> @Pulpstar said: > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > #5 was matched at 20.0 for the PvDA. The only match. > > > > They can be thankful the price of their idiocy is only £95 > > What price do you think the PvDA should have been at ?
It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
> My mum, slightly against my expectations, tells me that she went ahead and spoiled her ballot paper. She thinks that both my sisters and brothers in law have done the same.
>
> Those are five normally rock solid Conservative voters.
I wanted to do that but chickened out. It felt childish.
So I very reluctantly voted Conservative, and then immediately regretted it.
> @Pulpstar said: > Went independent Network, weirdly thought about voting both Green or Brexit party more than the Tories to be honest. > > Both Nige and the greens have compelling narratives this election. > > Change UK's lack of a logo is going to kill them - could well benefit the Lib Dems.
I saw one house in my town with five change UK posters. Like 5 multicoloured supermarket barcodes.
> @MaxPB said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > My mum, slightly against my expectations, tells me that she went ahead and spoiled her ballot paper. She thinks that both my sisters and brothers in law have done the same. > > > > > > Those are five normally rock solid Conservative voters. > > > > I wanted to do that but chickened out. It felt childish. > > > > So I very reluctantly voted Conservative, and then immediately regretted it. > > I found it oddly liberating.
> @Byronic said: > FWIW In my very Remainer west London suburb, the polling booth was noticeably busy when I voted about an hour ago. Much busier than for locals. > > Good for LDs and Green?
I expect turnout to be higher in very Remain areas.
> @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > #5 was matched at 20.0 for the PvDA. The only match. > > > > > > They can be thankful the price of their idiocy is only £95 > > > > What price do you think the PvDA should have been at ? > > A party 2pp behind the leader? 10/1?
I think 10-1 would have been a fair price. You'll need VVD and FvD to make up perhaps 60% of the book being the two consistent leaders so giving 10% to CDA, GL and PvDA with the rags making up the remainder perhaps about right.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory. > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
Yikes.... if I've got to pick between any of those in a two-horse race, I'll definitely be drawing in a cock and balls on my members vote! then promptly cutting up my card (which handily is a wishy washy cardboard thing)
> It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
>
> JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
Yikes.... if I've got to pick between any of those in a two-horse race, I'll definitely be drawing in a cock and balls on my members vote! then promptly cutting up my card (which handily is a wishy washy cardboard thing)
Depressing ain't it?
Good news. Sunday will see a thread by me calling Mark Reckless all sorts of names.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory. > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed.
There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory. > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
You voted LD at the last general election if I recall when the Tories got 42%, you voted Tory today when the Tories will be lucky to get much more than 10% but of course these things go in cycles and a rightwinger or at least a Brexiteer is likely to win the Tory leadership to succeed May for the first time since Michael Howard
Could pro-Remain parties support be underestimated by the pollsters?
Listening to the podcast it seems Remainers were less committed to any one Remain party than hard-leavers were to TBP. I am just wondering how the pollsters dealt with this.
For example, I was >99% certain to vote, and to vote for a Remain party, but if a pollster had asked me I'd have said 50% certain to vote LD, 20% Green, 20% CUK, 10% Labour (e.g. if they'd made a last minute commitment to a 2nd Ref). Can't help thinking my preference would have been dismissed in the final analysis.
> It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
>
> JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
You voted LD at the last general election if I recall when the Tories got 42%, you voted Tory today when the Tories will be lucky to get much more than 10% but of course these things go in cycles and a rightwinger or at least a Brexiteer is likely to win the Tory leadership to succeed May for the first time since Michael Howard
> > I’m still uncomfortable with this desire to sack people who you disagree with. It’s attempting to silence and intimidate opponents > > It is the way of the world. > > I shed no tears for the woman who was sacked for wishing Farage had been milkshaked with acid.<
++++
Yes, that was appalling. An outright incitement of awful violence. And she worked for a charity, happily emblazoned on her Twitter account.
No coming back from that.
Danny Baker I felt much more sorry for. I do not for a minute believe he is racist. But why did he even think that tweet was acceptable? I find it hard to believe 1. he didn't know the royal baby was mixed race, and 2. he didn't realise that monkeys/races as a meme are REALLY NOT GOOD
Perhaps it was a tiny fragment of his Millwall supporting id, re-emerging. I hope - after he's done his porridge - he gets another job. He doesn't deserve a lifetime of contrition. And I am not a supporter of Labour and Corbyn (and he is).
An even more pointless polling station anecdote than most coming up.
I was about during peak voting time - 6-8:00pm. It's solid leave around here especially the rural workers, or ex-workers mainly, who for some reason blame the EU for the demise of the orchards and market gardens that used to provide a lot of employment. The remainers are the ones who work in the towns round about. It seemed to be mainly them who were making the trip to the town hall where the booths are.
Probably means nothing, but then not many of these stories do.
Sources on the Tories’ powerful 1922 committee said they expected her to stay in place until June 10 meaning she would still be in No 10 for the state visit of US President Donald Trump.
The contest to elect the next Tory leader would kick off the same day, with Mrs May staying in place as a caretaker leader.
Under that timetable, a new PM could be in place before the Commons breaks up for the summer at the end of July.
But some Tory MPs speculated that she could go immediately, handing over the keys to No 10 to her de facto deputy David Lidington.
> @Black_Rook said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory. > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since. > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed. > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for.
By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed.
Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway
Turnout at about 8 am this morning was about 6-7% at a guess.
Remainers in the household all abstained - 'wouldn't know who to vote for' and 'what's the election about?' - this is in two cases c.30 year olds who are active social media users and clearly Remainers.
In work, topic briefly raised by four 20-30 year old females - no idea of their vote inclinations - 'I wouldn't know who to vote for', 'it annoys me that they only turn up when there is an election'.
It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
> I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this.
>
> A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”.
>
> In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole.
>
> The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.”
>
> As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man.
I've never missed a vote in 30 years and never even considered voting anything other than Conservative
I'm a current Conservative Party member, former area vice chairman and former parliamentary candidate.
After much deliberation I went into the polling station still reluctantly going to vote Conservative but when it got to putting the X in the box I voted Brexit.
I will never support any other party and am still a Conservative, however I am so sick of Theresa May and the remainers in the parliamentary party thinking they know better than the public than I just couldn't support them on this occasion.
I don't think that we should read anything into these results as I'm sure most true Conservatives like myself will return to the party fold from now on, but this was a unique opportunity to express my displeasure without any consequences (since the elected MEP's are not likely to take their seats for any significant period of time).
> @williamglenn said: > If Conservative ballot-spoilers are a bigger factor than anticipated, perhaps the Brexit Party is being overestimated.
Pollsters might have been better prompting specifically for "spoil your ballot paper" instead of just hoping people who planned to draw a cock on it would choose "don't know / won't vote / won't say".
The media seem desperate to big up a far right rise in the EU and avoid talking about other things going on .
The big narrative after the Spanish election was Vox who scored a massive 11% !
The rise of the Greens in Germany has been news avoided like the plague . No ones disputing that far right parties will do well but there seems little balance in the coverage .
> @Black_Rook said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory. > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since. > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed. > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for.
If Brexit isn't resolved there's no way this parliament limps on until 2022. The government will either collapse like a house of cards, or endure death by a thousand cuts, but either way it won't survive. There's too much pressure applied, particularly near Brexit deadlines, and they're already badly weakened.
I could only see it limping along till 2022 if some of that pressure was vented and the withdrawal agreement somehow snuck over the line, May exited stage left, the talks with Europe and the future relationship then went on quietly in the background and the political discussion returned temporarily to domestic matters, but I don't see that happening and even then the new Tory leader will still be thinking about a GE.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory. > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since. <
++++
Francois and Jenkyns are not candidates for the leadership. The two favourites (Johnson, Raab) might be unacceptably Brexity in your eyes, but they are also much more socially liberal than, say, the departing ex PM Teresa May.
e.g. I would expect Boris to change the law on students and migration numbers on the day he takes the job (IF he gets the job).
In many ways Boris or Raab are closer to your political perspective than May, I suspect (I am only guessing, and also looking on the bright side).
I will never support any other party and am still a Conservative, however I am so sick of Theresa May and the remainers in the parliamentary party thinking they know better than the public than I just couldn't support them on this occasion.
That’s because they do know better. The public hasn’t got a f*cking clue about the consequences of anything to do with Brexit.
It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Black_Rook said: > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory. > > > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since. > > > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed. > > > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for. > > By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed. > > Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway
You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is.
Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings
> @Recidivist said: > An even more pointless polling station anecdote than most coming up. > > I was about during peak voting time - 6-8:00pm. It's solid leave around here especially the rural workers, or ex-workers mainly, who for some reason blame the EU for the demise of the orchards and market gardens that used to provide a lot of employment. The remainers are the ones who work in the towns round about. It seemed to be mainly them who were making the trip to the town hall where the booths are. > > Probably means nothing, but then not many of these stories do.
So between 6 and 8pm you saw lots of people with jobs voting, but pensioners were curiously absent? Some should run a study in to the causes of this phenomenon.
> > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
> > >
> > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
> >
> > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed.
> >
> > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for.
>
> By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed.
>
> Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway
You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is.
Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings
Well said Big_G.
@HUYFD you seem to be overlooking the possibility of a VoNC as a way of stopping No Deal.
Sources on the Tories’ powerful 1922 committee said they expected her to stay in place until June 10 meaning she would still be in No 10 for the state visit of US President Donald Trump.
The contest to elect the next Tory leader would kick off the same day, with Mrs May staying in place as a caretaker leader.
Under that timetable, a new PM could be in place before the Commons breaks up for the summer at the end of July.
But some Tory MPs speculated that she could go immediately, handing over the keys to No 10 to her de facto deputy David Lidington.
Reading through the thread, it seems there is a lot of wishful thinking here, particularly from remainers.
I suspect it's largely an echo chamber effect, i.e. All my friends are voting Lib Dem and all the people I follow on Twitter are, too! etc.
FWIW, I think the polls will be fairly accurate. For the reason that I can't name a soul either here or IRL who has changed their opinion on whether to leave/remain.
Polling has Brex + Con + Ukip at around 47% of the vote and that sounds about right. Add another 2-3% of support from Brexiteers who are sticking with the arch equivocators, Labour, and that adds up to a country split squarely down the middle. A clarion call for a "People's" Vote it is not. But neither is it a breakthrough for Diamond Hard Brexit.
To borrow the phrase that has defined the last couple of years, "Nothing Has Changed."
The country is still split down the middle. Nobody has any answers. Nobody is reaching out to the other side.
> @Gallowgate said: > I will never support any other party and am still a Conservative, however I am so sick of Theresa May and the remainers in the parliamentary party thinking they know better than the public than I just couldn't support them on this occasion. > > That’s because they do know better. The public hasn’t got a f*cking clue about the consequences of anything to do with Brexit.
Ah, I see you're a supporter of democracy, if you don't like Brexit you should move to China, they share your attitude there!
> @Gallowgate said: > I will never support any other party and am still a Conservative, however I am so sick of Theresa May and the remainers in the parliamentary party thinking they know better than the public than I just couldn't support them on this occasion. > > That’s because they do know better. The public hasn’t got a f*cking clue about the consequences of anything to do with Brexit.
True . What I’m sick of is the mantra that Leavers all knew what they were voting for . Considering after the ref a poll showed a wide range of views , from staying in the single market , some were still happy with freedom of movement , some wanted Norway .
Now the vote has been hijacked by the no deal death cult .
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > Sources on the Tories’ powerful 1922 committee said they expected her to stay in place until June 10 meaning she would still be in No 10 for the state visit of US President Donald Trump. > > The contest to elect the next Tory leader would kick off the same day, with Mrs May staying in place as a caretaker leader. > > Under that timetable, a new PM could be in place before the Commons breaks up for the summer at the end of July. > > But some Tory MPs speculated that she could go immediately, handing over the keys to No 10 to her de facto deputy David Lidington. > > https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-set-finally-quit-avoid-16191553
She'll do her duty and stay on as PM until the new Con leader is decided.
Just returned from casting an entirely negative vote. One other voter coming in as I left. Poll clerk said "steady". Looked slightly more names crossed off than when I voted at the locals. (However, that was only for mayor, not councils, so had a poor turnout). FWIW.
* Good news 1: The trailer for Star Trek: Picard is out. * Good news 2: Ziva David is back in NCIS * Bad news: I assume this is the last UK participation in the EP elections. I will miss it...
> @Benpointer said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory. > > > > > > > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since. > > > > > > > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed. > > > > > > > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for. > > > > > > By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed. > > > > > > Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway > > > > You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is. > > > > Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings > > Well said Big_G. > > @HUYFD you seem to be overlooking the possibility of a VoNC as a way of stopping No Deal.
In that case if said new PM really wanted to get No Deal, they could prorogue parliament.
> @nico67 said: > The media seem desperate to big up a far right rise in the EU and avoid talking about other things going on . > > The big narrative after the Spanish election was Vox who scored a massive 11% ! > > The rise of the Greens in Germany has been news avoided like the plague . No ones disputing that far right parties will do well but there seems little balance in the coverage .
To some extent true, the only countries the nationalist right leads in are Italy and France and Hungary and Poland and the UK if you include the Brexit Party in that category. They will be up elsewhere but so will the Greens and in most countries either the main centre right or centre left party will still win (or possibly the liberal En Marche in France)
Not a HUGE fan of George Osborne (tho he would have made a much better premier than T May), but if any journalist in Fleet Street is well connected in Tory circles, it is him. So that sounds kosher, and reliable. And it makes sense.
I pity - again - poor Teresa. My God, what will that State Visit with Trump be like? He openly despises "losers". She is the epitome of a loser. And she has to host him??
If I were Philip May, I would advise her to step down this weekend, and get a caretaker. The humiliation is not worth the extra two weeks of power. It really is not.
Not a HUGE fan of George Osborne (tho he would have made a much better premier than T May), but if any journalist in Fleet Street is well connected in Tory circles, it is him. So that sounds kosher, and reliable. And it makes sense.
I pity - again - poor Teresa. My God, what will that State Visit with Trump be like? He openly despises "losers". She is the epitome of a loser. And she has to host him??
If I were Philip May, I would advise her to step down this weekend, and get a caretaker. The humiliation is not worth the extra two weeks of power. It really is not.
It isn't, especially once Labour MPs from Leave seats realise it is likely now either the WA or No Deal and they cannot risk voting for Revoke given the rise of the Brexit Party in their constituencies
T> @maaarsh said: > > @Benpointer said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since. > > > > > > > > > > > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed. > > > > > > > > > > > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for. > > > > > > > > > > By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed. > > > > > > > > > > Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway > > > > > > > > You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is. > > > > > > > > Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings > > > > Well said Big_G. > > > > @HUYFD you seem to be overlooking the possibility of a VoNC as a way of stopping No Deal. > > In that case if said new PM really wanted to get No Deal, they could prorogue parliament.
Has the UK now turned into a dictatorship . If a PM did that once it would set an awful precedent .
> @Alistair said: > Turnout anecdote from the constituencies former MSP > > https://twitter.com/MarcoGBiagi/status/1131629298417373185 > > > > Edinburgh turnout at the 2014 euros was 41.6%, Scotland turnout was 33%. > > 2016 Edinburgh Central turnout was 57.3% > > That's... Big. Very good for the greens in Scotland.
Surely in Ruth Davidson's constituency it'll be votes for the Ruth Davidson party to send a message to Wee Nippy & the EssEnnPee?
> @Benpointer said: > Fwiw Opinium with their last EP poll had a Westminster VI; > > Lab 26% (-3) > Brx 25% (+1) > Con 22% (NC) > Lib 12% (+1) > SNP 4% (NC) > Grn 4% (+1) > UKIP 2% (NC) > CUK 2% (-1) > Plaid 1% (+1) > > 17-20 May > > https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-17th-may-2019/ > > Total nonsense of course but would make for an interesting parliament... > > Cue HYUFD plugging the figures into Election Calculus and telling us Nige will be PM leading a rainbow coalition or somesuch.
Reading through the thread, it seems there is a lot of wishful thinking here, particularly from remainers.
I suspect it's largely an echo chamber effect, i.e. All my friends are voting Lib Dem and all the people I follow on Twitter are, too! etc.
FWIW, I think the polls will be fairly accurate. For the reason that I can't name a soul either here or IRL who has changed their opinion on whether to leave/remain.
Polling has Brex + Con + Ukip at around 47% of the vote and that sounds about right. Add another 2-3% of support from Brexiteers who are sticking with the arch equivocators, Labour, and that adds up to a country split squarely down the middle. A clarion call for a "People's" Vote it is not. But neither is it a breakthrough for Diamond Hard Brexit.
To borrow the phrase that has defined the last couple of years, "Nothing Has Changed."
The country is still split down the middle. Nobody has any answers. Nobody is reaching out to the other side.
> @Theuniondivvie said: > > @Alistair said: > > Turnout anecdote from the constituencies former MSP > > > > https://twitter.com/MarcoGBiagi/status/1131629298417373185 > > > > > > > > Edinburgh turnout at the 2014 euros was 41.6%, Scotland turnout was 33%. > > > > 2016 Edinburgh Central turnout was 57.3% > > > > That's... Big. Very good for the greens in Scotland. > > > Surely in Ruth Davidson's constituency it'll be votes for the Ruth Davidson party to send a message to Wee Nippy & the EssEnnPee?
> @Byronic said: > > @Scott_P said: > > https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1131631187066314752<; > > > ++++ > > Not a HUGE fan of George Osborne (tho he would have made a much better premier than T May), but if any journalist in Fleet Street is well connected in Tory circles, it is him. So that sounds kosher, and reliable. And it makes sense. > > I pity - again - poor Teresa. My God, what will that State Visit with Trump be like? He openly despises "losers". She is the epitome of a loser. And she has to host him?? > > If I were Philip May, I would advise her to step down this weekend, and get a caretaker. The humiliation is not worth the extra two weeks of power. It really is not.
29/5 is when Theresa May overtakes Gordon Brown. This is said to mean a lot.
> @maaarsh said: > > @Benpointer said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since. > > > > > > > > > > > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed. > > > > > > > > > > > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for. > > > > > > > > > > By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed. > > > > > > > > > > Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway > > > > > > > > You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is. > > > > > > > > Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings > > > > Well said Big_G. > > > > @HUYFD you seem to be overlooking the possibility of a VoNC as a way of stopping No Deal. > > In that case if said new PM really wanted to get No Deal, they could prorogue parliament.
Yet more rubbish from HY. The EU is already expecting a further extension (see recent interview with Junker) and there won’t be any French veto.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory. > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since. > > Shall we send you a Lib Dem application form? > > No thank you.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1131659386768777219 > > > > > > Still time for the Withdrawal Agreement vote then > > > > It is over and the WDA with it > > It isn't, especially once Labour MPs from Leave seats realise it is likely now either the WA or No Deal and they cannot risk voting for Revoke given the rise of the Brexit Party in their constituencies
It is over - it will not see the light of day.
With respect it, maybe, is time for you to see the light
> @kyf_100 said: > Reading through the thread, it seems there is a lot of wishful thinking here, particularly from remainers. > > I suspect it's largely an echo chamber effect, i.e. All my friends are voting Lib Dem and all the people I follow on Twitter are, too! etc. > > FWIW, I think the polls will be fairly accurate. For the reason that I can't name a soul either here or IRL who has changed their opinion on whether to leave/remain. > > Polling has Brex + Con + Ukip at around 47% of the vote and that sounds about right. Add another 2-3% of support from Brexiteers who are sticking with the arch equivocators, Labour, and that adds up to a country split squarely down the middle. A clarion call for a "People's" Vote it is not. But neither is it a breakthrough for Diamond Hard Brexit. > > To borrow the phrase that has defined the last couple of years, "Nothing Has Changed." > > The country is still split down the middle. Nobody has any answers. Nobody is reaching out to the other side.
> @Byronic said: > > @Scott_P said: > > https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1131631187066314752<; > > > ++++ > > Not a HUGE fan of George Osborne (tho he would have made a much better premier than T May), but if any journalist in Fleet Street is well connected in Tory circles, it is him. So that sounds kosher, and reliable. And it makes sense. > > I pity - again - poor Teresa. My God, what will that State Visit with Trump be like? He openly despises "losers". She is the epitome of a loser. And she has to host him?? > > If I were Philip May, I would advise her to step down this weekend, and get a caretaker. The humiliation is not worth the extra two weeks of power. It really is not.
You can imagine Donald telling her she should have took his advice on how to deal with the EU.
Estimated 50% turnout in our very Remainy small town. We regularly have the highest turnout in the district so that's a plausible ceiling.
A more rural ward a few miles away, and certainly less Remainy, is looking like 20%.
As a few posters have commented, this is looking like a remarkably polarised election. Good news for the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems, bad news for the Conservatives and Labour.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory. > > > > > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since. > > > > > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed. > > > > > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for. > > > > By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed. > > > > Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway > > You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is. > > Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings
We do, Macron will veto further extension and it will be No Deal under a new Tory PM if the WA has not passed by then. The only way to stop it would be Tory MPs like Grieve voting to make Corbyn PM to try and force a further extension and if Macron has vetoed a revoke vote
> @solarflare said: > If Brexit isn't resolved there's no way this parliament limps on until 2022. The government will either collapse like a house of cards, or endure death by a thousand cuts, but either way it won't survive. There's too much pressure applied, particularly near Brexit deadlines, and they're already badly weakened. > > I could only see it limping along till 2022 if some of that pressure was vented and the withdrawal agreement somehow snuck over the line, May exited stage left, the talks with Europe and the future relationship then went on quietly in the background and the political discussion returned temporarily to domestic matters, but I don't see that happening and even then the new Tory leader will still be thinking about a GE.
The government doesn't just explode from too much pressure though. A specific thing has to happen:
1) PM calls an election, and opposition agrees. But if the government is badly weakened, the PM won't call an election they would lose 2) DUP pulls the plug. Why? They're still getting paid 3) Some Con MPs bolt. But it's career suicide, and all their friends and colleagues will hate them. Could happen but needs severe provocation by the PM, who will generally choose not to provoke 4) Enough Con MPs die or get long prison sentences that Con+DUP isn't enough. But MPs are healthier and more careful than they used to be, and minibuses are built tough
> @Benpointer said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory. > > > > > > > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since. > > > > > > > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed. > > > > > > > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for. > > > > > > By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed. > > > > > > Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway > > > > You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is. > > > > Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings > > Well said Big_G. > > @HUYFD you seem to be overlooking the possibility of a VoNC as a way of stopping No Deal. That is not impossible but would require Tory MPs to vote for it and to make Corbyn PM
I wouldn't be surprised if TM steps down from the Commons as soon as her successor is confirmed. After the past 3 years, I can only imagine she would welcome time out of the limelight.
I do believe she did what she thought was for the best. She wasn't always surrounded by the best people and she didn't help herself at times. But it was an impossible hand to play and I don't doubt that she has earned the right to quieter life.
> @DecrepitJohnL said: not. > > 29/5 is when Theresa May overtakes Gordon Brown. This is said to mean a lot. <
++++
Then she's a mewling idiot, and even stupider than I thought. Who really gives a tiny toss how long you were premier? Compared to others?
What matters - if you fail, and she has clearly failed, and there is no shame in this - is bowing out with grace. Do it with style. People remember endings.
This is just dragging it out, painfully and horribly. The political equivalent of scratching your nails down a blackboard. Before you quit the classroom.
> @brokenwheel said: > Fwiw Opinium with their last EP poll had a Westminster VI; > > Lab 26% (-3) > Brx 25% (+1) > Con 22% (NC) > Lib 12% (+1) > SNP 4% (NC) > Grn 4% (+1) > UKIP 2% (NC) > CUK 2% (-1) > Plaid 1% (+1) > > 17-20 May > > https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-17th-may-2019/ > > Total nonsense of course but would make for an interesting parliament...
Electoral Calculus gives Labour 264, Brexit Party 133, Tories 154, SNP 55, LDs 22.
So Brexit Party and Tories combined more than Labour but LDs and SNP hold the balance of power
Brexit Party now just 1% behind Labour and 3% ahead of the Tories, if the Brexit Party do win the European elections on Sunday it is likely they will lead in at least one poll next week
Trump-baiting is good fun but surely the significant inferences from what he says (or tweets) is that he is less keen on war with Iran than John Bolton and less opposed to abortion than Alabama. Trump is the moderate!
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory. > > > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since. > > > > Yikes.... if I've got to pick between any of those in a two-horse race, I'll definitely be drawing in a cock and balls on my members vote! then promptly cutting up my card (which handily is a wishy washy cardboard thing) > > Depressing ain't it? > > Good news. Sunday will see a thread by me calling Mark Reckless all sorts of names.
can you weave in messrs bridgen and francois to it...
> If Brexit isn't resolved there's no way this parliament limps on until 2022. The government will either collapse like a house of cards, or endure death by a thousand cuts, but either way it won't survive. There's too much pressure applied, particularly near Brexit deadlines, and they're already badly weakened.
>
> I could only see it limping along till 2022 if some of that pressure was vented and the withdrawal agreement somehow snuck over the line, May exited stage left, the talks with Europe and the future relationship then went on quietly in the background and the political discussion returned temporarily to domestic matters, but I don't see that happening and even then the new Tory leader will still be thinking about a GE.
The government doesn't just explode from too much pressure though. A specific thing has to happen:
1) PM calls an election, and opposition agrees. But if the government is badly weakened, the PM won't call an election they would lose
2) DUP pulls the plug. Why? They're still getting paid
3) Some Con MPs bolt. But it's career suicide, and all their friends and colleagues will hate them. Could happen but needs severe provocation by the PM, who will generally choose not to provoke
4) Enough Con MPs die or get long prison sentences that Con+DUP isn't enough. But MPs are healthier and more careful than they used to be, and minibuses are built tough
Defections to CUK or, more likely now, the LDs could be the route to Cons losing their majority.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory. > > > > > > > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since. > > > > > > > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed. > > > > > > > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for. > > > > > > By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed. > > > > > > Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway > > > > You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is. > > > > Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings > > We do, Macron will veto further extension and it will be No Deal under a new Tory PM if the WA has not passed by then. The only way to stop it would be Tory MPs like Grieve voting to make Corbyn PM to try and force a further extension and if Macron has vetoed a revoke vote
You are talking nonsense and as several posters have already said Junckers is ready for an extension and Macron will not veto it. Your posts are so predictable I do not even need to see the author. You need to get away from the IDS school of brexit thought and accept that there are countless variations on how this pans out
Macron will not veto. He will talk about doing so for the benefit of his domestic audience and out of irritation, but the EU are already preparing the ground for another extension and refusing an extension would be to coerce the UK to stay in the EU or to abandon Ireland.
Neither of those are good options for the EU, or for Macron.
I can see the attraction of believing he would do so, it brings some hope of an end to this limbo. It is another unicorn. Macron will not save us from our indecision.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory. > > > > > > > > > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since. > > > > > > > > > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed. > > > > > > > > > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for. > > > > > > > > By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed. > > > > > > > > Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway > > > > > > You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is. > > > > > > Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings > > > > We do, Macron will veto further extension and it will be No Deal under a new Tory PM if the WA has not passed by then. The only way to stop it would be Tory MPs like Grieve voting to make Corbyn PM to try and force a further extension and if Macron has vetoed a revoke vote > > You are talking nonsense and as several posters have already said Junckers is ready for an extension and Macron will not veto it. Your posts are so predictable I do not even need to see the author. You need to get away from the IDS school of brexit thought and accept that there are countless variations on how this pans out
Most people would be embarrassed to be posting such a never ending stream of c**p in here. But HY appears to have no shame.
> @nico67 said: > In response to Kyf I understand what you’re saying. > > I’m a realistic Remainer . I expect the BP to do very well . The real interest personally is to see what happens to Labour and the Lib Dems .
Yup.
I reckon most Brexiteers will go Brexit and a lot of Labour will go Lib Dem, though it's hard to guess how much.
FWIW, I have seen a few friends on my FB feed say they are lifelong Labour voters voting Lib Dem for the first time today. Most of the Tories I know have claimed they are abstaining (though I suspect many are secretly voting for Brexit - Brexit shy vote very possible!).
The thing that amazes me the most is, if we take today to be a kinda proxy referendum, just how little has changed. Let's face it, the people charged with delivering Brexit haven't exactly covered themselves in glory, while even the staunchest of Brexiteers believe it will be an uphill struggle, possible economic damage etc. And of course we have had three years of a relentlessly hostile media telling us how damaging Brexit will be.
At this point I'm starting to believe that if it was known that to complete Brexit would require the sacrifice of all the firstborn sons in the land, the polls would still be 50/50 split. Which goes back to what others were saying in the previous thread: Brexit is about values, not about outcomes. A divide that cannot be easily mended.
Estimated 50% turnout in our very Remainy small town. We regularly have the highest turnout in the district so that's a plausible ceiling.
A more rural ward a few miles away, and certainly less Remainy, is looking like 20%.
As a few posters have commented, this is looking like a remarkably polarised election. Good news for the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems, bad news for the Conservatives and Labour.
Not sure it is good news for BP; if the turnout differential is what it appears to be the vast majority of votes in Leave areas will need to BP votes to counteract the rise in turnout in Remain areas.
Comments
> > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > #5 was matched at 20.0 for the PvDA. The only match.
> >
> > They can be thankful the price of their idiocy is only £95
>
> What price do you think the PvDA should have been at ?
A party 2pp behind the leader? 10/1?
JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
> Went independent Network, weirdly thought about voting both Green or Brexit party more than the Tories to be honest.
>
> Both Nige and the greens have compelling narratives this election.
>
> Change UK's lack of a logo is going to kill them - could well benefit the Lib Dems.
I saw one house in my town with five change UK posters. Like 5 multicoloured supermarket barcodes.
Looked really weird to be honest.
Good for LDs and Green?
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
>
> > My mum, slightly against my expectations, tells me that she went ahead and spoiled her ballot paper. She thinks that both my sisters and brothers in law have done the same.
>
> >
>
> > Those are five normally rock solid Conservative voters.
>
>
>
> I wanted to do that but chickened out. It felt childish.
>
>
>
> So I very reluctantly voted Conservative, and then immediately regretted it.
>
> I found it oddly liberating.
Drawing a giant cock and balls usually is.
> FWIW In my very Remainer west London suburb, the polling booth was noticeably busy when I voted about an hour ago. Much busier than for locals.
>
> Good for LDs and Green?
I expect turnout to be higher in very Remain areas.
Same in very Leave areas.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > #5 was matched at 20.0 for the PvDA. The only match.
> > >
> > > They can be thankful the price of their idiocy is only £95
> >
> > What price do you think the PvDA should have been at ?
>
> A party 2pp behind the leader? 10/1?
I think 10-1 would have been a fair price. You'll need VVD and FvD to make up perhaps 60% of the book being the two consistent leaders so giving 10% to CDA, GL and PvDA with the rags making up the remainder perhaps about right.
http://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1131644054586961920
http://twitter.com/mvdz_/status/1131637309361860611
> It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
>
> JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
Yikes.... if I've got to pick between any of those in a two-horse race, I'll definitely be drawing in a cock and balls on my members vote! then promptly cutting up my card (which handily is a wishy washy cardboard thing)
http://twitter.com/alexanderbakker/status/1131644150871449600
Good news. Sunday will see a thread by me calling Mark Reckless all sorts of names.
https://twitter.com/rabrowne75/status/1131657567091003392?s=21
> It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
>
> JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed.
There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for.
Turnout isn’t going to be that much higher than normal and might show big variations across the country .
There seems to be a lot of disgruntled Labour Remainers .
A lot seem to be moving towards the Lib Dems and Greens . Change UK I think have sunk without trace .
No one I know is voting for Change UK , but most of my Labour friends are currently splitting 50 50 between the Lib Dems and Greens .
> It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
>
> JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
You voted LD at the last general election if I recall when the Tories got 42%, you voted Tory today when the Tories will be lucky to get much more than 10% but of course these things go in cycles and a rightwinger or at least a Brexiteer is likely to win the Tory leadership to succeed May for the first time since Michael Howard
Listening to the podcast it seems Remainers were less committed to any one Remain party than hard-leavers were to TBP. I am just wondering how the pollsters dealt with this.
For example, I was >99% certain to vote, and to vote for a Remain party, but if a pollster had asked me I'd have said 50% certain to vote LD, 20% Green, 20% CUK, 10% Labour (e.g. if they'd made a last minute commitment to a 2nd Ref). Can't help thinking my preference would have been dismissed in the final analysis.
We'll see on Sunday night, I guess.
>
> I’m still uncomfortable with this desire to sack people who you disagree with. It’s attempting to silence and intimidate opponents
>
> It is the way of the world.
>
> I shed no tears for the woman who was sacked for wishing Farage had been milkshaked with acid.<
++++
Yes, that was appalling. An outright incitement of awful violence. And she worked for a charity, happily emblazoned on her Twitter account.
No coming back from that.
Danny Baker I felt much more sorry for. I do not for a minute believe he is racist. But why did he even think that tweet was acceptable? I find it hard to believe 1. he didn't know the royal baby was mixed race, and 2. he didn't realise that monkeys/races as a meme are REALLY NOT GOOD
Perhaps it was a tiny fragment of his Millwall supporting id, re-emerging. I hope - after he's done his porridge - he gets another job. He doesn't deserve a lifetime of contrition. And I am not a supporter of Labour and Corbyn (and he is).
> https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1131659386768777219
Still time for the Withdrawal Agreement vote then
I was about during peak voting time - 6-8:00pm. It's solid leave around here especially the rural workers, or ex-workers mainly, who for some reason blame the EU for the demise of the orchards and market gardens that used to provide a lot of employment. The remainers are the ones who work in the towns round about. It seemed to be mainly them who were making the trip to the town hall where the booths are.
Probably means nothing, but then not many of these stories do.
The contest to elect the next Tory leader would kick off the same day, with Mrs May staying in place as a caretaker leader.
Under that timetable, a new PM could be in place before the Commons breaks up for the summer at the end of July.
But some Tory MPs speculated that she could go immediately, handing over the keys to No 10 to her de facto deputy David Lidington.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-set-finally-quit-avoid-16191553
Pa, the most loyal Tory I know, voted Brexit.
My Remain-voting other half spoilt her ballot.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
> >
> > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
>
> If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed.
>
> There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for.
By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed.
Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway
(Edit: If your MEP had time to phone all his/her voters today, he or she doesn't have very many.)
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1131659386768777219
>
> Still time for the Withdrawal Agreement vote then
It is over and the WDA with it
Turnout at about 8 am this morning was about 6-7% at a guess.
Remainers in the household all abstained - 'wouldn't know who to vote for' and 'what's the election about?' - this is in two cases c.30 year olds who are active social media users and clearly Remainers.
In work, topic briefly raised by four 20-30 year old females - no idea of their vote inclinations - 'I wouldn't know who to vote for', 'it annoys me that they only turn up when there is an election'.
> The Dutch EP in share
>
> http://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1131644054586961920
Most pollsters had the VVD in front so looks like a classic midterm protest vote for the opposition PVDA they did not pick up
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_Netherlands
I've never missed a vote in 30 years and never even considered voting anything other than Conservative
I'm a current Conservative Party member, former area vice chairman and former parliamentary candidate.
After much deliberation I went into the polling station still reluctantly going to vote Conservative but when it got to putting the X in the box I voted Brexit.
I will never support any other party and am still a Conservative, however I am so sick of Theresa May and the remainers in the parliamentary party thinking they know better than the public than I just couldn't support them on this occasion.
I don't think that we should read anything into these results as I'm sure most true Conservatives like myself will return to the party fold from now on, but this was a unique opportunity to express my displeasure without any consequences (since the elected MEP's are not likely to take their seats for any significant period of time).
> If Conservative ballot-spoilers are a bigger factor than anticipated, perhaps the Brexit Party is being overestimated.
Pollsters might have been better prompting specifically for "spoil your ballot paper" instead of just hoping people who planned to draw a cock on it would choose "don't know / won't vote / won't say".
The big narrative after the Spanish election was Vox who scored a massive 11% !
The rise of the Greens in Germany has been news avoided like the plague . No ones disputing that far right parties will do well but there seems little balance in the coverage .
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
> >
> > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
>
> If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed.
>
> There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for.
If Brexit isn't resolved there's no way this parliament limps on until 2022. The government will either collapse like a house of cards, or endure death by a thousand cuts, but either way it won't survive. There's too much pressure applied, particularly near Brexit deadlines, and they're already badly weakened.
I could only see it limping along till 2022 if some of that pressure was vented and the withdrawal agreement somehow snuck over the line, May exited stage left, the talks with Europe and the future relationship then went on quietly in the background and the political discussion returned temporarily to domestic matters, but I don't see that happening and even then the new Tory leader will still be thinking about a GE.
> It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
>
> JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since. <
++++
Francois and Jenkyns are not candidates for the leadership. The two favourites (Johnson, Raab) might be unacceptably Brexity in your eyes, but they are also much more socially liberal than, say, the departing ex PM Teresa May.
e.g. I would expect Boris to change the law on students and migration numbers on the day he takes the job (IF he gets the job).
In many ways Boris or Raab are closer to your political perspective than May, I suspect (I am only guessing, and also looking on the bright side).
> > @Black_Rook said:
> > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
> > >
> > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
> >
> > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed.
> >
> > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for.
>
> By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed.
>
> Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway
You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is.
Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings
Lab 26% (-3)
Brx 25% (+1)
Con 22% (NC)
Lib 12% (+1)
SNP 4% (NC)
Grn 4% (+1)
UKIP 2% (NC)
CUK 2% (-1)
Plaid 1% (+1)
17-20 May
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-17th-may-2019/
Total nonsense of course but would make for an interesting parliament...
> An even more pointless polling station anecdote than most coming up.
>
> I was about during peak voting time - 6-8:00pm. It's solid leave around here especially the rural workers, or ex-workers mainly, who for some reason blame the EU for the demise of the orchards and market gardens that used to provide a lot of employment. The remainers are the ones who work in the towns round about. It seemed to be mainly them who were making the trip to the town hall where the booths are.
>
> Probably means nothing, but then not many of these stories do.
So between 6 and 8pm you saw lots of people with jobs voting, but pensioners were curiously absent? Some should run a study in to the causes of this phenomenon.
@HUYFD you seem to be overlooking the possibility of a VoNC as a way of stopping No Deal.
Jul-Sep is trading 1.7 ish now
Whats the bet?
I suspect it's largely an echo chamber effect, i.e. All my friends are voting Lib Dem and all the people I follow on Twitter are, too! etc.
FWIW, I think the polls will be fairly accurate. For the reason that I can't name a soul either here or IRL who has changed their opinion on whether to leave/remain.
Polling has Brex + Con + Ukip at around 47% of the vote and that sounds about right. Add another 2-3% of support from Brexiteers who are sticking with the arch equivocators, Labour, and that adds up to a country split squarely down the middle. A clarion call for a "People's" Vote it is not. But neither is it a breakthrough for Diamond Hard Brexit.
To borrow the phrase that has defined the last couple of years, "Nothing Has Changed."
The country is still split down the middle. Nobody has any answers. Nobody is reaching out to the other side.
> I will never support any other party and am still a Conservative, however I am so sick of Theresa May and the remainers in the parliamentary party thinking they know better than the public than I just couldn't support them on this occasion.
>
> That’s because they do know better. The public hasn’t got a f*cking clue about the consequences of anything to do with Brexit.
Ah, I see you're a supporter of democracy, if you don't like Brexit you should move to China, they share your attitude there!
> I will never support any other party and am still a Conservative, however I am so sick of Theresa May and the remainers in the parliamentary party thinking they know better than the public than I just couldn't support them on this occasion.
>
> That’s because they do know better. The public hasn’t got a f*cking clue about the consequences of anything to do with Brexit.
True . What I’m sick of is the mantra that Leavers all knew what they were voting for . Considering after the ref a poll showed a wide range of views , from staying in the single market , some were still happy with freedom of movement , some wanted Norway .
Now the vote has been hijacked by the no deal death cult .
> Sources on the Tories’ powerful 1922 committee said they expected her to stay in place until June 10 meaning she would still be in No 10 for the state visit of US President Donald Trump.
>
> The contest to elect the next Tory leader would kick off the same day, with Mrs May staying in place as a caretaker leader.
>
> Under that timetable, a new PM could be in place before the Commons breaks up for the summer at the end of July.
>
> But some Tory MPs speculated that she could go immediately, handing over the keys to No 10 to her de facto deputy David Lidington.
>
> https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-set-finally-quit-avoid-16191553
She'll do her duty and stay on as PM until the new Con leader is decided.
FWIW.
* Good news 2: Ziva David is back in NCIS
* Bad news: I assume this is the last UK participation in the EP elections. I will miss it...
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > @Black_Rook said:
>
> > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
>
> > >
>
> > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed.
>
> > >
>
> > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for.
>
> >
>
> > By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed.
>
> >
>
> > Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway
>
>
>
> You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is.
>
>
>
> Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings
>
> Well said Big_G.
>
> @HUYFD you seem to be overlooking the possibility of a VoNC as a way of stopping No Deal.
In that case if said new PM really wanted to get No Deal, they could prorogue parliament.
> The media seem desperate to big up a far right rise in the EU and avoid talking about other things going on .
>
> The big narrative after the Spanish election was Vox who scored a massive 11% !
>
> The rise of the Greens in Germany has been news avoided like the plague . No ones disputing that far right parties will do well but there seems little balance in the coverage .
To some extent true, the only countries the nationalist right leads in are Italy and France and Hungary and Poland and the UK if you include the Brexit Party in that category. They will be up elsewhere but so will the Greens and in most countries either the main centre right or centre left party will still win (or possibly the liberal En Marche in France)
> https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1131631187066314752<;
++++
Not a HUGE fan of George Osborne (tho he would have made a much better premier than T May), but if any journalist in Fleet Street is well connected in Tory circles, it is him. So that sounds kosher, and reliable. And it makes sense.
I pity - again - poor Teresa. My God, what will that State Visit with Trump be like? He openly despises "losers". She is the epitome of a loser. And she has to host him??
If I were Philip May, I would advise her to step down this weekend, and get a caretaker. The humiliation is not worth the extra two weeks of power. It really is not.
> https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1131631187066314752
That’s it then - I’m sure Ozzy’s sources are impeccable. We’re about to enter World Boris.
> https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1131631187066314752<;
++++
Not a HUGE fan of George Osborne (tho he would have made a much better premier than T May), but if any journalist in Fleet Street is well connected in Tory circles, it is him. So that sounds kosher, and reliable. And it makes sense.
I pity - again - poor Teresa. My God, what will that State Visit with Trump be like? He openly despises "losers". She is the epitome of a loser. And she has to host him??
If I were Philip May, I would advise her to step down this weekend, and get a caretaker. The humiliation is not worth the extra two weeks of power. It really is not.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1131659386768777219
> >
> > Still time for the Withdrawal Agreement vote then
>
> It is over and the WDA with it
It isn't, especially once Labour MPs from Leave seats realise it is likely now either the WA or No Deal and they cannot risk voting for Revoke given the rise of the Brexit Party in their constituencies
> > @Benpointer said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > > > @Black_Rook said:
> >
> > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> >
> > > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
> >
> > > > >
> >
> > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway
> >
> >
> >
> > You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is.
> >
> >
> >
> > Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings
> >
> > Well said Big_G.
> >
> > @HUYFD you seem to be overlooking the possibility of a VoNC as a way of stopping No Deal.
>
> In that case if said new PM really wanted to get No Deal, they could prorogue parliament.
Has the UK now turned into a dictatorship . If a PM did that once it would set an awful precedent .
> Turnout anecdote from the constituencies former MSP
>
> https://twitter.com/MarcoGBiagi/status/1131629298417373185
>
>
>
> Edinburgh turnout at the 2014 euros was 41.6%, Scotland turnout was 33%.
>
> 2016 Edinburgh Central turnout was 57.3%
>
> That's... Big. Very good for the greens in Scotland.
Surely in Ruth Davidson's constituency it'll be votes for the Ruth Davidson party to send a message to Wee Nippy & the EssEnnPee?
> Fwiw Opinium with their last EP poll had a Westminster VI;
>
> Lab 26% (-3)
> Brx 25% (+1)
> Con 22% (NC)
> Lib 12% (+1)
> SNP 4% (NC)
> Grn 4% (+1)
> UKIP 2% (NC)
> CUK 2% (-1)
> Plaid 1% (+1)
>
> 17-20 May
>
> https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-17th-may-2019/
>
> Total nonsense of course but would make for an interesting parliament...
>
> Cue HYUFD plugging the figures into Election Calculus and telling us Nige will be PM leading a rainbow coalition or somesuch.
I would not put it past him
Certainly a lot of wishful thinking going on - I know I'm susceptible to it myself!
Personally I wouldn't back it, but it's far from impossible.
> > @Alistair said:
> > Turnout anecdote from the constituencies former MSP
> >
> > https://twitter.com/MarcoGBiagi/status/1131629298417373185
> >
> >
> >
> > Edinburgh turnout at the 2014 euros was 41.6%, Scotland turnout was 33%.
> >
> > 2016 Edinburgh Central turnout was 57.3%
> >
> > That's... Big. Very good for the greens in Scotland.
>
>
> Surely in Ruth Davidson's constituency it'll be votes for the Ruth Davidson party to send a message to Wee Nippy & the EssEnnPee?
Doubtful , that’s Remainer central of Scotland .
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1131631187066314752<;
>
>
> ++++
>
> Not a HUGE fan of George Osborne (tho he would have made a much better premier than T May), but if any journalist in Fleet Street is well connected in Tory circles, it is him. So that sounds kosher, and reliable. And it makes sense.
>
> I pity - again - poor Teresa. My God, what will that State Visit with Trump be like? He openly despises "losers". She is the epitome of a loser. And she has to host him??
>
> If I were Philip May, I would advise her to step down this weekend, and get a caretaker. The humiliation is not worth the extra two weeks of power. It really is not.
29/5 is when Theresa May overtakes Gordon Brown. This is said to mean a lot.
> > @Benpointer said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > > > @Black_Rook said:
> >
> > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> >
> > > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
> >
> > > > >
> >
> > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway
> >
> >
> >
> > You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is.
> >
> >
> >
> > Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings
> >
> > Well said Big_G.
> >
> > @HUYFD you seem to be overlooking the possibility of a VoNC as a way of stopping No Deal.
>
> In that case if said new PM really wanted to get No Deal, they could prorogue parliament.
Yet more rubbish from HY. The EU is already expecting a further extension (see recent interview with Junker) and there won’t be any French veto.
> It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
>
>
>
> JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
>
> Shall we send you a Lib Dem application form?
>
> No thank you.
Fancy some CUK instead?
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1131659386768777219
> > >
> > > Still time for the Withdrawal Agreement vote then
> >
> > It is over and the WDA with it
>
> It isn't, especially once Labour MPs from Leave seats realise it is likely now either the WA or No Deal and they cannot risk voting for Revoke given the rise of the Brexit Party in their constituencies
It is over - it will not see the light of day.
With respect it, maybe, is time for you to see the light
> Reading through the thread, it seems there is a lot of wishful thinking here, particularly from remainers.
>
> I suspect it's largely an echo chamber effect, i.e. All my friends are voting Lib Dem and all the people I follow on Twitter are, too! etc.
>
> FWIW, I think the polls will be fairly accurate. For the reason that I can't name a soul either here or IRL who has changed their opinion on whether to leave/remain.
>
> Polling has Brex + Con + Ukip at around 47% of the vote and that sounds about right. Add another 2-3% of support from Brexiteers who are sticking with the arch equivocators, Labour, and that adds up to a country split squarely down the middle. A clarion call for a "People's" Vote it is not. But neither is it a breakthrough for Diamond Hard Brexit.
>
> To borrow the phrase that has defined the last couple of years, "Nothing Has Changed."
>
> The country is still split down the middle. Nobody has any answers. Nobody is reaching out to the other side.
Were> @Gallowgate said:
> The President of the United States can hardly speak English...
>
> https://twitter.com/rabrowne75/status/1131657567091003392
TMay wants to stay to meet him?
The mind boggles.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1131631187066314752<;
>
>
> ++++
>
> Not a HUGE fan of George Osborne (tho he would have made a much better premier than T May), but if any journalist in Fleet Street is well connected in Tory circles, it is him. So that sounds kosher, and reliable. And it makes sense.
>
> I pity - again - poor Teresa. My God, what will that State Visit with Trump be like? He openly despises "losers". She is the epitome of a loser. And she has to host him??
>
> If I were Philip May, I would advise her to step down this weekend, and get a caretaker. The humiliation is not worth the extra two weeks of power. It really is not.
You can imagine Donald telling her she should have took his advice on how to deal with the EU.
I’m a realistic Remainer . I expect the BP to do very well . The real interest personally is to see what happens to Labour and the Lib Dems .
Estimated 50% turnout in our very Remainy small town. We regularly have the highest turnout in the district so that's a plausible ceiling.
A more rural ward a few miles away, and certainly less Remainy, is looking like 20%.
As a few posters have commented, this is looking like a remarkably polarised election. Good news for the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems, bad news for the Conservatives and Labour.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Black_Rook said:
> > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
> > > >
> > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
> > >
> > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed.
> > >
> > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for.
> >
> > By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed.
> >
> > Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway
>
> You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is.
>
> Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings
We do, Macron will veto further extension and it will be No Deal under a new Tory PM if the WA has not passed by then. The only way to stop it would be Tory MPs like Grieve voting to make Corbyn PM to try and force a further extension and if Macron has vetoed a revoke vote
> If Brexit isn't resolved there's no way this parliament limps on until 2022. The government will either collapse like a house of cards, or endure death by a thousand cuts, but either way it won't survive. There's too much pressure applied, particularly near Brexit deadlines, and they're already badly weakened.
>
> I could only see it limping along till 2022 if some of that pressure was vented and the withdrawal agreement somehow snuck over the line, May exited stage left, the talks with Europe and the future relationship then went on quietly in the background and the political discussion returned temporarily to domestic matters, but I don't see that happening and even then the new Tory leader will still be thinking about a GE.
The government doesn't just explode from too much pressure though. A specific thing has to happen:
1) PM calls an election, and opposition agrees. But if the government is badly weakened, the PM won't call an election they would lose
2) DUP pulls the plug. Why? They're still getting paid
3) Some Con MPs bolt. But it's career suicide, and all their friends and colleagues will hate them. Could happen but needs severe provocation by the PM, who will generally choose not to provoke
4) Enough Con MPs die or get long prison sentences that Con+DUP isn't enough. But MPs are healthier and more careful than they used to be, and minibuses are built tough
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > @Black_Rook said:
>
> > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
>
> > >
>
> > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed.
>
> > >
>
> > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for.
>
> >
>
> > By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed.
>
> >
>
> > Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway
>
>
>
> You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is.
>
>
>
> Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings
>
> Well said Big_G.
>
> @HUYFD you seem to be overlooking the possibility of a VoNC as a way of stopping No Deal.
That is not impossible but would require Tory MPs to vote for it and to make Corbyn PM
I do believe she did what she thought was for the best. She wasn't always surrounded by the best people and she didn't help herself at times. But it was an impossible hand to play and I don't doubt that she has earned the right to quieter life.
not.
>
> 29/5 is when Theresa May overtakes Gordon Brown. This is said to mean a lot. <
++++
Then she's a mewling idiot, and even stupider than I thought. Who really gives a tiny toss how long you were premier? Compared to others?
What matters - if you fail, and she has clearly failed, and there is no shame in this - is bowing out with grace. Do it with style. People remember endings.
This is just dragging it out, painfully and horribly. The political equivalent of scratching your nails down a blackboard. Before you quit the classroom.
> Fwiw Opinium with their last EP poll had a Westminster VI;
>
> Lab 26% (-3)
> Brx 25% (+1)
> Con 22% (NC)
> Lib 12% (+1)
> SNP 4% (NC)
> Grn 4% (+1)
> UKIP 2% (NC)
> CUK 2% (-1)
> Plaid 1% (+1)
>
> 17-20 May
>
> https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-17th-may-2019/
>
> Total nonsense of course but would make for an interesting parliament...
Electoral Calculus gives Labour 264, Brexit Party 133, Tories 154, SNP 55, LDs 22.
So Brexit Party and Tories combined more than Labour but LDs and SNP hold the balance of power
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=22&LAB=26&LIB=12&UKIP=2&Green=4&ChUK=2&Brexit=25&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Brexit Party now just 1% behind Labour and 3% ahead of the Tories, if the Brexit Party do win the European elections on Sunday it is likely they will lead in at least one poll next week
T May goes tomorrow?
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
>
> >
>
> > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
>
>
>
> Yikes.... if I've got to pick between any of those in a two-horse race, I'll definitely be drawing in a cock and balls on my members vote! then promptly cutting up my card (which handily is a wishy washy cardboard thing)
>
> Depressing ain't it?
>
> Good news. Sunday will see a thread by me calling Mark Reckless all sorts of names.
can you weave in messrs bridgen and francois to it...
> https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1131667196298575873
10pm
as polls close
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Black_Rook said:
> > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
> > > > >
> > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
> > > >
> > > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed.
> > > >
> > > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for.
> > >
> > > By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed.
> > >
> > > Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway
> >
> > You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is.
> >
> > Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings
>
> We do, Macron will veto further extension and it will be No Deal under a new Tory PM if the WA has not passed by then. The only way to stop it would be Tory MPs like Grieve voting to make Corbyn PM to try and force a further extension and if Macron has vetoed a revoke vote
You are talking nonsense and as several posters have already said Junckers is ready for an extension and Macron will not veto it. Your posts are so predictable I do not even need to see the author. You need to get away from the IDS school of brexit thought and accept that there are countless variations on how this pans out
Neither of those are good options for the EU, or for Macron.
I can see the attraction of believing he would do so, it brings some hope of an end to this limbo. It is another unicorn. Macron will not save us from our indecision.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Black_Rook said:
> > > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
> > > > >
> > > > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed.
> > > > >
> > > > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for.
> > > >
> > > > By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed.
> > > >
> > > > Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway
> > >
> > > You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is.
> > >
> > > Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings
> >
> > We do, Macron will veto further extension and it will be No Deal under a new Tory PM if the WA has not passed by then. The only way to stop it would be Tory MPs like Grieve voting to make Corbyn PM to try and force a further extension and if Macron has vetoed a revoke vote
>
> You are talking nonsense and as several posters have already said Junckers is ready for an extension and Macron will not veto it. Your posts are so predictable I do not even need to see the author. You need to get away from the IDS school of brexit thought and accept that there are countless variations on how this pans out
Most people would be embarrassed to be posting such a never ending stream of c**p in here. But HY appears to have no shame.
> In response to Kyf I understand what you’re saying.
>
> I’m a realistic Remainer . I expect the BP to do very well . The real interest personally is to see what happens to Labour and the Lib Dems .
Yup.
I reckon most Brexiteers will go Brexit and a lot of Labour will go Lib Dem, though it's hard to guess how much.
FWIW, I have seen a few friends on my FB feed say they are lifelong Labour voters voting Lib Dem for the first time today. Most of the Tories I know have claimed they are abstaining (though I suspect many are secretly voting for Brexit - Brexit shy vote very possible!).
The thing that amazes me the most is, if we take today to be a kinda proxy referendum, just how little has changed. Let's face it, the people charged with delivering Brexit haven't exactly covered themselves in glory, while even the staunchest of Brexiteers believe it will be an uphill struggle, possible economic damage etc. And of course we have had three years of a relentlessly hostile media telling us how damaging Brexit will be.
At this point I'm starting to believe that if it was known that to complete Brexit would require the sacrifice of all the firstborn sons in the land, the polls would still be 50/50 split. Which goes back to what others were saying in the previous thread: Brexit is about values, not about outcomes. A divide that cannot be easily mended.