Questions reposted from previous thread. This week's euros are a disaster for the Conservatives. Brexit Party triumphant. May goes at last. New Tory leader elected to deliver Brexit and move on from the awful mess.
Will they deliver Brexit? And how?
What difference will the rise of the Brexit Party make?
To the latter point, it’s allowed us to identify the number of economic flat earthers in the UK and cross-reference that to their need for employment income.
The above all voted for the Withdrawal Agreement last time unlike Baker, Patterson or Villiers who will stand with the backing of ERG hardliners if they do so again.
If the WA fails for a final time next month and assuming Macron vetoes further extension the choice will literally be Revoke Article 50 or No Deal in October and no Tory leader would survive doing the former which would also be a gift to the Brexit Party
In or out of the EU there would be a carbon tax . The main issue now is a big drop in orders from Europe . The fear of tariffs in a no deal scenario , any orders placed now might suddenly attract a 20% tariff .
> @HYUFD said: > > @Scott_P said: > > https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130732404136718337 > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130732407127199744 > > The above all voted for the Withdrawal Agreement last time unlike Baker, Patterson or Villiers who will stand with the backing of ERG hardliners if they do so again. > > If the WA fails for a final time next month and assuming Macron vetoes further extension the choice will literally be Revoke Article 50 or No Deal in October and no Tory leader would survive doing the former which would also be a gift to the Brexit Party
No Tory party will survive the latter as things play out....
> If the WA fails for a final time next month and assuming Macron vetoes further extension the choice will literally be Revoke Article 50 or No Deal in October and no Tory leader would survive doing the former which would also be a gift to the Brexit Party -------- Why assume Macron would veto? It completely misunderstands the EU, and his, position.
> Does Gordon Brown believe UKIP are the only party that uses PayPal for donations?
The Leave campaign is under investigation for impermissible donations.
Aroun Banks, major funder of Leave, and apparently the Brexit Party, is under investigation for impermissible donations, possibly linked to his close relationship to Russian government officials.
One of the major fund raisers for the Brexit Party was convicted in the US for money laundering.
As I understand it, TBP received clear warnings from the Electoral Commission. If those warnings were ignored, then Farage is in very hot water, not cold milk shake.
Just the Trump was going to be in trouble because of Mueller.
> @eek said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130732404136718337 > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130732407127199744 > > > > The above all voted for the Withdrawal Agreement last time unlike Baker, Patterson or Villiers who will stand with the backing of ERG hardliners if they do so again. > > > > If the WA fails for a final time next month and assuming Macron vetoes further extension the choice will literally be Revoke Article 50 or No Deal in October and no Tory leader would survive doing the former which would also be a gift to the Brexit Party > > No Tory party will survive the latter as things play out....
It would do despite the challenges,, however no Tory Party would survive Revoke as the Brexit Party would overtake it
Just over 5 months until 31 October. Let’s hope that between now and then the No Deal Tory leader candidates spend some time thinking about what No Deal means in practice, how they will deal with Northern Ireland, the demands for payment to the EU of what we owe, how to operate when we fall out of legal agreements with nothing to replace them and a myriad other questions and come up with a workable plan.
They certainly need to. Judging by some of their supporters on here, a wing and a prayer is all they have at the moment.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > @Mango said: > > > > > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1130595759768920065 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Boris showing some leg to Remainer MPs to try and get on the ballot of the final two. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > And he is an inveterate liar. > > > > > > > > > > > > He was a Remain Mayor of London. Londoners are unlikely to forget that. > > > > > > Boris’s plays are pretty transparent. > > > > > > This tells you he’s genuinely worried about getting into the final two, and doesn’t believe he can rely upon the Brexiteer caucus. > > > > And this is where the hustings will be so important. Boris must realise he cannot achieve his goal by pandering to the 30 or so Spartans but must appeal to a wider audience. > > > > The idea the run off will be between Boris and Baker is for the birds. I expect Boris may be able to get himself into the last two but I would not be surprised to see one of the ladies as the other choice > > Boris v Leadsom or Mourdaunt?
> @nico67 said: > > @tlg86 said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130732404136718337 > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130732407127199744 > > > > Steel workers? I thought what was hurting Scunthorpe was that we were still in the EU when they'd planned for us to be out and therefore not subject to the carbon tax. > > In or out of the EU there would be a carbon tax . The main issue now is a big drop in orders from Europe . The fear of tariffs in a no deal scenario , any orders placed now might suddenly attract a 20% tariff .
Presumably that would be quite a big shift in the EU customs union tariff on imported steel?
> @Cyclefree said: > > And do you think those voters keen now on No Deal will go “Oh that’s fine. I’m happy to lose my job / see the orders to my business decrease / whatever” or will they turn round and say: “This is not what you promised.”? > > Because if it’s the latter all that the No Deal fanatics are doing is setting up a fresh betrayal narrative for the future. And how is that supposed to help? > > What I would like to understand - and have asked repeatedly - from the No Dealers (not the Remainers) how exactly they think that trade and all the other things we are currently doing under the existing laws / agreements we will fall out of if there is No Deal will happen? > > And answer comes there none. Is it too much to expect those wanting something to have a plan for how it is to come about? > > Or is this just about belief and being grateful that it won’t be as bad as WW2 (copyright: Anne Widdecombe)?
All very valid.
But how many times have you queried the lies and fake news pedaled by Remainers before and after the Referendum ?
There reaches a point where people no longer believe warnings when so many have been proven wrong in the past.
F1: current forecast (BBC, for what it's worth) is for qualifying to have a 60% chance of rain. Smaller chance of rain during practice, but we'll see if that changes.
Boris, as the least ideological of the Leavers, is potentially positioned to do well. If I was a moderate Tory MP, my top priority would be to get the far out zealots off the final ballot. Boris fits the bill quite nicely.
I hope MPs are studying game theory for the second and last MP round of voting.
> @Jonathan said: > Boris, as the least ideological of the Leavers, is potentially positioned to do well. If I was a moderate Tory MP, my top priority would be to get the far out zealots off the final ballot. Boris fits the bill quite nicely. > > I hope MPs are studying game theory for the second and last MP round of voting.
Boris, as the least ideological of the Leavers, is potentially positioned to do well. If I was a moderate Tory MP, my top priority would be to get the far out zealots off the final ballot. Boris fits the bill quite nicely.
I hope MPs are studying game theory for the second and last MP round of voting.
It is supposed to be the world's most sophisticated electorate (the MPs I mean).
I have done repeatedly. If you look back at my posts from that time and some of my thread headers.
I could live with a deal, even though departure from the EU is not my preferred option. But hijacking the result to push through something which was explicitly disavowed at the time of the referendum and for which the No Dealers have absolutely no plan is frivolously and unpardonably negligent. Worse, frankly.
The Brexiteers have shat in their own bed. They have stymied all attempts to leave in an orderly manner. They have become more and more extreme. They have no plan. They are willing to take the risk of serious economic and reputational harm to Britain. They care only about the interests of the Tory party. And when it will likely go wrong, they will blame everyone but themselves. And they will not be there to help those harmed by their idiocy.
And then they have the nerve to point at Corbyn and say that his economic proposals will harm Britain and that he is no patriot. Pots and kettles.
> > > > > Boris showing some leg to Remainer MPs to try and get on the ballot of the final two.
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > And he is an inveterate liar.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > He was a Remain Mayor of London. Londoners are unlikely to forget that.
> > >
> > > Boris’s plays are pretty transparent.
> > >
> > > This tells you he’s genuinely worried about getting into the final two, and doesn’t believe he can rely upon the Brexiteer caucus.
> >
> > And this is where the hustings will be so important. Boris must realise he cannot achieve his goal by pandering to the 30 or so Spartans but must appeal to a wider audience.
> >
> > The idea the run off will be between Boris and Baker is for the birds. I expect Boris may be able to get himself into the last two but I would not be surprised to see one of the ladies as the other choice
>
> Boris v Leadsom or Mourdaunt?
Though Hunt was a shoo-in for last two/four?
I have taken an extra little nibble on Leadsom. Getting a bit nervous she is the dark horse here, and I was slightly red.
> @rottenborough said: > Boris, as the least ideological of the Leavers, is potentially positioned to do well. If I was a moderate Tory MP, my top priority would be to get the far out zealots off the final ballot. Boris fits the bill quite nicely. > > > > I hope MPs are studying game theory for the second and last MP round of voting. > > It is supposed to be the world's most sophisticated electorate (the MPs I mean).
... as evidenced by the results? Or was that the fault of the members?
> @Cyclefree said: > In response to @another_richard:- > > I have done repeatedly. If you look back at my posts from that time and some of my thread headers. > > I could live with a deal, even though departure from the EU is not my preferred option. But hijacking the result to push through something which was explicitly disavowed at the time of the referendum and for which the No Dealers have absolutely no plan is frivolously and unpardonably negligent. Worse, frankly. > > The Brexiteers have shat in their own bed. They have stymied all attempts to leave in an orderly manner. They have become more and more extreme. They have no plan. They are willing to take the risk of serious economic and reputational harm to Britain. They care only about the interests of the Tory party. And when it will likely go wrong, they will blame everyone but themselves. And they will not be there to help those harmed by their idiocy. > > And then they have the nerve to point at Corbyn and say that his economic proposals will harm Britain and that he is no patriot. Pots and kettles.
I think the appeal of Boris may prove to be his lack of firm opinions. Wherever you are in the Tory parliamentary party, it's *possible* that Boris will prove to be your sort of PM, just because you can't rely on anything that he says remaining fixed in stone. By contrast, almost everyone else has a rigid view which is only backed by a minority. So if, for example, you're a Brexiteer and pondering whether Boris or Javid would be better, you might take a punt on Boris, since it's possible that he'll be hardline, and Javid really won't. Conversely, if you're a closet Remainer, and have to choose Boris vs Raab, you have a chance of success with Boris but none at at all with Raab.
And of course once he gets into the last 2 (or 4) he's home and dry, and if you've pledged your support you might get to be Minister for Paperclips or whatever.
Whether any of this is good for Britain is a different matter, of course. The appeal of Boris for Labour is that as things stand Corbyn would win the gravitas stakes hands down: Boris has work to do to demonstrate that he'd be a serious PM at all..
> @another_richard said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > And do you think those voters keen now on No Deal will go “Oh that’s fine. I’m happy to lose my job / see the orders to my business decrease / whatever” or will they turn round and say: “This is not what you promised.”? > > > > Because if it’s the latter all that the No Deal fanatics are doing is setting up a fresh betrayal narrative for the future. And how is that supposed to help? > > > > What I would like to understand - and have asked repeatedly - from the No Dealers (not the Remainers) how exactly they think that trade and all the other things we are currently doing under the existing laws / agreements we will fall out of if there is No Deal will happen? > > > > And answer comes there none. Is it too much to expect those wanting something to have a plan for how it is to come about? > > > > Or is this just about belief and being grateful that it won’t be as bad as WW2 (copyright: Anne Widdecombe)? > > All very valid. > > But how many times have you queried the lies and fake news pedaled by Remainers before and after the Referendum ? > > There reaches a point where people no longer believe warnings when so many have been proven wrong in the past.
Mr. Palmer, that seems to be the thinking of some Conservative MPs but they're making the same mistake they did when May prevaricated for months on end, just thinking she might end up going their way.
Not to mention, Boris has proven himself unfit for high office.
> @Cyclefree said: > D> @Cyclefree said: > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > Hammonds remarks are a shot across the bows of the no dealers who think a no deal PM will be able to make it happen through the Commons . > > > Not just the Tories, increasingly most voters, Opinium at the weekend had more voters preferring No Deal to EUref2 and more voters preferring No Deal to revoke or further extension combined > > > > > > Do you really think those voters understand what an exit from the EU with no transitional agreement and an overnight exit from 700 international agreements mean? You clearly didn’t when I asked you the other day. > > > > ------------- > > > > The problem that you... no to be fair the problem that WE... have is that it is not a case of people not knowing. It is a case of them not caring. > > > > They perceive that the pro-EU side has cried wolf over the claimed disasters around Brexit for so long that they no longer believe anything they say. Remain have massively overplayed their hand as far as these people are concerned and nothing they can claim as far as downsides are concerned will make any significant impact. > > > > Now obviously you can say that they will quickly find out it was not exaggeration once we do have a No Deal but by then it will already have happened. > > And do you think those voters keen now on No Deal will go “Oh that’s fine. I’m happy to lose my job / see the orders to my business decrease / whatever” or will they turn round and say: “This is not what you promised.”? > > Because if it’s the latter all that the No Deal fanatics are doing is setting up a fresh betrayal narrative for the future. And how is that supposed to help? > > What I would like to understand - and have asked repeatedly - from the No Dealers (not the Remainers) how exactly they think that trade and all the other things we are currently doing under the existing laws / agreements we will fall out of if there is No Deal will happen? > > And answer comes there none. Is it too much to expect those wanting something to have a plan for how it is to come about? > > Or is this just about belief and being grateful that it won’t be as bad as WW2 (copyright: Anne Widdecombe)?
Given that I am not advocating No Deal I am in no position to answer that. Nor was it the point of my comment. Indeed my whole point was that a new way needs to be found to avoid No Deal whilst still having us leave the EU because whatever they are doing at the moment just isn't working and simply shouting it louder and loader does not make it any more likely to succeed. Support for No Deal as an objective rather than an accident is apparently increasing not decreasing.
> @NickPalmer said: > > @Scott_P said: > > https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1130733997347221504 > > I think the appeal of Boris may prove to be his lack of firm opinions. Wherever you are in the Tory parliamentary party, it's *possible* that Boris will prove to be your sort of PM, just because you can't rely on anything that he says remaining fixed in stone. By contrast, almost everyone else has a rigid view which is only backed by a minority. So if, for example, you're a Brexiteer and pondering whether Boris or Javid would be better, you might take a punt on Boris, since it's possible that he'll be hardline, and Javid really won't. Conversely, if you're a closet Remainer, and have to choose Boris vs Raab, you have a chance of success with Boris but none at at all with Raab. > > And of course once he gets into the last 2 (or 4) he's home and dry, and if you've pledged your support you might get to be Minister for Paperclips or whatever. > > Whether any of this is good for Britain is a different matter, of course. The appeal of Boris for Labour is that as things stand Corbyn would win the gravitas stakes hands down: Boris has work to do to demonstrate that he'd be a serious PM at all..
I have done repeatedly. If you look back at my posts from that time and some of my thread headers.
I could live with a deal, even though departure from the EU is not my preferred option. But hijacking the result to push through something which was explicitly disavowed at the time of the referendum and for which the No Dealers have absolutely no plan is frivolously and unpardonably negligent. Worse, frankly.
The Brexiteers have shat in their own bed. They have stymied all attempts to leave in an orderly manner. They have become more and more extreme. They have no plan. They are willing to take the risk of serious economic and reputational harm to Britain. They care only about the interests of the Tory party. And when it will likely go wrong, they will blame everyone but themselves. And they will not be there to help those harmed by their idiocy.
And then they have the nerve to point at Corbyn and say that his economic proposals will harm Britain and that he is no patriot. Pots and kettles.
The only reason No Deal is still a runner is MPs elected on a pledge to implement the referendum result refusing to back the deal
> @HYUFD said: > > @NickPalmer said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1130733997347221504 > > > > I think the appeal of Boris may prove to be his lack of firm opinions. Wherever you are in the Tory parliamentary party, it's *possible* that Boris will prove to be your sort of PM, just because you can't rely on anything that he says remaining fixed in stone. By contrast, almost everyone else has a rigid view which is only backed by a minority. So if, for example, you're a Brexiteer and pondering whether Boris or Javid would be better, you might take a punt on Boris, since it's possible that he'll be hardline, and Javid really won't. Conversely, if you're a closet Remainer, and have to choose Boris vs Raab, you have a chance of success with Boris but none at at all with Raab. > > > > And of course once he gets into the last 2 (or 4) he's home and dry, and if you've pledged your support you might get to be Minister for Paperclips or whatever. > > > > Whether any of this is good for Britain is a different matter, of course. The appeal of Boris for Labour is that as things stand Corbyn would win the gravitas stakes hands down: Boris has work to do to demonstrate that he'd be a serious PM at all.. > > Gravitas rarely wins elections, charisma does
Attlee vs Churchill! Attlee won both on popular vote, although only the first in terms of seats. Could say Heath vs Wilson, too. Heath was more 'charismatic' but Wilson won more elections.
> @Cyclefree said: > In response to @another_richard:- > > I have done repeatedly. If you look back at my posts from that time and some of my thread headers. > > I could live with a deal, even though departure from the EU is not my preferred option. But hijacking the result to push through something which was explicitly disavowed at the time of the referendum and for which the No Dealers have absolutely no plan is frivolously and unpardonably negligent. Worse, frankly. > > The Brexiteers have shat in their own bed. They have stymied all attempts to leave in an orderly manner. They have become more and more extreme. They have no plan. They are willing to take the risk of serious economic and reputational harm to Britain. They care only about the interests of the Tory party. And when it will likely go wrong, they will blame everyone but themselves. And they will not be there to help those harmed by their idiocy. > > And then they have the nerve to point at Corbyn and say that his economic proposals will harm Britain and that he is no patriot. Pots and kettles.
Really ? Perhaps I'm mistaken but you seem to have increasingly looked one way.
Yes, the No Dealers are irresponsible and self-obsessed but I'll tell you who have also shat the bed.
And that's those people who pedaled lies about the economy, the City, about immigration, about farming, about hate crimes because they have never accepted the Referendum result.
Try finding a PB Remainer who acknowledges they predicted a recession and now accepts they were wrong.
I think the appeal of Boris may prove to be his lack of firm opinions. Wherever you are in the Tory parliamentary party, it's *possible* that Boris will prove to be your sort of PM, just because you can't rely on anything that he says remaining fixed in stone. By contrast, almost everyone else has a rigid view which is only backed by a minority. So if, for example, you're a Brexiteer and pondering whether Boris or Javid would be better, you might take a punt on Boris, since it's possible that he'll be hardline, and Javid really won't. Conversely, if you're a closet Remainer, and have to choose Boris vs Raab, you have a chance of success with Boris but none at at all with Raab.
And of course once he gets into the last 2 (or 4) he's home and dry, and if you've pledged your support you might get to be Minister for Paperclips or whatever.
Whether any of this is good for Britain is a different matter, of course. The appeal of Boris for Labour is that as things stand Corbyn would win the gravitas stakes hands down: Boris has work to do to demonstrate that he'd be a serious PM at all..
But you'd know exactly which one you'd prefer to go for a pint with. New politics, Nick, new politics.
> @Morris_Dancer said: > Mr. Palmer, that seems to be the thinking of some Conservative MPs but they're making the same mistake they did when May prevaricated for months on end, just thinking she might end up going their way. > > Not to mention, Boris has proven himself unfit for high office.
Boris spouting the same old guff as May = same polling as May.
The next Con leader needs some conviction - not a box ticking pen.
> @TOPPING said: > I think the appeal of Boris may prove to be his lack of firm opinions. Wherever you are in the Tory parliamentary party, it's *possible* that Boris will prove to be your sort of PM, just because you can't rely on anything that he says remaining fixed in stone. By contrast, almost everyone else has a rigid view which is only backed by a minority. So if, for example, you're a Brexiteer and pondering whether Boris or Javid would be better, you might take a punt on Boris, since it's possible that he'll be hardline, and Javid really won't. Conversely, if you're a closet Remainer, and have to choose Boris vs Raab, you have a chance of success with Boris but none at at all with Raab. > > And of course once he gets into the last 2 (or 4) he's home and dry, and if you've pledged your support you might get to be Minister for Paperclips or whatever. > > Whether any of this is good for Britain is a different matter, of course. The appeal of Boris for Labour is that as things stand Corbyn would win the gravitas stakes hands down: Boris has work to do to demonstrate that he'd be a serious PM at all.. > > But you'd know exactly which one you'd prefer to go for a pint with. New politics, Nick, new politics.
Interesting. Either the leaflet was in the pack or it was not. If it was then I would have thought words along the lines of "look, it fell out of my election pack but I accept that this was not the intention" might have been more appropriate. As it is, the doubt is now cast on Mr Snow Jr.
> @TGOHF said: > > @Morris_Dancer said: > > Mr. Palmer, that seems to be the thinking of some Conservative MPs but they're making the same mistake they did when May prevaricated for months on end, just thinking she might end up going their way. > > > > Not to mention, Boris has proven himself unfit for high office. > > Boris spouting the same old guff as May = same polling as May. > > The next Con leader needs some conviction - not a box ticking pen.
> @another_richard said: > > @TGOHF said: > > > @Morris_Dancer said: > > > Mr. Palmer, that seems to be the thinking of some Conservative MPs but they're making the same mistake they did when May prevaricated for months on end, just thinking she might end up going their way. > > > > > > Not to mention, Boris has proven himself unfit for high office. > > > > Boris spouting the same old guff as May = same polling as May. > > > > The next Con leader needs some conviction - not a box ticking pen. > > How about some competence ?
Yes that too - although that can be delegated to able minions.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), indeed. Boris *might* be just what they want. And that lottery ticket *might* win. Except Camelot don't have a history of being cowardly and full of shit.
They have direct and current experience of how difficult it is having a PM who cannot be trusted and has changes of mind without rhyme or reason. Having another one is just bloody stupid.
> @eek said: > For those betting on the EU elections - 1 comment from the weekend. > > Up North postal vote returns are way, way higher than for the local elections.
That should probably reduce TBP percentages... Could indeed be Remainers coming out.
> @Cicero said: > > @eek said: > > For those betting on the EU elections - 1 comment from the weekend. > > > > Up North postal vote returns are way, way higher than for the local elections. > > That should probably reduce TBP percentages... Could indeed be Remainers coming out.
I believe oldies are more likely to have postal votes.
Also working class turnout is usually lower.
That might suggest working class oldies are voting in increased numbers.
> @Cicero said: > > @eek said: > > For those betting on the EU elections - 1 comment from the weekend. > > > > Up North postal vote returns are way, way higher than for the local elections. > > That should probably reduce TBP percentages... Could indeed be Remainers coming out.
Alternatively it could be the Brexiteers that didn't have a party to vote for in the locals and sat on their hands.
> > For those betting on the EU elections - 1 comment from the weekend.
> >
> > Up North postal vote returns are way, way higher than for the local elections.
>
> That should probably reduce TBP percentages... Could indeed be Remainers coming out.
Alternatively it could be the Brexiteers that didn't have a party to vote for in the locals and sat on their hands.
That seems the most likely explanation. And it's a double whammy if true. Not only does it suggest the more Brexity section of the population are voting, but that they are voting in a way dissimilar to previous elections. So all other things being equal, that will mean that the polling weightings are underestimating them compared to previous outings. So that means the polls are quite likely to be understating them and the Brexit Party may exceed its already very respectable poll ratings.
> @OldKingCole said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @NickPalmer said: > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1130733997347221504 > > > > > > I think the appeal of Boris may prove to be his lack of firm opinions. Wherever you are in the Tory parliamentary party, it's *possible* that Boris will prove to be your sort of PM, just because you can't rely on anything that he says remaining fixed in stone. By contrast, almost everyone else has a rigid view which is only backed by a minority. So if, for example, you're a Brexiteer and pondering whether Boris or Javid would be better, you might take a punt on Boris, since it's possible that he'll be hardline, and Javid really won't. Conversely, if you're a closet Remainer, and have to choose Boris vs Raab, you have a chance of success with Boris but none at at all with Raab. > > > > > > And of course once he gets into the last 2 (or 4) he's home and dry, and if you've pledged your support you might get to be Minister for Paperclips or whatever. > > > > > > Whether any of this is good for Britain is a different matter, of course. The appeal of Boris for Labour is that as things stand Corbyn would win the gravitas stakes hands down: Boris has work to do to demonstrate that he'd be a serious PM at all.. > > > > Gravitas rarely wins elections, charisma does > > Attlee vs Churchill! Attlee won both on popular vote, although only the first in terms of seats. > Could say Heath vs Wilson, too. Heath was more 'charismatic' but Wilson won more elections.
Attlee won twice in terms of seats - 1945 & 1950. Wilson was seen as far more charismatic than Heath..
> @another_richard said: > > @Cicero said: > > > @eek said: > > > For those betting on the EU elections - 1 comment from the weekend. > > > > > > Up North postal vote returns are way, way higher than for the local elections. > > > > That should probably reduce TBP percentages... Could indeed be Remainers coming out. > > I believe oldies are more likely to have postal votes. > > Also working class turnout is usually lower. > > That might suggest working class oldies are voting in increased numbers.
> @another_richard said: > > @Cicero said: > > > @eek said: > > > For those betting on the EU elections - 1 comment from the weekend. > > > > > > Up North postal vote returns are way, way higher than for the local elections. > > > > That should probably reduce TBP percentages... Could indeed be Remainers coming out. > > I believe oldies are more likely to have postal votes. > > Also working class turnout is usually lower. > > That might suggest working class oldies are voting in increased numbers.
The middle class will dominate these elections.
Could still help The Brexit party tho. It is Smyth to say most LEAVE voters were poor.
> @eek said: > For those betting on the EU elections - 1 comment from the weekend. > > Up North postal vote returns are way, way higher than for the local elections.
Comments
> https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1130729942155575297
>
>
>
> If he wins, will it be PB’s biggest collective betting loss?
I thought I'll lose about 80 quid
> > @isam said:
> > https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1130729942155575297
> >
> >
> >
> > If he wins, will it be PB’s biggest collective betting loss?
>
> I thought I'll lose about 80 quid
I'm green on Boris. Got on him at 9s some time ago.
> https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130732404136718337
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130732407127199744
The above all voted for the Withdrawal Agreement last time unlike Baker, Patterson or Villiers who will stand with the backing of ERG hardliners if they do so again.
If the WA fails for a final time next month and assuming Macron vetoes further extension the choice will literally be Revoke Article 50 or No Deal in October and no Tory leader would survive doing the former which would also be a gift to the Brexit Party
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130732404136718337
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130732407127199744
>
> Steel workers? I thought what was hurting Scunthorpe was that we were still in the EU when they'd planned for us to be out and therefore not subject to the carbon tax.
In or out of the EU there would be a carbon tax . The main issue now is a big drop in orders from Europe . The fear of tariffs in a no deal scenario , any orders placed now might suddenly attract a 20% tariff .
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130732404136718337
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130732407127199744
>
> The above all voted for the Withdrawal Agreement last time unlike Baker, Patterson or Villiers who will stand with the backing of ERG hardliners if they do so again.
>
> If the WA fails for a final time next month and assuming Macron vetoes further extension the choice will literally be Revoke Article 50 or No Deal in October and no Tory leader would survive doing the former which would also be a gift to the Brexit Party
No Tory party will survive the latter as things play out....
> If the WA fails for a final time next month and assuming Macron vetoes further extension the choice will literally be Revoke Article 50 or No Deal in October and no Tory leader would survive doing the former which would also be a gift to the Brexit Party
--------
Why assume Macron would veto? It completely misunderstands the EU, and his, position.
I seem to recall posting this rumour about four candidates a week or so ago. Interesting some are saying the final rules have not be finalised yet.
I have been green on Boris all through May's descent into the exit lounge.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130732404136718337
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130732407127199744
> >
> > The above all voted for the Withdrawal Agreement last time unlike Baker, Patterson or Villiers who will stand with the backing of ERG hardliners if they do so again.
> >
> > If the WA fails for a final time next month and assuming Macron vetoes further extension the choice will literally be Revoke Article 50 or No Deal in October and no Tory leader would survive doing the former which would also be a gift to the Brexit Party
>
> No Tory party will survive the latter as things play out....
It would do despite the challenges,, however no Tory Party would survive Revoke as the Brexit Party would overtake it
They certainly need to. Judging by some of their supporters on here, a wing and a prayer is all they have at the moment.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > @Mango said:
> > >
> > > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > >
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > >
> > > > > > https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1130595759768920065
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > > > Boris showing some leg to Remainer MPs to try and get on the ballot of the final two.
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > And he is an inveterate liar.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > He was a Remain Mayor of London. Londoners are unlikely to forget that.
> > >
> > > Boris’s plays are pretty transparent.
> > >
> > > This tells you he’s genuinely worried about getting into the final two, and doesn’t believe he can rely upon the Brexiteer caucus.
> >
> > And this is where the hustings will be so important. Boris must realise he cannot achieve his goal by pandering to the 30 or so Spartans but must appeal to a wider audience.
> >
> > The idea the run off will be between Boris and Baker is for the birds. I expect Boris may be able to get himself into the last two but I would not be surprised to see one of the ladies as the other choice
>
> Boris v Leadsom or Mourdaunt?
Though Hunt was a shoo-in for last two/four?
> > @tlg86 said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130732404136718337
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130732407127199744
> >
> > Steel workers? I thought what was hurting Scunthorpe was that we were still in the EU when they'd planned for us to be out and therefore not subject to the carbon tax.
>
> In or out of the EU there would be a carbon tax . The main issue now is a big drop in orders from Europe . The fear of tariffs in a no deal scenario , any orders placed now might suddenly attract a 20% tariff .
Presumably that would be quite a big shift in the EU customs union tariff on imported steel?
>
> And do you think those voters keen now on No Deal will go “Oh that’s fine. I’m happy to lose my job / see the orders to my business decrease / whatever” or will they turn round and say: “This is not what you promised.”?
>
> Because if it’s the latter all that the No Deal fanatics are doing is setting up a fresh betrayal narrative for the future. And how is that supposed to help?
>
> What I would like to understand - and have asked repeatedly - from the No Dealers (not the Remainers) how exactly they think that trade and all the other things we are currently doing under the existing laws / agreements we will fall out of if there is No Deal will happen?
>
> And answer comes there none. Is it too much to expect those wanting something to have a plan for how it is to come about?
>
> Or is this just about belief and being grateful that it won’t be as bad as WW2 (copyright: Anne Widdecombe)?
All very valid.
But how many times have you queried the lies and fake news pedaled by Remainers before and after the Referendum ?
There reaches a point where people no longer believe warnings when so many have been proven wrong in the past.
I hope MPs are studying game theory for the second and last MP round of voting.
That said, I suspect you'll end up in the red.
> Boris, as the least ideological of the Leavers, is potentially positioned to do well. If I was a moderate Tory MP, my top priority would be to get the far out zealots off the final ballot. Boris fits the bill quite nicely.
>
> I hope MPs are studying game theory for the second and last MP round of voting.
MPs studying seems an unlikely concept.
I have done repeatedly. If you look back at my posts from that time and some of my thread headers.
I could live with a deal, even though departure from the EU is not my preferred option. But hijacking the result to push through something which was explicitly disavowed at the time of the referendum and for which the No Dealers have absolutely no plan is frivolously and unpardonably negligent. Worse, frankly.
The Brexiteers have shat in their own bed. They have stymied all attempts to leave in an orderly manner. They have become more and more extreme. They have no plan. They are willing to take the risk of serious economic and reputational harm to Britain. They care only about the interests of the Tory party. And when it will likely go wrong, they will blame everyone but themselves. And they will not be there to help those harmed by their idiocy.
And then they have the nerve to point at Corbyn and say that his economic proposals will harm Britain and that he is no patriot. Pots and kettles.
> https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1130733997347221504
There's a chance Boris has looked into the abyss of no-deal and is reeling away from it, or it could be that he'll say anything to anyone to get to be PM...
https://order-order.com/2019/05/20/peoples-votes-shameless-donations-hypocrisy/
https://www.peoples-vote.uk/european_elections_battle_fund
> Boris, as the least ideological of the Leavers, is potentially positioned to do well. If I was a moderate Tory MP, my top priority would be to get the far out zealots off the final ballot. Boris fits the bill quite nicely.
>
>
>
> I hope MPs are studying game theory for the second and last MP round of voting.
>
> It is supposed to be the world's most sophisticated electorate (the MPs I mean).
... as evidenced by the results? Or was that the fault of the members?
> In response to @another_richard:-
>
> I have done repeatedly. If you look back at my posts from that time and some of my thread headers.
>
> I could live with a deal, even though departure from the EU is not my preferred option. But hijacking the result to push through something which was explicitly disavowed at the time of the referendum and for which the No Dealers have absolutely no plan is frivolously and unpardonably negligent. Worse, frankly.
>
> The Brexiteers have shat in their own bed. They have stymied all attempts to leave in an orderly manner. They have become more and more extreme. They have no plan. They are willing to take the risk of serious economic and reputational harm to Britain. They care only about the interests of the Tory party. And when it will likely go wrong, they will blame everyone but themselves. And they will not be there to help those harmed by their idiocy.
>
> And then they have the nerve to point at Corbyn and say that his economic proposals will harm Britain and that he is no patriot. Pots and kettles.
Amen sister!
> https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1130733997347221504
I think the appeal of Boris may prove to be his lack of firm opinions. Wherever you are in the Tory parliamentary party, it's *possible* that Boris will prove to be your sort of PM, just because you can't rely on anything that he says remaining fixed in stone. By contrast, almost everyone else has a rigid view which is only backed by a minority. So if, for example, you're a Brexiteer and pondering whether Boris or Javid would be better, you might take a punt on Boris, since it's possible that he'll be hardline, and Javid really won't. Conversely, if you're a closet Remainer, and have to choose Boris vs Raab, you have a chance of success with Boris but none at at all with Raab.
And of course once he gets into the last 2 (or 4) he's home and dry, and if you've pledged your support you might get to be Minister for Paperclips or whatever.
Whether any of this is good for Britain is a different matter, of course. The appeal of Boris for Labour is that as things stand Corbyn would win the gravitas stakes hands down: Boris has work to do to demonstrate that he'd be a serious PM at all..
> > @Cyclefree said:
> >
> > And do you think those voters keen now on No Deal will go “Oh that’s fine. I’m happy to lose my job / see the orders to my business decrease / whatever” or will they turn round and say: “This is not what you promised.”?
> >
> > Because if it’s the latter all that the No Deal fanatics are doing is setting up a fresh betrayal narrative for the future. And how is that supposed to help?
> >
> > What I would like to understand - and have asked repeatedly - from the No Dealers (not the Remainers) how exactly they think that trade and all the other things we are currently doing under the existing laws / agreements we will fall out of if there is No Deal will happen?
> >
> > And answer comes there none. Is it too much to expect those wanting something to have a plan for how it is to come about?
> >
> > Or is this just about belief and being grateful that it won’t be as bad as WW2 (copyright: Anne Widdecombe)?
>
> All very valid.
>
> But how many times have you queried the lies and fake news pedaled by Remainers before and after the Referendum ?
>
> There reaches a point where people no longer believe warnings when so many have been proven wrong in the past.
Eventually the wolves came though, didn't they.
Not to mention, Boris has proven himself unfit for high office.
> D> @Cyclefree said:
>
> > > @Cyclefree said:
>
> >
>
> > > Hammonds remarks are a shot across the bows of the no dealers who think a no deal PM will be able to make it happen through the Commons .
>
> > Not just the Tories, increasingly most voters, Opinium at the weekend had more voters preferring No Deal to EUref2 and more voters preferring No Deal to revoke or further extension combined
>
> >
>
> > Do you really think those voters understand what an exit from the EU with no transitional agreement and an overnight exit from 700 international agreements mean? You clearly didn’t when I asked you the other day.
>
>
>
> -------------
>
>
>
> The problem that you... no to be fair the problem that WE... have is that it is not a case of people not knowing. It is a case of them not caring.
>
>
>
> They perceive that the pro-EU side has cried wolf over the claimed disasters around Brexit for so long that they no longer believe anything they say. Remain have massively overplayed their hand as far as these people are concerned and nothing they can claim as far as downsides are concerned will make any significant impact.
>
>
>
> Now obviously you can say that they will quickly find out it was not exaggeration once we do have a No Deal but by then it will already have happened.
>
> And do you think those voters keen now on No Deal will go “Oh that’s fine. I’m happy to lose my job / see the orders to my business decrease / whatever” or will they turn round and say: “This is not what you promised.”?
>
> Because if it’s the latter all that the No Deal fanatics are doing is setting up a fresh betrayal narrative for the future. And how is that supposed to help?
>
> What I would like to understand - and have asked repeatedly - from the No Dealers (not the Remainers) how exactly they think that trade and all the other things we are currently doing under the existing laws / agreements we will fall out of if there is No Deal will happen?
>
> And answer comes there none. Is it too much to expect those wanting something to have a plan for how it is to come about?
>
> Or is this just about belief and being grateful that it won’t be as bad as WW2 (copyright: Anne Widdecombe)?
Given that I am not advocating No Deal I am in no position to answer that. Nor was it the point of my comment. Indeed my whole point was that a new way needs to be found to avoid No Deal whilst still having us leave the EU because whatever they are doing at the moment just isn't working and simply shouting it louder and loader does not make it any more likely to succeed. Support for No Deal as an objective rather than an accident is apparently increasing not decreasing.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1130733997347221504
>
> I think the appeal of Boris may prove to be his lack of firm opinions. Wherever you are in the Tory parliamentary party, it's *possible* that Boris will prove to be your sort of PM, just because you can't rely on anything that he says remaining fixed in stone. By contrast, almost everyone else has a rigid view which is only backed by a minority. So if, for example, you're a Brexiteer and pondering whether Boris or Javid would be better, you might take a punt on Boris, since it's possible that he'll be hardline, and Javid really won't. Conversely, if you're a closet Remainer, and have to choose Boris vs Raab, you have a chance of success with Boris but none at at all with Raab.
>
> And of course once he gets into the last 2 (or 4) he's home and dry, and if you've pledged your support you might get to be Minister for Paperclips or whatever.
>
> Whether any of this is good for Britain is a different matter, of course. The appeal of Boris for Labour is that as things stand Corbyn would win the gravitas stakes hands down: Boris has work to do to demonstrate that he'd be a serious PM at all..
Gravitas rarely wins elections, charisma does
> > @NickPalmer said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1130733997347221504
> >
> > I think the appeal of Boris may prove to be his lack of firm opinions. Wherever you are in the Tory parliamentary party, it's *possible* that Boris will prove to be your sort of PM, just because you can't rely on anything that he says remaining fixed in stone. By contrast, almost everyone else has a rigid view which is only backed by a minority. So if, for example, you're a Brexiteer and pondering whether Boris or Javid would be better, you might take a punt on Boris, since it's possible that he'll be hardline, and Javid really won't. Conversely, if you're a closet Remainer, and have to choose Boris vs Raab, you have a chance of success with Boris but none at at all with Raab.
> >
> > And of course once he gets into the last 2 (or 4) he's home and dry, and if you've pledged your support you might get to be Minister for Paperclips or whatever.
> >
> > Whether any of this is good for Britain is a different matter, of course. The appeal of Boris for Labour is that as things stand Corbyn would win the gravitas stakes hands down: Boris has work to do to demonstrate that he'd be a serious PM at all..
>
> Gravitas rarely wins elections, charisma does
Attlee vs Churchill! Attlee won both on popular vote, although only the first in terms of seats.
Could say Heath vs Wilson, too. Heath was more 'charismatic' but Wilson won more elections.
> In response to @another_richard:-
>
> I have done repeatedly. If you look back at my posts from that time and some of my thread headers.
>
> I could live with a deal, even though departure from the EU is not my preferred option. But hijacking the result to push through something which was explicitly disavowed at the time of the referendum and for which the No Dealers have absolutely no plan is frivolously and unpardonably negligent. Worse, frankly.
>
> The Brexiteers have shat in their own bed. They have stymied all attempts to leave in an orderly manner. They have become more and more extreme. They have no plan. They are willing to take the risk of serious economic and reputational harm to Britain. They care only about the interests of the Tory party. And when it will likely go wrong, they will blame everyone but themselves. And they will not be there to help those harmed by their idiocy.
>
> And then they have the nerve to point at Corbyn and say that his economic proposals will harm Britain and that he is no patriot. Pots and kettles.
Really ? Perhaps I'm mistaken but you seem to have increasingly looked one way.
Yes, the No Dealers are irresponsible and self-obsessed but I'll tell you who have also shat the bed.
And that's those people who pedaled lies about the economy, the City, about immigration, about farming, about hate crimes because they have never accepted the Referendum result.
Try finding a PB Remainer who acknowledges they predicted a recession and now accepts they were wrong.
https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1130520751918997504
> Mr. Palmer, that seems to be the thinking of some Conservative MPs but they're making the same mistake they did when May prevaricated for months on end, just thinking she might end up going their way.
>
> Not to mention, Boris has proven himself unfit for high office.
Boris spouting the same old guff as May = same polling as May.
The next Con leader needs some conviction - not a box ticking pen.
> I think the appeal of Boris may prove to be his lack of firm opinions. Wherever you are in the Tory parliamentary party, it's *possible* that Boris will prove to be your sort of PM, just because you can't rely on anything that he says remaining fixed in stone. By contrast, almost everyone else has a rigid view which is only backed by a minority. So if, for example, you're a Brexiteer and pondering whether Boris or Javid would be better, you might take a punt on Boris, since it's possible that he'll be hardline, and Javid really won't. Conversely, if you're a closet Remainer, and have to choose Boris vs Raab, you have a chance of success with Boris but none at at all with Raab.
>
> And of course once he gets into the last 2 (or 4) he's home and dry, and if you've pledged your support you might get to be Minister for Paperclips or whatever.
>
> Whether any of this is good for Britain is a different matter, of course. The appeal of Boris for Labour is that as things stand Corbyn would win the gravitas stakes hands down: Boris has work to do to demonstrate that he'd be a serious PM at all..
>
> But you'd know exactly which one you'd prefer to go for a pint with. New politics, Nick, new politics.
As long as it was only one pint.
> > @Morris_Dancer said:
> > Mr. Palmer, that seems to be the thinking of some Conservative MPs but they're making the same mistake they did when May prevaricated for months on end, just thinking she might end up going their way.
> >
> > Not to mention, Boris has proven himself unfit for high office.
>
> Boris spouting the same old guff as May = same polling as May.
>
> The next Con leader needs some conviction - not a box ticking pen.
How about some competence ?
Up North postal vote returns are way, way higher than for the local elections.
> > @TGOHF said:
> > > @Morris_Dancer said:
> > > Mr. Palmer, that seems to be the thinking of some Conservative MPs but they're making the same mistake they did when May prevaricated for months on end, just thinking she might end up going their way.
> > >
> > > Not to mention, Boris has proven himself unfit for high office.
> >
> > Boris spouting the same old guff as May = same polling as May.
> >
> > The next Con leader needs some conviction - not a box ticking pen.
>
> How about some competence ?
Yes that too - although that can be delegated to able minions.
" I'm very happy to assume it was a prank or incompetence on my part. "
What a bizarrely worded tweet.
They have direct and current experience of how difficult it is having a PM who cannot be trusted and has changes of mind without rhyme or reason. Having another one is just bloody stupid.
> For those betting on the EU elections - 1 comment from the weekend.
>
> Up North postal vote returns are way, way higher than for the local elections.
That should probably reduce TBP percentages... Could indeed be Remainers coming out.
> "The Queen told a leading German ambassador that Britain’s future “lies in Europe”, according to state documents."
Well, she's got a handle on the geography at least.
> > @eek said:
> > For those betting on the EU elections - 1 comment from the weekend.
> >
> > Up North postal vote returns are way, way higher than for the local elections.
>
> That should probably reduce TBP percentages... Could indeed be Remainers coming out.
I believe oldies are more likely to have postal votes.
Also working class turnout is usually lower.
That might suggest working class oldies are voting in increased numbers.
> > @eek said:
> > For those betting on the EU elections - 1 comment from the weekend.
> >
> > Up North postal vote returns are way, way higher than for the local elections.
>
> That should probably reduce TBP percentages... Could indeed be Remainers coming out.
Alternatively it could be the Brexiteers that didn't have a party to vote for in the locals and sat on their hands.
Damn.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @NickPalmer said:
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1130733997347221504
> > >
> > > I think the appeal of Boris may prove to be his lack of firm opinions. Wherever you are in the Tory parliamentary party, it's *possible* that Boris will prove to be your sort of PM, just because you can't rely on anything that he says remaining fixed in stone. By contrast, almost everyone else has a rigid view which is only backed by a minority. So if, for example, you're a Brexiteer and pondering whether Boris or Javid would be better, you might take a punt on Boris, since it's possible that he'll be hardline, and Javid really won't. Conversely, if you're a closet Remainer, and have to choose Boris vs Raab, you have a chance of success with Boris but none at at all with Raab.
> > >
> > > And of course once he gets into the last 2 (or 4) he's home and dry, and if you've pledged your support you might get to be Minister for Paperclips or whatever.
> > >
> > > Whether any of this is good for Britain is a different matter, of course. The appeal of Boris for Labour is that as things stand Corbyn would win the gravitas stakes hands down: Boris has work to do to demonstrate that he'd be a serious PM at all..
> >
> > Gravitas rarely wins elections, charisma does
>
> Attlee vs Churchill! Attlee won both on popular vote, although only the first in terms of seats.
> Could say Heath vs Wilson, too. Heath was more 'charismatic' but Wilson won more elections.
Attlee won twice in terms of seats - 1945 & 1950. Wilson was seen as far more charismatic than Heath..
> > @Cicero said:
> > > @eek said:
> > > For those betting on the EU elections - 1 comment from the weekend.
> > >
> > > Up North postal vote returns are way, way higher than for the local elections.
> >
> > That should probably reduce TBP percentages... Could indeed be Remainers coming out.
>
> I believe oldies are more likely to have postal votes.
>
> Also working class turnout is usually lower.
>
> That might suggest working class oldies are voting in increased numbers.
> @another_richard said:
> > @Cicero said:
> > > @eek said:
> > > For those betting on the EU elections - 1 comment from the weekend.
> > >
> > > Up North postal vote returns are way, way higher than for the local elections.
> >
> > That should probably reduce TBP percentages... Could indeed be Remainers coming out.
>
> I believe oldies are more likely to have postal votes.
>
> Also working class turnout is usually lower.
>
> That might suggest working class oldies are voting in increased numbers.
The middle class will dominate these elections.
Could still help The Brexit party tho. It is Smyth to say most LEAVE voters were poor.
> For those betting on the EU elections - 1 comment from the weekend.
>
> Up North postal vote returns are way, way higher than for the local elections.
Which area is this, please?