> @viewcode said: > > @viewcode said: > > > Interesting that senior cabinet ministers with reasonable numbers of endorsements - Hunt, Javid and Hancock - are not rated at all in the betting market. That makes this leadership election really unusual. Perhaps that's a reason for the favourite to win this time? > > > > > > The odds on Lib Coalition winning the Australian Federal Election at the moment the polls closed was 10% according to Australian Betfair. They won. > > > > > > I think it's time we took this "betting odds are predictive" malarky out behind the shed and shoot it. How many elections since 2010 has it gotten wrong? > > > > And how many has it got right? > > > > A 10% chance should come in 10% of the time, not never. > > A useful reminder, thank you. According to the paper I am currently reading that process is called "calibration", although I am not sure that's universal, as bookies, modellers and statisticians use different terminology.
Indeed I think that Nate Silvers 30% chance that Trump wins was an excellent prediction, despite most people claiming he got it wrong.
> I've met quite a few stupid people with Oxbridge degrees, although unlike Abbot most of them got to Oxbridge via their parents' wealth and an expensive public school.
>
> That is a fair point.
>
> But much though I dislike her, before her recent illness I have never heard suggestions Abbott was stupid.
>
> Racist, hypocritical, a bully, physically unpreposssing - yes.
>
> Stupid - no.
>
> Cambridge - I'm not going to be so dogmatic for Oxford - take them if they're very bright, or absolutely filthy rich. She wasn't the second.
Physically unprepossessing? Wtf has that to do with anything?
Edit - incidentally, while i fully agree it shouldn't have anything to do with their political status, it does. How many people instinctively disliked Gordon Brown because of his jaw deformity?
> @eristdoof said: > Indeed I think that Nate Silvers 30% chance that Trump wins was an excellent prediction, despite most people claiming he got it wrong.
Only a quarter of people have a good grasp of probability. The other half are totally clueless.
"The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ." is pretty special coming from an historian, even if not an ancient historian, and even from Cambridge.
Septimus Severus, Emperor of Rome who died at York in 211 AD, was of mixed race. Indeed his great rival Clodius was distinguished from him by being called 'Albinus' - 'white one.'
The date is wrong - the earliest Roman centurions (I think she probably meant 'legionaries') arrived in 55 BC, and more permanently in 43AD, but the sentiment is not.
> Edit - incidentally, while i fully agree it shouldn't have anything to do with their political status, it does. How many people instinctively disliked Gordon Brown because of his jaw deformity?
> @ydoethur said: > > @ydoethur said: > > > I've met quite a few stupid people with Oxbridge degrees, although unlike Abbot most of them got to Oxbridge via their parents' wealth and an expensive public school. > > > > > > That is a fair point. > > > > > > But much though I dislike her, before her recent illness I have never heard suggestions Abbott was stupid. > > > > > > Racist, hypocritical, a bully, physically unpreposssing - yes. > > > > > > Stupid - no. > > > > > > Cambridge - I'm not going to be so dogmatic for Oxford - take them if they're very bright, or absolutely filthy rich. She wasn't the second. > > > > Physically unprepossessing? Wtf has that to do with anything? > > > > I'd have expected better from you @ydoethur > > I was listing the comments I had heard about her. > > Edit - incidentally, while i fully agree it shouldn't have anything to do with their political status, it does. How many people instinctively disliked Gordon Brown because of his jaw deformity?
If appearance was that important how come all our top politicians aren't catwalk models with film star looks?
> @AndyJS said: > > @isam said: > > Pardon my ignorance, but why can’t the killer be named? Under 18 yes, but weren’t the boys who killed little James Bulger? > > > > https://twitter.com/romfordrecorder/status/1133774820104134658 > > The judge made an exception in the Bulger case, a decision which annoyed a lot of people in the legal profession from what I've read.
Both Robert Thompson and John Venables have had their name changed subsequently though
> @eristdoof said: > > @viewcode said: > > > @viewcode said: > > > > > Interesting that senior cabinet ministers with reasonable numbers of endorsements - Hunt, Javid and Hancock - are not rated at all in the betting market. That makes this leadership election really unusual. Perhaps that's a reason for the favourite to win this time? > > > > > > > > > > The odds on Lib Coalition winning the Australian Federal Election at the moment the polls closed was 10% according to Australian Betfair. They won. > > > > > > > > > > I think it's time we took this "betting odds are predictive" malarky out behind the shed and shoot it. How many elections since 2010 has it gotten wrong? > > > > > > > > And how many has it got right? > > > > > > > > A 10% chance should come in 10% of the time, not never. > > > > A useful reminder, thank you. According to the paper I am currently reading that process is called "calibration", although I am not sure that's universal, as bookies, modellers and statisticians use different terminology. > > Indeed I think that Nate Silvers 30% chance that Trump wins was an excellent prediction, despite most people claiming he got it wrong.
Likewise, though I think it's unfair to only rate a model on its final prediction. Either taking it's worst prediction or an average of its predictions seems more fair
> The judge made an exception in the Bulger case, a decision which annoyed a lot of people in the legal profession from what I've read.
Both Robert Thompson and John Venables have had their name changed subsequently though
Most of the people charged with killing poor Jodie Chesney cannot be named for the same reason. Got to be a problem this? Murderers age going through the floor
> @ydoethur said: > "The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ." is pretty special coming from an historian, even if not an ancient historian, and even from Cambridge. > > Septimus Severus, Emperor of Rome who died at York in 211 AD, was of mixed race. Indeed his great rival Clodius was distinguished from him by being called 'Albinus' - 'white one.' > > The date is wrong - the earliest Roman centurions (I think she probably meant 'legionaries') is wrong, but the sentiment is not.
I know that (and that he was called Septimius). Do dates not matter to modern historians? As in, Men first reached the moon on Apollo rockets centuries ago?"
> @eristdoof said: > > @viewcode said: > > > @viewcode said: > > > > > Interesting that senior cabinet ministers with reasonable numbers of endorsements - Hunt, Javid and Hancock - are not rated at all in the betting market. That makes this leadership election really unusual. Perhaps that's a reason for the favourite to win this time? > > > > > > > > > > The odds on Lib Coalition winning the Australian Federal Election at the moment the polls closed was 10% according to Australian Betfair. They won. > > > > > > > > > > I think it's time we took this "betting odds are predictive" malarky out behind the shed and shoot it. How many elections since 2010 has it gotten wrong? > > > > > > > > And how many has it got right? > > > > > > > > A 10% chance should come in 10% of the time, not never. > > > > A useful reminder, thank you. According to the paper I am currently reading that process is called "calibration", although I am not sure that's universal, as bookies, modellers and statisticians use different terminology. > > Indeed I think that Nate Silvers 30% chance that Trump wins was an excellent prediction, despite most people claiming he got it wrong.
When asked to give a percentage prediction just avoid 100% and 0% and you can never be wrong.
I know that (and that he was called Septimius). Do dates not matter to modern historians? As in, Men first reached the moon on Apollo rockets centuries ago?"
D'you mean classical historians? Modern historians are something altogether different.
> @ydoethur said: > If appearance was that important how come all our top politicians aren't catwalk models with film star looks? > > How come Blair and Cameron were despite their essential vacuity?
Duh? You really think that? Neither struck me as particularly handsome.
> @Benpointer said: > > @ydoethur said: > > > @ydoethur said: > > > > > I've met quite a few stupid people with Oxbridge degrees, although unlike Abbot most of them got to Oxbridge via their parents' wealth and an expensive public school. > > > > > > > > > > That is a fair point. > > > > > > > > > > But much though I dislike her, before her recent illness I have never heard suggestions Abbott was stupid. > > > > > > > > > > Racist, hypocritical, a bully, physically unpreposssing - yes. > > > > > > > > > > Stupid - no. > > > > > > > > > > Cambridge - I'm not going to be so dogmatic for Oxford - take them if they're very bright, or absolutely filthy rich. She wasn't the second. > > > > > > > > Physically unprepossessing? Wtf has that to do with anything? > > > > > > > > I'd have expected better from you @ydoethur > > > > I was listing the comments I had heard about her. > > > > Edit - incidentally, while i fully agree it shouldn't have anything to do with their political status, it does. How many people instinctively disliked Gordon Brown because of his jaw deformity? > > If appearance was that important how come all our top politicians aren't catwalk models with film star looks?
Charisma and intelligemce matters for politicians more than looks, film stars tend to need charisma and looks certainly if they want to be in the lead roles rather than character actors
> @Jonathan said: > Anecdotal. > > In my world the only Tory in my world people are talking about is Rory. “He’s too nice/good/bright to be Tory leader” they say.
Theresa May has really done him, and the other outsiders, a favour by stringing the process out by announcing her resignation in advance.
On the one hand we have Boris, Hunt, etc, with the same sterile arguments about renegotiation, no deal, no referendum, no confidence, on and on, ad nauseam, and then on the other hand you have Rory putting himself out there and being different and new.
Maybe enough MPs will decide that he's the sort of Hail Mary pass they're desperate enough for that he can get through to the members' ballot to crash and burn in spectacular style.
> "The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ." is pretty special coming from an historian, even if not an ancient historian, and even from Cambridge.
>
> Septimus Severus, Emperor of Rome who died at York in 211 AD, was of mixed race. Indeed his great rival Clodius was distinguished from him by being called 'Albinus' - 'white one.'
>
> The date is wrong - the earliest Roman centurions (I think she probably meant 'legionaries') is wrong, but the sentiment is not.
I know that (and that he was called Septimius). Do dates not matter to modern historians? As in, Men first reached the moon on Apollo rockets centuries ago?"
Reminds me of this.
The first rule of Renaissance Club is nobody is really sure when the meetings begin or end.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @Jonathan said: > > Anecdotal. > > > > In my world the only Tory in my world people are talking about is Rory. “He’s too nice/good/bright to be Tory leader” they say. > > Theresa May has really done him, and the other outsiders, a favour by stringing the process out by announcing her resignation in advance. > > On the one hand we have Boris, Hunt, etc, with the same sterile arguments about renegotiation, no deal, no referendum, no confidence, on and on, ad nauseam, and then on the other hand you have Rory putting himself out there and being different and new. > > Maybe enough MPs will decide that he's the sort of Hail Mary pass they're desperate enough for that he can get through to the members' ballot to crash and burn in spectacular style.
He's certainly standing out from the crowd.
I watched the first episode ot the Thatcher documentary a couple of nights ago... no one gave her much of a chance when she challenged Heath, and look what happened.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @Jonathan said: > > Anecdotal. > > > > In my world the only Tory in my world people are talking about is Rory. “He’s too nice/good/bright to be Tory leader” they say. > > Theresa May has really done him, and the other outsiders, a favour by stringing the process out by announcing her resignation in advance. > > On the one hand we have Boris, Hunt, etc, with the same sterile arguments about renegotiation, no deal, no referendum, no confidence, on and on, ad nauseam, and then on the other hand you have Rory putting himself out there and being different and new. > > Maybe enough MPs will decide that he's the sort of Hail Mary pass they're desperate enough for that he can get through to the members' ballot to crash and burn in spectacular style.
But if the future that we are heading towards is a socially conservative/nationalist party and a socially liberal/globalist one, isn't Rory making his pitch for future leadership to the wrong side?
Rubbish because most of the Tory vote went to the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party even won councils in that table like Tunbridge Wells that voted Remain not just Tory Leave areas.
It is refusing to leave the EU that would lead to Canada 1993 style wipeout for the Tories.
If the Tories deliver Brexit then the Brexit Party will collapse back to UKIP 2017 levels or at most UKIP 2015 levels and just be left with the ultra hardliners
> @ydoethur said: > Duh? You really think that? Neither struck me as particularly handsome. > > They looked the part. Howard and Miliband didn't. > > Yes, I am afraid I think the electorate is that shallow. > > Remember Campbell was deposed because he looked 'too old.'
> @Jonathan said: > Anecdotal. > > In my world the only Tory in my world people are talking about is Rory. “He’s too nice/good/bright to be Tory leader” they say.
In the next Tory leadership contest, probably after Boris, I predict he will be the frontrunner, or at least one of them.
> @HYUFD said: > > Rubbish because most of the Tory vote went to the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party even won councils in that table like Tunbridge Wells that voted Remain not just Tory Leave areas. > > It is refusing to leave the EU that would lead to Canada 1993 style wipeout for the Tories. > > If the Tories deliver Brexit then the Brexit Party will collapse back to UKIP 2017 levels or at most UKIP 2015 levels and just be left with the ultra hardliners ----------
The numbers don't lie. More of the Tory vote went to Remain parties in those places than to the Brexit Party.
> @Benpointer said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > @Jonathan said: > > > Anecdotal. > > > > > > In my world the only Tory in my world people are talking about is Rory. “He’s too nice/good/bright to be Tory leader” they say. > > > > Theresa May has really done him, and the other outsiders, a favour by stringing the process out by announcing her resignation in advance. > > > > On the one hand we have Boris, Hunt, etc, with the same sterile arguments about renegotiation, no deal, no referendum, no confidence, on and on, ad nauseam, and then on the other hand you have Rory putting himself out there and being different and new. > > > > Maybe enough MPs will decide that he's the sort of Hail Mary pass they're desperate enough for that he can get through to the members' ballot to crash and burn in spectacular style. > > He's certainly standing out from the crowd. > > I watched the first episode ot the Thatcher documentary a couple of nights ago... no one gave her much of a chance when she challenged Heath, and look what happened.
The documentary might have said no-one gave her a chance - that was not the reality. She would have won an even bigger majority in Oct 1978, even if that was before the Winter of Discontent.
I also like the way everyone on here says how much more gravitas the senior MPs had back then - simply not true. We diminish our own time too easily.
> @HYUFD said: > > @williamglenn said: > > Why becoming a hard Brexit party will lead to a Tory wipeout, in one table. > > > > https://twitter.com/PJHeneghan/status/1133732092066639873 > > Rubbish because most of the Tory vote went to the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party even won councils in that table like Tunbridge Wells that voted Remain not just Tory Leave areas. > > It is refusing to leave the EU that would lead to Canada 1993 style wipeout for the Tories. > > If the Tories deliver Brexit then the Brexit Party will collapse back to UKIP 2017 levels or at most UKIP 2015 levels and just be left with the ultra hardliners
But how do the Tories deliver Brexit? That is the £350m (a week) question?
> @HYUFD said: > > @williamglenn said: > > Why becoming a hard Brexit party will lead to a Tory wipeout, in one table. > > > > https://twitter.com/PJHeneghan/status/1133732092066639873 > > Rubbish because most of the Tory vote went to the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party even won councils in that table like Tunbridge Wells that voted Remain not just Tory Leave areas. > > It is refusing to leave the EU that would lead to Canada 1993 style wipeout for the Tories. > > If the Tories deliver Brexit then the Brexit Party will collapse back to UKIP 2017 levels or at most UKIP 2015 levels and just be left with the ultra hardliners
It makes me smile how you understand the ecological fallacy for the Conservatives but not for Labour.
> @another_richard said: > On the B&Q discussion: > > Buy the wood and a saw. > > Use the saw to cut the wood in the car park. > > Take the saw back for a refund.
That one passed me by - maybe because I have several really good saws at home and I was returning to town in the afternoon anyway and so I just took my saw along and dealt with the problem
> @williamglenn said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > Rubbish because most of the Tory vote went to the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party even won councils in that table like Tunbridge Wells that voted Remain not just Tory Leave areas. > > > > It is refusing to leave the EU that would lead to Canada 1993 style wipeout for the Tories. > > > > If the Tories deliver Brexit then the Brexit Party will collapse back to UKIP 2017 levels or at most UKIP 2015 levels and just be left with the ultra hardliners > ---------- > > The numbers don't lie. More of the Tory vote went to Remain parties in those places than to the Brexit Party.
Actually the numbers tell us over 50% of 2017 Tories who voted voted Brexit Party last week and only 12% voted LD
> @ydoethur said: > I know that (and that he was called Septimius). Do dates not matter to modern historians? As in, Men first reached the moon on Apollo rockets centuries ago?" > > D'you mean classical historians? Modern historians are something altogether different. > > Edit - and his name is spelled both ways.
Perhaps you are working towards the Most Patronising Poster of the Year award? I know what an ancient historian is because I am one (in the literal sense that I used to earn a living by knowing this stuff). I was assuming that both D Abbott, and you, identify as modern historians, and you appear equally lax about dating matters.
I have just searched the entire classical Latin corpus at https://latin.packhum.org without finding anyone calling him Septimus; but I was possibly a bit lax about covering all the possible inflections.
> @HYUFD said: > > Actually the numbers tell us over 50% of 2017 Tories who voted voted Brexit Party last week and only 12% voted LD ---------
You need to compare like-for-like with 2014, grouping UKIP and the Brexit Party, to get a true view. 2017 was an anomaly because its peculiar circumstances created a polarised two-party vote that doesn't reflect the underlying reality.
Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler?
Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler?
I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future.
> If the Tories deliver Brexit then the Brexit Party will collapse back to UKIP 2017 levels or at most UKIP 2015 levels and just be left with the ultra hardliners
When leavers still drew cocks on ballot papers last week and others still could not be arsed to turn out for the vote of their choosing they did not win anything like as well as they ought to have done. You said that was the case on here last Friday, I did not believe you and to that extent I was definitely wrong.
There will not be a second Referendum - there can't be. There could be another GE but there will have to be a coupon pact between Brexit and Con AND Cons who have voted the gov't out of office must not be allowed to stand as Cons.
There will also have to be a series of lectures to Brexit supporters that being a supporter means getting off your arse and actually voting. I guess GOTV is not overly necessary in Italy but it is essential here in the UK. Brexit need to invest some of their dosh on a sophisticated GOTV package because that is where the LDs beat them and the Cons hands down at the moment and would do in any GE.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment. > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430 > > > > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler? > > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future. > > It’s an outrage.
The case is hopeless. I don’t, however, see the outrage of stopping bare-faced lies issued in the hope of duping the public.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment. > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430 > > > > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler? > > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future. > > It’s an outrage.
It is crazy and nearly every politician, journalist and tv presenter could be caught up in similar cases if it is not prevented by the HOC
> Rubbish because most of the Tory vote went to the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party even won councils in that table like Tunbridge Wells that voted Remain not just Tory Leave areas.
>
> It is refusing to leave the EU that would lead to Canada 1993 style wipeout for the Tories.
>
> If the Tories deliver Brexit then the Brexit Party will collapse back to UKIP 2017 levels or at most UKIP 2015 levels and just be left with the ultra hardliners
----------
The numbers don't lie. More of the Tory vote went to Remain parties in those places than to the Brexit Party.
> Rubbish because most of the Tory vote went to the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party even won councils in that table like Tunbridge Wells that voted Remain not just Tory Leave areas.
>
> It is refusing to leave the EU that would lead to Canada 1993 style wipeout for the Tories.
>
> If the Tories deliver Brexit then the Brexit Party will collapse back to UKIP 2017 levels or at most UKIP 2015 levels and just be left with the ultra hardliners
----------
The numbers don't lie. More of the Tory vote went to Remain parties in those places than to the Brexit Party.
Leave them to be deluded, let them believe what they want to believe. I have decided it’s not worth arguing with both corbyn left and Farage right.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment. > > > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430 > > > > > > > > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler? > > > > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future. > > > > It’s an outrage. > > It is crazy and nearly every politician, journalist and tv presenter could be caught up in similar cases if it is not prevent by the HOC
Or the courts themselves. A higher court should dismiss this.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment. > > > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430 > > > > > > > > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler? > > > > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future. > > > > It’s an outrage. > > The case is hopeless. I don’t, however, see the outrage of stopping bare-faced lies issued in the hope of duping the public.
Except that it was a factually correct gross figure, not a bare-faced lie.
> @kle4 said: > The case taken against Boris could raise many questions > > First among them being 'how much will this have helped not hindered his chances in the race to be PM?'
He has already made a full on attack on the remainers and democracy
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment. > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430 > > > > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler? > > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future. > > It’s an outrage.
Nobody is above the law. Misconduct in public office is a serious offence and I have every confidence in the legal process testing the alleged actions in a fair and balanced way. Politicians have a bad reputation with the public for the difference between what they promise and deliver. If they misrepresent something they should be held to account as anybody else in any other job would be....
> Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler?
>
> I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future.
>
> It’s an outrage.
The case is hopeless. I don’t, however, see the outrage of stopping bare-faced lies issued in the hope of duping the public.
It should in no way be a criminal matter.
We are not a banana republic.
Very dangerous precedent that needs to be strangled at birth.
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > > > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430 > > > > > > > > > > > > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler? > > > > > > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future. > > > > > > It’s an outrage. > > > > The case is hopeless. I don’t, however, see the outrage of stopping bare-faced lies issued in the hope of duping the public. > > Except that it was a factually correct gross figure, not a bare-faced lie.
I love the fact that three years after it lost them the referendum, remainers are still banging on about how much we give the EU without getting anything back in return - is it 350m or 240m? Either way, it's a lot.
Still waiting for someone to make a positive case for the EU instead of quibbling over exactly how much they cost us...
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > > > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430 > > > > > > > > > > > > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler? > > > > > > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future. > > > > > > It’s an outrage. > > > > The case is hopeless. I don’t, however, see the outrage of stopping bare-faced lies issued in the hope of duping the public. > > It should in no way be a criminal matter. > > We are not a banana republic. > > Very dangerous precedent that needs to be strangled at birth.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > > > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430 > > > > > > > > > > > > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler? > > > > > > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future. > > > > > > It’s an outrage. > > > > The case is hopeless. I don’t, however, see the outrage of stopping bare-faced lies issued in the hope of duping the public. > > It should in no way be a criminal matter. > > We are not a banana republic. > > Very dangerous precedent that needs to be strangled at birth.
> @IanB2 said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > @Jonathan said: > > > Anecdotal. > > > > > > In my world the only Tory in my world people are talking about is Rory. “He’s too nice/good/bright to be Tory leader” they say. > > > > Theresa May has really done him, and the other outsiders, a favour by stringing the process out by announcing her resignation in advance. > > > > On the one hand we have Boris, Hunt, etc, with the same sterile arguments about renegotiation, no deal, no referendum, no confidence, on and on, ad nauseam, and then on the other hand you have Rory putting himself out there and being different and new. > > > > Maybe enough MPs will decide that he's the sort of Hail Mary pass they're desperate enough for that he can get through to the members' ballot to crash and burn in spectacular style. > > But if the future that we are heading towards is a socially conservative/nationalist party and a socially liberal/globalist one, isn't Rory making his pitch for future leadership to the wrong side?
Well that depends on whether you believe that future is heading our way due to inevitable laws of nature, or due to the actions of people. If the latter then people like Rory are capable of creating a different future.
> @viewcode said: > > @viewcode said: > > > Interesting that senior cabinet ministers with reasonable numbers of endorsements - Hunt, Javid and Hancock - are not rated at all in the betting market. That makes this leadership election really unusual. Perhaps that's a reason for the favourite to win this time? > > > > > > The odds on Lib Coalition winning the Australian Federal Election at the moment the polls closed was 10% according to Australian Betfair. They won. > > > > > > I think it's time we took this "betting odds are predictive" malarky out behind the shed and shoot it. How many elections since 2010 has it gotten wrong? > > > > And how many has it got right? > > > > A 10% chance should come in 10% of the time, not never. > > A useful reminder, thank you. According to the paper I am currently reading that process is called "calibration", although I am not sure that's universal, as bookies, modellers and statisticians use different terminology.
Indeed. If you play dice games you may think that rolling "snakes eyes" is 'very unlucky', but it will happen 1/36th of the time. In a game where you roll dice 100 times, you'll roll snake eyes an average of 3 times. So when it happens that's not unlucky its just randomly due and you ignore the remaining 97 times it didn't happen.
> > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler?
>
> >
>
> > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future.
>
> >
>
> > It’s an outrage.
>
>
>
> The case is hopeless. I don’t, however, see the outrage of stopping bare-faced lies issued in the hope of duping the public.
>
> It should in no way be a criminal matter.
>
> We are not a banana republic.
>
> Very dangerous precedent that needs to be strangled at birth.
> @A_View_From_Cumbria5 said: > > > If the Tories deliver Brexit then the Brexit Party will collapse back to UKIP 2017 levels or at most UKIP 2015 levels and just be left with the ultra hardliners > > When leavers still drew cocks on ballot papers last week and others still could not be arsed to turn out for the vote of their choosing they did not win anything like as well as they ought to have done. You said that was the case on here last Friday, I did not believe you and to that extent I was definitely wrong. > > There will not be a second Referendum - there can't be. There could be another GE but there will have to be a coupon pact between Brexit and Con AND Cons who have voted the gov't out of office must not be allowed to stand as Cons. > > There will also have to be a series of lectures to Brexit supporters that being a supporter means getting off your arse and actually voting. I guess GOTV is not overly necessary in Italy but it is essential here in the UK. Brexit need to invest some of their dosh on a sophisticated GOTV package because that is where the LDs beat them and the Cons hands down at the moment and would do in any GE.
Even if LDs have a higher turnout than Brexit Party voters on a 35% turnout last week the Brexit Party won over 400 local authority areas, a clear majority, so would sweep up under FPTP if we are still in the EU by the next general election
Good to see that Leavers are huffing and puffing to be allowed to lie without consequence. I’m not sure that’s going to be very saleable to the general public.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > > > > > > > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler? > > > > > > > > > > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future. > > > > > > > > > > It’s an outrage. > > > > > > > > The case is hopeless. I don’t, however, see the outrage of stopping bare-faced lies issued in the hope of duping the public. > > > > It should in no way be a criminal matter. > > > > We are not a banana republic. > > > > Very dangerous precedent that needs to be strangled at birth. > > How dare the public be denied fake news!
How date the public be denied free speech?
Quoting factually accurate gross figures is not "fake news" and who is the arbiter to determine what is acceptable and what isn't?
> > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler?
> >
> > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future.
> >
> > It’s an outrage.
>
> The case is hopeless. I don’t, however, see the outrage of stopping bare-faced lies issued in the hope of duping the public.
Except that it was a factually correct gross figure, not a bare-faced lie.
Oh come on! They never said this is the gross figure. I agree that election promises should not be criminalized but continuing to repeat outright lies may be another matter.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > > > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430 > > > > > > > > > > > > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler? > > > > > > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future. > > > > > > It’s an outrage. > > > > The case is hopeless. I don’t, however, see the outrage of stopping bare-faced lies issued in the hope of duping the public. > > It should in no way be a criminal matter. > > We are not a banana republic. > > Very dangerous precedent that needs to be strangled at birth.
I am sorry I don't agree. If a police officer or any other public official misleads the public they will suffer consequences. If the remain side politicians had contrived to misled in the same way as Johnson they should be prosecuted as well. Politicians need to be held to the standard the law dictates.
> @The_Taxman said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment. > > > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430 > > > > > > > > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler? > > > > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future. > > > > It’s an outrage. > > Nobody is above the law. Misconduct in public office is a serious offence and I have every confidence in the legal process testing the alleged actions in a fair and balanced way. Politicians have a bad reputation with the public for the difference between what they promise and deliver. If they misrepresent something they should be held to account as anybody else in any other job would be....
Grab a straw poll of people and ask them what "misconduct in public office" means.
My guess is that most would say it is something like embezzlement of public funds. A few might say it is fiddling your expenses. Or fiddling your secretary. Or bringing rent boys back to the office.
I guarantee you that nobody will say it means "using a gross figure when determining how much the country pays to a supranational authority as part of a membership fee".
Ask those people again what the punishment for "misconduct in public office" should be and the response will probably be "it's a sacking offence" "automatic recall" or even "punishment under the relevant legislation, if a crime has been committed" (rather than seeing it as a crime itself).
The idea that we can start locking up politicians for telling "lies" is absurd and Orwellian. The correct way to punish politicians who lie is through the ballot box. Anything else sets a dangerous - nay, terrifying - precedent.
My own view on the Boris case seems to be similar to the ones above: it's pointless, a waste of time, will be counter-productive, and if by some miracle it was to win, would become an 'interesting' precedent.
> @A_View_From_Cumbria5 said: > > @Benpointer said: > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > @Jonathan said: > > > > Anecdotal. > > > > > > > > In my world the only Tory in my world people are talking about is Rory. “He’s too nice/good/bright to be Tory leader” they say. > > > > > > Theresa May has really done him, and the other outsiders, a favour by stringing the process out by announcing her resignation in advance. > > > > > > On the one hand we have Boris, Hunt, etc, with the same sterile arguments about renegotiation, no deal, no referendum, no confidence, on and on, ad nauseam, and then on the other hand you have Rory putting himself out there and being different and new. > > > > > > Maybe enough MPs will decide that he's the sort of Hail Mary pass they're desperate enough for that he can get through to the members' ballot to crash and burn in spectacular style. > > > > He's certainly standing out from the crowd. > > > > I watched the first episode ot the Thatcher documentary a couple of nights ago... no one gave her much of a chance when she challenged Heath, and look what happened. > > The documentary might have said no-one gave her a chance - that was not the reality. She would have won an even bigger majority in Oct 1978, even if that was before the Winter of Discontent. > > I also like the way everyone on here says how much more gravitas the senior MPs had back then - simply not true. We diminish our own time too easily. ______
It appears that there was a right-wing plot to instal Thatcher in 1975. The moderates by comparison were poorly prepared. I don't think there's a coup underway to instal Stewart. If there is, it's extremely well-concealed for what is a social media age ...
> @AlastairMeeks said: > Good to see that Leavers are huffing and puffing to be allowed to lie without consequence. I’m not sure that’s going to be very saleable to the general public.
I am more concerned about the wider implications of this for everyone in public life
So those prosecuting Boris while he campaigns to be PM are making an outrageous claim with the figure £350m in it which is manifestly untrue, but whose effect irrespective of its truth or falsity is to confuse and pervert public discourse at a critical juncture in the affairs of the country.
Good to see that Leavers are huffing and puffing to be allowed to lie without consequence. I’m not sure that’s going to be very saleable to the general public.
If I’m honest, Alastair, I’m very surprised to see you taking the position you have on this; I can only assume out of anger over the original Leave campaign itself.
There are ultra hard Remainers - like Jo Maugham QC - who have added their voices to concerns over this today, and underlined that political sanctions should be the punishment and not the criminal law.
I’d have thought, as someone with a firm legal background and strong morals, that you’d be the same.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > Good to see that Leavers are huffing and puffing to be allowed to lie without consequence. I’m not sure that’s going to be very saleable to the general public. > > I am more concerned about the wider implications of this for everyone in public life
Lots of people get criminally punished for lying for profit. Fraud, it’s usually called.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > Good to see that Leavers are huffing and puffing to be allowed to lie without consequence. I’m not sure that’s going to be very saleable to the general public.
I'm glad to see how relaxed you are about the courts being used to harass one's political opponents.
> Indeed. If you play dice games you may think that rolling "snakes eyes" is 'very unlucky', but it will happen 1/36th of the time. In a game where you roll dice 100 times, you'll roll snake eyes an average of 3 times. So when it happens that's not unlucky its just randomly due and you ignore the remaining 97 times it didn't happen.
More interesting is that the probability of not rolling snake eyes at all in 100 times is 0.06, or more likely than 1-in-17, so that Friday when your mate doesn't roll snake eyes in 100 rolls you begin to suspect him of using crooked dice because you don't understand that probability is more than averages...
> > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler?
>
> >
>
> > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future.
>
> >
>
> > It’s an outrage.
>
>
>
> The case is hopeless. I don’t, however, see the outrage of stopping bare-faced lies issued in the hope of duping the public.
>
> It should in no way be a criminal matter.
>
> We are not a banana republic.
>
> Very dangerous precedent that needs to be strangled at birth.
How dare the public be denied fake news!
I hold no candle for Johnson. Both my book and my conscience would love it if he were to never hold public office again.
But, the way to do that is through politics. Not the criminal law.
> > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler?
>
> >
>
> > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future.
>
> >
>
> > It’s an outrage.
>
>
>
> The case is hopeless. I don’t, however, see the outrage of stopping bare-faced lies issued in the hope of duping the public.
>
> It should in no way be a criminal matter.
>
> We are not a banana republic.
>
> Very dangerous precedent that needs to be strangled at birth.
I am sorry I don't agree. If a police officer or any other public official misleads the public they will suffer consequences. If the remain side politicians had contrived to misled in the same way as Johnson they should be prosecuted as well. Politicians need to be held to the standard the law dictates.
Should Blair and his henchman Campbell be prosecuted for lying to us about Iraq?
> @Casino_Royale said: > Good to see that Leavers are huffing and puffing to be allowed to lie without consequence. I’m not sure that’s going to be very saleable to the general public. > > If I’m honest, Alastair, I’m very surprised to see you taking the position you have on this; I can only assume out of anger over the original Leave campaign itself. > > There are ultra hard Remainers - like Jo Maugham QC - who have added their voices to concerns over this today, and underlined that political sanctions should be the punishment and not the criminal law. > > I’d have thought, as someone with a firm legal background and strong morals, that you’d be the same.
Strong morals require that lying for profit has consequences. All I see is Leavers saying that lying for profit for a cause they approve of should be given a free pass.
Not a bad day for me on the Tory race. I managed to lay both Boris and Leadsom at near their low points (c.2.8 and c.6.6 respectively) so am now as nowhere near as underwater as I was on the overall market two days ago.
Genuine question; do we actually know if Blair deliberately lied to Parliament to get support for the Iraq War or was it was just poor intelligence? Facts only please.
> Good to see that Leavers are huffing and puffing to be allowed to lie without consequence. I’m not sure that’s going to be very saleable to the general public.
>
> If I’m honest, Alastair, I’m very surprised to see you taking the position you have on this; I can only assume out of anger over the original Leave campaign itself.
>
> There are ultra hard Remainers - like Jo Maugham QC - who have added their voices to concerns over this today, and underlined that political sanctions should be the punishment and not the criminal law.
>
> I’d have thought, as someone with a firm legal background and strong morals, that you’d be the same.
Strong morals require that lying for profit has consequences. All I see is Leavers saying that lying for profit for a cause they approve of should be given a free pass.
> > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler?
>
> >
>
> > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future.
>
> >
>
> > It’s an outrage.
>
>
>
> The case is hopeless. I don’t, however, see the outrage of stopping bare-faced lies issued in the hope of duping the public.
>
> It should in no way be a criminal matter.
>
> We are not a banana republic.
>
> Very dangerous precedent that needs to be strangled at birth.
I am sorry I don't agree. If a police officer or any other public official misleads the public they will suffer consequences. If the remain side politicians had contrived to misled in the same way as Johnson they should be prosecuted as well. Politicians need to be held to the standard the law dictates.
Should Blair and his henchman Campbell be prosecuted for lying to us about Iraq?
Was there not an enquiry which looked into this, what were they deemed to have lied about?
> Good to see that Leavers are huffing and puffing to be allowed to lie without consequence. I’m not sure that’s going to be very saleable to the general public.
>
> If I’m honest, Alastair, I’m very surprised to see you taking the position you have on this; I can only assume out of anger over the original Leave campaign itself.
>
> There are ultra hard Remainers - like Jo Maugham QC - who have added their voices to concerns over this today, and underlined that political sanctions should be the punishment and not the criminal law.
>
> I’d have thought, as someone with a firm legal background and strong morals, that you’d be the same.
Strong morals require that lying for profit has consequences. All I see is Leavers saying that lying for profit for a cause they approve of should be given a free pass.
I'm not a leaver, and think the original claims on the NHS were stupid, but also realise that it was made during a political campaign. I hope Boris wins this.
BTW, I hope that the guy bringing this case has properly accounted for the £200,000 he crowdfunded. He'd be stupid not to have ...
> @Gallowgate said: > Genuine question; do we actually know if Blair deliberately lied to Parliament to get support for the Iraq War or was it was just poor intelligence? Facts only please.
He said in the foreword to his dossier:
“I believe that the assessed intelligence has established beyond doubt... that Saddam has continued to produce chemical and biological weapons...”
No honest man could have believed that on the evidence available.
> @kyf_100 said: > > @The_Taxman said: > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > > > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430 > > > > > > > > > > > > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler? > > > > > > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future. > > > > > > It’s an outrage. > > > > Nobody is above the law. Misconduct in public office is a serious offence and I have every confidence in the legal process testing the alleged actions in a fair and balanced way. Politicians have a bad reputation with the public for the difference between what they promise and deliver. If they misrepresent something they should be held to account as anybody else in any other job would be.... > > Grab a straw poll of people and ask them what "misconduct in public office" means. > > My guess is that most would say it is something like embezzlement of public funds. A few might say it is fiddling your expenses. Or fiddling your secretary. Or bringing rent boys back to the office. > > I guarantee you that nobody will say it means "using a gross figure when determining how much the country pays to a supranational authority as part of a membership fee". > > Ask those people again what the punishment for "misconduct in public office" should be and the response will probably be "it's a sacking offence" "automatic recall" or even "punishment under the relevant legislation, if a crime has been committed" (rather than seeing it as a crime itself). > > The idea that we can start locking up politicians for telling "lies" is absurd and Orwellian. The correct way to punish politicians who lie is through the ballot box. Anything else sets a dangerous - nay, terrifying - precedent.
I am sorry I don't agree. Politicians are in a privileged position in which they determine how the population live their lives. If politicians are misleading the population and deliberately distorting things for their own gain, the politicians in question need to be held to account. Politicians are intelligent enough to know when they are sailing close to the wind and if the possibility of being prosecuted deters misleading claims this is a good thing. Normally a politician is held to account in a democratic way. A referendum campaign runs outside of the normal constraining mechanisms of parliament for instance or the London assembly. I think it is a good thing politicians can be held to account in a legal context and this applies to either side of the political debate.
> > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler?
>
> >
>
> > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future.
>
> >
>
> > It’s an outrage.
>
>
>
> The case is hopeless. I don’t, however, see the outrage of stopping bare-faced lies issued in the hope of duping the public.
>
> It should in no way be a criminal matter.
>
> We are not a banana republic.
>
> Very dangerous precedent that needs to be strangled at birth.
I am sorry I don't agree. If a police officer or any other public official misleads the public they will suffer consequences. If the remain side politicians had contrived to misled in the same way as Johnson they should be prosecuted as well. Politicians need to be held to the standard the law dictates.
Corruption in public office by a trusted public official is a serious charge.
But politicians use anecdotes, selective quotation of facts and emotional rhetoric to win votes, the choice of which is the electorate’s. They are then held accountable for their performance accordingly in office, and live or die by it.
On your test you could prosecute almost every politician who’s ever run for office.
Comments
> > @viewcode said:
>
> > Interesting that senior cabinet ministers with reasonable numbers of endorsements - Hunt, Javid and Hancock - are not rated at all in the betting market. That makes this leadership election really unusual. Perhaps that's a reason for the favourite to win this time?
>
> >
>
> > The odds on Lib Coalition winning the Australian Federal Election at the moment the polls closed was 10% according to Australian Betfair. They won.
>
> >
>
> > I think it's time we took this "betting odds are predictive" malarky out behind the shed and shoot it. How many elections since 2010 has it gotten wrong?
>
>
>
> And how many has it got right?
>
>
>
> A 10% chance should come in 10% of the time, not never.
>
> A useful reminder, thank you. According to the paper I am currently reading that process is called "calibration", although I am not sure that's universal, as bookies, modellers and statisticians use different terminology.
Indeed I think that Nate Silvers 30% chance that Trump wins was an excellent prediction, despite most people claiming he got it wrong.
Edit - incidentally, while i fully agree it shouldn't have anything to do with their political status, it does. How many people instinctively disliked Gordon Brown because of his jaw deformity?
> > @Benpointer said:
> > Take the 2nd entry: Mid Devon. Is a 24% increase in Remain parties vote bigger than the 13% increase in BP/UKIP?
>
> Yes it is.
>
> Compare 2014:
>
> https://www.middevon.gov.uk/media/114905/european-election-2014-declaration-of-results.pdf
>
> With 2019:
>
> https://www.middevon.gov.uk/your-council/voting-elections/2019-elections/european-parliamentary-elections/
Thank you - my misunderstanding. I thought 24% meant an increase of 24% in the LD/Green/etc. vote (which would have been totally meaningless).
But I was clearly wrong - which probably explains why nobody else has pointed it out lol!
> Indeed I think that Nate Silvers 30% chance that Trump wins was an excellent prediction, despite most people claiming he got it wrong.
Only a quarter of people have a good grasp of probability. The other half are totally clueless.
The date is wrong - the earliest Roman centurions (I think she probably meant 'legionaries') arrived in 55 BC, and more permanently in 43AD, but the sentiment is not.
> Edit - incidentally, while i fully agree it shouldn't have anything to do with their political status, it does. How many people instinctively disliked Gordon Brown because of his jaw deformity?
Didn't know he had one.
> > @ydoethur said:
>
> > I've met quite a few stupid people with Oxbridge degrees, although unlike Abbot most of them got to Oxbridge via their parents' wealth and an expensive public school.
>
> >
>
> > That is a fair point.
>
> >
>
> > But much though I dislike her, before her recent illness I have never heard suggestions Abbott was stupid.
>
> >
>
> > Racist, hypocritical, a bully, physically unpreposssing - yes.
>
> >
>
> > Stupid - no.
>
> >
>
> > Cambridge - I'm not going to be so dogmatic for Oxford - take them if they're very bright, or absolutely filthy rich. She wasn't the second.
>
>
>
> Physically unprepossessing? Wtf has that to do with anything?
>
>
>
> I'd have expected better from you @ydoethur
>
> I was listing the comments I had heard about her.
>
> Edit - incidentally, while i fully agree it shouldn't have anything to do with their political status, it does. How many people instinctively disliked Gordon Brown because of his jaw deformity?
If appearance was that important how come all our top politicians aren't catwalk models with film star looks?
> > @isam said:
> > Pardon my ignorance, but why can’t the killer be named? Under 18 yes, but weren’t the boys who killed little James Bulger?
> >
> > https://twitter.com/romfordrecorder/status/1133774820104134658
>
> The judge made an exception in the Bulger case, a decision which annoyed a lot of people in the legal profession from what I've read.
Both Robert Thompson and John Venables have had their name changed subsequently though
> > @viewcode said:
> > > @viewcode said:
> >
> > > Interesting that senior cabinet ministers with reasonable numbers of endorsements - Hunt, Javid and Hancock - are not rated at all in the betting market. That makes this leadership election really unusual. Perhaps that's a reason for the favourite to win this time?
> >
> > >
> >
> > > The odds on Lib Coalition winning the Australian Federal Election at the moment the polls closed was 10% according to Australian Betfair. They won.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I think it's time we took this "betting odds are predictive" malarky out behind the shed and shoot it. How many elections since 2010 has it gotten wrong?
> >
> >
> >
> > And how many has it got right?
> >
> >
> >
> > A 10% chance should come in 10% of the time, not never.
> >
> > A useful reminder, thank you. According to the paper I am currently reading that process is called "calibration", although I am not sure that's universal, as bookies, modellers and statisticians use different terminology.
>
> Indeed I think that Nate Silvers 30% chance that Trump wins was an excellent prediction, despite most people claiming he got it wrong.
Likewise, though I think it's unfair to only rate a model on its final prediction. Either taking it's worst prediction or an average of its predictions seems more fair
If there's any justice in the world Armenia qualify for Euro 2020 and some of their matches are in Baku.
Arsenal fans wearing Henrikh Mkhitaryan shirts stopped by police in Baku 'for their safety'
https://news.sky.com/story/arsenal-fans-wearing-henrikh-mkhitaryan-shirts-stopped-by-police-in-baku-for-their-safety-11730908
> "The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ." is pretty special coming from an historian, even if not an ancient historian, and even from Cambridge.
>
> Septimus Severus, Emperor of Rome who died at York in 211 AD, was of mixed race. Indeed his great rival Clodius was distinguished from him by being called 'Albinus' - 'white one.'
>
> The date is wrong - the earliest Roman centurions (I think she probably meant 'legionaries') is wrong, but the sentiment is not.
I know that (and that he was called Septimius). Do dates not matter to modern historians? As in, Men first reached the moon on Apollo rockets centuries ago?"
> > @viewcode said:
> > > @viewcode said:
> >
> > > Interesting that senior cabinet ministers with reasonable numbers of endorsements - Hunt, Javid and Hancock - are not rated at all in the betting market. That makes this leadership election really unusual. Perhaps that's a reason for the favourite to win this time?
> >
> > >
> >
> > > The odds on Lib Coalition winning the Australian Federal Election at the moment the polls closed was 10% according to Australian Betfair. They won.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I think it's time we took this "betting odds are predictive" malarky out behind the shed and shoot it. How many elections since 2010 has it gotten wrong?
> >
> >
> >
> > And how many has it got right?
> >
> >
> >
> > A 10% chance should come in 10% of the time, not never.
> >
> > A useful reminder, thank you. According to the paper I am currently reading that process is called "calibration", although I am not sure that's universal, as bookies, modellers and statisticians use different terminology.
>
> Indeed I think that Nate Silvers 30% chance that Trump wins was an excellent prediction, despite most people claiming he got it wrong.
When asked to give a percentage prediction just avoid 100% and 0% and you can never be wrong.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Latest endorsements from Tory MPs:
> >
> > https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0
>
> Interesting - a very wide geographic support for Boris, given that we keep being told here that his charm doesn't work outside the M25.....
Surely the MPs are inside the M25.
Edit - and his name is spelled both ways.
> > @Benpointer said:
>
> > Take the 2nd entry: Mid Devon. Is a 24% increase in Remain parties vote bigger than the 13% increase in BP/UKIP?
>
>
>
> Yes it is.
>
>
>
> Compare 2014:
>
>
>
> https://www.middevon.gov.uk/media/114905/european-election-2014-declaration-of-results.pdf
>
>
>
> With 2019:
>
>
>
> https://www.middevon.gov.uk/your-council/voting-elections/2019-elections/european-parliamentary-elections/
>
> What would happen at the next GE if Labour put revoke in their manifesto, and the Tories picked a Remain PM?
The Brexit Party would win
> If appearance was that important how come all our top politicians aren't catwalk models with film star looks?
>
> How come Blair and Cameron were despite their essential vacuity?
Duh? You really think that? Neither struck me as particularly handsome.
> > @ydoethur said:
> > > @ydoethur said:
> >
> > > I've met quite a few stupid people with Oxbridge degrees, although unlike Abbot most of them got to Oxbridge via their parents' wealth and an expensive public school.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > That is a fair point.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > But much though I dislike her, before her recent illness I have never heard suggestions Abbott was stupid.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Racist, hypocritical, a bully, physically unpreposssing - yes.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Stupid - no.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Cambridge - I'm not going to be so dogmatic for Oxford - take them if they're very bright, or absolutely filthy rich. She wasn't the second.
> >
> >
> >
> > Physically unprepossessing? Wtf has that to do with anything?
> >
> >
> >
> > I'd have expected better from you @ydoethur
> >
> > I was listing the comments I had heard about her.
> >
> > Edit - incidentally, while i fully agree it shouldn't have anything to do with their political status, it does. How many people instinctively disliked Gordon Brown because of his jaw deformity?
>
> If appearance was that important how come all our top politicians aren't catwalk models with film star looks?
Charisma and intelligemce matters for politicians more than looks, film stars tend to need charisma and looks certainly if they want to be in the lead roles rather than character actors
> > @isam said:
> > > @Benpointer said:
> >
> > > Take the 2nd entry: Mid Devon. Is a 24% increase in Remain parties vote bigger than the 13% increase in BP/UKIP?
> >
> >
> >
> > Yes it is.
> >
> >
> >
> > Compare 2014:
> >
> >
> >
> > https://www.middevon.gov.uk/media/114905/european-election-2014-declaration-of-results.pdf
> >
> >
> >
> > With 2019:
> >
> >
> >
> > https://www.middevon.gov.uk/your-council/voting-elections/2019-elections/european-parliamentary-elections/
> >
> > What would happen at the next GE if Labour put revoke in their manifesto, and the Tories picked a Remain PM?
>
> The Brexit Party would win
They would need to gather the votes of more than the 11% of the electorate they managed in last week's election, to do so.
> Anecdotal.
>
> In my world the only Tory in my world people are talking about is Rory. “He’s too nice/good/bright to be Tory leader” they say.
Theresa May has really done him, and the other outsiders, a favour by stringing the process out by announcing her resignation in advance.
On the one hand we have Boris, Hunt, etc, with the same sterile arguments about renegotiation, no deal, no referendum, no confidence, on and on, ad nauseam, and then on the other hand you have Rory putting himself out there and being different and new.
Maybe enough MPs will decide that he's the sort of Hail Mary pass they're desperate enough for that he can get through to the members' ballot to crash and burn in spectacular style.
The first rule of Renaissance Club is nobody is really sure when the meetings begin or end.
> > @Jonathan said:
> > Anecdotal.
> >
> > In my world the only Tory in my world people are talking about is Rory. “He’s too nice/good/bright to be Tory leader” they say.
>
> Theresa May has really done him, and the other outsiders, a favour by stringing the process out by announcing her resignation in advance.
>
> On the one hand we have Boris, Hunt, etc, with the same sterile arguments about renegotiation, no deal, no referendum, no confidence, on and on, ad nauseam, and then on the other hand you have Rory putting himself out there and being different and new.
>
> Maybe enough MPs will decide that he's the sort of Hail Mary pass they're desperate enough for that he can get through to the members' ballot to crash and burn in spectacular style.
He's certainly standing out from the crowd.
I watched the first episode ot the Thatcher documentary a couple of nights ago... no one gave her much of a chance when she challenged Heath, and look what happened.
> > @Jonathan said:
> > Anecdotal.
> >
> > In my world the only Tory in my world people are talking about is Rory. “He’s too nice/good/bright to be Tory leader” they say.
>
> Theresa May has really done him, and the other outsiders, a favour by stringing the process out by announcing her resignation in advance.
>
> On the one hand we have Boris, Hunt, etc, with the same sterile arguments about renegotiation, no deal, no referendum, no confidence, on and on, ad nauseam, and then on the other hand you have Rory putting himself out there and being different and new.
>
> Maybe enough MPs will decide that he's the sort of Hail Mary pass they're desperate enough for that he can get through to the members' ballot to crash and burn in spectacular style.
But if the future that we are heading towards is a socially conservative/nationalist party and a socially liberal/globalist one, isn't Rory making his pitch for future leadership to the wrong side?
Yes, I am afraid I think the electorate is that shallow.
Remember Campbell was deposed because he looked 'too old.'
> Why becoming a hard Brexit party will lead to a Tory wipeout, in one table.
>
> https://twitter.com/PJHeneghan/status/1133732092066639873
Rubbish because most of the Tory vote went to the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party even won councils in that table like Tunbridge Wells that voted Remain not just Tory Leave areas.
It is refusing to leave the EU that would lead to Canada 1993 style wipeout for the Tories.
If the Tories deliver Brexit then the Brexit Party will collapse back to UKIP 2017 levels or at most UKIP 2015 levels and just be left with the ultra hardliners
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > @isam said:
>
> > > > @Benpointer said:
>
> > >
>
> > > > Take the 2nd entry: Mid Devon. Is a 24% increase in Remain parties vote bigger than the 13% increase in BP/UKIP?
>
> Yes it is.
>
> Compare 2014:
>
> https://www.middevon.gov.uk/media/114905/european-election-2014-declaration-of-results.pdf
>
> With 2019:
>
> https://www.middevon.gov.uk/your-council/voting-elections/2019-elections/european-parliamentary-elections/
>
> > > What would happen at the next GE if Labour put revoke in their manifesto, and the Tories picked a Remain PM?
>
> > The Brexit Party would win
>
>
>
> They would need to gather the votes of more than the 11% of the electorate they managed in last week's election, to do so.
>
> What % of the electorate has been needed in the past?
Good question. I'd guess 22-25% allowing for turnout, so double what TBP gathered.
Sunil will have the answer I expect.
> Duh? You really think that? Neither struck me as particularly handsome.
>
> They looked the part. Howard and Miliband didn't.
>
> Yes, I am afraid I think the electorate is that shallow.
>
> Remember Campbell was deposed because he looked 'too old.'
Explains why Trump won I guess. Oh...
https://mobile.twitter.com/hard4hancock
> Anecdotal.
>
> In my world the only Tory in my world people are talking about is Rory. “He’s too nice/good/bright to be Tory leader” they say.
In the next Tory leadership contest, probably after Boris, I predict he will be the frontrunner, or at least one of them.
>
> Rubbish because most of the Tory vote went to the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party even won councils in that table like Tunbridge Wells that voted Remain not just Tory Leave areas.
>
> It is refusing to leave the EU that would lead to Canada 1993 style wipeout for the Tories.
>
> If the Tories deliver Brexit then the Brexit Party will collapse back to UKIP 2017 levels or at most UKIP 2015 levels and just be left with the ultra hardliners
----------
The numbers don't lie. More of the Tory vote went to Remain parties in those places than to the Brexit Party.
Buy the wood and a saw.
Use the saw to cut the wood in the car park.
Take the saw back for a refund.
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> > > Anecdotal.
> > >
> > > In my world the only Tory in my world people are talking about is Rory. “He’s too nice/good/bright to be Tory leader” they say.
> >
> > Theresa May has really done him, and the other outsiders, a favour by stringing the process out by announcing her resignation in advance.
> >
> > On the one hand we have Boris, Hunt, etc, with the same sterile arguments about renegotiation, no deal, no referendum, no confidence, on and on, ad nauseam, and then on the other hand you have Rory putting himself out there and being different and new.
> >
> > Maybe enough MPs will decide that he's the sort of Hail Mary pass they're desperate enough for that he can get through to the members' ballot to crash and burn in spectacular style.
>
> He's certainly standing out from the crowd.
>
> I watched the first episode ot the Thatcher documentary a couple of nights ago... no one gave her much of a chance when she challenged Heath, and look what happened.
The documentary might have said no-one gave her a chance - that was not the reality. She would have won an even bigger majority in Oct 1978, even if that was before the Winter of Discontent.
I also like the way everyone on here says how much more gravitas the senior MPs had back then - simply not true. We diminish our own time too easily.
> &
> Explains why Trump won I guess. Oh...
>
> From his point of view helpfully, he was up against Hilary Clinton.
And the electoral college rules!
> > @williamglenn said:
> > Why becoming a hard Brexit party will lead to a Tory wipeout, in one table.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/PJHeneghan/status/1133732092066639873
>
> Rubbish because most of the Tory vote went to the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party even won councils in that table like Tunbridge Wells that voted Remain not just Tory Leave areas.
>
> It is refusing to leave the EU that would lead to Canada 1993 style wipeout for the Tories.
>
> If the Tories deliver Brexit then the Brexit Party will collapse back to UKIP 2017 levels or at most UKIP 2015 levels and just be left with the ultra hardliners
But how do the Tories deliver Brexit? That is the £350m (a week) question?
> > @williamglenn said:
> > Why becoming a hard Brexit party will lead to a Tory wipeout, in one table.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/PJHeneghan/status/1133732092066639873
>
> Rubbish because most of the Tory vote went to the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party even won councils in that table like Tunbridge Wells that voted Remain not just Tory Leave areas.
>
> It is refusing to leave the EU that would lead to Canada 1993 style wipeout for the Tories.
>
> If the Tories deliver Brexit then the Brexit Party will collapse back to UKIP 2017 levels or at most UKIP 2015 levels and just be left with the ultra hardliners
It makes me smile how you understand the ecological fallacy for the Conservatives but not for Labour.
> New Tory leadership twitter account 'Hard for Hancock'
>
>
>
> https://mobile.twitter.com/hard4hancock
>
> Oh dear. Somebody didn't think that one through...
Parody account methinks
> On the B&Q discussion:
>
> Buy the wood and a saw.
>
> Use the saw to cut the wood in the car park.
>
> Take the saw back for a refund.
That one passed me by - maybe because I have several really good saws at home and I was returning to town in the afternoon anyway and so I just took my saw along and dealt with the problem
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > Rubbish because most of the Tory vote went to the Brexit Party, the Brexit Party even won councils in that table like Tunbridge Wells that voted Remain not just Tory Leave areas.
> >
> > It is refusing to leave the EU that would lead to Canada 1993 style wipeout for the Tories.
> >
> > If the Tories deliver Brexit then the Brexit Party will collapse back to UKIP 2017 levels or at most UKIP 2015 levels and just be left with the ultra hardliners
> ----------
>
> The numbers don't lie. More of the Tory vote went to Remain parties in those places than to the Brexit Party.
Actually the numbers tell us over 50% of 2017 Tories who voted voted Brexit Party last week and only 12% voted LD
> I know that (and that he was called Septimius). Do dates not matter to modern historians? As in, Men first reached the moon on Apollo rockets centuries ago?"
>
> D'you mean classical historians? Modern historians are something altogether different.
>
> Edit - and his name is spelled both ways.
Perhaps you are working towards the Most Patronising Poster of the Year award? I know what an ancient historian is because I am one (in the literal sense that I used to earn a living by knowing this stuff). I was assuming that both D Abbott, and you, identify as modern historians, and you appear equally lax about dating matters.
I have just searched the entire classical Latin corpus at https://latin.packhum.org without finding anyone calling him Septimus; but I was possibly a bit lax about covering all the possible inflections.
> God I hate UEFA.
>
> If there's any justice in the world Armenia qualify for Euro 2020 and some of their matches are in Baku.
>
> Arsenal fans wearing Henrikh Mkhitaryan shirts stopped by police in Baku 'for their safety'
>
> https://news.sky.com/story/arsenal-fans-wearing-henrikh-mkhitaryan-shirts-stopped-by-police-in-baku-for-their-safety-11730908
They interviewed a Chelsea supporter on radio and asked if he'd had a difficult journey
'Yes very difficult' said the supporter. It's taken me two days"
"Do you mind if I ask you how much it cost you" asked the reporter
"About two and a half grand" said the supporter
" Do you think it's been worth it?" asked the reporter
" Well my misses has told told me she's never going to speak to me again so I suppose it has"
>
> Actually the numbers tell us over 50% of 2017 Tories who voted voted Brexit Party last week and only 12% voted LD
---------
You need to compare like-for-like with 2014, grouping UKIP and the Brexit Party, to get a true view. 2017 was an anomaly because its peculiar circumstances created a polarised two-party vote that doesn't reflect the underlying reality.
> The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment.
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430
Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler?
It’s an outrage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvCu87w7R9U
When leavers still drew cocks on ballot papers last week and others still could not be arsed to turn out for the vote of their choosing they did not win anything like as well as they ought to have done. You said that was the case on here last Friday, I did not believe you and to that extent I was definitely wrong.
There will not be a second Referendum - there can't be. There could be another GE but there will have to be a coupon pact between Brexit and Con AND Cons who have voted the gov't out of office must not be allowed to stand as Cons.
There will also have to be a series of lectures to Brexit supporters that being a supporter means getting off your arse and actually voting. I guess GOTV is not overly necessary in Italy but it is essential here in the UK. Brexit need to invest some of their dosh on a sophisticated GOTV package because that is where the LDs beat them and the Cons hands down at the moment and would do in any GE.
> > @AndyJS said:
>
> > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment.
>
> >
>
> > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430
>
>
>
> Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler?
>
> I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future.
>
> It’s an outrage.
The case is hopeless. I don’t, however, see the outrage of stopping bare-faced lies issued in the hope of duping the public.
> > @AndyJS said:
>
> > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment.
>
> >
>
> > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430
>
>
>
> Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler?
>
> I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future.
>
> It’s an outrage.
It is crazy and nearly every politician, journalist and tv presenter could be caught up in similar cases if it is not prevented by the HOC
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> >
> > > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430
> >
> >
> >
> > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler?
> >
> > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future.
> >
> > It’s an outrage.
>
> It is crazy and nearly every politician, journalist and tv presenter could be caught up in similar cases if it is not prevent by the HOC
Or the courts themselves. A higher court should dismiss this.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> >
> > > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430
> >
> >
> >
> > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler?
> >
> > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future.
> >
> > It’s an outrage.
>
> The case is hopeless. I don’t, however, see the outrage of stopping bare-faced lies issued in the hope of duping the public.
Except that it was a factually correct gross figure, not a bare-faced lie.
> The case taken against Boris could raise many questions
>
> First among them being 'how much will this have helped not hindered his chances in the race to be PM?'
He has already made a full on attack on the remainers and democracy
> > @AndyJS said:
>
> > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment.
>
> >
>
> > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430
>
>
>
> Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler?
>
> I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future.
>
> It’s an outrage.
Nobody is above the law. Misconduct in public office is a serious offence and I have every confidence in the legal process testing the alleged actions in a fair and balanced way. Politicians have a bad reputation with the public for the difference between what they promise and deliver. If they misrepresent something they should be held to account as anybody else in any other job would be....
We are not a banana republic.
Very dangerous precedent that needs to be strangled at birth.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> > >
> > > > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler?
> > >
> > > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future.
> > >
> > > It’s an outrage.
> >
> > The case is hopeless. I don’t, however, see the outrage of stopping bare-faced lies issued in the hope of duping the public.
>
> Except that it was a factually correct gross figure, not a bare-faced lie.
I love the fact that three years after it lost them the referendum, remainers are still banging on about how much we give the EU without getting anything back in return - is it 350m or 240m? Either way, it's a lot.
Still waiting for someone to make a positive case for the EU instead of quibbling over exactly how much they cost us...
> > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > > @AndyJS said:
>
> >
>
> > > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler?
>
> >
>
> > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future.
>
> >
>
> > It’s an outrage.
>
>
>
> The case is hopeless. I don’t, however, see the outrage of stopping bare-faced lies issued in the hope of duping the public.
>
> It should in no way be a criminal matter.
>
> We are not a banana republic.
>
> Very dangerous precedent that needs to be strangled at birth.
How dare the public be denied fake news!
> > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > > @AndyJS said:
>
> >
>
> > > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler?
>
> >
>
> > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future.
>
> >
>
> > It’s an outrage.
>
>
>
> The case is hopeless. I don’t, however, see the outrage of stopping bare-faced lies issued in the hope of duping the public.
>
> It should in no way be a criminal matter.
>
> We are not a banana republic.
>
> Very dangerous precedent that needs to be strangled at birth.
We are at one on this
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> > > Anecdotal.
> > >
> > > In my world the only Tory in my world people are talking about is Rory. “He’s too nice/good/bright to be Tory leader” they say.
> >
> > Theresa May has really done him, and the other outsiders, a favour by stringing the process out by announcing her resignation in advance.
> >
> > On the one hand we have Boris, Hunt, etc, with the same sterile arguments about renegotiation, no deal, no referendum, no confidence, on and on, ad nauseam, and then on the other hand you have Rory putting himself out there and being different and new.
> >
> > Maybe enough MPs will decide that he's the sort of Hail Mary pass they're desperate enough for that he can get through to the members' ballot to crash and burn in spectacular style.
>
> But if the future that we are heading towards is a socially conservative/nationalist party and a socially liberal/globalist one, isn't Rory making his pitch for future leadership to the wrong side?
Well that depends on whether you believe that future is heading our way due to inevitable laws of nature, or due to the actions of people. If the latter then people like Rory are capable of creating a different future.
> > @viewcode said:
>
> > Interesting that senior cabinet ministers with reasonable numbers of endorsements - Hunt, Javid and Hancock - are not rated at all in the betting market. That makes this leadership election really unusual. Perhaps that's a reason for the favourite to win this time?
>
> >
>
> > The odds on Lib Coalition winning the Australian Federal Election at the moment the polls closed was 10% according to Australian Betfair. They won.
>
> >
>
> > I think it's time we took this "betting odds are predictive" malarky out behind the shed and shoot it. How many elections since 2010 has it gotten wrong?
>
>
>
> And how many has it got right?
>
>
>
> A 10% chance should come in 10% of the time, not never.
>
> A useful reminder, thank you. According to the paper I am currently reading that process is called "calibration", although I am not sure that's universal, as bookies, modellers and statisticians use different terminology.
Indeed. If you play dice games you may think that rolling "snakes eyes" is 'very unlucky', but it will happen 1/36th of the time. In a game where you roll dice 100 times, you'll roll snake eyes an average of 3 times. So when it happens that's not unlucky its just randomly due and you ignore the remaining 97 times it didn't happen.
>
> > If the Tories deliver Brexit then the Brexit Party will collapse back to UKIP 2017 levels or at most UKIP 2015 levels and just be left with the ultra hardliners
>
> When leavers still drew cocks on ballot papers last week and others still could not be arsed to turn out for the vote of their choosing they did not win anything like as well as they ought to have done. You said that was the case on here last Friday, I did not believe you and to that extent I was definitely wrong.
>
> There will not be a second Referendum - there can't be. There could be another GE but there will have to be a coupon pact between Brexit and Con AND Cons who have voted the gov't out of office must not be allowed to stand as Cons.
>
> There will also have to be a series of lectures to Brexit supporters that being a supporter means getting off your arse and actually voting. I guess GOTV is not overly necessary in Italy but it is essential here in the UK. Brexit need to invest some of their dosh on a sophisticated GOTV package because that is where the LDs beat them and the Cons hands down at the moment and would do in any GE.
Even if LDs have a higher turnout than Brexit Party voters on a 35% turnout last week the Brexit Party won over 400 local authority areas, a clear majority, so would sweep up under FPTP if we are still in the EU by the next general election
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> >
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler?
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > It’s an outrage.
> >
> >
> >
> > The case is hopeless. I don’t, however, see the outrage of stopping bare-faced lies issued in the hope of duping the public.
> >
> > It should in no way be a criminal matter.
> >
> > We are not a banana republic.
> >
> > Very dangerous precedent that needs to be strangled at birth.
>
> How dare the public be denied fake news!
How date the public be denied free speech?
Quoting factually accurate gross figures is not "fake news" and who is the arbiter to determine what is acceptable and what isn't?
Or they did.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > > @AndyJS said:
>
> >
>
> > > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler?
>
> >
>
> > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future.
>
> >
>
> > It’s an outrage.
>
>
>
> The case is hopeless. I don’t, however, see the outrage of stopping bare-faced lies issued in the hope of duping the public.
>
> It should in no way be a criminal matter.
>
> We are not a banana republic.
>
> Very dangerous precedent that needs to be strangled at birth.
I am sorry I don't agree. If a police officer or any other public official misleads the public they will suffer consequences. If the remain side politicians had contrived to misled in the same way as Johnson they should be prosecuted as well. Politicians need to be held to the standard the law dictates.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> >
> > > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430
> >
> >
> >
> > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler?
> >
> > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future.
> >
> > It’s an outrage.
>
> Nobody is above the law. Misconduct in public office is a serious offence and I have every confidence in the legal process testing the alleged actions in a fair and balanced way. Politicians have a bad reputation with the public for the difference between what they promise and deliver. If they misrepresent something they should be held to account as anybody else in any other job would be....
Grab a straw poll of people and ask them what "misconduct in public office" means.
My guess is that most would say it is something like embezzlement of public funds. A few might say it is fiddling your expenses. Or fiddling your secretary. Or bringing rent boys back to the office.
I guarantee you that nobody will say it means "using a gross figure when determining how much the country pays to a supranational authority as part of a membership fee".
Ask those people again what the punishment for "misconduct in public office" should be and the response will probably be "it's a sacking offence" "automatic recall" or even "punishment under the relevant legislation, if a crime has been committed" (rather than seeing it as a crime itself).
The idea that we can start locking up politicians for telling "lies" is absurd and Orwellian. The correct way to punish politicians who lie is through the ballot box. Anything else sets a dangerous - nay, terrifying - precedent.
I hope Boris wins this, if not the leadership.
> > @Benpointer said:
>
> > Take the 2nd entry: Mid Devon. Is a 24% increase in Remain parties vote bigger than the 13% increase in BP/UKIP?
>
>
>
> Yes it is.
>
>
>
> Compare 2014:
>
>
>
> https://www.middevon.gov.uk/media/114905/european-election-2014-declaration-of-results.pdf
>
>
>
> With 2019:
>
>
>
> https://www.middevon.gov.uk/your-council/voting-elections/2019-elections/european-parliamentary-elections/
>
> What would happen at the next GE if Labour put revoke in their manifesto, and the Tories picked a Remain PM?
It's be a two horse race between Corbyn and Farage
> > @Benpointer said:
> > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > > @Jonathan said:
> > > > Anecdotal.
> > > >
> > > > In my world the only Tory in my world people are talking about is Rory. “He’s too nice/good/bright to be Tory leader” they say.
> > >
> > > Theresa May has really done him, and the other outsiders, a favour by stringing the process out by announcing her resignation in advance.
> > >
> > > On the one hand we have Boris, Hunt, etc, with the same sterile arguments about renegotiation, no deal, no referendum, no confidence, on and on, ad nauseam, and then on the other hand you have Rory putting himself out there and being different and new.
> > >
> > > Maybe enough MPs will decide that he's the sort of Hail Mary pass they're desperate enough for that he can get through to the members' ballot to crash and burn in spectacular style.
> >
> > He's certainly standing out from the crowd.
> >
> > I watched the first episode ot the Thatcher documentary a couple of nights ago... no one gave her much of a chance when she challenged Heath, and look what happened.
>
> The documentary might have said no-one gave her a chance - that was not the reality. She would have won an even bigger majority in Oct 1978, even if that was before the Winter of Discontent.
>
> I also like the way everyone on here says how much more gravitas the senior MPs had back then - simply not true. We diminish our own time too easily.
______
It appears that there was a right-wing plot to instal Thatcher in 1975. The moderates by comparison were poorly prepared. I don't think there's a coup underway to instal Stewart. If there is, it's extremely well-concealed for what is a social media age ...
> Good to see that Leavers are huffing and puffing to be allowed to lie without consequence. I’m not sure that’s going to be very saleable to the general public.
I am more concerned about the wider implications of this for everyone in public life
I wonder where they got the idea.
There are ultra hard Remainers - like Jo Maugham QC - who have added their voices to concerns over this today, and underlined that political sanctions should be the punishment and not the criminal law.
I’d have thought, as someone with a firm legal background and strong morals, that you’d be the same.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > Good to see that Leavers are huffing and puffing to be allowed to lie without consequence. I’m not sure that’s going to be very saleable to the general public.
>
> I am more concerned about the wider implications of this for everyone in public life
Lots of people get criminally punished for lying for profit. Fraud, it’s usually called.
> Good to see that Leavers are huffing and puffing to be allowed to lie without consequence. I’m not sure that’s going to be very saleable to the general public.
I'm glad to see how relaxed you are about the courts being used to harass one's political opponents.
Do carry on...
> Indeed. If you play dice games you may think that rolling "snakes eyes" is 'very unlucky', but it will happen 1/36th of the time. In a game where you roll dice 100 times, you'll roll snake eyes an average of 3 times. So when it happens that's not unlucky its just randomly due and you ignore the remaining 97 times it didn't happen.
More interesting is that the probability of not rolling snake eyes at all in 100 times is 0.06, or more likely than 1-in-17, so that Friday when your mate doesn't roll snake eyes in 100 rolls you begin to suspect him of using crooked dice because you don't understand that probability is more than averages...
But, the way to do that is through politics. Not the criminal law.
> Good to see that Leavers are huffing and puffing to be allowed to lie without consequence. I’m not sure that’s going to be very saleable to the general public.
>
> If I’m honest, Alastair, I’m very surprised to see you taking the position you have on this; I can only assume out of anger over the original Leave campaign itself.
>
> There are ultra hard Remainers - like Jo Maugham QC - who have added their voices to concerns over this today, and underlined that political sanctions should be the punishment and not the criminal law.
>
> I’d have thought, as someone with a firm legal background and strong morals, that you’d be the same.
Strong morals require that lying for profit has consequences. All I see is Leavers saying that lying for profit for a cause they approve of should be given a free pass.
The shortness of both still baffles me.
The political consequences are real and clear.
BTW, I hope that the guy bringing this case has properly accounted for the £200,000 he crowdfunded. He'd be stupid not to have ...
> Genuine question; do we actually know if Blair deliberately lied to Parliament to get support for the Iraq War or was it was just poor intelligence? Facts only please.
He said in the foreword to his dossier:
“I believe that the assessed intelligence has established beyond doubt... that Saddam has continued to produce chemical and biological weapons...”
No honest man could have believed that on the evidence available.
> > @The_Taxman said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> > >
> > > > The maximum sentence for the crime of which Boris is being accused is life imprisonment.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Isn't abuse of the courts in order to silence one's political opponents one of those "eleven sure signs of fascism" or whatnot that remainers keep trotting out to prove that everyone who disagrees with them is Literally Hitler?
> > >
> > > I hope Parliament legislates to prevent similar cases in future.
> > >
> > > It’s an outrage.
> >
> > Nobody is above the law. Misconduct in public office is a serious offence and I have every confidence in the legal process testing the alleged actions in a fair and balanced way. Politicians have a bad reputation with the public for the difference between what they promise and deliver. If they misrepresent something they should be held to account as anybody else in any other job would be....
>
> Grab a straw poll of people and ask them what "misconduct in public office" means.
>
> My guess is that most would say it is something like embezzlement of public funds. A few might say it is fiddling your expenses. Or fiddling your secretary. Or bringing rent boys back to the office.
>
> I guarantee you that nobody will say it means "using a gross figure when determining how much the country pays to a supranational authority as part of a membership fee".
>
> Ask those people again what the punishment for "misconduct in public office" should be and the response will probably be "it's a sacking offence" "automatic recall" or even "punishment under the relevant legislation, if a crime has been committed" (rather than seeing it as a crime itself).
>
> The idea that we can start locking up politicians for telling "lies" is absurd and Orwellian. The correct way to punish politicians who lie is through the ballot box. Anything else sets a dangerous - nay, terrifying - precedent.
I am sorry I don't agree. Politicians are in a privileged position in which they determine how the population live their lives. If politicians are misleading the population and deliberately distorting things for their own gain, the politicians in question need to be held to account. Politicians are intelligent enough to know when they are sailing close to the wind and if the possibility of being prosecuted deters misleading claims this is a good thing. Normally a politician is held to account in a democratic way. A referendum campaign runs outside of the normal constraining mechanisms of parliament for instance or the London assembly. I think it is a good thing politicians can be held to account in a legal context and this applies to either side of the political debate.
But politicians use anecdotes, selective quotation of facts and emotional rhetoric to win votes, the choice of which is the electorate’s. They are then held accountable for their performance accordingly in office, and live or die by it.
On your test you could prosecute almost every politician who’s ever run for office.