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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. What is going on with the EU election polls?
On this week podcast, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh discuss the EU election polls and what happens next week.
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> Surely not first?
It only counts if you have listened to the podcast.
It is an antique dealers, which must say something.
This needs to be taken very seriously and fixed.
I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this.
A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”.
In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole.
The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.”
As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/niall-mccrae-femi-oluwole_uk_5ce64fd4e4b0547bd1326d94
> Anecdote alert - came across a lady who told me she was so frustrated with the elections as a whole they were either voting Brexit or Green. Quite the combination.
I know someone who was trying to decide between the LDs and the Brexit Party. They'd ruled out everyone else and were left with those two options.
> Election officials are disenfranchising Irish citizens now?
>
> This needs to be taken very seriously and fixed.
There are serious questions to be asked of the Home Office and the advice given by election officials as a result of Home Office policies.
These issues have been piling up ever since Mrs May's tenure of the Home Office.
Co-incidence?
> Election officials are disenfranchising Irish citizens now?
>
> This needs to be taken very seriously and fixed.
Don't they have same rights as UK nationals? They don't even need the special forms that EU citizens require, so not sure how the clerks will be able to tell they are Irish.
> He's getting sacked in the morning.
>
> I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this.
>
> A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”.
>
> In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole.
>
> The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.”
>
> As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man.
>
> https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/niall-mccrae-femi-oluwole_uk_5ce64fd4e4b0547bd1326d94
Jeezo, only 29? Beer bellies and tight white t shirts just don't go. He should be sacked for that outfit alone.
> He's getting sacked in the morning.
>
> I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this.
>
> A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”.
>
> In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole.
>
> The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.”
>
> As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man.
>
> https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/niall-mccrae-femi-oluwole_uk_5ce64fd4e4b0547bd1326d94
I just want to point out that it's almost always men. Men are the problem.
I don't know why, or what to do about it, but look out for it whenever you see this kind of thing in future. 19 times out of 20 it's men doing it.
> He's getting sacked in the morning.
>
> I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this.
>
> A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”.
>
> In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole.
>
> The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.”
>
> As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man.
>
> https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/niall-mccrae-femi-oluwole_uk_5ce64fd4e4b0547bd1326d94
Sad , I really despise the traitor talk . And it’s very dangerous rhetoric given the times we live in . I hope Cameron is proud of himself !
The rest of the commuters in the carriage are totally ignoring her though, as regular commuters are often wont to do. Make of that what you will.
Just voted...hardly any names on the entire roll were crossed off. No one in the polling station, and the staff seemed shocked to see another human being. This is usually a higher than average turnout area. Can't imagine that's good for leavers.
Not far off national graffiti.
> Election officials are disenfranchising Irish citizens now?
>
> This needs to be taken very seriously and fixed.
Likely to be yet more fake news.
We've had similar stories that turned out to be false later. @thehistoryguy
> > @kle4 said:
> > Anecdote alert - came across a lady who told me she was so frustrated with the elections as a whole they were either voting Brexit or Green. Quite the combination.
>
> I know someone who was trying to decide between the LDs and the Brexit Party. They'd ruled out everyone else and were left with those two options.
Hmmmm....maybe the people really don't know what they are voting for......
They have spent the last two days trying to persuade the council that it was their mistake that they had not received a ballot paper.
When they arrived at the polling station on the Isle of Dogs this morning they found their name was crossed off and were put in touch with the council again who told their paperwork didn’t arrive until 16 May, two weeks after the deadline.
In a phone call videoed by the Guardian they insisted again that was a council mistake and they would not be “silenced”. They warned they would make a freedom of information request for CCTV footage of 2 May.
Six hours later Tower Hamlets said they had phoned them with the “good news”. They had checked the CCTV footage and agreed that it was their mistake and told them could vote."
Well done them, but having to threaten to take legal action in order to vote in an election you are fully entitled to vote in is too much. We need to sort this out before the 2024 European elections.
> Do we get any official turnout numbers before Sunday?
I cant imagine it would make sense to lay on staff tonight or tomorrow just to do a verification. Surely the boxes will be locked away and verified as the first stage on Sunday?
> "In an extraordinary development the London borough council checked the CCTV footage at their offices for 2 May, the day Kat Sellner and Moritz Valero said they handed in their forms.
>
> They have spent the last two days trying to persuade the council that it was their mistake that they had not received a ballot paper.
>
> When they arrived at the polling station on the Isle of Dogs this morning they found their name was crossed off and were put in touch with the council again who told their paperwork didn’t arrive until 16 May, two weeks after the deadline.
>
> In a phone call videoed by the Guardian they insisted again that was a council mistake and they would not be “silenced”. They warned they would make a freedom of information request for CCTV footage of 2 May.
>
> Six hours later Tower Hamlets said they had phoned them with the “good news”. They had checked the CCTV footage and agreed that it was their mistake and told them could vote."
>
> Well done them, but having to threaten to take legal action in order to vote in an election you are fully entitled to vote in is too much. We need to sort this out before the 2024 European elections.
Are they suffering similar issues in other EU countries then?
> "In an extraordinary development the London borough council checked the CCTV footage at their offices for 2 May, the day Kat Sellner and Moritz Valero said they handed in their forms.
>
> They have spent the last two days trying to persuade the council that it was their mistake that they had not received a ballot paper.
>
> When they arrived at the polling station on the Isle of Dogs this morning they found their name was crossed off and were put in touch with the council again who told their paperwork didn’t arrive until 16 May, two weeks after the deadline.
>
> In a phone call videoed by the Guardian they insisted again that was a council mistake and they would not be “silenced”. They warned they would make a freedom of information request for CCTV footage of 2 May.
>
> Six hours later Tower Hamlets said they had phoned them with the “good news”. They had checked the CCTV footage and agreed that it was their mistake and told them could vote."
>
> Well done them, but having to threaten to take legal action in order to vote in an election you are fully entitled to vote in is too much. We need to sort this out before the 2024 European elections.
There are always vast numbers of lawyers on standby in US elections for this sort of stuff.
> Election officials are disenfranchising Irish citizens now?
>
> This needs to be taken very seriously and fixed.
They are just registered, with no special marking on the register. So, no.
>
> Well done them, but having to threaten to take legal action in order to vote in an election you are fully entitled to vote in is too much. We need to sort this out before the 2024 European elections.
-------
The system has a huge anomaly because for people from Ireland, Malta and Cyprus, just being on the electoral roll in the UK is enough, with no need to fill in a UC1 form, even though in theory they could still be eligible to vote in another state.
Current favourites in terms of vote share bands:
Con: 8/13 for under 10%
Lab: 4/6 for 10-20%
Brexit: 1/2 for 30-40%
Lib Dem: 11/8 for 15-20% (and 6/4 for 20-25%)
CUK: 1/4 for under 5%
Turnout: 11/8 for 30-40% (and 2/1 for 40-50%)
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > Since you want to dismember the UK and radically re-engineer what is left of English politics, there are other posters who could have made that point more plausibly than you.
-------------
Not at all. I am neither a disaffected outsider nor a reactionary. In case you missed it devolution and self determination are mainstream centrist ideas, not radical ones. You are a dinosaur.
> Anecdote alert.
>
> Just voted...hardly any names on the entire roll were crossed off. No one in the polling station, and the staff seemed shocked to see another human being. Can't imagine that's good for leavers.
>
> I know several Leavers who aren’t bothering.
My wife (leaver) didn't bother.
Son who didn't vote in referendum but wanted to remain didn't bother again.
another son never votes
Myself and one son voted - neither voted tory.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > He's getting sacked in the morning.
> >
> > I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this.
> >
> > A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”.
> >
> > In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole.
> >
> > The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.”
> >
> > As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man.
> >
> > https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/niall-mccrae-femi-oluwole_uk_5ce64fd4e4b0547bd1326d94
>
> I just want to point out that it's almost always men. Men are the problem.
> I don't know why, or what to do about it, but look out for it whenever you see this kind of thing in future. 19 times out of 20 it's men doing it.
Usually badly dressed men with large stomaches but I'm not sure where that takes us
> He's getting sacked in the morning.
>
> I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this.
>
> A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”.
>
> In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole.
>
> The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.”
>
> As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man.
>
> https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/niall-mccrae-femi-oluwole_uk_5ce64fd4e4b0547bd1326d94
I saw that video. He was bloody offensive and the target of his abuse was extremely calm and polite throughout.
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > Do we get any official turnout numbers before Sunday?
>
> I cant imagine it would make sense to lay on staff tonight or tomorrow just to do a verification. Surely the boxes will be locked away and verified as the first stage on Sunday?
Verification is being done tonight in most places then the count won't take long on Sunday and so the council can get its result in early.
> Election officials are disenfranchising Irish citizens now?
>
> This needs to be taken very seriously and fixed.
Not unless they are psychic. There is no way for the election official to differentiate between an Irish citizen and a UK citizen when they go to vote.
> Genuine question: what stops ballot boxes from being tampered with between now and Sunday?
They have seals, don't they?
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > Genuine question: what stops ballot boxes from being tampered with between now and Sunday?
>
> They have seals, don't they?
Yes, and don't forget that political parties and candidates can choose to add their own seals to ballot boxes too.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > Anecdote alert - came across a lady who told me she was so frustrated with the elections as a whole they were either voting Brexit or Green. Quite the combination.
> >
> > I know someone who was trying to decide between the LDs and the Brexit Party. They'd ruled out everyone else and were left with those two options.
>
> Hmmmm....maybe the people really don't know what they are voting for......
I very much doubt that is the case. Obviously, you don't know what they are voting for. But who cares about that?
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > Genuine question: what stops ballot boxes from being tampered with between now and Sunday?
>
> They have seals, don't they?
Pfft. I could take on several at once if I was determined.
Walruses, however, would be a different matter.
> > @RobD said:
>
> > > @Gallowgate said:
>
> > > Genuine question: what stops ballot boxes from being tampered with between now and Sunday?
>
> > They have seals, don't they?
>
> Yes, and don't forget that political parties and candidates can choose to add their own seals to ballot boxes too.
>
> Very interesting. Thank you.
I remember Nick Griffin famously added his own seal to the ballot boxes a few years ago because he was convinced someone was going to tamper with them.
>
> I remember Nick Griffin famously added his own seal to the ballot boxes a few years ago because he was convinced someone was going to tamper with them.
The RSPCA shouldn't allow it.
> Knowing my luck with voter percentages Brexit party will get 30.01% or 39.98% of the vote
At the risk of tempting fate, in the last EU elections I had a bet on An Independence From Europe getting under 1.5%. They got 1.49%.
But are we expecting an exit poll tonight?
On a personal note, for the first time in my 59 years I've not voted for an official Conservative Party candidate. It felt quite liberating!
> So i get the results can't be announced until 10pm Sunday when all the other countries have voted.
>
> But are we expecting an exit poll tonight?
--------
Exit polls can't be legally published until 10pm on Sunday either.
I'm not sure about the turnout figure. It would be nice to know that at least.
Also my greed for failing to cover off 1 to 2% fully.
Paddy Power offered me a gift horse and I tried to steal a second.
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > Do we get any official turnout numbers before Sunday?
>
> I cant imagine it would make sense to lay on staff tonight or tomorrow just to do a verification. Surely the boxes will be locked away and verified as the first stage on Sunday?
Couldn't they give provisional turnout figures based on the number of ballots issued?
> Detailed chat with the polling clerks, turnout low 40s or so - plenty ahead of locals
People in other places are saying it's been lower than the locals. Interesting.
> So i get the results can't be announced until 10pm Sunday when all the other countries have voted.
>
> But are we expecting an exit poll tonight?
No, we're not allowed to release any information about how people might have voted until 10pm on Sunday. Not sure whether an exit poll will be released then. It has been at previous Euro elections.
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > Election officials are disenfranchising Irish citizens now?
> >
> > This needs to be taken very seriously and fixed.
>
> Not unless they are psychic. There is no way for the election official to differentiate between an Irish citizen and a UK citizen when they go to vote.
You have to state your nationality when you register to vote though. Some EU citizens have reported seeing their names crossed off the polling station register because the council says they've not filed the relevant form. It's not impossible to imagine the ERO staff at some council or other going through the register looking for people from EU countries who've not filed the form and erroneously including people stating Irish as their nationality.
> > @AndyJS said:
>
> > I remember Nick Griffin famously added his own seal to the ballot boxes a few years ago because he was convinced someone was going to tamper with them.
>
> The RSPCA shouldn't allow it.
>
> I see it's punning night again. I'm not sure I can bear it this time,
Yes, but marine mammals - you’ll have a whale of a time.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > Detailed chat with the polling clerks, turnout low 40s or so - plenty ahead of locals
>
> People in other places are saying it's been lower than the locals. Interesting.
-------------------
Just voted; polling clerk said turnout was good and higher than expected here.
> > @RobD said:
>
> > > @Gallowgate said:
>
> > > Genuine question: what stops ballot boxes from being tampered with between now and Sunday?
>
> >
>
> > They have seals, don't they?
>
>
>
> Pfft. I could take on several at once if I was determined.
>
> Walruses, however, would be a different matter.
>
> Tsk, tsk.
Aren't the ballot boxes being sent by air to Nairobi to be held in secure areas until Sunday?
> Well, Modi smashed Congress again. It shows howuch strong leadership is worth in an election. As a party we need to take a big gamble on Boris, he's not my ideal candidate for anything but we've got nothing to lose at this point.
Can we really handle a war with Pakistan, though?
Admittedly, it formed while I was there and when I first turned up the official in charge looked as though she would die of shock.
While I wouldn't be surprised if turnout was up on before, 60%?! Really?! That's higher than in some recent general elections.
I doubt it makes more than a fractional difference though
> > @AndyJS said:
>
> > > @Pulpstar said:
>
> > > Detailed chat with the polling clerks, turnout low 40s or so - plenty ahead of locals
>
> >
>
> > People in other places are saying it's been lower than the locals. Interesting.
>
>
>
> -------------------
>
>
>
> Just voted; polling clerk said turnout was good and higher than expected here.
>
> There was an actual queue when I voted.
>
> Admittedly, it formed while I was there and when I first turned up the official in charge looked as though she would die of shock.
Deserted when I voted - though I met a couple of people going in as I left.
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/michael-heseltine-i-ll-vote-lib-dem-today-but-i-am-not-deserting-the-conservative-cause-a4149636.html
> Having just voted I noted that CUK and the Conservative Party were at the top of the ballot paper, so they may do a little bit better than the polls predict while The Brexit Party was right down the bottom so might do a little bit worse.
>
> I doubt it makes more than a fractional difference though
As you unfold the ballot paper the eye is drawn to the Labour lib dem brexit Top of the second half of the ballot is good
Can we get back to the seals?
> As you unfold the ballot paper the eye is drawn to the Labour/brexit party area. Top of the second half of the ballot is good
>
> Mine was given to me as an A4 sheet of paper. It wasn't folded.
Will be different across the country in each area
> > @ydoethur said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> >
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> >
> > > > Detailed chat with the polling clerks, turnout low 40s or so - plenty ahead of locals
> >
> > >
> >
> > > People in other places are saying it's been lower than the locals. Interesting.
> >
> >
> >
> > -------------------
> >
> >
> >
> > Just voted; polling clerk said turnout was good and higher than expected here.
> >
> > There was an actual queue when I voted.
> >
> > Admittedly, it formed while I was there and when I first turned up the official in charge looked as though she would die of shock.
>
> Deserted when I voted - though I met a couple of people going in as I left.
>
>
I came out of the polling booth brandishing a toilet roll and recommended loudly that it might be better to wait 10 minutes before anyone went in...
An interesting snippet in the hideous little story about Carl Beech and Operation Midland:
<i>Yesterday, the court heard that Mr Beech told the detective that he was part of a "little group" with Labour MP Tom Watson, a Exaro News journalist called Mark Conrad, and a retired social worker, who were trying to "put my information out there to encourage other people to come forward".
Mr Beech said he met Mr Watson in his office, where they spoke "at some length".</i>
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48384950
Hardly surprising news, but interesting.
> Just taken 8 on Betfair on the Brexit party being in the 25-30% range.
I wanted that but didn't want to jinx it.
> I'm not sure we can say for certain that Brexiteers are more motivated to vote.
Turnout anecdotes will be useless for the Brexiteers as I reckon they're disproportionately in the postals.
> I'm not sure we can say for certain that Brexiteers are more motivated to vote.
Depends, Britain First won a Waltham Abbey seat at the locals on a turnout of just 23%.
None of the main parties were telling today at the polling station I voted at, if a lower turn out benefits anyone it could be Tommy Robinson in the North West
"Aren't the ballot boxes being sent by air to Nairobi to be held in secure areas until Sunday?"
........................................................................................................................
Ballot boxes are being sent to Spurs European trophy cabinet. It's been completely empty since we joined the Common Market and they lost the keys in 1963.