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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Polling round-up. Euros, cra

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  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Isn’t it better just to lay Andrea Leadsom on the next leader market? That’s what I’ve just done.

    It strikes me as interesting that whoever is backing Andrea Leadsom, perhaps to create a false momentum, seems unaware there are two markets. I've not noticed these price discrepancies on any other candidate (though I do not spend much time looking).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492
    Told you to lay Brexit party on Peterborough.

    Easy £70 for me.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Isn’t it better just to lay Andrea Leadsom on the next leader market? That’s what I’ve just done.

    It strikes me as interesting that whoever is backing Andrea Leadsom, perhaps to create a false momentum, seems unaware there are two markets. I've not noticed these price discrepancies on any other candidate (though I do not spend much time looking).
    I’ve spent quite a lot of time looking - I’ve been thinking a lot about the difference between the markets - and I can confirm that enduring discrepancy is unique.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    New record low for a winner in a by-election, per Curtice. 30.9%

    The only statistic which means very much at all.
    Otherwise, a whole lot of overinterpretation of the result going on, on all sides.

    One thing which did strike me is that Farage probably hadn’t realised that only a minority of those who vote for him actually love him.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Had Farage been the candidate, would they have won?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    I normally congratulate a new MP on winning a seat at a by-election, whichever the party. Standing for an election isn't something I'd want to do, and it takes a little bravery.

    In the case of Lisa Forbes, however, I'm not going to. Her social media posts aren't reflective of someone we should have in parliament. And I only hope that if, as she claims, she takes anti-Semitism training, then it's provided by someone other than Labour's official (non)-training.

    Surely it can’t be called anti-semitism training.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,712
    Well, my hunch that the Brexit Party had momentum was not *quite* right. ;)

    A question is where the Brexit Party head from here. Without any significant by-elections scheduled (or are there?) and only the possibility of a general election, and with a Conservative leadership election taking up the airwaves, how do they continue to get their voice heard? Is it going to be anther Farage one-man act?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Well, my hunch that the Brexit Party had momentum was not *quite* right. ;)

    A question is where the Brexit Party head from here. Without any significant by-elections scheduled (or are there?) and only the possibility of a general election, and with a Conservative leadership election taking up the airwaves, how do they continue to get their voice heard? Is it going to be anther Farage one-man act?

    There is an open recall petition in Brecon and Radnor over dodgy expense claims.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,712
    IanB2 said:

    I normally congratulate a new MP on winning a seat at a by-election, whichever the party. Standing for an election isn't something I'd want to do, and it takes a little bravery.

    In the case of Lisa Forbes, however, I'm not going to. Her social media posts aren't reflective of someone we should have in parliament. And I only hope that if, as she claims, she takes anti-Semitism training, then it's provided by someone other than Labour's official (non)-training.

    Surely it can’t be called anti-semitism training.
    Ahem. Good catch. I hope it isn't called that. ;)

    So 'anti-anti-Semitism' training. Or 'anti-Semitism awareness' training. Or, perhaps, 'how not to be an asshat on social media' training.

    I'll give her credit for one thing: at least she didn't use the old excuse that her account had been hacked ...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492
    BBC: "Defeated Brexit Party candidate Mr Greene said his campaign had failed to match Labour's organisation on the ground."

    Quelle surprise.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,712

    Well, my hunch that the Brexit Party had momentum was not *quite* right. ;)

    A question is where the Brexit Party head from here. Without any significant by-elections scheduled (or are there?) and only the possibility of a general election, and with a Conservative leadership election taking up the airwaves, how do they continue to get their voice heard? Is it going to be anther Farage one-man act?

    There is an open recall petition in Brecon and Radnor over dodgy expense claims.
    Ah yes, thanks. So we'll know in a little under two weeks. Though traditionally B&R doesn't seem to have been ripe UKIP territory in elections. It is estimated B&R voted 51.9% leave in 2016. Peterborough was 62.7%.

    So all in all, I guess B&R would be a Conservative / Lib Dem fight, with the LD's winning.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brecon_and_Radnorshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peterborough_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/parliament-and-elections/elections-elections/brexit-votes-by-constituency/
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,606

    Pulpstar said:

    Betting post for quick fingers. The Andrea Leadsom arb is back, between the Next Leader (lay at 10) and Next PM (back at 12.5) markets on Betfair.

    That's not an arb
    In what way, other than the remote chance the jobs go to different people?
    Leadsom might become leader but not PM if it is clear that she wouldn't have the confidence of the house. TM wouldn't recommend AL to the Queen. It's a small probability but enough to explain the difference between the two markets.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    New thread.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    So the main message of the night appears to have been a restatement of the fact that European elections are not quite the same as parliamentary elections.
This discussion has been closed.