> @Richard_Nabavi said: > Initially I have some sympathy with May in extremely difficult circumstances, now it is worse than Gordon hanging on after the GE. > > Not often I defend Gordon Brown, but he acted completely correctly after the 2015 GE. It was entirely proper to wait to see whether Cameron would be in a position to form a government before going to the Queen.
Also worth adding that he and his ministers made a point of including the Tory shadow ministers in any decisions they were forced to make during that period. Most notably of course being the Greek finance crisis where Darling was going to have to make far reaching decisions which could not be postponed.
Rory the Tory showing he's everything Michael Gove isn't. Unfortunately that just makes him an anachronism. Rory has no chance. Hail Ceasar! Hail Michael Gove! His clamber up the greasy poll from Theatre critic on Newsnight with Kirsty Walk to PM will have been beyond Machiavellian
To complain about "Gordon hanging on after the GE" is to swallow Tory spin and misunderstand the constitution. Brown was PM up until David Cameron concluded a deal with the LibDems. There could not have been a five-day period with no prime minister and no government.
The most obvious comparison is with the February 1974 election when Ted Heath similarly remained in office for five days until Labour could demonstrate it could form a government.
Either the Cabinet does it or the 1922 will change the rules on the leadership contest and the back benches will do it.
Either way she's done for.
The cabinet don't want to do it in case the wrong one wins. The '22 might do it, but they are also wary in case it comes back to bite them, like the £3 membership crippled Labour.
I get it's the media's job to report what is happening right now, but I can't help but find this breathless "Rumours May could be gone within hours" to be a bit dull. Why not just wait a few hours and see if she's gone?
The cabinet don't want to do it in case the wrong one wins. The '22 might do it, but they are also wary in case it comes back to bite them, like the £3 membership crippled Labour.
The problem with May going is that her successor will have to be hand picked. The problem with that is that each faction wants to hand pick their own person. There's your immovable object and your unstoppable force.
> @Quincel said: > I get it's the media's job to report what is happening right now, but I can't help but find this breathless "Rumours May could be gone within hours" to be a bit dull. Why not just wait a few hours and see if she's gone?
Essentially Twitter and live blogs et al. turned politics into a spectator sport.
Edit - I say that like it's not half the reason I pay attention...
She's been done for since the GE2017 exit poll, but the timing of the denouement continues to be elusive. Will the Cabinet move today? If not, if she survives to recess, then will the move against her wait until the Commons returns on the 4th, two days before the D-Day commemorations, in the middle of a state visit from Trump?
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1131193123701448704 > > > > Initially I have some sympathy with May in extremely difficult circumstances, now it is worse than Gordon hanging on after the GE. > > To complain about "Gordon hanging on after the GE" is to swallow Tory spin and misunderstand the constitution. Brown was PM up until David Cameron concluded a deal with the LibDems. There could not have been a five-day period with no prime minister and no government. > > The most obvious comparison is with the February 1974 election when Ted Heath similarly remained in office for five days until Labour could demonstrate it could form a government.
February 1974 was a different scenario. Heath held on until it was clear he could not get the backing of the Liberals under Thorpe. He knew he could not command a majority in the Commons but it was not at all clear when he resigned that Wilson could either.
> @solarflare said: > > @Quincel said: > > I get it's the media's job to report what is happening right now, but I can't help but find this breathless "Rumours May could be gone within hours" to be a bit dull. Why not just wait a few hours and see if she's gone? > > Essentially Twitter and live blogs et al. turned politics into a spectator sport. > > Edit - I say that like it's not half the reason I pay attention...
The worst is election night hype. You've heard there might be some surprises in the South East (based on...)? Why not wait 90 minutes until they declare and we find out?! Until then just leave us with John Curtice to explain what's actually going on.
Would be ironic if we lost T May today. She talked more sense on the Brexit issue today than in the totality of her previous 3 years. Tbf, Corbyn was making sense too. No one is in the mood to listen to reality right now sadly. No Deal or Revoke are the two options left standing. Strap in. It will be a bumpy ride!
> @dixiedean said: > Would be ironic if we lost T May today. She talked more sense on the Brexit issue today than in the totality of her previous 3 years. Tbf, Corbyn was making sense too. > No one is in the mood to listen to reality right now sadly. No Deal or Revoke are the two options left standing. > Strap in. It will be a bumpy ride!
To make it worse, it won't stop there. No Deal means immediately begin the same negotiations and blame-game but as a non-member and Revoke means keep arguing about leaving the EU for years. We can't get rid of the worst parts of Brexit no matter what we do.
> @Quincel said: > > @dixiedean said: > > Would be ironic if we lost T May today. She talked more sense on the Brexit issue today than in the totality of her previous 3 years. Tbf, Corbyn was making sense too. > > No one is in the mood to listen to reality right now sadly. No Deal or Revoke are the two options left standing. > > Strap in. It will be a bumpy ride! > > To make it worse, it won't stop there. No Deal means immediately begin the same negotiations and blame-game but as a non-member and Revoke means keep arguing about leaving the EU for years. We can't get rid of the worst parts of Brexit no matter what we do.
Regarding the Cabinet, there is no reason why any of them should resign. They instead should sack the PM in the same way that a board sacks the CEO. May gets told she has two options - go now with a remaining shred of dignity, or watch her cabinet openly brief against her publicly denouncing her and the WAB.
If - as it appears - the PM has gone public with things rejected by Cabinet, then its members no longer need to worry about collective responsibility.
Whats really sad though is the same isn't far from being true on the Labour benches. Someone asked me what the Labour position was for tomorrows election and I honestly couldn't tell them. We deserve to be given an absolute kicking and then Corbyn being walked down the same plank that May will be despatched along.
For the first time since 1979 whether an EU, general or local election no Tory literature has been delivered to the house I am living in. Possibly not that significant as far as the result is concerned but symptomatic of the current Tory mess. No wonder Dan Hannan my local MEP is panicking.
> @SquareRoot said: > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > Range of possible options for the Tories tomorrow: > > > > Dreadful terrible, awful, catastrophic. > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > Range of possible options for the Tories tomorrow: > > > > Dreadful terrible, awful, catastrophic. > > Sensible Tories will vote Lib Dem
Sensible Tories will vote Tory.
The Lib Dems are not much different to the Brexit party: a single policy masquerading as a manifesto for government, which if implemented would cause even more division and damage (albeit in their case indirectly), than what the current government's done.
I guess that they acquire assets on the cheap, hold them in subsidiary companies, sell of the best bits and transfer the cash into Greybull and then the subsidiary companies go bust. Simple if you know how and all perfectly legal...
2019 GE shortening a lot in last few hours. In from approx. 3.75 to 3.35.
Not sure why - new leader surely can't be in place before late July.
In which case even if they wanted an absolutely immediate GE it couldn't be called till Parliament returns in early Sept - implying mid Oct GE.
But is that likely given it's two weeks before EU leaving date of 31 Oct - and surely new leader would have to do something about Brexit before going to the polls.
> @anothernick said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1131211368428912641 > > Surely Greybull must have some successes, or they would have gone under themselves? > > I guess that they acquire assets on the cheap, hold them in subsidiary companies, sell of the best bits and transfer the cash into Greybull and then the subsidiary companies go bust. Simple if you know how and all perfectly legal...
While I can understand that business model - I can't remember any of those companies having any assets that were worth selling off.
> To make it worse, it won't stop there. No Deal means immediately begin the same negotiations and blame-game but as a non-member and Revoke means keep arguing about leaving the EU for years. We can't get rid of the worst parts of Brexit no matter what we do.
But as time passes Uk suppliers will make alternative arrangements. The initial panic will be resolved. And we will all move on.
> @Norm said: > For the first time since 1979 whether an EU, general or local election no Tory literature has been delivered to the house I am living in. Possibly not that significant as far as the result is concerned but symptomatic of the current Tory mess. No wonder Dan Hannan my local MEP is panicking.
The only people we haven't had leaflets from, in Scotland, has been the Lib Dems and the two Independents. This is really weird given the Lib Dem momentum and that I was told a big reason for standing as an Independent candidate was to benefit from the free mailshot (I guess they're only printing enough leaflets for the region they want to post leaflets to).
> @eek said: > > @anothernick said: > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > > https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1131211368428912641 > > > Surely Greybull must have some successes, or they would have gone under themselves? > > > > I guess that they acquire assets on the cheap, hold them in subsidiary companies, sell of the best bits and transfer the cash into Greybull and then the subsidiary companies go bust. Simple if you know how and all perfectly legal... > > While I can understand that business model - I can't remember any of those companies having any assets that were worth selling off. >
> @dixiedean said: > > @Quincel said: > > > @dixiedean said: > > > Would be ironic if we lost T May today. She talked more sense on the Brexit issue today than in the totality of her previous 3 years. Tbf, Corbyn was making sense too. > > > No one is in the mood to listen to reality right now sadly. No Deal or Revoke are the two options left standing. > > > Strap in. It will be a bumpy ride! > > > > To make it worse, it won't stop there. No Deal means immediately begin the same negotiations and blame-game but as a non-member and Revoke means keep arguing about leaving the EU for years. We can't get rid of the worst parts of Brexit no matter what we do. > > Indeed. Deep joy.
If it's No Deal or Revoke, put that to a referendum. Then we can all move on.
> @justin124 said: > > @DecrepitJohnL said: > > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1131193123701448704 > > > > > > Initially I have some sympathy with May in extremely difficult circumstances, now it is worse than Gordon hanging on after the GE. > > > > To complain about "Gordon hanging on after the GE" is to swallow Tory spin and misunderstand the constitution. Brown was PM up until David Cameron concluded a deal with the LibDems. There could not have been a five-day period with no prime minister and no government. > > > > The most obvious comparison is with the February 1974 election when Ted Heath similarly remained in office for five days until Labour could demonstrate it could form a government. > > February 1974 was a different scenario. Heath held on until it was clear he could not get the backing of the Liberals under Thorpe. He knew he could not command a majority in the Commons but it was not at all clear when he resigned that Wilson could either.
The conspiracy theorists hold that in 1974 Thorpe himself was the problem. Because of his calls to bomb Rhodesia (or was it South Africa?) he could not be Foreign Secretary. Because of the Norman Scott affair, he could not be Home Secretary.
Remember in that 1980s fly-on-the-wall documentary when Sir Arnold tells Sir Humphrey to send for the candidates' MI5 files?
Flair and elan possibly, but if there's anything that Boris Johnson has proved himself *not* to have between 2016 and now, and Gove's last splattering and now, it's distinction and intellect.
Flair and elan are clearly true
Distinction can be positive or negative
Intellect is probably true (Boris is smart but lazy)
> @eek said: > > @anothernick said: > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > > https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1131211368428912641 > > > Surely Greybull must have some successes, or they would have gone under themselves? > > > > I guess that they acquire assets on the cheap, hold them in subsidiary companies, sell of the best bits and transfer the cash into Greybull and then the subsidiary companies go bust. Simple if you know how and all perfectly legal... > > While I can understand that business model - I can't remember any of those companies having any assets that were worth selling off. >
Property I guess - I don't know the details of the individual cases but steel works were usually built on massive sites and the latest incarnation of British Steel probably owned half of Scunthorpe and maybe a harbour or two nearby for delivery of materials and export of finished products.
Wednesday 30th October 2019: After MV6 was yesterday voted down Theresa May reminds her party that she had agreed to leave only once the Brexit bill was approved. Today she flies to Brussels to plead for another Brexit extension.
> @MikeL said: > 2019 GE shortening a lot in last few hours. In from approx. 3.75 to 3.35. > > Not sure why - new leader surely can't be in place before late July. > > In which case even if they wanted an absolutely immediate GE it couldn't be called till Parliament returns in early Sept - implying mid Oct GE. > > But is that likely given it's two weeks before EU leaving date of 31 Oct - and surely new leader would have to do something about Brexit before going to the polls.
The more likely route is that the combination of a Hard Brexit Con leader, a hung parliament, Lab being way behind in MPs, possible defections, and the Oct 31 deadline would between them produce a No Confidence vote and election.
> @anothernick said: > > @eek said: > > > @anothernick said: > > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1131211368428912641 > > > > Surely Greybull must have some successes, or they would have gone under themselves? > > > > > > I guess that they acquire assets on the cheap, hold them in subsidiary companies, sell of the best bits and transfer the cash into Greybull and then the subsidiary companies go bust. Simple if you know how and all perfectly legal... > > > > While I can understand that business model - I can't remember any of those companies having any assets that were worth selling off. > > > > Property I guess - I don't know the details of the individual cases but steel works were usually built on massive sites and the latest incarnation of British Steel probably owned half of Scunthorpe and maybe a harbour or two nearby for delivery of materials and export of finished products.
If a business is worth more as parts than a whole - not just that, but enough that creditors can be repaid and a dividend returned to shareholders - then who would keep it going?
> Wednesday 30th October 2019: After MV6 was yesterday voted down Theresa May reminds her party that she had agreed to leave only once the Brexit bill was approved. Today she flies to Brussels to plead for another Brexit extension.
Yup, that is just as likely a scenario as her being ousted before Newsnight goes on air. Because she is thick skinned and masochistic beyond belief, and because Tory MPs are frit.
> @david_herdson said: > > @SquareRoot said: > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > > Range of possible options for the Tories tomorrow: > > > > > > Dreadful terrible, awful, catastrophic. > > > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > > Range of possible options for the Tories tomorrow: > > > > > > Dreadful terrible, awful, catastrophic. > > > > Sensible Tories will vote Lib Dem > > Sensible Tories will vote Tory. > > The Lib Dems are not much different to the Brexit party: a single policy masquerading as a manifesto for government, which if implemented would cause even more division and damage (albeit in their case indirectly), than what the current government's done.
Yes - I think a "loyal Leaver" is probably the likeliest category of winner (my three categories being "hardcore Leaver", "loyal Leaver" and "converted Remainer"). I don't know if he was involved with the above though.
> @TGOHF said: > > @Quincel said: > > > To make it worse, it won't stop there. No Deal means immediately begin the same negotiations and blame-game but as a non-member and Revoke means keep arguing about leaving the EU for years. We can't get rid of the worst parts of Brexit no matter what we do. > > But as time passes Uk suppliers will make alternative arrangements. The initial panic will be resolved. And we will all move on.
I guess you don't have any relatives with jobs or businesses that will suffer during the "moving on" phase? Or perhaps you just absurdly optimistic in a childish way,ignorant or sociopathic? All three?
> @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > @anothernick said: > > > @eek said: > > > > @anothernick said: > > > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1131211368428912641 > > > > > Surely Greybull must have some successes, or they would have gone under themselves? > > > > > > > > I guess that they acquire assets on the cheap, hold them in subsidiary companies, sell of the best bits and transfer the cash into Greybull and then the subsidiary companies go bust. Simple if you know how and all perfectly legal... > > > > > > While I can understand that business model - I can't remember any of those companies having any assets that were worth selling off. > > > > > > > Property I guess - I don't know the details of the individual cases but steel works were usually built on massive sites and the latest incarnation of British Steel probably owned half of Scunthorpe and maybe a harbour or two nearby for delivery of materials and export of finished products. > > If a business is worth more as parts than a whole - not just that, but enough that creditors can be repaid and a dividend returned to shareholders - then who would keep it going?
Right, but it sounds like they extract the cash for themselves and leave the other creditors hanging.
Yes - I think a "loyal Leaver" is probably the likeliest category of winner (my three categories being "hardcore Leaver", "loyal Leaver" and "converted Remainer"). I don't know if he was involved with the above though.
Which category does Boris fit into (perhaps all three)?
Yes - I think a "loyal Leaver" is probably the likeliest category of winner (my three categories being "hardcore Leaver", "loyal Leaver" and "converted Remainer"). I don't know if he was involved with the above though.
Which category does Boris fit into (perhaps all three)?
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > Yes - I think a "loyal Leaver" is probably the likeliest category of winner (my three categories being "hardcore Leaver", "loyal Leaver" and "converted Remainer"). I don't know if he was involved with the above though. > > Which category does Boris fit into (perhaps all three)?
> @MarqueeMark said: > Been out in the garden attacking brambles. Do we still have Prime Minister May?
Sounds like the Cabinet is divided three ways.
Loyalists - Still haven't come to terms with losing the 2017GE and will back May to the end. Negotiated Resignation - Want to come to some compromise with May that involves her setting a date for her departure, but pulling the WAB vote in the interim and a managed transition to a new leader. No Deal Resignation - Pushing for an immediate resignation on 1922 terms.
Since there's a majority against every option the impasse may continue for some time...
The key bit being: “The third thing that has happened is that cabinet ministers, who up to now have thought that a delay to a leadership contest was in their interests, are now realising that association with this package is toxic in party terms. If May ploughs on with it, and they all have to vote for it at second reading, then Boris Johnson would be the big winner.”
Rory certainly. Mrs May is very sensible in her political positioning, but not in her assessment of whether her positioning can be implemented in parliament as things now stand.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > Are Mrs May and Rory Stewart "sensible Tories" ? > > Rory certainly. Mrs May is very sensible in her political positioning, but not in her assessment of whether her positioning can be implemented in parliament as things now stand.
I think her problem is in the execution and in the persuasion of others to follow her.
Surely Greybull must have some successes, or they would have gone under themselves?
Why, after milking all those I presume they are loaded, question is who works for them and do they have any advisors who are politicians or ex-politicians
> @Fenman said: > > @david_herdson said: > > > @SquareRoot said: > > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > > > Range of possible options for the Tories tomorrow: > > > > > > > > Dreadful terrible, awful, catastrophic. > > > > > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > > > Range of possible options for the Tories tomorrow: > > > > > > > > Dreadful terrible, awful, catastrophic. > > > > > > Sensible Tories will vote Lib Dem > > > > Sensible Tories will vote Tory. > > > > The Lib Dems are not much different to the Brexit party: a single policy masquerading as a manifesto for government, which if implemented would cause even more division and damage (albeit in their case indirectly), than what the current government's done. > > Sensible Tories?
This "sensible Tory" will be voting for the yellow peril. I will carry on lending them my vote until such day as the Conservative Party stop being Brexit/fascist lite and start being a sensible party of aspiration and the economy again. As the seriously swivel-eyed firmly have the tiller of the ship, that may be some time
All sounds possible except for the Lidington part. Don't see why TM can't remain as PM while the Tories have their contest to elect a new leader.
In fact really, it is her duty to do so... Don't think we've ever had a PM that has just gone without their successor being put in place since Anthony Eden?
Surely Greybull must have some successes, or they would have gone under themselves?
You buy the company at a deflated price, get funding from the government, strip off all the desirable bits to another company, go bust, buy any desirable assets at pennies to the pound, then eff off and let the taxpayer clean up the mess. I think that's what Alchemy did with Rover IIRC
Comments
> Range of possible options for the Tories tomorrow:
>
> Dreadful terrible, awful, catastrophic.
Hilarious. Deserved.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1131206989613342720
> Initially I have some sympathy with May in extremely difficult circumstances, now it is worse than Gordon hanging on after the GE.
>
> Not often I defend Gordon Brown, but he acted completely correctly after the 2015 GE. It was entirely proper to wait to see whether Cameron would be in a position to form a government before going to the Queen.
Also worth adding that he and his ministers made a point of including the Tory shadow ministers in any decisions they were forced to make during that period. Most notably of course being the Greek finance crisis where Darling was going to have to make far reaching decisions which could not be postponed.
> > @Scott_P said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1131197150052933637
>
>
>
>
>
> I'm not sure he's thought through the logic there...
>
> He might be drunk..
> https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1131187807354011648
Rory the Tory showing he's everything Michael Gove isn't. Unfortunately that just makes him an anachronism. Rory has no chance. Hail Ceasar! Hail Michael Gove! His clamber up the greasy poll from Theatre critic on Newsnight with Kirsty Walk to PM will have been beyond Machiavellian
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/22/george-osbornes-evening-standard-backs-lib-dems-in-eu-polls-european-elections
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1131197150052933637
>
> Quite right, Rory, quite right!
Depends on whether what she has put in the WAB is what they actually agreed.
> https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1131207108597342209
It begins to look as though May is the worst possible person to be PM - except for all the alternatives. Oh dear.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1131193123701448704
>
> Initially I have some sympathy with May in extremely difficult circumstances, now it is worse than Gordon hanging on after the GE.
To complain about "Gordon hanging on after the GE" is to swallow Tory spin and misunderstand the constitution. Brown was PM up until David Cameron concluded a deal with the LibDems. There could not have been a five-day period with no prime minister and no government.
The most obvious comparison is with the February 1974 election when Ted Heath similarly remained in office for five days until Labour could demonstrate it could form a government.
> https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1131207108597342209
We'll still be sitting in here in October reading tweets saying "This is it. Theresa May is finally going to be ousted."
> https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1131207108597342209
Either the Cabinet does it or the 1922 will change the rules on the leadership contest and the back benches will do it.
Either way she's done for.
She's going to have fun on the back benches.....
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1131207108597342209
>
> We'll still be sitting in here in October reading tweets saying "This is it. Theresa May is finally going to be ousted."
"The Cabinet is moving" at the same speed tectonic plates move
> As far as I recall, British Steel has been failing in some guise or other my entire life.
Well Nigel has got a future, just not at British Steel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0C6bVckO_CM
> https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1131207108597342209
>
Oh for Christ's sake. What a bunch of self-serving cowards.
> I get it's the media's job to report what is happening right now, but I can't help but find this breathless "Rumours May could be gone within hours" to be a bit dull. Why not just wait a few hours and see if she's gone?
Essentially Twitter and live blogs et al. turned politics into a spectator sport.
Edit - I say that like it's not half the reason I pay attention...
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1131207108597342209
>
> Either the Cabinet does it or the 1922 will change the rules on the leadership contest and the back benches will do it.
>
> Either way she's done for.
She's been done for since the GE2017 exit poll, but the timing of the denouement continues to be elusive. Will the Cabinet move today? If not, if she survives to recess, then will the move against her wait until the Commons returns on the 4th, two days before the D-Day commemorations, in the middle of a state visit from Trump?
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1131209018725359616
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1131193123701448704
> >
> > Initially I have some sympathy with May in extremely difficult circumstances, now it is worse than Gordon hanging on after the GE.
>
> To complain about "Gordon hanging on after the GE" is to swallow Tory spin and misunderstand the constitution. Brown was PM up until David Cameron concluded a deal with the LibDems. There could not have been a five-day period with no prime minister and no government.
>
> The most obvious comparison is with the February 1974 election when Ted Heath similarly remained in office for five days until Labour could demonstrate it could form a government.
February 1974 was a different scenario. Heath held on until it was clear he could not get the backing of the Liberals under Thorpe. He knew he could not command a majority in the Commons but it was not at all clear when he resigned that Wilson could either.
https://twitter.com/TorySean/status/1131207345885704193
> > @Quincel said:
> > I get it's the media's job to report what is happening right now, but I can't help but find this breathless "Rumours May could be gone within hours" to be a bit dull. Why not just wait a few hours and see if she's gone?
>
> Essentially Twitter and live blogs et al. turned politics into a spectator sport.
>
> Edit - I say that like it's not half the reason I pay attention...
The worst is election night hype. You've heard there might be some surprises in the South East (based on...)? Why not wait 90 minutes until they declare and we find out?! Until then just leave us with John Curtice to explain what's actually going on.
No one is in the mood to listen to reality right now sadly. No Deal or Revoke are the two options left standing.
Strap in. It will be a bumpy ride!
> https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1131211368428912641
Surely Greybull must have some successes, or they would have gone under themselves?
> Would be ironic if we lost T May today. She talked more sense on the Brexit issue today than in the totality of her previous 3 years. Tbf, Corbyn was making sense too.
> No one is in the mood to listen to reality right now sadly. No Deal or Revoke are the two options left standing.
> Strap in. It will be a bumpy ride!
To make it worse, it won't stop there. No Deal means immediately begin the same negotiations and blame-game but as a non-member and Revoke means keep arguing about leaving the EU for years. We can't get rid of the worst parts of Brexit no matter what we do.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > Would be ironic if we lost T May today. She talked more sense on the Brexit issue today than in the totality of her previous 3 years. Tbf, Corbyn was making sense too.
> > No one is in the mood to listen to reality right now sadly. No Deal or Revoke are the two options left standing.
> > Strap in. It will be a bumpy ride!
>
> To make it worse, it won't stop there. No Deal means immediately begin the same negotiations and blame-game but as a non-member and Revoke means keep arguing about leaving the EU for years. We can't get rid of the worst parts of Brexit no matter what we do.
Indeed. Deep joy.
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1131211368428912641
> Surely Greybull must have some successes, or they would have gone under themselves?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asset_stripping
If - as it appears - the PM has gone public with things rejected by Cabinet, then its members no longer need to worry about collective responsibility.
Whats really sad though is the same isn't far from being true on the Labour benches. Someone asked me what the Labour position was for tomorrows election and I honestly couldn't tell them. We deserve to be given an absolute kicking and then Corbyn being walked down the same plank that May will be despatched along.
> > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > Range of possible options for the Tories tomorrow:
> >
> > Dreadful terrible, awful, catastrophic.
>
> > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > Range of possible options for the Tories tomorrow:
> >
> > Dreadful terrible, awful, catastrophic.
>
> Sensible Tories will vote Lib Dem
Sensible Tories will vote Tory.
The Lib Dems are not much different to the Brexit party: a single policy masquerading as a manifesto for government, which if implemented would cause even more division and damage (albeit in their case indirectly), than what the current government's done.
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1131211368428912641
> Surely Greybull must have some successes, or they would have gone under themselves?
I guess that they acquire assets on the cheap, hold them in subsidiary companies, sell of the best bits and transfer the cash into Greybull and then the subsidiary companies go bust. Simple if you know how and all perfectly legal...
Not sure why - new leader surely can't be in place before late July.
In which case even if they wanted an absolutely immediate GE it couldn't be called till Parliament returns in early Sept - implying mid Oct GE.
But is that likely given it's two weeks before EU leaving date of 31 Oct - and surely new leader would have to do something about Brexit before going to the polls.
Mind you, there must be a fair chance that he will defect immediately after election.
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1131211368428912641
> Surely Greybull must have some successes, or they would have gone under themselves?
Oh I think they did very well out of all those companies.
See also MG Rover / Phoenix group.
Take over company for pennies - charge management fees and interest for as long as they can survive and walk away.
> I expect Carole will be breathlessly demanding an EC investigation....or not....
>
> https://twitter.com/TorySean/status/1131207345885704193
£88,000 is actually a pretty modest spend. Is there any reason to suspect they needed nefarious means to raise such a sum?
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1131211368428912641
> > Surely Greybull must have some successes, or they would have gone under themselves?
>
> I guess that they acquire assets on the cheap, hold them in subsidiary companies, sell of the best bits and transfer the cash into Greybull and then the subsidiary companies go bust. Simple if you know how and all perfectly legal...
While I can understand that business model - I can't remember any of those companies having any assets that were worth selling off.
> To make it worse, it won't stop there. No Deal means immediately begin the same negotiations and blame-game but as a non-member and Revoke means keep arguing about leaving the EU for years. We can't get rid of the worst parts of Brexit no matter what we do.
But as time passes Uk suppliers will make alternative arrangements. The initial panic will be resolved. And we will all move on.
> For the first time since 1979 whether an EU, general or local election no Tory literature has been delivered to the house I am living in. Possibly not that significant as far as the result is concerned but symptomatic of the current Tory mess. No wonder Dan Hannan my local MEP is panicking.
The only people we haven't had leaflets from, in Scotland, has been the Lib Dems and the two Independents. This is really weird given the Lib Dem momentum and that I was told a big reason for standing as an Independent candidate was to benefit from the free mailshot (I guess they're only printing enough leaflets for the region they want to post leaflets to).
> > @anothernick said:
> > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1131211368428912641
> > > Surely Greybull must have some successes, or they would have gone under themselves?
> >
> > I guess that they acquire assets on the cheap, hold them in subsidiary companies, sell of the best bits and transfer the cash into Greybull and then the subsidiary companies go bust. Simple if you know how and all perfectly legal...
>
> While I can understand that business model - I can't remember any of those companies having any assets that were worth selling off.
>
Pension funds?
Edit: A genuine question.
The Russian bots look like excellent value
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/brexit-party-nigel-farage-facebook-social-media
> > @Quincel said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> > > Would be ironic if we lost T May today. She talked more sense on the Brexit issue today than in the totality of her previous 3 years. Tbf, Corbyn was making sense too.
> > > No one is in the mood to listen to reality right now sadly. No Deal or Revoke are the two options left standing.
> > > Strap in. It will be a bumpy ride!
> >
> > To make it worse, it won't stop there. No Deal means immediately begin the same negotiations and blame-game but as a non-member and Revoke means keep arguing about leaving the EU for years. We can't get rid of the worst parts of Brexit no matter what we do.
>
> Indeed. Deep joy.
If it's No Deal or Revoke, put that to a referendum. Then we can all move on.
EU referendum voting intention:
Remain: 54% (+1)
Leave: 46% (-1)
via @Panelbase, 14 - 21 May
Chgs. w/ 24 Apr
> Been out in the garden attacking brambles. Do we still have Prime Minister May?
We seem to have entered the Mexican Standoff at the end of The Good The Bad And The Ugly ...
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1131193123701448704
> > >
> > > Initially I have some sympathy with May in extremely difficult circumstances, now it is worse than Gordon hanging on after the GE.
> >
> > To complain about "Gordon hanging on after the GE" is to swallow Tory spin and misunderstand the constitution. Brown was PM up until David Cameron concluded a deal with the LibDems. There could not have been a five-day period with no prime minister and no government.
> >
> > The most obvious comparison is with the February 1974 election when Ted Heath similarly remained in office for five days until Labour could demonstrate it could form a government.
>
> February 1974 was a different scenario. Heath held on until it was clear he could not get the backing of the Liberals under Thorpe. He knew he could not command a majority in the Commons but it was not at all clear when he resigned that Wilson could either.
The conspiracy theorists hold that in 1974 Thorpe himself was the problem. Because of his calls to bomb Rhodesia (or was it South Africa?) he could not be Foreign Secretary. Because of the Norman Scott affair, he could not be Home Secretary.
Remember in that 1980s fly-on-the-wall documentary when Sir Arnold tells Sir Humphrey to send for the candidates' MI5 files?
Distinction can be positive or negative
Intellect is probably true (Boris is smart but lazy)
> > @anothernick said:
> > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1131211368428912641
> > > Surely Greybull must have some successes, or they would have gone under themselves?
> >
> > I guess that they acquire assets on the cheap, hold them in subsidiary companies, sell of the best bits and transfer the cash into Greybull and then the subsidiary companies go bust. Simple if you know how and all perfectly legal...
>
> While I can understand that business model - I can't remember any of those companies having any assets that were worth selling off.
>
Property I guess - I don't know the details of the individual cases but steel works were usually built on massive sites and the latest incarnation of British Steel probably owned half of Scunthorpe and maybe a harbour or two nearby for delivery of materials and export of finished products.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1131207108597342209
>
> We'll still be sitting in here in October reading tweets saying "This is it. Theresa May is finally going to be ousted."
Wednesday 30th October 2019: After MV6 was yesterday voted down Theresa May reminds her party that she had agreed to leave only once the Brexit bill was approved. Today she flies to Brussels to plead for another Brexit extension.
> 2019 GE shortening a lot in last few hours. In from approx. 3.75 to 3.35.
>
> Not sure why - new leader surely can't be in place before late July.
>
> In which case even if they wanted an absolutely immediate GE it couldn't be called till Parliament returns in early Sept - implying mid Oct GE.
>
> But is that likely given it's two weeks before EU leaving date of 31 Oct - and surely new leader would have to do something about Brexit before going to the polls.
The more likely route is that the combination of a Hard Brexit Con leader, a hung parliament, Lab being way behind in MPs, possible defections, and the Oct 31 deadline would between them produce a No Confidence vote and election.
I am -170 him and everyone else except
+188 Raab
+668 Lidders
+579 Morgan
+36830 Portillo
Worst book I’ve ever read! 😝
> > @eek said:
> > > @anothernick said:
> > > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > > > https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1131211368428912641
> > > > Surely Greybull must have some successes, or they would have gone under themselves?
> > >
> > > I guess that they acquire assets on the cheap, hold them in subsidiary companies, sell of the best bits and transfer the cash into Greybull and then the subsidiary companies go bust. Simple if you know how and all perfectly legal...
> >
> > While I can understand that business model - I can't remember any of those companies having any assets that were worth selling off.
> >
>
> Property I guess - I don't know the details of the individual cases but steel works were usually built on massive sites and the latest incarnation of British Steel probably owned half of Scunthorpe and maybe a harbour or two nearby for delivery of materials and export of finished products.
If a business is worth more as parts than a whole - not just that, but enough that creditors can be repaid and a dividend returned to shareholders - then who would keep it going?
> Wednesday 30th October 2019: After MV6 was yesterday voted down Theresa May reminds her party that she had agreed to leave only once the Brexit bill was approved. Today she flies to Brussels to plead for another Brexit extension.
Yup, that is just as likely a scenario as her being ousted before Newsnight goes on air. Because she is thick skinned and masochistic beyond belief, and because Tory MPs are frit.
https://twitter.com/isaby/status/1131210555698700289
For very hefty fees.
That's their business - they don't use their own cash.
> > @SquareRoot said:
> > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > Range of possible options for the Tories tomorrow:
> > >
> > > Dreadful terrible, awful, catastrophic.
> >
> > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > Range of possible options for the Tories tomorrow:
> > >
> > > Dreadful terrible, awful, catastrophic.
> >
> > Sensible Tories will vote Lib Dem
>
> Sensible Tories will vote Tory.
>
> The Lib Dems are not much different to the Brexit party: a single policy masquerading as a manifesto for government, which if implemented would cause even more division and damage (albeit in their case indirectly), than what the current government's done.
Sensible Tories?
https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1131220451806588929
> > @Quincel said:
>
> > To make it worse, it won't stop there. No Deal means immediately begin the same negotiations and blame-game but as a non-member and Revoke means keep arguing about leaving the EU for years. We can't get rid of the worst parts of Brexit no matter what we do.
>
> But as time passes Uk suppliers will make alternative arrangements. The initial panic will be resolved. And we will all move on.
I guess you don't have any relatives with jobs or businesses that will suffer during the "moving on" phase? Or perhaps you just absurdly optimistic in a childish way,ignorant or sociopathic? All three?
> > @anothernick said:
> > > @eek said:
> > > > @anothernick said:
> > > > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > > > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > > > > https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1131211368428912641
> > > > > Surely Greybull must have some successes, or they would have gone under themselves?
> > > >
> > > > I guess that they acquire assets on the cheap, hold them in subsidiary companies, sell of the best bits and transfer the cash into Greybull and then the subsidiary companies go bust. Simple if you know how and all perfectly legal...
> > >
> > > While I can understand that business model - I can't remember any of those companies having any assets that were worth selling off.
> > >
> >
> > Property I guess - I don't know the details of the individual cases but steel works were usually built on massive sites and the latest incarnation of British Steel probably owned half of Scunthorpe and maybe a harbour or two nearby for delivery of materials and export of finished products.
>
> If a business is worth more as parts than a whole - not just that, but enough that creditors can be repaid and a dividend returned to shareholders - then who would keep it going?
Right, but it sounds like they extract the cash for themselves and leave the other creditors hanging.
> Sensible Tories?
>
> Oi, there are a few of us left!
Are Mrs May and Rory Stewart "sensible Tories" ?
The specific market might mean that pays off as next PM but not as next Con leader, if it's on a clearly temporary basis.
> Yes - I think a "loyal Leaver" is probably the likeliest category of winner (my three categories being "hardcore Leaver", "loyal Leaver" and "converted Remainer"). I don't know if he was involved with the above though.
>
> Which category does Boris fit into (perhaps all three)?
Depends on the hour of the day I suspect.
> Been out in the garden attacking brambles. Do we still have Prime Minister May?
Sounds like the Cabinet is divided three ways.
Loyalists - Still haven't come to terms with losing the 2017GE and will back May to the end.
Negotiated Resignation - Want to come to some compromise with May that involves her setting a date for her departure, but pulling the WAB vote in the interim and a managed transition to a new leader.
No Deal Resignation - Pushing for an immediate resignation on 1922 terms.
Since there's a majority against every option the impasse may continue for some time...
> Forsyth's take:
>
> https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1131209018725359616
The key bit being: “The third thing that has happened is that cabinet ministers, who up to now have thought that a delay to a leadership contest was in their interests, are now realising that association with this package is toxic in party terms. If May ploughs on with it, and they all have to vote for it at second reading, then Boris Johnson would be the big winner.”
> Are Mrs May and Rory Stewart "sensible Tories" ?
>
> Rory certainly. Mrs May is very sensible in her political positioning, but not in her assessment of whether her positioning can be implemented in parliament as things now stand.
I think her problem is in the execution and in the persuasion of others to follow her.
More suited to the backroom than front of house.
> > @david_herdson said:
> > > @SquareRoot said:
> > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > > Range of possible options for the Tories tomorrow:
> > > >
> > > > Dreadful terrible, awful, catastrophic.
> > >
> > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > > Range of possible options for the Tories tomorrow:
> > > >
> > > > Dreadful terrible, awful, catastrophic.
> > >
> > > Sensible Tories will vote Lib Dem
> >
> > Sensible Tories will vote Tory.
> >
> > The Lib Dems are not much different to the Brexit party: a single policy masquerading as a manifesto for government, which if implemented would cause even more division and damage (albeit in their case indirectly), than what the current government's done.
>
> Sensible Tories?
This "sensible Tory" will be voting for the yellow peril. I will carry on lending them my vote until such day as the Conservative Party stop being Brexit/fascist lite and start being a sensible party of aspiration and the economy again. As the seriously swivel-eyed firmly have the tiller of the ship, that may be some time
> Ouch
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1131220451806588929
>
>
>
> Has a leader ever jumped on the eve of a national election?
Lidington will get the blame for the Euro election results disaster!
He'll be gone by Monday......
> Ouch
>
> https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1131220451806588929
Time to reverse the calamitous error made in 2016.
> > @Harris_Tweed said:
> > Ouch
> >
> > https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1131220451806588929
>
> Time to reverse the calamitous error made in 2016.
But Cameron won't return as PM.
> Ouch
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1131220451806588929
>
>
>
All sounds possible except for the Lidington part. Don't see why TM can't remain as PM while the Tories have their contest to elect a new leader.
In fact really, it is her duty to do so... Don't think we've ever had a PM that has just gone without their successor being put in place since Anthony Eden?