You can stick your tits and dragons where the sun doesn't shine...The Wire is still the best tv show ever. As for House of Cards, that last season is still too highly rated!!!!
> @Benpointer said: > > @dixiedean said: > > > > @Stark_Dawning said: > > > > Questions reposted from previous thread. This week's euros are a disaster for the Conservatives. Brexit Party triumphant. May goes at last. New Tory leader elected to deliver Brexit and move on from the awful mess. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Will they deliver Brexit? And how? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What difference will the rise of the Brexit Party make? > > > > > > > > Nigel's triumph will absolutely terrify the Tories into No Deal. They will see any further dalliance with the EU as being utterly toxic, and the leadership campaign will be a veritable Mr Universe parade for Hard Brexit. Of course, the economic fallout over No Deal will probably destroy them, and the Brexit Party will take their place, but the madness now seems unstoppable to me. > > > > > > But that doesn't explain how they will get it through HofC? Without a GE of course. Which they will need to win a majority in. > > > Oops. Ben made the very same point. > > > > > > They don't need to. It's the legal default. Unless we ask for and get an extension or we revoke or pass the WA by 31 October, on that day the Article 50 period comes to an end and we are out of the EU. > > This is the same argument many were making before March 29, and before April 12. It's no more likely to be allowed to happen by the HoC in October than it was then.
As with both those cases it depends entirely on the EU and what they decide. It is not in the hands of Parliament to change that unless they actually pass something that supersedes No Deal. Are you really feeling confident that the EU will continue to allow extensions without something fundamental changing?
> @Gallowgate said: > Indeed and the Brexit Party will win huge victories in almost all those local authority areas on Thursday > > Define ‘huge victory’?
The Brexit Party will win every single northern and midlands local council area that voted Leave and when those Labour MPs come back from those counts in their areas on Thursday having seen Labour trounced by Farage's Party many will start to panic, indeed YouGov today has the Brexit Party just 2% behind Labour in a Welsh WESTMINSTER poll and Wales is Labour's historic heartland, home of Keir Hardie
> @Cyclefree said: > Hammonds remarks are a shot across the bows of the no dealers who think a no deal PM will be able to make it happen through the Commons . > > > > The only way to no deal is through a referendum or general election . > > > > The only thing Labour re Brexit are united on is to stop a no deal . There are at max 5 MPs who would vote for no deal . > > > > Added together with ardent no dealers on the opposition and those in the Tory party and a way will be found to stop it . > > Unless a way is found to repeal the legislation which takes us out of the EU on 31 October automatically, No Deal will happen. > > How can backbenchers do this if the government is committed to No Deal? > > I really don’t want No Deal to happen but the Tories seem determined in their blind panic to impose this on us.
Not just the Tories, increasingly most voters, Opinium at the weekend had more voters preferring No Deal to EUref2 and more voters preferring No Deal to revoke or further extension combined
> @TGOHF said: > Hammonds remarks are a shot across the bows of the no dealers who think a no deal PM will be able to make it happen through the Commons . > > > > The only way to no deal is through a referendum or general election . > > > > The only thing Labour re Brexit are united on is to stop a no deal . There are at max 5 MPs who would vote for no deal . > > > > Added together with ardent no dealers on the opposition and those in the Tory party and a way will be found to stop it . > > Hammond is supported by himself and his mum. And she might be wavering. Last squawk of a Norwegian blue parrot.
This isn’t about a Hammond leadership challenge , he has no chance . But do you seriously think Tories who refuse to accept no deal are going to just sit there and do nothing . The ERG had 80 odd causing probs but you only need 20 Tories to side with the opposition to cause any new PM a lot of trouble .
> @Benpointer said: > > @Benpointer said: > > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > > > > > @ah009 said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I'm reminded of what Churchill said when asked about fighting on the same side as Stalin. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I might disagree with Thatcher about whether Allende was a greater evil that required standing behind Pinochet, but I can see how that sort of argument might lead one to support an evil, to defeat a perceived greater evil, without one being evil themselves. It's probably to her credit that she stuck to that position and was loyal to Pinochet later, rather than turning against him once his use was past. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It's the same sort of argument that many will use to justify their vote for Corbyn and his merry band of anti-semites. I wonder whether Labour Party members will continue to stand behind Corbyn when they no longer need him to fight the greater Tory evil? > > > > > > > > > > > > There was no reason for Thatcher to say what she did. She could perfectly well have said that Chile had helped Britain during the Falklands War, that we were grateful for that help but that no one is above the law and that the legal process in Britain and Spain and Chile should be allowed to run its course without any interference from politicians. > > > > > > > > > > > > That is what a decent thoughtful politician would have said not rushed to embrace Pinochet as if he were her best friend. > > > > > > I am no supporter of Thatcher - far from it - but is it not probable that she was already suffering the early effects of dementia by the late 90s and that that affected her decision-making? > > > > That may be the case. In which those around her advising her did her no favours. Someone will have seen the speech she wrote. Why did they not stop her if they thought she was not of sound mind at the time? > > Now there is a question which could be asked of the advisors and supporters of many powerful people through history. The answer seems to be that the acolytes are in thrall to leader. > > Apologies for succumbing to Godwin's Law* but why didn't Hitler's advisers stop him invading Russia in 1941?
Because basically all of those in his inner circle who he would listen to shared his lunatic vision. The one big exception was Goring who thought it was a stupid thing to do but who went along with it for fear of being sidelined by Hitler and seeing others gain more power at his expense.
The people who really objected - the Generals - had no power what so ever to influence those major strategic decisions.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Gallowgate said: > > Indeed and the Brexit Party will win huge victories in almost all those local authority areas on Thursday > > > > Define ‘huge victory’? > > The Brexit Party will win every single northern and midlands local council area that voted Leave and when those Labour MPs come back from those counts in their areas on Thursday having seen Labour trounced by Farage's Party many will start to panic, indeed YouGov today has the Brexit Party just 2% behind Labour in a Welsh WESTMINSTER poll and Wales is Labour's historic heartland, home of Keir Hardie
Labour are going to be trounced by second vote parties not the BP. They are losing double Remain votes to Leave votes .
> Hammonds remarks are a shot across the bows of the no dealers who think a no deal PM will be able to make it happen through the Commons .
>
>
>
> The only way to no deal is through a referendum or general election .
>
>
>
> The only thing Labour re Brexit are united on is to stop a no deal . There are at max 5 MPs who would vote for no deal .
>
>
>
> Added together with ardent no dealers on the opposition and those in the Tory party and a way will be found to stop it .
>
> Unless a way is found to repeal the legislation which takes us out of the EU on 31 October automatically, No Deal will happen.
>
> How can backbenchers do this if the government is committed to No Deal?
>
> I really don’t want No Deal to happen but the Tories seem determined in their blind panic to impose this on us.
Not just the Tories, increasingly most voters, Opinium at the weekend had more voters preferring No Deal to EUref2 and more voters preferring No Deal to revoke or further extension combined
Do you really think those voters understand what an exit from the EU with no transitional agreement and an overnight exit from 700 international agreements mean? You clearly didn’t when I asked you the other day.
> Hammonds remarks are a shot across the bows of the no dealers who think a no deal PM will be able to make it happen through the Commons .
>
>
>
> The only way to no deal is through a referendum or general election .
>
>
>
> The only thing Labour re Brexit are united on is to stop a no deal . There are at max 5 MPs who would vote for no deal .
>
>
>
> Added together with ardent no dealers on the opposition and those in the Tory party and a way will be found to stop it .
>
> Unless a way is found to repeal the legislation which takes us out of the EU on 31 October automatically, No Deal will happen.
>
> How can backbenchers do this if the government is committed to No Deal?
>
> I really don’t want No Deal to happen but the Tories seem determined in their blind panic to impose this on us.
Not just the Tories, increasingly most voters, Opinium at the weekend had more voters preferring No Deal to EUref2 and more voters preferring No Deal to revoke or further extension combined
Do you really think those voters understand what an exit from the EU with no transitional agreement and an overnight exit from 700 international agreements mean? You clearly didn’t when I asked you the other day.
It just doesn't work, most of them get thrown out after a year for failing mods/prelims. And the only solution to that that I can see is to accept lower grades for them at mods, and again at finals. I don't think that is going to happen.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > Hammonds remarks are a shot across the bows of the no dealers who think a no deal PM will be able to make it happen through the Commons . > > > > > > > > > > > > The only way to no deal is through a referendum or general election . > > > > > > > > > > > > The only thing Labour re Brexit are united on is to stop a no deal . There are at max 5 MPs who would vote for no deal . > > > > > > > > > > > > Added together with ardent no dealers on the opposition and those in the Tory party and a way will be found to stop it . > > > > > > Unless a way is found to repeal the legislation which takes us out of the EU on 31 October automatically, No Deal will happen. > > > > > > How can backbenchers do this if the government is committed to No Deal? > > > > > > I really don’t want No Deal to happen but the Tories seem determined in their blind panic to impose this on us. > > > > Not just the Tories, increasingly most voters, Opinium at the weekend had more voters preferring No Deal to EUref2 and more voters preferring No Deal to revoke or further extension combined > > Do you really think those voters understand what an exit from the EU with no transitional agreement and an overnight exit from 700 international agreements mean? You clearly didn’t when I asked you the other day.
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The problem that you... no to be fair the problem that WE... have is that it is not a case of people not knowing. It is a case of them not caring.
They perceive that the pro-EU side has cried wolf over the claimed disasters around Brexit for so long that they no longer believe anything they say. Remain have massively overplayed their hand as far as these people are concerned and nothing they can claim as far as downsides are concerned will make any significant impact.
Now obviously you can say that they will quickly find out it was not exaggeration once we do have a No Deal but by then it will already have happened.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Gallowgate said: > > Indeed and the Brexit Party will win huge victories in almost all those local authority areas on Thursday > > > > Define ‘huge victory’? > > The Brexit Party will win every single northern and midlands local council area that voted Leave and when those Labour MPs come back from those counts in their areas on Thursday having seen Labour trounced by Farage's Party many will start to panic, indeed YouGov today has the Brexit Party just 2% behind Labour in a Welsh WESTMINSTER poll and Wales is Labour's historic heartland, home of Keir Hardie
Based on those poll projections assuming uniform swing the Brexit party would get no seats in Wales despite polling second. Labour despite winning only 2% more than the BP would win 24 seats and the Tories with 6 percent less would win 9. Plaid and the LDs would win 5 and 2 seats each on barely half the BP's vote share.
Not sure if our politics are broken but perhaps our electoral system is!
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > Hammonds remarks are a shot across the bows of the no dealers who think a no deal PM will be able to make it happen through the Commons . > > > > > > > > > > > > The only way to no deal is through a referendum or general election . > > > > > > > > > > > > The only thing Labour re Brexit are united on is to stop a no deal . There are at max 5 MPs who would vote for no deal . > > > > > > > > > > > > Added together with ardent no dealers on the opposition and those in the Tory party and a way will be found to stop it . > > > > > > Unless a way is found to repeal the legislation which takes us out of the EU on 31 October automatically, No Deal will happen. > > > > > > How can backbenchers do this if the government is committed to No Deal? > > > > > > I really don’t want No Deal to happen but the Tories seem determined in their blind panic to impose this on us. > > > > Not just the Tories, increasingly most voters, Opinium at the weekend had more voters preferring No Deal to EUref2 and more voters preferring No Deal to revoke or further extension combined > > Do you really think those voters understand what an exit from the EU with no transitional agreement and an overnight exit from 700 international agreements mean? You clearly didn’t when I asked you the other day.
They do, they understand they voted to Leave and MPs have ignored them and are quite prepared to go to No Deal and WTO terms if necessary if they still refuse to implement Brexit until future agreements are arranged.
Patronising hectoring from the likes of you will just increase their resolve
> @nico67 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > Indeed and the Brexit Party will win huge victories in almost all those local authority areas on Thursday > > > > > > Define ‘huge victory’? > > > > The Brexit Party will win every single northern and midlands local council area that voted Leave and when those Labour MPs come back from those counts in their areas on Thursday having seen Labour trounced by Farage's Party many will start to panic, indeed YouGov today has the Brexit Party just 2% behind Labour in a Welsh WESTMINSTER poll and Wales is Labour's historic heartland, home of Keir Hardie > > Labour are going to be trounced by second vote parties not the BP. They are losing double Remain votes to Leave votes .
Nope, not in Labour Leave seats and not amongst the working class.
There it is the Brexit Party making all the headway
> @brendan16 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > Indeed and the Brexit Party will win huge victories in almost all those local authority areas on Thursday > > > > > > Define ‘huge victory’? > > > > The Brexit Party will win every single northern and midlands local council area that voted Leave and when those Labour MPs come back from those counts in their areas on Thursday having seen Labour trounced by Farage's Party many will start to panic, indeed YouGov today has the Brexit Party just 2% behind Labour in a Welsh WESTMINSTER poll and Wales is Labour's historic heartland, home of Keir Hardie > > Based on those poll projections assuming uniform swing the Brexit party would get no seats in Wales despite polling second. Labour despite winning only 2% more than the BP would win 24 seats and the Tories with 6 percent less would win 9. Plaid and the LDs would win 5 and 2 seats each on barely half the BP's vote share. > > Not sure if our politics are broken but perhaps our electoral system is!
Depends which polls you look at, some polls already have the Brexit Party on over 90 seats and once the BP overtake Labour as they already have done for the European elections Labour Leave seats will fall like skittles to Farage.
Indeed the first Westminster poll to have the Brexit Party leading both the Tories and Labour may appear within a fortnight after the Brexit Party win the European elections
> @DavidL said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > Here’s a question: which regions will the Conservatives hold up best in, proportionately? If their remaining voters are Remaining voters, does that imply the south east, the south west and the north west? > > Scotland. Beyond any doubt. Because of Ruth and the bigger picture against the SNP.
He can afford to given Baker now seems to be the candidate for the No Deal ultra hard Brexiteers within the ERG.
If Boris builds up a big enough lead amongst MPs could even end up a Boris v Baker final two sent to the membership, a bit like the GOP primary ended up Trump v Cruz in 2016 with Hunt and Javid facing Jeb Bush and Rubio's fate
> @thecommissioner said: > Voting Brexit Party increases the chance of No Deal happening. But it also increases the chance of the government falling altogether. > > > > Now, one could argue that the current government doesn't deserve to continue (and that's not an unreasonable argument), but in that event a General Election moves from a possibility to a probability, and that will end up being a proxy second referendum. > > > > Be careful, in other words, what you wish for. > > I think increasing the chances of No Deal increases the chances of MPs passing a deal > > Labour have mostly maintained their unity/discipline when voting thus far. I would expect that to go out of the window after Thursday as the regional results show wild variations in Leave/Remain in different Labour areas. The overall losses will undermine Corbyn to the extent that Labour will be back in pre-GE17 mode.
Not if turnout is circa 35% in an election widely viewed in a frivolous light.
Pinochet played a crucial role in helping Britain in the Falklands War
Chile played a role but it certainly wasn't crucial. The most significant act was delaying their planned acquisition of the RFA Tidepool so it could be used in the war. They gave far less help than was requested by the UK government when it came to operating Nimrod MR2/Canberra PR9 from Punta Arenas. The RAF did one MR2 sortie from San Felix then the Chileans shut the whole thing down.
Pinochet played a crucial role in helping Britain in the Falklands War
Chile played a role but it certainly wasn't crucial. The most significant act was delaying their planned acquisition of the RFA Tidepool so it could be used in the war. They gave far less help than was requested by the UK government when it came to operating Nimrod MR2/Canberra PR9 from Punta Arenas. The RAF did one MR2 sortie from San Felix then the Chileans shut the whole thing down.
What I’ve read suggests that Argentina kept their elite mountain units to guard against a possible invasion by Chile in the south, rather than deploying them to the Falklands. Not sure how accurate that is though.
Pinochet played a crucial role in helping Britain in the Falklands War
Chile played a role but it certainly wasn't crucial. The most significant act was delaying their planned acquisition of the RFA Tidepool so it could be used in the war. They gave far less help than was requested by the UK government when it came to operating Nimrod MR2/Canberra PR9 from Punta Arenas. The RAF did one MR2 sortie from San Felix then the Chileans shut the whole thing down.
What I’ve read suggests that Argentina kept their elite mountain units to guard against a possible invasion by Chile in the south, rather than deploying them to the Falklands. Not sure how accurate that is though.
They already had more troops (10,000+) on the Falkands than could be adequately provisioned by the the nightly Rivadavia to Stanley C-130 air bridge. Deploying more troops to the FI wasn't an option even if they were available.
Pinochet played a crucial role in helping Britain in the Falklands War
Chile played a role but it certainly wasn't crucial. The most significant act was delaying their planned acquisition of the RFA Tidepool so it could be used in the war. They gave far less help than was requested by the UK government when it came to operating Nimrod MR2/Canberra PR9 from Punta Arenas. The RAF did one MR2 sortie from San Felix then the Chileans shut the whole thing down.
What I’ve read suggests that Argentina kept their elite mountain units to guard against a possible invasion by Chile in the south, rather than deploying them to the Falklands. Not sure how accurate that is though.
They already had more troops (10,000+) on the Falkands than could be adequately provisioned by the the nightly Rivadavia to Stanley C-130 air bridge. Deploying more troops to the FI wasn't an option even if they were available.
Doesn’t mean they couldn’t have replaced some grunts....
> @kle4 said: > The LDs carried 4 areas in 2014: Orkney, Shetland, South Lakeland and Gibraltar. > > I must visit south Lakeland one day, to discover why it seems to be the most lib dem place in the country, certainly in England.
Because former leader Tim Farron is the MP. Before that it was safely Conservative; without Farron it could well return to being so. I think the Tories were very complacent there for many years, not bothering to campaign and keep canvassing records, etc.
> Hammonds remarks are a shot across the bows of the no dealers who think a no deal PM will be able to make it happen through the Commons .
>
>
>
> The only way to no deal is through a referendum or general election .
>
>
>
> The only thing Labour re Brexit are united on is to stop a no deal . There are at max 5 MPs who would vote for no deal .
>
>
>
> Added together with ardent no dealers on the opposition and those in the Tory party and a way will be found to stop it .
>
> Unless a way is found to repeal the legislation which takes us out of the EU on 31 October automatically, No Deal will happen.
>
> How can backbenchers do this if the government is committed to No Deal?
>
> I really don’t want No Deal to happen but the Tories seem determined in their blind panic to impose this on us.
Not just the Tories, increasingly most voters, Opinium at the weekend had more voters preferring No Deal to EUref2 and more voters preferring No Deal to revoke or further extension combined
Do you really think those voters understand what an exit from the EU with no transitional agreement and an overnight exit from 700 international agreements mean? You clearly didn’t when I asked you the other day.
They might not but parliament does not care about what they think anyway or they'd cut a deal already, the easiest way to immediately see how many truly want no deal.
Parliamentary remainers all along have been perfectly happy to risk no deal to get what they want, which shows they dont understand or dont care about the challenges of no deal either.
Which is fair enough, remain is a reasonable goal, if only they were honest that they are happy to risk no deal, given most still wont admit they want to revoke and therefore it is not purely in our gift to avoid no deal without signing the deal.
> The LDs carried 4 areas in 2014: Orkney, Shetland, South Lakeland and Gibraltar.
>
> I must visit south Lakeland one day, to discover why it seems to be the most lib dem place in the country, certainly in England.
Because former leader Tim Farron is the MP. Before that it was safely Conservative; without Farron it could well return to being so. I think the Tories were very complacent there for many years, not bothering to campaign and keep canvassing records, etc.
There are many areas which have or had LD MPs, some with larger majorities than Farron. Why of all of them is south Lakeland so loyal?
> Boris showing some leg to Remainer MPs to try and get on the ballot of the final two.
>
>
The values colour scheme looks very Brexit Party-ish
Well it was not a coincidence the Brexit party went with a shade of blue, I'm sure. Probably helps subconsciously when making a big change for it not to seem like a big change and the Tories are the low hanging fruit of gaining support - christ, I bet most of their voters insist the Brexit party are the real Tories even though they literally only have one policy.
A legend, and someone who got 43 years more of life than could have reasonably been expected. His recovery from the Nurburgring crash was amazing, and to be back racing a few months later was incredible.
> @kle4 said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > Hammonds remarks are a shot across the bows of the no dealers who think a no deal PM will be able to make it happen through the Commons . > > > > > > > > > > > > The only way to no deal is through a referendum or general election . > > > > > > > > > > > > The only thing Labour re Brexit are united on is to stop a no deal . There are at max 5 MPs who would vote for no deal . > > > > > > > > > > > > Added together with ardent no dealers on the opposition and those in the Tory party and a way will be found to stop it . > > > > > > Unless a way is found to repeal the legislation which takes us out of the EU on 31 October automatically, No Deal will happen. > > > > > > How can backbenchers do this if the government is committed to No Deal? > > > > > > I really don’t want No Deal to happen but the Tories seem determined in their blind panic to impose this on us. > > > > Not just the Tories, increasingly most voters, Opinium at the weekend had more voters preferring No Deal to EUref2 and more voters preferring No Deal to revoke or further extension combined > > Do you really think those voters understand what an exit from the EU with no transitional agreement and an overnight exit from 700 international agreements mean? You clearly didn’t when I asked you the other day. > > They might not but parliament does not care about what they think anyway or they'd cut a deal already, the easiest way to immediately see how many truly want no deal. > > Parliamentary remainers all along have been perfectly happy to risk no deal to get what they want, which shows they dont understand or dont care about the challenges of no deal either. > > Which is fair enough, remain is a reasonable goal, if only they were honest that they are happy to risk no deal, given most still wont admit they want to revoke and therefore it is not purely in our gift to avoid no deal without signing the deal.
Of course it is, if you know deep down that a majority would go for revoke if the only alternative were to become a no deal exit. Until then there is always the alternative of more time, as the EU also understands.
> @HYUFD said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1130595759768920065?s=20 > > > > Boris showing some leg to Remainer MPs to try and get on the ballot of the final two. > > > > > > He can afford to given Baker now seems to be the candidate for the No Deal ultra hard Brexiteers within the ERG. > > If Boris builds up a big enough lead amongst MPs could even end up a Boris v Baker final two sent to the membership, a bit like the GOP primary ended up Trump v Cruz in 2016 with Hunt and Javid facing Jeb Bush and Rubio's fate
> > Hammonds remarks are a shot across the bows of the no dealers who think a no deal PM will be able to make it happen through the Commons .
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > The only way to no deal is through a referendum or general election .
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > The only thing Labour re Brexit are united on is to stop a no deal . There are at max 5 MPs who would vote for no deal .
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Added together with ardent no dealers on the opposition and those in the Tory party and a way will be found to stop it .
>
> >
>
> > Unless a way is found to repeal the legislation which takes us out of the EU on 31 October automatically, No Deal will happen.
>
> >
>
> > How can backbenchers do this if the government is committed to No Deal?
>
> >
>
> > I really don’t want No Deal to happen but the Tories seem determined in their blind panic to impose this on us.
>
>
>
> Not just the Tories, increasingly most voters, Opinium at the weekend had more voters preferring No Deal to EUref2 and more voters preferring No Deal to sked you the other day.
>
> They might not but parliament does not care about what they think anyway or they'd cut a deal already, the easiest way to immediately see how many truly want no deal.
>
> Parliamentary remainers all along have been perfectly happy to risk no deal to get what they want, which shows they dont understand or dont care about the challenges of no deal either.
>
> Which is fair enough, remain is a reasonable e deal.
Of course it is, if you know deep down that a majority would go for revoke if the only alternative were to become a no deal exit. Until then there is always the alternative of more time, as the EU also understands.
I know they would that was my point. They are either dishonest about their opposition risking no deal or they are dishonest about that the plan is to revoke if needs be. They're getting there, but at present most still pretend their arguments support a stance of referendum when in fact it supports revoke.
> @kle4 said: > > @kle4 said: > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > Hammonds remarks are a shot across the bows of the no dealers who think a no deal PM will be able to make it happen through the Commons . > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The only way to no deal is through a referendum or general election . > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The only thing Labour re Brexit are united on is to stop a no deal . There are at max 5 MPs who would vote for no deal . > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Added together with ardent no dealers on the opposition and those in the Tory party and a way will be found to stop it . > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Unless a way is found to repeal the legislation which takes us out of the EU on 31 October automatically, No Deal will happen. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > How can backbenchers do this if the government is committed to No Deal? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I really don’t want No Deal to happen but the Tories seem determined in their blind panic to impose this on us. > > > > > > > > > > > > Not just the Tories, increasingly most voters, Opinium at the weekend had more voters preferring No Deal to EUref2 and more voters preferring No Deal to sked you the other day. > > > > > > They might not but parliament does not care about what they think anyway or they'd cut a deal already, the easiest way to immediately see how many truly want no deal. > > > > > > Parliamentary remainers all along have been perfectly happy to risk no deal to get what they want, which shows they dont understand or dont care about the challenges of no deal either. > > > > > > Which is fair enough, remain is a reasonable e deal. > > > > Of course it is, if you know deep down that a majority would go for revoke if the only alternative were to become a no deal exit. Until then there is always the alternative of more time, as the EU also understands. > > I know they would that was my point. They are either dishonest about their opposition risking no deal or they are dishonest about that the plan is to revoke if needs be. They're getting there, but at present most still pretend their arguments support a stance of referendum when in fact it supports revoke.
One could turn your original argument around, then, and wonder why parliamentary leavers are willing to risk revoke by resisting proposals for a people’s vote on any deal?
> @IanB2 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1130595759768920065?s=20 > > > > > > Boris showing some leg to Remainer MPs to try and get on the ballot of the final two. > > > > > > > > > > He can afford to given Baker now seems to be the candidate for the No Deal ultra hard Brexiteers within the ERG. > > > > If Boris builds up a big enough lead amongst MPs could even end up a Boris v Baker final two sent to the membership, a bit like the GOP primary ended up Trump v Cruz in 2016 with Hunt and Javid facing Jeb Bush and Rubio's fate > > Another absurd HY prediction.
Boris always brings to my mind a Kirsty MacColl song, the relevant verse of which is 'There's a guy works down the chip shop swears he's Elvis Just like you swore to me that you'd be true There's a guy works down the chip shop swears he's Elvis But he's a liar and I'm not sure about you'
One could turn your original argument around, then, and wonder why parliamentary leavers are willing to risk revoke by resisting proposals for a people’s vote on any deal?
A legend, and someone who got 43 years more of life than could have reasonably been expected. His recovery from the Nurburgring crash was amazing, and to be back racing a few months later was incredible.
Sad news indeed, but as you say he certainly lived a very full life.
My attention has been drawn.... ie it's coem up on my Facebook page..... to a piece in the Indy,
'Change UK can help defeat hard Brexit – but not how you’d expect By re-distributing just 2 per cent of voters from the weakest to the strongest Remain party in each region, the pro-European side could snatch victory from the jaws of supposedly inevitable ‘defeat’'
See the 'Voices' pages on the web.
I've tended to agree with those who thought that Change's MP's didn't learn the lesson of the 80's. I just hope they find it easy to get gainful employment after the next election. Sarah Wollaston will be OK, of course!
> @OldKingCole said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1130595759768920065?s=20 > > > > > > > > Boris showing some leg to Remainer MPs to try and get on the ballot of the final two. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > He can afford to given Baker now seems to be the candidate for the No Deal ultra hard Brexiteers within the ERG. > > > > > > If Boris builds up a big enough lead amongst MPs could even end up a Boris v Baker final two sent to the membership, a bit like the GOP primary ended up Trump v Cruz in 2016 with Hunt and Javid facing Jeb Bush and Rubio's fate > > > > Another absurd HY prediction. > > Boris always brings to my mind a Kirsty MacColl song, the relevant verse of which is > 'There's a guy works down the chip shop swears he's Elvis > Just like you swore to me that you'd be true > There's a guy works down the chip shop swears he's Elvis > But he's a liar and I'm not sure about you'
I didn't see, make everyday the first day of spring. Worthless platitudes. Almost everyone could say they stand for these values. It how you try to achieve these aims that matter.
> @AndyJS said: > Does Gordon Brown believe UKIP are the only party that uses PayPal for donations?
The Leave campaign is under investigation for impermissible donations. Aroun Banks, major funder of Leave, and apparently the Brexit Party, is under investigation for impermissible donations, possibly linked to his close relationship to Russian government officials. One of the major fund raisers for the Brexit Party was convicted in the US for money laundering. As I understand it, TBP received clear warnings from the Electoral Commission. If those warnings were ignored, then Farage is in very hot water, not cold milk shake.
> > Boris showing some leg to Remainer MPs to try and get on the ballot of the final two.
> >
> >
>
> And he is an inveterate liar.
He was a Remain Mayor of London. Londoners are unlikely to forget that.
Boris’s plays are pretty transparent.
This tells you he’s genuinely worried about getting into the final two, and doesn’t believe he can rely upon the Brexiteer caucus.
We know hes worries about that because his outsiders have moaned several times in the last few months about how the rules should be changed to put more names to the members, a transparent and very entitled attitude.
> Does Gordon Brown believe UKIP are the only party that uses PayPal for donations?
The Leave campaign is under investigation for impermissible donations.
Aroun Banks, major funder of Leave, and apparently the Brexit Party, is under investigation for impermissible donations, possibly linked to his close relationship to Russian government officials.
One of the major fund raisers for the Brexit Party was convicted in the US for money laundering.
As I understand it, TBP received clear warnings from the Electoral Commission. If those warnings were ignored, then Farage is in very hot water, not cold milk shake.
If he’s got 100,000+ registered supporters each donating £25 by signing up then he’s got £2.5m via that route, which is a heck of lot.
I don’t know how much Banks and Tice have given (probably a fair bit) but that isn’t really news, and they’ve been doing so for years.
But Britain has always been prepared to work with undemocratic regimes in order to further the national interest, or stop a greater foe. Always, probably with zero break since the 18th century or earlier, we are working with someone unsavoury in the world. If you stop doing that, great. If you want to continue doing it, it's impolitic to chuck these people under a bus when you've finished with them.
Britain did not chuck Chile under a bus by allowing the rule of law to operate in Britain.
No it didn't, but it did chuck Pinochet under a bus. There's no doubt he had it coming, but those are the facts. If I were a third world dictator being courted by the UK, that would give me pause for thought.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @Mango said: > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1130595759768920065 > > > > > > > > > > Boris showing some leg to Remainer MPs to try and get on the ballot of the final two. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > And he is an inveterate liar. > > > > He was a Remain Mayor of London. Londoners are unlikely to forget that. > > Boris’s plays are pretty transparent. > > This tells you he’s genuinely worried about getting into the final two, and doesn’t believe he can rely upon the Brexiteer caucus.
And this is where the hustings will be so important. Boris must realise he cannot achieve his goal by pandering to the 30 or so Spartans but must appeal to a wider audience.
The idea the run off will be between Boris and Baker is for the birds. I expect Boris may be able to get himself into the last two but I would not be surprised to see one of the ladies as the other choice
Mr. Punter, that's an interesting observation on London remembering Boris was a Remainer when he was mayor.
A related problem he'll face from people who aren't Conservative members (ie almost everyone) is that elsewhere, he might well be looked on as very much a London politician. Given there's already some tension over various things (transport funding being high on the list) that might hamper him in other parts of the UK, depending how things go.
> Does Gordon Brown believe UKIP are the only party that uses PayPal for donations?
The Leave campaign is under investigation for impermissible donations.
Aroun Banks, major funder of Leave, and apparently the Brexit Party, is under investigation for impermissible donations, possibly linked to his close relationship to Russian government officials.
One of the major fund raisers for the Brexit Party was convicted in the US for money laundering.
As I understand it, TBP received clear warnings from the Electoral Commission. If those warnings were ignored, then Farage is in very hot water, not cold milk shake.
Just the Trump was going to be in trouble because of Mueller.
Boris Johnson’s challenge is less in the late stages, though that’s not a cakewalk, but in the early stages. If five true believers stand, it’s not at all clear that he will be the last one of them standing. All the signs are that he is few people’s first choice.
> > The justification is, Britain's foreign policy through the centuries, with some justification, has had a reputation of selling its friends to buy its enemies. Thatcher's continued loyalty to Pinochet seen in this light was the right thing to do - a signal that Britain sticks by those who help.
>
>
>
> I'm pretty sure that's the same moral code under which the mafia operate. The question under scrutiny here was whether Thatcher was evil; I'm not sure which side of that debate you're helping more.
>
> Thatcher always operated from a firm belief in doing what she considered to be in Britain's national interest. Which I think is what we (I'm assuming you are) as British citizens would want.
It wasn't really in Britain's interests for its former PM to attack the rule of law and its application to her illustrious friend. But even if I were to believe that it was, doing something in the interests of ones own group — a country in this case, the mob in the case of the mafia — which goes against the rule of law is hardly a yardstick for goodness. In fact, I'd suggest that law breaking is strongly correlated with evil.
Not that I'd like to be absolutist about that: there are noble reasons for breaking the law, and sometimes it's imperative to do so. But when it comes to trying to get a fascist off the hook because they helped you in a war, it doesn't feel quite as noble as breaking the speed limit to get an injured person to hospital.
> @JosiasJessop said: > RIP Niki Lauda. > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48345660 > > A legend, and someone who got 43 years more of life than could have reasonably been expected. His recovery from the Nurburgring crash was amazing, and to be back racing a few months later was incredible.
Didn’t know he’d also had two kidney transplants.
In a safer era, he’d quite possibly have challenged Schumacher’s number of titles. The remarkable recovery tends to obscure just how good a driver he was.
Mr. Punter, that's an interesting observation on London remembering Boris was a Remainer when he was mayor.
A related problem he'll face from people who aren't Conservative members (ie almost everyone) is that elsewhere, he might well be looked on as very much a London politician. Given there's already some tension over various things (transport funding being high on the list) that might hamper him in other parts of the UK, depending how things go.
I’m still not sure that Boris has 100 MPs willing to back him, he could well come third or even fourth in the first stage of the election.
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > > > > But Britain has always been prepared to work with undemocratic regimes in order to further the national interest, or stop a greater foe. Always, probably with zero break since the 18th century or earlier, we are working with someone unsavoury in the world. If you stop doing that, great. If you want to continue doing it, it's impolitic to chuck these people under a bus when you've finished with them. > > Britain did not chuck Chile under a bus by allowing the rule of law to operate in Britain. > > No it didn't, but it did chuck Pinochet under a bus. There's no doubt he had it coming, but those are the facts. If I were a third world dictator being courted by the UK, that would give me pause for thought.
And that’s a bad thing ?
There was no case - moral, legal or national self-interest - for refusing his extradition.
> But Britain has always been prepared to work with undemocratic regimes in order to further the national interest, or stop a greater foe. Always, probably with zero break since the 18th century or earlier, we are working with someone unsavoury in the world. If you stop doing that, great. If you want to continue doing it, it's impolitic to chuck these people under a bus when you've finished with them.
>
> Britain did not chuck Chile under a bus by allowing the rule of law to operate in Britain.
>
> No it didn't, but it did chuck Pinochet under a bus. There's no doubt he had it coming, but those are the facts. If I were a third world dictator being courted by the UK, that would give me pause for thought.
And that’s a bad thing ?
There was no case - moral, legal or national self-interest - for refusing his extradition.
Of course? If we don't need something vital from said dictator, we wouldn't be courting him.
> @HYUFD said: > > @brendan16 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > > Indeed and the Brexit Party will win huge victories in almost all those local authority areas on Thursday > > > > > > > > Define ‘huge victory’? > > > > > > The Brexit Party will win every single northern and midlands local council area that voted Leave and when those Labour MPs come back from those counts in their areas on Thursday having seen Labour trounced by Farage's Party many will start to panic, indeed YouGov today has the Brexit Party just 2% behind Labour in a Welsh WESTMINSTER poll and Wales is Labour's historic heartland, home of Keir Hardie > > > > Based on those poll projections assuming uniform swing the Brexit party would get no seats in Wales despite polling second. Labour despite winning only 2% more than the BP would win 24 seats and the Tories with 6 percent less would win 9. Plaid and the LDs would win 5 and 2 seats each on barely half the BP's vote share. > > > > Not sure if our politics are broken but perhaps our electoral system is! > > Depends which polls you look at, some polls already have the Brexit Party on over 90 seats and once the BP overtake Labour as they already have done for the European elections Labour Leave seats will fall like skittles to Farage. > > Indeed the first Westminster poll to have the Brexit Party leading both the Tories and Labour may appear within a fortnight after the Brexit Party win the European elections
> @Morris_Dancer said: > Mr. Punter, that's an interesting observation on London remembering Boris was a Remainer when he was mayor. > > A related problem he'll face from people who aren't Conservative members (ie almost everyone) is that elsewhere, he might well be looked on as very much a London politician. Given there's already some tension over various things (transport funding being high on the list) that might hamper him in other parts of the UK, depending how things go.
Yes, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson would not appear a natural fit in your neck of the woods, Morris. I can see that.
Not entirely sure he easily holds his London seat either. His 5,000 majority is not that secure.
Boris has a few advantages. He's highest profile and the bookie's favourite, which may lend the air of inevitability (or, at least, probability), swaying those who just want a ministerial gig and are untroubled by other considerations.
Against that, he's shown himself to be seriously incompetent and unworthy to hold high office. Conservative MPs might also have had enough of a leader they don't feel they can trust.
Boris has a few advantages. He's highest profile and the bookie's favourite, which may lend the air of inevitability (or, at least, probability), swaying those who just want a ministerial gig and are untroubled by other considerations.
Against that, he's shown himself to be seriously incompetent and unworthy to hold high office. Conservative MPs might also have had enough of a leader they don't feel they can trust.
His biggest may be that there’s no one obviously better who has profile and traction with the public.
> @logical_song said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @brendan16 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > > > Indeed and the Brexit Party will win huge victories in almost all those local authority areas on Thursday > > > > > > > > > > Define ‘huge victory’? > > > > > > > > The Brexit Party will win every single northern and midlands local council area that voted Leave and when those Labour MPs come back from those counts in their areas on Thursday having seen Labour trounced by Farage's Party many will start to panic, indeed YouGov today has the Brexit Party just 2% behind Labour in a Welsh WESTMINSTER poll and Wales is Labour's historic heartland, home of Keir Hardie > > > > > > Based on those poll projections assuming uniform swing the Brexit party would get no seats in Wales despite polling second. Labour despite winning only 2% more than the BP would win 24 seats and the Tories with 6 percent less would win 9. Plaid and the LDs would win 5 and 2 seats each on barely half the BP's vote share. > > > > > > Not sure if our politics are broken but perhaps our electoral system is! > > > > Depends which polls you look at, some polls already have the Brexit Party on over 90 seats and once the BP overtake Labour as they already have done for the European elections Labour Leave seats will fall like skittles to Farage. > > > > Indeed the first Westminster poll to have the Brexit Party leading both the Tories and Labour may appear within a fortnight after the Brexit Party win the European elections > > A bit like this? > " In December 1981, nine months after the SDP's launch, a Gallup poll showed the party, in alliance with the Liberals, well ahead of Labour and the Tories." > https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/the-end-of-the-mad-hatters-1582122.html
Indeed, I think at one time the Alliance had an opinion poll rating of more than 50%.
> @Nigelb said: > > @JosiasJessop said: > > RIP Niki Lauda. > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48345660 > > > > A legend, and someone who got 43 years more of life than could have reasonably been expected. His recovery from the Nurburgring crash was amazing, and to be back racing a few months later was incredible. > > Didn’t know he’d also had two kidney transplants. > > In a safer era, he’d quite possibly have challenged Schumacher’s number of titles. The remarkable recovery tends to obscure just how good a driver he was. > >
If you have not seen it, I strongly recommend the film Rush which was about the clash between Hunt and Lauda for the world championship, and of course Lauda's near fatal crash.
One of the many outstanding aspects of the film was a brilliant performance by Daniel Bruhl as Lauda. The film won widespread acclaim, not least from Lauda himself who was not known for handing out praise lightly.
Philip Hammond will launch a pre-emptive strike on Boris Johnson today, warning that the next Tory prime minister will not have a mandate to take Britain out of the European Union with no deal.
The chancellor is to make his most outspoken attack so far on those from the “populist right” whom he accuses of hijacking the referendum result “knowingly to inflict damage on our economy and living standards”.
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > > @Luckyguy1983 said: > > > > @Luckyguy1983 said: > > > > > > > The justification is, Britain's foreign policy through the centuries, with some justification, has had a reputation of selling its friends to buy its enemies. Thatcher's continued loyalty to Pinochet seen in this light was the right thing to do - a signal that Britain sticks by those who help. > > > > > > > > > > > > I'm pretty sure that's the same moral code under which the mafia operate. The question under scrutiny here was whether Thatcher was evil; I'm not sure which side of that debate you're helping more. > > > > > > Thatcher always operated from a firm belief in doing what she considered to be in Britain's national interest. Which I think is what we (I'm assuming you are) as British citizens would want. > > > > It wasn't really in Britain's interests for its former PM to attack the rule of law and its application to her illustrious friend. But even if I were to believe that it was, doing something in the interests of ones own group — a country in this case, the mob in the case of the mafia — which goes against the rule of law is hardly a yardstick for goodness. In fact, I'd suggest that law breaking is strongly correlated with evil. > > > > Not that I'd like to be absolutist about that: there are noble reasons for breaking the law, and sometimes it's imperative to do so. But when it comes to trying to get a fascist off the hook because they helped you in a war, it doesn't feel quite as noble as breaking the speed limit to get an injured person to hospital. > > Well I applaud your moral certainty.
Thanks. Maybe I'm making it look easier than it really is. Or maybe it really is as easy as this: if you're defending the fascist, something's wrong. Take that lesson with you. It's surprisingly relevant, even today.
Mr. P, that's not just a strike against Boris, though, it's against a range of candidates.
There's also a logical conclusion from that, which is that those who agree with Hammond have to choose between a deal that, seemingly, cannot pass, and revoking (possibly via referendum) the electorate's decision.
Hammond should be pressed on this. It's legitimate, of course, to oppose no deal, but to govern is to choose, and if no deal is ruled out, and a deal cannot pass, the only logical conclusion is to endorse (in a referendum or not) revocation, and remaining.
Philip Hammond will launch a pre-emptive strike on Boris Johnson today, warning that the next Tory prime minister will not have a mandate to take Britain out of the European Union with no deal.
The chancellor is to make his most outspoken attack so far on those from the “populist right” whom he accuses of hijacking the referendum result “knowingly to inflict damage on our economy and living standards”.
> @Morris_Dancer said: > Mr. P, that's not just a strike against Boris, though, it's against a range of candidates. > > There's also a logical conclusion from that, which is that those who agree with Hammond have to choose between a deal that, seemingly, cannot pass, and revoking (possibly via referendum) the electorate's decision. > > Hammond should be pressed on this. It's legitimate, of course, to oppose no deal, but to govern is to choose, and if no deal is ruled out, and a deal cannot pass, the only logical conclusion is to endorse (in a referendum or not) revocation, and remaining.
Yes and there is no way any Tory leader would survive revoking Article 50
> @Peter_the_Punter said: > > @Nigelb said: > > > @JosiasJessop said: > > > RIP Niki Lauda. > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48345660 > > > > > > A legend, and someone who got 43 years more of life than could have reasonably been expected. His recovery from the Nurburgring crash was amazing, and to be back racing a few months later was incredible. > > > > Didn’t know he’d also had two kidney transplants. > > > > In a safer era, he’d quite possibly have challenged Schumacher’s number of titles. The remarkable recovery tends to obscure just how good a driver he was. > > > > > > If you have not seen it, I strongly recommend the film Rush which was about the clash between Hunt and Lauda for the world championship, and of course Lauda's near fatal crash. > > One of the many outstanding aspects of the film was a brilliant performance by Daniel Bruhl as Lauda. The film won widespread acclaim, not least from Lauda himself who was not known for handing out praise lightly. > > RIP Nicki - great man, great life.
Yes Rush is a great film with Bruhl playing Laura and Hemsworth Hunt.
Mr. P, fiddling with rules right before a contest would certainly help to establish the legitimacy and authority of a newly installed leader taking the helm of a deeply divided party.
Boris Johnson’s challenge is less in the late stages, though that’s not a cakewalk, but in the early stages. If five true believers stand, it’s not at all clear that he will be the last one of them standing. All the signs are that he is few people’s first choice.
Boris has thought of that:
BORIS Johnson is ready for a courtroom battle against Tory MPs trying to block him from getting elected as the new party leader.
An ‘Anyone But Boris’ group of largely Remianer Conservative MPs have vowed to stop him from seizing the keys to No10 by voting tactically for rival candidates.
During the imminent leadership contest’s first stage, the 313 Tory MPs narrow down the field contest for the party’s 150,000-strong membership to pick between.
But allies say secret legal advice has been drawn up for the former Foreign Secretary that finds the action would be in breach of the Conservatives’ leadership contest rules
> @Peter_the_Punter said: > > @Morris_Dancer said: > > Mr. Punter, that's an interesting observation on London remembering Boris was a Remainer when he was mayor. > > > > A related problem he'll face from people who aren't Conservative members (ie almost everyone) is that elsewhere, he might well be looked on as very much a London politician. Given there's already some tension over various things (transport funding being high on the list) that might hamper him in other parts of the UK, depending how things go. > > Yes, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson would not appear a natural fit in your neck of the woods, Morris. I can see that. > > Not entirely sure he easily holds his London seat either. His 5,000 majority is not that secure.
Hillingdon voted Leave and stayed Tory in 2018, even if Corbyn wins a small majority Boris could still hold Uxbridge, IDS would be gone though in Chingford and Woodford Green
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > @Mango said: > > > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1130595759768920065 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Boris showing some leg to Remainer MPs to try and get on the ballot of the final two. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > And he is an inveterate liar. > > > > > > > > He was a Remain Mayor of London. Londoners are unlikely to forget that. > > > > Boris’s plays are pretty transparent. > > > > This tells you he’s genuinely worried about getting into the final two, and doesn’t believe he can rely upon the Brexiteer caucus. > > And this is where the hustings will be so important. Boris must realise he cannot achieve his goal by pandering to the 30 or so Spartans but must appeal to a wider audience. > > The idea the run off will be between Boris and Baker is for the birds. I expect Boris may be able to get himself into the last two but I would not be surprised to see one of the ladies as the other choice
If it succeeds, his authority is already undermined by the manner of his acquiring the mantle, emboldening those already inclined, in a fractured party, to ignore/disobey him. If he fails, he looks pathetic and petulant (again).
Boris: where dignity goes to die on the altar of ambition.
> @Gallowgate said: > @HYUFD you do realise there are plenty of people who aren't ‘working class’ in the North East? Even outside Newcastle? > > If Brexit Party win, but Remain parties get a higher share of the vote, is that still a ‘huge’ victory in your eyes?
Under FPTP it could be yes e.g. the SNP got only 38% in 2017 but still won a majority of Scottish seats as the Unionist vote was divided, that is what will worry Labour MPs from Leave seats about the next general election if they further extend or vote to revoke Article 50
> @Chris said: > > @logical_song said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @brendan16 said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > > > > Indeed and the Brexit Party will win huge victories in almost all those local authority areas on Thursday > > > > > > > > > > > > Define ‘huge victory’? > > > > > > > > > > The Brexit Party will win every single northern and midlands local council area that voted Leave and when those Labour MPs come back from those counts in their areas on Thursday having seen Labour trounced by Farage's Party many will start to panic, indeed YouGov today has the Brexit Party just 2% behind Labour in a Welsh WESTMINSTER poll and Wales is Labour's historic heartland, home of Keir Hardie > > > > > > > > Based on those poll projections assuming uniform swing the Brexit party would get no seats in Wales despite polling second. Labour despite winning only 2% more than the BP would win 24 seats and the Tories with 6 percent less would win 9. Plaid and the LDs would win 5 and 2 seats each on barely half the BP's vote share. > > > > > > > > Not sure if our politics are broken but perhaps our electoral system is! > > > > > > Depends which polls you look at, some polls already have the Brexit Party on over 90 seats and once the BP overtake Labour as they already have done for the European elections Labour Leave seats will fall like skittles to Farage. > > > > > > Indeed the first Westminster poll to have the Brexit Party leading both the Tories and Labour may appear within a fortnight after the Brexit Party win the European elections > > > > A bit like this? > > " In December 1981, nine months after the SDP's launch, a Gallup poll showed the party, in alliance with the Liberals, well ahead of Labour and the Tories." > > https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/the-end-of-the-mad-hatters-1582122.html > > Indeed, I think at one time the Alliance had an opinion poll rating of more than 50%.
True but the SDP never won a national election as the Brexit Party will do on Thursday
> > Hammonds remarks are a shot across the bows of the no dealers who think a no deal PM will be able to make it happen through the Commons .
> Not just the Tories, increasingly most voters, Opinium at the weekend had more voters preferring No Deal to EUref2 and more voters preferring No Deal to revoke or further extension combined
>
> Do you really think those voters understand what an exit from the EU with no transitional agreement and an overnight exit from 700 international agreements mean? You clearly didn’t when I asked you the other day.
-------------
The problem that you... no to be fair the problem that WE... have is that it is not a case of people not knowing. It is a case of them not caring.
They perceive that the pro-EU side has cried wolf over the claimed disasters around Brexit for so long that they no longer believe anything they say. Remain have massively overplayed their hand as far as these people are concerned and nothing they can claim as far as downsides are concerned will make any significant impact.
Now obviously you can say that they will quickly find out it was not exaggeration once we do have a No Deal but by then it will already have happened.
And do you think those voters keen now on No Deal will go “Oh that’s fine. I’m happy to lose my job / see the orders to my business decrease / whatever” or will they turn round and say: “This is not what you promised.”?
Because if it’s the latter all that the No Deal fanatics are doing is setting up a fresh betrayal narrative for the future. And how is that supposed to help?
What I would like to understand - and have asked repeatedly - from the No Dealers (not the Remainers) how exactly they think that trade and all the other things we are currently doing under the existing laws / agreements we will fall out of if there is No Deal will happen?
And answer comes there none. Is it too much to expect those wanting something to have a plan for how it is to come about?
Or is this just about belief and being grateful that it won’t be as bad as WW2 (copyright: Anne Widdecombe)?
> @justin124 said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > Voting Brexit Party increases the chance of No Deal happening. But it also increases the chance of the government falling altogether. > > > > > > > > Now, one could argue that the current government doesn't deserve to continue (and that's not an unreasonable argument), but in that event a General Election moves from a possibility to a probability, and that will end up being a proxy second referendum. > > > > > > > > Be careful, in other words, what you wish for. > > > > I think increasing the chances of No Deal increases the chances of MPs passing a deal > > > > Labour have mostly maintained their unity/discipline when voting thus far. I would expect that to go out of the window after Thursday as the regional results show wild variations in Leave/Remain in different Labour areas. The overall losses will undermine Corbyn to the extent that Labour will be back in pre-GE17 mode. > > Not if turnout is circa 35% in an election widely viewed in a frivolous light.
I am sure some will try to characterise it that way.
In 2014 UKIP achieved just over 4 million votes. The following year, they retained 90% of them at the election.
The referendum happened, the vote dropped to <600k in 2017.
Assuming turnout in the region of 35% again, Brexit/UKIP is likely to poll anywhere between 5.5m and 6.5m votes this time.
If they retain 90% of them, that's a lot of lost votes for both Labour and the Tories.
That again assumes 35% turnout. If turnout was closer to 50%. It could be around 8 million votes.
Once a general election becomes about the SNP holding the balance of power, then what? The last time that was the prospect, England swung right.
Anyone been knocking doors or street-campaigning in Wales? Is it really possible that the Labour Party could finish in 3rd place for the first time in 100 years in a Wales-wide election?
Steel workers? I thought what was hurting Scunthorpe was that we were still in the EU when they'd planned for us to be out and therefore not subject to the carbon tax.
Comments
> twitter.com/amirsariaslan/status/1129465490840137728
You can stick your tits and dragons where the sun doesn't shine...The Wire is still the best tv show ever. As for House of Cards, that last season is still too highly rated!!!!
> > @dixiedean said:
>
> > > @Stark_Dawning said:
>
> > > Questions reposted from previous thread. This week's euros are a disaster for the Conservatives. Brexit Party triumphant. May goes at last. New Tory leader elected to deliver Brexit and move on from the awful mess.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > Will they deliver Brexit? And how?
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > What difference will the rise of the Brexit Party make?
>
> > >
>
> > > Nigel's triumph will absolutely terrify the Tories into No Deal. They will see any further dalliance with the EU as being utterly toxic, and the leadership campaign will be a veritable Mr Universe parade for Hard Brexit. Of course, the economic fallout over No Deal will probably destroy them, and the Brexit Party will take their place, but the madness now seems unstoppable to me.
>
> >
>
> > But that doesn't explain how they will get it through HofC? Without a GE of course. Which they will need to win a majority in.
>
> > Oops. Ben made the very same point.
>
>
>
>
>
> They don't need to. It's the legal default. Unless we ask for and get an extension or we revoke or pass the WA by 31 October, on that day the Article 50 period comes to an end and we are out of the EU.
>
> This is the same argument many were making before March 29, and before April 12. It's no more likely to be allowed to happen by the HoC in October than it was then.
As with both those cases it depends entirely on the EU and what they decide. It is not in the hands of Parliament to change that unless they actually pass something that supersedes No Deal. Are you really feeling confident that the EU will continue to allow extensions without something fundamental changing?
> Indeed and the Brexit Party will win huge victories in almost all those local authority areas on Thursday
>
> Define ‘huge victory’?
The Brexit Party will win every single northern and midlands local council area that voted Leave and when those Labour MPs come back from those counts in their areas on Thursday having seen Labour trounced by Farage's Party many will start to panic, indeed YouGov today has the Brexit Party just 2% behind Labour in a Welsh WESTMINSTER poll and Wales is Labour's historic heartland, home of Keir Hardie
> Hammonds remarks are a shot across the bows of the no dealers who think a no deal PM will be able to make it happen through the Commons .
>
>
>
> The only way to no deal is through a referendum or general election .
>
>
>
> The only thing Labour re Brexit are united on is to stop a no deal . There are at max 5 MPs who would vote for no deal .
>
>
>
> Added together with ardent no dealers on the opposition and those in the Tory party and a way will be found to stop it .
>
> Unless a way is found to repeal the legislation which takes us out of the EU on 31 October automatically, No Deal will happen.
>
> How can backbenchers do this if the government is committed to No Deal?
>
> I really don’t want No Deal to happen but the Tories seem determined in their blind panic to impose this on us.
Not just the Tories, increasingly most voters, Opinium at the weekend had more voters preferring No Deal to EUref2 and more voters preferring No Deal to revoke or further extension combined
> Hammonds remarks are a shot across the bows of the no dealers who think a no deal PM will be able to make it happen through the Commons .
>
>
>
> The only way to no deal is through a referendum or general election .
>
>
>
> The only thing Labour re Brexit are united on is to stop a no deal . There are at max 5 MPs who would vote for no deal .
>
>
>
> Added together with ardent no dealers on the opposition and those in the Tory party and a way will be found to stop it .
>
> Hammond is supported by himself and his mum. And she might be wavering. Last squawk of a Norwegian blue parrot.
This isn’t about a Hammond leadership challenge , he has no chance . But do you seriously think Tories who refuse to accept no deal are going to just sit there and do nothing . The ERG had 80 odd causing probs but you only need 20 Tories to side with the opposition to cause any new PM a lot of trouble .
> Boris wont be too happy with his home base paper putting this out:
>
> https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1130578503546675200
'Oxford to let in disadvantaged students with lower grades' yes outrageous!
> > @Benpointer said:
>
> > > @OblitusSumMe said:
>
> >
>
> > > > @ah009 said:
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > I'm reminded of what Churchill said when asked about fighting on the same side as Stalin.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > I might disagree with Thatcher about whether Allende was a greater evil that required standing behind Pinochet, but I can see how that sort of argument might lead one to support an evil, to defeat a perceived greater evil, without one being evil themselves. It's probably to her credit that she stuck to that position and was loyal to Pinochet later, rather than turning against him once his use was past.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > It's the same sort of argument that many will use to justify their vote for Corbyn and his merry band of anti-semites. I wonder whether Labour Party members will continue to stand behind Corbyn when they no longer need him to fight the greater Tory evil?
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > There was no reason for Thatcher to say what she did. She could perfectly well have said that Chile had helped Britain during the Falklands War, that we were grateful for that help but that no one is above the law and that the legal process in Britain and Spain and Chile should be allowed to run its course without any interference from politicians.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > That is what a decent thoughtful politician would have said not rushed to embrace Pinochet as if he were her best friend.
>
> >
>
> > I am no supporter of Thatcher - far from it - but is it not probable that she was already suffering the early effects of dementia by the late 90s and that that affected her decision-making?
>
>
>
> That may be the case. In which those around her advising her did her no favours. Someone will have seen the speech she wrote. Why did they not stop her if they thought she was not of sound mind at the time?
>
> Now there is a question which could be asked of the advisors and supporters of many powerful people through history. The answer seems to be that the acolytes are in thrall to leader.
>
> Apologies for succumbing to Godwin's Law* but why didn't Hitler's advisers stop him invading Russia in 1941?
Because basically all of those in his inner circle who he would listen to shared his lunatic vision. The one big exception was Goring who thought it was a stupid thing to do but who went along with it for fear of being sidelined by Hitler and seeing others gain more power at his expense.
The people who really objected - the Generals - had no power what so ever to influence those major strategic decisions.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > Indeed and the Brexit Party will win huge victories in almost all those local authority areas on Thursday
> >
> > Define ‘huge victory’?
>
> The Brexit Party will win every single northern and midlands local council area that voted Leave and when those Labour MPs come back from those counts in their areas on Thursday having seen Labour trounced by Farage's Party many will start to panic, indeed YouGov today has the Brexit Party just 2% behind Labour in a Welsh WESTMINSTER poll and Wales is Labour's historic heartland, home of Keir Hardie
Labour are going to be trounced by second vote parties not the BP. They are losing double Remain votes to Leave votes .
If only..
Let them eat cake ?
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Boris wont be too happy with his home base paper putting this out:
> >
> > https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1130578503546675200
>
> 'Oxford to let in disadvantaged students with lower grades' yes outrageous!
It just doesn't work, most of them get thrown out after a year for failing mods/prelims. And the only solution to that that I can see is to accept lower grades for them at mods, and again at finals. I don't think that is going to happen.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > Hammonds remarks are a shot across the bows of the no dealers who think a no deal PM will be able to make it happen through the Commons .
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > The only way to no deal is through a referendum or general election .
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > The only thing Labour re Brexit are united on is to stop a no deal . There are at max 5 MPs who would vote for no deal .
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Added together with ardent no dealers on the opposition and those in the Tory party and a way will be found to stop it .
>
> >
>
> > Unless a way is found to repeal the legislation which takes us out of the EU on 31 October automatically, No Deal will happen.
>
> >
>
> > How can backbenchers do this if the government is committed to No Deal?
>
> >
>
> > I really don’t want No Deal to happen but the Tories seem determined in their blind panic to impose this on us.
>
>
>
> Not just the Tories, increasingly most voters, Opinium at the weekend had more voters preferring No Deal to EUref2 and more voters preferring No Deal to revoke or further extension combined
>
> Do you really think those voters understand what an exit from the EU with no transitional agreement and an overnight exit from 700 international agreements mean? You clearly didn’t when I asked you the other day.
-------------
The problem that you... no to be fair the problem that WE... have is that it is not a case of people not knowing. It is a case of them not caring.
They perceive that the pro-EU side has cried wolf over the claimed disasters around Brexit for so long that they no longer believe anything they say. Remain have massively overplayed their hand as far as these people are concerned and nothing they can claim as far as downsides are concerned will make any significant impact.
Now obviously you can say that they will quickly find out it was not exaggeration once we do have a No Deal but by then it will already have happened.
Brexit related issues , a slump in orders from Europe and concerns over a no deal have added to its problems .
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > Indeed and the Brexit Party will win huge victories in almost all those local authority areas on Thursday
> >
> > Define ‘huge victory’?
>
> The Brexit Party will win every single northern and midlands local council area that voted Leave and when those Labour MPs come back from those counts in their areas on Thursday having seen Labour trounced by Farage's Party many will start to panic, indeed YouGov today has the Brexit Party just 2% behind Labour in a Welsh WESTMINSTER poll and Wales is Labour's historic heartland, home of Keir Hardie
Based on those poll projections assuming uniform swing the Brexit party would get no seats in Wales despite polling second. Labour despite winning only 2% more than the BP would win 24 seats and the Tories with 6 percent less would win 9. Plaid and the LDs would win 5 and 2 seats each on barely half the BP's vote share.
Not sure if our politics are broken but perhaps our electoral system is!
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > Hammonds remarks are a shot across the bows of the no dealers who think a no deal PM will be able to make it happen through the Commons .
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > The only way to no deal is through a referendum or general election .
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > The only thing Labour re Brexit are united on is to stop a no deal . There are at max 5 MPs who would vote for no deal .
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Added together with ardent no dealers on the opposition and those in the Tory party and a way will be found to stop it .
>
> >
>
> > Unless a way is found to repeal the legislation which takes us out of the EU on 31 October automatically, No Deal will happen.
>
> >
>
> > How can backbenchers do this if the government is committed to No Deal?
>
> >
>
> > I really don’t want No Deal to happen but the Tories seem determined in their blind panic to impose this on us.
>
>
>
> Not just the Tories, increasingly most voters, Opinium at the weekend had more voters preferring No Deal to EUref2 and more voters preferring No Deal to revoke or further extension combined
>
> Do you really think those voters understand what an exit from the EU with no transitional agreement and an overnight exit from 700 international agreements mean? You clearly didn’t when I asked you the other day.
They do, they understand they voted to Leave and MPs have ignored them and are quite prepared to go to No Deal and WTO terms if necessary if they still refuse to implement Brexit until future agreements are arranged.
Patronising hectoring from the likes of you will just increase their resolve
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > Indeed and the Brexit Party will win huge victories in almost all those local authority areas on Thursday
> > >
> > > Define ‘huge victory’?
> >
> > The Brexit Party will win every single northern and midlands local council area that voted Leave and when those Labour MPs come back from those counts in their areas on Thursday having seen Labour trounced by Farage's Party many will start to panic, indeed YouGov today has the Brexit Party just 2% behind Labour in a Welsh WESTMINSTER poll and Wales is Labour's historic heartland, home of Keir Hardie
>
> Labour are going to be trounced by second vote parties not the BP. They are losing double Remain votes to Leave votes .
Nope, not in Labour Leave seats and not amongst the working class.
There it is the Brexit Party making all the headway
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1129400589920722945?s=20
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > Indeed and the Brexit Party will win huge victories in almost all those local authority areas on Thursday
> > >
> > > Define ‘huge victory’?
> >
> > The Brexit Party will win every single northern and midlands local council area that voted Leave and when those Labour MPs come back from those counts in their areas on Thursday having seen Labour trounced by Farage's Party many will start to panic, indeed YouGov today has the Brexit Party just 2% behind Labour in a Welsh WESTMINSTER poll and Wales is Labour's historic heartland, home of Keir Hardie
>
> Based on those poll projections assuming uniform swing the Brexit party would get no seats in Wales despite polling second. Labour despite winning only 2% more than the BP would win 24 seats and the Tories with 6 percent less would win 9. Plaid and the LDs would win 5 and 2 seats each on barely half the BP's vote share.
>
> Not sure if our politics are broken but perhaps our electoral system is!
Depends which polls you look at, some polls already have the Brexit Party on over 90 seats and once the BP overtake Labour as they already have done for the European elections Labour Leave seats will fall like skittles to Farage.
Indeed the first Westminster poll to have the Brexit Party leading both the Tories and Labour may appear within a fortnight after the Brexit Party win the European elections
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > Here’s a question: which regions will the Conservatives hold up best in, proportionately? If their remaining voters are Remaining voters, does that imply the south east, the south west and the north west?
>
> Scotland. Beyond any doubt. Because of Ruth and the bigger picture against the SNP.
That’s a keeper.
> https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1130595759768920065?s=20
Boris showing some leg to Remainer MPs to try and get on the ballot of the final two.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1130595759768920065?s=20
>
> Boris showing some leg to Remainer MPs to try and get on the ballot of the final two.
>
>
The values colour scheme looks very Brexit Party-ish
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1130595759768920065?s=20
>
> Boris showing some leg to Remainer MPs to try and get on the ballot of the final two.
>
>
He can afford to given Baker now seems to be the candidate for the No Deal ultra hard Brexiteers within the ERG.
If Boris builds up a big enough lead amongst MPs could even end up a Boris v Baker final two sent to the membership, a bit like the GOP primary ended up Trump v Cruz in 2016 with Hunt and Javid facing Jeb Bush and Rubio's fate
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1130595759768920065?s=20
>
> Boris showing some leg to Remainer MPs to try and get on the ballot of the final two.
>
>
And he is an inveterate liar.
> Voting Brexit Party increases the chance of No Deal happening. But it also increases the chance of the government falling altogether.
>
>
>
> Now, one could argue that the current government doesn't deserve to continue (and that's not an unreasonable argument), but in that event a General Election moves from a possibility to a probability, and that will end up being a proxy second referendum.
>
>
>
> Be careful, in other words, what you wish for.
>
> I think increasing the chances of No Deal increases the chances of MPs passing a deal
>
> Labour have mostly maintained their unity/discipline when voting thus far. I would expect that to go out of the window after Thursday as the regional results show wild variations in Leave/Remain in different Labour areas. The overall losses will undermine Corbyn to the extent that Labour will be back in pre-GE17 mode.
Not if turnout is circa 35% in an election widely viewed in a frivolous light.
"Thousands of jobs at risk with British Steel on brink of collapse
The UK’s second-biggest steel producer will call in administrators on Wednesday without a £30m government loan, Sky News learns."
https://news.sky.com/story/thousands-of-jobs-at-risk-with-british-steel-on-brink-of-collapse-11725090
> The LDs carried 4 areas in 2014: Orkney, Shetland, South Lakeland and Gibraltar.
>
> I must visit south Lakeland one day, to discover why it seems to be the most lib dem place in the country, certainly in England.
Because former leader Tim Farron is the MP. Before that it was safely Conservative; without Farron it could well return to being so. I think the Tories were very complacent there for many years, not bothering to campaign and keep canvassing records, etc.
Parliamentary remainers all along have been perfectly happy to risk no deal to get what they want, which shows they dont understand or dont care about the challenges of no deal either.
Which is fair enough, remain is a reasonable goal, if only they were honest that they are happy to risk no deal, given most still wont admit they want to revoke and therefore it is not purely in our gift to avoid no deal without signing the deal.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48345660
A legend, and someone who got 43 years more of life than could have reasonably been expected. His recovery from the Nurburgring crash was amazing, and to be back racing a few months later was incredible.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > Hammonds remarks are a shot across the bows of the no dealers who think a no deal PM will be able to make it happen through the Commons .
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > The only way to no deal is through a referendum or general election .
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > The only thing Labour re Brexit are united on is to stop a no deal . There are at max 5 MPs who would vote for no deal .
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Added together with ardent no dealers on the opposition and those in the Tory party and a way will be found to stop it .
>
> >
>
> > Unless a way is found to repeal the legislation which takes us out of the EU on 31 October automatically, No Deal will happen.
>
> >
>
> > How can backbenchers do this if the government is committed to No Deal?
>
> >
>
> > I really don’t want No Deal to happen but the Tories seem determined in their blind panic to impose this on us.
>
>
>
> Not just the Tories, increasingly most voters, Opinium at the weekend had more voters preferring No Deal to EUref2 and more voters preferring No Deal to revoke or further extension combined
>
> Do you really think those voters understand what an exit from the EU with no transitional agreement and an overnight exit from 700 international agreements mean? You clearly didn’t when I asked you the other day.
>
> They might not but parliament does not care about what they think anyway or they'd cut a deal already, the easiest way to immediately see how many truly want no deal.
>
> Parliamentary remainers all along have been perfectly happy to risk no deal to get what they want, which shows they dont understand or dont care about the challenges of no deal either.
>
> Which is fair enough, remain is a reasonable goal, if only they were honest that they are happy to risk no deal, given most still wont admit they want to revoke and therefore it is not purely in our gift to avoid no deal without signing the deal.
Of course it is, if you know deep down that a majority would go for revoke if the only alternative were to become a no deal exit. Until then there is always the alternative of more time, as the EU also understands.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1130595759768920065?s=20
> >
> > Boris showing some leg to Remainer MPs to try and get on the ballot of the final two.
> >
> >
>
> He can afford to given Baker now seems to be the candidate for the No Deal ultra hard Brexiteers within the ERG.
>
> If Boris builds up a big enough lead amongst MPs could even end up a Boris v Baker final two sent to the membership, a bit like the GOP primary ended up Trump v Cruz in 2016 with Hunt and Javid facing Jeb Bush and Rubio's fate
Another absurd HY prediction.
For those who like their politicians hitting things with sticks...
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > > @Cyclefree said:
>
> >
>
> > > Hammonds remarks are a shot across the bows of the no dealers who think a no deal PM will be able to make it happen through the Commons .
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > The only way to no deal is through a referendum or general election .
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > The only thing Labour re Brexit are united on is to stop a no deal . There are at max 5 MPs who would vote for no deal .
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Added together with ardent no dealers on the opposition and those in the Tory party and a way will be found to stop it .
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Unless a way is found to repeal the legislation which takes us out of the EU on 31 October automatically, No Deal will happen.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > How can backbenchers do this if the government is committed to No Deal?
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > I really don’t want No Deal to happen but the Tories seem determined in their blind panic to impose this on us.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Not just the Tories, increasingly most voters, Opinium at the weekend had more voters preferring No Deal to EUref2 and more voters preferring No Deal to sked you the other day.
>
> >
>
> > They might not but parliament does not care about what they think anyway or they'd cut a deal already, the easiest way to immediately see how many truly want no deal.
>
> >
>
> > Parliamentary remainers all along have been perfectly happy to risk no deal to get what they want, which shows they dont understand or dont care about the challenges of no deal either.
>
> >
>
> > Which is fair enough, remain is a reasonable e deal.
>
>
>
> Of course it is, if you know deep down that a majority would go for revoke if the only alternative were to become a no deal exit. Until then there is always the alternative of more time, as the EU also understands.
>
> I know they would that was my point. They are either dishonest about their opposition risking no deal or they are dishonest about that the plan is to revoke if needs be. They're getting there, but at present most still pretend their arguments support a stance of referendum when in fact it supports revoke.
One could turn your original argument around, then, and wonder why parliamentary leavers are willing to risk revoke by resisting proposals for a people’s vote on any deal?
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1130595759768920065?s=20
> > >
> > > Boris showing some leg to Remainer MPs to try and get on the ballot of the final two.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > He can afford to given Baker now seems to be the candidate for the No Deal ultra hard Brexiteers within the ERG.
> >
> > If Boris builds up a big enough lead amongst MPs could even end up a Boris v Baker final two sent to the membership, a bit like the GOP primary ended up Trump v Cruz in 2016 with Hunt and Javid facing Jeb Bush and Rubio's fate
>
> Another absurd HY prediction.
Boris always brings to my mind a Kirsty MacColl song, the relevant verse of which is
'There's a guy works down the chip shop swears he's Elvis
Just like you swore to me that you'd be true
There's a guy works down the chip shop swears he's Elvis
But he's a liar and I'm not sure about you'
RIP.
'Change UK can help defeat hard Brexit – but not how you’d expect
By re-distributing just 2 per cent of voters from the weakest to the strongest Remain party in each region, the pro-European side could snatch victory from the jaws of supposedly inevitable ‘defeat’'
See the 'Voices' pages on the web.
I've tended to agree with those who thought that Change's MP's didn't learn the lesson of the 80's. I just hope they find it easy to get gainful employment after the next election. Sarah Wollaston will be OK, of course!
Sad to hear of Niki Lauda's death.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1130595759768920065?s=20
> > > >
> > > > Boris showing some leg to Remainer MPs to try and get on the ballot of the final two.
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > He can afford to given Baker now seems to be the candidate for the No Deal ultra hard Brexiteers within the ERG.
> > >
> > > If Boris builds up a big enough lead amongst MPs could even end up a Boris v Baker final two sent to the membership, a bit like the GOP primary ended up Trump v Cruz in 2016 with Hunt and Javid facing Jeb Bush and Rubio's fate
> >
> > Another absurd HY prediction.
>
> Boris always brings to my mind a Kirsty MacColl song, the relevant verse of which is
> 'There's a guy works down the chip shop swears he's Elvis
> Just like you swore to me that you'd be true
> There's a guy works down the chip shop swears he's Elvis
> But he's a liar and I'm not sure about you'
I didn't see, make everyday the first day of spring. Worthless platitudes. Almost everyone could say they stand for these values. It how you try to achieve these aims that matter.
If Brexit Party win, but Remain parties get a higher share of the vote, is that still a ‘huge’ victory in your eyes?
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1130595759768920065?s=20
> >
> > Boris showing some leg to Remainer MPs to try and get on the ballot of the final two.
> >
> >
>
> And he is an inveterate liar.
He was a Remain Mayor of London. Londoners are unlikely to forget that.
> Does Gordon Brown believe UKIP are the only party that uses PayPal for donations?
The Leave campaign is under investigation for impermissible donations.
Aroun Banks, major funder of Leave, and apparently the Brexit Party, is under investigation for impermissible donations, possibly linked to his close relationship to Russian government officials.
One of the major fund raisers for the Brexit Party was convicted in the US for money laundering.
As I understand it, TBP received clear warnings from the Electoral Commission. If those warnings were ignored, then Farage is in very hot water, not cold milk shake.
This tells you he’s genuinely worried about getting into the final two, and doesn’t believe he can rely upon the Brexiteer caucus.
I don’t know how much Banks and Tice have given (probably a fair bit) but that isn’t really news, and they’ve been doing so for years.
> > @Mango said:
>
> > > @GIN1138 said:
>
> > > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > > https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1130595759768920065
>
>
>
> > >
>
> > > Boris showing some leg to Remainer MPs to try and get on the ballot of the final two.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > And he is an inveterate liar.
>
>
>
> He was a Remain Mayor of London. Londoners are unlikely to forget that.
>
> Boris’s plays are pretty transparent.
>
> This tells you he’s genuinely worried about getting into the final two, and doesn’t believe he can rely upon the Brexiteer caucus.
And this is where the hustings will be so important. Boris must realise he cannot achieve his goal by pandering to the 30 or so Spartans but must appeal to a wider audience.
The idea the run off will be between Boris and Baker is for the birds. I expect Boris may be able to get himself into the last two but I would not be surprised to see one of the ladies as the other choice
A related problem he'll face from people who aren't Conservative members (ie almost everyone) is that elsewhere, he might well be looked on as very much a London politician. Given there's already some tension over various things (transport funding being high on the list) that might hamper him in other parts of the UK, depending how things go.
You people never learn.
> RIP Niki Lauda.
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48345660
>
> A legend, and someone who got 43 years more of life than could have reasonably been expected. His recovery from the Nurburgring crash was amazing, and to be back racing a few months later was incredible.
Didn’t know he’d also had two kidney transplants.
In a safer era, he’d quite possibly have challenged Schumacher’s number of titles. The remarkable recovery tends to obscure just how good a driver he was.
> >
>
> But Britain has always been prepared to work with undemocratic regimes in order to further the national interest, or stop a greater foe. Always, probably with zero break since the 18th century or earlier, we are working with someone unsavoury in the world. If you stop doing that, great. If you want to continue doing it, it's impolitic to chuck these people under a bus when you've finished with them.
>
> Britain did not chuck Chile under a bus by allowing the rule of law to operate in Britain.
>
> No it didn't, but it did chuck Pinochet under a bus. There's no doubt he had it coming, but those are the facts. If I were a third world dictator being courted by the UK, that would give me pause for thought.
And that’s a bad thing ?
There was no case - moral, legal or national self-interest - for refusing his extradition.
> > @brendan16 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > > Indeed and the Brexit Party will win huge victories in almost all those local authority areas on Thursday
> > > >
> > > > Define ‘huge victory’?
> > >
> > > The Brexit Party will win every single northern and midlands local council area that voted Leave and when those Labour MPs come back from those counts in their areas on Thursday having seen Labour trounced by Farage's Party many will start to panic, indeed YouGov today has the Brexit Party just 2% behind Labour in a Welsh WESTMINSTER poll and Wales is Labour's historic heartland, home of Keir Hardie
> >
> > Based on those poll projections assuming uniform swing the Brexit party would get no seats in Wales despite polling second. Labour despite winning only 2% more than the BP would win 24 seats and the Tories with 6 percent less would win 9. Plaid and the LDs would win 5 and 2 seats each on barely half the BP's vote share.
> >
> > Not sure if our politics are broken but perhaps our electoral system is!
>
> Depends which polls you look at, some polls already have the Brexit Party on over 90 seats and once the BP overtake Labour as they already have done for the European elections Labour Leave seats will fall like skittles to Farage.
>
> Indeed the first Westminster poll to have the Brexit Party leading both the Tories and Labour may appear within a fortnight after the Brexit Party win the European elections
A bit like this?
" In December 1981, nine months after the SDP's launch, a Gallup poll showed the party, in alliance with the Liberals, well ahead of Labour and the Tories."
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/the-end-of-the-mad-hatters-1582122.html
> Mr. Punter, that's an interesting observation on London remembering Boris was a Remainer when he was mayor.
>
> A related problem he'll face from people who aren't Conservative members (ie almost everyone) is that elsewhere, he might well be looked on as very much a London politician. Given there's already some tension over various things (transport funding being high on the list) that might hamper him in other parts of the UK, depending how things go.
Yes, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson would not appear a natural fit in your neck of the woods, Morris. I can see that.
Not entirely sure he easily holds his London seat either. His 5,000 majority is not that secure.
Boris has a few advantages. He's highest profile and the bookie's favourite, which may lend the air of inevitability (or, at least, probability), swaying those who just want a ministerial gig and are untroubled by other considerations.
Against that, he's shown himself to be seriously incompetent and unworthy to hold high office. Conservative MPs might also have had enough of a leader they don't feel they can trust.
But, that may change.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @brendan16 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > > > Indeed and the Brexit Party will win huge victories in almost all those local authority areas on Thursday
> > > > >
> > > > > Define ‘huge victory’?
> > > >
> > > > The Brexit Party will win every single northern and midlands local council area that voted Leave and when those Labour MPs come back from those counts in their areas on Thursday having seen Labour trounced by Farage's Party many will start to panic, indeed YouGov today has the Brexit Party just 2% behind Labour in a Welsh WESTMINSTER poll and Wales is Labour's historic heartland, home of Keir Hardie
> > >
> > > Based on those poll projections assuming uniform swing the Brexit party would get no seats in Wales despite polling second. Labour despite winning only 2% more than the BP would win 24 seats and the Tories with 6 percent less would win 9. Plaid and the LDs would win 5 and 2 seats each on barely half the BP's vote share.
> > >
> > > Not sure if our politics are broken but perhaps our electoral system is!
> >
> > Depends which polls you look at, some polls already have the Brexit Party on over 90 seats and once the BP overtake Labour as they already have done for the European elections Labour Leave seats will fall like skittles to Farage.
> >
> > Indeed the first Westminster poll to have the Brexit Party leading both the Tories and Labour may appear within a fortnight after the Brexit Party win the European elections
>
> A bit like this?
> " In December 1981, nine months after the SDP's launch, a Gallup poll showed the party, in alliance with the Liberals, well ahead of Labour and the Tories."
> https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/the-end-of-the-mad-hatters-1582122.html
Indeed, I think at one time the Alliance had an opinion poll rating of more than 50%.
> > @JosiasJessop said:
> > RIP Niki Lauda.
> >
> > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48345660
> >
> > A legend, and someone who got 43 years more of life than could have reasonably been expected. His recovery from the Nurburgring crash was amazing, and to be back racing a few months later was incredible.
>
> Didn’t know he’d also had two kidney transplants.
>
> In a safer era, he’d quite possibly have challenged Schumacher’s number of titles. The remarkable recovery tends to obscure just how good a driver he was.
>
>
If you have not seen it, I strongly recommend the film Rush which was about the clash between Hunt and Lauda for the world championship, and of course Lauda's near fatal crash.
One of the many outstanding aspects of the film was a brilliant performance by Daniel Bruhl as Lauda. The film won widespread acclaim, not least from Lauda himself who was not known for handing out praise lightly.
RIP Nicki - great man, great life.
The chancellor is to make his most outspoken attack so far on those from the “populist right” whom he accuses of hijacking the referendum result “knowingly to inflict damage on our economy and living standards”.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/philip-hammond-leads-attack-on-boris-johnson-over-brexit-lj28ns55c
> > @Luckyguy1983 said:
>
> > > @Luckyguy1983 said:
>
> >
>
> > > The justification is, Britain's foreign policy through the centuries, with some justification, has had a reputation of selling its friends to buy its enemies. Thatcher's continued loyalty to Pinochet seen in this light was the right thing to do - a signal that Britain sticks by those who help.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > I'm pretty sure that's the same moral code under which the mafia operate. The question under scrutiny here was whether Thatcher was evil; I'm not sure which side of that debate you're helping more.
>
> >
>
> > Thatcher always operated from a firm belief in doing what she considered to be in Britain's national interest. Which I think is what we (I'm assuming you are) as British citizens would want.
>
>
>
> It wasn't really in Britain's interests for its former PM to attack the rule of law and its application to her illustrious friend. But even if I were to believe that it was, doing something in the interests of ones own group — a country in this case, the mob in the case of the mafia — which goes against the rule of law is hardly a yardstick for goodness. In fact, I'd suggest that law breaking is strongly correlated with evil.
>
>
>
> Not that I'd like to be absolutist about that: there are noble reasons for breaking the law, and sometimes it's imperative to do so. But when it comes to trying to get a fascist off the hook because they helped you in a war, it doesn't feel quite as noble as breaking the speed limit to get an injured person to hospital.
>
> Well I applaud your moral certainty.
Thanks. Maybe I'm making it look easier than it really is. Or maybe it really is as easy as this: if you're defending the fascist, something's wrong.
Take that lesson with you. It's surprisingly relevant, even today.
There's also a logical conclusion from that, which is that those who agree with Hammond have to choose between a deal that, seemingly, cannot pass, and revoking (possibly via referendum) the electorate's decision.
Hammond should be pressed on this. It's legitimate, of course, to oppose no deal, but to govern is to choose, and if no deal is ruled out, and a deal cannot pass, the only logical conclusion is to endorse (in a referendum or not) revocation, and remaining.
> Mr. P, that's not just a strike against Boris, though, it's against a range of candidates.
>
> There's also a logical conclusion from that, which is that those who agree with Hammond have to choose between a deal that, seemingly, cannot pass, and revoking (possibly via referendum) the electorate's decision.
>
> Hammond should be pressed on this. It's legitimate, of course, to oppose no deal, but to govern is to choose, and if no deal is ruled out, and a deal cannot pass, the only logical conclusion is to endorse (in a referendum or not) revocation, and remaining.
Yes and there is no way any Tory leader would survive revoking Article 50
> > @Nigelb said:
> > > @JosiasJessop said:
> > > RIP Niki Lauda.
> > >
> > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48345660
> > >
> > > A legend, and someone who got 43 years more of life than could have reasonably been expected. His recovery from the Nurburgring crash was amazing, and to be back racing a few months later was incredible.
> >
> > Didn’t know he’d also had two kidney transplants.
> >
> > In a safer era, he’d quite possibly have challenged Schumacher’s number of titles. The remarkable recovery tends to obscure just how good a driver he was.
> >
> >
>
> If you have not seen it, I strongly recommend the film Rush which was about the clash between Hunt and Lauda for the world championship, and of course Lauda's near fatal crash.
>
> One of the many outstanding aspects of the film was a brilliant performance by Daniel Bruhl as Lauda. The film won widespread acclaim, not least from Lauda himself who was not known for handing out praise lightly.
>
> RIP Nicki - great man, great life.
Yes Rush is a great film with Bruhl playing Laura and Hemsworth Hunt.
RIP Nicki Lauda a man of great resilience
Ahem.
BORIS Johnson is ready for a courtroom battle against Tory MPs trying to block him from getting elected as the new party leader.
An ‘Anyone But Boris’ group of largely Remianer Conservative MPs have vowed to stop him from seizing the keys to No10 by voting tactically for rival candidates.
During the imminent leadership contest’s first stage, the 313 Tory MPs narrow down the field contest for the party’s 150,000-strong membership to pick between.
But allies say secret legal advice has been drawn up for the former Foreign Secretary that finds the action would be in breach of the Conservatives’ leadership contest rules
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9117741/legal-battle-anyone-but-boris-johnson/
The issue being the Party Constitution - which is vague - and the 1922 Ctte rules which specify the 'Final list of 2 MPs MPs select'.
> > @Morris_Dancer said:
> > Mr. Punter, that's an interesting observation on London remembering Boris was a Remainer when he was mayor.
> >
> > A related problem he'll face from people who aren't Conservative members (ie almost everyone) is that elsewhere, he might well be looked on as very much a London politician. Given there's already some tension over various things (transport funding being high on the list) that might hamper him in other parts of the UK, depending how things go.
>
> Yes, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson would not appear a natural fit in your neck of the woods, Morris. I can see that.
>
> Not entirely sure he easily holds his London seat either. His 5,000 majority is not that secure.
Hillingdon voted Leave and stayed Tory in 2018, even if Corbyn wins a small majority Boris could still hold Uxbridge, IDS would be gone though in Chingford and Woodford Green
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > @Mango said:
> >
> > > > @GIN1138 said:
> >
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > > > > https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1130595759768920065
> >
> >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > Boris showing some leg to Remainer MPs to try and get on the ballot of the final two.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > And he is an inveterate liar.
> >
> >
> >
> > He was a Remain Mayor of London. Londoners are unlikely to forget that.
> >
> > Boris’s plays are pretty transparent.
> >
> > This tells you he’s genuinely worried about getting into the final two, and doesn’t believe he can rely upon the Brexiteer caucus.
>
> And this is where the hustings will be so important. Boris must realise he cannot achieve his goal by pandering to the 30 or so Spartans but must appeal to a wider audience.
>
> The idea the run off will be between Boris and Baker is for the birds. I expect Boris may be able to get himself into the last two but I would not be surprised to see one of the ladies as the other choice
Boris v Leadsom or Mourdaunt?
If it succeeds, his authority is already undermined by the manner of his acquiring the mantle, emboldening those already inclined, in a fractured party, to ignore/disobey him. If he fails, he looks pathetic and petulant (again).
Boris: where dignity goes to die on the altar of ambition.
> @HYUFD you do realise there are plenty of people who aren't ‘working class’ in the North East? Even outside Newcastle?
>
> If Brexit Party win, but Remain parties get a higher share of the vote, is that still a ‘huge’ victory in your eyes?
Under FPTP it could be yes e.g. the SNP got only 38% in 2017 but still won a majority of Scottish seats as the Unionist vote was divided, that is what will worry Labour MPs from Leave seats about the next general election if they further extend or vote to revoke Article 50
> > @logical_song said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @brendan16 said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > > > > Indeed and the Brexit Party will win huge victories in almost all those local authority areas on Thursday
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Define ‘huge victory’?
> > > > >
> > > > > The Brexit Party will win every single northern and midlands local council area that voted Leave and when those Labour MPs come back from those counts in their areas on Thursday having seen Labour trounced by Farage's Party many will start to panic, indeed YouGov today has the Brexit Party just 2% behind Labour in a Welsh WESTMINSTER poll and Wales is Labour's historic heartland, home of Keir Hardie
> > > >
> > > > Based on those poll projections assuming uniform swing the Brexit party would get no seats in Wales despite polling second. Labour despite winning only 2% more than the BP would win 24 seats and the Tories with 6 percent less would win 9. Plaid and the LDs would win 5 and 2 seats each on barely half the BP's vote share.
> > > >
> > > > Not sure if our politics are broken but perhaps our electoral system is!
> > >
> > > Depends which polls you look at, some polls already have the Brexit Party on over 90 seats and once the BP overtake Labour as they already have done for the European elections Labour Leave seats will fall like skittles to Farage.
> > >
> > > Indeed the first Westminster poll to have the Brexit Party leading both the Tories and Labour may appear within a fortnight after the Brexit Party win the European elections
> >
> > A bit like this?
> > " In December 1981, nine months after the SDP's launch, a Gallup poll showed the party, in alliance with the Liberals, well ahead of Labour and the Tories."
> > https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/the-end-of-the-mad-hatters-1582122.html
>
> Indeed, I think at one time the Alliance had an opinion poll rating of more than 50%.
True but the SDP never won a national election as the Brexit Party will do on Thursday
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130732407127199744
> On Sunday results start at 2200, reported by LA. Is this correct?
I seem to remember counting starting earlier than that in 2014, but I might be wrong.
Because if it’s the latter all that the No Deal fanatics are doing is setting up a fresh betrayal narrative for the future. And how is that supposed to help?
What I would like to understand - and have asked repeatedly - from the No Dealers (not the Remainers) how exactly they think that trade and all the other things we are currently doing under the existing laws / agreements we will fall out of if there is No Deal will happen?
And answer comes there none. Is it too much to expect those wanting something to have a plan for how it is to come about?
Or is this just about belief and being grateful that it won’t be as bad as WW2 (copyright: Anne Widdecombe)?
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > Voting Brexit Party increases the chance of No Deal happening. But it also increases the chance of the government falling altogether.
> >
> >
> >
> > Now, one could argue that the current government doesn't deserve to continue (and that's not an unreasonable argument), but in that event a General Election moves from a possibility to a probability, and that will end up being a proxy second referendum.
> >
> >
> >
> > Be careful, in other words, what you wish for.
> >
> > I think increasing the chances of No Deal increases the chances of MPs passing a deal
> >
> > Labour have mostly maintained their unity/discipline when voting thus far. I would expect that to go out of the window after Thursday as the regional results show wild variations in Leave/Remain in different Labour areas. The overall losses will undermine Corbyn to the extent that Labour will be back in pre-GE17 mode.
>
> Not if turnout is circa 35% in an election widely viewed in a frivolous light.
I am sure some will try to characterise it that way.
In 2014 UKIP achieved just over 4 million votes. The following year, they retained 90% of them at the election.
The referendum happened, the vote dropped to <600k in 2017.
Assuming turnout in the region of 35% again, Brexit/UKIP is likely to poll anywhere between 5.5m and 6.5m votes this time.
If they retain 90% of them, that's a lot of lost votes for both Labour and the Tories.
That again assumes 35% turnout. If turnout was closer to 50%. It could be around 8 million votes.
Once a general election becomes about the SNP holding the balance of power, then what? The last time that was the prospect, England swung right.
Anecdotal and gut-feeling feedback great.
> https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130732404136718337
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130732407127199744
Steel workers? I thought what was hurting Scunthorpe was that we were still in the EU when they'd planned for us to be out and therefore not subject to the carbon tax.