> > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight
>
>
>
> What are the Tories thinking....
>
> They’re not.
>
> They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories.
Tough luck, Boris is coming and going to rally the Brexiteers back into battle.
A Boris win in a general election would be delicious just for the look on diehard Remainers and Corbynites faces
Ah yes the brave Boris who stood last time and then ran away. The Boris who rallied so many to him his majority reduced at the last election. The Boris whose time at the Foreign Office resulted in most of his counterparts in other countries considering him an offensive joke and in a British citizen having her sentence confirmed rather than released because he couldn’t learn his brief properly. The Boris who could not even stick to a script over the Skripal affair. That brilliant Boris.
Honestly, there is therapy for the sorts of delusions the Tory party is suffering from.
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > If Corbyn leaves and is replaced by someone sensible ie not a Marxist or an anti-semite and people like Milne and Murray kicked out, I would seriously consider them. The Tories will not be fit for polite society for a long time. The Brexit Party are unspeakable. > > > > The Lib Dems are my preference but it depends on who their next leader is. > > The Change UK Party were supposedly the sensible Labour alternative...however that's not going so well. > > I fear though the public don't want a sensible centre left / centre right government. It seems like they want the apple cart overturned.
Yep, I said last night. It is Farage or Corbyn (or his successor) who will succeed the Tories in office. The next Tory leader faces all the same issues this one did. (And I don't buy the EU will re-negotiate, or the Tories will unite around Hard Brexit, they won't). Pick a side. I have.
> @Mysticrose said: > > @another_richard said: > > > If the LibDems get less than the 17% they got at the local elections it will be a humiliation. > > Lol. So, say, 16% would be a humiliation? Where do people dredge up this sort of guff? > > What I would say, to be anecdotal, is that Lib Dem workers on the ground report something unprecedented is happening and they're not referring to the BP.
> @Mysticrose said: > > @another_richard said: > > > If the LibDems get less than the 17% they got at the local elections it will be a humiliation. > > Lol. So, say, 16% would be a humiliation? Where do people dredge up this sort of guff? > > What I would say, to be anecdotal, is that Lib Dem workers on the ground report something unprecedented is happening and they're not referring to the BP.
My optimum betting position is turnout less than 30%, Lab less than 10%, Con in 3rd place and LD top place. I think the last unlikely, but the others very possible.
This is the worst tory government in my lifetime in my opinion.
This is a way to tell them that.
It's not just Brexit is it - they are awful
The worst government, or the worst set of MPs? The government seems OK in the overall scheme of things, albeit distracted and powerless because of the parliamentary numbers. The government's attempted Brexit plan is fine, or would be if it hadn't been torpedoed by a Satanic alliance of Corbyn, the LibDems and the ERG. The economy's in a reasonable state given the circumstances. The public finances are in pretty good shape. Gove is doing some good stuff on the environment. Amber Rudd is decent at DWP. Sajid is decent at the Home Office.
Encouraging the ERG nutjobs to be even more nutty and destructive is not going to help, is it?
> @Byronic said: > > @nico67 said: > > I’m past caring who the Tories get in as leader . > > > > The country is fucked beyond belief. < > > +++++ > > It really isn't though, is it? > > I went for a walk in my local park a few hours ago. The sun was shining. Some people ate sandwiches. Others just sunbathed. > > Dogs cantered. Clouds moved. Schoolgirls giggled at schoolboys. > > Marks and Spencers had some nice apple juice, reduced in price. My local west London pub was quite noisy around 7pm (it has a large beer garden), then it quietened down. The gym was busy, ish. > > One of the few consoling things in this hideous Brexit melodrama is how the rest of ordinary British life (and the British economy, thank God) has largely continued as if nothing has happened. > > > >
Lowest unemployment level since 1974 or something, as well. Half the EU average. And it still costs £300,000 to buy a gardenless two-bedroom terrace house round here, last time I looked.
> @Byronic said: > > @nico67 said: > > I’m past caring who the Tories get in as leader . > > > > The country is fucked beyond belief. < > > +++++ > > It really isn't though, is it? > > I went for a walk in my local park a few hours ago. The sun was shining. Some people ate sandwiches. Others just sunbathed. > > Dogs cantered. Clouds moved. Schoolgirls giggled at schoolboys. > > Marks and Spencers had some nice apple juice, reduced in price. My local west London pub was quite noisy around 7pm (it has a large beer garden), then it quietened down. The gym was busy, ish. > > One of the few consoling things in this hideous Brexit melodrama is how the rest of ordinary British life (and the British economy, thank God) has largely continued as if nothing has happened. > > > >
Quite so.
What the last few months have revealed is how well the country can operate without a functioning government.
> @dixiedean said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > If Corbyn leaves and is replaced by someone sensible ie not a Marxist or an anti-semite and people like Milne and Murray kicked out, I would seriously consider them. The Tories will not be fit for polite society for a long time. The Brexit Party are unspeakable. > > > > > > The Lib Dems are my preference but it depends on who their next leader is. > > > > The Change UK Party were supposedly the sensible Labour alternative...however that's not going so well. > > > > I fear though the public don't want a sensible centre left / centre right government. It seems like they want the apple cart overturned. > > Yep, I said last night. It is Farage or Corbyn (or his successor) who will succeed the Tories in office. The next Tory leader faces all the same issues this one did. (And I don't buy the EU will re-negotiate, or the Tories will unite around Hard Brexit, they won't). > Pick a side. I have.
The vast majority of Tory members and 2017 Tory voters now back No Deal if May's Deal fails again, Boris can reunite that coalition and bring back Brexit Party voters to beat Corbyn
> @Pulpstar said: > > @bigjohnowls said: > > If TM resigns tomorrow. > > > > BBC wouldn't be able to tell us due to their impartiality rules!! > > They will, but it'll just be "The Prime Minister has resigned" with no further comment.
> @KentRising said: > > @Byronic said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > I’m past caring who the Tories get in as leader . > > > > > > The country is fucked beyond belief. < > > > > +++++ > > > > It really isn't though, is it? > > > > I went for a walk in my local park a few hours ago. The sun was shining. Some people ate sandwiches. Others just sunbathed. > > > > Dogs cantered. Clouds moved. Schoolgirls giggled at schoolboys. > > > > Marks and Spencers had some nice apple juice, reduced in price. My local west London pub was quite noisy around 7pm (it has a large beer garden), then it quietened down. The gym was busy, ish. > > > > One of the few consoling things in this hideous Brexit melodrama is how the rest of ordinary British life (and the British economy, thank God) has largely continued as if nothing has happened. > > > > > > > > > > Lowest unemployment level since 1974 or something, as well. Half the EU average.
I suspect that saying that in Scunthorpe tonight would not go down well!
@HYUFD said: Boris will try and renegotiate with the EU and remove the backstop, if the EU refuse he will call a snap general election in October to get a mandate for a hard Brexit
+++++++++++++
Nah, he'll come back with the backstop renamed the "interim transitional arrangement (Northern Ireland)" and it will now be the "Exit Agreement".
Everyone will cheer at his genius at beating the Brussels bureaucrats, and only much later will people realise that he sold them Mrs May's deal.
Which, it will also turn out, will be fine for the UK.
> @Jonathan said: > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > The end of May is more brutal and miserable than the end of any PM I can recall. > > > > Indeed so. One has to feel sympathy for her on a personal level, admiration for her resilience, and acknowledgement that on the big picture she has been right. > > > > But... it has to be said that she has made the end more brutal and miserable than it needed to be. She has had numerous opportunities to retire from the fray on her own terms and with honour. Immediately after the 2017 election and in December 2018 were the most obvious ones. > > She has made serious errors. She lost me when she turned to brinkmanship. But she did not deserve this. Her own side treat her so very badly.
If she had shown a morsel of compassion as a Home Secretary I might have agreed with you but she didn't. She behaved like the the school bully so you could call this Karma.
> @AndyJS said: > > @bigjohnowls said: > > If TM resigns tomorrow. > > > > BBC wouldn't be able to tell us due to their impartiality rules!! > > You're joking. How could a statement of fact be prejudicial as far as an election is concerned?
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight > > > > > > > > > > > > What are the Tories thinking.... > > > > > > They’re not. > > > > > > They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories. > > > > Tough luck, Boris is coming and going to rally the Brexiteers back into battle. > > > > A Boris win in a general election would be delicious just for the look on diehard Remainers and Corbynites faces > > Ah yes the brave Boris who stood last time and then ran away. > The Boris who rallied so many to him his majority reduced at the last election. > The Boris whose time at the Foreign Office resulted in most of his counterparts in other countries considering him an offensive joke and in a British citizen having her sentence confirmed rather than released because he couldn’t learn his brief properly. > The Boris who could not even stick to a script over the Skripal affair. > That brilliant Boris. > > Honestly, there is therapy for the sorts of delusions the Tory party is suffering from.
The Boris who twice won Labour London as Mayor, the Boris who was pivotal to Leave winning the EU referendum, the Boris who has more charisma than the rest of the current Tory parliamentary party put together, yes that Boris.
We are also in a world of Trump, Bolsonaro, Salvini, Putin, Modi, Netanyahu etc, what Paris and Berlin think of him really does not matter so much on that basis, Trump likes Boris and the US President is still the most powerful man in the world
> > > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > What are the Tories thinking....
>
> >
>
> > They’re not.
>
> >
>
> > They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories.
>
>
>
> I get your point but... Corbyn. Gulp.
>
> The hard Brexiteers are Corbyn’s useful idiots.
They aren't as tomorrow's vote results will show when the Brexit Party trounce Corbyn Labour as much as they trounce May's Tories, the Tories need a leader to win back Brexit Party voters that is all
Utterly deluded. Every step the Tories are taking is making a Labour victory at the GE more and more probable. And they’ve been doing it for three years now.
> @Mysticrose said: > > @another_richard said: > > > If the LibDems get less than the 17% they got at the local elections it will be a humiliation. > > Lol. So, say, 16% would be a humiliation? Where do people dredge up this sort of guff? > > What I would say, to be anecdotal, is that Lib Dem workers on the ground report something unprecedented is happening and they're not referring to the BP.
The LDs ought to clean up in places like Oxfordshire, north Hampshire, Bath, Bristol, etc.
> @bigjohnowls said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > @bigjohnowls said: > > > If TM resigns tomorrow. > > > > > > BBC wouldn't be able to tell us due to their impartiality rules!! > > > > You're joking. How could a statement of fact be prejudicial as far as an election is concerned? > > I am joking yes
The vast majority of Tory members and 2017 Tory voters now back No Deal if May's Deal fails again, Boris can reunite that coalition and bring back Brexit Party voters to beat Corbyn
Three questions:
1. Do you anticipate Boris beating Corbyn on that platform before or after the catastrophic fallout from a no-deal crash-out?
2. How would Boris, or anyone else for that matter, keep the sane part of the party on board in implementing a no-deal crash-out?
3. Even if the first two problems weren't insoluble, how on earth would Boris, or anyone else for that matter, outbid Nigel Farage who would be crying 'Betrayal!' whatever the government did?
> @rcs1000 said: > @HYUFD said: > Boris will try and renegotiate with the EU and remove the backstop, if the EU refuse he will call a snap general election in October to get a mandate for a hard Brexit > > +++++++++++++ > > Nah, he'll come back with the backstop renamed the "interim transitional arrangement (Northern Ireland)" and it will now be the "Exit Agreement". > > Everyone will cheer at his genius at beating the Brussels bureaucrats, and only much later will people realise that he sold them Mrs May's deal. > > Which, it will also turn out, will be fine for the UK.<
++++
Yes, that's my feeling. But it may just be my hope. A cheery whistle in the dark.
> @rcs1000 said: > @HYUFD said: > Boris will try and renegotiate with the EU and remove the backstop, if the EU refuse he will call a snap general election in October to get a mandate for a hard Brexit > > +++++++++++++ > > Nah, he'll come back with the backstop renamed the "interim transitional arrangement (Northern Ireland)" and it will now be the "Exit Agreement". > > Everyone will cheer at his genius at beating the Brussels bureaucrats, and only much later will people realise that he sold them Mrs May's deal. > > Which, it will also turn out, will be fine for the UK.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What are the Tories thinking.... > > > > > > > > > > > > > > They’re not. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories. > > > > > > > > > > > > I get your point but... Corbyn. Gulp. > > > > > > The hard Brexiteers are Corbyn’s useful idiots. > > > > They aren't as tomorrow's vote results will show when the Brexit Party trounce Corbyn Labour as much as they trounce May's Tories, the Tories need a leader to win back Brexit Party voters that is all > > Utterly deluded. Every step the Tories are taking is making a Labour victory at the GE more and more probable. And they’ve been doing it for three years now.
Utter rubbish and Labour complacency will make a Boris victory even more delicious as the Coalition's victory was in Australia at the weekend over a complacent Labor expecting to waltz to victory on a 'progressive wave'.
Boris as he has shown umpteen times connects with and speaks to skilled working class and lower middle class voters and with Lynton Crosby he will build a coalition to victory based on them
> @Roger said: > > @bigjohnowls said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > @bigjohnowls said: > > > > If TM resigns tomorrow. > > > > > > > > BBC wouldn't be able to tell us due to their impartiality rules!! > > > > > > You're joking. How could a statement of fact be prejudicial as far as an election is concerned? > > > > I am joking yes > > Are you voting Farage?
> @Pro_Rata said: > > @FF43 said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1131303186210447360 > > > > I would be surprised if the SNP don't get 3 MEPs and they have the chance of a fourth. > > SCOTLAND: > 14.3% or above mathematically guarantees an MEP > 6.6% or less mathematically guarantees no MEP > > Now, add in the following assumptions: > 2 Independents, UKIP and CHUK will all fail to return an MEP > They will poll between them at least 5.5%, but not more than 12% > > Now, with these assumptions > more than 13.5% guarantees an MEP > less than 8% or less guarantees no MEP > > As SNP scale up.to multiple seats, each seat means another party (likely Lab, Con or Green) will be excluded from the seat count. > > Let's assume each excluded party carries at least 5.25% vote share, which is now wasted. > > Adding this assumption: > more than 27% guarantees 2 MEPs > 38.3% or more guarantees 3 MEPs > more than 48% guarantees 4 MEPs > > A mid point can be assessed by assuming that the competitive parties all average half the quota worth of excess votes, except that the party returning the final MEP, by definition, does not exceed quota > > We'll fix the minor party vote here at a little over 8.6% > > On this: > 10.75% of the vote returns each MEP as a mid point assumption > Because this mid point already includes wasted votes, it scales linearly. > 32.25% is a mid point for returning 3 MEPs > 43% is mid point for returning 4 MEPs. > > > > > > > > > >
I d'hont know how you do it. There's ten minutes left but that's the most PB post of the day.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > The vast majority of Tory members and 2017 Tory voters now back No Deal if May's Deal fails again, Boris can reunite that coalition and bring back Brexit Party voters to beat Corbyn > > Three questions: > > 1. Do you anticipate Boris beating Corbyn on that platform before or after the catastrophic fallout from a no-deal crash-out? > > 2. How would Boris, or anyone else for that matter, keep the sane part of the party on board in implementing a no-deal crash-out? > > 3. Even if the first two problems weren't insoluble, how on earth would Boris, or anyone else for that matter, outbid Nigel Farage who would be crying 'Betrayal!' whatever the government did?
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > The vast majority of Tory members and 2017 Tory voters now back No Deal if May's Deal fails again, Boris can reunite that coalition and bring back Brexit Party voters to beat Corbyn > > Three questions: > > 1. Do you anticipate Boris beating Corbyn on that platform before or after the catastrophic fallout from a no-deal crash-out? > > 2. How would Boris, or anyone else for that matter, keep the sane part of the party on board in implementing a no-deal crash-out? > > 3. Even if the first two problems weren't insoluble, how on earth would Boris, or anyone else for that matter, outbid Nigel Farage who would be crying 'Betrayal!' whatever the government did?
Boris could invite Nigel onto the UK's negotiating team! Nigel said today that if the Brexit Party wins big he would like Brexit MEPs to be invited in to 'help' with the negotiations...
> > Utterly deluded. Every step the Tories are taking is making a Labour victory at the GE more and more probable. And they’ve been doing it for three years now.<
+++++
It has clearly escaped your attention that the Labour party is also in freefall, in the polls, it's just not - yet - quite as dramatic as the Tories' descent.
There is no guarantee at all that Corbyn will win the next GE. In fact I'd say it is still rather unlikely, whatever happens to Brexit. Corbyn's personal polling is calamitous and he will now be facing a new Tory leader, probably with a honeymoon (however shortlived, and it will be short).
> > > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > What are the Tories thinking....
>
> >
>
> > They’re not.
>
> >
>
> > They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories.
>
>
>
> Tough luck, Boris is coming and going to rally the Brexiteers back into battle.
>
>
>
> A Boris win in a general election would be delicious just for the look on diehard Remainers and Corbynites faces
>
> Ah yes the brave Boris who stood last time and then ran away.
> The Boris who rallied so many to him his majority reduced at the last election.
> The Boris whose time at the Foreign Office resulted in most of his counterparts in other countries considering him an offensive joke and in a British citizen having her sentence confirmed rather than released because he couldn’t learn his brief properly.
> The Boris who could not even stick to a script over the Skripal affair.
> That brilliant Boris.
>
> Honestly, there is therapy for the sorts of delusions the Tory party is suffering from.
The Boris who twice won Labour London as Mayor, the Boris who was pivotal to Leave winning the EU referendum, the Boris who has more charisma than the rest of the current Tory parliamentary party put together, yes that Boris.
We are also in a world of Trump, Bolsonaro, Salvini, Putin, Modi, Netanyahu etc, what Paris and Berlin think of him really does not matter so much on that basis, Trump likes Boris and the US President is still the most powerful man in the world
You do remember how long ago it was when Boris won the London Mayoralty, that the world was different then and Boris was saying the complete opposite of what he is saying now.
Still, it’s nice to know that you think the Tory party should be like people as repellent as Salvini and Bolsonaro and Putin and Trump and Netanyahu. Shame on such a Tory party.
My bags are packed. Just waiting to get my money's worth on my party membership fee, in a no-doubt futile attempt to support the saner of the two candidates in the final round.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > The vast majority of Tory members and 2017 Tory voters now back No Deal if May's Deal fails again, Boris can reunite that coalition and bring back Brexit Party voters to beat Corbyn > > Three questions: > > 1. Do you anticipate Boris beating Corbyn on that platform before or after the catastrophic fallout from a no-deal crash-out? > > 2. How would Boris, or anyone else for that matter, keep the sane part of the party on board in implementing a no-deal crash-out? > > 3. Even if the first two problems weren't insoluble, how on earth would Boris, or anyone else for that matter, outbid Nigel Farage who would be crying 'Betrayal!' whatever the government did?
1) We will only get No Deal by definition with a Tory election victory as the current Commons will always block it
2) The 'sane' wing as you call it of diehard Remainers are going as extinct in the Tories as Blairites in Labour and can be ignored, it is reuniting the Leave coalition that will take the Tories to victory
3) As the polling shows over half the Brexit Party vote returns to the Tories under a Boris leadership, the fanatics will never be appeased other than under a Steve Baker or Francois leadership but the Tories can still win without them as long as they get mainstream Leavers back
Boris as he has shown umpteen times connects with and speaks to skilled working class and lower middle class voters and with Lyndon Crosby he will build a coalition to victory based on them
You do realise that even if you are proven to have called this absolutely spot on, and lots of people have lost a lot of money by ignoring or arguing with you, you will never be given any credit?
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > Flee, Richard, the lunatics have won. > > My bags are packed. Just waiting to get my money's worth on my party membership fee, in a no-doubt futile attempt to support the saner of the two candidates in the final round.<
++++
Who would you favour? It must be a Brexiteer, surely. The Tories have tried a Remainer and it was a disaster. The Brexiteers have to own Brexit, for good or bad. Also a Brexiteer is the only hope of reuniting the party.
So that means Gove, Johnson, Raab, McVey, Mordaunt....
Of that lot, I think only Johnson can fire up the base (and boy, do they need firing up), he is also sufficiently duplicitous and careerist that he will try and sell a very soft Brexit as a hard Brexit - and he might just get away with it.
And he has form for winning elections.
I am not a fan of Johnson's political career. But I can see why Tories are turning to him, in despair.
> @isam said: > Boris as he has shown umpteen times connects with and speaks to skilled working class and lower middle class voters and with Lyndon Crosby he will build a coalition to victory based on them > > You do realise that even if you are proven to have called this absolutely spot on, and lots of people have lost a lot of money by ignoring or arguing with you, you will never be given any credit?
Of course but the tantrums on election night if Boris wins from many on here will be highly amusing none the less
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > Flee, Richard, the lunatics have won. > > My bags are packed. Just waiting to get my money's worth on my party membership fee, in a no-doubt futile attempt to support the saner of the two candidates in the final round.
I know we have had our run-ins, but I can only say I’m so sorry that this is happening to you and other sensible, pragmatic Tories who live in the real world. It’s no good for any of us that a major pillar of stability is now in a state of what looks like irredeemable collapse, taken over by liars, fools and charlatans. Politics is not a team sport.
> @bigjohnowls said: > > @Roger said: > > If the Lib Dems CHUK and Greens get more votes than Brexit and UKIP the cries for a second referendum would be deafening. > > > > > > They wont and then you need to add Con/Lab to the Brexit total anyway.
This election has no meaning other than a surrogate for voters views on Brexit. Any serous Brexiteer should vote Farage or UKIP any serious Remainer should vote Lib Dem Green CHUK or SNP. The Tory/Labour tribalists can be ignored they're obviosly not voting on Brexit
> Boris as he has shown umpteen times connects with and speaks to skilled working class and lower middle class voters and with Lyndon Crosby he will build a coalition to victory based on them
>
> You do realise that even if you are proven to have called this absolutely spot on, and lots of people have lost a lot of money by ignoring or arguing with you, you will never be given any credit?
Of course but the tantrums on election night if Boris wins from many on here will be highly amusing none the less
“I’ve lost five grand and voted for a party that lost... how can everyone else be so stupid?!”
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @Roger said: > > If the Lib Dems CHUK and Greens get more votes than Brexit and UKIP the cries for a second referendum would be deafening. > > > > > > They won't so the point is moot.
Careful, if you add SNP/PC, they might get awfully close.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @Roger said: > > > If the Lib Dems CHUK and Greens get more votes than Brexit and UKIP the cries for a second referendum would be deafening. > > > > > > > > > > They won't so the point is moot. > > Careful, if you add SNP/PC, they might get awfully close.
I still don't think that will happen but that wasn't Roger's point.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What are the Tories thinking.... > > > > > > > > > > > > > > They’re not. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories. > > > > > > > > > > > > Tough luck, Boris is coming and going to rally the Brexiteers back into battle. > > > > > > > > > > > > A Boris win in a general election would be delicious just for the look on diehard Remainers and Corbynites faces > > > > > > Ah yes the brave Boris who stood last time and then ran away. > > > The Boris who rallied so many to him his majority reduced at the last election. > > > The Boris whose time at the Foreign Office resulted in most of his counterparts in other countries considering him an offensive joke and in a British citizen having her sentence confirmed rather than released because he couldn’t learn his brief properly. > > > The Boris who could not even stick to a script over the Skripal affair. > > > That brilliant Boris. > > > > > > Honestly, there is therapy for the sorts of delusions the Tory party is suffering from. > > > > The Boris who twice won Labour London as Mayor, the Boris who was pivotal to Leave winning the EU referendum, the Boris who has more charisma than the rest of the current Tory parliamentary party put together, yes that Boris. > > > > We are also in a world of Trump, Bolsonaro, Salvini, Putin, Modi, Netanyahu etc, what Paris and Berlin think of him really does not matter so much on that basis, Trump likes Boris and the US President is still the most powerful man in the world > > You do remember how long ago it was when Boris won the London Mayoralty, that the world was different then and Boris was saying the complete opposite of what he is saying now. > > Still, it’s nice to know that you think the Tory party should be like people as repellent as Salvini and Bolsonaro and Putin and Trump and Netanyahu. Shame on such a Tory party.
It is a myth to say Boris was some sort of liberal progressive when he won London, he was never as extreme as those above maybe but he won by promising tough action on crime etc and by winning bluecollar and lower middle class suburban voters, Livingstone beat Boris comfortably in both 2008 and 2012 in inner London amongst the 'progressive' vote
1) We will only get No Deal by definition with a Tory election victory as the current Commons will always block it
2) The 'sane' wing as you call it of diehard Remainers are going as extinct in the Tories as Blairites in Labour and can be ignored, it is reuniting the Leave coalition that will take the Tories to victory
3) As the polling shows over half the Brexit Party vote returns to the Tories under a Boris leadership, the fanatics will never be appeased other than under a Steve Baker or Francois leadership but the Tories can still win without them as long as they get mainstream Leavers back
The 'diehard Remainers' almost entirely comprise people like me, and approximately two-thirds of Tory MPs, who fully accepted the result of the referendum and have consistently argued for its implementation - including the implementation of the smooth transition promised by every single Brexiteer. Ditch sanity if you wish, but don't be surprised if you find that support for 'no deal' collapses within days of people discovering what no deal actually means.
As for the polling - ha ha. Farage, together with his little helpers like Rees Mogg, Francois and Baker, will soon lambast Boris, or any other leader who actually tries to do anything sensible, as a traitor. These, after all, include people who once were so keen on Theresa May that one of them said that a statue of Theresa May should be erected to commemorate the "Brexit Queen". Do you seriously think they won't turn on the next leader?
> @Mysticrose said: > Sorry about that. Right, here goes: > > My forecast: > > Turnout 42% > > BXP 28.5% > LD 23.5% > LAB 16% > CON 13% > GRN 9% > UKIP 3% > CHUK 2% > OTHER 5%
My best guess: BXP 33 Lab 19 LD 17 Con 10 Green 7 UKIP 4 CHUK 5 Oth 6
I think the Greens have been somewhat elbowed aside in the last few weeks and will disappoint; conversely ChUK are still getting talked about and should do better than their worst poll ratings.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > Flee, Richard, the lunatics have won. > > > > My bags are packed. Just waiting to get my money's worth on my party membership fee, in a no-doubt futile attempt to support the saner of the two candidates in the final round. > > I know we have had our run-ins, but I can only say I’m so sorry that this is happening to you and other sensible, pragmatic Tories who live in the real world. It’s no good for any of us that a major pillar of stability is now in a state of what looks like irredeemable collapse, taken over by liars, fools and charlatans. Politics is not a team sport.
And political parties are not a force for good. Seeing one or both of the main parties destroyed by this is a happy, if unplanned for, consequence. All the more since they have brought it upon themselves by thinking they were more important than the electorate.
> Utterly deluded. Every step the Tories are taking is making a Labour victory at the GE more and more probable. And they’ve been doing it for three years now.<
+++++
It has clearly escaped your attention that the Labour party is also in freefall, in the polls, it's just not - yet - quite as dramatic as the Tories' descent.
There is no guarantee at all that Corbyn will win the next GE. In fact I'd say it is still rather unlikely, whatever happens to Brexit. Corbyn's personal polling is calamitous and he will now be facing a new Tory leader, probably with a honeymoon (however shortlived, and it will be short).
I’d like both Labour and Tories to lose. I’d certainly like Corbyn gone. If he could go at ghe same time as May, hooray! But of the two I’d judge Labour to be more resilient: they can get rid of their leader. They have something to say, much of it attractive, on a range of topics.
Changing the Tories leader won’t help. They are split. There is no guarantee they will get Brexit voters back. They will own the consequences of whatever Brexit they manage to get (if they get it) and if it’s bad it will not help them. They have nothing to say on anything other than Brexit. They have forgotten how to argue for what they claim to believe in. The tide is turning against the sort of free market ideology they have espoused and they have nothing to say on the issues of today let alone tomorrow.
So yes I think the Tories are being incredibly complacent.
I know we have had our run-ins, but I can only say I’m so sorry that this is happening to you and other sensible, pragmatic Tories who live in the real world. It’s no good for any of us that a major pillar of stability is now in a state of what looks like irredeemable collapse, taken over by liars, fools and charlatans. Politics is not a team sport.
Thanks.
The thing is, it wouldn't normally matter too much; the country would switch to a Labour government, which wouldn't be my choice but wouldn't be completely off the wall. But, when the choice is Corbyn, McDonnell and Seamus Milne, it's a different kettle of fish.
> The 'diehard Remainers' almost entirely comprise people like me, and approximately two-thirds of Tory MPs, who fully accepted the result of the referendum and have consistently argued for its implementation - including the implementation of the smooth transition promised by every single Brexiteer. Ditch sanity if you wish, but don't be surprised if you find that support for 'no deal' collapses within days of people discovering what no deal actually means. > > As for the polling - ha ha. Farage, together with his little helpers like Rees Mogg, Francois and Baker, will soon lambast Boris, or any other leader who actually tries to do anything sensible, as a traitor. These, after all, include people who once were so keen on Theresa May that one of them said that a statue of Theresa May should be erected to commemorate the "Brexit Queen". Do you seriously think they won't turn on the next leader? > > https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/a-brexiteer-has-just-appealed-for-a-statue-for-brexit-queen-theresa-may-1-5501735
++++
Yes, but Boris has the chutzpah and the Brexiteer pedigree, to maybe see off Farage. And (sadly) I think he is the only senior Tory who can do that. Raab is bright but.... a bit invisible. Boris can do populism and beat Farage at his own game.
That's why I think Boris will win the leadership. Most Tory MPs, Remain or Leave, will hold their noses and vote for him, as the last best option, however grim. They have no other sensible options (unless a brilliant dark horse comes thru, which might happen). The membership will eagerly elect him.
> @Byronic said: > > @nico67 said: > > I’m past caring who the Tories get in as leader . > > > > The country is fucked beyond belief. < > > +++++ > > It really isn't though, is it? > > I went for a walk in my local park a few hours ago. The sun was shining. Some people ate sandwiches. Others just sunbathed. > > Dogs cantered. Clouds moved. Schoolgirls giggled at schoolboys. > > Marks and Spencers had some nice apple juice, reduced in price. My local west London pub was quite noisy around 7pm (it has a large beer garden), then it quietened down. The gym was busy, ish. > > One of the few consoling things in this hideous Brexit melodrama is how the rest of ordinary British life (and the British economy, thank God) has largely continued as if nothing has happened.
Ah, but you can forget the sandwiches if it's No Deal.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What are the Tories thinking.... > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > They’re not. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > & > > > > > > > > > > > > > A Boris win in a general election would be delicious just for the look on diehard Remainers and Corbynites faces > > > > > > > > > > Ah yes the brave Boris who stood last time and then ran away. > > > > > The Boris who rallied so many to him his majority reduced at the last election. > > > > > The Boris whose time at the Foreign Office resulted in most of his counterparts in other countries considering him an offensive joke and in a British citizen having her sentence confirmed rather than released because he couldn’t learn his brief properly. > > > > > The Boris who could not even stick to a script over the Skripal affair. > > > > > That brilliant Boris. > > > > > > > > > > Honestly, there is therapy for the sorts of delusions the Tory party is suffering from. > > > > > > > > The Boris who twice won Labour London as Mayor, the Boris who was pivotal to Leave winning won the London Mayoralty, that the world was different then and Boris was saying the complete opposite of what he is saying now. > > > > Still, it’s nice to know that you think the Tory party should be like people as repellent as Salvini and Bolsonaro and Putin and Trump and Netanyahu. Shame on such a Tory party. > > It is a myth to say Boris was some sort of liberal progressive when he won London, he was never as extreme as those above maybe but he won by promising tough action on crime etc and by winning bluecollar and lower middle class suburban voters, Livingstone beat Boris comfortably in both 2008 and 2012 in inner London amongst the 'progressive' vote
Also, and I know this might sound revolutionary, but Boris got credit from voters because he was - whisper it - at least perceived to be actually carrying out what he said he would do, whether that be banning alcohol on the Tube, introducing the Boris bus, etc etc. He tended to make quite limited commitments, but then deliver on them once elected.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > Flee, Richard, the lunatics have won. > > > > My bags are packed. Just waiting to get my money's worth on my party membership fee, in a no-doubt futile attempt to support the saner of the two candidates in the final round. > > I know we have had our run-ins, but I can only say I’m so sorry that this is happening to you and other sensible, pragmatic Tories who live in the real world. It’s no good for any of us that a major pillar of stability is now in a state of what looks like irredeemable collapse, taken over by liars, fools and charlatans. Politics is not a team sport.
I remember commiserating when an old friend - a labour councillor in Birmingham - when Corbyn won the leadership. He foresaw Momentum forcing Blairites like him out. He was right. He's now commiserating with me...
> @bigjohnowls said: > If TM resigns tomorrow. > > BBC wouldn't be able to tell us due to their impartiality rules!!
Not quite right. It would be so newsworthy as to warrant mention but they would not be able to endlessly analyse and get talking heads on to discuss - much like most of us would like for BBC news all the time
> @SouthamObserver said: > Corbyn v Johnson will be more divisive and dangerous than a second referendum.<
++++
Johnson would win. and maybe quite easily. People dislike Boris, and think he;s unreliable, but they are actively scared of Corbyn.
I agree it would be horribly divisive. It might also be a good thing. We would be faced with a very serious choice between very different world-views. Time to decide.
And I have decided to go to bed. Night all. Happy voting. Or ballot spoiling.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight > > > > > > > > What are the Tories thinking.... > > > > They’re not. > > > > They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories. > > Tough luck, Boris is coming and going to rally the Brexiteers back into battle. > > A Boris win in a general election would be delicious just for the look on diehard Remainers and Corbynites faces
Yes, but Boris has the chutzpah and the Brexiteer pedigree, to maybe see off Farage. And (sadly) I think he is the only senior Tory who can do that. Raab is bright but.... a bit invisible. Boris can do populism and beat Farage at his own game.
That's why I think Boris will win the leadership. Most Tory MPs, Remain or Leave, will hold their noses and vote for him, as the last best option, however grim. They have no other sensible options (unless a brilliant dark horse comes thru, which might happen). The membership will eagerly elect him.
He might win, and he does have the great merit of being entirely self-serving and without principles, which means he'd have no compunction about stabbing the Brexiteers in the back if he thought it would help his electoral chances. But he'd be as trapped by the conflicting forces as Theresa May is, and he's not exactly someone who inspires loyalty by being loyal to and straight with others. Chutzpah gets you a long way, but I don't think it will be enough.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > I know we have had our run-ins, but I can only say I’m so sorry that this is happening to you and other sensible, pragmatic Tories who live in the real world. It’s no good for any of us that a major pillar of stability is now in a state of what looks like irredeemable collapse, taken over by liars, fools and charlatans. Politics is not a team sport. > > Thanks. > > The thing is, it wouldn't normally matter too much; the country would switch to a Labour government, which wouldn't be my choice but wouldn't be completely off the wall. But, when the choice is Corbyn, McDonnell and Seamus Milne, it's a different kettle of fish.
> > > > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight
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> > > What are the Tories thinking....
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> > > They’re not.
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> > > They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories.
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> > I get your point but... Corbyn. Gulp.
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> > The hard Brexiteers are Corbyn’s useful idiots.
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> They aren't as tomorrow's vote results will show when the Brexit Party trounce Corbyn Labour as much as they trounce May's Tories, the Tories need a leader to win back Brexit Party voters that is all
>
> Utterly deluded. Every step the Tories are taking is making a Labour victory at the GE more and more probable. And they’ve been doing it for three years now.
Utter rubbish and Labour complacency will make a Boris victory even more delicious as the Coalition's victory was in Australia at the weekend over a complacent Labor expecting to waltz to victory on a 'progressive wave'.
Boris as he has shown umpteen times connects with and speaks to skilled working class and lower middle class voters and with Lynton Crosby he will build a coalition to victory based on them
I wonder if Corbyn might finally call it a day if Boris becomes Tory leader? I think McD knows that Bozza would beat Corbo easily, but would quite possibly lose to Thornberry or Nandy
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What are the Tories thinking.... > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > They’re not. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I get your point but... Corbyn. Gulp. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The hard Brexiteers are Corbyn’s useful idiots. > > > > > > > > > > > > They aren't as tomorrow's vote results will show when the Brexit Party trounce Corbyn Labour as much as they trounce May's Tories, the Tories need a leader to win back Brexit Party voters that is all > > > > > > Utterly deluded. Every step the Tories are taking is making a Labour victory at the GE more and more probable. And they’ve been doing it for three years now. > > > > Utter rubbish and Labour complacency will make a Boris victory even more delicious as the Coalition's victory was in Australia at the weekend over a complacent Labor expecting to waltz to victory on a 'progressive wave'. > > > > Boris as he has shown umpteen times connects with and speaks to skilled working class and lower middle class voters and with Lynton Crosby he will build a coalition to victory based on them > > “Umpteen times” = twice, the last time in 2012.
And still the only Tory candidate to do so, Boris was also pivotal in attracting the broad Leave vote which won the EU referendum
> @Cyclefree said: > I> @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > > Utterly deluded. Every step the Tories are taking is making a Labour victory at the GE more and more probable. And they’ve been doing it for three years now.< > > > > +++++ > > > > It has clearly escaped your attention that the Labour party is also in freefall, in the polls, it's just not - yet - quite as dramatic as the Tories' descent. > > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1130119899773382657 > > > > > > There is no guarantee at all that Corbyn will win the next GE. In fact I'd say it is still rather unlikely, whatever happens to Brexit. Corbyn's personal polling is calamitous and he will now be facing a new Tory leader, probably with a honeymoon (however shortlived, and it will be short). > > I’d like both Labour and Tories to lose. I’d certainly like Corbyn gone. If he could go at ghe same time as May, hooray! But of the two I’d judge Labour to be more resilient: they can get rid of their leader. They have something to say, much of it attractive, on a range of topics. > > Changing the Tories leader won’t help. They are split. There is no guarantee they will get Brexit voters back. They will own the consequences of whatever Brexit they manage to get (if they get it) and if it’s bad it will not help them. They have nothing to say on anything other than Brexit. They have forgotten how to argue for what they claim to believe in. The tide is turning against the sort of free market ideology they have espoused and they have nothing to say on the issues of today let alone tomorrow. > > So yes I think the Tories are being incredibly complacent.
They aren't, if they were they would be keeping May
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > 1) We will only get No Deal by definition with a Tory election victory as the current Commons will always block it > > > > 2) The 'sane' wing as you call it of diehard Remainers are going as extinct in the Tories as Blairites in Labour and can be ignored, it is reuniting the Leave coalition that will take the Tories to victory > > > > 3) As the polling shows over half the Brexit Party vote returns to the Tories under a Boris leadership, the fanatics will never be appeased other than under a Steve Baker or Francois leadership but the Tories can still win without them as long as they get mainstream Leavers back > > The 'diehard Remainers' almost entirely comprise people like me, and approximately two-thirds of Tory MPs, who fully accepted the result of the referendum and have consistently argued for its implementation - including the implementation of the smooth transition promised by every single Brexiteer. Ditch sanity if you wish, but don't be surprised if you find that support for 'no deal' collapses within days of people discovering what no deal actually means. > > As for the polling - ha ha. Farage, together with his little helpers like Rees Mogg, Francois and Baker, will soon lambast Boris, or any other leader who actually tries to do anything sensible, as a traitor. These, after all, include people who once were so keen on Theresa May that one of them said that a statue of Theresa May should be erected to commemorate the "Brexit Queen". Do you seriously think they won't turn on the next leader? > > https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/a-brexiteer-has-just-appealed-for-a-statue-for-brexit-queen-theresa-may-1-5501735
They may do but Boris has the charisma, the intelligence, the presence and the gaul and the confidence to outwit them
> @Stereotomy said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight > > > > > > > > > > > > What are the Tories thinking.... > > > > > > They’re not. > > > > > > They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories. > > > > Tough luck, Boris is coming and going to rally the Brexiteers back into battle. > > > > A Boris win in a general election would be delicious just for the look on diehard Remainers and Corbynites faces > > I'm looking forward to that Labour majority
> @KentRising said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Johnny Mercer says he will backs on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What are the Tories thinking.... > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > They’re not. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > & > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > A Boris win in a general election would be delicious just for the look on diehard Remainers and Corbynites faces > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Ah yes the brave Boris who stood last time and then ran away. > > > > > > > The Boris who rallied so many to him his majority reduced at the last election. > > > > > > > The Boris whose time at the Foreign Office resulted in most of his counterparts in other countries considering him an offensive joke and in a British citizen having her sentence confirmed rather than released because he couldn’t learn his brief properly. > > > > > > > The Boris who could not even stick to a script over the Skripal affair. > > > > > > > That brilliant Boris. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Honestly, there is therapy for the sorts of delusions the Tory party is suffering from. > > > > > > > > > > > > The Boris who twice won Labour London as Mayor, the Boris who was pivotal to Leave winning won the London Mayoralty, that the world was different then and Boris was saying the complete opposite of what he is saying now. > > > > > > Still, it’s nice to know that you think the Tory party should be like people as repellent as Salvini and Bolsonaro and Putin and Trump and Netanyahu. Shame on such a Tory party. > > > > It is a myth to say Boris was some sort of liberal progressive when he won London, he was never as extreme as those above maybe but he won by promising tough action on crime etc and by winning bluecollar and lower middle class suburban voters, Livingstone beat Boris comfortably in both 2008 and 2012 in inner London amongst the 'progressive' vote > > Also, and I know this might sound revolutionary, but Boris got credit from voters because he was - whisper it - at least perceived to be actually carrying out what he said he would do, whether that be banning alcohol on the Tube, introducing the Boris bus, etc etc. He tended to make quite limited commitments, but then deliver on them once elected.
Yes, Boris is seen as being an action man whether deserved or not, unfairly or not May isn't
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > I know we have had our run-ins, but I can only say I’m so sorry that this is happening to you and other sensible, pragmatic Tories who live in the real world. It’s no good for any of us that a major pillar of stability is now in a state of what looks like irredeemable collapse, taken over by liars, fools and charlatans. Politics is not a team sport. > > > > Thanks. > > > > The thing is, it wouldn't normally matter too much; the country would switch to a Labour government, which wouldn't be my choice but wouldn't be completely off the wall. But, when the choice is Corbyn, McDonnell and Seamus Milne, it's a different kettle of fish. > > Yep
A patrician, ex Remainer Tory like Hunt would be defeated by Corbyn in the electorate's current mood, to win the Tories need someone like Boris who can beat Corbyn at his own game and can play the populist card too
> 1) We will only get No Deal by definition with a Tory election victory as the current Commons will always block it
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>
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> 2) The 'sane' wing as you call it of diehard Remainers are going as extinct in the Tories as Blairites in Labour and can be ignored, it is reuniting the Leave coalition that will take the Tories to victory
>
>
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> 3) As the polling shows over half the Brexit Party vote returns to the Tories under a Boris leadership, the fanatics will never be appeased other than under a Steve Baker or Francois leadership but the Tories can still win without them as long as they get mainstream Leavers back
>
> The 'diehard Remainers' almost entirely comprise people like me, and approximately two-thirds of Tory MPs, who fully accepted the result of the referendum and have consistently argued for its implementation - including the implementation of the smooth transition promised by every single Brexiteer. Ditch sanity if you wish, but don't be surprised if you find that support for 'no deal' collapses within days of people discovering what no deal actually means.
>
> As for the polling - ha ha. Farage, together with his little helpers like Rees Mogg, Francois and Baker, will soon lambast Boris, or any other leader who actually tries to do anything sensible, as a traitor. These, after all, include people who once were so keen on Theresa May that one of them said that a statue of Theresa May should be erected to commemorate the "Brexit Queen". Do you seriously think they won't turn on the next leader?
> @HYUFD said: > > A patrician, ex Remainer Tory like Hunt would be defeated by Corbyn in the electorate's current mood, to win the Tories need someone like Boris who can beat Corbyn at his own game and can play the populist card too
The two parties you're talking about are about to get thumped in a national election. What makes you so sure it will be between them?
The Tories are going to struggle to win more than one seat in any region IMO, including the South East which is usually their strongest area. I think they'll get about 9 seats, which would be one in each region apart from Wales and the North East.
> @Drutt said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > “Umpteen times” = twice, the last time in 2012. > > What's the last time Boris lost an electoral event? > > Won Uxbridge in 2017 > Won referendum in 2016 > Won Uxbridge in 2015 > Won London in 2012 > Won London in 2008 > Won Henley 2005 > Won Henley 2001 > > I'm red on Boris next PM, bigly, but should I be?
(To be fair, winning Hendon doesn't really demonstrate any ability to connect with working class voters.)
> > Utterly deluded. Every step the Tories are taking is making a Labour victory at the GE more and more probable. And they’ve been doing it for three years now.<
> There is no guarantee at all that Corbyn will win the next GE. In fact I'd say it is still rather unlikely, whatever happens to Brexit. Corbyn's personal polling is calamitous and he will now be facing a new Tory leader, probably with a honeymoon (however shortlived, and it will be short).
>
> I’d like both Labour and Tories to lose. I’d certainly like Corbyn gone. If he could go at ghe same time as May, hooray! But of the two I’d judge Labour to be more resilient: they can get rid of their leader. They have something to say, much of it attractive, on a range of topics.
>
> Changing the Tories leader won’t help. They are split. There is no guarantee they will get Brexit voters back. They will own the consequences of whatever Brexit they manage to get (if they get it) and if it’s bad it will not help them. They have nothing to say on anything other than Brexit. They have forgotten how to argue for what they claim to believe in. The tide is turning against the sort of free market ideology they have espoused and they have nothing to say on the issues of today let alone tomorrow.
>
> So yes I think the Tories are being incredibly complacent.
They aren't, if they were they would be keeping May
They’re in panic mode, are not thinking straight - or at all - and hope that this one change will be all that’s needed. Panic and complacency is quite a common combination in organisations in crises, invariably caused by a lack of clear thinking.
But hey I may be wrong. You’re the Tory loyalist. I view the Tories now like something unpleasant the cat’s dragged in.
All I want is to avoid a No Deal departure and a Corbyn government. I don’t much care how we get there. If electing Nicola Sturgeon PM would do it, I’d vote for her.
> @KentRising said: > > 3. Even if the first two problems weren't insoluble, how on earth would Boris, or anyone else for that matter, outbid Nigel Farage who would be crying 'Betrayal!' whatever the government did? > > Boris could invite Nigel onto the UK's negotiating team! Nigel said today that if the Brexit Party wins big he would like Brexit MEPs to be invited in to 'help' with the negotiations...
Assuming the EU side had agreed to these negotiations in the first place, the BXP guys would dutifully show up for a bunch of meetings, then once an unpopular compromise showed up they'd walk out and denounce the weakness and incompetence of their Tory colleagues.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > I know we have had our run-ins, but I can only say I’m so sorry that this is happening to you and other sensible, pragmatic Tories who live in the real world. It’s no good for any of us that a major pillar of stability is now in a state of what looks like irredeemable collapse, taken over by liars, fools and charlatans. Politics is not a team sport. > > > > Thanks. > > > > The thing is, it wouldn't normally matter too much; the country would switch to a Labour government, which wouldn't be my choice but wouldn't be completely off the wall. But, when the choice is Corbyn, McDonnell and Seamus Milne, it's a different kettle of fish. > > Yep
I'd happily sacrifice the Tory party of it took Labour down with it.
> @rcs1000 said: > @HYUFD said: > And still the only Tory candidate to do so, Boris was also pivotal in attracting the broad Leave vote which won the EU referendum > > +++++++++++++ > > Citation, please
What's the last time Boris lost an electoral event?
Won Uxbridge in 2017
Won referendum in 2016
Won Uxbridge in 2015
Won London in 2012
Won London in 2008
Won Henley 2005
Won Henley 2001
I'm red on Boris next PM, bigly, but should I be?
He lost Clwyd South when he first stood as an MP.
Henley: that bastion of skilled working class voters. Winning there 14 years ago proves what, exactly, about his vote winning abilities now?
He won London - on a very different platform to now - and the last time in 2012.
His majority was reduced in Uxbridge in 2017.
He was one of the people on the Leave campaign and then ran away from the leadership fight.
This claim that he has proved umpteen times how good he is at winning votes all over the country is, frankly, bullshit. It has a little merit but nowhere near as much as his supporters like to claim.
> @williamglenn said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > A patrician, ex Remainer Tory like Hunt would be defeated by Corbyn in the electorate's current mood, to win the Tories need someone like Boris who can beat Corbyn at his own game and can play the populist card too > > The two parties you're talking about are about to get thumped in a national election. What makes you so sure it will be between them?
Well it is not impossible it could be between the Brexit Party and LDs if the Tories picked Hunt or Gove to replace May and Corbyn stayed Labour leader I agree
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > I> @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Utterly deluded. Every step the Tories are taking is making a Labour victory at the GE more and more probable. And they’ve been doing it for three years now.< > > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1130119899773382657 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > There is no guarantee at all that Corbyn will win the next GE. In fact I'd say it is still rather unlikely, whatever happens to Brexit. Corbyn's personal polling is calamitous and he will now be facing a new Tory leader, probably with a honeymoon (however shortlived, and it will be short). > > > > > > I’d like both Labour and Tories to lose. I’d certainly like Corbyn gone. If he could go at ghe same time as May, hooray! But of the two I’d judge Labour to be more resilient: they can get rid of their leader. They have something to say, much of it attractive, on a range of topics. > > > > > > Changing the Tories leader won’t help. They are split. There is no guarantee they will get Brexit voters back. They will own the consequences of whatever Brexit they manage to get (if they get it) and if it’s bad it will not help them. They have nothing to say on anything other than Brexit. They have forgotten how to argue for what they claim to believe in. The tide is turning against the sort of free market ideology they have espoused and they have nothing to say on the issues of today let alone tomorrow. > > > > > > So yes I think the Tories are being incredibly complacent. > > > > They aren't, if they were they would be keeping May > > They’re in panic mode, are not thinking straight - or at all - and hope that this one change will be all that’s needed. Panic and complacency is quite a common combination in organisations in crises, invariably caused by a lack of clear thinking. > > But hey I may be wrong. You’re the Tory loyalist. I view the Tories now like something unpleasant the cat’s dragged in. > > All I want is to avoid a No Deal departure and a Corbyn government. I don’t much care how we get there. If electing Nicola Sturgeon PM would do it, I’d vote for her. > > Good night.
The best way to do that ironically is to get the WA passed and then elect Boris as the new Tory leader
So, the two Presidents with the lowest levels of opposition (Carter and Bush Sr) did not get reelected. While the two with the highest (Clinton and Obama) did.
Personally, I'd like Trump to get reelected so that he's on the hook for fallout from his reckless expansion of the government deficit (which has the side effect of worsening the trade deficit).
A thought just crossed my mind about why the Labour vote collapse is mirroring the Tory one - regardless of how crap or left wing Corbyn is, if you vote Labour as the non-Tory party, if there is no Tory party, there's no reason to vote Labour.
Comments
The Boris who rallied so many to him his majority reduced at the last election.
The Boris whose time at the Foreign Office resulted in most of his counterparts in other countries considering him an offensive joke and in a British citizen having her sentence confirmed rather than released because he couldn’t learn his brief properly.
The Boris who could not even stick to a script over the Skripal affair.
That brilliant Boris.
Honestly, there is therapy for the sorts of delusions the Tory party is suffering from.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > If Corbyn leaves and is replaced by someone sensible ie not a Marxist or an anti-semite and people like Milne and Murray kicked out, I would seriously consider them. The Tories will not be fit for polite society for a long time. The Brexit Party are unspeakable.
> >
> > The Lib Dems are my preference but it depends on who their next leader is.
>
> The Change UK Party were supposedly the sensible Labour alternative...however that's not going so well.
>
> I fear though the public don't want a sensible centre left / centre right government. It seems like they want the apple cart overturned.
Yep, I said last night. It is Farage or Corbyn (or his successor) who will succeed the Tories in office. The next Tory leader faces all the same issues this one did. (And I don't buy the EU will re-negotiate, or the Tories will unite around Hard Brexit, they won't).
Pick a side. I have.
> > @another_richard said:
>
> > If the LibDems get less than the 17% they got at the local elections it will be a humiliation.
>
> Lol. So, say, 16% would be a humiliation? Where do people dredge up this sort of guff?
>
> What I would say, to be anecdotal, is that Lib Dem workers on the ground report something unprecedented is happening and they're not referring to the BP.
And that's why it would be a humiliation.
Unrestrained ramping followed by a fall in votes.
> > @another_richard said:
>
> > If the LibDems get less than the 17% they got at the local elections it will be a humiliation.
>
> Lol. So, say, 16% would be a humiliation? Where do people dredge up this sort of guff?
>
> What I would say, to be anecdotal, is that Lib Dem workers on the ground report something unprecedented is happening and they're not referring to the BP.
My optimum betting position is turnout less than 30%, Lab less than 10%, Con in 3rd place and LD top place. I think the last unlikely, but the others very possible.
Encouraging the ERG nutjobs to be even more nutty and destructive is not going to help, is it?
> > @nico67 said:
> > I’m past caring who the Tories get in as leader .
> >
> > The country is fucked beyond belief. <
>
> +++++
>
> It really isn't though, is it?
>
> I went for a walk in my local park a few hours ago. The sun was shining. Some people ate sandwiches. Others just sunbathed.
>
> Dogs cantered. Clouds moved. Schoolgirls giggled at schoolboys.
>
> Marks and Spencers had some nice apple juice, reduced in price. My local west London pub was quite noisy around 7pm (it has a large beer garden), then it quietened down. The gym was busy, ish.
>
> One of the few consoling things in this hideous Brexit melodrama is how the rest of ordinary British life (and the British economy, thank God) has largely continued as if nothing has happened.
>
>
>
>
Lowest unemployment level since 1974 or something, as well. Half the EU average. And it still costs £300,000 to buy a gardenless two-bedroom terrace house round here, last time I looked.
> > @nico67 said:
> > I’m past caring who the Tories get in as leader .
> >
> > The country is fucked beyond belief. <
>
> +++++
>
> It really isn't though, is it?
>
> I went for a walk in my local park a few hours ago. The sun was shining. Some people ate sandwiches. Others just sunbathed.
>
> Dogs cantered. Clouds moved. Schoolgirls giggled at schoolboys.
>
> Marks and Spencers had some nice apple juice, reduced in price. My local west London pub was quite noisy around 7pm (it has a large beer garden), then it quietened down. The gym was busy, ish.
>
> One of the few consoling things in this hideous Brexit melodrama is how the rest of ordinary British life (and the British economy, thank God) has largely continued as if nothing has happened.
>
>
>
>
Quite so.
What the last few months have revealed is how well the country can operate without a functioning government.
Its rather European ironically.
> Plans to expand the 2022 World Cup to 48 teams have been abandoned by Fifa.
Good.
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> >
> > > If Corbyn leaves and is replaced by someone sensible ie not a Marxist or an anti-semite and people like Milne and Murray kicked out, I would seriously consider them. The Tories will not be fit for polite society for a long time. The Brexit Party are unspeakable.
> > >
> > > The Lib Dems are my preference but it depends on who their next leader is.
> >
> > The Change UK Party were supposedly the sensible Labour alternative...however that's not going so well.
> >
> > I fear though the public don't want a sensible centre left / centre right government. It seems like they want the apple cart overturned.
>
> Yep, I said last night. It is Farage or Corbyn (or his successor) who will succeed the Tories in office. The next Tory leader faces all the same issues this one did. (And I don't buy the EU will re-negotiate, or the Tories will unite around Hard Brexit, they won't).
> Pick a side. I have.
The vast majority of Tory members and 2017 Tory voters now back No Deal if May's Deal fails again, Boris can reunite that coalition and bring back Brexit Party voters to beat Corbyn
BBC wouldn't be able to tell us due to their impartiality rules!!
> If TM resigns tomorrow.
>
> BBC wouldn't be able to tell us due to their impartiality rules!!
You're joking. How could a statement of fact be prejudicial as far as an election is concerned?
> If TM resigns tomorrow.
>
> BBC wouldn't be able to tell us due to their impartiality rules!!
They will, but it'll just be "The Prime Minister has resigned" with no further comment.
> > @bigjohnowls said:
> > If TM resigns tomorrow.
> >
> > BBC wouldn't be able to tell us due to their impartiality rules!!
>
> They will, but it'll just be "The Prime Minister has resigned" with no further comment.
That'd be surreal, and glorious.
> > @Byronic said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > I’m past caring who the Tories get in as leader .
> > >
> > > The country is fucked beyond belief. <
> >
> > +++++
> >
> > It really isn't though, is it?
> >
> > I went for a walk in my local park a few hours ago. The sun was shining. Some people ate sandwiches. Others just sunbathed.
> >
> > Dogs cantered. Clouds moved. Schoolgirls giggled at schoolboys.
> >
> > Marks and Spencers had some nice apple juice, reduced in price. My local west London pub was quite noisy around 7pm (it has a large beer garden), then it quietened down. The gym was busy, ish.
> >
> > One of the few consoling things in this hideous Brexit melodrama is how the rest of ordinary British life (and the British economy, thank God) has largely continued as if nothing has happened.
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
> Lowest unemployment level since 1974 or something, as well. Half the EU average.
I suspect that saying that in Scunthorpe tonight would not go down well!
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > Plans to expand the 2022 World Cup to 48 teams have been abandoned by Fifa.
>
> Good.
+1
> > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > @Byronic said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast.
> > > >
> > > > 33% Turnout
> > > >
> > > > 31% BXP
> > > > 21% LD
> > > > 14% Con
> > > > 12% Lab
> > > > 10% Green
> > > > 4% CHUK
> > > > 4% UKIP
> > > > 4% Other
> > > >
> > > > <
> > >
> > > ++++
> > >
> > > After a walk in the park, where I talked to no one, and had no insights, my forecast:
> > >
> > > Turnout: 39%
> > >
> > > BXP: 32%
> > > Lab: 19%
> > > Con: 15%
> > > LD: 15%
> > > Green: 9%
> > > CUK: 3%
> > > UKIP: 2%
> > > SNP & PC: 5%
> > >
> > > I haven't added them up so please don't harangue me if they add up to 109%.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > Byronic very close to my prediction.
> >
> > BXP 33%
> > Lab 18.6%
> > Con 15%
> > LD 14%
> > Green 9%
> > UKIP 3%
> > Cut 3%
> > Other 4.4%
>
> If the LibDems get less than the 17% they got at the local elections it will be a humiliation.
Quite a few Brexiteers voted LD at local elections to punish the 2 big parties imo
Boris will try and renegotiate with the EU and remove the backstop, if the EU refuse he will call a snap general election in October to get a mandate for a hard Brexit
+++++++++++++
Nah, he'll come back with the backstop renamed the "interim transitional arrangement (Northern Ireland)" and it will now be the "Exit Agreement".
Everyone will cheer at his genius at beating the Brussels bureaucrats, and only much later will people realise that he sold them Mrs May's deal.
Which, it will also turn out, will be fine for the UK.
Brexit Party: 35-40%
Lib-Dem 18-23%
Labour 10-15%
Green 10-15%
Con 5-10%
CHUK 1-5%
UKIP 1-5%
Turnout - No idea but will be higher than most people expect as Brexiteers are extremely motivated as are Remainers.
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > The end of May is more brutal and miserable than the end of any PM I can recall.
> >
> > Indeed so. One has to feel sympathy for her on a personal level, admiration for her resilience, and acknowledgement that on the big picture she has been right.
> >
> > But... it has to be said that she has made the end more brutal and miserable than it needed to be. She has had numerous opportunities to retire from the fray on her own terms and with honour. Immediately after the 2017 election and in December 2018 were the most obvious ones.
>
> She has made serious errors. She lost me when she turned to brinkmanship. But she did not deserve this. Her own side treat her so very badly.
If she had shown a morsel of compassion as a Home Secretary I might have agreed with you but she didn't. She behaved like the the school bully so you could call this Karma.
> > @bigjohnowls said:
> > If TM resigns tomorrow.
> >
> > BBC wouldn't be able to tell us due to their impartiality rules!!
>
> You're joking. How could a statement of fact be prejudicial as far as an election is concerned?
I am joking yes
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
>
> >
>
> > > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > What are the Tories thinking....
>
> >
>
> > They’re not.
>
> >
>
> > They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories.
>
>
>
> Tough luck, Boris is coming and going to rally the Brexiteers back into battle.
>
>
>
> A Boris win in a general election would be delicious just for the look on diehard Remainers and Corbynites faces
>
> Ah yes the brave Boris who stood last time and then ran away.
> The Boris who rallied so many to him his majority reduced at the last election.
> The Boris whose time at the Foreign Office resulted in most of his counterparts in other countries considering him an offensive joke and in a British citizen having her sentence confirmed rather than released because he couldn’t learn his brief properly.
> The Boris who could not even stick to a script over the Skripal affair.
> That brilliant Boris.
>
> Honestly, there is therapy for the sorts of delusions the Tory party is suffering from.
The Boris who twice won Labour London as Mayor, the Boris who was pivotal to Leave winning the EU referendum, the Boris who has more charisma than the rest of the current Tory parliamentary party put together, yes that Boris.
We are also in a world of Trump, Bolsonaro, Salvini, Putin, Modi, Netanyahu etc, what Paris and Berlin think of him really does not matter so much on that basis, Trump likes Boris and the US President is still the most powerful man in the world
> > @another_richard said:
>
> > If the LibDems get less than the 17% they got at the local elections it will be a humiliation.
>
> Lol. So, say, 16% would be a humiliation? Where do people dredge up this sort of guff?
>
> What I would say, to be anecdotal, is that Lib Dem workers on the ground report something unprecedented is happening and they're not referring to the BP.
The LDs ought to clean up in places like Oxfordshire, north Hampshire, Bath, Bristol, etc.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > If TM resigns tomorrow.
> > >
> > > BBC wouldn't be able to tell us due to their impartiality rules!!
> >
> > You're joking. How could a statement of fact be prejudicial as far as an election is concerned?
>
> I am joking yes
Are you voting Farage?
1. Do you anticipate Boris beating Corbyn on that platform before or after the catastrophic fallout from a no-deal crash-out?
2. How would Boris, or anyone else for that matter, keep the sane part of the party on board in implementing a no-deal crash-out?
3. Even if the first two problems weren't insoluble, how on earth would Boris, or anyone else for that matter, outbid Nigel Farage who would be crying 'Betrayal!' whatever the government did?
> @HYUFD said:
> Boris will try and renegotiate with the EU and remove the backstop, if the EU refuse he will call a snap general election in October to get a mandate for a hard Brexit
>
> +++++++++++++
>
> Nah, he'll come back with the backstop renamed the "interim transitional arrangement (Northern Ireland)" and it will now be the "Exit Agreement".
>
> Everyone will cheer at his genius at beating the Brussels bureaucrats, and only much later will people realise that he sold them Mrs May's deal.
>
> Which, it will also turn out, will be fine for the UK.<
++++
Yes, that's my feeling. But it may just be my hope. A cheery whistle in the dark.
> @HYUFD said:
> Boris will try and renegotiate with the EU and remove the backstop, if the EU refuse he will call a snap general election in October to get a mandate for a hard Brexit
>
> +++++++++++++
>
> Nah, he'll come back with the backstop renamed the "interim transitional arrangement (Northern Ireland)" and it will now be the "Exit Agreement".
>
> Everyone will cheer at his genius at beating the Brussels bureaucrats, and only much later will people realise that he sold them Mrs May's deal.
>
> Which, it will also turn out, will be fine for the UK.
I can only hope you are right.
> If the Lib Dems CHUK and Greens get more votes than Brexit and UKIP the cries for a second referendum would be deafening.
>
>
They wont and then you need to add Con/Lab to the Brexit total anyway.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > > @Cyclefree said:
>
> >
>
> > > > @HYUFD said:
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > What are the Tories thinking....
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > They’re not.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > I get your point but... Corbyn. Gulp.
>
> >
>
> > The hard Brexiteers are Corbyn’s useful idiots.
>
>
>
> They aren't as tomorrow's vote results will show when the Brexit Party trounce Corbyn Labour as much as they trounce May's Tories, the Tories need a leader to win back Brexit Party voters that is all
>
> Utterly deluded. Every step the Tories are taking is making a Labour victory at the GE more and more probable. And they’ve been doing it for three years now.
Utter rubbish and Labour complacency will make a Boris victory even more delicious as the Coalition's victory was in Australia at the weekend over a complacent Labor expecting to waltz to victory on a 'progressive wave'.
Boris as he has shown umpteen times connects with and speaks to skilled working class and lower middle class voters and with Lynton Crosby he will build a coalition to victory based on them
> > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > > If TM resigns tomorrow.
> > > >
> > > > BBC wouldn't be able to tell us due to their impartiality rules!!
> > >
> > > You're joking. How could a statement of fact be prejudicial as far as an election is concerned?
> >
> > I am joking yes
>
> Are you voting Farage?
No I voted Corbyn.
> > @FF43 said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1131303186210447360
> >
> > I would be surprised if the SNP don't get 3 MEPs and they have the chance of a fourth.
>
> SCOTLAND:
> 14.3% or above mathematically guarantees an MEP
> 6.6% or less mathematically guarantees no MEP
>
> Now, add in the following assumptions:
> 2 Independents, UKIP and CHUK will all fail to return an MEP
> They will poll between them at least 5.5%, but not more than 12%
>
> Now, with these assumptions
> more than 13.5% guarantees an MEP
> less than 8% or less guarantees no MEP
>
> As SNP scale up.to multiple seats, each seat means another party (likely Lab, Con or Green) will be excluded from the seat count.
>
> Let's assume each excluded party carries at least 5.25% vote share, which is now wasted.
>
> Adding this assumption:
> more than 27% guarantees 2 MEPs
> 38.3% or more guarantees 3 MEPs
> more than 48% guarantees 4 MEPs
>
> A mid point can be assessed by assuming that the competitive parties all average half the quota worth of excess votes, except that the party returning the final MEP, by definition, does not exceed quota
>
> We'll fix the minor party vote here at a little over 8.6%
>
> On this:
> 10.75% of the vote returns each MEP as a mid point assumption
> Because this mid point already includes wasted votes, it scales linearly.
> 32.25% is a mid point for returning 3 MEPs
> 43% is mid point for returning 4 MEPs.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
I d'hont know how you do it. There's ten minutes left but that's the most PB post of the day.
> The vast majority of Tory members and 2017 Tory voters now back No Deal if May's Deal fails again, Boris can reunite that coalition and bring back Brexit Party voters to beat Corbyn
>
> Three questions:
>
> 1. Do you anticipate Boris beating Corbyn on that platform before or after the catastrophic fallout from a no-deal crash-out?
>
> 2. How would Boris, or anyone else for that matter, keep the sane part of the party on board in implementing a no-deal crash-out?
>
> 3. Even if the first two problems weren't insoluble, how on earth would Boris, or anyone else for that matter, outbid Nigel Farage who would be crying 'Betrayal!' whatever the government did?
Flee, Richard, the lunatics have won.
> The vast majority of Tory members and 2017 Tory voters now back No Deal if May's Deal fails again, Boris can reunite that coalition and bring back Brexit Party voters to beat Corbyn
>
> Three questions:
>
> 1. Do you anticipate Boris beating Corbyn on that platform before or after the catastrophic fallout from a no-deal crash-out?
>
> 2. How would Boris, or anyone else for that matter, keep the sane part of the party on board in implementing a no-deal crash-out?
>
> 3. Even if the first two problems weren't insoluble, how on earth would Boris, or anyone else for that matter, outbid Nigel Farage who would be crying 'Betrayal!' whatever the government did?
Boris could invite Nigel onto the UK's negotiating team! Nigel said today that if the Brexit Party wins big he would like Brexit MEPs to be invited in to 'help' with the negotiations...
>
> Utterly deluded. Every step the Tories are taking is making a Labour victory at the GE more and more probable. And they’ve been doing it for three years now.<
+++++
It has clearly escaped your attention that the Labour party is also in freefall, in the polls, it's just not - yet - quite as dramatic as the Tories' descent.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1130119899773382657
There is no guarantee at all that Corbyn will win the next GE. In fact I'd say it is still rather unlikely, whatever happens to Brexit. Corbyn's personal polling is calamitous and he will now be facing a new Tory leader, probably with a honeymoon (however shortlived, and it will be short).
> If the Lib Dems CHUK and Greens get more votes than Brexit and UKIP the cries for a second referendum would be deafening.
>
>
They won't so the point is moot.
Still, it’s nice to know that you think the Tory party should be like people as repellent as Salvini and Bolsonaro and Putin and Trump and Netanyahu. Shame on such a Tory party.
> The vast majority of Tory members and 2017 Tory voters now back No Deal if May's Deal fails again, Boris can reunite that coalition and bring back Brexit Party voters to beat Corbyn
>
> Three questions:
>
> 1. Do you anticipate Boris beating Corbyn on that platform before or after the catastrophic fallout from a no-deal crash-out?
>
> 2. How would Boris, or anyone else for that matter, keep the sane part of the party on board in implementing a no-deal crash-out?
>
> 3. Even if the first two problems weren't insoluble, how on earth would Boris, or anyone else for that matter, outbid Nigel Farage who would be crying 'Betrayal!' whatever the government did?
1) We will only get No Deal by definition with a Tory election victory as the current Commons will always block it
2) The 'sane' wing as you call it of diehard Remainers are going as extinct in the Tories as Blairites in Labour and can be ignored, it is reuniting the Leave coalition that will take the Tories to victory
3) As the polling shows over half the Brexit Party vote returns to the Tories under a Boris leadership, the fanatics will never be appeased other than under a Steve Baker or Francois leadership but the Tories can still win without them as long as they get mainstream Leavers back
> Flee, Richard, the lunatics have won.
>
> My bags are packed. Just waiting to get my money's worth on my party membership fee, in a no-doubt futile attempt to support the saner of the two candidates in the final round.<
++++
Who would you favour? It must be a Brexiteer, surely. The Tories have tried a Remainer and it was a disaster. The Brexiteers have to own Brexit, for good or bad. Also a Brexiteer is the only hope of reuniting the party.
So that means Gove, Johnson, Raab, McVey, Mordaunt....
Of that lot, I think only Johnson can fire up the base (and boy, do they need firing up), he is also sufficiently duplicitous and careerist that he will try and sell a very soft Brexit as a hard Brexit - and he might just get away with it.
And he has form for winning elections.
I am not a fan of Johnson's political career. But I can see why Tories are turning to him, in despair.
> Boris as he has shown umpteen times connects with and speaks to skilled working class and lower middle class voters and with Lyndon Crosby he will build a coalition to victory based on them
>
> You do realise that even if you are proven to have called this absolutely spot on, and lots of people have lost a lot of money by ignoring or arguing with you, you will never be given any credit?
Of course but the tantrums on election night if Boris wins from many on here will be highly amusing none the less
> Flee, Richard, the lunatics have won.
>
> My bags are packed. Just waiting to get my money's worth on my party membership fee, in a no-doubt futile attempt to support the saner of the two candidates in the final round.
I know we have had our run-ins, but I can only say I’m so sorry that this is happening to you and other sensible, pragmatic Tories who live in the real world. It’s no good for any of us that a major pillar of stability is now in a state of what looks like irredeemable collapse, taken over by liars, fools and charlatans. Politics is not a team sport.
> > @Roger said:
> > If the Lib Dems CHUK and Greens get more votes than Brexit and UKIP the cries for a second referendum would be deafening.
> >
> >
>
> They wont and then you need to add Con/Lab to the Brexit total anyway.
This election has no meaning other than a surrogate for voters views on Brexit. Any serous Brexiteer should vote Farage or UKIP any serious Remainer should vote Lib Dem Green CHUK or SNP. The Tory/Labour tribalists can be ignored they're obviosly not voting on Brexit
> > @Roger said:
> > If the Lib Dems CHUK and Greens get more votes than Brexit and UKIP the cries for a second referendum would be deafening.
> >
> >
>
> They won't so the point is moot.
Careful, if you add SNP/PC, they might get awfully close.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @Roger said:
> > > If the Lib Dems CHUK and Greens get more votes than Brexit and UKIP the cries for a second referendum would be deafening.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > They won't so the point is moot.
>
> Careful, if you add SNP/PC, they might get awfully close.
I still don't think that will happen but that wasn't Roger's point.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > > @Cyclefree said:
>
> >
>
> > > > @HYUFD said:
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > What are the Tories thinking....
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > They’re not.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Tough luck, Boris is coming and going to rally the Brexiteers back into battle.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > A Boris win in a general election would be delicious just for the look on diehard Remainers and Corbynites faces
>
> >
>
> > Ah yes the brave Boris who stood last time and then ran away.
>
> > The Boris who rallied so many to him his majority reduced at the last election.
>
> > The Boris whose time at the Foreign Office resulted in most of his counterparts in other countries considering him an offensive joke and in a British citizen having her sentence confirmed rather than released because he couldn’t learn his brief properly.
>
> > The Boris who could not even stick to a script over the Skripal affair.
>
> > That brilliant Boris.
>
> >
>
> > Honestly, there is therapy for the sorts of delusions the Tory party is suffering from.
>
>
>
> The Boris who twice won Labour London as Mayor, the Boris who was pivotal to Leave winning the EU referendum, the Boris who has more charisma than the rest of the current Tory parliamentary party put together, yes that Boris.
>
>
>
> We are also in a world of Trump, Bolsonaro, Salvini, Putin, Modi, Netanyahu etc, what Paris and Berlin think of him really does not matter so much on that basis, Trump likes Boris and the US President is still the most powerful man in the world
>
> You do remember how long ago it was when Boris won the London Mayoralty, that the world was different then and Boris was saying the complete opposite of what he is saying now.
>
> Still, it’s nice to know that you think the Tory party should be like people as repellent as Salvini and Bolsonaro and Putin and Trump and Netanyahu. Shame on such a Tory party.
It is a myth to say Boris was some sort of liberal progressive when he won London, he was never as extreme as those above maybe but he won by promising tough action on crime etc and by winning bluecollar and lower middle class suburban voters, Livingstone beat Boris comfortably in both 2008 and 2012 in inner London amongst the 'progressive' vote
As for the polling - ha ha. Farage, together with his little helpers like Rees Mogg, Francois and Baker, will soon lambast Boris, or any other leader who actually tries to do anything sensible, as a traitor. These, after all, include people who once were so keen on Theresa May that one of them said that a statue of Theresa May should be erected to commemorate the "Brexit Queen". Do you seriously think they won't turn on the next leader?
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/a-brexiteer-has-just-appealed-for-a-statue-for-brexit-queen-theresa-may-1-5501735
> Sorry about that. Right, here goes:
>
> My forecast:
>
> Turnout 42%
>
> BXP 28.5%
> LD 23.5%
> LAB 16%
> CON 13%
> GRN 9%
> UKIP 3%
> CHUK 2%
> OTHER 5%
My best guess:
BXP 33
Lab 19
LD 17
Con 10
Green 7
UKIP 4
CHUK 5
Oth 6
I think the Greens have been somewhat elbowed aside in the last few weeks and will disappoint; conversely ChUK are still getting talked about and should do better than their worst poll ratings.
But who knows!
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > Flee, Richard, the lunatics have won.
> >
> > My bags are packed. Just waiting to get my money's worth on my party membership fee, in a no-doubt futile attempt to support the saner of the two candidates in the final round.
>
> I know we have had our run-ins, but I can only say I’m so sorry that this is happening to you and other sensible, pragmatic Tories who live in the real world. It’s no good for any of us that a major pillar of stability is now in a state of what looks like irredeemable collapse, taken over by liars, fools and charlatans. Politics is not a team sport.
And political parties are not a force for good. Seeing one or both of the main parties destroyed by this is a happy, if unplanned for, consequence. All the more since they have brought it upon themselves by thinking they were more important than the electorate.
Changing the Tories leader won’t help. They are split. There is no guarantee they will get Brexit voters back. They will own the consequences of whatever Brexit they manage to get (if they get it) and if it’s bad it will not help them. They have nothing to say on anything other than Brexit. They have forgotten how to argue for what they claim to believe in. The tide is turning against the sort of free market ideology they have espoused and they have nothing to say on the issues of today let alone tomorrow.
So yes I think the Tories are being incredibly complacent.
The thing is, it wouldn't normally matter too much; the country would switch to a Labour government, which wouldn't be my choice but wouldn't be completely off the wall. But, when the choice is Corbyn, McDonnell and Seamus Milne, it's a different kettle of fish.
> The 'diehard Remainers' almost entirely comprise people like me, and approximately two-thirds of Tory MPs, who fully accepted the result of the referendum and have consistently argued for its implementation - including the implementation of the smooth transition promised by every single Brexiteer. Ditch sanity if you wish, but don't be surprised if you find that support for 'no deal' collapses within days of people discovering what no deal actually means.
>
> As for the polling - ha ha. Farage, together with his little helpers like Rees Mogg, Francois and Baker, will soon lambast Boris, or any other leader who actually tries to do anything sensible, as a traitor. These, after all, include people who once were so keen on Theresa May that one of them said that a statue of Theresa May should be erected to commemorate the "Brexit Queen". Do you seriously think they won't turn on the next leader?
>
> https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/a-brexiteer-has-just-appealed-for-a-statue-for-brexit-queen-theresa-may-1-5501735
++++
Yes, but Boris has the chutzpah and the Brexiteer pedigree, to maybe see off Farage. And (sadly) I think he is the only senior Tory who can do that. Raab is bright but.... a bit invisible. Boris can do populism and beat Farage at his own game.
That's why I think Boris will win the leadership. Most Tory MPs, Remain or Leave, will hold their noses and vote for him, as the last best option, however grim. They have no other sensible options (unless a brilliant dark horse comes thru, which might happen). The membership will eagerly elect him.
> > @nico67 said:
> > I’m past caring who the Tories get in as leader .
> >
> > The country is fucked beyond belief. <
>
> +++++
>
> It really isn't though, is it?
>
> I went for a walk in my local park a few hours ago. The sun was shining. Some people ate sandwiches. Others just sunbathed.
>
> Dogs cantered. Clouds moved. Schoolgirls giggled at schoolboys.
>
> Marks and Spencers had some nice apple juice, reduced in price. My local west London pub was quite noisy around 7pm (it has a large beer garden), then it quietened down. The gym was busy, ish.
>
> One of the few consoling things in this hideous Brexit melodrama is how the rest of ordinary British life (and the British economy, thank God) has largely continued as if nothing has happened.
Ah, but you can forget the sandwiches if it's No Deal.
Also probably the dogs after a few weeks ...
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> >
> > > > @Cyclefree said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > What are the Tories thinking....
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > They’re not.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > &
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > A Boris win in a general election would be delicious just for the look on diehard Remainers and Corbynites faces
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Ah yes the brave Boris who stood last time and then ran away.
> >
> > > The Boris who rallied so many to him his majority reduced at the last election.
> >
> > > The Boris whose time at the Foreign Office resulted in most of his counterparts in other countries considering him an offensive joke and in a British citizen having her sentence confirmed rather than released because he couldn’t learn his brief properly.
> >
> > > The Boris who could not even stick to a script over the Skripal affair.
> >
> > > That brilliant Boris.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Honestly, there is therapy for the sorts of delusions the Tory party is suffering from.
> >
> >
> >
> > The Boris who twice won Labour London as Mayor, the Boris who was pivotal to Leave winning won the London Mayoralty, that the world was different then and Boris was saying the complete opposite of what he is saying now.
> >
> > Still, it’s nice to know that you think the Tory party should be like people as repellent as Salvini and Bolsonaro and Putin and Trump and Netanyahu. Shame on such a Tory party.
>
> It is a myth to say Boris was some sort of liberal progressive when he won London, he was never as extreme as those above maybe but he won by promising tough action on crime etc and by winning bluecollar and lower middle class suburban voters, Livingstone beat Boris comfortably in both 2008 and 2012 in inner London amongst the 'progressive' vote
Also, and I know this might sound revolutionary, but Boris got credit from voters because he was - whisper it - at least perceived to be actually carrying out what he said he would do, whether that be banning alcohol on the Tube, introducing the Boris bus, etc etc. He tended to make quite limited commitments, but then deliver on them once elected.
> Sorry about that. Right, here goes:
>
> My forecast:
>
> Turnout 42%
>
> BXP 28.5%
> LD 23.5%
> LAB 16%
> CON 13%
> GRN 9%
> UKIP 3%
> CHUK 2%
> OTHER 5%
I think........
Turnout : 43%
BXP: 35%
Lab: 17%
Libdems 15%
Con: 12%
Greens: 9%
Chuck: 3%
UKIP: 2%
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > Flee, Richard, the lunatics have won.
> >
> > My bags are packed. Just waiting to get my money's worth on my party membership fee, in a no-doubt futile attempt to support the saner of the two candidates in the final round.
>
> I know we have had our run-ins, but I can only say I’m so sorry that this is happening to you and other sensible, pragmatic Tories who live in the real world. It’s no good for any of us that a major pillar of stability is now in a state of what looks like irredeemable collapse, taken over by liars, fools and charlatans. Politics is not a team sport.
I remember commiserating when an old friend - a labour councillor in Birmingham - when Corbyn won the leadership. He foresaw Momentum forcing Blairites like him out. He was right. He's now commiserating with me...
> If TM resigns tomorrow.
>
> BBC wouldn't be able to tell us due to their impartiality rules!!
Not quite right. It would be so newsworthy as to warrant mention but they would not be able to endlessly analyse and get talking heads on to discuss - much like most of us would like for BBC news all the time
> Corbyn v Johnson will be more divisive and dangerous than a second referendum.<
++++
Johnson would win. and maybe quite easily. People dislike Boris, and think he;s unreliable, but they are actively scared of Corbyn.
I agree it would be horribly divisive. It might also be a good thing. We would be faced with a very serious choice between very different world-views. Time to decide.
And I have decided to go to bed. Night all. Happy voting. Or ballot spoiling.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight
> >
> >
> >
> > What are the Tories thinking....
> >
> > They’re not.
> >
> > They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories.
>
> Tough luck, Boris is coming and going to rally the Brexiteers back into battle.
>
> A Boris win in a general election would be delicious just for the look on diehard Remainers and Corbynites faces
I'm looking forward to that Labour majority
Better than Raab, though, I agree,
> I know we have had our run-ins, but I can only say I’m so sorry that this is happening to you and other sensible, pragmatic Tories who live in the real world. It’s no good for any of us that a major pillar of stability is now in a state of what looks like irredeemable collapse, taken over by liars, fools and charlatans. Politics is not a team sport.
>
> Thanks.
>
> The thing is, it wouldn't normally matter too much; the country would switch to a Labour government, which wouldn't be my choice but wouldn't be completely off the wall. But, when the choice is Corbyn, McDonnell and Seamus Milne, it's a different kettle of fish.
Yep
BXP 30%
LD 20% (+13)
Lab 16% (-9)
Con 12% (-12)
Green 8% (nc)
CHUK 5%
UKIP 4% (-23)
Others 5% (-3)
Turnout: 45%
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > > @Cyclefree said:
>
> >
>
> > > > @Cyclefree said:
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > > > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > > What are the Tories thinking....
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > > They’re not.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > > They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > I get your point but... Corbyn. Gulp.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > The hard Brexiteers are Corbyn’s useful idiots.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > They aren't as tomorrow's vote results will show when the Brexit Party trounce Corbyn Labour as much as they trounce May's Tories, the Tories need a leader to win back Brexit Party voters that is all
>
> >
>
> > Utterly deluded. Every step the Tories are taking is making a Labour victory at the GE more and more probable. And they’ve been doing it for three years now.
>
>
>
> Utter rubbish and Labour complacency will make a Boris victory even more delicious as the Coalition's victory was in Australia at the weekend over a complacent Labor expecting to waltz to victory on a 'progressive wave'.
>
>
>
> Boris as he has shown umpteen times connects with and speaks to skilled working class and lower middle class voters and with Lynton Crosby he will build a coalition to victory based on them
>
> “Umpteen times” = twice, the last time in 2012.
And still the only Tory candidate to do so, Boris was also pivotal in attracting the broad Leave vote which won the EU referendum
> I> @Cyclefree said:
>
>
>
> >
>
> > Utterly deluded. Every step the Tories are taking is making a Labour victory at the GE more and more probable. And they’ve been doing it for three years now.<
>
>
>
> +++++
>
>
>
> It has clearly escaped your attention that the Labour party is also in freefall, in the polls, it's just not - yet - quite as dramatic as the Tories' descent.
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1130119899773382657
>
>
>
>
>
> There is no guarantee at all that Corbyn will win the next GE. In fact I'd say it is still rather unlikely, whatever happens to Brexit. Corbyn's personal polling is calamitous and he will now be facing a new Tory leader, probably with a honeymoon (however shortlived, and it will be short).
>
> I’d like both Labour and Tories to lose. I’d certainly like Corbyn gone. If he could go at ghe same time as May, hooray! But of the two I’d judge Labour to be more resilient: they can get rid of their leader. They have something to say, much of it attractive, on a range of topics.
>
> Changing the Tories leader won’t help. They are split. There is no guarantee they will get Brexit voters back. They will own the consequences of whatever Brexit they manage to get (if they get it) and if it’s bad it will not help them. They have nothing to say on anything other than Brexit. They have forgotten how to argue for what they claim to believe in. The tide is turning against the sort of free market ideology they have espoused and they have nothing to say on the issues of today let alone tomorrow.
>
> So yes I think the Tories are being incredibly complacent.
They aren't, if they were they would be keeping May
> 1) We will only get No Deal by definition with a Tory election victory as the current Commons will always block it
>
>
>
> 2) The 'sane' wing as you call it of diehard Remainers are going as extinct in the Tories as Blairites in Labour and can be ignored, it is reuniting the Leave coalition that will take the Tories to victory
>
>
>
> 3) As the polling shows over half the Brexit Party vote returns to the Tories under a Boris leadership, the fanatics will never be appeased other than under a Steve Baker or Francois leadership but the Tories can still win without them as long as they get mainstream Leavers back
>
> The 'diehard Remainers' almost entirely comprise people like me, and approximately two-thirds of Tory MPs, who fully accepted the result of the referendum and have consistently argued for its implementation - including the implementation of the smooth transition promised by every single Brexiteer. Ditch sanity if you wish, but don't be surprised if you find that support for 'no deal' collapses within days of people discovering what no deal actually means.
>
> As for the polling - ha ha. Farage, together with his little helpers like Rees Mogg, Francois and Baker, will soon lambast Boris, or any other leader who actually tries to do anything sensible, as a traitor. These, after all, include people who once were so keen on Theresa May that one of them said that a statue of Theresa May should be erected to commemorate the "Brexit Queen". Do you seriously think they won't turn on the next leader?
>
> https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/a-brexiteer-has-just-appealed-for-a-statue-for-brexit-queen-theresa-may-1-5501735
They may do but Boris has the charisma, the intelligence, the presence and the gaul and the confidence to outwit them
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > >
> > > > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > What are the Tories thinking....
> > >
> > > They’re not.
> > >
> > > They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories.
> >
> > Tough luck, Boris is coming and going to rally the Brexiteers back into battle.
> >
> > A Boris win in a general election would be delicious just for the look on diehard Remainers and Corbynites faces
>
> I'm looking forward to that Labour majority
Will make your loss all the more enjoyable then
And still the only Tory candidate to do so, Boris was also pivotal in attracting the broad Leave vote which won the EU referendum
+++++++++++++
Citation, please
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > >
> > > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > > > Johnny Mercer says he will backs on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > > What are the Tories thinking....
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > > They’re not.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > &
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > A Boris win in a general election would be delicious just for the look on diehard Remainers and Corbynites faces
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Ah yes the brave Boris who stood last time and then ran away.
> > >
> > > > The Boris who rallied so many to him his majority reduced at the last election.
> > >
> > > > The Boris whose time at the Foreign Office resulted in most of his counterparts in other countries considering him an offensive joke and in a British citizen having her sentence confirmed rather than released because he couldn’t learn his brief properly.
> > >
> > > > The Boris who could not even stick to a script over the Skripal affair.
> > >
> > > > That brilliant Boris.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Honestly, there is therapy for the sorts of delusions the Tory party is suffering from.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > The Boris who twice won Labour London as Mayor, the Boris who was pivotal to Leave winning won the London Mayoralty, that the world was different then and Boris was saying the complete opposite of what he is saying now.
> > >
> > > Still, it’s nice to know that you think the Tory party should be like people as repellent as Salvini and Bolsonaro and Putin and Trump and Netanyahu. Shame on such a Tory party.
> >
> > It is a myth to say Boris was some sort of liberal progressive when he won London, he was never as extreme as those above maybe but he won by promising tough action on crime etc and by winning bluecollar and lower middle class suburban voters, Livingstone beat Boris comfortably in both 2008 and 2012 in inner London amongst the 'progressive' vote
>
> Also, and I know this might sound revolutionary, but Boris got credit from voters because he was - whisper it - at least perceived to be actually carrying out what he said he would do, whether that be banning alcohol on the Tube, introducing the Boris bus, etc etc. He tended to make quite limited commitments, but then deliver on them once elected.
Yes, Boris is seen as being an action man whether deserved or not, unfairly or not May isn't
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > I know we have had our run-ins, but I can only say I’m so sorry that this is happening to you and other sensible, pragmatic Tories who live in the real world. It’s no good for any of us that a major pillar of stability is now in a state of what looks like irredeemable collapse, taken over by liars, fools and charlatans. Politics is not a team sport.
> >
> > Thanks.
> >
> > The thing is, it wouldn't normally matter too much; the country would switch to a Labour government, which wouldn't be my choice but wouldn't be completely off the wall. But, when the choice is Corbyn, McDonnell and Seamus Milne, it's a different kettle of fish.
>
> Yep
A patrician, ex Remainer Tory like Hunt would be defeated by Corbyn in the electorate's current mood, to win the Tories need someone like Boris who can beat Corbyn at his own game and can play the populist card too
>
> “Umpteen times” = twice, the last time in 2012.
What's the last time Boris lost an electoral event?
Won Uxbridge in 2017
Won referendum in 2016
Won Uxbridge in 2015
Won London in 2012
Won London in 2008
Won Henley 2005
Won Henley 2001
I'm red on Boris next PM, bigly, but should I be?
>
> A patrician, ex Remainer Tory like Hunt would be defeated by Corbyn in the electorate's current mood, to win the Tories need someone like Boris who can beat Corbyn at his own game and can play the populist card too
The two parties you're talking about are about to get thumped in a national election. What makes you so sure it will be between them?
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> >
> > “Umpteen times” = twice, the last time in 2012.
>
> What's the last time Boris lost an electoral event?
>
> Won Uxbridge in 2017
> Won referendum in 2016
> Won Uxbridge in 2015
> Won London in 2012
> Won London in 2008
> Won Henley 2005
> Won Henley 2001
>
> I'm red on Boris next PM, bigly, but should I be?
(To be fair, winning Hendon doesn't really demonstrate any ability to connect with working class voters.)
But hey I may be wrong. You’re the Tory loyalist. I view the Tories now like something unpleasant the cat’s dragged in.
All I want is to avoid a No Deal departure and a Corbyn government. I don’t much care how we get there. If electing Nicola Sturgeon PM would do it, I’d vote for her.
Good night.
> > 3. Even if the first two problems weren't insoluble, how on earth would Boris, or anyone else for that matter, outbid Nigel Farage who would be crying 'Betrayal!' whatever the government did?
>
> Boris could invite Nigel onto the UK's negotiating team! Nigel said today that if the Brexit Party wins big he would like Brexit MEPs to be invited in to 'help' with the negotiations...
Assuming the EU side had agreed to these negotiations in the first place, the BXP guys would dutifully show up for a bunch of meetings, then once an unpopular compromise showed up they'd walk out and denounce the weakness and incompetence of their Tory colleagues.
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > I know we have had our run-ins, but I can only say I’m so sorry that this is happening to you and other sensible, pragmatic Tories who live in the real world. It’s no good for any of us that a major pillar of stability is now in a state of what looks like irredeemable collapse, taken over by liars, fools and charlatans. Politics is not a team sport.
> >
> > Thanks.
> >
> > The thing is, it wouldn't normally matter too much; the country would switch to a Labour government, which wouldn't be my choice but wouldn't be completely off the wall. But, when the choice is Corbyn, McDonnell and Seamus Milne, it's a different kettle of fish.
>
> Yep
I'd happily sacrifice the Tory party of it took Labour down with it.
> @HYUFD said:
> And still the only Tory candidate to do so, Boris was also pivotal in attracting the broad Leave vote which won the EU referendum
>
> +++++++++++++
>
> Citation, please
Boris was de facto leader of the Leave campaign
Henley: that bastion of skilled working class voters. Winning there 14 years ago proves what, exactly, about his vote winning abilities now?
He won London - on a very different platform to now - and the last time in 2012.
His majority was reduced in Uxbridge in 2017.
He was one of the people on the Leave campaign and then ran away from the leadership fight.
This claim that he has proved umpteen times how good he is at winning votes all over the country is, frankly, bullshit. It has a little merit but nowhere near as much as his supporters like to claim.
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > A patrician, ex Remainer Tory like Hunt would be defeated by Corbyn in the electorate's current mood, to win the Tories need someone like Boris who can beat Corbyn at his own game and can play the populist card too
>
> The two parties you're talking about are about to get thumped in a national election. What makes you so sure it will be between them?
Well it is not impossible it could be between the Brexit Party and LDs if the Tories picked Hunt or Gove to replace May and Corbyn stayed Labour leader I agree
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > I> @Cyclefree said:
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> > > Utterly deluded. Every step the Tories are taking is making a Labour victory at the GE more and more probable. And they’ve been doing it for three years now.<
>
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> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1130119899773382657
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> > There is no guarantee at all that Corbyn will win the next GE. In fact I'd say it is still rather unlikely, whatever happens to Brexit. Corbyn's personal polling is calamitous and he will now be facing a new Tory leader, probably with a honeymoon (however shortlived, and it will be short).
>
> >
>
> > I’d like both Labour and Tories to lose. I’d certainly like Corbyn gone. If he could go at ghe same time as May, hooray! But of the two I’d judge Labour to be more resilient: they can get rid of their leader. They have something to say, much of it attractive, on a range of topics.
>
> >
>
> > Changing the Tories leader won’t help. They are split. There is no guarantee they will get Brexit voters back. They will own the consequences of whatever Brexit they manage to get (if they get it) and if it’s bad it will not help them. They have nothing to say on anything other than Brexit. They have forgotten how to argue for what they claim to believe in. The tide is turning against the sort of free market ideology they have espoused and they have nothing to say on the issues of today let alone tomorrow.
>
> >
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> > So yes I think the Tories are being incredibly complacent.
>
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> They aren't, if they were they would be keeping May
>
> They’re in panic mode, are not thinking straight - or at all - and hope that this one change will be all that’s needed. Panic and complacency is quite a common combination in organisations in crises, invariably caused by a lack of clear thinking.
>
> But hey I may be wrong. You’re the Tory loyalist. I view the Tories now like something unpleasant the cat’s dragged in.
>
> All I want is to avoid a No Deal departure and a Corbyn government. I don’t much care how we get there. If electing Nicola Sturgeon PM would do it, I’d vote for her.
>
> Good night.
The best way to do that ironically is to get the WA passed and then elect Boris as the new Tory leader
> twitter.com/Shortbloke/status/1131305250235789312?s=20
Shall I put you down as a maybe?
Corbyn's former economics adviser calls him a 'pro-Brexit buffoon'
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeremy-corbyns-former-business-adviser-calls-him-a-pro-brexit-buffoon-110252989.html
> If the Lib Dems CHUK and Greens get more votes than Brexit and UKIP the cries for a second referendum would be deafening.
>
>
And the other way around?
> https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1131339215294197761
So, the two Presidents with the lowest levels of opposition (Carter and Bush Sr) did not get reelected. While the two with the highest (Clinton and Obama) did.
Personally, I'd like Trump to get reelected so that he's on the hook for fallout from his reckless expansion of the government deficit (which has the side effect of worsening the trade deficit).
> https://twitter.com/Shortbloke/status/1131305250235789312?s=20
LMAO