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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final Euros polls show a picture that is far from clear
The final polls on the eve of the 2019 Euros look very confusing and it is hard to find a clear picture. The Tories range from 7% to 14% while the LDs are polling between 12% and 19%.
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If as I suspect the polls are over estimating turnout that could throw up a surprise or two.
> Turnout will be the one to look at.
>
> If as I suspect the polls are over estimating turnout that could throw up a surprise or two.
I think turnout will be >50%. This is the best proxy for a PV there could ever be.
> @Pro_Rata said:
> > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > Leadsom is a little chilly, but still less so than May. She's also a little more intelligent than May. A little intelligence is a dangerous thing, however.
> >
> > Mordaunt would be a better leader than either of them, if you're a committed Brexiter.
>
> Gut feeling - McVey.
>
> As gut feelings go, it's about as welcome as gastro enteritis.
https://twitter.com/stevebakerhw/status/1131301713741340672?s=21
UKIP 2 - 4%
SNP 3 - 4%
CHUK 3 - 5%
Green 4 - 12%
Tories 7 - 14%
Lib Dem 12 - 19%
Labour 13 - 25%
BXP 27 - 38 %
Simple averages :.
Plaid 0.5%
UKIP 3%
SNP 3.5%
CHUK 4%
Green 8%
Tories 11%
Lib Dem 15.5%
Labour 19%
Brexit 32.5%
3% Northern Ireland, various independents
She voted Remain, does not like Brexit at all and usually votes Labour.
She said she did not know who to vote for.
One of the Brexit Party leaflets almost encourages a Labour vote if delivered to a remainer. Curiously enough it's been addressed to my other half's daughter -with an obviously european name.
> https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1131304717433409536
Not the letter of someone intending to quit.
https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1131305290589192192?s=21
> Bollocks to Brexit - I am voting LD tomorrow!
>
> Bollocks to Brussels?
lol - Hobsons choice. Given where we are now Bollocks to Brexit is stronger in my preference. Maybe we compromise and Bollocks to May!
...
Ok, ok. I just got elected as chair of our Town Council. I was desperately hoping that May would resign tonight as that would have been a faintly hilarious coincidence, but sadly not.
> Bollocks to Brexit - I am voting LD tomorrow!
>
> Bollocks to Brussels?
On the plus side, they're about the same size and shape, but I'd still see a doctor for that if I were you Sunil.
> Finally I’ve found someone in the Brexit Party I agree with, and would vote for.
>
> https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1131305290589192192?s=21
The poster makes it look like they’re attacking the Remoaner elite.
> The man who voted against delivering Brexit at every chance has a message for his party:
>
> https://twitter.com/stevebakerhw/status/1131301713741340672?s=21
Well vote for the Withdrawal Agreement then you idiot!
> Did anyone watch Cable vs Farage? Farage pulled Cable up on ‘Bollocks to Brexit’ saying it coarsened the debate and was surprised a man like Vince would condone the phrase as it wasn’t one he’d expect him to use.
Pompous as well as egotistical?
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > Finally I’ve found someone in the Brexit Party I agree with, and would vote for.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1131305290589192192?s=21
>
> The poster makes it look like they’re attacking the Remoaner elite.
One key rule of advertising. NEVER advertise your competition. People only see the logo.
> Xfer to new thread
>
> > @Pro_Rata said:
> > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > Leadsom is a little chilly, but still less so than May. She's also a little more intelligent than May. A little intelligence is a dangerous thing, however.
> > >
> > > Mordaunt would be a better leader than either of them, if you're a committed Brexiter.
> >
> > Gut feeling - McVey.
> >
> > As gut feelings go, it's about as welcome as gastro enteritis.
>
>
Leadsom is not more intelligent than May on any level even if a bit more personable
> https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1131303186210447360
I would be surprised if the SNP don't get 3 MEPs and they have the chance of a fourth.
> Did anyone watch Cable vs Farage? Farage pulled Cable up on ‘Bollocks to Brexit’ saying it coarsened the debate and was surprised a man like Vince would condone the phrase as it wasn’t one he’d expect him to use.
The LD are shysters! I am still voting LD tomorrow though! Farage is a bigger shyster though. How did he get away with up to 500K of cash for personal use from Arron Banks?
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1131304717433409536
>
> Not the letter of someone intending to quit.
Reads like a tutor putting to rights a capable but impetuous student.
> Turnout will be the one to look at.
>
>
>
> If as I suspect the polls are over estimating turnout that could throw up a surprise or two.
>
>
>
>
>
> That proves it then: @Ishmael_Z can't be right about turnover - the scale only goes up to 45%!
>
> It could be anywhere really, depends whether both sides are fired up, or only one of them is!
I agree. Tough one to call. When canvassing EVERYONE tells me they are voting. Oh, no they are not!
> > @Pro_Rata said:
> > Xfer to new thread
> >
> > > @Pro_Rata said:
> > > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > > Leadsom is a little chilly, but still less so than May. She's also a little more intelligent than May. A little intelligence is a dangerous thing, however.
> > > >
> > > > Mordaunt would be a better leader than either of them, if you're a committed Brexiter.
> > >
> > > Gut feeling - McVey.
> > >
> > > As gut feelings go, it's about as welcome as gastro enteritis.
> >
> >
>
> Leadsom is not more intelligent than May on any level even if a bit more personable
May demonstrates virtually no capacity to anticipate how anything will play out.
She's well intentioned, but that's not enough. Her inability to communicate confidently and persuasively was evident at her very first PMQs.
The inaugural Euro elections in 1979 saw the Tories on 48% of the vote, winning 60 of 81 seats.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/05/20/putting-thursday-into-context-a-look-back-at-previous-uk-euro-elections/
If the WAB does get published tomorrow, will there be any reporting on it allowed before the polls are closed?
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > Finally I’ve found someone in the Brexit Party I agree with, and would vote for.
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1131305290589192192
>
>
>
>
>
> The poster makes it look like they’re attacking the Remoaner elite.
>
> The led by donkeys campaign has surely been a net positive for The Brexit Party.
agreed
> https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1131306845363146758?s=21
It’s an interesting point. If there’s a big result for the Lib Dems, those pollsters who have them trailing behind Labour will have some thinking to do.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1131309813273628673
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > Finally I’ve found someone in the Brexit Party I agree with, and would vote for.
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1131305290589192192
>
>
>
>
>
> The poster makes it look like they’re attacking the Remoaner elite.
>
> The led by donkeys campaign has surely been a net positive for The Brexit Party.
It's a terrible campaign. It looks as though it's a message on behalf of the BP.
Average date of sampling fieldwork in reverse chronological order, followed by Brexit and Labour shares.
Most recent fieldwork:
BMG (1 day ago, Brexit 35%, Lab 18%)
You Gov (2 days ago, Brexit 37%, Lab 13%)
Opinium (3.5 days, Brexit 38%, Lab 17%)
Older fieldwork:
Panelbase (4.5 days, Brexit 30%, Lab 25%)
Kantar (4.5 days, Brexit 27%, Lab 24%)
Survation (5 days, Brexit 30%, Lab 24%)
Com Res (7 days, Brexit 32%, Lab 22%)
Even with house effects clearly distorting the picture, a pattern is clear - the polls with the most recent fieldwork have the highest Brexit shares and the lowest Labour shares.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1131304717433409536
>
> Not the letter of someone intending to quit.
Surely she just has a Word macro to write these letters now, she's had to write so many of them.
History shows respondents overstate their likelihood to vote.
Look at Sunil's chart and the lowest turnout in the Euros was the most recent time the Euros didn't coincide with the locals, so I'd reckon turnout will be somewhere in the 30% to 40% range.
> Even with house effects clearly distorting the picture, a pattern is clear - the polls with the most recent fieldwork have the highest Brexit shares and the lowest Labour shares.
>
>
Nah, I think that's all house effects. Take a look at the YouGov and ComRes polls throughout the campaign and you will see that the house effect is massively larger than any trend over time - though I do think there is a small trend in TBP favour.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Pro_Rata said:
> > > Xfer to new thread
> > >
> > > > @Pro_Rata said:
> > > > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > > > Leadsom is a little chilly, but still less so than May. She's also a little more intelligent than May. A little intelligence is a dangerous thing, however.
> > > > >
> > > > > Mordaunt would be a better leader than either of them, if you're a committed Brexiter.
> > > >
> > > > Gut feeling - McVey.
> > > >
> > > > As gut feelings go, it's about as welcome as gastro enteritis.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > Leadsom is not more intelligent than May on any level even if a bit more personable
>
> May demonstrates virtually no capacity to anticipate how anything will play out.
>
> She's well intentioned, but that's not enough. Her inability to communicate confidently and persuasively was evident at her very first PMQs.
She was there for the details of the negotiations and if the Commons rejects the outcome of that again and she goes so does earnest, serious politics for the time being and on we go with Boris hard Brexit populism v Corbyn socialism populism.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > Turnout will be the one to look at.
>
> >
>
> > If as I suspect the polls are over estimating turnout that could throw up a surprise or two.
>
>
>
> I think turnout will be >50%. This is the best proxy for a PV there could ever be.
>
> Interesting.
>
> What do you think it will be @TheScreamingEagles ?
>
> The latest YouGov poll says turnout will be at least 54%, I will be amazed if it is that high.
>
> History shows respondents overstate their likelihood to vote.
>
> Look at Sunil's chart and the lowest turnout in the Euros was the most recent time the Euros didn't coincide with the locals, so I'd reckon turnout will be somewhere in the 30% to 40% range.
I’d go with 40-50. I know the LDs will be out knocking up, which doesn’t normally happen in Euro els.
> https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1131310514242564102?s=20
Surely the easy response to this is 'But so is europhilism'.
> > @isam said:
> > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> >
> > > Finally I’ve found someone in the Brexit Party I agree with, and would vote for.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1131305290589192192
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > The poster makes it look like they’re attacking the Remoaner elite.
> >
> > The led by donkeys campaign has surely been a net positive for The Brexit Party.
>
> It's a terrible campaign. It looks as though it's a message on behalf of the BP.
It's a terrible campaign and it's also a terrible breach of electoral campaign finance law.
https://order-order.com/2019/05/22/led-donkeys-questions-electoral-commission/
> The inaugural Euro elections in 1979 saw the Tories on 48% of the vote, winning 60 of 81 seats.
>
> http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/05/20/putting-thursday-into-context-a-look-back-at-previous-uk-euro-elections/
They of course used FPTP back then! I never understand whether Blair had to change to PR or he choose to do it. Given he is pro-European it was a pretty big own goal if he choose to do it as Farage would never had the success he has had under PR. A FPTP seat could of been circa 500,000 electors. Impossible for a candidate to get a significant personal vote outside one of the main established political parties in my view. The LD and the Greens both got punished by FPTP in European elections. I could not envisage Farage being punished any less by FPTP!
*delete as applicable.
21:42 ITV’s Daniel Hewitt understands that the 1922 Executive has voted tonight on whether or not to change Tory party rules to allow a new confidence vote in Theresa May. The votes have been sealed in an envelope, and if the PM hasn’t announced she’s resigned by Friday, they will open it.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1131306845363146758?s=21
>
> It’s an interesting point. If there’s a big result for the Lib Dems, those pollsters who have them trailing behind Labour will have some thinking to do.
(Serious hat goes on for a minute)
Given the number of parties and newness of some of the parties, the published questions have varied quite a lot in how they prompt for the parties.
The Survation that didn't prompt party names at all and found not a single CHUK voter from ca. 150 Londoners where they had previously been polling 10%+ was a favourite. That the poll was the one used to then recommend LD tactical voting almost everywhere was a little fishy! That poll both announced and presaged the LD surge and CHUK fall back.
As long as your poll is representative of the group likely to vote i'm not sure it makes much different to the voteshares.
> > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> > The inaugural Euro elections in 1979 saw the Tories on 48% of the vote, winning 60 of 81 seats.
> >
> > http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/05/20/putting-thursday-into-context-a-look-back-at-previous-uk-euro-elections/
>
> They of course used FPTP back then! I never understand whether Blair had to change to PR or he choose to do it. Given he is pro-European it was a pretty big own goal if he choose to do it as Farage would never had the success he has had under PR. A FPTP seat could of been circa 500,000 electors. Impossible for a candidate to get a significant personal vote outside one of the main established political parties in my view. The LD and the Greens both got punished by FPTP in European elections. I could not envisage Farage being punished any less by FPTP!
It became a requirement of the EU to use one of a range of broadly proportional systems. The EU wasn’t happy at the distorted delegation the UK sent during the Thatcher years, the latter of course having resisted any move from FPTnP
Edit/ we could - and should - use STV, like Northern Ireland. People blame the EU for the closed list system, but it was actually a UK choice.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1131310514242564102?s=20
>
> Surely the easy response to this is 'But so is europhilism'.
As is Corbynism
> https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1131313560037068800
So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1131310514242564102?s=20
>
> Surely the easy response to this is 'But so is europhilism'.
Except I think the voters may be thinking Brexit is more of a "drink the Kool-aid", death cult. I will stick my neck out and say I don't think TBP will break 35%
> > @KentRising said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1131310514242564102?s=20
> >
> > Surely the easy response to this is 'But so is europhilism'.
>
> As is Corbynism
Should Brexitphobia (an irrational fear of leaving the EU) be made a criminal offence and talk of a people’s vote regarded as blasphemy?....
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1131313560037068800
>
> So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension
There won’t be any veto. You don’t understand how the EU likes to work.
> The end of May is more brutal and miserable than the end of any PM I can recall.
Yep.True. Devoid of dignity, at least so far.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > Finally I’ve found someone in the Brexit Party I agree with, and would vote for.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1131305290589192192?s=21
>
> The poster makes it look like they’re attacking the Remoaner elite.<
++++
OMG. It does. You're completely right.
LedByDonkeys are so mulishly stupid they've managed to produce an attack ad that attacks themselves. That's impressive.
> You don't have to be a political genius to predict what's going to happen on Sunday night: Brexiteers will claim the result as a great victory because they'll win the most votes, while Remainers will also claim victory because the majority of people will have voted for parties supporting Remain.
Remainers may not even be able to claim that, most polls have Brexit Party plus Tories plus UKIP plus DUP neck and neck with Labour plus LDs plus Greens plus SNP plus Plaid plus SF
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliamentary_Elections_Act_1999
> You don't have to be a political genius to predict what's going to happen on Sunday night: Brexiteers will claim the result as a great victory because they'll win the most votes, while Remainers will also claim victory because the majority of people will have voted for parties supporting Remain.
>
> The second part of that is not a given if, IF, recent polls are correct
I think it's very likely if you include Labour in the pro-Remain total, although it's not clear this is the right thing to do for the whole of the Labour share since probably 20% or 30% of Labour voters are still pro-Brexit.
> According to guido:
> 21:42 ITV’s Daniel Hewitt understands that the 1922 Executive has voted tonight on whether or not to change Tory party rules to allow a new confidence vote in Theresa May. The votes have been sealed in an envelope, and if the PM hasn’t announced she’s resigned by Friday, they will open it.
Schrodinger's PM.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1131313560037068800
> >
> > So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension
>
> There won’t be any veto. You don’t understand how the EU likes to work.
I understand exactly how the French like to work, they vetoed our original entry in the first place and Macron will complete the circle started by De Gaulle by kicking us out if need be if we cannot make up our minds
https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1131274141032747008
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/07/billboard-campaigners-brexit-led-by-donkeys
> The end of May is more brutal and miserable than the end of any PM I can recall.<
++++
Agreed.
But she has no one to blame but herself. Sadly. It was doomed from the moment she boxed herself in to an impossible Brexit, with her absurd red lines, at her first speech as leader to the Tory conference (and also managed to insult half the world with her "citizens of nowhere" bollocks).
It is a true tragedy: somebody morally decent destroyed by their own flaws.