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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And so to next week’s Peterborough by-election
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> 2 like Labour here.
Yep - a quick look at the wards tells me this is going to be a Brexit win...
Presumbly Eye will vote for the BXP.
There are three paths for the Tories:
- Go for No Deal and face infiltration by Brexit Party activists intent on stopping any softening of the policy, then reshaping the Tories into a national populist party from the top and the bottom Momentum style.
- Get an extension in order to renegotiate, and face electoral obliteration when they fail.
- Elect the most popular moderate with the public (Javid?), take the Deal and exit by the end of the year, then pivot to the centre and throw goodies at the electorate. BXP might win 10 seats but the Tories live to fight another day.
And I agree entirely with your main point, that MPs should put forward two candidates with whom they could live, instead of of this 'real choice' nonsense. Labour were bloody thick, but at least provided a clear warning of the potential consequences following such idiocy.
Yes, of course they are. How could they possibly have known there would be a by-election in Peterborough of all places?
> @brendan16 said:
> > @anothernick said:
> > > @brendan16 said:
> > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > Lisa Nandy and the rest of the Labour MPs against a second vote are seriously beginning to get on my nerves now .
> > > >
> > > > What do they propose is the way out now.
> > > >
> > > > She expects Labour to ignore 80% of its members , and now 70% of its voters to keep her happy .
> > > >
> > > > Labour have to come off the fence and make a choice .
> > >
> > > Because she represents Wigan not Wandsworth - and has some loyalty to the people who elected her on the 2017 Labour manifesto? The Brexit party won 42% in Wigan and using the Campbell methodology pro leave candidates won more than 55% of the vote there last Thursday.
> > >
> > > The Labour party membership is overwhelmingly London based and all the top shadow cabinet roles are held by London MPs (leader and shadow CE, Home Secretary, foreign secretary and Brexit secretary) - unfortunately if you only design policies which are backed by Londoners you aren't going to win elections (and ironically catering to what London wants above everywhere else was what delivered Brexit in the first place).
> > >
> > > There is more to winning elections than carrying Camden and Islington.
> >
> > So what policy would you suggest Labour adopts so that it can appeal to both hard Brexiters in Wigan and hard Remainers in Camden?
>
> Respect the vote we had in 2016 and agree a deal - and don't insult people in Wigan by telling them they need to keep voting until they deliver the result people in Camden want as people in Camden are more important or think they are)?
"Respect the result" does not mean agreeing with it. I respect the results last Thursday but that does not mean I have to support the Brexit party. We already know the deal the EU is offering and Labour has voted against it three times. There is no suggestion that the EU will change its position. The choice we have is no deal, May's deal or no Brexit.
> FPT I said this would happen:
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1133158165799931904
>
>
>
> The last time a UK parliamentary party deliberately let in an extreme candidate to give the membership "a real choice", he won,brought in many from the fringes and reshaped the party in his own image.
> There are three paths for the Tories:
>
> - Go for No Deal and face infiltration by Brexit Party activists intent on stopping any softening of the policy, then reshaping the Tories into a national populist party from the top and the bottom Momentum style.
> - Get an extension in order to renegotiate, and face electoral obliteration when they fail.
> - Elect the most popular moderate with the public (Javid?), take the Deal and exit by the end of the year, then pivot to the centre and throw goodies at the electorate. BXP might win 10 seats but the Tories live to fight another day.
It's the Guido lot, isn't it? Johnson has always been close to them. Like him, Paul Staines is a race-baiting, lying, hypocrite - so it's a perfect fit.
I wonder if that revelation helps or hinders Boris.
>
> The last time a UK parliamentary party deliberately let in an extreme candidate to give the membership "a real choice", he won,brought in many from the fringes and reshaped the party in his own image.
The comparison between Johnson and Corbyn is very tenuous. Johnson is, ultimately, an establishment candidate - he was Foreign Secretary until a few months ago, for goodness sake. Right now he'll play the maverick outsider game with the ERG to get on the ballot and then win it, but you watch him drop them like a handful of something unpleasant the second he's got the job. He'll reshape nothing if he gets it.
> So, before we all pile in to free money on the Brexit Party, what are the circumstances which sees them losing?
Differential turnout that saw Brexit Party voters give in to election fatigue before enthused Lib Dem voters who successfully persuade Labour, Green and Conservative voters to vote tactically to stop Farage, demonstrating the difference between an air-war European election campaign and the ground war of a by-election campaign.
It's a stretch on two counts, at least.
> So, before we all pile in to free money on the Brexit Party, what are the circumstances which sees them losing?
Tory party loyalty when it comes to electing an MP
My main approach here is to lay the Tories.
> https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1133307353716199424
Alternatively it comes across a man going to odd places (e.g. Costa coffee in Barking or public parks), advertising his availability on twitter for a hook up and then engaging with any old stranger who happens to turn up to discuss 'politics'.
Its certainly novel but also rather bizarre?
It claims that 129 Tory MPs (more than 41% of the parliamentary party) have already backed one of the candidates. Hunt is top with the backing of 29 MPs, with Boris Johnson second with 24 backers. Close behind is Johnson’s old rival Michael Gove on 23 and Dominic Raab on 20.
Sajid Javid is the only other candidate to break into double figures with the support of 12 MPs. Andrea Leadson and Rory Stewart have only manage two backers each, and none have yet plumped Kit Malthouse."
> https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1133307353716199424
This Rory Stewart fella is really doing it for me. It's so refreshing to see his calm monologues after all the angry bluster of recent times. It's actually starting to get me thinking about how politics could be improved.
A world away from pugnacious politicians like Farage and Johnson. I sincerely wish him well.
> So, before we all pile in to free money on the Brexit Party, what are the circumstances which sees them losing?
I am not convinced we can read across from the European elections, which became a de facto referendum in which neither Labour nor Conservatives offered an unambiguous position, to by-elections (or general elections) that might be decided on other issues. GE2017 showed that life ain't that simple.
It would not surprise me if there is a backlash against Labour based on its former MP but I'd want to see constituency polling or even canvassing reports before risking my hard-earned.
Based on the Ukip experience, it is also possible Nigel will fall out with his candidate, Mike Greene, who is used to being his own boss, before polling day rather than waiting until after Greene is elected and becomes TBP leader in the Commons. It will save time.
> So, before we all pile in to free money on the Brexit Party, what are the circumstances which sees them losing?
The circumstance is that people see the difference between different types of election. The polls indicate Brexit Party support at a General Election is around half that at a European Election, with Labour and the Tories higher. So the European Election result indicates a fairly close race.
The Brexit Party have a reasonable chance next week but so do Labour (and the Conservatives and even Lib Dems may fancy it on a split vote).
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1133307353716199424
>
> This Rory Stewart fella is really doing it for me. It's so refreshing to see his calm monologues after all the angry bluster of recent times. It's actually starting to get me thinking about how politics could be improved.
>
> A world away from pugnacious politicians like Farage and Johnson. I sincerely wish him well.
He could be a new Macmillan type - what Cameron wanted to be - but I don't think most Tories at the moment are far-sighted or bright enough to go for that, and in the short-term, I can understand their Brexit terror.
> > @Freggles said:
> > FPT I said this would happen:
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1133158165799931904
> >
> >
> >
> > The last time a UK parliamentary party deliberately let in an extreme candidate to give the membership "a real choice", he won,brought in many from the fringes and reshaped the party in his own image.
> > There are three paths for the Tories:
> >
> > - Go for No Deal and face infiltration by Brexit Party activists intent on stopping any softening of the policy, then reshaping the Tories into a national populist party from the top and the bottom Momentum style.
> > - Get an extension in order to renegotiate, and face electoral obliteration when they fail.
> > - Elect the most popular moderate with the public (Javid?), take the Deal and exit by the end of the year, then pivot to the centre and throw goodies at the electorate. BXP might win 10 seats but the Tories live to fight another day.
>
> It's the Guido lot, isn't it? Johnson has always been close to them. Like him, Paul Staines is a race-baiting, lying, hypocrite - so it's a perfect fit.
It is the Guido lot. One of the most divisive forces in the country today.
Named after a terrorist, interestingly.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1133307353716199424
>
> Alternatively it comes across a man going to odd places (e.g. Costa coffee in Barking or public parks), advertising his availability on twitter for a hook up and then engaging with any old stranger who happens to turn up to discuss 'politics'.
>
> Its certainly novel but also rather bizarre?
The problem with this approach is that the public don't have any say in this contest.
He needs to be talking to MPs. Guido's list says he has a measly 2 backers compared to 19 each for Gove and Raab
> > @ah009 said:
> > So, before we all pile in to free money on the Brexit Party, what are the circumstances which sees them losing?
>
> The circumstance is that people see the difference between different types of election. The polls indicate Brexit Party support at a General Election is around half that at a European Election, with Labour and the Tories higher. So the European Election result indicates a fairly close race.
>
> The Brexit Party have a reasonable chance next week but so do Labour (and the Conservatives and even Lib Dems may fancy it on a split vote).
To me clear, do you see that a switcher-driven, or turnout?
> https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1133309312292589568
>
>
>
> RS is campaigning to be the next tory leader but one. Which, admittedly, could be before this Xmas.
I suspect it could be before the autumn conference as I'm struggling to see how many of them would win a VoNC within Parliament.
> Labour and the Tories again facing the Eye of the storm in Peterborough.
>
> Presumbly Eye will vote for the BXP.
Yeah but when Lab, Con, Lib, Green and MRLP are all added together they will probably end up ahead for TBP so Brexit won't really win...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Eastbourne_by-election
You never know with by elections. There are no rules.
> It's a shame and it shouldn't matter, but looking like a starved William Dafoe really hurts Stewart's chances, even with his own party.
Years ago I once said on here that I thought Rory The Tory was a William Dafoe look-alike and no one else could see it!
You rock!
> > @brendan16 said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1133307353716199424
> >
> > Alternatively it comes across a man going to odd places (e.g. Costa coffee in Barking or public parks), advertising his availability on twitter for a hook up and then engaging with any old stranger who happens to turn up to discuss 'politics'.
> >
> > Its certainly novel but also rather bizarre?
>
> The problem with this approach is that the public don't have any say in this contest.
>
> He needs to be talking to MPs. Guido's list says he has a measly 2 backers compared to 19 each for Gove and Raab
I guess most MPs view of him will be he is a more pragmatic, persuasive version of continuity May. It will appeal to quite a few but they wont back him as he is seen as unable to win. Talking directly to the MPs definitely does not change that perception.
Doing something leftfield, getting media attention and engaging and persuading with the public is still very unlikely to work, but just might.
> It's a shame and it shouldn't matter, but looking like a starved William Dafoe really hurts Stewart's chances, even with his own party.
Will it? I can imagine him picking up a few votes from the benign elderly folk in the party, the ones who you can imagine saying "oh, what a lovely young man" (yes I know he's 46).
He won't pick up the Tommy Robinson votes that Johnson is targetting, but I'm really starting to get a sense of his appeal.
> > @SirNorfolkPassmore said:
> > > @ah009 said:
> > > So, before we all pile in to free money on the Brexit Party, what are the circumstances which sees them losing?
> >
> > The circumstance is that people see the difference between different types of election. The polls indicate Brexit Party support at a General Election is around half that at a European Election, with Labour and the Tories higher. So the European Election result indicates a fairly close race.
> >
> > The Brexit Party have a reasonable chance next week but so do Labour (and the Conservatives and even Lib Dems may fancy it on a split vote).
>
> To me clear, do you see that a switcher-driven, or turnout?
Bit of both. No doubt there are people who sat out Thursday who will vote next week, and some vice versa. But party ties are also quite loose - lots of people elected Tory and Labour councillors a few weeks ago and, while they didn't of course have the Brexit Party on the ballot, they often had UKIP, and probably wouldn't have voted for them in vast numbers to empty their bins (they may well have got a few 100 councillors but not swept the board).
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1133307353716199424
>
> This Rory Stewart fella is really doing it for me. It's so refreshing to see his calm monologues after all the angry bluster of recent times. It's actually starting to get me thinking about how politics could be improved.
>
> A world away from pugnacious politicians like Farage and Johnson. I sincerely wish him well.
Didn't Rory The Tory do something similar to get elected in the first place. Basically wandering around Cumbria on foot, talking to folk....which in itself was a spin on his excellent book of his travels across Afghanistan.
> Its certainly novel but also rather bizarre?
He's Etonian and, in some people's estimation, rather quirky looking. Neither precludes him from winning with the Tory list but I can't see him winning an election. Mind you, that's probably true of the lot of them.
On a separate note, does anyone else find Henry Newman a most smarmy oleaginous figure?
Whoever wins the Tory leadership, assuming they will also be PM may be the most poisoned chalice in history.
> So, before we all pile in to free money on the Brexit Party, what are the circumstances which sees them losing?
>
> Absolutely nobody, including the Liberals themselves, expected to win a seat in a by election caused by an IRA murder.
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Eastbourne_by-election
>
> You never know with by elections. There are no rules.
>
> Ann Widdecombe called the result a victory for the IRA.
And now she's an mep for a party that also includes Claire Fox. Funny old world.
> So, before we all pile in to free money on the Brexit Party, what are the circumstances which sees them losing?
>
> Absolutely nobody, including the Liberals themselves, expected to win a seat in a by election caused by an IRA murder.
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Eastbourne_by-election
>
> You never know with by elections. There are no rules.
>
> Ann Widdecombe called the result a victory for the IRA.
And now she sits in the European Parliament alongside an IRA supporter.
> FPT I said this would happen:
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1133158165799931904
>
>
>
> The last time a UK parliamentary party deliberately let in an extreme candidate to give the membership "a real choice", he won,brought in many from the fringes and reshaped the party in his own image.
> There are three paths for the Tories:
>
> - Go for No Deal and face infiltration by Brexit Party activists intent on stopping any softening of the policy, then reshaping the Tories into a national populist party from the top and the bottom Momentum style.
> - Get an extension in order to renegotiate, and face electoral obliteration when they fail.
> - Elect the most popular moderate with the public (Javid?), take the Deal and exit by the end of the year, then pivot to the centre and throw goodies at the electorate. BXP might win 10 seats but the Tories live to fight another day.
I like this analysis, as it shows that choosing no deal is not simply choosing no deal, it is the surrender of the tory party as a pro business, pro aspiration, broad church party to a much narrower party harking back to the past, that doesnt trust experts, tells business to f off, sneers at people with degrees and has limited ambition.
I do think there are further alternatives in between the 3 options if they can accept further extension, sometimes time does create opportunities.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1133307353716199424
>
> This Rory Stewart fella is really doing it for me. It's so refreshing to see his calm monologues after all the angry bluster of recent times. It's actually starting to get me thinking about how politics could be improved.
>
> A world away from pugnacious politicians like Farage and Johnson. I sincerely wish him well.
I was out for dinner with a good friend who previously stood for Labour at Parliamentary level. I was surprised at her enthusiasm for Stewart but it seemed genuine.
Unfortunately although this slightly eccentric campaign is giving him some media profile he might otherwise struggle to get he is not engaging with the correct electorate. He needs Tory MPs to support him at this stage and he needs them now. I fear he is going to struggle.
> A should-win and a must-win for BXP. LibDems a strong second.
Agree - but if BXP apathy and LD momentum fades could be a Labour hold.
> > It's the Guido lot, isn't it? Johnson has always been close to them. Like him, Paul Staines is a race-baiting, lying, hypocrite - so it's a perfect fit.
>
> It is the Guido lot. One of the most divisive forces in the country today.
> Named after a terrorist, interestingly.
I'm glad you said that. I used to like Guido but he has descended into a thoroughly nasty piece of work.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1133307353716199424
>
> Alternatively it comes across a man going to odd places (e.g. Costa coffee in Barking or public parks), advertising his availability on twitter for a hook up and then engaging with any old stranger who happens to turn up to discuss 'politics'.
>
> Its certainly novel but also rather bizarre?
Is this not the Beto ORourke strategy, but as you say a bit bizarre and taken to extremes?
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1133307353716199424
> >
> > This Rory Stewart fella is really doing it for me. It's so refreshing to see his calm monologues after all the angry bluster of recent times. It's actually starting to get me thinking about how politics could be improved.
> >
> > A world away from pugnacious politicians like Farage and Johnson. I sincerely wish him well.
>
> I was out for dinner with a good friend who previously stood for Labour at Parliamentary level. I was surprised at her enthusiasm for Stewart but it seemed genuine.
>
> Unfortunately although these slightly eccentric campaign is giving him some media profile he might otherwise struggle to get he is not engaging with the correct electorate. He needs Tory MPs to support him at this stage and he needs them now. I fear he is going to struggle.
Only if he's aiming to win this election - I suspect his aim is further down the line..
> > @brendan16 said:
>
> > Its certainly novel but also rather bizarre?
>
> He's Etonian and, in some people's estimation, rather quirky looking. Neither precludes him from winning with the Tory list but I can't see him winning an election. Mind you, that's probably true of the lot of them.
>
> On a separate note, does anyone else find Henry Newman a most smarmy oleaginous figure?
Aren't you confusing him with the person he was sitting next to on the Sky election results show - Alastair Campbell.
Henry is what one might call posh male totty.
He did of course back May's deal and did used to work for Michael Gove.
> > > https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1133307353716199424
I love Kew Gardens but the common people will need £18 a piece for the privilege of meeting Rory there
> A should-win and a must-win for BXP. LibDems a strong second.
>
> What do you make of Lisa Nandy’s comments on a second referendum/no deal? She was your choice to replace Corbyn wasn’t she?
Well this article sets out her view, Labour should redouble its efforts to find a solution. But it does not offer a single word on what such a solution might be. Hand-wringing and a total lack of leadership IMO.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/20/brexit-britain-labour-remain-european-elections-leave-voters
> So, before we all pile in to free money on the Brexit Party, what are the circumstances which sees them losing?
>
> Absolutely nobody, including the Liberals themselves, expected to win a seat in a by election caused by an IRA murder.
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Eastbourne_by-election
>
> You never know with by elections. There are no rules.
>
> Ann Widdecombe called the result a victory for the IRA.
That's the same Ann Widdecombe who wants to hand republicanism the single biggest peacetime propaganda victory they've ever had, a hard-border Brexit.
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @ah009 said:
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1133307353716199424
> > >
> > > This Rory Stewart fella is really doing it for me. It's so refreshing to see his calm monologues after all the angry bluster of recent times. It's actually starting to get me thinking about how politics could be improved.
> > >
> > > A world away from pugnacious politicians like Farage and Johnson. I sincerely wish him well.
> >
> > I was out for dinner with a good friend who previously stood for Labour at Parliamentary level. I was surprised at her enthusiasm for Stewart but it seemed genuine.
> >
> > Unfortunately although these slightly eccentric campaign is giving him some media profile he might otherwise struggle to get he is not engaging with the correct electorate. He needs Tory MPs to support him at this stage and he needs them now. I fear he is going to struggle.
>
> Only if he's aiming to win this election - I suspect his aim is further down the line..
It was utterly ridiculous how many times May omitted to appoint him to the cabinet. I mean, a cabinet containing Grayling, Fox, Leadsom and sundry other idiots and incompetents and there was no room for him? I suspect making sure he is up for a plum job from the new leader is the extent of his ambition this time around and that is perfectly sensible.
Mr. L, that's true, unless he's simply positioning himself for the future.
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @ah009 said:
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1133307353716199424
> > >
> > > This Rory Stewart fella is really doing it for me. It's so refreshing to see his calm monologues after all the angry bluster of recent times. It's actually starting to get me thinking about how politics could be improved.
> > >
> > > A world away from pugnacious politicians like Farage and Johnson. I sincerely wish him well.
> >
> > I was out for dinner with a good friend who previously stood for Labour at Parliamentary level. I was surprised at her enthusiasm for Stewart but it seemed genuine.
> >
> > Unfortunately although these slightly eccentric campaign is giving him some media profile he might otherwise struggle to get he is not engaging with the correct electorate. He needs Tory MPs to support him at this stage and he needs them now. I fear he is going to struggle.
>
> Only if he's aiming to win this election - I suspect his aim is further down the line..
Indeed. He offers them something to return to when obsessive Brexitism meets its inevitable Downfall.
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1133307353716199424
> >
> > This Rory Stewart fella is really doing it for me. It's so refreshing to see his calm monologues after all the angry bluster of recent times. It's actually starting to get me thinking about how politics could be improved.
> >
> > A world away from pugnacious politicians like Farage and Johnson. I sincerely wish him well.
>
> Didn't Rory The Tory do something similar to get elected in the first place. Basically wandering around Cumbria on foot, talking to folk....which in itself was a spin on his excellent book of his travels across Afghanistan.
Having driven the country roads of Cumbria, I know which of the two is more dangerous
> > @ah009 said:
>
> > > It's the Guido lot, isn't it? Johnson has always been close to them. Like him, Paul Staines is a race-baiting, lying, hypocrite - so it's a perfect fit.
> >
> > It is the Guido lot. One of the most divisive forces in the country today.
> > Named after a terrorist, interestingly.
>
> I'm glad you said that. I used to like Guido but he has descended into a thoroughly nasty piece of work.
Yes. When he began he was an interesting site. Genuinely breaking stories and rumours from around the shadier nooks of Westminster. He always had a political slant, but nowt wrong with that.
Now he is a propagandist.
> Aren't you confusing him with the person he was sitting next to on the Sky election results show - Alastair Campbell.
No. Newman was a twat. He was thoroughly patronising about the LibDems, not only calling them 'the Liberals' in a condescending tone, but dismissing the LibDem result as 'entirely to be expected considering it was just a protest vote and that they started from a low base of 1 MEP.'
He's exactly the sort of smarmy posh totty that the old dears adore and which is about to see the extinction of the Conservative party for the next generation.
So, I suppose I should really be grateful.
https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/1133254895707000834?s=21
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> >
> > It's the Guido lot, isn't it? Johnson has always been close to them. Like him, Paul Staines is a race-baiting, lying, hypocrite - so it's a perfect fit.
>
> It is the Guido lot. One of the most divisive forces in the country today.
> Named after a terrorist, interestingly.
Is it? I thought Boris was in bed with Lynton Crosby rather than Guido.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > So, before we all pile in to free money on the Brexit Party, what are the circumstances which sees them losing?
> >
> > Absolutely nobody, including the Liberals themselves, expected to win a seat in a by election caused by an IRA murder.
> >
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Eastbourne_by-election
> >
> > You never know with by elections. There are no rules.
> >
> > Ann Widdecombe called the result a victory for the IRA.
>
> And now she sits in the European Parliament alongside an IRA supporter.
Claire Fox has often been a commentator on News press reviews. She still sounds and looks like a 'leftie' but her actual words nowadays are really very centrist. To me she is a bit of an enigma.
> So, before we all pile in to free money on the Brexit Party, what are the circumstances which sees them losing?
>
> Absolutely nobody, including the Liberals themselves, expected to win a seat in a by election caused by an IRA murder.
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Eastbourne_by-election
>
> You never know with by elections. There are no rules.
>
> Ann Widdecombe called the result a victory for the IRA.
>
> Widdy is two years younger than Joanna Lumley. Makes you think.
Nigel Farage is the same age as Brad Pitt......smoking and drinking ain't good for you kids.
> Indeed, I wonder what the late great Sir Ian Gow would have made of Ann Widdecombe’s disgusting behaviour.
I believe that some of the the elected BP meps will be donating some or all of their salaries to charity, while Widdecomb was on the radio this am vehemently saying she'd be keeping hers.
Principles is a shop from where she got most of her wardrobe for old Widdy, she and Farage deserve each other.
> https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1133316269858525184
Mainly the Tory MPs who are standing against Hunt, presumably.
> > @isam said:
>
> > A should-win and a must-win for BXP. LibDems a strong second.
>
> >
>
> > What do you make of Lisa Nandy’s comments on a second referendum/no deal? She was your choice to replace Corbyn wasn’t she?
>
>
>
> Well this article sets out her view, Labour should redouble its efforts to find a solution. But it does not offer a single word on what such a solution might be. Hand-wringing and a total lack of leadership IMO.
>
>
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/20/brexit-britain-labour-remain-european-elections-leave-voters
>
> This is what she said today
>
> https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/1133254895707000834
> @isam said:
> > @isam said:
>
> > A should-win and a must-win for BXP. LibDems a strong second.
>
> >
>
> > What do you make of Lisa Nandy’s comments on a second referendum/no deal? She was your choice to replace Corbyn wasn’t she?
>
>
>
> Well this article sets out her view, Labour should redouble its efforts to find a solution. But it does not offer a single word on what such a solution might be. Hand-wringing and a total lack of leadership IMO.
>
>
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/20/brexit-britain-labour-remain-european-elections-leave-voters
>
> This is what she said today
>
> https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/1133254895707000834
Brexit is a f**** you viewpoint. As things have got more polarised it's hardly surprising that those who voted leave still want leave.
> > @brendan16 said:
>
> > Aren't you confusing him with the person he was sitting next to on the Sky election results show - Alastair Campbell.
>
> No. Newman was a twat. He was thoroughly patronising about the LibDems, not only calling them 'the Liberals' in a condescending tone, but dismissing the LibDem result as 'entirely to be expected considering it was just a protest vote and that they started from a low base of 1 MEP.'
>
> He's exactly the sort of smarmy posh totty that the old dears adore and which is about to see the extinction of the Conservative party for the next generation.
>
> So, I suppose I should really be grateful.
As opposed to downplaying the Brexit party win 'cos they just got all the old UKIP votes'. It must have been quite a shock watching Sky to see someone downplaying the party which came second and arguing that the party which came first had actually won the election.
The Labour party came second at the last election and saw a big rise in seats and votes - that doesn't mean they won it?
> > @isam said:
>
> > A should-win and a must-win for BXP. LibDems a strong second.
>
> >
>
> > What do you make of Lisa Nandy’s comments on a second referendum/no deal? She was your choice to replace Corbyn wasn’t she?
>
>
>
> Well this article sets out her view, Labour should redouble its efforts to find a solution. But it does not offer a single word on what such a solution might be. Hand-wringing and a total lack of leadership IMO.
>
>
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/20/brexit-britain-labour-remain-european-elections-leave-voters
>
> This is what she said today
>
> https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/1133254895707000834
Nandy is merely moaning, she is not offering anything positive. Everyone knows the debate is becoming polarised, what are her ideas on how Labour should bridge the divide?
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1133317996959686656
I feel the need to do that again.
> This is what she said today
>
> https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/1133254895707000834
>
>
>
> So she has lost her seat anyway, and Labour should pivot to try and reclaim some of their suburban vote...
Nandy has a 16k majority so if she loses her seat Labour are up the creek...
https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1133295790120734721
Labour are also in deep doggy-do with Corbyn. If he stays, they will tank at the election.
So what is quite tragi-amusing to observe is the demise of the old two parties. We do have a new two party country. They're called the Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats.
> > @isam said:
>
> > A should-win and a must-win for BXP. LibDems a strong second.
>
> >
>
> > What do you make of Lisa Nandy’s comments on a second referendum/no deal? She was your choice to replace Corbyn wasn’t she?
>
>
>
> Well this article sets out her view, Labour should redouble its efforts to find a solution. But it does not offer a single word on what such a solution might be. Hand-wringing and a total lack of leadership IMO.
>
>
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/20/brexit-britain-labour-remain-european-elections-leave-voters
>
> This is what she said today
>
> https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/1133254895707000834
When May effectively offered the Labour deal through parliament what should have happened is May had lined up a series of influential MPs to back it in advance. If it had a joint press conference with May, Nandy, perhaps Stewart and Whittingdale from the Tories, it could have worked.
Yes Nandy and Whittingdale would have been reluctant backers at best, but MPs like them were needed to stop it getting trashed instantaneously.
I think hardline leavers underestimate the difficulty the ERG line of trashing May and the deal at every opportunity has had and does have on the prospects of getting any Labour MPs to support any Tory led Brexit. It is this miscalculation, as much as the ERG voting against it, that has killed of Brexit in this parliament.
Someone down thread suggested we should have had a preliminary round ... Leave vs Remain. That was a good idea, and it's exactly what we did do. If Leave won, we should then have had a run-off between what sort of Leave. As it happens, that would have been between the EU negotiated deal (the WA) and Leave without a deal.
If Remain had won, we could have had a run-off between staying as we are with no further integration against staying in the mainstream.
The problem was made when we were forced to allow the spoiled children (AKA the MPs) to interfere. That brings in party politics and guarantees deadlock.
A further referendum with Remain resurrected will leave a permanent running sore. You cannot have a vote which you pledge to honour, yet you discard it because it's inconvenient and you don't like the result.
You can whinge about democracy and claim you have the moral high ground, but many will continue to say … "You have no clothes."
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1133307353716199424
>
> Alternatively it comes across a man going to odd places (e.g. Costa coffee in Barking or public parks), advertising his availability on twitter for a hook up and then engaging with any old stranger who happens to turn up to discuss 'politics'.
>
> Its certainly novel but also rather bizarre?
It's really interesting - because it is the marrying of traditional "out and about in the constituency" politicking with social media video content. It is essentially the evolution of John Major's 1992 soapbox, and provides interesting content for the rest of the media, for minimal effort.
Whether it is effective with the electorate in this particular contest is another matter.
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
>
> > > > https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1133307353716199424
>
> I love Kew Gardens but the common people will need £18 a piece for the privilege of meeting Rory there
Or they can wait a day or two when he's somewhere else.
The SDP could have been on for a four-figure vote as they and Patrick O'Flynn have been campaigning long and hard there, including on a Brexit ticket, but the Brexit Party has probably killed that.
> Only if he's aiming to win this election - I suspect his aim is further down the line..
I say this much more in hope than as a prediction, but it could be that the next Conservative PM is the last.
1. Rather unusually, it looks to me as though all the main possible contenders have chosen strong candidates. Mike Greene for the BXP is a local businessman with strong roots in Peterborough, and seems pretty credible as a candidate even if he did falter in an interview on policy:
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/brexit-party-peterborough-candidate-mike-greene-interview-1-6048868
Paul Bristow for the Conservatives also has good local roots and has been campaigning for a while on local issues. He's a Leaver but seems sane enough. Labour has selected Lisa Forbes who again has good local roots and who was their candidate in 2015. She seems to be campaigning on issues other than Brexit,
2. One possible slight curveball in this is that Patrick O'Flynn is standing for the SDP. As a prominent former UKIP figure he might pick up some of the BXP's support; his pitch to differentiate himself from the BXP is that he wants Brexit but doesn't want their Thatcherite economics:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48384070
3. I don't think that Labour will be punished by voters for the odious behaviour of Fiona Onasanya. As a general rule, voters don't blame successor candidates.
4. Of course the BXP has a big disadvantage in having no local organisation and zero (official!) canvassing data. However, they can probably compensate for that by flooding the constituency with volunteers from elsewhere, and with guidance from experienced Tory defectors who know the constituency.
5. The Greens and LibDems are not going to do well here but between them will probably take chunk out of Labour's potential vote.
Overall, it looks like a Brexit Party win to me, but the current odds aren't compelling.
> Some thoughts on Peterborough:
>
> 1. Rather unusually, it looks to me as though all the main possible contenders have chosen strong candidates. Mike Greene for the BXP is a local businessman with strong roots in Peterborough, and seems pretty credible as a candidate even if he did falter in an interview on policy:
>
> https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/brexit-party-peterborough-candidate-mike-greene-interview-1-6048868
>
> Paul Bristow for the Conservatives also has good local roots and has been campaigning for a while on local issues. He's a Leaver but seems sane enough. Labour has selected Lisa Forbes who again has good local roots and who was their candidate in 2015. She seems to be campaigning on issues other than Brexit,
>
> 2. One possible slight curveball in this is that Patrick O'Flynn is standing for the SDP. As a prominent former UKIP figure he might pick up some of the BXP's support; his pitch to differentiate himself from the BXP is that he wants Brexit but doesn't want their Thatcherite economics:
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48384070
>
> 3. I don't think that Labour will be punished by voters for the odious behaviour of Fiona Onasanya. As a general rule, voters don't blame successor candidates.
>
> 4. Of course the BXP has a big disadvantage in having no local organisation and zero (official!) canvassing data. However, they can probably compensate for that by flooding the constituency with volunteers from elsewhere, and with guidance from experienced Tory defectors who know the constituency.
>
> 5. The Greens and LibDems are not going to do well here but between them will probably take chunk out of Labour's potential vote.
>
> Overall, it looks like a Brexit Party win to me, but the current odds aren't compelling.
>
I suspect the BXP might be able to access some canvassing data, maybe, somehow...