> Yawn, adding up numbers in the way that suits you best is not going to change anything. For the extremists on both sides, if it is all about winning rather than governing, they will both think they are winning this morning, but neither side is, nor is the middle.
>
>
>
> The country is divided, as it has been and as it will be. We will have more paralysis and division until people accept facts and reality.
>
> Actually I agree with you. I don’t think either side is winning really, and the country is divided. I just thought it wrong that people on twitter considered Labour neutral in 2014 when they were pro EU and against a referendum, in order to exaggerate the LD & Green vote share improvements effect
The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve. -------------
But how will they deliver it? Quite apart from the Remainer faction, they need to convince the DUP to go through with something that any rational analysis suggests will make a united Ireland much more likely.
The only way it looks possible for them to deliver No Deal is by winning an election, but an election could see them wiped out.
> @DavidL said: > > @isam said: > > > @isam said: > > > > > Remain vote is down 0.6% from 2014, Leave is up 5.8% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 2014 Remain (Lab, LD, Green, SNP, PC) 41% > > > > > 2019 Remain (LD, Green, SNP, PC) 40.4% > > > > > > > > > > 2014 Leave (UKIP, BNP, AIFE) 29.1% > > > > > 2019 Leave (BXP, UKIP) 34.9% > > > > > > > > > > Labour’s 2014 Manifesto > > > > > > > > > > http://www.maniffesto.com/documents/labour-european-election-manifesto-2014/ > > > > > > > > Yawn, adding up numbers in the way that suits you best is not going to change anything. For the extremists on both sides, if it is all about winning rather than governing, they will both think they are winning this morning, but neither side is, nor is the middle. > > > > > > > > The country is divided, as it has been and as it will be. We will have more paralysis and division until people accept facts and reality. > > > > Actually I agree with you. I don’t think either side is winning really, and the country is divided. I just thought it wrong that people on twitter considered Labour neutral in 2014 when they were pro EU and against a referendum, in order to exaggerate the LD & Green vote share improvements effect > > The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again. > > What we got was Mrs May.
The problem with that half-pregnant approach is that there is no consensus.
Labours policy change will come after the Peterborough by election . . Clearly they won’t want to say anything definitive before then but if Corbyn continues his fence sitting after that then he’s in big trouble .
> @williamglenn said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > > Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve. > ------------- > > But how will they deliver it? Quite apart from the Remainer faction, they need to convince the DUP to go through with something that any rational analysis suggests will make a united Ireland much more likely. > > The only way it looks possible for them to deliver No Deal is by winning an election, but an election could see them wiped out.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > > @algarkirk said: > > > > @DecrepitJohnL said: > > > > > > > Tory leadership candidates have a three-pipe problem. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > They can't revoke; they can't call a snap election; they can't give Theresa May's withdrawal agreement one last heave. They're f.cked. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Hunt at 12/1 maybe? The market looks wrong because the first three, Boris, Raab and Gove are all fishing in the same pond but perhaps wait and see is the best punting strategy right now. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Labour doesn't matter for the moment. > > > > > > > > > > > > Do what they should have done from the start - assume no deal and make any deal a bonus not a dealbreaker. > > > > > > > > > > > > If Hammond and Rudd support Jezza in a VONC then a GE with an arrangement with the Brexit party. > > > > > > > > > Too late. No leader will now take the risk of no deal, and EU can make it truly hard if they are mad enough to damage themselves and us; and the HoC would find a way to stop it. Not enough MPs want to vote for a GE and possible unemployment. Predict a Boris (or substitute Boris) Revoke and start again as serious possibility. > > > > > > As to what they say at the moment there is little point in taking any literal notice of it, any more than there was any point in paying attention to TM, Corbyn, manifestos or anything else. > > > > > > When does the moment come when we all realise that we would be out by now but for Tories wanting their perfect deal? > > > > You have it backwards. > > > > If Tory MPs and Members vote for a PM who is genuinely prepared to accept No Deal (as they should) then the HoC can't stop it short of voting for a GE by a VONC and possible unemployment. For the likes of Grieve etc who might be considering it they'd be voting for guaranteed unemployment. > > Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve.
Will the Scottish Tories vote to destroy the strong position built up locally with something so suicidal? I cant see it.
> @DavidL said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > @DavidL said: > > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > > @DavidL said: > > > > > > @bondegezou said: > > > > > > Is there a market on when the first Brexit Party MEP will leave the party? I can't see Claire Fox staying for long when Farage presents a full manifesto, or when she has to sit with right-wing partners in the European Parliament. > > > > > > > > > > Its not likely to be a problem. When we leave on 31st October (almost certainly with no deal/next to no deal now) they will be out of a job. Given the tendency of the Europeans to take August off there will be relatively few sittings for them to attend. > > > > > > > > Bold prediction. How do you think a no deal Prime Minister gets to take office and command a majority in the House of Commons? > > > > > > By winning the Tory Party leadership. Which they will. I think the DUP will favour no deal over the backstop. That would be enough. > > > > That will not be a majority. > > We'll soon find out. Remainer Tories will have some hard choices to make.
They will be sad choices but not hard choices. The idea that an ERG leader will have party unity and loyalty after their behaviour over the last 30 years is one of the bizarre but sweet misconceptions that brexiteer Tories seem to be making.
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @DavidL said: > > > @isam said: > > > > @isam said: > > > > > > > Remain vote is down 0.6% from 2014, Leave is up 5.8% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 2014 Remain (Lab, LD, Green, SNP, PC) 41% > > > > > > > 2019 Remain (LD, Green, SNP, PC) 40.4% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 2014 Leave (UKIP, BNP, AIFE) 29.1% > > > > > > > 2019 Leave (BXP, UKIP) 34.9% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Labour’s 2014 Manifesto > > > > > > > > > > > > > > http://www.maniffesto.com/documents/labour-european-election-manifesto-2014/ > > > > > > > > > > > > Yawn, adding up numbers in the way that suits you best is not going to change anything. For the extremists on both sides, if it is all about winning rather than governing, they will both think they are winning this morning, but neither side is, nor is the middle. > > > > > > > > > > > > The country is divided, as it has been and as it will be. We will have more paralysis and division until people accept facts and reality. > > > > > > Actually I agree with you. I don’t think either side is winning really, and the country is divided. I just thought it wrong that people on twitter considered Labour neutral in 2014 when they were pro EU and against a referendum, in order to exaggerate the LD & Green vote share improvements effect > > > > The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again. > > > > What we got was Mrs May. > > The problem with that half-pregnant approach is that there is no consensus.
With a different leader there could have been. But we had the most politically inept PM of my life time. Unfortunate.
> @DavidL said: > > @isam said: > > > @isam said: > > > > > Remain vote is down 0.6% from 2014, Leave is up 5.8% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 2014 Remain (Lab, LD, Green, SNP, PC) 41% > > > > > 2019 Remain (LD, Green, SNP, PC) 40.4% > > > > > > > > > > 2014 Leave (UKIP, BNP, AIFE) 29.1% > > > > > 2019 Leave (BXP, UKIP) 34.9% > > > > > > > > > > Labour’s 2014 Manifesto > > > > > > > > > > http://www.maniffesto.com/documents/labour-european-election-manifesto-2014/ > > > > > > > > Yawn, adding up numbers in the way that suits you best is not going to change anything. For the extremists on both sides, if it is all about winning rather than governing, they will both think they are winning this morning, but neither side is, nor is the middle. > > > > > > > > The country is divided, as it has been and as it will be. We will have more paralysis and division until people accept facts and reality. > > > > Actually I agree with you. I don’t think either side is winning really, and the country is divided. I just thought it wrong that people on twitter considered Labour neutral in 2014 when they were pro EU and against a referendum, in order to exaggerate the LD & Green vote share improvements effect > > The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again. > > What we got was Mrs May.
The people in the middle actually hold the keys to it. I remain convinced that a soft Brexit that is largely symbolic would command majority support in the country. Unfortunately, there is no way to get to that position.
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > > @isam said: > > > > > > > Remain vote is down 0.6% from 2014, Leave is up 5.8% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 2014 Remain (Lab, LD, Green, SNP, PC) 41% > > > > > > > 2019 Remain (LD, Green, SNP, PC) 40.4% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 2014 Leave (UKIP, BNP, AIFE) 29.1% > > > > > > > 2019 Leave (BXP, UKIP) 34.9% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Labour’s 2014 Manifesto > > > > > > > > > > > > > > http://www.maniffesto.com/documents/labour-european-election-manifesto-2014/ > > > > > > > > > > > > Yawn, adding up numbers in the way that suits you best is not going to change anything. For the extremists on both sides, if it is all about winning rather than governing, they will both think they are winning this morning, but neither side is, nor is the middle. > > > > > > > > > > > > The country is divided, as it has been and as it will be. We will have more paralysis and division until people accept facts and reality. > > > > > > Actually I agree with you. I don’t think either side is winning really, and the country is divided. I just thought it wrong that people on twitter considered Labour neutral in 2014 when they were pro EU and against a referendum, in order to exaggerate the LD & Green vote share improvements effect > > > > The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again. > > > > What we got was Mrs May. > > MPs should have just voted for her Deal.
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @DavidL said: > > > @isam said: > > > > @isam said: > > > > > > > Remain vote is down 0.6% from 2014, Leave is up 5.8% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 2014 Remain (Lab, LD, Green, SNP, PC) 41% > > > > > > > 2019 Remain (LD, Green, SNP, PC) 40.4% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 2014 Leave (UKIP, BNP, AIFE) 29.1% > > > > > > > 2019 Leave (BXP, UKIP) 34.9% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Labour’s 2014 Manifesto > > > > > > > > > > > > > > http://www.maniffesto.com/documents/labour-european-election-manifesto-2014/ > > > > > > > > > > > > Yawn, adding up numbers in the way that suits you best is not going to change anything. For the extremists on both sides, if it is all about winning rather than governing, they will both think they are winning this morning, but neither side is, nor is the middle. > > > > > > > > > > > > The country is divided, as it has been and as it will be. We will have more paralysis and division until people accept facts and reality. > > > > > > Actually I agree with you. I don’t think either side is winning really, and the country is divided. I just thought it wrong that people on twitter considered Labour neutral in 2014 when they were pro EU and against a referendum, in order to exaggerate the LD & Green vote share improvements effect > > > > The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again. > > > > What we got was Mrs May. > > The problem with that half-pregnant approach is that there is no consensus.
No leadership, no persuasion, no listening. A good leader could take us out of this mess, sadly I am not sure if there is anyone, let alone one who might actually be elected.
On thread: The total cumulative percentage error between the final poll and the actual GB result for the five largest parties (BRX, LD, Lab, Green and Con) was as follows for each pollster:
eg. IPSOS/Mori 6% (made up of 1% Lab, 3% BRX, 2% Green, 0% LD and Con)
IPSOS/Mori 6 You Gov 9 BMG 17 Number Cruncher Politics 21 Opinium 22 Panelbase 26 Survation 28 Kantar 28
Interestingly if some Pro EU Tories threaten to vote against the government will a new PM call their bluff or go for the least worst option of another vote to endorse a no deal.
> @DavidL said: > > The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again. > > What we got was Mrs May. ------------
The process of leaving was inevitably going to create a radicalised pro-Remain movement because it could not be done without confronting the reality that being outside the EU is against our national interest. Brexit is failing because it is a bad idea, not because Theresa May was a bad leader.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > You have it backwards. > > > > If Tory MPs and Members vote for a PM who is genuinely prepared to accept No Deal (as they should) then the HoC can't stop it short of voting for a GE by a VONC and possible unemployment. For the likes of Grieve etc who might be considering it they'd be voting for guaranteed unemployment. > > Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve.
You say that a No Deal Brexit currently enjoys minority support in the country, but that's moot. <b>All</b> positions currently enjoy minority support in the country.
It falls upon the government to govern and pick a choice from the available minority positions then make the best of it.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > The people in the middle actually hold the keys to it. I remain convinced that a soft Brexit that is largely symbolic would command majority support in the country. Unfortunately, there is no way to get to that position. -----------
There is no "largely symbolic" way to give up our place in the polity of the EU and vacate the institutions. It's binary.
> @Scott_P said: > They'll count down the clock. > > How? > > They can't prorogue Parliament if they are not PM, and they can't become PM if they don't command the confidence of the House...
I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would.
> The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again.
> What we got was Mrs May.
> MPs should have just voted for her Deal.
Yes. But she couldn't sell sex in a brothel.
I have always said, and still say now, that she shouldn't have to have had to sell it to anyone. The PM's deal with the EU should have been rubber stamped automatically and that would have been that. We would have established where we were, and the fighting at the margins recommenced.
> @DavidL said: > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > > @DavidL said: > > > > @isam said: > > > > > @isam said: > > > > > > > > > Remain vote is down 0.6% from 2014, Leave is up 5.8% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 2014 Remain (Lab, LD, Green, SNP, PC) 41% > > > > > > > > > 2019 Remain (LD, Green, SNP, PC) 40.4% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 2014 Leave (UKIP, BNP, AIFE) 29.1% > > > > > > > > > 2019 Leave (BXP, UKIP) 34.9% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Labour’s 2014 Manifesto > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > http://www.maniffesto.com/documents/labour-european-election-manifesto-2014/ > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Yawn, adding up numbers in the way that suits you best is not going to change anything. For the extremists on both sides, if it is all about winning rather than governing, they will both think they are winning this morning, but neither side is, nor is the middle. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The country is divided, as it has been and as it will be. We will have more paralysis and division until people accept facts and reality. > > > > > > > > Actually I agree with you. I don’t think either side is winning really, and the country is divided. I just thought it wrong that people on twitter considered Labour neutral in 2014 when they were pro EU and against a referendum, in order to exaggerate the LD & Green vote share improvements effect > > > > > > The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again. > > > > > > What we got was Mrs May. > > > > The problem with that half-pregnant approach is that there is no consensus. > > With a different leader there could have been. But we had the most politically inept PM of my life time. Unfortunate.
Your lifetime?
I would go further than that. May was the most inept since Lord North at the very least. No longer should 'worse since Eden' be the benchmark.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @DavidL said: > > > @isam said: > > > > @isam said: > > > > > > > Remain vote is down 0.6% from 2014, Leave is up 5.8% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 2014 Remain (Lab, LD, Green, SNP, PC) 41% > > > > > > > 2019 Remain (LD, Green, SNP, PC) 40.4% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 2014 Leave (UKIP, BNP, AIFE) 29.1% > > > > > > > 2019 Leave (BXP, UKIP) 34.9% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Labour’s 2014 Manifesto > > > > > > > > > > > > > > http://www.maniffesto.com/documents/labour-european-election-manifesto-2014/ > > > > > > > > > > > > Yawn, adding up numbers in the way that suits you best is not going to change anything. For the extremists on both sides, if it is all about winning rather than governing, they will both think they are winning this morning, but neither side is, nor is the middle. > > > > > > > > > > > > The country is divided, as it has been and as it will be. We will have more paralysis and division until people accept facts and reality. > > > > > > Actually I agree with you. I don’t think either side is winning really, and the country is divided. I just thought it wrong that people on twitter considered Labour neutral in 2014 when they were pro EU and against a referendum, in order to exaggerate the LD & Green vote share improvements effect > > > > The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again. > > > > What we got was Mrs May. > > The people in the middle actually hold the keys to it. I remain convinced that a soft Brexit that is largely symbolic would command majority support in the country. Unfortunately, there is no way to get to that position.
There was but we blew it. May too thrawn, Corbyn too stupid, Cable too old, all too late.
> > If Tory MPs and Members vote for a PM who is genuinely prepared to accept No Deal (as they should) then the HoC can't stop it short of voting for a GE by a VONC and possible unemployment. For the likes of Grieve etc who might be considering it they'd be voting for guaranteed unemployment.
>
> Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve.
You say that a No Deal Brexit currently enjoys minority support in the country, but that's moot. All positions currently enjoy minority support in the country.
It falls upon the government to govern and pick a choice from the available minority positions then make the best of it.
The only definite majority there has been since 2016 is to Leave.
> @nico67 said: > Interestingly if some Pro EU Tories threaten to vote against the government will a new PM call their bluff or go for the least worst option of another vote to endorse a no deal.
He/she will call their bluff because they will have boxed themselves in to be elected. What the pro EU Tories do then determines the next stage but they will have to give up the whip and their careers to vote it down. I don't think that they will (Grieve and maybe Clarke apart).
Does anyone have a handle on whether @BritainElects are widely unreliable.
The cocked up result they sent out for Bolsover (Lab 6% too low, Lib 7% too high etc) is helping form the narrative, due to that Dan Hewitt from ITV Tweet. Retweeted by several media-types - BBC, C4 etc.
Wonder if anyone is bashing Corby over the head with the false comparison.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @Scott_P said: > > They'll count down the clock. > > > > How? > > > > They can't prorogue Parliament if they are not PM, and they can't become PM if they don't command the confidence of the House... > > I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would.
Boles, Allen, Soubry, Wollaston, Jones (Newport West) plus six tories is enough switchers from the last VONC.
> @isam said: > > The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again. > > > What we got was Mrs May. > > > > MPs should have just voted for her Deal. > > > > Yes. But she couldn't sell sex in a brothel. > > I have always said, and still say now, that she shouldn't have to have had to sell it to anyone. The PM's deal with the EU should have been rubber stamped automatically and that would have been that. We would have established where we were, and the fighting at the margins recommenced.
It should have been a binary choice. We are leaving on 29 March, are we leaving with this deal or without any deal?
Instead the Commons thanks to Grieve managed to make it a three-way split and from there its been doomed. Nothing commands a majority in a three-way split.
> @nico67 said: > Interestingly if some Pro EU Tories threaten to vote against the government will a new PM call their bluff or go for the least worst option of another vote to endorse a no deal.
Call their bluff. They won't be able to stand as Tories in a GE although some would as a consequence jump ship or retire (e.g. Clarke). The Government would still probably fall and a GE probably follow but the Tories would be able to consolidate the pro-Brexit vote and put up a reasonable showing.
> @williamglenn said: > > @DavidL said: > > > > There was but we blew it. May too thrawn, Corbyn too stupid, Cable too old, all too late. > > It was blown before the referendum, not afterwards.
Disagree. May's deal was an acceptable compromise which left room for further choices by a subsequent Parliament.
> @DavidL said: > > @nico67 said: > > Interestingly if some Pro EU Tories threaten to vote against the government will a new PM call their bluff or go for the least worst option of another vote to endorse a no deal. > > He/she will call their bluff because they will have boxed themselves in to be elected. What the pro EU Tories do then determines the next stage but they will have to give up the whip and their careers to vote it down. I don't think that they will (Grieve and maybe Clarke apart).
Four left because they found Theresa May’s leadership too Brexity. The idea that only a couple of others will do everything they can to oppose no deal is sweet, especially since some are already on the record as saying that they will.
PD 36.08% 5 Stars 16.6% Lega 12.08% +Europa 10.04% Green Europe 9.52% Forza Italia 6.07% The Left 3.69% Fratelli d'Italia 2.53% Communist Party 0.99% Animal Party 0.53% Casapound 0.51% Popolari per l'Italia 0.49% Pirates 0.43% South Tyol Party 0.18% Forza Nuova 0.17% PPA 0.05% Autonomies for Europe 0 votes
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @DavidL said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > Interestingly if some Pro EU Tories threaten to vote against the government will a new PM call their bluff or go for the least worst option of another vote to endorse a no deal. > > > > He/she will call their bluff because they will have boxed themselves in to be elected. What the pro EU Tories do then determines the next stage but they will have to give up the whip and their careers to vote it down. I don't think that they will (Grieve and maybe Clarke apart). > > Four left because they found Theresa May’s leadership too Brexity. The idea that only a couple of others will do everything they can to oppose no deal is sweet, especially since some are already on the record as saying that they will.
> > The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again.
>
> > What we got was Mrs May.
>
>
> > MPs should have just voted for her Deal.
>
>
>
> Yes. But she couldn't sell sex in a brothel.
>
> I have always said, and still say now, that she shouldn't have to have had to sell it to anyone. The PM's deal with the EU should have been rubber stamped automatically and that would have been that. We would have established where we were, and the fighting at the margins recommenced.
It should have been a binary choice. We are leaving on 29 March, are we leaving with this deal or without any deal?
Instead the Commons thanks to Grieve managed to make it a three-way split and from there its been doomed. Nothing commands a majority in a three-way split.
Yes. That was the moment when the MPs overruled the public vote, and why we are in the mess we are now
> @Wulfrun_Phil said: > > @nico67 said: > > Interestingly if some Pro EU Tories threaten to vote against the government will a new PM call their bluff or go for the least worst option of another vote to endorse a no deal. > > Call their bluff. They won't be able to stand as Tories in a GE although some would as a consequence jump ship or retire (e.g. Clarke). The Government would still probably fall and a GE probably follow but the Tories would be able to consolidate the pro-Brexit vote and put up a reasonable showing.
> @Wulfrun_Phil said: > > @nico67 said: > > Interestingly if some Pro EU Tories threaten to vote against the government will a new PM call their bluff or go for the least worst option of another vote to endorse a no deal. > > Call their bluff. They won't be able to stand as Tories in a GE although some would as a consequence jump ship or retire (e.g. Clarke). The Government would still probably fall and a GE probably follow but the Tories would be able to consolidate the pro-Brexit vote and put up a reasonable showing.
Call their bluff, kick out Clarke, Hammond, Grieve, Gauke, Rudd, Heseltine et al, see how many more follow if they are pushed. The purity strategy has worked so well for Labour, why wouldnt the Tories follow it!!
> @DavidL said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > @DavidL said: > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > Interestingly if some Pro EU Tories threaten to vote against the government will a new PM call their bluff or go for the least worst option of another vote to endorse a no deal. > > > > > > He/she will call their bluff because they will have boxed themselves in to be elected. What the pro EU Tories do then determines the next stage but they will have to give up the whip and their careers to vote it down. I don't think that they will (Grieve and maybe Clarke apart). > > > > Four left because they found Theresa May’s leadership too Brexity. The idea that only a couple of others will do everything they can to oppose no deal is sweet, especially since some are already on the record as saying that they will. > > And you believe them? Politicians? > > Wow.
Politicians usually say what they mean, at least at the time that they say it. The problem is that too often their words are overinterpreted. The exceptions are notable.
> @isam said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > > > You have it backwards. > > > > > > > > If Tory MPs and Members vote for a PM who is genuinely prepared to accept No Deal (as they should) then the HoC can't stop it short of voting for a GE by a VONC and possible unemployment. For the likes of Grieve etc who might be considering it they'd be voting for guaranteed unemployment. > > > > > > Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve. > > > > You say that a No Deal Brexit currently enjoys minority support in the country, but that's moot. All positions currently enjoy minority support in the country. > > > > It falls upon the government to govern and pick a choice from the available minority positions then make the best of it. > > The only definite majority there has been since 2016 is to Leave.
And we shall never be allowed to vote to find another majority!
> @Scott_P said: > I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would. > > Tiny handful maybe enough
VONC isn't enough to stop Brexit though. It has to be done in time to hold the election and a new government prevents Brexit. Plus there's no guarantee under FPTP that Brexit supporters won't win the election.
If the election is between a hard Brexiteer leading the Tories, Corbyn still prevaricating and the Lib Dems etc there's every chance the Tories could win the election just as the BXP won last week's election.
> @isam said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > > > You have it backwards. > > > > > > > > If Tory MPs and Members vote for a PM who is genuinely prepared to accept No Deal (as they should) then the HoC can't stop it short of voting for a GE by a VONC and possible unemployment. For the likes of Grieve etc who might be considering it they'd be voting for guaranteed unemployment. > > > > > > Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve. > > You say that a No Deal Brexit currently enjoys minority support in the country, but that's moot. All positions currently enjoy minority support in the country. > > It falls upon the government to govern and pick a choice from the available minority positions then make the best of it. > > The only definite majority there has been since 2016 is to Leave.
Not even that. In the last 18 months every (?) survey has shown a lead for Remain over Leave.
fwiw I agree with those commenters who say that the anti-No Dealers will bring the govt down if the new PM settles for No Deal. If s/he doesn't pursue that course s/he will be at the mercy of the Brexit Party. So a cleft stick.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @isam said: > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > > > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > > > > > You have it backwards. > > > > > > > > > > > > If Tory MPs and Members vote for a PM who is genuinely prepared to accept No Deal (as they should) then the HoC can't stop it short of voting for a GE by a VONC and possible unemployment. For the likes of Grieve etc who might be considering it they'd be voting for guaranteed unemployment. > > > > > > > > > > Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve. > > > > > > > > You say that a No Deal Brexit currently enjoys minority support in the country, but that's moot. All positions currently enjoy minority support in the country. > > > > > > > > It falls upon the government to govern and pick a choice from the available minority positions then make the best of it. > > > > The only definite majority there has been since 2016 is to Leave. > > And we shall never be allowed to vote to find another majority!
There was a General Election in 2017 contested by parties wanting a second referendum. They lost.
There's another General Election due no later than 2022. If a party wanting another referendum wins that they can hold one.
> @williamglenn said: > > @DavidL said: > > > > The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again. > > > > What we got was Mrs May. > ------------ > > The process of leaving was inevitably going to create a radicalised pro-Remain movement because it could not be done without confronting the reality that being outside the EU is against our national interest. Brexit is failing because it is a bad idea, not because Theresa May was a bad leader.
------------------
To add precision, Brexit was predicated on a set of assumptions that were never likely to hold. And while May was incompetent, it didn't make any difference because another leader operating off the same assumptions would hit the same issues.
> @rottenborough said: > Raab on about changing the backstop. But the extension the UK was given specifically ruled out any reopening of the WA iirc. > > Have I missed something?
> @rottenborough said: > Raab on about changing the backstop. But the extension the UK was given specifically ruled out any reopening of the WA iirc. > > Have I missed something?
Yes. May's resignation.
The EU said at the time no renegotiation. They also said before that no extension without a firm reason (eg election or referndum) then gave one without a firm reason. Nothing is set in stone, the EU can change their minds, they already have previously.
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @Scott_P said: > > I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would. > > > > Tiny handful maybe enough > > VONC isn't enough to stop Brexit though. It has to be done in time to hold the election and a new government prevents Brexit. Plus there's no guarantee under FPTP that Brexit supporters won't win the election. > > If the election is between a hard Brexiteer leading the Tories, Corbyn still prevaricating and the Lib Dems etc there's every chance the Tories could win the election just as the BXP won last week's election.
You completely underestimate the desire of MPs to stop no deal Brexit. If necessary they will form a government of unity to do so. There is no need for an election if someone has the confidence of the house. In a scenario of no deal happening during a GE or appointing Clarke/Letwin/Benn PM they will appoint a PM to revoke before a GE.
If no dealers actually want to achieve no deal, rather than simply win the tory leadership then their best option is to start demanding a referendum with no deal on the table.
> @Dadge said: > > @isam said: > > The only definite majority there has been since 2016 is to Leave. > > Not even that. In the last 18 months every (?) survey has shown a lead for Remain over Leave. > > fwiw I agree with those commenters who say that the anti-No Dealers will bring the govt down if the new PM settles for No Deal. If s/he doesn't pursue that course s/he will be at the mercy of the Brexit Party. So a cleft stick.
Look at the thread header. Surveys said that the Labour Party was well in front of the Lib Dems. Surveys aren't votes and it is votes that matter and the votes said a majority for Leave in 2016 when it was asked. The votes in 2017 went against parties wanting a second referendum.
Agreed and it would be a good thing, just unsure whether LD activists will be happy with LD becoming a broad church centre party, even if that means real power. Are the activists more natural protesters than governors?
> @isam said: > "Any Other" out from 9.2 a week or so ago.. quite strange given last nights results for the big two.
Reflective, I feel, of an underperformance of the Brexit party *relative to the hype*. That's not me spinning - they've done very well - but that the hype was a bit too much.
> @isam said: > "Any Other" out from 9.2 a week or so ago.. quite strange given last nights results for the big two.
What's stranger is you can get more than 2.2 on both Tories and Labour. That has to be unprecedented surely?
Come the next General Election FPTP and changes between now and then will ensure its a Tory/Labour battle as always. Last week's referendum will ensure the Tories replace May with a Brexiteer which will largely shoot BXP's fox.
I know many Conservatives who voted BXP in order to get rid of May and her dreadful deal and to send a message on who should replace May.
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @Scott_P said: > > I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would. > > > > Tiny handful maybe enough > > VONC isn't enough to stop Brexit though. It has to be done in time to hold the election and a new government prevents Brexit. Plus there's no guarantee under FPTP that Brexit supporters won't win the election. > > If the election is between a hard Brexiteer leading the Tories, Corbyn still prevaricating and the Lib Dems etc there's every chance the Tories could win the election just as the BXP won last week's election.
Although the EU won't renegotiate the WA with the Tories, and therefore aren't predisposed to offer an A50 extension, I think it's a new game if we have a general election. In that case I'm pretty sure a further extension will be made, since there would be turmoil in the stock markets and elsewhere if Brexit coincided with a GE campaign.
The point about the dangers of a GE are well made. But it all depends on the role that Farage plays. If TBP stand, then the Right will be split just as much as the Left will be.
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > > You have it backwards. > > > > > > If Tory MPs and Members vote for a PM who is genuinely prepared to accept No Deal (as they should) then the HoC can't stop it short of voting for a GE by a VONC and possible unemployment. For the likes of Grieve etc who might be considering it they'd be voting for guaranteed unemployment. > > > > Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve. > > You say that a No Deal Brexit currently enjoys minority support in the country, but that's moot. <b>All</b> positions currently enjoy minority support in the country. > > It falls upon the government to govern and pick a choice from the available minority positions then make the best of it.
I agree. And, as I say, the Tories will choose No Deal. It will destroy them - and the Union. So be it, frankly. Like Johnson, Corbyn, Rees Mogg and the rest of the Brexit-backers, I am in the fortunate position of being able to look after my family and, if needs be, to get out!!
> > The only definite majority there has been since 2016 is to Leave.
>
> Not even that. In the last 18 months every (?) survey has shown a lead for Remain over Leave.
>
> fwiw I agree with those commenters who say that the anti-No Dealers will bring the govt down if the new PM settles for No Deal. If s/he doesn't pursue that course s/he will be at the mercy of the Brexit Party. So a cleft stick.
Look at the thread header. Surveys said that the Labour Party was well in front of the Lib Dems. Surveys aren't votes and it is votes that matter and the votes said a majority for Leave in 2016 when it was asked. The votes in 2017 went against parties wanting a second referendum.
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > Come the next General Election FPTP and changes between now and then will ensure its a Tory/Labour battle as always. Last week's referendum will ensure the Tories replace May with a Brexiteer which will largely shoot BXP's fox. > > I know many Conservatives who voted BXP in order to get rid of May and her dreadful deal and to send a message on who should replace May. -----------
Look at the massive swing from the Conservatives to the Lib Dems in places like Elmbridge. If the BXP fox is sitting on your foot, shooting it is a dangerous business.
@SouthamObserver said: . The people in the middle actually hold the keys to it. I remain convinced that a soft Brexit that is largely symbolic would command majority support in the country. Unfortunately, there is no way to get to that position.
---------------
Problem is, that "largely symbolic" Brexit requires the UK to substantially outsource its economic and trade policy to a party it's not a member of. That's a problem if you voted Leave to take control or Remain to be at the heart of Europe and the international system.
Having said that, I still think symbolism is the most likely eventual outcome. It will come at a very high price.
> Sarah Wollaston admitting that CUK screwed up. I wouldn't be surprised to see her and Heidi Allen end up in the Lib Dems sooner rather than later.
Agreed and it would be a good thing, just unsure whether LD activists will be happy with LD becoming a broad church centre party, even if that means real power. Are the activists more natural protesters than governors?
Depends on the MP. Allen and Wollaston would fit quite well in today's Lib Dems and I think they'd probably be welcomed. That doesn't hold for the ex-Labour CUKers or Soubry.
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @Scott_P said: > > I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would. > > > > Tiny handful maybe enough > > VONC isn't enough to stop Brexit though. It has to be done in time to hold the election and a new government prevents Brexit. Plus there's no guarantee under FPTP that Brexit supporters won't win the election. > > If the election is between a hard Brexiteer leading the Tories, Corbyn still prevaricating and the Lib Dems etc there's every chance the Tories could win the election just as the BXP won last week's election.
What's the likelihood that conference just takes the matter out of Corbyn's hands and puts Remain in the manifesto. I don't think he can prevaricate past September.
> @Pulpstar said: > @AlastairMeeks On No Deal Brexit > Steve Baker certainly means what he says > Dominic Raab probably intends to > Boris Johnson definitely doesn't.
Remainer Tories should all be hoping Boris wins - frankly the only candidate in position to try and make a sell out palatable. Every other route ends in no deal or Corbyn.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would. > > > > > > Tiny handful maybe enough > > > > VONC isn't enough to stop Brexit though. It has to be done in time to hold the election and a new government prevents Brexit. Plus there's no guarantee under FPTP that Brexit supporters won't win the election. > > > > If the election is between a hard Brexiteer leading the Tories, Corbyn still prevaricating and the Lib Dems etc there's every chance the Tories could win the election just as the BXP won last week's election. > > You completely underestimate the desire of MPs to stop no deal Brexit. If necessary they will form a government of unity to do so. There is no need for an election if someone has the confidence of the house. In a scenario of no deal happening during a GE or appointing Clarke/Letwin/Benn PM they will appoint a PM to revoke before a GE. > > If no dealers actually want to achieve no deal, rather than simply win the tory leadership then their best option is to start demanding a referendum with no deal on the table.
I don't believe that. To form a government of national unity you'd need some Tories to resign the whip to go against their own party (terminating their career) and ALL opposition parties to reject having an election and to agree a single MP to lead a government of unity.
But Corbyn won't back Clarke/Letwin, he wants an election to win himself. He won't agree to anyone else heading a government of unity since that denies him his own election he craves.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @dixiedean said: > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > For more than a decade now the risk that the Conservatives and Labour have had to manage has been that they will lose Eurosceptic/Leave voters to Farage's outfit. Now, for the first time, we can see that Europhile/Remain voters have been prepared to change their vote away from the big two to support other parties. > > > > > > That changes the balance of risks and shifts the centre of debate in a big way. The overall balance for Leave/Remain might be little changed, but the political consequences for positioning are now different. > > > > > > That's the biggest thing this election has changed. > > > > Indeed. Remainers are the insurgents now. > > Who are the personalities to take the LDs forward now? It is just Swinson and Moran? Their lack of MPs and senior MPs in particular will be big problem for them to take over the centre ground and manage a GE campaign. Farron and Cable are not the answer, Lamb is not bad, the rest are non descript. Are the likes of Hughes and Laws still involved?
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > > > You have it backwards. > > > > > > > > If Tory MPs and Members vote for a PM who is genuinely prepared to accept No Deal (as they should) then the HoC can't stop it short of voting for a GE by a VONC and possible unemployment. For the likes of Grieve etc who might be considering it they'd be voting for guaranteed unemployment. > > > > > > Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve. > > > > You say that a No Deal Brexit currently enjoys minority support in the country, but that's moot. <b>All</b> positions currently enjoy minority support in the country. > > > > It falls upon the government to govern and pick a choice from the available minority positions then make the best of it. > > I agree. And, as I say, the Tories will choose No Deal. It will destroy them - and the Union. So be it, frankly. Like Johnson, Corbyn, Rees Mogg and the rest of the Brexit-backers, I am in the fortunate position of being able to look after my family and, if needs be, to get out!!
The Tories have little choice but to back hard Brexit now, they will never win power as remainers, most likely they would disappear within 10 to 15 years. Their only hope is swallowing Farages party before it swallows them. Labour are now finished regardless, a new centre alliance that can distance itself from the stench of sandal is needed. Or, those Tories who can live with hard Brexit, probably 200, pull away and team up with Farage and win an enormous landslide. Grim
> @FF43 said: > @SouthamObserver said: > . > The people in the middle actually hold the keys to it. I remain convinced that a soft Brexit that is largely symbolic would command majority support in the country. Unfortunately, there is no way to get to that position. > > --------------- > > Problem is, that "largely symbolic" Brexit requires the UK to substantially outsource its economic and trade policy to a party it's not a member of. That's a problem if you voted Leave to take control or Remain to be at the heart of Europe and the international system. > > Having said that, I still think symbolism is the most likely eventual outcome. It will come at a very high price.
Of course the rational solution is to opt out of the political structures while remaining in the trading structures.
It's a measure of how dysfunctional our politics are that this is so hard to achieve - even though the failure to achieve it looks as though it may be fatal to one or both of the parties that currently dominate parliament.
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @isam said: > > "Any Other" out from 9.2 a week or so ago.. quite strange given last nights results for the big two. > > What's stranger is you can get more than 2.2 on both Tories and Labour. That has to be unprecedented surely? > > Come the next General Election FPTP and changes between now and then will ensure its a Tory/Labour battle as always. Last week's referendum will ensure the Tories replace May with a Brexiteer which will largely shoot BXP's fox. > > I know many Conservatives who voted BXP in order to get rid of May and her dreadful deal and to send a message on who should replace May.
I think this is somewhat wishful thinking. If the new Tory leader does not look like they will be able to deliver (Hard) Brexit, Farage will remain a thorn in their side. Boris, for example, sounds so far just like Theresa May did, and there is obviously no evidence yet that he will do any better than she has. The new leader will get a poll bounce, and many TBP voters will switch (back) to the Tories pro tem, but many of them would see an early GE as a sign of weakness/failure, as evidence that the new PM can't get a deal through, and roll back to Farage.
> @Barnesian said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @dixiedean said: > > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > For more than a decade now the risk that the Conservatives and Labour have had to manage has been that they will lose Eurosceptic/Leave voters to Farage's outfit. Now, for the first time, we can see that Europhile/Remain voters have been prepared to change their vote away from the big two to support other parties. > > > > > > > > That changes the balance of risks and shifts the centre of debate in a big way. The overall balance for Leave/Remain might be little changed, but the political consequences for positioning are now different. > > > > > > > > That's the biggest thing this election has changed. > > > > > > Indeed. Remainers are the insurgents now. > > > > Who are the personalities to take the LDs forward now? It is just Swinson and Moran? Their lack of MPs and senior MPs in particular will be big problem for them to take over the centre ground and manage a GE campaign. Farron and Cable are not the answer, Lamb is not bad, the rest are non descript. Are the likes of Hughes and Laws still involved? > > ************************************************************************************* > > The LibDems could do with Heidi, Anna and Sarah.
They need to consume and dominate Change, put forward a new identity and do a deal with the greens of some type. They got 21% last night, at best that's 50 seats in their current guise. A centre alliance might be the largest party if Farage is stopped
> @dyedwoolie said: > > The Tories have little choice but to back hard Brexit now, they will never win power as remainers, most likely they would disappear within 10 to 15 years. Their only hope is swallowing Farages party before it swallows them. Labour are now finished regardless, a new centre alliance that can distance itself from the stench of sandal is needed. > Or, those Tories who can live with hard Brexit, probably 200, pull away and team up with Farage and win an enormous landslide. > Grim ---------
As a hard Brexit party, the Tories would lose their core seats in the London commuter belt, but their brand is too toxic to win in the places that a hard Brexit message would appeal to.
He said: “I don’t accept the result of the election. I want a second vote.” He went on to claim “people had been lied to” before saying “I want to do it again”.
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @Scott_P said: > > I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would. > > > > Tiny handful maybe enough > > VONC isn't enough to stop Brexit though. It has to be done in time to hold the election and a new government prevents Brexit. Plus there's no guarantee under FPTP that Brexit supporters won't win the election. > > If the election is between a hard Brexiteer leading the Tories, Corbyn still prevaricating and the Lib Dems etc there's every chance the Tories could win the election just as the BXP won last week's election. *************************************************************************************
After a VONC, there are 14 days to find a PM who commands the confidence of the house in a vote of confidence. There may be sufficient MPs to give that confidence to someone who will ask the EU for an extension (which they will get in the circumstances) and then resign for a GE. The extension may be for four years of course. "Here you are. Don't come back bothering us until you've sorted yourself out".
> @williamglenn said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > The Tories have little choice but to back hard Brexit now, they will never win power as remainers, most likely they would disappear within 10 to 15 years. Their only hope is swallowing Farages party before it swallows them. Labour are now finished regardless, a new centre alliance that can distance itself from the stench of sandal is needed. > > Or, those Tories who can live with hard Brexit, probably 200, pull away and team up with Farage and win an enormous landslide. > > Grim > --------- > > As a hard Brexit party, the Tories would lose their core seats in the London commuter belt, but their brand is too toxic to win in the places that a hard Brexit message would appeal to.
Possibly - but FPTP is going to complicate matters considerably.
I would not like to predict who might be the largest party at the next election. Could be any one of four.
> @williamglenn said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > The Tories have little choice but to back hard Brexit now, they will never win power as remainers, most likely they would disappear within 10 to 15 years. Their only hope is swallowing Farages party before it swallows them. Labour are now finished regardless, a new centre alliance that can distance itself from the stench of sandal is needed. > > Or, those Tories who can live with hard Brexit, probably 200, pull away and team up with Farage and win an enormous landslide. > > Grim > --------- > > As a hard Brexit party, the Tories would lose their core seats in the London commuter belt, but their brand is too toxic to win in the places that a hard Brexit message would appeal to.
Then they are done. Like Labour. It's a Farage versus the centre alliance world with Scotland shearing off
> @Barnesian said: > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would. > > > > > > Tiny handful maybe enough > > > > VONC isn't enough to stop Brexit though. It has to be done in time to hold the election and a new government prevents Brexit. Plus there's no guarantee under FPTP that Brexit supporters won't win the election. > > > > If the election is between a hard Brexiteer leading the Tories, Corbyn still prevaricating and the Lib Dems etc there's every chance the Tories could win the election just as the BXP won last week's election. > ************************************************************************************* > > After a VONC, there are 14 days to find a PM who commands the confidence of the house in a vote of confidence. There may be sufficient MPs to give that confidence to someone who will ask the EU for an extension (which they will get in the circumstances) and then resign for a GE. The extension may be for four years of course. "Here you are. Don't come back bothering us until you've sorted yourself out".
Corbyn won't give confidence to anyone else and Corbyn won't resign if he gets in power.
Congrats to YouGov and Ipsos-Mori on their polls. The fact that TBP underperformed - ie. came up a few % short of their predictions - is good news for most of us, since it shows (I think) that there's a chunk of Brexiters who don't like voting.
On No Deal Brexit Steve Baker certainly means what he says Dominic Raab probably intends to Boris Johnson definitely doesn't.
Remainer Tories should all be hoping Boris wins - frankly the only candidate in position to try and make a sell out palatable. Every other route ends in no deal or Corbyn.
> @dyedwoolie said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > > The Tories have little choice but to back hard Brexit now, they will never win power as remainers, most likely they would disappear within 10 to 15 years. Their only hope is swallowing Farages party before it swallows them. Labour are now finished regardless, a new centre alliance that can distance itself from the stench of sandal is needed. > > > Or, those Tories who can live with hard Brexit, probably 200, pull away and team up with Farage and win an enormous landslide. > > > Grim > > --------- > > > > As a hard Brexit party, the Tories would lose their core seats in the London commuter belt, but their brand is too toxic to win in the places that a hard Brexit message would appeal to. > > Then they are done. Like Labour. It's a Farage versus the centre alliance world with Scotland shearing off
If Scotland shears off its easier for the Tories to win a majority of course.
Let's not forget that the Tories won a healthy majority of English seats last time.
> > > > For more than a decade now the risk that the Conservatives and Labour have had to manage has been that they will lose Eurosceptic/Leave voters to Farage's outfit. Now, for the first time, we can see that Europhile/Remain voters have been prepared to change their vote away from the big two to support other parties.
> > > >
> > > > That changes the balance of risks and shifts the centre of debate in a big way. The overall balance for Leave/Remain might be little changed, but the political consequences for positioning are now different.
> > > >
> > > > That's the biggest thing this election has changed.
> > >
> > > Indeed. Remainers are the insurgents now.
> >
> > Who are the personalities to take the LDs forward now? It is just Swinson and Moran? Their lack of MPs and senior MPs in particular will be big problem for them to take over the centre ground and manage a GE campaign. Farron and Cable are not the answer, Lamb is not bad, the rest are non descript. Are the likes of Hughes and Laws still involved?
> The LibDems could do with Heidi, Anna and Sarah.
They need to consume and dominate Change, put forward a new identity and do a deal with the greens of some type. They got 21% last night, at best that's 50 seats in their current guise. A centre alliance might be the largest party if Farage is stopped
Which is fine in theory, but whether it is achievable is one of the many imponderables. The next election could be very close, and parties tend to change policies and alliances rather slowly (which is Farage’s big advantage, as he is, for now, the party).
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @Scott_P said: > > They'll count down the clock. > > > > How? > > > > They can't prorogue Parliament if they are not PM, and they can't become PM if they don't command the confidence of the House... > > I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would.
The DUP are strongly against no deal Brexit and will almost certainly vote against a Government threatening to allow No Deal by running down the clock.
Comments
>
> Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve.
-------------
But how will they deliver it? Quite apart from the Remainer faction, they need to convince the DUP to go through with something that any rational analysis suggests will make a united Ireland much more likely.
The only way it looks possible for them to deliver No Deal is by winning an election, but an election could see them wiped out.
> > @isam said:
> > > @isam said:
> >
> > > Remain vote is down 0.6% from 2014, Leave is up 5.8%
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > 2014 Remain (Lab, LD, Green, SNP, PC) 41%
> >
> > > 2019 Remain (LD, Green, SNP, PC) 40.4%
> >
> > >
> >
> > > 2014 Leave (UKIP, BNP, AIFE) 29.1%
> >
> > > 2019 Leave (BXP, UKIP) 34.9%
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Labour’s 2014 Manifesto
> >
> > >
> >
> > > http://www.maniffesto.com/documents/labour-european-election-manifesto-2014/
> >
> >
> >
> > Yawn, adding up numbers in the way that suits you best is not going to change anything. For the extremists on both sides, if it is all about winning rather than governing, they will both think they are winning this morning, but neither side is, nor is the middle.
> >
> >
> >
> > The country is divided, as it has been and as it will be. We will have more paralysis and division until people accept facts and reality.
> >
> > Actually I agree with you. I don’t think either side is winning really, and the country is divided. I just thought it wrong that people on twitter considered Labour neutral in 2014 when they were pro EU and against a referendum, in order to exaggerate the LD & Green vote share improvements effect
>
> The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again.
>
> What we got was Mrs May.
The problem with that half-pregnant approach is that there is no consensus.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> >
> > Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve.
> -------------
>
> But how will they deliver it? Quite apart from the Remainer faction, they need to convince the DUP to go through with something that any rational analysis suggests will make a united Ireland much more likely.
>
> The only way it looks possible for them to deliver No Deal is by winning an election, but an election could see them wiped out.
They'll count down the clock.
> > @Philip_Thompson said:
> > > @algarkirk said:
> > > > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > >
> > > > Tory leadership candidates have a three-pipe problem.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > They can't revoke; they can't call a snap election; they can't give Theresa May's withdrawal agreement one last heave. They're f.cked.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Hunt at 12/1 maybe? The market looks wrong because the first three, Boris, Raab and Gove are all fishing in the same pond but perhaps wait and see is the best punting strategy right now.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Labour doesn't matter for the moment.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Do what they should have done from the start - assume no deal and make any deal a bonus not a dealbreaker.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > If Hammond and Rudd support Jezza in a VONC then a GE with an arrangement with the Brexit party.
> > >
> > >
> > > Too late. No leader will now take the risk of no deal, and EU can make it truly hard if they are mad enough to damage themselves and us; and the HoC would find a way to stop it. Not enough MPs want to vote for a GE and possible unemployment. Predict a Boris (or substitute Boris) Revoke and start again as serious possibility.
> > >
> > > As to what they say at the moment there is little point in taking any literal notice of it, any more than there was any point in paying attention to TM, Corbyn, manifestos or anything else.
> > >
> > > When does the moment come when we all realise that we would be out by now but for Tories wanting their perfect deal?
> >
> > You have it backwards.
> >
> > If Tory MPs and Members vote for a PM who is genuinely prepared to accept No Deal (as they should) then the HoC can't stop it short of voting for a GE by a VONC and possible unemployment. For the likes of Grieve etc who might be considering it they'd be voting for guaranteed unemployment.
>
> Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve.
Will the Scottish Tories vote to destroy the strong position built up locally with something so suicidal? I cant see it.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > @DavidL said:
> > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > > > @DavidL said:
> > > > > > @bondegezou said:
> > > > > > Is there a market on when the first Brexit Party MEP will leave the party? I can't see Claire Fox staying for long when Farage presents a full manifesto, or when she has to sit with right-wing partners in the European Parliament.
> > > > >
> > > > > Its not likely to be a problem. When we leave on 31st October (almost certainly with no deal/next to no deal now) they will be out of a job. Given the tendency of the Europeans to take August off there will be relatively few sittings for them to attend.
> > > >
> > > > Bold prediction. How do you think a no deal Prime Minister gets to take office and command a majority in the House of Commons?
> > >
> > > By winning the Tory Party leadership. Which they will. I think the DUP will favour no deal over the backstop. That would be enough.
> >
> > That will not be a majority.
>
> We'll soon find out. Remainer Tories will have some hard choices to make.
They will be sad choices but not hard choices. The idea that an ERG leader will have party unity and loyalty after their behaviour over the last 30 years is one of the bizarre but sweet misconceptions that brexiteer Tories seem to be making.
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > > @isam said:
> > >
> > > > Remain vote is down 0.6% from 2014, Leave is up 5.8%
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > 2014 Remain (Lab, LD, Green, SNP, PC) 41%
> > >
> > > > 2019 Remain (LD, Green, SNP, PC) 40.4%
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > 2014 Leave (UKIP, BNP, AIFE) 29.1%
> > >
> > > > 2019 Leave (BXP, UKIP) 34.9%
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Labour’s 2014 Manifesto
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > http://www.maniffesto.com/documents/labour-european-election-manifesto-2014/
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Yawn, adding up numbers in the way that suits you best is not going to change anything. For the extremists on both sides, if it is all about winning rather than governing, they will both think they are winning this morning, but neither side is, nor is the middle.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > The country is divided, as it has been and as it will be. We will have more paralysis and division until people accept facts and reality.
> > >
> > > Actually I agree with you. I don’t think either side is winning really, and the country is divided. I just thought it wrong that people on twitter considered Labour neutral in 2014 when they were pro EU and against a referendum, in order to exaggerate the LD & Green vote share improvements effect
> >
> > The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again.
> >
> > What we got was Mrs May.
>
> The problem with that half-pregnant approach is that there is no consensus.
With a different leader there could have been. But we had the most politically inept PM of my life time. Unfortunate.
They can't prorogue Parliament if they are not PM, and they can't become PM if they don't command the confidence of the House...
> > @isam said:
> > > @isam said:
> >
> > > Remain vote is down 0.6% from 2014, Leave is up 5.8%
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > 2014 Remain (Lab, LD, Green, SNP, PC) 41%
> >
> > > 2019 Remain (LD, Green, SNP, PC) 40.4%
> >
> > >
> >
> > > 2014 Leave (UKIP, BNP, AIFE) 29.1%
> >
> > > 2019 Leave (BXP, UKIP) 34.9%
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Labour’s 2014 Manifesto
> >
> > >
> >
> > > http://www.maniffesto.com/documents/labour-european-election-manifesto-2014/
> >
> >
> >
> > Yawn, adding up numbers in the way that suits you best is not going to change anything. For the extremists on both sides, if it is all about winning rather than governing, they will both think they are winning this morning, but neither side is, nor is the middle.
> >
> >
> >
> > The country is divided, as it has been and as it will be. We will have more paralysis and division until people accept facts and reality.
> >
> > Actually I agree with you. I don’t think either side is winning really, and the country is divided. I just thought it wrong that people on twitter considered Labour neutral in 2014 when they were pro EU and against a referendum, in order to exaggerate the LD & Green vote share improvements effect
>
> The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again.
>
> What we got was Mrs May.
The people in the middle actually hold the keys to it. I remain convinced that a soft Brexit that is largely symbolic would command majority support in the country. Unfortunately, there is no way to get to that position.
> > @isam said:
>
> > > @isam said:
>
> >
>
> > > Remain vote is down 0.6% from 2014, Leave is up 5.8%
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > 2014 Remain (Lab, LD, Green, SNP, PC) 41%
>
> >
>
> > > 2019 Remain (LD, Green, SNP, PC) 40.4%
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > 2014 Leave (UKIP, BNP, AIFE) 29.1%
>
> >
>
> > > 2019 Leave (BXP, UKIP) 34.9%
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Labour’s 2014 Manifesto
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > http://www.maniffesto.com/documents/labour-european-election-manifesto-2014/
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Yawn, adding up numbers in the way that suits you best is not going to change anything. For the extremists on both sides, if it is all about winning rather than governing, they will both think they are winning this morning, but neither side is, nor is the middle.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > The country is divided, as it has been and as it will be. We will have more paralysis and division until people accept facts and reality.
>
> >
>
> > Actually I agree with you. I don’t think either side is winning really, and the country is divided. I just thought it wrong that people on twitter considered Labour neutral in 2014 when they were pro EU and against a referendum, in order to exaggerate the LD & Green vote share improvements effect
>
>
>
> The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again.
>
>
>
> What we got was Mrs May.
>
> MPs should have just voted for her Deal.
Yes. But she couldn't sell sex in a brothel.
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > > @isam said:
> > >
> > > > Remain vote is down 0.6% from 2014, Leave is up 5.8%
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > 2014 Remain (Lab, LD, Green, SNP, PC) 41%
> > >
> > > > 2019 Remain (LD, Green, SNP, PC) 40.4%
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > 2014 Leave (UKIP, BNP, AIFE) 29.1%
> > >
> > > > 2019 Leave (BXP, UKIP) 34.9%
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Labour’s 2014 Manifesto
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > http://www.maniffesto.com/documents/labour-european-election-manifesto-2014/
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Yawn, adding up numbers in the way that suits you best is not going to change anything. For the extremists on both sides, if it is all about winning rather than governing, they will both think they are winning this morning, but neither side is, nor is the middle.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > The country is divided, as it has been and as it will be. We will have more paralysis and division until people accept facts and reality.
> > >
> > > Actually I agree with you. I don’t think either side is winning really, and the country is divided. I just thought it wrong that people on twitter considered Labour neutral in 2014 when they were pro EU and against a referendum, in order to exaggerate the LD & Green vote share improvements effect
> >
> > The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again.
> >
> > What we got was Mrs May.
>
> The problem with that half-pregnant approach is that there is no consensus.
No leadership, no persuasion, no listening. A good leader could take us out of this mess, sadly I am not sure if there is anyone, let alone one who might actually be elected.
The total cumulative percentage error between the final poll and the actual GB result for the five largest parties (BRX, LD, Lab, Green and Con) was as follows for each pollster:
eg. IPSOS/Mori 6% (made up of 1% Lab, 3% BRX, 2% Green, 0% LD and Con)
IPSOS/Mori 6
You Gov 9
BMG 17
Number Cruncher Politics 21
Opinium 22
Panelbase 26
Survation 28
Kantar 28
>
> The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again.
>
> What we got was Mrs May.
------------
The process of leaving was inevitably going to create a radicalised pro-Remain movement because it could not be done without confronting the reality that being outside the EU is against our national interest. Brexit is failing because it is a bad idea, not because Theresa May was a bad leader.
> > @Philip_Thompson said:
> > You have it backwards.
> >
> > If Tory MPs and Members vote for a PM who is genuinely prepared to accept No Deal (as they should) then the HoC can't stop it short of voting for a GE by a VONC and possible unemployment. For the likes of Grieve etc who might be considering it they'd be voting for guaranteed unemployment.
>
> Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve.
You say that a No Deal Brexit currently enjoys minority support in the country, but that's moot. <b>All</b> positions currently enjoy minority support in the country.
It falls upon the government to govern and pick a choice from the available minority positions then make the best of it.
>
> The people in the middle actually hold the keys to it. I remain convinced that a soft Brexit that is largely symbolic would command majority support in the country. Unfortunately, there is no way to get to that position.
-----------
There is no "largely symbolic" way to give up our place in the polity of the EU and vacate the institutions. It's binary.
> They'll count down the clock.
>
> How?
>
> They can't prorogue Parliament if they are not PM, and they can't become PM if they don't command the confidence of the House...
I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would.
> > @Philip_Thompson said:
> > > @DavidL said:
> > > > @isam said:
> > > > > @isam said:
> > > >
> > > > > Remain vote is down 0.6% from 2014, Leave is up 5.8%
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > 2014 Remain (Lab, LD, Green, SNP, PC) 41%
> > > >
> > > > > 2019 Remain (LD, Green, SNP, PC) 40.4%
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > 2014 Leave (UKIP, BNP, AIFE) 29.1%
> > > >
> > > > > 2019 Leave (BXP, UKIP) 34.9%
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Labour’s 2014 Manifesto
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > http://www.maniffesto.com/documents/labour-european-election-manifesto-2014/
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Yawn, adding up numbers in the way that suits you best is not going to change anything. For the extremists on both sides, if it is all about winning rather than governing, they will both think they are winning this morning, but neither side is, nor is the middle.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > The country is divided, as it has been and as it will be. We will have more paralysis and division until people accept facts and reality.
> > > >
> > > > Actually I agree with you. I don’t think either side is winning really, and the country is divided. I just thought it wrong that people on twitter considered Labour neutral in 2014 when they were pro EU and against a referendum, in order to exaggerate the LD & Green vote share improvements effect
> > >
> > > The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again.
> > >
> > > What we got was Mrs May.
> >
> > The problem with that half-pregnant approach is that there is no consensus.
>
> With a different leader there could have been. But we had the most politically inept PM of my life time. Unfortunate.
Your lifetime?
I would go further than that. May was the most inept since Lord North at the very least. No longer should 'worse since Eden' be the benchmark.
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > > @isam said:
> > >
> > > > Remain vote is down 0.6% from 2014, Leave is up 5.8%
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > 2014 Remain (Lab, LD, Green, SNP, PC) 41%
> > >
> > > > 2019 Remain (LD, Green, SNP, PC) 40.4%
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > 2014 Leave (UKIP, BNP, AIFE) 29.1%
> > >
> > > > 2019 Leave (BXP, UKIP) 34.9%
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Labour’s 2014 Manifesto
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > http://www.maniffesto.com/documents/labour-european-election-manifesto-2014/
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Yawn, adding up numbers in the way that suits you best is not going to change anything. For the extremists on both sides, if it is all about winning rather than governing, they will both think they are winning this morning, but neither side is, nor is the middle.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > The country is divided, as it has been and as it will be. We will have more paralysis and division until people accept facts and reality.
> > >
> > > Actually I agree with you. I don’t think either side is winning really, and the country is divided. I just thought it wrong that people on twitter considered Labour neutral in 2014 when they were pro EU and against a referendum, in order to exaggerate the LD & Green vote share improvements effect
> >
> > The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again.
> >
> > What we got was Mrs May.
>
> The people in the middle actually hold the keys to it. I remain convinced that a soft Brexit that is largely symbolic would command majority support in the country. Unfortunately, there is no way to get to that position.
There was but we blew it. May too thrawn, Corbyn too stupid, Cable too old, all too late.
>
> There was but we blew it. May too thrawn, Corbyn too stupid, Cable too old, all too late.
It was blown before the referendum, not afterwards.
> Interestingly if some Pro EU Tories threaten to vote against the government will a new PM call their bluff or go for the least worst option of another vote to endorse a no deal.
He/she will call their bluff because they will have boxed themselves in to be elected. What the pro EU Tories do then determines the next stage but they will have to give up the whip and their careers to vote it down. I don't think that they will (Grieve and maybe Clarke apart).
The cocked up result they sent out for Bolsover (Lab 6% too low, Lib 7% too high etc) is helping form the narrative, due to that Dan Hewitt from ITV Tweet. Retweeted by several media-types - BBC, C4 etc.
Wonder if anyone is bashing Corby over the head with the false comparison.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > They'll count down the clock.
> >
> > How?
> >
> > They can't prorogue Parliament if they are not PM, and they can't become PM if they don't command the confidence of the House...
>
> I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would.
Boles, Allen, Soubry, Wollaston, Jones (Newport West) plus six tories is enough switchers from the last VONC.
> > The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again.
>
> > What we got was Mrs May.
>
>
> > MPs should have just voted for her Deal.
>
>
>
> Yes. But she couldn't sell sex in a brothel.
>
> I have always said, and still say now, that she shouldn't have to have had to sell it to anyone. The PM's deal with the EU should have been rubber stamped automatically and that would have been that. We would have established where we were, and the fighting at the margins recommenced.
It should have been a binary choice. We are leaving on 29 March, are we leaving with this deal or without any deal?
Instead the Commons thanks to Grieve managed to make it a three-way split and from there its been doomed. Nothing commands a majority in a three-way split.
ie 40% of the 37% that bothered to vote
> Interestingly if some Pro EU Tories threaten to vote against the government will a new PM call their bluff or go for the least worst option of another vote to endorse a no deal.
Call their bluff. They won't be able to stand as Tories in a GE although some would as a consequence jump ship or retire (e.g. Clarke). The Government would still probably fall and a GE probably follow but the Tories would be able to consolidate the pro-Brexit vote and put up a reasonable showing.
> > @DavidL said:
> >
> > There was but we blew it. May too thrawn, Corbyn too stupid, Cable too old, all too late.
>
> It was blown before the referendum, not afterwards.
Disagree. May's deal was an acceptable compromise which left room for further choices by a subsequent Parliament.
> 15% voted for a 2nd referendum
>
> ie 40% of the 37% that bothered to vote
If you can't be arsed to vote, you're OK with any choice others who can be arsed make for you.
> > @nico67 said:
> > Interestingly if some Pro EU Tories threaten to vote against the government will a new PM call their bluff or go for the least worst option of another vote to endorse a no deal.
>
> He/she will call their bluff because they will have boxed themselves in to be elected. What the pro EU Tories do then determines the next stage but they will have to give up the whip and their careers to vote it down. I don't think that they will (Grieve and maybe Clarke apart).
Four left because they found Theresa May’s leadership too Brexity. The idea that only a couple of others will do everything they can to oppose no deal is sweet, especially since some are already on the record as saying that they will.
PD 36.08%
5 Stars 16.6%
Lega 12.08%
+Europa 10.04%
Green Europe 9.52%
Forza Italia 6.07%
The Left 3.69%
Fratelli d'Italia 2.53%
Communist Party 0.99%
Animal Party 0.53%
Casapound 0.51%
Popolari per l'Italia 0.49%
Pirates 0.43%
South Tyol Party 0.18%
Forza Nuova 0.17%
PPA 0.05%
Autonomies for Europe 0 votes
blank: 65
spoilt 885
challenged 2
total voters 17,448
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > Interestingly if some Pro EU Tories threaten to vote against the government will a new PM call their bluff or go for the least worst option of another vote to endorse a no deal.
> >
> > He/she will call their bluff because they will have boxed themselves in to be elected. What the pro EU Tories do then determines the next stage but they will have to give up the whip and their careers to vote it down. I don't think that they will (Grieve and maybe Clarke apart).
>
> Four left because they found Theresa May’s leadership too Brexity. The idea that only a couple of others will do everything they can to oppose no deal is sweet, especially since some are already on the record as saying that they will.
And you believe them? Politicians?
Wow.
And failed.
> > @nico67 said:
> > Interestingly if some Pro EU Tories threaten to vote against the government will a new PM call their bluff or go for the least worst option of another vote to endorse a no deal.
>
> Call their bluff. They won't be able to stand as Tories in a GE although some would as a consequence jump ship or retire (e.g. Clarke). The Government would still probably fall and a GE probably follow but the Tories would be able to consolidate the pro-Brexit vote and put up a reasonable showing.
> @Wulfrun_Phil said:
> > @nico67 said:
> > Interestingly if some Pro EU Tories threaten to vote against the government will a new PM call their bluff or go for the least worst option of another vote to endorse a no deal.
>
> Call their bluff. They won't be able to stand as Tories in a GE although some would as a consequence jump ship or retire (e.g. Clarke). The Government would still probably fall and a GE probably follow but the Tories would be able to consolidate the pro-Brexit vote and put up a reasonable showing.
Call their bluff, kick out Clarke, Hammond, Grieve, Gauke, Rudd, Heseltine et al, see how many more follow if they are pushed. The purity strategy has worked so well for Labour, why wouldnt the Tories follow it!!
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > @DavidL said:
> > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > Interestingly if some Pro EU Tories threaten to vote against the government will a new PM call their bluff or go for the least worst option of another vote to endorse a no deal.
> > >
> > > He/she will call their bluff because they will have boxed themselves in to be elected. What the pro EU Tories do then determines the next stage but they will have to give up the whip and their careers to vote it down. I don't think that they will (Grieve and maybe Clarke apart).
> >
> > Four left because they found Theresa May’s leadership too Brexity. The idea that only a couple of others will do everything they can to oppose no deal is sweet, especially since some are already on the record as saying that they will.
>
> And you believe them? Politicians?
>
> Wow.
Politicians usually say what they mean, at least at the time that they say it. The problem is that too often their words are overinterpreted. The exceptions are notable.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
>
> > > @Philip_Thompson said:
>
> > > You have it backwards.
>
> > >
>
> > > If Tory MPs and Members vote for a PM who is genuinely prepared to accept No Deal (as they should) then the HoC can't stop it short of voting for a GE by a VONC and possible unemployment. For the likes of Grieve etc who might be considering it they'd be voting for guaranteed unemployment.
>
> >
>
> > Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve.
>
>
>
> You say that a No Deal Brexit currently enjoys minority support in the country, but that's moot. All positions currently enjoy minority support in the country.
>
>
>
> It falls upon the government to govern and pick a choice from the available minority positions then make the best of it.
>
> The only definite majority there has been since 2016 is to Leave.
And we shall never be allowed to vote to find another majority!
> I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would.
>
> Tiny handful maybe enough
VONC isn't enough to stop Brexit though. It has to be done in time to hold the election and a new government prevents Brexit. Plus there's no guarantee under FPTP that Brexit supporters won't win the election.
If the election is between a hard Brexiteer leading the Tories, Corbyn still prevaricating and the Lib Dems etc there's every chance the Tories could win the election just as the BXP won last week's election.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
>
> > > @Philip_Thompson said:
>
> > > You have it backwards.
>
> > >
>
> > > If Tory MPs and Members vote for a PM who is genuinely prepared to accept No Deal (as they should) then the HoC can't stop it short of voting for a GE by a VONC and possible unemployment. For the likes of Grieve etc who might be considering it they'd be voting for guaranteed unemployment.
>
> >
>
> > Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve.
>
> You say that a No Deal Brexit currently enjoys minority support in the country, but that's moot. All positions currently enjoy minority support in the country.
>
> It falls upon the government to govern and pick a choice from the available minority positions then make the best of it.
>
> The only definite majority there has been since 2016 is to Leave.
Not even that. In the last 18 months every (?) survey has shown a lead for Remain over Leave.
fwiw I agree with those commenters who say that the anti-No Dealers will bring the govt down if the new PM settles for No Deal. If s/he doesn't pursue that course s/he will be at the mercy of the Brexit Party. So a cleft stick.
> > @isam said:
> > > @SouthamObserver said:
> >
> > > > @Philip_Thompson said:
> >
> > > > You have it backwards.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > If Tory MPs and Members vote for a PM who is genuinely prepared to accept No Deal (as they should) then the HoC can't stop it short of voting for a GE by a VONC and possible unemployment. For the likes of Grieve etc who might be considering it they'd be voting for guaranteed unemployment.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve.
> >
> >
> >
> > You say that a No Deal Brexit currently enjoys minority support in the country, but that's moot. All positions currently enjoy minority support in the country.
> >
> >
> >
> > It falls upon the government to govern and pick a choice from the available minority positions then make the best of it.
> >
> > The only definite majority there has been since 2016 is to Leave.
>
> And we shall never be allowed to vote to find another majority!
There was a General Election in 2017 contested by parties wanting a second referendum. They lost.
There's another General Election due no later than 2022. If a party wanting another referendum wins that they can hold one.
Have I missed something?
> > @DavidL said:
> >
> > The people losing are the one's in the middle. What we needed was political leadership that could have brought both sides together for a consensus soft Brexit which would have left us with good relations with the EU and a choice for subsequent generations who could either go their own way or cosy up to the EU once again.
> >
> > What we got was Mrs May.
> ------------
>
> The process of leaving was inevitably going to create a radicalised pro-Remain movement because it could not be done without confronting the reality that being outside the EU is against our national interest. Brexit is failing because it is a bad idea, not because Theresa May was a bad leader.
------------------
To add precision, Brexit was predicated on a set of assumptions that were never likely to hold. And while May was incompetent, it didn't make any difference because another leader operating off the same assumptions would hit the same issues.
> Raab on about changing the backstop. But the extension the UK was given specifically ruled out any reopening of the WA iirc.
>
> Have I missed something?
Nope. They're doomed. We're doomed.
Steve Baker certainly means what he says
Dominic Raab probably intends to
Boris Johnson definitely doesn't.
> Raab on about changing the backstop. But the extension the UK was given specifically ruled out any reopening of the WA iirc.
>
> Have I missed something?
Yes. May's resignation.
The EU said at the time no renegotiation. They also said before that no extension without a firm reason (eg election or referndum) then gave one without a firm reason. Nothing is set in stone, the EU can change their minds, they already have previously.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would.
> >
> > Tiny handful maybe enough
>
> VONC isn't enough to stop Brexit though. It has to be done in time to hold the election and a new government prevents Brexit. Plus there's no guarantee under FPTP that Brexit supporters won't win the election.
>
> If the election is between a hard Brexiteer leading the Tories, Corbyn still prevaricating and the Lib Dems etc there's every chance the Tories could win the election just as the BXP won last week's election.
You completely underestimate the desire of MPs to stop no deal Brexit. If necessary they will form a government of unity to do so. There is no need for an election if someone has the confidence of the house. In a scenario of no deal happening during a GE or appointing Clarke/Letwin/Benn PM they will appoint a PM to revoke before a GE.
If no dealers actually want to achieve no deal, rather than simply win the tory leadership then their best option is to start demanding a referendum with no deal on the table.
> > @isam said:
> > The only definite majority there has been since 2016 is to Leave.
>
> Not even that. In the last 18 months every (?) survey has shown a lead for Remain over Leave.
>
> fwiw I agree with those commenters who say that the anti-No Dealers will bring the govt down if the new PM settles for No Deal. If s/he doesn't pursue that course s/he will be at the mercy of the Brexit Party. So a cleft stick.
Look at the thread header. Surveys said that the Labour Party was well in front of the Lib Dems. Surveys aren't votes and it is votes that matter and the votes said a majority for Leave in 2016 when it was asked. The votes in 2017 went against parties wanting a second referendum.
https://twitter.com/sarahwollaston/status/1132942571024592896
> https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1132968863052836864
So there would have needed to be 8 seats before Labour got a bite. Every different way you look at the results for Labour in Scotland, it's damning.
> Sarah Wollaston admitting that CUK screwed up. I wouldn't be surprised to see her and Heidi Allen end up in the Lib Dems sooner rather than later.
>
> https://twitter.com/sarahwollaston/status/1132942571024592896
Agreed and it would be a good thing, just unsure whether LD activists will be happy with LD becoming a broad church centre party, even if that means real power. Are the activists more natural protesters than governors?
> "Any Other" out from 9.2 a week or so ago.. quite strange given last nights results for the big two.
Reflective, I feel, of an underperformance of the Brexit party *relative to the hype*. That's not me spinning - they've done very well - but that the hype was a bit too much.
> "Any Other" out from 9.2 a week or so ago.. quite strange given last nights results for the big two.
What's stranger is you can get more than 2.2 on both Tories and Labour. That has to be unprecedented surely?
Come the next General Election FPTP and changes between now and then will ensure its a Tory/Labour battle as always. Last week's referendum will ensure the Tories replace May with a Brexiteer which will largely shoot BXP's fox.
I know many Conservatives who voted BXP in order to get rid of May and her dreadful deal and to send a message on who should replace May.
> https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1132956063836319745
>
>
What's he doing in Moscow.? Collecting more Russian donations for the cause of Cats?
https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1132957778727841793
> > @Scott_P said:
> > I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would.
> >
> > Tiny handful maybe enough
>
> VONC isn't enough to stop Brexit though. It has to be done in time to hold the election and a new government prevents Brexit. Plus there's no guarantee under FPTP that Brexit supporters won't win the election.
>
> If the election is between a hard Brexiteer leading the Tories, Corbyn still prevaricating and the Lib Dems etc there's every chance the Tories could win the election just as the BXP won last week's election.
Although the EU won't renegotiate the WA with the Tories, and therefore aren't predisposed to offer an A50 extension, I think it's a new game if we have a general election. In that case I'm pretty sure a further extension will be made, since there would be turmoil in the stock markets and elsewhere if Brexit coincided with a GE campaign.
The point about the dangers of a GE are well made. But it all depends on the role that Farage plays. If TBP stand, then the Right will be split just as much as the Left will be.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > @Philip_Thompson said:
> > > You have it backwards.
> > >
> > > If Tory MPs and Members vote for a PM who is genuinely prepared to accept No Deal (as they should) then the HoC can't stop it short of voting for a GE by a VONC and possible unemployment. For the likes of Grieve etc who might be considering it they'd be voting for guaranteed unemployment.
> >
> > Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve.
>
> You say that a No Deal Brexit currently enjoys minority support in the country, but that's moot. <b>All</b> positions currently enjoy minority support in the country.
>
> It falls upon the government to govern and pick a choice from the available minority positions then make the best of it.
I agree. And, as I say, the Tories will choose No Deal. It will destroy them - and the Union. So be it, frankly. Like Johnson, Corbyn, Rees Mogg and the rest of the Brexit-backers, I am in the fortunate position of being able to look after my family and, if needs be, to get out!!
>
> Come the next General Election FPTP and changes between now and then will ensure its a Tory/Labour battle as always. Last week's referendum will ensure the Tories replace May with a Brexiteer which will largely shoot BXP's fox.
>
> I know many Conservatives who voted BXP in order to get rid of May and her dreadful deal and to send a message on who should replace May.
-----------
Look at the massive swing from the Conservatives to the Lib Dems in places like Elmbridge. If the BXP fox is sitting on your foot, shooting it is a dangerous business.
.
The people in the middle actually hold the keys to it. I remain convinced that a soft Brexit that is largely symbolic would command majority support in the country. Unfortunately, there is no way to get to that position.
---------------
Problem is, that "largely symbolic" Brexit requires the UK to substantially outsource its economic and trade policy to a party it's not a member of. That's a problem if you voted Leave to take control or Remain to be at the heart of Europe and the international system.
Having said that, I still think symbolism is the most likely eventual outcome. It will come at a very high price.
https://twitter.com/EveningStandard/status/1132964622787665920
> > @Scott_P said:
> > I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would.
> >
> > Tiny handful maybe enough
>
> VONC isn't enough to stop Brexit though. It has to be done in time to hold the election and a new government prevents Brexit. Plus there's no guarantee under FPTP that Brexit supporters won't win the election.
>
> If the election is between a hard Brexiteer leading the Tories, Corbyn still prevaricating and the Lib Dems etc there's every chance the Tories could win the election just as the BXP won last week's election.
What's the likelihood that conference just takes the matter out of Corbyn's hands and puts Remain in the manifesto. I don't think he can prevaricate past September.
> @AlastairMeeks On No Deal Brexit
> Steve Baker certainly means what he says
> Dominic Raab probably intends to
> Boris Johnson definitely doesn't.
Remainer Tories should all be hoping Boris wins - frankly the only candidate in position to try and make a sell out palatable. Every other route ends in no deal or Corbyn.
> > @Philip_Thompson said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would.
> > >
> > > Tiny handful maybe enough
> >
> > VONC isn't enough to stop Brexit though. It has to be done in time to hold the election and a new government prevents Brexit. Plus there's no guarantee under FPTP that Brexit supporters won't win the election.
> >
> > If the election is between a hard Brexiteer leading the Tories, Corbyn still prevaricating and the Lib Dems etc there's every chance the Tories could win the election just as the BXP won last week's election.
>
> You completely underestimate the desire of MPs to stop no deal Brexit. If necessary they will form a government of unity to do so. There is no need for an election if someone has the confidence of the house. In a scenario of no deal happening during a GE or appointing Clarke/Letwin/Benn PM they will appoint a PM to revoke before a GE.
>
> If no dealers actually want to achieve no deal, rather than simply win the tory leadership then their best option is to start demanding a referendum with no deal on the table.
I don't believe that. To form a government of national unity you'd need some Tories to resign the whip to go against their own party (terminating their career) and ALL opposition parties to reject having an election and to agree a single MP to lead a government of unity.
But Corbyn won't back Clarke/Letwin, he wants an election to win himself. He won't agree to anyone else heading a government of unity since that denies him his own election he craves.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > For more than a decade now the risk that the Conservatives and Labour have had to manage has been that they will lose Eurosceptic/Leave voters to Farage's outfit. Now, for the first time, we can see that Europhile/Remain voters have been prepared to change their vote away from the big two to support other parties.
> > >
> > > That changes the balance of risks and shifts the centre of debate in a big way. The overall balance for Leave/Remain might be little changed, but the political consequences for positioning are now different.
> > >
> > > That's the biggest thing this election has changed.
> >
> > Indeed. Remainers are the insurgents now.
>
> Who are the personalities to take the LDs forward now? It is just Swinson and Moran? Their lack of MPs and senior MPs in particular will be big problem for them to take over the centre ground and manage a GE campaign. Farron and Cable are not the answer, Lamb is not bad, the rest are non descript. Are the likes of Hughes and Laws still involved?
*************************************************************************************
The LibDems could do with Heidi, Anna and Sarah.
> > @Philip_Thompson said:
> > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > > @Philip_Thompson said:
> > > > You have it backwards.
> > > >
> > > > If Tory MPs and Members vote for a PM who is genuinely prepared to accept No Deal (as they should) then the HoC can't stop it short of voting for a GE by a VONC and possible unemployment. For the likes of Grieve etc who might be considering it they'd be voting for guaranteed unemployment.
> > >
> > > Grieve will be voting to resume a very lucrative legal career. However, I suspect you are right: the Tories will deliver a No Deal Brexit that currently enjoys minority support in the country. That will destroy them. Which is the least they will deserve.
> >
> > You say that a No Deal Brexit currently enjoys minority support in the country, but that's moot. <b>All</b> positions currently enjoy minority support in the country.
> >
> > It falls upon the government to govern and pick a choice from the available minority positions then make the best of it.
>
> I agree. And, as I say, the Tories will choose No Deal. It will destroy them - and the Union. So be it, frankly. Like Johnson, Corbyn, Rees Mogg and the rest of the Brexit-backers, I am in the fortunate position of being able to look after my family and, if needs be, to get out!!
The Tories have little choice but to back hard Brexit now, they will never win power as remainers, most likely they would disappear within 10 to 15 years. Their only hope is swallowing Farages party before it swallows them. Labour are now finished regardless, a new centre alliance that can distance itself from the stench of sandal is needed.
Or, those Tories who can live with hard Brexit, probably 200, pull away and team up with Farage and win an enormous landslide.
Grim
> @SouthamObserver said:
> .
> The people in the middle actually hold the keys to it. I remain convinced that a soft Brexit that is largely symbolic would command majority support in the country. Unfortunately, there is no way to get to that position.
>
> ---------------
>
> Problem is, that "largely symbolic" Brexit requires the UK to substantially outsource its economic and trade policy to a party it's not a member of. That's a problem if you voted Leave to take control or Remain to be at the heart of Europe and the international system.
>
> Having said that, I still think symbolism is the most likely eventual outcome. It will come at a very high price.
Of course the rational solution is to opt out of the political structures while remaining in the trading structures.
It's a measure of how dysfunctional our politics are that this is so hard to achieve - even though the failure to achieve it looks as though it may be fatal to one or both of the parties that currently dominate parliament.
> > @isam said:
> > "Any Other" out from 9.2 a week or so ago.. quite strange given last nights results for the big two.
>
> What's stranger is you can get more than 2.2 on both Tories and Labour. That has to be unprecedented surely?
>
> Come the next General Election FPTP and changes between now and then will ensure its a Tory/Labour battle as always. Last week's referendum will ensure the Tories replace May with a Brexiteer which will largely shoot BXP's fox.
>
> I know many Conservatives who voted BXP in order to get rid of May and her dreadful deal and to send a message on who should replace May.
I think this is somewhat wishful thinking. If the new Tory leader does not look like they will be able to deliver (Hard) Brexit, Farage will remain a thorn in their side. Boris, for example, sounds so far just like Theresa May did, and there is obviously no evidence yet that he will do any better than she has. The new leader will get a poll bounce, and many TBP voters will switch (back) to the Tories pro tem, but many of them would see an early GE as a sign of weakness/failure, as evidence that the new PM can't get a deal through, and roll back to Farage.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> > > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > > For more than a decade now the risk that the Conservatives and Labour have had to manage has been that they will lose Eurosceptic/Leave voters to Farage's outfit. Now, for the first time, we can see that Europhile/Remain voters have been prepared to change their vote away from the big two to support other parties.
> > > >
> > > > That changes the balance of risks and shifts the centre of debate in a big way. The overall balance for Leave/Remain might be little changed, but the political consequences for positioning are now different.
> > > >
> > > > That's the biggest thing this election has changed.
> > >
> > > Indeed. Remainers are the insurgents now.
> >
> > Who are the personalities to take the LDs forward now? It is just Swinson and Moran? Their lack of MPs and senior MPs in particular will be big problem for them to take over the centre ground and manage a GE campaign. Farron and Cable are not the answer, Lamb is not bad, the rest are non descript. Are the likes of Hughes and Laws still involved?
>
> *************************************************************************************
>
> The LibDems could do with Heidi, Anna and Sarah.
They need to consume and dominate Change, put forward a new identity and do a deal with the greens of some type. They got 21% last night, at best that's 50 seats in their current guise. A centre alliance might be the largest party if Farage is stopped
>
> The Tories have little choice but to back hard Brexit now, they will never win power as remainers, most likely they would disappear within 10 to 15 years. Their only hope is swallowing Farages party before it swallows them. Labour are now finished regardless, a new centre alliance that can distance itself from the stench of sandal is needed.
> Or, those Tories who can live with hard Brexit, probably 200, pull away and team up with Farage and win an enormous landslide.
> Grim
---------
As a hard Brexit party, the Tories would lose their core seats in the London commuter belt, but their brand is too toxic to win in the places that a hard Brexit message would appeal to.
> https://twitter.com/jennirsl/status/1132943056456560641
Huh? Do Jock votes not count?
> Sarah Wollaston admitting that CUK screwed up. I wouldn't be surprised to see her and Heidi Allen end up in the Lib Dems sooner rather than later.
>
> https://twitter.com/sarahwollaston/status/1132942571024592896
Rather farcical to blame FPTP when last week's election was held under PR and they won zero seats under PR.
The problem is they didn't win votes, not how the votes were counted.
> Contemplating: The Brexit Party choosing George Gallaway as their candidate in Peterborough.
The party of Annunziata Rees Mogg and George Galloway. Dystopian.
He said: “I don’t accept the result of the election. I want a second vote.”
He went on to claim “people had been lied to” before saying “I want to do it again”.
> "Any Other" out from 9.2 a week or so ago.. quite strange given last nights results for the big two.
Presumably that's because the Lib Dems have come in after doing better than expected last night.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would.
> >
> > Tiny handful maybe enough
>
> VONC isn't enough to stop Brexit though. It has to be done in time to hold the election and a new government prevents Brexit. Plus there's no guarantee under FPTP that Brexit supporters won't win the election.
>
> If the election is between a hard Brexiteer leading the Tories, Corbyn still prevaricating and the Lib Dems etc there's every chance the Tories could win the election just as the BXP won last week's election.
*************************************************************************************
After a VONC, there are 14 days to find a PM who commands the confidence of the house in a vote of confidence. There may be sufficient MPs to give that confidence to someone who will ask the EU for an extension (which they will get in the circumstances) and then resign for a GE. The extension may be for four years of course. "Here you are. Don't come back bothering us until you've sorted yourself out".
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> >
> > The Tories have little choice but to back hard Brexit now, they will never win power as remainers, most likely they would disappear within 10 to 15 years. Their only hope is swallowing Farages party before it swallows them. Labour are now finished regardless, a new centre alliance that can distance itself from the stench of sandal is needed.
> > Or, those Tories who can live with hard Brexit, probably 200, pull away and team up with Farage and win an enormous landslide.
> > Grim
> ---------
>
> As a hard Brexit party, the Tories would lose their core seats in the London commuter belt, but their brand is too toxic to win in the places that a hard Brexit message would appeal to.
Possibly - but FPTP is going to complicate matters considerably.
I would not like to predict who might be the largest party at the next election. Could be any one of four.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> >
> > The Tories have little choice but to back hard Brexit now, they will never win power as remainers, most likely they would disappear within 10 to 15 years. Their only hope is swallowing Farages party before it swallows them. Labour are now finished regardless, a new centre alliance that can distance itself from the stench of sandal is needed.
> > Or, those Tories who can live with hard Brexit, probably 200, pull away and team up with Farage and win an enormous landslide.
> > Grim
> ---------
>
> As a hard Brexit party, the Tories would lose their core seats in the London commuter belt, but their brand is too toxic to win in the places that a hard Brexit message would appeal to.
Then they are done. Like Labour. It's a Farage versus the centre alliance world with Scotland shearing off
> > @Philip_Thompson said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would.
> > >
> > > Tiny handful maybe enough
> >
> > VONC isn't enough to stop Brexit though. It has to be done in time to hold the election and a new government prevents Brexit. Plus there's no guarantee under FPTP that Brexit supporters won't win the election.
> >
> > If the election is between a hard Brexiteer leading the Tories, Corbyn still prevaricating and the Lib Dems etc there's every chance the Tories could win the election just as the BXP won last week's election.
> *************************************************************************************
>
> After a VONC, there are 14 days to find a PM who commands the confidence of the house in a vote of confidence. There may be sufficient MPs to give that confidence to someone who will ask the EU for an extension (which they will get in the circumstances) and then resign for a GE. The extension may be for four years of course. "Here you are. Don't come back bothering us until you've sorted yourself out".
Corbyn won't give confidence to anyone else and Corbyn won't resign if he gets in power.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > >
> > > The Tories have little choice but to back hard Brexit now, they will never win power as remainers, most likely they would disappear within 10 to 15 years. Their only hope is swallowing Farages party before it swallows them. Labour are now finished regardless, a new centre alliance that can distance itself from the stench of sandal is needed.
> > > Or, those Tories who can live with hard Brexit, probably 200, pull away and team up with Farage and win an enormous landslide.
> > > Grim
> > ---------
> >
> > As a hard Brexit party, the Tories would lose their core seats in the London commuter belt, but their brand is too toxic to win in the places that a hard Brexit message would appeal to.
>
> Then they are done. Like Labour. It's a Farage versus the centre alliance world with Scotland shearing off
If Scotland shears off its easier for the Tories to win a majority of course.
Let's not forget that the Tories won a healthy majority of English seats last time.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > They'll count down the clock.
> >
> > How?
> >
> > They can't prorogue Parliament if they are not PM, and they can't become PM if they don't command the confidence of the House...
>
> I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would.
The DUP are strongly against no deal Brexit and will almost certainly vote against a Government threatening to allow No Deal by running down the clock.