> @DecrepitJohnL said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Jonathan said: > > > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters. > > > > > > Interesting. > > > > In which case Labour better prepare for annihilation by the Brexit Party in its Leave seats in the North and Midlands and Wales even if they hold onto London and other big cities and university towns > > You are Theresa May AICMFP. The 2017 general election shows that not everything is about Brexit. The European elections were, of course, which damaged both the major parties whose Brexit positions were nuanced, to put it politely. But in a general election, Crush the Saboteurs might work for Nigel Farage no better than it did for Theresa May.
In FPTP the impact will depend on how the other parties handle things. A grand coalition of remain parties is likely to do rather better than those parties individually.
What I'm still trying to work out is where does Labour stand if the tories and Nigel run a jointish slate...
> @Sandpit said: > FPT: > Good morning, everyone. > > As predicted by me just yesterday, Gollum won't relinquish the Precious: > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48441344 > > Bercow saying he'll stay on after all is about as surprising as Boris announcing he wants to be leader. > > Sadly there’s no way of getting rid of a Speaker who doesn’t want to leave, even if large numbers of MPs no longer have confidence in his impartiality. > > Except in a new parliament. That is at least one reason to have a GE. > > > Possibly yes. I now think an autumn election is looking more likely than not, for the reason that there simply isn’t a majority for anything Brexit-related in the current Parliament. > > The only way I can see a breakthrough in this Parliament is if somehow the EU will move on the backstop, and the only chance that happens is if they genuinely think we’ll leave with no deal if they don’t.
Conservative MPs are not going to vote for the death of Conservative party.
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > > @isam said: > > > > > > > > @Morris_Dancer said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Mr. Meeks, hmm. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Is that because of subtle things, or because others have been cocking up? > > > > How're Boris' odds? > > > > Boris has held stable at just shy of 2/1. Personally I think he’s ridiculously short priced but obviously others know better. > > > > What range of price would he be if he made the last 2? > > > Something like 1/3. His problem is before then in my view. > > > > > > That would make him roughly 5/4 to qualify if 2/1 is fair value to win. What do you think he is TQ? > > > > Something like 8/1. > > Shouldn’t you be hoovering up the money wanting to back him at 13/8-2/1???
> @rottenborough said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > She was my tip in my round up a couple of weeks back. > > > > I didn't believe you back then, but I've been hearing warm words about her from non political friends, so I eventually followed you on. Smart tip. > > Thanks. But my track record is patchy. Don't mention Clinton to me.
I won huge on Brexit and Trump. Getting the same feeling for Remain if a referendum can be extracted from these ne'erdowells.
> @Cicero said: > > @Sandpit said: > > FPT: > > Good morning, everyone. > > > > As predicted by me just yesterday, Gollum won't relinquish the Precious: > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48441344 > > > > Bercow saying he'll stay on after all is about as surprising as Boris announcing he wants to be leader. > > > > Sadly there’s no way of getting rid of a Speaker who doesn’t want to leave, even if large numbers of MPs no longer have confidence in his impartiality. > > > > Except in a new parliament. That is at least one reason to have a GE. > > > > > > Possibly yes. I now think an autumn election is looking more likely than not, for the reason that there simply isn’t a majority for anything Brexit-related in the current Parliament. > > > > The only way I can see a breakthrough in this Parliament is if somehow the EU will move on the backstop, and the only chance that happens is if they genuinely think we’ll leave with no deal if they don’t. > > Conservative MPs are not going to vote for the death of Conservative party.
Funny piece by Dan Hannan where he correctly describes how none of the options all the current leadership contenders are affecting to support will work, then affects not to be able to think of a solution.
> @Scott_P said: > Is BoZo's cunning campaign stunt this time to not make any appearances or do any interviews in case people remember how useless he really is?
It may have something to do with the period leading upto the 10th June when nominations close and Boris does not want to show his hand until he knows who is standing and he can tailor his unicorns (sorry programme) to maximise his chances
Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course.
I heard an interesting quote from a Tory this morning with reference to keeping 'no deal' on the table. They said "What sort of a bargaining chip is it to point a gun at your head and say if you don't agree to our deal I'm going to blow my brains out"
> > The reality is that in this parliament there isn’t a majority for any solution to Brexit. Yes, you can argue that somehow there might be, and maybe that will turn out to be the case, but we all really know that is pretty unlikely. So you either change the parliament or you seek to make the decision outside parliament. That’s the choice. An election or a referendum.
> > Things have changed and a General Election, now, threatens survival of the Conservative Party, and decimation of a variety of Labour constituencies.
>
> >
>
> > It’s likely the new Parliament would be even more divided and factional than this one, totally hung, if such a thing is imaginable.
>
>
>
> I increasingly think a second referendum, narrow vote to remain, followed a couple of years later by a Brexit party majority and a disorderly no deal Brexit, quite possibly rejoining five years later is the most likely outcome now. A dialectic process. Testing both polar extremes to destruction before returning to some kind of consensus.
>
> I think Leave will win again
Possible, but I don't think that solves anything without another general election.
This Parliament simply will not allow Brexit to happen. That has been made eminently clear over the last three years. If we vote to leave again, we will be exactly where we are now. With a political class that will do absolutely anything, including a _third_ referendum ("are you sure? are you really, really sure?").
Which is why I think a GE with a Brexit Party win that sweeps away all before it, SNP style, is inevitable, sooner or later. I also expect a Brexit party government to be a chaotic failure that results in rejoin (though that's a bit of crystal ball gazing at this point).
Once the Brexit Party reveals its GE manifesto, starting with Trumpian health policies, their pretensions to govern will fall as quickly as Farage's jowls after the fourth pint.
Brexit just isn't a high priority for most voters compared to traditional wedge issues, as we saw at GE2017.
> > Conservative MPs are not going to vote for the death of Conservative party.
Which ones? The Conservative MPs who first elected Theresa May, or the ones who banged their desks in applause after GE2017, or the ones who supported May in the confidence vote?
> @Roger said: > I heard an interesting quote from a Tory this morning with reference to keeping 'no deal' on the table. They said "What sort of a bargaining chip is it to point a gun at your head and say if you don't agree to our deal I'm going to blow my brains out" >
It really isnt a bad position for a hardcore outsider leaver to take. They would have to be believed as a leaver for it not to be seen as a plot but someone like Baker could take the we have told them once and we will tell them again line, point out no-one else has a realistic approach to actually delivering Brexit.
He might end up attracting support from some remainers and pragmatists as well as the leavers who think they would win a 2nd ref. Somehow he will have to differentiate from the leading candidates and this seems as good a way as any.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > A particular peach is when he pretends the referendum campaign wasn’t about immigration.
I know, can you imagine if TMay had come back with a deal where people from the rest of the EU could still work in the UK without restriction? If she'd survived long enough to put it to a vote it would have got about 4 Tories.
Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
If we get a snap election, surely Farage will simply say that he has only one policy, which is to leave the EU as quickly as possible - and that he'll resign and call another election shortly after we've left?
That approach sure beats needing a fully-developed and costed manifesto on a range of other policy areas, each of which could upset many potential pro-Brexit supporters?
Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course.
It still leaves it with about 20% in a GE which, given the likely %s of the other 3 contenders, gives it a fair chance of being in govt
> @ah009 said: > > @Roger said: > > I heard an interesting quote from a Tory this morning with reference to keeping 'no deal' on the table. They said "What sort of a bargaining chip is it to point a gun at your head and say if you don't agree to our deal I'm going to blow my brains out" > > > > Brains?
Particularly when both sides negotiating know that parliament took the bullets out of the gun before you pointed it at your head.......
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @ah009 said: > > > @Roger said: > > > I heard an interesting quote from a Tory this morning with reference to keeping 'no deal' on the table. They said "What sort of a bargaining chip is it to point a gun at your head and say if you don't agree to our deal I'm going to blow my brains out" > > > > > > > Brains? > > Particularly when both sides negotiating know that parliament took the bullets out of the gun before you pointed it at your head.......
How could they have seen us? We were covering our eyes!
In other news, President Trump wants to convert the new aircraft carriers from the new electric EMALS catapult / arrester system to steam.
Except the first ship, USS Gerald Ford, is basically complete and it would be incredibly problematic to convert the design to steam.
The guy is clueless. EMALS is problematic, but so are many new technologies, and it is the future.
(On the other hand, it indicates we might have dodged significant problems with our new carriers, given that any catapult system was going to be based on EMALS, given our hiomegrown system was abandoned.)
CATOBAR was never a viable option for the QE class as a) the ship isn't really fast enough which would lead to payload constrained launches and b) it triples the manning requirement of the air wing compared to STOVL.
The space where the EMCATS hardware would have been is now occupied by the ops centre so QE class will never be going CATOBAR now.
Trump actually said future carrier orders would revert to steam so Ford, JFK and probably Enterprise will use EMALS. It would be theoretically possible to revert CVN-81 which gets laid down in 2023 to steam but it almost certainly won't.
If the US want a new carrier in service every three or four years (in order to maintain ten or so operational carriers), then they need to get redesigning CVN-81 damned quickly. Although as you say, they probably won't.
Any problems with EMALS will be sorted out or worked around by midway through the next decade. It's a problematic technology, but then AIUI so are the old steam catapults - it's just that they've had six decades of experience with it.
I've just been trying to imagine which system - steam or electric - is more robust after an attack. Electric depends on getting the power to the catapults, but steam relies on pressurised pipework and the steam storage vessels, all of which are very vulnerable. I'd guess electric is much more robust.
EMALS has less moving parts and its easier to fix cables than pipes.
EMALS also has a more progressive stroke which reduces airframe fatigue and both higher and lower weight limits. There is also less chance of the much dreaded "cold cat" where speed at the end of the stroke is less than anticipated. It's just a far superior system and Trump is an ignorant cock.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @rottenborough said: > > Leadsom has only 3 backers so far. > > > > > > Is the format definitely going to be just the lowest candidate drops out as previously or is that still tbc?
And have they decided on 2 or 4 going forward to the membership?
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > > @Cicero said: > > > > > Conservative MPs are not going to vote for the death of Conservative party. > > Which ones? The Conservative MPs who first elected Theresa May, or the ones who banged their desks in applause after GE2017, or the ones who supported May in the confidence vote?
Don't forget the ones who voted down the WDA. They also pushed the Tory Party closer to oblivion.
> @SouthamObserver said: > Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party. > > This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course.
Of course it would, the SNP won a comfortable majority still in 2017 on 38% and if the Tories and Labour fail to deliver Brexit by the next general election the Leave vote will be united behind the Brexit Party largely with the Remain vote split again as it was on Sunday which allowed the Brexit Party to comfortably win a majority of local authority areas
> @Sandpit said: > Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party. > > If we get a snap election, surely Farage will simply say that he has only one policy, which is to leave the EU as quickly as possible - and that he'll resign and call another election shortly after we've left? > > That approach sure beats needing a fully-developed and costed manifesto on a range of other policy areas, each of which could upset many potential pro-Brexit supporters?
That might work for the 35% of the 38%, but it is not going to get much traction beyond that.
> @Mysticrose said: > Betting Post > > Ladbrokes have 10-1 on the Conservatives polling under 10% tomorrow. In the European election they polled 10.9%. >
> @williamglenn said: > > @Mysticrose said: > > Betting Post > > > > Ladbrokes have 10-1 on the Conservatives polling under 10% tomorrow. In the European election they polled 10.9%. > > > > Tomorrow? It's next week. >
Sorry thanks for the correction. My weeks are in a muddle
> @kle4 said: > Somebody asked downthread if you can still join the Labour Party for just £3 per year. > > > > The answer is yes, for three groups: > > - aged 14-19 > > - students > > - current or former members of the armed forces (no, not the Soviet ones) > > > > https://secure.scottishlabour.org.uk/page/content/membership/ > > > > (Incidentally, why does PB now use this dreadful commenting system. It is nigh on unusable.) > > Like many things it used to be a good system but has devolved in recent times.
> @isam said: > Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party. > > > > This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course. > > It still leaves it with about 20% in a GE which, given the likely %s of the other 3 contenders, gives it a fair chance of being in govt
That depends on the platforms. A pro-referendum or Remain Labour might be able to get around 40% of the 38%. The rest would be down to what its manifesto said on other issues. If the Brexit party is getting 20% of the GE vote, then anything over 30% might well lead to power. And the Tories are definitely not going to get over 30% if the Brexit party is getting 20%.
> @Sandpit said: > Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party. > > If we get a snap election, surely Farage will simply say that he has only one policy, which is to leave the EU as quickly as possible - and that he'll resign and call another election shortly after we've left? > > That approach sure beats needing a fully-developed and costed manifesto on a range of other policy areas, each of which could upset many potential pro-Brexit supporters?
I know details are not leavers strong points, so he may well try that, but it is clearly not in his gift to call another election shortly after we have left unless he has two thirds of the seats in parliament, in which case no-one would trust him to do so.
It will be the job of other parties and the media to expose their policies on the NHS in particular.
As a die-hard Lib Dem supporting remainer (snowflake, libtard, whatever), I've come to the conclusion that another referendum would be an utter disaster. The country is still split, we don't need another referendum to tell us that.
The best way forward would be a General Election (a de facto Referendum you might argue, because the risk will be a single-issue election, but at least one mapped onto our representative democratic institutions and not a plebiscite). Then we could have a newly constituted HoC decide on WA and start negotiating our long-term relationship with the EU. We'll have to do that whether it's No Deal, Deal Revoke tbh.
There is a real opportunity to have HoC thrash out Brexit for the long-term. And it'll get rid of the 'angry mob' (on both sides) by placing the extremists back into our parliamentary system. The only risk is that we'll be dealing with Brexit for years to come, but let's face it - we're already there.
I like Rory Stewart. He did a good documentary on Afghanistan. I don't think he'll become leader, though.
My only issue with Stewart is how THIN he is. What is it with these wealthy, London-based celebs and powerful figures, how do they get themselves so thin?!?
> Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
>
>
>
> This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course.
>
> It still leaves it with about 20% in a GE which, given the likely %s of the other 3 contenders, gives it a fair chance of being in govt
That depends on the platforms. A pro-referendum or Remain Labour might be able to get around 40% of the 38%. The rest would be down to what its manifesto said on other issues. If the Brexit party is getting 20% of the GE vote, then anything over 30% might well lead to power. And the Tories are definitely not going to get over 30% if the Brexit party is getting 20%.
All dependent on Labour getting rid of Corbyn and winning back all the votes they lost last week.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @isam said: > > Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party. > > > > > > > > This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course. > > > > It still leaves it with about 20% in a GE which, given the likely %s of the other 3 contenders, gives it a fair chance of being in govt > > That depends on the platforms. A pro-referendum or Remain Labour might be able to get around 40% of the 38%. The rest would be down to what its manifesto said on other issues. If the Brexit party is getting 20% of the GE vote, then anything over 30% might well lead to power. And the Tories are definitely not going to get over 30% if the Brexit party is getting 20%.
If we have not left the EU by the next general election the Brexit Party will be getting over 30% as it did on Sunday and the Tories could well again be under 10%.
> @SouthamObserver said: > Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party. >
I wouldn't necessarily say all those 30% that didn't turn out in the EU elections didn't care enough about Brexit to turn out.
A portion of those that didn't turn out would be Leave voters that didn't want endorse these elections in any way (as we were supposed to be out on 29th March)
And they'd also be some who have never voted in the EU elections and who weren't about to start now we should have left the EU... But would nevertheless have voted to Leave in the referendum and could potentially be persuaded to vote for a party committed to Brexit in a general election.
Also don't forget those in Labours "northern heartlands" who generally don't vote in any election and probably hadn't voted since the 1980s until 2016 when they voted to Leave.
These EU elections were the absolute optimal conditions for Remainers. Another referendum and the next general election will be no where near as optimal for Remain IMO. The EU elections are as good as it gets for Remain unless there's some sort of coupon election uniting remain parties at the election.
Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
If we get a snap election, surely Farage will simply say that he has only one policy, which is to leave the EU as quickly as possible - and that he'll resign and call another election shortly after we've left?
That approach sure beats needing a fully-developed and costed manifesto on a range of other policy areas, each of which could upset many potential pro-Brexit supporters?
So he gets elected goes to Brussels and says as of 31 October we have left. Then does what most involved in the leave campaign (and Cameron) did after the referendum and piss off, leaving someone else to clear up the mess?
> @ah009 said: > > @Roger said: > > I heard an interesting quote from a Tory this morning with reference to keeping 'no deal' on the table. They said "What sort of a bargaining chip is it to point a gun at your head and say if you don't agree to our deal I'm going to blow my brains out" > > > > Brains?
That is very similar to a scene from the movie "blazing saddles", when the black sheriff is sent into a lawless cowboy town to maintain order!
It will be the job of other parties and the media to expose their policies on the NHS in particular.
The Brexit Party's manifesto won't be particularly right wing. Farage knows that isn't the route to power through his time with UKIP. I'd even hazard a guess nationalisation of the railways might be in there.
It is more Hunt's flip flopping from No Deal is better than No Brexit to now ruling out No Deal.
Gove has cleverly kept his cards closer to his chest and it now looks likely to be Gove v Boris or Raab as the final 2 sent to Tory members rather than Hunt v Boris or Raab
> @HYUFD said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > @isam said: > > > Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party. > > > > > > > > > > > > This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course. > > > > > > It still leaves it with about 20% in a GE which, given the likely %s of the other 3 contenders, gives it a fair chance of being in govt > > > > That depends on the platforms. A pro-referendum or Remain Labour might be able to get around 40% of the 38%. The rest would be down to what its manifesto said on other issues. If the Brexit party is getting 20% of the GE vote, then anything over 30% might well lead to power. And the Tories are definitely not going to get over 30% if the Brexit party is getting 20%. > > If we have not left the EU by the next general election the Brexit Party will be getting over 30% as it did on Sunday and the Tories could well again be under 10%. > >
30% in a 38% turnout election is one thing; 30% in a 65% to 70% one is something very different. That will require a whole set of policies that the BXP has not yet begun to develop.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party. > > > > I wouldn't necessarily say all those 30% that didn't turn out in the EU elections didn't care enough about Brexit to turn out. > > A portion of those that didn't turn out would be Leave voters that didn't want endorse these elections in any way (as we were supposed to be out on 29th March) > > And they'd also be some who have never voted in the EU election and who weren't about to start now we should have left the EU... But would nevertheless have voted to Leave in the referendum and could potentially be persuaded to vote for a party committed to Brexit in a general election. > > These EU elections were the absolute optimal conditions for Remainers. Another referendum and the next general election will be no where near as optimal for Remain IMO. The EU elections are as good as it gets for Remain unless there's some sort of coupon election uniting remain parties at the election.
On the other side of the coin, a lot of Labour voters would not have voted last Thursday because they did not want to go the full Campbell and vote against the party. If we are being honest, we'd say that the Euros were the optimal conditions for Leavers and Remainers. The next GE will also include the votes of millions of people whose views are not led by Brexit. That's where other policies come in.
Re the 10-1 on the Tories polling under 10%, in case you think I'm a betting loon I'm on Spurs at 25-1 for Saturday paced before the quarter finals. I have a hunch they're going to win it. Write them off at your peril.
> @HYUFD said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > @isam said: > > > Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party. > > > > > > > > > > > > This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course. > > > > > > It still leaves it with about 20% in a GE which, given the likely %s of the other 3 contenders, gives it a fair chance of being in govt > > > > That depends on the platforms. A pro-referendum or Remain Labour might be able to get around 40% of the 38%. The rest would be down to what its manifesto said on other issues. If the Brexit party is getting 20% of the GE vote, then anything over 30% might well lead to power. And the Tories are definitely not going to get over 30% if the Brexit party is getting 20%. > > If we have not left the EU by the next general election the Brexit Party will be getting over 30% as it did on Sunday and the Tories could well again be under 10%. > >
Yes all this is written in stone from the laws of polling and HYUFD magic analysis.
Very strange that in liquid markets it is 50/50 for a GE without having Brexited first but you can back Brexit at 16 for an overall majority, or 11 for most seats given the above.
More realistically Brexit will poll 12-26% and there is very likely to be a hung parliament both on party terms and Brexit resolution terms, to quote a famous prime minister, nothing has changed.
> Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
>
>
>
> This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course.
>
> It still leaves it with about 20% in a GE which, given the likely %s of the other 3 contenders, gives it a fair chance of being in govt
That depends on the platforms. A pro-referendum or Remain Labour might be able to get around 40% of the 38%. The rest would be down to what its manifesto said on other issues. If the Brexit party is getting 20% of the GE vote, then anything over 30% might well lead to power. And the Tories are definitely not going to get over 30% if the Brexit party is getting 20%.
All dependent on Labour getting rid of Corbyn and winning back all the votes they lost last week.
Isn't there much more of a case to be made regarding Farage being a vote loser at General Elections than Corbyn. Fair play if you think Corbyn should go for Labour to be more electable (what's 40% really?!) but as a Brexit party supporter surely you would be far more concerned with Brexit parties electability?
> @bookseller said: > As a die-hard Lib Dem supporting remainer (snowflake, libtard, whatever), I've come to the conclusion that another referendum would be an utter disaster. The country is still split, we don't need another referendum to tell us that. > > The best way forward would be a General Election (a de facto Referendum you might argue, because the risk will be a single-issue election, but at least one mapped onto our representative democratic institutions and not a plebiscite). Then we could have a newly constituted HoC decide on WA and start negotiating our long-term relationship with the EU. We'll have to do that whether it's No Deal, Deal Revoke tbh. > > There is a real opportunity to have HoC thrash out Brexit for the long-term. And it'll get rid of the 'angry mob' (on both sides) by placing the extremists back into our parliamentary system. The only risk is that we'll be dealing with Brexit for years to come, but let's face it - we're already there.
Agreed, this is what should happen. Not sure it will though.
> @isam said: > .> @isam said: > > > Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party. > > > > > > > > > > > > This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course. > > > > > > It still leaves it with about 20% in a GE which, given the likely %s of the other 3 contenders, gives it a fair chance of being in govt > > > > That depends on the platforms. A pro-referendum or Remain Labour might be able to get around 40% of the 38%. The rest would be down to what its manifesto said on other issues. If the Brexit party is getting 20% of the GE vote, then anything over 30% might well lead to power. And the Tories are definitely not going to get over 30% if the Brexit party is getting 20%. > > All dependent on Labour getting rid of Corbyn and winning back all the votes they lost last week.
Getting rid of Corbyn is the slam dunk that probably guarantees victory. A platform which includes a referendum is probably going to get 30%+ of the vote in England. The SNP has Scotland totally sewn up.
> @Pulpstar said: > It will be the job of other parties and the media to expose their policies on the NHS in particular. > > The Brexit Party's manifesto won't be particularly right wing. Farage knows that isn't the route to power through his time with UKIP. I'd even hazard a guess nationalisation of the railways might be in there.
Like Trump Farage hates saying he was wrong. Press him hard enough on his past NHS quotes and it will be clear he is no friend of the NHS.
It’s possible she has some big Brexit backers (who might otherwise run for leader) who are poised to declare for her imminently, with one or two others from the other wing of the party.
> @Streeter said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > > > The reality is that in this parliament there isn’t a majority for any solution to Brexit. Yes, you can argue that somehow there might be, and maybe that will turn out to be the case, but we all really know that is pretty unlikely. So you either change the parliament or you seek to make the decision outside parliament. That’s the choice. An election or a referendum. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/there-s-no-avoiding-election-or-a-second-vote-8rqn087zt > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It will be a second referendum. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Things have changed and a General Election, now, threatens survival of the Conservative Party, and decimation of a variety of Labour constituencies. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It’s likely the new Parliament would be even more divided and factional than this one, totally hung, if such a thing is imaginable. > > > > > > > > > > > > I increasingly think a second referendum, narrow vote to remain, followed a couple of years later by a Brexit party majority and a disorderly no deal Brexit, quite possibly rejoining five years later is the most likely outcome now. A dialectic process. Testing both polar extremes to destruction before returning to some kind of consensus. > > > > > > I think Leave will win again > > > > Possible, but I don't think that solves anything without another general election. > > > > This Parliament simply will not allow Brexit to happen. That has been made eminently clear over the last three years... > > > > Which is why I think a GE with a Brexit Party win that sweeps away all before it, SNP style, is inevitable, sooner or later. I also expect a Brexit party government to be a chaotic failure that results in rejoin (though that's a bit of crystal ball gazing at this point). > > Once the Brexit Party reveals its GE manifesto, starting with Trumpian health policies, their pretensions to govern will fall as quickly as Farage's jowls after the fourth pint. > > Brexit just isn't a high priority for most voters compared to traditional wedge issues, as we saw at GE2017.
We were told for years euroscepticism was a minority opinion. Of no interest to the wider electorate. Wrong.
We were told repeatedly that Trump could never win an election. Again, proven wrong.
Now we are told that Farage could never win a GE. But I think intentions matter more than policy. And if the next GE is framed as a chance to give the political class a kicking - a "drain the swamp" platform it could easily deliver Farage a victory.
> Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
>
>
>
> This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course.
>
> It still leaves it with about 20% in a GE which, given the likely %s of the other 3 contenders, gives it a fair chance of being in govt
That depends on the platforms. A pro-referendum or Remain Labour might be able to get around 40% of the 38%. The rest would be down to what its manifesto said on other issues. If the Brexit party is getting 20% of the GE vote, then anything over 30% might well lead to power. And the Tories are definitely not going to get over 30% if the Brexit party is getting 20%.
All dependent on Labour getting rid of Corbyn and winning back all the votes they lost last week.
Isn't there much more of a case to be made regarding Farage being a vote loser at General Elections than Corbyn. Fair play if you think Corbyn should go for Labour to be more electable (what's 40% really?!) but as a Brexit party supporter surely you would be far more concerned with Brexit parties electability?
Almost 20% of a GE electorate voted for him last week, so I don’t think so, no.
In other news, President Trump wants to convert the new aircraft carriers from the new electric EMALS catapult / arrester system to steam.
Except the first ship, USS Gerald Ford, is basically complete and it would be incredibly problematic to convert the design to steam.
The guy is clueless. EMALS is problematic, but so are many new technologies, and it is the future.
(On the other hand, it indicates we might have dodged significant problems with our new carriers, given that any catapult system was going to be based on EMALS, given our hiomegrown system was abandoned.)
CATOBAR was never a viable option for the QE class as a) the ship isn't really fast enough which would lead to payload constrained launches and b) it triples the manning requirement of the air wing compared to STOVL.
The space where the EMCATS hardware would have been is now occupied by the ops centre so QE class will never be going CATOBAR now.
Trump actually said future carrier orders would revert to steam so Ford, JFK and probably Enterprise will use EMALS. It would be theoretically possible to revert CVN-81 which gets laid down in 2023 to steam but it almost certainly won't.
If the US want a new carrier in service every three or four years (in order to maintain ten or so operational carriers), then they need to get redesigning CVN-81 damned quickly. Although as you say, they probably won't.
Any problems with EMALS will be sorted out or worked around by midway through the next decade. It's a problematic technology, but then AIUI so are the old steam catapults - it's just that they've had six decades of experience with it.
I've just been trying to imagine which system - steam or electric - is more robust after an attack. Electric depends on getting the power to the catapults, but steam relies on pressurised pipework and the steam storage vessels, all of which are very vulnerable. I'd guess electric is much more robust.
EMALS has less moving parts and its easier to fix cables than pipes.
EMALS also has a more progressive stroke which reduces airframe fatigue and both higher and lower weight limits. There is also less chance of the much dreaded "cold cat" where speed at the end of the stroke is less than anticipated. It's just a far superior system and Trump is an ignorant cock.
> > Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course.
>
> >
>
> > It still leaves it with about 20% in a GE which, given the likely %s of the other 3 contenders, gives it a fair chance of being in govt
>
>
>
> That depends on the platforms. A pro-referendum or Remain Labour might be able to get around 40% of the 38%. The rest would be down to what its manifesto said on other issues. If the Brexit party is getting 20% of the GE vote, then anything over 30% might well lead to power. And the Tories are definitely not going to get over 30% if the Brexit party is getting 20%.
>
> All dependent on Labour getting rid of Corbyn and winning back all the votes they lost last week.
Getting rid of Corbyn is the slam dunk that probably guarantees victory. A platform which includes a referendum is probably going to get 30%+ of the vote in England. The SNP has Scotland totally sewn up.
A Labour Party with the possibility of getting 40% on a revoke & reform platform relies on us not having left by the next GE, in which case it will be a single issue election all about Brexit. I think that suits Farage just fine.
> Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
>
>
>
> This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course.
>
> It still leaves it with about 20% in a GE which, given the likely %s of the other 3 contenders, gives it a fair chance of being in govt
That depends on the platforms. A pro-referendum or Remain Labour might be able to get around 40% of the 38%. The rest would be down to what its manifesto said on other issues. If the Brexit party is getting 20% of the GE vote, then anything over 30% might well lead to power. And the Tories are definitely not going to get over 30% if the Brexit party is getting 20%.
All dependent on Labour getting rid of Corbyn and winning back all the votes they lost last week.
Isn't there much more of a case to be made regarding Farage being a vote loser at General Elections than Corbyn. Fair play if you think Corbyn should go for Labour to be more electable (what's 40% really?!) but as a Brexit party supporter surely you would be far more concerned with Brexit parties electability?
20% of a GE electorate voted for him last week, so I don’t think so, no.
only 20%, the serial failure to get elected to parliament...
I mean if you worried about Corbyn being an electoral drag with his much better record you must be really worried about Farage as an actual supporter of his party?
Why has Leadsom come in so much ? I know she was tipped but...
I wonder if Boris is going to pull out again.
It isn’t hard to see the following happening
Steve Baker, Dominic Raab, and Mother Leadsom hoovering up the ERG support, leaving not much for Boris.
Gove winning the Anti No Deal Brexiteer vote, so Boris is reliant on winning the support of the one nation wing, who really don't trust him despite what Amber Rudd and Jo Johnson telling them really won’t go for No Deal.
Labour and the Tories have millions (Well normally) that turn out for them every election come rain or shine. The Brexit party was created a couple of months ago !
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > .> @isam said: > > > > > > > Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It still leaves it with about 20% in a GE which, given the likely %s of the other 3 contenders, gives it a fair chance of being in govt > > > > > > > > > > > > That depends on the platforms. A pro-referendum or Remain Labour might be able to get around 40% of the 38%. The rest would be down to what its manifesto said on other issues. If the Brexit party is getting 20% of the GE vote, then anything over 30% might well lead to power. And the Tories are definitely not going to get over 30% if the Brexit party is getting 20%. > > > > > > All dependent on Labour getting rid of Corbyn and winning back all the votes they lost last week. > > > > Getting rid of Corbyn is the slam dunk that probably guarantees victory. A platform which includes a referendum is probably going to get 30%+ of the vote in England. The SNP has Scotland totally sewn up. > > A Labour Party with the possibility of getting 40% on a revoke & reform platform relies on us not having left by the next GE, in which case it will be a single issue election all about Brexit. I think that suits Farage just fine.
Yep, I think it absolutely suits Farage. Revoke and remain (more likely referendum) gets Labour an uptick in support among people whose major priority is avoiding Brexit - basically most of those who voted for Remain parties last Thursday. The other policies come into play for the millions whose priority is not that and who did not vote last Thursday.
Why has Leadsom come in so much ? I know she was tipped but...
I wonder if Boris is going to pull out again.
It isn’t hard to see the following happening
Steve Baker, Dominic Raab, and Mother Leadsom hoovering up the ERG support, leaving not much for Boris.
Gove winning the Anti No Deal Brexiteer vote, so Boris is reliant on winning the support of the one nation wing, who really don't trust him despite what Amber Rudd and Jo Johnson telling them really won’t go for No Deal.
I was surprised at Jo Johnson's support. Surely as a die hard remainer he'd realise that'd cost brother Boris amongst the ERG ?
> > Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course.
>
> >
>
> > It still leaves it with about 20% in a GE which, given the likely %s of the other 3 contenders, gives it a fair chance of being in govt
>
>
>
> That depends on the platforms. A pro-referendum or Remain Labour might be able to get around 40% of the 38%. The rest would be down to what its manifesto said on other issues. If the Brexit party is getting 20% of the GE vote, then anything over 30% might well lead to power. And the Tories are definitely not going to get over 30% if the Brexit party is getting 20%.
>
> All dependent on Labour getting rid of Corbyn and winning back all the votes they lost last week.
Getting rid of Corbyn is the slam dunk that probably guarantees victory. A platform which includes a referendum is probably going to get 30%+ of the vote in England. The SNP has Scotland totally sewn up.
A Labour Party with the possibility of getting 40% on a revoke & reform platform relies on us not having left by the next GE, in which case it will be a single issue election all about Brexit. I think that suits Farage just fine.
TBH a centrist Labour party isn't touching 40% these days...
More realistically, not getting rid of Corbyn will see the election campaign on many different issues. The Tories and Brexit Party can get into discussions between themselves about who hates the Europeans more but don't be amazed if a large portion of the electorate pays some attention to everything/anything else.
> @Casino_Royale said: > Somebody clearly knows something about Leadsom. > > It’s possible she has some big Brexit backers (who might otherwise run for leader) who are poised to declare for her imminently, with one or two others from the other wing of the party.
Word has got out that another march on Westminster is planned.
Labour and the Tories have millions (Well normally) that turn out for them every election come rain or shine.
The Brexit party was created a couple of months ago !
Was it though? It is the political equivalent of a pre pack administration.
UKIP would have got around 2.5 million votes that could safely be ignored without winning any northern Labour council areas. That was par for the 'hard leave' before Farage got involved in the Euros.
Why has Leadsom come in so much ? I know she was tipped but...
I wonder if Boris is going to pull out again.
It isn’t hard to see the following happening
Steve Baker, Dominic Raab, and Mother Leadsom hoovering up the ERG support, leaving not much for Boris.
Gove winning the Anti No Deal Brexiteer vote, so Boris is reliant on winning the support of the one nation wing, who really don't trust him despite what Amber Rudd and Jo Johnson telling them really won’t go for No Deal.
This could play out pretty much as it did last time for Boris, realising late on that he just doesn't have sufficient support.
He'd rather pull out than get beaten. (An apt metaphor he should have applied earlier in life)
> Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
>
>
>
> This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course.
>
> It still leaves it with about 20% in a GE which, given the likely %s of the other 3 contenders, gives it a fair chance of being in govt
That depends on the platforms. A pro-referendum or Remain Labour might be able to get around 40% of the 38%. The rest would be down to what its manifesto said on other issues. If the Brexit party is getting 20% of the GE vote, then anything over 30% might well lead to power. And the Tories are definitely not going to get over 30% if the Brexit party is getting 20%.
All dependent on Labour getting rid of Corbyn and winning back all the votes they lost last week.
Isn't there much more of a case to be made regarding Farage being a vote loser at General Elections than Corbyn. Fair play if you think Corbyn should go for Labour to be more electable (what's 40% really?!) but as a Brexit party supporter surely you would be far more concerned with Brexit parties electability?
Almost 20% of a GE electorate voted for him last week, so I don’t think so, no.
Less than one-third of 38% is not 'almost 20%.' Not even if Diane Abbott is doing the maths.
Even if we assume that GE turnout is around 70% that would still leave a figure of around 14%.
> @anothernick said: > > @bookseller said: > > As a die-hard Lib Dem supporting remainer (snowflake, libtard, whatever), I've come to the conclusion that another referendum would be an utter disaster. The country is still split, we don't need another referendum to tell us that. > > > > The best way forward would be a General Election (a de facto Referendum you might argue, because the risk will be a single-issue election, but at least one mapped onto our representative democratic institutions and not a plebiscite). Then we could have a newly constituted HoC decide on WA and start negotiating our long-term relationship with the EU. We'll have to do that whether it's No Deal, Deal Revoke tbh. > > > > There is a real opportunity to have HoC thrash out Brexit for the long-term. And it'll get rid of the 'angry mob' (on both sides) by placing the extremists back into our parliamentary system. The only risk is that we'll be dealing with Brexit for years to come, but let's face it - we're already there. > > Agreed, this is what should happen. Not sure it will though.
I think this comment from kyf_100 earlier in the thread nails it:
>I increasingly think a second referendum, narrow vote to remain, followed a couple of years later by a Brexit party majority and a disorderly no deal Brexit, quite possibly rejoining five years later is the most likely outcome now. A dialectic process. Testing both polar extremes to destruction before returning to some kind of consensus.
I know Schrödinger's Brexit has been a term of abuse, but actually it's a useful way of looking at the problem. Setting up another experiment doesn't make sense until we 'open the box'. We have to apply a bit of Hegel and 'aufheben'...
> Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
>
>
>
> This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course.
>
> It still leaves it with about 20% in a GE which, given the likely %s of the other 3 contenders, gives it a fair chance of being in govt
That depends on the platforms. A pro-referendum or Remain Labour might be able to get around 40% of the 38%. The rest would be down to what its manifesto said on other issues. If the Brexit party is getting 20% of the GE vote, then anything over 30% might well lead to power. And the Tories are definitely not going to get over 30% if the Brexit party is getting 20%.
All dependent on Labour getting rid of Corbyn and winning back all the votes they lost last week.
Isn't there much more of a case to be made regarding Farage being a vote loser at General Elections than Corbyn. Fair play if you think Corbyn should go for Labour to be more electable (what's 40% really?!) but as a Brexit party supporter surely you would be far more concerned with Brexit parties electability?
Almost 20% of a GE electorate voted for him last week, so I don’t think so, no.
Less than one-third of 38% is not 'almost 20%.' Not even if Diane Abbott is doing the maths.
Even if we assume that GE turnout is around 70% that would still leave a figure of around 14%.
I was using @SouthamObserver’s 35%, but even using 31% it’s about 17.5% on a 67% turnout
It’s possible she has some big Brexit backers (who might otherwise run for leader) who are poised to declare for her imminently, with one or two others from the other wing of the party.
Well we know (I don't know, but it's on public record) which MP's backed her last time don't we? If they haven't backed anyone else, they are likely to back her at again.
Comments
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> > > There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters.
> > >
> > > Interesting.
> >
> > In which case Labour better prepare for annihilation by the Brexit Party in its Leave seats in the North and Midlands and Wales even if they hold onto London and other big cities and university towns
>
> You are Theresa May AICMFP. The 2017 general election shows that not everything is about Brexit. The European elections were, of course, which damaged both the major parties whose Brexit positions were nuanced, to put it politely. But in a general election, Crush the Saboteurs might work for Nigel Farage no better than it did for Theresa May.
In FPTP the impact will depend on how the other parties handle things. A grand coalition of remain parties is likely to do rather better than those parties individually.
What I'm still trying to work out is where does Labour stand if the tories and Nigel run a jointish slate...
> FPT:
> Good morning, everyone.
>
> As predicted by me just yesterday, Gollum won't relinquish the Precious:
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48441344
>
> Bercow saying he'll stay on after all is about as surprising as Boris announcing he wants to be leader.
>
> Sadly there’s no way of getting rid of a Speaker who doesn’t want to leave, even if large numbers of MPs no longer have confidence in his impartiality.
>
> Except in a new parliament. That is at least one reason to have a GE.
>
>
> Possibly yes. I now think an autumn election is looking more likely than not, for the reason that there simply isn’t a majority for anything Brexit-related in the current Parliament.
>
> The only way I can see a breakthrough in this Parliament is if somehow the EU will move on the backstop, and the only chance that happens is if they genuinely think we’ll leave with no deal if they don’t.
Conservative MPs are not going to vote for the death of Conservative party.
> > @isam said:
>
> > > @isam said:
>
> >
>
> > > > @Morris_Dancer said:
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > > Mr. Meeks, hmm.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > > Is that because of subtle things, or because others have been cocking up?
> > > > How're Boris' odds?
>
> > > Boris has held stable at just shy of 2/1. Personally I think he’s ridiculously short priced but obviously others know better.
>
> > > What range of price would he be if he made the last 2?
>
> > Something like 1/3. His problem is before then in my view.
>
> >
>
> > That would make him roughly 5/4 to qualify if 2/1 is fair value to win. What do you think he is TQ?
>
>
>
> Something like 8/1.
>
> Shouldn’t you be hoovering up the money wanting to back him at 13/8-2/1???
I’d not seen that market - thanks.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
>
> > She was my tip in my round up a couple of weeks back.
>
>
>
> I didn't believe you back then, but I've been hearing warm words about her from non political friends, so I eventually followed you on. Smart tip.
>
> Thanks. But my track record is patchy. Don't mention Clinton to me.
I won huge on Brexit and Trump. Getting the same feeling for Remain if a referendum can be extracted from these ne'erdowells.
> > @Sandpit said:
> > FPT:
> > Good morning, everyone.
> >
> > As predicted by me just yesterday, Gollum won't relinquish the Precious:
> > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48441344
> >
> > Bercow saying he'll stay on after all is about as surprising as Boris announcing he wants to be leader.
> >
> > Sadly there’s no way of getting rid of a Speaker who doesn’t want to leave, even if large numbers of MPs no longer have confidence in his impartiality.
> >
> > Except in a new parliament. That is at least one reason to have a GE.
> >
> >
> > Possibly yes. I now think an autumn election is looking more likely than not, for the reason that there simply isn’t a majority for anything Brexit-related in the current Parliament.
> >
> > The only way I can see a breakthrough in this Parliament is if somehow the EU will move on the backstop, and the only chance that happens is if they genuinely think we’ll leave with no deal if they don’t.
>
> Conservative MPs are not going to vote for the death of Conservative party.
They may well have already done so.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/05/daniel-hannan-the-tory-catch-22-we-cant-face-an-election-before-brexit-but-we-may-not-get-brexit-without-an-election.html
It's like they all know they're going to need a referendum, but nobody wants to be the one to tell the members.
> Is BoZo's cunning campaign stunt this time to not make any appearances or do any interviews in case people remember how useless he really is?
It may have something to do with the period leading upto the 10th June when nominations close and Boris does not want to show his hand until he knows who is standing and he can tailor his unicorns (sorry programme) to maximise his chances
This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course.
> Funny piece by Dan Hannan where he correctly describes how none of the options all the current leadership contenders are affecting to support will work, then affects not to be able to think of a solution.
>
> https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/05/daniel-hannan-the-tory-catch-22-we-cant-face-an-election-before-brexit-but-we-may-not-get-brexit-without-an-election.html
>
> It's like they all know they're going to need a referendum, but nobody wants to be the one to tell the members.
A particular peach is when he pretends the referendum campaign wasn’t about immigration.
Brexit just isn't a high priority for most voters compared to traditional wedge issues, as we saw at GE2017.
>
> Conservative MPs are not going to vote for the death of Conservative party.
Which ones? The Conservative MPs who first elected Theresa May, or the ones who banged their desks in applause after GE2017, or the ones who supported May in the confidence vote?
> I heard an interesting quote from a Tory this morning with reference to keeping 'no deal' on the table. They said "What sort of a bargaining chip is it to point a gun at your head and say if you don't agree to our deal I'm going to blow my brains out"
>
Brains?
> Funny piece by Dan Hannan where he correctly describes how none of the options all the current leadership contenders are affecting to support will work, then affects not to be able to think of a solution.
>
> https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/05/daniel-hannan-the-tory-catch-22-we-cant-face-an-election-before-brexit-but-we-may-not-get-brexit-without-an-election.html
>
> It's like they all know they're going to need a referendum, but nobody wants to be the one to tell the members.
I suspect a referendum will be the end result of this impasse engineered throug h Bercow and a suitable extension agreed by the EU
> Funny piece by Dan Hannan where he correctly describes how none of the options all the current leadership contenders are affecting to support will work, then affects not to be able to think of a solution.
>
> https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/05/daniel-hannan-the-tory-catch-22-we-cant-face-an-election-before-brexit-but-we-may-not-get-brexit-without-an-election.html
>
> It's like they all know they're going to need a referendum, but nobody wants to be the one to tell the members.
It really isnt a bad position for a hardcore outsider leaver to take. They would have to be believed as a leaver for it not to be seen as a plot but someone like Baker could take the we have told them once and we will tell them again line, point out no-one else has a realistic approach to actually delivering Brexit.
He might end up attracting support from some remainers and pragmatists as well as the leavers who think they would win a 2nd ref. Somehow he will have to differentiate from the leading candidates and this seems as good a way as any.
> Funny piece by Dan Hannan where he correctly describes how none of the options all the current leadership contenders are affecting to support will work, then affects not to be able to think of a solution.
>
> https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/05/daniel-hannan-the-tory-catch-22-we-cant-face-an-election-before-brexit-but-we-may-not-get-brexit-without-an-election.html
>
> It's like they all know they're going to need a referendum, but nobody wants to be the one to tell the members.
There's a bit of a porky in there about the Backstop being forced on the UK, when it was the UK's idea. Apart from that he is pretty much spot on.
> https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1133643438799372288
Hasn’t the poor guy suffered enough?
> A particular peach is when he pretends the referendum campaign wasn’t about immigration.
I know, can you imagine if TMay had come back with a deal where people from the rest of the EU could still work in the UK without restriction? If she'd survived long enough to put it to a vote it would have got about 4 Tories.
That approach sure beats needing a fully-developed and costed manifesto on a range of other policy areas, each of which could upset many potential pro-Brexit supporters?
> > @Roger said:
> > I heard an interesting quote from a Tory this morning with reference to keeping 'no deal' on the table. They said "What sort of a bargaining chip is it to point a gun at your head and say if you don't agree to our deal I'm going to blow my brains out"
> >
>
> Brains?
Particularly when both sides negotiating know that parliament took the bullets out of the gun before you pointed it at your head.......
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @Roger said:
> > > I heard an interesting quote from a Tory this morning with reference to keeping 'no deal' on the table. They said "What sort of a bargaining chip is it to point a gun at your head and say if you don't agree to our deal I'm going to blow my brains out"
> > >
> >
> > Brains?
>
> Particularly when both sides negotiating know that parliament took the bullets out of the gun before you pointed it at your head.......
How could they have seen us? We were covering our eyes!
EMALS also has a more progressive stroke which reduces airframe fatigue and both higher and lower weight limits. There is also less chance of the much dreaded "cold cat" where speed at the end of the stroke is less than anticipated. It's just a far superior system and Trump is an ignorant cock.
> Leadsom has only 3 backers so far.
>
>
Is the format definitely going to be just the lowest candidate drops out as previously or is that still tbc?
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Leadsom has only 3 backers so far.
> >
> >
>
> Is the format definitely going to be just the lowest candidate drops out as previously or is that still tbc?
And have they decided on 2 or 4 going forward to the membership?
> > @Cicero said:
>
> >
> > Conservative MPs are not going to vote for the death of Conservative party.
>
> Which ones? The Conservative MPs who first elected Theresa May, or the ones who banged their desks in applause after GE2017, or the ones who supported May in the confidence vote?
Don't forget the ones who voted down the WDA. They also pushed the Tory Party closer to oblivion.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-s-gaffe-boosts-michael-gove-s-bid-for-tory-leadership-tr7nkwf9v?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1uHIM-Pe4eOTB3MwetSINZlhjjD2V_f-HvS37FUioL3r-keNc5v6Gi0u4#Echobox=1559086128
> Jeremy Hunt leaking support from Tory MPs to Michael Gove after No Deal gaffes
>
> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-s-gaffe-boosts-michael-gove-s-bid-for-tory-leadership-tr7nkwf9v?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1uHIM-Pe4eOTB3MwetSINZlhjjD2V_f-HvS37FUioL3r-keNc5v6Gi0u4#Echobox=1559086128
Seems odd that he would leak support to Gove given that Gove has ruled out No Deal too?
> Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
>
> This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course.
Of course it would, the SNP won a comfortable majority still in 2017 on 38% and if the Tories and Labour fail to deliver Brexit by the next general election the Leave vote will be united behind the Brexit Party largely with the Remain vote split again as it was on Sunday which allowed the Brexit Party to comfortably win a majority of local authority areas
> Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
>
> If we get a snap election, surely Farage will simply say that he has only one policy, which is to leave the EU as quickly as possible - and that he'll resign and call another election shortly after we've left?
>
> That approach sure beats needing a fully-developed and costed manifesto on a range of other policy areas, each of which could upset many potential pro-Brexit supporters?
That might work for the 35% of the 38%, but it is not going to get much traction beyond that.
> Leadsom has only 3 backers so far.
>
>
Surprised about this. She's one of the few members of Theresa Mays government that did quite well overall I thought...
Ladbrokes have 10-1 on the Conservatives polling under 10% at Peterborough next Thursday. In the European election they polled 10.9%.
So, notwithstanding previous constituency results, I'm in.
Value? Probably. Likely? Probably not.
> Betting Post
>
> Ladbrokes have 10-1 on the Conservatives polling under 10% tomorrow. In the European election they polled 10.9%.
>
Tomorrow? It's next week.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/29/matt-hancock-lays-into-boris-johnson-over-brexit-business-f-word-tirade
He's made a headline, so job done. But I'm already feeling like fuck fuck fuck this leadership contest.
> > @Mysticrose said:
> > Betting Post
> >
> > Ladbrokes have 10-1 on the Conservatives polling under 10% tomorrow. In the European election they polled 10.9%.
> >
>
> Tomorrow? It's next week.
>
Sorry thanks for the correction. My weeks are in a muddle
> Somebody asked downthread if you can still join the Labour Party for just £3 per year.
>
>
>
> The answer is yes, for three groups:
>
> - aged 14-19
>
> - students
>
> - current or former members of the armed forces (no, not the Soviet ones)
>
>
>
> https://secure.scottishlabour.org.uk/page/content/membership/
>
>
>
> (Incidentally, why does PB now use this dreadful commenting system. It is nigh on unusable.)
>
> Like many things it used to be a good system but has devolved in recent times.
As long as it doesn't kill PB stone dead.
> Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
>
>
>
> This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course.
>
> It still leaves it with about 20% in a GE which, given the likely %s of the other 3 contenders, gives it a fair chance of being in govt
That depends on the platforms. A pro-referendum or Remain Labour might be able to get around 40% of the 38%. The rest would be down to what its manifesto said on other issues. If the Brexit party is getting 20% of the GE vote, then anything over 30% might well lead to power. And the Tories are definitely not going to get over 30% if the Brexit party is getting 20%.
> Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
>
> If we get a snap election, surely Farage will simply say that he has only one policy, which is to leave the EU as quickly as possible - and that he'll resign and call another election shortly after we've left?
>
> That approach sure beats needing a fully-developed and costed manifesto on a range of other policy areas, each of which could upset many potential pro-Brexit supporters?
I know details are not leavers strong points, so he may well try that, but it is clearly not in his gift to call another election shortly after we have left unless he has two thirds of the seats in parliament, in which case no-one would trust him to do so.
It will be the job of other parties and the media to expose their policies on the NHS in particular.
The best way forward would be a General Election (a de facto Referendum you might argue, because the risk will be a single-issue election, but at least one mapped onto our representative democratic institutions and not a plebiscite). Then we could have a newly constituted HoC decide on WA and start negotiating our long-term relationship with the EU. We'll have to do that whether it's No Deal, Deal Revoke tbh.
There is a real opportunity to have HoC thrash out Brexit for the long-term. And it'll get rid of the 'angry mob' (on both sides) by placing the extremists back into our parliamentary system. The only risk is that we'll be dealing with Brexit for years to come, but let's face it - we're already there.
My only issue with Stewart is how THIN he is. What is it with these wealthy, London-based celebs and powerful figures, how do they get themselves so thin?!?
> > @isam said:
> > Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
> >
> >
> >
> > This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course.
> >
> > It still leaves it with about 20% in a GE which, given the likely %s of the other 3 contenders, gives it a fair chance of being in govt
>
> That depends on the platforms. A pro-referendum or Remain Labour might be able to get around 40% of the 38%. The rest would be down to what its manifesto said on other issues. If the Brexit party is getting 20% of the GE vote, then anything over 30% might well lead to power. And the Tories are definitely not going to get over 30% if the Brexit party is getting 20%.
If we have not left the EU by the next general election the Brexit Party will be getting over 30% as it did on Sunday and the Tories could well again be under 10%.
> Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
>
I wouldn't necessarily say all those 30% that didn't turn out in the EU elections didn't care enough about Brexit to turn out.
A portion of those that didn't turn out would be Leave voters that didn't want endorse these elections in any way (as we were supposed to be out on 29th March)
And they'd also be some who have never voted in the EU elections and who weren't about to start now we should have left the EU... But would nevertheless have voted to Leave in the referendum and could potentially be persuaded to vote for a party committed to Brexit in a general election.
Also don't forget those in Labours "northern heartlands" who generally don't vote in any election and probably hadn't voted since the 1980s until 2016 when they voted to Leave.
These EU elections were the absolute optimal conditions for Remainers. Another referendum and the next general election will be no where near as optimal for Remain IMO. The EU elections are as good as it gets for Remain unless there's some sort of coupon election uniting remain parties at the election.
> > @Roger said:
> > I heard an interesting quote from a Tory this morning with reference to keeping 'no deal' on the table. They said "What sort of a bargaining chip is it to point a gun at your head and say if you don't agree to our deal I'm going to blow my brains out"
> >
>
> Brains?
That is very similar to a scene from the movie "blazing saddles", when the black sheriff is sent into a lawless cowboy town to maintain order!
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Jeremy Hunt leaking support from Tory MPs to Michael Gove after No Deal gaffes
> >
> > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-s-gaffe-boosts-michael-gove-s-bid-for-tory-leadership-tr7nkwf9v?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1uHIM-Pe4eOTB3MwetSINZlhjjD2V_f-HvS37FUioL3r-keNc5v6Gi0u4#Echobox=1559086128
>
> Seems odd that he would leak support to Gove given that Gove has ruled out No Deal too?
It is more Hunt's flip flopping from No Deal is better than No Brexit to now ruling out No Deal.
Gove has cleverly kept his cards closer to his chest and it now looks likely to be Gove v Boris or Raab as the final 2 sent to Tory members rather than Hunt v Boris or Raab
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course.
> > >
> > > It still leaves it with about 20% in a GE which, given the likely %s of the other 3 contenders, gives it a fair chance of being in govt
> >
> > That depends on the platforms. A pro-referendum or Remain Labour might be able to get around 40% of the 38%. The rest would be down to what its manifesto said on other issues. If the Brexit party is getting 20% of the GE vote, then anything over 30% might well lead to power. And the Tories are definitely not going to get over 30% if the Brexit party is getting 20%.
>
> If we have not left the EU by the next general election the Brexit Party will be getting over 30% as it did on Sunday and the Tories could well again be under 10%.
>
>
30% in a 38% turnout election is one thing; 30% in a 65% to 70% one is something very different. That will require a whole set of policies that the BXP has not yet begun to develop.
> Mr. Fenster, nothing wrong with being thin.
No, agree... wish I was a bit thinner
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
> >
>
> I wouldn't necessarily say all those 30% that didn't turn out in the EU elections didn't care enough about Brexit to turn out.
>
> A portion of those that didn't turn out would be Leave voters that didn't want endorse these elections in any way (as we were supposed to be out on 29th March)
>
> And they'd also be some who have never voted in the EU election and who weren't about to start now we should have left the EU... But would nevertheless have voted to Leave in the referendum and could potentially be persuaded to vote for a party committed to Brexit in a general election.
>
> These EU elections were the absolute optimal conditions for Remainers. Another referendum and the next general election will be no where near as optimal for Remain IMO. The EU elections are as good as it gets for Remain unless there's some sort of coupon election uniting remain parties at the election.
On the other side of the coin, a lot of Labour voters would not have voted last Thursday because they did not want to go the full Campbell and vote against the party. If we are being honest, we'd say that the Euros were the optimal conditions for Leavers and Remainers. The next GE will also include the votes of millions of people whose views are not led by Brexit. That's where other policies come in.
Might end up with a big fat 0 but it's still fun.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course.
> > >
> > > It still leaves it with about 20% in a GE which, given the likely %s of the other 3 contenders, gives it a fair chance of being in govt
> >
> > That depends on the platforms. A pro-referendum or Remain Labour might be able to get around 40% of the 38%. The rest would be down to what its manifesto said on other issues. If the Brexit party is getting 20% of the GE vote, then anything over 30% might well lead to power. And the Tories are definitely not going to get over 30% if the Brexit party is getting 20%.
>
> If we have not left the EU by the next general election the Brexit Party will be getting over 30% as it did on Sunday and the Tories could well again be under 10%.
>
>
Yes all this is written in stone from the laws of polling and HYUFD magic analysis.
Very strange that in liquid markets it is 50/50 for a GE without having Brexited first but you can back Brexit at 16 for an overall majority, or 11 for most seats given the above.
More realistically Brexit will poll 12-26% and there is very likely to be a hung parliament both on party terms and Brexit resolution terms, to quote a famous prime minister, nothing has changed.
> As a die-hard Lib Dem supporting remainer (snowflake, libtard, whatever), I've come to the conclusion that another referendum would be an utter disaster. The country is still split, we don't need another referendum to tell us that.
>
> The best way forward would be a General Election (a de facto Referendum you might argue, because the risk will be a single-issue election, but at least one mapped onto our representative democratic institutions and not a plebiscite). Then we could have a newly constituted HoC decide on WA and start negotiating our long-term relationship with the EU. We'll have to do that whether it's No Deal, Deal Revoke tbh.
>
> There is a real opportunity to have HoC thrash out Brexit for the long-term. And it'll get rid of the 'angry mob' (on both sides) by placing the extremists back into our parliamentary system. The only risk is that we'll be dealing with Brexit for years to come, but let's face it - we're already there.
Agreed, this is what should happen. Not sure it will though.
> .> @isam said:
>
> > Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course.
>
> >
>
> > It still leaves it with about 20% in a GE which, given the likely %s of the other 3 contenders, gives it a fair chance of being in govt
>
>
>
> That depends on the platforms. A pro-referendum or Remain Labour might be able to get around 40% of the 38%. The rest would be down to what its manifesto said on other issues. If the Brexit party is getting 20% of the GE vote, then anything over 30% might well lead to power. And the Tories are definitely not going to get over 30% if the Brexit party is getting 20%.
>
> All dependent on Labour getting rid of Corbyn and winning back all the votes they lost last week.
Getting rid of Corbyn is the slam dunk that probably guarantees victory. A platform which includes a referendum is probably going to get 30%+ of the vote in England. The SNP has Scotland totally sewn up.
> It will be the job of other parties and the media to expose their policies on the NHS in particular.
>
> The Brexit Party's manifesto won't be particularly right wing. Farage knows that isn't the route to power through his time with UKIP. I'd even hazard a guess nationalisation of the railways might be in there.
Like Trump Farage hates saying he was wrong. Press him hard enough on his past NHS quotes and it will be clear he is no friend of the NHS.
It’s possible she has some big Brexit backers (who might otherwise run for leader) who are poised to declare for her imminently, with one or two others from the other wing of the party.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> >
>
> > > The reality is that in this parliament there isn’t a majority for any solution to Brexit. Yes, you can argue that somehow there might be, and maybe that will turn out to be the case, but we all really know that is pretty unlikely. So you either change the parliament or you seek to make the decision outside parliament. That’s the choice. An election or a referendum.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/there-s-no-avoiding-election-or-a-second-vote-8rqn087zt
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > It will be a second referendum.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Things have changed and a General Election, now, threatens survival of the Conservative Party, and decimation of a variety of Labour constituencies.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > It’s likely the new Parliament would be even more divided and factional than this one, totally hung, if such a thing is imaginable.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > I increasingly think a second referendum, narrow vote to remain, followed a couple of years later by a Brexit party majority and a disorderly no deal Brexit, quite possibly rejoining five years later is the most likely outcome now. A dialectic process. Testing both polar extremes to destruction before returning to some kind of consensus.
>
> >
>
> > I think Leave will win again
>
>
>
> Possible, but I don't think that solves anything without another general election.
>
>
>
> This Parliament simply will not allow Brexit to happen. That has been made eminently clear over the last three years...
>
>
>
> Which is why I think a GE with a Brexit Party win that sweeps away all before it, SNP style, is inevitable, sooner or later. I also expect a Brexit party government to be a chaotic failure that results in rejoin (though that's a bit of crystal ball gazing at this point).
>
> Once the Brexit Party reveals its GE manifesto, starting with Trumpian health policies, their pretensions to govern will fall as quickly as Farage's jowls after the fourth pint.
>
> Brexit just isn't a high priority for most voters compared to traditional wedge issues, as we saw at GE2017.
We were told for years euroscepticism was a minority opinion. Of no interest to the wider electorate. Wrong.
We were told repeatedly that Trump could never win an election. Again, proven wrong.
Now we are told that Farage could never win a GE. But I think intentions matter more than policy. And if the next GE is framed as a chance to give the political class a kicking - a "drain the swamp" platform it could easily deliver Farage a victory.
I've started deliberately eating more snacks to stop myself going under 8.5st
Edited for better grammar.
"FEWER" moving parts.
And I'm not even going there with the "its".
I mean if you worried about Corbyn being an electoral drag with his much better record you must be really worried about Farage as an actual supporter of his party?
It isn’t hard to see the following happening
Steve Baker, Dominic Raab, and Mother Leadsom hoovering up the ERG support, leaving not much for Boris.
Gove winning the Anti No Deal Brexiteer vote, so Boris is reliant on winning the support of the one nation wing, who really don't trust him despite what Amber Rudd and Jo Johnson telling them really won’t go for No Deal.
The Brexit party was created a couple of months ago !
> > @isam said:
>
> > .> @isam said:
>
> >
>
> > > Around 38% of the electorate cared enough to vote last Thursday. They are probably split around 50/50 between Leave and Remain, with a majority opposed to No Deal. In an election, another 30% or so of the electorate - which clearly does not care enough about Brexit to go out and make a point about it - is going to be involved. For that section of the electorate, there will need to be a wide range of policies on top of Brexit. This, it seems to me, is the Brexit party's GE problem - especially when you throw in the fact it advocates No Deal. Right now, it's top end is 35% of 38%. That will certainly split the Leave vote, but it will not beat an avowedly Revoke and Remain party.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > This is why Leavers should be advocating a referendum, of course.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > It still leaves it with about 20% in a GE which, given the likely %s of the other 3 contenders, gives it a fair chance of being in govt
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > That depends on the platforms. A pro-referendum or Remain Labour might be able to get around 40% of the 38%. The rest would be down to what its manifesto said on other issues. If the Brexit party is getting 20% of the GE vote, then anything over 30% might well lead to power. And the Tories are definitely not going to get over 30% if the Brexit party is getting 20%.
>
> >
>
> > All dependent on Labour getting rid of Corbyn and winning back all the votes they lost last week.
>
>
>
> Getting rid of Corbyn is the slam dunk that probably guarantees victory. A platform which includes a referendum is probably going to get 30%+ of the vote in England. The SNP has Scotland totally sewn up.
>
> A Labour Party with the possibility of getting 40% on a revoke & reform platform relies on us not having left by the next GE, in which case it will be a single issue election all about Brexit. I think that suits Farage just fine.
Yep, I think it absolutely suits Farage. Revoke and remain (more likely referendum) gets Labour an uptick in support among people whose major priority is avoiding Brexit - basically most of those who voted for Remain parties last Thursday. The other policies come into play for the millions whose priority is not that and who did not vote last Thursday.
Maybe he does...
More realistically, not getting rid of Corbyn will see the election campaign on many different issues. The Tories and Brexit Party can get into discussions between themselves about who hates the Europeans more but don't be amazed if a large portion of the electorate pays some attention to everything/anything else.
> Somebody clearly knows something about Leadsom.
>
> It’s possible she has some big Brexit backers (who might otherwise run for leader) who are poised to declare for her imminently, with one or two others from the other wing of the party.
Word has got out that another march on Westminster is planned.
He'd rather pull out than get beaten. (An apt metaphor he should have applied earlier in life)
Even if we assume that GE turnout is around 70% that would still leave a figure of around 14%.
> > @bookseller said:
> > As a die-hard Lib Dem supporting remainer (snowflake, libtard, whatever), I've come to the conclusion that another referendum would be an utter disaster. The country is still split, we don't need another referendum to tell us that.
> >
> > The best way forward would be a General Election (a de facto Referendum you might argue, because the risk will be a single-issue election, but at least one mapped onto our representative democratic institutions and not a plebiscite). Then we could have a newly constituted HoC decide on WA and start negotiating our long-term relationship with the EU. We'll have to do that whether it's No Deal, Deal Revoke tbh.
> >
> > There is a real opportunity to have HoC thrash out Brexit for the long-term. And it'll get rid of the 'angry mob' (on both sides) by placing the extremists back into our parliamentary system. The only risk is that we'll be dealing with Brexit for years to come, but let's face it - we're already there.
>
> Agreed, this is what should happen. Not sure it will though.
I think this comment from kyf_100 earlier in the thread nails it:
>I increasingly think a second referendum, narrow vote to remain, followed a couple of years later by a Brexit party majority and a disorderly no deal Brexit, quite possibly rejoining five years later is the most likely outcome now. A dialectic process. Testing both polar extremes to destruction before returning to some kind of consensus.
I know Schrödinger's Brexit has been a term of abuse, but actually it's a useful way of looking at the problem. Setting up another experiment doesn't make sense until we 'open the box'. We have to apply a bit of Hegel and 'aufheben'...