> @HYUFD said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory. > > > > > > > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since. > > > > > > > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed. > > > > > > > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for. > > > > > > By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed. > > > > > > Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway > > > > You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is. > > > > Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings > > We do, Macron will veto further extension and it will be No Deal under a new Tory PM if the WA has not passed by then. The only way to stop it would be Tory MPs like Grieve voting to make Corbyn PM to try and force a further extension and if Macron has vetoed a revoke vote
as it is said of some of my surgical colleagues, "often wrong, but never in doubt"
> @edmundintokyo said: > > @solarflare said: > > If Brexit isn't resolved there's no way this parliament limps on until 2022. The government will either collapse like a house of cards, or endure death by a thousand cuts, but either way it won't survive. There's too much pressure applied, particularly near Brexit deadlines, and they're already badly weakened. > > > > I could only see it limping along till 2022 if some of that pressure was vented and the withdrawal agreement somehow snuck over the line, May exited stage left, the talks with Europe and the future relationship then went on quietly in the background and the political discussion returned temporarily to domestic matters, but I don't see that happening and even then the new Tory leader will still be thinking about a GE. > > The government doesn't just explode from too much pressure though. A specific thing has to happen: > > 1) PM calls an election, and opposition agrees. But if the government is badly weakened, the PM won't call an election they would lose > 2) DUP pulls the plug. Why? They're still getting paid > 3) Some Con MPs bolt. But it's career suicide, and all their friends and colleagues will hate them. Could happen but needs severe provocation by the PM, who will generally choose not to provoke > 4) Enough Con MPs die or get long prison sentences that Con+DUP isn't enough. But MPs are healthier and more careful than they used to be, and minibuses are built tough
I'm thinking of (3) particularly.
If this situation limps on indefinitely I think the government will eventually lose a VONC. It will either lose it by a couple of votes or so because individual MPs defect or simply withhold support, or it will lose by a huge chunk as an ERG-type bloc of MPs just call enough.
You say "needs severe provocation by the PM, who will generally choose not to provoke" - well, if you believe all the twitterati yesterday there are certainly plenty of Tories sounding quite provoked and provocative.
> Not a HUGE fan of George Osborne (tho he would have made a much better premier than T May), but if any journalist in Fleet Street is well connected in Tory circles, it is him. So that sounds kosher, and reliable. And it makes sense.
>
> I pity - again - poor Teresa. My God, what will that State Visit with Trump be like? He openly despises "losers". She is the epitome of a loser. And she has to host him??
>
> If I were Philip May, I would advise her to step down this weekend, and get a caretaker. The humiliation is not worth the extra two weeks of power. It really is not.
You can imagine Donald telling her she should have took his advice on how to deal with the EU.
If I were her I'd get out before Trump's visit; she does not deserve the humiliation of having to listen to explain how much better he'd have handled things.
> @Byronic said: > > @Scott_P said: > > https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1131631187066314752<; > > > ++++ > > Not a HUGE fan of George Osborne (tho he would have made a much better premier than T May), but if any journalist in Fleet Street is well connected in Tory circles, it is him. So that sounds kosher, and reliable. And it makes sense. > > I pity - again - poor Teresa. My God, what will that State Visit with Trump be like? He openly despises "losers". She is the epitome of a loser. And she has to host him?? > > If I were Philip May, I would advise her to step down this weekend, and get a caretaker. The humiliation is not worth the extra two weeks of power. It really is not.
> @Benpointer said: > Defections to CUK or, more likely now, the LDs could be the route to Cons losing their majority.
At this point I think they're more likely to lose it from the other end. On current polling there are a fair few MPs who would be likely to hold their seats if they ran as BXP, and they get to take most of their local associations with them too. Whereas going CUK then CUK bringing down the government looks equivalent to resigning your seat and giving it to a fresh Tory headbanger.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @Byronic said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1131631187066314752<; > > > > > > ++++ > > > > Not a HUGE fan of George Osborne (tho he would have made a much better premier than T May), but if any journalist in Fleet Street is well connected in Tory circles, it is him. So that sounds kosher, and reliable. And it makes sense. > > > > I pity - again - poor Teresa. My God, what will that State Visit with Trump be like? He openly despises "losers". She is the epitome of a loser. And she has to host him?? > > > > If I were Philip May, I would advise her to step down this weekend, and get a caretaker. The humiliation is not worth the extra two weeks of power. It really is not. > > I firmly endorse this message.
> @brokenwheel said: > More anecdata: > > Estimated 50% turnout in our very Remainy small town. We regularly have the highest turnout in the district so that's a plausible ceiling. > > A more rural ward a few miles away, and certainly less Remainy, is looking like 20%. > > As a few posters have commented, this is looking like a remarkably polarised election. Good news for the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems, bad news for the Conservatives and Labour. > > Not sure it is good news for BP; if the turnout differential is what it appears to be the vast majority of votes in Leave areas will need to BP votes to counteract the rise in turnout in Remain areas.
Could be in for a 2015-size polling surprise. Lib Dems top, Brexit Party in low 20s.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @Byronic said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1131631187066314752<; > > > > > > ++++ > > > > Not a HUGE fan of George Osborne (tho he would have made a much better premier than T May), but if any journalist in Fleet Street is well connected in Tory circles, it is him. So that sounds kosher, and reliable. And it makes sense. > > > > I pity - again - poor Teresa. My God, what will that State Visit with Trump be like? He openly despises "losers". She is the epitome of a loser. And she has to host him?? > > > > If I were Philip May, I would advise her to step down this weekend, and get a caretaker. The humiliation is not worth the extra two weeks of power. It really is not. > > I firmly endorse this message.
To save everyone the trouble I've put that Westminster poll into EC...you think we are deadlocked now?? Lab 264 Con 154 BP. 133 SNP. 55 LD. 22 NI. 18 PC. 4 Lab/SNP/PC majority of 3!! (Assuming NI is the same).
Maybe if Change UK had chosen a cock and balls as their party logo they would have done better in the election by having all the spoilt ballots counted in their favour.
I'm glad TMay is going to outlast Brown, but I still think she's going to try and stay! After Trump there will be some other reason why we need strong and stable leadership...
> @brokenwheel said: > More anecdata: > > Estimated 50% turnout in our very Remainy small town. We regularly have the highest turnout in the district so that's a plausible ceiling. > > A more rural ward a few miles away, and certainly less Remainy, is looking like 20%. > > As a few posters have commented, this is looking like a remarkably polarised election. Good news for the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems, bad news for the Conservatives and Labour. > > Not sure it is good news for BP; if the turnout differential is what it appears to be the vast majority of votes in Leave areas will need to BP votes to counteract the rise in turnout in Remain areas.
Could be in for a 2015-size polling surprise. Lib Dems top, Brexit Party in low 20s.
> @dixiedean said: > To save everyone the trouble I've put that Westminster poll into EC...you think we are deadlocked now?? > Lab 264 > Con 154 > BP. 133 > SNP. 55 > LD. 22 > NI. 18 > PC. 4 > Lab/SNP/PC majority of 3!! > (Assuming NI is the same).
Cons and BP would have a small majority on that poll in England but once you add the SNP and Plaid Labour would have a majority across the UK with SNP, Plaid and LD support
> > > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
> >
> > > > >
> >
> > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed.
> > > By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway
> > @HUYFD you seem to be overlooking the possibility of a VoNC as a way of stopping No Deal.
>
> In that case if said new PM really wanted to get No Deal, they could prorogue parliament.
Has the UK now turned into a dictatorship . If a PM did that once it would set an awful precedent .
I thought prorogation was a matter for the monarch on the advice of the Privy Council ? The majority of whose members don’t strike me as no dealers....
A > @kyf_100 said: > > @nico67 said: > > In response to Kyf I understand what you’re saying. > > > > I’m a realistic Remainer . I expect the BP to do very well . The real interest personally is to see what happens to Labour and the Lib Dems . > > Yup. > > I reckon most Brexiteers will go Brexit and a lot of Labour will go Lib Dem, though it's hard to guess how much. > > FWIW, I have seen a few friends on my FB feed say they are lifelong Labour voters voting Lib Dem for the first time today. Most of the Tories I know have claimed they are abstaining (though I suspect many are secretly voting for Brexit - Brexit shy vote very possible!). > > The thing that amazes me the most is, if we take today to be a kinda proxy referendum, just how little has changed. Let's face it, the people charged with delivering Brexit haven't exactly covered themselves in glory, while even the staunchest of Brexiteers believe it will be an uphill struggle, possible economic damage etc. And of course we have had three years of a relentlessly hostile media telling us how damaging Brexit will be. > > At this point I'm starting to believe that if it was known that to complete Brexit would require the sacrifice of all the firstborn sons in the land, the polls would still be 50/50 split. Which goes back to what others were saying in the previous thread: Brexit is about values, not about outcomes. A divide that cannot be easily mended.
True . Brexit has become like a belief system . The country has lost its religion and found Brexit .
I’m beginning to think a lot of us are becoming addicted to the Brexit saga . Some of those voting nights in the Commons were very exciting . I’m not sure dull politics that we used to have will ever satisfy again .
I really don’t know what can get the genie back in the bottle . One things for sure , a no deal will finish the country off , the divisions will be impossible to repair for many years .
I’ve always said the only chance of some return to normality is leaving with a deal that both sides could live with .
Leavers get a lot of what they wanted , and Remainers at least get a few crumbs .
A no deal effectively gives most Leavers what they think they might want but will probably live to regret , it will leave Remainers with absolutely nothing .
> @brokenwheel said: > More anecdata: > > Estimated 50% turnout in our very Remainy small town. We regularly have the highest turnout in the district so that's a plausible ceiling. > > A more rural ward a few miles away, and certainly less Remainy, is looking like 20%. > > As a few posters have commented, this is looking like a remarkably polarised election. Good news for the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems, bad news for the Conservatives and Labour. > > Not sure it is good news for BP; if the turnout differential is what it appears to be the vast majority of votes in Leave areas will need to BP votes to counteract the rise in turnout in Remain areas.
The Remain vote is split multiple ways though between Labour, the LDs, the Greens, Plaid and the SNP and half the remaining Tories so even if turnout in Leave areas was half that in Remain areas (which it probably won't be) the BP would still likely win as only UKIP are the other out and out Leave Party competing for Leave voters in these European elections
> @Pulpstar said: > > @Mortimer said: > > Has ANYONE voted Labour today? > > I'm hoping Labour have got at least some of their normal London vote out !
It’s really hard to say because the polls have been very uncertain with their vote share . They do have a good ground game in London but if they can’t top the London poll then it’s likely to be a horror show UK wide .
I know just chatting with close Labour friends isn’t a scientific poll but they vary from pro to anti Corbyn , and varying degrees on the Remain scale .
Unless they’re telling me fibs then none voted Labour , split between the Lib Dems and Greens .
> @YorkshireCandidate said: I will never support any other party and am still a Conservative, however I am so sick of Theresa May and the remainers in the parliamentary party thinking they know better than the public than I just couldn't support them on this occasion. > The vast majority of people in this country support renationalising our rail industry (plus the water and power companies). I presume you support this too? Or do you, like most Tories, think in your mind that "The public" don't understand that that's bad?
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > @Byronic said: > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1131631187066314752<; > > > > > > > > > ++++ > > > > > > Not a HUGE fan of George Osborne (tho he would have made a much better premier than T May), but if any journalist in Fleet Street is well connected in Tory circles, it is him. So that sounds kosher, and reliable. And it makes sense. > > > > > > I pity - again - poor Teresa. My God, what will that State Visit with Trump be like? He openly despises "losers". She is the epitome of a loser. And she has to host him?? > > > > > > If I were Philip May, I would advise her to step down this weekend, and get a caretaker. The humiliation is not worth the extra two weeks of power. It really is not. > > > > I firmly endorse this message. > > So do I
Total nonsense of course but would make for an interesting parliament...
Bizarrely not too bad a poll for Con.
Brexit will split very heavily for Con rather than Lab - so even if Brexit got around 10% Con would be well ahead of Lab.
As for Boris, he will surely tack to the Centre if elected - he won't want the economy to be damaged any more than anyone else and I suspect he couldn't care less about Brexit.
It will just be a question of cobbling something together that passes as reasonable and that he can get through.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory. > > > > > > > > > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since. > > > > > > > > > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed. > > > > > > > > > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for. > > > > > > > > By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed. > > > > > > > > Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway > > > > > > You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is. > > > > > > Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings > > > > We do, Macron will veto further extension and it will be No Deal under a new Tory PM if the WA has not passed by then. The only way to stop it would be Tory MPs like Grieve voting to make Corbyn PM to try and force a further extension and if Macron has vetoed a revoke vote > > You are talking nonsense and as several posters have already said Junckers is ready for an extension and Macron will not veto it. Your posts are so predictable I do not even need to see the author. You need to get away from the IDS school of brexit thought and accept that there are countless variations on how this pans out
No I am not talking rubbish Macron said yesterday he would veto further extension in categorical terms 'to avoid Brexit polluting the EU.' As the French President said “In the case of Brexit, you just have to know at some point whether it stops or not. “If we follow the logic of saying that it scares us and that we are prepared not to respect the British vote, we betray both the British and the interest of the British.”
Not to mention of course by October a hard Brexit Tory leader will almost certainly be PM and refuse to request another extension of Article 50 anyway if the WA has not passed by then
> @IanB2 said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since. > > > > > > > > > > > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed. > > > > > > > > > > > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for. > > > > > > > > > > By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed. > > > > > > > > > > Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway > > > > > > > > You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is. > > > > > > > > Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings > > > > > > We do, Macron will veto further extension and it will be No Deal under a new Tory PM if the WA has not passed by then. The only way to stop it would be Tory MPs like Grieve voting to make Corbyn PM to try and force a further extension and if Macron has vetoed a revoke vote > > > > You are talking nonsense and as several posters have already said Junckers is ready for an extension and Macron will not veto it. Your posts are so predictable I do not even need to see the author. You need to get away from the IDS school of brexit thought and accept that there are countless variations on how this pans out > > Most people would be embarrassed to be posting such a never ending stream of c**p in here. But HY appears to have no shame.
I post the facts even despite what deluded Remainers like you may think, I could not care less
> @Pulpstar said: > > @Mortimer said: > > Has ANYONE voted Labour today? > > I'm hoping Labour have got at least some of their normal London vote out !
> @brokenwheel said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > More anecdata: > > > > Estimated 50% turnout in our very Remainy small town. We regularly have the highest turnout in the district so that's a plausible ceiling. > > > > A more rural ward a few miles away, and certainly less Remainy, is looking like 20%. > > > > As a few posters have commented, this is looking like a remarkably polarised election. Good news for the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems, bad news for the Conservatives and Labour. > > > > Not sure it is good news for BP; if the turnout differential is what it appears to be the vast majority of votes in Leave areas will need to BP votes to counteract the rise in turnout in Remain areas. > > Could be in for a 2015-size polling surprise. Lib Dems top, Brexit Party in low 20s. > > Sadly I think that is a distinct possibility.
Had there been a single Remain party maybe but the Remain vote is too split I think for that whatever the turnout differential looks like
Presumably over tonight/tomorrow whatever the polling companies have on the field here will leak out (not least via the betting)? I’m assuming “did you vote/how did you vote” largish sample polls will be close enough.
Comments
> The EU will not take the blame for a no deal Brexit. They will leave that entirely up to us.
If we No Deal, the EU negotiators will have royally screwed up too. They will get a right kicking in EU capitals.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Black_Rook said:
> > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
> > > > >
> > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
> > > >
> > > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed.
> > > >
> > > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for.
> > >
> > > By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed.
> > >
> > > Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway
> >
> > You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is.
> >
> > Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings
>
> We do, Macron will veto further extension and it will be No Deal under a new Tory PM if the WA has not passed by then. The only way to stop it would be Tory MPs like Grieve voting to make Corbyn PM to try and force a further extension and if Macron has vetoed a revoke vote
as it is said of some of my surgical colleagues, "often wrong, but never in doubt"
> > @solarflare said:
> > If Brexit isn't resolved there's no way this parliament limps on until 2022. The government will either collapse like a house of cards, or endure death by a thousand cuts, but either way it won't survive. There's too much pressure applied, particularly near Brexit deadlines, and they're already badly weakened.
> >
> > I could only see it limping along till 2022 if some of that pressure was vented and the withdrawal agreement somehow snuck over the line, May exited stage left, the talks with Europe and the future relationship then went on quietly in the background and the political discussion returned temporarily to domestic matters, but I don't see that happening and even then the new Tory leader will still be thinking about a GE.
>
> The government doesn't just explode from too much pressure though. A specific thing has to happen:
>
> 1) PM calls an election, and opposition agrees. But if the government is badly weakened, the PM won't call an election they would lose
> 2) DUP pulls the plug. Why? They're still getting paid
> 3) Some Con MPs bolt. But it's career suicide, and all their friends and colleagues will hate them. Could happen but needs severe provocation by the PM, who will generally choose not to provoke
> 4) Enough Con MPs die or get long prison sentences that Con+DUP isn't enough. But MPs are healthier and more careful than they used to be, and minibuses are built tough
I'm thinking of (3) particularly.
If this situation limps on indefinitely I think the government will eventually lose a VONC. It will either lose it by a couple of votes or so because individual MPs defect or simply withhold support, or it will lose by a huge chunk as an ERG-type bloc of MPs just call enough.
You say "needs severe provocation by the PM, who will generally choose not to provoke" - well, if you believe all the twitterati yesterday there are certainly plenty of Tories sounding quite provoked and provocative.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1131631187066314752<;
>
>
> ++++
>
> Not a HUGE fan of George Osborne (tho he would have made a much better premier than T May), but if any journalist in Fleet Street is well connected in Tory circles, it is him. So that sounds kosher, and reliable. And it makes sense.
>
> I pity - again - poor Teresa. My God, what will that State Visit with Trump be like? He openly despises "losers". She is the epitome of a loser. And she has to host him??
>
> If I were Philip May, I would advise her to step down this weekend, and get a caretaker. The humiliation is not worth the extra two weeks of power. It really is not.
I firmly endorse this message.
At least I can get my grass cut in the morning
> Defections to CUK or, more likely now, the LDs could be the route to Cons losing their majority.
At this point I think they're more likely to lose it from the other end. On current polling there are a fair few MPs who would be likely to hold their seats if they ran as BXP, and they get to take most of their local associations with them too. Whereas going CUK then CUK bringing down the government looks equivalent to resigning your seat and giving it to a fresh Tory headbanger.
https://twitter.com/Oldfirmfacts1/status/1131593162135343110
> > @Byronic said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1131631187066314752<;
> >
> >
> > ++++
> >
> > Not a HUGE fan of George Osborne (tho he would have made a much better premier than T May), but if any journalist in Fleet Street is well connected in Tory circles, it is him. So that sounds kosher, and reliable. And it makes sense.
> >
> > I pity - again - poor Teresa. My God, what will that State Visit with Trump be like? He openly despises "losers". She is the epitome of a loser. And she has to host him??
> >
> > If I were Philip May, I would advise her to step down this weekend, and get a caretaker. The humiliation is not worth the extra two weeks of power. It really is not.
>
> I firmly endorse this message.
+1
...and I have no bets on Lidders!
> More anecdata:
>
> Estimated 50% turnout in our very Remainy small town. We regularly have the highest turnout in the district so that's a plausible ceiling.
>
> A more rural ward a few miles away, and certainly less Remainy, is looking like 20%.
>
> As a few posters have commented, this is looking like a remarkably polarised election. Good news for the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems, bad news for the Conservatives and Labour.
>
> Not sure it is good news for BP; if the turnout differential is what it appears to be the vast majority of votes in Leave areas will need to BP votes to counteract the rise in turnout in Remain areas.
Could be in for a 2015-size polling surprise. Lib Dems top, Brexit Party in low 20s.
> > @Byronic said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1131631187066314752<;
> >
> >
> > ++++
> >
> > Not a HUGE fan of George Osborne (tho he would have made a much better premier than T May), but if any journalist in Fleet Street is well connected in Tory circles, it is him. So that sounds kosher, and reliable. And it makes sense.
> >
> > I pity - again - poor Teresa. My God, what will that State Visit with Trump be like? He openly despises "losers". She is the epitome of a loser. And she has to host him??
> >
> > If I were Philip May, I would advise her to step down this weekend, and get a caretaker. The humiliation is not worth the extra two weeks of power. It really is not.
>
> I firmly endorse this message.
So do I
Lab 264
Con 154
BP. 133
SNP. 55
LD. 22
NI. 18
PC. 4
Lab/SNP/PC majority of 3!!
(Assuming NI is the same).
> https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1131670341791690754
Not the first, IDS and Clarke debated on Newsnight in 2001 and Cameron and Davis debated in a BBC Question Time Special in 2005
> https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1131670247822503936
Hostage to fortune.
> To save everyone the trouble I've put that Westminster poll into EC...you think we are deadlocked now??
> Lab 264
> Con 154
> BP. 133
> SNP. 55
> LD. 22
> NI. 18
> PC. 4
> Lab/SNP/PC majority of 3!!
> (Assuming NI is the same).
Cons and BP would have a small majority on that poll in England but once you add the SNP and Plaid Labour would have a majority across the UK with SNP, Plaid and LD support
The majority of whose members don’t strike me as no dealers....
> > @nico67 said:
> > In response to Kyf I understand what you’re saying.
> >
> > I’m a realistic Remainer . I expect the BP to do very well . The real interest personally is to see what happens to Labour and the Lib Dems .
>
> Yup.
>
> I reckon most Brexiteers will go Brexit and a lot of Labour will go Lib Dem, though it's hard to guess how much.
>
> FWIW, I have seen a few friends on my FB feed say they are lifelong Labour voters voting Lib Dem for the first time today. Most of the Tories I know have claimed they are abstaining (though I suspect many are secretly voting for Brexit - Brexit shy vote very possible!).
>
> The thing that amazes me the most is, if we take today to be a kinda proxy referendum, just how little has changed. Let's face it, the people charged with delivering Brexit haven't exactly covered themselves in glory, while even the staunchest of Brexiteers believe it will be an uphill struggle, possible economic damage etc. And of course we have had three years of a relentlessly hostile media telling us how damaging Brexit will be.
>
> At this point I'm starting to believe that if it was known that to complete Brexit would require the sacrifice of all the firstborn sons in the land, the polls would still be 50/50 split. Which goes back to what others were saying in the previous thread: Brexit is about values, not about outcomes. A divide that cannot be easily mended.
True . Brexit has become like a belief system . The country has lost its religion and found Brexit .
I’m beginning to think a lot of us are becoming addicted to the Brexit saga . Some of those voting nights in the Commons were very exciting . I’m not sure dull politics that we used to have will ever satisfy again .
I really don’t know what can get the genie back in the bottle . One things for sure , a no deal will finish the country off , the divisions will be impossible to repair for many years .
I’ve always said the only chance of some return to normality is leaving with a deal that both sides could live with .
Leavers get a lot of what they wanted , and Remainers at least get a few crumbs .
A no deal effectively gives most Leavers what they think they might want but will probably live to regret , it will leave Remainers with absolutely nothing .
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1131670341791690754
>
> Not the first, IDS and Clarke debated on Newsnight in 2001 and Cameron and Davis debated in a BBC Question Time Special in 2005
Yep - I remember watching DC and DD in the BNC JCR! Everyone was rooting for the old boy.
> Has ANYONE voted Labour today?
I'm hoping Labour have got at least some of their normal London vote out !
> More anecdata:
>
> Estimated 50% turnout in our very Remainy small town. We regularly have the highest turnout in the district so that's a plausible ceiling.
>
> A more rural ward a few miles away, and certainly less Remainy, is looking like 20%.
>
> As a few posters have commented, this is looking like a remarkably polarised election. Good news for the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems, bad news for the Conservatives and Labour.
>
> Not sure it is good news for BP; if the turnout differential is what it appears to be the vast majority of votes in Leave areas will need to BP votes to counteract the rise in turnout in Remain areas.
The Remain vote is split multiple ways though between Labour, the LDs, the Greens, Plaid and the SNP and half the remaining Tories so even if turnout in Leave areas was half that in Remain areas (which it probably won't be) the BP would still likely win as only UKIP are the other out and out Leave Party competing for Leave voters in these European elections
> > @Mortimer said:
> > Has ANYONE voted Labour today?
>
> I'm hoping Labour have got at least some of their normal London vote out !
It’s really hard to say because the polls have been very uncertain with their vote share . They do have a good ground game in London but if they can’t top the London poll then it’s likely to be a horror show UK wide .
I know just chatting with close Labour friends isn’t a scientific poll but they vary from pro to anti Corbyn , and varying degrees on the Remain scale .
Unless they’re telling me fibs then none voted Labour , split between the Lib Dems and Greens .
I will never support any other party and am still a Conservative, however I am so sick of Theresa May and the remainers in the parliamentary party thinking they know better than the public than I just couldn't support them on this occasion.
>
The vast majority of people in this country support renationalising our rail industry (plus the water and power companies). I presume you support this too? Or do you, like most Tories, think in your mind that "The public" don't understand that that's bad?
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > @Byronic said:
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1131631187066314752<;
> > >
> > >
> > > ++++
> > >
> > > Not a HUGE fan of George Osborne (tho he would have made a much better premier than T May), but if any journalist in Fleet Street is well connected in Tory circles, it is him. So that sounds kosher, and reliable. And it makes sense.
> > >
> > > I pity - again - poor Teresa. My God, what will that State Visit with Trump be like? He openly despises "losers". She is the epitome of a loser. And she has to host him??
> > >
> > > If I were Philip May, I would advise her to step down this weekend, and get a caretaker. The humiliation is not worth the extra two weeks of power. It really is not.
> >
> > I firmly endorse this message.
>
> So do I
Yup
Brexit will split very heavily for Con rather than Lab - so even if Brexit got around 10% Con would be well ahead of Lab.
As for Boris, he will surely tack to the Centre if elected - he won't want the economy to be damaged any more than anyone else and I suspect he couldn't care less about Brexit.
It will just be a question of cobbling something together that passes as reasonable and that he can get through.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Black_Rook said:
> > > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
> > > > >
> > > > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed.
> > > > >
> > > > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for.
> > > >
> > > > By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed.
> > > >
> > > > Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway
> > >
> > > You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is.
> > >
> > > Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings
> >
> > We do, Macron will veto further extension and it will be No Deal under a new Tory PM if the WA has not passed by then. The only way to stop it would be Tory MPs like Grieve voting to make Corbyn PM to try and force a further extension and if Macron has vetoed a revoke vote
>
> You are talking nonsense and as several posters have already said Junckers is ready for an extension and Macron will not veto it. Your posts are so predictable I do not even need to see the author. You need to get away from the IDS school of brexit thought and accept that there are countless variations on how this pans out
No I am not talking rubbish Macron said yesterday he would veto further extension in categorical terms 'to avoid Brexit polluting the EU.' As the French President said “In the case of Brexit, you just have to know at some point whether it stops or not.
“If we follow the logic of saying that it scares us and that we are prepared not to respect the British vote, we betray both the British and the interest of the British.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/22/macron-wants-to-avoid-brexit-polluting-eu-after-31-october
Not to mention of course by October a hard Brexit Tory leader will almost certainly be PM and refuse to request another extension of Article 50 anyway if the WA has not passed by then
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @Black_Rook said:
> > > > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > > > > > It dawn on me that this might be the last election I vote Tory.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > JohnO's comment yesterday that the likes of Bridgen, Jenkyns, Baker, Francois, et al have won the battle for the Tory party have been haunting me ever since.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > If this Parliament keeps limping on miserably until 2022 - with Brexit put off in a series of endless extensions - then the political landscape by the time of the next GE could be very different indeed.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > There mightn't be much of a Conservative Party left for anyone to vote for.
> > > > >
> > > > > By October there will be a new Tory leader who will go to No Deal if necessary if the Withdrawal Agreement has not passed by then and call a general election to get a mandate for it too if needed.
> > > > >
> > > > > Extension was only possible as an amendment tagged onto the WA, if there is no further WA proposed by a new PM the Commons would no longer have a way of stopping No Deal and forcing another extension and in any case Macron would likely veto further extension anyway
> > > >
> > > > You always post with utter certainty when uncertainty is the only certainty there is.
> > > >
> > > > Neither you or I have any clue what the outcome will be by October and an occassional IMHO may be prudent in your musings
> > >
> > > We do, Macron will veto further extension and it will be No Deal under a new Tory PM if the WA has not passed by then. The only way to stop it would be Tory MPs like Grieve voting to make Corbyn PM to try and force a further extension and if Macron has vetoed a revoke vote
> >
> > You are talking nonsense and as several posters have already said Junckers is ready for an extension and Macron will not veto it. Your posts are so predictable I do not even need to see the author. You need to get away from the IDS school of brexit thought and accept that there are countless variations on how this pans out
>
> Most people would be embarrassed to be posting such a never ending stream of c**p in here. But HY appears to have no shame.
I post the facts even despite what deluded Remainers like you may think, I could not care less
> > @Mortimer said:
> > Has ANYONE voted Labour today?
>
> I'm hoping Labour have got at least some of their normal London vote out !
I voted Labour
>
> I voted Labour
Lexiters gonna Lexit.
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > More anecdata:
> >
> > Estimated 50% turnout in our very Remainy small town. We regularly have the highest turnout in the district so that's a plausible ceiling.
> >
> > A more rural ward a few miles away, and certainly less Remainy, is looking like 20%.
> >
> > As a few posters have commented, this is looking like a remarkably polarised election. Good news for the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems, bad news for the Conservatives and Labour.
> >
> > Not sure it is good news for BP; if the turnout differential is what it appears to be the vast majority of votes in Leave areas will need to BP votes to counteract the rise in turnout in Remain areas.
>
> Could be in for a 2015-size polling surprise. Lib Dems top, Brexit Party in low 20s.
>
> Sadly I think that is a distinct possibility.
Had there been a single Remain party maybe but the Remain vote is too split I think for that whatever the turnout differential looks like
> Joey has an attack of sanctimony (with side order of hypocrisy).
>
> https://twitter.com/Oldfirmfacts1/status/1131593162135343110
They missed the attack on another manager a few weeks ago.