> "Game Of Thrones: Sophie Turner hits out at 'disrespectful' petition calling for remake
> The Sansa Stark actress says for fans to "rubbish" the series "because it's not what they want to see is just disrespectful"."
Not really - if I was part of the team including the actors who made the series I would feel a bit insulted.
Without them there would have been no show to refilm in the first place - its over done move on....
Death of the Author. A text, once released into the world: who owns it? GoT is a TV show based on an incomplete book series, written by television writers, directed by directors, acted by actors and viewed by viewers, who form their own theories and narratives. When does a show end and who ends it?
No it won't as all the polling suggests Brexit Party voters will surge back to the Tories under a Boris leadership and in any case Labour is also predicted to get its worst national voteshare since 1910 on Thursday too
> > Boris Johnson is overwhelmingly the Tory leader Labour activists fear most according to a new poll of Labour members, 40% more fear him than second placed Rory Stewart
> If polling like this continues beyond the Euros, which Tory Labour activists fear will be spectacularly irrelevant.
No it won't as all the polling suggests Brexit Party voters will surge back to the Tories under a Boris leadership and in any case Labour is also predicted to get its worst national voteshare since 1910 on Thursday too
Only by 1 polling company it should be said, I understand the 20%+ scores from the other pollsters are better than something under Brown or another quite recent one?
> @ah009 said: > > @edmundintokyo said: > > > @ah009 said: > > > Johnson is the lead candidate... yet he's twice as likely not to win as he is to win. > > > Doesn't tally with the aura of inevitability around him on fora like this. > > > Suggests the prognostications of nerds like us is out of sync with those who put their money where there mouths are. > > > > > > Will be interesting to see who's right. > > > > I don't understand who you're arguing with - where are you seeing an aura of inevitability??? > > I'm not arguing with anyone. Just detecting a sense in these BTLs that people here think Johnson is nailed on. Markets have him as a 1/3 shot. Feels like a mismatch and I'm interested to know who's right
If he makes the members ballot - that's where the doubt is.
Yes, there is quite a bit of inertia in our voting habits, despite the current mayhem. I think it'll be more like TBP 34, Lab 18, LD 15, Con 11, Green 10. And the Tiggers are more likely to get 2% than 4%.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @ah009 said: > > > @edmundintokyo said: > > > > @ah009 said: > > > > Johnson is the lead candidate... yet he's twice as likely not to win as he is to win. > > > > Doesn't tally with the aura of inevitability around him on fora like this. > > > > Suggests the prognostications of nerds like us is out of sync with those who put their money where there mouths are. > > > > > > > > Will be interesting to see who's right. > > > > > > I don't understand who you're arguing with - where are you seeing an aura of inevitability??? > > > > I'm not arguing with anyone. Just detecting a sense in these BTLs that people here think Johnson is nailed on. Markets have him as a 1/3 shot. Feels like a mismatch and I'm interested to know who's right > > If he makes the members ballot - that's where the doubt is.
Agreed. But the chatter on these boards doesn't take sufficient account of that, I think. Or the bettors are wrong.
What odds works you take on Johnson to finish in the top 2 after MPs' votes? I wouldn't back at evens.
> @TheJezziah said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > Boris Johnson is overwhelmingly the Tory leader Labour activists fear most according to a new poll of Labour members, 40% more fear him than second placed Rory Stewart > > > > > > > > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7052673/Mays-cabinet-war-No-Deal-Andrea-Leadsom-says-Britain-leave-EU-October-31.html > > > > > > If polling like this continues beyond the Euros, which Tory Labour activists fear will be spectacularly irrelevant. > > > > No it won't as all the polling suggests Brexit Party voters will surge back to the Tories under a Boris leadership and in any case Labour is also predicted to get its worst national voteshare since 1910 on Thursday too > > Only by 1 polling company it should be said, I understand the 20%+ scores from the other pollsters are better than something under Brown or another quite recent one?
Labour polled 15% in the 2009 Euro elections, YouGov now has Corbyn polling worse than that and that is the latest poll
> @HYUFD said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > Boris Johnson is overwhelmingly the Tory leader Labour activists fear most according to a new poll of Labour members, 40% more fear him than second placed Rory Stewart > > > > > > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7052673/Mays-cabinet-war-No-Deal-Andrea-Leadsom-says-Britain-leave-EU-October-31.html > > > > If polling like this continues beyond the Euros, which Tory Labour activists fear will be spectacularly irrelevant. > > No it won't as all the polling suggests Brexit Party voters will surge back to the Tories under a Boris leadership and in any case Labour is also predicted to get its worst national voteshare since 1910 on Thursday too
SNP voters were supposed to surge back to Labour after Corbyn came to power too.
I'm not sure what Johnson offers those who have abandoned the Conservatives. Islamophobia and Latin can only win back so many votes.
> Well, anyway. As rough Boris slouches towards Bethlehem and Farage appoints Peter Creedy as his lieutenant, perhaps some niceness is in order. It doesn't rock my boat myself, but some of you like this nostalgia-ry stuff. So here is the trailer for the upcoming Downton Abbey movie. Enjoy.
Thanks for that. A bit like Mrs May its hard to believe the Violet, the Dowager Duchess of Grantham is still going - Maggie Smith's character must be about 100 years old by now!
> @ah009 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > Boris Johnson is overwhelmingly the Tory leader Labour activists fear most according to a new poll of Labour members, 40% more fear him than second placed Rory Stewart > > > > > > > > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7052673/Mays-cabinet-war-No-Deal-Andrea-Leadsom-says-Britain-leave-EU-October-31.html > > > > > > If polling like this continues beyond the Euros, which Tory Labour activists fear will be spectacularly irrelevant. > > > > No it won't as all the polling suggests Brexit Party voters will surge back to the Tories under a Boris leadership and in any case Labour is also predicted to get its worst national voteshare since 1910 on Thursday too > > SNP voters were supposed to surge back to Labour after Corbyn came to power too. > > I'm not sure what Johnson offers those who have abandoned the Conservatives. Islamophobia and Latin can only win back so many votes.
When did Corbyn offer Scottish independence as Boris would offer hard Brexit?
In any case if the Brexit Party surge follows on from the Euro elections it will take all parties down with it, exactly as the SNP did in 2015. Leavers will surge to the Brexit Party exactly as Nationalists surged to the SNP with the Remain vote split between the main parties as the Unionist vote was and under FPTP that will mean seats falling to the Brexit Party like skittles
Any update on the Electoral Commission’s totally unprompted investigation of the Brexit Party? I assume they’ll be getting a clean bill of health promptly on Friday morning.
> @ah009 said: > Johnson is the lead candidate... yet he's twice as likely not to win as he is to win. > Doesn't tally with the aura of inevitability around him on fora like this. > Suggests the prognostications of nerds like us is out of sync with those who put their money where there mouths are. > > Will be interesting to see who's right.
No. You can't use one result to verify a betting price! You can be a genuine 3:1 shot and still win, "538" had trump at 30% the day before the WH2016 election. Rolling a six is a 5:1 chance but it frequently occurs.
> @HYUFD said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > Good move today I think by May > > > > LOL! She's being subjected to the most brutal set of newspaper headlines we've seen for any PM since El Gord, her parliamentary party is in total uproar, her party in the country is in meltdown and heading for its worst defeat in its 200 year history... And there's no sign anyone in the Labour party has shifted their position in favour of her deal anyway... > > > > And you think Theresa's playing a blinder!!! > > > > *NURSE* > > I do, her position of vote for her Deal then vote for a referendum gives Labour MPs from Leave seats a get out clause, they can vote for Brexit and the Deal to appease their constituents and reduce the BP threat then vote for a referendum to appease their membership. >
This is a leaver-tory projecting his/her opinion onto Labour MPs. It is certainly not how a Labour MP is going to think.
> @Dadge said: > > @KentRising said: > > > @RobD said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/1130972569413267457?s=21 > > > > > > TBP 37%? Can they hit 40 before Thursday? > > > > To quote the blessed Kevin of Keegan, I'd love it absolutely love it if the BP polled that but I think it's going to be low 30s at best, is my hunch. > > Yes, there is quite a bit of inertia in our voting habits, despite the current mayhem. I think it'll be more like TBP 34, Lab 18, LD 15, Con 11, Green 10. And the Tiggers are more likely to get 2% than 4%.
I agree. All down to likelihood to vote. I think, beyond Tory suicide strategy, Lab's failure will be the big talking point.
> @DoubleD said: > > @williamglenn said: > > Letter from John Major to the Times: > > > > "The sheer folly of suspending Michael Heseltine from the Conservative whip defies both logic and belief." > > > > "Withdrawing the whip from such a man — on an issue of conscience — is an over-reaction that will encourage many moderate Conservatives to follow Michael’s example." > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/times-letters-lord-heseltine-and-the-removal-of-the-whip-h0z6k2cg2 > > standard practice. Just because he is a leftie, he should not be protected.
Where are all the expulsions for supporting Farage?
> @DoubleD said: > > @Dadge said: > > > @KentRising said: > > > > @RobD said: > > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/1130972569413267457?s=21 > > > > > > > > TBP 37%? Can they hit 40 before Thursday? > > > > > > To quote the blessed Kevin of Keegan, I'd love it absolutely love it if the BP polled that but I think it's going to be low 30s at best, is my hunch. > > > > Yes, there is quite a bit of inertia in our voting habits, despite the current mayhem. I think it'll be more like TBP 34, Lab 18, LD 15, Con 11, Green 10. And the Tiggers are more likely to get 2% than 4%. > > I agree. All down to likelihood to vote. I think, beyond Tory suicide strategy, Lab's failure will be the big talking point.
> @eristdoof said: > > @ah009 said: > > Johnson is the lead candidate... yet he's twice as likely not to win as he is to win. > > Doesn't tally with the aura of inevitability around him on fora like this. > > Suggests the prognostications of nerds like us is out of sync with those who put their money where there mouths are. > > > > Will be interesting to see who's right. > > > No. You can't use one result to verify a betting price! > You can be a genuine 3:1 shot and still win, "538" had trump at 30% the day before the WH2016 election. Rolling a six is a 5:1 chance but it frequently occurs.
I acknowledge what you're saying and agree to some extent. But the closeness of the result helps us see whether the odds were off. If every MP bar one votes for Johnson and the membership elect him with 95% of the vote, the 33% implied chance was probably wrong in favour of the forum. If he stumbles onto the ballot by a single vote and scrapes home on 51%, the certainty on here will look like bullet-dodging hubris.
Both of the above scenarios have Johnson winning but in ways that give different conclusions in terms of the surity of the predictors and bettors.
> @TheJezziah said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > > Aren't these pretty similar to last YouGov figures... or does everyone adjust to the last poll out and everyone is now shocked because it is different to the ComRes poll? > > > > The changes with the last YouGov are, > > TBP +3 > > LDs +2 > > LAB -2 > > GRN +1 > > CON -2 > > CUK nc > > UKP nc > > So I think that are changes worth noting on, particularly as they exaggerate the difference compared to some other polls. > > Ahh cheers, TBP is decent but the rest are within (usual) margin of error. They are changes admittedly but not particularly shocking when taking into account YouGov's last poll. > > Be interested to see how the pollsters do, will we be getting polls on Wednesday and then nothing allowed on Thursday?
Aren't they all within the margin of error (3%). TBP only one point different to the LD, Lab and Con changes.
I acknowledge what you're saying and agree to some extent. But the closeness of the result helps us see whether the odds were off. If every MP bar one votes for Johnson and the membership elect him with 95% of the vote, the 33% implied chance was probably wrong in favour of the forum. If he stumbles onto the ballot by a single vote and scrapes home on 51%, the certainty on here will look like bullet-dodging hubris. Both of the above scenarios have Johnson winning but in ways that give different conclusions in terms of the surity of the predictors and bettors.
If every MP bar one votes for Johnson, there would be no other candidates. You have to have at least three for an alternative candidate.
> "The sheer folly of suspending Michael Heseltine from the Conservative whip defies both logic and belief."
>
> "Withdrawing the whip from such a man — on an issue of conscience — is an over-reaction that will encourage many moderate Conservatives to follow Michael’s example."
As multiple posters have said all these elections will do is show how polarised the country is. Headline writers will write whatever aligns with their views and no one will back down.
I'm going to sling tiny sums (pence) on the Williams each way to be fastest in first practice at 3001 each (without boost, 3501 with), just in case it swings back.
If Gove han't knifed Boris, we would have been three years ahead of the curve.....
You could be right. Boris might have done a reverse ferret and discovered 18 months ago that he really, really wanted us to stay in the EU. After all, he's betrayed everyone else who's trusted him - it would be odd indeed if he didn't betray those who think he's a a committed Brexiteer.
That is the ray of hope for the party and country; if he wants to grasp the opportunity, he needs to be a bit more specific about one-nation Conservatism than he has been so far. Getting Hammond, Rudd, Clark and Gauke on his side might convince us.
Boris is totally untrustworthy in every single way.
> @HYUFD said: > > @ah009 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > Boris Johnson is overwhelmingly the Tory leader Labour activists fear most according to a new poll of Labour members, 40% more fear him than second placed Rory Stewart > > > > > > > > > > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7052673/Mays-cabinet-war-No-Deal-Andrea-Leadsom-says-Britain-leave-EU-October-31.html > > > > > > > > If polling like this continues beyond the Euros, which Tory Labour activists fear will be spectacularly irrelevant. > > > > > > No it won't as all the polling suggests Brexit Party voters will surge back to the Tories under a Boris leadership and in any case Labour is also predicted to get its worst national voteshare since 1910 on Thursday too > > > > SNP voters were supposed to surge back to Labour after Corbyn came to power too. > > > > I'm not sure what Johnson offers those who have abandoned the Conservatives. Islamophobia and Latin can only win back so many votes. > > When did Corbyn offer Scottish independence as Boris would offer hard Brexit? > > In any case if the Brexit Party surge follows on from the Euro elections it will take all parties down with it, exactly as the SNP did in 2015. Leavers will surge to the Brexit Party exactly as Nationalists surged to the SNP with the Remain vote split between the main parties as the Unionist vote was and under FPTP that will mean seats falling to the Brexit Party like skittles
The Brexit Nigel Party isn't the only one surging. At the moment, the Lib Dems seem to be heading for much improved results.
There are similarities and differences with Scotland. But the central point remains: we shouldn't oversimplify the causes of or solutions to a precipitous decline in one party. A change of leader might be necessary but nowhere near sufficient. I suspect Johnson might turn out to be a lot shorter of sufficient than others think.
> @logical_song said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > > @TheJezziah said: > > > > > Aren't these pretty similar to last YouGov figures... or does everyone adjust to the last poll out and everyone is now shocked because it is different to the ComRes poll? > > > > > > > > The changes with the last YouGov are, > > > > TBP +3 > > > > LDs +2 > > > > LAB -2 > > > > GRN +1 > > > > CON -2 > > > > CUK nc > > > > UKP nc > > > > So I think that are changes worth noting on, particularly as they exaggerate the difference compared to some other polls. > > > > Ahh cheers, TBP is decent but the rest are within (usual) margin of error. They are changes admittedly but not particularly shocking when taking into account YouGov's last poll. > > > > Be interested to see how the pollsters do, will we be getting polls on Wednesday and then nothing allowed on Thursday? > > Aren't they all within the margin of error (3%). TBP only one point different to the LD, Lab and Con changes.
Yes, they are individually within MoE, but the fact there is a pattern (every party with a clear position gaining at the expense of the fudge and mudgers) does reduce the probability that the changes are just random sampling variation.
> @ydoethur said: > I acknowledge what you're saying and agree to some extent. But the closeness of the result helps us see whether the odds were off. If every MP bar one votes for Johnson and the membership elect him with 95% of the vote, the 33% implied chance was probably wrong in favour of the forum. > If he stumbles onto the ballot by a single vote and scrapes home on 51%, the certainty on here will look like bullet-dodging hubris. > Both of the above scenarios have Johnson winning but in ways that give different conclusions in terms of the surity of the predictors and bettors. > > If every MP bar one votes for Johnson, there would be no other candidates. You have to have at least three for an alternative candidate.
I did not know that so thanks. It doesn't change my point though. If it's a landslide, X. If it's a photo finish, Y. Even if the result is the same.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > On the subject of British Steel, therin lies the real problems of globalisation causing discontent in Middlesborough and Ohio. > > > > > > Well, the fundamental issue is that we have neither indigenous cheap energy nor domestic iron ore. > > > > > > That doesn't mean there isn't an opportunity for a steel industry: but it will have to be in higher value added steels, and not in ones for who 90% of the costs are imported raw materials. > > > > That is simply untrue. The UK has very large reserves of Iron Ore. But just like coal in a globalised market it is cheaper to import it from overseas than to mine our own. Moreover over 90% of steel is recycled and the vast majority of steel that Tata uses comes from recycling. > > > > > > > > I should have said "cheap iron ore", you re absolutely right that we do have significant reserves. > > But forcing a British steel companies to buy iron ore at an above world market price, would make them uncompetitive. > >
WTO terms will not resolve the issues of South Wales or Northern Coalfield areas. It is not the EU that is the villain here.
Steep protective tarriffs incoming for the British Trump.
If Gove han't knifed Boris, we would have been three years ahead of the curve.....
You could be right. Boris might have done a reverse ferret and discovered 18 months ago that he really, really wanted us to stay in the EU. After all, he's betrayed everyone else who's trusted him - it would be odd indeed if he didn't betray those who think he's a a committed Brexiteer.
That is the ray of hope for the party and country; if he wants to grasp the opportunity, he needs to be a bit more specific about one-nation Conservatism than he has been so far. Getting Hammond, Rudd, Clark and Gauke on his side might convince us.
Boris is totally untrustworthy in every single way.
That's not quite fair. You can 100% trust him to make a fool of himself.
> @brendan16 said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > Sunday, someone said at 10pm. > > The results cannot be made public until 10pm Sunday under EU law when all polls will have closed across the EU - but verification and counting of the votes at local authority level will be done before then in the UK. So its simply then a matter of adding them up at a regional level and allocating seats won. So it does happen quite quickly although it only takes one slow council to delay the results - the BBC results show for example is due to end at 3am compared to 6am for the local elections. > > Most countries vote on Sunday but in line with tradition the UK and the Netherlands vote tomorrow and Ireland on Friday with Malta, Latvia and Slovakia voting on Saturday. The Czechs uniquely get the entire weekend to vote! > >
Verification is happening here in South Lakeland on Thursday night. COUNTING cannot begin until Sunday evening. Interestingly the verification is being done face down, unlike a normal election to make it difficult to count the 25s. Obviously we cannot discuss anything gleened on Thursday evening.
The stupidity of Therea never ceases to amaze. It looked to me that there was some drop off of interest in the Euro elections, could have cost Farage 2 or 3 seats. So what does Theresa do - ensure a suite of headlines to galvanize the Brexit voters !
> @DoubleD said: > > @Dadge said: > > > @KentRising said: > > > > @RobD said: > > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/1130972569413267457?s=21 > > > > > > > > TBP 37%? Can they hit 40 before Thursday? > > > > > > To quote the blessed Kevin of Keegan, I'd love it absolutely love it if the BP polled that but I think it's going to be low 30s at best, is my hunch. > > > > Yes, there is quite a bit of inertia in our voting habits, despite the current mayhem. I think it'll be more like TBP 34, Lab 18, LD 15, Con 11, Green 10. And the Tiggers are more likely to get 2% than 4%. > > I agree. All down to likelihood to vote. I think, beyond Tory suicide strategy, Lab's failure will be the big talking point.
I suspect because of differential voting TBP will be up on this, 36 - 38% and the others will be down. LD are overstated because they are the polite answer re Cleggasm. Also, when it comes to seats TBP will prove to have its vote very efficiently distributed - vide the Donald and that will give them 3 or 4 seats above their fair %age share.
The probability that Boris would turn out to be another Brown - having spent his entire life since childhood wanting the job, he won’t have a clue what to do with it - seems high.
Just hope the Tory MPs haven’t lost their senses entirely. Although evidence isn’t encouraging right now.
> @eristdoof said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > Good move today I think by May > > > > > > LOL! She's being subjected to the most brutal set of newspaper headlines we've seen for any PM since El Gord, her parliamentary party is in total uproar, her party in the country is in meltdown and heading for its worst defeat in its 200 year history... And there's no sign anyone in the Labour party has shifted their position in favour of her deal anyway... > > > > > > And you think Theresa's playing a blinder!!! > > > > > > *NURSE* > > > > I do, her position of vote for her Deal then vote for a referendum gives Labour MPs from Leave seats a get out clause, they can vote for Brexit and the Deal to appease their constituents and reduce the BP threat then vote for a referendum to appease their membership. > > > > This is a leaver-tory projecting his/her opinion onto Labour MPs. It is certainly not how a Labour MP is going to think. >
> @IanB2 said: > Free Money alert: BFE Tory MEPs, “nine or less” (fewer) at 1.16. > > On latest polls they will be lucky to get any. Nine is an impossibility. Fill your boots...
There are other polls than YouGov and ComRes. It’s not free money.
Arguably you get better value by selling the Conservatives on Sporting Index. The market is suspended now but when it went down you could sell at something like 6.8.
As multiple posters have said all these elections will do is show how polarised the country is. Headline writers will write whatever aligns with their views and no one will back down.
That's assuming the polls are close of course...
The last 4 have a narrow lead for BXP+UKIP over LD+GREEN+CUK+SNP+PLAID
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @IanB2 said: > > Free Money alert: BFE Tory MEPs, “nine or less” (fewer) at 1.16. > > > > On latest polls they will be lucky to get any. Nine is an impossibility. Fill your boots... > > There are other polls than YouGov and ComRes. It’s not free money. > > Arguably you get better value by selling the Conservatives on Sporting Index. The market is suspended now but when it went down you could sell at something like 6.8.
> @Pulpstar said: > Johnson is the lead candidate... yet he's twice as likely not to win as he is to win. > > Doesn't tally with the aura of inevitability around him on fora like this. > > Suggests the prognostications of nerds like us is out of sync with those who put their money where there mouths are. > > > > Will be interesting to see who's right. > > There are lots of us BTL with red numbers against Boris in our ledgers
Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage are my two big reds on the market for next Prime Minister. I’m more likely to sell Boris further than to close out.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @IanB2 said: > > Free Money alert: BFE Tory MEPs, “nine or less” (fewer) at 1.16. > > > > On latest polls they will be lucky to get any. Nine is an impossibility. Fill your boots... > > There are other polls than YouGov and ComRes. It’s not free money. > > Arguably you get better value by selling the Conservatives on Sporting Index. The market is suspended now but when it went down you could sell at something like 6.8.
There is still the donkey in a blue rosette vote, and postal votes have gone in. I reckon Tories in mid to low teens.
A PB prediction thread would be interesting. Is NoJam still possible?
> @IanB2 said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > Free Money alert: BFE Tory MEPs, “nine or less” (fewer) at 1.16. > > > > > > On latest polls they will be lucky to get any. Nine is an impossibility. Fill your boots... > > > > There are other polls than YouGov and ComRes. It’s not free money. > > > > Arguably you get better value by selling the Conservatives on Sporting Index. The market is suspended now but when it went down you could sell at something like 6.8. > > No polls that would support nine seats?
The Conservatives could get nine seats on as little as 13 or 14%, depending how their vote is distributed. They seem to have the advantage of being relatively stronger in larger regions.
But to be clear, I sold the Conservatives at 7.2 and I’m expecting to get a payout.
> @TheJezziah said: > Not a fan of all the pictures chosen of May on the front pages, no need for it and it comes across as bullying. > > I wonder how good some of those involved in choosing the picture would look in the same situation.
That's right. EVERYONE can look bad if you photograph them often enough for long enough and pick the worst pictures. And I wonder if they'd do it if the PM was a man.
> @Pulpstar said: > Johnson is the lead candidate... yet he's twice as likely not to win as he is to win. > > Doesn't tally with the aura of inevitability around him on fora like this. > > Suggests the prognostications of nerds like us is out of sync with those who put their money where there mouths are. > > > > Will be interesting to see who's right. > > There are lots of us BTL with red numbers against Boris in our ledgers
Doubtless. But you aren't as vocal. The way the conversations tend to pan out revolve around the consequences of Boris's inevitable ascent. The betting price is the anchor to reality, I believe: he's likeliest not to win.
> @NickPalmer said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > Not a fan of all the pictures chosen of May on the front pages, no need for it and it comes across as bullying. > > > > I wonder how good some of those involved in choosing the picture would look in the same situation. > > That's right. EVERYONE can look bad if you photograph them often enough for long enough and pick the worst pictures. And I wonder if they'd do it if the PM was a man.
Were you abroad during the Brown years?
Edit/ btw I assume you’re now voting LibDem as the best way to beat the BXP?
> Not a fan of all the pictures chosen of May on the front pages, no need for it and it comes across as bullying.
>
> I wonder how good some of those involved in choosing the picture would look in the same situation.
That's right. EVERYONE can look bad if you photograph them often enough for long enough and pick the worst pictures. And I wonder if they'd do it if the PM was a man.
They did it to Brown often enough. That was fish in a barrel stuff though as he looked absolutely radged at least 80% of the time.
> Aren't they all within the margin of error (3%). TBP only one point different to the LD, Lab and Con changes.
I think that's a wrong-headed way to look at the poll.
Consider polls where the first poll puts two parties level at 30-30. Four 'margin of error' poll changes of +/-2 later that could be 38-22. In the context of this YouGov it's then notable that it is record poll shares all round.
Secondly, the simplistic calculation of a margin of error for this poll would give a value of +/-1.6% but that is for a poll share of 50%. The margin of error would be smaller for a reported poll share of around 10% (like the Conservative share) where the margin of error would be 3/5ths, so just under 1%.
Thirdly, the calculation of a margin of error in this way relies on the relatively small sample being randomly selected from a larger population, but with quotas and weighting this bears only a passing resemblance to how a poll is presently put together. It might be more accurate to consider a poll to be a composite of many separate polls, e.g. a poll of young men, old women, old men who read the Express, etc, and that would change the margin of error calculation, but I'm not sure how.
> > Not a fan of all the pictures chosen of May on the front pages, no need for it and it comes across as bullying.
> >
> > I wonder how good some of those involved in choosing the picture would look in the same situation.
>
> That's right. EVERYONE can look bad if you photograph them often enough for long enough and pick the worst pictures. And I wonder if they'd do it if the PM was a man.
Were you abroad during the Brown years?
Edit/ btw I assume you’re now voting LibDem as the best way to beat the BXP?
Unless we have reason to believe YouGov is more accurate than other pollsters that would counter productive...
The "others" include independents (there are two standing in Scotland) and smaller/local/single issue parties such as English Democrats, Yorkshire Party and Animal Welfare. I don't think Lord Buckethead ended up standing.
> @Dura_Ace said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > > Not a fan of all the pictures chosen of May on the front pages, no need for it and it comes across as bullying. > > > > > > I wonder how good some of those involved in choosing the picture would look in the same situation. > > > > That's right. EVERYONE can look bad if you photograph them often enough for long enough and pick the worst pictures. And I wonder if they'd do it if the PM was a man. > > They did it to Brown often enough. That was fish in a barrel stuff though as he looked absolutely radged at least 80% of the time.
Brown is half blind. It shows in photographs. The original post is spot on. It's bullying, underhand, and wrapped in plausible deniability.
> @Scrapheap_as_was said: > With the main parties redundant for tomorrow, i shall be lending my vote to the yellow peril... > > that it should come to this...
There should be a very large number of hitherto unlikely LibDem voters tomorrow, so you will be in if not good, then widely mixed company.
> @Nigelb said: > > @Scrapheap_as_was said: > > With the main parties redundant for tomorrow, i shall be lending my vote to the yellow peril... > > > > that it should come to this... > > There should be a very large number of hitherto unlikely LibDem voters tomorrow, so you will be in if not good, then widely mixed company. >
> @Nigelb said: > > @Scrapheap_as_was said: > > With the main parties redundant for tomorrow, i shall be lending my vote to the yellow peril... > > > > that it should come to this... > > There should be a very large number of hitherto unlikely LibDem voters tomorrow, so you will be in if not good, then widely mixed company. >
Indeed... As the very next post suggests with cashman leaving Labour to vote for the peril too....
> @SquareRoot said: > > @Nigelb said: > > > @Scrapheap_as_was said: > > > With the main parties redundant for tomorrow, i shall be lending my vote to the yellow peril... > > > > > > that it should come to this... > > > > There should be a very large number of hitherto unlikely LibDem voters tomorrow, so you will be in if not good, then widely mixed company. > > > > +1
in fact +2 as my wife will be doing precisely the same.
> @TheJezziah said: > > @NickPalmer said: > > > > @TheJezziah said: > > > > Not a fan of all the pictures chosen of May on the front pages, no need for it and it comes across as bullying. > > > > > > > > I wonder how good some of those involved in choosing the picture would look in the same situation. > > > > > > That's right. EVERYONE can look bad if you photograph them often enough for long enough and pick the worst pictures. And I wonder if they'd do it if the PM was a man. > > > > Were you abroad during the Brown years? > > > > Edit/ btw I assume you’re now voting LibDem as the best way to beat the BXP? > > Unless we have reason to believe YouGov is more accurate than other pollsters that would counter productive...
In his South East region the LDs are now sure to be well ahead of Labour even allowing for a lot of MoE
I note finished goods factory stocks are at their highest level since 2009. Orders aren’t. The steel plant is not going to be the only casualty of Brexit.
> > > Not a fan of all the pictures chosen of May on the front pages, no need for it and it comes across as bullying.
>
> > >
>
> > > I wonder how good some of those involved in choosing the picture would look in the same situation.
>
> >
>
> > That's right. EVERYONE can look bad if you photograph them often enough for long enough and pick the worst pictures. And I wonder if they'd do it if the PM was a man.
>
>
>
> Were you abroad during the Brown years?
>
>
>
> Edit/ btw I assume you’re now voting LibDem as the best way to beat the BXP?
>
> Unless we have reason to believe YouGov is more accurate than other pollsters that would counter productive...
In his South East region the LDs are now sure to be well ahead of Labour even allowing for a lot of MoE
I assumed you meant in the whole UK.
Thinking about it if beating the Brexit party is the priority then Labour is the only sensible vote. If you believe any of the pollsters could be right then under some pollsters it is close enough that Labour could win. The YouGov poll makes it look like nobody buy the Brexit party can win so it is hopeless anyway.
So the sensible vote on balance, unless you have reason to trust YouGov other over other polling companies is Labour if the priority is beating the Brexit party.
Can't speak for beating them in individual regions though.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @logical_song said: > > > Aren't they all within the margin of error (3%). TBP only one point different to the LD, Lab and Con changes. > > I think that's a wrong-headed way to look at the poll. > > Consider polls where the first poll puts two parties level at 30-30. Four 'margin of error' poll changes of +/-2 later that could be 38-22. In the context of this YouGov it's then notable that it is record poll shares all round. > > Secondly, the simplistic calculation of a margin of error for this poll would give a value of +/-1.6% but that is for a poll share of 50%. The margin of error would be smaller for a reported poll share of around 10% (like the Conservative share) where the margin of error would be 3/5ths, so just under 1%. > > Thirdly, the calculation of a margin of error in this way relies on the relatively small sample being randomly selected from a larger population, but with quotas and weighting this bears only a passing resemblance to how a poll is presently put together. It might be more accurate to consider a poll to be a composite of many separate polls, e.g. a poll of young men, old women, old men who read the Express, etc, and that would change the margin of error calculation, but I'm not sure how.
Your 'secondly' argument seems to say that a 3% change in a larger figure would be comparable in significance to a 2% change in a smaller figure. In other words a 2% jump for the Lib Dems may be more significant than a 3% jump in the larger figure for the BP. My argument was that the poster had drawn attention to a 3% jump in BP as being significant and played down 2% changes to Labour, Tory and LibDem. So it looks like you're, partially at least, agreeing with me.
She is being horribly ridiculed, and I feel sorry for her. I don’t see what more she could have done. The referendum was meant to be about the public not MPs, none of them should ever have considered not voting for the WA.
> @TheJezziah said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > > > @NickPalmer said: > > > > > > > > @TheJezziah said: > > > > > > > > Not a fan of all the pictures chosen of May on the front pages, no need for it and it comes across as bullying. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I wonder how good some of those involved in choosing the picture would look in the same situation. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > That's right. EVERYONE can look bad if you photograph them often enough for long enough and pick the worst pictures. And I wonder if they'd do it if the PM was a man. > > > > > > > > > > > > Were you abroad during the Brown years? > > > > > > > > > > > > Edit/ btw I assume you’re now voting LibDem as the best way to beat the BXP? > > > > > > Unless we have reason to believe YouGov is more accurate than other pollsters that would counter productive... > > > > In his South East region the LDs are now sure to be well ahead of Labour even allowing for a lot of MoE > > I assumed you meant in the whole UK. > > Thinking about it if beating the Brexit party is the priority then Labour is the only sensible vote. If you believe any of the pollsters could be right then under some pollsters it is close enough that Labour could win. The YouGov poll makes it look like nobody buy the Brexit party can win so it is hopeless anyway. > > So the sensible vote on balance, unless you have reason to trust one pollster over another is Labour if the priority is beating the Brexit party. > > Can't speak for beating them in individual regions though.
The only way Labour could have beaten the BP is if they had properly backed a second vote . Corbyn owns this whole sorry mess. A vote for Labour at the moment is a vote for Brexit. Many normal Labour voters like myself have had enough .
> @Nigelb said: > > @Scrapheap_as_was said: > > With the main parties redundant for tomorrow, i shall be lending my vote to the yellow peril... > > > > that it should come to this... > > There should be a very large number of hitherto unlikely LibDem voters tomorrow, so you will be in if not good, then widely mixed company. >
It could be a slippery slope for many Tories. Start of a habit. Political adultery.
Mr. Isam, it is ridiculous that they backed triggering Article 50 but won't actually choose any of the options.
There's no deal, May's deal, and remaining after all.
A lot of MPs are happy to rule out whatever they think unacceptable but unwilling to pick between the other two. It's all very well Hammond bleating about no deal, but given it seems impossible for May's deal to pass that means the only outcome he ought to support is remaining.
Does he? No.
Will the Commons actually vote for May's deal so they can get the referendum a majority seems to want? No.
Will they endorse no deal? No.
I'm not a May fan. She's a terrible PM. But the Commons collectively is scarcely any better. They wrested control away from May and have used it to to decide precisely nothing.
The only way Labour could have beaten the BP is if they had properly backed a second vote . Corbyn owns this whole sorry mess. A vote for Labour at the moment is a vote for Brexit. Many normal Labour voters like myself have had enough .
I feel like you might be having too much fun going crazy in the meantime too stop but I expect Labour conference will pass a motion for a referendum on any deal although the leadership already seems to be moving in that direction anyway.
Unless you expect Labour to sign up to a deal before conference then the party will be whipping for a referendum on anything else. I'm not saying you should be happy with Labour or not angry but practically unless Mays Deal somehow goes though I can't see how that deal will happen before conference. This isn't saying you should vote for Labour in the Euros (although I would prefer that) but you shouldn't worry too much about the party as a whole passing Brexit.
Some small number of MPs doing it is always a possibility but the Tories will have to come together on a deal for that to happen. Which also seems unlikely.
Maybe I am wrong but to me it looks like it is either a general election, a referendum or a Tory leader comes in and stays in power long enough to force no deal.
In the general election Labour would end up backing a referendum on any deal and they would try to stop no deal.
All roads seem to lead to Labour backing a referendum unless we are forced out with no deal by a Tory leader.
The fact he's trying to get the rules changed tells you he thinks he's doomed.
The Con party membership will implode if Boris is not on the final 2 (or 4).
So be it.
Changing the rules is for losers, why won't Boris respect democracy instead of trying to rig it?
Surely the people rigging democracy would be those making sure the likely choice of the electorate wasn’t on the ballot?
The rules for both main parties to ensure any leader has the support of sufficient numbers of MPs are there for a good reason. It's pathetic that people who would fall foul of the rule blame their weakness among MPs as the system being unfair, it is not meant to be a completely democratic exercise. Why even have MP nominations at that point, the Tory membership would probably elect Farage as their leader if they could.
It's like when people compare voting again in parliament with rerunning a referendum - there may be good arguments for the option people want, but the two situations are not actually comparable in scope or nature, and nor is equating the rules for leadership of a political party in a system which requires, in practice though not law, that said leader commands the confidence and support of the parliamentary party, with a presidential style election.
And moaning about the rules is a lame route to go down. If support of MPs is a requirement, and it is for good reason, then it is the job of the candidates to prove themselves worthy by overcoming that hurdle, not seek to bypass it because they think they cannot do that. That would instill confidence in their ability to lead MPs if they won, would it?
@HYUFD - Nandy and Kyle have said they won’t support it. Which 100 Labour MPs do you think will?
Nandy is proving to be very duplicitous. Makes noises that she might do thus it that, does not want this or that, but always on the key votes finds a reason to vote in a way which is leading toward remain.
> @TGOHF said: > Will May carry on as a backbencher ? Bye election ?
David Cameron, when Prime Minister, used to speak of his devotion to public service and how he wanted to serve as a backbencher after his premiership was over.
That lasted a full two months over the summer recess.
Comments
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Boris Johnson is overwhelmingly the Tory leader Labour activists fear most according to a new poll of Labour members, 40% more fear him than second placed Rory Stewart
> >
> > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7052673/Mays-cabinet-war-No-Deal-Andrea-Leadsom-says-Britain-leave-EU-October-31.html
>
> If polling like this continues beyond the Euros, which Tory Labour activists fear will be spectacularly irrelevant.
No it won't as all the polling suggests Brexit Party voters will surge back to the Tories under a Boris leadership and in any case Labour is also predicted to get its worst national voteshare since 1910 on Thursday too
> > @edmundintokyo said:
> > > @ah009 said:
> > > Johnson is the lead candidate... yet he's twice as likely not to win as he is to win.
> > > Doesn't tally with the aura of inevitability around him on fora like this.
> > > Suggests the prognostications of nerds like us is out of sync with those who put their money where there mouths are.
> > >
> > > Will be interesting to see who's right.
> >
> > I don't understand who you're arguing with - where are you seeing an aura of inevitability???
>
> I'm not arguing with anyone. Just detecting a sense in these BTLs that people here think Johnson is nailed on. Markets have him as a 1/3 shot. Feels like a mismatch and I'm interested to know who's right
If he makes the members ballot - that's where the doubt is.
> > @RobD said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/1130972569413267457?s=21
> >
> > TBP 37%?
>
> To quote the blessed Kevin of Keegan, I'd love it absolutely love it if the BP polled that but I think it's going to be low 30s at best, is my hunch.
Yes, there is quite a bit of inertia in our voting habits, despite the current mayhem. I think it'll be more like TBP 34, Lab 18, LD 15, Con 11, Green 10. And the Tiggers are more likely to get 2% than 4%.
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @edmundintokyo said:
> > > > @ah009 said:
> > > > Johnson is the lead candidate... yet he's twice as likely not to win as he is to win.
> > > > Doesn't tally with the aura of inevitability around him on fora like this.
> > > > Suggests the prognostications of nerds like us is out of sync with those who put their money where there mouths are.
> > > >
> > > > Will be interesting to see who's right.
> > >
> > > I don't understand who you're arguing with - where are you seeing an aura of inevitability???
> >
> > I'm not arguing with anyone. Just detecting a sense in these BTLs that people here think Johnson is nailed on. Markets have him as a 1/3 shot. Feels like a mismatch and I'm interested to know who's right
>
> If he makes the members ballot - that's where the doubt is.
Agreed. But the chatter on these boards doesn't take sufficient account of that, I think. Or the bettors are wrong.
What odds works you take on Johnson to finish in the top 2 after MPs' votes? I wouldn't back at evens.
> > @williamglenn said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > Boris Johnson is overwhelmingly the Tory leader Labour activists fear most according to a new poll of Labour members, 40% more fear him than second placed Rory Stewart
>
> > >
>
> > > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7052673/Mays-cabinet-war-No-Deal-Andrea-Leadsom-says-Britain-leave-EU-October-31.html
>
> >
>
> > If polling like this continues beyond the Euros, which Tory Labour activists fear will be spectacularly irrelevant.
>
>
>
> No it won't as all the polling suggests Brexit Party voters will surge back to the Tories under a Boris leadership and in any case Labour is also predicted to get its worst national voteshare since 1910 on Thursday too
>
> Only by 1 polling company it should be said, I understand the 20%+ scores from the other pollsters are better than something under Brown or another quite recent one?
Labour polled 15% in the 2009 Euro elections, YouGov now has Corbyn polling worse than that and that is the latest poll
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > Boris Johnson is overwhelmingly the Tory leader Labour activists fear most according to a new poll of Labour members, 40% more fear him than second placed Rory Stewart
> > >
> > > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7052673/Mays-cabinet-war-No-Deal-Andrea-Leadsom-says-Britain-leave-EU-October-31.html
> >
> > If polling like this continues beyond the Euros, which Tory Labour activists fear will be spectacularly irrelevant.
>
> No it won't as all the polling suggests Brexit Party voters will surge back to the Tories under a Boris leadership and in any case Labour is also predicted to get its worst national voteshare since 1910 on Thursday too
SNP voters were supposed to surge back to Labour after Corbyn came to power too.
I'm not sure what Johnson offers those who have abandoned the Conservatives. Islamophobia and Latin can only win back so many votes.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > Boris Johnson is overwhelmingly the Tory leader Labour activists fear most according to a new poll of Labour members, 40% more fear him than second placed Rory Stewart
> > > >
> > > > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7052673/Mays-cabinet-war-No-Deal-Andrea-Leadsom-says-Britain-leave-EU-October-31.html
> > >
> > > If polling like this continues beyond the Euros, which Tory Labour activists fear will be spectacularly irrelevant.
> >
> > No it won't as all the polling suggests Brexit Party voters will surge back to the Tories under a Boris leadership and in any case Labour is also predicted to get its worst national voteshare since 1910 on Thursday too
>
> SNP voters were supposed to surge back to Labour after Corbyn came to power too.
>
> I'm not sure what Johnson offers those who have abandoned the Conservatives. Islamophobia and Latin can only win back so many votes.
When did Corbyn offer Scottish independence as Boris would offer hard Brexit?
In any case if the Brexit Party surge follows on from the Euro elections it will take all parties down with it, exactly as the SNP did in 2015. Leavers will surge to the Brexit Party exactly as Nationalists surged to the SNP with the Remain vote split between the main parties as the Unionist vote was and under FPTP that will mean seats falling to the Brexit Party like skittles
https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1131004888773795841
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1131005712463794177
> Johnson is the lead candidate... yet he's twice as likely not to win as he is to win.
> Doesn't tally with the aura of inevitability around him on fora like this.
> Suggests the prognostications of nerds like us is out of sync with those who put their money where there mouths are.
>
> Will be interesting to see who's right.
No. You can't use one result to verify a betting price!
You can be a genuine 3:1 shot and still win, "538" had trump at 30% the day before the WH2016 election. Rolling a six is a 5:1 chance but it frequently occurs.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > Good move today I think by May
> >
> > LOL! She's being subjected to the most brutal set of newspaper headlines we've seen for any PM since El Gord, her parliamentary party is in total uproar, her party in the country is in meltdown and heading for its worst defeat in its 200 year history... And there's no sign anyone in the Labour party has shifted their position in favour of her deal anyway...
> >
> > And you think Theresa's playing a blinder!!!
> >
> > *NURSE*
>
> I do, her position of vote for her Deal then vote for a referendum gives Labour MPs from Leave seats a get out clause, they can vote for Brexit and the Deal to appease their constituents and reduce the BP threat then vote for a referendum to appease their membership.
>
This is a leaver-tory projecting his/her opinion onto Labour MPs. It is certainly not how a Labour MP is going to think.
> > @KentRising said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/1130972569413267457?s=21
> > >
> > > TBP 37%?
> >
> > To quote the blessed Kevin of Keegan, I'd love it absolutely love it if the BP polled that but I think it's going to be low 30s at best, is my hunch.
>
> Yes, there is quite a bit of inertia in our voting habits, despite the current mayhem. I think it'll be more like TBP 34, Lab 18, LD 15, Con 11, Green 10. And the Tiggers are more likely to get 2% than 4%.
I agree. All down to likelihood to vote. I think, beyond Tory suicide strategy, Lab's failure will be the big talking point.
> Letter from John Major to the Times:
>
> "The sheer folly of suspending Michael Heseltine from the Conservative whip defies both logic and belief."
>
> "Withdrawing the whip from such a man — on an issue of conscience — is an over-reaction that will encourage many moderate Conservatives to follow Michael’s example."
>
> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/times-letters-lord-heseltine-and-the-removal-of-the-whip-h0z6k2cg2
standard practice. Just because he is a leftie, he should not be protected.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > Letter from John Major to the Times:
> >
> > "The sheer folly of suspending Michael Heseltine from the Conservative whip defies both logic and belief."
> >
> > "Withdrawing the whip from such a man — on an issue of conscience — is an over-reaction that will encourage many moderate Conservatives to follow Michael’s example."
> >
> > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/times-letters-lord-heseltine-and-the-removal-of-the-whip-h0z6k2cg2
>
> standard practice. Just because he is a leftie, he should not be protected.
Where are all the expulsions for supporting Farage?
Mr. Eagles, I hope you're right that he doesn't make the final two.
Mr. D, quite. The idea a high profile member can vote the other way without sanction is an invitation for the behaviour to become common practice.
> > @Dadge said:
> > > @KentRising said:
> > > > @RobD said:
> > > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/1130972569413267457?s=21
> > > >
> > > > TBP 37%?
> > >
> > > To quote the blessed Kevin of Keegan, I'd love it absolutely love it if the BP polled that but I think it's going to be low 30s at best, is my hunch.
> >
> > Yes, there is quite a bit of inertia in our voting habits, despite the current mayhem. I think it'll be more like TBP 34, Lab 18, LD 15, Con 11, Green 10. And the Tiggers are more likely to get 2% than 4%.
>
> I agree. All down to likelihood to vote. I think, beyond Tory suicide strategy, Lab's failure will be the big talking point.
Twice in just a few weeks.
> > @ah009 said:
> > Johnson is the lead candidate... yet he's twice as likely not to win as he is to win.
> > Doesn't tally with the aura of inevitability around him on fora like this.
> > Suggests the prognostications of nerds like us is out of sync with those who put their money where there mouths are.
> >
> > Will be interesting to see who's right.
>
>
> No. You can't use one result to verify a betting price!
> You can be a genuine 3:1 shot and still win, "538" had trump at 30% the day before the WH2016 election. Rolling a six is a 5:1 chance but it frequently occurs.
I acknowledge what you're saying and agree to some extent. But the closeness of the result helps us see whether the odds were off. If every MP bar one votes for Johnson and the membership elect him with 95% of the vote, the 33% implied chance was probably wrong in favour of the forum.
If he stumbles onto the ballot by a single vote and scrapes home on 51%, the certainty on here will look like bullet-dodging hubris.
Both of the above scenarios have Johnson winning but in ways that give different conclusions in terms of the surity of the predictors and bettors.
> > @TheJezziah said:
>
> > Aren't these pretty similar to last YouGov figures... or does everyone adjust to the last poll out and everyone is now shocked because it is different to the ComRes poll?
>
>
>
> The changes with the last YouGov are,
>
> TBP +3
>
> LDs +2
>
> LAB -2
>
> GRN +1
>
> CON -2
>
> CUK nc
>
> UKP nc
>
> So I think that are changes worth noting on, particularly as they exaggerate the difference compared to some other polls.
>
> Ahh cheers, TBP is decent but the rest are within (usual) margin of error. They are changes admittedly but not particularly shocking when taking into account YouGov's last poll.
>
> Be interested to see how the pollsters do, will we be getting polls on Wednesday and then nothing allowed on Thursday?
Aren't they all within the margin of error (3%). TBP only one point different to the LD, Lab and Con changes.
Clear Remain: 39 (LD, Green, SNP, PC, CUK)
Clear Leave: 40 (Brexit and UKIP)
We're both doomed: 20 (Con and Lab)
As multiple posters have said all these elections will do is show how polarised the country is. Headline writers will write whatever aligns with their views and no one will back down.
That's assuming the polls are close of course...
I'm going to sling tiny sums (pence) on the Williams each way to be fastest in first practice at 3001 each (without boost, 3501 with), just in case it swings back.
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > Boris Johnson is overwhelmingly the Tory leader Labour activists fear most according to a new poll of Labour members, 40% more fear him than second placed Rory Stewart
> > > > >
> > > > > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7052673/Mays-cabinet-war-No-Deal-Andrea-Leadsom-says-Britain-leave-EU-October-31.html
> > > >
> > > > If polling like this continues beyond the Euros, which Tory Labour activists fear will be spectacularly irrelevant.
> > >
> > > No it won't as all the polling suggests Brexit Party voters will surge back to the Tories under a Boris leadership and in any case Labour is also predicted to get its worst national voteshare since 1910 on Thursday too
> >
> > SNP voters were supposed to surge back to Labour after Corbyn came to power too.
> >
> > I'm not sure what Johnson offers those who have abandoned the Conservatives. Islamophobia and Latin can only win back so many votes.
>
> When did Corbyn offer Scottish independence as Boris would offer hard Brexit?
>
> In any case if the Brexit Party surge follows on from the Euro elections it will take all parties down with it, exactly as the SNP did in 2015. Leavers will surge to the Brexit Party exactly as Nationalists surged to the SNP with the Remain vote split between the main parties as the Unionist vote was and under FPTP that will mean seats falling to the Brexit Party like skittles
The Brexit Nigel Party isn't the only one surging. At the moment, the Lib Dems seem to be heading for much improved results.
There are similarities and differences with Scotland. But the central point remains: we shouldn't oversimplify the causes of or solutions to a precipitous decline in one party. A change of leader might be necessary but nowhere near sufficient. I suspect Johnson might turn out to be a lot shorter of sufficient than others think.
> > @TheJezziah said:
> > > @TheJezziah said:
> >
> > > Aren't these pretty similar to last YouGov figures... or does everyone adjust to the last poll out and everyone is now shocked because it is different to the ComRes poll?
> >
> >
> >
> > The changes with the last YouGov are,
> >
> > TBP +3
> >
> > LDs +2
> >
> > LAB -2
> >
> > GRN +1
> >
> > CON -2
> >
> > CUK nc
> >
> > UKP nc
> >
> > So I think that are changes worth noting on, particularly as they exaggerate the difference compared to some other polls.
> >
> > Ahh cheers, TBP is decent but the rest are within (usual) margin of error. They are changes admittedly but not particularly shocking when taking into account YouGov's last poll.
> >
> > Be interested to see how the pollsters do, will we be getting polls on Wednesday and then nothing allowed on Thursday?
>
> Aren't they all within the margin of error (3%). TBP only one point different to the LD, Lab and Con changes.
Yes, they are individually within MoE, but the fact there is a pattern (every party with a clear position gaining at the expense of the fudge and mudgers) does reduce the probability that the changes are just random sampling variation.
> I acknowledge what you're saying and agree to some extent. But the closeness of the result helps us see whether the odds were off. If every MP bar one votes for Johnson and the membership elect him with 95% of the vote, the 33% implied chance was probably wrong in favour of the forum.
> If he stumbles onto the ballot by a single vote and scrapes home on 51%, the certainty on here will look like bullet-dodging hubris.
> Both of the above scenarios have Johnson winning but in ways that give different conclusions in terms of the surity of the predictors and bettors.
>
> If every MP bar one votes for Johnson, there would be no other candidates. You have to have at least three for an alternative candidate.
I did not know that so thanks.
It doesn't change my point though. If it's a landslide, X. If it's a photo finish, Y. Even if the result is the same.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > On the subject of British Steel, therin lies the real problems of globalisation causing discontent in Middlesborough and Ohio.
> > >
> > > Well, the fundamental issue is that we have neither indigenous cheap energy nor domestic iron ore.
> > >
> > > That doesn't mean there isn't an opportunity for a steel industry: but it will have to be in higher value added steels, and not in ones for who 90% of the costs are imported raw materials.
> >
> > That is simply untrue. The UK has very large reserves of Iron Ore. But just like coal in a globalised market it is cheaper to import it from overseas than to mine our own. Moreover over 90% of steel is recycled and the vast majority of steel that Tata uses comes from recycling.
> >
> >
> >
>
> I should have said "cheap iron ore", you re absolutely right that we do have significant reserves.
>
> But forcing a British steel companies to buy iron ore at an above world market price, would make them uncompetitive.
>
>
WTO terms will not resolve the issues of South Wales or Northern Coalfield areas. It is not the EU that is the villain here.
Steep protective tarriffs incoming for the British Trump.
Absolutey unbelievable. Not a great day to be a pragmatic Tory. Or a pragmatic anything else for that matter.
I fear this time the anti-Mayers will get their way. What a shock it will be when another grey soft Brexiter is installed.
> > @TheJezziah said:
> > Sunday, someone said at 10pm.
>
> The results cannot be made public until 10pm Sunday under EU law when all polls will have closed across the EU - but verification and counting of the votes at local authority level will be done before then in the UK. So its simply then a matter of adding them up at a regional level and allocating seats won. So it does happen quite quickly although it only takes one slow council to delay the results - the BBC results show for example is due to end at 3am compared to 6am for the local elections.
>
> Most countries vote on Sunday but in line with tradition the UK and the Netherlands vote tomorrow and Ireland on Friday with Malta, Latvia and Slovakia voting on Saturday. The Czechs uniquely get the entire weekend to vote!
>
>
Verification is happening here in South Lakeland on Thursday night. COUNTING cannot begin until Sunday evening. Interestingly the verification is being done face down, unlike a normal election to make it difficult to count the 25s. Obviously we cannot discuss anything gleened on Thursday evening.
The stupidity of Therea never ceases to amaze. It looked to me that there was some drop off of interest in the Euro elections, could have cost Farage 2 or 3 seats. So what does Theresa do - ensure a suite of headlines to galvanize the Brexit voters !
On latest polls they will be lucky to get any. Nine is an impossibility. Fill your boots...
Goodnight Vienna....
> So why the fuss if Boris becomes leader of the Uks fifth most popular party ?
>
> Goodnight Vienna....
Because under FPTP it could split the fruitcake vote and let the other one of the Big Two in.
Vote Tory, get Swinson.
> > @Dadge said:
> > > @KentRising said:
> > > > @RobD said:
> > > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/1130972569413267457?s=21
> > > >
> > > > TBP 37%?
> > >
> > > To quote the blessed Kevin of Keegan, I'd love it absolutely love it if the BP polled that but I think it's going to be low 30s at best, is my hunch.
> >
> > Yes, there is quite a bit of inertia in our voting habits, despite the current mayhem. I think it'll be more like TBP 34, Lab 18, LD 15, Con 11, Green 10. And the Tiggers are more likely to get 2% than 4%.
>
> I agree. All down to likelihood to vote. I think, beyond Tory suicide strategy, Lab's failure will be the big talking point.
I suspect because of differential voting TBP will be up on this, 36 - 38% and the others will be down. LD are overstated because they are the polite answer re Cleggasm. Also, when it comes to seats TBP will prove to have its vote very efficiently distributed - vide the Donald and that will give them 3 or 4 seats above their fair %age share.
Just hope the Tory MPs haven’t lost their senses entirely. Although evidence isn’t encouraging right now.
> https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1131004147971444737
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1131004888773795841
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1131005365322158080
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1131005712463794177
Sounds like a pretty good endorsement to me.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > Good move today I think by May
> > >
> > > LOL! She's being subjected to the most brutal set of newspaper headlines we've seen for any PM since El Gord, her parliamentary party is in total uproar, her party in the country is in meltdown and heading for its worst defeat in its 200 year history... And there's no sign anyone in the Labour party has shifted their position in favour of her deal anyway...
> > >
> > > And you think Theresa's playing a blinder!!!
> > >
> > > *NURSE*
> >
> > I do, her position of vote for her Deal then vote for a referendum gives Labour MPs from Leave seats a get out clause, they can vote for Brexit and the Deal to appease their constituents and reduce the BP threat then vote for a referendum to appease their membership.
> >
>
> This is a leaver-tory projecting his/her opinion onto Labour MPs. It is certainly not how a Labour MP is going to think.
>
Dead right
https://youtu.be/trE_bkWUFsE
> Free Money alert: BFE Tory MEPs, “nine or less” (fewer) at 1.16.
>
> On latest polls they will be lucky to get any. Nine is an impossibility. Fill your boots...
There are other polls than YouGov and ComRes. It’s not free money.
Arguably you get better value by selling the Conservatives on Sporting Index. The market is suspended now but when it went down you could sell at something like 6.8.
Who are the ‘others’ though?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom
> > @IanB2 said:
> > Free Money alert: BFE Tory MEPs, “nine or less” (fewer) at 1.16.
> >
> > On latest polls they will be lucky to get any. Nine is an impossibility. Fill your boots...
>
> There are other polls than YouGov and ComRes. It’s not free money.
>
> Arguably you get better value by selling the Conservatives on Sporting Index. The market is suspended now but when it went down you could sell at something like 6.8.
No polls that would support nine seats?
> Johnson is the lead candidate... yet he's twice as likely not to win as he is to win.
>
> Doesn't tally with the aura of inevitability around him on fora like this.
>
> Suggests the prognostications of nerds like us is out of sync with those who put their money where there mouths are.
>
>
>
> Will be interesting to see who's right.
>
> There are lots of us BTL with red numbers against Boris in our ledgers
Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage are my two big reds on the market for next Prime Minister. I’m more likely to sell Boris further than to close out.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > Free Money alert: BFE Tory MEPs, “nine or less” (fewer) at 1.16.
> >
> > On latest polls they will be lucky to get any. Nine is an impossibility. Fill your boots...
>
> There are other polls than YouGov and ComRes. It’s not free money.
>
> Arguably you get better value by selling the Conservatives on Sporting Index. The market is suspended now but when it went down you could sell at something like 6.8.
There is still the donkey in a blue rosette vote, and postal votes have gone in. I reckon Tories in mid to low teens.
A PB prediction thread would be interesting. Is NoJam still possible?
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > Free Money alert: BFE Tory MEPs, “nine or less” (fewer) at 1.16.
> > >
> > > On latest polls they will be lucky to get any. Nine is an impossibility. Fill your boots...
> >
> > There are other polls than YouGov and ComRes. It’s not free money.
> >
> > Arguably you get better value by selling the Conservatives on Sporting Index. The market is suspended now but when it went down you could sell at something like 6.8.
>
> No polls that would support nine seats?
The Conservatives could get nine seats on as little as 13 or 14%, depending how their vote is distributed. They seem to have the advantage of being relatively stronger in larger regions.
But to be clear, I sold the Conservatives at 7.2 and I’m expecting to get a payout.
> Not a fan of all the pictures chosen of May on the front pages, no need for it and it comes across as bullying.
>
> I wonder how good some of those involved in choosing the picture would look in the same situation.
That's right. EVERYONE can look bad if you photograph them often enough for long enough and pick the worst pictures. And I wonder if they'd do it if the PM was a man.
> Johnson is the lead candidate... yet he's twice as likely not to win as he is to win.
>
> Doesn't tally with the aura of inevitability around him on fora like this.
>
> Suggests the prognostications of nerds like us is out of sync with those who put their money where there mouths are.
>
>
>
> Will be interesting to see who's right.
>
> There are lots of us BTL with red numbers against Boris in our ledgers
Doubtless. But you aren't as vocal. The way the conversations tend to pan out revolve around the consequences of Boris's inevitable ascent. The betting price is the anchor to reality, I believe: he's likeliest not to win.
https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1131086706847944704
> Backed Lib Dems to get more votes than Labour at evens, with Ladbrokes.
Evens for that? Back to the 80's!
His character and record haven’t been taken to task yet and he’s totally unfit to be PM.
He’d make May look good.
> > @TheJezziah said:
> > Not a fan of all the pictures chosen of May on the front pages, no need for it and it comes across as bullying.
> >
> > I wonder how good some of those involved in choosing the picture would look in the same situation.
>
> That's right. EVERYONE can look bad if you photograph them often enough for long enough and pick the worst pictures. And I wonder if they'd do it if the PM was a man.
Were you abroad during the Brown years?
Edit/ btw I assume you’re now voting LibDem as the best way to beat the BXP?
> Aren't they all within the margin of error (3%). TBP only one point different to the LD, Lab and Con changes.
I think that's a wrong-headed way to look at the poll.
Consider polls where the first poll puts two parties level at 30-30. Four 'margin of error' poll changes of +/-2 later that could be 38-22. In the context of this YouGov it's then notable that it is record poll shares all round.
Secondly, the simplistic calculation of a margin of error for this poll would give a value of +/-1.6% but that is for a poll share of 50%. The margin of error would be smaller for a reported poll share of around 10% (like the Conservative share) where the margin of error would be 3/5ths, so just under 1%.
Thirdly, the calculation of a margin of error in this way relies on the relatively small sample being randomly selected from a larger population, but with quotas and weighting this bears only a passing resemblance to how a poll is presently put together. It might be more accurate to consider a poll to be a composite of many separate polls, e.g. a poll of young men, old women, old men who read the Express, etc, and that would change the margin of error calculation, but I'm not sure how.
He needs to get out of the M25 more.
that it should come to this...
> The last 4 have a narrow lead for BXP+UKIP over LD+GREEN+CUK+SNP+PLAID
>
> Who are the ‘others’ though?
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom
The "others" include independents (there are two standing in Scotland) and smaller/local/single issue parties such as English Democrats, Yorkshire Party and Animal Welfare. I don't think Lord Buckethead ended up standing.
> > @TheJezziah said:
>
> > Not a fan of all the pictures chosen of May on the front pages, no need for it and it comes across as bullying.
>
> >
>
> > I wonder how good some of those involved in choosing the picture would look in the same situation.
>
>
>
> That's right. EVERYONE can look bad if you photograph them often enough for long enough and pick the worst pictures. And I wonder if they'd do it if the PM was a man.
>
> They did it to Brown often enough. That was fish in a barrel stuff though as he looked absolutely radged at least 80% of the time.
Brown is half blind. It shows in photographs.
The original post is spot on. It's bullying, underhand, and wrapped in plausible deniability.
And so much for the constant whining by Labour MPs in Leave seats . The BP is taking just 13% of their voters .
A lot of attention seems to be on the Tories but really Labours polling is lamentable,
> https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1131091732177784838
The Private on parade?
> With the main parties redundant for tomorrow, i shall be lending my vote to the yellow peril...
>
> that it should come to this...
There should be a very large number of hitherto unlikely LibDem voters tomorrow, so you will be in if not good, then widely mixed company.
https://twitter.com/sam_bambs/status/1130805191354331141
> > @Scrapheap_as_was said:
> > With the main parties redundant for tomorrow, i shall be lending my vote to the yellow peril...
> >
> > that it should come to this...
>
> There should be a very large number of hitherto unlikely LibDem voters tomorrow, so you will be in if not good, then widely mixed company.
>
+1
> > @Scrapheap_as_was said:
> > With the main parties redundant for tomorrow, i shall be lending my vote to the yellow peril...
> >
> > that it should come to this...
>
> There should be a very large number of hitherto unlikely LibDem voters tomorrow, so you will be in if not good, then widely mixed company.
>
Indeed... As the very next post suggests with cashman leaving Labour to vote for the peril too....
https://twitter.com/chrisdeerin/status/1130837414908432384?s=19
> > @Nigelb said:
> > > @Scrapheap_as_was said:
> > > With the main parties redundant for tomorrow, i shall be lending my vote to the yellow peril...
> > >
> > > that it should come to this...
> >
> > There should be a very large number of hitherto unlikely LibDem voters tomorrow, so you will be in if not good, then widely mixed company.
> >
>
> +1
in fact +2 as my wife will be doing precisely the same.
> > @NickPalmer said:
>
> > > @TheJezziah said:
>
> > > Not a fan of all the pictures chosen of May on the front pages, no need for it and it comes across as bullying.
>
> > >
>
> > > I wonder how good some of those involved in choosing the picture would look in the same situation.
>
> >
>
> > That's right. EVERYONE can look bad if you photograph them often enough for long enough and pick the worst pictures. And I wonder if they'd do it if the PM was a man.
>
>
>
> Were you abroad during the Brown years?
>
>
>
> Edit/ btw I assume you’re now voting LibDem as the best way to beat the BXP?
>
> Unless we have reason to believe YouGov is more accurate than other pollsters that would counter productive...
In his South East region the LDs are now sure to be well ahead of Labour even allowing for a lot of MoE
The steel plant is not going to be the only casualty of Brexit.
> https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1131091338584363008
Maybe he just saw the YouGov poll!
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1131091338584363008
>
> Maybe he just saw the YouGov poll!
>
>
As far as the talks are concerned, Labour got what it wanted and needed as an outcome. That’s one thing you can’t fault them for.
Bumbling on will cost us. Thanks Mrs May and the civil service.
Thinking about it if beating the Brexit party is the priority then Labour is the only sensible vote. If you believe any of the pollsters could be right then under some pollsters it is close enough that Labour could win. The YouGov poll makes it look like nobody buy the Brexit party can win so it is hopeless anyway.
So the sensible vote on balance, unless you have reason to trust YouGov other over other polling companies is Labour if the priority is beating the Brexit party.
Can't speak for beating them in individual regions though.
> > @logical_song said:
>
> > Aren't they all within the margin of error (3%). TBP only one point different to the LD, Lab and Con changes.
>
> I think that's a wrong-headed way to look at the poll.
>
> Consider polls where the first poll puts two parties level at 30-30. Four 'margin of error' poll changes of +/-2 later that could be 38-22. In the context of this YouGov it's then notable that it is record poll shares all round.
>
> Secondly, the simplistic calculation of a margin of error for this poll would give a value of +/-1.6% but that is for a poll share of 50%. The margin of error would be smaller for a reported poll share of around 10% (like the Conservative share) where the margin of error would be 3/5ths, so just under 1%.
>
> Thirdly, the calculation of a margin of error in this way relies on the relatively small sample being randomly selected from a larger population, but with quotas and weighting this bears only a passing resemblance to how a poll is presently put together. It might be more accurate to consider a poll to be a composite of many separate polls, e.g. a poll of young men, old women, old men who read the Express, etc, and that would change the margin of error calculation, but I'm not sure how.
Your 'secondly' argument seems to say that a 3% change in a larger figure would be comparable in significance to a 2% change in a smaller figure. In other words a 2% jump for the Lib Dems may be more significant than a 3% jump in the larger figure for the BP.
My argument was that the poster had drawn attention to a 3% jump in BP as being significant and played down 2% changes to Labour, Tory and LibDem.
So it looks like you're, partially at least, agreeing with me.
Oh yeah. Another classic media fable. Along with RuthForFM and Gordon Brown’s latest federalism wheez.
> > @TheJezziah said:
>
> > > @NickPalmer said:
>
> >
>
> > > > @TheJezziah said:
>
> >
>
> > > > Not a fan of all the pictures chosen of May on the front pages, no need for it and it comes across as bullying.
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > > > I wonder how good some of those involved in choosing the picture would look in the same situation.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > That's right. EVERYONE can look bad if you photograph them often enough for long enough and pick the worst pictures. And I wonder if they'd do it if the PM was a man.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Were you abroad during the Brown years?
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Edit/ btw I assume you’re now voting LibDem as the best way to beat the BXP?
>
> >
>
> > Unless we have reason to believe YouGov is more accurate than other pollsters that would counter productive...
>
>
>
> In his South East region the LDs are now sure to be well ahead of Labour even allowing for a lot of MoE
>
> I assumed you meant in the whole UK.
>
> Thinking about it if beating the Brexit party is the priority then Labour is the only sensible vote. If you believe any of the pollsters could be right then under some pollsters it is close enough that Labour could win. The YouGov poll makes it look like nobody buy the Brexit party can win so it is hopeless anyway.
>
> So the sensible vote on balance, unless you have reason to trust one pollster over another is Labour if the priority is beating the Brexit party.
>
> Can't speak for beating them in individual regions though.
The only way Labour could have beaten the BP is if they had properly backed a second vote . Corbyn owns this whole sorry mess. A vote for Labour at the moment is a vote for Brexit. Many normal Labour voters like myself have had enough .
> > @Scrapheap_as_was said:
> > With the main parties redundant for tomorrow, i shall be lending my vote to the yellow peril...
> >
> > that it should come to this...
>
> There should be a very large number of hitherto unlikely LibDem voters tomorrow, so you will be in if not good, then widely mixed company.
>
It could be a slippery slope for many Tories. Start of a habit. Political adultery.
There's no deal, May's deal, and remaining after all.
A lot of MPs are happy to rule out whatever they think unacceptable but unwilling to pick between the other two. It's all very well Hammond bleating about no deal, but given it seems impossible for May's deal to pass that means the only outcome he ought to support is remaining.
Does he? No.
Will the Commons actually vote for May's deal so they can get the referendum a majority seems to want? No.
Will they endorse no deal? No.
I'm not a May fan. She's a terrible PM. But the Commons collectively is scarcely any better. They wrested control away from May and have used it to to decide precisely nothing.
Both main parties are in the shit.
Laters...
Oh
El
https://twitter.com/ScotExpress/status/1130976703881404417?s=19
https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/1130967780449300483?s=21
Unless you expect Labour to sign up to a deal before conference then the party will be whipping for a referendum on anything else. I'm not saying you should be happy with Labour or not angry but practically unless Mays Deal somehow goes though I can't see how that deal will happen before conference. This isn't saying you should vote for Labour in the Euros (although I would prefer that) but you shouldn't worry too much about the party as a whole passing Brexit.
Some small number of MPs doing it is always a possibility but the Tories will have to come together on a deal for that to happen. Which also seems unlikely.
Maybe I am wrong but to me it looks like it is either a general election, a referendum or a Tory leader comes in and stays in power long enough to force no deal.
In the general election Labour would end up backing a referendum on any deal and they would try to stop no deal.
All roads seem to lead to Labour backing a referendum unless we are forced out with no deal by a Tory leader.
Maybe I'm wrong...
> Will May carry on as a backbencher ? Bye election ?
David Cameron, when Prime Minister, used to speak of his devotion to public service and how he wanted to serve as a backbencher after his premiership was over.
That lasted a full two months over the summer recess.