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In Thursday's European elections it's Labour or the hard right. Don't let fear win here. pic.twitter.com/lBafANnlft
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> I wonder what proportion of votes have already been cast?
Commons briefing paper says that the proportion voting by post at recent GEs has been around 1-in-6. Could be that around a quarter of votes have already been cast.
Power in Britain is almost always won in the centre. There hasn't been a single hard right or left winner since the 1980's, and even then you can convincingly argue not only that Maggie had a very astute 'housewife's purse' approach to economics and ownership, she was also victorious against a very left-wing Labour Party. This isn't America, where, incidentally, Donald Trump wasn't running his own party but won the Republican ticket.
Let's assume the Tories do what they are bound to, and lurch to the right. And let's assume CHUK are over, by Heidi Allen's own admission just now on R4. And let's accept that the Greens will always be a touch too fringe and quirky for the mainstream. As for Labour, let's also acknowledge that it's difficult to see how the centrists are going to get rid of the hard left who now control the mechanisms of power.
That means the centre is for the taking by the LibDems. This time they have the opportunity to learn from the previous mistakes. They will hold their own, fight their own corner.
I predict that the really seismic change in British politics will not be on the right but the Liberal Democrats.
I genuinely think in the next 10-15 years there will be an outright Lib Dem government.
> I cant imagine anyone who was going to vote for The Brexit Party, UKIP, or Tommy Robinson will be persuaded not to by that tweet.
That's not the point. It's aimed at those who might have voted Green or LD as an anti Brexit protest vote.
What in Boris’s record suggests that he would be a good PM?
Was his time as a very senior Cabinet Minister, for instance, marked by any particular successes or achievements?
Why do people think that he has any of the qualities needed to be a good Prime Minister of the nation?
Or is his only real claim to the post the fact that he wants it and has wanted it for a very long time?
> Heseltine's point that the conditions are ripe for a centrist party will be one of the great prophetic statements of our time. You mark his words in 10 and 20 years time.
>
> Power in Britain is almost always won in the centre. There hasn't been a single hard right or left winner since the 1980's, and even then you can convincingly argue not only that Maggie had a very astute 'housewife's purse' approach to economics and ownership, she was also victorious against a very left-wing Labour Party. This isn't America, where, incidentally, Donald Trump wasn't running his own party but won the Republican ticket.
>
> Let's assume the Tories do what they are bound to, and lurch to the right. And let's assume CHUK are over, by Heidi Allen's own admission just now on R4. And let's accept that the Greens will always be a touch too fringe and quirky for the mainstream. As for Labour, let's also acknowledge that it's difficult to see how the centrists are going to get rid of the hard left who now control the mechanisms of power.
>
> That means the centre is for the taking by the LibDems. This time they have the opportunity to learn from the previous mistakes. They will hold their own, fight their own corner.
>
> I predict that the really seismic change in British politics will not be on the right but the Liberal Democrats.
>
> I genuinely think in the next 10-15 years there will be an outright Lib Dem government.
But the LibDems aren't a centre party either.
They are an extremist party for upper middle class metropolitans.
(Still voting Conservative if Corbyn's leading Labour. If the reds get themselves a sane leader it'd be interesting).
> I cant imagine anyone who was going to vote for The Brexit Party, UKIP, or Tommy Robinson will be persuaded not to by that tweet.
Indeed. There are minds to be changed if Labour were willing to try.
So it comes down to the fact well known to advertisers that generic ads promote the market leader and for Remainers that's definitely not Labour
What other people have done, which I think is quite pathetic and have criticised, is when TBP do well in a poll say "If they dont get this much at the election, it will be a failure", and when the polls are closer say "This shows they're not all that good"
> At least Labour are finally admitting that this election is a vote on Brexit. Their problem is that no one knows if Labour are pro Remain.
>
> So it comes down to the fact well known to advertisers that generic ads promote the market leader and for Remainers that's definitely not Labour
Something I've wondered is whether the parties are paying for truly "external" marketing & PR advice, or whether it all comes from a pool of "political communications" experts these days? Because it seems rather lacking in creativity - or even the basics - these days.
> An excellent Q&A with Katya Adler on Radio 5. on all questions EU. Why the BBC haven't put her on more often I can't understand. If we had we might not be where we are.
>
> She is an excellent journalist.
In my opinion the very best. She even makes a Radio 5 phone in sound informed
"The Lib Dems need to be very scrupulous about whom they choose as their next leader - that person could easily be running the country in the not too distant future. As for the Tories, it's astonishing to think that Theresa might be the last Conservative PM we see in our lifetimes, possibly ever."
..............................................................................................................
Unless you are intent on popping your clogs just before Theresa May resigns at Buck House then there will be another Conservative Prime Minister !! ..
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/19/letting-drug-dealers-prison-go-spa-breaks-criminally-stupid/
And while Boris parks his tanks on the Home Secretary's lawn, Javid wants to ban living in Syria, which is abroad and thus foreign.
Meanwhile our Foreign Secretary wants to double defence spending.
We have become used to thinking of Conservative voters as being almost monolithically Leave supporting, with only a small proportion of Remain holdouts, but the last electoral coalition to win the Conservatives a Commons majority was much more evenly split.
That's a lot of voters who could be open to voting for a rejuvenated Liberal Democrat Party.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum
> Heseltine's point that the conditions are ripe for a centrist party will be one of the great prophetic statements of our time. You mark his words in 10 and 20 years time.
>
> Power in Britain is almost always won in the centre. There hasn't been a single hard right or left winner since the 1980's, and even then you can convincingly argue not only that Maggie had a very astute 'housewife's purse' approach to economics and ownership, she was also victorious against a very left-wing Labour Party. This isn't America, where, incidentally, Donald Trump wasn't running his own party but won the Republican ticket.
>
> Let's assume the Tories do what they are bound to, and lurch to the right. And let's assume CHUK are over, by Heidi Allen's own admission just now on R4. And let's accept that the Greens will always be a touch too fringe and quirky for the mainstream. As for Labour, let's also acknowledge that it's difficult to see how the centrists are going to get rid of the hard left who now control the mechanisms of power.
>
> That means the centre is for the taking by the LibDems. This time they have the opportunity to learn from the previous mistakes. They will hold their own, fight their own corner.
>
> I predict that the really seismic change in British politics will not be on the right but the Liberal Democrats.
>
> I genuinely think in the next 10-15 years there will be an outright Lib Dem government.
Bizarre. The EU election has been entirely about voters punishing parties with a centre/compromise position on Brexit (LAB, CON) and rewarding those with an extreme position (TBP, LD, GREEN). Where on earth do you get an appetite for centrism from that?
> At least Labour are finally admitting that this election is a vote on Brexit. Their problem is that no one knows if Labour are pro Remain.
>
> So it comes down to the fact well known to advertisers that generic ads promote the market leader and for Remainers that's definitely not Labour
I do like your observations from the world of advertising Roger because that is something I'd never really thought about before. Generic ads promote the market Leader. Obvious
> > @Mysticrose said:
> > Heseltine's point that the conditions are ripe for a centrist party will be one of the great prophetic statements of our time. You mark his words in 10 and 20 years time.
> >
> > Power in Britain is almost always won in the centre. There hasn't been a single hard right or left winner since the 1980's, and even then you can convincingly argue not only that Maggie had a very astute 'housewife's purse' approach to economics and ownership, she was also victorious against a very left-wing Labour Party. This isn't America, where, incidentally, Donald Trump wasn't running his own party but won the Republican ticket.
> >
> > Let's assume the Tories do what they are bound to, and lurch to the right. And let's assume CHUK are over, by Heidi Allen's own admission just now on R4. And let's accept that the Greens will always be a touch too fringe and quirky for the mainstream. As for Labour, let's also acknowledge that it's difficult to see how the centrists are going to get rid of the hard left who now control the mechanisms of power.
> >
> > That means the centre is for the taking by the LibDems. This time they have the opportunity to learn from the previous mistakes. They will hold their own, fight their own corner.
> >
> > I predict that the really seismic change in British politics will not be on the right but the Liberal Democrats.
> >
> > I genuinely think in the next 10-15 years there will be an outright Lib Dem government.
>
> But the LibDems aren't a centre party either.
>
> They are an extremist party for upper middle class metropolitans.
Rural Aberdeenshire is not noted as a centre for the upper class and yet is a pretty strong area for the Liberal Democrats...
> An excellent Q&A with Katya Adler on Radio 5. on all questions EU. Why the BBC haven't put her on more often I can't understand. If we had we might not be where we are.
Katya is excellent and I agree
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0005br9
> > @Roger said:
> > At least Labour are finally admitting that this election is a vote on Brexit. Their problem is that no one knows if Labour are pro Remain.
> >
> > So it comes down to the fact well known to advertisers that generic ads promote the market leader and for Remainers that's definitely not Labour
>
> Something I've wondered is whether the parties are paying for truly "external" marketing & PR advice, or whether it all comes from a pool of "political communications" experts these days? Because it seems rather lacking in creativity - or even the basics - these days.
They tend to get people in the business who are supporters which is why the strategy doesn't have the depth of expertise you'd get from a full agency service. I've been told that well known agencies are not too interested in taking on this sort of business at the moment because of client conflicts for not much reward.
> The Lib Dems need to be very scrupulous about whom they choose as their next leader - that person could easily be running the country in the not too distant future. As for the Tories, it's astonishing to think that Theresa might be the last Conservative PM we see in our lifetimes, possibly ever.
I doubt it with a new leader and conservative pm in post by September
> Heseltine's point that the conditions are ripe for a centrist party will be one of the great prophetic statements of our time. You mark his words in 10 and 20 years time.
>
> Power in Britain is almost always won in the centre. There hasn't been a single hard right or left winner since the 1980's, and even then you can convincingly argue not only that Maggie had a very astute 'housewife's purse' approach to economics and ownership, she was also victorious against a very left-wing Labour Party. This isn't America, where, incidentally, Donald Trump wasn't running his own party but won the Republican ticket.
>
> Let's assume the Tories do what they are bound to, and lurch to the right. And let's assume CHUK are over, by Heidi Allen's own admission just now on R4. And let's accept that the Greens will always be a touch too fringe and quirky for the mainstream. As for Labour, let's also acknowledge that it's difficult to see how the centrists are going to get rid of the hard left who now control the mechanisms of power.
>
> That means the centre is for the taking by the LibDems. This time they have the opportunity to learn from the previous mistakes. They will hold their own, fight their own corner.
>
> I predict that the really seismic change in British politics will not be on the right but the Liberal Democrats.
>
> I genuinely think in the next 10-15 years there will be an outright Lib Dem government.
The problem with this is that the LDs are not a centrist party. In terms of economics the LDs may be centrist, but in terms of social issues, the LDs are on the extreme. If you think in terms of both economic issues and social issues, May's Tories are probably the nearest to the centre.
The LDs 2nd problem is that to win their 100th target seat (Poole) they would need just shy of a 25% swing.
I could see the LDs getting up to say 50 seats but the risk is they then have to go into coalition again with one of the big 2 and get punished.
FPT:-
What in Boris’s record suggests that he would be a good PM?
Was his time as a very senior Cabinet Minister, for instance, marked by any particular successes or achievements?
Why do people think that he has any of the qualities needed to be a good Prime Minister of the nation?
Or is his only real claim to the post the fact that he wants it and has wanted it for a very long time?
The guy is a clown and nothing else. I saw him on TV the other day and he even had his shirt tail out. The guy can't even dress himself properly! I don't see any quality in him that supports his desire to be PM - and I'm a life long Tory voter.
There are, incidentally, some very good documentaries on BBC radio about the internal politics of other European countries. I was listening to one the other evening about Greece, which was fascinating, even if a little old (made in 2012). I wish we had more of these reports on television. For all the discussion about Brexit, we simply don’t have enough reporting about what is really going in Europe. I am much more interested in that than in endless news about the US, to be honest.
If Brexit goes ahead, I expect we’ll get to hear even less from Europe, which will be a real shame.
Perhaps be grateful that she is slightly unappreciated.
> Heseltine's point that the conditions are ripe for a centrist party will be one of the great prophetic statements of our time. You mark his words in 10 and 20 years time.
>
> Power in Britain is almost always won in the centre. There hasn't been a single hard right or left winner since the 1980's, and even then you can convincingly argue not only that Maggie had a very astute 'housewife's purse' approach to economics and ownership, she was also victorious against a very left-wing Labour Party. This isn't America, where, incidentally, Donald Trump wasn't running his own party but won the Republican ticket.
>
> Let's assume the Tories do what they are bound to, and lurch to the right. And let's assume CHUK are over, by Heidi Allen's own admission just now on R4. And let's accept that the Greens will always be a touch too fringe and quirky for the mainstream. As for Labour, let's also acknowledge that it's difficult to see how the centrists are going to get rid of the hard left who now control the mechanisms of power.
>
> That means the centre is for the taking by the LibDems. This time they have the opportunity to learn from the previous mistakes. They will hold their own, fight their own corner.
>
> I predict that the really seismic change in British politics will not be on the right but the Liberal Democrats.
>
> I genuinely think in the next 10-15 years there will be an outright Lib Dem government.
guff
power can only be won in the centre if you keep your right\left wing on board at the same time.
broad churches can win and hold power , narrow cliques cant
In essence what matters is the make up of parliament and who wins the next election - and in theory a party could have a working majority on 35 even 30 per cent depending how the votes split across a myriad of parties.
And given how volatile public opinion is who can say what the future holds anyway - a year before the referendum one poll had remain ahead by 66 to 22 (a 44 percent lead).
Not everyone who votes for a pro remain party backs remain and vice versa.
> A little slip from Heseltine on GMB today saying the economy was doing better "than we had hoped". Sounds like a few on PB!
Oops!
If having full control over who lives and works in your country and decides that based on skills and qualifications not the colour of your passport is ‘bigoted’ then 85 per cent of the nations in the world must be bigoted on your logic!
> Heseltine's point that the conditions are ripe for a centrist party will be one of the great prophetic statements of our time. You mark his words in 10 and 20 years time.
>
> Power in Britain is almost always won in the centre. There hasn't been a single hard right or left winner since the 1980's, and even then you can convincingly argue not only that Maggie had a very astute 'housewife's purse' approach to economics and ownership, she was also victorious against a very left-wing Labour Party. This isn't America, where, incidentally, Donald Trump wasn't running his own party but won the Republican ticket.
>
> Let's assume the Tories do what they are bound to, and lurch to the right. And let's assume CHUK are over, by Heidi Allen's own admission just now on R4. And let's accept that the Greens will always be a touch too fringe and quirky for the mainstream. As for Labour, let's also acknowledge that it's difficult to see how the centrists are going to get rid of the hard left who now control the mechanisms of power.
>
> That means the centre is for the taking by the LibDems. This time they have the opportunity to learn from the previous mistakes. They will hold their own, fight their own corner.
>
> I predict that the really seismic change in British politics will not be on the right but the Liberal Democrats.
>
> I genuinely think in the next 10-15 years there will be an outright Lib Dem government.
I'm not too sure that is true. If you look at the consumer trends - and in media - it is not just politics which is going to the extremes. What is happening more is polarisation, the "Prada / Primark" phenomenon i.e. people either pay a lot of money or they buy very cheaply, but the middle gets absolutely squeezed (M&S etc). The same goes for TV - the "big" mass market shows (Corrie, Britain's Got Talent etc) are actually doing well as are the niche shows for the obsessed (GoT) but the shows that are in between are not.
I think, generally, consumers want a hard choice.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > An excellent Q&A with Katya Adler on Radio 5. on all questions EU. Why the BBC haven't put her on more often I can't understand. If we had we might not be where we are.
> In my opinion the very best. She even makes a Radio 5 phone in sound informed
>
> She is possibly the only good thing to come out of Brexit. Her reports on the news and some of the longer pieces she does for radio are always worth listening to.
> There are, incidentally, some very good documentaries on BBC radio about the internal politics of other European countries. I was listening to one the other evening about Greece, which was fascinating, even if a little old (made in 2012). I wish we had more of these reports on television. For all the discussion about Brexit, we simply don’t have enough reporting about what is really going in Europe. I am much more interested in that than in endless news about the US, to be honest.
>
> If Brexit goes ahead, I expect we’ll get to hear even less from Europe, which will be a real shame.
Much of the BBC's new and current affairs efforts have become a slightly upmarket version of clickbait.
The long and informative stuff tends to be hidden rather than promoted.
> Interesting that if you add The Brexit National Party voting intention with that of the Conservatives, who are largely (but not wholly in favour of Brexit) it comes to quite a lot less than the magic 50%. Hardly a ringing endorsement of crashing out without a deal.
>
> Except we gave a first past the post electoral system where the largest minority party runs the government.
>
> In essence what matters is the make up of parliament and who wins the next election - and in theory a party could have a working majority on 35 even 30 per cent depending how the votes split across a myriad of parties.
>
> And given how volatile public opinion is who can say what the future holds anyway - a year before the referendum one poll had remain ahead by 66 to 22 (a 44 percent lead).
>
> Not everyone who votes for a pro remain party backs remain and vice versa.
Our voting system doesn't even guarantee that the "largest minority" is said winner.
> > @Roger said:
> > An excellent Q&A with Katya Adler on Radio 5. on all questions EU. Why the BBC haven't put her on more often I can't understand. If we had we might not be where we are.
>
> Katya is excellent and I agree
Well she was on R4 reporting from Milan this morning. Two stations in the same morning isn't bad.
A pro-Brexit party which wants to disguise the fact.
Bit weird, to be honest.
Anti Jewish people are the last to be feared...
I can’t see Labours last minute desperate messages to stop the Remainers deserting working. Indeed any Labour Remainer watching yesterday’s dismal performance by Corbyn was even more confused and likely to become even more pissed off with the Brexit confusion.
> > @Brom said:
> > A little slip from Heseltine on GMB today saying the economy was doing better "than we had hoped". Sounds like a few on PB!
>
> Oops!
Does anybody watch GMB . I’d rather watch Peppa Pig !
Why would any pro-European vote for it?
> > @Mysticrose said:
> > Heseltine's point
> > .......
>
> The problem with this is that the LDs are not a centrist party. In terms of economics the LDs may be centrist, but in terms of social issues, the LDs are on the extreme. If you think in terms of both economic issues and social issues, May's Tories are probably the nearest to the centre.
>
> The LDs 2nd problem is that to win their 100th target seat (Poole) they would need just shy of a 25% swing.
>
> I could see the LDs getting up to say 50 seats but the risk is they then have to go into coalition again with one of the big 2 and get punished.
> @GarethoftheVale2 said:
> > @Mysticrose said:
> >
>
> The problem with this is that the LDs are not a centrist party. In terms of economics the LDs may be centrist, but in terms of social issues, the LDs are on the extreme. If you think in terms of both economic issues and social issues, May's Tories are probably the nearest to the centre.
>
> The LDs 2nd problem is that to win their 100th target seat (Poole) they would need just shy of a 25% swing.
>
> I could see the LDs getting up to say 50 seats but the risk is they then have to go into coalition again with one of the big 2 and get punished.
Does it rate that highly. They are not in 2nd and on 4K compared to 29K. However I think it is a mistake to look at the 2017 or 2015 position. One needs to look at 2010 or just before if a big recovery is on. Another good example is SW Surrey. Was a target seat and within 1K once, now LDs 28K behind and in 4th. If a big recovery on then places where they had big support are good territory. If not then a waste of time.
https://twitter.com/gmb/status/1130366623842484225?s=21
> Labour IS pro-Brexit.
>
> Why would any pro-European vote for it?
Exactly Vote Labour get Brexit .
No thanks . All Remainers need to avoid Labour . Send a message even clueless Corbyn can understand .
> Labour IS pro-Brexit.
>
> Why would any pro-European vote for it?
It's not though is it? The policy is muddled and the MPs and MEPs are predominantly remain. It is quite conceivable that those are are not obsessed by the issue but would like to remain would back Labour.
> I cant imagine anyone who was going to vote for The Brexit Party, UKIP, or Tommy Robinson will be persuaded not to by that tweet.
Agreed, and nor will it persuade any pro-Europeans to vote for it. So it really is a pointless exercise by Labour. If Labour wishes to position itself as a pro-European party, it has every opportunity to do so.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/19/pete-buttigieg-trump-attacks-grotesque-things-1334093
" ...“The tweets are — I don't care,” he said, triggering applause from the audience at Stevens High School in Claremont, N.H.
“It's a very effective way to command the attention of the media,” Buttigieg said. “I think that we need to make sure that we're changing the channel from this show that he's created. ... And I get it, look — it's mesmerizing and hard for anyone to look away. Me too. It is the nature of grotesque things that you can't look away.”
The comments and loud applause came during one of the more lively exchanges in the wide-ranging event, which also featured biographical footage of the mayor from Indiana. It underscored the approach Buttigieg has taken in dealing with Trump and Fox News, an approach that contrasts with some other Democratic presidential candidates...."
> > @_Anazina_ said:
> > Labour IS pro-Brexit.
> >
> > Why would any pro-European vote for it?
>
> It's not though is it? The policy is muddled and the MPs and MEPs are predominantly remain. It is quite conceivable that those are are not obsessed by the issue but would like to remain would back Labour.
Yes. It is. Its policy position is to leave the EU within a CU. A form of (fairly hard) Brexit.
> Heseltine's point that the conditions are ripe for a centrist party will be one of the great prophetic statements of our time. You mark his words in 10 and 20 years time.
>
> Power in Britain is almost always won in the centre. There hasn't been a single hard right or left winner since the 1980's, and even then you can convincingly argue not only that Maggie had a very astute 'housewife's purse' approach to economics and ownership, she was also victorious against a very left-wing Labour Party. This isn't America, where, incidentally, Donald Trump wasn't running his own party but won the Republican ticket.
>
> Let's assume the Tories do what they are bound to, and lurch to the right. And let's assume CHUK are over, by Heidi Allen's own admission just now on R4. And let's accept that the Greens will always be a touch too fringe and quirky for the mainstream. As for Labour, let's also acknowledge that it's difficult to see how the centrists are going to get rid of the hard left who now control the mechanisms of power.
>
> That means the centre is for the taking by the LibDems. This time they have the opportunity to learn from the previous mistakes. They will hold their own, fight their own corner.
>
> I predict that the really seismic change in British politics will not be on the right but the Liberal Democrats.
>
> I genuinely think in the next 10-15 years there will be an outright Lib Dem government.
The problem is that the Lib Dems are not a centre party. Indeed the bigger problem - as your post mentions with reference to Thatcher - is that what is viewed as centrist or extremist at any given time is not a fixed entity (excepting the views espousing violence or suppression of minorities).
All these things are fluid and a party can follow policies which might be viewed as extremist in one area whilst following policies which are viewed as centrist in others. Indeed the Labour party hold such a position now.
https://twitter.com/louiserawauthor/status/1128757018968363010?s=21
But there are few follow up reports on how Italy is coping with migrants arriving on its shores, what is happening on the French-Italian border, who is voting for the various parties and why etc. With the retirement of the excellent David Willey, we no longer get proper in-depth analysis. But rather gobbets of news, however good, which have the effect of either making it look as if the Continent is in the grip of Fascists and Nazis or understate the concerns and long-term trends which are leading to political and social changes.
So much media, so little explanation.
So the options are Conservative (in hock to the ERG), Labour (run by Momentum and Corbyn's 70s tribute act), the Brexit Party (single-issue party), the Greens (single-issue party), the SNP or Plaid Cymru (single-issue parties), and the Lib Dems.
Remind me again which ones are the broad churches and which ones are the narrow cliques?
Your child throws themselves on their back screaming and crying that they want the Grand Rapids Death Slide ride and nothing else will do whereas you had always and only promised them an Adventure Park.
> "Vote for us to get a non-bigoted Brexit" is an OK message, except it doesn't appeal to those that are bigots and those that don't want Brexit at all. Collectively these two groups make a large majority. Also it's not clear that Labour are offering Brexit, or want to.
Also it's not clear that Labour is not offering Brexit, or don't want to.
So, in fact, their m.o. for the last 2.5 years.
> Rural Aberdeenshire is not noted as a centre for the upper class and yet is a pretty strong area for the Liberal Democrats...
Hmm, I can certainly think of one member of the upper classes who has a residence on Royal Deeside, the clue being in the name. Doesn't have a vote of course..
If I promised my two-year old son that we would be going to an Adventure Park, and then we failed to go to an Adventure Park, I would not hear the end of it. For months. It would be the biggest betrayal of his life so far. There would regularly be tears before bed saying "daddy, you didn't take me to the 'venture park".
Yes, I might try to "move on" because I understand why it wasn't possible, but he doesn't. And although I know that the most important things in his life are really keeping him safe and fed and educated, as far as he's concerned, the most important things are Adventure Parks. Especially if they have dinosaurs.
It's almost an exact parallel. Down to the dinosaurs.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Roger said:
> > > An excellent Q&A with Katya Adler on Radio 5. on all questions EU. Why the BBC haven't put her on more often I can't understand. If we had we might not be where we are.
> >
> > Katya is excellent and I agree
>
> Well she was on R4 reporting from Milan this morning. Two stations in the same morning isn't bad.
Yes she is on various news items but not enough on the EU itself. She actually made the internal politics sound interesting. If we'd had the it explained better and more often over the last several years we wouldn't now have Farage cashing in on the ignorance of millions of voters who haven't the faintest idea what the EU is about.
And as for the MP angle, it is the Leave MPs who brattishly continue to demand the Grand Rapids Death Slide.
> https://twitter.com/jmpsimor/status/1130240684647231488
>
>
>
> I'm not sure this is a reassuring analogy.
>
> If I promised my two-year old son that we would be going to an Adventure Park, and then we failed to go to an Adventure Park, I would not hear the end of it. For months. It would be the biggest betrayal of his life so far. There would regularly be tears before bed saying "daddy, you didn't take me to the 'venture park".
>
> Yes, I might try to "move on" because I understand why it wasn't possible, but he doesn't. And although I know that the most important things in his life are really keeping him safe and fed and educated, as far as he's concerned, the most important things are Adventure Parks. Especially if they have dinosaurs.
>
> It's almost an exact parallel. Down to the dinosaurs.
Has the adventure park closed down or is it merely shut for the day? If the latter you go again another day, if the former then you try and find a similar adventure park that might not be as good as the original adventure park but will but far better than not going at all.
> Someone's probably already pointed this out, but in December 1981, there was a Gallup poll with Con+Lab under 50%
>
> Gallup/Telegraph 1981-12-14
> Con: 23
> Lab: 23.5
> Alliance: 50.5
>
> That is, however, the only poll I can find since WW2 where this has happened before
There have been a few other polls recently that have had Con+Lab below 50%, the first of which was YouGov on 8-9 May, which had both Con and Lab on 24, and the most extreme of which was the ComRes which had Con on 19 and Lab on 27: the combined total therefore being 46 and beating the 1981 poll as the lowest combined share ever.
Mike would have been right if he'd reversed the descriptions, and said that Con+Lab being under 50% was extraordinary, and four parties being within six points was completely unprecedented.
I assume that the previous closest was also set earlier this month, where YouGov reported a 9-point gap between Lab and Con on 25, and LD on 16 but haven't checked the records.
However, prior to 2010 there weren't really any occasions when there've been four parties in serious contention.
- The brief Green blip in the late 1980s coincided with (and probably because of) extreme LD weakness.
- the ComRes poll of 31/5/09 was the only one in the Expenses Scandal era that reported a Con share of less than 35%, and while Others (beyond Con/Lab/LD) was 30%, this was scattered, with the Greens top-polling with only 8% ahead of UKIP on 7%: a range of 22%.
- The period of UKIP strength during Cameron's time as PM occurred after the Lib Dem collapse, so either one or both tended to be in single figures. The smallest leading vote share I can find is 29% in an Ashcroft poll of Jan 2010, producing a range of 20% (with the LDs fourth on 9%). There was also a ComRes poll with a range of 20, from 32-12, in Dec 2009.
- Until the recent LD revival and Brexit Party foundation, there were no third or fourth parties of strength, even though one or both main parties have been weak through virtually the whole of May's premiership.
> > @_Anazina_ said:
> > Labour IS pro-Brexit.
> >
> > Why would any pro-European vote for it?
>
> Exactly Vote Labour get Brexit .
>
> No thanks . All Remainers need to avoid Labour . Send a message even clueless Corbyn can understand .
____________________
Calling all pro-EU voters:
To increase the number of pro-EU MEPs in your region, consult
www.remainvoter.com.
'PR' shouldn't force us to vote tactically. But this was Labour's version of 'PR' and so it's not proportional!
> > @Mysticrose said:
> > Heseltine's point that the conditions are ripe for a centrist party will be one of the great prophetic statements of our time. You mark his words in 10 and 20 years time.
> >
> > Power in Britain is almost always won in the centre. There hasn't been a single hard right or left winner since the 1980's, and even then you can convincingly argue not only that Maggie had a very astute 'housewife's purse' approach to economics and ownership, she was also victorious against a very left-wing Labour Party. This isn't America, where, incidentally, Donald Trump wasn't running his own party but won the Republican ticket.
> >
> > Let's assume the Tories do what they are bound to, and lurch to the right. And let's assume CHUK are over, by Heidi Allen's own admission just now on R4. And let's accept that the Greens will always be a touch too fringe and quirky for the mainstream. As for Labour, let's also acknowledge that it's difficult to see how the centrists are going to get rid of the hard left who now control the mechanisms of power.
> >
> > That means the centre is for the taking by the LibDems. This time they have the opportunity to learn from the previous mistakes. They will hold their own, fight their own corner.
> >
> > I predict that the really seismic change in British politics will not be on the right but the Liberal Democrats.
> >
> > I genuinely think in the next 10-15 years there will be an outright Lib Dem government.
>
> The problem with this is that the LDs are not a centrist party. In terms of economics the LDs may be centrist, but in terms of social issues, the LDs are on the extreme. If you think in terms of both economic issues and social issues, May's Tories are probably the nearest to the centre.
>
> The LDs 2nd problem is that to win their 100th target seat (Poole) they would need just shy of a 25% swing.
>
> I could see the LDs getting up to say 50 seats but the risk is they then have to go into coalition again with one of the big 2 and get punished.
The Lib Dems are also notably on the extreme with regard to Europe, and moving further that way. Do they still support Euro membership?
There is a space for a centrist party but I don't think it can have any success until the firestorm of Brexit has blown itself out. Until then, the threat of one extreme will push voters worried by it to the other, not to the centre.
> https://twitter.com/jmpsimor/status/1130240684647231488
The good news is that Ms Simor has had the courage of her convictions and is standing as a candidate on Thursday. So we will soon know what the public make of her analogies.
> > @Mysticrose said:
> > Heseltine's point that the conditions are ripe for a centrist party will be one of the great prophetic statements of our time. You mark his words in 10 and 20 years time.
> >
> > Power in Britain is almost always won in the centre. There hasn't been a single hard right or left winner since the 1980's, and even then you can convincingly argue not only that Maggie had a very astute 'housewife's purse' approach to economics and ownership, she was also victorious against a very left-wing Labour Party. This isn't America, where, incidentally, Donald Trump wasn't running his own party but won the Republican ticket.
> >
> > Let's assume the Tories do what they are bound to, and lurch to the right. And let's assume CHUK are over, by Heidi Allen's own admission just now on R4. And let's accept that the Greens will always be a touch too fringe and quirky for the mainstream. As for Labour, let's also acknowledge that it's difficult to see how the centrists are going to get rid of the hard left who now control the mechanisms of power.
> >
> > That means the centre is for the taking by the LibDems. This time they have the opportunity to learn from the previous mistakes. They will hold their own, fight their own corner.
> >
> > I predict that the really seismic change in British politics will not be on the right but the Liberal Democrats.
> >
> > I genuinely think in the next 10-15 years there will be an outright Lib Dem government.
>
> guff
>
> power can only be won in the centre if you keep your right\left wing on board at the same time.
>
> broad churches can win and hold power , narrow cliques cant
If that Broad Church holds the centre left, centre and centre right, then why not?
> > @Cicero said:
> > Rural Aberdeenshire is not noted as a centre for the upper class and yet is a pretty strong area for the Liberal Democrats...
>
> Hmm, I can certainly think of one member of the upper classes who has a residence on Royal Deeside, the clue being in the name. Doesn't have a vote of course..
She probably got a letter from the SNP anyway. It will have been addressed to a Mrs Ivy Trellis, Balmoral
https://twitter.com/dannyalexander/status/1130370638340939777
But there is some satisfaction in seeing Labour's lazy "But the coalition" and "but tuition fees" attacks on the Lib Dems falling flat. They've had it easy and got too complacent. If this forces them to sharpen their game, then good. They need a mighty kick.
> Some moob action. These lads look like they've put austerity behind them.
>
> https://twitter.com/dannyalexander/status/1130370638340939777
>
>
That made me laugh!
> > @Alanbrooke said:
> > > @Mysticrose said:
> > > Heseltine's point that the conditions are ripe for a centrist party will be one of the great prophetic statements of our time. You mark his words in 10 and 20 years time.
> > >
> > > Power in Britain is almost always won in the centre. There hasn't been a single hard right or left winner since the 1980's, and even then you can convincingly argue not only that Maggie had a very astute 'housewife's purse' approach to economics and ownership, she was also victorious against a very left-wing Labour Party. This isn't America, where, incidentally, Donald Trump wasn't running his own party but won the Republican ticket.
> > >
> > > Let's assume the Tories do what they are bound to, and lurch to the right. And let's assume CHUK are over, by Heidi Allen's own admission just now on R4. And let's accept that the Greens will always be a touch too fringe and quirky for the mainstream. As for Labour, let's also acknowledge that it's difficult to see how the centrists are going to get rid of the hard left who now control the mechanisms of power.
> > >
> > > That means the centre is for the taking by the LibDems. This time they have the opportunity to learn from the previous mistakes. They will hold their own, fight their own corner.
> > >
> > > I predict that the really seismic change in British politics will not be on the right but the Liberal Democrats.
> > >
> > > I genuinely think in the next 10-15 years there will be an outright Lib Dem government.
> >
> > guff
> >
> > power can only be won in the centre if you keep your right\left wing on board at the same time.
> >
> > broad churches can win and hold power , narrow cliques cant
>
> If that Broad Church holds the centre left, centre and centre right, then why not?
Who will be the charismatic leader of the Lib Dems that achieves this?
> She probably got a letter from the SNP anyway. It will have been addressed to a Mrs Ivy Trellis, Balmoral
And doubtless one from the Ruth Davidson party. After asking her loyal retainers to vote SCon as the only way to stop Indy ref II, Brenda is gonna be a tad disappointed.
> With respect to the John Harris article linked to on the previous thread, it's interesting to go back to the Ipsos Mori post-referendum "How Britain Voted" opinion poll. This had Conservative voters at the 2015 general election voting Remain 41% - 59% Leave.
>
> We have become used to thinking of Conservative voters as being almost monolithically Leave supporting, with only a small proportion of Remain holdouts, but the last electoral coalition to win the Conservatives a Commons majority was much more evenly split.
>
> That's a lot of voters who could be open to voting for a rejuvenated Liberal Democrat Party.
>
> https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum
I will be voting LibDem on Thursday, and encouraging anyone I can to do so. The Conservative Party has a tin ear, like its current leader. It needs a message that ignoring a large part of your electorate, and continuously insulting them, even though they might be a minority, is foolish indeed.
A few weeks ago CUK would have been in the running too, but I'd have needed to (a) feel they had a chance and (b) see some actual policies (other than 2nd ref) to persuade my vote
Given the cast iron nature of the arguments against brexit, it is amazing what crap ones people think it useful to advance.
And get a load of Dr Raw's own appearance and dress sense.
> I think a few people were refusing to believe it wasn’t Farage walking with the National Front in a photo from the 80s the other day...
>
> https://twitter.com/louiserawauthor/status/1128757018968363010
Whether it is him or not is not as important as the fact that there is plenty of evidence that suggest he voiced racist views. I imagine few of his admirers will be worried though. Birds of a feather and all that.