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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the final polls did against the actual results – party by party
As can be seen from the charts above the biggest problem the pollsters had was with LAB which had a huge range in the final polls. Partly, I suspect, this was that Labour supporters had not finalised their decision to vote tactically when they were being questioned.
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They lost most of the wwc, the young and the urban middle class but still kept the BAME vote.
Polling is not going to get any easier.
Though I might go back to the other thread and add "Last like Change UK".
Might be fine for one election but if Labour get in and don’t rejoin the single market I think those votes will disappear fast.
I think it’s wishful thinking to think it will all go away.
If they do they need to get a/any Brexit over the line.
no threshold, single country wide constituency....so free for all for all those random little parties...
CDU/CSU 29 seats
Greens 20 seats
SPD 16
AFD 11
Linke 6
FDP 5
Die Partei (2.4%) 2
Freie Whaler (2.2%) 2
Tierschutzpartei (1.4%) 1
ODP (1%) 1
Piraten (0.7%) 1
Familie (0.7%) 1
VOLT (0.7%) 1
Die Partei is Party for Labour, Rule of Law, Animal Protection, Promotion of Elites and Grassroots Democratic Initiative. They already had 1 MEP in 2014-19.
Freie Whaler is up from 1 to 2. They sit with ALDE
Tierschutzpartei is Party Human Environment Animal Protection. Their previous MEP sat in GUE but he has left the party during the 2014-19 parliament
ODP is Ecological Democratic Party. They sat with the Green in 2014-19
Familie is Family Party. They got a MEP in 2014 who then defected to Freie Whaler and then to some Christian Democrat party. He sat in ECR group
Piraten sat with Greens/EFA.
VOLT is a pan-European movement, sort of social liberal and progressive.
Their programme include
rebuild the Berlin Wall
start a war with Liechtestein
https://twitter.com/NickRamsayAM/status/1132805863079653377
That changes the balance of risks and shifts the centre of debate in a big way. The overall balance for Leave/Remain might be little changed, but the political consequences for positioning are now different.
That's the biggest thing this election has changed.
> No Tory share up there? For all the bollocks that will be spewed forth in the next few weeks by putative PMs, they really need to ask if they want the Party to continue to exist?
> If they do they need to get a/any Brexit over the line.
Getting "any" Brexit over the line will not make Brexit go away. A continuing CU at a huge cost kills the Tories as dead as last night. The Brexit Party will then just morph into the Not THIS Brexit Party.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @kjohnw said:
> > > > If parliament tries to block no deal half of Tory party will defect to brexit party and force GE and brexit party will win under ftpt and no deal will happen either way
> > >
> > > Stopping no deal requires the Government to legislate for it. The next leader of the conservative party facilitates no deal through inertia .
> >
> > Did we not hear all this back in December? The exact mechanism for stopping no deal is unknown now but parliamentary sovereignty has been affirmed by the attorney general who said it would be illegal for the PM to act against parliament on Brexit. If needed it will be a VONC, more likely the likes of Grieve, Letwin, Clarke et al will find a more elegant way.
>
> But it is not acting against Parliament. 498 mps voted for A50 with a default no deal and it is the law of the land.
>
> To stop it it has to be legislated for or a deal agreed
Can you not read ....VONC.
> For more than a decade now the risk that the Conservatives and Labour have had to manage has been that they will lose Eurosceptic/Leave voters to Farage's outfit. Now, for the first time, we can see that Europhile/Remain voters have been prepared to change their vote away from the big two to support other parties.
>
> That changes the balance of risks and shifts the centre of debate in a big way. The overall balance for Leave/Remain might be little changed, but the political consequences for positioning are now different.
>
> That's the biggest thing this election has changed.
Indeed. Remainers are the insurgents now.
> Given a 37% turnout, it must be extremely difficult to get right.
They did so on almost exactly that turnout at the last Mayoral election
The Labour Party faces the dilemma - keep the metropolitan south or lose the working class.
Labours best and only chance to survive is to hope for Brexit and that rejoin doesn’t take off.
Con party has a difficult choice but it’s a clear one - and there is no Rory Stewart third way.
Labour have to choose their method of death.
Gibraltar :
Liberal Democrats - 77.4(+10.2)
The Brexit Party - 8.0(+8.0)
Green 5.0(+3.8)
Labour - 4.4(-4.8)
Conservative - 2.7(-14.5)
UKIP- 0.9(-3.1)
Change UK - 0.8(+0.8)
English Democrats - 0.6(+0.3)
Mothiur Rahman - 0.1(+0.1)
Larch Maxey - 0.0(+0.0)
Neville Seed - 0.0(+0.0)
> A Conservative Welsh Assembly member decides that the answer is to insult the voters.
>
> https://twitter.com/NickRamsayAM/status/1132805863079653377
Never a good look.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > No Tory share up there? For all the bollocks that will be spewed forth in the next few weeks by putative PMs, they really need to ask if they want the Party to continue to exist?
> > If they do they need to get a/any Brexit over the line.
>
> Getting "any" Brexit over the line will not make Brexit go away. A continuing CU at a huge cost kills the Tories as dead as last night. The Brexit Party will then just morph into the Not THIS Brexit Party.
Feeding a parasite is generally a bad move.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > No Tory share up there? For all the bollocks that will be spewed forth in the next few weeks by putative PMs, they really need to ask if they want the Party to continue to exist?
> > If they do they need to get a/any Brexit over the line.
>
> Getting "any" Brexit over the line will not make Brexit go away. A continuing CU at a huge cost kills the Tories as dead as last night. The Brexit Party will then just morph into the Not THIS Brexit Party.
Not disagreeing with that. However, my point was that, failing that, we will almost certainly have a GE. Not THIS Brexit is a much harder sell than BREXIT.
On the figures last night, there would be precisely zero Conservative MPs for any new leader to lead.
So, the situation cannot just drift on till October with no resolution.
Why is this nonsense? Surely it is accurate? It doesn’t try to say Remain beats Leave, just that Remain beats The Brexit Party + UKIP, parties that lots of leavers wouldn’t vote for.
Because Nigel Farage must have done. Gone was the old immigration-hating, race-baiting, Ukip Farage. Pace the milkshake chuckers, this was a far more up-market operation, both in the flesh and on social media.
> Is there a market on when the first Brexit Party MEP will leave the party? I can't see Claire Fox staying for long when Farage presents a full manifesto, or when she has to sit with right-wing partners in the European Parliament.
Its not likely to be a problem. When we leave on 31st October (almost certainly with no deal/next to no deal now) they will be out of a job. Given the tendency of the Europeans to take August off there will be relatively few sittings for them to attend.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > No Tory share up there? For all the bollocks that will be spewed forth in the next few weeks by putative PMs, they really need to ask if they want the Party to continue to exist?
> > If they do they need to get a/any Brexit over the line.
>
> Getting "any" Brexit over the line will not make Brexit go away. A continuing CU at a huge cost kills the Tories as dead as last night. The Brexit Party will then just morph into the Not THIS Brexit Party.
Leave the CU is not going to resonate like Leave the EU.
> Die Partei is a satirical thing...they increased from 1 to 2 MEPs...I guess some found them funny
>
> Their programme include
>
> rebuild the Berlin Wall
> start a war with Liechtestein
These are not current policies
Stop the increase in beer prices is though
On Dunt's "Farage can only get a third of the vote in the best possible circumstances" being astute or not.
I don't think the best possible circumstances include record high employment, rising real sages, and constant if anaemic economic growth for a decade.
Do this again during a recession and we'll see.
> > @bondegezou said:
> > Is there a market on when the first Brexit Party MEP will leave the party? I can't see Claire Fox staying for long when Farage presents a full manifesto, or when she has to sit with right-wing partners in the European Parliament.
>
> Its not likely to be a problem. When we leave on 31st October (almost certainly with no deal/next to no deal now) they will be out of a job. Given the tendency of the Europeans to take August off there will be relatively few sittings for them to attend.
Bold prediction. How do you think a no deal Prime Minister gets to take office and command a majority in the House of Commons?
Jo Konta wins in the French Open tennis ..
> Time to rewatch Brexit with Benedict Cumberbatch as Dominic Cummings.
>
> Because Nigel Farage must have done. Gone was the old immigration-hating, race-baiting, Ukip Farage. Pace the milkshake chuckers, this was a far more up-market operation, both in the flesh and on social media.
Perhaps the real dividing line in modern politics is between those who can learn and change (or change how they come across at any rate), and those who can't. Farage and Ruth Davidson are examples of the former, while SLab is a prime example of the latter.
> FPT
>
> On Dunt's "Farage can only get a third of the vote in the best possible circumstances" being astute or not.
>
> I don't think the best possible circumstances include record high employment, rising real sages, and constant if anaemic economic growth for a decade.
>
> Do this again during a recession and we'll see.
Yes, it does indeed remain to be seen whether those who've lost their jobs because of a no deal Brexit will see Farage as the answer to all their problems.
They can't revoke; they can't call a snap election; they can't give Theresa May's withdrawal agreement one last heave. They're f.cked.
Hunt at 12/1 maybe? The market looks wrong because the first three, Boris, Raab and Gove are all fishing in the same pond but perhaps wait and see is the best punting strategy right now.
Labour doesn't matter for the moment.
https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1132954953830395904?s=21
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > @kjohnw said:
> > > > > If parliament tries to block no deal half of Tory party will defect to brexit party and force GE and brexit party will win under ftpt and no deal will happen either way
> > > >
> > > > Stopping no deal requires the Government to legislate for it. The next leader of the conservative party facilitates no deal through inertia .
> > >
> > > Did we not hear all this back in December? The exact mechanism for stopping no deal is unknown now but parliamentary sovereignty has been affirmed by the attorney general who said it would be illegal for the PM to act against parliament on Brexit. If needed it will be a VONC, more likely the likes of Grieve, Letwin, Clarke et al will find a more elegant way.
> >
> > But it is not acting against Parliament. 498 mps voted for A50 with a default no deal and it is the law of the land.
> >
> > To stop it it has to be legislated for or a deal agreed
> Can you not read ....VONC.
>
No need to shout.
The vonc in itself will not stop the 31st October exit unless the HOC passes legislation. Furthermore the vonc may come too late
I am not saying many moves will be made to stop brexit but it is clear there is a very real danger of it happening through inertia
> Tory leadership candidates have a three-pipe problem.
>
> They can't revoke; they can't call a snap election; they can't give Theresa May's withdrawal agreement one last heave. They're f.cked.
>
> Hunt at 12/1 maybe? The market looks wrong because the first three, Boris, Raab and Gove are all fishing in the same pond but perhaps wait and see is the best punting strategy right now.
>
> Labour doesn't matter for the moment.
Do what they should have done from the start - assume no deal and make any deal a bonus not a dealbreaker.
If Hammond and Rudd support Jezza in a VONC then a GE with an arrangement with the Brexit party.
GE looks most likely to me, not because they want one but because the extreme positions mean a vonc is likely to succeed.
LDs accepting the CUKers would help that as theyd feel less like they were throwing away their seats and would vote for a new GE.
https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1132747302169452546
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> > > No Tory share up there? For all the bollocks that will be spewed forth in the next few weeks by putative PMs, they really need to ask if they want the Party to continue to exist?
> > > If they do they need to get a/any Brexit over the line.
> >
> > Getting "any" Brexit over the line will not make Brexit go away. A continuing CU at a huge cost kills the Tories as dead as last night. The Brexit Party will then just morph into the Not THIS Brexit Party.
>
> Leave the CU is not going to resonate like Leave the EU.
I agree. There is enormous exasperation that our political class did not deliver Brexit like they promised and were instructed. The details of that promise/instruction will enthuse far, far fewer people.
But how do we get a deal now? Any Tory who is not willing to commit to no deal is going to be slaughtered. The next leader will be a no dealer. It's unlikely the members will even have a choice about that. Those that have manfully tried to support May's deal, Gove, Stewart, Javid, Hunt are all toast. Even those that reluctantly voted for it at the end are going to need some nifty footwork. In my opinion we are very likely to have a final 2 where Boris is the moderate.
Given that May's deal never comes back to the Commons. No MV is ever passed (and what a poisoned chalice that has proven to be). No extension is applied for. We leave with no deal in place.
Other than by the total collapse of the Conservative Party and a GE I really struggle to see an alternative.
"On topic, glad to see OGH concentrating only on the major parties."
.............................................................................................
Chortle ....
I'm tempted to say let them take over running the country and see how they do.
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @bondegezou said:
> > > Is there a market on when the first Brexit Party MEP will leave the party? I can't see Claire Fox staying for long when Farage presents a full manifesto, or when she has to sit with right-wing partners in the European Parliament.
> >
> > Its not likely to be a problem. When we leave on 31st October (almost certainly with no deal/next to no deal now) they will be out of a job. Given the tendency of the Europeans to take August off there will be relatively few sittings for them to attend.
>
> Bold prediction. How do you think a no deal Prime Minister gets to take office and command a majority in the House of Commons?
By winning the Tory Party leadership. Which they will. I think the DUP will favour no deal over the backstop. That would be enough.
If only there was a first prize for being the runner up...
With hindsight, I think the differential increase in turnout picked up on Thursday night (with working class Labour Leave voting areas generally seeing a smaller increase than those elsewhere) may have had something to do with some Leave voters who had previously voted Labour deciding to stay at home rather than casting their vote for a right wing party for the purpose of registering their opposition to Brexit. Clearly some did vote for Farage, but some will still have been put off by him. In 2016, by contrast, it was possible for those voters to back Leave in the referendum without feeling conflicted.
BTW, are Ladbrokes open today to collect winnings? Labour between 10%-20% at 10/11.
> Sneering metropolitan or righteously spatchcocking a moron, delete to taste.
>
> https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1132747302169452546
In point of fact Machiavelli was a very ineffective politician. The reason he had time to write The Prince etc was because he'd been banished from Florence by the ruling Medici. The Prince was in fact an unsuccessful attempt to build bridges with Lorenzo.
> Time for Survation to call it a day.
Survation were the new gold standard on here in 2017!
#Hero2Zero
"The SDLP think that Dodds, Anderson, and Long will be elected in that order in Northern Ireland, based on tallies."
......................................................
An Alliance party GAIN from UUP.
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > For more than a decade now the risk that the Conservatives and Labour have had to manage has been that they will lose Eurosceptic/Leave voters to Farage's outfit. Now, for the first time, we can see that Europhile/Remain voters have been prepared to change their vote away from the big two to support other parties.
> >
> > That changes the balance of risks and shifts the centre of debate in a big way. The overall balance for Leave/Remain might be little changed, but the political consequences for positioning are now different.
> >
> > That's the biggest thing this election has changed.
>
> Indeed. Remainers are the insurgents now.
Who are the personalities to take the LDs forward now? It is just Swinson and Moran? Their lack of MPs and senior MPs in particular will be big problem for them to take over the centre ground and manage a GE campaign. Farron and Cable are not the answer, Lamb is not bad, the rest are non descript. Are the likes of Hughes and Laws still involved?
> Got to say I've never known so much hype about a party losing an election like the Lib-Dems have lost this election since Jezza failed to win the 2017 general elections.
>
> If only there was a first prize for being the runner up...
Come now, you've forgotten Ruth Davidson 'winning' the 2016 Holyrood elections, the 2017 Scottish council elections and the 2017 GE in Scotland.
> Got to say I've never known so much hype about a party losing an election like the Lib-Dems have lost this election since Jezza failed to win the 2017 general elections.
>
> If only there was a first prize for being the runner up...
In a hung parliament everyone is a runner up. No-one seems to have noticed though.
> @Sean_F said:
>
> "The SDLP think that Dodds, Anderson, and Long will be elected in that order in Northern Ireland, based on tallies."
>
> ......................................................
>
> An Alliance party GAIN from UUP.
Yes. Vote shares look being something like 44% for Unionists, 36% for Nationalists, 20% for the rest, but with the SDLP finishing clearly behind Alliance, their transfers will pull Long ahead of the second Unionist.
https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1132913664791650304
> All things considered I’m astonished how little chicken licken we’re getting from either of the main parties. Both should be petrified.
This may be a controversial opinion but I think the results should worry Labour supporters more.
The Tories have accepted their leader has failed and she is going. They're debating how to move forward next. Too late to do so but necessary.
Labour's leadership has failed just as much but they don't see it that way and are not going anywhere.
> > @JackW said:
> > @Sean_F said:
> >
> > "The SDLP think that Dodds, Anderson, and Long will be elected in that order in Northern Ireland, based on tallies."
> >
> > ......................................................
> >
> > An Alliance party GAIN from UUP.
>
> Yes. Vote shares look being something like 44% for Unionists, 36% for Nationalists, 20% for the rest, but with the SDLP finishing clearly behind Alliance, their transfers will pull Long ahead of the second Unionist.
If Long had finished behind Eastwood, then the UUP would likely have retained their seat, as Alliance transfers would be more evenly divided.
Would be funny if that pushes them into a fatal mistake at Westminster. Dangerous to assume that that 4% is representative of the Labour supporters who didn’t bother to vote on Thursday.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1132961769226416128
https://twitter.com/McLellanSNP/status/1132961521816997888
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/27/change-uk-anna-soubry-berates-party-leader-heidi-allen-bizarre-tactical-vote-plea
My instinct would be to always support lovely Heidi over gin-soaked Soubry I must say...
Too late. No leader will now take the risk of no deal, and EU can make it truly hard if they are mad enough to damage themselves and us; and the HoC would find a way to stop it. Not enough MPs want to vote for a GE and possible unemployment. Predict a Boris (or substitute Boris) Revoke and start again as serious possibility.
As to what they say at the moment there is little point in taking any literal notice of it, any more than there was any point in paying attention to TM, Corbyn, manifestos or anything else.
When does the moment come when we all realise that we would be out by now but for Tories wanting their perfect deal?
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > All things considered I’m astonished how little chicken licken we’re getting from either of the main parties. Both should be petrified.
>
> This may be a controversial opinion but I think the results should worry Labour supporters more.
>
> The Tories have accepted their leader has failed and she is going. They're debating how to move forward next. Too late to do so but necessary.
>
> Labour's leadership has failed just as much but they don't see it that way and are not going anywhere.
Kind of agree: it's merely terrible for the Tories, but it's potentially terminal for Labour.
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > Time to rewatch Brexit with Benedict Cumberbatch as Dominic Cummings.
> >
> > Because Nigel Farage must have done. Gone was the old immigration-hating, race-baiting, Ukip Farage. Pace the milkshake chuckers, this was a far more up-market operation, both in the flesh and on social media.
>
>
> Perhaps the real dividing line in modern politics is between those who can learn and change (or change how they come across at any rate), and those who can't. Farage and Ruth Davidson are examples of the former, while SLab is a prime example of the latter.
>
>
Yes despite the weak Tory result in Scotland Ruth clearly is moe capable of fighting against the tide than anyone else in the party down south. The appeal of Farage is clear although deeply depressing.
> This may be a controversial opinion but I think the results should worry Labour supporters more.
I was thinking similarly, though for different reasons, and then I realised it was a difference that didn't matter. They are both in all sorts of trouble and trying to work out which is in more trouble is an exercise in futility.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > @DavidL said:
> > > > @bondegezou said:
> > > > Is there a market on when the first Brexit Party MEP will leave the party? I can't see Claire Fox staying for long when Farage presents a full manifesto, or when she has to sit with right-wing partners in the European Parliament.
> > >
> > > Its not likely to be a problem. When we leave on 31st October (almost certainly with no deal/next to no deal now) they will be out of a job. Given the tendency of the Europeans to take August off there will be relatively few sittings for them to attend.
> >
> > Bold prediction. How do you think a no deal Prime Minister gets to take office and command a majority in the House of Commons?
>
> By winning the Tory Party leadership. Which they will. I think the DUP will favour no deal over the backstop. That would be enough.
That will not be a majority.
> All things considered I’m astonished how little chicken licken we’re getting from either of the main parties. Both should be petrified.
I think the problem is that are - literally - petrified!
>
> This may be a controversial opinion but I think the results should worry Labour supporters more.
>
> The Tories have accepted their leader has failed and she is going. They're debating how to move forward next. Too late to do so but necessary.
>
> Labour's leadership has failed just as much but they don't see it that way and are not going anywhere.
I don't think that's a controversial opinion at all.
After the vote, but before the votes were counted, the Tories gave notice that the leader who got them into this mess would be on her way out. A new leader who is seen to do their utmost to deliver an unequivocal Brexit, even if he/she is frustrated by parliament, will be in a good position to recover most of the 35% who voted for the hard Brexit parties on Thursday at a GE.
Labour's problem by contrast seems insoluble. If May clung on like a limpet, then Corbyn is welded to the hull.
2014 Remain (Lab, LD, Green, SNP, PC) 41%
2019 Remain (LD, Green, ChUK, SNP, PC) 40.4%
2014 Leave (UKIP, BNP, AIFE) 29.1%
2019 Leave (BXP, UKIP) 34.9%
Labour’s 2014 Manifesto
http://www.maniffesto.com/documents/labour-european-election-manifesto-2014/
> Have (NO) Change UK chucked Chuka yet?
How much wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?
> Got to say I've never known so much hype about a party losing an election like the Lib-Dems have lost this election since Jezza failed to win the 2017 general elections.
> If only there was a first prize for being the runner up...
There was in 2017. All it took was a few millions of taxpayers` money for the DUP, and lo and behold, Mrs May made off with the prize. She was a loser really.
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
>
> > Tory leadership candidates have a three-pipe problem.
>
> >
>
> > They can't revoke; they can't call a snap election; they can't give Theresa May's withdrawal agreement one last heave. They're f.cked.
>
> >
>
> > Hunt at 12/1 maybe? The market looks wrong because the first three, Boris, Raab and Gove are all fishing in the same pond but perhaps wait and see is the best punting strategy right now.
>
> >
>
> > Labour doesn't matter for the moment.
>
>
>
> Do what they should have done from the start - assume no deal and make any deal a bonus not a dealbreaker.
>
>
>
> If Hammond and Rudd support Jezza in a VONC then a GE with an arrangement with the Brexit party.
>
>
> Too late. No leader will now take the risk of no deal, and EU can make it truly hard if they are mad enough to damage themselves and us; and the HoC would find a way to stop it. Not enough MPs want to vote for a GE and possible unemployment. Predict a Boris (or substitute Boris) Revoke and start again as serious possibility.
>
> As to what they say at the moment there is little point in taking any literal notice of it, any more than there was any point in paying attention to TM, Corbyn, manifestos or anything else.
>
> When does the moment come when we all realise that we would be out by now but for Tories wanting their perfect deal?
You have it backwards.
If Tory MPs and Members vote for a PM who is genuinely prepared to accept No Deal (as they should) then the HoC can't stop it short of voting for a GE by a VONC and possible unemployment. For the likes of Grieve etc who might be considering it they'd be voting for guaranteed unemployment.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1132963526870556672
> Remain vote is down 0.6% from 2014, Leave is up 5.8%
>
>
> 2014 Remain (Lab, LD, Green, SNP, PC) 41%
> 2019 Remain (LD, Green, SNP, PC) 40.4%
>
> 2014 Leave (UKIP, BNP, AIFE) 29.1%
> 2019 Leave (BXP, UKIP) 34.9%
>
> Labour’s 2014 Manifesto
>
> http://www.maniffesto.com/documents/labour-european-election-manifesto-2014/
Will we get a Lib-Dem bar chart on this later?
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > > @DavidL said:
> > > > > @bondegezou said:
> > > > > Is there a market on when the first Brexit Party MEP will leave the party? I can't see Claire Fox staying for long when Farage presents a full manifesto, or when she has to sit with right-wing partners in the European Parliament.
> > > >
> > > > Its not likely to be a problem. When we leave on 31st October (almost certainly with no deal/next to no deal now) they will be out of a job. Given the tendency of the Europeans to take August off there will be relatively few sittings for them to attend.
> > >
> > > Bold prediction. How do you think a no deal Prime Minister gets to take office and command a majority in the House of Commons?
> >
> > By winning the Tory Party leadership. Which they will. I think the DUP will favour no deal over the backstop. That would be enough.
>
> That will not be a majority.
We'll soon find out. Remainer Tories will have some hard choices to make.
> Remain vote is down 0.6% from 2014, Leave is up 5.8%
>
>
> 2014 Remain (Lab, LD, Green, SNP, PC) 41%
> 2019 Remain (LD, Green, SNP, PC) 40.4%
>
> 2014 Leave (UKIP, BNP, AIFE) 29.1%
> 2019 Leave (BXP, UKIP) 34.9%
>
> Labour’s 2014 Manifesto
>
> http://www.maniffesto.com/documents/labour-european-election-manifesto-2014/
Yawn, adding up numbers in the way that suits you best is not going to change anything. For the extremists on both sides, if it is all about winning rather than governing, they will both think they are winning this morning, but neither side is, nor is the middle.
The country is divided, as it has been and as it will be. We will have more paralysis and division until people accept facts and reality.
No, it has been quite possible to believe that for some time I would say.
> > @algarkirk said:
> > > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> >
> > > Tory leadership candidates have a three-pipe problem.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > They can't revoke; they can't call a snap election; they can't give Theresa May's withdrawal agreement one last heave. They're f.cked.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Hunt at 12/1 maybe? The market looks wrong because the first three, Boris, Raab and Gove are all fishing in the same pond but perhaps wait and see is the best punting strategy right now.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Labour doesn't matter for the moment.
> >
> >
> >
> > Do what they should have done from the start - assume no deal and make any deal a bonus not a dealbreaker.
> >
> >
> >
> > If Hammond and Rudd support Jezza in a VONC then a GE with an arrangement with the Brexit party.
> >
> >
> > Too late. No leader will now take the risk of no deal, and EU can make it truly hard if they are mad enough to damage themselves and us; and the HoC would find a way to stop it. Not enough MPs want to vote for a GE and possible unemployment. Predict a Boris (or substitute Boris) Revoke and start again as serious possibility.
> >
> > As to what they say at the moment there is little point in taking any literal notice of it, any more than there was any point in paying attention to TM, Corbyn, manifestos or anything else.
> >
> > When does the moment come when we all realise that we would be out by now but for Tories wanting their perfect deal?
>
> You have it backwards.
>
> If Tory MPs and Members vote for a PM who is genuinely prepared to accept No Deal (as they should) then the HoC can't stop it short of voting for a GE by a VONC and possible unemployment. For the likes of Grieve etc who might be considering it they'd be voting for guaranteed unemployment.
Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve.
> > @isam said:
>
> > Remain vote is down 0.6% from 2014, Leave is up 5.8%
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > 2014 Remain (Lab, LD, Green, SNP, PC) 41%
>
> > 2019 Remain (LD, Green, SNP, PC) 40.4%
>
> >
>
> > 2014 Leave (UKIP, BNP, AIFE) 29.1%
>
> > 2019 Leave (BXP, UKIP) 34.9%
>
> >
>
> > Labour’s 2014 Manifesto
>
> >
>
> > http://www.maniffesto.com/documents/labour-european-election-manifesto-2014/
>
>
>
> Yawn, adding up numbers in the way that suits you best is not going to change anything. For the extremists on both sides, if it is all about winning rather than governing, they will both think they are winning this morning, but neither side is, nor is the middle.
>
>
>
> The country is divided, as it has been and as it will be. We will have more paralysis and division until people accept facts and reality.
>
> Actually I agree with you. I don’t think either side is winning really, and the country is divided. I just thought it wrong that people on twitter considered Labour neutral in 2014 when they were pro EU and against a referendum, in order to exaggerate the LD & Green vote share improvements effect
The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again.
What we got was Mrs May.
That's twice he's dropped Miles Hammond.
And poor Jimmy Anderson has bowled superbly with no luck at all.