Those seem sensible and forward-looking ideas that will prove popular with large segments of the electorate.
It also means that he'll stand no-chance with the Conservative member dinosaurs, who are more interested in the 1940s or 1850s than the modern world ...
> The reality is that in this parliament there isn’t a majority for any solution to Brexit. Yes, you can argue that somehow there might be, and maybe that will turn out to be the case, but we all really know that is pretty unlikely. So you either change the parliament or you seek to make the decision outside parliament. That’s the choice. An election or a referendum.
> Things have changed and a General Election, now, threatens survival of the Conservative Party, and decimation of a variety of Labour constituencies.
>
> It’s likely the new Parliament would be even more divided and factional than this one, totally hung, if such a thing is imaginable.
Which only leaves open 2 issues:-
1) We don't have time for a referendum to be prepared and completed before the end of September / early October (so it would need an extension); Especially as it can only be called by whoever becomes leader in late July
2) some Tory candidates are already committed to leaving on October 31st. I suspect they can't backtrack from that position and win an election. And it would be hard to backtrack in July to get things done.
So while a referendum is the answer I suspect we are going to get a General Election first as that's the only option available in the time available.
Yes, GE and hoplessly hung parliament, extension followed by second referendum seems plausible, but who knows? I am not sure that we get the extension.
> @OldKingCole said: > > @YBarddCwsc said: > > > @IanB2 said:. > > > > > > I thought so, but came to realise that it was because I wanted it to be so. She is a fresh, passionate and engaging politician, but very new, and still on a steep learning curve. Her enthusiasm leads her to say things spontaneously that sometimes aren’t that wise; good judgement is an essential quality for a leader and she has some work to do. > > > > > > Which does leave the LDs with a very limited field, but probably not as bad as you’d get if you selected at random the same small number of Tory or Labour MPs and then had to pick a leader from among them. > > > > ------------- > > > > I agree. > > > > Dan Snow's Piece of Fake News -- when he said he got a piece of Brexit Party literature included with his ballot paper from the Council -- took her in completely (as well as Jolyon & Carole & pb.com's finest Remainers). > > > > Dan Snow later retracted, eating a big helping of Crow Pie. > > > > Even without the slap, Layla is a gamble. Maybe in 5 to 10 years. > > For an intelligent man, Dan S does say some strange things. Probably wise not to accept what he says unless he's working to a script. > And, on topic, think I'd prefer Ms M to have another year or three before becoming Leader. > What are Christine Jardine's chances? Didn't I read that her hat was in the ring? > Seems like a mature, sensible, person.
As a Historian Dan Snow is less than mediocre. He fronts TV shows about history in which he reveals what has been known for tens if not hundreds of years by anyone who took the trouble to look at primary and serious secondary sources.
There are good historians on TV, obviously David Starkey is the Andrew Neill of them all. Dan Snow isn't even a Michael Crick.
Those seem sensible and forward-looking ideas that will prove popular with large segments of the electorate.
It also means that he'll stand no-chance with the Conservative member dinosaurs, who are more interested in the 1940s or 1850s than the modern world ...
> The reality is that in this parliament there isn’t a majority for any solution to Brexit. Yes, you can argue that somehow there might be, and maybe that will turn out to be the case, but we all really know that is pretty unlikely. So you either change the parliament or you seek to make the decision outside parliament. That’s the choice. An election or a referendum.
> Things have changed and a General Election, now, threatens survival of the Conservative Party, and decimation of a variety of Labour constituencies.
>
> It’s likely the new Parliament would be even more divided and factional than this one, totally hung, if such a thing is imaginable.
I increasingly think a second referendum, narrow vote to remain, followed a couple of years later by a Brexit party majority and a disorderly no deal Brexit, quite possibly rejoining five years later is the most likely outcome now. A dialectic process. Testing both polar extremes to destruction before returning to some kind of consensus.
> The reality is that in this parliament there isn’t a majority for any solution to Brexit. Yes, you can argue that somehow there might be, and maybe that will turn out to be the case, but we all really know that is pretty unlikely. So you either change the parliament or you seek to make the decision outside parliament. That’s the choice. An election or a referendum.
> Things have changed and a General Election, now, threatens survival of the Conservative Party, and decimation of a variety of Labour constituencies.
>
> It’s likely the new Parliament would be even more divided and factional than this one, totally hung, if such a thing is imaginable.
Which only leaves open 2 issues:-
1) We don't have time for a referendum to be prepared and completed before the end of September / early October (so it would need an extension); Especially as it can only be called by whoever becomes leader in late July
2) some Tory candidates are already committed to leaving on October 31st. I suspect they can't backtrack from that position and win an election. And it would be hard to backtrack in July to get things done.
So while a referendum is the answer I suspect we are going to get a General Election first as that's the only option available in the time available.
(1) The EU will grant another extension. (2) Don’t believe them, particularly Boris.
> The SNP must be absolubtely cock a hoop about all this. The Brexit party pretty much cleaning up in England and Wales is catnip for them.
The best bit is that this mess is *entirely* self-inflicted.
Cameron wasn’t happy with simply firing a revolver at his foot. He thought it wise to release a whopping great nuclear dirty bomb right at the heart of the English body politic.
You will be cleaning up your scarred nation for decades to come. We Scots are just looking on aghast. How, oh how, could you be so daft?
I'm beginning to sense a rumbling revolt beginning within the Labour Party. The Tories can hide behind their leadership election to bring about change. Labour which arguably performed worse than the Tories has no similar distraction. I'm not sure how this is going to show itself but there's definitely a feeling that the walls around Corbyn are cracking.
> @Nigelb said: > > And who knows what Parliament might result ? > It would almost certainly be more polarised on Brexit, with an increase in both no dealers and revokers, and I wouldn’t like to begin to guess the Parliamentary numbers. FPTP could throw up some very strange results.
---
But, politicians are always optimists, and so they will always think the "very strange results" will be in their favour.
To No Deal Brexit may well be possible on 35 per cent of the vote, if the Brexit Party & the Tory Right collude.
The threshold for getting what you want is much lower in a GE.
Those seem sensible and forward-looking ideas that will prove popular with large segments of the electorate.
It also means that he'll stand no-chance with the Conservative member dinosaurs, who are more interested in the 1940s or 1850s than the modern world ...
Rory will be an excellent leader for the Lib Dems
Nah. I have zero doubt that if the worst happened, Rory would commit our armed forces to a war - knowing full well the problems and complexities that decision involves.
That seems rather inconsistent with being a Lib Dem atm ...
> @YBarddCwsc said: > > @Nigelb said: > > > > And who knows what Parliament might result ? > > It would almost certainly be more polarised on Brexit, with an increase in both no dealers and revokers, and I wouldn’t like to begin to guess the Parliamentary numbers. FPTP could throw up some very strange results. > > --- > > But, politicians are always optimists, and so they will always think the "very strange results" will be in their favour. > > To No Deal Brexit may well be possible on 35 per cent of the vote, if the Brexit Party & the Tory Right collude. > > The threshold for getting what you want is much lower in a GE.
No Tory PM is going into an election, not having ‘delivered’ Brexit, as an optimist. Though of course it’s a gamble which might be forced on them.
Just pointing out that there are no foregone conclusions. The lack of overlap between traditional and Brexit loyalties has seen to that.
> @Foxy said: > > @StuartDickson said: > > > > @oxfordsimon said: > > > > > @AramintaMoonbeamQC said: > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > @AramintaMoonbeamQC said: > > > > > > > > @Theuniondivvie said: > > > > > > > > McMomentum strikes back. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/LeonardForFM/status/1133475079432617984 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > For the record, that 'remarkable wave of support' hasn't reached Glasgow twitter trends. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Most of my ScotPol twitter timeline was people lol-ing at Scottish Labour's death throes/hoping for James Kelly as next leader for further laughs. > > > > > > > > > > > > Is this flood mainly from SNP handles? > > > > > > > > > > Support, wherever it comes from, is clearly welcomed. > > > > > > > > But it is immensely sad that they have to make such a fuss about receiving support. > > > > > > > > His days are clearly numbered and his team is in denial > > > > > > Leonard is currently my favourite politician. But I’m keeping an eye on Gove. Sometimes dreams really do come true. > > > > At least one of the supporters was smart enough to remind people what he actually looks like. I doubt 5% of Scots know. > > SLAB reminds me of UKIP, with its serial leaders each only briefly in post and vanishing afterwards. Each of lower stature than the predecessor, certain to be wound up as a going concern shortly.
Whilst that is all undoubtedly true and UKIP's demise seems certain it at least had pretensions to be a regular party with some internal democracy, policy structures, etc. TBP is entirely Farage's plaything, entirely under his somewhat capricious control. I am not sure that is a structure that can survive for long.
I'm beginning to sense a rumbling revolt beginning within the Labour Party. The Tories can hide behind their leadership election to bring about change. Labour which arguably performed worse than the Tories has no similar distraction. I'm not sure how this is going to show itself but there's definitely a feeling that the walls around Corbyn are cracking.
Labour definitely did not perform worse, though still terribly.
That said Corbyn does not look invulnerable anymore. At best he just doesnt seem exercised by Brexit the way he is on other issues and everyone can see that, so even if he commits to remain hes not displaying the qualities people liked about him.
In other news, President Trump wants to convert the new aircraft carriers from the new electric EMALS catapult / arrester system to steam.
Except the first ship, USS Gerald Ford, is basically complete and it would be incredibly problematic to convert the design to steam.
The guy is clueless. EMALS is problematic, but so are many new technologies, and it is the future.
(On the other hand, it indicates we might have dodged significant problems with our new carriers, given that any catapult system was going to be based on EMALS, given our hiomegrown system was abandoned.)
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > The reality is that in this parliament there isn’t a majority for any solution to Brexit. Yes, you can argue that somehow there might be, and maybe that will turn out to be the case, but we all really know that is pretty unlikely. So you either change the parliament or you seek to make the decision outside parliament. That’s the choice. An election or a referendum. > > > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/there-s-no-avoiding-election-or-a-second-vote-8rqn087zt > > > > > > It will be a second referendum. > > > > > > Things have changed and a General Election, now, threatens survival of the Conservative Party, and decimation of a variety of Labour constituencies. > > > > > > It’s likely the new Parliament would be even more divided and factional than this one, totally hung, if such a thing is imaginable. > > > > I increasingly think a second referendum, narrow vote to remain, followed a couple of years later by a Brexit party majority and a disorderly no deal Brexit, quite possibly rejoining five years later is the most likely outcome now. A dialectic process. Testing both polar extremes to destruction before returning to some kind of consensus. > > I think Leave will win again
Possible, but I don't think that solves anything without another general election.
This Parliament simply will not allow Brexit to happen. That has been made eminently clear over the last three years. If we vote to leave again, we will be exactly where we are now. With a political class that will do absolutely anything, including a _third_ referendum ("are you sure? are you really, really sure?").
Which is why I think a GE with a Brexit Party win that sweeps away all before it, SNP style, is inevitable, sooner or later. I also expect a Brexit party government to be a chaotic failure that results in rejoin (though that's a bit of crystal ball gazing at this point).
> @kle4 said: > I'm beginning to sense a rumbling revolt beginning within the Labour Party. The Tories can hide behind their leadership election to bring about change. Labour which arguably performed worse than the Tories has no similar distraction. I'm not sure how this is going to show itself but there's definitely a feeling that the walls around Corbyn are cracking. > > Labour definitely did not perform worse, though still terribly. > > That said Corbyn does not look invulnerable anymore. At best he just doesnt seem exercised by Brexit the way he is on other issues and everyone can see that, so even if he commits to remain hes not displaying the qualities people liked about him.
Perhaps if the Palestinians sought EU membership he might get engaged?
Is there a parliamentary route to a 2nd ref? A GE is more likely just because it can happen more easily.
Quite so. I actually think fewer will want a GE, but as things develop they will be boxed in and a failure to agree on something can lead to a GE, whereas they need to actually agree something for a referendum.
Those seem sensible and forward-looking ideas that will prove popular with large segments of the electorate.
It also means that he'll stand no-chance with the Conservative member dinosaurs, who are more interested in the 1940s or 1850s than the modern world ...
Rory will be an excellent leader for the Lib Dems
Nah. I have zero doubt that if the worst happened, Rory would commit our armed forces to a war - knowing full well the problems and complexities that decision involves.
That seems rather inconsistent with being a Lib Dem atm ...
Well, they have warmonger Campbell as a cheerleader
> @kle4 said: > Is there a parliamentary route to a 2nd ref? A GE is more likely just because it can happen more easily. > > Quite so. I actually think fewer will want a GE, but as things develop they will be boxed in and a failure to agree on something can lead to a GE, whereas they need to actually agree something for a referendum.
A GE before the refugees from the CUK fiasco find a home with the Lib Dems, if they are welcome, means that they leave the stage. It also almost certainly means a reasonable number of MPs from the Brexit Party in the current febrile state of things. Remainer MPs should be careful what they wish for. I think it is highly unlikely that the next Parliament will be as remainer dominated as this one has been.
This Farage character, badly flawed, sets up virtually his own party with only one policy. Previously having led Ukip to intimidate Cameron into calling a referendum, besting Clegg in debate on his own pet subject, is obviously a poor politician.
It doesn't say much for the current crop of MPs, does it?
> @IanB2 said: > > @AndyJS said: > > I think Layla Moran would make a better LD leader. > > I thought so, but came to realise that it was because I wanted it to be so. She is a fresh, passionate and engaging politician, but very new, and still on a steep learning curve. Her enthusiasm leads her to say things spontaneously that sometimes aren’t that wise; good judgement is an essential quality for a leader and she has some work to do. > > Which does leave the LDs with a very limited field, but probably not as bad as you’d get if you selected at random the same small number of Tory or Labour MPs and then had to pick a leader from among them.
The LibDems need to find a way of letting non-MPs stand for the leadership this time. With the right leader they should be able to build on recent performances but I fear none of the small group of MPs is going to make the necessary breakthrough.
> Is there a parliamentary route to a 2nd ref? A GE is more likely just because it can happen more easily.
>
> Quite so. I actually think fewer will want a GE, but as things develop they will be boxed in and a failure to agree on something can lead to a GE, whereas they need to actually agree something for a referendum.
A GE before the refugees from the CUK fiasco find a home with the Lib Dems, if they are welcome, means that they leave the stage. It also almost certainly means a reasonable number of MPs from the Brexit Party in the current febrile state of things. Remainer MPs should be careful what they wish for. I think it is highly unlikely that the next Parliament will be as remainer dominated as this one has been.
This whole process has been marked by both sides ignoring that they might risk that which they claim to despise because there is a chance of victory. Sure there is a chance it wont work but when has that ever stopped any of this lot? Eventually one side will succeed, that's all that matters .
> @OllyT said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > I think Layla Moran would make a better LD leader. > > > > I thought so, but came to realise that it was because I wanted it to be so. She is a fresh, passionate and engaging politician, but very new, and still on a steep learning curve. Her enthusiasm leads her to say things spontaneously that sometimes aren’t that wise; good judgement is an essential quality for a leader and she has some work to do. > > > > Which does leave the LDs with a very limited field, but probably not as bad as you’d get if you selected at random the same small number of Tory or Labour MPs and then had to pick a leader from among them. > > The LibDems need to find a way of letting non-MPs stand for the leadership this time. With the right leader they should be able to build on recent performances but I fear none of the small group of MPs is going to make the necessary breakthrough.
That was put formally to the last party conference by Cable (who he had in mind remains a mystery) and rejected.
A referendum gives a better chance of an unambiguous outcome. At the moment an election could result in a Brexit Party majority on 32% of the vote and 60% of the voters totally opposed to their Brexit solution.
> @CD13 said: > This Farage character, badly flawed, sets up virtually his own party with only one policy. Previously having led Ukip to intimidate Cameron into calling a referendum, besting Clegg in debate on his own pet subject, is obviously a poor politician. > > It doesn't say much for the current crop of MPs, does it?
Good campaigner and good politician aren't the same thing, at all. Farage seems to fall out with everyone he works with; if the BXP wins P'Boro it is surely only a matter of time before the new MP's status as the only BXP in Parliament brings him into conflict with Farage's ego.
Mr. T, unless one side wins by a narrow margin. Then it seems we'll just prolong/deepen the division.
If Remain did win, unless it were by a large margin, then those opposed to the EU might have legitimate cause for disgruntlement that they won multiple votes which didn't count, yet a single pro-EU win is set in stone.
Mr. B2, indeed. It's a little reminiscent of Boris.
> @DavidL said: > > @kle4 said: > > Is there a parliamentary route to a 2nd ref? A GE is more likely just because it can happen more easily. > > > > Quite so. I actually think fewer will want a GE, but as things develop they will be boxed in and a failure to agree on something can lead to a GE, whereas they need to actually agree something for a referendum. > > A GE before the refugees from the CUK fiasco find a home with the Lib Dems, if they are welcome, means that they leave the stage. It also almost certainly means a reasonable number of MPs from the Brexit Party in the current febrile state of things. Remainer MPs should be careful what they wish for. I think it is highly unlikely that the next Parliament will be as remainer dominated as this one has been.
The remain vote looks larger by a reasonable margin than the leave vote. So your assumption depends on the remain vote being more fragmented than the leave vote, both being extremely fragmented right now. You may be right that BXP and the Tories may come to some sort of accommodation - but that's a big assumption.
It's also likely that, even if remain parties cant come to some sort of deal, there'll be a lot of tactical voting on the remain side, and I'd expect a lot of effort by campaigners to go into organising and publicising this in a proxy for another vote on Brexit.
Rather than Nigel being the political giant crushing the pygmies before him, might a better explanation be that he has captured a groundswell of public opinion?
That can be ignored, though, because it's 'populism'. If the LDs become even more popular, might they risk the danger of becoming populist?
A referendum gives a better chance of an unambiguous outcome. At the moment an election could result in a Brexit Party majority on 32% of the vote and 60% of the voters totally opposed to their Brexit solution.
Labour and the Conservatives are still fighting very old wars and *still* seeing Brexit as a tool with which they can stiff the other, whereas it actually threatens both their survival and - it they want any future at all - they need to work together to resolve it.
> @Morris_Dancer said: > Mr. T, unless one side wins by a narrow margin. Then it seems we'll just prolong/deepen the division. > > If Remain did win, unless it were by a large margin, then those opposed to the EU might have legitimate cause for disgruntlement that they won multiple votes which didn't count, yet a single pro-EU win is set in stone. > > Mr. B2, indeed. It's a little reminiscent of Boris.
If the result of the first referendum isn't respected, if we are made to vote again - and this time it is a narrow remain win - why on earth should any leaver respect the result of the second referendum?
The easiest way to secure Brexit will be for disgruntled leavers to win a majority in a GE on 35-40% of the vote against a fragmented opposition. Which I think is almost an inevitability if the referendum is re-run without an absolutely massive consensus for Remain.
Bercow saying he'll stay on after all is about as surprising as Boris announcing he wants to be leader.
Sadly there’s no way of getting rid of a Speaker who doesn’t want to leave, even if large numbers of MPs no longer have confidence in his impartiality.
> If the result of the first referendum isn't respected, if we are made to vote again - and this time it is a narrow remain win - why on earth should any leaver respect the result of the second referendum? > Surely it would depend on whether or not foreign powers had had any input into the result.
Can we be sure that the recent elections to the EU Parliament were entirely clean?
> @Casino_Royale said: > > Labour and the Conservatives are still fighting very old wars and *still* seeing Brexit as a tool with which they can stiff the other, whereas it actually threatens both their survival and - it they want any future at all - they need to work together to resolve it. > > However, that’s where we’re at.
> @kle4 said: > I'm beginning to sense a rumbling revolt beginning within the Labour Party. The Tories can hide behind their leadership election to bring about change. Labour which arguably performed worse than the Tories has no similar distraction. I'm not sure how this is going to show itself but there's definitely a feeling that the walls around Corbyn are cracking. > > Labour definitely did not perform worse, though still terribly. > > That said Corbyn does not look invulnerable anymore. At best he just doesnt seem exercised by Brexit the way he is on other issues and everyone can see that, so even if he commits to remain hes not displaying the qualities people liked about him.
Taking the bigger picture, our politics continues to morph toward some sort of socially conservative/nationalist and socially liberal/globalist divide, which presents both of the big parties with a very significant challenge.
Of the two, while they haven't faced it yet (although May's speech on taking office recognised some of what is implied), I think the Tories may better able to adapt. There's a model from the US of a party led by wealthy people from big business relying on a predominantly working class/rural base (although the Tories wont be able to use a religion card). The geographical, policy and personnel shifts that this change implies would be very traumatic for the Tories, but it clearly can happen, and since neither UKIP nor Farage looks like a viable proposition long-term, they may not face much competition.
For Labour, things are much more difficult. Partly because there are several long-established competitors for the crown. But largely because of its history and culture, born from the working class struggle for enfranchisement and workplace rights, in a way that isn't true for the US Democrats (Degler's classic tome on US history analyses how the US political system took shape after the key class struggles had already been won). I think Labour would find the changes needed to become a liberal rather than labour party extremely difficult - the howls from the likes of Nandy, Flint and the union bosses are only the start. If it weren't for our voting system you'd have to conclude that the LibDems provide the better vehicle, and if the remain wave continues they could be able to start to build the firm geographical base they would need to take on Labour and win.
> @kyf_100 said: > > @Morris_Dancer said: > > Mr. T, unless one side wins by a narrow margin. Then it seems we'll just prolong/deepen the division. > > > > If Remain did win, unless it were by a large margin, then those opposed to the EU might have legitimate cause for disgruntlement that they won multiple votes which didn't count, yet a single pro-EU win is set in stone. > > > > Mr. B2, indeed. It's a little reminiscent of Boris. > > If the result of the first referendum isn't respected, if we are made to vote again - and this time it is a narrow remain win - why on earth should any leaver respect the result of the second referendum? > > The easiest way to secure Brexit will be for disgruntled leavers to win a majority in a GE on 35-40% of the vote against a fragmented opposition. Which I think is almost an inevitability if the referendum is re-run without an absolutely massive consensus for Remain.
A referendum only solves things if Leave wins and probably only Leave with the Withdrawal Agreement, if Remain wins unless by at least 70% to 30% then the Brexit Party would likely win the next general election on an SNP 2015 style backlash
Bercow saying he'll stay on after all is about as surprising as Boris announcing he wants to be leader.
Sadly there’s no way of getting rid of a Speaker who doesn’t want to leave, even if large numbers of MPs no longer have confidence in his impartiality.
Except in a new parliament. That is at least one reason to have a GE.
> @IanB2 said: > > @CD13 said: > > This Farage character, badly flawed, sets up virtually his own party with only one policy. Previously having led Ukip to intimidate Cameron into calling a referendum, besting Clegg in debate on his own pet subject, is obviously a poor politician. > > > > It doesn't say much for the current crop of MPs, does it? > > Good campaigner and good politician aren't the same thing, at all. Farage seems to fall out with everyone he works with; if the BXP wins P'Boro it is surely only a matter of time before the new MP's status as the only BXP in Parliament brings him into conflict with Farage's ego.
Shouting over people and interrupting is hardly debating, is it?
Falconer going straight to the nub of the Campbell/Labour membership issue and saying it depends on whether "supporting" in the context of the constitution includes simply saying how you voted, after an election.
> @CD13 said: > Rather than Nigel being the political giant crushing the pygmies before him, might a better explanation be that he has captured a groundswell of public opinion? > > That can be ignored, though, because it's 'populism'. If the LDs become even more popular, might they risk the danger of becoming populist?
"Populism" does not mean "being popular". You can be one or the other, neither, or both. It might help you to get a working definition of the term.
I think Farage has many flaws. However I am puzzled by political logic. It starts with the axiom that whatever I believe is correct and leads on to the conclusion that those who disagree must inevitably be wrong.
I have no background in philosophy so those with a degree in PPE (a third of it philosophy) must be able to pinpoint the flaw here. Democracy is good unless I decide it is populism.
> @IanB2 said: > > @kle4 said: > > I'm beginning to sense a rumbling revolt beginning within the Labour Party. The Tories can hide behind their leadership election to bring about change. Labour which arguably performed worse than the Tories has no similar distraction. I'm not sure how this is going to show itself but there's definitely a feeling that the walls around Corbyn are cracking. > > > > Labour definitely did not perform worse, though still terribly. > > > > That said Corbyn does not look invulnerable anymore. At best he just doesnt seem exercised by Brexit the way he is on other issues and everyone can see that, so even if he commits to remain hes not displaying the qualities people liked about him. > > Taking the bigger picture, our politics continues to morph toward some sort of socially conservative/nationalist and socially liberal/globalist divide, which presents both of the big parties with a very significant challenge. > > Of the two, while they haven't faced it yet (although May's speech on taking office recognised some of what is implied), I think the Tories may better able to adapt. There's a model from the US of a party led by wealthy people from big business relying on a predominantly working class/rural base (although the Tories wont be able to use a religion card). The geographical, policy and personnel shifts that this change implies would be very traumatic for the Tories, but it clearly can happen, and since neither UKIP nor Farage looks like a viable proposition long-term, they may not face much competition. > > For Labour, things are much more difficult. Partly because there are several long-established competitors for the crown. But largely because of its history and culture, born from the working class struggle for enfranchisement and workplace rights, in a way that isn't true for the US Democrats (Degler's classic tome on US history analyses how the US political system took shape after the key class struggles had already been won). I think Labour would find the changes needed to become a liberal rather than labour party extremely difficult - the howls from the likes of Nandy, Flint and the union bosses are only the start. If it weren't for our voting system you'd have to conclude that the LibDems provide the better vehicle, and if the remain wave continues they could be able to start to build the firm geographical base they would need to take on Labour and win. >
If Labour becomes the party of Remain as their sister party showed in the recent Australian general election showed while they would do well in urban and city areas they could kiss goodbye to working class industrial towns and much of the outer suburbs.
The Australian Labor Party emerged from working class Queensland where it was trounced a fortnight ago, it is not impossible to imagine pro Remain Labour even losing Merthyr, home of Keir Hardie, to the Brexit Party or possibly even a pro Brexit Tories
There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters.
In other news, President Trump wants to convert the new aircraft carriers from the new electric EMALS catapult / arrester system to steam.
Except the first ship, USS Gerald Ford, is basically complete and it would be incredibly problematic to convert the design to steam.
The guy is clueless. EMALS is problematic, but so are many new technologies, and it is the future.
(On the other hand, it indicates we might have dodged significant problems with our new carriers, given that any catapult system was going to be based on EMALS, given our hiomegrown system was abandoned.)
CATOBAR was never a viable option for the QE class as a) the ship isn't really fast enough which would lead to payload constrained launches and b) it triples the manning requirement of the air wing compared to STOVL.
The space where the EMCATS hardware would have been is now occupied by the ops centre so QE class will never be going CATOBAR now.
Trump actually said future carrier orders would revert to steam so Ford, JFK and probably Enterprise will use EMALS. It would be theoretically possible to revert CVN-81 which gets laid down in 2023 to steam but it almost certainly won't.
Think farage has missed a trick not standing in Peterborough. There's scarcely ever going to be a better narrative for him. Hot off the victory of EU elections, Pro-brexit constituency, Tories eating themselves, LDs way behind and the previous Lab MP is a convict.
> @kyf_100 said: > > @Morris_Dancer said: > > Mr. T, unless one side wins by a narrow margin. Then it seems we'll just prolong/deepen the division. > > > > If Remain did win, unless it were by a large margin, then those opposed to the EU might have legitimate cause for disgruntlement that they won multiple votes which didn't count, yet a single pro-EU win is set in stone. > > > > Mr. B2, indeed. It's a little reminiscent of Boris. > > If the result of the first referendum isn't respected, if we are made to vote again - and this time it is a narrow remain win - why on earth should any leaver respect the result of the second referendum? > > The easiest way to secure Brexit will be for disgruntled leavers to win a majority in a GE on 35-40% of the vote against a fragmented opposition. Which I think is almost an inevitability if the referendum is re-run without an absolutely massive consensus for Remain.
No side after a political defeat is likely to give up the struggle.
If Leave won again, whether the matter becomes "settled" depends largely on how smooth and harmless the subsequent departure turns out to be. If the country does OK after Brexit and life carries on, remain would probably slowly wither away as an issue. If however there is significant disruption and economic damage, the pressure to rejoin would become irresistible.
Conversely, if Remain won again, settling the matter relies upon the silent majority without strong views not wanting to relive the political horrors of recent years. In the short term that's quite likely; indeed the threatened "backlash" from unhappy leavers could accelerate this as a counter-reaction. Whether anti-EU sentiment returned in the longer-term would depend on how the EU develops politically and economically; one thing we would have which we didn't before is a political class aware and determined to make a more positive case for membership.
> @Sandpit said: > FPT: > Good morning, everyone. > > As predicted by me just yesterday, Gollum won't relinquish the Precious: > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48441344 > > Bercow saying he'll stay on after all is about as surprising as Boris announcing he wants to be leader. > > Sadly there’s no way of getting rid of a Speaker who doesn’t want to leave, even if large numbers of MPs no longer have confidence in his impartiality.
The Speaker is reelected at the start of each parliament, although normally the old Speaker is unopposed. Nonetheless, Bercow has been elected several times now.
Where is this "widespread" opposition to Bercow? Mostly it came from the Cameron government because Bercow championed backbenchers over the executive. It is only since Brexit that some Leavers have started to complain as well.
But in a sense Bercow is like May, Thatcher and Churchill. Now is never the right time to go. There is always just one more crisis to deal with. See also this week's un-resignation of Angela Merkel.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > Andrea Leadsom is coming in like a train on the betting. She was last matched on Betfair for next Prime Minister at 9 (8/1 in old money).
I’m surprised; at least one of her supporters from 2016 is backing Raab (Michael Tomlinson)
> @Jonathan said: > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters. > > Interesting.
Out of interest do they say what the Reform bit would entail and how it would be achieved ?
Will it perhaps be giving up the rest of the Rebate in return for a promise to look at CAP reform in the fullness of time ?
> @HYUFD said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1133627133639692289 > > > > > > > > > > > > Is Mark Harper a no dealer, no hoper or has no profile? > > > > Harper was a Remainer > > Harper did vote against the Withdrawal Agreement twice though because of the backstop
There is an impressive self-delusion in the Tory parliamentary party. The triumph of the human spirit over reality.
> @Ploppikins said: > Think farage has missed a trick not standing in Peterborough. There's scarcely ever going to be a better narrative for him. Hot off the victory of EU elections, Pro-brexit constituency, Tories eating themselves, LDs way behind and the previous Lab MP is a convict.
The Brexit Party will win Peterborough easily regardless, in any case Farage after Sunday's results is now leader of the joint biggest single party in the European Parliament with the CDU so has bigger fish to fry than just being a backbench MP.
If he stands for Westminster again it will be with MPs having failed to deliver Brexit and with a good chance of becoming PM
It's never too late. The Conservative Party needs to weed out its racists. They should have started long ago, but that can't be changed. Start now and in a few years get a clean bill of health. I actually had more faith in them than Labour, but they both look as bad as each other on this.
> @PClipp said: > > If the result of the first referendum isn't respected, if we are made to vote again - and this time it is a narrow remain win - why on earth should any leaver respect the result of the second referendum? > > > Surely it would depend on whether or not foreign powers had had any input into the result. > > Can we be sure that the recent elections to the EU Parliament were entirely clean? >
Certainly the LDs have form with dodgy campaigns..yet they still lose.
> @another_richard said: > > @Jonathan said: > > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters. > > > > Interesting. > > Out of interest do they say what the Reform bit would entail and how it would be achieved ? > > Will it perhaps be giving up the rest of the Rebate in return for a promise to look at CAP reform in the fullness of time ?
The whole'lets turn the EU into a social paradise' has been a pipedream for the far left for years.
> @Jonathan said: > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters. > > Interesting.
In which case Labour better prepare for annihilation by the Brexit Party in its Leave seats in the North and Midlands and Wales even if they hold onto London and other big cities and university towns
> @CD13 said: > Mr a009, > > So populism is a subjective term? Ah, that explains a lot.
No, it is not. It is certainly disputed, and some regard it as a pejorative term (I don't; there is a necessary place for populism), but it means something and the Lib Dems simply aren't it. The Greens, whom I voted for in the Euros, are (partially) populist.
> @Ploppikins said: > Think farage has missed a trick not standing in Peterborough. There's scarcely ever going to be a better narrative for him. Hot off the victory of EU elections, Pro-brexit constituency, Tories eating themselves, LDs way behind and the previous Lab MP is a convict.
I disagree. The candidate that the Brexit Party have selected is a credible figure. A well known local benefactor with a good track record in public life who cannot be held up as a divisive figure in any shape or form. He is capable of a broader appeal and of defusing the claims that people would be voting for an extremist.
> @Mortimer said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > Andrea Leadsom is coming in like a train on the betting. She was last matched on Betfair for next Prime Minister at 9 (8/1 in old money). > > I’m surprised; at least one of her supporters from 2016 is backing Raab (Michael Tomlinson)
It is possible that Leadsom might be the last Brexiteer standing if Gove and Boris (and now Raab) cut each other's throats again. It is a question of working out (that is the polite term for wildly guessing) how supporters will switch once their first choice is eliminated, and Leadsom surely has as much claim as Raab to switchers. She is more experienced and knows the south coast ports like the back of her hand. If memory serves, she has also taken part in television debates, which experience might help here.
> @Jonathan said: > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters. > > Interesting.
I'll believe it when I see it but that could induce me to vote Labour for the first time in my life.
> @ah009 said: > > @Jonathan said: > > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters. > > > > Interesting. > > I'll believe it when I see it but that could induce me to vote Labour for the first time in my life. > > Could.
If it’s coming from Corbynites, the “reform” will be Varoufakis-like hectoring.
> > Andrea Leadsom is coming in like a train on the betting. She was last matched on Betfair for next Prime Minister at 9 (8/1 in old money).
>
> I’m surprised; at least one of her supporters from 2016 is backing Raab (Michael Tomlinson)
It is possible that Leadsom might be the last Brexiteer standing if Gove and Boris (and now Raab) cut each other's throats again. It is a question of working out (that is the polite term for wildly guessing) how supporters will switch once their first choice is eliminated, and Leadsom surely has as much claim as Raab to switchers. She is more experienced and knows the south coast ports like the back of her hand. If memory serves, she has also taken part in television debates, which experience might help here.
I think I floated her as the dark horse in this contest a week or two ago.
In other news, President Trump wants to convert the new aircraft carriers from the new electric EMALS catapult / arrester system to steam.
Except the first ship, USS Gerald Ford, is basically complete and it would be incredibly problematic to convert the design to steam.
The guy is clueless. EMALS is problematic, but so are many new technologies, and it is the future.
(On the other hand, it indicates we might have dodged significant problems with our new carriers, given that any catapult system was going to be based on EMALS, given our hiomegrown system was abandoned.)
CATOBAR was never a viable option for the QE class as a) the ship isn't really fast enough which would lead to payload constrained launches and b) it triples the manning requirement of the air wing compared to STOVL.
The space where the EMCATS hardware would have been is now occupied by the ops centre so QE class will never be going CATOBAR now.
Trump actually said future carrier orders would revert to steam so Ford, JFK and probably Enterprise will use EMALS. It would be theoretically possible to revert CVN-81 which gets laid down in 2023 to steam but it almost certainly won't.
If the US want a new carrier in service every three or four years (in order to maintain ten or so operational carriers), then they need to get redesigning CVN-81 damned quickly. Although as you say, they probably won't.
Any problems with EMALS will be sorted out or worked around by midway through the next decade. It's a problematic technology, but then AIUI so are the old steam catapults - it's just that they've had six decades of experience with it.
I've just been trying to imagine which system - steam or electric - is more robust after an attack. Electric depends on getting the power to the catapults, but steam relies on pressurised pipework and the steam storage vessels, all of which are very vulnerable. I'd guess electric is much more robust.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Jonathan said: > > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters. > > > > Interesting. > > In which case Labour better prepare for annihilation by the Brexit Party in its Leave seats in the North and Midlands and Wales even if they hold onto London and other big cities and university towns
You are Theresa May AICMFP. The 2017 general election shows that not everything is about Brexit. The European elections were, of course, which damaged both the major parties whose Brexit positions were nuanced, to put it politely. But in a general election, Crush the Saboteurs might work for Nigel Farage no better than it did for Theresa May.
> @isam said: > > @Morris_Dancer said: > > > Mr. Meeks, hmm. > > > > > > Is that because of subtle things, or because others have been cocking up? > > > > > > How're Boris' odds? > > > > Boris has held stable at just shy of 2/1. Personally I think he’s ridiculously short priced but obviously others know better. > > What range of price would he be if he made the last 2?
Something like 1/3. His problem is before then in my view.
> @rottenborough said: > > @Mortimer said: > > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > Andrea Leadsom is coming in like a train on the betting. She was last matched on Betfair for next Prime Minister at 9 (8/1 in old money). > > > > > > I’m surprised; at least one of her supporters from 2016 is backing Raab (Michael Tomlinson) > > > > It is possible that Leadsom might be the last Brexiteer standing if Gove and Boris (and now Raab) cut each other's throats again. It is a question of working out (that is the polite term for wildly guessing) how supporters will switch once their first choice is eliminated, and Leadsom surely has as much claim as Raab to switchers. She is more experienced and knows the south coast ports like the back of her hand. If memory serves, she has also taken part in television debates, which experience might help here. > > I think I floated her as the dark horse in this contest a week or two ago.
She was my tip in my round up a couple of weeks back.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Jonathan said: > > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters. > > > > Interesting. > > In which case Labour better prepare for annihilation by the Brexit Party in its Leave seats in the North and Midlands and Wales even if they hold onto London and other big cities and university towns
Or they might be saved by having the angry leaver vote split three ways between the Tories, the Brexit Nigel Party and the Purple Fash.
> @ah009 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Jonathan said: > > > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters. > > > > > > Interesting. > > > > In which case Labour better prepare for annihilation by the Brexit Party in its Leave seats in the North and Midlands and Wales even if they hold onto London and other big cities and university towns > > Or they might be saved by having the angry leaver vote split three ways between the Tories, the Brexit Nigel Party and the Purple Fash.
Nope, the Brexit Party won most northern and Midlands and Welsh seats on Sunday
> @HYUFD said: > > @Jonathan said: > > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters. > > > > Interesting. > > In which case Labour better prepare for annihilation by the Brexit Party in its Leave seats in the North and Midlands and Wales even if they hold onto London and other big cities and university towns
I don't think that is true if it's partnered with a strong left-wing offer across the board. Could be rather compelling.
I am going to put a few £ on Cleverley. He is the sort of person the Tories need, comes across well on the media, and ticks the necessary Brexit box for the members whilst being careful not to go overboard on no deal.
> > > Andrea Leadsom is coming in like a train on the betting. She was last matched on Betfair for next Prime Minister at 9 (8/1 in old money).
>
> >
>
> > I’m surprised; at least one of her supporters from 2016 is backing Raab (Michael Tomlinson)
>
>
>
> It is possible that Leadsom might be the last Brexiteer standing if Gove and Boris (and now Raab) cut each other's throats again. It is a question of working out (that is the polite term for wildly guessing) how supporters will switch once their first choice is eliminated, and Leadsom surely has as much claim as Raab to switchers. She is more experienced and knows the south coast ports like the back of her hand. If memory serves, she has also taken part in television debates, which experience might help here.
>
> I think I floated her as the dark horse in this contest a week or two ago.
She was my tip in my round up a couple of weeks back.
Should I be troubling my book with Mark Harper? A run is about a ministerial post isn't it?
> @HYUFD said: > > @ah009 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Jonathan said: > > > > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters. > > > > > > > > Interesting. > > > > > > In which case Labour better prepare for annihilation by the Brexit Party in its Leave seats in the North and Midlands and Wales even if they hold onto London and other big cities and university towns > > > > Or they might be saved by having the angry leaver vote split three ways between the Tories, the Brexit Nigel Party and the Purple Fash. > > Nope, the Brexit Party won most northern and Midlands and Welsh seats on Sunday
It would depend on a GE squeeze, wouldn't it? A revoke and remain party with a chance of winning may well get a lot of votes that went to the LDs and Greens last Thursday. The Brexit Party would also need a set of policies for a GE, not just one.
> @williamglenn said: > > @ah009 said: > > > @Jonathan said: > > > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters. > > > > > > Interesting. > > > > I'll believe it when I see it but that could induce me to vote Labour for the first time in my life. > > > > Could. > > If it’s coming from Corbynites, the “reform” will be Varoufakis-like hectoring.
I care a lot less about the reform bit. I mean, there are changes I'd like made, but revoke is everything right now.
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > > @Morris_Dancer said: > > > > > > > Mr. Meeks, hmm. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Is that because of subtle things, or because others have been cocking up? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > How're Boris' odds? > > > > > > > > > > > > Boris has held stable at just shy of 2/1. Personally I think he’s ridiculously short priced but obviously others know better. > > > > > > What range of price would he be if he made the last 2? > > > > Something like 1/3. His problem is before then in my view. > > That would make him roughly 5/4 to qualify if 2/1 is fair value to win. What do you think he is TQ?
> @IanB2 said: > > @DavidL said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > Is there a parliamentary route to a 2nd ref? A GE is more likely just because it can happen more easily. > > > > > > Quite so. I actually think fewer will want a GE, but as things develop they will be boxed in and a failure to agree on something can lead to a GE, whereas they need to actually agree something for a referendum. > > > > A GE before the refugees from the CUK fiasco find a home with the Lib Dems, if they are welcome, means that they leave the stage. It also almost certainly means a reasonable number of MPs from the Brexit Party in the current febrile state of things. Remainer MPs should be careful what they wish for. I think it is highly unlikely that the next Parliament will be as remainer dominated as this one has been. > > The remain vote looks larger by a reasonable margin than the leave vote. So your assumption depends on the remain vote being more fragmented than the leave vote, both being extremely fragmented right now. You may be right that BXP and the Tories may come to some sort of accommodation - but that's a big assumption. > > It's also likely that, even if remain parties cant come to some sort of deal, there'll be a lot of tactical voting on the remain side, and I'd expect a lot of effort by campaigners to go into organising and publicising this in a proxy for another vote on Brexit.
At a GE not all the remain and leave votes will be transferable between the parties as is being assumed above.
Brexit voters in the Euros will start to understand that Farage has repeatedly said universal NHS coverage is unaffordable and we should move to a private model. How will that play with leavers in post industrial towns with no savings? This issue alone gives them a lower ceiling than their Euros performance, combined with reluctant Tories and Labour supporters skipping the Euros, I would put their ceiling around 24-26%
The language the Brexit party has been using, and the success of their campaigning style will also give them a higher floor than UKIP had, somewhere in the 12-15% area.
With the Brexit party polling 12-26% a hung parliament would be extremely likely, the only plausible majorities would be Labour under a new leader or Brexit right at the top of that range with the next 3 parties all just sub 20%.
> @HYUFD said: > > @ah009 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Jonathan said: > > > > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters. > > > > > > > > Interesting. > > > > > > In which case Labour better prepare for annihilation by the Brexit Party in its Leave seats in the North and Midlands and Wales even if they hold onto London and other big cities and university towns > > > > Or they might be saved by having the angry leaver vote split three ways between the Tories, the Brexit Nigel Party and the Purple Fash. > > Nope, the Brexit Party won most northern and Midlands and Welsh seats on Sunday
In a low turnout d'Hondt election with a death row PM. It'd be foolish to ignore those results, but foolish also to assume that BXP will automatically retain those percentages on a much bigger turnout.
Bercow saying he'll stay on after all is about as surprising as Boris announcing he wants to be leader.
Sadly there’s no way of getting rid of a Speaker who doesn’t want to leave, even if large numbers of MPs no longer have confidence in his impartiality.
Except in a new parliament. That is at least one reason to have a GE.
Possibly yes. I now think an autumn election is looking more likely than not, for the reason that there simply isn’t a majority for anything Brexit-related in the current Parliament.
The only way I can see a breakthrough in this Parliament is if somehow the EU will move on the backstop, and the only chance that happens is if they genuinely think we’ll leave with no deal if they don’t.
Comments
It also means that he'll stand no-chance with the Conservative member dinosaurs, who are more interested in the 1940s or 1850s than the modern world ...
> > @YBarddCwsc said:
> > > @IanB2 said:.
> > >
> > > I thought so, but came to realise that it was because I wanted it to be so. She is a fresh, passionate and engaging politician, but very new, and still on a steep learning curve. Her enthusiasm leads her to say things spontaneously that sometimes aren’t that wise; good judgement is an essential quality for a leader and she has some work to do.
> > >
> > > Which does leave the LDs with a very limited field, but probably not as bad as you’d get if you selected at random the same small number of Tory or Labour MPs and then had to pick a leader from among them.
> >
> > -------------
> >
> > I agree.
> >
> > Dan Snow's Piece of Fake News -- when he said he got a piece of Brexit Party literature included with his ballot paper from the Council -- took her in completely (as well as Jolyon & Carole & pb.com's finest Remainers).
> >
> > Dan Snow later retracted, eating a big helping of Crow Pie.
> >
> > Even without the slap, Layla is a gamble. Maybe in 5 to 10 years.
>
> For an intelligent man, Dan S does say some strange things. Probably wise not to accept what he says unless he's working to a script.
> And, on topic, think I'd prefer Ms M to have another year or three before becoming Leader.
> What are Christine Jardine's chances? Didn't I read that her hat was in the ring?
> Seems like a mature, sensible, person.
As a Historian Dan Snow is less than mediocre. He fronts TV shows about history in which he reveals what has been known for tens if not hundreds of years by anyone who took the trouble to look at primary and serious secondary sources.
There are good historians on TV, obviously David Starkey is the Andrew Neill of them all. Dan Snow isn't even a Michael Crick.
(2) Don’t believe them, particularly Boris.
>
> And who knows what Parliament might result ?
> It would almost certainly be more polarised on Brexit, with an increase in both no dealers and revokers, and I wouldn’t like to begin to guess the Parliamentary numbers. FPTP could throw up some very strange results.
---
But, politicians are always optimists, and so they will always think the "very strange results" will be in their favour.
To No Deal Brexit may well be possible on 35 per cent of the vote, if the Brexit Party & the Tory Right collude.
The threshold for getting what you want is much lower in a GE.
That seems rather inconsistent with being a Lib Dem atm ...
> > @Nigelb said:
> >
> > And who knows what Parliament might result ?
> > It would almost certainly be more polarised on Brexit, with an increase in both no dealers and revokers, and I wouldn’t like to begin to guess the Parliamentary numbers. FPTP could throw up some very strange results.
>
> ---
>
> But, politicians are always optimists, and so they will always think the "very strange results" will be in their favour.
>
> To No Deal Brexit may well be possible on 35 per cent of the vote, if the Brexit Party & the Tory Right collude.
>
> The threshold for getting what you want is much lower in a GE.
No Tory PM is going into an election, not having ‘delivered’ Brexit, as an optimist. Though of course it’s a gamble which might be forced on them.
Just pointing out that there are no foregone conclusions. The lack of overlap between traditional and Brexit loyalties has seen to that.
> > @StuartDickson said:
>
> > > @oxfordsimon said:
>
> > > > @AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
>
> > > > > @rottenborough said:
>
> > > > > > @AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
>
> > > > > > > @Theuniondivvie said:
>
> > > > > > > McMomentum strikes back.
>
> > > > > > >
>
> > > > > > > https://twitter.com/LeonardForFM/status/1133475079432617984
>
>
>
> > > > > > >
>
> > > > > > > For the record, that 'remarkable wave of support' hasn't reached Glasgow twitter trends.
>
> > > > > >
>
> > > > > > Most of my ScotPol twitter timeline was people lol-ing at Scottish Labour's death throes/hoping for James Kelly as next leader for further laughs.
>
> > > > >
>
> > > > > Is this flood mainly from SNP handles?
>
> > > >
>
> > > > Support, wherever it comes from, is clearly welcomed.
>
> > >
>
> > > But it is immensely sad that they have to make such a fuss about receiving support.
>
> > >
>
> > > His days are clearly numbered and his team is in denial
>
> >
>
> > Leonard is currently my favourite politician. But I’m keeping an eye on Gove. Sometimes dreams really do come true.
>
>
>
> At least one of the supporters was smart enough to remind people what he actually looks like. I doubt 5% of Scots know.
>
> SLAB reminds me of UKIP, with its serial leaders each only briefly in post and vanishing afterwards. Each of lower stature than the predecessor, certain to be wound up as a going concern shortly.
Whilst that is all undoubtedly true and UKIP's demise seems certain it at least had pretensions to be a regular party with some internal democracy, policy structures, etc. TBP is entirely Farage's plaything, entirely under his somewhat capricious control. I am not sure that is a structure that can survive for long.
That said Corbyn does not look invulnerable anymore. At best he just doesnt seem exercised by Brexit the way he is on other issues and everyone can see that, so even if he commits to remain hes not displaying the qualities people liked about him.
Except the first ship, USS Gerald Ford, is basically complete and it would be incredibly problematic to convert the design to steam.
The guy is clueless. EMALS is problematic, but so are many new technologies, and it is the future.
(On the other hand, it indicates we might have dodged significant problems with our new carriers, given that any catapult system was going to be based on EMALS, given our hiomegrown system was abandoned.)
> > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > The reality is that in this parliament there isn’t a majority for any solution to Brexit. Yes, you can argue that somehow there might be, and maybe that will turn out to be the case, but we all really know that is pretty unlikely. So you either change the parliament or you seek to make the decision outside parliament. That’s the choice. An election or a referendum.
>
> >
>
> > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/there-s-no-avoiding-election-or-a-second-vote-8rqn087zt
>
> >
>
> > It will be a second referendum.
>
> >
>
> > Things have changed and a General Election, now, threatens survival of the Conservative Party, and decimation of a variety of Labour constituencies.
>
> >
>
> > It’s likely the new Parliament would be even more divided and factional than this one, totally hung, if such a thing is imaginable.
>
>
>
> I increasingly think a second referendum, narrow vote to remain, followed a couple of years later by a Brexit party majority and a disorderly no deal Brexit, quite possibly rejoining five years later is the most likely outcome now. A dialectic process. Testing both polar extremes to destruction before returning to some kind of consensus.
>
> I think Leave will win again
Possible, but I don't think that solves anything without another general election.
This Parliament simply will not allow Brexit to happen. That has been made eminently clear over the last three years. If we vote to leave again, we will be exactly where we are now. With a political class that will do absolutely anything, including a _third_ referendum ("are you sure? are you really, really sure?").
Which is why I think a GE with a Brexit Party win that sweeps away all before it, SNP style, is inevitable, sooner or later. I also expect a Brexit party government to be a chaotic failure that results in rejoin (though that's a bit of crystal ball gazing at this point).
> I'm beginning to sense a rumbling revolt beginning within the Labour Party. The Tories can hide behind their leadership election to bring about change. Labour which arguably performed worse than the Tories has no similar distraction. I'm not sure how this is going to show itself but there's definitely a feeling that the walls around Corbyn are cracking.
>
> Labour definitely did not perform worse, though still terribly.
>
> That said Corbyn does not look invulnerable anymore. At best he just doesnt seem exercised by Brexit the way he is on other issues and everyone can see that, so even if he commits to remain hes not displaying the qualities people liked about him.
Perhaps if the Palestinians sought EU membership he might get engaged?
> Is there a parliamentary route to a 2nd ref? A GE is more likely just because it can happen more easily.
>
> Quite so. I actually think fewer will want a GE, but as things develop they will be boxed in and a failure to agree on something can lead to a GE, whereas they need to actually agree something for a referendum.
A GE before the refugees from the CUK fiasco find a home with the Lib Dems, if they are welcome, means that they leave the stage. It also almost certainly means a reasonable number of MPs from the Brexit Party in the current febrile state of things. Remainer MPs should be careful what they wish for. I think it is highly unlikely that the next Parliament will be as remainer dominated as this one has been.
It doesn't say much for the current crop of MPs, does it?
> > @AndyJS said:
> > I think Layla Moran would make a better LD leader.
>
> I thought so, but came to realise that it was because I wanted it to be so. She is a fresh, passionate and engaging politician, but very new, and still on a steep learning curve. Her enthusiasm leads her to say things spontaneously that sometimes aren’t that wise; good judgement is an essential quality for a leader and she has some work to do.
>
> Which does leave the LDs with a very limited field, but probably not as bad as you’d get if you selected at random the same small number of Tory or Labour MPs and then had to pick a leader from among them.
The LibDems need to find a way of letting non-MPs stand for the leadership this time. With the right leader they should be able to build on recent performances but I fear none of the small group of MPs is going to make the necessary breakthrough.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > I think Layla Moran would make a better LD leader.
> >
> > I thought so, but came to realise that it was because I wanted it to be so. She is a fresh, passionate and engaging politician, but very new, and still on a steep learning curve. Her enthusiasm leads her to say things spontaneously that sometimes aren’t that wise; good judgement is an essential quality for a leader and she has some work to do.
> >
> > Which does leave the LDs with a very limited field, but probably not as bad as you’d get if you selected at random the same small number of Tory or Labour MPs and then had to pick a leader from among them.
>
> The LibDems need to find a way of letting non-MPs stand for the leadership this time. With the right leader they should be able to build on recent performances but I fear none of the small group of MPs is going to make the necessary breakthrough.
That was put formally to the last party conference by Cable (who he had in mind remains a mystery) and rejected.
> https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1133620982227316736
A referendum gives a better chance of an unambiguous outcome. At the moment an election could result in a Brexit Party majority on 32% of the vote and 60% of the voters totally opposed to their Brexit solution.
> This Farage character, badly flawed, sets up virtually his own party with only one policy. Previously having led Ukip to intimidate Cameron into calling a referendum, besting Clegg in debate on his own pet subject, is obviously a poor politician.
>
> It doesn't say much for the current crop of MPs, does it?
Good campaigner and good politician aren't the same thing, at all. Farage seems to fall out with everyone he works with; if the BXP wins P'Boro it is surely only a matter of time before the new MP's status as the only BXP in Parliament brings him into conflict with Farage's ego.
If Remain did win, unless it were by a large margin, then those opposed to the EU might have legitimate cause for disgruntlement that they won multiple votes which didn't count, yet a single pro-EU win is set in stone.
Mr. B2, indeed. It's a little reminiscent of Boris.
> > @kle4 said:
> > Is there a parliamentary route to a 2nd ref? A GE is more likely just because it can happen more easily.
> >
> > Quite so. I actually think fewer will want a GE, but as things develop they will be boxed in and a failure to agree on something can lead to a GE, whereas they need to actually agree something for a referendum.
>
> A GE before the refugees from the CUK fiasco find a home with the Lib Dems, if they are welcome, means that they leave the stage. It also almost certainly means a reasonable number of MPs from the Brexit Party in the current febrile state of things. Remainer MPs should be careful what they wish for. I think it is highly unlikely that the next Parliament will be as remainer dominated as this one has been.
The remain vote looks larger by a reasonable margin than the leave vote. So your assumption depends on the remain vote being more fragmented than the leave vote, both being extremely fragmented right now. You may be right that BXP and the Tories may come to some sort of accommodation - but that's a big assumption.
It's also likely that, even if remain parties cant come to some sort of deal, there'll be a lot of tactical voting on the remain side, and I'd expect a lot of effort by campaigners to go into organising and publicising this in a proxy for another vote on Brexit.
That can be ignored, though, because it's 'populism'. If the LDs become even more popular, might they risk the danger of becoming populist?
However, that’s where we’re at.
> Mr. T, unless one side wins by a narrow margin. Then it seems we'll just prolong/deepen the division.
>
> If Remain did win, unless it were by a large margin, then those opposed to the EU might have legitimate cause for disgruntlement that they won multiple votes which didn't count, yet a single pro-EU win is set in stone.
>
> Mr. B2, indeed. It's a little reminiscent of Boris.
If the result of the first referendum isn't respected, if we are made to vote again - and this time it is a narrow remain win - why on earth should any leaver respect the result of the second referendum?
The easiest way to secure Brexit will be for disgruntled leavers to win a majority in a GE on 35-40% of the vote against a fragmented opposition. Which I think is almost an inevitability if the referendum is re-run without an absolutely massive consensus for Remain.
>
Surely it would depend on whether or not foreign powers had had any input into the result.
Can we be sure that the recent elections to the EU Parliament were entirely clean?
>
> Labour and the Conservatives are still fighting very old wars and *still* seeing Brexit as a tool with which they can stiff the other, whereas it actually threatens both their survival and - it they want any future at all - they need to work together to resolve it.
>
> However, that’s where we’re at.
----
It is a superb example of the Prisoner's Dilemma.
> I'm beginning to sense a rumbling revolt beginning within the Labour Party. The Tories can hide behind their leadership election to bring about change. Labour which arguably performed worse than the Tories has no similar distraction. I'm not sure how this is going to show itself but there's definitely a feeling that the walls around Corbyn are cracking.
>
> Labour definitely did not perform worse, though still terribly.
>
> That said Corbyn does not look invulnerable anymore. At best he just doesnt seem exercised by Brexit the way he is on other issues and everyone can see that, so even if he commits to remain hes not displaying the qualities people liked about him.
Taking the bigger picture, our politics continues to morph toward some sort of socially conservative/nationalist and socially liberal/globalist divide, which presents both of the big parties with a very significant challenge.
Of the two, while they haven't faced it yet (although May's speech on taking office recognised some of what is implied), I think the Tories may better able to adapt. There's a model from the US of a party led by wealthy people from big business relying on a predominantly working class/rural base (although the Tories wont be able to use a religion card). The geographical, policy and personnel shifts that this change implies would be very traumatic for the Tories, but it clearly can happen, and since neither UKIP nor Farage looks like a viable proposition long-term, they may not face much competition.
For Labour, things are much more difficult. Partly because there are several long-established competitors for the crown. But largely because of its history and culture, born from the working class struggle for enfranchisement and workplace rights, in a way that isn't true for the US Democrats (Degler's classic tome on US history analyses how the US political system took shape after the key class struggles had already been won). I think Labour would find the changes needed to become a liberal rather than labour party extremely difficult - the howls from the likes of Nandy, Flint and the union bosses are only the start. If it weren't for our voting system you'd have to conclude that the LibDems provide the better vehicle, and if the remain wave continues they could be able to start to build the firm geographical base they would need to take on Labour and win.
> > @Morris_Dancer said:
> > Mr. T, unless one side wins by a narrow margin. Then it seems we'll just prolong/deepen the division.
> >
> > If Remain did win, unless it were by a large margin, then those opposed to the EU might have legitimate cause for disgruntlement that they won multiple votes which didn't count, yet a single pro-EU win is set in stone.
> >
> > Mr. B2, indeed. It's a little reminiscent of Boris.
>
> If the result of the first referendum isn't respected, if we are made to vote again - and this time it is a narrow remain win - why on earth should any leaver respect the result of the second referendum?
>
> The easiest way to secure Brexit will be for disgruntled leavers to win a majority in a GE on 35-40% of the vote against a fragmented opposition. Which I think is almost an inevitability if the referendum is re-run without an absolutely massive consensus for Remain.
A referendum only solves things if Leave wins and probably only Leave with the Withdrawal Agreement, if Remain wins unless by at least 70% to 30% then the Brexit Party would likely win the next general election on an SNP 2015 style backlash
> https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1133627133639692289
>
>
>
> Is Mark Harper a no dealer, no hoper or has no profile?
Harper was a Remainer
> > @CD13 said:
> > This Farage character, badly flawed, sets up virtually his own party with only one policy. Previously having led Ukip to intimidate Cameron into calling a referendum, besting Clegg in debate on his own pet subject, is obviously a poor politician.
> >
> > It doesn't say much for the current crop of MPs, does it?
>
> Good campaigner and good politician aren't the same thing, at all. Farage seems to fall out with everyone he works with; if the BXP wins P'Boro it is surely only a matter of time before the new MP's status as the only BXP in Parliament brings him into conflict with Farage's ego.
Shouting over people and interrupting is hardly debating, is it?
> https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1133621818387046400
>
>
>
> Where does Nandy think the 15% of Wigan voters who moved to Green and LibDem came from? Far more likely to be former Labour voters than Tory.
The Brexit Party and Tories and UKIP were comfortably over 50% of the vote in Wigan on Sunday
> Rather than Nigel being the political giant crushing the pygmies before him, might a better explanation be that he has captured a groundswell of public opinion?
>
> That can be ignored, though, because it's 'populism'. If the LDs become even more popular, might they risk the danger of becoming populist?
"Populism" does not mean "being popular". You can be one or the other, neither, or both.
It might help you to get a working definition of the term.
I think Farage has many flaws. However I am puzzled by political logic. It starts with the axiom that whatever I believe is correct and leads on to the conclusion that those who disagree must inevitably be wrong.
I have no background in philosophy so those with a degree in PPE (a third of it philosophy) must be able to pinpoint the flaw here. Democracy is good unless I decide it is populism.
> > @kle4 said:
> > I'm beginning to sense a rumbling revolt beginning within the Labour Party. The Tories can hide behind their leadership election to bring about change. Labour which arguably performed worse than the Tories has no similar distraction. I'm not sure how this is going to show itself but there's definitely a feeling that the walls around Corbyn are cracking.
> >
> > Labour definitely did not perform worse, though still terribly.
> >
> > That said Corbyn does not look invulnerable anymore. At best he just doesnt seem exercised by Brexit the way he is on other issues and everyone can see that, so even if he commits to remain hes not displaying the qualities people liked about him.
>
> Taking the bigger picture, our politics continues to morph toward some sort of socially conservative/nationalist and socially liberal/globalist divide, which presents both of the big parties with a very significant challenge.
>
> Of the two, while they haven't faced it yet (although May's speech on taking office recognised some of what is implied), I think the Tories may better able to adapt. There's a model from the US of a party led by wealthy people from big business relying on a predominantly working class/rural base (although the Tories wont be able to use a religion card). The geographical, policy and personnel shifts that this change implies would be very traumatic for the Tories, but it clearly can happen, and since neither UKIP nor Farage looks like a viable proposition long-term, they may not face much competition.
>
> For Labour, things are much more difficult. Partly because there are several long-established competitors for the crown. But largely because of its history and culture, born from the working class struggle for enfranchisement and workplace rights, in a way that isn't true for the US Democrats (Degler's classic tome on US history analyses how the US political system took shape after the key class struggles had already been won). I think Labour would find the changes needed to become a liberal rather than labour party extremely difficult - the howls from the likes of Nandy, Flint and the union bosses are only the start. If it weren't for our voting system you'd have to conclude that the LibDems provide the better vehicle, and if the remain wave continues they could be able to start to build the firm geographical base they would need to take on Labour and win.
>
If Labour becomes the party of Remain as their sister party showed in the recent Australian general election showed while they would do well in urban and city areas they could kiss goodbye to working class industrial towns and much of the outer suburbs.
The Australian Labor Party emerged from working class Queensland where it was trounced a fortnight ago, it is not impossible to imagine pro Remain Labour even losing Merthyr, home of Keir Hardie, to the Brexit Party or possibly even a pro Brexit Tories
Interesting.
The space where the EMCATS hardware would have been is now occupied by the ops centre so QE class will never be going CATOBAR now.
Trump actually said future carrier orders would revert to steam so Ford, JFK and probably Enterprise will use EMALS. It would be theoretically possible to revert CVN-81 which gets laid down in 2023 to steam but it almost certainly won't.
So populism is a subjective term? Ah, that explains a lot.
> > @Morris_Dancer said:
> > Mr. T, unless one side wins by a narrow margin. Then it seems we'll just prolong/deepen the division.
> >
> > If Remain did win, unless it were by a large margin, then those opposed to the EU might have legitimate cause for disgruntlement that they won multiple votes which didn't count, yet a single pro-EU win is set in stone.
> >
> > Mr. B2, indeed. It's a little reminiscent of Boris.
>
> If the result of the first referendum isn't respected, if we are made to vote again - and this time it is a narrow remain win - why on earth should any leaver respect the result of the second referendum?
>
> The easiest way to secure Brexit will be for disgruntled leavers to win a majority in a GE on 35-40% of the vote against a fragmented opposition. Which I think is almost an inevitability if the referendum is re-run without an absolutely massive consensus for Remain.
No side after a political defeat is likely to give up the struggle.
If Leave won again, whether the matter becomes "settled" depends largely on how smooth and harmless the subsequent departure turns out to be. If the country does OK after Brexit and life carries on, remain would probably slowly wither away as an issue. If however there is significant disruption and economic damage, the pressure to rejoin would become irresistible.
Conversely, if Remain won again, settling the matter relies upon the silent majority without strong views not wanting to relive the political horrors of recent years. In the short term that's quite likely; indeed the threatened "backlash" from unhappy leavers could accelerate this as a counter-reaction. Whether anti-EU sentiment returned in the longer-term would depend on how the EU develops politically and economically; one thing we would have which we didn't before is a political class aware and determined to make a more positive case for membership.
> > @kle4 said:
> > https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1133627133639692289
> >
> >
> >
> > Is Mark Harper a no dealer, no hoper or has no profile?
>
> Harper was a Remainer
Harper did vote against the Withdrawal Agreement twice though because of the backstop
Is that because of subtle things, or because others have been cocking up?
How're Boris' odds?
> FPT:
> Good morning, everyone.
>
> As predicted by me just yesterday, Gollum won't relinquish the Precious:
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48441344
>
> Bercow saying he'll stay on after all is about as surprising as Boris announcing he wants to be leader.
>
> Sadly there’s no way of getting rid of a Speaker who doesn’t want to leave, even if large numbers of MPs no longer have confidence in his impartiality.
The Speaker is reelected at the start of each parliament, although normally the old Speaker is unopposed. Nonetheless, Bercow has been elected several times now.
Where is this "widespread" opposition to Bercow? Mostly it came from the Cameron government because Bercow championed backbenchers over the executive. It is only since Brexit that some Leavers have started to complain as well.
But in a sense Bercow is like May, Thatcher and Churchill. Now is never the right time to go. There is always just one more crisis to deal with. See also this week's un-resignation of Angela Merkel.
> Andrea Leadsom is coming in like a train on the betting. She was last matched on Betfair for next Prime Minister at 9 (8/1 in old money).
I’m surprised; at least one of her supporters from 2016 is backing Raab (Michael Tomlinson)
> There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters.
>
> Interesting.
Out of interest do they say what the Reform bit would entail and how it would be achieved ?
Will it perhaps be giving up the rest of the Rebate in return for a promise to look at CAP reform in the fullness of time ?
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1133627133639692289
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Is Mark Harper a no dealer, no hoper or has no profile?
> >
> > Harper was a Remainer
>
> Harper did vote against the Withdrawal Agreement twice though because of the backstop
There is an impressive self-delusion in the Tory parliamentary party. The triumph of the human spirit over reality.
> Think farage has missed a trick not standing in Peterborough. There's scarcely ever going to be a better narrative for him. Hot off the victory of EU elections, Pro-brexit constituency, Tories eating themselves, LDs way behind and the previous Lab MP is a convict.
The Brexit Party will win Peterborough easily regardless, in any case Farage after Sunday's results is now leader of the joint biggest single party in the European Parliament with the CDU so has bigger fish to fry than just being a backbench MP.
If he stands for Westminster again it will be with MPs having failed to deliver Brexit and with a good chance of becoming PM
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1133616720390885376
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1133618049674821633
>
> A root and branch review of all its processes would have been a very sensible thing to do, three or six months ago - especially if they wanted to add pressure onto Labour. It's probably a bit late now.
It's never too late. The Conservative Party needs to weed out its racists. They should have started long ago, but that can't be changed. Start now and in a few years get a clean bill of health.
I actually had more faith in them than Labour, but they both look as bad as each other on this.
> > If the result of the first referendum isn't respected, if we are made to vote again - and this time it is a narrow remain win - why on earth should any leaver respect the result of the second referendum?
> >
> Surely it would depend on whether or not foreign powers had had any input into the result.
>
> Can we be sure that the recent elections to the EU Parliament were entirely clean?
>
Certainly the LDs have form with dodgy campaigns..yet they still lose.
> > @Jonathan said:
> > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters.
> >
> > Interesting.
>
> Out of interest do they say what the Reform bit would entail and how it would be achieved ?
>
> Will it perhaps be giving up the rest of the Rebate in return for a promise to look at CAP reform in the fullness of time ?
The whole'lets turn the EU into a social paradise' has been a pipedream for the far left for years.
> There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters.
>
> Interesting.
In which case Labour better prepare for annihilation by the Brexit Party in its Leave seats in the North and Midlands and Wales even if they hold onto London and other big cities and university towns
> Mr a009,
>
> So populism is a subjective term? Ah, that explains a lot.
No, it is not. It is certainly disputed, and some regard it as a pejorative term (I don't; there is a necessary place for populism), but it means something and the Lib Dems simply aren't it. The Greens, whom I voted for in the Euros, are (partially) populist.
> Think farage has missed a trick not standing in Peterborough. There's scarcely ever going to be a better narrative for him. Hot off the victory of EU elections, Pro-brexit constituency, Tories eating themselves, LDs way behind and the previous Lab MP is a convict.
I disagree. The candidate that the Brexit Party have selected is a credible figure. A well known local benefactor with a good track record in public life who cannot be held up as a divisive figure in any shape or form. He is capable of a broader appeal and of defusing the claims that people would be voting for an extremist.
> Mr. Meeks, hmm.
>
> Is that because of subtle things, or because others have been cocking up?
>
> How're Boris' odds?
Boris has held stable at just shy of 2/1. Personally I think he’s ridiculously short priced but obviously others know better.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > Andrea Leadsom is coming in like a train on the betting. She was last matched on Betfair for next Prime Minister at 9 (8/1 in old money).
>
> I’m surprised; at least one of her supporters from 2016 is backing Raab (Michael Tomlinson)
It is possible that Leadsom might be the last Brexiteer standing if Gove and Boris (and now Raab) cut each other's throats again. It is a question of working out (that is the polite term for wildly guessing) how supporters will switch once their first choice is eliminated, and Leadsom surely has as much claim as Raab to switchers. She is more experienced and knows the south coast ports like the back of her hand. If memory serves, she has also taken part in television debates, which experience might help here.
> There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters.
>
> Interesting.
I'll believe it when I see it but that could induce me to vote Labour for the first time in my life.
Could.
> > @Jonathan said:
> > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters.
> >
> > Interesting.
>
> I'll believe it when I see it but that could induce me to vote Labour for the first time in my life.
>
> Could.
If it’s coming from Corbynites, the “reform” will be Varoufakis-like hectoring.
Any problems with EMALS will be sorted out or worked around by midway through the next decade. It's a problematic technology, but then AIUI so are the old steam catapults - it's just that they've had six decades of experience with it.
I've just been trying to imagine which system - steam or electric - is more robust after an attack. Electric depends on getting the power to the catapults, but steam relies on pressurised pipework and the steam storage vessels, all of which are very vulnerable. I'd guess electric is much more robust.
> > @Jonathan said:
> > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters.
> >
> > Interesting.
>
> In which case Labour better prepare for annihilation by the Brexit Party in its Leave seats in the North and Midlands and Wales even if they hold onto London and other big cities and university towns
You are Theresa May AICMFP. The 2017 general election shows that not everything is about Brexit. The European elections were, of course, which damaged both the major parties whose Brexit positions were nuanced, to put it politely. But in a general election, Crush the Saboteurs might work for Nigel Farage no better than it did for Theresa May.
> > @Morris_Dancer said:
>
> > Mr. Meeks, hmm.
>
> >
>
> > Is that because of subtle things, or because others have been cocking up?
>
> >
>
> > How're Boris' odds?
>
>
>
> Boris has held stable at just shy of 2/1. Personally I think he’s ridiculously short priced but obviously others know better.
>
> What range of price would he be if he made the last 2?
Something like 1/3. His problem is before then in my view.
> > @Mortimer said:
>
> > > @AlastairMeeks said:
>
> > > Andrea Leadsom is coming in like a train on the betting. She was last matched on Betfair for next Prime Minister at 9 (8/1 in old money).
>
> >
>
> > I’m surprised; at least one of her supporters from 2016 is backing Raab (Michael Tomlinson)
>
>
>
> It is possible that Leadsom might be the last Brexiteer standing if Gove and Boris (and now Raab) cut each other's throats again. It is a question of working out (that is the polite term for wildly guessing) how supporters will switch once their first choice is eliminated, and Leadsom surely has as much claim as Raab to switchers. She is more experienced and knows the south coast ports like the back of her hand. If memory serves, she has also taken part in television debates, which experience might help here.
>
> I think I floated her as the dark horse in this contest a week or two ago.
She was my tip in my round up a couple of weeks back.
> https://twitter.com/sajidjavid/status/1133624948495405056?s=20
PMQs write themselves. Does the PM agree with the HS that her police cuts ...
> > @Jonathan said:
> > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters.
> >
> > Interesting.
>
> In which case Labour better prepare for annihilation by the Brexit Party in its Leave seats in the North and Midlands and Wales even if they hold onto London and other big cities and university towns
Or they might be saved by having the angry leaver vote split three ways between the Tories, the Brexit Nigel Party and the Purple Fash.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> > > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters.
> > >
> > > Interesting.
> >
> > In which case Labour better prepare for annihilation by the Brexit Party in its Leave seats in the North and Midlands and Wales even if they hold onto London and other big cities and university towns
>
> Or they might be saved by having the angry leaver vote split three ways between the Tories, the Brexit Nigel Party and the Purple Fash.
Nope, the Brexit Party won most northern and Midlands and Welsh seats on Sunday
> > @Jonathan said:
> > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters.
> >
> > Interesting.
>
> In which case Labour better prepare for annihilation by the Brexit Party in its Leave seats in the North and Midlands and Wales even if they hold onto London and other big cities and university towns
I don't think that is true if it's partnered with a strong left-wing offer across the board. Could be rather compelling.
> She was my tip in my round up a couple of weeks back.
I didn't believe you back then, but I've been hearing warm words about her from non political friends, so I eventually followed you on. Smart tip.
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Jonathan said:
> > > > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters.
> > > >
> > > > Interesting.
> > >
> > > In which case Labour better prepare for annihilation by the Brexit Party in its Leave seats in the North and Midlands and Wales even if they hold onto London and other big cities and university towns
> >
> > Or they might be saved by having the angry leaver vote split three ways between the Tories, the Brexit Nigel Party and the Purple Fash.
>
> Nope, the Brexit Party won most northern and Midlands and Welsh seats on Sunday
It would depend on a GE squeeze, wouldn't it? A revoke and remain party with a chance of winning may well get a lot of votes that went to the LDs and Greens last Thursday. The Brexit Party would also need a set of policies for a GE, not just one.
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> > > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters.
> > >
> > > Interesting.
> >
> > I'll believe it when I see it but that could induce me to vote Labour for the first time in my life.
> >
> > Could.
>
> If it’s coming from Corbynites, the “reform” will be Varoufakis-like hectoring.
I care a lot less about the reform bit. I mean, there are changes I'd like made, but revoke is everything right now.
> https://twitter.com/sajidjavid/status/1133624948495405056?s=20
That's quite an admission from Sajid.
> > @isam said:
>
> > > @Morris_Dancer said:
>
> >
>
> > > Mr. Meeks, hmm.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Is that because of subtle things, or because others have been cocking up?
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > How're Boris' odds?
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Boris has held stable at just shy of 2/1. Personally I think he’s ridiculously short priced but obviously others know better.
>
> >
>
> > What range of price would he be if he made the last 2?
>
>
>
> Something like 1/3. His problem is before then in my view.
>
> That would make him roughly 5/4 to qualify if 2/1 is fair value to win. What do you think he is TQ?
Something like 8/1.
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > Is there a parliamentary route to a 2nd ref? A GE is more likely just because it can happen more easily.
> > >
> > > Quite so. I actually think fewer will want a GE, but as things develop they will be boxed in and a failure to agree on something can lead to a GE, whereas they need to actually agree something for a referendum.
> >
> > A GE before the refugees from the CUK fiasco find a home with the Lib Dems, if they are welcome, means that they leave the stage. It also almost certainly means a reasonable number of MPs from the Brexit Party in the current febrile state of things. Remainer MPs should be careful what they wish for. I think it is highly unlikely that the next Parliament will be as remainer dominated as this one has been.
>
> The remain vote looks larger by a reasonable margin than the leave vote. So your assumption depends on the remain vote being more fragmented than the leave vote, both being extremely fragmented right now. You may be right that BXP and the Tories may come to some sort of accommodation - but that's a big assumption.
>
> It's also likely that, even if remain parties cant come to some sort of deal, there'll be a lot of tactical voting on the remain side, and I'd expect a lot of effort by campaigners to go into organising and publicising this in a proxy for another vote on Brexit.
At a GE not all the remain and leave votes will be transferable between the parties as is being assumed above.
Brexit voters in the Euros will start to understand that Farage has repeatedly said universal NHS coverage is unaffordable and we should move to a private model. How will that play with leavers in post industrial towns with no savings? This issue alone gives them a lower ceiling than their Euros performance, combined with reluctant Tories and Labour supporters skipping the Euros, I would put their ceiling around 24-26%
The language the Brexit party has been using, and the success of their campaigning style will also give them a higher floor than UKIP had, somewhere in the 12-15% area.
With the Brexit party polling 12-26% a hung parliament would be extremely likely, the only plausible majorities would be Labour under a new leader or Brexit right at the top of that range with the next 3 parties all just sub 20%.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/sajidjavid/status/1133624948495405056?s=20
>
> That's quite an admission from Sajid.
it's the home sec to try to pitch for more funding, it's the treasury's job to say no.
But in this case, it's hard to argue police shouldn't be funded.
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Jonathan said:
> > > > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters.
> > > >
> > > > Interesting.
> > >
> > > In which case Labour better prepare for annihilation by the Brexit Party in its Leave seats in the North and Midlands and Wales even if they hold onto London and other big cities and university towns
> >
> > Or they might be saved by having the angry leaver vote split three ways between the Tories, the Brexit Nigel Party and the Purple Fash.
>
> Nope, the Brexit Party won most northern and Midlands and Welsh seats on Sunday
In a low turnout d'Hondt election with a death row PM. It'd be foolish to ignore those results, but foolish also to assume that BXP will automatically retain those percentages on a much bigger turnout.
The only way I can see a breakthrough in this Parliament is if somehow the EU will move on the backstop, and the only chance that happens is if they genuinely think we’ll leave with no deal if they don’t.