think the Newsnight analysis is correct, Labour always need those "extra" voters to head out.
High turnout apparently for a by election . 48.4% . My moneys on the Brexit Party if that’s the case .
I would say the same. Unless Peterborough has a very high BAME demographic. Muslims are clearly turning out for Corbyn, en masse, as we saw in the euros.
Does anyone know the ethnic breakdown of this constituency?
Don't want to blow my own trumpet but that's almost exactly in line with my prediction from yesterday.
I've been predicting much the same for the last few days. But as I say, it's not an estimate from the count, merely something someone said this morning. This Alan bloke may not have the best interest of punters at heart...
I think a low turnout would have been good for Labour, and a high one good for the Brexit Party, (which is the opposite of what the BBC's Newsnight correspondent was saying).
Tories hoping for a Labour win. Labour praying that the Tory vote doesn't totally crater in order to help them win. Strange days indeed. Most peculiar Mama.
Tories hoping for a Labour win. Labour praying that the Tory vote doesn't totally crater in order to help them win. Strange days indeed. Most peculiar Mama.
If Labour do sneak this from BXP, will the Tory leadership contenders be happy or sad?
Neutral, however Boris might be a little pleased as he does best with Brexit Party voters and if Labour win it will be because of a split Eurosceptic vote and the Brexit Party cannot beat Corbyn Labour only a Eurosceptic Tory can
If Labour do sneak this from BXP, will the Tory leadership contenders be happy or sad?
Happy because it would herald a return to normal politics so the new PM will have slightly more room to manoeuvre on Brexit and on calling a snap election.
Could be preliminary count that hasn’t been verified?
Every count has two stages: verification and candidate counting. Verification is where they check that the right number of ballot papers are in each ballot box, and when they've finished this they can say what the turnout was. After that, they start putting the votes into different piles for each candidate.
I think a low turnout would have been good for Labour, and a high one good for the Brexit Party, (which is the opposite of what the BBC's Newsnight correspondent was saying).
+1
Higher turnout means votes from people less likely to be committed to a party. More swing voters. I don’t think swing voters are going Labour in this by election.
High turnout apparently for a by election . 48.4% . My moneys on the Brexit Party if that’s the case .
I would say the same. Unless Peterborough has a very high BAME demographic. Muslims are clearly turning out for Corbyn, en masse, as we saw in the euros.
Does anyone know the ethnic breakdown of this constituency?
High turnout apparently for a by election . 48.4% . My moneys on the Brexit Party if that’s the case .
I would say the same. Unless Peterborough has a very high BAME demographic. Muslims are clearly turning out for Corbyn, en masse, as we saw in the euros.
Does anyone know the ethnic breakdown of this constituency?
As of the 2011 Census it looked like this. So probably a bit less White British now, although that skews heavily younger, so a larger than average proportion of Peterborough Muslims will be below voting age.
White 77.4 Mixed/multiple ethnic groups 2.9 Asian/Asian British 16.4 Black/African/Caribbean/Black British 2.3 Other ethnic group 1.0
High turnout apparently for a by election . 48.4% . My moneys on the Brexit Party if that’s the case .
I would say the same. Unless Peterborough has a very high BAME demographic. Muslims are clearly turning out for Corbyn, en masse, as we saw in the euros.
Does anyone know the ethnic breakdown of this constituency?
High turnout apparently for a by election . 48.4% . My moneys on the Brexit Party if that’s the case .
I would say the same. Unless Peterborough has a very high BAME demographic. Muslims are clearly turning out for Corbyn, en masse, as we saw in the euros.
Does anyone know the ethnic breakdown of this constituency?
High turnout apparently for a by election . 48.4% . My moneys on the Brexit Party if that’s the case .
I would say the same. Unless Peterborough has a very high BAME demographic. Muslims are clearly turning out for Corbyn, en masse, as we saw in the euros.
Does anyone know the ethnic breakdown of this constituency?
Interesting. Thanks. That's much more demographically mixed, and Asian/Muslim, than I expected. I thought Peterborough was more East European, if anything. Maybe that is subsumed in "white"?
Either way, the Muslim commitment to vote for the Hamas-loving, Hezbollah-hugging Corbynite Labour is evident. So.....
If Labour do sneak this from BXP, will the Tory leadership contenders be happy or sad?
Neutral, however Boris might be a little pleased as he does best with Brexit Party voters and if Labour win it will be because of a split Eurosceptic vote and the Brexit Party cannot beat Corbyn Labour only a Eurosceptic Tory can
In which case you can expect the Tories to be wheeling out the bar charts in every leave constituency in the country with "BREXIT PARTY CAN'T WIN HERE" a la Lib Dem.
The more motivated voters will be those for the Brexit Party .
I’d be shocked if they don’t win this .
1.31 at monent
Now 1.34 - drifting slowly. One key point if it's close - tactical voting is back. There must be a LOT of voters who went LibDem at the Euros to support Remain and Labour now to try to hold off BXP.
High turnout apparently for a by election . 48.4% . My moneys on the Brexit Party if that’s the case .
I would say the same. Unless Peterborough has a very high BAME demographic. Muslims are clearly turning out for Corbyn, en masse, as we saw in the euros.
Does anyone know the ethnic breakdown of this constituency?
The more motivated voters will be those for the Brexit Party .
I’d be shocked if they don’t win this .
1.31 at monent
Now 1.34 - drifting slowly. One key point if it's close - tactical voting is back. There must be a LOT of voters who went LibDem at the Euros to support Remain and Labour now to try to hold off BXP.
Suddenly drifting a bit more quickly. 1.5 or so, but volatile.
If Labour do sneak this from BXP, will the Tory leadership contenders be happy or sad?
More interestingly, as an honourably anti-Corbyn Labour vote, how would you feel?
Obviously, a win would be good for Corbyn, but what is good for Corbyn is bad for Labour, I think? Unless your tribalism has overwhelmed you.
If Corbyn Labour win thanks to the BAME vote with the Brexit Party a close second (or the reverse) that keeps Corbyn in place, he can say his strategy is working while bad for Labour Remainers, they wanted a better LD performance tonight
High turnout apparently for a by election . 48.4% . My moneys on the Brexit Party if that’s the case .
I would say the same. Unless Peterborough has a very high BAME demographic. Muslims are clearly turning out for Corbyn, en masse, as we saw in the euros.
Does anyone know the ethnic breakdown of this constituency?
Interesting. Thanks. That's much more demographically mixed, and Asian/Muslim, than I expected. I thought Peterborough was more East European, if anything. Maybe that is subsumed in "white"?
Either way, the Muslim commitment to vote for the Hamas-loving, Hezbollah-hugging Corbynite Labour is evident. So.....
Hmm.
Eastern European nationals cannot vote in parliamentary elections - but they could on 23 May. If they voted then they probably weren't voting wholesale for the Brexit party.
So the electorate is more white British and Asian/Muslim than the adult population.
If Labour do sneak this from BXP, will the Tory leadership contenders be happy or sad?
I don't know about the leadership contenders but I'm sad about any victory by Corbyn. At this time the country needs an honourable and serious opposition to hold the government to account. And we have an antisemitic Marxist instead.
Someone evidently thinks BXP may have lost - Labour price racing in. Trouble is, it's hard to tell rumour from profit-taking.
I secretly love this time of an election night. There's amazing value available given the information now known, but we never know which because of all the other wrong information we can't distinguish.
If Labour do sneak this from BXP, will the Tory leadership contenders be happy or sad?
More interestingly, as an honourably anti-Corbyn Labour vote, how would you feel?
Obviously, a win would be good for Corbyn, but what is good for Corbyn is bad for Labour, I think? Unless your tribalism has overwhelmed you.
If Corbyn Labour win thanks to the BAME vote with the Brexit Party a close second (or the reverse) that keeps Corbyn in place, he can say his strategy is working while bad for Labour Remainers, they wanted a better LD performance tonight
Good point . I’m really torn as a Labour Remainer . If I was in Peterborough I’d have to weigh up the BP winning versus sending a clear message to Labour . If they win it’s because the anti BP vote trumped those wanting Corbyn to get off the fence .
If Labour do sneak this from BXP, will the Tory leadership contenders be happy or sad?
I don't know about the leadership contenders but I'm sad about any victory by Corbyn. At this time the country needs an honourable and serious opposition to hold the government to account. And we have an antisemitic Marxist instead.
Yep. A Lab loss could have given us a sliver of hope of a challenge this summer.
If Labour do sneak this from BXP, will the Tory leadership contenders be happy or sad?
Neutral, however Boris might be a little pleased as he does best with Brexit Party voters and if Labour win it will be because of a split Eurosceptic vote and the Brexit Party cannot beat Corbyn Labour only a Eurosceptic Tory can
In which case you can expect the Tories to be wheeling out the bar charts in every leave constituency in the country with "BREXIT PARTY CAN'T WIN HERE" a la Lib Dem.
If they have any sense yes but will only work with Boris or Raab I think even then
What is odd about this market is the odd two quids still available to lay at 1000 on the also-rans. You'd not expect to see the pro's leaving money on the table like that. It might not be the big players playing.
Don't the LibDems at the count usually tweet about now to say that they believe X is just ahead. They (or the Tories) are probably in the best position to give an objective view.
What is odd about this market is the odd two quids still available to lay at 1000 on the also-rans. You'd not expect to see the pro's leaving money on the table like that. It might not be the big players playing.
Not that I can see. Are we talking Betfair exchange?
Comments
Should be a good night on Saturday if they have.
https://conservativemuslimforum.com/can-we-help/resources/muslim-demographics-by-constituency/292/
#COFFEE
We will soon see if that is enough to win.
Decent turnout
Or Labour.
I’d be shocked if they don’t win this .
Does anyone know the ethnic breakdown of this constituency?
Not enough Lennonists on PB these days.
Higher turnout means votes from people less likely to be committed to a party. More swing voters. I don’t think swing voters are going Labour in this by election.
Obviously, a win would be good for Corbyn, but what is good for Corbyn is bad for Labour, I think? Unless your tribalism has overwhelmed you.
77% White
16% Asian
3% Mixed
2% Black
1% Other
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/home-affairs/communities/demography/constituency-statistics-ethnicity/#single_constituency
White 77.4
Mixed/multiple ethnic groups 2.9
Asian/Asian British 16.4
Black/African/Caribbean/Black British 2.3
Other ethnic group 1.0
Either way, the Muslim commitment to vote for the Hamas-loving, Hezbollah-hugging Corbynite Labour is evident. So.....
Hmm.
So the electorate is more white British and Asian/Muslim than the adult population.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1136761487173791744