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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final Euros polls show a picture that is far from clear

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  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > I> @Cyclefree said:
    > >
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    > >
    > > > Utterly deluded. Every step the Tories are taking is making a Labour victory at the GE more and more probable. And they’ve been doing it for three years now.<
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > +++++
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > It has clearly escaped your attention that the Labour party is also in freefall, in the polls, it's just not - yet - quite as dramatic as the Tories' descent.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1130119899773382657
    > >
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    > >
    > > There is no guarantee at all that Corbyn will win the next GE. In fact I'd say it is still rather unlikely, whatever happens to Brexit. Corbyn's personal polling is calamitous and he will now be facing a new Tory leader, probably with a honeymoon (however shortlived, and it will be short).
    > >
    > > I’d like both Labour and Tories to lose. I’d certainly like Corbyn gone. If he could go at ghe same time as May, hooray! But of the two I’d judge Labour to be more resilient: they can get rid of their leader. They have something to say, much of it attractive, on a range of topics.
    > >
    > > Changing the Tories leader won’t help. They are split. There is no guarantee they will get Brexit voters back. They will own the consequences of whatever Brexit they manage to get (if they get it) and if it’s bad it will not help them. They have nothing to say on anything other than Brexit. They have forgotten how to argue for what they claim to believe in. The tide is turning against the sort of free market ideology they have espoused and they have nothing to say on the issues of today let alone tomorrow.
    > >
    > > So yes I think the Tories are being incredibly complacent.
    >
    > They aren't, if they were they would be keeping May

    She should have gone months ago
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @MTimT said:
    > A thought just crossed my mind about why the Labour vote collapse is mirroring the Tory one - regardless of how crap or left wing Corbyn is, if you vote Labour as the non-Tory party, if there is no Tory party, there's no reason to vote Labour.

    The grisly embrace.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    edited May 2019
    <b>India vote count:</b>

    Begins 0330 UK time, first 30 mins is postal ballots counting and then 0400 the EVMs are opened (electronic voting machines).

    Whole country should be counted in 5-6 hours or so (2014 554m votes cast!)

    542/543 Lok Sabha seats being counted, polling in 1 seat cancelled after discovery of huge cache of money linked to a candidate!

    Exit polls show return to power for Modi and BJP-led alliance but not on scale of 2014 landslide.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zR7HkEa3Swg

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/results

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/constituency-map

    Finally, voting schedule for the Euros:

    Thursday - Netherlands, UK (Dutch results may be released early, ignoring embargo)

    Friday - Czech Republic, Ireland

    Saturday - Czech Republic (am only), Latvia, Malta, Slovakia, also French overseas territories

    Sunday - everywhere else, results released once Italy finishes voting at 11pm local time

    Belgium also holds general election, Spain regional elections, Ireland local elections & divorce referendum

    Thanks!

    DC
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    @DoubleCarpet half a billion votes in five hours? Our councils could learn a thing or two :o
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2019
    > @RobD said:
    > @DoubleCarpet half a billion votes in five hours? Our councils could learn a thing or two :o

    It's easy to count a lot of votes quickly if you count them at the polling stations and send the information to a results HQ. I think we're the only country in the world that doesn't count in that way.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    > @RobD said:
    > @DoubleCarpet half a billion votes in five hours? Our councils could learn a thing or two :o

    Hang on, Tower Hamlets is able to count that number overnight.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    Electronic voting, electronic counting!!

    Brazil also fully electronic and v fast, most other countries count at polling stations so faster than UK, eg Spain all done in 4-5 hours
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    Anyway good to see I'm not the only one up at this hour!
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    Andy I think Ireland, Japan, South Korea are only other countries which use counting centres (and actually India may do too but is obv electronic).

    Ireland only other country which does declarations.

    OMG they have called 3 seats immediately!!
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    11 seats called in 1st 8 mins, first 30 mins is postal votes only, BJP up 1 Congress down 1 already
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    Now 34 seat leads called in 12 mins!!
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    BJP wins 28, Congress 7 of 1st 40 seat leads called
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    This has to be seen to be believed, 66 seat leads called in 15 mins
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    Now 109!!!!!
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    Yes India has counting centres not polling station count (as voting in 7 phases and finished several days ago).
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    135 seats called, BJP 96 no change, Congress 31 up 5
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    202 seats called in 30 mins!! BJP down 11 Congress up 16
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    The impressive thing about the speed of the Japanese counts is that not only is it all paper, they haven't even deployed checkbox technology. Every vote is a write-in.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    On topic, I disagree Mike. The polls are very clear in Scotland:

    SNP 38% - 40% (up from 29%)
    Labour 14% - 20% (down from 26%)
    Brexit Party 10% - 16% (steady from UKIP’s 11%)
    Conservatives 10% - 16% (down from 17%)
    Lib Dems 6% - 10% (steady from 7%)
    Greens 3% - 7% (down from 8%)
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    And Edmund the number of misaddressed letters in Japan is tiny I believe.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    rcs1000 said:

    > @RobD said:

    > @DoubleCarpet half a billion votes in five hours? Our councils could learn a thing or two :o



    Hang on, Tower Hamlets is able to count that number overnight.

    Titter :D
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    This is totally amazing, but has none of the theatre of UK election nights.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    New thread!
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    > @MTimT said:
    > A thought just crossed my mind about why the Labour vote collapse is mirroring the Tory one - regardless of how crap or left wing Corbyn is, if you vote Labour as the non-Tory party, if there is no Tory party, there's no reason to vote Labour.

    Yes. They prop each other up.

    Peter Hitchens just might actually have something to smile about now.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    > @DoubleCarpet said:
    > 202 seats called in 30 mins!! BJP down 11 Congress up 16

    Yes!!!! Excellent news.
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