> @HYUFD said: > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > Thanks for the suggestion, I'll do that later on today. I think both lists are already heavily based on ConHome which is why I haven't done a separate list for them. > > > > The totals for the merged list are: > > > > Johnson 30 > > Hunt 30 > > Gove 28 > > Raab 23 > > Javid 17 > > Hancock 13 > > Harper 7 > > Malthouse 6 > > McVey 6 > > Leadsom 4 > > Cleverly 4 > > Stewart 3 > > Boris now joint top with MPs and miles ahead with MPs as the stars start to align for a Boris premiership
Those stars being 15 yellow stars on a blue background...
> @kle4 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > On topic the key as ever remains Labour MPs from Leave seats. > > > > On today's Yougov about 50 of them could lose their seats to the Brexit Party and even more saw the Brexit Party ahead in their local authority areas last week. If the Brexit Party gain Peterborough from Labour next week that could be enough to tip them towards the WA especially if Labpur policy shifts to EUref2 or revoke. > > > > With 286 MPs already having voted for the WA at MV3, 50 Labour MPs added on top of that makes 336 and a majority > > It's touching how you are the only person in the country still holding out for the Labour leavers.
I am not holding out, I would rather enjoy seeing Yvette Cooper and Gloria Del Piero and Ed Miliband and Dennis Skinner lose their seats to the Brexit Party as they would on today's Yougov, if they fail to deliver Brexit.
However a Withdrawal Agreement remains the best solution for Brexit and it will only be delivered with Labour MPs from Leave seats votes that is a fact
> @Mortimer said: > > @Gallowgate said: > > Are the MP votes in the Tory leadership contest secret ballots? If so, this could spring some surprises, no? > > Indeed. It has previously been described as ‘the most sophisticated electorate in the world’* > > *This was before the last few months, I’m not sure the same epithet would be freely > Given now. > >
Sophisticated in manoeuvring the system to get the outcome they want is not the same as sophisticated in making the most informed and prescient choice for the country, sadly.
> Yes that's true, but in reality it is not quite so simple. Most people vote on party lines, candidates are secondary, and over the past few decades the candidates put forward by all parties have generally become younger, they are much more likely to have spent their whole career in politics and a much greater emphasis is placed on local connections to their constituency than used to be the case. MPs spend much of their time on media appearances (which few people see) or constituency work. It is hard to deny that this has led to a weaker cohort of MPs, a dearth of real life experience and the elevation of soundbite media skills over evidence-based policy formation. And the fortress-like security that now surrounds senior politicians cuts them off even more from the lives of their electors (in footage of political meetings from the 1960s or 1970s the lack of security is very obvious, even though this was the height of the IRA bombing campaign). All of these factors have fed the alienation of politicians from the public they represent. <
Only up to a point. I linked to an analysis the other day which showed that the vast majority of MPs had previous non-political careers. But the electorate's not that interested in that - before I was elected I'd had 16 years in senior management in pharma in the constituency where Boots is based, as well as running a successful magazine business, but people who contacted me very rarely wanted to hear about things like that.
I spent most of my time in Parliament on Select Committees (Treasury, Justice, European Affairs, Northern Ireland) and we produced a lot of detailed work, some of it quite innovative. Very little was reported, and frankly neither Government nor media nor voters seemed much interested - the only people who sat up and took notice were specialist NGOs. When did you last see a political memoir where the author says, "I thought X, but when I read the Select Committee rationale for Y I changed my mind"?
So I don't think the problem is that the quality of MPs has declined - rather, we've had an essentially trivial political culture for a long time, driven by the media with both MPs and the general public responding to them. Faced with a genuinely intractable problem (Brexit, Iraq), though, MPs do try to work out for themselves what's best, which ironically makes parties less homogenous and majorities harder to reach.
I am not holding out, I would rather enjoy seeing Yvette Cooper and Gloria Del Piero and Ed Miliband and Dennis Skinner lose their seats to the Brexit Party as they would on today's Yougov if they fail to deliver Brexit.
However a Withdrawal Agreement remains the best solution for Brexit and it will only be delivered with Labour MPs from Leave seats votes that is a fact
The flaw is that those who voted TBP will probably not see the WA as real Brexit, and those Labour MPs lose their seats anyway.
This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History.
> @MarkHopkins said: > I am not holding out, I would rather enjoy seeing Yvette Cooper and Gloria Del Piero and Ed Miliband and Dennis Skinner lose their seats to the Brexit Party as they would on today's Yougov if they fail to deliver Brexit. > > > > However a Withdrawal Agreement remains the best solution for Brexit and it will only be delivered with Labour MPs from Leave seats votes that is a fact > > > The flaw is that those who voted TBP will probably not see the WA as real Brexit, and those Labour MPs lose their seats anyway.
Exactly. First the ERG and now Farage and his disciples have stopped at nothing to make sure no sort of sensible Brexit can now be delivered.
NPexMP was part of Blair's govt that won three times, His party blatantly ignore the Opposition virtually the whole time Labour were in power, it is not so different from what's going on now, the only difference being that Blair had large majorities. No majority is why we are in the mess we are now. If TMay had had a decent majority, the ERG loons could have been ignored and Brexit would have been done and dusted.
> @SquareRoot said: > NPexMP was part of Blair's govt that won three times, His party blatantly ignore the Opposition virtually the whole time Labour were in power, it is not so different from what's going on now, the only difference being that Blair had large majorities. No majority is why we are in the mess we are now. If TMay had had a decent majority, the ERG loons could have been ignored and Brexit would have been done and dusted.
And they promised then failed to deliver a fairer voting system - a broken promise that NP was complicit in.
> @felix said: > I am not a Nick Palmer fan. However, his article is spot on. It illustrates my problem in reconciling my remain preference with the need to respect the result. It is all so very sad.
I agree Nick Palmer's article is spot on. I voted remain but as a country we need to respect the result. The sod Brexit and let's have another referendum, just prolongs the sad agony. Never agreed with referndums as a form of governing ,to binary and divisive.
Great infographic from the Institute of Government showing all Conservative leader voting rounds since 1965. Historically, you don't want to be leading the pack after round 1...
This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History.
This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History.
This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History.
I presumed in the case of science (and medicine) that the cost of teaching was much higher so even if they did repay their fees we had still subsidised the learning.
You have to look at the length of the red line relative to the pink spot showing student numbers. Economics and law look to have the best repayment rates, but Business and Maths/Computing are the best of the more popular subjects.
This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History.
> @IanB2 said: > > @SquareRoot said: > > NPexMP was part of Blair's govt that won three times, His party blatantly ignore the Opposition virtually the whole time Labour were in power, it is not so different from what's going on now, the only difference being that Blair had large majorities. No majority is why we are in the mess we are now. If TMay had had a decent majority, the ERG loons could have been ignored and Brexit would have been done and dusted. > > And they promised then failed to deliver a fairer voting system - a broken promise that NP was complicit in.
True, Blair should have brought PR in with his 179 majority. It would have been seen in a very good light ,after receiving such a victory on 43%.
Completely O/T, but the visible effect of ash dieback around East Sussex this year is quite horrific. Previously there have been quite a lot of trees showing some symptoms, but this year it has suddenly got a lot worse with something like half of the ash trees looking as though they are not just affected but rapidly dying off.
This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History.
> @DavidL said: > This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History. > > > > https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1134103738182963202 > > > > But, but, we are always told what an incredible contribution our creative arts make to our economy. Colour me unshocked.
Not sure the two actually equate.
Yes according to that the Creative Arts cost £1bn in student costs, but on the other hand they contributed over £100bn to the economy in 2017 and employed 3.1 million people. I have a science based degree and have worked all my life in science type jobs but I can't deny that over the last few years the contribution of creative arts to the economy has grown hugely.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > Completely O/T, but the visible effect of ash dieback around East Sussex this year is quite horrific. Previously there have been quite a lot of trees showing some symptoms, but this year it has suddenly got a lot worse with something like half of the ash trees looking as though they are not just affected but rapidly dying off.
I have abut 30 Ash trees on my land ranging from full grown trees over a century old to new saplings we planted in the last couple of years. So far we have seen no sign of Ash dieback here although we know it is in the area. Just hoping we can avoid it somehow.
> @Pulpstar said: > The WA WAS the compromise. It's something Corbyn wasn't looking for at all I'm afraid. It simply does not preclude customs union, regulatory alignment, environment and worker guarantees being introduced as a route out of transition. > > Indeed a CU would 'solve' the backstop so be welcomed by the EU. This could have been created - Corbyn would have got his GE because the DUP would have pulled down the Tories upon the WA passing. > > But his sole focus has been on trying to destroy the Tories. He might well have succeeded. He might just have destroyed Labour too.
> > On topic the key as ever remains Labour MPs from Leave seats.
> >
> > On today's Yougov about 50 of them could lose their seats to the Brexit Party and even more saw the Brexit Party ahead in their local authority areas last week. If the Brexit Party gain Peterborough from Labour next week that could be enough to tip them towards the WA especially if Labpur policy shifts to EUref2 or revoke.
> >
> > With 286 MPs already having voted for the WA at MV3, 50 Labour MPs added on top of that makes 336 and a majority
>
> It's touching how you are the only person in the country still holding out for the Labour leavers.
I am not holding out, I would rather enjoy seeing Yvette Cooper and Gloria Del Piero and Ed Miliband and Dennis Skinner lose their seats to the Brexit Party as they would on today's Yougov, if they fail to deliver Brexit.
However a Withdrawal Agreement remains the best solution for Brexit and it will only be delivered with Labour MPs from Leave seats votes that is a fact
Well yes, it is fact it will only be delivered that way, it is not a fact or even a likely occurence it will happen. You keep falling back on the same trick as the no dealers - 'It will happen because it must happen'.
> @Ploppikins said: > It's catch 22, I was initially attracted to a clean break, bare bones version of brexit. However, after seeing the utter opposition it was getting, thought twice and decided I could live with Labs customs deal or even May's deal. Was prepared to back Lab. > > However, I ended up voting Brexit Party. Why? Because for those who want to overturn a democratic referendum will never stop, no compromise will ever be good enough. You can have revoke or revoke. > > There's no denying the LDs gained a lot of momentum from the locals and in the EU campaign. This was based on a policy of no compromise. I therefore backed the opposite party closest to my views who also won't compromise. > > The two (LD and BP) are feeding off other, like lab and con have for years, it's almost parasitic. > > By the way I am aware it goes both ways and if more brexiters appeared happy to compromise the LDs might not have done so well.
Might I ask you, as a thoughtful no-dealer, where do you think the UK (if it exists, ho ho) will be 1 year, 5 years and 10 years after a no-deal crashout? Will the GFA and NI have blown up? Will that result in worldwide badwill, particularly from the US Congress? Will Scotland have left? Will the London government be stuck negotiating with every trade bloc in the world in bad conditions? Will we have signed an agreement with the EU27 having signed up to all the provisions in the WA? Will Putin have stopped laughing?
> @Mango said: > > @Ploppikins said: > > It's catch 22, I was initially attracted to a clean break, bare bones version of brexit. However, after seeing the utter opposition it was getting, thought twice and decided I could live with Labs customs deal or even May's deal. Was prepared to back Lab. > > > > However, I ended up voting Brexit Party. Why? Because for those who want to overturn a democratic referendum will never stop, no compromise will ever be good enough. You can have revoke or revoke. > > > > There's no denying the LDs gained a lot of momentum from the locals and in the EU campaign. This was based on a policy of no compromise. I therefore backed the opposite party closest to my views who also won't compromise. > > > > The two (LD and BP) are feeding off other, like lab and con have for years, it's almost parasitic. > > > > By the way I am aware it goes both ways and if more brexiters appeared happy to compromise the LDs might not have done so well. > > Might I ask you, as a thoughtful no-dealer, where do you think the UK (if it exists, ho ho) will be 1 year, 5 years and 10 years after a no-deal crashout? Will the GFA and NI have blown up? Will that result in worldwide badwill, particularly from the US Congress? Will Scotland have left? Will the London government be stuck negotiating with every trade bloc in the world in bad conditions? Will we have signed an agreement with the EU27 having signed up to all the provisions in the WA? Will Putin have stopped laughing?
I am not convinced that anyone can be considered thoughtful, with a username like that.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > Completely O/T, but the visible effect of ash dieback around East Sussex this year is quite horrific. Previously there have been quite a lot of trees showing some symptoms, but this year it has suddenly got a lot worse with something like half of the ash trees looking as though they are not just affected but rapidly dying off.
> @DavidL said: > This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History. > > > > https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1134103738182963202 > > > > But, but, we are always told what an incredible contribution our creative arts make to our economy. Colour me unshocked.
This sounds like yet another one of these "no compromise" situations where we have to choose either arts or sciences because one is fundamentally more important than the other.
> @IanB2 said: > > @SquareRoot said: > > NPexMP was part of Blair's govt that won three times, His party blatantly ignore the Opposition virtually the whole time Labour were in power, it is not so different from what's going on now, the only difference being that Blair had large majorities. No majority is why we are in the mess we are now. If TMay had had a decent majority, the ERG loons could have been ignored and Brexit would have been done and dusted. > > And they promised then failed to deliver a fairer voting system - a broken promise that NP was complicit in.
Not really. I've been a supporter of Labour Campaign for Electoral Reform throughout my career, but as a backbencher you can't push legislation through. In the oresent situation, it seems to me essential - the current polling would produce a virtually random result, with any of 4 parties possibly gaining a majority through a freak effect of FPTP.
A PR system would of course producr no overall majority, but that's where the public is at the moment, and it would avoid someone winning and ruling by accident.
> @Ploppikins said: > It's catch 22, I was initially attracted to a clean break, bare bones version of brexit. However, after seeing the utter opposition it was getting, thought twice and decided I could live with Labs customs deal or even May's deal. Was prepared to back Lab. > > However, I ended up voting Brexit Party. Why? Because for those who want to overturn a democratic referendum will never stop, no compromise will ever be good enough. You can have revoke or revoke. > > There's no denying the LDs gained a lot of momentum from the locals and in the EU campaign. This was based on a policy of no compromise. I therefore backed the opposite party closest to my views who also won't compromise. > > The two (LD and BP) are feeding off other, like lab and con have for years, it's almost parasitic. > > By the way I am aware it goes both ways and if more brexiters appeared happy to compromise the LDs might not have done so well.
Yes, that's the kind of reasoning I was thinking of. I think it's a pity.
> @NickPalmer said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @SquareRoot said: > > > NPexMP was part of Blair's govt that won three times, His party blatantly ignore the Opposition virtually the whole time Labour were in power, it is not so different from what's going on now, the only difference being that Blair had large majorities. No majority is why we are in the mess we are now. If TMay had had a decent majority, the ERG loons could have been ignored and Brexit would have been done and dusted. > > > > And they promised then failed to deliver a fairer voting system - a broken promise that NP was complicit in. > > Not really. I've been a supporter of Labour Campaign for Electoral Reform throughout my career, but as a backbencher you can't push legislation through. In the oresent situation, it seems to me essential - the current polling would produce a virtually random result, with any of 4 parties possibly gaining a majority through a freak effect of FPTP. > > A PR system would of course producr no overall majority, but that's where the public is at the moment, and it would avoid someone winning and ruling by accident.
You wanted PR when you might have lost your seat, as Sir Humphrey would have said.. very courageous...
Surely the force that has made compromise impossible is the EU heirarchy and the Irish Government, for insisting on making it impossible for any future UK government to avoid the backstop other than by requiring the UK to remain part of a customs union in perpetuity. They have made no meaningful compromises at any stage of the negotiation and as a result united both Remainers and Leavers against the WA, the latter concluding that the WA with this provision was worse than what we have now. Furthermore the EU insisted on the UK signing up to this within a half finished WA, knowing that by it would give them the whip hand in all the unfinished detail in the negotiations yet to come. It did so because it judged that if the UK failed to sign up to such onerous terms, the most likely outcome would be that the UK would eventually remain in the EU, and I think that judgement will prove to have been correct.
It is quite likely that, had the EU heirarchy instead made its first meaningful compromise of the whole negotiating process, by engaging seriously and in good faith in the UK's efforts to find a way around the backstop, then the rest of the WA incorporating all May's numerous concessions would eventually have found the votes to get through parliament.
> @A_View_From_Cumbria5 said: > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > Completely O/T, but the visible effect of ash dieback around East Sussex this year is quite horrific. Previously there have been quite a lot of trees showing some symptoms, but this year it has suddenly got a lot worse with something like half of the ash trees looking as though they are not just affected but rapidly dying off. > > Same here in South Cumbria
Both East Sussex and South Cumbria do seem to be having very high incidence. Lincolnshire where I am seems to be lightly affected so far but I am sure it will get here eventually.
> @kle4 said: > > @kle4 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > On topic the key as ever remains Labour MPs from Leave seats. > > > > > > > > On today's Yougov about 50 of them could lose their seats to the Brexit Party and even more saw the Brexit Party ahead in their local authority areas last week. If the Brexit Party gain Peterborough from Labour next week that could be enough to tip them towards the WA especially if Labpur policy shifts to EUref2 or revoke. > > > > > > > > With 286 MPs already having voted for the WA at MV3, 50 Labour MPs added on top of that makes 336 and a majority > > > > > > It's touching how you are the only person in the country still holding out for the Labour leavers. > > > > I am not holding out, I would rather enjoy seeing Yvette Cooper and Gloria Del Piero and Ed Miliband and Dennis Skinner lose their seats to the Brexit Party as they would on today's Yougov, if they fail to deliver Brexit. > > > > However a Withdrawal Agreement remains the best solution for Brexit and it will only be delivered with Labour MPs from Leave seats votes that is a fact > > Well yes, it is fact it will only be delivered that way, it is not a fact or even a likely occurence it will happen. You keep falling back on the same trick as the no dealers - 'It will happen because it must happen'.
It may happen because if Labour MPs from Leave seats do not vote for it they will be faced with the nightmare of a Revoke v No Deal choice in October given both Macron and likely Germany will veto further extension. Do the former and lose their seats, fail to vote for revoke and allow No Deal and they lose their party
I really don’t understand this obsession with delivering brexit. Something that was never defined, means something different to everyone who has a point of view, is so far removed from what the leave campaign campaigned on and is clearly going to hurt surely it’s the responsibility of MPs to rescue us from collective stupidity?
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > Completely O/T, but the visible effect of ash dieback around East Sussex this year is quite horrific. Previously there have been quite a lot of trees showing some symptoms, but this year it has suddenly got a lot worse with something like half of the ash trees looking as though they are not just affected but rapidly dying off.
It's catch 22, I was initially attracted to a clean break, bare bones version of brexit. However, after seeing the utter opposition it was getting, thought twice and decided I could live with Labs customs deal or even May's deal. Was prepared to back Lab.
However, I ended up voting Brexit Party. Why? Because for those who want to overturn a democratic referendum will never stop, no compromise will ever be good enough. You can have revoke or revoke.
The two (LD and BP) are feeding off other, like lab and con have for years, it's almost parasitic.
By the way I am aware it goes both ways and if more brexiters appeared happy to compromise the LDs might not have done so well.
The relationship is symbiotic not parasitical as I argued this morning. Both BXP and the LDs have two advantages over Conservative and Labour:
1) Internal Unity - well, perceived unity, that is. Perversely, that may be BXP's problem once the debate moves on.
2) Clarity of position - both BXP and LDs have positions on Brexit/A50 which are unequivocal and clearly understood. As has been known for years, voters do not like parties who are or appear to be disunited.
While both Labour and the Conservatives appear internally split and air those splits so publicly, both the BXP and LDs will prosper.
> @MarkHopkins said: > I am not holding out, I would rather enjoy seeing Yvette Cooper and Gloria Del Piero and Ed Miliband and Dennis Skinner lose their seats to the Brexit Party as they would on today's Yougov if they fail to deliver Brexit. > > > > However a Withdrawal Agreement remains the best solution for Brexit and it will only be delivered with Labour MPs from Leave seats votes that is a fact > > > The flaw is that those who voted TBP will probably not see the WA as real Brexit, and those Labour MPs lose their seats anyway.
The Brexit Party have only surged because we are still in the EU, if we had left the EU by now even with the Withdrawal Agreement then the Brexit Party would be polling not much more than UKIP in 2015 ie around 10% rather than over 20%
> @viewcode said: > This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History. > > Poorer parents?
Isn't it simply that with interest payments on the debt at usourus levels, the debt accumulates at a rate that even the well paid (eg medicine) will never pay off.
It is clear that most of the debt will be written off and paid for by the tax payer. The sooner we deal with the issue, the smaller the problem. In a decade it will be like PFI debt, and a millstone around the neck of a generation, and a generation that will also have the burden of paying for the health, social care and pensions of baby boomers like me.
Surely the force that has made compromise impossible is the EU heirarchy and the Irish Government, for insisting on making it impossible for any future UK government to avoid the backstop other than by requiring the UK to remain part of a customs union in perpetuity. They have made no meaningful compromises at any stage of the negotiation and as a result united both Remainers and Leavers against the WA, the latter concluding that the WA with this provision was worse than what we have now. Furthermore the EU insisted on the UK signing up to this within a half finished WA, knowing that by it would give them the whip hand in all the unfinished detail in the negotiations yet to come. It did so because it judged that if the UK failed to sign up to such onerous terms, the most likely outcome would be that the UK would eventually remain in the EU, and I think that judgement will prove to have been correct.
It is quite likely that, had the EU heirarchy instead made its first meaningful compromise of the whole negotiating process, by engaging seriously and in good faith in the UK's efforts to find a way around the backstop, then the rest of the WA incorporating all May's numerous concessions would eventually have found the votes to get through parliament.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > Completely O/T, but the visible effect of ash dieback around East Sussex this year is quite horrific. Previously there have been quite a lot of trees showing some symptoms, but this year it has suddenly got a lot worse with something like half of the ash trees looking as though they are not just affected but rapidly dying off. > > Brexit.
Yes ,there is an huge effort round here cutting large areas down. There will be a glut of log burning stoves son. North Lancs/South Cumbria.
The Danish election is next Wednesday - a Megafon poll shows the centre-left bloc ahead by 54-46.
The updated Voxmeter poll (in seats) gives the centre-left bloc 98 seats in the new Folketing with the centre -right bloc on 77 (leaving 5 seats to other groups). That would be a comfortable majority for the Social Democrat-led coalition.
> @HYUFD said: > > The Brexit Party have only surged because we are still in the EU, if we had left the EU by now even with the Withdrawal Agreement then the Brexit Party would be polling not much more than UKIP in 2015 ie around 10% rather than over 20% ------
"If the horse hadn't bolted, it would be in the stable..."
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @A_View_From_Cumbria5 said: > > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > > Completely O/T, but the visible effect of ash dieback around East Sussex this year is quite horrific. Previously there have been quite a lot of trees showing some symptoms, but this year it has suddenly got a lot worse with something like half of the ash trees looking as though they are not just affected but rapidly dying off. > > > > Same here in South Cumbria > > Both East Sussex and South Cumbria do seem to be having very high incidence. Lincolnshire where I am seems to be lightly affected so far but I am sure it will get here eventually. > > http://chalaramap.fera.defra.gov.uk/
I was out running today, South Cumbria, and they were widening the road to allow heavy vehicles in to remove the dead wood, my usual route up the fells is closed to allow the heavy machinery to operate, closed for 6 months. Yes it is serious.
> @NickPalmer said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @SquareRoot said: > > > NPexMP was part of Blair's govt that won three times, His party blatantly ignore the Opposition virtually the whole time Labour were in power, it is not so different from what's going on now, the only difference being that Blair had large majorities. No majority is why we are in the mess we are now. If TMay had had a decent majority, the ERG loons could have been ignored and Brexit would have been done and dusted. > > > > And they promised then failed to deliver a fairer voting system - a broken promise that NP was complicit in. > > Not really. I've been a supporter of Labour Campaign for Electoral Reform throughout my career, but as a backbencher you can't push legislation through. In the oresent situation, it seems to me essential - the current polling would produce a virtually random result, with any of 4 parties possibly gaining a majority through a freak effect of FPTP. > > A PR system would of course producr no overall majority, but that's where the public is at the moment, and it would avoid someone winning and ruling by accident.
I must have missed your vocal protests when Labour ditched its promise.
I'm not prepared to compromise on Corbyn any longer. He has to go. He is not fit to be Prime minister. He is a disgrace.
As remarkable as it seems, some unfit person will become PM soon, so really it's a question of it that is Corbyn, or Boris, or some other unfit person.
I really don’t understand this obsession with delivering brexit. Something that was never defined, means something different to everyone who has a point of view, is so far removed from what the leave campaign campaigned on and is clearly going to hurt surely it’s the responsibility of MPs to rescue us from collective stupidity?
That's because under your definition there can be no benefit at all, therefore it is their job not to do it. Most MPs do not want to do it, but clearly they think the situation is more complicated than that or they would have just revoked by now, or made more moves toward revoking. That is the next step because the arguments of most MPs against Brexit are as you put it that it will definitely hurt and be worse than we have now, which blows the arguments for a referendum out of the water, since if they won't do it because it hurts, why risk the public asking for it again.
If it was as straightfoward as you want it to be we would not be in such a mess. Remaining is our best option now, but acting like MPs must go down that route to rescue the public from its stupidity is as similarly blinkered as a no dealer assuming all will be totally fine because they say so. Not as disruptive, but just as blinkered.
I hope it all passes well but Madrid are celebrating the English football fans bringing in financial benefits and excellent promotion for the city. YNWA but regardless enjoy and may the best team win.
> @HYUFD said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > On topic the key as ever remains Labour MPs from Leave seats. > > > > > > > > > > > > On today's Yougov about 50 of them could lose their seats to the Brexit Party and even more saw the Brexit Party ahead in their local authority areas last week. If the Brexit Party gain Peterborough from Labour next week that could be enough to tip them towards the WA especially if Labpur policy shifts to EUref2 or revoke. > > > > > > > > > > > > With 286 MPs already having voted for the WA at MV3, 50 Labour MPs added on top of that makes 336 and a majority > > > > > > > > > > It's touching how you are the only person in the country still holding out for the Labour leavers. > > > > > > > > I am not holding out, I would rather enjoy seeing Yvette Cooper and Gloria Del Piero and Ed Miliband and Dennis Skinner lose their seats to the Brexit Party as they would on today's Yougov, if they fail to deliver Brexit. > > > > > > > > However a Withdrawal Agreement remains the best solution for Brexit and it will only be delivered with Labour MPs from Leave seats votes that is a fact > > > > Well yes, it is fact it will only be delivered that way, it is not a fact or even a likely occurence it will happen. You keep falling back on the same trick as the no dealers - 'It will happen because it must happen'. > > It may happen because if Labour MPs from Leave seats do not vote for it they will be faced with the nightmare of a Revoke v No Deal choice in October given both Macron and likely Germany will veto further extension. Do the former and lose their seats, fail to vote for revoke and allow No Deal and they lose their party
Why would they lose their party ? Do you think the local CLP in a working class leave seat would deselect them ? I got the impression that the frustrations of these MPs were mirrored by the local activists and councillors.
> > > On topic the key as ever remains Labour MPs from Leave seats.
>
> > >
>
> > > On today's Yougov about 50 of them could lose their seats to the Brexit Party and even more saw the Brexit Party ahead in their local authority areas last week. If the Brexit Party gain Peterborough from Labour next week that could be enough to tip them towards the WA especially if Labpur policy shifts to EUref2 or revoke.
>
> > >
>
> > > With 286 MPs already having voted for the WA at MV3, 50 Labour MPs added on top of that makes 336 and a majority
>
> >
>
> > It's touching how you are the only person in the country still holding out for the Labour leavers.
>
>
>
> I am not holding out, I would rather enjoy seeing Yvette Cooper and Gloria Del Piero and Ed Miliband and Dennis Skinner lose their seats to the Brexit Party as they would on today's Yougov, if they fail to deliver Brexit.
>
>
>
> However a Withdrawal Agreement remains the best solution for Brexit and it will only be delivered with Labour MPs from Leave seats votes that is a fact
>
> Well yes, it is fact it will only be delivered that way, it is not a fact or even a likely occurence it will happen. You keep falling back on the same trick as the no dealers - 'It will happen because it must happen'.
It may happen because if Labour MPs from Leave seats do not vote for it they will be faced with the nightmare of a Revoke v No Deal choice in October given both Macron and likely Germany will veto further extension. Do the former and lose their seats, fail to vote for revoke and allow No Deal and they lose their party
They. faced. the. choice. already.
It was quite apparent some time ago it was the WA, or it might well be no deal or no brexit. They still said no.
Your reasoning, unintentionally, is that all those Lab MPs are incredibly thick and did not notice that would happen until the rise of BXP and the LDs polarising us toward revoke or no deal, and the WA being dead because May is now out the door.
I happen to have more respect for their intellect than the idea they could not see 2 feet in front of themselves when rejecting the WA over and over and over.
> @Foxy said: > > @viewcode said: > > This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History. > > > > Poorer parents? > > Isn't it simply that with interest payments on the debt at usourus levels, the debt accumulates at a rate that even the well paid (eg medicine) will never pay off. > > It is clear that most of the debt will be written off and paid for by the tax payer. The sooner we deal with the issue, the smaller the problem. In a decade it will be like PFI debt, and a millstone around the neck of a generation, and a generation that will also have the burden of paying for the health, social care and pensions of baby boomers like me.
I think it may point to how poor some courses are too, and how low they're prepared to set the entrance bar. If you're looking for a job in a technical field with a technical degree and you apply you will get found out immediately, probably at interview, if you're not up to it. If you study English its likely that you won't actually need much of that, and that employers will expect to have to mould you a little bit towards more commercial avenues.
I'm not prepared to compromise on Corbyn any longer. He has to go. He is not fit to be Prime minister. He is a disgrace.
As remarkable as it seems, some unfit person will become PM soon, so really it's a question of it that is Corbyn, or Boris, or some other unfit person.
I really don’t understand this obsession with delivering brexit. Something that was never defined, means something different to everyone who has a point of view, is so far removed from what the leave campaign campaigned on and is clearly going to hurt surely it’s the responsibility of MPs to rescue us from collective stupidity?
That's because under your definition there can be no benefit at all, therefore it is their job not to do it. Most MPs do not want to do it, but clearly they think the situation is more complicated than that or they would have just revoked by now, or made more moves toward revoking. That is the next step because the arguments of most MPs against Brexit are as you put it that it will definitely hurt and be worse than we have now, which blows the arguments for a referendum out of the water, since if they won't do it because it hurts, why risk the public asking for it again.
If it was as straightfoward as you want it to be we would not be in such a mess. Remaining is our best option now, but acting like MPs must go down that route to rescue the public from its stupidity is as similarly blinkered as a no dealer assuming all will be totally fine because they say so. Not as disruptive, but just as blinkered.
Anothernick proposed a way forward this afternoon which I would fully support, please take a look and take a view
Well, I am sure , I am not alone. I have now voted LibDems twice, a bad habit is developing, but in a GE, I would vote for them again. It is worth one 5 year period to kill Brexit, and ensure no Corbyn, and then revert to whatever new sensible party emerges.
It may happen because if Labour MPs from Leave seats do not vote for it they will be faced with the nightmare of a Revoke v No Deal choice in October given both Macron and likely Germany will veto further extension. Do the former and lose their seats, fail to vote for revoke and allow No Deal and they lose their party
What of the Conservatives ?
If it's Revoke vs No Deal how would your MP vote? How would YOU vote if you were an MP?
If the Conservatives back Revoke, BXP will sweep them aside at the next GE. If the Conservatives back No Deal and it's as severe as the CBI and Bank of England think, the Party will own the dislocation and the damage along with BXP and those in Labour who back it.
> @jayfdee said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @A_View_From_Cumbria5 said: > > > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > > > Completely O/T, but the visible effect of ash dieback around East Sussex this year is quite horrific. Previously there have been quite a lot of trees showing some symptoms, but this year it has suddenly got a lot worse with something like half of the ash trees looking as though they are not just affected but rapidly dying off. > > > > > > Same here in South Cumbria > > > > Both East Sussex and South Cumbria do seem to be having very high incidence. Lincolnshire where I am seems to be lightly affected so far but I am sure it will get here eventually. > > > > http://chalaramap.fera.defra.gov.uk/ > > I was out running today, South Cumbria, and they were widening the road to allow heavy vehicles in to remove the dead wood, my usual route up the fells is closed to allow the heavy machinery to operate, closed for 6 months. Yes it is serious.
Are these big, monoculture ash woods? My impression was that you mainly get ash in mixed deciduous woodland, and that the trees are relatively spindly (therefore light) compared to big fat conifers.
Narendra Modi's BJP won 303 seats of 543 in India's parliament on only 37.5% of the vote. Overall, his allies in the National Democratic Alliance pushed the total up to 358 seats.
@DavidL said: I think Nick's point about 'winning' was pertinent. Or perhaps more accurately - wanting to see the other side defeated.
I really don't see this. To me the compromise was that we continued to have a close working relationship with the EU, free trade, relatively free movement of labour, acceptance of the existing rights of our respective citizens, mutual recognition of equivalent regulation, joint enterprises on certain matters where we had common interest, an acceptance that such freedom would mean that the regulatory equivalence would continue going forward etc, etc.
All of this was possible through May's deal and a subsequent FTA. Theoretically, it still is. If we go down such a path it will be for future generations to decide whether we apply to rejoin, which we ought to be able to do relatively easily if we keep ourselves in step with EU regulation, or go more and more our own separate way.
This was the compromise and it has been rejected by extremists on both sides. It is unfortunate and our country will be the weaker and more divided for it.
++++++++++++++++++++++
+1
The key point that is missed by both sides is that getting their way won't make the other side go away. The nationalists will still be there if we stay in the EU, and the internationalists won't change their mind or flee the country if we leave.
You see this in comments such as "oh, if Brexit is put off, it will all have been such a faff, no one will want to raise the subject again". Or, "once we've all settled to the reality of No Deal, no one will be campaigning to join the EU again."
Guys; you're all deluded. And the end result of your delusions will be a weaker, poorer and more divided UK.
Let me point the finger of blame a bit. Mrs May, you idiot. Your speech with red lines was dumb beyond measure, you should have been trying to forge consensus from the start. Baker and Francois: you too. Jeremy Corbyn: your unwillingness to sign up for something that would be good for the country becase it would "f*ck the Tories more" is beyond reproach. I could go on.
> @Ishmael_Z said: > > @jayfdee said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > @A_View_From_Cumbria5 said: > > > > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > > > > Completely O/T, but the visible effect of ash dieback around East Sussex this year is quite horrific. Previously there have been quite a lot of trees showing some symptoms, but this year it has suddenly got a lot worse with something like half of the ash trees looking as though they are not just affected but rapidly dying off. > > > > > > > > Same here in South Cumbria > > > > > > Both East Sussex and South Cumbria do seem to be having very high incidence. Lincolnshire where I am seems to be lightly affected so far but I am sure it will get here eventually. > > > > > > http://chalaramap.fera.defra.gov.uk/ > > > > I was out running today, South Cumbria, and they were widening the road to allow heavy vehicles in to remove the dead wood, my usual route up the fells is closed to allow the heavy machinery to operate, closed for 6 months. Yes it is serious. > > Are these big, monoculture ash woods? My impression was that you mainly get ash in mixed deciduous woodland, and that the trees are relatively spindly (therefore light) compared to big fat conifers.
Think it is just mixed woodland, on a private estate, with public access.
> @Casino_Royale said: > Is it not possible to inoculate trees? > > I’m assuming some seeds and saplings are safely in a lab somewhere for preservation “just in case”.
I seem to recall that some Ash some trees are developing resistance to die back. It was ever thus, except for the dinosaurs who couldn't cope with an asteroid collision.
Isn't that the case for Elm trees who were similarly affected by disease>?
> @jayfdee said: > > @Ishmael_Z said: > > > @jayfdee said: > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > @A_View_From_Cumbria5 said: > > > > > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > > > > > Completely O/T, but the visible effect of ash dieback around East Sussex this year is quite horrific. Previously there have been quite a lot of trees showing some symptoms, but this year it has suddenly got a lot worse with something like half of the ash trees looking as though they are not just affected but rapidly dying off. > > > > > > > > > > Same here in South Cumbria > > > > > > > > Both East Sussex and South Cumbria do seem to be having very high incidence. Lincolnshire where I am seems to be lightly affected so far but I am sure it will get here eventually. > > > > > > > > http://chalaramap.fera.defra.gov.uk/ > > > > > > I was out running today, South Cumbria, and they were widening the road to allow heavy vehicles in to remove the dead wood, my usual route up the fells is closed to allow the heavy machinery to operate, closed for 6 months. Yes it is serious. > > > > Are these big, monoculture ash woods? My impression was that you mainly get ash in mixed deciduous woodland, and that the trees are relatively spindly (therefore light) compared to big fat conifers. > > Think it is just mixed woodland, on a private estate, with public access.
They've been predicting for some time that over 90% of ash trees in GB will die or have to be felled.
I can't be the only one to notice that philosophy is missing from that list. That makes it pretty clear to me that philosophy is the only subject that is clearly and unambiguously positive for the country.
> @Casino_Royale said: > Is it not possible to inoculate trees? > > I’m assuming some seeds and saplings are safely in a lab somewhere for preservation “just in case”.
> This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History.
I can't be the only one to notice that philosophy is missing from that list. That makes it pretty clear to me that philosophy is the only subject that is clearly and unambiguously positive for the country.
> @rcs1000 said: > @DavidL said: > I think Nick's point about 'winning' was pertinent. Or perhaps more accurately - wanting to see the other side defeated. > > I really don't see this. To me the compromise was that we continued to have a close working relationship with the EU, free trade, relatively free movement of labour, acceptance of the existing rights of our respective citizens, mutual recognition of equivalent regulation, joint enterprises on certain matters where we had common interest, an acceptance that such freedom would mean that the regulatory equivalence would continue going forward etc, etc. > > All of this was possible through May's deal and a subsequent FTA. Theoretically, it still is. If we go down such a path it will be for future generations to decide whether we apply to rejoin, which we ought to be able to do relatively easily if we keep ourselves in step with EU regulation, or go more and more our own separate way. > > This was the compromise and it has been rejected by extremists on both sides. It is unfortunate and our country will be the weaker and more divided for it. > > ++++++++++++++++++++++ > > +1 > > The key point that is missed by both sides is that getting their way won't make the other side go away. The nationalists will still be there if we stay in the EU, and the internationalists won't change their mind or flee the country if we leave. > > You see this in comments such as "oh, if Brexit is put off, it will all have been such a faff, no one will want to raise the subject again". Or, "once we've all settled to the reality of No Deal, no one will be campaigning to join the EU again." > > Guys; you're all deluded. And the end result of your delusions will be a weaker, poorer and more divided UK. > > Let me point the finger of blame a bit. Mrs May, you idiot. Your speech with red lines was dumb beyond measure, you should have been trying to forge consensus from the start. Baker and Francois: you too. Jeremy Corbyn: your unwillingness to sign up for something that would be good for the country becase it would "f*ck the Tories more" is beyond reproach. I could go on.
Here's a thought for our times:
The prevalence of social media makes compromise harder.
The more extreme the views the more publicity they will receive.
And its easier to communicate more extreme views than anything which requires discussion and explanation.
> @SquareRoot said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > Is it not possible to inoculate trees? > > > > I’m assuming some seeds and saplings are safely in a lab somewhere for preservation “just in case”. > > I seem to recall that some Ash some trees are developing resistance to die back. It was ever thus, except for the dinosaurs who couldn't cope with an asteroid collision. > > Isn't that the case for Elm trees who were similarly affected by disease>? >
The one thing that might save Ash trees is their diversity. There are thousands of genetic variations, some of which do seem to have resistance to Chalara. The problem for elms was they were effectively clones of each other. If you got a parkland full of elms then just about everyone would be genetically identical. Hence the reason Dutch Elm disease was so destructive. They are now trying to genetically engineer resistance varieties but it is only the last few years they have started to have success.
I'm not prepared to compromise on Corbyn any longer. He has to go. He is not fit to be Prime minister. He is a disgrace.
As remarkable as it seems, some unfit person will become PM soon, so really it's a question of it that is Corbyn, or Boris, or some other unfit person.
I really don’t understand this obsession with delivering brexit. Something that was never defined, means something different to everyone who has a point of view, is so far removed from what the leave campaign campaigned on and is clearly going to hurt surely it’s the responsibility of MPs to rescue us from collective stupidity?
That's because under your definition there can be no benefit at all, therefore it is their job not to do it. Most MPs do not want to do it, but clearly they think the situation is more complicated than that or they would have just revoked by now, or made more moves toward revoking. That is the next step because the arguments of most MPs against Brexit are as you put it that it will definitely hurt and be worse than we have now, which blows the arguments for a referendum out of the water, since if they won't do it because it hurts, why risk the public asking for it again.
If it was as straightfoward as you want it to be we would not be in such a mess. Remaining is our best option now, but acting like MPs must go down that route to rescue the public from its stupidity is as similarly blinkered as a no dealer assuming all will be totally fine because they say so. Not as disruptive, but just as blinkered.
Anothernick proposed a way forward this afternoon which I would fully support, please take a look and take a view
I shall, but a way forward was not the point, the point was acting like it is all so simple as 'Brexit awful MPs must stop' is optimistic in the extreme.
> @kle4 said: > > They. faced. the. choice. already. > > It was quite apparent some time ago it was the WA, or it might well be no deal or no brexit. They still said no. > > Your reasoning, unintentionally, is that all those Lab MPs are incredibly thick and did not notice that would happen until the rise of BXP and the LDs polarising us toward revoke or no deal, and the WA being dead because May is now out the door. > > I happen to have more respect for their intellect than the idea they could not see 2 feet in front of themselves when rejecting the WA over and over and over.
Actually I think many of our MPs are incredibly thick or incredibly complacent or incredibly addicted to their posturing and scheming games.
> @rcs1000 said: > > The key point that is missed by both sides is that getting their way won't make the other side go away. The nationalists will still be there if we stay in the EU, and the internationalists won't change their mind or flee the country if we leave. > ----------
The solution is to break up the UK. English nationalists will get a state called England again, and by turning Europe into the glue that binds the former nations of the UK, it will allow us to have a healthier and more constructive attitude to European integration.
Your question - are we sure we want a Government that ignores half the population? - is incorrect. As John Curtice points out, roughly 40% of voters want to leave, 40% to remain and 20% are persuadable. The referendum was largely the 80% and some of the 20% choosing sides. The 40% remain are largely those who do well from the EU and the status quo, the 40% leave are largely those who have not. We know where we are on that scale -we are irrelevant. It's who will convince the 20% to go out and vote that matters.
> @nichomar said: > > @rottenborough said: > > > This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History. > > > > > > https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1134103738182963202 > > > > > > I can't be the only one to notice that philosophy is missing from that list. That makes it pretty clear to me that philosophy is the only subject that is clearly and unambiguously positive for the country. > > Combined with politics and economics?
Surely the force that has made compromise impossible is the EU heirarchy and the Irish Government, for insisting on making it impossible for any future UK government to avoid the backstop other than by requiring the UK to remain part of a customs union in perpetuity. They have made no meaningful compromises at any stage of the negotiation and as a result united both Remainers and Leavers against the WA, the latter concluding that the WA with this provision was worse than what we have now. Furthermore the EU insisted on the UK signing up to this within a half finished WA, knowing that by it would give them the whip hand in all the unfinished detail in the negotiations yet to come. It did so because it judged that if the UK failed to sign up to such onerous terms, the most likely outcome would be that the UK would eventually remain in the EU, and I think that judgement will prove to have been correct.
It is quite likely that, had the EU heirarchy instead made its first meaningful compromise of the whole negotiating process, by engaging seriously and in good faith in the UK's efforts to find a way around the backstop, then the rest of the WA incorporating all May's numerous concessions would eventually have found the votes to get through parliament.
+++++++++++++++++++++
The mistake you (and a lot of other No Dealers) make is to think that the EU want us in the backstop. The reality is the backstop is at least as uncomfortable to the EU as to us.
It leaves us in a customs union with they EU, with no barriers to the flow of (compliant*) goods between the two.
But it also involves no Freedom of Movement or fees. From a purely theoretical perspective, it would allow to us (for example) remove all worker and environmental protection, and use this to get our costs down.
Given the EU extracts fees from other countries in a similar position, and requires bodies to make sure that neither side engages in a race to the bottom as far as regulation goes, this is not a state they want to be in.
Furthermore, the backstop is only applicable in the event that: (a) we cannot agree an FTA and (b) no technical solution like the US/Canada system for the preclearance of trucks is implemented**
If the EU is not sincerely working towards either of these, then we are free to go to international arbitration***.
So what are we scared of? If the EU is not sincere in wanting an FTA or a technical solution, we have a mechanism for departure. If they are sincere, then it's not an issue.
* Compliant means meets EU standards for voltage, radio emissions, etc. ** Yes, Canada and the US have a system for preclearing shipments. *** The UK happily signs up to international arbitration all the time
> It was quite apparent some time ago it was the WA, or it might well be no deal or no brexit. They still said no.
>
> Your reasoning, unintentionally, is that all those Lab MPs are incredibly thick and did not notice that would happen until the rise of BXP and the LDs polarising us toward revoke or no deal, and the WA being dead because May is now out the door.
>
> I happen to have more respect for their intellect than the idea they could not see 2 feet in front of themselves when rejecting the WA over and over and over.
Actually I think many of our MPs are incredibly thick or incredibly complacent or incredibly addicted to their posturing and scheming games.
I think some are incredibly thick, but we're long past the point where even the thick ones will grasped what the various options are by now, so I assume a bit more on the posturing and scheming side - which means I respect their intellect a bit more, but look down on them more as well, since it means their pretending various options are viable, or just saying no to everything, is a considered choice, not done just because they are thick.
It would be more comforting, in a way, if they were just thick - there would be the hope enough of them could be brought round to some level of understanding. Because they are not all that thick, there is no hope of that.
> @SquareRoot said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > Is it not possible to inoculate trees? > > > > I’m assuming some seeds and saplings are safely in a lab somewhere for preservation “just in case”. > > I seem to recall that some Ash some trees are developing resistance to die back. It was ever thus, except for the dinosaurs who couldn't cope with an asteroid collision. > > Isn't that the case for Elm trees who were similarly affected by disease>? >
The world is full of small, feathered dinosaurs, referred to by no-fun killjoys as "descended from dinosaurs."
> @rcs1000 said: > @Wulfrun_Phil said: > On thread. > > Surely the force that has made compromise impossible is the EU heirarchy and the Irish Government, for insisting on making it impossible for any future UK government to avoid the backstop other than by requiring the UK to remain part of a customs union in perpetuity. They have made no meaningful compromises at any stage of the negotiation and as a result united both Remainers and Leavers against the WA, the latter concluding that the WA with this provision was worse than what we have now. Furthermore the EU insisted on the UK signing up to this within a half finished... > > It is quite likely that, had the EU heirarchy instead made its first meaningful compromise of the whole negotiating process, by engaging seriously and in good faith in the UK's efforts to find a way around the backstop, then the rest of the WA incorporating all May's numerous concessions would eventually have found the votes to get through parliament. > > +++++++++++++++++++++ > > The mistake you (and a lot of other No Dealers) make is to think that the EU want us in the backstop. The reality is the backstop is at least as uncomfortable to the EU as to us. > > It leaves us in a customs union with they EU, with no barriers to the flow of (compliant*) goods between the two. > > But it also involves no Freedom of Movement or fees. From a purely theoretical perspective, it would allow to us (for example) remove all worker and environmental protection, and use this to get our costs down. > > Given the EU extracts fees from other countries in a similar position, and requires bodies to make sure that neither side engages in a race to the bottom as far as regulation goes, this is not a state they want to be in. > > Furthermore, the backstop is only applicable in the event that: > (a) we cannot agree an FTA and > (b) no technical solution like the US/Canada system for the preclearance of trucks is implemented** > > If the EU is not sincerely working towards either of these, then we are free to go to international arbitration***. > > So what are we scared of? If the EU is not sincere in wanting an FTA or a technical solution, we have a mechanism for departure. If they are sincere, then it's not an issue. > > * Compliant means meets EU standards for voltage, radio emissions, etc. > ** Yes, Canada and the US have a system for preclearing shipments. > *** The UK happily signs up to international arbitration all the time
Indeed. I’ve been arguing similarly for months; I assumed people Finally understanding this would lead to the deal passing.
But it didn’t because:
A) the opposition was entrenched and consists of no compromise no dealers and no brexiters
the salesmanship of the deal was SO APPALLINGLY BAD
So the question I ponder is this; would good salesmanship get the dal over the line?
> > This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History.
> I can't be the only one to notice that philosophy is missing from that list. That makes it pretty clear to me that philosophy is the only subject that is clearly and unambiguously positive for the country.
>
> Combined with politics and economics?
Too right!
I’m afraid nothing beats chemical engineering and management economics for being positive to the country! The space the school occupied now replaced by ......computer gaming!
So the question I ponder is this; would good salesmanship get the deal over the line?
It might have if from the start. It's hard to see how it will now, since apart from Rory Stewart which Tory is advocating trying it again, and are they really going to bring it back after failing to get any changes, or tweaking the PD, and they can sell that well enough to work?
> @rcs1000 said: > > So what are we scared of? If the EU is not sincere in wanting an FTA or a technical solution, we have a mechanism for departure. If they are sincere, then it's not an issue. > ---------
"Alternative arrangements" does not mean the EU is obliged to look for a technical solution. Indeed the withdrawal agreement precludes any infrastructure or associated checks.
> @williamglenn said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > The key point that is missed by both sides is that getting their way won't make the other side go away. The nationalists will still be there if we stay in the EU, and the internationalists won't change their mind or flee the country if we leave. > > > ---------- > > The solution is to break up the UK. English nationalists will get a state called England again, and by turning Europe into the glue that binds the former nations of the UK, it will allow us to have a healthier and more constructive attitude to European integration.
England voted Leave as did Wales and polling is clear English voters would rather break up the UK than stay in the EU, not break up the UK to rejoin it
> @williamglenn said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > So what are we scared of? If the EU is not sincere in wanting an FTA or a technical solution, we have a mechanism for departure. If they are sincere, then it's not an issue. > > > --------- > > "Alternative arrangements" does not mean the EU is obliged to look for a technical solution. Indeed the withdrawal agreement precludes any infrastructure or associated checks.
Yes, I know you believe that a system where checks happen away from the border is impossible.
> @PaulM said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > On topic the key as ever remains Labour MPs from Leave seats. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On today's Yougov about 50 of them could lose their seats to the Brexit Party and even more saw the Brexit Party ahead in their local authority areas last week. If the Brexit Party gain Peterborough from Labour next week that could be enough to tip them towards the WA especially if Labpur policy shifts to EUref2 or revoke. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > With 286 MPs already having voted for the WA at MV3, 50 Labour MPs added on top of that makes 336 and a majority > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It's touching how you are the only person in the country still holding out for the Labour leavers. > > > > > > > > > > > > I am not holding out, I would rather enjoy seeing Yvette Cooper and Gloria Del Piero and Ed Miliband and Dennis Skinner lose their seats to the Brexit Party as they would on today's Yougov, if they fail to deliver Brexit. > > > > > > > > > > > > However a Withdrawal Agreement remains the best solution for Brexit and it will only be delivered with Labour MPs from Leave seats votes that is a fact > > > > > > Well yes, it is fact it will only be delivered that way, it is not a fact or even a likely occurence it will happen. You keep falling back on the same trick as the no dealers - 'It will happen because it must happen'. > > > > It may happen because if Labour MPs from Leave seats do not vote for it they will be faced with the nightmare of a Revoke v No Deal choice in October given both Macron and likely Germany will veto further extension. Do the former and lose their seats, fail to vote for revoke and allow No Deal and they lose their party > > Why would they lose their party ? Do you think the local CLP in a working class leave seat would deselect them ? I got the impression that the frustrations of these MPs were mirrored by the local activists and councillors.
If they vote for No Deal by default by refusing to back Revoke over No Deal I suspect Remainers in their local party would start the process of deselecting them
> @rcs1000 said: > > Yes, I know you believe that a system where checks happen away from the border is impossible. > > It is a view share by, ummm, your mum? -------------
Why 'alternative arrangements' aren't an alternative:
"Which leads to a sensitive discussion as to how far away from the actual frontier checks need to be in order to not be understood as border checks. Five miles? Ten miles? Belfast? The Port of Larne?"
> @kle4 said: > > @kle4 said: > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > On topic the key as ever remains Labour MPs from Leave seats. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On today's Yougov about 50 of them could lose their seats to the Brexit Party and even more saw the Brexit Party ahead in their local authority areas last week. If the Brexit Party gain Peterborough from Labour next week that could be enough to tip them towards the WA especially if Labpur policy shifts to EUref2 or revoke. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > With 286 MPs already having voted for the WA at MV3, 50 Labour MPs added on top of that makes 336 and a majority > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It's touching how you are the only person in the country still holding out for the Labour leavers. > > > > > > > > > > > > I am not holding out, I would rather enjoy seeing Yvette Cooper and Gloria Del Piero and Ed Miliband and Dennis Skinner lose their seats to the Brexit Party as they would on today's Yougov, if they fail to deliver Brexit. > > > > > > > > > > > > However a Withdrawal Agreement remains the best solution for Brexit and it will only be delivered with Labour MPs from Leave seats votes that is a fact > > > > > > Well yes, it is fact it will only be delivered that way, it is not a fact or even a likely occurence it will happen. You keep falling back on the same trick as the no dealers - 'It will happen because it must happen'. > > > > It may happen because if Labour MPs arty > > They. faced. the. choice. already. > > It was quite apparent some time ago it was the WA, or it might well be no deal or no brexit. They still said no. > > Your reasoning, unintentionally, is that all those Lab MPs are incredibly thick and did not notice that would happen until the rise of BXP and the LDs polarising us toward revoke or no deal, and the WA being dead because May is now out the door. > > I happen to have more respect for their intellect than the idea they could not see 2 feet in front of themselves when rejecting the WA over and over and over.
Far beyond me to comment on the intellect of northern and Midlands Labour MPs (though fair to say few of them are Einstein with a few sharp exceptions like Flint and Snell who could see the looming disaster and voted for the Deal) but it is starting to dawn on them that the metropolitan elite of their party will shaft them and their seats rather than allow any form of Brexit.
> @nichomar said: > > @nichomar said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1134103738182963202 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I can't be the only one to notice that philosophy is missing from that list. That makes it pretty clear to me that philosophy is the only subject that is clearly and unambiguously positive for the country. > > > > > > Combined with politics and economics? > > > > Too right! > > I’m afraid nothing beats chemical engineering and management economics for being positive to the country! The space the school occupied now replaced by ......computer gaming!
Happy to agree with you regarding Chem Eng. Not sure about polluting the degree with management economics though!
> @HYUFD said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > > > On topic the key as ever remains Labour MPs from Leave seats. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > &tip them towards the WA especially if Labpur policy shifts to EUref2 or revoke. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > With 286 MPs already having voted for the WA at MV3, 50 Labour MPs added on top of that makes 336 and a majority > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It's touching how you are the only person in the country still holding out for the Labour leavers. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I am not holding out, I would rather enjoy seeing Yvette Cooper and Gloria Del Piero and Ed Miliband and Dennis Skinner lose their seats to the Brexit Party as they would on today's Yougov, if they fail to deliver Brexit. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > However a Withdrawal Agreement remains the best solution for Brexit and it will only be delivered with Labour MPs from Leave seats votes that is a fact > > > > > > > > > > Well yes, it is fact it will only be delivered that way, it is not a fact or even a likely occurence it will happen. You keep falling back on the same trick as the no dealers - 'It will happen because it must happen'. > > > > > > > > It may happen because if Labour MPs arty > > > > They. faced. the. choice. already. > > > > It was quite apparent some time ago it was the WA, or it might well be no deal or no brexit. They still said no. > > > > Your reasoning, unintentionally, is that all those Lab MPs are incredibly thick and did not notice that would happen until the rise of BXP and the LDs polarising us toward revoke or no deal, and the WA being dead because May is now out the door. > > > > I happen to have more respect for their intellect than the idea they could not see 2 feet in front of themselves when rejecting the WA over and over and over. > > Far beyond me to comment on the intellect of northern and Midlands Labour MPs (though fair to say few of them are Einstein with a few sharp exceptions like Flint and Snell who could see the looming disaster and voted for the Deal) but it is starting to dawn on them that the metropolitan elite of their party will shaft them and their seats rather than allow any form of Brexit. > > Exhibit A: Lisa Nandy > > https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1133295790120734721?s=20 > > https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1132772199004332032?s=20
They thought that by voting down the WA, they could (a) do immense harm to the Conservatives and (b) remain unscathed.
Comments
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > Thanks for the suggestion, I'll do that later on today. I think both lists are already heavily based on ConHome which is why I haven't done a separate list for them.
> >
> > The totals for the merged list are:
> >
> > Johnson 30
> > Hunt 30
> > Gove 28
> > Raab 23
> > Javid 17
> > Hancock 13
> > Harper 7
> > Malthouse 6
> > McVey 6
> > Leadsom 4
> > Cleverly 4
> > Stewart 3
>
> Boris now joint top with MPs and miles ahead with MPs as the stars start to align for a Boris premiership
Those stars being 15 yellow stars on a blue background...
> Are the MP votes in the Tory leadership contest secret ballots? If so, this could spring some surprises, no?
Indeed. It has previously been described as ‘the most sophisticated electorate in the world’*
*This was before the last few months, I’m not sure the same epithet would be freely
Given now.
> > @kinabalu said:
> > Gove IS the Remainer's Leaver. That's very good.
> >
> > Begs the obvious question of the opposite.
> >
> > Caroline Flint?
>
> Stephen Kinnock.
Boles, Flint, Kinnock, Powell have at least all tried to be constructive about brexit.
I find an affinity with them, I think I'm probably leavier than an average remainer myself tbh.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > On topic the key as ever remains Labour MPs from Leave seats.
> >
> > On today's Yougov about 50 of them could lose their seats to the Brexit Party and even more saw the Brexit Party ahead in their local authority areas last week. If the Brexit Party gain Peterborough from Labour next week that could be enough to tip them towards the WA especially if Labpur policy shifts to EUref2 or revoke.
> >
> > With 286 MPs already having voted for the WA at MV3, 50 Labour MPs added on top of that makes 336 and a majority
>
> It's touching how you are the only person in the country still holding out for the Labour leavers.
I am not holding out, I would rather enjoy seeing Yvette Cooper and Gloria Del Piero and Ed Miliband and Dennis Skinner lose their seats to the Brexit Party as they would on today's Yougov, if they fail to deliver Brexit.
However a Withdrawal Agreement remains the best solution for Brexit and it will only be delivered with Labour MPs from Leave seats votes that is a fact
> > @Chris said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1134483917002674178
> > >
> > > Brad Pitt owns the film rights.
> >
> > Just wait till the "Goofy Rory" soft toy range hits the shops next week.
>
> My dog looks forward to getting one. Does it squeak?
>
I think it just roars.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > Are the MP votes in the Tory leadership contest secret ballots? If so, this could spring some surprises, no?
>
> Indeed. It has previously been described as ‘the most sophisticated electorate in the world’*
>
> *This was before the last few months, I’m not sure the same epithet would be freely
> Given now.
>
>
Sophisticated in manoeuvring the system to get the outcome they want is not the same as sophisticated in making the most informed and prescient choice for the country, sadly.
> Yes that's true, but in reality it is not quite so simple. Most people vote on party lines, candidates are secondary, and over the past few decades the candidates put forward by all parties have generally become younger, they are much more likely to have spent their whole career in politics and a much greater emphasis is placed on local connections to their constituency than used to be the case. MPs spend much of their time on media appearances (which few people see) or constituency work. It is hard to deny that this has led to a weaker cohort of MPs, a dearth of real life experience and the elevation of soundbite media skills over evidence-based policy formation. And the fortress-like security that now surrounds senior politicians cuts them off even more from the lives of their electors (in footage of political meetings from the 1960s or 1970s the lack of security is very obvious, even though this was the height of the IRA bombing campaign). All of these factors have fed the alienation of politicians from the public they represent. <
Only up to a point. I linked to an analysis the other day which showed that the vast majority of MPs had previous non-political careers. But the electorate's not that interested in that - before I was elected I'd had 16 years in senior management in pharma in the constituency where Boots is based, as well as running a successful magazine business, but people who contacted me very rarely wanted to hear about things like that.
I spent most of my time in Parliament on Select Committees (Treasury, Justice, European Affairs, Northern Ireland) and we produced a lot of detailed work, some of it quite innovative. Very little was reported, and frankly neither Government nor media nor voters seemed much interested - the only people who sat up and took notice were specialist NGOs. When did you last see a political memoir where the author says, "I thought X, but when I read the Select Committee rationale for Y I changed my mind"?
So I don't think the problem is that the quality of MPs has declined - rather, we've had an essentially trivial political culture for a long time, driven by the media with both MPs and the general public responding to them. Faced with a genuinely intractable problem (Brexit, Iraq), though, MPs do try to work out for themselves what's best, which ironically makes parties less homogenous and majorities harder to reach.
The flaw is that those who voted TBP will probably not see the WA as real Brexit, and those Labour MPs lose their seats anyway.
> Kasich says there's 'no path' to the White House for him in 2020
>
> https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/31/john-kasich-2020-elections-1348649
Blocked by orange man
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1134103738182963202
> I am not holding out, I would rather enjoy seeing Yvette Cooper and Gloria Del Piero and Ed Miliband and Dennis Skinner lose their seats to the Brexit Party as they would on today's Yougov if they fail to deliver Brexit.
>
>
>
> However a Withdrawal Agreement remains the best solution for Brexit and it will only be delivered with Labour MPs from Leave seats votes that is a fact
>
>
> The flaw is that those who voted TBP will probably not see the WA as real Brexit, and those Labour MPs lose their seats anyway.
Exactly. First the ERG and now Farage and his disciples have stopped at nothing to make sure no sort of sensible Brexit can now be delivered.
> NPexMP was part of Blair's govt that won three times, His party blatantly ignore the Opposition virtually the whole time Labour were in power, it is not so different from what's going on now, the only difference being that Blair had large majorities. No majority is why we are in the mess we are now. If TMay had had a decent majority, the ERG loons could have been ignored and Brexit would have been done and dusted.
And they promised then failed to deliver a fairer voting system - a broken promise that NP was complicit in.
> I am not a Nick Palmer fan. However, his article is spot on. It illustrates my problem in reconciling my remain preference with the need to respect the result. It is all so very sad.
I agree Nick Palmer's article is spot on.
I voted remain but as a country we need to respect the result.
The sod Brexit and let's have another referendum, just prolongs the sad agony.
Never agreed with referndums as a form of governing ,to binary and divisive.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/chart-images/Conservatives since 1965 - November 2018 version.png
> This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History.
>
> https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1134103738182963202
Some of us are slackers...
> > @rottenborough said:
> > This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1134103738182963202
>
> Some of us are slackers...
You have to look at the length of the red line relative to the pink spot showing student numbers. Economics and law look to have the best repayment rates, but Business and Maths/Computing are the best of the more popular subjects.
> Great infographic from the Institute of Government showing all Conservative leader voting rounds since 1965. Historically, you don't want to be leading the pack after round 1...
>
> https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/chart-images/Conservatives since 1965 - November 2018 version.png
We could be in a different world if Portillo had got 1% more on that final ballot.
The reason is that there are more of them.
The detailed paper on the econometrics, if you like your mathematical economics:
Https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/wps/WP201904.pdf
>
> But, but, we are always told what an incredible contribution our creative arts make to our economy. Colour me unshocked.
Those degrees in Lib Dem Bar Charts are finally paying off.
> > @bookseller said:
> > Great infographic from the Institute of Government showing all Conservative leader voting rounds since 1965. Historically, you don't want to be leading the pack after round 1...
> >
> > https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/chart-images/Conservatives since 1965 - November 2018 version.png
>
> We could be in a different world if Portillo had got 1% more on that final ballot.
Perhaps he would have spent more on railways...
> > @SquareRoot said:
> > NPexMP was part of Blair's govt that won three times, His party blatantly ignore the Opposition virtually the whole time Labour were in power, it is not so different from what's going on now, the only difference being that Blair had large majorities. No majority is why we are in the mess we are now. If TMay had had a decent majority, the ERG loons could have been ignored and Brexit would have been done and dusted.
>
> And they promised then failed to deliver a fairer voting system - a broken promise that NP was complicit in.
True, Blair should have brought PR in with his 179 majority.
It would have been seen in a very good light ,after receiving such a victory on 43%.
> This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History.
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1134103738182963202
>
>
>
> But, but, we are always told what an incredible contribution our creative arts make to our economy. Colour me unshocked.
Not sure the two actually equate.
Yes according to that the Creative Arts cost £1bn in student costs, but on the other hand they contributed over £100bn to the economy in 2017 and employed 3.1 million people. I have a science based degree and have worked all my life in science type jobs but I can't deny that over the last few years the contribution of creative arts to the economy has grown hugely.
> Completely O/T, but the visible effect of ash dieback around East Sussex this year is quite horrific. Previously there have been quite a lot of trees showing some symptoms, but this year it has suddenly got a lot worse with something like half of the ash trees looking as though they are not just affected but rapidly dying off.
I have abut 30 Ash trees on my land ranging from full grown trees over a century old to new saplings we planted in the last couple of years. So far we have seen no sign of Ash dieback here although we know it is in the area. Just hoping we can avoid it somehow.
> The WA WAS the compromise. It's something Corbyn wasn't looking for at all I'm afraid. It simply does not preclude customs union, regulatory alignment, environment and worker guarantees being introduced as a route out of transition.
>
> Indeed a CU would 'solve' the backstop so be welcomed by the EU. This could have been created - Corbyn would have got his GE because the DUP would have pulled down the Tories upon the WA passing.
>
> But his sole focus has been on trying to destroy the Tories. He might well have succeeded. He might just have destroyed Labour too.
Labour have dug two graves.
> It's catch 22, I was initially attracted to a clean break, bare bones version of brexit. However, after seeing the utter opposition it was getting, thought twice and decided I could live with Labs customs deal or even May's deal. Was prepared to back Lab.
>
> However, I ended up voting Brexit Party. Why? Because for those who want to overturn a democratic referendum will never stop, no compromise will ever be good enough. You can have revoke or revoke.
>
> There's no denying the LDs gained a lot of momentum from the locals and in the EU campaign. This was based on a policy of no compromise. I therefore backed the opposite party closest to my views who also won't compromise.
>
> The two (LD and BP) are feeding off other, like lab and con have for years, it's almost parasitic.
>
> By the way I am aware it goes both ways and if more brexiters appeared happy to compromise the LDs might not have done so well.
Might I ask you, as a thoughtful no-dealer, where do you think the UK (if it exists, ho ho) will be 1 year, 5 years and 10 years after a no-deal crashout? Will the GFA and NI have blown up? Will that result in worldwide badwill, particularly from the US Congress? Will Scotland have left? Will the London government be stuck negotiating with every trade bloc in the world in bad conditions? Will we have signed an agreement with the EU27 having signed up to all the provisions in the WA? Will Putin have stopped laughing?
> > @Ploppikins said:
> > It's catch 22, I was initially attracted to a clean break, bare bones version of brexit. However, after seeing the utter opposition it was getting, thought twice and decided I could live with Labs customs deal or even May's deal. Was prepared to back Lab.
> >
> > However, I ended up voting Brexit Party. Why? Because for those who want to overturn a democratic referendum will never stop, no compromise will ever be good enough. You can have revoke or revoke.
> >
> > There's no denying the LDs gained a lot of momentum from the locals and in the EU campaign. This was based on a policy of no compromise. I therefore backed the opposite party closest to my views who also won't compromise.
> >
> > The two (LD and BP) are feeding off other, like lab and con have for years, it's almost parasitic.
> >
> > By the way I am aware it goes both ways and if more brexiters appeared happy to compromise the LDs might not have done so well.
>
> Might I ask you, as a thoughtful no-dealer, where do you think the UK (if it exists, ho ho) will be 1 year, 5 years and 10 years after a no-deal crashout? Will the GFA and NI have blown up? Will that result in worldwide badwill, particularly from the US Congress? Will Scotland have left? Will the London government be stuck negotiating with every trade bloc in the world in bad conditions? Will we have signed an agreement with the EU27 having signed up to all the provisions in the WA? Will Putin have stopped laughing?
I am not convinced that anyone can be considered thoughtful, with a username like that.
> Completely O/T, but the visible effect of ash dieback around East Sussex this year is quite horrific. Previously there have been quite a lot of trees showing some symptoms, but this year it has suddenly got a lot worse with something like half of the ash trees looking as though they are not just affected but rapidly dying off.
Same here in South Cumbria
> This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History.
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1134103738182963202
>
>
>
> But, but, we are always told what an incredible contribution our creative arts make to our economy. Colour me unshocked.
This sounds like yet another one of these "no compromise" situations where we have to choose either arts or sciences because one is fundamentally more important than the other.
> > @SquareRoot said:
> > NPexMP was part of Blair's govt that won three times, His party blatantly ignore the Opposition virtually the whole time Labour were in power, it is not so different from what's going on now, the only difference being that Blair had large majorities. No majority is why we are in the mess we are now. If TMay had had a decent majority, the ERG loons could have been ignored and Brexit would have been done and dusted.
>
> And they promised then failed to deliver a fairer voting system - a broken promise that NP was complicit in.
Not really. I've been a supporter of Labour Campaign for Electoral Reform throughout my career, but as a backbencher you can't push legislation through. In the oresent situation, it seems to me essential - the current polling would produce a virtually random result, with any of 4 parties possibly gaining a majority through a freak effect of FPTP.
A PR system would of course producr no overall majority, but that's where the public is at the moment, and it would avoid someone winning and ruling by accident.
> It's catch 22, I was initially attracted to a clean break, bare bones version of brexit. However, after seeing the utter opposition it was getting, thought twice and decided I could live with Labs customs deal or even May's deal. Was prepared to back Lab.
>
> However, I ended up voting Brexit Party. Why? Because for those who want to overturn a democratic referendum will never stop, no compromise will ever be good enough. You can have revoke or revoke.
>
> There's no denying the LDs gained a lot of momentum from the locals and in the EU campaign. This was based on a policy of no compromise. I therefore backed the opposite party closest to my views who also won't compromise.
>
> The two (LD and BP) are feeding off other, like lab and con have for years, it's almost parasitic.
>
> By the way I am aware it goes both ways and if more brexiters appeared happy to compromise the LDs might not have done so well.
Yes, that's the kind of reasoning I was thinking of. I think it's a pity.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @SquareRoot said:
> > > NPexMP was part of Blair's govt that won three times, His party blatantly ignore the Opposition virtually the whole time Labour were in power, it is not so different from what's going on now, the only difference being that Blair had large majorities. No majority is why we are in the mess we are now. If TMay had had a decent majority, the ERG loons could have been ignored and Brexit would have been done and dusted.
> >
> > And they promised then failed to deliver a fairer voting system - a broken promise that NP was complicit in.
>
> Not really. I've been a supporter of Labour Campaign for Electoral Reform throughout my career, but as a backbencher you can't push legislation through. In the oresent situation, it seems to me essential - the current polling would produce a virtually random result, with any of 4 parties possibly gaining a majority through a freak effect of FPTP.
>
> A PR system would of course producr no overall majority, but that's where the public is at the moment, and it would avoid someone winning and ruling by accident.
You wanted PR when you might have lost your seat, as Sir Humphrey would have said.. very courageous...
Surely the force that has made compromise impossible is the EU heirarchy and the Irish Government, for insisting on making it impossible for any future UK government to avoid the backstop other than by requiring the UK to remain part of a customs union in perpetuity. They have made no meaningful compromises at any stage of the negotiation and as a result united both Remainers and Leavers against the WA, the latter concluding that the WA with this provision was worse than what we have now. Furthermore the EU insisted on the UK signing up to this within a half finished WA, knowing that by it would give them the whip hand in all the unfinished detail in the negotiations yet to come. It did so because it judged that if the UK failed to sign up to such onerous terms, the most likely outcome would be that the UK would eventually remain in the EU, and I think that judgement will prove to have been correct.
It is quite likely that, had the EU heirarchy instead made its first meaningful compromise of the whole negotiating process, by engaging seriously and in good faith in the UK's efforts to find a way around the backstop, then the rest of the WA incorporating all May's numerous concessions would eventually have found the votes to get through parliament.
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > Completely O/T, but the visible effect of ash dieback around East Sussex this year is quite horrific. Previously there have been quite a lot of trees showing some symptoms, but this year it has suddenly got a lot worse with something like half of the ash trees looking as though they are not just affected but rapidly dying off.
>
> Same here in South Cumbria
Both East Sussex and South Cumbria do seem to be having very high incidence. Lincolnshire where I am seems to be lightly affected so far but I am sure it will get here eventually.
http://chalaramap.fera.defra.gov.uk/
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > On topic the key as ever remains Labour MPs from Leave seats.
>
> > >
>
> > > On today's Yougov about 50 of them could lose their seats to the Brexit Party and even more saw the Brexit Party ahead in their local authority areas last week. If the Brexit Party gain Peterborough from Labour next week that could be enough to tip them towards the WA especially if Labpur policy shifts to EUref2 or revoke.
>
> > >
>
> > > With 286 MPs already having voted for the WA at MV3, 50 Labour MPs added on top of that makes 336 and a majority
>
> >
>
> > It's touching how you are the only person in the country still holding out for the Labour leavers.
>
>
>
> I am not holding out, I would rather enjoy seeing Yvette Cooper and Gloria Del Piero and Ed Miliband and Dennis Skinner lose their seats to the Brexit Party as they would on today's Yougov, if they fail to deliver Brexit.
>
>
>
> However a Withdrawal Agreement remains the best solution for Brexit and it will only be delivered with Labour MPs from Leave seats votes that is a fact
>
> Well yes, it is fact it will only be delivered that way, it is not a fact or even a likely occurence it will happen. You keep falling back on the same trick as the no dealers - 'It will happen because it must happen'.
It may happen because if Labour MPs from Leave seats do not vote for it they will be faced with the nightmare of a Revoke v No Deal choice in October given both Macron and likely Germany will veto further extension. Do the former and lose their seats, fail to vote for revoke and allow No Deal and they lose their party
> Completely O/T, but the visible effect of ash dieback around East Sussex this year is quite horrific. Previously there have been quite a lot of trees showing some symptoms, but this year it has suddenly got a lot worse with something like half of the ash trees looking as though they are not just affected but rapidly dying off.
Brexit.
1) Internal Unity - well, perceived unity, that is. Perversely, that may be BXP's problem once the debate moves on.
2) Clarity of position - both BXP and LDs have positions on Brexit/A50 which are unequivocal and clearly understood. As has been known for years, voters do not like parties who are or appear to be disunited.
While both Labour and the Conservatives appear internally split and air those splits so publicly, both the BXP and LDs will prosper.
> I am not holding out, I would rather enjoy seeing Yvette Cooper and Gloria Del Piero and Ed Miliband and Dennis Skinner lose their seats to the Brexit Party as they would on today's Yougov if they fail to deliver Brexit.
>
>
>
> However a Withdrawal Agreement remains the best solution for Brexit and it will only be delivered with Labour MPs from Leave seats votes that is a fact
>
>
> The flaw is that those who voted TBP will probably not see the WA as real Brexit, and those Labour MPs lose their seats anyway.
The Brexit Party have only surged because we are still in the EU, if we had left the EU by now even with the Withdrawal Agreement then the Brexit Party would be polling not much more than UKIP in 2015 ie around 10% rather than over 20%
> This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History.
>
> Poorer parents?
Isn't it simply that with interest payments on the debt at usourus levels, the debt accumulates at a rate that even the well paid (eg medicine) will never pay off.
It is clear that most of the debt will be written off and paid for by the tax payer. The sooner we deal with the issue, the smaller the problem. In a decade it will be like PFI debt, and a millstone around the neck of a generation, and a generation that will also have the burden of paying for the health, social care and pensions of baby boomers like me.
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > Completely O/T, but the visible effect of ash dieback around East Sussex this year is quite horrific. Previously there have been quite a lot of trees showing some symptoms, but this year it has suddenly got a lot worse with something like half of the ash trees looking as though they are not just affected but rapidly dying off.
>
> Brexit.
Yes ,there is an huge effort round here cutting large areas down. There will be a glut of log burning stoves son. North Lancs/South Cumbria.
The Danish election is next Wednesday - a Megafon poll shows the centre-left bloc ahead by 54-46.
The updated Voxmeter poll (in seats) gives the centre-left bloc 98 seats in the new Folketing with the centre -right bloc on 77 (leaving 5 seats to other groups). That would be a comfortable majority for the Social Democrat-led coalition.
>
> The Brexit Party have only surged because we are still in the EU, if we had left the EU by now even with the Withdrawal Agreement then the Brexit Party would be polling not much more than UKIP in 2015 ie around 10% rather than over 20%
------
"If the horse hadn't bolted, it would be in the stable..."
> > @A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:
> > > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > > Completely O/T, but the visible effect of ash dieback around East Sussex this year is quite horrific. Previously there have been quite a lot of trees showing some symptoms, but this year it has suddenly got a lot worse with something like half of the ash trees looking as though they are not just affected but rapidly dying off.
> >
> > Same here in South Cumbria
>
> Both East Sussex and South Cumbria do seem to be having very high incidence. Lincolnshire where I am seems to be lightly affected so far but I am sure it will get here eventually.
>
> http://chalaramap.fera.defra.gov.uk/
I was out running today, South Cumbria, and they were widening the road to allow heavy vehicles in to remove the dead wood, my usual route up the fells is closed to allow the heavy machinery to operate, closed for 6 months. Yes it is serious.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @SquareRoot said:
> > > NPexMP was part of Blair's govt that won three times, His party blatantly ignore the Opposition virtually the whole time Labour were in power, it is not so different from what's going on now, the only difference being that Blair had large majorities. No majority is why we are in the mess we are now. If TMay had had a decent majority, the ERG loons could have been ignored and Brexit would have been done and dusted.
> >
> > And they promised then failed to deliver a fairer voting system - a broken promise that NP was complicit in.
>
> Not really. I've been a supporter of Labour Campaign for Electoral Reform throughout my career, but as a backbencher you can't push legislation through. In the oresent situation, it seems to me essential - the current polling would produce a virtually random result, with any of 4 parties possibly gaining a majority through a freak effect of FPTP.
>
> A PR system would of course producr no overall majority, but that's where the public is at the moment, and it would avoid someone winning and ruling by accident.
I must have missed your vocal protests when Labour ditched its promise.
If it was as straightfoward as you want it to be we would not be in such a mess. Remaining is our best option now, but acting like MPs must go down that route to rescue the public from its stupidity is as similarly blinkered as a no dealer assuming all will be totally fine because they say so. Not as disruptive, but just as blinkered.
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> >
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > > > On topic the key as ever remains Labour MPs from Leave seats.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > On today's Yougov about 50 of them could lose their seats to the Brexit Party and even more saw the Brexit Party ahead in their local authority areas last week. If the Brexit Party gain Peterborough from Labour next week that could be enough to tip them towards the WA especially if Labpur policy shifts to EUref2 or revoke.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > With 286 MPs already having voted for the WA at MV3, 50 Labour MPs added on top of that makes 336 and a majority
> >
> > >
> >
> > > It's touching how you are the only person in the country still holding out for the Labour leavers.
> >
> >
> >
> > I am not holding out, I would rather enjoy seeing Yvette Cooper and Gloria Del Piero and Ed Miliband and Dennis Skinner lose their seats to the Brexit Party as they would on today's Yougov, if they fail to deliver Brexit.
> >
> >
> >
> > However a Withdrawal Agreement remains the best solution for Brexit and it will only be delivered with Labour MPs from Leave seats votes that is a fact
> >
> > Well yes, it is fact it will only be delivered that way, it is not a fact or even a likely occurence it will happen. You keep falling back on the same trick as the no dealers - 'It will happen because it must happen'.
>
> It may happen because if Labour MPs from Leave seats do not vote for it they will be faced with the nightmare of a Revoke v No Deal choice in October given both Macron and likely Germany will veto further extension. Do the former and lose their seats, fail to vote for revoke and allow No Deal and they lose their party
Why would they lose their party ? Do you think the local CLP in a working class leave seat would deselect them ? I got the impression that the frustrations of these MPs were mirrored by the local activists and councillors.
It was quite apparent some time ago it was the WA, or it might well be no deal or no brexit. They still said no.
Your reasoning, unintentionally, is that all those Lab MPs are incredibly thick and did not notice that would happen until the rise of BXP and the LDs polarising us toward revoke or no deal, and the WA being dead because May is now out the door.
I happen to have more respect for their intellect than the idea they could not see 2 feet in front of themselves when rejecting the WA over and over and over.
> > @viewcode said:
> > This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History.
> >
> > Poorer parents?
>
> Isn't it simply that with interest payments on the debt at usourus levels, the debt accumulates at a rate that even the well paid (eg medicine) will never pay off.
>
> It is clear that most of the debt will be written off and paid for by the tax payer. The sooner we deal with the issue, the smaller the problem. In a decade it will be like PFI debt, and a millstone around the neck of a generation, and a generation that will also have the burden of paying for the health, social care and pensions of baby boomers like me.
I think it may point to how poor some courses are too, and how low they're prepared to set the entrance bar. If you're looking for a job in a technical field with a technical degree and you apply you will get found out immediately, probably at interview, if you're not up to it. If you study English its likely that you won't actually need much of that, and that employers will expect to have to mould you a little bit towards more commercial avenues.
I’m assuming some seeds and saplings are safely in a lab somewhere for preservation “just in case”.
> I'm not prepared to compromise on Corbyn any longer. He has to go. He is not fit to be Prime minister. He is a disgrace.
Glad you reached that conclusion.
Good luck, but you will need to fight and they will not go quietly.
It is worth one 5 year period to kill Brexit, and ensure no Corbyn, and then revert to whatever new sensible party emerges.
If it's Revoke vs No Deal how would your MP vote? How would YOU vote if you were an MP?
If the Conservatives back Revoke, BXP will sweep them aside at the next GE. If the Conservatives back No Deal and it's as severe as the CBI and Bank of England think, the Party will own the dislocation and the damage along with BXP and those in Labour who back it.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:
> > > > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > > > Completely O/T, but the visible effect of ash dieback around East Sussex this year is quite horrific. Previously there have been quite a lot of trees showing some symptoms, but this year it has suddenly got a lot worse with something like half of the ash trees looking as though they are not just affected but rapidly dying off.
> > >
> > > Same here in South Cumbria
> >
> > Both East Sussex and South Cumbria do seem to be having very high incidence. Lincolnshire where I am seems to be lightly affected so far but I am sure it will get here eventually.
> >
> > http://chalaramap.fera.defra.gov.uk/
>
> I was out running today, South Cumbria, and they were widening the road to allow heavy vehicles in to remove the dead wood, my usual route up the fells is closed to allow the heavy machinery to operate, closed for 6 months. Yes it is serious.
Are these big, monoculture ash woods? My impression was that you mainly get ash in mixed deciduous woodland, and that the trees are relatively spindly (therefore light) compared to big fat conifers.
Narendra Modi's BJP won 303 seats of 543 in India's parliament on only 37.5% of the vote. Overall, his allies in the National Democratic Alliance pushed the total up to 358 seats.
I think Nick's point about 'winning' was pertinent. Or perhaps more accurately - wanting to see the other side defeated.
I really don't see this. To me the compromise was that we continued to have a close working relationship with the EU, free trade, relatively free movement of labour, acceptance of the existing rights of our respective citizens, mutual recognition of equivalent regulation, joint enterprises on certain matters where we had common interest, an acceptance that such freedom would mean that the regulatory equivalence would continue going forward etc, etc.
All of this was possible through May's deal and a subsequent FTA. Theoretically, it still is. If we go down such a path it will be for future generations to decide whether we apply to rejoin, which we ought to be able to do relatively easily if we keep ourselves in step with EU regulation, or go more and more our own separate way.
This was the compromise and it has been rejected by extremists on both sides. It is unfortunate and our country will be the weaker and more divided for it.
++++++++++++++++++++++
+1
The key point that is missed by both sides is that getting their way won't make the other side go away. The nationalists will still be there if we stay in the EU, and the internationalists won't change their mind or flee the country if we leave.
You see this in comments such as "oh, if Brexit is put off, it will all have been such a faff, no one will want to raise the subject again". Or, "once we've all settled to the reality of No Deal, no one will be campaigning to join the EU again."
Guys; you're all deluded. And the end result of your delusions will be a weaker, poorer and more divided UK.
Let me point the finger of blame a bit. Mrs May, you idiot. Your speech with red lines was dumb beyond measure, you should have been trying to forge consensus from the start. Baker and Francois: you too. Jeremy Corbyn: your unwillingness to sign up for something that would be good for the country becase it would "f*ck the Tories more" is beyond reproach. I could go on.
> > @jayfdee said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > @A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:
> > > > > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > > > > Completely O/T, but the visible effect of ash dieback around East Sussex this year is quite horrific. Previously there have been quite a lot of trees showing some symptoms, but this year it has suddenly got a lot worse with something like half of the ash trees looking as though they are not just affected but rapidly dying off.
> > > >
> > > > Same here in South Cumbria
> > >
> > > Both East Sussex and South Cumbria do seem to be having very high incidence. Lincolnshire where I am seems to be lightly affected so far but I am sure it will get here eventually.
> > >
> > > http://chalaramap.fera.defra.gov.uk/
> >
> > I was out running today, South Cumbria, and they were widening the road to allow heavy vehicles in to remove the dead wood, my usual route up the fells is closed to allow the heavy machinery to operate, closed for 6 months. Yes it is serious.
>
> Are these big, monoculture ash woods? My impression was that you mainly get ash in mixed deciduous woodland, and that the trees are relatively spindly (therefore light) compared to big fat conifers.
Think it is just mixed woodland, on a private estate, with public access.
> Is it not possible to inoculate trees?
>
> I’m assuming some seeds and saplings are safely in a lab somewhere for preservation “just in case”.
I seem to recall that some Ash some trees are developing resistance to die back. It was ever thus, except for the dinosaurs who couldn't cope with an asteroid collision.
Isn't that the case for Elm trees who were similarly affected by disease>?
> > @Ishmael_Z said:
> > > @jayfdee said:
> > > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > > @A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:
> > > > > > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > > > > > Completely O/T, but the visible effect of ash dieback around East Sussex this year is quite horrific. Previously there have been quite a lot of trees showing some symptoms, but this year it has suddenly got a lot worse with something like half of the ash trees looking as though they are not just affected but rapidly dying off.
> > > > >
> > > > > Same here in South Cumbria
> > > >
> > > > Both East Sussex and South Cumbria do seem to be having very high incidence. Lincolnshire where I am seems to be lightly affected so far but I am sure it will get here eventually.
> > > >
> > > > http://chalaramap.fera.defra.gov.uk/
> > >
> > > I was out running today, South Cumbria, and they were widening the road to allow heavy vehicles in to remove the dead wood, my usual route up the fells is closed to allow the heavy machinery to operate, closed for 6 months. Yes it is serious.
> >
> > Are these big, monoculture ash woods? My impression was that you mainly get ash in mixed deciduous woodland, and that the trees are relatively spindly (therefore light) compared to big fat conifers.
>
> Think it is just mixed woodland, on a private estate, with public access.
They've been predicting for some time that over 90% of ash trees in GB will die or have to be felled.
> This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History.
>
> https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1134103738182963202
I can't be the only one to notice that philosophy is missing from that list. That makes it pretty clear to me that philosophy is the only subject that is clearly and unambiguously positive for the country.
> Is it not possible to inoculate trees?
>
> I’m assuming some seeds and saplings are safely in a lab somewhere for preservation “just in case”.
Somebody seems to be doing something.
https://livingashproject.org.uk/
> @DavidL said:
> I think Nick's point about 'winning' was pertinent. Or perhaps more accurately - wanting to see the other side defeated.
>
> I really don't see this. To me the compromise was that we continued to have a close working relationship with the EU, free trade, relatively free movement of labour, acceptance of the existing rights of our respective citizens, mutual recognition of equivalent regulation, joint enterprises on certain matters where we had common interest, an acceptance that such freedom would mean that the regulatory equivalence would continue going forward etc, etc.
>
> All of this was possible through May's deal and a subsequent FTA. Theoretically, it still is. If we go down such a path it will be for future generations to decide whether we apply to rejoin, which we ought to be able to do relatively easily if we keep ourselves in step with EU regulation, or go more and more our own separate way.
>
> This was the compromise and it has been rejected by extremists on both sides. It is unfortunate and our country will be the weaker and more divided for it.
>
> ++++++++++++++++++++++
>
> +1
>
> The key point that is missed by both sides is that getting their way won't make the other side go away. The nationalists will still be there if we stay in the EU, and the internationalists won't change their mind or flee the country if we leave.
>
> You see this in comments such as "oh, if Brexit is put off, it will all have been such a faff, no one will want to raise the subject again". Or, "once we've all settled to the reality of No Deal, no one will be campaigning to join the EU again."
>
> Guys; you're all deluded. And the end result of your delusions will be a weaker, poorer and more divided UK.
>
> Let me point the finger of blame a bit. Mrs May, you idiot. Your speech with red lines was dumb beyond measure, you should have been trying to forge consensus from the start. Baker and Francois: you too. Jeremy Corbyn: your unwillingness to sign up for something that would be good for the country becase it would "f*ck the Tories more" is beyond reproach. I could go on.
Here's a thought for our times:
The prevalence of social media makes compromise harder.
The more extreme the views the more publicity they will receive.
And its easier to communicate more extreme views than anything which requires discussion and explanation.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > Is it not possible to inoculate trees?
> >
> > I’m assuming some seeds and saplings are safely in a lab somewhere for preservation “just in case”.
>
> I seem to recall that some Ash some trees are developing resistance to die back. It was ever thus, except for the dinosaurs who couldn't cope with an asteroid collision.
>
> Isn't that the case for Elm trees who were similarly affected by disease>?
>
The one thing that might save Ash trees is their diversity. There are thousands of genetic variations, some of which do seem to have resistance to Chalara. The problem for elms was they were effectively clones of each other. If you got a parkland full of elms then just about everyone would be genetically identical. Hence the reason Dutch Elm disease was so destructive. They are now trying to genetically engineer resistance varieties but it is only the last few years they have started to have success.
>
> They. faced. the. choice. already.
>
> It was quite apparent some time ago it was the WA, or it might well be no deal or no brexit. They still said no.
>
> Your reasoning, unintentionally, is that all those Lab MPs are incredibly thick and did not notice that would happen until the rise of BXP and the LDs polarising us toward revoke or no deal, and the WA being dead because May is now out the door.
>
> I happen to have more respect for their intellect than the idea they could not see 2 feet in front of themselves when rejecting the WA over and over and over.
Actually I think many of our MPs are incredibly thick or incredibly complacent or incredibly addicted to their posturing and scheming games.
>
> The key point that is missed by both sides is that getting their way won't make the other side go away. The nationalists will still be there if we stay in the EU, and the internationalists won't change their mind or flee the country if we leave.
>
----------
The solution is to break up the UK. English nationalists will get a state called England again, and by turning Europe into the glue that binds the former nations of the UK, it will allow us to have a healthier and more constructive attitude to European integration.
> > @rottenborough said:
>
> > This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History.
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1134103738182963202
>
>
>
>
>
> I can't be the only one to notice that philosophy is missing from that list. That makes it pretty clear to me that philosophy is the only subject that is clearly and unambiguously positive for the country.
>
> Combined with politics and economics?
Too right!
On thread.
Surely the force that has made compromise impossible is the EU heirarchy and the Irish Government, for insisting on making it impossible for any future UK government to avoid the backstop other than by requiring the UK to remain part of a customs union in perpetuity. They have made no meaningful compromises at any stage of the negotiation and as a result united both Remainers and Leavers against the WA, the latter concluding that the WA with this provision was worse than what we have now. Furthermore the EU insisted on the UK signing up to this within a half finished WA, knowing that by it would give them the whip hand in all the unfinished detail in the negotiations yet to come. It did so because it judged that if the UK failed to sign up to such onerous terms, the most likely outcome would be that the UK would eventually remain in the EU, and I think that judgement will prove to have been correct.
It is quite likely that, had the EU heirarchy instead made its first meaningful compromise of the whole negotiating process, by engaging seriously and in good faith in the UK's efforts to find a way around the backstop, then the rest of the WA incorporating all May's numerous concessions would eventually have found the votes to get through parliament.
+++++++++++++++++++++
The mistake you (and a lot of other No Dealers) make is to think that the EU want us in the backstop. The reality is the backstop is at least as uncomfortable to the EU as to us.
It leaves us in a customs union with they EU, with no barriers to the flow of (compliant*) goods between the two.
But it also involves no Freedom of Movement or fees. From a purely theoretical perspective, it would allow to us (for example) remove all worker and environmental protection, and use this to get our costs down.
Given the EU extracts fees from other countries in a similar position, and requires bodies to make sure that neither side engages in a race to the bottom as far as regulation goes, this is not a state they want to be in.
Furthermore, the backstop is only applicable in the event that:
(a) we cannot agree an FTA and
(b) no technical solution like the US/Canada system for the preclearance of trucks is implemented**
If the EU is not sincerely working towards either of these, then we are free to go to international arbitration***.
So what are we scared of? If the EU is not sincere in wanting an FTA or a technical solution, we have a mechanism for departure. If they are sincere, then it's not an issue.
* Compliant means meets EU standards for voltage, radio emissions, etc.
** Yes, Canada and the US have a system for preclearing shipments.
*** The UK happily signs up to international arbitration all the time
It would be more comforting, in a way, if they were just thick - there would be the hope enough of them could be brought round to some level of understanding. Because they are not all that thick, there is no hope of that.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > Is it not possible to inoculate trees?
> >
> > I’m assuming some seeds and saplings are safely in a lab somewhere for preservation “just in case”.
>
> I seem to recall that some Ash some trees are developing resistance to die back. It was ever thus, except for the dinosaurs who couldn't cope with an asteroid collision.
>
> Isn't that the case for Elm trees who were similarly affected by disease>?
>
The world is full of small, feathered dinosaurs, referred to by no-fun killjoys as "descended from dinosaurs."
> @Wulfrun_Phil said:
> On thread.
>
> Surely the force that has made compromise impossible is the EU heirarchy and the Irish Government, for insisting on making it impossible for any future UK government to avoid the backstop other than by requiring the UK to remain part of a customs union in perpetuity. They have made no meaningful compromises at any stage of the negotiation and as a result united both Remainers and Leavers against the WA, the latter concluding that the WA with this provision was worse than what we have now. Furthermore the EU insisted on the UK signing up to this within a half finished...
>
> It is quite likely that, had the EU heirarchy instead made its first meaningful compromise of the whole negotiating process, by engaging seriously and in good faith in the UK's efforts to find a way around the backstop, then the rest of the WA incorporating all May's numerous concessions would eventually have found the votes to get through parliament.
>
> +++++++++++++++++++++
>
> The mistake you (and a lot of other No Dealers) make is to think that the EU want us in the backstop. The reality is the backstop is at least as uncomfortable to the EU as to us.
>
> It leaves us in a customs union with they EU, with no barriers to the flow of (compliant*) goods between the two.
>
> But it also involves no Freedom of Movement or fees. From a purely theoretical perspective, it would allow to us (for example) remove all worker and environmental protection, and use this to get our costs down.
>
> Given the EU extracts fees from other countries in a similar position, and requires bodies to make sure that neither side engages in a race to the bottom as far as regulation goes, this is not a state they want to be in.
>
> Furthermore, the backstop is only applicable in the event that:
> (a) we cannot agree an FTA and
> (b) no technical solution like the US/Canada system for the preclearance of trucks is implemented**
>
> If the EU is not sincerely working towards either of these, then we are free to go to international arbitration***.
>
> So what are we scared of? If the EU is not sincere in wanting an FTA or a technical solution, we have a mechanism for departure. If they are sincere, then it's not an issue.
>
> * Compliant means meets EU standards for voltage, radio emissions, etc.
> ** Yes, Canada and the US have a system for preclearing shipments.
> *** The UK happily signs up to international arbitration all the time
Indeed. I’ve been arguing similarly for months; I assumed people
Finally understanding this would lead to the deal passing.
But it didn’t because:
A) the opposition was entrenched and consists of no compromise no dealers and no brexiters
So the question I ponder is this; would good salesmanship get the dal over the line?
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/londoners-diary/the-londoner-racism-row-over-brexiteers-tweet-a4156136.html
>
> So what are we scared of? If the EU is not sincere in wanting an FTA or a technical solution, we have a mechanism for departure. If they are sincere, then it's not an issue.
>
---------
"Alternative arrangements" does not mean the EU is obliged to look for a technical solution. Indeed the withdrawal agreement precludes any infrastructure or associated checks.
> > @rcs1000 said:
> >
> > The key point that is missed by both sides is that getting their way won't make the other side go away. The nationalists will still be there if we stay in the EU, and the internationalists won't change their mind or flee the country if we leave.
> >
> ----------
>
> The solution is to break up the UK. English nationalists will get a state called England again, and by turning Europe into the glue that binds the former nations of the UK, it will allow us to have a healthier and more constructive attitude to European integration.
England voted Leave as did Wales and polling is clear English voters would rather break up the UK than stay in the EU, not break up the UK to rejoin it
> > @rcs1000 said:
> >
> > So what are we scared of? If the EU is not sincere in wanting an FTA or a technical solution, we have a mechanism for departure. If they are sincere, then it's not an issue.
> >
> ---------
>
> "Alternative arrangements" does not mean the EU is obliged to look for a technical solution. Indeed the withdrawal agreement precludes any infrastructure or associated checks.
Yes, I know you believe that a system where checks happen away from the border is impossible.
It is a view share by, ummm, your mum?
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > > @kle4 said:
> > >
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > >
> > > > > On topic the key as ever remains Labour MPs from Leave seats.
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > > > On today's Yougov about 50 of them could lose their seats to the Brexit Party and even more saw the Brexit Party ahead in their local authority areas last week. If the Brexit Party gain Peterborough from Labour next week that could be enough to tip them towards the WA especially if Labpur policy shifts to EUref2 or revoke.
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > > > With 286 MPs already having voted for the WA at MV3, 50 Labour MPs added on top of that makes 336 and a majority
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > It's touching how you are the only person in the country still holding out for the Labour leavers.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I am not holding out, I would rather enjoy seeing Yvette Cooper and Gloria Del Piero and Ed Miliband and Dennis Skinner lose their seats to the Brexit Party as they would on today's Yougov, if they fail to deliver Brexit.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > However a Withdrawal Agreement remains the best solution for Brexit and it will only be delivered with Labour MPs from Leave seats votes that is a fact
> > >
> > > Well yes, it is fact it will only be delivered that way, it is not a fact or even a likely occurence it will happen. You keep falling back on the same trick as the no dealers - 'It will happen because it must happen'.
> >
> > It may happen because if Labour MPs from Leave seats do not vote for it they will be faced with the nightmare of a Revoke v No Deal choice in October given both Macron and likely Germany will veto further extension. Do the former and lose their seats, fail to vote for revoke and allow No Deal and they lose their party
>
> Why would they lose their party ? Do you think the local CLP in a working class leave seat would deselect them ? I got the impression that the frustrations of these MPs were mirrored by the local activists and councillors.
If they vote for No Deal by default by refusing to back Revoke over No Deal I suspect Remainers in their local party would start the process of deselecting them
>
> Yes, I know you believe that a system where checks happen away from the border is impossible.
>
> It is a view share by, ummm, your mum?
-------------
Why 'alternative arrangements' aren't an alternative:
https://www.cer.eu/insights/northern-ireland-and-backstop-why-alternative-arrangements-arent-alternative
"Which leads to a sensitive discussion as to how far away from the actual frontier checks need to be in order to not be understood as border checks. Five miles? Ten miles? Belfast? The Port of Larne?"
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > > @kle4 said:
>
> >
>
> > > > @HYUFD said:
>
> >
>
> > > > On topic the key as ever remains Labour MPs from Leave seats.
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > > > On today's Yougov about 50 of them could lose their seats to the Brexit Party and even more saw the Brexit Party ahead in their local authority areas last week. If the Brexit Party gain Peterborough from Labour next week that could be enough to tip them towards the WA especially if Labpur policy shifts to EUref2 or revoke.
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > > > With 286 MPs already having voted for the WA at MV3, 50 Labour MPs added on top of that makes 336 and a majority
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > It's touching how you are the only person in the country still holding out for the Labour leavers.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > I am not holding out, I would rather enjoy seeing Yvette Cooper and Gloria Del Piero and Ed Miliband and Dennis Skinner lose their seats to the Brexit Party as they would on today's Yougov, if they fail to deliver Brexit.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > However a Withdrawal Agreement remains the best solution for Brexit and it will only be delivered with Labour MPs from Leave seats votes that is a fact
>
> >
>
> > Well yes, it is fact it will only be delivered that way, it is not a fact or even a likely occurence it will happen. You keep falling back on the same trick as the no dealers - 'It will happen because it must happen'.
>
>
>
> It may happen because if Labour MPs arty
>
> They. faced. the. choice. already.
>
> It was quite apparent some time ago it was the WA, or it might well be no deal or no brexit. They still said no.
>
> Your reasoning, unintentionally, is that all those Lab MPs are incredibly thick and did not notice that would happen until the rise of BXP and the LDs polarising us toward revoke or no deal, and the WA being dead because May is now out the door.
>
> I happen to have more respect for their intellect than the idea they could not see 2 feet in front of themselves when rejecting the WA over and over and over.
Far beyond me to comment on the intellect of northern and Midlands Labour MPs (though fair to say few of them are Einstein with a few sharp exceptions like Flint and Snell who could see the looming disaster and voted for the Deal) but it is starting to dawn on them that the metropolitan elite of their party will shaft them and their seats rather than allow any form of Brexit.
Exhibit A: Lisa Nandy
https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1133295790120734721?s=20
https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1132772199004332032?s=20
> > @nichomar said:
>
> > > @rottenborough said:
>
> >
>
> > > This seems odd. Why so many Maths/Comp sci people not able to pay off their student debt and thus will be written off? Higher than English and History.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1134103738182963202
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > I can't be the only one to notice that philosophy is missing from that list. That makes it pretty clear to me that philosophy is the only subject that is clearly and unambiguously positive for the country.
>
> >
>
> > Combined with politics and economics?
>
>
>
> Too right!
>
> I’m afraid nothing beats chemical engineering and management economics for being positive to the country! The space the school occupied now replaced by ......computer gaming!
Happy to agree with you regarding Chem Eng. Not sure about polluting the degree with management economics though!
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> >
> > > > @kle4 said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > > On topic the key as ever remains Labour MPs from Leave seats.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > &tip them towards the WA especially if Labpur policy shifts to EUref2 or revoke.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > > With 286 MPs already having voted for the WA at MV3, 50 Labour MPs added on top of that makes 336 and a majority
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > It's touching how you are the only person in the country still holding out for the Labour leavers.
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I am not holding out, I would rather enjoy seeing Yvette Cooper and Gloria Del Piero and Ed Miliband and Dennis Skinner lose their seats to the Brexit Party as they would on today's Yougov, if they fail to deliver Brexit.
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > However a Withdrawal Agreement remains the best solution for Brexit and it will only be delivered with Labour MPs from Leave seats votes that is a fact
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Well yes, it is fact it will only be delivered that way, it is not a fact or even a likely occurence it will happen. You keep falling back on the same trick as the no dealers - 'It will happen because it must happen'.
> >
> >
> >
> > It may happen because if Labour MPs arty
> >
> > They. faced. the. choice. already.
> >
> > It was quite apparent some time ago it was the WA, or it might well be no deal or no brexit. They still said no.
> >
> > Your reasoning, unintentionally, is that all those Lab MPs are incredibly thick and did not notice that would happen until the rise of BXP and the LDs polarising us toward revoke or no deal, and the WA being dead because May is now out the door.
> >
> > I happen to have more respect for their intellect than the idea they could not see 2 feet in front of themselves when rejecting the WA over and over and over.
>
> Far beyond me to comment on the intellect of northern and Midlands Labour MPs (though fair to say few of them are Einstein with a few sharp exceptions like Flint and Snell who could see the looming disaster and voted for the Deal) but it is starting to dawn on them that the metropolitan elite of their party will shaft them and their seats rather than allow any form of Brexit.
>
> Exhibit A: Lisa Nandy
>
> https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1133295790120734721?s=20
>
> https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1132772199004332032?s=20
They thought that by voting down the WA, they could (a) do immense harm to the Conservatives and (b) remain unscathed.
(a) was correct (b) wasn't.