Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The bets continue to pile on BoJo for next CON leader and PM
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The bets continue to pile on BoJo for next CON leader and PM
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I hope.
I'd sooner eat a pineapple laden pizza than at his restaurants.
> If only Jamie Oliver had called himself British Steel.
We're only making plans for Nigel
He has his future in a British steel
> One incredible stat (and why British Steel among other steel producers are really in trouble)...China last year produced more steel in one year than the entire total production of steel in the UK from the start of time.
Sorry to be pedantic but it is the last two years production.
Changing the rules is for losers, why won't Boris respect democracy instead of trying to rig it?
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > One incredible stat (and why British Steel among other steel producers are really in trouble)...China last year produced more steel in one year than the entire total production of steel in the UK from the start of time.
> Sorry to be pedantic but it is the last two years production.
>
Sky News said one year...but thats Sky News for you.
> One incredible stat (and why British Steel among other steel producers are really in trouble)...China last year produced more steel in one year than the entire total production of steel in the UK from the start of time.
2 years, I think.
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1130817944836018177?s=19
Andrea Leadsom perhaps even more so!
Now with the likes of Jezza and Boris. it seems like unless you have a record as long as your typical county lines gang leader you don't stand a chance.
@dixiedean said:
> @GIN1138 said:
> > I'm genuinely interested to see where the Brexit Party goes with all this (and electoral reform/PR) once the EU elections are out of the way.
> I think the intended replacement for all those is one N Farage backed by the Will of the People.
Or as the late Terry Pratchett would have put it: One Man, One Vote. Farage is the Man and he will have the Vote.
(Lord Vetinari in the original of course.)
> So we should just vote blindly, or for whichever party has the best logo?
--------------
It would be no worse than what we do now. Manifesto pledges are utterly worthless and simply designed to deceive people into thinking a party is promising to follow a particular policy when in fact they will dump it as son as they get elected.
Alternatively, instead of getting rid of manifestos, make them legally binding. That should make parties think twice before they print their lies.
> On the subject of British Steel, therin lies the real problems of globalisation causing discontent in Middlesborough and Ohio.
And that is only the first part of the problem. With the rise of machine learning, the white collar sector is going to see a similar upheaval in the next 10 years. And virtually nobody is talking about / has any real workable ideas to address it, it is either back tot he 70s nationalize / protectism or keep calm and carry on like nothing is happening.
> We deserve Boris. Or Corbyn.
It is rapidly becoming Corbyn or Farage. Time to pick a side, Comrade.
> If only Jamie Oliver had called himself British Steel.
I think there's a legitimate difference between an industry of strategic importance with high barriers to entry for new competitors and one where the market can easily produce new ventures who might be more successful.
Do we want to be reduced to a sole producer of steel in the country? Would none be okay?
There are five* Italian restaurants that I know of within easy walking distance of the SW London hotel I'm currently staying in. How far away is the fifth nearest steel-producing blast furnace?
* Three independents, one London mini-chain, one nationwide chain, not including Pizza Express.
> > @kle4 said:
> > We deserve Boris. Or Corbyn.
>
> It is rapidly becoming Corbyn or Farage. Time to pick a side, Comrade.
Never Corbyn.
>
> Surely the people rigging democracy would be those making sure the likely choice of the electorate wasn’t on the ballot?
You either let all twenty-nine MPs who want to be PM put their name forward to the membership, or you accept that the system as agreed in advance was designed with the express purpose of allowing MPs to choose who they thought were the best two candidates for the membership to choose between - even if the membership might disagree with that choice.
It's like when people compare voting again in parliament with rerunning a referendum - there may be good arguments for the option people want, but the two situations are not actually comparable in scope or nature, and nor is equating the rules for leadership of a political party in a system which requires, in practice though not law, that said leader commands the confidence and support of the parliamentary party, with a presidential style election.
And moaning about the rules is a lame route to go down. If support of MPs is a requirement, and it is for good reason, then it is the job of the candidates to prove themselves worthy by overcoming that hurdle, not seek to bypass it because they think they cannot do that. That would instill confidence in their ability to lead MPs if they won, would it?
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1130944175078301697
> Blimey they have been reading PB this afternoon:
>
> twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1130944175078301697
If that is what they are willing to stick in the headline, imagine what they say in the editorial meeting..
> FPT Benpointer said:
>
> > So we should just vote blindly, or for whichever party has the best logo?
>
> --------------
>
> It would be no worse than what we do now. Manifesto pledges are utterly worthless and simply designed to deceive people into thinking a party is promising to follow a particular policy when in fact they will dump it as son as they get elected.
>
> Alternatively, instead of getting rid of manifestos, make them legally binding. That should make parties think twice before they print their lies.
How would that work if there is a coalition!?
Even if a party won outright, what if there was a global financial crisis? Or a war? Or a major health crisis? Of course governments need to be able to do things differently to their manifesto pledges over a 5 year term as in the real world events matter.
Until the age of social media, people were perfectly capable of understanding manifestos as a statement of desired objectives, it is pathetic that so many now pretend they are to be seen as a univeral law of nature.
Mike's holiday starts a week on Friday.
It is over.
> Blimey they have been reading PB this afternoon:
>
> https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1130944175078301697
The Telegraph really has gone down hill. Lacks class.
> So has anyone other than May actually piped up in support yet?
She's got Matt Hancock onboard I think.
> > @kle4 said:
> > We deserve Boris. Or Corbyn.
>
> It is rapidly becoming Corbyn or Farage. Time to pick a side, Comrade.
Corbyn all the way.
Farage and Boris have "fake" written all through them, like sticks of Blackpool Rock.
Threads on Saturday and Sunday will be written well in advance.
There'll be a thread on AV auto published shortly after Mrs May resigns etc.
> Checks calendar.
>
>
>
> Mike's holiday starts a week on Friday.
>
> Perfect, May will probably announce that she is standing down then (as she passed Wellington that day I believe)
>
> Not really, I'm in Spain on the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
>
> Threads on Saturday and Sunday will be written well in advance.
>
> There'll be a thread on AV auto published shortly after Mrs May resigns etc.
Spain for the weekend....any particular reason you are there ;-)
> > @kle4 said:
> > We deserve Boris. Or Corbyn.
>
> It is rapidly becoming Corbyn or Farage. Time to pick a side, Comrade.
Corbyn’s blown it. It’s Farage or Vince Cable.
> > @isam said:
> >
> > Surely the people rigging democracy would be those making sure the likely choice of the electorate wasn’t on the ballot?
>
> You either let all twenty-nine MPs who want to be PM put their name forward to the membership, or you accept that the system as agreed in advance was designed with the express purpose of allowing MPs to choose who they thought were the best two candidates for the membership to choose between - even if the membership might disagree with that choice.
a system that has produced IDS, Cameron and May is perhaps less than perfect in its outcomes!
I recall Howard didn't have the early rounds amongst MPs, while May did before her coronation. All previous Tory leaders, including Major, Thatcher and Heath were chosen by the parliamentary party as I recall.
> > @solarflare said:
> > So has anyone other than May actually piped up in support yet?
>
> She's got Matt Hancock onboard I think.
So still no one.
> So has anyone other than May actually piped up in support yet?
Rory:
https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1130858455571599361
> There's a soccer match on that weekend I believe.
So I have heard...seems a long way to go for a minor game, when you could stay here and watch England's women team warm up for the world cup against the mighty New Zealanders.
> > @solarflare said:
> > So has anyone other than May actually piped up in support yet?
>
> Rory:
>
> https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1130858455571599361
You can stop now Rory, you got the promotion.
> https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1130946444624650240
If there is one thing May does well, it is gurning. Real prize-winning performances!
It’s usual for the PM to stay on until a new leader is found . I’m sure we’ll get the vomit inducing change of tone from the ERG and the rest who will knowing she’s gone will be all nice then .
For balance how do non Corbyn remainers (LD, SNP, CUK, Blairite Labour) expect to win?
Why are they turning down a 2nd referendum offer now? They have the votes to block Brexit currently, but not for revoke. The chances of a non Corbyn remain majority in parliament after a GE are negligible so they can either aim for indefinite delay, or accept a deal from May, Corbyn or the new Tory leader. Are they ever going to get a better offer than they have got today? Probably not.
Anyway, it's rather typical of Brexit that some Leavers seem to think May made some sort of huge move on a second referendum (e.g. the Sun tweet below) and some Remainers appear to think she did nothing than offer some faint, vague misdirection to trick folk into voting for the WAB. I think the reality is somewhere in the middle and May was literally trying to explain just the boring procedural aspect, but as usual it satisfied noone.
And then Boris will have to tell us his PLAN for Brexit, which should be entertaining.
> Last thought - some EU polls showed a modest recovery to around 12/13 for the Tories, an outside change at third but more likely at least holding fourth. I think this put paids to that - it will be sub 10, 5th or worse. Not entirely fair given the bulk of the Tory MPs did try to Brexit, but that's the price of failure, and given how obvious it is that the party is about to go to no deal in a big way, I don't think even remainer loyalists can be counted upon. It will be brutal, and May alone going won't fix things for them.
That was before May went and did a dementia tax approach to her deal reboot.
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > We deserve Boris. Or Corbyn.
>
>
>
> It is rapidly becoming Corbyn or Farage. Time to pick a side, Comrade.
>
> Corbyn then. he's more incompetent so the risk may be less. We deserve Boris. Or Corbyn.
>
> I suspect we'll get both.
>
> Probably.
>
> could be all three. boris until he loses an election to Corbyn, who gets in supported by brexit revoking lib dems, followed by farage in the election after that!
>
> Please, I'm about to try to sleep. Shudder.Why did she pull these weird faces?
>
> Take a snap shot of many people mid expression change and they can look very weird. <
++++
T May grimaces a LOT, however. It is unfortunate and disconcerting, but it is clearly a part of her. Awkward and ungainly, and sometimes robotic. That's what she is.
In her final agony, I have a lot of sympathy for her. I think she genuinely did her best, she's just not a very good politician, and she is truly terrible at strategy and negotiation. She was absolutely the wrong choice at absolutely the worst time.
Sad. For all.
Have you never seen her speak? She is up there with Gordon Brown in the facial tic stakes. It’s almost mocking the disabled to use those photos, and the Sun’s headline is a disgrace
> > @Foxy said:
> > On the subject of British Steel, therin lies the real problems of globalisation causing discontent in Middlesborough and Ohio.
>
> And that is only the first part of the problem. With the rise of machine learning, the white collar sector is going to see a similar upheaval in the next 10 years. And virtually nobody is talking about / has any real workable ideas to address it, it is either back tot he 70s nationalize / protectism or keep calm and carry on like nothing is happening.
UBI
> https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/1130944400660606978
>
> > @rottenborough said:
>
> > Blimey they have been reading PB this afternoon:
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1130944175078301697
>
> The Telegraph really has gone down hill. Lacks class.
>
> Finding unflattering photos to lead with is pretty cheap and classless.
It appears to be the way all the papers have gone. Not that that's right, but...
> Please, I'm about to try to sleep. Shudder.Why did she pull these weird faces?
>
> Take a snap shot of many people mid expression change and they can look very weird.
>
>
> Have you never seen her speak? She is up there with Gordon Brown in the facial tic stakes. It’s almost mocking the disabled to use those photos, and the Sun’s headline is a disgrace <
++++
Yes, I think that's right. She has some kind of cognitive issue - you see the same with Brown in his YouTube videos. These front pages are unnecessary, and cruel.
> > @isam said:
>
> > Please, I'm about to try to sleep. Shudder.Why did she pull these weird faces?
> >
> > Take a snap shot of many people mid expression change and they can look very weird.
> >
> >
> > Have you never seen her speak? She is up there with Gordon Brown in the facial tic stakes. It’s almost mocking the disabled to use those photos, and the Sun’s headline is a disgrace <
>
> ++++
>
> Yes, I think that's right. She has some kind of cognitive issue - you see the same with Brown in his YouTube videos. These front pages are unnecessary, and cruel.
>
>
Agreed entirely, and a complete distraction from discussing the actual speech.
> Brutal, brutal newspaper headlines for May and the Tories....
Pah, it's not as if there are any elections happening any time soon......
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> >
> > > We deserve Boris. Or Corbyn.
> >
> >
> >
> > It is rapidly becoming Corbyn or Farage. Time to pick a side, Comrade.
> >
> > Corbyn then. he's more incompetent so the risk may be less. We deserve Boris. Or Corbyn.
> >
> > I suspect we'll get both.
> >
> > Probably.
> >
> > could be all three. boris until he loses an election to Corbyn, who gets in supported by brexit revoking lib dems, followed by farage in the election after that!
> >
> > Please, I'm about to try to sleep. Shudder.Why did she pull these weird faces?
> >
> > Take a snap shot of many people mid expression change and they can look very weird. <
>
> ++++
>
> T May grimaces a LOT, however. It is unfortunate and disconcerting, but it is clearly a part of her. Awkward and ungainly, and sometimes robotic. That's what she is.
>
> In her final agony, I have a lot of sympathy for her. I think she genuinely did her best, she's just not a very good politician, and she is truly terrible at strategy and negotiation. She was absolutely the wrong choice at absolutely the worst time.
>
> Sad. For all.
If Gove han't knifed Boris, we would have been three years ahead of the curve.....
> I asked in the last thread how no-dealers expect to win? Why would they not want a referendum when it is by far the most plausible way of getting no deal.
>
> For balance how do non Corbyn remainers (LD, SNP, CUK, Blairite Labour) expect to win?
>
> Why are they turning down a 2nd referendum offer now? They have the votes to block Brexit currently, but not for revoke. The chances of a non Corbyn remain majority in parliament after a GE are negligible so they can either aim for indefinite delay, or accept a deal from May, Corbyn or the new Tory leader. Are they ever going to get a better offer than they have got today? Probably not.
Surely they would say that a second referendum hasn't been offered, just a vote on one - after the WA passes. If May had linked the two and said the WA would include a second referendum that would be one thing, but just saying there would be a vote on one later is worthless. May could (and likely would) whip against it and it would likely be defeated.
> The fact he's trying to get the rules changed tells you he thinks he's doomed.
>
> The Con party membership will implode if Boris is not on the final 2 (or 4).
>
> So be it.
>
> Changing the rules is for losers, why won't Boris respect democracy instead of trying to rig it?
>
> Surely the people rigging democracy would be those making sure the likely choice of the electorate wasn’t on the ballot?
>
> The rules for both main parties to ensure any leader has the support of sufficient numbers of MPs are there for a good reason. It's pathetic that people who would fall foul of the rule blame their weakness among MPs as the system being unfair, it is not meant to be a completely democratic exercise. Why even have MP nominations at that point, the Tory membership would probably elect Farage as their leader if they could.
>
> It's like when people compare voting again in parliament with rerunning a referendum - there may be good arguments for the option people want, but the two situations are not actually comparable in scope or nature, and nor is equating the rules for leadership of a political party in a system which requires, in practice though not law, that said leader commands the confidence and support of the parliamentary party, with a presidential style election.
>
> And moaning about the rules is a lame route to go down. If support of MPs is a requirement, and it is for good reason, then it is the job of the candidates to prove themselves worthy by overcoming that hurdle, not seek to bypass it because they think they cannot do that. That would instill confidence in their ability to lead MPs if they won, would it?
>
> > @isam said:
>
> >
>
> > Surely the people rigging democracy would be those making sure the likely choice of the electorate wasn’t on the ballot?
>
>
>
> You either let all twenty-nine MPs who want to be PM put their name forward to the membership, or you accept that the system as agreed in advance was designed with the express purpose of allowing MPs to choose who they thought were the best two candidates for the membership to choose between - even if the membership might disagree with that choice.
>
> Yet Remain should be on a second referendum ballot despite being defeated
>
> If there is one, many options should be on it, including no deal. It won't, but it should.
Parliament wouldn’t be stupid enough to risk it, and it can’t be suitably defined in any case.