Given it should be TBP’s strategy here to talk up the Lib Dem’s I find it weird they decided to still make that leaflet a TBP/Labour race.
Anyway, i’d say Labour hold. They have the ground game and a reliable bloc vote. From what i’ve seen TBP’s ground game is as clueless as UKIP’s ever was, which will especially hurt them as their supporters are going to be far more apathetic. Tory vote may hold up better than expected, Lib Dems will improve a bit but probably not trouble the Tories.
Assuming the strong rumours are true and Labour have held on, my overwhelming sense is that there is bad news for basically everyone. Farage has to feel gutted he can't win a by-election in a 60% leave seat while leading national polls; there's every risk this is a post-Euros peak and TBP's support settles a bit over the next few months. But Labour and the Tories should both be looking at their vote shares with disappointment, and the LDs looking at how many people *did* vote for TBP as a big danger sign.
Killing the remain alliance looks like a good move from the People's Vote Campaign as well. They'll take the short term jubilation from Corbyn supporters at holding on to one of their own seats over the Brexit Party gaining more steam.
Assuming the strong rumours are true and Labour have held on, my overwhelming sense is that there is bad news for basically everyone. Farage has to feel gutted he can't win a by-election in a 60% leave seat while leading national polls; there's every risk this is a post-Euros peak and TBP's support settles a bit over the next few months. But Labour and the Tories should both be looking at their vote shares with disappointment, and the LDs looking at how many people *did* vote for TBP as a big danger sign.
Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.
Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.
Or that efficient local campaigns matter to individual results.
Assuming the strong rumours are true and Labour have held on, my overwhelming sense is that there is bad news for basically everyone. Farage has to feel gutted he can't win a by-election in a 60% leave seat while leading national polls; there's every risk this is a post-Euros peak and TBP's support settles a bit over the next few months. But Labour and the Tories should both be looking at their vote shares with disappointment, and the LDs looking at how many people *did* vote for TBP as a big danger sign.
Yeah right I am really disappointed.
Just my opinion, but I think Labour should be disappointed if they've held this on a reduced vote share by a small margin. It's just about good enough to win under these circumstances, but it doesn't show real strength or resilience to TBP peeling off voters.
Holding the seat is great. But the vote shifts beyond that are not so great, imho.
Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.
Or that efficient local campaigns matter to individual results.
Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.
Curtice saying Peterboro result in line with national polls
Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.
Or that actual elections aren't the same as opinion polls! Especially when people have every incentive to make a point in an opinion poll at present (some of whom won't make that point in a by-election; clearly plenty will).
Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.
A small win for Labour on a hugely reduced vote share would be in line with polling.
Assuming the strong rumours are true and Labour have held on, my overwhelming sense is that there is bad news for basically everyone. Farage has to feel gutted he can't win a by-election in a 60% leave seat while leading national polls; there's every risk this is a post-Euros peak and TBP's support settles a bit over the next few months. But Labour and the Tories should both be looking at their vote shares with disappointment, and the LDs looking at how many people *did* vote for TBP as a big danger sign.
Yeah right I am really disappointed.
Just my opinion, but I think Labour should be disappointed if they've held this on a reduced vote share by a small margin. It's just about good enough to win under these circumstances, but it doesn't show real strength or resilience to TBP peeling off voters.
Holding the seat is great. But the vote shifts beyond that are not so great, imho.
Lab. were 8.6 on Betfair earlier
Delighted to hang on and get another Corbynite MP from there.
Doesn't mean keys to Downing Street are in the bag.
I suppose at least for Mike Greene he doesn't need the MPs salary and I can't imagine it would have been much fun being the sole BXP MP sitting on the opposition backbenches alongside the Chukas/ex Chukas, LDs, Greens and SNP? He presumably would have been sworn in in silence rather than with the usual cheers for by election winners.
And Farage also now doesn't need to worry about a parliamentary leader who might not always be on message as was the issue with Carswell.
Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.
If the Brexit Party have got within 500 of Labour that is close to the Yougov result tonight, Peterborough was already a Labour seat and the vast majority of Brexit Party gains come from the Tories with Electoral Calculus
Interesting that a national poll puts the Brexit Party in first place on 26% but they haven't won Peterborough. Suggests they're doing very well in other types of seats.
If the Brexit Party have got within 500 of Labour that is close to the Yougov result tonight, Peterborough was already a Labour seat and the vast majority of Brexit Party gains come from the Tories with Electoral Calculus
But weren't you confidently predicting last month that if we were still in the EU, TBP would romp home? What happened to that?
I suppose at least for Mike Greene he doesn't need the MPs salary and I can't imagine it would have been much fun being the sole BXP MP sitting on the opposition backbenches alongside the Chukas/ex Chukas, LDs, Greens and SNP? He presumably would have been sworn in in silence rather than with the usual cheers for by election winners.
And Farage also now doesn't need to worry about a parliamentary leader who might not always be on message as was the issue with Carswell.
Yep. A first time and only MP for a party with no policies was bound to go wrong on first contact with enemy.
There needs to be some theories on what drove the Brexit Party to be 1/7 favourites. The only thing they really ever had in their favour were the European Election results, which are a different type of elections to Westminster.
There needs to be some theories on what drove the Brexit Party to be 1/7 favourites. The only thing they really ever had in their favour were the European Election results, which are a different type of elections to Westminster.
There needs to be some theories on what drove the Brexit Party to be 1/7 favourites. The only thing they really ever had in their favour were the European Election results, which are a different type of elections to Westminster.
I think the general view was that after winning 9% in the Euros, the Conservative vote share would collapse in favour of TBP. But, it didn't.
The night is young. Time to bet on when Theresa May will step down as party leader.
Or rather to bet on how Betfair will settle the market. Is it today when she stops being leader but immediately becomes acting leader, or July or later when she is replaced as leader?
Tory vote held up very well and denied Farage a win. Good. Also easily beat the LDs.
If normal circumstances return, the Tories should comfortably win that seat back. If not, it will be one of many where Farage puts Corbyn into power by a landslide.
There needs to be some theories on what drove the Brexit Party to be 1/7 favourites. The only thing they really ever had in their favour were the European Election results, which are a different type of elections to Westminster.
I think the general view was that after winning 9% in the Euros, the Conservative vote share would collapse in favour of TBP. But, it didn't.
Perhaps May resigning and the expectation Boris will become PM and deliver Brexit has resulted in some firming up of their vote?
So when do the pundits add up the 'leave' and 'remain' votes and tell us who actually 'won' tonight.
Comments
Recounts surely either way
Yet again they have underestimated Jezza and his foot soldiers.
Pretty sure they will be doing that as he enters Downing Street.
Had ChangeUK run would they have taken 500 Labour Remainers? Maybe.
I ignored my inner betting voice.
Rats!!!!!
Stewart Jackson
Fiona Onasanya
Lisa Forbes?
Will Labour now ramp it up to try and get more votes ?
Holding the seat is great. But the vote shifts beyond that are not so great, imho.
Gove and Hunt though. Oof.
Delighted to hang on and get another Corbynite MP from there.
Doesn't mean keys to Downing Street are in the bag.
And Farage also now doesn't need to worry about a parliamentary leader who might not always be on message as was the issue with Carswell.
https://twitter.com/ElectionsGB1/status/1136798211467808768
God I wish I had jumped on lab aat around 11 tonight
Labour activists are chanting "Lisa, Lisa, Lisa"
Roll up folks - Lab in 2019
TBP 9801
Brexit 9,801
Con 7,243
Or rather to bet on how Betfair will settle the market. Is it today when she stops being leader but immediately becomes acting leader, or July or later when she is replaced as leader?
If normal circumstances return, the Tories should comfortably win that seat back. If not, it will be one of many where Farage puts Corbyn into power by a landslide.
BRX 9,801
Con 7,243
LD 4,159
Green 1,035
UKIP 400
CPA 162
ED 153
SDP 135
Loony 112
Common Good 60
EU 25
Ind Smith 25
Lab maj 683
So when do the pundits add up the 'leave' and 'remain' votes and tell us who actually 'won' tonight.
BREX: 28.9% (+28.9)
CON: 21.4% (-25.5)
LDEM: 12.3% (+8.9)
GRN: 3.1%
UKIP: 1.2%
Electoral calculus prediction for GE:
LAB 27.3%
CON 18.8%
LIB 16.9%
Green 7.7%
UKIP 1.0%
ChUK 2.3%
Brexit 25.6%