> > I remember Nick Griffin famously added his own seal to the ballot boxes a few years ago because he was convinced someone was going to tamper with them.
>
> The RSPCA shouldn't allow it.
>
> I see it's punning night again. I'm not sure I can bear it this time,
Yea, but marine mammals - you’ll have a whale of a time.
I would respond, but I've done 300 miles of driving today and I can't think of an otter word.
Surely ydoethur hasn’t lost all sense of porpoise ?
I fear I'm just not as shark as I usually am.
Now you’re fishing in a different pool. A plaice we’ve visited before.
Voted around 6.15pm. Saw one person leave as I was arriving, and four more people arrive as I was leaving. London region ballot paper had ELEVEN independent candidates!
> > I remember Nick Griffin famously added his own seal to the ballot boxes a few years ago because he was convinced someone was going to tamper with them.
>
> The RSPCA shouldn't allow it.
>
> I see it's punning night again. I'm not sure I can bear it this time,
Yea, but marine mammals - you’ll have a whale of a time.
I would respond, but I've done 300 miles of driving today and I can't think of an otter word.
Surely ydoethur hasn’t lost all sense of porpoise ?
I fear I'm just not as shark as I usually am.
Now you’re fishing in a different pool. A plaice we’ve visited before.
These puns are just red herrings.
Can we get back to the seals?
Fur sure.
Kotick some other box with your puns.
I’m struggling to Inuit your meaning.
It is quite an obscure pun. Confusion is Aleut. But forgive me if I show Mowgli at having outfoxed you.
Voted around 6.15pm. Saw one person leave as I was arriving, and four more people arrive as I was leaving. London region ballot paper had ELEVEN independent candidates!
Is the average IQ in London very low? They clearly D'Hondt understand how Blair's undemocratic cronyismoops, European elections work.
> @M.Partridge said: > > @Gallowgate said: > > As you unfold the ballot paper the eye is drawn to the Labour/brexit party area. Top of the second half of the ballot is good > > > > Mine was given to me as an A4 sheet of paper. It wasn't folded. > > Will be different across the country in each area
Probably depends on the whim of the polling clerk. Reaching new heights of election day excitement on PB, I can share with you that my ballot paper was unfolded.
> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > Voted around 6.15pm. Saw one person leave as I was arriving, and four more people arrive as I was leaving. London region ballot paper had ELEVEN independent candidates!
When I arrived at 9:30 this morning there were a couple of people voting. As I left there were 5- 10 queueing and there were a number of people clearly walking to the community centre to vote as I drove off. That’s more than the local elections a few eels ago, however they cannot have been expecting high number as they were all crammed in one room rather than the two for local elections. I am in South Gloucestershire.
Later on I was driving around Bristol for work and went past polling stations in Brislington and Clifton whilst sat in traffic and didn’t see anyone going into vote.
> @MaxPB said: > > @MaxPB said: > > > Well, Modi smashed Congress again. It shows howuch strong leadership is worth in an election. As a party we need to take a big gamble on Boris, he's not my ideal candidate for anything but we've got nothing to lose at this point. > > > > Can we really handle a war with Pakistan, though? > > One would hope. We'd get backing from India, at least.
Have to steer clear of China's investments, though, lest they be tempted to join the fray.
> > Well, Modi smashed Congress again. It shows howuch strong leadership is worth in an election. As a party we need to take a big gamble on Boris, he's not my ideal candidate for anything but we've got nothing to lose at this point.
>
>
>
> Can we really handle a war with Pakistan, though?
>
> One would hope. We'd get backing from India, at least.
Have to steer clear of China's investments, though, lest they be tempted to join the fray.
> @ydoethur said: > > @MaxPB said: > > > > @MaxPB said: > > > > > > > Well, Modi smashed Congress again. It shows howuch strong leadership is worth in an election. As a party we need to take a big gamble on Boris, he's not my ideal candidate for anything but we've got nothing to lose at this point. > > > > > > > > > > > > Can we really handle a war with Pakistan, though? > > > > > > One would hope. We'd get backing from India, at least. > > > > Have to steer clear of China's investments, though, lest they be tempted to join the fray. > > They might get in Hua-way?
Ladbrokes have a couple of markets way out of line with betfair - LD v Lab match vote is 10/11 each but LD quite odds-on on betfair. Also as mentioned below Ladbrokes 10/1 on Brexit party 20-30%. Besides above best bet to me is Conservative 10-20% at 5/4 (with a mini- saver on 20-30 at 50/1)
Am I right in saying there are no Exit poles being conducted today? if not are there any 'on day' opinion poles? or will we not get any indication, apart from the betting markets on what happened until Sunday night?
> @initforthemoney said: > Voted at 1.30. Around 30 people on the same sheet as me. The only name crossed off was my wife's and she had spoiled her ballot!
I suspect there will be a higher than normal number of spoiled ballots, but I don't think there are any markets on it.
Just been over to vote. Steady flow of people and the list from my polling district looked well annotated so a turnout in the 35-40% range here wouldn't surprise.
> @BigRich said: > Hello all, > > My first post on PB in a few years, > > Am I right in saying there are no Exit poles being conducted today? if not are there any 'on day' opinion poles? or will we not get any indication, apart from the betting markets on what happened until Sunday night?
There may be an exit poll, we're not sure. If there is, it will have been conducted today and be released at 10pm on Sunday.
Am I right in saying there are no Exit poles being conducted today? if not are there any 'on day' opinion poles? or will we not get any indication, apart from the betting markets on what happened until Sunday night?
No exit polls. The law states that no exit polls can be released until voting is complete. That will be Sunday at 10pm European time.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > He's getting sacked in the morning. > > I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this. > > A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”. > > In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole. > > The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.” > > As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man. > > https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/niall-mccrae-femi-oluwole_uk_5ce64fd4e4b0547bd1326d94
And three wazzocks on the radio gave an atrocious Jarvis Knobber song 8 out of 10. We're doomed!
> @state_go_away said: > voted at 7.25 am in East Midlands seat . Nobody else crossed off at that point. Interestingly the ballot paper was given to me unfolded
Here in Oxford, the ballot paper was folded into 3
No tellers outside my station for the first time since I moved here
> @RH1992 said: > > @RobD said: > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > Genuine question: what stops ballot boxes from being tampered with between now and Sunday? > > > > They have seals, don't they? > > Yes, and don't forget that political parties and candidates can choose to add their own seals to ballot boxes too.
That shouldn't stop the secret services....but using a pen to mark your ballot will ;-)
> @Theuniondivvie said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > He's getting sacked in the morning. > > > > I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this. > > > > A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”. > > > > In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole. > > > > The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.” > > > > As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man. > > > > https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/niall-mccrae-femi-oluwole_uk_5ce64fd4e4b0547bd1326d94 > > > Jeezo, only 29? Beer bellies and tight white t shirts just don't go. He should be sacked for that outfit alone.
> @BigRich said: > Hello all, > > My first post on PB in a few years, > > Am I right in saying there are no Exit poles being conducted today? if not are there any 'on day' opinion poles? or will we not get any indication, apart from the betting markets on what happened until Sunday night?
The single most gutting aspect of this election?
Milkshakes? Long ballot papers? Big Two parties being trounced?
> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > @BigRich said: > > Hello all, > > > > My first post on PB in a few years, > > > > Am I right in saying there are no Exit poles being conducted today? if not are there any 'on day' opinion poles? or will we not get any indication, apart from the betting markets on what happened until Sunday night? > > The single most gutting aspect of this election? > > Milkshakes? > Long ballot papers? > Big Two parties being trounced? > > No, it's not being able to stay up late tonight!
But you can stay up late on Sunday - and it is bank holiday on Monday
> @MaxPB said: > Hello all, > > > > My first post on PB in a few years, > > > > Am I right in saying there are no Exit poles being conducted today? if not are there any 'on day' opinion poles? or will we not get any indication, apart from the betting markets on what happened until Sunday night? > > No exit polls. The law states that no exit polls can be released until voting is complete. That will be Sunday at 10pm European time.
> @ydoethur said: > @ydoethur said: > > > > "There was an actual queue when I voted. > > > > Admittedly, it formed while I was there and when I first turned up the official in charge looked as though she would die of shock." > > > > ......................................................................................................................... > > > > She probably wasn't expecting you to appear in only a thong with your polling card in the crack of your arse and drinking a large milk shake !! .. > > Really, Your Grace. I am deeply offended. > > As if I would ever do something so tasteless as drink a milk shake.
> > Am I right in saying there are no Exit poles being conducted today? if not are there any 'on day' opinion poles? or will we not get any indication, apart from the betting markets on what happened until Sunday night?
>
> The single most gutting aspect of this election?
>
> Milkshakes?
> Long ballot papers?
> Big Two parties being trounced?
>
> No, it's not being able to stay up late tonight!
But you can stay up late on Sunday - and it is bank holiday on Monday
My two sons, 13 and 15, are planning to stay up on Sunday night for the results.
> @oxfordsimon said: > > @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > > @BigRich said: > > > Hello all, > > > > > > My first post on PB in a few years, > > > > > > Am I right in saying there are no Exit poles being conducted today? if not are there any 'on day' opinion poles? or will we not get any indication, apart from the betting markets on what happened until Sunday night? > > > > The single most gutting aspect of this election? > > > > Milkshakes? > > Long ballot papers? > > Big Two parties being trounced? > > > > No, it's not being able to stay up late tonight! > > But you can stay up late on Sunday - and it is bank holiday on Monday
YES!!!!!
And presumably will get the results coming in form across the EU at the same time.
> @state_go_away said: > Also bet365 have brexit party at 5/4 to get under 29.5 seats wheras betfair have them strong odds on to get less than 30 (ie same bet conditions)
Brexit Party was almost 10/1 to get 25-30% a few hours ago. Seemed like a value bet. Down to 6/1 now.
Anecdote alert - came across a lady who told me she was so frustrated with the elections as a whole they were either voting Brexit or Green. Quite the combination.
> > Am I right in saying there are no Exit poles being conducted today? if not are there any 'on day' opinion poles? or will we not get any indication, apart from the betting markets on what happened until Sunday night?
>
> The single most gutting aspect of this election?
>
> Milkshakes?
> Long ballot papers?
> Big Two parties being trounced?
>
> No, it's not being able to stay up late tonight!
But you can stay up late on Sunday - and it is bank holiday on Monday
My two sons, 13 and 15, are planning to stay up on Sunday night for the results.
The future is looking good for amatuer psephologists, excellent.
> @AndyJS said: > > @state_go_away said: > > Also bet365 have brexit party at 5/4 to get under 29.5 seats wheras betfair have them strong odds on to get less than 30 (ie same bet conditions) > > Brexit Party was almost 10/1 to get 25-30% a few hours ago. Seemed like a value bet. Down to 6/1 now.
This bet has been boosted! 20-30% (Brexit Party UK Vote Share) 11/1 2019 UK European Elections Stake £15.00 Returns £180.00
> I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this.
>
> A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”.
>
> In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole.
>
> The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.”
>
> As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man.
> @ydoethur said: > > If they're anything like ours are set to be, come Monday morning there will be no EU. > > However, that seems a little unlikely.
------- Hmm, I think you'd find that even if 100% of the MEPs wanted to abolish the EU, they wouldn't be able to agree on how to do it or what to replace it with, and they'd quickly realise it would have consequences they don't want.
> @MikeSmithson said: > Just taken 8 on Betfair on the Brexit party being in the 25-30% range.
Well sure, UKIP were well below the poll average last time, if TBP are only in the mid 20s and the Lib Dems are really close, it will really change the mood music...
It is such a long time since the Lib Dems made much progress that I can't help but feel sceptical, but honestly we are getting really positive reports. Still I wonder "but is this another damp squib?". We think the vote is coming out for us, but the voters fib so often...
Can we believe these numbers? I just don't know. If we run TBP that close then everything changes.
> I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this.
>
> A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”.
>
> In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole.
>
> The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.”
>
> As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man.
> @ydoethur said: > The message I'm getting from people on the ground Bedford is of a turnout perhaps lower than the 37% in the local elections three weeks ago. So the polls have to be looked at in that context. Today's Ipsos had 60% saying certain to vote > > About the only thing we can be sure of after the last five years is that all polls are talking bollocks. > > While I wouldn't be surprised if turnout was up on before, 60%?! Really?! That's higher than in some recent general elections.
The final YouGov had "certain to vote" turnout at 54%, with 61% of 2016 Remain voters being "certain voters" and 63% of Leave voters.
54% is not light years away from a 35%-40% turnout if that's the range. Poll responses have exaggerated turnout since time immemorial, and that difference is not especially stark.
It will be very difficult for all polls to be "talking bollocks" this time, if only because there has been no noticeable clustering between the different companies. Someone is bound to come up roses. I expect YouGov to do pretty well, because their weighting scheme as revealed in the final two pages of their polls is much more refined than some, for example including factors such as level of education and political engagement.
The only bet I have is that Labour will be in the 10-20% range (at 10/11) and I'm pretty confident of that.
> Just taken 8 on Betfair on the Brexit party being in the 25-30% range.
Well sure, UKIP were well below the poll average last time, if TBP are only in the mid 20s and the Lib Dems are really close, it will really change the mood music...
It is such a long time since the Lib Dems made much progress that I can't help but feel sceptical, but honestly we are getting really positive reports. Still I wonder "but is this another damp squib?". We think the vote is coming out for us, but the voters fib so often...
Can we believe these numbers? I just don't know. If we run TBP that close then everything changes.
Well we used to wait for “the late Serge” to come out and vote!
Voted with family at just after 6pm. Steady flow of people at the Lincolnshire village hall. At a rough guess about 25-30% of the names on my sheet had been marked off.
> @Charles said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > He's getting sacked in the morning. > > > > > > I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this. > > > > > > A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”. > > > > > > In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole. > > > > > > The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.” > > > > > > As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man. > > > > > > https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/niall-mccrae-femi-oluwole_uk_5ce64fd4e4b0547bd1326d94 > > > > I saw that video. He was bloody offensive and the target of his abuse was extremely calm and polite throughout. > > I’m still uncomfortable with this desire to sack people who you disagree with. It’s attempting to silence and intimidate opponents
I am undecided on that and was making no comment on the fact he was reportedly going to be sacked. Just the fact that a less reserved target might have punched him in the face for the abuse he was getting.
If throwing milkshake over Farage was out of order (and it was) then this certainly was as well.
> > Am I right in saying there are no Exit poles being conducted today? if not are there any 'on day' opinion poles? or will we not get any indication, apart from the betting markets on what happened until Sunday night?
>
> The single most gutting aspect of this election?
>
> Milkshakes?
> Long ballot papers?
> Big Two parties being trounced?
>
> No, it's not being able to stay up late tonight!
But you can stay up late on Sunday - and it is bank holiday on Monday
A client has just requested my presence at an urgent all day meeting on Monday 🤯
Labour 5 seats (+2) Cristian Democrats : 4 (-1) People's Party for Freedom and Democracy 4 (+1) Greens Left 3 (+1) Forum for Democracy 3 (+3) D66 2 (-2) Party of Freedom 1 (-3) Socialist - 1 (-1) 50+ 1 (+1) Party for Animals 0 (-1)
To all the people making comments like: "foreigners should check the rules before polling day" I disagree. I've been living in Germany for 3 years, and I know I have the right to vote in local and EU elections, as a non-German EU citizen resident in Germany The last local elections I just got sent a polling card without me having to do anything and voted without any problem I assumed it would be the same for the EU elections.
A month ago identical envelopes arrived for me and my German wife. In hers was a polli g card for the EU ections, but I was surprised that when I opened mine instead of a polling card there was a letter explaining that if I wanted to vote in Germany I would have to fill in and sign a certain form and get it to a certain office by 5th May. Now, I think I am a bit more politically involved than the average voter and if I had just received a polling card, it would never have occurred to us to check if there's some extra paperwork to fill in And I really doubt 99. 9% of people would without being told.
Which is exactly why they send a letter to people. It's not difficult to understand
Or are the people saying "it's their own fault for not checking the rules" doing sarcastic impressions of Vogon commanders about to demolish Earth? Hard to tell these days.
In the end I decided to organise a UK postal vote instead.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > My first impression is that the FvD would be disappointed with that result if it is correct given how well they did in the local elections in March.
From what I read, Baudet did badly in the debate with Rutte so that might have something to do with it. He was trying to cast doubt on Russia's responsibility for the shooting down of MH17.
FWIW, here in Reading the Polling Clerks are saying that turnout is UP on the locals three weeks ago. That was about 33% across the town, if I remember correctly.
> I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this.
>
> A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”.
>
> In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole.
>
> The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.”
>
> As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man.
> I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this.
>
> A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”.
>
> In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole.
>
> The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.”
>
> As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man.
Looks like the British law is a classic example of taking an EU regulation then going way beyond what was needed. The Blair Gov't was very fond of that iirc.
Don't see anything there limiting it to the UK's results, so does that mean sharing the Dutch exit poll here is illegal in the UK? (He says basking in the warmth of the First Amendment.)
> @BigRich said: > > @AndreaParma_82 said: > > Netherlands exit poll (IPSOS) > > > > Labour 5 seats (+2) > > Cristian Democrats : 4 (-1) > > People's Party for Freedom and Democracy 4 (+1) > > Greens Left 3 (+1) > > Forum for Democracy 3 (+3) > > D66 2 (-2) > > Party of Freedom 1 (-3) > > Socialist - 1 (-1) > > 50+ 1 (+1) > > Party for Animals 0 (-1) > > > > > > Turnout: 40% > > > > > > If I recall correctly, that would mean that 'Forum for Democracy' have fallen short of there expectations based on Opinion poling a few weeks ago,
Yes, every poll in the campaign had them on at least 13%, most had them around 15%. 11% would be pretty disappointing, and 4th place when they were a close 2nd in the polls likewise.
My mum, slightly against my expectations, tells me that she went ahead and spoiled her ballot paper. She thinks that both my sisters and brothers in law have done the same.
Those are five normally rock solid Conservative voters.
> Very few at my polling station at 7.40pm. About 20% of names crossed off on the pages I could see.
>
> No tellers.
Went to vote about 5pm, similar experience (albeit earlier in the evening, and very few names indeed crossed off.) No tellers here either.
Would not be surprised if turnout was low or very low in this part of the world (North Herts,) but I guess we'll find out soon enough.
I went to vote at the usual place about 11am, but it was shut. Why do they need a different place for EU elections? Instead of causing no hassle to anyone, voters were getting in the way of the Sports Centre users.
It feels so anti-climactic to have a vote today and then no counts or any results (not even council results) to watch tonight. Even worse I've now been invited to a barbecue on Sunday evening and might miss Daniel Hannan losing his seat.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > My mum, slightly against my expectations, tells me that she went ahead and spoiled her ballot paper. She thinks that both my sisters and brothers in law have done the same. > > Those are five normally rock solid Conservative voters.
I wanted to do that but chickened out. It felt childish.
So I very reluctantly voted Conservative, and then immediately regretted it.
> @Mauve said: > It feels so anti-climactic to have a vote today and then no counts or any results (not even council results) to watch tonight. Even worse I've now been invited to a barbecue on Sunday evening and might miss Daniel Hannan losing his seat.
> @AnneJGP said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > Very few at my polling station at 7.40pm. About 20% of names crossed off on the pages I could see. > > > > > > No tellers. > > > > Went to vote about 5pm, similar experience (albeit earlier in the evening, and very few names indeed crossed off.) No tellers here either. > > > > Would not be surprised if turnout was low or very low in this part of the world (North Herts,) but I guess we'll find out soon enough. > > I went to vote at the usual place about 11am, but it was shut. Why do they need a different place for EU elections? Instead of causing no hassle to anyone, voters were getting in the way of the Sports Centre users. > > Good evening, everyone.
Oh. I went to the usual primary school (having to cope with kiddie care for this exceptionally pointless election must be even more galling than usual for the parents.) And the polling station was very, very dead.
On a slight tangent to the polls, do we think the usual politico journo tweeters will have a flood of interesting breathless twitter rumours flooding out at 5 past 10 tonight, or is it all going to wait till tomorrow/Monday now?
My mum, slightly against my expectations, tells me that she went ahead and spoiled her ballot paper. She thinks that both my sisters and brothers in law have done the same.
Those are five normally rock solid Conservative voters.
Fwiw I drew a huge penis across the ballot paper this morning, I've never spoiled my ballot paper before.
I think the blue team are in very big trouble today and 10/1 on BP to finish on 20-30% is very generous indeed.
> @Alistair said: > Turnout anecdote from the constituencies former MSP > > https://twitter.com/MarcoGBiagi/status/1131629298417373185 > > > > Edinburgh turnout at the 2014 euros was 41.6%, Scotland turnout was 33%. > > 2016 Edinburgh Central turnout was 57.3% > > That's... Big. Very good for the greens in Scotland.
Agreed.
Despite polling just 3% - 7% in the three full-sample Scottish polls, my gut feeling is that the Scottish Greens might just get an MEP. It is tremendously difficult to call: they *could* get one MEP on as low as 6.5% of the national vote; but they *could* fail to get an MEP on as high as 14%!! Daft voting system.
> @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > #5 was matched at 20.0 for the PvDA. The only match. > > They can be thankful the price of their idiocy is only £95
WHat price do you think the PvDA should have been at ?
> @Pulpstar said: > > @Mauve said: > > It feels so anti-climactic to have a vote today and then no counts or any results (not even council results) to watch tonight. Even worse I've now been invited to a barbecue on Sunday evening and might miss Daniel Hannan losing his seat. > > Dan losing his seat is extremely unlikely.
Yes, although if the Tories poll toward the bottom end of expectations (a la YouGov and Ipsos) then he may find he has no colleagues left.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @Mauve said: > > It feels so anti-climactic to have a vote today and then no counts or any results (not even council results) to watch tonight. Even worse I've now been invited to a barbecue on Sunday evening and might miss Daniel Hannan losing his seat. > > Dan losing his seat is extremely unlikely.
I might have just voted to effectively return Nirj Deva and lose my 12/1 bet on Conservatives <10%.
> @solarflare said: > On a slight tangent to the polls, do we think the usual politico journo tweeters will have a flood of interesting breathless twitter rumours flooding out at 5 past 10 tonight, or is it all going to wait till tomorrow/Monday now?
They'll probably be tweeting about how May is about to resign after half the Cabinet threaten to quit. I'm sure there will be rumours of a 1922 Committee rule change later as well, after they've been plied with enough booze in the pub.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @williamglenn said: > > If Conservative ballot-spoilers are a bigger factor than anticipated, perhaps the Brexit Party is being overestimated. > > None of these were potential Brexit party voters.
The people on the polling panels who represent them might be though...
> @MaxPB said: > My mum, slightly against my expectations, tells me that she went ahead and spoiled her ballot paper. She thinks that both my sisters and brothers in law have done the same. > > > > Those are five normally rock solid Conservative voters. > > Fwiw I drew a huge penis across the ballot paper this morning, I've never spoiled my ballot paper before. > > I think the blue team are in very big trouble today and 10/1 on BP to finish on 20-30% is very generous indeed.
> @kle4 said: > Anecdote alert - came across a lady who told me she was so frustrated with the elections as a whole they were either voting Brexit or Green. Quite the combination.<
+++++
Not that weird, that was pretty much my choice. Either them, or a spoilt ballot.
Comments
That's lengthened from the 8/1 I took.
Blair's undemocratic cronyismoops, European elections work."There was an actual queue when I voted.
Admittedly, it formed while I was there and when I first turned up the official in charge looked as though she would die of shock."
.........................................................................................................................
She probably wasn't expecting you to appear in only a thong with your polling card in the crack of your arse and drinking a large milk shake !! ..
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > As you unfold the ballot paper the eye is drawn to the Labour/brexit party area. Top of the second half of the ballot is good
> >
> > Mine was given to me as an A4 sheet of paper. It wasn't folded.
>
> Will be different across the country in each area
Probably depends on the whim of the polling clerk. Reaching new heights of election day excitement on PB, I can share with you that my ballot paper was unfolded.
> Voted around 6.15pm. Saw one person leave as I was arriving, and four more people arrive as I was leaving. London region ballot paper had ELEVEN independent candidates!
When I arrived at 9:30 this morning there were a couple of people voting. As I left there were 5- 10 queueing and there were a number of people clearly walking to the community centre to vote as I drove off. That’s more than the local elections a few eels ago, however they cannot have been expecting high number as they were all crammed in one room rather than the two for local elections. I am in South Gloucestershire.
Later on I was driving around Bristol for work and went past polling stations in Brislington and Clifton whilst sat in traffic and didn’t see anyone going into vote.
> > @MaxPB said:
>
> > Well, Modi smashed Congress again. It shows howuch strong leadership is worth in an election. As a party we need to take a big gamble on Boris, he's not my ideal candidate for anything but we've got nothing to lose at this point.
>
>
>
> Can we really handle a war with Pakistan, though?
>
> One would hope. We'd get backing from India, at least.
Have to steer clear of China's investments, though, lest they be tempted to join the fray.
As if I would ever do something so tasteless as drink a milk shake.
> > @MaxPB said:
>
> > > @MaxPB said:
>
> >
>
> > > Well, Modi smashed Congress again. It shows howuch strong leadership is worth in an election. As a party we need to take a big gamble on Boris, he's not my ideal candidate for anything but we've got nothing to lose at this point.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Can we really handle a war with Pakistan, though?
>
> >
>
> > One would hope. We'd get backing from India, at least.
>
>
>
> Have to steer clear of China's investments, though, lest they be tempted to join the fray.
>
> They might get in Hua-way?
The Karakoram Hua-way?
Besides above best bet to me is Conservative 10-20% at 5/4 (with a mini- saver on 20-30 at 50/1)
My first post on PB in a few years,
Am I right in saying there are no Exit poles being conducted today? if not are there any 'on day' opinion poles? or will we not get any indication, apart from the betting markets on what happened until Sunday night?
> Voted at 1.30. Around 30 people on the same sheet as me. The only name crossed off was my wife's and she had spoiled her ballot!
I suspect there will be a higher than normal number of spoiled ballots, but I don't think there are any markets on it.
> Hello all,
>
> My first post on PB in a few years,
>
> Am I right in saying there are no Exit poles being conducted today? if not are there any 'on day' opinion poles? or will we not get any indication, apart from the betting markets on what happened until Sunday night?
There may be an exit poll, we're not sure. If there is, it will have been conducted today and be released at 10pm on Sunday.
> He's getting sacked in the morning.
>
> I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this.
>
> A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”.
>
> In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole.
>
> The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.”
>
> As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man.
>
> https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/niall-mccrae-femi-oluwole_uk_5ce64fd4e4b0547bd1326d94
And three wazzocks on the radio gave an atrocious Jarvis Knobber song 8 out of 10. We're doomed!
> voted at 7.25 am in East Midlands seat . Nobody else crossed off at that point. Interestingly the ballot paper was given to me unfolded
Here in Oxford, the ballot paper was folded into 3
No tellers outside my station for the first time since I moved here
> > @RobD said:
> > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > Genuine question: what stops ballot boxes from being tampered with between now and Sunday?
> >
> > They have seals, don't they?
>
> Yes, and don't forget that political parties and candidates can choose to add their own seals to ballot boxes too.
That shouldn't stop the secret services....but using a pen to mark your ballot will ;-)
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > He's getting sacked in the morning.
> >
> > I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this.
> >
> > A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”.
> >
> > In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole.
> >
> > The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.”
> >
> > As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man.
> >
> > https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/niall-mccrae-femi-oluwole_uk_5ce64fd4e4b0547bd1326d94
>
>
> Jeezo, only 29? Beer bellies and tight white t shirts just don't go. He should be sacked for that outfit alone.
It says the gentleman with the desk was 29.
> Hello all,
>
> My first post on PB in a few years,
>
> Am I right in saying there are no Exit poles being conducted today? if not are there any 'on day' opinion poles? or will we not get any indication, apart from the betting markets on what happened until Sunday night?
The single most gutting aspect of this election?
Milkshakes?
Long ballot papers?
Big Two parties being trounced?
No, it's not being able to stay up late tonight!
> > @BigRich said:
> > Hello all,
> >
> > My first post on PB in a few years,
> >
> > Am I right in saying there are no Exit poles being conducted today? if not are there any 'on day' opinion poles? or will we not get any indication, apart from the betting markets on what happened until Sunday night?
>
> The single most gutting aspect of this election?
>
> Milkshakes?
> Long ballot papers?
> Big Two parties being trounced?
>
> No, it's not being able to stay up late tonight!
But you can stay up late on Sunday - and it is bank holiday on Monday
> Hello all,
>
>
>
> My first post on PB in a few years,
>
>
>
> Am I right in saying there are no Exit poles being conducted today? if not are there any 'on day' opinion poles? or will we not get any indication, apart from the betting markets on what happened until Sunday night?
>
> No exit polls. The law states that no exit polls can be released until voting is complete. That will be Sunday at 10pm European time.
Thanks
> @ydoethur said:
>
>
>
> "There was an actual queue when I voted.
>
>
>
> Admittedly, it formed while I was there and when I first turned up the official in charge looked as though she would die of shock."
>
>
>
> .........................................................................................................................
>
>
>
> She probably wasn't expecting you to appear in only a thong with your polling card in the crack of your arse and drinking a large milk shake !! ..
>
> Really, Your Grace. I am deeply offended.
>
> As if I would ever do something so tasteless as drink a milk shake.
You can drink a milkshake? Who knew....
> > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> > > @BigRich said:
> > > Hello all,
> > >
> > > My first post on PB in a few years,
> > >
> > > Am I right in saying there are no Exit poles being conducted today? if not are there any 'on day' opinion poles? or will we not get any indication, apart from the betting markets on what happened until Sunday night?
> >
> > The single most gutting aspect of this election?
> >
> > Milkshakes?
> > Long ballot papers?
> > Big Two parties being trounced?
> >
> > No, it's not being able to stay up late tonight!
>
> But you can stay up late on Sunday - and it is bank holiday on Monday
YES!!!!!
And presumably will get the results coming in form across the EU at the same time.
> Also bet365 have brexit party at 5/4 to get under 29.5 seats wheras betfair have them strong odds on to get less than 30 (ie same bet conditions)
Brexit Party was almost 10/1 to get 25-30% a few hours ago. Seemed like a value bet. Down to 6/1 now.
>
> My two sons, 13 and 15, are planning to stay up on Sunday night for the results.
-------
I hope the broadcasters make an effort to cover results from the rest of the EU.
However, that seems a little unlikely.
> > @state_go_away said:
> > Also bet365 have brexit party at 5/4 to get under 29.5 seats wheras betfair have them strong odds on to get less than 30 (ie same bet conditions)
>
> Brexit Party was almost 10/1 to get 25-30% a few hours ago. Seemed like a value bet. Down to 6/1 now.
This bet has been boosted!
20-30%
(Brexit Party UK Vote Share)
11/1
2019 UK European Elections
Stake
£15.00
Returns
£180.00
>
> If they're anything like ours are set to be, come Monday morning there will be no EU.
>
> However, that seems a little unlikely.
-------
Hmm, I think you'd find that even if 100% of the MEPs wanted to abolish the EU, they wouldn't be able to agree on how to do it or what to replace it with, and they'd quickly realise it would have consequences they don't want.
> Just taken 8 on Betfair on the Brexit party being in the 25-30% range.
Well sure, UKIP were well below the poll average last time, if TBP are only in the mid 20s and the Lib Dems are really close, it will really change the mood music...
It is such a long time since the Lib Dems made much progress that I can't help but feel sceptical, but honestly we are getting really positive reports. Still I wonder "but is this another damp squib?". We think the vote is coming out for us, but the voters fib so often...
Can we believe these numbers? I just don't know. If we run TBP that close then everything changes.
I shed no tears for the woman who was sacked for wishing Farage had been milkshaked with acid.
> The message I'm getting from people on the ground Bedford is of a turnout perhaps lower than the 37% in the local elections three weeks ago. So the polls have to be looked at in that context. Today's Ipsos had 60% saying certain to vote
>
> About the only thing we can be sure of after the last five years is that all polls are talking bollocks.
>
> While I wouldn't be surprised if turnout was up on before, 60%?! Really?! That's higher than in some recent general elections.
The final YouGov had "certain to vote" turnout at 54%, with 61% of 2016 Remain voters being "certain voters" and 63% of Leave voters.
54% is not light years away from a 35%-40% turnout if that's the range. Poll responses have exaggerated turnout since time immemorial, and that difference is not especially stark.
It will be very difficult for all polls to be "talking bollocks" this time, if only because there has been no noticeable clustering between the different companies. Someone is bound to come up roses. I expect YouGov to do pretty well, because their weighting scheme as revealed in the final two pages of their polls is much more refined than some, for example including factors such as level of education and political engagement.
The only bet I have is that Labour will be in the 10-20% range (at 10/11) and I'm pretty confident of that.
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1131637076619870209
> Oh, we have an exit poll from the Netherlands:
>
> https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1131637076619870209
Illegal, surely?
>
> Illegal, surely?
I guess this is an issue of national law, so probably not.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > He's getting sacked in the morning.
>
> >
>
> > I do worry for this country, from milkshakes to this.
>
> >
>
> > A King’s College London academic who specialises in mental health has been filmed at a Brexit Party rally on Tuesday apparently calling a Remain activist a “fucking traitor”.
>
> >
>
> > In the clip posted on Twitter, Dr Niall McCrae can be seen shouting and poking a Union Jack flag in the face of Femi Oluwole.
>
> >
>
> > The 29-year-old Remain campaigner had set up a desk outside the event with a sign that read: “A no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK. Change my mind.”
>
> >
>
> > As McCrae repeatedly shouts “fucking traitor”, another man throws water from a bottle over Oluwole. McCrae is later seen in the video shaking hands with the man.
>
> >
>
> > https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/niall-mccrae-femi-oluwole_uk_5ce64fd4e4b0547bd1326d94
>
>
>
> I saw that video. He was bloody offensive and the target of his abuse was extremely calm and polite throughout.
>
> I’m still uncomfortable with this desire to sack people who you disagree with. It’s attempting to silence and intimidate opponents
I am undecided on that and was making no comment on the fact he was reportedly going to be sacked. Just the fact that a less reserved target might have punched him in the face for the abuse he was getting.
If throwing milkshake over Farage was out of order (and it was) then this certainly was as well.
A work colleague came up to me and asked who she should vote for. I told her I had no idea and didn't think there were any good options right now.
Perhaps I'd still be on the list from my old address. Do spoilt ballots get counted?
> Oh, we have an exit poll from the Netherlands:
>
> https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1131637076619870209
My first impression is that the FvD would be disappointed with that result if it is correct given how well they did in the local elections in March.
Labour 5 seats (+2)
Cristian Democrats : 4 (-1)
People's Party for Freedom and Democracy 4 (+1)
Greens Left 3 (+1)
Forum for Democracy 3 (+3)
D66 2 (-2)
Party of Freedom 1 (-3)
Socialist - 1 (-1)
50+ 1 (+1)
Party for Animals 0 (-1)
Turnout: 40%
I've been living in Germany for 3 years, and I know I have the right to vote in local and EU elections, as a non-German EU citizen resident in Germany The last local elections I just got sent a polling card without me having to do anything and voted without any problem I assumed it would be the same for the EU elections.
A month ago identical envelopes arrived for me and my German wife. In hers was a polli g card for the EU ections, but I was surprised that when I opened mine instead of a polling card there was a letter explaining that if I wanted to vote in Germany I would have to fill in and sign a certain form and get it to a certain office by 5th May. Now, I think I am a bit more politically involved than the average voter and if I had just received a polling card, it would never have occurred to us to check if there's some extra paperwork to fill in And I really doubt 99. 9% of people would without being told.
Which is exactly why they send a letter to people. It's not difficult to understand
Or are the people saying "it's their own fault for not checking the rules" doing sarcastic impressions of Vogon commanders about to demolish Earth? Hard to tell these days.
In the end I decided to organise a UK postal vote instead.
>
> My first impression is that the FvD would be disappointed with that result if it is correct given how well they did in the local elections in March.
From what I read, Baudet did badly in the debate with Rutte so that might have something to do with it. He was trying to cast doubt on Russia's responsibility for the shooting down of MH17.
> Netherlands exit poll (IPSOS)
>
> PvdA-S&D: 5 seats (+2)
> CDA-EPP: 4 (-1)
> VVD-ALDE: 4 (+1)
> GL-G/EFA: 3 (+1)
> FvD-ECR: 3 (+3)
> D66-ALDE: 2 (-2)
> PVV-ENF: 1 (-3)
> SP-LEFT: 1 (-1)
> 50+-EPP: 1 (+1)
> PvdD-LEFT: 0 (-1)
>
> Turnout: 40%
PvdA were neither leading or even 2nd in any of the 6 polls taken during the campaign. They were only even 3rd place in 3 of them. Wild!
Being sacked for being an obnoxious fat bastard isn’t right
No tellers.
> Netherlands exit poll (IPSOS)
>
> Labour 5 seats (+2)
> Cristian Democrats : 4 (-1)
> People's Party for Freedom and Democracy 4 (+1)
> Greens Left 3 (+1)
> Forum for Democracy 3 (+3)
> D66 2 (-2)
> Party of Freedom 1 (-3)
> Socialist - 1 (-1)
> 50+ 1 (+1)
> Party for Animals 0 (-1)
>
>
> Turnout: 40%
>
>
I thought exit polls were supposed to be secret until Sunday night.
> Netherlands exit poll (IPSOS)
>
> Labour 5 seats (+2)
> Cristian Democrats : 4 (-1)
> People's Party for Freedom and Democracy 4 (+1)
> Greens Left 3 (+1)
> Forum for Democracy 3 (+3)
> D66 2 (-2)
> Party of Freedom 1 (-3)
> Socialist - 1 (-1)
> 50+ 1 (+1)
> Party for Animals 0 (-1)
>
>
> Turnout: 40%
>
>
If I recall correctly, that would mean that 'Forum for Democracy' have fallen short of there expectations based on Opinion poling a few weeks ago,
https://twitter.com/MarcoGBiagi/status/1131629298417373185?s=19
Edinburgh turnout at the 2014 euros was 41.6%, Scotland turnout was 33%.
2016 Edinburgh Central turnout was 57.3%
That's... Big. Very good for the greens in Scotland.
Fallon: Thatcher didn't cling on like this. We need a Brexiteer to lead us out of this paralysis
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1131643587844890624
That's a UK Statutory Instrument - 2004 no. 293. Presumably a bit of good old gold-plating, if the Dutch are allowed exit polls.
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > Netherlands exit poll (IPSOS)
> >
> > Labour 5 seats (+2)
> > Cristian Democrats : 4 (-1)
> > People's Party for Freedom and Democracy 4 (+1)
> > Greens Left 3 (+1)
> > Forum for Democracy 3 (+3)
> > D66 2 (-2)
> > Party of Freedom 1 (-3)
> > Socialist - 1 (-1)
> > 50+ 1 (+1)
> > Party for Animals 0 (-1)
> >
> >
> > Turnout: 40%
> >
> >
>
> I thought exit polls were supposed to be secret until Sunday night.
They are but the Dutch have just won Eurovision for the first time in 45 years so they don’t care!
> Very few at my polling station at 7.40pm. About 20% of names crossed off on the pages I could see.
>
> No tellers.
Went to vote about 5pm, similar experience (albeit earlier in the evening, and very few names indeed crossed off.) No tellers here either.
Would not be surprised if turnout was low or very low in this part of the world (North Herts,) but I guess we'll find out soon enough.
The Blair Gov't was very fond of that iirc.
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1131645695486828545?s=21
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1131643587844890624
>
> That's a UK Statutory Instrument - 2004 no. 293. Presumably a bit of good old gold-plating, if the Dutch are allowed exit polls.
Don't see anything there limiting it to the UK's results, so does that mean sharing the Dutch exit poll here is illegal in the UK? (He says basking in the warmth of the First Amendment.)
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > Netherlands exit poll (IPSOS)
> >
> > Labour 5 seats (+2)
> > Cristian Democrats : 4 (-1)
> > People's Party for Freedom and Democracy 4 (+1)
> > Greens Left 3 (+1)
> > Forum for Democracy 3 (+3)
> > D66 2 (-2)
> > Party of Freedom 1 (-3)
> > Socialist - 1 (-1)
> > 50+ 1 (+1)
> > Party for Animals 0 (-1)
> >
> >
> > Turnout: 40%
> >
> >
>
> If I recall correctly, that would mean that 'Forum for Democracy' have fallen short of there expectations based on Opinion poling a few weeks ago,
Yes, every poll in the campaign had them on at least 13%, most had them around 15%. 11% would be pretty disappointing, and 4th place when they were a close 2nd in the polls likewise.
Those are five normally rock solid Conservative voters.
Good evening, everyone.
> My mum, slightly against my expectations, tells me that she went ahead and spoiled her ballot paper. She thinks that both my sisters and brothers in law have done the same.
>
> Those are five normally rock solid Conservative voters.
I wanted to do that but chickened out. It felt childish.
So I very reluctantly voted Conservative, and then immediately regretted it.
> It feels so anti-climactic to have a vote today and then no counts or any results (not even council results) to watch tonight. Even worse I've now been invited to a barbecue on Sunday evening and might miss Daniel Hannan losing his seat.
Dan losing his seat is extremely unlikely.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > Very few at my polling station at 7.40pm. About 20% of names crossed off on the pages I could see.
>
> >
>
> > No tellers.
>
>
>
> Went to vote about 5pm, similar experience (albeit earlier in the evening, and very few names indeed crossed off.) No tellers here either.
>
>
>
> Would not be surprised if turnout was low or very low in this part of the world (North Herts,) but I guess we'll find out soon enough.
>
> I went to vote at the usual place about 11am, but it was shut. Why do they need a different place for EU elections? Instead of causing no hassle to anyone, voters were getting in the way of the Sports Centre users.
>
> Good evening, everyone.
Oh. I went to the usual primary school (having to cope with kiddie care for this exceptionally pointless election must be even more galling than usual for the parents.) And the polling station was very, very dead.
And good evening to you too.
> #5 was matched at 20.0 for the PvDA. The only match.
They can be thankful the price of their idiocy is only £95
I think the blue team are in very big trouble today and 10/1 on BP to finish on 20-30% is very generous indeed.
> Turnout anecdote from the constituencies former MSP
>
> https://twitter.com/MarcoGBiagi/status/1131629298417373185
>
>
>
> Edinburgh turnout at the 2014 euros was 41.6%, Scotland turnout was 33%.
>
> 2016 Edinburgh Central turnout was 57.3%
>
> That's... Big. Very good for the greens in Scotland.
Agreed.
Despite polling just 3% - 7% in the three full-sample Scottish polls, my gut feeling is that the Scottish Greens might just get an MEP. It is tremendously difficult to call: they *could* get one MEP on as low as 6.5% of the national vote; but they *could* fail to get an MEP on as high as 14%!! Daft voting system.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > #5 was matched at 20.0 for the PvDA. The only match.
>
> They can be thankful the price of their idiocy is only £95
WHat price do you think the PvDA should have been at ?
> > @Mauve said:
> > It feels so anti-climactic to have a vote today and then no counts or any results (not even council results) to watch tonight. Even worse I've now been invited to a barbecue on Sunday evening and might miss Daniel Hannan losing his seat.
>
> Dan losing his seat is extremely unlikely.
Yes, although if the Tories poll toward the bottom end of expectations (a la YouGov and Ipsos) then he may find he has no colleagues left.
> If Conservative ballot-spoilers are a bigger factor than anticipated, perhaps the Brexit Party is being overestimated.
None of these were potential Brexit party voters. FWIW they divide three Leave two Remain.
> > @Mauve said:
> > It feels so anti-climactic to have a vote today and then no counts or any results (not even council results) to watch tonight. Even worse I've now been invited to a barbecue on Sunday evening and might miss Daniel Hannan losing his seat.
>
> Dan losing his seat is extremely unlikely.
I might have just voted to effectively return Nirj Deva and lose my 12/1 bet on Conservatives <10%.
Why do I do this?
> On a slight tangent to the polls, do we think the usual politico journo tweeters will have a flood of interesting breathless twitter rumours flooding out at 5 past 10 tonight, or is it all going to wait till tomorrow/Monday now?
They'll probably be tweeting about how May is about to resign after half the Cabinet threaten to quit. I'm sure there will be rumours of a 1922 Committee rule change later as well, after they've been plied with enough booze in the pub.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > If Conservative ballot-spoilers are a bigger factor than anticipated, perhaps the Brexit Party is being overestimated.
>
> None of these were potential Brexit party voters.
The people on the polling panels who represent them might be though...
> My mum, slightly against my expectations, tells me that she went ahead and spoiled her ballot paper. She thinks that both my sisters and brothers in law have done the same.
>
>
>
> Those are five normally rock solid Conservative voters.
>
> Fwiw I drew a huge penis across the ballot paper this morning, I've never spoiled my ballot paper before.
>
> I think the blue team are in very big trouble today and 10/1 on BP to finish on 20-30% is very generous indeed.
was it circumcised?
> Anecdote alert - came across a lady who told me she was so frustrated with the elections as a whole they were either voting Brexit or Green. Quite the combination.<
+++++
Not that weird, that was pretty much my choice. Either them, or a spoilt ballot.
Both Nige and the greens have compelling narratives this election.
Change UK's lack of a logo is going to kill them - could well benefit the Lib Dems.