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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tory race is crowded but there is value there
When a dozen candidates declare their candidacy for a party leadership, it’s not a sign of strength. Certainly, it’s entirely possible to go too far the other way and allow a flawed but dominant candidate in by default, but an excess of candidates points to a lack of confidence in the leading runners among the second string.
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There are bigger bogeymen out there after all! Meanwhile the dries will be pleased to see that he is supported by the Truss.
> It's fascinating to watch this clash between Islamic values and Birmingham City Council. Newsnight led on it.
The relative concerns about the teaching of sexuality in schools and industrial scale racist child rape which people have is also fascinating.
Similar to May but with presumably some people and leadership skills.
In the absence of a serious Remain candidate, the "not as Leave as Raab" vote seems to be poised between Hunt (who seemed moderate but has made strenuous efforts to appear less so), Gove (whose intellectual depth makes him simply seem less likely to be extreme, though he does have a record of plunging deep in one direction or another) and Boris (because Boris doesn't really do zealotry). By contrast, Raab seems to be cornering most of the hard Leave support so far.
If he gets the job, therefore, our first Muslim PM will be resigning in October for lack of any alternative.
Appointed in July, out in October, having had August off. All seems a bit pointless really.
But I'm not sure it would've made a huge difference as his infantile hiding in Afghanistan doesn't appeared to have harmed him too much. Alas.
Mr. Mark, or that could be a handy excuse. "Of course, *I* voted for Boris, but my colleagues let us down. Oh well. I reluctantly support X out of the final two."
> Amazing to think that one of these cretins, non-entities, liars and rogues will become the next Prime Minister. There is no beginning to the talent the Tories possess.
Have you seen the other side?
One thing commentators seem to have missed is that May's premiership demonstrated one thing. You can endlessly repeat a position e.g. we are leaving on 30th March or we wont be having a GE, and then change your mind and just ignore the abuse.
None of these candidates saying X will not happen with me can be trusted frankly.
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1134040958897729536
Leveraging Johnson's weakness for a job is a smart move for a middle ranking MP who is concerned he'll be overlooked. And for Johnson, it'll give the impression of late momentum.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48482762
That means it is now likely Boris will make the membership vote as he is already now tied top with Hunt for MPs endorsements. So it could actually be mainly a question of whether it is Hunt or Gove who faces Boris in the final two
> Isn't Hunt the consensus, don't split the party candidate ?
>
> Similar to May but with presumably some people and leadership skills.
Anyone who is "similar to May" in any way surely can't be considered any kind of consensus candidate in the present environment. That being said, his current odds seem a bit generous IMHO.
> @Richard_Nabavi noted that the undeclared MPs are disproportionately from the non-headbanger crowd. That seems likely to be good for Messrs Gove, Hunt and Javid.
Javid seems to be targeting the headbangers specifically.
“Yes, I know you disagree. But it is odd that whilst other 'different' groups need protection and get terms about their protection: e.g. Homophobia, misogyny/misandry or anti-Semitism, Muslims seem to be one group who people seem to complain about having such a term - as if they don't want that group to have the same protections as others.”
If I may say so it is only odd because you are making a category error. It’s not a question of giving each group (however defined) protection from abuse or offence. It’s about not discriminating on the basis of characteristics which cannot be changed, which are inherent and which are irrelevant eg sex, sexuality, race. So discriminating or abusing someone because the colour of their skin is darker than yours is wrong. Criticising someone for what they believe is fine. Belief is a choice. Both may be offensive to the person concerned but offence should not be the basis on which something is prevented or legislated against.
Muslims should no more be protected against abuse than Anglicans or Catholics or Seventh Day Adventists or Jehovah’s Witnesses.
The demands for protections for Muslims is because people deliberately assume or conflate being Muslim with being dark-skinned, with being from particular countries - some because they want to attack them (the Tommy Robinson crowd) and some because they don’t want their religion to be criticised. We should not accept this dishonest conflation. I have written on the previous thread how one can deal with those who use one concept to mean another so won’t repeat it here.
What with this, the Tories making fools of our country and Trump on his way, public affairs is utterly depressing.
There is the Derby to bet on instead! And, I believe, a football match somewhere.
Have a nice day all.
> There was a report that Boris was poised to have a bunch of endorsements on Monday and had been telling people to hold back so as to make more impact. Like all statements saying "I will do X very soon" (cf. Farage, who is always about to attrract several MPs), it should be taken with a lump of salt, but worth waiting for Monday before laying Boris heavily.
>
> In the absence of a serious Remain candidate, the "not as Leave as Raab" vote seems to be poised between Hunt (who seemed moderate but has made strenuous efforts to appear less so), Gove (whose intellectual depth makes him simply seem less likely to be extreme, though he does have a record of plunging deep in one direction or another) and Boris (because Boris doesn't really do zealotry). By contrast, Raab seems to be cornering most of the hard Leave support so far.
Yes Raab also laid out a big tax and spending cuts plan yesterday to add to his firm hard Brexit agenda.
https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1134422322667036673?s=20
Raab is currently the main candidate of the hard right in the party but if Baker declares he could challenge him for that position
> > @NickPalmer said:
> > There was a report that Boris was poised to have a bunch of endorsements on Monday and had been telling people to hold back so as to make more impact. Like all statements saying "I will do X very soon" (cf. Farage, who is always about to attrract several MPs), it should be taken with a lump of salt, but worth waiting for Monday before laying Boris heavily.
> >
> > In the absence of a serious Remain candidate, the "not as Leave as Raab" vote seems to be poised between Hunt (who seemed moderate but has made strenuous efforts to appear less so), Gove (whose intellectual depth makes him simply seem less likely to be extreme, though he does have a record of plunging deep in one direction or another) and Boris (because Boris doesn't really do zealotry). By contrast, Raab seems to be cornering most of the hard Leave support so far.
>
> Yes Raab also laid out a big tax and spending cuts plan yesterday to add to his firm hard Brexit agenda.
>
> https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1134422322667036673?s=20
>
> Raab is currently the main candidate of the hard right in the party but if Baker declares he could challenge him for that position
Absolute right wing whacko by sound of things. "Be brave about cuts" - translation: don't give a f**k about the disabled.
> > @NickPalmer said:
> > There was a report that Boris was poised to have a bunch of endorsements on Monday and had been telling people to hold back so as to make more impact. Like all statements saying "I will do X very soon" (cf. Farage, who is always about to attrract several MPs), it should be taken with a lump of salt, but worth waiting for Monday before laying Boris heavily.
> >
> > In the absence of a serious Remain candidate, the "not as Leave as Raab" vote seems to be poised between Hunt (who seemed moderate but has made strenuous efforts to appear less so), Gove (whose intellectual depth makes him simply seem less likely to be extreme, though he does have a record of plunging deep in one direction or another) and Boris (because Boris doesn't really do zealotry). By contrast, Raab seems to be cornering most of the hard Leave support so far.
>
> Yes Raab also laid out a big tax and spending cuts plan yesterday to add to his firm hard Brexit agenda.
>
> https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1134422322667036673?s=20
>
> Raab is currently the main candidate of the hard right in the party but if Baker declares he could challenge him for that position
Has he said which cuts he wants to be 'brave' about ?
Now some cuts - HS2 and Overseas Aid are 'fish in a barrel' stuff.
But is he suggesting ending triple lock pensions for example ?
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > @Richard_Nabavi noted that the undeclared MPs are disproportionately from the non-headbanger crowd. That seems likely to be good for Messrs Gove, Hunt and Javid.
>
> Javid seems to be targeting the headbangers specifically.
I would hardly call Kevin Foster a "headbanger"!!
Except of course he isn't. He's his own utter shit. Which is Peter Foster's point, I think.
> Mr. Borough, I do feel some sympathy for Davis/Raab on the basis they were essentially undercut by May.
That area is where the diaries will be fascinating: to what extent did May killl off a realistic chance of a non-Chequers deal? If it is held she did, then Eden can rest easier, knowing the mantle of Worst PM Ever has been lifted from him.
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1134733318916857856?s=20
DfID?
More likely he would propose a bunch going, realise it's not easy, and not do it, or just merge a few.
Still, we are getting to the point the candidates are differentiating themselves at least. They can work through such ideas when they are in opposition next year
> > @AndyJS said:
> > It's fascinating to watch this clash between Islamic values and Birmingham City Council. Newsnight led on it.
>
> The relative concerns about the teaching of sexuality in schools and industrial scale racist child rape which people have is also fascinating.
Its amazing that they are so concerned and animated about child welfare in this instance, yet not so animated about grooming gangs.
> > @Morris_Dancer said:
> > Mr. Borough, I do feel some sympathy for Davis/Raab on the basis they were essentially undercut by May.
>
> That area is where the diaries will be fascinating: to what extent did May killl off a realistic chance of a non-Chequers deal? If it is held she did, then Eden can rest easier, knowing the mantle of Worst PM Ever has been lifted from him.
The chance of a non-Chequers deal was killed when the Conservatives supported May.
If you let May do the negotiating you get the type of deal May would support.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9196948/boris-rev-up-leadership-campaign/
> Re Matt Hancock -- the Telegraph notes he is backed by Theresa May insiders: Damian Green (May's BFF and former DPM); Andrew Bowie (May's PPS); Seema Kennedy (May's former PPS).
Perhaps that's why Hancock is going for the trendy vicar image.
But I doubt there's much demand for Continuity May.
There might be more demand for 'consensus with competence' which Hunt could aim at.
> Re Matt Hancock -- the Telegraph notes he is backed by Theresa May insiders: Damian Green (May's BFF and former DPM); Andrew Bowie (May's PPS); Seema Kennedy (May's former PPS).
Kiss Of Death.
> a growing number of Tories think the party is “heading to the destined psycho-drama” of a Boris/Gove run-off.
>
> https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9196948/boris-rev-up-leadership-campaign/
In which case, Gove will discover what the members think of his knifing Boris three years ago - and condemning us to the May Interregnum.....
> On Brexit, Sajid Javed has definitively ruled out an extension, a referendum AND a general election.
>
>
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> If he gets the job, therefore, our first Muslim PM will be resigning in October for lack of any alternative.
>
>
>
> Appointed in July, out in October, having had August off. All seems a bit pointless really.
>
> I agree on the actual effect of his position - though he does not have the ability to guarantee no GE, and i think that would happen since he is essentially backing no deal by ruling out everything else - though I dont know if he is personally a Muslim or not.
He has publicly stated that he does not practise any religion. That ought to be the last word on any talk of religious affiliation.
Because if he gets through to the members he wins as he is peddling a simple message and is popular - anyone attempting nuance will be mullered.
> https://twitter.com/KateMaltby/status/1134737272455254017
Its probably wise for a politician to look like he's done a few days hard graft before he suggests that.
Although there is a wider issue here.
Why shouldn't people idle a bit instead of overworking - there's more to the work / life balance than GDP maximisation.
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > @NickPalmer said:
>
> > > There was a report that Boris was poised to have a bunch of endorsements on Monday and had been telling people to hold back so as to make more impact. Like all statements saying "I will do X very soon" (cf. Farage, who is always about to attrract several MPs), it should be taken with a lump of salt, but worth waiting for Monday before laying Boris heavily.
>
> > >
>
> > > In the absence of a serious Remain candidate, the "not as Leave as Raab" vote seems to be poised between Hunt (who seemed moderate but has made strenuous efforts to appear less so), Gove (whose intellectual depth makes him simply seem less likely to be extreme, though he does have a record of plunging deep in one direction or another) and Boris (because Boris doesn't really do zealotry). By contrast, Raab seems to be cornering most of the hard Leave support so far.
>
> >
>
> > Yes Raab also laid out a big tax and spending cuts plan yesterday to add to his firm hard Brexit agenda.
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1134422322667036673
>
>
>
> >
>
> > Raab is currently the main candidate of the hard right in the party but if Baker declares he could challenge him for that position
>
>
>
> Absolute right wing whacko by sound of things. "Be brave about cuts" - translation: don't give a f**k about the disabled.
>
> Cutting HS2 would be an appallingly myopic course of action
You might think so but most people have higher priorities.
HS2 supporters have been too complacent - you should have been demanding the start of construction years ago, in particular construction in the North.
Idk, it's hard for us to really know the competence at ministerial responsibilities candidates might have, and being PM is different to that as well, but not many seem to think Boris is effective at his job. Just that he might win.
Renovation of the palace of Westminster take note. Nah, it can wait another 10 years, it'll be fine.
>
> They havent even started yet!? I feel like it has been underway most of my life. No wonder people are annoyed. You need to start pretty quickly with big stuff.
>
> Renovation of the palace of Westminster take note. Nah, it can wait another 10 years, it'll be fine.
Would you be surprised to discover that HS2 is behind schedule ?
This is low hanging fruit for both the Tory leadership contenders and the Brexit party.
Like the people who say HS2 should end at Old Oak Common, I think the 'start in the north' crowd are just people looking for excuses for the project to be cancelled without overtly saying so.
> Absolutely no consensus for HS2 has been achieved nationally I expect given most people don't actually live in London, or one of the other big cities served. Certainly not up where I am, indeed the Sheffield link is the sort of afterthought that politicians based in the capital whose entire view of Yorkshire consists of Leeds would come up with. I expect sentiment is similar in the rural Tory constituencies in the south.
> This is low hanging fruit for both the Tory leadership contenders and the Brexit party.
The preference for a station in the centre of Sheffield rather than at Meadowhall is another example of that.
I cam across this justification for HS2 recently:
' Building Northern Powerhouse Rail without HS2 would be like constructing the M62 without the M1. '
http://www.cityam.com/277940/debate-time-accept-sunk-cost-and-scrap-hs2
I suspect there would be microscopically few users of the M62 who think its only justification is to link to the M1.
Edit: And this is why the Like button must be removed from vanilla! Who knows what people might end up liking and then one day stand for office.
Luckily it is next to the off topic button, so people have an out.
> In response to @JosiasJessop (fpt):-
>
> “Yes, I know you disagree. But it is odd that whilst other 'different' groups need protection and get terms about their protection: e.g. Homophobia, misogyny/misandry or anti-Semitism, Muslims seem to be one group who people seem to complain about having such a term - as if they don't want that group to have the same protections as others.”
>
> If I may say so it is only odd because you are making a category error. It’s not a question of giving each group (however defined) protection from abuse or offence. It’s about not discriminating on the basis of characteristics which cannot be changed, which are inherent and which are irrelevant eg sex, sexuality, race. So discriminating or abusing someone because the colour of their skin is darker than yours is wrong. Criticising someone for what they believe is fine. Belief is a choice. Both may be offensive to the person concerned but offence should not be the basis on which something is prevented or legislated against.
>
> Muslims should no more be protected against abuse than Anglicans or Catholics or Seventh Day Adventists or Jehovah’s Witnesses.
>
> The demands for protections for Muslims is because people deliberately assume or conflate being Muslim with being dark-skinned, with being from particular countries - some because they want to attack them (the Tommy Robinson crowd) and some because they don’t want their religion to be criticised. We should not accept this dishonest conflation. I have written on the previous thread how one can deal with those who use one concept to mean another so won’t repeat it here.
>
> (Snip).
>
> I believe I responded to this on the previous thread.
You did. I wrote this before I'd seen your reply. Thank you for the debate.
Now for the great outside - birds singing, roses scenting, the gentle hum of bees, sun shining....
All is well in the real world.
For instance, I don't object to the many upgrades going on in the north (and despite what TSE says, vast sums are being spent on the upgrades) just because I, living in Cambridge, don't directly benefit from them.
Likewise, I rarely fly (in fact, I hate it), and yet am in favour of Heathrow expansion - because I can look a little wider than my own direct interests. This is because the indirect benefits should well advantage me.
Not all infrastructure projects are beneficial, and indeed calculating benefits is a rather imprecise and vague 'science'. However the argument that a project should not go ahead just because someone does not directly benefit would stop *all* infrastructure projects in the country.
Including ones you want.
https://twitter.com/magnitsky/status/1134738319571673088
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1134394930640674816
It's a fair point.
> > @not_on_fire said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
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> >
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> > > > @NickPalmer said:
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> >
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> > > > There was a report that Boris was poised to have a bunch of endorsements on Monday and had been telling people to hold back so as to make more impact. Like all statements saying "I will do X very soon" (cf. Farage, who is always about to attrract several MPs), it should be taken with a lump of salt, but worth waiting for Monday before laying Boris heavily.
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > > > In the absence of a serious Remain candidate, the "not as Leave as Raab" vote seems to be poised between Hunt (who seemed moderate but has made strenuous efforts to appear less so), Gove (whose intellectual depth makes him simply seem less likely to be extreme, though he does have a record of plunging deep in one direction or another) and Boris (because Boris doesn't really do zealotry). By contrast, Raab seems to be cornering most of the hard Leave support so far.
>
> >
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> > >
>
> >
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> > > Yes Raab also laid out a big tax and spending cuts plan yesterday to add to his firm hard Brexit agenda.
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> >
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> > >
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> >
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> > > https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1134422322667036673
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> >
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> > >
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> >
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> > > Raab is currently the main candidate of the hard right in the party but if Baker declares he could challenge him for that position
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> >
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> >
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> >
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> > Absolute right wing whacko by sound of things. "Be brave about cuts" - translation: don't give a f**k about the disabled.
>
> >
>
> > Cutting HS2 would be an appallingly myopic course of action
>
>
>
> You might think so but most people have higher priorities.
>
>
>
> HS2 supporters have been too complacent - you should have been demanding the start of construction years ago, in particular construction in the North.
>
> I've mentioned many times why starting in the north was a non-starter, and you just ignore it or give nonsensical one-liners in response.
>
> Like the people who say HS2 should end at Old Oak Common, I think the 'start in the north' crowd are just people looking for excuses for the project to be cancelled without overtly saying so.
Its a non-starter because the northern half isn't deemed to be important by the HS2 cheerleaders.
And I'm overtly saying that HS2 should be cancelled.
If construction had begun years ago, in particular in the North, then there would be much less chance of that now happening.
> Anecdotal, of course, but some of the tories I've met various mps say similar, not fans at all. But at least one is still backing him on the grounds only he can win a GE, and I know others who I dont know if they've met him who are definitely backers.
>
> Idk, it's hard for us to really know the competence at ministerial responsibilities candidates might have, and being PM is different to that as well, but not many seem to think Boris is effective at his job. Just that he might win.
It's probably fair to say that the Foreign Office is particularly ill-suited to a mixture of cheery say-anything charisma and lack of preparation on detail. It's so easy to upset a delicate balance by an ill-judged remark. By contrast, being Mayor was mostly about projecting a positive image, and Boris is fine at that - significantly, the main criticisms were of specific Big Projects that he embraced.
As PM it's hard to predict what he'd embrace (which gives people of all colours hope compared with rivals whose views seem to them fixed and repulsive) and he'd be pretty good at marshalling public support for whatever they were. But it'd be the Biggest Scary Ride Ever, as Trump might say.
There's a very good website showing what's going on in various areas, e.g.
https://hs2inherts.commonplace.is/schemes/proposals/west-hyde-maple-cross-rickmansworth/details
> All is well in the real world.
Not like this board which is crawling with racists.
> Gove has a website: https://gove2019.com/
You just know that hours were spent artfully choosing that cheapo manofthepeople ballpoint rather than some lacquered Montblanc jobbie.
Mrs J, it should be said, is almost allergic to the garden - except when it comes to picking our tomatoes.
Anyway, stuff to do. If anyone has any good tips for the Derby send them my way! My last outing at Sandown was not very profitable so I'm hoping for better today.
> Absolutely no consensus for HS2 has been achieved nationally I expect given most people don't actually live in London, or one of the other big cities served. Certainly not up where I am, indeed the Sheffield link is the sort of afterthought that politicians based in the capital whose entire view of Yorkshire consists of Leeds would come up with. I expect sentiment is similar in the rural Tory constituencies in the south.
>
> This is low hanging fruit for both the Tory leadership contenders and the Brexit party.
>
> The "This piece of infrastructure shouldn't go ahead because I don't benefit from it" is an 'interesting' one.
>
> For instance, I don't object to the many upgrades going on in the north (and despite what TSE says, vast sums are being spent on the upgrades) just because I, living in Cambridge, don't directly benefit from them.
>
> Likewise, I rarely fly (in fact, I hate it), and yet am in favour of Heathrow expansion - because I can look a little wider than my own direct interests. This is because the indirect benefits should well advantage me.
>
> Not all infrastructure projects are beneficial, and indeed calculating benefits is a rather imprecise and vague 'science'. However the argument that a project should not go ahead just because someone does not directly benefit would stop *all* infrastructure projects in the country.
>
> Including ones you want.
As a common justification of HS2 is that it will benefit the North its inevitable that people in the North will point out that HS2 will not benefit them.
It's hard to argue that the M62 isn't part of a wider motorway 'network', and its utilisation and usefulness without that supporting network would be very different. Likewise, ideally HS2 and NPR should be planned as a network designed to get the best out of each other.
All that nurturing and patience needs an outlet and plants, unlike children, don't answer back.
None of them seem to know what to do about an environment where the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party are the real opposition.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LqRbwxF4JJU
> > @williamglenn said:
> > Gove has a website: https://gove2019.com/
>
>
> You just know that hours were spent artfully choosing that cheapo manofthepeople ballpoint rather than some lacquered Montblanc jobbie.
So what does the jacket but no tie imagery supposed to represent ?
But if we had 'started in the north' then you'd just be arguing that it's a bloody stupid thing to be doing, given the capacity constraints are mainly in the south.
Also, if HS2 is cancelled, good luck in getting your own favoured infrastructure improvements though ...