Well, I see Rory Stewart is getting one or two Conservatives excited but I have absolutely no idea what he stands for or what his position on Brexit and A50 is or would be.
Turning up in Barking on a Bank Holiday might be a bold move (I'd have suggested lunch at the Wood Oven given where he seemed to be) but there's more to politics than simply "having conversations". Making a virtue of being non-ideological only gets you so far. I can imagine Stewart being "strong" on defence given his background but what about the environment. the NHS, housing, transport, crime etc.
He's the blank slate onto which anyone and everyone can project their hopes and aspirations - that again may take him a long way but, as May discovered, once you have to take the hard decisions the tent starts to empty as people realise you aren't what they thought or hoped you were.
> @geoffw said: > Rory the Tory is no such thing according to what I read some time ago (can't source it I'm afraid). He was casting round for some means to enter Parliament and decided that the Conservative Party would be the best vehicle when Cameron opened up the candidates to anyone who expressed an interest. I don't think he will be seen as true blue.
All the more reason to like him: we need politicians capable of genuinely seeing and accommodating multiple points of view. If that describes Stewart (others can judge that), we need him or someone like him. Of course, we'll end up with an angry partisan instead.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > Some thoughts on Peterborough: > > 1. Rather unusually, it looks to me as though all the main possible contenders have chosen strong candidates. Mike Greene for the BXP is a local businessman with strong roots in Peterborough, and seems pretty credible as a candidate even if he did falter in an interview on policy: > > https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/brexit-party-peterborough-candidate-mike-greene-interview-1-6048868 > > Paul Bristow for the Conservatives also has good local roots and has been campaigning for a while on local issues. He's a Leaver but seems sane enough. Labour has selected Lisa Forbes who again has good local roots and who was their candidate in 2015. She seems to be campaigning on issues other than Brexit, > > 2. One possible slight curveball in this is that Patrick O'Flynn is standing for the SDP. As a prominent former UKIP figure he might pick up some of the BXP's support; his pitch to differentiate himself from the BXP is that he wants Brexit but doesn't want their Thatcherite economics: > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48384070 > > 3. I don't think that Labour will be punished by voters for the odious behaviour of Fiona Onasanya. As a general rule, voters don't blame successor candidates. > > 4. Of course the BXP has a big disadvantage in having no local organisation and zero (official!) canvassing data. However, they can probably compensate for that by flooding the constituency with volunteers from elsewhere, and with guidance from experienced Tory defectors who know the constituency. > > 5. The Greens and LibDems are not going to do well here but between them will probably take chunk out of Labour's potential vote. > > Overall, it looks like a Brexit Party win to me, but the current odds aren't compelling. >
> @geoffw said: > Rory the Tory is no such thing according to what I read some time ago (can't source it I'm afraid). He was casting round for some means to enter Parliament and decided that the Conservative Party would be the best vehicle when Cameron opened up the candidates to anyone who expressed an interest. I don't think he will be seen as true blue.
Another interesting parallel with Macmillan, then. He was an admirer of Lloyd George orginally, and up to his ears in Liberalism at University, and then cast around for a bit and joined the Tories.
@Alistair Meeks made the good point that the anti-EU vote would be split several ways, favouring Labour, but I think that the vote for anti-EU parties other than TBP will now be very small. So, a likely TBP win, but the odds are not tempting.
Rory is another Buttigieg candidate who does better on PB than in wider circles - pleasant, rational, slightly vacuous, and little real cut-through to voters. I don't think he'll get anywhere at all in this leadership election. The non-front-runners all need a USP to get MPs to seriously consider them - merely being quietly thoughtful probably isn't it.
> @NickPalmer said: > Rory is another Buttigieg candidate who does better on PB than in wider circles - pleasant, rational, slightly vacuous, and little real cut-through to voters. I don't think he'll get anywhere at all in this leadership election. The non-front-runners all need a USP to get MPs to seriously consider them - merely being quietly thoughtful probably isn't it.
Vacuous is not something I think he is, but pleasant and rational by the standards of our current politics he definitely is.
The tweet from Lisa Nandy, the Wigan MP (and just up the road from me) is spot on. We may be in a pie-eating bubble here, but anyone thinking a second referendum will go well is barmy. The only hope is a WA vs No deal run-off.
I can't speak for the Londoners, but they're barmy anyway.
Rory is another Buttigieg candidate who does better on PB than in wider circles - pleasant, rational, slightly vacuous, and little real cut-through to voters. I don't think he'll get anywhere at all in this leadership election. The non-front-runners all need a USP to get MPs to seriously consider them - merely being quietly thoughtful probably isn't it.
The Equality and Human Rights Commission said it has launched a formal investigation into whether the Labour Party “unlawfully discriminated against, harassed or victimised people because they are Jewish”. - Guardian live blog.
> @GarethoftheVale2 said: > Regarding Peterborough, I would bet on Labour to hold as they are always good at getting their postal votes wrapped up before election day. > > Remember we have been here before with old UKIP and Heywood, South Shields etc
I have bet on Labour. I think they're in deep trouble there, but the odds were too good to ignore.
> @GarethoftheVale2 said: > Regarding Peterborough, I would bet on Labour to hold as they are always good at getting their postal votes wrapped up before election day. > > Remember we have been here before with old UKIP and Heywood, South Shields etc
In years past, people voted tactically to prevent UKIP winning byelections. This time the anti-BXP will splinter to allow BXP to win. The only possible party I can see an anti-BXP vote coalescing round is LD, but it won't be anywhere near enough.
> @NickPalmer said: > Rory is another Buttigieg candidate who does better on PB than in wider circles - pleasant, rational, slightly vacuous, and little real cut-through to voters. I don't think he'll get anywhere at all in this leadership election. The non-front-runners all need a USP to get MPs to seriously consider them - merely being quietly thoughtful probably isn't it.
I'd vote for Rory if I was a Tory MP, and I might vote for a Rory-led Tory Party if her were leader.
But I'm not a Tory MP, I'm a Lib Dem member and there's probably many more current Tories who hate his campaign than potential swing voters like me who like it. Saddening, but undeniable.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > The Equality and Human Rights Commission said it has launched a formal investigation into whether the Labour Party “unlawfully discriminated against, harassed or victimised people because they are Jewish”. - Guardian live blog.
what did it announced before if not a formal investigation?
> @williamglenn said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > Con/Brexit coupon elections are likely if Raab or Boris become PM? > > Why are they likely? What's in it for Farage?
Virtually guaranteed to win enough seats to make a Con/Brexit coalition government viable and become Deputy Prime Minister (followed by a seat in HoL after retirement) ?
> @geoffw said: > Rory is another Buttigieg candidate who does better on PB than in wider circles - pleasant, rational, slightly vacuous, and little real cut-through to voters. I don't think he'll get anywhere at all in this leadership election. The non-front-runners all need a USP to get MPs to seriously consider them - merely being quietly thoughtful probably isn't it. > > > Vacuous is not something I think he is. > > The vacuum seems to be sucking you in!
Well I don't have a vote as a Tory member, and it's exceptionally unlikely that I ever will, so I would say what's interesting is whether the Tory party has a future as a unification party or a radical populist party. In the short term, the focus is going to be all populism, and if or when that fails, figures like him will be waiting in the wings.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > The Equality and Human Rights Commission said it has launched a formal investigation into whether the Labour Party “unlawfully discriminated against, harassed or victimised people because they are Jewish”. - Guardian live blog.
what did it announced before if not a formal investigation?
Previously they were only considering launching a formal investigation.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > > Con/Brexit coupon elections are likely if Raab or Boris become PM? > > > > Why are they likely? What's in it for Farage? > > Virtually guaranteed to win enough seats to make a Con/Brexit coalition government viable and become Deputy Prime Minister (followed by a seat in HoL after retirement) ?
How many Cons would actually vote down their own government when the crunch comes. Possibly five? Also would Cuks abstain if they were confident of stopping GE as that would give them the best chance of joining LD (would they have them if they abstained) and possibly holding their seats.
> @Quincel said: > > @NickPalmer said: > > Rory is another Buttigieg candidate who does better on PB than in wider circles - pleasant, rational, slightly vacuous, and little real cut-through to voters. I don't think he'll get anywhere at all in this leadership election. The non-front-runners all need a USP to get MPs to seriously consider them - merely being quietly thoughtful probably isn't it. > > I'd vote for Rory if I was a Tory MP, and I might vote for a Rory-led Tory Party if her were leader. > > But I'm not a Tory MP, I'm a Lib Dem member and there's probably many more current Tories who hate his campaign than potential swing voters like me who like it. Saddening, but undeniable.
I agree with all that, sadly. I'll add that part of the problem is the end of the media that is more liberal/left in outlook is endlessly obsessed with the mad ravings of the far right. They mean to shine a light on the horror of it, but it ends up giving valuable attention to the wrong sort of people. If only editors didn't need to worry about clicks and were in the business of analysis instead. But that's not how it works.
I know it's unfashionable but I genuinely think Boris is committed to Brexit and when he says we're leaving in 31st October with or without a deal he means it.
Oh it won't be a coupon - merely if we're out to Farage's satisfaction (Probably won't be) then he won't run BXP at the next GE. If we're out but not to his satisfaction, they'll run but be a minor force I think as most leavers will have taken the half loaf of say the WA and focus on other issues. If we're not out at all then the Tories are in deepest shit.
Edit: "MPs think his sole intention is to attack Brexiteers and make Gove look like a moderate unifier
Rory and Gove are friends and both their campaigns are closely linked to the Onward think tank. It is widely expected Rory will endorse Gove when he is knocked out in the first round"
So, not only has Jeremy Corbyn successfully secured Labour's lowest ever result in a national election, he has also triumphantly led the party to become only the second, after the BNP, to be formally investigated for racism by the EHRC. These are unprecedented achievements.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > The Equality and Human Rights Commission said it has launched a formal investigation into whether the Labour Party “unlawfully discriminated against, harassed or victimised people because they are Jewish”. - Guardian live blog. > > > what did it announced before if not a formal investigation? > > Previously they were only considering launching a formal investigation.
Interesting then.
i suspect a lot of disclosure waivers require a formal investigation, however long that will take.
Practically guaranteed to be a shitshow (as it would be for any political party).
The popularity of Rory is a reflection of the unpopularity of May. Oh for a leader who can actually have a normal(ish) conversation, that can answer a question, that can seek common ground and look to build a consensus, that doesn't think trotting out the same old meaningless drivel while running down the clock is actually doing the job, that is willing to actually engage with his audience or interviewer and not treat anyone who disagrees with him as an irrational eccentric but as someone with a legitimate point of view that needs to be addressed.
It's an understandable reaction to the last 3 years but let's face it, it will never catch on.
I was trying to remember what the Tory leadership race reminded me of - Animal Kwackers from the 1970s. It was equally surreal with Rory the blue lion.
Rory Rory tell us a story, Rory Rory tell it like it is!
> @NickPalmer said: > Rory is another Buttigieg candidate who does better on PB than in wider circles - pleasant, rational, slightly vacuous, and little real cut-through to voters. I don't think he'll get anywhere at all in this leadership election. The non-front-runners all need a USP to get MPs to seriously consider them - merely being quietly thoughtful probably isn't it.
I think it's worse than that - he's the favourite candidate for everyone who is not, and is unlikely ever to be, a Conservative voter. Now maybe choosing him would indicate a Blair-like confidence in reaching out to the other side, but I don't see the Tory Party currently being in that mood.
> @argyllrs said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > > > > Con/Brexit coupon elections are likely if Raab or Boris become PM? > > > > > > Why are they likely? What's in it for Farage? > > > > Virtually guaranteed to win enough seats to make a Con/Brexit coalition government viable and become Deputy Prime Minister (followed by a seat in HoL after retirement) ? > > How many Cons would actually vote down their own government when the crunch comes. Possibly five? Also would Cuks abstain if they were confident of stopping GE as that would give them the best chance of joining LD (would they have them if they abstained) and possibly holding their seats.
Ten to twenty if it was definitely no deal in October. Rebellions supporting non VONC motions to stop no deal against an explicitly no deal leader probably looking at 40-50
The interesting thing about Rory Stewart is that he is a genuine throwback to the Victorian age and a certain type of Empire hand. He is everything that Jacob Rees Mogg would like to be seen as, but isn't.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > > Con/Brexit coupon elections are likely if Raab or Boris become PM? > > > > Why are they likely? What's in it for Farage? > > Virtually guaranteed to win enough seats to make a Con/Brexit coalition government viable and become Deputy Prime Minister (followed by a seat in HoL after retirement) ?
Ask Nick Clegg what being Deputy Prime Minister in a coalition does for your reputation.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @argyllrs said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > > > > > > Con/Brexit coupon elections are likely if Raab or Boris become PM? > > > > > > > > Why are they likely? What's in it for Farage? > > > > > > Virtually guaranteed to win enough seats to make a Con/Brexit coalition government viable and become Deputy Prime Minister (followed by a seat in HoL after retirement) ? > > > > How many Cons would actually vote down their own government when the crunch comes. Possibly five? Also would Cuks abstain if they were confident of stopping GE as that would give them the best chance of joining LD (would they have them if they abstained) and possibly holding their seats. > > Ten to twenty if it was definitely no deal in October. Rebellions supporting non VONC motions to stop no deal against an explicitly no deal leader probably looking at 40-50 > >
And how many votes are need for a VoNC to stop No Deal? Just 3-5 of that 10-20...
> @SouthamObserver said: > The interesting thing about Rory Stewart is that he is a genuine throwback to the Victorian age and a certain type of Empire hand. He is everything that Jacob Rees Mogg would like to be seen as, but isn't.
Yup. As I've seen mentioned elsewhere Rees-Mogg likes to use his manners to give the impression of a one-nation Tory of the old school, both in his unquestionable loyalty to institutions but also civility to smooth this process. Stewart is the genuine article, by contrast.
> @Pulpstar said: > Oh it won't be a coupon - merely if we're out to Farage's satisfaction (Probably won't be) then he won't run BXP at the next GE. > If we're out but not to his satisfaction, they'll run but be a minor force I think as most leavers will have taken the half loaf of say the WA and focus on other issues. > If we're not out at all then the Tories are in deepest shit.
Con can't deliver any form of Brexit without a new Parliament (this Parliament will never pass WA and they certainly won't allow No Deal) - So if the next Con leader genuinely wants to leave (which I think Raab or Boris do) there will have to be a general election in October - And the only way they can ensure the leave vote isn't split is to do a deal with Farage...
> Rory is another Buttigieg candidate who does better on PB than in wider circles - pleasant, rational, slightly vacuous, and little real cut-through to voters. I don't think he'll get anywhere at all in this leadership election. The non-front-runners all need a USP to get MPs to seriously consider them - merely being quietly thoughtful probably isn't it.
>
>
> Vacuous is not something I think he is.
>
> The vacuum seems to be sucking you in!
Well I don't have a vote as a Tory member, and it's exceptionally unlikely that I ever will, so I would say what's interesting is whether the Tory party has a future as a unification party or a radical populist party. In the short term, the focus is going to be all populism, and if or when that fails, figures like him will be waiting in the wings.
It wisnae me that said that, it was NPXMP! Vanilla mess unscrambled is this:
Rory is another Buttigieg candidate who does better on PB than in wider circles - pleasant, rational, slightly vacuous, and little real cut-through to voters. I don't think he'll get anywhere at all in this leadership election. The non-front-runners all need a USP to get MPs to seriously consider them - merely being quietly thoughtful probably isn't it.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > Oh it won't be a coupon - merely if we're out to Farage's satisfaction (Probably won't be) then he won't run BXP at the next GE. > > If we're out but not to his satisfaction, they'll run but be a minor force I think as most leavers will have taken the half loaf of say the WA and focus on other issues. > > If we're not out at all then the Tories are in deepest shit. > > Con can't deliver any form of Brexit without a new Parliament (this Parliament will never pass WA and they certainly won't allow No Deal) - So if the next Con leader genuinely wants to leave (which I think Raab or Boris do) there will have to be a general election in October - And the only way they can ensure the leave vote isn't split is to do a deal with Farage...
What is Farage like working with other people? Has he got a good track record? Will he think Boris trustworthy?
How does the line on privatising the NHS work with the public? Might not be popular perhaps?
> @Mysticrose said: > Betting post. > > Are all the odds on Peterborough for win only? I'd love to bet on LibDems taking second place but buggered if I can find anyone offering it?
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @NickPalmer said: > > Rory is another Buttigieg candidate who does better on PB than in wider circles - pleasant, rational, slightly vacuous, and little real cut-through to voters. I don't think he'll get anywhere at all in this leadership election. The non-front-runners all need a USP to get MPs to seriously consider them - merely being quietly thoughtful probably isn't it. > > I think it's worse than that - he's the favourite candidate for everyone who is not, and is unlikely ever to be, a Conservative voter. Now maybe choosing him would indicate a Blair-like confidence in reaching out to the other side, but I don't see the Tory Party currently being in that mood.
Certainly the noisier, nastier part of the Conservative Party. What happened to the polite middle class older female Conservative member? The kind that would instinctively go for Stewart's mannerism over the likes of, say, Baker? Do they still exist?
> @SouthamObserver said: > The interesting thing about Rory Stewart is that he is a genuine throwback to the Victorian age and a certain type of Empire hand. He is everything that Jacob Rees Mogg would like to be seen as, but isn't.
Stewart would have done well in the 2005 campaign. Sadly it's 2019.
> @isam said: > A should-win and a must-win for BXP. LibDems a strong second. > > What do you make of Lisa Nandy’s comments on a second referendum/no deal? She was your choice to replace Corbyn wasn’t she?
I like Nandy and think she talks a lot of sense about a lot of things. But I don't see her presenting any solutions. She says what she doesn't want on Brexit, but not how to get to what she does want - which is a soft Brexit that does not cause any damage to her constituents. The strategy she has advocated - and which Labour has followed up to now - clearly has not worked.
I also think that, for understandable reasons, she does not say anything about the very big elephant in the room: Jeremy Corbyn. You could not get a leader more designed to repel huge swathes of voters in the Midlands and the North.
> @Scott_P said: > I think it's worse than that - he's the favourite candidate for everyone who is not, and is unlikely ever to be, a Conservative voter. > > As I mentioned upthread, he is liked by Tory members who hate BoZo
here's a suggestion for the new Tory leader and PM. Put forward legislation for a second referendum between the EU deal (the WA) and No Deal to be completed by the end of October.
It may well be voted down but it would concentrate the minds. Would Labour vote against or abstain? Probably vote against, claiming they want Remain on the ballot. It might ameliorate the tide to Brexit, give the new man a boost and shows he's trying to clear the logjam.
Con can't deliver any form of Brexit without a new Parliament (this Parliament will never pass WA and they certainly won't allow No Deal) - So if the next Con leader genuinely wants to leave (which I think Raab or Boris do) there will have to be a general election in October - And the only way they can ensure the leave vote isn't split is to do a deal with Farage...
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @NickPalmer said: > > Rory is another Buttigieg candidate who does better on PB than in wider circles - pleasant, rational, slightly vacuous, and little real cut-through to voters. I don't think he'll get anywhere at all in this leadership election. The non-front-runners all need a USP to get MPs to seriously consider them - merely being quietly thoughtful probably isn't it. > > I think it's worse than that - he's the favourite candidate for everyone who is not, and is unlikely ever to be, a Conservative voter. Now maybe choosing him would indicate a Blair-like confidence in reaching out to the other side, but I don't see the Tory Party currently being in that mood.
The Tory party is never in that mood. That's why they kept their members away from leadership elections for as long as they could, then made sure the MPs held onto a veto.
I must be the only one who finds Rory Stewart’s approach a bit weird.
It would be impressive if he were travelling across the country speaking to people from all walks of life, as part of a listening exercise designed to gear toward a leadership pitch to “unite the nation”, but - as it is - he’s confined himself to the inner suburbs of London and his method comes across as a little bit Grindr. The fact the MSM are impressed by this tells you everything about how London centric they are.
A charitable view would be that Rory is playing to his strengths - this is exactly what he did in Iraq and Afghanistan by going out to talk to tribal elders - and making it an asset.
An uncharitable one would be that he’s entirely in his comfort zone doing what he’s always done and looking a bit like a lost Jesus who could use some spare change.
Yes - the issue at dispute is whether you should distribute the lower preferences of the eliminated Sinn Fein candidate. This would give the independent for change candidate 3rd place (as they are more transfer friendly) - rather than the Fianna Fail candidate who is currently 3rd and has exceeded the quota.
Even the elections minister has got confused about the law he introduced - this morning he said the SF votes should be distributed and now he has contradicted that based on advice from the lawyers. So it looks like Fianna Fail will get the 3rd seat - and go to Brussels whereas the 4th placed independent will have to wait for Brexit (which may never of course happen).
Its a bit of a farce when ministers don't even understand the legislation they personally brought through parliament - couldn't happen here of course...
I must be the only one who finds Rory Stewart’s approach a bit weird.
It would be impressive if he were travelling across the country speaking to people from all walks of life, as part of a listening exercise designed to gear toward a leadership pitch to “unite the nation”, but - as it is - he’s confined himself to the inner suburbs of London and his method comes across as a little bit Grindr. The fact the MSM are impressed by this tells you everything about how London centric they are.
> @Sean_F said: > > It would be fascinating to see TBP win 350 seats on a third of the vote. With six parties in contention, FPTP delivers capricious results.
> @GIN1138 said: > > Con can't deliver any form of Brexit without a new Parliament (this Parliament will never pass WA and they certainly won't allow No Deal) - So if the next Con leader genuinely wants to leave (which I think Raab or Boris do) there will have to be a general election in October - And the only way they can ensure the leave vote isn't split is to do a deal with Farage... -----------
I must be the only one who finds Rory Stewart’s approach a bit weird.
It would be impressive if he were travelling across the country speaking to people from all walks of life, as part of a listening exercise designed to gear toward a leadership pitch to “unite the nation”, but - as it is - he’s confined himself to the inner suburbs of London and his method comes across as a little bit Grindr. The fact the MSM are impressed by this tells you everything about how London centric they are.
I must be the only one who finds Rory Stewart’s approach a bit weird.
It would be impressive if he were travelling across the country speaking to people from all walks of life, as part of a listening exercise designed to gear toward a leadership pitch to “unite the nation”, but - as it is - he’s confined himself to the inner suburbs of London and his method comes across as a little bit Grindr. The fact the MSM are impressed by this tells you everything about how London centric they are.
> A should-win and a must-win for BXP. LibDems a strong second.
>
> What do you make of Lisa Nandy’s comments on a second referendum/no deal? She was your choice to replace Corbyn wasn’t she?
I like Nandy and think she talks a lot of sense about a lot of things. But I don't see her presenting any solutions. She says what she doesn't want on Brexit, but not how to get to what she does want - which is a soft Brexit that does not cause any damage to her constituents. The strategy she has advocated - and which Labour has followed up to now - clearly has not worked.
I also think that, for understandable reasons, she does not say anything about the very big elephant in the room: Jeremy Corbyn. You could not get a leader more designed to repel huge swathes of voters in the Midlands and the North.
> @MikeSmithson said: > > @Mysticrose said: > > Betting post. > > > > Are all the odds on Peterborough for win only? I'd love to bet on LibDems taking second place but buggered if I can find anyone offering it? > > My guess is that Ladbrokes might put one up.
That isn't a response to anything. It is obfuscation and denial.
At any other time in modern political history, this should have ended several careers of high-ranking MPs well before it got to the formal investigation phase - it is shocking that it hasn't.
> @Casino_Royale said: > I must be the only one who finds Rory Stewart’s approach a bit weird. > > It would be impressive if he were travelling across the country speaking to people from all walks of life, as part of a listening exercise designed to gear toward a leadership pitch to “unite the nation”, but - as it is - he’s confined himself to the inner suburbs of London and his method comes across as a little bit Grindr. The fact the MSM are impressed by this tells you everything about how London centric they are. > > He's going to Wigan tomorrow > > Fair enough.
Yes - but why does Rory keep going to leave voting areas like Barking and Dagenham and Wigan where there are no Tory MPs, almost no members and few Tory voters.
Isn't he trying to convince Conservatives - it would be useful surely to go somewhere they exist?
I just spoke to Conservative HQ and asked them "If Theresa May resigns on June 7th, when will she offically cease to be Leader of the Conservative Party?"
The man on the phone said she would be caretaker PM until a new leader is chosen. When I said what about the role of Conservative Party Leader, who will be the leader on June 8th? He said he didn't know. I asked who would know, and he said he didn't know!
> @brendan16 said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > I must be the only one who finds Rory Stewart’s approach a bit weird. > > > > It would be impressive if he were travelling across the country speaking to people from all walks of life, as part of a listening exercise designed to gear toward a leadership pitch to “unite the nation”, but - as it is - he’s confined himself to the inner suburbs of London and his method comes across as a little bit Grindr. The fact the MSM are impressed by this tells you everything about how London centric they are. > > > > He's going to Wigan tomorrow > > > > Fair enough. > > Yes - but why does Rory keep going to leave voting areas like Barking and Dagenham and Wigan where there are no Tory MPs, almost no members and few Tory voters. > > Isn't he trying to convince Conservatives - it would be useful surely to go somewhere they exist?
Tories got 40% in Dagenham last time, sort of seat they should be looking at if they want an outright majority.
I see the EHRC havne't resitrcted themselves to the technically illegal, e.g. "whether the Party has responded to complaints of unlawful acts in a lawful, efficient and effective manner".
Does anyone think Labour (or any other part) deals with complaints efficiently and effectively all the time?
Comments
Are all the odds on Peterborough for win only? I'd love to bet on LibDems taking second place but buggered if I can find anyone offering it?
Well, I see Rory Stewart is getting one or two Conservatives excited but I have absolutely no idea what he stands for or what his position on Brexit and A50 is or would be.
Turning up in Barking on a Bank Holiday might be a bold move (I'd have suggested lunch at the Wood Oven given where he seemed to be) but there's more to politics than simply "having conversations". Making a virtue of being non-ideological only gets you so far. I can imagine Stewart being "strong" on defence given his background but what about the environment. the NHS, housing, transport, crime etc.
He's the blank slate onto which anyone and everyone can project their hopes and aspirations - that again may take him a long way but, as May discovered, once you have to take the hard decisions the tent starts to empty as people realise you aren't what they thought or hoped you were.
> Rory the Tory is no such thing according to what I read some time ago (can't source it I'm afraid). He was casting round for some means to enter Parliament and decided that the Conservative Party would be the best vehicle when Cameron opened up the candidates to anyone who expressed an interest. I don't think he will be seen as true blue.
All the more reason to like him: we need politicians capable of genuinely seeing and accommodating multiple points of view. If that describes Stewart (others can judge that), we need him or someone like him.
Of course, we'll end up with an angry partisan instead.
https://twitter.com/patel4witham/status/1133277541081522176
> Some thoughts on Peterborough:
>
> 1. Rather unusually, it looks to me as though all the main possible contenders have chosen strong candidates. Mike Greene for the BXP is a local businessman with strong roots in Peterborough, and seems pretty credible as a candidate even if he did falter in an interview on policy:
>
> https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/brexit-party-peterborough-candidate-mike-greene-interview-1-6048868
>
> Paul Bristow for the Conservatives also has good local roots and has been campaigning for a while on local issues. He's a Leaver but seems sane enough. Labour has selected Lisa Forbes who again has good local roots and who was their candidate in 2015. She seems to be campaigning on issues other than Brexit,
>
> 2. One possible slight curveball in this is that Patrick O'Flynn is standing for the SDP. As a prominent former UKIP figure he might pick up some of the BXP's support; his pitch to differentiate himself from the BXP is that he wants Brexit but doesn't want their Thatcherite economics:
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48384070
>
> 3. I don't think that Labour will be punished by voters for the odious behaviour of Fiona Onasanya. As a general rule, voters don't blame successor candidates.
>
> 4. Of course the BXP has a big disadvantage in having no local organisation and zero (official!) canvassing data. However, they can probably compensate for that by flooding the constituency with volunteers from elsewhere, and with guidance from experienced Tory defectors who know the constituency.
>
> 5. The Greens and LibDems are not going to do well here but between them will probably take chunk out of Labour's potential vote.
>
> Overall, it looks like a Brexit Party win to me, but the current odds aren't compelling.
>
Is there a book for a BXP/LD 1-2?
> Rory the Tory is no such thing according to what I read some time ago (can't source it I'm afraid). He was casting round for some means to enter Parliament and decided that the Conservative Party would be the best vehicle when Cameron opened up the candidates to anyone who expressed an interest. I don't think he will be seen as true blue.
Another interesting parallel with Macmillan, then. He was an admirer of Lloyd George orginally, and up to his ears in Liberalism at University, and then cast around for a bit and joined the Tories.
>
> Is there a book for a BXP/LD 1-2?
Not that I know of, but I expect some more markets to appear.
> Rory is another Buttigieg candidate who does better on PB than in wider circles - pleasant, rational, slightly vacuous, and little real cut-through to voters. I don't think he'll get anywhere at all in this leadership election. The non-front-runners all need a USP to get MPs to seriously consider them - merely being quietly thoughtful probably isn't it.
Vacuous is not something I think he is, but pleasant and rational by the standards of our current politics he definitely is.
Rory the non-Tory might be all the things mentioned but that won't wash with the blue rinsers. They're fired up for Brexit and will do a Jonestown.
https://twitter.com/chrisdeerin/status/1133296950017708035
Remember we have been here before with old UKIP and Heywood, South Shields etc
> https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/1133319274574045185
Con/Brexit coupon elections are likely if Raab or Boris become PM?
It should be interesting when it comes out
I can't speak for the Londoners, but they're barmy anyway.
Rory after he loses:
https://tenor.com/uqx9.gif
I know which one I'll be listening to.
>
> Con/Brexit coupon elections are likely if Raab or Boris become PM?
Why are they likely? What's in it for Farage?
> Regarding Peterborough, I would bet on Labour to hold as they are always good at getting their postal votes wrapped up before election day.
>
> Remember we have been here before with old UKIP and Heywood, South Shields etc
I have bet on Labour. I think they're in deep trouble there, but the odds were too good to ignore.
> Regarding Peterborough, I would bet on Labour to hold as they are always good at getting their postal votes wrapped up before election day.
>
> Remember we have been here before with old UKIP and Heywood, South Shields etc
In years past, people voted tactically to prevent UKIP winning byelections. This time the anti-BXP will splinter to allow BXP to win. The only possible party I can see an anti-BXP vote coalescing round is LD, but it won't be anywhere near enough.
> Rory is another Buttigieg candidate who does better on PB than in wider circles - pleasant, rational, slightly vacuous, and little real cut-through to voters. I don't think he'll get anywhere at all in this leadership election. The non-front-runners all need a USP to get MPs to seriously consider them - merely being quietly thoughtful probably isn't it.
I'd vote for Rory if I was a Tory MP, and I might vote for a Rory-led Tory Party if her were leader.
But I'm not a Tory MP, I'm a Lib Dem member and there's probably many more current Tories who hate his campaign than potential swing voters like me who like it. Saddening, but undeniable.
> The Equality and Human Rights Commission said it has launched a formal investigation into whether the Labour Party “unlawfully discriminated against, harassed or victimised people because they are Jewish”. - Guardian live blog.
what did it announced before if not a formal investigation?
> > @GIN1138 said:
> >
> > Con/Brexit coupon elections are likely if Raab or Boris become PM?
>
> Why are they likely? What's in it for Farage?
Virtually guaranteed to win enough seats to make a Con/Brexit coalition government viable and become Deputy Prime Minister (followed by a seat in HoL after retirement) ?
> Defecation watch if the first line is to be believed.
Christ
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/1133319274574045185
>
> Con/Brexit coupon elections are likely if Raab or Boris become PM?
How does Raab lose a 23K majority?
Does he mean Boris?
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/1133319274574045185
>
> Con/Brexit coupon elections are likely if Raab or Boris become PM?
More likely with Raab, Boris is sure to bottle Brexit.
> Rory is another Buttigieg candidate who does better on PB than in wider circles - pleasant, rational, slightly vacuous, and little real cut-through to voters. I don't think he'll get anywhere at all in this leadership election. The non-front-runners all need a USP to get MPs to seriously consider them - merely being quietly thoughtful probably isn't it.
>
>
> Vacuous is not something I think he is.
>
> The vacuum seems to be sucking you in!
Well I don't have a vote as a Tory member, and it's exceptionally unlikely that I ever will, so I would say what's interesting is whether the Tory party has a future as a unification party or a radical populist party. In the short term, the focus is going to be all populism, and if or when that fails, figures like him will be waiting in the wings.
https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1133322457014775810
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > >
> > > Con/Brexit coupon elections are likely if Raab or Boris become PM?
> >
> > Why are they likely? What's in it for Farage?
>
> Virtually guaranteed to win enough seats to make a Con/Brexit coalition government viable and become Deputy Prime Minister (followed by a seat in HoL after retirement) ?
How many Cons would actually vote down their own government when the crunch comes. Possibly five? Also would Cuks abstain if they were confident of stopping GE as that would give them the best chance of joining LD (would they have them if they abstained) and possibly holding their seats.
> > @NickPalmer said:
> > Rory is another Buttigieg candidate who does better on PB than in wider circles - pleasant, rational, slightly vacuous, and little real cut-through to voters. I don't think he'll get anywhere at all in this leadership election. The non-front-runners all need a USP to get MPs to seriously consider them - merely being quietly thoughtful probably isn't it.
>
> I'd vote for Rory if I was a Tory MP, and I might vote for a Rory-led Tory Party if her were leader.
>
> But I'm not a Tory MP, I'm a Lib Dem member and there's probably many more current Tories who hate his campaign than potential swing voters like me who like it. Saddening, but undeniable.
I agree with all that, sadly.
I'll add that part of the problem is the end of the media that is more liberal/left in outlook is endlessly obsessed with the mad ravings of the far right. They mean to shine a light on the horror of it, but it ends up giving valuable attention to the wrong sort of people.
If only editors didn't need to worry about clicks and were in the business of analysis instead. But that's not how it works.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/1133319274574045185
> >
> > Con/Brexit coupon elections are likely if Raab or Boris become PM?
>
> More likely with Raab, Boris is sure to bottle Brexit.
I disagree.
I know it's unfashionable but I genuinely think Boris is committed to Brexit and when he says we're leaving in 31st October with or without a deal he means it.
Now Gove on the other hand...
> Oh Rory Stewart!
>
> https://twitter.com/chrisdeerin/status/1133296950017708035
Poor Ruth, cast aside as the great centrist-progressive white hope.
If we're out but not to his satisfaction, they'll run but be a minor force I think as most leavers will have taken the half loaf of say the WA and focus on other issues.
If we're not out at all then the Tories are in deepest shit.
> https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1133311398484860930
>
> https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1133322457014775810
against Gove or for Gove?
Edit: "MPs think his sole intention is to attack Brexiteers and make Gove look like a moderate unifier
Rory and Gove are friends and both their campaigns are closely linked to the Onward think tank. It is widely expected Rory will endorse Gove when he is knocked out in the first round"
I blame Zionists and Blairites.
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > The Equality and Human Rights Commission said it has launched a formal investigation into whether the Labour Party “unlawfully discriminated against, harassed or victimised people because they are Jewish”. - Guardian live blog.
>
>
> what did it announced before if not a formal investigation?
>
> Previously they were only considering launching a formal investigation.
Interesting then.
i suspect a lot of disclosure waivers require a formal investigation, however long that will take.
Practically guaranteed to be a shitshow (as it would be for any political party).
It's an understandable reaction to the last 3 years but let's face it, it will never catch on.
Rory Rory tell us a story, Rory Rory tell it like it is!
https://uploadstars.com/video/8K3RYYSXAKHG
> Rory is another Buttigieg candidate who does better on PB than in wider circles - pleasant, rational, slightly vacuous, and little real cut-through to voters. I don't think he'll get anywhere at all in this leadership election. The non-front-runners all need a USP to get MPs to seriously consider them - merely being quietly thoughtful probably isn't it.
I think it's worse than that - he's the favourite candidate for everyone who is not, and is unlikely ever to be, a Conservative voter. Now maybe choosing him would indicate a Blair-like confidence in reaching out to the other side, but I don't see the Tory Party currently being in that mood.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > >
> > > > Con/Brexit coupon elections are likely if Raab or Boris become PM?
> > >
> > > Why are they likely? What's in it for Farage?
> >
> > Virtually guaranteed to win enough seats to make a Con/Brexit coalition government viable and become Deputy Prime Minister (followed by a seat in HoL after retirement) ?
>
> How many Cons would actually vote down their own government when the crunch comes. Possibly five? Also would Cuks abstain if they were confident of stopping GE as that would give them the best chance of joining LD (would they have them if they abstained) and possibly holding their seats.
Ten to twenty if it was definitely no deal in October. Rebellions supporting non VONC motions to stop no deal against an explicitly no deal leader probably looking at 40-50
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > >
> > > Con/Brexit coupon elections are likely if Raab or Boris become PM?
> >
> > Why are they likely? What's in it for Farage?
>
> Virtually guaranteed to win enough seats to make a Con/Brexit coalition government viable and become Deputy Prime Minister (followed by a seat in HoL after retirement) ?
Ask Nick Clegg what being Deputy Prime Minister in a coalition does for your reputation.
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1133248283424509953
> > @argyllrs said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > >
> > > > > Con/Brexit coupon elections are likely if Raab or Boris become PM?
> > > >
> > > > Why are they likely? What's in it for Farage?
> > >
> > > Virtually guaranteed to win enough seats to make a Con/Brexit coalition government viable and become Deputy Prime Minister (followed by a seat in HoL after retirement) ?
> >
> > How many Cons would actually vote down their own government when the crunch comes. Possibly five? Also would Cuks abstain if they were confident of stopping GE as that would give them the best chance of joining LD (would they have them if they abstained) and possibly holding their seats.
>
> Ten to twenty if it was definitely no deal in October. Rebellions supporting non VONC motions to stop no deal against an explicitly no deal leader probably looking at 40-50
>
>
And how many votes are need for a VoNC to stop No Deal?
Just 3-5 of that 10-20...
> The interesting thing about Rory Stewart is that he is a genuine throwback to the Victorian age and a certain type of Empire hand. He is everything that Jacob Rees Mogg would like to be seen as, but isn't.
Yup. As I've seen mentioned elsewhere Rees-Mogg likes to use his manners to give the impression of a one-nation Tory of the old school, both in his unquestionable loyalty to institutions but also civility to smooth this process. Stewart is the genuine article, by contrast.
> Oh it won't be a coupon - merely if we're out to Farage's satisfaction (Probably won't be) then he won't run BXP at the next GE.
> If we're out but not to his satisfaction, they'll run but be a minor force I think as most leavers will have taken the half loaf of say the WA and focus on other issues.
> If we're not out at all then the Tories are in deepest shit.
Con can't deliver any form of Brexit without a new Parliament (this Parliament will never pass WA and they certainly won't allow No Deal) - So if the next Con leader genuinely wants to leave (which I think Raab or Boris do) there will have to be a general election in October - And the only way they can ensure the leave vote isn't split is to do a deal with Farage...
> https://twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1133320156585893889
It's missing a shark fin circling in the background. Farage. The great white (emphasis not on great).
Vanilla mess unscrambled is this: There you go..
https://twitter.com/Junomaco/status/1133328088333475842
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > Oh it won't be a coupon - merely if we're out to Farage's satisfaction (Probably won't be) then he won't run BXP at the next GE.
> > If we're out but not to his satisfaction, they'll run but be a minor force I think as most leavers will have taken the half loaf of say the WA and focus on other issues.
> > If we're not out at all then the Tories are in deepest shit.
>
> Con can't deliver any form of Brexit without a new Parliament (this Parliament will never pass WA and they certainly won't allow No Deal) - So if the next Con leader genuinely wants to leave (which I think Raab or Boris do) there will have to be a general election in October - And the only way they can ensure the leave vote isn't split is to do a deal with Farage...
What is Farage like working with other people? Has he got a good track record? Will he think Boris trustworthy?
How does the line on privatising the NHS work with the public? Might not be popular perhaps?
> Well, if you will get involved with a party run by Stalinists, what do you expect:
>
> https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1133248283424509953
Mason should be on breakdown watch. Sad.
> Betting post.
>
> Are all the odds on Peterborough for win only? I'd love to bet on LibDems taking second place but buggered if I can find anyone offering it?
My guess is that Ladbrokes might put one up.
> > @NickPalmer said:
> > Rory is another Buttigieg candidate who does better on PB than in wider circles - pleasant, rational, slightly vacuous, and little real cut-through to voters. I don't think he'll get anywhere at all in this leadership election. The non-front-runners all need a USP to get MPs to seriously consider them - merely being quietly thoughtful probably isn't it.
>
> I think it's worse than that - he's the favourite candidate for everyone who is not, and is unlikely ever to be, a Conservative voter. Now maybe choosing him would indicate a Blair-like confidence in reaching out to the other side, but I don't see the Tory Party currently being in that mood.
Certainly the noisier, nastier part of the Conservative Party.
What happened to the polite middle class older female Conservative member? The kind that would instinctively go for Stewart's mannerism over the likes of, say, Baker? Do they still exist?
> The interesting thing about Rory Stewart is that he is a genuine throwback to the Victorian age and a certain type of Empire hand. He is everything that Jacob Rees Mogg would like to be seen as, but isn't.
Stewart would have done well in the 2005 campaign. Sadly it's 2019.
> A should-win and a must-win for BXP. LibDems a strong second.
>
> What do you make of Lisa Nandy’s comments on a second referendum/no deal? She was your choice to replace Corbyn wasn’t she?
I like Nandy and think she talks a lot of sense about a lot of things. But I don't see her presenting any solutions. She says what she doesn't want on Brexit, but not how to get to what she does want - which is a soft Brexit that does not cause any damage to her constituents. The strategy she has advocated - and which Labour has followed up to now - clearly has not worked.
I also think that, for understandable reasons, she does not say anything about the very big elephant in the room: Jeremy Corbyn. You could not get a leader more designed to repel huge swathes of voters in the Midlands and the North.
> I think it's worse than that - he's the favourite candidate for everyone who is not, and is unlikely ever to be, a Conservative voter.
>
> As I mentioned upthread, he is liked by Tory members who hate BoZo
Well, that is heartening.
It may well be voted down but it would concentrate the minds. Would Labour vote against or abstain? Probably vote against, claiming they want Remain on the ballot. It might ameliorate the tide to Brexit, give the new man a boost and shows he's trying to clear the logjam.
> > @NickPalmer said:
> > Rory is another Buttigieg candidate who does better on PB than in wider circles - pleasant, rational, slightly vacuous, and little real cut-through to voters. I don't think he'll get anywhere at all in this leadership election. The non-front-runners all need a USP to get MPs to seriously consider them - merely being quietly thoughtful probably isn't it.
>
> I think it's worse than that - he's the favourite candidate for everyone who is not, and is unlikely ever to be, a Conservative voter. Now maybe choosing him would indicate a Blair-like confidence in reaching out to the other side, but I don't see the Tory Party currently being in that mood.
The Tory party is never in that mood. That's why they kept their members away from leadership elections for as long as they could, then made sure the MPs held onto a veto.
It would be impressive if he were travelling across the country speaking to people from all walks of life, as part of a listening exercise designed to gear toward a leadership pitch to “unite the nation”, but - as it is - he’s confined himself to the inner suburbs of London and his method comes across as a little bit Grindr. The fact the MSM are impressed by this tells you everything about how London centric they are.
A charitable view would be that Rory is playing to his strengths - this is exactly what he did in Iraq and Afghanistan by going out to talk to tribal elders - and making it an asset.
An uncharitable one would be that he’s entirely in his comfort zone doing what he’s always done and looking a bit like a lost Jesus who could use some spare change.
> More drama from Dublin count
>
> https://twitter.com/Junomaco/status/1133328088333475842
Yes - the issue at dispute is whether you should distribute the lower preferences of the eliminated Sinn Fein candidate. This would give the independent for change candidate 3rd place (as they are more transfer friendly) - rather than the Fianna Fail candidate who is currently 3rd and has exceeded the quota.
Even the elections minister has got confused about the law he introduced - this morning he said the SF votes should be distributed and now he has contradicted that based on advice from the lawyers. So it looks like Fianna Fail will get the 3rd seat - and go to Brussels whereas the 4th placed independent will have to wait for Brexit (which may never of course happen).
Its a bit of a farce when ministers don't even understand the legislation they personally brought through parliament - couldn't happen here of course...
https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/2019/0528/1052105-local-eu-elections/
>
> It would be fascinating to see TBP win 350 seats on a third of the vote. With six parties in contention, FPTP delivers capricious results.
Yes who needed an NHS anyway!
>
> Con can't deliver any form of Brexit without a new Parliament (this Parliament will never pass WA and they certainly won't allow No Deal) - So if the next Con leader genuinely wants to leave (which I think Raab or Boris do) there will have to be a general election in October - And the only way they can ensure the leave vote isn't split is to do a deal with Farage...
-----------
Why would Farage want to bail them out?
> > @Mysticrose said:
> > Betting post.
> >
> > Are all the odds on Peterborough for win only? I'd love to bet on LibDems taking second place but buggered if I can find anyone offering it?
>
> My guess is that Ladbrokes might put one up.
Thanks Mike. Will watch out for it.
> https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1133328034730266624
That isn't a response to anything. It is obfuscation and denial.
At any other time in modern political history, this should have ended several careers of high-ranking MPs well before it got to the formal investigation phase - it is shocking that it hasn't.
> I must be the only one who finds Rory Stewart’s approach a bit weird.
>
> It would be impressive if he were travelling across the country speaking to people from all walks of life, as part of a listening exercise designed to gear toward a leadership pitch to “unite the nation”, but - as it is - he’s confined himself to the inner suburbs of London and his method comes across as a little bit Grindr. The fact the MSM are impressed by this tells you everything about how London centric they are.
>
> He's going to Wigan tomorrow
>
> Fair enough.
Yes - but why does Rory keep going to leave voting areas like Barking and Dagenham and Wigan where there are no Tory MPs, almost no members and few Tory voters.
Isn't he trying to convince Conservatives - it would be useful surely to go somewhere they exist?
I just spoke to Conservative HQ and asked them "If Theresa May resigns on June 7th, when will she offically cease to be Leader of the Conservative Party?"
The man on the phone said she would be caretaker PM until a new leader is chosen. When I said what about the role of Conservative Party Leader, who will be the leader on June 8th? He said he didn't know. I asked who would know, and he said he didn't know!
How can this market be settled?!?!
> https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1133328034730266624
The EHRC cannot do their investigation properly because of 'cuts'
Labour are becoming more insane every day under Corbyn
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > I must be the only one who finds Rory Stewart’s approach a bit weird.
> >
> > It would be impressive if he were travelling across the country speaking to people from all walks of life, as part of a listening exercise designed to gear toward a leadership pitch to “unite the nation”, but - as it is - he’s confined himself to the inner suburbs of London and his method comes across as a little bit Grindr. The fact the MSM are impressed by this tells you everything about how London centric they are.
> >
> > He's going to Wigan tomorrow
> >
> > Fair enough.
>
> Yes - but why does Rory keep going to leave voting areas like Barking and Dagenham and Wigan where there are no Tory MPs, almost no members and few Tory voters.
>
> Isn't he trying to convince Conservatives - it would be useful surely to go somewhere they exist?
Tories got 40% in Dagenham last time, sort of seat they should be looking at if they want an outright majority.
Does anyone think Labour (or any other part) deals with complaints efficiently and effectively all the time?