> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > > > > The Tories have little choice but to back hard Brexit now, they will never win power as remainers, most likely they would disappear within 10 to 15 years. Their only hope is swallowing Farages party before it swallows them. Labour are now finished regardless, a new centre alliance that can distance itself from the stench of sandal is needed. > > > > Or, those Tories who can live with hard Brexit, probably 200, pull away and team up with Farage and win an enormous landslide. > > > > Grim > > > --------- > > > > > > As a hard Brexit party, the Tories would lose their core seats in the London commuter belt, but their brand is too toxic to win in the places that a hard Brexit message would appeal to. > > > > Then they are done. Like Labour. It's a Farage versus the centre alliance world with Scotland shearing off > > If Scotland shears off its easier for the Tories to win a majority of course. > > Let's not forget that the Tories won a healthy majority of English seats last time.
And got 9% in the Euros failing to win a single council area afaik. They have demonstrated the reality of a world without them in any significant number
> @Dadge said: > Congrats to YouGov and Ipsos-Mori on their polls. The fact that TBP underperformed - ie. came up a few % short of their predictions - is good news for most of us, since it shows (I think) that there's a chunk of Brexiters who don't like voting. Did BXP underperform?
All but three pollsters had BXPs actual outcome as within their margin of error. Only in 2 did BXP get less than the margin of error of what was polled, while they got more than margin of error on one.
> @Chris said: > > @FF43 said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > . > > The people in the middle actually hold the keys to it. I remain convinced that a soft Brexit that is largely symbolic would command majority support in the country. Unfortunately, there is no way to get to that position. > > > > --------------- > > > > Problem is, that "largely symbolic" Brexit requires the UK to substantially outsource its economic and trade policy to a party it's not a member of. That's a problem if you voted Leave to take control or Remain to be at the heart of Europe and the international system. > > > > Having said that, I still think symbolism is the most likely eventual outcome. It will come at a very high price. > > Of course the rational solution is to opt out of the political structures while remaining in the trading structures. > > It's a measure of how dysfunctional our politics are that this is so hard to achieve - even though the failure to achieve it looks as though it may be fatal to one or both of the parties that currently dominate parliament.
---------
The political structures are the ones that decide the trading ones. Opting out of the political structures in practice means not showing up to the meetings that decide the things that matter to us. Of course they are hardly going to take our interest into account. It has practical implications as well as incurring a democratic deficit.
I don't dismiss this however, as I think this is most likely where we will end up eventually.
> @rottenborough said: > Heart of stone etc..... > > Humiliated Tommy Robinson demands second vote after losing £5k deposit > > > > Indeed they have Tommy, indeed the have.
I know that Tommy Robinson is not consistent about anything, but he cannot now sensibly argue against a second Brexit referendum!
> > > > If Tory MPs and Members vote for a PM who is genuinely prepared to accept No Deal (as they should) then the HoC can't stop it short of voting for a GE by a VONC and possible unemployment. For the likes of Grieve etc who might be considering it they'd be voting for guaranteed unemployment.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve.
> >
> >
> >
> > You say that a No Deal Brexit currently enjoys minority support in the country, but that's moot. All positions currently enjoy minority support in the country.
> >
> >
> >
> > It falls upon the government to govern and pick a choice from the available minority positions then make the best of it.
> >
> > The only definite majority there has been since 2016 is to Leave.
>
> And we shall never be allowed to vote to find another majority!
There was a General Election in 2017 contested by parties wanting a second referendum. They lost.
There's another General Election due no later than 2022. If a party wanting another referendum wins that they can hold one.
In 2017 the rational conclusion to draw was that the majority supported Brexit and there was no way to stop it. So I voted for the party that was likely to implement a softer Brexit. Now that Brexit looks highly stoppable switching to one of the remain parties not only made sense, it felt like a patriotic duty.
> @dyedwoolie said: > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > > > > > > The Tories have little choice but to back hard Brexit now, they will never win power as remainers, most likely they would disappear within 10 to 15 years. Their only hope is swallowing Farages party before it swallows them. Labour are now finished regardless, a new centre alliance that can distance itself from the stench of sandal is needed. > > > > > Or, those Tories who can live with hard Brexit, probably 200, pull away and team up with Farage and win an enormous landslide. > > > > > Grim > > > > --------- > > > > > > > > As a hard Brexit party, the Tories would lose their core seats in the London commuter belt, but their brand is too toxic to win in the places that a hard Brexit message would appeal to. > > > > > > Then they are done. Like Labour. It's a Farage versus the centre alliance world with Scotland shearing off > > > > If Scotland shears off its easier for the Tories to win a majority of course. > > > > Let's not forget that the Tories won a healthy majority of English seats last time. > > And got 9% in the Euros failing to win a single council area afaik. They have demonstrated the reality of a world without them in any significant number
Because many of their voters went on strike in disgust at May. I did. I wasn't going to vote for May's Tories in the Euros. I hope and expect to vote for the Tories next time.
I bet there were a great many Tory party members who quietly voted BXP and are now looking forward to casting a vote in the members stage of the forthcoming leadership contest.
Maybe Jo Swinson can work something out with Caroline Lucas. Change UK's best option is being allowed to sit as LDs under the same kind of Co-op Labour model. Some sort of Remain alliance in any snap election seems more plausible now with both Greens and LDs doing better, they have both so much more to gain from cooperation.
> @Dadge said: > Congrats to YouGov and Ipsos-Mori on their polls. The fact that TBP underperformed - ie. came up a few % short of their predictions - is good news for most of us, since it shows (I think) that there's a chunk of Brexiters who don't like voting.
Or that there's a chunk of Brexiteers packing the opinion poll panels.
> @eristdoof said: > > @rottenborough said: > > Heart of stone etc..... > > > > Humiliated Tommy Robinson demands second vote after losing £5k deposit > > > > > > > > Indeed they have Tommy, indeed the have. > > I know that Tommy Robinson is not consistent about anything, but he cannot now sensibly argue against a second Brexit referendum! >
'Tommy' of course lost his crowdfunders deposit, not his own cash. The twat.
> @Dadge said: > Congrats to YouGov and Ipsos-Mori on their polls. The fact that TBP underperformed - ie. came up a few % short of their predictions - is good news for most of us, since it shows (I think) that there's a chunk of Brexiters who don't like voting.
There is a chunk of Brexiteers who traditionally voted Labour but who don't like voting when the only way of expressing their support for an unequivocal Brexit is to vote for a party of the right.
> @Recidivist said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > @isam said: > > > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > > > > > > > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > > > > > > > > > You have it backwards. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If Tory MPs and Members vote for a PM who is genuinely prepared to accept No Deal (as they should) then the HoC can't stop it short of voting for a GE by a VONC and possible unemployment. For the likes of Grieve etc who might be considering it they'd be voting for guaranteed unemployment. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > You say that a No Deal Brexit currently enjoys minority support in the country, but that's moot. All positions currently enjoy minority support in the country. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It falls upon the government to govern and pick a choice from the available minority positions then make the best of it. > > > > > > > > The only definite majority there has been since 2016 is to Leave. > > > > > > And we shall never be allowed to vote to find another majority! > > > > There was a General Election in 2017 contested by parties wanting a second referendum. They lost. > > > > There's another General Election due no later than 2022. If a party wanting another referendum wins that they can hold one. > > In 2017 the rational conclusion to draw was that the majority supported Brexit and there was no way to stop it. So I voted for the party that was likely to implement a softer Brexit. Now that Brexit looks highly stoppable switching to one of the remain parties not only made sense, it felt like a patriotic duty.
In that election the only party supporting a no deal Brexit got 1.8%. They lost. If they win an election they can conduct a no deal Brexit.
We can go round in circles citing our little pockets of data. The other side will not give way and neither side has the support to change it.
I am not particularly in favour of a second referendum although one may end up being necessary, I am merely pointing out the absurdity of saying the only majority that we have is from 2016 at the same time as refusing any new votes to find out the current views. Of course the only majority is from the last binary vote.
> @Barnesian said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @dixiedean said: > > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > For more than a decade now the risk that the Conservatives and Labour have had to manage has been that they will lose Eurosceptic/Leave voters to Farage's outfit. Now, for the first time, we can see that Europhile/Remain voters have been prepared to change their vote away from the big two to support other parties. > > > > > > > > That changes the balance of risks and shifts the centre of debate in a big way. The overall balance for Leave/Remain might be little changed, but the political consequences for positioning are now different. > > > > > > > > That's the biggest thing this election has changed. > > > > > > Indeed. Remainers are the insurgents now. > > > > Who are the personalities to take the LDs forward now? It is just Swinson and Moran? Their lack of MPs and senior MPs in particular will be big problem for them to take over the centre ground and manage a GE campaign. Farron and Cable are not the answer, Lamb is not bad, the rest are non descript. Are the likes of Hughes and Laws still involved? > > ************************************************************************************* > > The LibDems could do with Heidi, Anna and Sarah.
Indeed. I do think the idea of their new centre movement is actually a good one, but it is scuppered by FPTP. Hearing Rachel Johnson being interviewed last night, I'm sure that quite a few in ChUK are discussing whether to jump ship. They'd love to just have a pact instead, but the LibDems have almost nothing to gain from one. (The only pact that's possible is a left-of-centre one in the event that it looked like the Farageists might win a GE.)
The trouble is now that they've gone to all the trouble of starting the party, it's hard to jump ship, but Heidi and Sarah could well do it, especially if (?) Layla is making overtures.
> @Paristonda said: > Maybe Jo Swinson can work something out with Caroline Lucas. Change UK's best option is being allowed to sit as LDs under the same kind of Co-op Labour model. Some sort of Remain alliance in any snap election seems more plausible now with both Greens and LDs doing better, they have both so much more to gain from cooperation.
Change got 3.5%, servitude to the LD model would betray the half a million who voted for them. Minor partner in an alliance would be more appropriate - stand aside in the bulk of seats in return for a free run in 40 or 50, areas where the Lib Dems are dirt plus the seats of the current MPs. Or convince the LDs to rebrand and claim a merger when in reality it's a takeover but with the bonus of new branding.
> @eristdoof said: > > @Dadge said: > > Congrats to YouGov and Ipsos-Mori on their polls. The fact that TBP underperformed - ie. came up a few % short of their predictions - is good news for most of us, since it shows (I think) that there's a chunk of Brexiters who don't like voting. > > Or that there's a chunk of Brexiteers packing the opinion poll panels.
Given we spent the weekend looking at turn-out patterns, it's pretty safe to say that brexit voters (marginally) sat this one out more than remain.
Why a remain voter should find the cheering, looking ahead to votes which may matter, I'm not clear about.
Would be very amusing if we got a PR result in 2022 on FPTP terms Lab 180 Tory 180 Lib dem 100 Brexit 100 Snats 50 Etc A Corbyn Swinson Sturgeon government with a tiny majority. Lolz
Anyone know why the Lib Dem Vote % on BF still has liquidity at not 1.01? Someone is laying money at 1.05-1.16 that they'll get under 20%. Is that not certain at this point?
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @Barnesian said: > > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would. > > > > > > > > Tiny handful maybe enough > > > > > > VONC isn't enough to stop Brexit though. It has to be done in time to hold the election and a new government prevents Brexit. Plus there's no guarantee under FPTP that Brexit supporters won't win the election. > > > > > > If the election is between a hard Brexiteer leading the Tories, Corbyn still prevaricating and the Lib Dems etc there's every chance the Tories could win the election just as the BXP won last week's election. > > ************************************************************************************* > > > > After a VONC, there are 14 days to find a PM who commands the confidence of the house in a vote of confidence. There may be sufficient MPs to give that confidence to someone who will ask the EU for an extension (which they will get in the circumstances) and then resign for a GE. The extension may be for four years of course. "Here you are. Don't come back bothering us until you've sorted yourself out". > > Corbyn won't give confidence to anyone else and Corbyn won't resign if he gets in power. ********************************************************************************
> @Barnesian said: > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > Corbyn won't give confidence to anyone else and Corbyn won't resign if he gets in power. > ******************************************************************************** > > He might not be leader by October.
Maybe Jo Swinson can work something out with Caroline Lucas. Change UK's best option is being allowed to sit as LDs under the same kind of Co-op Labour model. Some sort of Remain alliance in any snap election seems more plausible now with both Greens and LDs doing better, they have both so much more to gain from cooperation.
I think come the GE - if it does come - Labour will pivot to Ref2 and Remain.
Which if it works will spike the LD and Green revival.
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @Barnesian said: > > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would. > > > > > > > > Tiny handful maybe enough > > > > > > VONC isn't enough to stop Brexit though. It has to be done in time to hold the election and a new government prevents Brexit. Plus there's no guarantee under FPTP that Brexit supporters won't win the election. > > > > > > If the election is between a hard Brexiteer leading the Tories, Corbyn still prevaricating and the Lib Dems etc there's every chance the Tories could win the election just as the BXP won last week's election. > > ************************************************************************************* > > > > After a VONC, there are 14 days to find a PM who commands the confidence of the house in a vote of confidence. There may be sufficient MPs to give that confidence to someone who will ask the EU for an extension (which they will get in the circumstances) and then resign for a GE. The extension may be for four years of course. "Here you are. Don't come back bothering us until you've sorted yourself out". > > Corbyn won't give confidence to anyone else and Corbyn won't resign if he gets in power.
Scenario: It's 20th October 2019. 3 Days ago the HoC voted no confidence in Her Majesty's prime minister because he's just sitting on his hands waiting for Halloween The VoNC was carried by 15 Votes. Now that the country really is in crisis 50 plus Conservatives (including Mrs May), most Labour Party MPs and all minor parties have agreed to send Ken Clarke to the Queen to form an emergency government on the grounds of preventing No Deal Brexit and holding GE in November.
Are you really claiming that Corbyn would not support this emergency government, when he is so close the the GE that he believes he can win??
> @kinabalu said: > Maybe Jo Swinson can work something out with Caroline Lucas. Change UK's best option is being allowed to sit as LDs under the same kind of Co-op Labour model. Some sort of Remain alliance in any snap election seems more plausible now with both Greens and LDs doing better, they have both so much more to gain from cooperation. > > I think come the GE - if it does come - Labour will pivot to Ref2 and Remain. > > Which if it works will spike the LD and Green revival.
Nah, Corbyn will still be calling for a GE in the GE campaign
> @kinabalu said: > Maybe Jo Swinson can work something out with Caroline Lucas. Change UK's best option is being allowed to sit as LDs under the same kind of Co-op Labour model. Some sort of Remain alliance in any snap election seems more plausible now with both Greens and LDs doing better, they have both so much more to gain from cooperation. > > I think come the GE - if it does come - Labour will pivot to Ref2 and Remain. > > Which if it works will spike the LD and Green revival.
Given a large proportion of the Green vote uptick seems to have come from socialist remainers, I'm not sure a GE pact would command wide support.
> @eristdoof said: > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > > @Barnesian said: > > > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would. > > > > > > > > > > Tiny handful maybe enough > > > > > > > > VONC isn't enough to stop Brexit though. It has to be done in time to hold the election and a new government prevents Brexit. Plus there's no guarantee under FPTP that Brexit supporters won't win the election. > > > > > > > > If the election is between a hard Brexiteer leading the Tories, Corbyn still prevaricating and the Lib Dems etc there's every chance the Tories could win the election just as the BXP won last week's election. > > > ************************************************************************************* > > > > > > After a VONC, there are 14 days to find a PM who commands the confidence of the house in a vote of confidence. There may be sufficient MPs to give that confidence to someone who will ask the EU for an extension (which they will get in the circumstances) and then resign for a GE. The extension may be for four years of course. "Here you are. Don't come back bothering us until you've sorted yourself out". > > > > Corbyn won't give confidence to anyone else and Corbyn won't resign if he gets in power. > > Scenario: It's 20th October 2019. 3 Days ago the HoC voted no confidence in Her Majesty's prime minister because he's just sitting on his hands waiting for Halloween The VoNC was carried by 15 Votes. Now that the country really is in crisis 50 plus Conservatives (including Mrs May), most Labour Party MPs and all minor parties have agreed to send Ken Clarke to the Queen to form an emergency government on the grounds of preventing No Deal Brexit and holding GE in November. > > Are you really claiming that Corbyn would not support this emergency government, when he is so close the the GE that he believes he can win??
Bizarrely if Corbyn did block unity and go for a no deal GE, and Labour won the GE he would probably face an immediate coup from the Labour PLP for the brexit debacle and still would not end up PM!
> @Quincel said: > Anyone know why the Lib Dem Vote % on BF still has liquidity at not 1.01? Someone is laying money at 1.05-1.16 that they'll get under 20%. Is that not certain at this point?
Northern Ireland turnout to be added still . Obviously zero per cent for LD party there so very slight chance (if t/o very high in NI) to knock it out of the 20% band
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @Barnesian said: > > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > > Corbyn won't give confidence to anyone else and Corbyn won't resign if he gets in power. > > ******************************************************************************** > > > > He might not be leader by October. > > ********* > > I won't hold my breath over that.
About 2/1 against on BetFair but there is a credible scenario developing today.
> @Benpointer said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1132976778845347841 > > > > > > > > Theresa May can be criticised for many things but she tried her utmost to deliver a meaningful Brexit. > > > > In the context of those tweets, what matters is whether the Brexit is seen to be meaningful by the 52%. > > Grrrr! How on earth do you know what is seen as meaningful by 'the 52%'? > > Let me answer for you: you don't. You just assume that every one of them has exactly the same view of Brexit as you.
The Tory manifesto promised a Brexit that would unite the country and deliver prosperity. There were no downsides.
Ok ..... like Boris in a thong I'm going to let it hang it all there .....
******** GENERAL ELECTION ALERT Thursday 21st November *******
Calendar :
September 26th - Dominic Rabb elected leader of the Conservative Party defeating Michael Gove by 61-39%
September 27th - Dominic Rabb attends the Queen and is appointed Prime Minister.
October 2nd - At the Conservative party conference PM Rabb reaffirms that the UK will leave the EU on October 29th on No Deal WTO terms.
October 3rd - The pound falls to £1 - $1.11 and £1 - Euro 1.01
October 4th - Eight Conservative MP's resign the whip to sit as independents.
October 15th - House of Commons returns. Labour immediately places VONC in the government.
October 17th - VONC debate - As five of the new former Conservative independents vote with the opposition and three abstain the government loses the VONC by 4 votes - 319-315.
October 18th - The House of Commons vote by a overwhelming majority to dissolve parliament by 613 to 13.
October 21st - The EU agree a six month extension.
October 28th - Parliament dissolved.
November 21st - Polling day.
November 22nd - HM Queen asks ..... Mike Smithson for a few betting tips and requests OGH to send in the new Prime Minister as they cross in the ante-room ....
> @Tabman said: > > @kinabalu said: > > Maybe Jo Swinson can work something out with Caroline Lucas. Change UK's best option is being allowed to sit as LDs under the same kind of Co-op Labour model. Some sort of Remain alliance in any snap election seems more plausible now with both Greens and LDs doing better, they have both so much more to gain from cooperation. > > > > I think come the GE - if it does come - Labour will pivot to Ref2 and Remain. > > > > Which if it works will spike the LD and Green revival. > > Given a large proportion of the Green vote uptick seems to have come from socialist remainers, I'm not sure a GE pact would command wide support.
I voted green this time and am definitely not a socialist. Socialists are probably sticking with Corbyn as the EU is not a big priority for them, indeed sometimes a hindrance.
> @state_go_away said: > > @Quincel said: > > Anyone know why the Lib Dem Vote % on BF still has liquidity at not 1.01? Someone is laying money at 1.05-1.16 that they'll get under 20%. Is that not certain at this point? > > Northern Ireland turnout to be added still . Obviously zero per cent for LD party there so very slight chance (if t/o very high in NI) to knock it out of the 20% band
On the contrary, my question is why anything thinks Northern Ireland won't knock it out of the band. The Lib Dems are on 20.3% in GB, in 2014 NI knocked almost 1% off the vote totals of parties in that range. Unless turnout in NI is under half of what it was last time then we know the LDs are under 20% overall - and yet someone is still willing to offer bets.
> @state_go_away said: > > @Quincel said: > > Anyone know why the Lib Dem Vote % on BF still has liquidity at not 1.01? Someone is laying money at 1.05-1.16 that they'll get under 20%. Is that not certain at this point? > > Northern Ireland turnout to be added still . Obviously zero per cent for LD party there so very slight chance (if t/o very high in NI) to knock it out of the 20% band
Isn't the Alliance the LD's sister party in Northern Ireland?
> @kinabalu said: > Maybe Jo Swinson can work something out with Caroline Lucas. Change UK's best option is being allowed to sit as LDs under the same kind of Co-op Labour model. Some sort of Remain alliance in any snap election seems more plausible now with both Greens and LDs doing better, they have both so much more to gain from cooperation. > > I think come the GE - if it does come - Labour will pivot to Ref2 and Remain. > > Which if it works will spike the LD and Green revival.
If Labour puts a Referendum in a GE manifesto, the party does not need to advocate Remain. If they win the election they could then hold a referendum where Leave means a Corbyn Brexit (WA+CU) against Remain=No Brexit.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @state_go_away said: > > > @Quincel said: > > > Anyone know why the Lib Dem Vote % on BF still has liquidity at not 1.01? Someone is laying money at 1.05-1.16 that they'll get under 20%. Is that not certain at this point? > > > > Northern Ireland turnout to be added still . Obviously zero per cent for LD party there so very slight chance (if t/o very high in NI) to knock it out of the 20% band > > Isn't the Alliance the LD's sister party in Northern Ireland?
> @Quincel said: > > @state_go_away said: > > > @Quincel said: > > > Anyone know why the Lib Dem Vote % on BF still has liquidity at not 1.01? Someone is laying money at 1.05-1.16 that they'll get under 20%. Is that not certain at this point? > > > > Northern Ireland turnout to be added still . Obviously zero per cent for LD party there so very slight chance (if t/o very high in NI) to knock it out of the 20% band > > On the contrary, my question is why anything thinks Northern Ireland won't knock it out of the band. The Lib Dems are on 20.3% in GB, in 2014 NI knocked almost 1% off the vote totals of parties in that range. Unless turnout in NI is under half of what it was last time then we know the LDs are under 20% overall - and yet someone is still willing to offer bets.
> @Quincel said: > > @state_go_away said: > > > @Quincel said: > > > Anyone know why the Lib Dem Vote % on BF still has liquidity at not 1.01? Someone is laying money at 1.05-1.16 that they'll get under 20%. Is that not certain at this point? > > > > Northern Ireland turnout to be added still . Obviously zero per cent for LD party there so very slight chance (if t/o very high in NI) to knock it out of the 20% band > > On the contrary, my question is why anything thinks Northern Ireland won't knock it out of the band. The Lib Dems are on 20.3% in GB, in 2014 NI knocked almost 1% off the vote totals of parties in that range. Unless turnout in NI is under half of what it was last time then we know the LDs are under 20% overall - and yet someone is still willing to offer bets.
Again - the percentage knocked off for NI isn't a constant, but proportional to the GB percentage. But yes, if the Lib Dems or on 20.3% in GB, NI will knock them down to under 20%.
> @state_go_away said: > > @Quincel said: > > > @state_go_away said: > > > > @Quincel said: > > > > Anyone know why the Lib Dem Vote % on BF still has liquidity at not 1.01? Someone is laying money at 1.05-1.16 that they'll get under 20%. Is that not certain at this point? > > > > > > Northern Ireland turnout to be added still . Obviously zero per cent for LD party there so very slight chance (if t/o very high in NI) to knock it out of the 20% band > > > > On the contrary, my question is why anything thinks Northern Ireland won't knock it out of the band. The Lib Dems are on 20.3% in GB, in 2014 NI knocked almost 1% off the vote totals of parties in that range. Unless turnout in NI is under half of what it was last time then we know the LDs are under 20% overall - and yet someone is still willing to offer bets. > > well clean it up then!!
I did that overnight and this morning but I've now gotten to my limit of how much I'll put on even an apparently sure thing (hence why I'm now willing to publicise it here). It's just weird...
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Tabman said: > > > @kinabalu said: > > > Maybe Jo Swinson can work something out with Caroline Lucas. Change UK's best option is being allowed to sit as LDs under the same kind of Co-op Labour model. Some sort of Remain alliance in any snap election seems more plausible now with both Greens and LDs doing better, they have both so much more to gain from cooperation. > > > > > > I think come the GE - if it does come - Labour will pivot to Ref2 and Remain. > > > > > > Which if it works will spike the LD and Green revival. > > > > Given a large proportion of the Green vote uptick seems to have come from socialist remainers, I'm not sure a GE pact would command wide support. > > I voted green this time and am definitely not a socialist. Socialists are probably sticking with Corbyn as the EU is not a big priority for them, indeed sometimes a hindrance.
I was generalising. I think the 2017 Corbyn supporting remainers seems to have split as follows:
- woke young lefties: Green - centrist dads: Lib Dem
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @state_go_away said: > > > @Quincel said: > > > Anyone know why the Lib Dem Vote % on BF still has liquidity at not 1.01? Someone is laying money at 1.05-1.16 that they'll get under 20%. Is that not certain at this point? > > > > Northern Ireland turnout to be added still . Obviously zero per cent for LD party there so very slight chance (if t/o very high in NI) to knock it out of the 20% band > > Isn't the Alliance the LD's sister party in Northern Ireland?
Yeah the rules are clear, LDs only. The exception is the Green vote which includes the Scottish Greens and The Green Party of England and Wales.
> @JackW said: > Ok ..... like Boris in a thong I'm going to let it hang it all there ..... > > ******** GENERAL ELECTION ALERT Thursday 21st November ******* > > Calendar : > > September 26th - Dominic Rabb elected leader of the Conservative Party defeating Michael Gove by 61-39% > > September 27th - Dominic Rabb attends the Queen and is appointed Prime Minister. > > October 2nd - At the Conservative party conference PM Rabb reaffirms that the UK will leave the EU on October 29th on No Deal WTO terms. > > October 3rd - The pound falls to £1 - $1.11 and £1 - Euro 1.01 > > October 4th - Eight Conservative MP's resign the whip to sit as independents. > > October 15th - House of Commons returns. Labour immediately places VONC in the government. > > October 17th - VONC debate - As five of the new former Conservative independents vote with the opposition and three abstain the government loses the VONC by 4 votes - 319-315. > > October 18th - The House of Commons vote by a overwhelming majority to dissolve parliament by 613 to 13. > > October 21st - The EU agree a six month extension. > > October 28th - Parliament dissolved. > > November 21st - Polling day. > > November 22nd - HM Queen asks ..... Mike Smithson for a few betting tips and requests OGH to send in the new Prime Minister as they cross in the ante-room .... > >
Aren't the Tories aiming to have the new leader in place by mid-late July?
Agree we're going to have an autumn election though... Suspect it will be in October rather than November.
He does (29, I think). It's a major achievement and a considerable participation in politics at a European level. Let us see if he can repeat the feat in 2024...
Supposedly there are remainers who accept the vote and think we should leave with a deal (or possibly even no deal). That is certainly true of quite a few MPs.
Does anyone have a feel for what percentage of the population this is and how they voted? I am assuming they would vote Lab or Tory, but what is their percentage?
If there was another referendum how many would revert?
> @viewcode said: > Farage now has as many seats as Merkels CDU\CSU > > He does (29, I think). It's a major achievement and a considerable participation in politics at a European level. Let us see if he can repeat the feat in 2024... > > ...sorry, couldn't resist it.
odds are he will have to.
This has the huge advantage of pissing off Macron who is scheduled to get the same number of seats as LePen if the UK leaves.
October 2nd - At the Conservative party conference PM Rabb reaffirms that the UK will leave the EU on October 29th on No Deal WTO terms. October 3rd - The pound falls to £1 - $1.11 and £1 - Euro 1.01...
O Lord above, here we go again. Do I insure against this event by placing a bet, or by currency exchanging? Thanks to all those who made suggestions last time: this isn't me asking advice, this is me venting...
I thought the 2019 EU elections would be the most divisive campaign in living memory. I was wrong. Remarkably little happened in my area apart from a few leaflets.
However, far worse has been the reaction on social media (particularly twitter). The number of remainers crowing over flawed graphs (e.g including Lab in remain totals, or conveniently ignoring the Tories in pro-Brexit totals) and leavers trolling GIFs of Farage laughing like a leathery clown is sickening.
> @kjh said: > Supposedly there are remainers who accept the vote and think we should leave with a deal (or possibly even no deal). That is certainly true of quite a few MPs. > > Does anyone have a feel for what percentage of the population this is and how they voted? I am assuming they would vote Lab or Tory, but what is their percentage? > > If there was another referendum how many would revert? >
My mother is one. She didn't vote, because much as the second referendum talk aggravated her she couldn't bring herself to vote for Farage.
> The people in the middle actually hold the keys to it. I remain convinced that a soft Brexit that is largely symbolic would command majority support in the country. Unfortunately, there is no way to get to that position.
-----------
There is no "largely symbolic" way to give up our place in the polity of the EU and vacate the institutions. It's binary.
That's clearly a nonsense approach or they would be no one ok with a soft Brexit but not ok with a no deal one.
> @JackW said: > @GIN1138 said: > > "Aren't the Tories aiming to have the new leader in place by mid-late July? > > Agree we're going to have an autumn election though... Suspect it will be in October rather than November." > > ........................................................................................ > > The very earliest viable date, with several rounds of voting and all the hustings, is late August and much more likely well into mid September. > >
That is what David Cameron thought last time and he was gone in three weeks. The process will likely shorten as and when candidates drop out.
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > "Any Other" out from 9.2 a week or so ago.. quite strange given last nights results for the big two. > > > > Presumably that's because the Lib Dems have come in after doing better than expected last night. > > Maybe yeah, although I think the Brexit Party to wins majority has shortened also > Only if you cheat and allocate Tories to No Deal > Last nights vote happening in a GE would mean a parliamentary majority for no deal
> @JackW said: > @GIN1138 said: > > "Aren't the Tories aiming to have the new leader in place by mid-late July? > > Agree we're going to have an autumn election though... Suspect it will be in October rather than November." > > ........................................................................................ > > The very earliest viable date, with several rounds of voting and all the hustings, is late August and much more likely well into mid September. > >
2 votes a week is not remotely set in stone. No good reason this can't be with the members 10 days after close of nominations. Quicker if they really wanted.
I thought the 2019 EU elections would be the most divisive campaign in living memory. I was wrong. Remarkably little happened in my area apart from a few leaflets.
However, far worse has been the reaction on social media (particularly twitter). The number of remainers crowing over flawed graphs (e.g including Lab in remain totals, or conveniently ignoring the Tories in pro-Brexit totals) and leavers trolling GIFs of Farage laughing like a leathery clown is sickening.
New PM is going to have to be a miracle worker.
New PM may be the shortest serving one in history. It just about, as they only have to beat 4 months.
> @FF43 said: > > @Chris said: > > > @FF43 said: > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > . > > > The people in the middle actually hold the keys to it. I remain convinced that a soft Brexit that is largely symbolic would command majority support in the country. Unfortunately, there is no way to get to that position. > > > > > > --------------- > > > > > > Problem is, that "largely symbolic" Brexit requires the UK to substantially outsource its economic and trade policy to a party it's not a member of. That's a problem if you voted Leave to take control or Remain to be at the heart of Europe and the international system. > > > > > > Having said that, I still think symbolism is the most likely eventual outcome. It will come at a very high price. > > > > Of course the rational solution is to opt out of the political structures while remaining in the trading structures. > > > > It's a measure of how dysfunctional our politics are that this is so hard to achieve - even though the failure to achieve it looks as though it may be fatal to one or both of the parties that currently dominate parliament. > > --------- > > The political structures are the ones that decide the trading ones. Opting out of the political structures in practice means not showing up to the meetings that decide the things that matter to us. Of course they are hardly going to take our interest into account. It has practical implications as well as incurring a democratic deficit. > > I don't dismiss this however, as I think this is most likely where we will end up eventually.
Yes, of course it's true that if we opt out of the political structures we'll have minimal influence on the trading structures.
> @kle4 said: > > @JackW said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > > "Aren't the Tories aiming to have the new leader in place by mid-late July? > > > > > > Agree we're going to have an autumn election though... Suspect it will be in October rather than November." > > > > > > ........................................................................................ > > > > > > The very earliest viable date, with several rounds of voting and all the hustings, is late August and much more likely well into mid September. > > > > > > > > > > That is what David Cameron thought last time and he was gone in three weeks. The process will likely shorten as and when candidates drop out. > > Sure but the members will riot if they dont get to vote this time, so it will be a bit longer. > > I wonder how many will write in Farage as a candidate.
I hope they get some tight rules on duration of membership to be eligible to vote, otherwise it is ripe for being subverted. Joining the Tory party would be the easiest way to choose the Prime Minister and stop/force a no deal Brexit.
> @PaulM said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @JackW said: > > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > > > > > > "Aren't the Tories aiming to have the new leader in place by mid-late July? > > > > > > > > > > Agree we're going to have an autumn election though... Suspect it will be in October rather than November." > > > > > > > > > > ........................................................................................ > > > > > > > > > > The very earliest viable date, with several rounds of voting and all the hustings, is late August and much more likely well into mid September. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > That is what David Cameron thought last time and he was gone in three weeks. The process will likely shorten as and when candidates drop out. > > > > Sure but the members will riot if they dont get to vote this time, so it will be a bit longer. > > > > I wonder how many will write in Farage as a candidate. > > I hope they get some tight rules on duration of membership to be eligible to vote, otherwise it is ripe for being subverted. Joining the Tory party would be the easiest way to choose the Prime Minister and stop/force a no deal Brexit.
I'm sure they'll take your money to be a member, but you're 3 months late already if you want a vote.
> > I hope they get some tight rules on duration of membership to be eligible to vote, otherwise it is ripe for being subverted. Joining the Tory party would be the easiest way to choose the Prime Minister and stop/force a no deal Brexit.
Hasn't the Conservative Party just announced 30,000 new members? How did that work out for Labour?
Farage will always be able to tack further to the extreme on Brexit. Far better for him that he causes the tories to lose the election, Labour comes to power and ends up fudging some sort of brexit outcome (second vote, customs union etc). Allows the Brexit Party to try and overtake the defeated Tories in the next election as the only ones who can deliver brexit.
For me the most significant figure from this election was thr Turnout - which came in at just under 37% with more than 63% not being bothered to vote at all. That does not strike me as clear evidence of voters straining at the leash to express their views on Brexit. EU elections have always been treated frivolously - even by many who do vote - and the attempt to translate this data into a GE result is just bonkers or at best naive.Had last Thursday been polling day for a General Election , I have no doubt that both major parties would have exceeded 30% - support for the Brexit Party , the LibDems and the Greens would have been much lower in terms of vote shares.
> Theresa May can be criticised for many things but she tried her utmost to deliver a meaningful Brexit.
>
> Quite. Badly, and she failed, but she tried.
Eddie the Eagle “tried” being a ski jumper. He failed. But it was a great comic act.
No doubt. But plenty of people insist May never even tried, or she didn't believe in it enough (and with apologies to Richard Tyndall, that is what people suggest, not merely that a believer would have spotted some issues and avoided them, as the triangulation toward no deal has shown it is about who is the most Brexity, not who could deliver a good deal), and that is nonsense.
Why do the Tories even bother in NI? It is simply humiliating. Eleventh place.
Given no one expects anything of it I don't think it is really. Personally as silly as standing there is, I find it slightly encouraging that any of the GB parties would try, since NI politics just enforces the idea they are a completely separated entity from the rest of the country. Which makes sense for the nationalist parties, but the unionist ones not so much. And their standard retort is just that no one understands them, which only further makes the case for the nationalists. And of course, maybe other British residents would like the opportunity to vote for the same groups that they can vote for anywhere else.
Comments
> https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1132976778845347841
Theresa May can be criticised for many things but she tried her utmost to deliver a meaningful Brexit.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > >
> > > > The Tories have little choice but to back hard Brexit now, they will never win power as remainers, most likely they would disappear within 10 to 15 years. Their only hope is swallowing Farages party before it swallows them. Labour are now finished regardless, a new centre alliance that can distance itself from the stench of sandal is needed.
> > > > Or, those Tories who can live with hard Brexit, probably 200, pull away and team up with Farage and win an enormous landslide.
> > > > Grim
> > > ---------
> > >
> > > As a hard Brexit party, the Tories would lose their core seats in the London commuter belt, but their brand is too toxic to win in the places that a hard Brexit message would appeal to.
> >
> > Then they are done. Like Labour. It's a Farage versus the centre alliance world with Scotland shearing off
>
> If Scotland shears off its easier for the Tories to win a majority of course.
>
> Let's not forget that the Tories won a healthy majority of English seats last time.
And got 9% in the Euros failing to win a single council area afaik. They have demonstrated the reality of a world without them in any significant number
But that doesn’t matter unless they are ever in a position that forces them to do anything but shout Brexit betrayal.
> Congrats to YouGov and Ipsos-Mori on their polls. The fact that TBP underperformed - ie. came up a few % short of their predictions - is good news for most of us, since it shows (I think) that there's a chunk of Brexiters who don't like voting.
Did BXP underperform?
All but three pollsters had BXPs actual outcome as within their margin of error. Only in 2 did BXP get less than the margin of error of what was polled, while they got more than margin of error on one.
> Contemplating: The Brexit Party choosing George Gallaway as their candidate in Peterborough.
Peterborough's candidates are already chosen.
> > @FF43 said:
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > .
> > The people in the middle actually hold the keys to it. I remain convinced that a soft Brexit that is largely symbolic would command majority support in the country. Unfortunately, there is no way to get to that position.
> >
> > ---------------
> >
> > Problem is, that "largely symbolic" Brexit requires the UK to substantially outsource its economic and trade policy to a party it's not a member of. That's a problem if you voted Leave to take control or Remain to be at the heart of Europe and the international system.
> >
> > Having said that, I still think symbolism is the most likely eventual outcome. It will come at a very high price.
>
> Of course the rational solution is to opt out of the political structures while remaining in the trading structures.
>
> It's a measure of how dysfunctional our politics are that this is so hard to achieve - even though the failure to achieve it looks as though it may be fatal to one or both of the parties that currently dominate parliament.
---------
The political structures are the ones that decide the trading ones. Opting out of the political structures in practice means not showing up to the meetings that decide the things that matter to us. Of course they are hardly going to take our interest into account. It has practical implications as well as incurring a democratic deficit.
I don't dismiss this however, as I think this is most likely where we will end up eventually.
https://twitter.com/chrismorrisbits/status/1132918660593537029
> Heart of stone etc.....
>
> Humiliated Tommy Robinson demands second vote after losing £5k deposit
>
>
>
> Indeed they have Tommy, indeed the have.
I know that Tommy Robinson is not consistent about anything, but he cannot now sensibly argue against a second Brexit referendum!
> > @Philip_Thompson said:
> > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > >
> > > > > The Tories have little choice but to back hard Brexit now, they will never win power as remainers, most likely they would disappear within 10 to 15 years. Their only hope is swallowing Farages party before it swallows them. Labour are now finished regardless, a new centre alliance that can distance itself from the stench of sandal is needed.
> > > > > Or, those Tories who can live with hard Brexit, probably 200, pull away and team up with Farage and win an enormous landslide.
> > > > > Grim
> > > > ---------
> > > >
> > > > As a hard Brexit party, the Tories would lose their core seats in the London commuter belt, but their brand is too toxic to win in the places that a hard Brexit message would appeal to.
> > >
> > > Then they are done. Like Labour. It's a Farage versus the centre alliance world with Scotland shearing off
> >
> > If Scotland shears off its easier for the Tories to win a majority of course.
> >
> > Let's not forget that the Tories won a healthy majority of English seats last time.
>
> And got 9% in the Euros failing to win a single council area afaik. They have demonstrated the reality of a world without them in any significant number
Because many of their voters went on strike in disgust at May. I did. I wasn't going to vote for May's Tories in the Euros. I hope and expect to vote for the Tories next time.
I bet there were a great many Tory party members who quietly voted BXP and are now looking forward to casting a vote in the members stage of the forthcoming leadership contest.
> Congrats to YouGov and Ipsos-Mori on their polls. The fact that TBP underperformed - ie. came up a few % short of their predictions - is good news for most of us, since it shows (I think) that there's a chunk of Brexiters who don't like voting.
Or that there's a chunk of Brexiteers packing the opinion poll panels.
His assessment of No Deal now is just so much handwaving.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Heart of stone etc.....
> >
> > Humiliated Tommy Robinson demands second vote after losing £5k deposit
> >
> >
> >
> > Indeed they have Tommy, indeed the have.
>
> I know that Tommy Robinson is not consistent about anything, but he cannot now sensibly argue against a second Brexit referendum!
>
'Tommy' of course lost his crowdfunders deposit, not his own cash. The twat.
> An earlier incarnation of the Gover, what a card!
>
> https://twitter.com/chrismorrisbits/status/1132918660593537029
Staggered by how normal he looks, he seems to have shrunk along the Y axis since then.
> An earlier incarnation of the Gover, what a card!
>
> https://twitter.com/chrismorrisbits/status/1132918660593537029
Quite funny. Is that genuinely Gove?
> Congrats to YouGov and Ipsos-Mori on their polls. The fact that TBP underperformed - ie. came up a few % short of their predictions - is good news for most of us, since it shows (I think) that there's a chunk of Brexiters who don't like voting.
There is a chunk of Brexiteers who traditionally voted Labour but who don't like voting when the only way of expressing their support for an unequivocal Brexit is to vote for a party of the right.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
>
> > > @isam said:
>
> > > > @SouthamObserver said:
>
> > >
>
> > > > > @Philip_Thompson said:
>
> > >
>
> > > > > You have it backwards.
>
> > >
>
> > > > >
>
> > >
>
> > > > > If Tory MPs and Members vote for a PM who is genuinely prepared to accept No Deal (as they should) then the HoC can't stop it short of voting for a GE by a VONC and possible unemployment. For the likes of Grieve etc who might be considering it they'd be voting for guaranteed unemployment.
>
> > >
>
> > > >
>
> > >
>
> > > > Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > You say that a No Deal Brexit currently enjoys minority support in the country, but that's moot. All positions currently enjoy minority support in the country.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > It falls upon the government to govern and pick a choice from the available minority positions then make the best of it.
>
> > >
>
> > > The only definite majority there has been since 2016 is to Leave.
>
> >
>
> > And we shall never be allowed to vote to find another majority!
>
>
>
> There was a General Election in 2017 contested by parties wanting a second referendum. They lost.
>
>
>
> There's another General Election due no later than 2022. If a party wanting another referendum wins that they can hold one.
>
> In 2017 the rational conclusion to draw was that the majority supported Brexit and there was no way to stop it. So I voted for the party that was likely to implement a softer Brexit. Now that Brexit looks highly stoppable switching to one of the remain parties not only made sense, it felt like a patriotic duty.
In that election the only party supporting a no deal Brexit got 1.8%. They lost. If they win an election they can conduct a no deal Brexit.
We can go round in circles citing our little pockets of data. The other side will not give way and neither side has the support to change it.
I am not particularly in favour of a second referendum although one may end up being necessary, I am merely pointing out the absurdity of saying the only majority that we have is from 2016 at the same time as refusing any new votes to find out the current views. Of course the only majority is from the last binary vote.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> > > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > > For more than a decade now the risk that the Conservatives and Labour have had to manage has been that they will lose Eurosceptic/Leave voters to Farage's outfit. Now, for the first time, we can see that Europhile/Remain voters have been prepared to change their vote away from the big two to support other parties.
> > > >
> > > > That changes the balance of risks and shifts the centre of debate in a big way. The overall balance for Leave/Remain might be little changed, but the political consequences for positioning are now different.
> > > >
> > > > That's the biggest thing this election has changed.
> > >
> > > Indeed. Remainers are the insurgents now.
> >
> > Who are the personalities to take the LDs forward now? It is just Swinson and Moran? Their lack of MPs and senior MPs in particular will be big problem for them to take over the centre ground and manage a GE campaign. Farron and Cable are not the answer, Lamb is not bad, the rest are non descript. Are the likes of Hughes and Laws still involved?
>
> *************************************************************************************
>
> The LibDems could do with Heidi, Anna and Sarah.
Indeed. I do think the idea of their new centre movement is actually a good one, but it is scuppered by FPTP. Hearing Rachel Johnson being interviewed last night, I'm sure that quite a few in ChUK are discussing whether to jump ship. They'd love to just have a pact instead, but the LibDems have almost nothing to gain from one. (The only pact that's possible is a left-of-centre one in the event that it looked like the Farageists might win a GE.)
The trouble is now that they've gone to all the trouble of starting the party, it's hard to jump ship, but Heidi and Sarah could well do it, especially if (?) Layla is making overtures.
> Maybe Jo Swinson can work something out with Caroline Lucas. Change UK's best option is being allowed to sit as LDs under the same kind of Co-op Labour model. Some sort of Remain alliance in any snap election seems more plausible now with both Greens and LDs doing better, they have both so much more to gain from cooperation.
Change got 3.5%, servitude to the LD model would betray the half a million who voted for them. Minor partner in an alliance would be more appropriate - stand aside in the bulk of seats in return for a free run in 40 or 50, areas where the Lib Dems are dirt plus the seats of the current MPs. Or convince the LDs to rebrand and claim a merger when in reality it's a takeover but with the bonus of new branding.
> > @Dadge said:
> > Congrats to YouGov and Ipsos-Mori on their polls. The fact that TBP underperformed - ie. came up a few % short of their predictions - is good news for most of us, since it shows (I think) that there's a chunk of Brexiters who don't like voting.
>
> Or that there's a chunk of Brexiteers packing the opinion poll panels.
Given we spent the weekend looking at turn-out patterns, it's pretty safe to say that brexit voters (marginally) sat this one out more than remain.
Why a remain voter should find the cheering, looking ahead to votes which may matter, I'm not clear about.
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1132976778845347841
>
> Theresa May can be criticised for many things but she tried her utmost to deliver a meaningful Brexit.
In the context of those tweets, what matters is whether the Brexit is seen to be meaningful by the 52%.
Lab 180
Tory 180
Lib dem 100
Brexit 100
Snats 50
Etc
A Corbyn Swinson Sturgeon government with a tiny majority. Lolz
> > @Barnesian said:
> > > @Philip_Thompson said:
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would.
> > > >
> > > > Tiny handful maybe enough
> > >
> > > VONC isn't enough to stop Brexit though. It has to be done in time to hold the election and a new government prevents Brexit. Plus there's no guarantee under FPTP that Brexit supporters won't win the election.
> > >
> > > If the election is between a hard Brexiteer leading the Tories, Corbyn still prevaricating and the Lib Dems etc there's every chance the Tories could win the election just as the BXP won last week's election.
> > *************************************************************************************
> >
> > After a VONC, there are 14 days to find a PM who commands the confidence of the house in a vote of confidence. There may be sufficient MPs to give that confidence to someone who will ask the EU for an extension (which they will get in the circumstances) and then resign for a GE. The extension may be for four years of course. "Here you are. Don't come back bothering us until you've sorted yourself out".
>
> Corbyn won't give confidence to anyone else and Corbyn won't resign if he gets in power.
********************************************************************************
He might not be leader by October.
> > @Theuniondivvie said:
>
> > An earlier incarnation of the Gover, what a card!
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/chrismorrisbits/status/1132918660593537029
>
>
>
>
>
> Quite funny. Is that genuinely Gove?
>
> I presume that's "A Stab in the Dark". Yes, it's Gove.
I'd never heard of that show. Thanks.
> > @Philip_Thompson said:
> > Corbyn won't give confidence to anyone else and Corbyn won't resign if he gets in power.
> ********************************************************************************
>
> He might not be leader by October.
*********
I won't hold my breath over that.
Let me answer for you: you don't. You just assume that every one of them has exactly the same view of Brexit as you.
Which if it works will spike the LD and Green revival.
> > @Barnesian said:
> > > @Philip_Thompson said:
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would.
> > > >
> > > > Tiny handful maybe enough
> > >
> > > VONC isn't enough to stop Brexit though. It has to be done in time to hold the election and a new government prevents Brexit. Plus there's no guarantee under FPTP that Brexit supporters won't win the election.
> > >
> > > If the election is between a hard Brexiteer leading the Tories, Corbyn still prevaricating and the Lib Dems etc there's every chance the Tories could win the election just as the BXP won last week's election.
> > *************************************************************************************
> >
> > After a VONC, there are 14 days to find a PM who commands the confidence of the house in a vote of confidence. There may be sufficient MPs to give that confidence to someone who will ask the EU for an extension (which they will get in the circumstances) and then resign for a GE. The extension may be for four years of course. "Here you are. Don't come back bothering us until you've sorted yourself out".
>
> Corbyn won't give confidence to anyone else and Corbyn won't resign if he gets in power.
Scenario: It's 20th October 2019. 3 Days ago the HoC voted no confidence in Her Majesty's prime minister because he's just sitting on his hands waiting for Halloween The VoNC was carried by 15 Votes. Now that the country really is in crisis 50 plus Conservatives (including Mrs May), most Labour Party MPs and all minor parties have agreed to send Ken Clarke to the Queen to form an emergency government on the grounds of preventing No Deal Brexit and holding GE in November.
Are you really claiming that Corbyn would not support this emergency government, when he is so close the the GE that he believes he can win??
> Maybe Jo Swinson can work something out with Caroline Lucas. Change UK's best option is being allowed to sit as LDs under the same kind of Co-op Labour model. Some sort of Remain alliance in any snap election seems more plausible now with both Greens and LDs doing better, they have both so much more to gain from cooperation.
>
> I think come the GE - if it does come - Labour will pivot to Ref2 and Remain.
>
> Which if it works will spike the LD and Green revival.
Nah, Corbyn will still be calling for a GE in the GE campaign
> Maybe Jo Swinson can work something out with Caroline Lucas. Change UK's best option is being allowed to sit as LDs under the same kind of Co-op Labour model. Some sort of Remain alliance in any snap election seems more plausible now with both Greens and LDs doing better, they have both so much more to gain from cooperation.
>
> I think come the GE - if it does come - Labour will pivot to Ref2 and Remain.
>
> Which if it works will spike the LD and Green revival.
Given a large proportion of the Green vote uptick seems to have come from socialist remainers, I'm not sure a GE pact would command wide support.
> > @Philip_Thompson said:
> > > @Barnesian said:
> > > > @Philip_Thompson said:
> > > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > > I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would.
> > > > >
> > > > > Tiny handful maybe enough
> > > >
> > > > VONC isn't enough to stop Brexit though. It has to be done in time to hold the election and a new government prevents Brexit. Plus there's no guarantee under FPTP that Brexit supporters won't win the election.
> > > >
> > > > If the election is between a hard Brexiteer leading the Tories, Corbyn still prevaricating and the Lib Dems etc there's every chance the Tories could win the election just as the BXP won last week's election.
> > > *************************************************************************************
> > >
> > > After a VONC, there are 14 days to find a PM who commands the confidence of the house in a vote of confidence. There may be sufficient MPs to give that confidence to someone who will ask the EU for an extension (which they will get in the circumstances) and then resign for a GE. The extension may be for four years of course. "Here you are. Don't come back bothering us until you've sorted yourself out".
> >
> > Corbyn won't give confidence to anyone else and Corbyn won't resign if he gets in power.
>
> Scenario: It's 20th October 2019. 3 Days ago the HoC voted no confidence in Her Majesty's prime minister because he's just sitting on his hands waiting for Halloween The VoNC was carried by 15 Votes. Now that the country really is in crisis 50 plus Conservatives (including Mrs May), most Labour Party MPs and all minor parties have agreed to send Ken Clarke to the Queen to form an emergency government on the grounds of preventing No Deal Brexit and holding GE in November.
>
> Are you really claiming that Corbyn would not support this emergency government, when he is so close the the GE that he believes he can win??
Bizarrely if Corbyn did block unity and go for a no deal GE, and Labour won the GE he would probably face an immediate coup from the Labour PLP for the brexit debacle and still would not end up PM!
> Anyone know why the Lib Dem Vote % on BF still has liquidity at not 1.01? Someone is laying money at 1.05-1.16 that they'll get under 20%. Is that not certain at this point?
Northern Ireland turnout to be added still . Obviously zero per cent for LD party there so very slight chance (if t/o very high in NI) to knock it out of the 20% band
> > @Barnesian said:
> > > @Philip_Thompson said:
> > > Corbyn won't give confidence to anyone else and Corbyn won't resign if he gets in power.
> > ********************************************************************************
> >
> > He might not be leader by October.
>
> *********
>
> I won't hold my breath over that.
About 2/1 against on BetFair but there is a credible scenario developing today.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
>
> > > @CarlottaVance said:
>
> > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1132976778845347841
>
>
>
> >
>
> > Theresa May can be criticised for many things but she tried her utmost to deliver a meaningful Brexit.
>
>
>
> In the context of those tweets, what matters is whether the Brexit is seen to be meaningful by the 52%.
>
> Grrrr! How on earth do you know what is seen as meaningful by 'the 52%'?
>
> Let me answer for you: you don't. You just assume that every one of them has exactly the same view of Brexit as you.
The Tory manifesto promised a Brexit that would unite the country and deliver prosperity. There were no downsides.
Last nights vote happening in a GE would mean a parliamentary majority for no deal
******** GENERAL ELECTION ALERT Thursday 21st November *******
Calendar :
September 26th - Dominic Rabb elected leader of the Conservative Party defeating Michael Gove by 61-39%
September 27th - Dominic Rabb attends the Queen and is appointed Prime Minister.
October 2nd - At the Conservative party conference PM Rabb reaffirms that the UK will leave the EU on October 29th on No Deal WTO terms.
October 3rd - The pound falls to £1 - $1.11 and £1 - Euro 1.01
October 4th - Eight Conservative MP's resign the whip to sit as independents.
October 15th - House of Commons returns. Labour immediately places VONC in the government.
October 17th - VONC debate - As five of the new former Conservative independents vote with the opposition and three abstain the government loses the VONC by 4 votes - 319-315.
October 18th - The House of Commons vote by a overwhelming majority to dissolve parliament by 613 to 13.
October 21st - The EU agree a six month extension.
October 28th - Parliament dissolved.
November 21st - Polling day.
November 22nd - HM Queen asks ..... Mike Smithson for a few betting tips and requests OGH to send in the new Prime Minister as they cross in the ante-room ....
> > @kinabalu said:
> > Maybe Jo Swinson can work something out with Caroline Lucas. Change UK's best option is being allowed to sit as LDs under the same kind of Co-op Labour model. Some sort of Remain alliance in any snap election seems more plausible now with both Greens and LDs doing better, they have both so much more to gain from cooperation.
> >
> > I think come the GE - if it does come - Labour will pivot to Ref2 and Remain.
> >
> > Which if it works will spike the LD and Green revival.
>
> Given a large proportion of the Green vote uptick seems to have come from socialist remainers, I'm not sure a GE pact would command wide support.
I voted green this time and am definitely not a socialist. Socialists are probably sticking with Corbyn as the EU is not a big priority for them, indeed sometimes a hindrance.
> > @Quincel said:
> > Anyone know why the Lib Dem Vote % on BF still has liquidity at not 1.01? Someone is laying money at 1.05-1.16 that they'll get under 20%. Is that not certain at this point?
>
> Northern Ireland turnout to be added still . Obviously zero per cent for LD party there so very slight chance (if t/o very high in NI) to knock it out of the 20% band
On the contrary, my question is why anything thinks Northern Ireland won't knock it out of the band. The Lib Dems are on 20.3% in GB, in 2014 NI knocked almost 1% off the vote totals of parties in that range. Unless turnout in NI is under half of what it was last time then we know the LDs are under 20% overall - and yet someone is still willing to offer bets.
> > @Quincel said:
> > Anyone know why the Lib Dem Vote % on BF still has liquidity at not 1.01? Someone is laying money at 1.05-1.16 that they'll get under 20%. Is that not certain at this point?
>
> Northern Ireland turnout to be added still . Obviously zero per cent for LD party there so very slight chance (if t/o very high in NI) to knock it out of the 20% band
Isn't the Alliance the LD's sister party in Northern Ireland?
> Maybe Jo Swinson can work something out with Caroline Lucas. Change UK's best option is being allowed to sit as LDs under the same kind of Co-op Labour model. Some sort of Remain alliance in any snap election seems more plausible now with both Greens and LDs doing better, they have both so much more to gain from cooperation.
>
> I think come the GE - if it does come - Labour will pivot to Ref2 and Remain.
>
> Which if it works will spike the LD and Green revival.
If Labour puts a Referendum in a GE manifesto, the party does not need to advocate Remain. If they win the election they could then hold a referendum where Leave means a Corbyn Brexit (WA+CU) against Remain=No Brexit.
> > @state_go_away said:
> > > @Quincel said:
> > > Anyone know why the Lib Dem Vote % on BF still has liquidity at not 1.01? Someone is laying money at 1.05-1.16 that they'll get under 20%. Is that not certain at this point?
> >
> > Northern Ireland turnout to be added still . Obviously zero per cent for LD party there so very slight chance (if t/o very high in NI) to knock it out of the 20% band
>
> Isn't the Alliance the LD's sister party in Northern Ireland?
i doubt they count as the same party for this
> > @state_go_away said:
> > > @Quincel said:
> > > Anyone know why the Lib Dem Vote % on BF still has liquidity at not 1.01? Someone is laying money at 1.05-1.16 that they'll get under 20%. Is that not certain at this point?
> >
> > Northern Ireland turnout to be added still . Obviously zero per cent for LD party there so very slight chance (if t/o very high in NI) to knock it out of the 20% band
>
> On the contrary, my question is why anything thinks Northern Ireland won't knock it out of the band. The Lib Dems are on 20.3% in GB, in 2014 NI knocked almost 1% off the vote totals of parties in that range. Unless turnout in NI is under half of what it was last time then we know the LDs are under 20% overall - and yet someone is still willing to offer bets.
well clean it up then!!
> > @state_go_away said:
> > > @Quincel said:
> > > Anyone know why the Lib Dem Vote % on BF still has liquidity at not 1.01? Someone is laying money at 1.05-1.16 that they'll get under 20%. Is that not certain at this point?
> >
> > Northern Ireland turnout to be added still . Obviously zero per cent for LD party there so very slight chance (if t/o very high in NI) to knock it out of the 20% band
>
> On the contrary, my question is why anything thinks Northern Ireland won't knock it out of the band. The Lib Dems are on 20.3% in GB, in 2014 NI knocked almost 1% off the vote totals of parties in that range. Unless turnout in NI is under half of what it was last time then we know the LDs are under 20% overall - and yet someone is still willing to offer bets.
Again - the percentage knocked off for NI isn't a constant, but proportional to the GB percentage. But yes, if the Lib Dems or on 20.3% in GB, NI will knock them down to under 20%.
> > @Quincel said:
> > > @state_go_away said:
> > > > @Quincel said:
> > > > Anyone know why the Lib Dem Vote % on BF still has liquidity at not 1.01? Someone is laying money at 1.05-1.16 that they'll get under 20%. Is that not certain at this point?
> > >
> > > Northern Ireland turnout to be added still . Obviously zero per cent for LD party there so very slight chance (if t/o very high in NI) to knock it out of the 20% band
> >
> > On the contrary, my question is why anything thinks Northern Ireland won't knock it out of the band. The Lib Dems are on 20.3% in GB, in 2014 NI knocked almost 1% off the vote totals of parties in that range. Unless turnout in NI is under half of what it was last time then we know the LDs are under 20% overall - and yet someone is still willing to offer bets.
>
> well clean it up then!!
I did that overnight and this morning but I've now gotten to my limit of how much I'll put on even an apparently sure thing (hence why I'm now willing to publicise it here). It's just weird...
> > @Tabman said:
> > > @kinabalu said:
> > > Maybe Jo Swinson can work something out with Caroline Lucas. Change UK's best option is being allowed to sit as LDs under the same kind of Co-op Labour model. Some sort of Remain alliance in any snap election seems more plausible now with both Greens and LDs doing better, they have both so much more to gain from cooperation.
> > >
> > > I think come the GE - if it does come - Labour will pivot to Ref2 and Remain.
> > >
> > > Which if it works will spike the LD and Green revival.
> >
> > Given a large proportion of the Green vote uptick seems to have come from socialist remainers, I'm not sure a GE pact would command wide support.
>
> I voted green this time and am definitely not a socialist. Socialists are probably sticking with Corbyn as the EU is not a big priority for them, indeed sometimes a hindrance.
I was generalising. I think the 2017 Corbyn supporting remainers seems to have split as follows:
- woke young lefties: Green
- centrist dads: Lib Dem
> > @state_go_away said:
> > > @Quincel said:
> > > Anyone know why the Lib Dem Vote % on BF still has liquidity at not 1.01? Someone is laying money at 1.05-1.16 that they'll get under 20%. Is that not certain at this point?
> >
> > Northern Ireland turnout to be added still . Obviously zero per cent for LD party there so very slight chance (if t/o very high in NI) to knock it out of the 20% band
>
> Isn't the Alliance the LD's sister party in Northern Ireland?
Yeah the rules are clear, LDs only. The exception is the Green vote which includes the Scottish Greens and The Green Party of England and Wales.
>
> October 4th - Eight Conservative MP's resign the whip to sit as independents.
>
Who are the magnificent/despicable eight?
> Ok ..... like Boris in a thong I'm going to let it hang it all there .....
>
> ******** GENERAL ELECTION ALERT Thursday 21st November *******
>
> Calendar :
>
> September 26th - Dominic Rabb elected leader of the Conservative Party defeating Michael Gove by 61-39%
>
> September 27th - Dominic Rabb attends the Queen and is appointed Prime Minister.
>
> October 2nd - At the Conservative party conference PM Rabb reaffirms that the UK will leave the EU on October 29th on No Deal WTO terms.
>
> October 3rd - The pound falls to £1 - $1.11 and £1 - Euro 1.01
>
> October 4th - Eight Conservative MP's resign the whip to sit as independents.
>
> October 15th - House of Commons returns. Labour immediately places VONC in the government.
>
> October 17th - VONC debate - As five of the new former Conservative independents vote with the opposition and three abstain the government loses the VONC by 4 votes - 319-315.
>
> October 18th - The House of Commons vote by a overwhelming majority to dissolve parliament by 613 to 13.
>
> October 21st - The EU agree a six month extension.
>
> October 28th - Parliament dissolved.
>
> November 21st - Polling day.
>
> November 22nd - HM Queen asks ..... Mike Smithson for a few betting tips and requests OGH to send in the new Prime Minister as they cross in the ante-room ....
>
>
Aren't the Tories aiming to have the new leader in place by mid-late July?
Agree we're going to have an autumn election though... Suspect it will be in October rather than November.
...sorry, couldn't resist it.
Does anyone have a feel for what percentage of the population this is and how they voted? I am assuming they would vote Lab or Tory, but what is their percentage?
If there was another referendum how many would revert?
> Farage now has as many seats as Merkels CDU\CSU
>
> He does (29, I think). It's a major achievement and a considerable participation in politics at a European level. Let us see if he can repeat the feat in 2024...
>
> ...sorry, couldn't resist it.
odds are he will have to.
This has the huge advantage of pissing off Macron who is scheduled to get the same number of seats as LePen if the UK leaves.
However, far worse has been the reaction on social media (particularly twitter). The number of remainers crowing over flawed graphs (e.g including Lab in remain totals, or conveniently ignoring the Tories in pro-Brexit totals) and leavers trolling GIFs of Farage laughing like a leathery clown is sickening.
New PM is going to have to be a miracle worker.
"Aren't the Tories aiming to have the new leader in place by mid-late July?
Agree we're going to have an autumn election though... Suspect it will be in October rather than November."
........................................................................................
The very earliest viable date, with several rounds of voting and all the hustings, is late August and much more likely well into mid September.
> Supposedly there are remainers who accept the vote and think we should leave with a deal (or possibly even no deal). That is certainly true of quite a few MPs.
>
> Does anyone have a feel for what percentage of the population this is and how they voted? I am assuming they would vote Lab or Tory, but what is their percentage?
>
> If there was another referendum how many would revert?
>
My mother is one. She didn't vote, because much as the second referendum talk aggravated her she couldn't bring herself to vote for Farage.
"Who are the magnificent/despicable eight?"
...............................................................
My lips are sealed, save for a substantial bribe !! ....
LDs second with 14%, TBP third on 12%, Greens fourth and the Conservatives fifth.
Newham voted 53-47 REMAIN in 2016.
At last year's local elections Labour polled 75% across the Borough.
> @GIN1138 said:
>
> "Aren't the Tories aiming to have the new leader in place by mid-late July?
>
> Agree we're going to have an autumn election though... Suspect it will be in October rather than November."
>
> ........................................................................................
>
> The very earliest viable date, with several rounds of voting and all the hustings, is late August and much more likely well into mid September.
>
>
That is what David Cameron thought last time and he was gone in three weeks. The process will likely shorten as and when candidates drop out.
> > @isam said:
>
> > "Any Other" out from 9.2 a week or so ago.. quite strange given last nights results for the big two.
>
>
>
> Presumably that's because the Lib Dems have come in after doing better than expected last night.
>
> Maybe yeah, although I think the Brexit Party to wins majority has shortened also
> Only if you cheat and allocate Tories to No Deal
> Last nights vote happening in a GE would mean a parliamentary majority for no deal
> @GIN1138 said:
>
> "Aren't the Tories aiming to have the new leader in place by mid-late July?
>
> Agree we're going to have an autumn election though... Suspect it will be in October rather than November."
>
> ........................................................................................
>
> The very earliest viable date, with several rounds of voting and all the hustings, is late August and much more likely well into mid September.
>
>
2 votes a week is not remotely set in stone. No good reason this can't be with the members 10 days after close of nominations. Quicker if they really wanted.
I wonder how many will write in Farage as a candidate.
> https://twitter.com/sjamcbride/status/1132986488340254720?s=21
Why do the Tories even bother in NI? It is simply humiliating. Eleventh place.
> > @Chris said:
> > > @FF43 said:
> > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > .
> > > The people in the middle actually hold the keys to it. I remain convinced that a soft Brexit that is largely symbolic would command majority support in the country. Unfortunately, there is no way to get to that position.
> > >
> > > ---------------
> > >
> > > Problem is, that "largely symbolic" Brexit requires the UK to substantially outsource its economic and trade policy to a party it's not a member of. That's a problem if you voted Leave to take control or Remain to be at the heart of Europe and the international system.
> > >
> > > Having said that, I still think symbolism is the most likely eventual outcome. It will come at a very high price.
> >
> > Of course the rational solution is to opt out of the political structures while remaining in the trading structures.
> >
> > It's a measure of how dysfunctional our politics are that this is so hard to achieve - even though the failure to achieve it looks as though it may be fatal to one or both of the parties that currently dominate parliament.
>
> ---------
>
> The political structures are the ones that decide the trading ones. Opting out of the political structures in practice means not showing up to the meetings that decide the things that matter to us. Of course they are hardly going to take our interest into account. It has practical implications as well as incurring a democratic deficit.
>
> I don't dismiss this however, as I think this is most likely where we will end up eventually.
Yes, of course it's true that if we opt out of the political structures we'll have minimal influence on the trading structures.
It doesn't make sense, but that's Brexit for you.
> https://twitter.com/sjamcbride/status/1132986488340254720?s=21
The most significant result of all?
> > @CarlottaVance said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1132976778845347841
>
>
>
>
>
> Theresa May can be criticised for many things but she tried her utmost to deliver a meaningful Brexit.
>
> Quite. Badly, and she failed, but she tried.
Eddie the Eagle “tried” being a ski jumper. He failed. But it was a great comic act.
> > @JackW said:
>
> > @GIN1138 said:
>
> >
>
> > "Aren't the Tories aiming to have the new leader in place by mid-late July?
>
> >
>
> > Agree we're going to have an autumn election though... Suspect it will be in October rather than November."
>
> >
>
> > ........................................................................................
>
> >
>
> > The very earliest viable date, with several rounds of voting and all the hustings, is late August and much more likely well into mid September.
>
> >
>
> >
>
>
>
> That is what David Cameron thought last time and he was gone in three weeks. The process will likely shorten as and when candidates drop out.
>
> Sure but the members will riot if they dont get to vote this time, so it will be a bit longer.
>
> I wonder how many will write in Farage as a candidate.
I hope they get some tight rules on duration of membership to be eligible to vote, otherwise it is ripe for being subverted. Joining the Tory party would be the easiest way to choose the Prime Minister and stop/force a no deal Brexit.
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @JackW said:
> >
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > "Aren't the Tories aiming to have the new leader in place by mid-late July?
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Agree we're going to have an autumn election though... Suspect it will be in October rather than November."
> >
> > >
> >
> > > ........................................................................................
> >
> > >
> >
> > > The very earliest viable date, with several rounds of voting and all the hustings, is late August and much more likely well into mid September.
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> > That is what David Cameron thought last time and he was gone in three weeks. The process will likely shorten as and when candidates drop out.
> >
> > Sure but the members will riot if they dont get to vote this time, so it will be a bit longer.
> >
> > I wonder how many will write in Farage as a candidate.
>
> I hope they get some tight rules on duration of membership to be eligible to vote, otherwise it is ripe for being subverted. Joining the Tory party would be the easiest way to choose the Prime Minister and stop/force a no deal Brexit.
I'm sure they'll take your money to be a member, but you're 3 months late already if you want a vote.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > https://twitter.com/sjamcbride/status/1132986488340254720?s=21
>
> The most significant result of all?
Perhaps.
Can you hear that ripping sound? It’s the Union being torn apart at the seams. By the Conservative and Unionist Party.
> > @Chris said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > https://twitter.com/sjamcbride/status/1132986488340254720?s=21
> >
> > The most significant result of all?
>
> Perhaps.
>
> Can you hear that ripping sound? It’s the Union being torn apart at the seams. By the Conservative and Unionist Party.
A unionist vote of 42%.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/27/nigel-farage-brexit-party-win-big-wake-up-call-westminster
I wonder when Mordaunt will decide whether to stand or not.
Edited extra bit:
https://twitter.com/susie_dent/status/1132963896455835648
Williamson is also suspended (but I suspect Corbyn would let him back on).
There is also Lloyd who left the LD whip to vote for Brexit
I can’t imagine the CHUKs would want an early election either.
I wouldn’t expect any of them to vote for PM Boris or Raab but there might be a nasty stomach bug going round that day...
>
> I hope they get some tight rules on duration of membership to be eligible to vote, otherwise it is ripe for being subverted. Joining the Tory party would be the easiest way to choose the Prime Minister and stop/force a no deal Brexit.
Hasn't the Conservative Party just announced 30,000 new members? How did that work out for Labour?
> Sarah Wollaston admitting that CUK screwed up. I wouldn't be surprised to see her and Heidi Allen end up in the Lib Dems sooner rather than later.
>
> https://twitter.com/sarahwollaston/status/1132942571024592896 <
+++++
What a cavalcade of cack her career has been.
Trouble at mill. Not that champagne socialists ever worked in mills, of course.
One does not simply walk into Mordaunt.
Also Nick Boles - although doubt he would vote for any Con right winger.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1132986075755032577