.. If the Tories had carried through on their threats to expel anyone supporting the BXP they’d have few members left.
Maybe the remainers going for leadership are relying on this - the true blues who voted BXP all get kicked out leaving a remainer rump in the Conservative Party.
> @brendan16 said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > @geoffw said: > > > > > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > > > > > > > > > > Its blatantly obvious the deal is dead and the backstop can't be gotten through Parliament. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It is also obvious the EU and Ireland especially don't actually want No Deal. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > However the EU and Ireland refuse to renegotiate the backstop as they don't take No Deal seriously. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The best chance of getting a deal through then is to elect a serious No Dealer. Call Ireland's bluff. If they still refuse to negotiate we end this farce with No Deal and move on. But if they take us seriously and negotiate then that's the best chance of getting an actual deal through. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > We need a Nixon who can go to China. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > You do not address the fact that a no deal PM who actually carries it out will be toast before he/she can carry it out > > > > > > > > > > Slight logical impasse there. > > > > > > > > Not really. If it is clear towards the end of October we are going out on a no deal a vonc will be swift and and a revoke notice can be served > > > > 2nd referendum. > > > > Parliament aren’t going to solve this: they won’t vote for the WA or No Deal and don’t have bollocks to Revoke. There will be the votes for a 2nd ref. > > > > A GE would resolve nothing and might even make things *worse* by creating an even more divided and hung parliament. > > > > Meanwhile, polls look very close for 2nd referendum and the People will provide the direct instruction back to the MPs, which the new Tory PM can explain he (or she) has no choice on, which should then resolve and unblock things one way or another. > > And a close second referendum will? A referendum which has no backing via a general election result (as the 2016 one did) as the parties that backed it in 2017 only got 10% of the vote? > > And what happens if turnout is lower (as a large section of voters may abstain in disgust at the disregarding of the 2016 vote) and a third or more of the country potentially cannot support either option on the ballot paper (e.g. a variant of May's deal vs remain). Or we have multiple leave options to divide the leave campaign and only one remain option? > > Of course no doubt this one will be binding - only if remain wins of course! > > A victory for democracy for half the country - or just a rigged vote for the rest. > >
So how else do you square this unsquareable circle....
> @geoffw said: > @Big_G_NorthWales > You said this: "You do not address the fact that a no deal PM who actually carries it out will be toast before he/she can carry it out" > I know what you mean, but as written it does not make sense.
Yes I know it was a bit confusing but the point is that everyone will know a few days before the 31st October and the HOC including upto 40 conservative mps will vonc the new PM to stop it and either revoke or as Casino Royale says put it to a referendum which of course would need EU approval
This is a real reason why the leadership candidates cannot just parrot we are off with no deal
> @Sean_F said: > > @HYUFD said: > > Campbell expelled from Labour, Widdecombe expelled from the Tories and Heseltine suspended, 3 of the biggest figures from the last 3 decades > > Life comes at you fast, these days.
I don't think Widdecombe had any issues with her expulsion at all as she made clear at the time - she had already quit as chairman of her local Conservative association in advance and had already moved on. Tory HQ merely got in first - before she quit anyway.
> @WhisperingOracle said: > > @PaulM said: > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > I must be the only one who finds Rory Stewart’s approach a bit weird. > > > > > > It would be impressive if he were travelling across the country speaking to people from all walks of life, as part of a listening exercise designed to gear toward a leadership pitch to “unite the nation”, but - as it is - he’s confined himself to the inner suburbs of London and his method comes across as a little bit Grindr. The fact the MSM are impressed by this tells you everything about how London centric they are. > > > > > > A charitable view would be that Rory is playing to his strengths - this is exactly what he did in Iraq and Afghanistan by going out to talk to tribal elders - and making it an asset. > > > > > > An uncharitable one would be that he’s entirely in his comfort zone doing what he’s always done and looking a bit like a lost Jesus who could use some spare change. > > > > Have to admit, politics aside I am always far more impressed than I should be by British people who are comfortable conversing in foreign languages, as Rory Stewart did chatting in Dari with someone in a Barking street. Reminded me of Roy Hodgson taking questions in Italian from journos at the Euro2012. > > It was exactly the kind of global approach that enabled Britain to build and sustain an empire for so long, as written below. The great irony of the Brexiters' "Global Britain" is that it's a sort of Ladybird book view of the past, with the self-importance of an empire and global role, but not much of the outward-looking pragmatism required to keep anything like that going.
The irony is that the British Empire has become associated with 'Jewel in the Crown' / 'Passage to India' imagery when it was in decline rather than 18th century when it was created.
> @Mysticrose said: > > @tlg86 said: > > Sky News reporting that Bad Al has been kicked out of the Labour Party. > > That's unbelievable > > The lunatics have taken over the asylum
A rather unfortunate analogy to use in this particular case
Poor old Jeremy (happy birthday to him btw) just can't for the life of him understand why Labour members, Labour members should want to act in the interests of the country as they see it rather than just work to elect a Labour government.
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > > @HYUFD said: > > twitter.com/Peston/status/1133336893536505857?s=20 > > "even though he did not promote what he was doing"...hmmm....
No he just said so live on the BBC, Sky News etc etc. He could have just said its a secret ballot.
> I think you're right. In an election one must appeal to the electorate and present your case in a manner designed to gain a plurality. That kind of naked engineering has gone out of fashion post-Blair, except for Cummings who applied it ruthlessly. Rory's approach is interesting but irrelevant to the election he is in.
I think that's really simplistic. If Stewart simply talks to MPs directly he definitely loses - he's only been a Cabinet minister for ten minutes, his Brexit policy is basically May's and the most people are otherwise going to know him for is an association with the Iraq debacle and a cairn.
What he is trying to do is prove to MPs that in practice he has a message, and is a messenger, that voters will respond to. That he understands how the modern media works - of videos on Twitter as opposed to newspaper opinion pieces - and can use it to win support that will save Tory seats. That he has a vision that goes beyond triangulating between the Tory factions but talks to the electorate.
He will still certainly fail. Almost certainly. Yet the latter strategy gives him his only chance of success.
This question mentioned below of Rory Stewart's popularity with non-Boris members seems a very interesting one. Given by responses I've seen here and elsewhere, it goes without saying that he attracts a more positive response from current non-Tory voters than almost any of the other currently working frontbench Tory politicians ; if he already has a surprising, small base of support at the Tory grassroots as well to combine with that, in a future scenario of Brexit having been stuffed up by the hardliners, he could be one to watch in a big way.
The LibDems really have chosen a damned silly time to have a leadership contest, especially one which looks likely to produce a very lightweight leader at a time when they really need to get serious again.
She wont need to cancel her resignation, the Queen will just polite ask if she is willing to continue as PM, seeing as how Boris cannot command a majority.
I just spoke to Conservative HQ and asked them "If Theresa May resigns on June 7th, when will she offically cease to be Leader of the Conservative Party?"
The man on the phone said she would be caretaker PM until a new leader is chosen. When I said what about the role of Conservative Party Leader, who will be the leader on June 8th? He said he didn't know. I asked who would know, and he said he didn't know!
How can this market be settled?!?!
I note this correspondence and similar others with some worry. One problem I have with political betting is that the thresholds may be poorly defined, and - as you are finding out - disputes are resolved at the speed of the lowest-paid person at the help desk. When it looked like Greece was about to default, several people waged large amounts on the default, but when Greece restructured the bookies did not pay out as a restructure is technically not a default. Similarly here: helpdesk people do not necessarily know more than a layman and will not be able to answer your and other people's questions.
And this is what the tory party are now going through. People thinking they can support no dealers for a short period to manage electorally and return to mainstream in a few years are missing the bigger picture.
The Tories have done well electorally as they are a pro business and jobs party which is seen as competent. The new Tory party will have neither of those features, just a peddler of emotions.
Lisa Nandy and the rest of the Labour MPs against a second vote are seriously beginning to get on my nerves now .
What do they propose is the way out now.
She expects Labour to ignore 80% of its members , and now 70% of its voters to keep her happy .
Labour have to come off the fence and make a choice .
I passed that point a long time ago. If she means what she says she would have made the difficult choice of approving a sub optimal deal. But just moaning about a ref is pointless.
> @brendan16 said: > > @oxfordsimon said: > > > @Mysticrose said: > > > > @tlg86 said: > > > > Sky News reporting that Bad Al has been kicked out of the Labour Party. > > > > > > That's unbelievable > > > > > > The lunatics have taken over the asylum > > > > It was inevitable. He said he wasn't going to vote Labour in an interview before the election. He confirmed who he voted for on Sunday night. > > > > This was done precisely to provoke this reaction. > > > > He can play the victim card and Corbyn can play the purity card - both can pretend to be winners > > He broke the party rules by confirming publicly he had backed another party in an election where Labour were standing - others have been expelled for the same thing. You can't have one rule for lowly party members and another for Alastair Campbell. > > He knew what he was doing - and now pays the price. >
Then expell fucking Corbyn then for celebrating the defeat of Labour
Is a second referendum now understood to mean revoke vs no deal? Or is the idea still for May's deal(or a "renegotiated" version of it) to go vs remain? I think no deal stands a very good chance against remain because no deal retains this fluid definition of what it actually means, much like leave in ref1, whereas remain would fairly easily beat any negotiated deal (it would be like the compromise of AV vs FPTP).
It is also obvious the EU and Ireland especially don't actually want No Deal.
Robert McNamara kept throwing troops into Vietnam because he insisted they could win. He invented a metric (a kill ratio IIRC) to justify this, then ended up falsifying the figures, or at least stretching them to implausible lengths. He eventually went slightly mad and was moved sideways into a job where he couldn't hurt anybody anymore. Failure to understand the conflict and behave appropriately is a key contributor to defeat.
So entryists who until a couple of years ago were doing everything possible to destroy the Labour Party while supporting various far-left nutjob organisations have decided to expel someone who has given 100% for the Labour Party.
> @Mysticrose said: > > @tlg86 said: > > Sky News reporting that Bad Al has been kicked out of the Labour Party. > > That's unbelievable > > The lunatics have taken over the asylum
Frankly I would have expected nothing else - ditto the Tories expelling Widdecombe. If you belong to a political party , and reveal that you have now supported another party in preference to your own I believe you have to accept that your membership will be withdrawn. Why should such a person continue to have any voting rights within the party? The Tories should also expel Heseltine.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @geoffw said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales > > You said this: "You do not address the fact that a no deal PM who actually carries it out will be toast before he/she can carry it out" > > I know what you mean, but as written it does not make sense. > > Yes I know it was a bit confusing but the point is that everyone will know a few days before the 31st October and the HOC including upto 40 conservative mps will vonc the new PM to stop it and either revoke or as Casino Royale says put it to a referendum which of course would need EU approval > > This is a real reason why the leadership candidates cannot just parrot we are off with no deal
I suspect that those leadership candidates advocating No Deal are absolutely banking on Parliament stopping them. Johnson for one will wet himself if they don't.
If the BXP were to win a GE it would be fascinating watching it in government. It would redefine the word "dysfunctional". How long would you give, 6 weeks, 6 months?
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > Amazing how it took what felt like 27 years to decide if Red Ken might need ejecting from the Labour Party as needed to go through a massive long winded process, but Bad Al, straight out the door.
But Livingstone WAS expelled from the Labour Party in the late 1990s for standing as an Independent candidate against Labour's Frank Dobson.
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @KentRising said: > > > @isam said: > > > Seems like they might be right. He’s not holding that camera but seemingly wants it to look like he is. Small point. > > > > > > https://twitter.com/politicsjoe_uk/status/1133329806848864256 > > > > Oh god! That's clearly him pretending. Not so authentic Rory now.... > > Alternatively, the camera is on a tripod and his hand is hovering over the on-off controls..... > > Jesus, has politics come to this?
Comments
> https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1133335028585377792
Don't go getting any ideas Theresa...
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > @geoffw said:
> >
> > > > @Philip_Thompson said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > Its blatantly obvious the deal is dead and the backstop can't be gotten through Parliament.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > It is also obvious the EU and Ireland especially don't actually want No Deal.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > However the EU and Ireland refuse to renegotiate the backstop as they don't take No Deal seriously.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > The best chance of getting a deal through then is to elect a serious No Dealer. Call Ireland's bluff. If they still refuse to negotiate we end this farce with No Deal and move on. But if they take us seriously and negotiate then that's the best chance of getting an actual deal through.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > We need a Nixon who can go to China.
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > You do not address the fact that a no deal PM who actually carries it out will be toast before he/she can carry it out
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Slight logical impasse there.
> >
> >
> >
> > Not really. If it is clear towards the end of October we are going out on a no deal a vonc will be swift and and a revoke notice can be served
> >
> > 2nd referendum.
> >
> > Parliament aren’t going to solve this: they won’t vote for the WA or No Deal and don’t have bollocks to Revoke. There will be the votes for a 2nd ref.
> >
> > A GE would resolve nothing and might even make things *worse* by creating an even more divided and hung parliament.
> >
> > Meanwhile, polls look very close for 2nd referendum and the People will provide the direct instruction back to the MPs, which the new Tory PM can explain he (or she) has no choice on, which should then resolve and unblock things one way or another.
>
> And a close second referendum will? A referendum which has no backing via a general election result (as the 2016 one did) as the parties that backed it in 2017 only got 10% of the vote?
>
> And what happens if turnout is lower (as a large section of voters may abstain in disgust at the disregarding of the 2016 vote) and a third or more of the country potentially cannot support either option on the ballot paper (e.g. a variant of May's deal vs remain). Or we have multiple leave options to divide the leave campaign and only one remain option?
>
> Of course no doubt this one will be binding - only if remain wins of course!
>
> A victory for democracy for half the country - or just a rigged vote for the rest.
>
>
So how else do you square this unsquareable circle....
> @Big_G_NorthWales
> You said this: "You do not address the fact that a no deal PM who actually carries it out will be toast before he/she can carry it out"
> I know what you mean, but as written it does not make sense.
Yes I know it was a bit confusing but the point is that everyone will know a few days before the 31st October and the HOC including upto 40 conservative mps will vonc the new PM to stop it and either revoke or as Casino Royale says put it to a referendum which of course would need EU approval
This is a real reason why the leadership candidates cannot just parrot we are off with no deal
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Campbell expelled from Labour, Widdecombe expelled from the Tories and Heseltine suspended, 3 of the biggest figures from the last 3 decades
>
> Life comes at you fast, these days.
I don't think Widdecombe had any issues with her expulsion at all as she made clear at the time - she had already quit as chairman of her local Conservative association in advance and had already moved on. Tory HQ merely got in first - before she quit anyway.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1133337404738289664?s=20
> twitter.com/Peston/status/1133336893536505857?s=20
"even though he did not promote what he was doing"...hmmm....
> https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1133341308515430401
Has he. Labour in complete meltdown in Scotland
Where is Justin when you need him
Brexit Party EFDD 5,248,533 30.5
Liberal Democrats ALDE 3,367,284 19.6
Labour Party S&D 2,347,255 13.7
Are the %s to settle on !
> > @PaulM said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > I must be the only one who finds Rory Stewart’s approach a bit weird.
> > >
> > > It would be impressive if he were travelling across the country speaking to people from all walks of life, as part of a listening exercise designed to gear toward a leadership pitch to “unite the nation”, but - as it is - he’s confined himself to the inner suburbs of London and his method comes across as a little bit Grindr. The fact the MSM are impressed by this tells you everything about how London centric they are.
> > >
> > > A charitable view would be that Rory is playing to his strengths - this is exactly what he did in Iraq and Afghanistan by going out to talk to tribal elders - and making it an asset.
> > >
> > > An uncharitable one would be that he’s entirely in his comfort zone doing what he’s always done and looking a bit like a lost Jesus who could use some spare change.
> >
> > Have to admit, politics aside I am always far more impressed than I should be by British people who are comfortable conversing in foreign languages, as Rory Stewart did chatting in Dari with someone in a Barking street. Reminded me of Roy Hodgson taking questions in Italian from journos at the Euro2012.
>
> It was exactly the kind of global approach that enabled Britain to build and sustain an empire for so long, as written below. The great irony of the Brexiters' "Global Britain" is that it's a sort of Ladybird book view of the past, with the self-importance of an empire and global role, but not much of the outward-looking pragmatism required to keep anything like that going.
The irony is that the British Empire has become associated with 'Jewel in the Crown' / 'Passage to India' imagery when it was in decline rather than 18th century when it was created.
there has been a pretty much complete takeover.
> > @tlg86 said:
> > Sky News reporting that Bad Al has been kicked out of the Labour Party.
>
> That's unbelievable
>
> The lunatics have taken over the asylum
A rather unfortunate analogy to use in this particular case
> > @HYUFD said:
> > twitter.com/Peston/status/1133336893536505857?s=20
>
> "even though he did not promote what he was doing"...hmmm....
No he just said so live on the BBC, Sky News etc etc. He could have just said its a secret ballot.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-48417885/i-voted-liberal-democrat-says-alastair-campbell
> I think you're right. In an election one must appeal to the electorate and present your case in a manner designed to gain a plurality. That kind of naked engineering has gone out of fashion post-Blair, except for Cummings who applied it ruthlessly. Rory's approach is interesting but irrelevant to the election he is in.
I think that's really simplistic. If Stewart simply talks to MPs directly he definitely loses - he's only been a Cabinet minister for ten minutes, his Brexit policy is basically May's and the most people are otherwise going to know him for is an association with the Iraq debacle and a cairn.
What he is trying to do is prove to MPs that in practice he has a message, and is a messenger, that voters will respond to. That he understands how the modern media works - of videos on Twitter as opposed to newspaper opinion pieces - and can use it to win support that will save Tory seats. That he has a vision that goes beyond triangulating between the Tory factions but talks to the electorate.
He will still certainly fail. Almost certainly. Yet the latter strategy gives him his only chance of success.
> https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1133335028585377792
Lol - next up Theresa May
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1133341308515430401
>
> Has he. Labour in complete meltdown in Scotland
>
> Where is Justin when you need him
It has not been mentioned much but they also had a complete meltdown in Wales as well.
> https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1133336893536505857
>
>
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1133337404738289664
>
>
>
> this is no longer the labour party.
>
> there has been a pretty much complete takeover.
And this is what the tory party are now going through. People thinking they can support no dealers for a short period to manage electorally and return to mainstream in a few years are missing the bigger picture.
The Tories have done well electorally as they are a pro business and jobs party which is seen as competent. The new Tory party will have neither of those features, just a peddler of emotions.
> > @isam said:
> > Seems like they might be right. He’s not holding that camera but seemingly wants it to look like he is. Small point.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/politicsjoe_uk/status/1133329806848864256
>
> Oh god! That's clearly him pretending. Not so authentic Rory now....
Alternatively, the camera is on a tripod and his hand is hovering over the on-off controls.....
Jesus, has politics come to this?
> > @oxfordsimon said:
> > > @Mysticrose said:
> > > > @tlg86 said:
> > > > Sky News reporting that Bad Al has been kicked out of the Labour Party.
> > >
> > > That's unbelievable
> > >
> > > The lunatics have taken over the asylum
> >
> > It was inevitable. He said he wasn't going to vote Labour in an interview before the election. He confirmed who he voted for on Sunday night.
> >
> > This was done precisely to provoke this reaction.
> >
> > He can play the victim card and Corbyn can play the purity card - both can pretend to be winners
>
> He broke the party rules by confirming publicly he had backed another party in an election where Labour were standing - others have been expelled for the same thing. You can't have one rule for lowly party members and another for Alastair Campbell.
>
> He knew what he was doing - and now pays the price.
>
Then expell fucking Corbyn then for celebrating the defeat of Labour
https://mobile.twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/185542633056239616?lang=en
> > @Scott_P said:
> > twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/1133319274574045185
>
> Balfour lost his own seat as PM. You'd expect the Times to know that (or use Google or phone the in-house librarian). It has come up before on pb.
>
> https://www.gov.uk/government/history/past-prime-ministers/arthur-james-balfour
Strictly speaking he had been replaced as Prime Minister before he lost his seat.
whereas remain would fairly easily beat any negotiated deal (it would be like the compromise of AV vs FPTP).
> > @tlg86 said:
> > Sky News reporting that Bad Al has been kicked out of the Labour Party.
>
> That's unbelievable
>
> The lunatics have taken over the asylum
Frankly I would have expected nothing else - ditto the Tories expelling Widdecombe. If you belong to a political party , and reveal that you have now supported another party in preference to your own I believe you have to accept that your membership will be withdrawn. Why should such a person continue to have any voting rights within the party? The Tories should also expel Heseltine.
> > @geoffw said:
> > @Big_G_NorthWales
> > You said this: "You do not address the fact that a no deal PM who actually carries it out will be toast before he/she can carry it out"
> > I know what you mean, but as written it does not make sense.
>
> Yes I know it was a bit confusing but the point is that everyone will know a few days before the 31st October and the HOC including upto 40 conservative mps will vonc the new PM to stop it and either revoke or as Casino Royale says put it to a referendum which of course would need EU approval
>
> This is a real reason why the leadership candidates cannot just parrot we are off with no deal
I suspect that those leadership candidates advocating No Deal are absolutely banking on Parliament stopping them. Johnson for one will wet himself if they don't.
If the BXP were to win a GE it would be fascinating watching it in government. It would redefine the word "dysfunctional". How long would you give, 6 weeks, 6 months?
> > @Scott_P said:
> > twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/1133319274574045185
>
> Balfour lost his own seat as PM. You'd expect the Times to know that (or use Google or phone the in-house librarian). It has come up before on pb.
>
> https://www.gov.uk/government/history/past-prime-ministers/arthur-james-balfour
Balfour lost his seat at the January 1906 election but had resigned as PM early in December 1905 so was Leader of the Opposition when defeated.
> Amazing how it took what felt like 27 years to decide if Red Ken might need ejecting from the Labour Party as needed to go through a massive long winded process, but Bad Al, straight out the door.
But Livingstone WAS expelled from the Labour Party in the late 1990s for standing as an Independent candidate against Labour's Frank Dobson.
> > @KentRising said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > Seems like they might be right. He’s not holding that camera but seemingly wants it to look like he is. Small point.
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/politicsjoe_uk/status/1133329806848864256
> >
> > Oh god! That's clearly him pretending. Not so authentic Rory now....
>
> Alternatively, the camera is on a tripod and his hand is hovering over the on-off controls.....
>
> Jesus, has politics come to this?
Where is Roger when we need him?