> You don't have to be a political genius to predict what's going to happen on Sunday night: Brexiteers will claim the result as a great victory because they'll win the most votes, while Remainers will also claim victory because the majority of people will have voted for parties supporting Remain.
>
> The second part of that is not a given if, IF, recent polls are correct
I think it's very likely if you include Labour in the pro-Remain total, although it's not clear this is the right thing to do for the whole of the Labour share since probably 20% or 30% of Labour voters are still pro-Brexit.
Oh right yeah, I wouldn’t include Labour, they have a lifelong Brexiteer as leader.
Ridiculously, this is where I will be when the results come in... hope there’s enough WiFi for me to post!
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > It's horrible that May is visibly upset. However, I really believe she will feel way better when the next phase of her life has begun. I know that people will look back on this time with respect for her character and I hope she remains in public life in a responsible and respected position.<
++++
Yes, she deserves a quiet and honourable retirement. She did her best, at a very difficult time, and her best wasn't good enough. There is no shame in that.
If as I suspect the polls are over estimating turnout that could throw up a surprise or two.
It's all about the turnout. And as polling is utterly dreadful at estimating turnout we know about as much as Jon Snow*
Imagine if it is 60% turnout. What possible poll could accurately model that? No poll, that's who. It's why I've taken the 8/1 on Brexit party 20-30%. Almost ceratinly a loser but a good value one. I'm considering taking the over 40% as well.
> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > > The inaugural Euro elections in 1979 saw the Tories on 48% of the vote, winning 60 of 81 seats. > > > > > > http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/05/20/putting-thursday-into-context-a-look-back-at-previous-uk-euro-elections/ > > > > They of course used FPTP back then! I never understand whether Blair had to change to PR or he choose to do it. Given he is pro-European it was a pretty big own goal if he choose to do it as Farage would never had the success he has had under PR. A FPTP seat could of been circa 500,000 electors. Impossible for a candidate to get a significant personal vote outside one of the main established political parties in my view. The LD and the Greens both got punished by FPTP in European elections. I could not envisage Farage being punished any less by FPTP! > > The European Parliamentary Elections Act 1999 (c.1) is an Act of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. The Act amended the procedures on European elections in the United Kingdom. It received Royal Assent on 14 January 1999, after the Parliament Acts 1911 and 1949 had been invoked, as the House of Lords had rejected the bill six times, refusing to accept the change in the electoral system proposed. The Parliament Acts are rarely invoked, the European Parliamentary Elections Act was only the fifth statute since 1911 enacted under their provisions, and only the second since the Parliament Act 1949.[2] > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliamentary_Elections_Act_1999
Thanks.
Seems Blair caused an own goal on that one then! That's the problem with constitutional issues, they replace one can of worms with an equally unpalatable alternative set of problems!
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > You don't have to be a political genius to predict what's going to happen on Sunday night: Brexiteers will claim the result as a great victory because they'll win the most votes, while Remainers will also claim victory because the majority of people will have voted for parties supporting Remain. > > > > > > The second part of that is not a given if, IF, recent polls are correct > > > > I think it's very likely if you include Labour in the pro-Remain total, although it's not clear this is the right thing to do for the whole of the Labour share since probably 20% or 30% of Labour voters are still pro-Brexit. > > Oh right yeah, I wouldn’t include Labour, they have a lifelong Brexiteer as leader. > > Ridiculously, this is where I will be when the results come in... hope there’s enough WiFi for me to post! > > https://www.wearefstvl.com/
I visited Upminster for the first time a few weeks ago when I was having a go at the famous Tube Challenge where you try to visit all 270 stations in the shortest possible time. (It went wrong in the evening due to delays on the District Line).
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Mrs May has to stay in 10 Downing Street for another 7 days to overtake Gordon Brown. > > Jeeez - does she really think that matters????
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @Wulfrun_Phil said: > > > Even with house effects clearly distorting the picture, a pattern is clear - the polls with the most recent fieldwork have the highest Brexit shares and the lowest Labour shares. > > > > > > Nah, I think that's all house effects. Take a look at the YouGov and ComRes polls throughout the campaign and you will see that the house effect is massively larger than any trend over time - though I do think there is a small trend in TBP favour.
You do realise that the pattern when looking at the series for individual pollsters is exactly as I described?
Labour share (YouGov) 24/22/22/22/21/16/15/15/13 Labour share (ComRes) 33/26/25/25/23/22
Yes, house effects distort things but there is nonetheless a clear and consistent trend. Brexit has become significantly stronger over time, and Labour significantly weaker, and the YouGov series suggests that that has continued into the start of this week.
So "final" polls that commenced sampling 9 and 8 days ago are not going to pick up that trend in full.
Jacob Rees-Mogg on Peston confirms he will back Boris in a leadership contest to succeed May and praises the Brexit Party's 'brilliant candidates' including his own sister and praises Farage as 'a remarkable politician' and says the Tories must wake up to that or face Canada 1993 style destruction
> @Benpointer said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1131313560037068800 > > > > > > > > > > So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension > > > > > > There won’t be any veto. You don’t understand how the EU likes to work. > > > > I understand exactly how the French like to work, they vetoed our original entry in the first place and Macron will complete the circle started by De Gaulle by kicking us out if need be if we cannot make up our minds > > Wasn't that what you predicted in April before Macron... er, fell into line?
Indeed. The EU has a massive interest - and desire - to keep us in, every single member of it. Including the French, regardless of what games Macron likes to play in a bid to boost his domestic approval ratings. This talk of a veto is nonsense.
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > I wonder who grassed up the LedByDonkeys Greenpeace lot. So far they have been very very careful not to expose who they really are.
Guido in his article said the electoral commission is releasing details of who they are.
> @Byronic said: > > @Luckyguy1983 said: > > It's horrible that May is visibly upset. However, I really believe she will feel way better when the next phase of her life has begun. I know that people will look back on this time with respect for her character and I hope she remains in public life in a responsible and respected position.< > > ++++ > > Yes, she deserves a quiet and honourable retirement. She did her best, at a very difficult time, and her best wasn't good enough. There is no shame in that. > > But, she needs to RETIRE.
I suspect she may enjoy some Julia Gillard style schadenfreude if the next general election as is likely is Boris v Corbyn much as Gillard did with Abbott v Rudd as both did not last too long
> > You don't have to be a political genius to predict what's going to happen on Sunday night: Brexiteers will claim the result as a great victory because they'll win the most votes, while Remainers will also claim victory because the majority of people will have voted for parties supporting Remain.
>
> >
>
> > The second part of that is not a given if, IF, recent polls are correct
>
>
>
> I think it's very likely if you include Labour in the pro-Remain total, although it's not clear this is the right thing to do for the whole of the Labour share since probably 20% or 30% of Labour voters are still pro-Brexit.
>
> Oh right yeah, I wouldn’t include Labour, they have a lifelong Brexiteer as leader.
>
> Ridiculously, this is where I will be when the results come in... hope there’s enough WiFi for me to post!
I visited Upminster for the first time a few weeks ago when I was having a go at the famous Tube Challenge where you try to visit all 270 stations in the shortest possible time. (It went wrong in the evening due to delays on the District Line).
Oh I haven’t tried that! Have you seen this fellows vids? I always love the fact that the actual Upminster Bridge is so nondescript
> @IanB2 said: > > @The_Taxman said: > > > @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > > The inaugural Euro elections in 1979 saw the Tories on 48% of the vote, winning 60 of 81 seats. > > > > > > http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/05/20/putting-thursday-into-context-a-look-back-at-previous-uk-euro-elections/ > > > > They of course used FPTP back then! I never understand whether Blair had to change to PR or he choose to do it. Given he is pro-European it was a pretty big own goal if he choose to do it as Farage would never had the success he has had under PR. A FPTP seat could of been circa 500,000 electors. Impossible for a candidate to get a significant personal vote outside one of the main established political parties in my view. The LD and the Greens both got punished by FPTP in European elections. I could not envisage Farage being punished any less by FPTP! > > It became a requirement of the EU to use one of a range of broadly proportional systems. The EU wasn’t happy at the distorted delegation the UK sent during the Thatcher years, the latter of course having resisted any move from FPTnP > > Edit/ we could - and should - use STV, like Northern Ireland. People blame the EU for the closed list system, but it was actually a UK choice.
Thanks for that, I could not remember the detail of it.
> @Wulfrun_Phil said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > @Wulfrun_Phil said: > > > > > Even with house effects clearly distorting the picture, a pattern is clear - the polls with the most recent fieldwork have the highest Brexit shares and the lowest Labour shares. > > > > > > > > > > Nah, I think that's all house effects. Take a look at the YouGov and ComRes polls throughout the campaign and you will see that the house effect is massively larger than any trend over time - though I do think there is a small trend in TBP favour. > > You do realise that the pattern when looking at the series for individual pollsters is exactly as I described? > > Brexit share (YouGov) 15/27/23/28/30/34/35/34/37 > Brexit share (ComRes) 17/28/27/27/31/32 > > Labour share (YouGov) 24/22/22/22/21/16/15/15/13 > Labour share (ComRes) 33/26/25/25/23/22 > > Yes, house effects distort things but there is nonetheless a clear and consistent trend. Brexit has become significantly stronger over time, and Labour significantly weaker, and the YouGov series suggests that that has continued into the start of this week. > > So "final" polls that commenced sampling 9 and 8 days ago are not going to pick up that trend in full.
> @Benpointer said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1131313560037068800 > > > > > > > > > > So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension > > > > > > There won’t be any veto. You don’t understand how the EU likes to work. > > > > I understand exactly how the French like to work, they vetoed our original entry in the first place and Macron will complete the circle started by De Gaulle by kicking us out if need be if we cannot make up our minds > > Wasn't that what you predicted in April before Macron... er, fell into line?
He didn't, the EU wanted extension to next year, Macron forced it to end in October, as Macron said tonight 'the French president also warned that the 31 October Brexit deadline should not be extended out of respect for the British vote to leave the EU and to prevent Brexit “polluting” the bloc. Mr Macron also told Belgium’s Le Soir newspaper that the EU had to beware the threat of far right and nationalist parties, who are expected to make gains in the European elections this week. “In the case of Brexit, you just have to know at some point whether it stops or not. If we have the logic of the weakness of saying that it scares us...'
> > It's horrible that May is visibly upset. However, I really believe she will feel way better when the next phase of her life has begun. I know that people will look back on this time with respect for her character and I hope she remains in public life in a responsible and respected position.<
>
> ++++
>
> Yes, she deserves a quiet and honourable retirement. She did her best, at a very difficult time, and her best wasn't good enough. There is no shame in that.
>
> But, she needs to RETIRE.
I suspect she may enjoy some Julia Gillard style schadenfreude if the next general election as is likely is Boris v Corbyn much as Gillard did with Abbott v Rudd as both did not last too long
I would like her future career to be glittering enough to annoy George Osborne.
> @Paristonda said: > My gut tells me Brexit party is being overstated, tories maybe slightly understated (a proportion of previously loyal voters may chicken out of brexit party in the polling booth), Lib dems overstated and labour understated (by some pollsters). Think labour at around 20% seems likely. People like myself are fed up with labour (I voted for them in 2017 but am very much hoping they come third tomorrow with a bloody nose from the lib dems) but it's nothing like the existential crisis going on in the tories.<
++++
Confession: I was toying with the idea of voting BXP.... JUST to hurry along the retirement of Ms T May.
(Full disclosure: I have also been seriously toying with the idea of voting Green, Tory, or spoiling my ballot (the last would be a first))
I don't want a BXP government, heaven forbid, but we are in such a terrible mess now, we need a new prime minister with no baggage of "red lines": maybe a Brexiteer can guide us to a soft, relatively danger-free Brexit, something May as a Remainer trying to be over zealous, never could.
So maybe I will vote Tory after all. How many other centre right voters like me feel the same?
There might be a last minute Tory bounce. And BXP will come off the boil. I doubt it will change the fundamentals: BXP are gonna win, Lab and Tories will fall back badly. Libs and Greens will prosper.
> @KentRising said: > > @Benpointer said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1131313560037068800 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension > > > > > > > > > > There won’t be any veto. You don’t understand how the EU likes to work. > > > > > > > > I understand exactly how the French like to work, they vetoed our original entry in the first place and Macron will complete the circle started by De Gaulle by kicking us out if need be if we cannot make up our minds > > > > Wasn't that what you predicted in April before Macron... er, fell into line? > > Indeed. The EU has a massive interest - and desire - to keep us in, every single member of it. Including the French, regardless of what games Macron likes to play in a bid to boost his domestic approval ratings. This talk of a veto is nonsense.
It is not nonsense and it is time people like you snapped out of your complacency, if the WA fails again it is either revoke or No Deal and potential chaos either way
> @AndyJS said: > You don't have to be a political genius to predict what's going to happen on Sunday night: Brexiteers will claim the result as a great victory because they'll win the most votes, while Remainers will also claim victory because the majority of people will have voted for parties supporting Remain.
Any Lib Dem can't claim that. According to their election literature, the Conservatives and Labour are supporters of Leave. And that is also as it appears on Wikipedia.
> @AndyJS said: > Quitting on Friday after the election but before the votes have been counted seems like the most ridiculous time to go IMO. What if the Tories do much better than expected on Sunday night?
What you mean soar to 13%? The Tories could double what the polls say and still have their worst result ever.
> @Foxy said: > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast. > > 33% Turnout > > 31% BXP > 21% LD > 14% Con > 12% Lab > 10% Green > 4% CHUK > 4% UKIP > 4% Other > >
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > I'm not concerned by either shortage. It would be us stopping those things coming in. Worst case scenario we let the lorries in without filling in the right forms.
As a former exporter from the UK, not having documentation on all your imports is actually a BFD, because of the need to fill in tortuous Rules of Origin paperwork when you export things.
It would, of course, all get sorted in time. But I do believe it would be a painful six to nine months. And for people who lose their jobs and houses, well, they won't easily forget.
> @Paristonda said: > My gut tells me Brexit party is being overstated, tories maybe slightly understated (a proportion of previously loyal voters may chicken out of brexit party in the polling booth), Lib dems overstated and labour understated (by some pollsters). Think labour at around 20% seems likely. People like myself are fed up with labour (I voted for them in 2017 but am very much hoping they come third tomorrow with a bloody nose from the lib dems) but it's nothing like the existential crisis going on in the tories.
On the whole I would agree. The higher the turnout the better for BXP & LD I would guess.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > Tom Newton Dunn on Newsnight: 17 serious candidates for the Tory leadership. > > And how many frivolous ones, apart from Boris?
> > Indeed. The EU has a massive interest - and desire - to keep us in, every single member of it. Including the French, regardless of what games Macron likes to play in a bid to boost his domestic approval ratings. This talk of a veto is nonsense.<
++++
I don't think it is a nonsense, not any more. Yes the EU has a MASSIVE vested interest in keeping Britain in, and nullifying Brexit, but with the surge in populist parties they also have an even MASSIVER < checks Oxford Dictionary, relaxes > interest in purging the euro body politic of the ultimate populism: Brexit.
A discontented, roiled, mutinous Britain trapped inside the EU would cause endless damage and strife.
I think Macron would indeed veto in October if we asked for yet more time. And I suspect he might have a few allies. And it only takes one vote to kick us out.
> @HYUFD said: > > @KentRising said: > > > @Benpointer said: > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1131313560037068800 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension > > > > > > > > > > > > > > There won’t be any veto. You don’t understand how the EU likes to work. > > > > > > > > > > > > I understand exactly how the French like to work, they vetoed our original entry in the first place and Macron will complete the circle started by De Gaulle by kicking us out if need be if we cannot make up our minds > > > > > > Wasn't that what you predicted in April before Macron... er, fell into line? > > > > Indeed. The EU has a massive interest - and desire - to keep us in, every single member of it. Including the French, regardless of what games Macron likes to play in a bid to boost his domestic approval ratings. This talk of a veto is nonsense. > > It is not nonsense and it is time people like you snapped out of your complacency, if the WA fails again it is either revoke or No Deal and potential chaos either way
We'll I'd happy with No Deal, so I'm not complacent, more cynical.
> @Foxy said: > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast. > > 33% Turnout > > 31% BXP > 21% LD > 14% Con > 12% Lab > 10% Green > 4% CHUK > 4% UKIP > 4% Other > >
If Lab fall behind the Cons the knives will be out for Corbyn never mind May that would be an absolutely disastrous result for Labour and their lowest voteshare since 1910
> @Drutt said: > I'm in the SW and it's fairly difficult to see past a result of BXPx3, LD, CON, GRN on recent polling. > > LAB would have to outperform their polling trend by 5 or more pp to take the third BXP. > > No seat for Andrew Adonis, who is 2nd on the LAB slate. Hey ho.
> It's horrible that May is visibly upset. However, I really believe she will feel way better when the next phase of her life has begun. I know that people will look back on this time with respect for her character and I hope she remains in public life in a responsible and respected position.<
++++
Yes, she deserves a quiet and honourable retirement. She did her best, at a very difficult time, and her best wasn't good enough. There is no shame in that.
But, she needs to RETIRE.
Yes, she does. Her successor will likely make an even bigger balls up of it and she can enjoy some quiet schadenfreude.
The end of May is more brutal and miserable than the end of any PM I can recall.
Indeed so. One has to feel sympathy for her on a personal level, admiration for her resilience, and acknowledgement that on the big picture she has been right.
But... it has to be said that she has made the end more brutal and miserable than it needed to be. She has had numerous opportunities to retire from the fray on her own terms and with honour. Immediately after the 2017 election and in December 2018 were the most obvious ones.
> @Foxy said: > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast. > > 33% Turnout > > 31% BXP > 21% LD > 14% Con > 12% Lab > 10% Green > 4% CHUK > 4% UKIP > 4% Other > >
> @Byronic said: > > @Paristonda said: > > My gut tells me Brexit party is being overstated, tories maybe slightly understated (a proportion of previously loyal voters may chicken out of brexit party in the polling booth), Lib dems overstated and labour understated (by some pollsters). Think labour at around 20% seems likely. People like myself are fed up with labour (I voted for them in 2017 but am very much hoping they come third tomorrow with a bloody nose from the lib dems) but it's nothing like the existential crisis going on in the tories.< > > ++++ > > Confession: I was toying with the idea of voting BXP.... JUST to hurry along the retirement of Ms T May. > > (Full disclosure: I have also been seriously toying with the idea of voting Green, Tory, or spoiling my ballot (the last would be a first)) > > I don't want a BXP government, heaven forbid, but we are in such a terrible mess now, we need a new prime minister with no baggage of "red lines": maybe a Brexiteer can guide us to a soft, relatively danger-free Brexit, something May as a Remainer trying to be over zealous, never could. > > So maybe I will vote Tory after all. How many other centre right voters like me feel the same? > > There might be a last minute Tory bounce. And BXP will come off the boil. I doubt it will change the fundamentals: BXP are gonna win, Lab and Tories will fall back badly. Libs and Greens will prosper. > >
Tories need to be sent a real message - I think they will get it.
> @HYUFD said: > > @KentRising said: > > > @Benpointer said: > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1131313560037068800 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension > > > > > > > > > > > > > > There won’t be any veto. You don’t understand how the EU likes to work. > > > > > > > > > > > > I understand exactly how the French like to work, they vetoed our original entry in the first place and Macron will complete the circle started by De Gaulle by kicking us out if need be if we cannot make up our minds > > > > > > Wasn't that what you predicted in April before Macron... er, fell into line? > > > > Indeed. The EU has a massive interest - and desire - to keep us in, every single member of it. Including the French, regardless of what games Macron likes to play in a bid to boost his domestic approval ratings. This talk of a veto is nonsense. > > It is not nonsense and it is time people like you snapped out of your complacency, if the WA fails again it is either revoke or No Deal and potential chaos either way
That there’ll be a French veto is nonsense. That there may not be a further extension possibly less nonsense, although one will be forthcoming if it looks like things are heading towards a Remain outcome (or, of course, if a majority for revoke starts to emerge).
The question is how long (how short might be more appropriate) a honeymoon the new PM gets, and how this interplays with the Brexit timetable.
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > > @HYUFD said: > > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight > > What are the Tories thinking.... They want a Brexiteer leader who can beat Corbyn
> @Drutt said: > I'm in the SW and it's fairly difficult to see past a result of BXPx3, LD, CON, GRN on recent polling. > > LAB would have to outperform their polling trend by 5 or more pp to take the third BXP. > > No seat for Andrew Adonis, who is 2nd on the LAB slate. Hey ho.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > The end of May is more brutal and miserable than the end of any PM I can recall. > > Indeed so. One has to feel sympathy for her on a personal level, admiration for her resilience, and acknowledgement that on the big picture she has been right. > > But... it has to be said that she has made the end more brutal and miserable than it needed to be. She has had numerous opportunities to retire from the fray on her own terms and with honour. Immediately after the 2017 election and in December 2018 were the most obvious ones.
She has made serious errors. She lost me when she turned to brinkmanship. But she did not deserve this. Her own side treat her so very badly.
> @Foxy said: > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast. > > 33% Turnout > > 31% BXP > 21% LD > 14% Con > 12% Lab > 10% Green > 4% CHUK > 4% UKIP > 4% Other > >
That's a bold call. If Lab come fourth, I reckon it will be behind the Greens. But I would have them third. Turnout that low plays into their hands too. Regular, habitual voters.
> @Floater said: > > @Foxy said: > > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast. > > > > 33% Turnout > > > > 31% BXP > > 21% LD > > 14% Con > > 12% Lab > > 10% Green > > 4% CHUK > > 4% UKIP > > 4% Other > > > > > > That's a joke right? > > Labour below tories? > > Can't see it.
Yes, I can see it is not obvious, but that is where my East Midlands anecdata leads.
I see a low turnout election, but there are a fair number of unhappy Tory loyalists who either back May or the deal. I think few Lab voters will turnout, but those voting tactically will do so, and most will go LD.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Foxy said: > > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast. > > > > 33% Turnout > > > > 31% BXP > > 21% LD > > 14% Con > > 12% Lab > > 10% Green > > 4% CHUK > > 4% UKIP > > 4% Other > > > > > > If Lab fall behind the Cons the knives will be out for Corbyn never mind May that would be an absolutely disastrous result for Labour and their lowest voteshare since 1910
> @IanB2 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @KentRising said: > > > > @Benpointer said: > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1131313560037068800 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > There won’t be any veto. You don’t understand how the EU likes to work. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I understand exactly how the French like to work, they vetoed our original entry in the first place and Macron will complete the circle started by De Gaulle by kicking us out if need be if we cannot make up our minds > > > > > > > > Wasn't that what you predicted in April before Macron... er, fell into line? > > > > > > Indeed. The EU has a massive interest - and desire - to keep us in, every single member of it. Including the French, regardless of what games Macron likes to play in a bid to boost his domestic approval ratings. This talk of a veto is nonsense. > > > > It is not nonsense and it is time people like you snapped out of your complacency, if the WA fails again it is either revoke or No Deal and potential chaos either way > > That there’ll be a French veto is nonsense. That there may not be a further extension possibly less nonsense, although one will be forthcoming if it looks like things are heading towards a Remain outcome (or, of course, if a majority for revoke starts to emerge). > > The question is how long (how short might be more appropriate) a honeymoon the new PM gets, and how this interplays with the Brexit timetable.
Boris will try and renegotiate with the EU and remove the backstop, if the EU refuse he will call a snap general election in October to get a mandate for a hard Brexit
> > You don't have to be a political genius to predict what's going to happen on Sunday night: Brexiteers will claim the result as a great victory because they'll win the most votes, while Remainers will also claim victory because the majority of people will have voted for parties supporting Remain.
>
> >
>
> > The second part of that is not a given if, IF, recent polls are correct
>
>
>
> I think it's very likely if you include Labour in the pro-Remain total, although it's not clear this is the right thing to do for the whole of the Labour share since probably 20% or 30% of Labour voters are still pro-Brexit.
>
> Oh right yeah, I wouldn’t include Labour, they have a lifelong Brexiteer as leader.
>
> Ridiculously, this is where I will be when the results come in... hope there’s enough WiFi for me to post!
I visited Upminster for the first time a few weeks ago when I was having a go at the famous Tube Challenge where you try to visit all 270 stations in the shortest possible time. (It went wrong in the evening due to delays on the District Line).
The Tube Challenge is for slackers - there are 679 stations currently in the London Oyster Card system - I just need Cuffley, Bayford and Hertford North, and the soon-to-open Meridian Water
> Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight
What are the Tories thinking....
They’re not.
They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories.
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > It's horrible that May is visibly upset. However, I really believe she will feel way better when the next phase of her life has begun. I know that people will look back on this time with respect for her character and I hope she remains in public life in a responsible and respected position.
Nice post.
She is clearly out of her depth and she needs to step away for her own good and for the good of the Country.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight > > > > What are the Tories thinking.... > > They’re not. > > They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories.
> @HYUFD said: > Wes Streeting on Peston confirms he will vote for May's Deal if she adds a confirmatory referendum, could she go Ramsay MacMay or Robert Peel for a place in history and ditch most of her party?
> @HYUFD said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @KentRising said: > > > > > @Benpointer said: > > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1131313560037068800 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > There won’t be any veto. You don’t understand how the EU likes to work. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I understand exactly how the French like to work, they vetoed our original entry in the first place and Macron will complete the circle started by De Gaulle by kicking us out if need be if we cannot make up our minds > > > > > > > > > > Wasn't that what you predicted in April before Macron... er, fell into line? > > > > > > > > Indeed. The EU has a massive interest - and desire - to keep us in, every single member of it. Including the French, regardless of what games Macron likes to play in a bid to boost his domestic approval ratings. This talk of a veto is nonsense. > > > > > > It is not nonsense and it is time people like you snapped out of your complacency, if the WA fails again it is either revoke or No Deal and potential chaos either way > > > > That there’ll be a French veto is nonsense. That there may not be a further extension possibly less nonsense, although one will be forthcoming if it looks like things are heading towards a Remain outcome (or, of course, if a majority for revoke starts to emerge). > > > > The question is how long (how short might be more appropriate) a honeymoon the new PM gets, and how this interplays with the Brexit timetable. > > Boris will try and renegotiate with the EU and remove the backstop, if the EU refuse he will call a snap general election in October to get a mandate for a hard Brexit
How will Boris take his Remain and Soft Brexit MPs with him into an election on a Hard Brexit commitment? He could even lose his own seat on that commitment, conceivably.
> After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast.
>
> 33% Turnout
>
> 31% BXP
> 21% LD
> 14% Con
> 12% Lab
> 10% Green
> 4% CHUK
> 4% UKIP
> 4% Other
>
>
If Lab fall behind the Cons the knives will be out for Corbyn never mind May that would be an absolutely disastrous result for Labour and their lowest voteshare since 1910
If Corbyn leaves and is replaced by someone sensible ie not a Marxist or an anti-semite and people like Milne and Murray kicked out, I would seriously consider them. The Tories will not be fit for polite society for a long time. The Brexit Party are unspeakable.
The Lib Dems are my preference but it depends on who their next leader is.
> @Foxy said: > > @Floater said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast. > > > > > > 33% Turnout > > > > > > 31% BXP > > > 21% LD > > > 14% Con > > > 12% Lab > > > 10% Green > > > 4% CHUK > > > 4% UKIP > > > 4% Other > > > > > > > > > > That's a joke right? > > > > Labour below tories? > > > > Can't see it. > > Yes, I can see it is not obvious, but that is where my East Midlands anecdata leads. > > I see a low turnout election, but there are a fair number of unhappy Tory loyalists who either back May or the deal. I think few Lab voters will turnout, but those voting tactically will do so, and most will go LD. > > Any one else keen to forecast?
I'm not brave enough - other than to say it will be a terriiiiible night for the tories.
It would be a jaw dropping result if you are right.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight > > > > What are the Tories thinking.... > > They’re not. > > They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories.
Tough luck, Boris is coming and going to rally the Brexiteers back into battle.
A Boris win in a general election would be delicious just for the look on diehard Remainers and Corbynites faces
> @IanB2 said: > LibDem endorsements over the last few days: Katy Brand, Emma Kennedy, Susan Penhaligon, Bamber Gascoigne, Greg Dyke, Simon Callow, Gus O’Donnell, Lord Cashman, George Osborne, Baron Cooper, Lord Heseltine, Heidi Allen (outside London & SE)
> @Jonathan said: > > @isam said: > > Mercer looks like he wants to hit Grieve > > > > Hope there are no milk shakes on set > > Grieve ripped him apart.
Mercer is rubbish. Because he's young and used to be in the army - fair play - we were all meant to get excited by him, but there's nothing between the ears.
> > How will Boris take his Remain and Soft Brexit MPs with him into an election on a Hard Brexit commitment? He could even lose his own seat on that commitment, conceivably. <
+++++
Yes, quite. Boris is many objectionable things, but he is not stupid. He is a lot smarter than T May, also.
He won't box himself into Hard Brexit. My guess is he will try to use his alleged charisma - which he still believes in - to sell a very Soft Brexit to the people.
It might work, it probably won't; given the contenders, he is likely the Tories' best bet. We are in difficult times.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > Tories need to be sent a real message - I think they will get it. > > > Whether they listen or not is open to doubt.... > > Listen and do what, exactly, given the parliamentary numbers?
This is the worst tory government in my lifetime in my opinion.
> @Byronic said: > > @Foxy said: > > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast. > > > > 33% Turnout > > > > 31% BXP > > 21% LD > > 14% Con > > 12% Lab > > 10% Green > > 4% CHUK > > 4% UKIP > > 4% Other > > > > < > > ++++ > > After a walk in the park, where I talked to no one, and had no insights, my forecast: > > Turnout: 39% > > BXP: 32% > Lab: 19% > Con: 15% > LD: 15% > Green: 9% > CUK: 3% > UKIP: 2% > SNP & PC: 5% > > I haven't added them up so please don't harangue me if they add up to 109%. > >
Foxy, Byronic, are those national forecasts or regional? I assume national but if regional, where?
> If Corbyn leaves and is replaced by someone sensible ie not a Marxist or an anti-semite and people like Milne and Murray kicked out, I would seriously consider them. The Tories will not be fit for polite society for a long time. The Brexit Party are unspeakable. > > The Lib Dems are my preference but it depends on who their next leader is.
The Change UK Party were supposedly the sensible Labour alternative...however that's not going so well.
I fear though the public don't want a sensible centre left / centre right government. It seems like they want the apple cart overturned.
> > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight
>
>
>
> What are the Tories thinking....
>
> They’re not.
>
> They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories.
> @KentRising said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @KentRising said: > > > > > > @Benpointer said: > > > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1131313560037068800 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > There won’t be any veto. You don’t understand how the EU likes to work. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I understand exactly how the French like to work, they vetoed our original entry in the first place and Macron will complete the circle started by De Gaulle by kicking us out if need be if we cannot make up our minds > > > > > > > > > > > > Wasn't that what you predicted in April before Macron... er, fell into line? > > > > > > > > > > Indeed. The EU has a massive interest - and desire - to keep us in, every single member of it. Including the French, regardless of what games Macron likes to play in a bid to boost his domestic approval ratings. This talk of a veto is nonsense. > > > > > > > > It is not nonsense and it is time people like you snapped out of your complacency, if the WA fails again it is either revoke or No Deal and potential chaos either way > > > > > > That there’ll be a French veto is nonsense. That there may not be a further extension possibly less nonsense, although one will be forthcoming if it looks like things are heading towards a Remain outcome (or, of course, if a majority for revoke starts to emerge). > > > > > > The question is how long (how short might be more appropriate) a honeymoon the new PM gets, and how this interplays with the Brexit timetable. > > > > Boris will try and renegotiate with the EU and remove the backstop, if the EU refuse he will call a snap general election in October to get a mandate for a hard Brexit > > How will Boris take his Remain and Soft Brexit MPs with him into an election on a Hard Brexit commitment? He could even lose his own seat on that commitment, conceivably.
They are irrelevant now, the vast majority of Tory members and Tory 2017 voters (most of whom who vote tomorrow will vote Brexit Party) now want hard Brexit, if Remain and soft Brexit MPs want to sod off to CUK or the LDs fine, don't let the door slam on the way out!
Boris' seat of Uxbridge is in Hillingdon which voted 56% Leave, one of the highest Leave votes in London and above the national average Leave vote, he will hold it
> @Byronic said: > > @Foxy said: > > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast. > > > > 33% Turnout > > > > 31% BXP > > 21% LD > > 14% Con > > 12% Lab > > 10% Green > > 4% CHUK > > 4% UKIP > > 4% Other > > > > < > > ++++ > > After a walk in the park, where I talked to no one, and had no insights, my forecast: > > Turnout: 39% > > BXP: 32% > Lab: 19% > Con: 15% > LD: 15% > Green: 9% > CUK: 3% > UKIP: 2% > SNP & PC: 5% > > I haven't added them up so please don't harangue me if they add up to 109%. > >
Byronic very close to my prediction.
BXP 33% Lab 18.6% Con 15% LD 14% Green 9% UKIP 3% Cut 3% Other 4.4%
> @Drutt said: > > @Byronic said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast. > > > > > > 33% Turnout > > > > > > 31% BXP > > > 21% LD > > > 14% Con > > > 12% Lab > > > 10% Green > > > 4% CHUK > > > 4% UKIP > > > 4% Other > > > > > > < > > > > ++++ > > > > After a walk in the park, where I talked to no one, and had no insights, my forecast: > > > > Turnout: 39% > > > > BXP: 32% > > Lab: 19% > > Con: 15% > > LD: 15% > > Green: 9% > > CUK: 3% > > UKIP: 2% > > SNP & PC: 5% > > > > I haven't added them up so please don't harangue me if they add up to 109%. > > > > > > Foxy, Byronic, are those national forecasts or regional? I assume national but if regional, where?
> @Wulfrun_Phil said: > There is a pattern in those polls. > > Average date of sampling fieldwork in reverse chronological order, followed by Brexit and Labour shares. > > Most recent fieldwork: > BMG (1 day ago, Brexit 35%, Lab 18%) > You Gov (2 days ago, Brexit 37%, Lab 13%) > Opinium (3.5 days, Brexit 38%, Lab 17%) > > Older fieldwork: > Panelbase (4.5 days, Brexit 30%, Lab 25%) > Kantar (4.5 days, Brexit 27%, Lab 24%) > Survation (5 days, Brexit 30%, Lab 24%) > Com Res (7 days, Brexit 32%, Lab 22%) > > Even with house effects clearly distorting the picture, a pattern is clear - the polls with the most recent fieldwork have the highest Brexit shares and the lowest Labour shares. > >
I think you need to show changes for each pollster to draw that conclusion, otherwise it might simply be "house effects".
SCOTLAND: 14.3% or above mathematically guarantees an MEP 6.6% or less mathematically guarantees no MEP
Now, add in the following assumptions: 2 Independents, UKIP and CHUK will all fail to return an MEP They will poll between them at least 5.5%, but not more than 12%
Now, with these assumptions more than 13.5% guarantees an MEP less than 8% or less guarantees no MEP
As SNP scale up.to multiple seats, each seat means another party (likely Lab, Con or Green) will be excluded from the seat count.
Let's assume each excluded party carries at least 5.25% vote share, which is now wasted.
Adding this assumption: more than 27% guarantees 2 MEPs 38.3% or more guarantees 3 MEPs more than 48% guarantees 4 MEPs
A mid point can be assessed by assuming that the competitive parties all average half the quota worth of excess votes, except that the party returning the final MEP, by definition, does not exceed quota
We'll fix the minor party vote here at a little over 8.6%
On this: 10.75% of the vote returns each MEP as a mid point assumption Because this mid point already includes wasted votes, it scales linearly. 32.25% is a mid point for returning 3 MEPs 43% is mid point for returning 4 MEPs.
@KentRising said: Indeed. The EU has a massive interest - and desire - to keep us in, every single member of it. Including the French, regardless of what games Macron likes to play in a bid to boost his domestic approval ratings. This talk of a veto is nonsense.
+++++++++++
The other thing to remember is that Macron would be under enormous pressure from other EU leaders to grant the extension.
(And I suspect that there would be a conference call between the European leaders and the chair would simply say "I think we're all agreed to grant an extension" without ever asking if anyone planned to veto.)
> @nico67 said: > I’m past caring who the Tories get in as leader . > > The country is fucked beyond belief. <
+++++
It really isn't though, is it?
I went for a walk in my local park a few hours ago. The sun was shining. Some people ate sandwiches. Others just sunbathed.
Dogs cantered. Clouds moved. Schoolgirls giggled at schoolboys.
Marks and Spencers had some nice apple juice, reduced in price. My local west London pub was quite noisy around 7pm (it has a large beer garden), then it quietened down. The gym was busy, ish.
One of the few consoling things in this hideous Brexit melodrama is how the rest of ordinary British life (and the British economy, thank God) has largely continued as if nothing has happened.
> @Byronic said: > > @KentRising said: > > > > > How will Boris take his Remain and Soft Brexit MPs with him into an election on a Hard Brexit commitment? He could even lose his own seat on that commitment, conceivably. < > > +++++ > > Yes, quite. Boris is many objectionable things, but he is not stupid. He is a lot smarter than T May, also. > > He won't box himself into Hard Brexit. My guess is he will try to use his alleged charisma - which he still believes in - to sell a very Soft Brexit to the people. > > It might work, it probably won't; given the contenders, he is likely the Tories' best bet. We are in difficult times. > >
It would be amusing to see what the ERG gang would do in that situation.
> If the LibDems get less than the 17% they got at the local elections it will be a humiliation.
Lol. So, say, 16% would be a humiliation? Where do people dredge up this sort of guff?
What I would say, to be anecdotal, is that Lib Dem workers on the ground report something unprecedented is happening and they're not referring to the BP.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight > > > > > > > > > > > > What are the Tories thinking.... > > > > > > They’re not. > > > > > > They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories. > > > > I get your point but... Corbyn. Gulp. > > The hard Brexiteers are Corbyn’s useful idiots.
They aren't as tomorrow's vote results will show when the Brexit Party trounce Corbyn Labour as much as they trounce May's Tories, the Tories need a leader to win back Brexit Party voters that is all
my prediction. Tonight, Corbyn goes round to Garages house to have a fight and accidentally falls into a vat of brexit coloured paint. Tomorrow all the smurfs hail the return of their king and vote Labour MEPs to victory.
Comments
Ridiculously, this is where I will be when the results come in... hope there’s enough WiFi for me to post!
https://www.wearefstvl.com/
> Mrs May has to stay in 10 Downing Street for another 7 days to overtake Gordon Brown.
Jeeez - does she really think that matters????
> It's horrible that May is visibly upset. However, I really believe she will feel way better when the next phase of her life has begun. I know that people will look back on this time with respect for her character and I hope she remains in public life in a responsible and respected position.<
++++
Yes, she deserves a quiet and honourable retirement. She did her best, at a very difficult time, and her best wasn't good enough. There is no shame in that.
But, she needs to RETIRE.
Imagine if it is 60% turnout. What possible poll could accurately model that? No poll, that's who. It's why I've taken the 8/1 on Brexit party 20-30%. Almost ceratinly a loser but a good value one. I'm considering taking the over 40% as well.
*Which is nothing, spoiler alert.
> > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
>
> > The inaugural Euro elections in 1979 saw the Tories on 48% of the vote, winning 60 of 81 seats.
>
> >
>
> > http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/05/20/putting-thursday-into-context-a-look-back-at-previous-uk-euro-elections/
>
>
>
> They of course used FPTP back then! I never understand whether Blair had to change to PR or he choose to do it. Given he is pro-European it was a pretty big own goal if he choose to do it as Farage would never had the success he has had under PR. A FPTP seat could of been circa 500,000 electors. Impossible for a candidate to get a significant personal vote outside one of the main established political parties in my view. The LD and the Greens both got punished by FPTP in European elections. I could not envisage Farage being punished any less by FPTP!
>
> The European Parliamentary Elections Act 1999 (c.1) is an Act of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. The Act amended the procedures on European elections in the United Kingdom. It received Royal Assent on 14 January 1999, after the Parliament Acts 1911 and 1949 had been invoked, as the House of Lords had rejected the bill six times, refusing to accept the change in the electoral system proposed. The Parliament Acts are rarely invoked, the European Parliamentary Elections Act was only the fifth statute since 1911 enacted under their provisions, and only the second since the Parliament Act 1949.[2]
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliamentary_Elections_Act_1999
Thanks.
Seems Blair caused an own goal on that one then! That's the problem with constitutional issues, they replace one can of worms with an equally unpalatable alternative set of problems!
> Here's another bydonkeys classic - Cheaper housing for hard pressed Londoners !
>
> https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1131274141032747008
Have they been infiltrated by TBP supporters?
> > @isam said:
>
> > You don't have to be a political genius to predict what's going to happen on Sunday night: Brexiteers will claim the result as a great victory because they'll win the most votes, while Remainers will also claim victory because the majority of people will have voted for parties supporting Remain.
>
> >
>
> > The second part of that is not a given if, IF, recent polls are correct
>
>
>
> I think it's very likely if you include Labour in the pro-Remain total, although it's not clear this is the right thing to do for the whole of the Labour share since probably 20% or 30% of Labour voters are still pro-Brexit.
>
> Oh right yeah, I wouldn’t include Labour, they have a lifelong Brexiteer as leader.
>
> Ridiculously, this is where I will be when the results come in... hope there’s enough WiFi for me to post!
>
> https://www.wearefstvl.com/
I visited Upminster for the first time a few weeks ago when I was having a go at the famous Tube Challenge where you try to visit all 270 stations in the shortest possible time. (It went wrong in the evening due to delays on the District Line).
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Mrs May has to stay in 10 Downing Street for another 7 days to overtake Gordon Brown.
>
> Jeeez - does she really think that matters????
It was a tongue in cheek comment.
> > @Wulfrun_Phil said:
>
> > Even with house effects clearly distorting the picture, a pattern is clear - the polls with the most recent fieldwork have the highest Brexit shares and the lowest Labour shares.
> >
> >
>
> Nah, I think that's all house effects. Take a look at the YouGov and ComRes polls throughout the campaign and you will see that the house effect is massively larger than any trend over time - though I do think there is a small trend in TBP favour.
You do realise that the pattern when looking at the series for individual pollsters is exactly as I described?
Brexit share (YouGov) 15/27/23/28/30/34/35/34/37
Brexit share (ComRes) 17/28/27/27/31/32
Labour share (YouGov) 24/22/22/22/21/16/15/15/13
Labour share (ComRes) 33/26/25/25/23/22
Yes, house effects distort things but there is nonetheless a clear and consistent trend. Brexit has become significantly stronger over time, and Labour significantly weaker, and the YouGov series suggests that that has continued into the start of this week.
So "final" polls that commenced sampling 9 and 8 days ago are not going to pick up that trend in full.
> > @IanB2 said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > > @Scott_P said:
>
> > > > https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1131313560037068800
>
>
>
> > >
>
> > > So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension
>
> >
>
> > There won’t be any veto. You don’t understand how the EU likes to work.
>
>
>
> I understand exactly how the French like to work, they vetoed our original entry in the first place and Macron will complete the circle started by De Gaulle by kicking us out if need be if we cannot make up our minds
>
> Wasn't that what you predicted in April before Macron... er, fell into line?
Indeed. The EU has a massive interest - and desire - to keep us in, every single member of it. Including the French, regardless of what games Macron likes to play in a bid to boost his domestic approval ratings. This talk of a veto is nonsense.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > Here's another bydonkeys classic - Cheaper housing for hard pressed Londoners !
> >
> > https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1131274141032747008
>
> Have they been infiltrated by TBP supporters?
Easy to see how Remain lost in 2016. Clueless.
> I wonder who grassed up the LedByDonkeys Greenpeace lot. So far they have been very very careful not to expose who they really are.
Guido in his article said the electoral commission is releasing details of who they are.
> > @Luckyguy1983 said:
> > It's horrible that May is visibly upset. However, I really believe she will feel way better when the next phase of her life has begun. I know that people will look back on this time with respect for her character and I hope she remains in public life in a responsible and respected position.<
>
> ++++
>
> Yes, she deserves a quiet and honourable retirement. She did her best, at a very difficult time, and her best wasn't good enough. There is no shame in that.
>
> But, she needs to RETIRE.
I suspect she may enjoy some Julia Gillard style schadenfreude if the next general election as is likely is Boris v Corbyn much as Gillard did with Abbott v Rudd as both did not last too long
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21LVdnStd_4
LAB would have to outperform their polling trend by 5 or more pp to take the third BXP.
No seat for Andrew Adonis, who is 2nd on the LAB slate. Hey ho.
> > @The_Taxman said:
> > > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> > > The inaugural Euro elections in 1979 saw the Tories on 48% of the vote, winning 60 of 81 seats.
> > >
> > > http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/05/20/putting-thursday-into-context-a-look-back-at-previous-uk-euro-elections/
> >
> > They of course used FPTP back then! I never understand whether Blair had to change to PR or he choose to do it. Given he is pro-European it was a pretty big own goal if he choose to do it as Farage would never had the success he has had under PR. A FPTP seat could of been circa 500,000 electors. Impossible for a candidate to get a significant personal vote outside one of the main established political parties in my view. The LD and the Greens both got punished by FPTP in European elections. I could not envisage Farage being punished any less by FPTP!
>
> It became a requirement of the EU to use one of a range of broadly proportional systems. The EU wasn’t happy at the distorted delegation the UK sent during the Thatcher years, the latter of course having resisted any move from FPTnP
>
> Edit/ we could - and should - use STV, like Northern Ireland. People blame the EU for the closed list system, but it was actually a UK choice.
Thanks for that, I could not remember the detail of it.
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > @Wulfrun_Phil said:
> >
> > > Even with house effects clearly distorting the picture, a pattern is clear - the polls with the most recent fieldwork have the highest Brexit shares and the lowest Labour shares.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > Nah, I think that's all house effects. Take a look at the YouGov and ComRes polls throughout the campaign and you will see that the house effect is massively larger than any trend over time - though I do think there is a small trend in TBP favour.
>
> You do realise that the pattern when looking at the series for individual pollsters is exactly as I described?
>
> Brexit share (YouGov) 15/27/23/28/30/34/35/34/37
> Brexit share (ComRes) 17/28/27/27/31/32
>
> Labour share (YouGov) 24/22/22/22/21/16/15/15/13
> Labour share (ComRes) 33/26/25/25/23/22
>
> Yes, house effects distort things but there is nonetheless a clear and consistent trend. Brexit has become significantly stronger over time, and Labour significantly weaker, and the YouGov series suggests that that has continued into the start of this week.
>
> So "final" polls that commenced sampling 9 and 8 days ago are not going to pick up that trend in full.
Those there are two trends, not one.
> > @IanB2 said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > > @Scott_P said:
>
> > > > https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1131313560037068800
>
>
>
> > >
>
> > > So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension
>
> >
>
> > There won’t be any veto. You don’t understand how the EU likes to work.
>
>
>
> I understand exactly how the French like to work, they vetoed our original entry in the first place and Macron will complete the circle started by De Gaulle by kicking us out if need be if we cannot make up our minds
>
> Wasn't that what you predicted in April before Macron... er, fell into line?
He didn't, the EU wanted extension to next year, Macron forced it to end in October, as Macron said tonight 'the French president also warned that the 31 October Brexit deadline should not be extended out of respect for the British vote to leave the EU and to prevent Brexit “polluting” the bloc.
Mr Macron also told Belgium’s Le Soir newspaper that the EU had to beware the threat of far right and nationalist parties, who are expected to make gains in the European elections this week.
“In the case of Brexit, you just have to know at some point whether it stops or not. If we have the logic of the weakness of saying that it scares us...'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/22/macron-backs-barnier-european-commission-president-rules-brexit/
> My gut tells me Brexit party is being overstated, tories maybe slightly understated (a proportion of previously loyal voters may chicken out of brexit party in the polling booth), Lib dems overstated and labour understated (by some pollsters). Think labour at around 20% seems likely. People like myself are fed up with labour (I voted for them in 2017 but am very much hoping they come third tomorrow with a bloody nose from the lib dems) but it's nothing like the existential crisis going on in the tories.<
++++
Confession: I was toying with the idea of voting BXP.... JUST to hurry along the retirement of Ms T May.
(Full disclosure: I have also been seriously toying with the idea of voting Green, Tory, or spoiling my ballot (the last would be a first))
I don't want a BXP government, heaven forbid, but we are in such a terrible mess now, we need a new prime minister with no baggage of "red lines": maybe a Brexiteer can guide us to a soft, relatively danger-free Brexit, something May as a Remainer trying to be over zealous, never could.
So maybe I will vote Tory after all. How many other centre right voters like me feel the same?
There might be a last minute Tory bounce. And BXP will come off the boil. I doubt it will change the fundamentals: BXP are gonna win, Lab and Tories will fall back badly. Libs and Greens will prosper.
> > @Benpointer said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> >
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > > > > @Scott_P said:
> >
> > > > > https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1131313560037068800
> >
> >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension
> >
> > >
> >
> > > There won’t be any veto. You don’t understand how the EU likes to work.
> >
> >
> >
> > I understand exactly how the French like to work, they vetoed our original entry in the first place and Macron will complete the circle started by De Gaulle by kicking us out if need be if we cannot make up our minds
> >
> > Wasn't that what you predicted in April before Macron... er, fell into line?
>
> Indeed. The EU has a massive interest - and desire - to keep us in, every single member of it. Including the French, regardless of what games Macron likes to play in a bid to boost his domestic approval ratings. This talk of a veto is nonsense.
It is not nonsense and it is time people like you snapped out of your complacency, if the WA fails again it is either revoke or No Deal and potential chaos either way
> You don't have to be a political genius to predict what's going to happen on Sunday night: Brexiteers will claim the result as a great victory because they'll win the most votes, while Remainers will also claim victory because the majority of people will have voted for parties supporting Remain.
Any Lib Dem can't claim that. According to their election literature, the Conservatives and Labour are supporters of Leave. And that is also as it appears on Wikipedia.
> Quitting on Friday after the election but before the votes have been counted seems like the most ridiculous time to go IMO. What if the Tories do much better than expected on Sunday night?
What you mean soar to 13%? The Tories could double what the polls say and still have their worst result ever.
> Grieve implying he'd leave the Tories by saying he'd do "what was necessary" to stop a no-deal Brexit on Peston.
I thought Grieve had already left. It's hard to keep up.
33% Turnout
31% BXP
21% LD
14% Con
12% Lab
10% Green
4% CHUK
4% UKIP
4% Other
> Grieve implying he'd leave the Tories by saying he'd do "what was necessary" to stop a no-deal Brexit on Peston.
He said he would stay Conservative but 'what was necessary' could include trying to force revoke of Article 50 if needed
> After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast.
>
> 33% Turnout
>
> 31% BXP
> 21% LD
> 14% Con
> 12% Lab
> 10% Green
> 4% CHUK
> 4% UKIP
> 4% Other
>
>
SNP and PC could be pushing 6%
> @Luckyguy1983 said:
> I'm not concerned by either shortage. It would be us stopping those things coming in. Worst case scenario we let the lorries in without filling in the right forms.
As a former exporter from the UK, not having documentation on all your imports is actually a BFD, because of the need to fill in tortuous Rules of Origin paperwork when you export things.
It would, of course, all get sorted in time. But I do believe it would be a painful six to nine months. And for people who lose their jobs and houses, well, they won't easily forget.
> My gut tells me Brexit party is being overstated, tories maybe slightly understated (a proportion of previously loyal voters may chicken out of brexit party in the polling booth), Lib dems overstated and labour understated (by some pollsters). Think labour at around 20% seems likely. People like myself are fed up with labour (I voted for them in 2017 but am very much hoping they come third tomorrow with a bloody nose from the lib dems) but it's nothing like the existential crisis going on in the tories.
On the whole I would agree. The higher the turnout the better for BXP & LD I would guess.
> Tom Newton Dunn on Newsnight: 17 serious candidates for the Tory leadership.
>
> And how many frivolous ones, apart from Boris?
Private francois hopefully
>
> Indeed. The EU has a massive interest - and desire - to keep us in, every single member of it. Including the French, regardless of what games Macron likes to play in a bid to boost his domestic approval ratings. This talk of a veto is nonsense.<
++++
I don't think it is a nonsense, not any more. Yes the EU has a MASSIVE vested interest in keeping Britain in, and nullifying Brexit, but with the surge in populist parties they also have an even MASSIVER < checks Oxford Dictionary, relaxes > interest in purging the euro body politic of the ultimate populism: Brexit.
A discontented, roiled, mutinous Britain trapped inside the EU would cause endless damage and strife.
I think Macron would indeed veto in October if we asked for yet more time. And I suspect he might have a few allies. And it only takes one vote to kick us out.
> > @KentRising said:
> > > @Benpointer said:
> > > > @IanB2 said:
> > >
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > >
> > > > > > @Scott_P said:
> > >
> > > > > > https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1131313560037068800
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > > > So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > There won’t be any veto. You don’t understand how the EU likes to work.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I understand exactly how the French like to work, they vetoed our original entry in the first place and Macron will complete the circle started by De Gaulle by kicking us out if need be if we cannot make up our minds
> > >
> > > Wasn't that what you predicted in April before Macron... er, fell into line?
> >
> > Indeed. The EU has a massive interest - and desire - to keep us in, every single member of it. Including the French, regardless of what games Macron likes to play in a bid to boost his domestic approval ratings. This talk of a veto is nonsense.
>
> It is not nonsense and it is time people like you snapped out of your complacency, if the WA fails again it is either revoke or No Deal and potential chaos either way
We'll I'd happy with No Deal, so I'm not complacent, more cynical.
> After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast.
>
> 33% Turnout
>
> 31% BXP
> 21% LD
> 14% Con
> 12% Lab
> 10% Green
> 4% CHUK
> 4% UKIP
> 4% Other
>
>
If Lab fall behind the Cons the knives will be out for Corbyn never mind May that would be an absolutely disastrous result for Labour and their lowest voteshare since 1910
> I'm in the SW and it's fairly difficult to see past a result of BXPx3, LD, CON, GRN on recent polling.
>
> LAB would have to outperform their polling trend by 5 or more pp to take the third BXP.
>
> No seat for Andrew Adonis, who is 2nd on the LAB slate. Hey ho.
Or Lab pips Con for their seat.
Big boost for camp Johnson
But... it has to be said that she has made the end more brutal and miserable than it needed to be. She has had numerous opportunities to retire from the fray on her own terms and with honour. Immediately after the 2017 election and in December 2018 were the most obvious ones.
> Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight
What are the Tories thinking....
> After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast.
>
> 33% Turnout
>
> 31% BXP
> 21% LD
> 14% Con
> 12% Lab
> 10% Green
> 4% CHUK
> 4% UKIP
> 4% Other
>
>
That's a joke right?
Labour below tories?
Can't see it.
> Tom Newton Dunn on Newsnight: 17 serious candidates for the Tory leadership.
Well that's 17 you can discount.
17 candidates. Few, if any, are serious - in achievement or competence, anyway. The only serious thing about most of them is the size of their ego.
> Johnny Mercer backs Boris Johnson. Dominic Grieve shakes his head.
Grieve should just make everyone happy and leave the Tory party. Enjoy some obscurity over at Change UK, where he belongs.
Mercer is vapid, mind.
> > @Paristonda said:
> > My gut tells me Brexit party is being overstated, tories maybe slightly understated (a proportion of previously loyal voters may chicken out of brexit party in the polling booth), Lib dems overstated and labour understated (by some pollsters). Think labour at around 20% seems likely. People like myself are fed up with labour (I voted for them in 2017 but am very much hoping they come third tomorrow with a bloody nose from the lib dems) but it's nothing like the existential crisis going on in the tories.<
>
> ++++
>
> Confession: I was toying with the idea of voting BXP.... JUST to hurry along the retirement of Ms T May.
>
> (Full disclosure: I have also been seriously toying with the idea of voting Green, Tory, or spoiling my ballot (the last would be a first))
>
> I don't want a BXP government, heaven forbid, but we are in such a terrible mess now, we need a new prime minister with no baggage of "red lines": maybe a Brexiteer can guide us to a soft, relatively danger-free Brexit, something May as a Remainer trying to be over zealous, never could.
>
> So maybe I will vote Tory after all. How many other centre right voters like me feel the same?
>
> There might be a last minute Tory bounce. And BXP will come off the boil. I doubt it will change the fundamentals: BXP are gonna win, Lab and Tories will fall back badly. Libs and Greens will prosper.
>
>
Tories need to be sent a real message - I think they will get it.
Whether they listen or not is open to doubt....
> > @KentRising said:
> > > @Benpointer said:
> > > > @IanB2 said:
> > >
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > >
> > > > > > @Scott_P said:
> > >
> > > > > > https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1131313560037068800
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > > > So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > There won’t be any veto. You don’t understand how the EU likes to work.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I understand exactly how the French like to work, they vetoed our original entry in the first place and Macron will complete the circle started by De Gaulle by kicking us out if need be if we cannot make up our minds
> > >
> > > Wasn't that what you predicted in April before Macron... er, fell into line?
> >
> > Indeed. The EU has a massive interest - and desire - to keep us in, every single member of it. Including the French, regardless of what games Macron likes to play in a bid to boost his domestic approval ratings. This talk of a veto is nonsense.
>
> It is not nonsense and it is time people like you snapped out of your complacency, if the WA fails again it is either revoke or No Deal and potential chaos either way
That there’ll be a French veto is nonsense. That there may not be a further extension possibly less nonsense, although one will be forthcoming if it looks like things are heading towards a Remain outcome (or, of course, if a majority for revoke starts to emerge).
The question is how long (how short might be more appropriate) a honeymoon the new PM gets, and how this interplays with the Brexit timetable.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight
>
> What are the Tories thinking....
They want a Brexiteer leader who can beat Corbyn
> After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast.
>
> 33% Turnout
>
> 31% BXP
> 21% LD
> 14% Con
> 12% Lab
> 10% Green
> 4% CHUK
> 4% UKIP
> 4% Other
>
> <
++++
After a walk in the park, where I talked to no one, and had no insights, my forecast:
Turnout: 39%
BXP: 32%
Lab: 19%
Con: 15%
LD: 15%
Green: 9%
CUK: 3%
UKIP: 2%
SNP & PC: 5%
I haven't added them up so please don't harangue me if they add up to 109%.
> I'm in the SW and it's fairly difficult to see past a result of BXPx3, LD, CON, GRN on recent polling.
>
> LAB would have to outperform their polling trend by 5 or more pp to take the third BXP.
>
> No seat for Andrew Adonis, who is 2nd on the LAB slate. Hey ho.
Oh dear, never mind.
> The end of May is more brutal and miserable than the end of any PM I can recall.
>
> Indeed so. One has to feel sympathy for her on a personal level, admiration for her resilience, and acknowledgement that on the big picture she has been right.
>
> But... it has to be said that she has made the end more brutal and miserable than it needed to be. She has had numerous opportunities to retire from the fray on her own terms and with honour. Immediately after the 2017 election and in December 2018 were the most obvious ones.
She has made serious errors. She lost me when she turned to brinkmanship. But she did not deserve this. Her own side treat her so very badly.
> After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast.
>
> 33% Turnout
>
> 31% BXP
> 21% LD
> 14% Con
> 12% Lab
> 10% Green
> 4% CHUK
> 4% UKIP
> 4% Other
>
>
That's a bold call. If Lab come fourth, I reckon it will be behind the Greens. But I would have them third.
Turnout that low plays into their hands too. Regular, habitual voters.
> > @Foxy said:
> > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast.
> >
> > 33% Turnout
> >
> > 31% BXP
> > 21% LD
> > 14% Con
> > 12% Lab
> > 10% Green
> > 4% CHUK
> > 4% UKIP
> > 4% Other
> >
> >
>
> That's a joke right?
>
> Labour below tories?
>
> Can't see it.
Yes, I can see it is not obvious, but that is where my East Midlands anecdata leads.
I see a low turnout election, but there are a fair number of unhappy Tory loyalists who either back May or the deal. I think few Lab voters will turnout, but those voting tactically will do so, and most will go LD.
Any one else keen to forecast?
> > @Foxy said:
> > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast.
> >
> > 33% Turnout
> >
> > 31% BXP
> > 21% LD
> > 14% Con
> > 12% Lab
> > 10% Green
> > 4% CHUK
> > 4% UKIP
> > 4% Other
> >
> >
>
> If Lab fall behind the Cons the knives will be out for Corbyn never mind May that would be an absolutely disastrous result for Labour and their lowest voteshare since 1910
Agreed. Can't see it myself though.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @KentRising said:
> > > > @Benpointer said:
> > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > >
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > >
> > > > > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > >
> > > > > > > https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1131313560037068800
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > > So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > There won’t be any veto. You don’t understand how the EU likes to work.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > I understand exactly how the French like to work, they vetoed our original entry in the first place and Macron will complete the circle started by De Gaulle by kicking us out if need be if we cannot make up our minds
> > > >
> > > > Wasn't that what you predicted in April before Macron... er, fell into line?
> > >
> > > Indeed. The EU has a massive interest - and desire - to keep us in, every single member of it. Including the French, regardless of what games Macron likes to play in a bid to boost his domestic approval ratings. This talk of a veto is nonsense.
> >
> > It is not nonsense and it is time people like you snapped out of your complacency, if the WA fails again it is either revoke or No Deal and potential chaos either way
>
> That there’ll be a French veto is nonsense. That there may not be a further extension possibly less nonsense, although one will be forthcoming if it looks like things are heading towards a Remain outcome (or, of course, if a majority for revoke starts to emerge).
>
> The question is how long (how short might be more appropriate) a honeymoon the new PM gets, and how this interplays with the Brexit timetable.
Boris will try and renegotiate with the EU and remove the backstop, if the EU refuse he will call a snap general election in October to get a mandate for a hard Brexit
They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories.
Hope there are no milk shakes on set
> Mercer looks like he wants to hit Grieve
>
> Hope there are no milk shakes on set
Grieve ripped him apart.
> It's horrible that May is visibly upset. However, I really believe she will feel way better when the next phase of her life has begun. I know that people will look back on this time with respect for her character and I hope she remains in public life in a responsible and respected position.
Nice post.
She is clearly out of her depth and she needs to step away for her own good and for the good of the Country.
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight
>
>
>
> What are the Tories thinking....
>
> They’re not.
>
> They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories.
I get your point but... Corbyn. Gulp.
> Wes Streeting on Peston confirms he will vote for May's Deal if she adds a confirmatory referendum, could she go Ramsay MacMay or Robert Peel for a place in history and ditch most of her party?
QTWTAIN
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @KentRising said:
> > > > > @Benpointer said:
> > > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > >
> > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > >
> > > > > > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > >
> > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1131313560037068800
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > > So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > There won’t be any veto. You don’t understand how the EU likes to work.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > I understand exactly how the French like to work, they vetoed our original entry in the first place and Macron will complete the circle started by De Gaulle by kicking us out if need be if we cannot make up our minds
> > > > >
> > > > > Wasn't that what you predicted in April before Macron... er, fell into line?
> > > >
> > > > Indeed. The EU has a massive interest - and desire - to keep us in, every single member of it. Including the French, regardless of what games Macron likes to play in a bid to boost his domestic approval ratings. This talk of a veto is nonsense.
> > >
> > > It is not nonsense and it is time people like you snapped out of your complacency, if the WA fails again it is either revoke or No Deal and potential chaos either way
> >
> > That there’ll be a French veto is nonsense. That there may not be a further extension possibly less nonsense, although one will be forthcoming if it looks like things are heading towards a Remain outcome (or, of course, if a majority for revoke starts to emerge).
> >
> > The question is how long (how short might be more appropriate) a honeymoon the new PM gets, and how this interplays with the Brexit timetable.
>
> Boris will try and renegotiate with the EU and remove the backstop, if the EU refuse he will call a snap general election in October to get a mandate for a hard Brexit
How will Boris take his Remain and Soft Brexit MPs with him into an election on a Hard Brexit commitment? He could even lose his own seat on that commitment, conceivably.
The Lib Dems are my preference but it depends on who their next leader is.
Turnout 44%
BXP 28.5%
LD 23.5%
LAB 14%
CON 11%
GRN 8%
UKIP 3%
CHUK 1%
OTHER 5%
> > @Floater said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast.
> > >
> > > 33% Turnout
> > >
> > > 31% BXP
> > > 21% LD
> > > 14% Con
> > > 12% Lab
> > > 10% Green
> > > 4% CHUK
> > > 4% UKIP
> > > 4% Other
> > >
> > >
> >
> > That's a joke right?
> >
> > Labour below tories?
> >
> > Can't see it.
>
> Yes, I can see it is not obvious, but that is where my East Midlands anecdata leads.
>
> I see a low turnout election, but there are a fair number of unhappy Tory loyalists who either back May or the deal. I think few Lab voters will turnout, but those voting tactically will do so, and most will go LD.
>
> Any one else keen to forecast?
I'm not brave enough - other than to say it will be a terriiiiible night for the tories.
It would be a jaw dropping result if you are right.
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight
>
>
>
> What are the Tories thinking....
>
> They’re not.
>
> They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories.
Tough luck, Boris is coming and going to rally the Brexiteers back into battle.
A Boris win in a general election would be delicious just for the look on diehard Remainers and Corbynites faces
> My forecast:
>
>
Nothing Has Changed
> LibDem endorsements over the last few days: Katy Brand, Emma Kennedy, Susan Penhaligon, Bamber Gascoigne, Greg Dyke, Simon Callow, Gus O’Donnell, Lord Cashman, George Osborne, Baron Cooper, Lord Heseltine, Heidi Allen (outside London & SE)
Very metropolitan.
Reminiscent of YEStoAV.
> > @isam said:
> > Mercer looks like he wants to hit Grieve
> >
> > Hope there are no milk shakes on set
>
> Grieve ripped him apart.
Mercer is rubbish. Because he's young and used to be in the army - fair play - we were all meant to get excited by him, but there's nothing between the ears.
>
> How will Boris take his Remain and Soft Brexit MPs with him into an election on a Hard Brexit commitment? He could even lose his own seat on that commitment, conceivably. <
+++++
Yes, quite. Boris is many objectionable things, but he is not stupid. He is a lot smarter than T May, also.
He won't box himself into Hard Brexit. My guess is he will try to use his alleged charisma - which he still believes in - to sell a very Soft Brexit to the people.
It might work, it probably won't; given the contenders, he is likely the Tories' best bet. We are in difficult times.
> Tories need to be sent a real message - I think they will get it.
>
>
> Whether they listen or not is open to doubt....
>
> Listen and do what, exactly, given the parliamentary numbers?
This is the worst tory government in my lifetime in my opinion.
This is a way to tell them that.
It's not just Brexit is it - they are awful
> > @Foxy said:
> > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast.
> >
> > 33% Turnout
> >
> > 31% BXP
> > 21% LD
> > 14% Con
> > 12% Lab
> > 10% Green
> > 4% CHUK
> > 4% UKIP
> > 4% Other
> >
> > <
>
> ++++
>
> After a walk in the park, where I talked to no one, and had no insights, my forecast:
>
> Turnout: 39%
>
> BXP: 32%
> Lab: 19%
> Con: 15%
> LD: 15%
> Green: 9%
> CUK: 3%
> UKIP: 2%
> SNP & PC: 5%
>
> I haven't added them up so please don't harangue me if they add up to 109%.
>
>
Foxy, Byronic, are those national forecasts or regional? I assume national but if regional, where?
> If Corbyn leaves and is replaced by someone sensible ie not a Marxist or an anti-semite and people like Milne and Murray kicked out, I would seriously consider them. The Tories will not be fit for polite society for a long time. The Brexit Party are unspeakable.
>
> The Lib Dems are my preference but it depends on who their next leader is.
The Change UK Party were supposedly the sensible Labour alternative...however that's not going so well.
I fear though the public don't want a sensible centre left / centre right government. It seems like they want the apple cart overturned.
The country is fucked beyond belief.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @KentRising said:
> > > > > > @Benpointer said:
> > > > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1131313560037068800
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > > So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension
> > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > There won’t be any veto. You don’t understand how the EU likes to work.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I understand exactly how the French like to work, they vetoed our original entry in the first place and Macron will complete the circle started by De Gaulle by kicking us out if need be if we cannot make up our minds
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Wasn't that what you predicted in April before Macron... er, fell into line?
> > > > >
> > > > > Indeed. The EU has a massive interest - and desire - to keep us in, every single member of it. Including the French, regardless of what games Macron likes to play in a bid to boost his domestic approval ratings. This talk of a veto is nonsense.
> > > >
> > > > It is not nonsense and it is time people like you snapped out of your complacency, if the WA fails again it is either revoke or No Deal and potential chaos either way
> > >
> > > That there’ll be a French veto is nonsense. That there may not be a further extension possibly less nonsense, although one will be forthcoming if it looks like things are heading towards a Remain outcome (or, of course, if a majority for revoke starts to emerge).
> > >
> > > The question is how long (how short might be more appropriate) a honeymoon the new PM gets, and how this interplays with the Brexit timetable.
> >
> > Boris will try and renegotiate with the EU and remove the backstop, if the EU refuse he will call a snap general election in October to get a mandate for a hard Brexit
>
> How will Boris take his Remain and Soft Brexit MPs with him into an election on a Hard Brexit commitment? He could even lose his own seat on that commitment, conceivably.
They are irrelevant now, the vast majority of Tory members and Tory 2017 voters (most of whom who vote tomorrow will vote Brexit Party) now want hard Brexit, if Remain and soft Brexit MPs want to sod off to CUK or the LDs fine, don't let the door slam on the way out!
Boris' seat of Uxbridge is in Hillingdon which voted 56% Leave, one of the highest Leave votes in London and above the national average Leave vote, he will hold it
> > @Foxy said:
> > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast.
> >
> > 33% Turnout
> >
> > 31% BXP
> > 21% LD
> > 14% Con
> > 12% Lab
> > 10% Green
> > 4% CHUK
> > 4% UKIP
> > 4% Other
> >
> > <
>
> ++++
>
> After a walk in the park, where I talked to no one, and had no insights, my forecast:
>
> Turnout: 39%
>
> BXP: 32%
> Lab: 19%
> Con: 15%
> LD: 15%
> Green: 9%
> CUK: 3%
> UKIP: 2%
> SNP & PC: 5%
>
> I haven't added them up so please don't harangue me if they add up to 109%.
>
>
Byronic very close to my prediction.
BXP 33%
Lab 18.6%
Con 15%
LD 14%
Green 9%
UKIP 3%
Cut 3%
Other 4.4%
> > @Byronic said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast.
> > >
> > > 33% Turnout
> > >
> > > 31% BXP
> > > 21% LD
> > > 14% Con
> > > 12% Lab
> > > 10% Green
> > > 4% CHUK
> > > 4% UKIP
> > > 4% Other
> > >
> > > <
> >
> > ++++
> >
> > After a walk in the park, where I talked to no one, and had no insights, my forecast:
> >
> > Turnout: 39%
> >
> > BXP: 32%
> > Lab: 19%
> > Con: 15%
> > LD: 15%
> > Green: 9%
> > CUK: 3%
> > UKIP: 2%
> > SNP & PC: 5%
> >
> > I haven't added them up so please don't harangue me if they add up to 109%.
> >
> >
>
> Foxy, Byronic, are those national forecasts or regional? I assume national but if regional, where?
Mine is GB ex NI.
> Tom Newton Dunn on Newsnight: 17 serious candidates for the Tory leadership.
I doubt they have 17 serious MPs.
> There is a pattern in those polls.
>
> Average date of sampling fieldwork in reverse chronological order, followed by Brexit and Labour shares.
>
> Most recent fieldwork:
> BMG (1 day ago, Brexit 35%, Lab 18%)
> You Gov (2 days ago, Brexit 37%, Lab 13%)
> Opinium (3.5 days, Brexit 38%, Lab 17%)
>
> Older fieldwork:
> Panelbase (4.5 days, Brexit 30%, Lab 25%)
> Kantar (4.5 days, Brexit 27%, Lab 24%)
> Survation (5 days, Brexit 30%, Lab 24%)
> Com Res (7 days, Brexit 32%, Lab 22%)
>
> Even with house effects clearly distorting the picture, a pattern is clear - the polls with the most recent fieldwork have the highest Brexit shares and the lowest Labour shares.
>
>
I think you need to show changes for each pollster to draw that conclusion, otherwise it might simply be "house effects".
My forecast:
Turnout 42%
BXP 28.5%
LD 23.5%
LAB 16%
CON 13%
GRN 9%
UKIP 3%
CHUK 2%
OTHER 5%
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1131303186210447360
>
> I would be surprised if the SNP don't get 3 MEPs and they have the chance of a fourth.
SCOTLAND:
14.3% or above mathematically guarantees an MEP
6.6% or less mathematically guarantees no MEP
Now, add in the following assumptions:
2 Independents, UKIP and CHUK will all fail to return an MEP
They will poll between them at least 5.5%, but not more than 12%
Now, with these assumptions
more than 13.5% guarantees an MEP
less than 8% or less guarantees no MEP
As SNP scale up.to multiple seats, each seat means another party (likely Lab, Con or Green) will be excluded from the seat count.
Let's assume each excluded party carries at least 5.25% vote share, which is now wasted.
Adding this assumption:
more than 27% guarantees 2 MEPs
38.3% or more guarantees 3 MEPs
more than 48% guarantees 4 MEPs
A mid point can be assessed by assuming that the competitive parties all average half the quota worth of excess votes, except that the party returning the final MEP, by definition, does not exceed quota
We'll fix the minor party vote here at a little over 8.6%
On this:
10.75% of the vote returns each MEP as a mid point assumption
Because this mid point already includes wasted votes, it scales linearly.
32.25% is a mid point for returning 3 MEPs
43% is mid point for returning 4 MEPs.
> > @Byronic said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast.
> > >
> > > 33% Turnout
> > >
> > > 31% BXP
> > > 21% LD
> > > 14% Con
> > > 12% Lab
> > > 10% Green
> > > 4% CHUK
> > > 4% UKIP
> > > 4% Other
> > >
> > > <
> >
> > ++++
> >
> > After a walk in the park, where I talked to no one, and had no insights, my forecast:
> >
> > Turnout: 39%
> >
> > BXP: 32%
> > Lab: 19%
> > Con: 15%
> > LD: 15%
> > Green: 9%
> > CUK: 3%
> > UKIP: 2%
> > SNP & PC: 5%
> >
> > I haven't added them up so please don't harangue me if they add up to 109%.
> >
> >
>
> Byronic very close to my prediction.
>
> BXP 33%
> Lab 18.6%
> Con 15%
> LD 14%
> Green 9%
> UKIP 3%
> Cut 3%
> Other 4.4%
If the LibDems get less than the 17% they got at the local elections it will be a humiliation.
Indeed. The EU has a massive interest - and desire - to keep us in, every single member of it. Including the French, regardless of what games Macron likes to play in a bid to boost his domestic approval ratings. This talk of a veto is nonsense.
+++++++++++
The other thing to remember is that Macron would be under enormous pressure from other EU leaders to grant the extension.
(And I suspect that there would be a conference call between the European leaders and the chair would simply say "I think we're all agreed to grant an extension" without ever asking if anyone planned to veto.)
> I’m past caring who the Tories get in as leader .
>
> The country is fucked beyond belief. <
+++++
It really isn't though, is it?
I went for a walk in my local park a few hours ago. The sun was shining. Some people ate sandwiches. Others just sunbathed.
Dogs cantered. Clouds moved. Schoolgirls giggled at schoolboys.
Marks and Spencers had some nice apple juice, reduced in price. My local west London pub was quite noisy around 7pm (it has a large beer garden), then it quietened down. The gym was busy, ish.
One of the few consoling things in this hideous Brexit melodrama is how the rest of ordinary British life (and the British economy, thank God) has largely continued as if nothing has happened.
> > @KentRising said:
>
> >
> > How will Boris take his Remain and Soft Brexit MPs with him into an election on a Hard Brexit commitment? He could even lose his own seat on that commitment, conceivably. <
>
> +++++
>
> Yes, quite. Boris is many objectionable things, but he is not stupid. He is a lot smarter than T May, also.
>
> He won't box himself into Hard Brexit. My guess is he will try to use his alleged charisma - which he still believes in - to sell a very Soft Brexit to the people.
>
> It might work, it probably won't; given the contenders, he is likely the Tories' best bet. We are in difficult times.
>
>
It would be amusing to see what the ERG gang would do in that situation.
> If the LibDems get less than the 17% they got at the local elections it will be a humiliation.
Lol. So, say, 16% would be a humiliation? Where do people dredge up this sort of guff?
What I would say, to be anecdotal, is that Lib Dem workers on the ground report something unprecedented is happening and they're not referring to the BP.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
>
> >
>
> > > Johnny Mercer says he will back Boris on Peston as next Tory leader, so Mogg and Mercer both endorsed Boris Johnson tonight
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > What are the Tories thinking....
>
> >
>
> > They’re not.
>
> >
>
> > They’re going through the sort of emotional spasm that needs extensive therapy and a period in seclusion. It’s not just Mrs May who needs to retire. So do the Tories.
>
>
>
> I get your point but... Corbyn. Gulp.
>
> The hard Brexiteers are Corbyn’s useful idiots.
They aren't as tomorrow's vote results will show when the Brexit Party trounce Corbyn Labour as much as they trounce May's Tories, the Tories need a leader to win back Brexit Party voters that is all
> Tom Newton Dunn on Newsnight: 17 serious candidates for the Tory leadership.
The Conservatives don't even have 17 serious MPs let alone 17 serious leadership candidates.
Tonight, Corbyn goes round to Garages house to have a fight and accidentally falls into a vat of brexit coloured paint.
Tomorrow all the smurfs hail the return of their king and vote Labour MEPs to victory.