> @HYUFD said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > @SandyRentool said: > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > I could see Gove v Raab being the final two. > > > > > > > > And I thought that this morning before even reading the article! > > > > > > > > However far Hunt goes he will fail (ultimately at the members) because he's flip flopped and doesn't offer anything. > > > > > > > > Gove, Raab and Stewart are the ones who have (the last mainly outreach and rhetoric) but if Gove does become PM I think he will admire the cut of Rory's jib and offer him a senior position in his cabinet. > > > > > > The membership would elect Raaaab in all likelihood. The MPs can't give them the choice of someone to the right of Gove. > > > > > > Of course, from a Labour perspective, McVey v Baker in the run off would be ideal. > > > > I'm not so sure. > > > > Gove is well respected amongst the membership. They will vote for whoever they believe can most credibly deliver Brexit. > > > > Raab would risk revoke and no Brexit whereas Gove would get the job done. > > Tory members would vote for Raab over Gove 56% to 35% according to last week's ConHome Tory members poll > > https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/05/next-tory-leader-run-offs-our-panels-support-hasnt-changed-they-want-johnson-followed-by-raab-gove-javid-and-hunt-in-that-order.html > > Raab has committed to take the UK out of the EU by the end of October Deal or No Deal
I'd take Conhome polls with a very large pinch of salt.
> @logical_song said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1134800823899369472 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The Social Democrats really are in serious trouble. I thought they'd bottomed out at around 15% but it seems they can go even lower. > > > > > > Greens have become the main opposition party now ! It's like Pasok in Greece and a fate which could befall one Labour or the Tories. Perhaps both > > > > Given the latest Yougov has LDs first and Brexit Party second it has already hit both. > > > > In France too Les Republicains and the Socialist Party trail Le Pen's Party and En Marche and in Italy Forza Italia now trails Salvini's Lega Nord > > A little while back 4 or 5 parties in Germany were within a few points of each other. If this poll is correct SPD and AFD are now 'also rans'. The Green surge is impressive.
Yet under German PR the Greens cannot form a Government without the SPD unless they do a coalition with the CDU in which case they lose their left flank back to the SPD.
The AFD rise meanwhile prevents the CDU getting enough seats for a coalition with the FDP
> @Sean_F said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > @MarkHopkins said: > > > Can anyone explain to me how back-stabber Gove, who suckles on the teat of Climate Correctness, and only offers a continuity-May plan, can possibly save the Tories? > > > > Gove does have a tendency to take things too far. > > > > I could see him going full Greta Thunberg and declaring a climate emergency if he wins, for example. > > That. And the public strongly dislike him as well.
They do. On the other hand he's intelligent, competent and would probably achieve in a number of domestic policy areas as PM at the same time.
> @IanB2 said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > @SandyRentool said: > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > I could see Gove v Raab being the final two. > > > > > > > > And I thought that this morning before even reading the article! > > > > > > > > However far Hunt goes he will fail (ultimately at the members) because he's flip flopped and doesn't offer anything. > > > > > > > > Gove, Raab and Stewart are the ones who have (the last mainly outreach and rhetoric) but if Gove does become PM I think he will admire the cut of Rory's jib and offer him a senior position in his cabinet. > > > > > > The membership would elect Raaaab in all likelihood. The MPs can't give them the choice of someone to the right of Gove. > > > > > > Of course, from a Labour perspective, McVey v Baker in the run off would be ideal. > > > > I'm not so sure. > > > > Gove is well respected amongst the membership. They will vote for whoever they believe can most credibly deliver Brexit. > > > > Raab would risk revoke and no Brexit whereas Gove would get the job done. > > But you are more sensible than the median Tory member (and probably the upper quartile). The nutters are judging by one metric alone, and it isn't a helpful or sensible one (see downthread). The only hope is that, knowing this, the MPs head them off at the pass
Thank you, and I'm not sure. There are more sensible Tory members than you think.
Conhome is not representative. It's nickname used to be UKIP home and its polling techniques are self-selecting and far from scientific.
> @SandyRentool said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > I could see Gove v Raab being the final two. > > > > And I thought that this morning before even reading the article! > > > > However far Hunt goes he will fail (ultimately at the members) because he's flip flopped and doesn't offer anything. > > > > Gove, Raab and Stewart are the ones who have (the last mainly outreach and rhetoric) but if Gove does become PM I think he will admire the cut of Rory's jib and offer him a senior position in his cabinet. > > The membership would elect Raaaab in all likelihood. The MPs can't give them the choice of someone to the right of Gove. > > Of course, from a Labour perspective, McVey v Baker in the run off would be ideal.
There's a parliamentary caucus of 80-110 solid Brexit MPs. That will be enough for a Brexiter to make the final two.
But, there are also 160+ pragmatist MPs who will select the best candidate for the job.
So, I expect the candidates in the final two to follow accordingly unless each of them can creatively reach out to both caucuses.
> @PaulM said: > Is there any abiity in UK election law to stand as a candidate for multiple parties ? (AS happens in New York where for example Bill De Balsio ran for mayor of NYC as the Democratic Party candidate and also the Working Families Party cnadidate) > > Was wondering if it is an option for the Brexit Party if they wnted to have 650 candidates but didn't want to stand against a rabid Brexiteer MP. > > I know the Cooperative Party has candidates who are simultaneously Labour candidates, but I think that's a different set up.
Yougov has Tory members narrowly backing a pact with the Brexit Party 49% to 39%
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > @SandyRentool said: > > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > I could see Gove v Raab being the final two. > > > > > > > > > > And I thought that this morning before even reading the article! > > > > > > > > > > However far Hunt goes he will fail (ultimately at the members) because he's flip flopped and doesn't offer anything. > > > > > > > > > > Gove, Raab and Stewart are the ones who have (the last mainly outreach and rhetoric) but if Gove does become PM I think he will admire the cut of Rory's jib and offer him a senior position in his cabinet. > > > > > > > > The membership would elect Raaaab in all likelihood. The MPs can't give them the choice of someone to the right of Gove. > > > > > > > > Of course, from a Labour perspective, McVey v Baker in the run off would be ideal. > > > > > > I'm not so sure. > > > > > > Gove is well respected amongst the membership. They will vote for whoever they believe can most credibly deliver Brexit. > > > > > > Raab would risk revoke and no Brexit whereas Gove would get the job done. > > > > Tory members would vote for Raab over Gove 56% to 35% according to last week's ConHome Tory members poll > > > > https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/05/next-tory-leader-run-offs-our-panels-support-hasnt-changed-they-want-johnson-followed-by-raab-gove-javid-and-hunt-in-that-order.html > > > > Raab has committed to take the UK out of the EU by the end of October Deal or No Deal > > I'd take Conhome polls with a very large pinch of salt. > > I'd expect the race to be competitive and close.
Yougov also had Raab beating Gove in a recent Tory members' poll 58% to 42%.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > @SandyRentool said: > > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > I could see Gove v Raab being the final two. > > > > > > > > > > And I thought that this morning before even reading the article! > > > > > > > > > > However far Hunt goes he will fail (ultimately at the members) because he's flip flopped and doesn't offer anything. > > > > > > > > > > Gove, Raab and Stewart are the ones who have (the last mainly outreach and rhetoric) but if Gove does become PM I think he will admire the cut of Rory's jib and offer him a senior position in his cabinet. > > > > > > > > The membership would elect Raaaab in all likelihood. The MPs can't give them the choice of someone to the right of Gove. > > > > > > > > Of course, from a Labour perspective, McVey v Baker in the run off would be ideal. > > > > > > I'm not so sure. > > > > > > Gove is well respected amongst the membership. They will vote for whoever they believe can most credibly deliver Brexit. > > > > > > Raab would risk revoke and no Brexit whereas Gove would get the job done. > > > > But you are more sensible than the median Tory member (and probably the upper quartile). The nutters are judging by one metric alone, and it isn't a helpful or sensible one (see downthread). The only hope is that, knowing this, the MPs head them off at the pass > > Thank you, and I'm not sure. There are more sensible Tory members than you think. > > Conhome is not representative. It's nickname used to be UKIP home and its polling techniques are self-selecting and far from scientific.
Actually ConHome's results are very close to Yougov's and Tim Bale's Tory members polls
> @HYUFD said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > @SandyRentool said: > > > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > > I could see Gove v Raab being the final two. > > > > > > > > > > > > And I thought that this morning before even reading the article! > > > > > > > > > > > > However far Hunt goes he will fail (ultimately at the members) because he's flip flopped and doesn't offer anything. > > > > > > > > > > > > Gove, Raab and Stewart are the ones who have (the last mainly outreach and rhetoric) but if Gove does become PM I think he will admire the cut of Rory's jib and offer him a senior position in his cabinet. > > > > > > > > > > The membership would elect Raaaab in all likelihood. The MPs can't give them the choice of someone to the right of Gove. > > > > > > > > > > Of course, from a Labour perspective, McVey v Baker in the run off would be ideal. > > > > > > > > I'm not so sure. > > > > > > > > Gove is well respected amongst the membership. They will vote for whoever they believe can most credibly deliver Brexit. > > > > > > > > Raab would risk revoke and no Brexit whereas Gove would get the job done. > > > > > > Tory members would vote for Raab over Gove 56% to 35% according to last week's ConHome Tory members poll > > > > > > https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/05/next-tory-leader-run-offs-our-panels-support-hasnt-changed-they-want-johnson-followed-by-raab-gove-javid-and-hunt-in-that-order.html > > > > > > Raab has committed to take the UK out of the EU by the end of October Deal or No Deal > > > > I'd take Conhome polls with a very large pinch of salt. > > > > I'd expect the race to be competitive and close. > > Yougov also had Raab beating Gove in a recent Tory members' poll 58% to 42%. > > https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/17/boris-johnson-holds-commanding-lead-among-tory-mem
Yougov is a better source but that's still not an insurmountable lead - an 8% swing would do it off a poll that probably has a 3-5% MoE anyway and polling off superficial appeal of the candidates only.
Lee is one of the lunatics who have put us in this position. He is as much part of a death cult as the ERG. With any luck he will be out of Parliament very soon so he can do no more damage to our democracy.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @nico67 said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > https://twitter.com/DrPhillipLeeMP/status/1134811478668840961 > > > > I expect he’ll be resigning the whip soon . The death cult continue to try and remove any saner Tories. > > Lee is one of the lunatics who have put us in this position. He is as much part of a death cult as the ERG. With any luck he will be out of Parliament very soon so he can do no more damage to our democracy.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > > @SandyRentool said: > > > > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > > > I could see Gove v Raab being the final two. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > And I thought that this morning before even reading the article! > > > > > > > > > > > > > > However far Hunt goes he will fail (ultimately at the members) because he's flip flopped and doesn't offer anything. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Gove, Raab and Stewart are the ones who have (the last mainly outreach and rhetoric) but if Gove does become PM I think he will admire the cut of Rory's jib and offer him a senior position in his cabinet. > > > > > > > > > > > > The membership would elect Raaaab in all likelihood. The MPs can't give them the choice of someone to the right of Gove. > > > > > > > > > > > > Of course, from a Labour perspective, McVey v Baker in the run off would be ideal. > > > > > > > > > > I'm not so sure. > > > > > > > > > > Gove is well respected amongst the membership. They will vote for whoever they believe can most credibly deliver Brexit. > > > > > > > > > > Raab would risk revoke and no Brexit whereas Gove would get the job done. > > > > > > > > Tory members would vote for Raab over Gove 56% to 35% according to last week's ConHome Tory members poll > > > > > > > > https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/05/next-tory-leader-run-offs-our-panels-support-hasnt-changed-they-want-johnson-followed-by-raab-gove-javid-and-hunt-in-that-order.html > > > > > > > > Raab has committed to take the UK out of the EU by the end of October Deal or No Deal > > > > > > I'd take Conhome polls with a very large pinch of salt. > > > > > > I'd expect the race to be competitive and close. > > > > Yougov also had Raab beating Gove in a recent Tory members' poll 58% to 42%. > > > > https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/17/boris-johnson-holds-commanding-lead-among-tory-mem > > Yougov is a better source but that's still not an insurmountable lead - an 8% swing would do it off a poll that probably has a 3-5% MoE anyway and polling off superficial appeal of the candidates only.
Gove has more chance than say Stewart and Hancock but whichever of Boris or Raab gets to the membership likely wins it, Gove needs both to fail to make the runoff with MPs to have a chance
> @brendan16 said: > > @Chris said: > > > @viewcode said: > > > It is a religious symbol for the Hindu religion and is widely used in temples in India - and has been for over 4,000 years as you say. It was invented in India - not Germany - and was a symbol used to promote peace and prosperity. > > > > > > The Nazis also used torches for their rallies - should people be banned from using torches as symbols - the Tories used one for years? > > > > > > How did the argument get to the point where you are arguing for the rehabilitation of the swastika and the torchlight parade? > > > > Let a thousand flowers bloom, and a thousand burning crosses blaze, as Nazis brandish flaming torches and wave swastika flags. > > > > Maybe this is the new tolerance? > > We were merely debating the origin of the Swastika - the Nazis didn't invent it they stole it. > > The point was that in India it is a religious symbol and therefore its perfectly legitimate for Hindus to continue use a symbol they invented and had been using for 4,000 years in their religion including as an emblem on temples - as opposed to 15. Its hardly their fault Hitler stole it to promote his evil philosophy. > > > > > > > >
It is all context dependent. Few are disturbed by a swastica as part of the facade of a Hindu temple, or a swatika tattoo on an elderly Indian lady, as I do see in Leicester from time to time. A swastika tattoo on a Tommy Robinson supporter is quite a different thing.
Some other venerable things such as the forename Adolph, and the toothbrush moustache are rather out of fashion too.
The Brexit Party are unstoppable and will undoubtedly triumph. Nevertheless, it's nice to fantasize about them tripping up. There's a real 'we're the masters now' attitude about them.
> > > It is a religious symbol for the Hindu religion and is widely used in temples in India - and has been for over 4,000 years as you say. It was invented in India - not Germany - and was a symbol used to promote peace and prosperity.
> > >
> > > The Nazis also used torches for their rallies - should people be banned from using torches as symbols - the Tories used one for years?
> > >
> > > How did the argument get to the point where you are arguing for the rehabilitation of the swastika and the torchlight parade?
> >
> > Let a thousand flowers bloom, and a thousand burning crosses blaze, as Nazis brandish flaming torches and wave swastika flags.
> >
> > Maybe this is the new tolerance?
>
> We were merely debating the origin of the Swastika - the Nazis didn't invent it they stole it.
>
> The point was that in India it is a religious symbol and therefore its perfectly legitimate for Hindus to continue use a symbol they invented and had been using for 4,000 years in their religion including as an emblem on temples - as opposed to 15. Its hardly their fault Hitler stole it to promote his evil philosophy.
It is all context dependent. Few are disturbed by a swastica as part of the facade of a Hindu temple, or a swatika tattoo on an elderly Indian lady, as I do see in Leicester from time to time. A swastika tattoo on a Tommy Robinson supporter is quite a different thing.
Some other venerable things such as the forename Adolph, and the toothbrush moustache are rather out of fashion too.
Yougov has Tory members narrowly backing a pact with the Brexit Party 49% to 39%
How would that work in practice? Would you and the Epping Forest MP stand down in favour of a Brexit Party candidate? I suspect not.
Presumably you'd have no issue allowing BXP to fight seats like East Ham but they might not see it in those terms.
When the Liberals and SDP had to work out who would "lead" in seats, they of course started from having many fewer MPs and many more areas of almost nil activity.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > Hyufd - you rely far too much on polls in forming your opinions > > However, I fear Boris will win through then absolutely anything could happen > > Mind you, it will not be on our votes in this household and no doubt we will be able to say > > 'Don't blame us, we did not vote Boris'
Having been canvassing with Tory members in Woodford this morning there was as much support for Raab and McVey as Boris with Cleverly also picking up support.
Against Raab or McVey Boris would actually be the moderate candidate
Probably a necessary thing to get a few BXP people elected. The most established and proven way to combat support for populist parties is to actual provide a platform for them to be shown to be absolutely useless. (See eg. BNP/UKIP councils - and UKIP in the European Parliament for that matter)
> @stodge said: > Yougov has Tory members narrowly backing a pact with the Brexit Party 49% to 39% > > How would that work in practice? Would you and the Epping Forest MP stand down in favour of a Brexit Party candidate? I suspect not. > > Presumably you'd have no issue allowing BXP to fight seats like East Ham but they might not see it in those terms. > > When the Liberals and SDP had to work out who would "lead" in seats, they of course started from having many fewer MPs and many more areas of almost nil activity.
No, although on the latest Yougov the Brexit Party would win Epping Forest anyway thus the Tories need to get Brexit delivered to avoid heavy losses.
I agree with you a pact is unlikely to work and the Brexit Party would still put up candidates against the majority of Tory MPs who voted for the Withdrawal Agreement or to revoke Article 50 or for EUref2.
> @alex. said: > > @Stark_Dawning said: > > https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1134835463053815808 > > > > > > > > The Brexit Party are unstoppable and will undoubtedly triumph. Nevertheless, it's nice to fantasize about them tripping up. There's a real 'we're the masters now' attitude about them. > > Probably a necessary thing to get a few BXP people elected. The most established and proven way to combat support for populist parties is to actual provide a platform for them to be shown to be absolutely useless. (See eg. BNP/UKIP councils - and UKIP in the European Parliament for that matter) > >
Took a while for that to happen to Labour in Wales though
> @JosiasJessop said: > So reports which support your view are good but those that oppose it are 'laughable'. > > > > How about this report: > > > > ' HS2 will not offer value for money and risks "short changing" the North of England, a group of peers has warned. > > > > A report from the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee also said it was "far from convinced" the new high-speed railway will be built within the £55.7bn budget. > > > > It said the project should not go ahead without a new assessment of its costs and benefits. ' > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48284105 > > I said 'most of the reports', not all of them, and so your rant is rather ill-judged. > > There are valid criticisms of the HS2 project - and I've often mentioned them on here. I'm not a blind fan. However I can also call out the b/s arguments. > > And yes, you should read that HoL report. And whilst you are at it, you should read the pro- reports I've linked to many times passim. > > That's the report that said HS2 should stop at Old Oak Common instead of going into Euston. If that's the case, then the report's as laughable as all of the others. It's an insanely stupid idea, and a sign of utter dishonesty. > > To aid you, the report is here: > https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldeconaf/359/359.pdf
First its 'laughable' now its 'rant'.
And this is why HS2 has failed to achieve any 'buy-in'.
Like it or not my suggestion that HS2 needed to get actual construction work done is correct.
Because without that it is time and money drifting away with nothing to show for it.
And then some politician comes along and says "we should stop this waste of money and spend it on X".
Compare with CrossRail - no matter how much incompetence, how much overspending, how many years of delays that involves it will still be completed. And that's because CrossRail got enough actual construction work done for it to become unstoppable.
> What was the point of posting that? Unless you want to emphasise that Banks is a graceless shit, which I doubt. What is your commentary and value add?
The first 3 responders on that thread had 131 followers between them.
> @Theuniondivvie said: > > @matt said: > > https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1134835463053815808 > > > What was the point of posting that? Unless you want to emphasise that Banks is a graceless shit, which I doubt. What is your commentary and value add? > > > The first 3 responders on that thread had 131 followers between them.
So normal people then? What is with the # of followers as some sort of phallic indicator that people have?
My father gave me the first editions of "The Jungle Book" and "The Second Jungle Book", both published in the mid 1890's. Lovely blue cloth covers with gold embossed decoration.
I had the opportunity many moons ago to purchase copies of both books signed by Kipling but decided that my fathers own copies passed to his son could not be bettered.
Additionally the signed copies were an arm and a leg and anatomically Mrs JackW's shod feet must come first .... she advises me so most directly and quite regularly ....
> @HYUFD said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > Hyufd - you rely far too much on polls in forming your opinions > > > > However, I fear Boris will win through then absolutely anything could happen > > > > Mind you, it will not be on our votes in this household and no doubt we will be able to say > > > > 'Don't blame us, we did not vote Boris' > > Having been canvassing with Tory members in Woodford this morning there was as much support for Raab and McVey as Boris with Cleverly also picking up support. > > Against Raab or McVey Boris would actually be the moderate candidate
> @matt said: > https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1134835463053815808 > > > > What was the point of posting that? Unless you want to emphasise that Banks is a graceless shit, which I doubt. What is your commentary and value add? It speaks for itself.
However as Bristow is a staunch Leaver what it does show is no Tory candidate is immune at the moment from the Brexit Party surge until Brexit is delivered
> @HYUFD said: > > @logical_song said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1134800823899369472 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The Social Democrats really are in serious trouble. I thought they'd bottomed out at around 15% but it seems they can go even lower. > > > > > > > > Greens have become the main opposition party now ! It's like Pasok in Greece and a fate which could befall one Labour or the Tories. Perhaps both > > > > > > Given the latest Yougov has LDs first and Brexit Party second it has already hit both. > > > > > > In France too Les Republicains and the Socialist Party trail Le Pen's Party and En Marche and in Italy Forza Italia now trails Salvini's Lega Nord > > > > A little while back 4 or 5 parties in Germany were within a few points of each other. If this poll is correct SPD and AFD are now 'also rans'. The Green surge is impressive. > > Yet under German PR the Greens cannot form a Government without the SPD unless they do a coalition with the CDU in which case they lose their left flank back to the SPD. > > The AFD rise meanwhile prevents the CDU getting enough seats for a coalition with the FDP
Those numbers in a federal election would definitely lead to a Green-CDU coalition, whether the CSU could live with that is another question.
There have been several Bundesländer with CDU-Green coalitions (currently 4 I think, including Baden-Württemburg where the state government is headed by a Green) so the Greens have few problems forming coalitions with the CDU or vice versa.
edit: looking at the figures again there would also be a majority for Green-SPD-Linke, or Green-SPD-FDP, or even CDU-SPD-FDP but more likely the SPD would go into opposition I think
> @alex. said: > > @Stark_Dawning said: > > https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1134835463053815808 > > > > > > > > The Brexit Party are unstoppable and will undoubtedly triumph. Nevertheless, it's nice to fantasize about them tripping up. There's a real 'we're the masters now' attitude about them. > > Probably a necessary thing to get a few BXP people elected. The most established and proven way to combat support for populist parties is to actual provide a platform for them to be shown to be absolutely useless. (See eg. BNP/UKIP councils - and UKIP in the European Parliament for that matter) > >
And it’s only a matter of time before the new MP(s) fall out with Farage, who always wants to be the only big fish in the pond.
According to UNS, Labour should still hold Peterborough. It's a by-election but they're not the government and they were able to triumph in Newport West where UKIP stood a candidate
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @Theuniondivvie said: > > > @matt said: > > > https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1134835463053815808 > > > > > What was the point of posting that? Unless you want to emphasise that Banks is a graceless shit, which I doubt. What is your commentary and value add? > > > > > > The first 3 responders on that thread had 131 followers between them. > > So normal people then? What is with the # of followers as some sort of phallic indicator that people have?
I'm glad that we have an expert to arbitrate on what's normal, though not sure why you had to bring phalluses into it. Personally I'd think being on Twitter for 7 years and picking up only 30 followers is verging on the extraordinary.
> The Brexit Party are unstoppable and will undoubtedly triumph. Nevertheless, it's nice to fantasize about them tripping up. There's a real 'we're the masters now' attitude about them.
Probably a necessary thing to get a few BXP people elected. The most established and proven way to combat support for populist parties is to actual provide a platform for them to be shown to be absolutely useless. (See eg. BNP/UKIP councils - and UKIP in the European Parliament for that matter)
> @Pulpstar said: > According to UNS, Labour should still hold Peterborough. It's a by-election but they're not the government and they were able to triumph in Newport West where UKIP stood a candidate
No, the election hangs on whether enough Tory and Labour supporters vote LibDem this time in order to stop the Brexit Party from winning....
> According to UNS, Labour should still hold Peterborough. It's a by-election but they're not the government and they were able to triumph in Newport West where UKIP stood a candidate
No, the election hangs on whether enough Tory and Labour supporters vote LibDem this time in order to stop the Brexit Party from winning....
I hope that advice is followed, I'm on Tories sub 10.
Regardless of age and edition I'm sure they are treasured possessions.
Early editions, not firsts, of the blue cloth books are also available for about £30-£50 for the pair. "The Jungle Book" has gold elephants on the front cover and "The Second Jungle Book" a gold cobra.
And this is why HS2 has failed to achieve any 'buy-in'.
Like it or not my suggestion that HS2 needed to get actual construction work done is correct.
Because without that it is time and money drifting away with nothing to show for it.
And then some politician comes along and says "we should stop this waste of money and spend it on X".
Compare with CrossRail - no matter how much incompetence, how much overspending, how many years of delays that involves it will still be completed. And that's because CrossRail got enough actual construction work done for it to become unstoppable.
Well, you said I said something that I hadn't, and argued against that strawman instead of what I said. So yes, I think 'rant' is correct for the ill-informed comments you're making.
And again, actual construction work is being done on HS2: they're classed as enabling works, but I dare you to argue that (say) diverting roads and utilities or digging launching shafts for TBM's isn't 'actual' work.
I'd have more time for your arguments if you actually appeared to be clued up on what you're saying instead of (unusually for you) clueless on this topic.
Again, I must ask: have you read the reports for HS2, or do you just go by headlines?
> @IanB2 said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > According to UNS, Labour should still hold Peterborough. It's a by-election but they're not the government and they were able to triumph in Newport West where UKIP stood a candidate > > No, the election hangs on whether enough Tory and Labour supporters vote LibDem this time in order to stop the Brexit Party from winning....
I think the demographic profile of the seat favours TBP. Others would favour the Lib Dems much more (eg Brecon & Radnor).
> @Sean_F said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > According to UNS, Labour should still hold Peterborough. It's a by-election but they're not the government and they were able to triumph in Newport West where UKIP stood a candidate > > > > No, the election hangs on whether enough Tory and Labour supporters vote LibDem this time in order to stop the Brexit Party from winning.... > > I think the demographic profile of the seat favours TBP. Others would favour the Lib Dems much more (eg Brecon & Radnor).
TBP are favourites and probably have victory nailed on, for sure. The question is which other party has any chance at all of beating them. Tories, nil. Labour, negligible, since it will be lucky to hang on to more than its loyal ethnic vote in the seat. The LibDems will probably be second, and are the only ones capable, even at a long shot, of seeing Farage’s pet millionaire defeated.
> @HYUFD said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1134059323582287873 > > > > > > That is the estimated Peterborough constituency result based on the European elections votes cast in the area > > > > But the EU election result itself has changed the narrative. > > Based on the latest YouGov last week and adjusting from the European election results the forecast for Peterborough on Thursday would be: > > Brexit Party 27% > Labour 27% > Tories 20% > LDs 17% > Greens 6% > > So would be neck and neck between the Brexit Party and Labour
If you wish to stake your reputation (or even wager something with actual value) on Labour getting 27% or more and the Tories getting 20% or more, please go ahead...
> What was the point of posting that? Unless you want to emphasise that Banks is a graceless shit, which I doubt. What is your commentary and value add?
It speaks for itself.
However as Bristow is a staunch Leaver what it does show is no Tory candidate is immune at the moment from the Brexit Party surge until Brexit is delivered
So the analysis is then that Banks is a graceless shit who wishes to replace the Conservative party with his own virulently unpleasant worldview. Implicitly you seem happy to support that in that you post his “thoughts” without a scintilla of criticism.
> @matt said: > > @matt said: > > > https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1134835463053815808 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What was the point of posting that? Unless you want to emphasise that Banks is a graceless shit, which I doubt. What is your commentary and value add? > > It speaks for itself. > > > > However as Bristow is a staunch Leaver what it does show is no Tory candidate is immune at the moment from the Brexit Party surge until Brexit is delivered > > So the analysis is then that Banks is a graceless shit who wishes to replace the Conservative party with his own virulently unpleasant worldview. Implicitly you seem happy to support that in that you post his “thoughts” without a scintilla of criticism.
Much as I would rather not have to bother to reply to your increasingly tiresome posts I would point out that while over 50% of 2017 Tories who voted in the European Parliament elections voted for the Brexit Party I still voted Tory
“So we must look out for the unexpected. Look out for a candidate who is good at shaking things up. Look out for someone who makes the established frontrunners appear staid, slow and stale, the way Barack Obama did in 2008 in the US and Emmanuel Macron did in 2017 in France. Look out for one of Rory Stewart, Penny Mordaunt, Matt Hancock or maybe Michael Gove. All seem to have grasped that this election may not, after all, be a race to appease the hard right. It may, instead, be won in the Conservative centre, and with the support of the Tory grassroots too.”
> > > That is the estimated Peterborough constituency result based on the European elections votes cast in the area
> >
> > But the EU election result itself has changed the narrative.
>
> Based on the latest YouGov last week and adjusting from the European election results the forecast for Peterborough on Thursday would be:
>
> Brexit Party 27%
> Labour 27%
> Tories 20%
> LDs 17%
> Greens 6%
>
> So would be neck and neck between the Brexit Party and Labour
If you wish to stake your reputation (or even wager something with actual value) on Labour getting 27% or more and the Tories getting 20% or more, please go ahead...
> @HYUFD said: > > @matt said: > > > @matt said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1134835463053815808 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What was the point of posting that? Unless you want to emphasise that Banks is a graceless shit, which I doubt. What is your commentary and value add? > > > > It speaks for itself. > > > > > > > > However as Bristow is a staunch Leaver what it does show is no Tory candidate is immune at the moment from the Brexit Party surge until Brexit is delivered > > > > So the analysis is then that Banks is a graceless shit who wishes to replace the Conservative party with his own virulently unpleasant worldview. Implicitly you seem happy to support that in that you post his “thoughts” without a scintilla of criticism. > > Much as I would rather not have to bother to reply to your increasingly tiresome posts I would point out that while over 50% of 2017 Tories who voted in the European Parliament elections voted for the Brexit Party I still voted Tory >
> @IanB2 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1134059323582287873 > > > > > > > > That is the estimated Peterborough constituency result based on the European elections votes cast in the area > > > > > > But the EU election result itself has changed the narrative. > > > > Based on the latest YouGov last week and adjusting from the European election results the forecast for Peterborough on Thursday would be: > > > > Brexit Party 27% > > Labour 27% > > Tories 20% > > LDs 17% > > Greens 6% > > > > So would be neck and neck between the Brexit Party and Labour > > If you wish to stake your reputation (or even wager something with actual value) on Labour getting 27% or more and the Tories getting 20% or more, please go ahead...
I think the Brexit Party will win the by election reasonably comfortably on Thursday, I was just pointing out what impact the new YouGov poll would have in Peterborough in terms of changes from the European elections if correct
> @HYUFD said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1134059323582287873 > > > > > > > > > > That is the estimated Peterborough constituency result based on the European elections votes cast in the area > > > > > > > > But the EU election result itself has changed the narrative. > > > > > > Based on the latest YouGov last week and adjusting from the European election results the forecast for Peterborough on Thursday would be: > > > > > > Brexit Party 27% > > > Labour 27% > > > Tories 20% > > > LDs 17% > > > Greens 6% > > > > > > So would be neck and neck between the Brexit Party and Labour > > > > If you wish to stake your reputation (or even wager something with actual value) on Labour getting 27% or more and the Tories getting 20% or more, please go ahead... > > I think the Brexit Party will win the by election reasonably comfortably on Thursday, I was just pointing out what impact the new YouGov poll would have in Peterborough in terms of changes from the European elections if correct
If you believe it as a prediction, stand by it. If you don’t, please don’t waste our time making us read it.
> @IanB2 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1134059323582287873 > > > > > > > > > > > > That is the estimated Peterborough constituency result based on the European elections votes cast in the area > > > > > > > > > > But the EU election result itself has changed the narrative. > > > > > > > > Based on the latest YouGov last week and adjusting from the European election results the forecast for Peterborough on Thursday would be: > > > > > > > > Brexit Party 27% > > > > Labour 27% > > > > Tories 20% > > > > LDs 17% > > > > Greens 6% > > > > > > > > So would be neck and neck between the Brexit Party and Labour > > > > > > If you wish to stake your reputation (or even wager something with actual value) on Labour getting 27% or more and the Tories getting 20% or more, please go ahead... > > > > I think the Brexit Party will win the by election reasonably comfortably on Thursday, I was just pointing out what impact the new YouGov poll would have in Peterborough in terms of changes from the European elections if correct > > If you believe it as a prediction, stand by it. If you don’t, please don’t waste our time making us read it.
It was based on the YouGov poll changes whether people wish to read it or not is up to them, you can always scroll on rather than engage in a whiny whinge
> @IanB2 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @matt said: > > > > @matt said: > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1134835463053815808 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What was the point of posting that? Unless you want to emphasise that Banks is a graceless shit, which I doubt. What is your commentary and value add? > > > > > > It speaks for itself. > > > > > > > > > > > > However as Bristow is a staunch Leaver what it does show is no Tory candidate is immune at the moment from the Brexit Party surge until Brexit is delivered > > > > > > So the analysis is then that Banks is a graceless shit who wishes to replace the Conservative party with his own virulently unpleasant worldview. Implicitly you seem happy to support that in that you post his “thoughts” without a scintilla of criticism. > > > > Much as I would rather not have to bother to reply to your increasingly tiresome posts I would point out that while over 50% of 2017 Tories who voted in the European Parliament elections voted for the Brexit Party I still voted Tory > > > > Yet you continue to post such BXP c**p here?
I point out the obvious that the Tories have zero chance of winning the next general election unless they win back voters lost to the Brexit Party, if you do not like that fact, tough!
> @JosiasJessop said: > First its 'laughable' now its 'rant'. > > > > And this is why HS2 has failed to achieve any 'buy-in'. > > > > Like it or not my suggestion that HS2 needed to get actual construction work done is correct. > > > > Because without that it is time and money drifting away with nothing to show for it. > > > > And then some politician comes along and says "we should stop this waste of money and spend it on X". > > > > Compare with CrossRail - no matter how much incompetence, how much overspending, how many years of delays that involves it will still be completed. And that's because CrossRail got enough actual construction work done for it to become unstoppable. > > Well, you said I said something that I hadn't, and argued against that strawman instead of what I said. So yes, I think 'rant' is correct for the ill-informed comments you're making. > > And again, actual construction work is being done on HS2: they're classed as enabling works, but I dare you to argue that (say) diverting roads and utilities or digging launching shafts for TBM's isn't 'actual' work. > > I'd have more time for your arguments if you actually appeared to be clued up on what you're saying instead of (unusually for you) clueless on this topic. > > Again, I must ask: have you read the reports for HS2, or do you just go by headlines?
No I haven't read the reports and nor do I intend to.
And I'll tell you why - I've learnt enough to know that reports tend to provide reasoning for what the writers want to 'prove', whether that is for or against something. I could read every report on the issue and I would still be required to make a judgement on its value and as I don't have to make a judgement on its value I'll save my time for other things.
Now perhaps you'll think that should rule me out from giving thoughts on HS2 but I'm afraid that's how people generally operate and in particular that's how our politicians operate.
Instead I'll just reiterate the things what I've previously said.
Namely that HS2 is vulnerable to being stopped by politicians who need to find a source of money for more immediate or popular purposes.
That the best way for HS2 to guarantee its completion is to get some real construction work ongoing - and for some of that work to be in the North not just in London.
That I prefer infrastructure work to be small scale but regular and relevant to requirements whereas the bigger and more expensive and longer term spending is the more likely it is to go wrong and more likely to approved by politicians looking to big themselves up.
> > > What was the point of posting that? Unless you want to emphasise that Banks is a graceless shit, which I doubt. What is your commentary and value add?
> >
> > It speaks for itself.
> >
> >
> >
> > However as Bristow is a staunch Leaver what it does show is no Tory candidate is immune at the moment from the Brexit Party surge until Brexit is delivered
> >
> > So the analysis is then that Banks is a graceless shit who wishes to replace the Conservative party with his own virulently unpleasant worldview. Implicitly you seem happy to support that in that you post his “thoughts” without a scintilla of criticism.
>
> Much as I would rather not have to bother to reply to your increasingly tiresome posts I would point out that while over 50% of 2017 Tories who voted in the European Parliament elections voted for the Brexit Party I still voted Tory
> @matt said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @matt said: > > > > > @matt said: > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1134835463053815808 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What was the point of posting that? Unless you want to emphasise that Banks is a graceless shit, which I doubt. What is your commentary and value add? > > > > > > > > It speaks for itself. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > However as Bristow is a staunch Leaver what it does show is no Tory candidate is immune at the moment from the Brexit Party surge until Brexit is delivered > > > > > > > > So the analysis is then that Banks is a graceless shit who wishes to replace the Conservative party with his own virulently unpleasant worldview. Implicitly you seem happy to support that in that you post his “thoughts” without a scintilla of criticism. > > > > > > Much as I would rather not have to bother to reply to your increasingly tiresome posts I would point out that while over 50% of 2017 Tories who voted in the European Parliament elections voted for the Brexit Party I still voted Tory > > > > > > > Yet you continue to post such BXP c**p here? > > 54000 posts and counting.
When you actually manage to make 1 post with a tiny fraction of insight you might be able to lecture others, until then I suggest you be a bit less rude
No I haven't read the reports and nor do I intend to.
And I'll tell you why - I've learnt enough to know that reports tend to provide reasoning for what the writers want to 'prove', whether that is for or against something. I could read every report on the issue and I would still be required to make a judgement on its value and as I don't have to make a judgement on its value I'll save my time for other things.
Now perhaps you'll think that should rule me out from giving thoughts on HS2 but I'm afraid that's how people generally operate and in particular that's how our politicians operate.
Instead I'll just reiterate the things what I've previously said.
Namely that HS2 is vulnerable to being stopped by politicians who need to find a source of money for more immediate or popular purposes.
That the best way for HS2 to guarantee its completion is to get some real construction work ongoing - and for some of that work to be in the North not just in London.
That I prefer infrastructure work to be small scale but regular and relevant to requirements whereas the bigger and more expensive and longer term spending is the more likely it is to go wrong and more likely to approved by politicians looking to big themselves up.
And yet - despite what you claim above - you take reports from the anti- side as if they're fair and even-handed.
Your ideas on infrastructure are also appear fairly clueless - there comes a stage where 'small scale and regular' ends up being massively expensive short-term penny-pinching - the opposite of what you claim. As an example, much of the M5 was built as two lanes, and soon (I think before the southern end was completed) had to be widened to three lanes.
"Initially the section between present-day M42 and M50 was just two lanes each way. When the rest was built on either side - all with three lanes - this part became a huge bottleneck. The widening works took years, moving on from one section to the next and making the already-chronic congestion noticeably worse. The resulting road is excellent, but it could have been avoided if the M5, like most other motorways at the time, had been built with three lanes each way from the outset - saving massive disruption and an awful lot of money."
Or the M25, which feels like it has had constant roadworks and widenings since it opened.
Small scale and regular *can* work in some circumstances- but for many projects it is lunacy. In fact, politicians need congratulating on HS2 for *not* going down that route, biting the bullet and doing it properly.
And what's most depressing is that it will probably do her next-to-no harm.
40% of the population were prepared to vote for Corbyn-led Labour in the last GE, after all.
FWIW I think it most likely that the Brexit Party will get across the finishing line in the Peterborough by-election, but I wouldn't expect the Labour vote to just collapse like a failed soufflé. The Tory vote probably will, but Labour should at least finish second.
> @IanB2 said: > “So we must look out for the unexpected. Look out for a candidate who is good at shaking things up. Look out for someone who makes the established frontrunners appear staid, slow and stale, the way Barack Obama did in 2008 in the US and Emmanuel Macron did in 2017 in France. Look out for one of Rory Stewart, Penny Mordaunt, Matt Hancock or maybe Michael Gove. All seem to have grasped that this election may not, after all, be a race to appease the hard right. It may, instead, be won in the Conservative centre, and with the support of the Tory grassroots too.” > > https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/29/forget-boris-johnson-tory-leader-come-from-centre
Anecdotal, but spoke to a Tory activist in a NW marginal yesterday. Said the feeling in his local association was to get a candidate who can unite the party and beat Corbyn. Mostly leavers who sat out the Euro campaign but viewed Brexit as something to get out of the way in whatever form they can so that can move forward. More annoyance/fury that May was in negotiations with Corbyn than anything about Brexit itself. Liked Gove, but thought too unpopular to win GE, thought McVey Raab and other no dealers too divisive for party. Boris unreliable. Liked Hunt.
In short, wants to have the election be all about "fighting Marxism" (!) and have a Tory leader who will get the Tory vote of all stripes back onside. Bizarrely to me was pretty confident that the Tories wold win the next election with a majority in a low turnout election.
> @JosiasJessop said: > > > And yet - despite what you claim above - you take reports from the anti- side as if they're fair and even-handed. > > Your ideas on infrastructure are also appear fairly clueless - there comes a stage where 'small scale and regular' ends up being massively expensive short-term penny-pinching - the opposite of what you claim. As an example, much of the M5 was built as two lanes, and soon (I think before the southern end was completed) had to be widened to three lanes. > > "Initially the section between present-day M42 and M50 was just two lanes each way. When the rest was built on either side - all with three lanes - this part became a huge bottleneck. The widening works took years, moving on from one section to the next and making the already-chronic congestion noticeably worse. The resulting road is excellent, but it could have been avoided if the M5, like most other motorways at the time, had been built with three lanes each way from the outset - saving massive disruption and an awful lot of money." > > https://www.sabre-roads.org.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=31860&sid=524e589be40ea1f430e4313be429832e&start=2060 > > Or the M25, which feels like it has had constant roadworks and widenings since it opened. > > Small scale and regular *can* work in some circumstances- but for many projects it is lunacy. In fact, politicians need congratulating on HS2 for *not* going down that route, biting the bullet and doing it properly.
While you take reports from the pro side as if they're fair and even handed.
We all remember things which confirm our thoughts and prejudices, whatever they are. Those that don't are better when the reader is more of a 'blank slate' and open to persuasion.
And accusing people of being clueless, laughable or ranting doesn't persuade
Large scale infrastructure can work but it can be a disaster or years behind schedule, billions over budget or no longer relevant when completed. These risks might apply to anything but the bigger the project the bigger the risk.
As I said before if HS2 is cancelled it will be because they have got no proper construction going yet and were complacent in thinking that the money would always be there. The failure of CrossRail to come in on time and on budget has rather 'queered the pitch' as well I suspect.
What happens we will see but at least we can rest assured it will not be our decision.
While you take reports from the pro side as if they're fair and even handed.
We all remember things which confirm our thoughts and prejudices, whatever they are. Those that don't are better when the reader is more of a 'blank slate' and open to persuasion.
And accusing people of being clueless, laughable or ranting doesn't persuade
Large scale infrastructure can work but it can be a disaster or years behind schedule, billions over budget or no longer relevant when completed. These risks might apply to anything but the bigger the project the bigger the risk.
As I said before if HS2 is cancelled it will be because they have got no proper construction going yet and were complacent in thinking that the money would always be there. The failure of CrossRail to come in on time and on budget has rather 'queered the pitch' as well I suspect.
What happens we will see but at least we can rest assured it will not be our decision.
As should be clear, I've read both pro- and anti- reports (I can't say I've read all of the latter, but I've read many), and might have forgotten a lot of it. Reading the anti- reports can be a little soul-destroying, especially when they rehash the same (IMO bogus) arguments such as "just rebuild the GC main line!".
I like the way you've shifted your position to no 'proper' construction yet. At least it's an indication you're reading what I'm saying, and some seems to be slipping in. So what is 'proper' construction ?
You've made no indication that you're a blank slate or open to persuasion on HS2. You've admitted to being anti- the project, and that your view is based on bias, not data.
I'm not saying HS2 will definitely be a success. I'd be stupid to say that. It faces many problems and issues going ahead. When it is complete, the future traffic projections might be wrong (although to be fair, they could be wrong in either direction). The costs might spiral (though not as stupidly as some of the claims being made). The politics might kill it before it is built (though hopefully based on better reasoning and information that you've provided in this conversation).
If it dies, then IMO the costs of the Euston work will be a big part of the reason.
But the evidence indicates it will be needed; and the traffic growth of the last thirty years is a very compelling piece of evidence.
Finally: you ranted about something I hadn't said, so I said you ranted. You actually admit to being clueless as you don't read information that goes against your view. And your arguments - based on nothing but bias - are for that reason laughable.
I'll give you one piece of credit, though: you haven't lied and pretended to have read stuff when you hadn't.
> @JosiasJessop said: > > As should be clear, I've read both pro- and anti- reports (I can't say I've read all of the latter, but I've read many), and might have forgotten a lot of it. Reading the anti- reports can be a little soul-destroying, especially when they rehash the same (IMO bogus) arguments such as "just rebuild the GC main line!". > > I like the way you've shifted your position to no 'proper' construction yet. At least it's an indication you're reading what I'm saying, and some seems to be slipping in. So what is 'proper' construction ? > > You've made no indication that you're a blank slate or open to persuasion on HS2. You've admitted to being anti- the project, and that your view is based on bias, not data. > > I'm not saying HS2 will definitely be a success. I'd be stupid to say that. It faces many problems and issues going ahead. When it is complete, the future traffic projections might be wrong (although to be fair, they could be wrong in either direction). The costs might spiral (though not as stupidly as some of the claims being made). The politics might kill it before it is built (though hopefully based on better reasoning and information that you've provided in this conversation). > > If it dies, then IMO the costs of the Euston work will be a big part of the reason. > > But the evidence indicates it will be needed; and the traffic growth of the last thirty years is a very compelling piece of evidence. > > Finally: you ranted about something I hadn't said, so I said you ranted. You actually admit to being clueless as you don't read information that goes against your view. And your arguments - based on nothing but bias - are for that reason laughable. > > I'll give you one piece of credit, though: you haven't lied and pretended to have read stuff when you hadn't.
Well I'm not going back to see who said what about who.
But I'll say I was a blank slate about HS2 at the start and they failed to convince me and nothing has occurred since to change my mind.
Rather the steadily escalating costs and time delays and the suggestions of mendacity about them has led to a steady loss of my trust in the project.
I work in an area where we try to under-promise and over-deliver and have an instinctive distrust of organisations which operate in the opposite manner.
Perhaps that is unfair to HS2 but when there is continual tolerance towards this practice among large scale infrastructure projects, CrossRail being a clear example, then there is a price to be paid in public trust.
Well I'm not going back to see who said what about who.
But I'll say I was a blank slate about HS2 at the start and they failed to convince me and nothing has occurred since to change my mind.
Rather the steadily escalating costs and time delays and the suggestions of mendacity about them has led to a steady loss of my trust in the project.
I work in an area where we try to under-promise and over-deliver and have an instinctive distrust of organisations which operate in the opposite manner.
Perhaps that is unfair to HS2 but when there is continual tolerance towards this practice among large scale infrastructure projects, CrossRail being a clear example, then there is a price to be paid in public trust.
There's an old saying that goes something like: "You can deliver a project on time, on budget, or on spec. You can choose two of these, but getting all three is as rare as rocking-hose sh*t."
The problem is that the saying applies to small projects as much as it does large ones. In the case of the WCML upgrade, it failed to achieve any of them.
Your attitude to infrastructure projects may be well-intentioned, but it is the usual in the UK, and also leads to massive problems. As I said above (and you appear to have ignored), the many-small-projects approach to infrastructures has been fairly disastrous in the past - see the M5, M25 and (in my area) the A14, all of which were done piecemeal and on the cheap, only to soon be at capacity and require enhancements. In all those cases - and more - I'd argue that the costs of the later works, plus congestion, cost much more than doing it right in the first place.
Your claim that politicians like the large projects is also not really backed up by reality: if it was, we'd have much better infrastructure than we do. In reality, the habit is for them to do penny-pinching small projects that appear to meet requirements, but which are fatally flawed by cost reduction. This is particularly true when they want to see the 'rewards' of the project (i.e. completion) whilst they are still in power.
Short-termism is a curse of western politics, and that goes for infrastructure as much as other policy areas.
Comments
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > @SandyRentool said:
> > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > I could see Gove v Raab being the final two.
> > > >
> > > > And I thought that this morning before even reading the article!
> > > >
> > > > However far Hunt goes he will fail (ultimately at the members) because he's flip flopped and doesn't offer anything.
> > > >
> > > > Gove, Raab and Stewart are the ones who have (the last mainly outreach and rhetoric) but if Gove does become PM I think he will admire the cut of Rory's jib and offer him a senior position in his cabinet.
> > >
> > > The membership would elect Raaaab in all likelihood. The MPs can't give them the choice of someone to the right of Gove.
> > >
> > > Of course, from a Labour perspective, McVey v Baker in the run off would be ideal.
> >
> > I'm not so sure.
> >
> > Gove is well respected amongst the membership. They will vote for whoever they believe can most credibly deliver Brexit.
> >
> > Raab would risk revoke and no Brexit whereas Gove would get the job done.
>
> Tory members would vote for Raab over Gove 56% to 35% according to last week's ConHome Tory members poll
>
> https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/05/next-tory-leader-run-offs-our-panels-support-hasnt-changed-they-want-johnson-followed-by-raab-gove-javid-and-hunt-in-that-order.html
>
> Raab has committed to take the UK out of the EU by the end of October Deal or No Deal
I'd take Conhome polls with a very large pinch of salt.
I'd expect the race to be competitive and close.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1134800823899369472
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > The Social Democrats really are in serious trouble. I thought they'd bottomed out at around 15% but it seems they can go even lower.
> > >
> > > Greens have become the main opposition party now ! It's like Pasok in Greece and a fate which could befall one Labour or the Tories. Perhaps both
> >
> > Given the latest Yougov has LDs first and Brexit Party second it has already hit both.
> >
> > In France too Les Republicains and the Socialist Party trail Le Pen's Party and En Marche and in Italy Forza Italia now trails Salvini's Lega Nord
>
> A little while back 4 or 5 parties in Germany were within a few points of each other. If this poll is correct SPD and AFD are now 'also rans'. The Green surge is impressive.
Yet under German PR the Greens cannot form a Government without the SPD unless they do a coalition with the CDU in which case they lose their left flank back to the SPD.
The AFD rise meanwhile prevents the CDU getting enough seats for a coalition with the FDP
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > @MarkHopkins said:
> > > Can anyone explain to me how back-stabber Gove, who suckles on the teat of Climate Correctness, and only offers a continuity-May plan, can possibly save the Tories?
> >
> > Gove does have a tendency to take things too far.
> >
> > I could see him going full Greta Thunberg and declaring a climate emergency if he wins, for example.
>
> That. And the public strongly dislike him as well.
They do. On the other hand he's intelligent, competent and would probably achieve in a number of domestic policy areas as PM at the same time.
@TheScreamingEagles has been busy in Madrid.
> https://twitter.com/DrPhillipLeeMP/status/1134811478668840961
I expect he’ll be resigning the whip soon . The death cult continue to try and remove any saner Tories.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > @SandyRentool said:
> > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > I could see Gove v Raab being the final two.
> > > >
> > > > And I thought that this morning before even reading the article!
> > > >
> > > > However far Hunt goes he will fail (ultimately at the members) because he's flip flopped and doesn't offer anything.
> > > >
> > > > Gove, Raab and Stewart are the ones who have (the last mainly outreach and rhetoric) but if Gove does become PM I think he will admire the cut of Rory's jib and offer him a senior position in his cabinet.
> > >
> > > The membership would elect Raaaab in all likelihood. The MPs can't give them the choice of someone to the right of Gove.
> > >
> > > Of course, from a Labour perspective, McVey v Baker in the run off would be ideal.
> >
> > I'm not so sure.
> >
> > Gove is well respected amongst the membership. They will vote for whoever they believe can most credibly deliver Brexit.
> >
> > Raab would risk revoke and no Brexit whereas Gove would get the job done.
>
> But you are more sensible than the median Tory member (and probably the upper quartile). The nutters are judging by one metric alone, and it isn't a helpful or sensible one (see downthread). The only hope is that, knowing this, the MPs head them off at the pass
Thank you, and I'm not sure. There are more sensible Tory members than you think.
Conhome is not representative. It's nickname used to be UKIP home and its polling techniques are self-selecting and far from scientific.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > I could see Gove v Raab being the final two.
> >
> > And I thought that this morning before even reading the article!
> >
> > However far Hunt goes he will fail (ultimately at the members) because he's flip flopped and doesn't offer anything.
> >
> > Gove, Raab and Stewart are the ones who have (the last mainly outreach and rhetoric) but if Gove does become PM I think he will admire the cut of Rory's jib and offer him a senior position in his cabinet.
>
> The membership would elect Raaaab in all likelihood. The MPs can't give them the choice of someone to the right of Gove.
>
> Of course, from a Labour perspective, McVey v Baker in the run off would be ideal.
There's a parliamentary caucus of 80-110 solid Brexit MPs. That will be enough for a Brexiter to make the final two.
But, there are also 160+ pragmatist MPs who will select the best candidate for the job.
So, I expect the candidates in the final two to follow accordingly unless each of them can creatively reach out to both caucuses.
> Is there any abiity in UK election law to stand as a candidate for multiple parties ? (AS happens in New York where for example Bill De Balsio ran for mayor of NYC as the Democratic Party candidate and also the Working Families Party cnadidate)
>
> Was wondering if it is an option for the Brexit Party if they wnted to have 650 candidates but didn't want to stand against a rabid Brexiteer MP.
>
> I know the Cooperative Party has candidates who are simultaneously Labour candidates, but I think that's a different set up.
Yougov has Tory members narrowly backing a pact with the Brexit Party 49% to 39%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/06/our-survey-almost-half-of-tory-members-now-want-an-electoral-pact-with-the-brexit-party.html
> https://twitter.com/joejbbuckley/status/1134502561594036224
>
>
>
> @TheScreamingEagles has been busy in Madrid.
Wouldn't it have been more suitable to rename it 'Red Square' - after their team's colours of course.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > @SandyRentool said:
> > > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > > I could see Gove v Raab being the final two.
> > > > >
> > > > > And I thought that this morning before even reading the article!
> > > > >
> > > > > However far Hunt goes he will fail (ultimately at the members) because he's flip flopped and doesn't offer anything.
> > > > >
> > > > > Gove, Raab and Stewart are the ones who have (the last mainly outreach and rhetoric) but if Gove does become PM I think he will admire the cut of Rory's jib and offer him a senior position in his cabinet.
> > > >
> > > > The membership would elect Raaaab in all likelihood. The MPs can't give them the choice of someone to the right of Gove.
> > > >
> > > > Of course, from a Labour perspective, McVey v Baker in the run off would be ideal.
> > >
> > > I'm not so sure.
> > >
> > > Gove is well respected amongst the membership. They will vote for whoever they believe can most credibly deliver Brexit.
> > >
> > > Raab would risk revoke and no Brexit whereas Gove would get the job done.
> >
> > Tory members would vote for Raab over Gove 56% to 35% according to last week's ConHome Tory members poll
> >
> > https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/05/next-tory-leader-run-offs-our-panels-support-hasnt-changed-they-want-johnson-followed-by-raab-gove-javid-and-hunt-in-that-order.html
> >
> > Raab has committed to take the UK out of the EU by the end of October Deal or No Deal
>
> I'd take Conhome polls with a very large pinch of salt.
>
> I'd expect the race to be competitive and close.
Yougov also had Raab beating Gove in a recent Tory members' poll 58% to 42%.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/17/boris-johnson-holds-commanding-lead-among-tory-mem
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > @SandyRentool said:
> > > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > > I could see Gove v Raab being the final two.
> > > > >
> > > > > And I thought that this morning before even reading the article!
> > > > >
> > > > > However far Hunt goes he will fail (ultimately at the members) because he's flip flopped and doesn't offer anything.
> > > > >
> > > > > Gove, Raab and Stewart are the ones who have (the last mainly outreach and rhetoric) but if Gove does become PM I think he will admire the cut of Rory's jib and offer him a senior position in his cabinet.
> > > >
> > > > The membership would elect Raaaab in all likelihood. The MPs can't give them the choice of someone to the right of Gove.
> > > >
> > > > Of course, from a Labour perspective, McVey v Baker in the run off would be ideal.
> > >
> > > I'm not so sure.
> > >
> > > Gove is well respected amongst the membership. They will vote for whoever they believe can most credibly deliver Brexit.
> > >
> > > Raab would risk revoke and no Brexit whereas Gove would get the job done.
> >
> > But you are more sensible than the median Tory member (and probably the upper quartile). The nutters are judging by one metric alone, and it isn't a helpful or sensible one (see downthread). The only hope is that, knowing this, the MPs head them off at the pass
>
> Thank you, and I'm not sure. There are more sensible Tory members than you think.
>
> Conhome is not representative. It's nickname used to be UKIP home and its polling techniques are self-selecting and far from scientific.
Actually ConHome's results are very close to Yougov's and Tim Bale's Tory members polls
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > > @SandyRentool said:
> > > > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > > > I could see Gove v Raab being the final two.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > And I thought that this morning before even reading the article!
> > > > > >
> > > > > > However far Hunt goes he will fail (ultimately at the members) because he's flip flopped and doesn't offer anything.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Gove, Raab and Stewart are the ones who have (the last mainly outreach and rhetoric) but if Gove does become PM I think he will admire the cut of Rory's jib and offer him a senior position in his cabinet.
> > > > >
> > > > > The membership would elect Raaaab in all likelihood. The MPs can't give them the choice of someone to the right of Gove.
> > > > >
> > > > > Of course, from a Labour perspective, McVey v Baker in the run off would be ideal.
> > > >
> > > > I'm not so sure.
> > > >
> > > > Gove is well respected amongst the membership. They will vote for whoever they believe can most credibly deliver Brexit.
> > > >
> > > > Raab would risk revoke and no Brexit whereas Gove would get the job done.
> > >
> > > Tory members would vote for Raab over Gove 56% to 35% according to last week's ConHome Tory members poll
> > >
> > > https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/05/next-tory-leader-run-offs-our-panels-support-hasnt-changed-they-want-johnson-followed-by-raab-gove-javid-and-hunt-in-that-order.html
> > >
> > > Raab has committed to take the UK out of the EU by the end of October Deal or No Deal
> >
> > I'd take Conhome polls with a very large pinch of salt.
> >
> > I'd expect the race to be competitive and close.
>
> Yougov also had Raab beating Gove in a recent Tory members' poll 58% to 42%.
>
> https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/17/boris-johnson-holds-commanding-lead-among-tory-mem
Yougov is a better source but that's still not an insurmountable lead - an 8% swing would do it off a poll that probably has a 3-5% MoE anyway and polling off superficial appeal of the candidates only.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/DrPhillipLeeMP/status/1134811478668840961
>
> I expect he’ll be resigning the whip soon . The death cult continue to try and remove any saner Tories.
Lee is one of the lunatics who have put us in this position. He is as much part of a death cult as the ERG. With any luck he will be out of Parliament very soon so he can do no more damage to our democracy.
> > @nico67 said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > https://twitter.com/DrPhillipLeeMP/status/1134811478668840961
> >
> > I expect he’ll be resigning the whip soon . The death cult continue to try and remove any saner Tories.
>
> Lee is one of the lunatics who have put us in this position. He is as much part of a death cult as the ERG. With any luck he will be out of Parliament very soon so he can do no more damage to our democracy.
Lee is as eager as anybody to stir shit.
https://twitter.com/TiceRichard/status/1134496924927741952?s=20
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > > > @SandyRentool said:
> > > > > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > > > > I could see Gove v Raab being the final two.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > And I thought that this morning before even reading the article!
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > However far Hunt goes he will fail (ultimately at the members) because he's flip flopped and doesn't offer anything.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Gove, Raab and Stewart are the ones who have (the last mainly outreach and rhetoric) but if Gove does become PM I think he will admire the cut of Rory's jib and offer him a senior position in his cabinet.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The membership would elect Raaaab in all likelihood. The MPs can't give them the choice of someone to the right of Gove.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Of course, from a Labour perspective, McVey v Baker in the run off would be ideal.
> > > > >
> > > > > I'm not so sure.
> > > > >
> > > > > Gove is well respected amongst the membership. They will vote for whoever they believe can most credibly deliver Brexit.
> > > > >
> > > > > Raab would risk revoke and no Brexit whereas Gove would get the job done.
> > > >
> > > > Tory members would vote for Raab over Gove 56% to 35% according to last week's ConHome Tory members poll
> > > >
> > > > https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/05/next-tory-leader-run-offs-our-panels-support-hasnt-changed-they-want-johnson-followed-by-raab-gove-javid-and-hunt-in-that-order.html
> > > >
> > > > Raab has committed to take the UK out of the EU by the end of October Deal or No Deal
> > >
> > > I'd take Conhome polls with a very large pinch of salt.
> > >
> > > I'd expect the race to be competitive and close.
> >
> > Yougov also had Raab beating Gove in a recent Tory members' poll 58% to 42%.
> >
> > https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/17/boris-johnson-holds-commanding-lead-among-tory-mem
>
> Yougov is a better source but that's still not an insurmountable lead - an 8% swing would do it off a poll that probably has a 3-5% MoE anyway and polling off superficial appeal of the candidates only.
Gove has more chance than say Stewart and Hancock but whichever of Boris or Raab gets to the membership likely wins it, Gove needs both to fail to make the runoff with MPs to have a chance
> > @Chris said:
> > > @viewcode said:
> > > It is a religious symbol for the Hindu religion and is widely used in temples in India - and has been for over 4,000 years as you say. It was invented in India - not Germany - and was a symbol used to promote peace and prosperity.
> > >
> > > The Nazis also used torches for their rallies - should people be banned from using torches as symbols - the Tories used one for years?
> > >
> > > How did the argument get to the point where you are arguing for the rehabilitation of the swastika and the torchlight parade?
> >
> > Let a thousand flowers bloom, and a thousand burning crosses blaze, as Nazis brandish flaming torches and wave swastika flags.
> >
> > Maybe this is the new tolerance?
>
> We were merely debating the origin of the Swastika - the Nazis didn't invent it they stole it.
>
> The point was that in India it is a religious symbol and therefore its perfectly legitimate for Hindus to continue use a symbol they invented and had been using for 4,000 years in their religion including as an emblem on temples - as opposed to 15. Its hardly their fault Hitler stole it to promote his evil philosophy.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
It is all context dependent. Few are disturbed by a swastica as part of the facade of a Hindu temple, or a swatika tattoo on an elderly Indian lady, as I do see in Leicester from time to time. A swastika tattoo on a Tommy Robinson supporter is quite a different thing.
Some other venerable things such as the forename Adolph, and the toothbrush moustache are rather out of fashion too.
> https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1134518938270928896?s=20
No he won't.
Not this time around anyway.
Presumably you'd have no issue allowing BXP to fight seats like East Ham but they might not see it in those terms.
When the Liberals and SDP had to work out who would "lead" in seats, they of course started from having many fewer MPs and many more areas of almost nil activity.
However, I fear Boris will win through then absolutely anything could happen
Mind you, it will not be on our votes in this household and no doubt we will be able to say
'Don't blame us, we did not vote Boris'
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/DrPhillipLeeMP/status/1134811478668840961
>
> I expect he’ll be resigning the whip soon . The death cult continue to try and remove any saner Tories.
Is that the Phillip Lee who described the NHS as a ponzi scheme which was about to collapse ?
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-minister-warns-nhs-ponzi-11278497
> Hyufd - you rely far too much on polls in forming your opinions
>
> However, I fear Boris will win through then absolutely anything could happen
>
> Mind you, it will not be on our votes in this household and no doubt we will be able to say
>
> 'Don't blame us, we did not vote Boris'
Having been canvassing with Tory members in Woodford this morning there was as much support for Raab and McVey as Boris with Cleverly also picking up support.
Against Raab or McVey Boris would actually be the moderate candidate
> https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1134835463053815808
>
>
>
> The Brexit Party are unstoppable and will undoubtedly triumph. Nevertheless, it's nice to fantasize about them tripping up. There's a real 'we're the masters now' attitude about them.
Probably a necessary thing to get a few BXP people elected. The most established and proven way to combat support for populist parties is to actual provide a platform for them to be shown to be absolutely useless. (See eg. BNP/UKIP councils - and UKIP in the European Parliament for that matter)
> Yougov has Tory members narrowly backing a pact with the Brexit Party 49% to 39%
>
> How would that work in practice? Would you and the Epping Forest MP stand down in favour of a Brexit Party candidate? I suspect not.
>
> Presumably you'd have no issue allowing BXP to fight seats like East Ham but they might not see it in those terms.
>
> When the Liberals and SDP had to work out who would "lead" in seats, they of course started from having many fewer MPs and many more areas of almost nil activity.
No, although on the latest Yougov the Brexit Party would win Epping Forest anyway thus the Tories need to get Brexit delivered to avoid heavy losses.
I agree with you a pact is unlikely to work and the Brexit Party would still put up candidates against the majority of Tory MPs who voted for the Withdrawal Agreement or to revoke Article 50 or for EUref2.
Plus Tory Remainers would block any formal pact
> > @Stark_Dawning said:
> > https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1134835463053815808
> >
> >
> >
> > The Brexit Party are unstoppable and will undoubtedly triumph. Nevertheless, it's nice to fantasize about them tripping up. There's a real 'we're the masters now' attitude about them.
>
> Probably a necessary thing to get a few BXP people elected. The most established and proven way to combat support for populist parties is to actual provide a platform for them to be shown to be absolutely useless. (See eg. BNP/UKIP councils - and UKIP in the European Parliament for that matter)
>
>
Took a while for that to happen to Labour in Wales though
> So reports which support your view are good but those that oppose it are 'laughable'.
>
>
>
> How about this report:
>
>
>
> ' HS2 will not offer value for money and risks "short changing" the North of England, a group of peers has warned.
>
>
>
> A report from the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee also said it was "far from convinced" the new high-speed railway will be built within the £55.7bn budget.
>
>
>
> It said the project should not go ahead without a new assessment of its costs and benefits. '
>
>
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48284105
>
> I said 'most of the reports', not all of them, and so your rant is rather ill-judged.
>
> There are valid criticisms of the HS2 project - and I've often mentioned them on here. I'm not a blind fan. However I can also call out the b/s arguments.
>
> And yes, you should read that HoL report. And whilst you are at it, you should read the pro- reports I've linked to many times passim.
>
> That's the report that said HS2 should stop at Old Oak Common instead of going into Euston. If that's the case, then the report's as laughable as all of the others. It's an insanely stupid idea, and a sign of utter dishonesty.
>
> To aid you, the report is here:
> https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldeconaf/359/359.pdf
First its 'laughable' now its 'rant'.
And this is why HS2 has failed to achieve any 'buy-in'.
Like it or not my suggestion that HS2 needed to get actual construction work done is correct.
Because without that it is time and money drifting away with nothing to show for it.
And then some politician comes along and says "we should stop this waste of money and spend it on X".
Compare with CrossRail - no matter how much incompetence, how much overspending, how many years of delays that involves it will still be completed. And that's because CrossRail got enough actual construction work done for it to become unstoppable.
> https://twitter.com/MikeGreeneTBP/status/1134775584595369984?s=20
>
> https://twitter.com/TiceRichard/status/1134496924927741952?s=20
Compare and contrast
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D7-EJJmX4AArzZY.jpg
Seems Jezbollah not as popular as he once was.
> https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1134835463053815808
> What was the point of posting that? Unless you want to emphasise that Banks is a graceless shit, which I doubt. What is your commentary and value add?
The first 3 responders on that thread had 131 followers between them.
> https://twitter.com/MikeGreeneTBP/status/1134775584595369984?s=20
>
> https://twitter.com/TiceRichard/status/1134496924927741952?s=20
anyone else reminded of "Dad's Army" by the Brexit Party arrow logo?
> > @matt said:
> > https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1134835463053815808
>
> > What was the point of posting that? Unless you want to emphasise that Banks is a graceless shit, which I doubt. What is your commentary and value add?
>
>
> The first 3 responders on that thread had 131 followers between them.
So normal people then? What is with the # of followers as some sort of phallic indicator that people have?
"Dr. Prasannan, I think I inherited it or was given it by a great aunt... I'd have to check (I was quite young at the time)."
....................................................................................................
My father gave me the first editions of "The Jungle Book" and "The Second Jungle Book", both published in the mid 1890's. Lovely blue cloth covers with gold embossed decoration.
I had the opportunity many moons ago to purchase copies of both books signed by Kipling but decided that my fathers own copies passed to his son could not be bettered.
Additionally the signed copies were an arm and a leg and anatomically Mrs JackW's shod feet must come first .... she advises me so most directly and quite regularly ....
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/MikeGreeneTBP/status/1134775584595369984?s=20
> >
> > https://twitter.com/TiceRichard/status/1134496924927741952?s=20
>
> anyone else reminded of "Dad's Army" by the Brexit Party arrow logo?
I hope main party strategists are utterly terrified by that top photo. If they aren't they should be.
Jezza's team as much as Tories.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > Hyufd - you rely far too much on polls in forming your opinions
> >
> > However, I fear Boris will win through then absolutely anything could happen
> >
> > Mind you, it will not be on our votes in this household and no doubt we will be able to say
> >
> > 'Don't blame us, we did not vote Boris'
>
> Having been canvassing with Tory members in Woodford this morning there was as much support for Raab and McVey as Boris with Cleverly also picking up support.
>
> Against Raab or McVey Boris would actually be the moderate candidate
Until reality hit them fair and square
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/MikeGreeneTBP/status/1134775584595369984?s=20
> >
> > https://twitter.com/TiceRichard/status/1134496924927741952?s=20
>
> anyone else reminded of "Dad's Army" by the Brexit Party arrow logo?
The first pic suggested 'I'm standing next to this prick' signs.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/MikeGreeneTBP/status/1134775584595369984?s=20
> >
> > https://twitter.com/TiceRichard/status/1134496924927741952?s=20
>
> Compare and contrast
>
> https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D7-EJJmX4AArzZY.jpg
>
> Seems Jezbollah not as popular as he once was.
>
>
Labour needs a leadership challenge this summer.
I've got old copies, of similar vintage, of Treasure Island and King Arthur tales, though both are in a worse state of repair.
> https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1134835463053815808
>
>
>
> What was the point of posting that? Unless you want to emphasise that Banks is a graceless shit, which I doubt. What is your commentary and value add?
It speaks for itself.
However as Bristow is a staunch Leaver what it does show is no Tory candidate is immune at the moment from the Brexit Party surge until Brexit is delivered
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/MikeGreeneTBP/status/1134775584595369984?s=20
> >
> > https://twitter.com/TiceRichard/status/1134496924927741952?s=20
>
> Compare and contrast
>
> https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D7-EJJmX4AArzZY.jpg
>
> Seems Jezbollah not as popular as he once was.
>
>
Jezzah addressing fewer people than the Brexit Party had ready to campaign in that theatre in what looked like the back of an allotment
> > @logical_song said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > >
> > > > > https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1134800823899369472
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > The Social Democrats really are in serious trouble. I thought they'd bottomed out at around 15% but it seems they can go even lower.
> > > >
> > > > Greens have become the main opposition party now ! It's like Pasok in Greece and a fate which could befall one Labour or the Tories. Perhaps both
> > >
> > > Given the latest Yougov has LDs first and Brexit Party second it has already hit both.
> > >
> > > In France too Les Republicains and the Socialist Party trail Le Pen's Party and En Marche and in Italy Forza Italia now trails Salvini's Lega Nord
> >
> > A little while back 4 or 5 parties in Germany were within a few points of each other. If this poll is correct SPD and AFD are now 'also rans'. The Green surge is impressive.
>
> Yet under German PR the Greens cannot form a Government without the SPD unless they do a coalition with the CDU in which case they lose their left flank back to the SPD.
>
> The AFD rise meanwhile prevents the CDU getting enough seats for a coalition with the FDP
Those numbers in a federal election would definitely lead to a Green-CDU coalition, whether the CSU could live with that is another question.
There have been several Bundesländer with CDU-Green coalitions (currently 4 I think, including Baden-Württemburg where the state government is headed by a Green) so the Greens have few problems forming coalitions with the CDU or vice versa.
edit: looking at the figures again there would also be a majority for Green-SPD-Linke, or Green-SPD-FDP, or even CDU-SPD-FDP but more likely the SPD would go into opposition I think
> > @Stark_Dawning said:
> > https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1134835463053815808
> >
> >
> >
> > The Brexit Party are unstoppable and will undoubtedly triumph. Nevertheless, it's nice to fantasize about them tripping up. There's a real 'we're the masters now' attitude about them.
>
> Probably a necessary thing to get a few BXP people elected. The most established and proven way to combat support for populist parties is to actual provide a platform for them to be shown to be absolutely useless. (See eg. BNP/UKIP councils - and UKIP in the European Parliament for that matter)
>
>
And it’s only a matter of time before the new MP(s) fall out with Farage, who always wants to be the only big fish in the pond.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/MikeGreeneTBP/status/1134775584595369984?s=20
> >
> > https://twitter.com/TiceRichard/status/1134496924927741952?s=20
>
> anyone else reminded of "Dad's Army" by the Brexit Party arrow logo?
I am always minded of the Kelis video , 'Tricked you once and I'm gonna trick you twice'
Appropriate then that The Boys bring all the milkshake to Farage
> > @Theuniondivvie said:
> > > @matt said:
> > > https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1134835463053815808
> >
> > > What was the point of posting that? Unless you want to emphasise that Banks is a graceless shit, which I doubt. What is your commentary and value add?
> >
> >
> > The first 3 responders on that thread had 131 followers between them.
>
> So normal people then? What is with the # of followers as some sort of phallic indicator that people have?
I'm glad that we have an expert to arbitrate on what's normal, though not sure why you had to bring phalluses into it. Personally I'd think being on Twitter for 7 years and picking up only 30 followers is verging on the extraordinary.
> According to UNS, Labour should still hold Peterborough. It's a by-election but they're not the government and they were able to triumph in Newport West where UKIP stood a candidate
No, the election hangs on whether enough Tory and Labour supporters vote LibDem this time in order to stop the Brexit Party from winning....
> > @Floater said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/MikeGreeneTBP/status/1134775584595369984?s=20
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/TiceRichard/status/1134496924927741952?s=20
> >
> > Compare and contrast
> >
> > https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D7-EJJmX4AArzZY.jpg
> >
> > Seems Jezbollah not as popular as he once was.
> >
> >
>
> Labour needs a leadership challenge this summer.
Why wait?
Kick the anti semite loons out now.
"Mr. W, ah, mine has a red cover, and no gold. It's still a nice little book, though.
I've got old copies, of similar vintage, of Treasure Island and King Arthur tales, though both are in a worse state of repair."
...................................................................................................
Regardless of age and edition I'm sure they are treasured possessions.
Early editions, not firsts, of the blue cloth books are also available for about £30-£50 for the pair. "The Jungle Book" has gold elephants on the front cover and "The Second Jungle Book" a gold cobra.
And again, actual construction work is being done on HS2: they're classed as enabling works, but I dare you to argue that (say) diverting roads and utilities or digging launching shafts for TBM's isn't 'actual' work.
I'd have more time for your arguments if you actually appeared to be clued up on what you're saying instead of (unusually for you) clueless on this topic.
Again, I must ask: have you read the reports for HS2, or do you just go by headlines?
> https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1134059323582287873
That is the estimated Peterborough constituency result based on the European elections votes cast in the area
> ttps://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1134059323582287873
>
>
>
> Not a poll btw.
No, sorry, I should have been clearer. That's the EU vote mapped onto the seat I believe.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1134059323582287873
>
> That is the estimated Peterborough constituency result based on the European elections votes cast in the area
But the EU election result itself has changed the narrative.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > According to UNS, Labour should still hold Peterborough. It's a by-election but they're not the government and they were able to triumph in Newport West where UKIP stood a candidate
>
> No, the election hangs on whether enough Tory and Labour supporters vote LibDem this time in order to stop the Brexit Party from winning....
I think the demographic profile of the seat favours TBP. Others would favour the Lib Dems much more (eg Brecon & Radnor).
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > According to UNS, Labour should still hold Peterborough. It's a by-election but they're not the government and they were able to triumph in Newport West where UKIP stood a candidate
> >
> > No, the election hangs on whether enough Tory and Labour supporters vote LibDem this time in order to stop the Brexit Party from winning....
>
> I think the demographic profile of the seat favours TBP. Others would favour the Lib Dems much more (eg Brecon & Radnor).
TBP are favourites and probably have victory nailed on, for sure. The question is which other party has any chance at all of beating them. Tories, nil. Labour, negligible, since it will be lucky to hang on to more than its loyal ethnic vote in the seat. The LibDems will probably be second, and are the only ones capable, even at a long shot, of seeing Farage’s pet millionaire defeated.
"LibDem Party membership is up by 11,000 since the Euro elections."
....................................................................................................
Auchentennach Fine Pies thanks you .....
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1134059323582287873
> >
> > That is the estimated Peterborough constituency result based on the European elections votes cast in the area
>
> But the EU election result itself has changed the narrative.
Based on the latest YouGov last week and adjusting from the European election results the forecast for Peterborough on Thursday would be:
Brexit Party 27%
Labour 27%
Tories 20%
LDs 17%
Greens 6%
So would be neck and neck between the Brexit Party and Labour
> https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1134059323582287873
I don't think the Tories will do as badly as that, and the Greens not as well as 10%. I'd predict something like:
BRX 30%
Lab 25%
Con 19%
LD 15%
UKIP 4%
Green 3%
SDP 2%
Others 2%
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1134059323582287873
> > >
> > > That is the estimated Peterborough constituency result based on the European elections votes cast in the area
> >
> > But the EU election result itself has changed the narrative.
>
> Based on the latest YouGov last week and adjusting from the European election results the forecast for Peterborough on Thursday would be:
>
> Brexit Party 27%
> Labour 27%
> Tories 20%
> LDs 17%
> Greens 6%
>
> So would be neck and neck between the Brexit Party and Labour
If you wish to stake your reputation (or even wager something with actual value) on Labour getting 27% or more and the Tories getting 20% or more, please go ahead...
> > @matt said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1134835463053815808
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > What was the point of posting that? Unless you want to emphasise that Banks is a graceless shit, which I doubt. What is your commentary and value add?
>
> It speaks for itself.
>
>
>
> However as Bristow is a staunch Leaver what it does show is no Tory candidate is immune at the moment from the Brexit Party surge until Brexit is delivered
>
> So the analysis is then that Banks is a graceless shit who wishes to replace the Conservative party with his own virulently unpleasant worldview. Implicitly you seem happy to support that in that you post his “thoughts” without a scintilla of criticism.
Much as I would rather not have to bother to reply to your increasingly tiresome posts I would point out that while over 50% of 2017 Tories who voted in the European Parliament elections voted for the Brexit Party I still voted Tory
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/29/forget-boris-johnson-tory-leader-come-from-centre
LD 28
Lab 16
Grn 9
Con 14
> > @matt said:
> > > @matt said:
> >
> > > https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1134835463053815808
> >
> >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > What was the point of posting that? Unless you want to emphasise that Banks is a graceless shit, which I doubt. What is your commentary and value add?
> >
> > It speaks for itself.
> >
> >
> >
> > However as Bristow is a staunch Leaver what it does show is no Tory candidate is immune at the moment from the Brexit Party surge until Brexit is delivered
> >
> > So the analysis is then that Banks is a graceless shit who wishes to replace the Conservative party with his own virulently unpleasant worldview. Implicitly you seem happy to support that in that you post his “thoughts” without a scintilla of criticism.
>
> Much as I would rather not have to bother to reply to your increasingly tiresome posts I would point out that while over 50% of 2017 Tories who voted in the European Parliament elections voted for the Brexit Party I still voted Tory
>
Yet you continue to post such BXP c**p here?
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1134059323582287873
> > > >
> > > > That is the estimated Peterborough constituency result based on the European elections votes cast in the area
> > >
> > > But the EU election result itself has changed the narrative.
> >
> > Based on the latest YouGov last week and adjusting from the European election results the forecast for Peterborough on Thursday would be:
> >
> > Brexit Party 27%
> > Labour 27%
> > Tories 20%
> > LDs 17%
> > Greens 6%
> >
> > So would be neck and neck between the Brexit Party and Labour
>
> If you wish to stake your reputation (or even wager something with actual value) on Labour getting 27% or more and the Tories getting 20% or more, please go ahead...
I think the Brexit Party will win the by election reasonably comfortably on Thursday, I was just pointing out what impact the new YouGov poll would have in Peterborough in terms of changes from the European elections if correct
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1134059323582287873
> > > > >
> > > > > That is the estimated Peterborough constituency result based on the European elections votes cast in the area
> > > >
> > > > But the EU election result itself has changed the narrative.
> > >
> > > Based on the latest YouGov last week and adjusting from the European election results the forecast for Peterborough on Thursday would be:
> > >
> > > Brexit Party 27%
> > > Labour 27%
> > > Tories 20%
> > > LDs 17%
> > > Greens 6%
> > >
> > > So would be neck and neck between the Brexit Party and Labour
> >
> > If you wish to stake your reputation (or even wager something with actual value) on Labour getting 27% or more and the Tories getting 20% or more, please go ahead...
>
> I think the Brexit Party will win the by election reasonably comfortably on Thursday, I was just pointing out what impact the new YouGov poll would have in Peterborough in terms of changes from the European elections if correct
If you believe it as a prediction, stand by it. If you don’t, please don’t waste our time making us read it.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > > https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1134059323582287873
> > > > > >
> > > > > > That is the estimated Peterborough constituency result based on the European elections votes cast in the area
> > > > >
> > > > > But the EU election result itself has changed the narrative.
> > > >
> > > > Based on the latest YouGov last week and adjusting from the European election results the forecast for Peterborough on Thursday would be:
> > > >
> > > > Brexit Party 27%
> > > > Labour 27%
> > > > Tories 20%
> > > > LDs 17%
> > > > Greens 6%
> > > >
> > > > So would be neck and neck between the Brexit Party and Labour
> > >
> > > If you wish to stake your reputation (or even wager something with actual value) on Labour getting 27% or more and the Tories getting 20% or more, please go ahead...
> >
> > I think the Brexit Party will win the by election reasonably comfortably on Thursday, I was just pointing out what impact the new YouGov poll would have in Peterborough in terms of changes from the European elections if correct
>
> If you believe it as a prediction, stand by it. If you don’t, please don’t waste our time making us read it.
It was based on the YouGov poll changes whether people wish to read it or not is up to them, you can always scroll on rather than engage in a whiny whinge
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @matt said:
> > > > @matt said:
> > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1134835463053815808
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > What was the point of posting that? Unless you want to emphasise that Banks is a graceless shit, which I doubt. What is your commentary and value add?
> > >
> > > It speaks for itself.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > However as Bristow is a staunch Leaver what it does show is no Tory candidate is immune at the moment from the Brexit Party surge until Brexit is delivered
> > >
> > > So the analysis is then that Banks is a graceless shit who wishes to replace the Conservative party with his own virulently unpleasant worldview. Implicitly you seem happy to support that in that you post his “thoughts” without a scintilla of criticism.
> >
> > Much as I would rather not have to bother to reply to your increasingly tiresome posts I would point out that while over 50% of 2017 Tories who voted in the European Parliament elections voted for the Brexit Party I still voted Tory
> >
>
> Yet you continue to post such BXP c**p here?
I point out the obvious that the Tories have zero chance of winning the next general election unless they win back voters lost to the Brexit Party, if you do not like that fact, tough!
> First its 'laughable' now its 'rant'.
>
>
>
> And this is why HS2 has failed to achieve any 'buy-in'.
>
>
>
> Like it or not my suggestion that HS2 needed to get actual construction work done is correct.
>
>
>
> Because without that it is time and money drifting away with nothing to show for it.
>
>
>
> And then some politician comes along and says "we should stop this waste of money and spend it on X".
>
>
>
> Compare with CrossRail - no matter how much incompetence, how much overspending, how many years of delays that involves it will still be completed. And that's because CrossRail got enough actual construction work done for it to become unstoppable.
>
> Well, you said I said something that I hadn't, and argued against that strawman instead of what I said. So yes, I think 'rant' is correct for the ill-informed comments you're making.
>
> And again, actual construction work is being done on HS2: they're classed as enabling works, but I dare you to argue that (say) diverting roads and utilities or digging launching shafts for TBM's isn't 'actual' work.
>
> I'd have more time for your arguments if you actually appeared to be clued up on what you're saying instead of (unusually for you) clueless on this topic.
>
> Again, I must ask: have you read the reports for HS2, or do you just go by headlines?
No I haven't read the reports and nor do I intend to.
And I'll tell you why - I've learnt enough to know that reports tend to provide reasoning for what the writers want to 'prove', whether that is for or against something. I could read every report on the issue and I would still be required to make a judgement on its value and as I don't have to make a judgement on its value I'll save my time for other things.
Now perhaps you'll think that should rule me out from giving thoughts on HS2 but I'm afraid that's how people generally operate and in particular that's how our politicians operate.
Instead I'll just reiterate the things what I've previously said.
Namely that HS2 is vulnerable to being stopped by politicians who need to find a source of money for more immediate or popular purposes.
That the best way for HS2 to guarantee its completion is to get some real construction work ongoing - and for some of that work to be in the North not just in London.
That I prefer infrastructure work to be small scale but regular and relevant to requirements whereas the bigger and more expensive and longer term spending is the more likely it is to go wrong and more likely to approved by politicians looking to big themselves up.
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > @matt said:
>
> > > > @matt said:
>
> > >
>
> > > > https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1134835463053815808
>
>
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > >
>
> > >
>
> > > >
>
> > >
>
> > > >
>
> > >
>
> > > > What was the point of posting that? Unless you want to emphasise that Banks is a graceless shit, which I doubt. What is your commentary and value add?
>
> > >
>
> > > It speaks for itself.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > However as Bristow is a staunch Leaver what it does show is no Tory candidate is immune at the moment from the Brexit Party surge until Brexit is delivered
>
> > >
>
> > > So the analysis is then that Banks is a graceless shit who wishes to replace the Conservative party with his own virulently unpleasant worldview. Implicitly you seem happy to support that in that you post his “thoughts” without a scintilla of criticism.
>
> >
>
> > Much as I would rather not have to bother to reply to your increasingly tiresome posts I would point out that while over 50% of 2017 Tories who voted in the European Parliament elections voted for the Brexit Party I still voted Tory
>
> >
>
>
>
> Yet you continue to post such BXP c**p here?
>
> 54000 posts and counting.
When you actually manage to make 1 post with a tiny fraction of insight you might be able to lecture others, until then I suggest you be a bit less rude
Your ideas on infrastructure are also appear fairly clueless - there comes a stage where 'small scale and regular' ends up being massively expensive short-term penny-pinching - the opposite of what you claim. As an example, much of the M5 was built as two lanes, and soon (I think before the southern end was completed) had to be widened to three lanes.
"Initially the section between present-day M42 and M50 was just two lanes each way. When the rest was built on either side - all with three lanes - this part became a huge bottleneck. The widening works took years, moving on from one section to the next and making the already-chronic congestion noticeably worse. The resulting road is excellent, but it could have been avoided if the M5, like most other motorways at the time, had been built with three lanes each way from the outset - saving massive disruption and an awful lot of money."
https://www.sabre-roads.org.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=31860&sid=524e589be40ea1f430e4313be429832e&start=2060
Or the M25, which feels like it has had constant roadworks and widenings since it opened.
Small scale and regular *can* work in some circumstances- but for many projects it is lunacy. In fact, politicians need congratulating on HS2 for *not* going down that route, biting the bullet and doing it properly.
And what's most depressing is that it will probably do her next-to-no harm.
40% of the population were prepared to vote for Corbyn-led Labour in the last GE, after all.
FWIW I think it most likely that the Brexit Party will get across the finishing line in the Peterborough by-election, but I wouldn't expect the Labour vote to just collapse like a failed soufflé. The Tory vote probably will, but Labour should at least finish second.
> “So we must look out for the unexpected. Look out for a candidate who is good at shaking things up. Look out for someone who makes the established frontrunners appear staid, slow and stale, the way Barack Obama did in 2008 in the US and Emmanuel Macron did in 2017 in France. Look out for one of Rory Stewart, Penny Mordaunt, Matt Hancock or maybe Michael Gove. All seem to have grasped that this election may not, after all, be a race to appease the hard right. It may, instead, be won in the Conservative centre, and with the support of the Tory grassroots too.”
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/29/forget-boris-johnson-tory-leader-come-from-centre
Anecdotal, but spoke to a Tory activist in a NW marginal yesterday. Said the feeling in his local association was to get a candidate who can unite the party and beat Corbyn. Mostly leavers who sat out the Euro campaign but viewed Brexit as something to get out of the way in whatever form they can so that can move forward. More annoyance/fury that May was in negotiations with Corbyn than anything about Brexit itself. Liked Gove, but thought too unpopular to win GE, thought McVey Raab and other no dealers too divisive for party. Boris unreliable. Liked Hunt.
In short, wants to have the election be all about "fighting Marxism" (!) and have a Tory leader who will get the Tory vote of all stripes back onside. Bizarrely to me was pretty confident that the Tories wold win the next election with a majority in a low turnout election.
>
>
> And yet - despite what you claim above - you take reports from the anti- side as if they're fair and even-handed.
>
> Your ideas on infrastructure are also appear fairly clueless - there comes a stage where 'small scale and regular' ends up being massively expensive short-term penny-pinching - the opposite of what you claim. As an example, much of the M5 was built as two lanes, and soon (I think before the southern end was completed) had to be widened to three lanes.
>
> "Initially the section between present-day M42 and M50 was just two lanes each way. When the rest was built on either side - all with three lanes - this part became a huge bottleneck. The widening works took years, moving on from one section to the next and making the already-chronic congestion noticeably worse. The resulting road is excellent, but it could have been avoided if the M5, like most other motorways at the time, had been built with three lanes each way from the outset - saving massive disruption and an awful lot of money."
>
> https://www.sabre-roads.org.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=31860&sid=524e589be40ea1f430e4313be429832e&start=2060
>
> Or the M25, which feels like it has had constant roadworks and widenings since it opened.
>
> Small scale and regular *can* work in some circumstances- but for many projects it is lunacy. In fact, politicians need congratulating on HS2 for *not* going down that route, biting the bullet and doing it properly.
While you take reports from the pro side as if they're fair and even handed.
We all remember things which confirm our thoughts and prejudices, whatever they are. Those that don't are better when the reader is more of a 'blank slate' and open to persuasion.
And accusing people of being clueless, laughable or ranting doesn't persuade
Large scale infrastructure can work but it can be a disaster or years behind schedule, billions over budget or no longer relevant when completed. These risks might apply to anything but the bigger the project the bigger the risk.
As I said before if HS2 is cancelled it will be because they have got no proper construction going yet and were complacent in thinking that the money would always be there. The failure of CrossRail to come in on time and on budget has rather 'queered the pitch' as well I suspect.
What happens we will see but at least we can rest assured it will not be our decision.
I like the way you've shifted your position to no 'proper' construction yet. At least it's an indication you're reading what I'm saying, and some seems to be slipping in. So what is 'proper' construction ?
You've made no indication that you're a blank slate or open to persuasion on HS2. You've admitted to being anti- the project, and that your view is based on bias, not data.
I'm not saying HS2 will definitely be a success. I'd be stupid to say that. It faces many problems and issues going ahead. When it is complete, the future traffic projections might be wrong (although to be fair, they could be wrong in either direction). The costs might spiral (though not as stupidly as some of the claims being made). The politics might kill it before it is built (though hopefully based on better reasoning and information that you've provided in this conversation).
If it dies, then IMO the costs of the Euston work will be a big part of the reason.
But the evidence indicates it will be needed; and the traffic growth of the last thirty years is a very compelling piece of evidence.
Finally: you ranted about something I hadn't said, so I said you ranted. You actually admit to being clueless as you don't read information that goes against your view. And your arguments - based on nothing but bias - are for that reason laughable.
I'll give you one piece of credit, though: you haven't lied and pretended to have read stuff when you hadn't.
>
> As should be clear, I've read both pro- and anti- reports (I can't say I've read all of the latter, but I've read many), and might have forgotten a lot of it. Reading the anti- reports can be a little soul-destroying, especially when they rehash the same (IMO bogus) arguments such as "just rebuild the GC main line!".
>
> I like the way you've shifted your position to no 'proper' construction yet. At least it's an indication you're reading what I'm saying, and some seems to be slipping in. So what is 'proper' construction ?
>
> You've made no indication that you're a blank slate or open to persuasion on HS2. You've admitted to being anti- the project, and that your view is based on bias, not data.
>
> I'm not saying HS2 will definitely be a success. I'd be stupid to say that. It faces many problems and issues going ahead. When it is complete, the future traffic projections might be wrong (although to be fair, they could be wrong in either direction). The costs might spiral (though not as stupidly as some of the claims being made). The politics might kill it before it is built (though hopefully based on better reasoning and information that you've provided in this conversation).
>
> If it dies, then IMO the costs of the Euston work will be a big part of the reason.
>
> But the evidence indicates it will be needed; and the traffic growth of the last thirty years is a very compelling piece of evidence.
>
> Finally: you ranted about something I hadn't said, so I said you ranted. You actually admit to being clueless as you don't read information that goes against your view. And your arguments - based on nothing but bias - are for that reason laughable.
>
> I'll give you one piece of credit, though: you haven't lied and pretended to have read stuff when you hadn't.
Well I'm not going back to see who said what about who.
But I'll say I was a blank slate about HS2 at the start and they failed to convince me and nothing has occurred since to change my mind.
Rather the steadily escalating costs and time delays and the suggestions of mendacity about them has led to a steady loss of my trust in the project.
I work in an area where we try to under-promise and over-deliver and have an instinctive distrust of organisations which operate in the opposite manner.
Perhaps that is unfair to HS2 but when there is continual tolerance towards this practice among large scale infrastructure projects, CrossRail being a clear example, then there is a price to be paid in public trust.
The problem is that the saying applies to small projects as much as it does large ones. In the case of the WCML upgrade, it failed to achieve any of them.
Your attitude to infrastructure projects may be well-intentioned, but it is the usual in the UK, and also leads to massive problems. As I said above (and you appear to have ignored), the many-small-projects approach to infrastructures has been fairly disastrous in the past - see the M5, M25 and (in my area) the A14, all of which were done piecemeal and on the cheap, only to soon be at capacity and require enhancements. In all those cases - and more - I'd argue that the costs of the later works, plus congestion, cost much more than doing it right in the first place.
Your claim that politicians like the large projects is also not really backed up by reality: if it was, we'd have much better infrastructure than we do. In reality, the habit is for them to do penny-pinching small projects that appear to meet requirements, but which are fatally flawed by cost reduction. This is particularly true when they want to see the 'rewards' of the project (i.e. completion) whilst they are still in power.
Short-termism is a curse of western politics, and that goes for infrastructure as much as other policy areas.